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201  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement, police shooting in MN, cop identified on: July 08, 2016, 10:12:40 AM
Jeronimo Yanez
Presumed Hispanic ethnicity...?
(Photos: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/jeronimo-yanez-identified-shot-philando-castile-article-1.2703430)
Young, on the force 4 years, married with one child.
First police shooting in the department in 30 years.  An epidemic?

It is hard to take the police side of this when we are not told the police side of this.

Our governor says it was race.  It wouldn't have happened if Castile wasn't black.  What happened?  What wouldn't have happened?  The officer knew there was a woman and child also in the car.  Either the officer is completely nuts or there is more to this story.
202  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / #1 cause of death of young black me is , , , young black men on: July 08, 2016, 09:46:45 AM
Number one cause of death of young black men, 15-34?

Murder by young black men, 15-34.
203  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Pathological Science on: July 08, 2016, 09:11:16 AM
And every ill now to man, the world is now due to global warming now know as climate change one of our biggest industries to make a fortune from.  Just ask Al when he is not chasing massage therapists around a cubicle like a wolf in heat.

Warming temps in Antarctica cause more snowfall.  But not elsewhere?  Warming doesn't cause more melting too?
https://www.skepticalscience.com/Record-snowfall-disproves-global-warming.htm

But snow cover mitigates warming trend.

Antarctic Ice hits new record maximum:
https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum

The area of North America covered in snow has increased in the last 30 years.  Who knew?

https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/snow-ice/snow-cover.html

You heard about this where else, NY Times, MSNBC, nowhere??

CO2 emissions are continuous.  Warming is not.  Is there something else going on here?
Not just the science and the media are biased, google search results too!

The "ever-thickening blanket wrapped around the planet" consists of CO2 levels of one part per 2500, a 0.0004 concentration of atmospheric CO2, just slightly above the minimum in earth's history. 

If CO2 levels were falling continuously instead, plant life, and eventually all life, would cease to exist.
204  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Cop Killings of Blacks down 75% in 45 years; black families, Larry Elder on: July 08, 2016, 08:58:32 AM
Larry Elder: Cop killings of blacks are DOWN 75% in 45 yrs. Of 965 people killed by cops 2015, less than 4% were white cop/unarmed black male.

President Obama, "children who grow up without a father are five times more likely to live in poverty and commit crime"
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2008/jun/23/barack-obama/statistics-dont-lie-in-this-case/

72% of black kids raised w/o dads.
http://atlantablackstar.com/2012/12/23/72-percent-of-african-american-children-are-raised-in-single-parent-homes/
http://www.theroot.com/articles/culture/2010/11/72_percent_of_africanamerican_children_born_to_unwed_mothers/

Doug says:  This is a direct result of the 'war on poverty' programs that put a disincentive on the responsibility of Dads in families susceptible to these programs to marry and stay and support and raise their children.

    * 63 percent of youth suicides are from fatherless homes
    * 90 percent of all homeless and runaway children are from fatherless homes
    * 71 percent of all high school dropouts come from fatherless homes
    * 75 percent of all adolescent patients in chemical-abuse centers come from fatherless homes
    * 85 percent of all youths in prison come from fatherless homes
http://www.children-ourinvestment.org/
205  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement - shot in Dallas on: July 08, 2016, 08:26:29 AM
(Am I in the right thread?)
12 shot?
Video at this Dallas Morning News link:  (I'm not going to watch it.
http://beta.dallasnews.com/news/crime/2016/07/07/witnesses-caught-chaos-dallas-shooting

My first thought, is this what the inciters had in mind?  (I don't know anything yet about who did this shooting or what motivated them.)

Besides the obvious wrongfulness of this carnage, as stated in the previous post, weakening the police force isn't helping the communities that are having the problems.

Thinking also of radical mosques, we are going to have to make distinctions between protected free speech and the inciting of violence.  Again, I don't know anything yet about who did this shooting or what motivated them, but I know rhetoric that incites this kind of thing.  In Minneapolis, "peaceful marches" were chanting, cops are pigs, fry them like bacon.  Our President was backing the protesters, not the police.
206  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Hillbillary Clintons, Iowahawk: First FBI investigation in history... on: July 08, 2016, 07:49:36 AM
 Iowahawk:

Possibly the first FBI investigation in history where the FBI director had to testify under oath and the target didn't.

https://twitter.com/iowahawkblog/status/751125019116253184
207  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement, police shooting in MN yesterday, Philando Castile on: July 07, 2016, 08:16:19 PM
Tail light out, routine traffic stop.  The victim was a concealed carry holder as I understand it and was armed.  The police knew that as they approach the car.  He wanted to get his ID out for the cop.  Was told to stop.  Kept reaching in.  Police shot him 4 times, killed him.  

It would seem to me that a) we don't have all the facts right here, and b) both of these people were horribly wrong in their actions.

It seems silly, but on a traffic stop in this day and age, I don't reach for my wallet without informing the cop exactly what I intend to do and getting the go-ahead.

Why shot at all and why four times?  Sounds like he had an automatic weapon and couldn't stop it once he pulled the trigger.  Wouldn't one shot in the arm and re-assess make more sense?  We are missing something here.

As it would happen, the deceased is black.  Minnesota court records show Castile has been found guilty of 31 misdemeanors and petty misdemeanors.  

http://www.startribune.com/philando-castile-complete-star-tribune-coverage/385854171/
208  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Rasmussen: 54% thought Hillary should have been indicted on: July 07, 2016, 07:50:45 PM
"Rasmussen: 54% thought Hillary should have been indicted"

And when you subtract the 40 % who love her because she is a Democrat you have 54 % to 6 % who are either right or independent who think she should have been indicted.

The Leftists of course know she should have been they will just never say it. 

Who knows?  I think the 54% include the people who love her and will vote for her anyway.

My centrist friends always say they vote for the person, not th party.  As I told my liberal cousin who doesn't like Hillary but will most certainly vote for her, I vote for the direction of the country, not the person.  Hillary is disgusting and despicable, but if you are a leftist liberal, she is all you have left.
209  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: is Iraq better off with or without Saddam? on: July 07, 2016, 07:44:15 PM
So is Iraq better off with or without Saddam?  Either way the people are screwed if you ask me.  If the left thinks that the second Iraq war was a mistake then they have to accept that they think Iraqis were better off with him.  Or they are saying they give a damn about them and that it was just bad to remove Saddam for us.  Trump was right in saying that there would be no ISIS , at least in Iraq if Saddam was still there.  He did not say he loved Saddam.  Just that Saddam would not have put up with ISIS like we do:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/06/opinions/trump-comments-on-saddam-opinion-bergen/

Saddam would be nuclear by now.  For me, enough said.  And then Iran next.  And we would be safer?  Or that doesn't affect us?  Saddam crushed rivals but gave plenty of support to terrorists and terrorism.  He paid the families of Palestinian suicide bombers.  The bombers of the first attack on the World Trade Center traveled on Iraqi passports.  Saddam's state newspaper cryptically warned with glee of the Sept 11 2001 attacks 2 months before they occurred.  Saddam opposed terrorism?  That's bullshit.

Saddam or ISIS is a false choice.  We had both out at great cost before we surrendered and abandoned our hard-fought victories in Iraq.  THAT is the policy decision to question.

Take Trump at his word and he would have left Saddam in power.  Not loved him but would have left him in power, developing weapons, aiding and harboring terrorists, oppressing 33 million of his own, gassing the Kurds and with a history of attacking four of his neighbors, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi and Israel, plus shooting at US planes on UN missions. 

I don't follow his logic.
210  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: July 07, 2016, 07:18:02 PM
Did not know about Pence's congressional background; still favor Newt though.  Inter alia, Newt knows the Clintons well, and is well positioned to remind people of how Bill used to say what Donald says now.

Yes, Newt would be an interesting pick.  He can call out both Clintons on what worked and what didn't during the Bill Clinton administration, and why does Hillary now oppose all the policies that worked then?

Newt is 73, would make it two white guys over 70 on the ticket, right while we are losing the youth vote.  Mike Pence is only 57 but also white haired, makes roughly the same appearance.  Trump is cognizant of appearances but I don't know who can change that appearance and is strong enough and willing to help him.
211  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement down, violent crime up in Baltimore, other cities on: July 07, 2016, 06:41:36 PM
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/baltimore-saw-steep-fall-police-numbers-murder-rate-050511229.html

The number of uniformed officers in Baltimore fell 6.1 percent last year.  The fall in 2015 was the biggest decline in police numbers among nine comparably-sized U.S. cities reviewed by Reuters.

Baltimore saw a 63 percent surge in homicides last year, with 344 people slain. 

320 (93%) of the victims were black.
http://data.baltimoresun.com/news/police/homicides/index.php?show_results=UPDATE+MAP&range=2015&district=all&zipcode=All&cause=all&age=all&gender=all&race=black&article=all

Of 45 Homicides in July 2015 in Baltimore, Not One Involved a White Suspect or White Victim

Black lives matter?
212  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Troubling gaps in the releases of Hillary Clinton's work related emails on: July 07, 2016, 05:19:06 PM
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/hillary-clinton-missing-emails-secretary-state-department-personal-server-investigation-fbi-214016

Among the troubling gaps is the time around her controversial approval of the purchase American nuclear assets by Russia.

"There are more mentions of LeBron James, yoga and NBC’s Saturday Night Live than the Russian Nuclear Agency in Clinton’s emails deemed official.”

(Peter Schweizer is the author of Clinton Cash)

213  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump, Mike Pence for VP? on: July 07, 2016, 05:10:15 PM
I predicted it would be John Kasich to help Trump get elected but a lot of possible choices are declining.

CONSERVATIVES RALLY AROUND MIKE PENCE FOR VICE PRESIDENT

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/07/conservatives-rally-around-mike-pence-for-vice-president.php

With Ernst apparently off the list, whom do conservatives favor?

In my view, Tom Cotton would be a great choice, assuming he’s willing. However, many conservatives seem to be rallying around Indiana Gov. Mike Pence.

In fact, when Ernst withdrew, she suggested Pence should get the VP nod. She told Politico:

I will admit that I am a Mike Pence fan. He is so well-rounded, served as a governor and I think he’s a great conservative. So I don’t think he could go wrong.

Jeff Roe, the manager of Ted Cruz’s presidential campaign, also raves about Pence. Roe said of Pence:

I think he’d be fabulous. He’d be a rudder on a somewhat erratic campaign and he would have the right balance of being a full-spectrum conservative, having executive experience and legislative experience. He’s one of the best choices I’ve heard mentioned.

Trump has said he would like a running mate who knows his way around Capitol Hill. Pence served for ten years in the U.S. House, including a stint as chairman of the House Republican Conference.

214  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Rasmussen: 54% thought Hillary should have been indicted on: July 07, 2016, 05:04:15 PM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/july_2016/most_disagree_with_decision_not_to_indict_clinton
215  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Trey Gowdy's cross of FBI Director Comey on: July 07, 2016, 04:48:27 PM

Wow.
216  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Pathological Science, Antarctic Ice on: July 07, 2016, 04:25:23 PM
We kept hearing how the antarctic ice is melting (maybe it is in the West) but much less about how it is expanding in the East.  The net effect was as far as i was able to read kept in the dark .  Apparently the net is that Antarctic ice is expanding:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2016/0706/Scientists-may-have-solved-a-mystery-Why-is-Antarctic-sea-ice-growing

Arctic ice is (was) contracting because of global warming.  Antarctic ice is expanding because of global warming.  

The oceans are rising because of the (formerly) melting Arctic ice.  The only ocean not rising is the Arctic Ocean.

Human caused global warming is from the release of CO2 into the atmosphere - CO2 that naturally came from the atmosphere.

Liberals are (were) concerned about the black teenage unemployment rate.  Minimum wage laws (and open border policies) worsen the black teenage employment rate.

Black lives matter is a great liberal cause.  An innocent black baby is four times more likely to be aborted than a white baby.  Whatever.

Liberalism is not really a deep or consistent thought experiment.
217  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The war on the rule of law on: July 07, 2016, 08:07:39 AM
We might have to re-name this thread, there is no rule of law.
218  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Somali threats in MN, al Qaida and ISIS in America on: July 07, 2016, 08:06:04 AM
Strange, I thought the Somalis were famous for their friendliness and civility. Members of the religion of peace as well!

They are bout as peaceful as the 911 hijackers on Sept 10, and on Sept 11.  The radical ones look a lot like the peaceful ones - right before they blow you up.

Is DFL Minnesota going to prosecute Muslim rape victims - or reject Sharia Law?  Can't we all just learn to honor and accept the local customs that our new neighbors bring?

How did these savages get citizenship or safe haven?  Liberals wondering where Trump and Brexit came from should ask themselves that?

"No hate-crime charges are apparently being considered by either the Minnesota authorities or the Obama Justice Department headed by Loretta Lynch."    - for resisting Muslim rape?

Shard values:  The Muslims, gays and Jews in Minneapolis have all found a political home in the Democratic-Farmer-Labor party.  Rapists and rape victims, murderers and the murdered, wealthy elites and the free shit crowd, can't we all just get along?  The farmer and labor parts of that old coalition are drifting over to the R's.
219  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Janet Yellen at Radcliffe Day on: July 01, 2016, 09:27:53 AM
A version of this post was published by HotGas.Net:
https://www.hotgas.net/2016/06/janet-yellen-fed-banking-monetary-policy/#disqus_thread
Clicks and comments welcome there as well.

I watched a Janet Yellen video called 'an hour of your life you will never get back' for you in case you don't want to see it:
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2016/06/yellen-at-radcliffe.html
http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/05/janet-yellen-honored-by-radcliffe-ponders-economy/

Janet Yellen is the most powerful woman in the world.  Decisions she makes affect your life.  If you include the long introductions and the advice to younger people, hers is an inspiring story of how she got to where she is and loves her field and her work.  She believes government, in this case The Fed, can alleviate the pain caused by the ups and downs of the private sector.  Something is upside down there, but let's run with it for a moment.

If you take the other side of it as I do, it is a bit creepy how this inbred group of elites has so much control over our lives.  The questioner is an economist I like, Greg Mankiw, Chair of the Economics Department at Harvard.  In the audience are Ben Bernanke, Loretta Lynch and others, a powerful group.  It is amazing how many of the Fed people, Wall Street people, Supreme Court Justices, Presidents, all went to the same schools.  Yellen went to both Harvard and Yale.  So did George Bush.  Bernanke went to Harvard.  Chief Justice John Roberts has two degrees from Harvard, so does Merrick Garland, 3 current justices went to Yale, Crafty went to Columbia, Obama Harvard, Hillary Yale, Trump Wharton and George Will Princeton.  Dorothy from Kansas was the last person of power to come from the heartland.  

Bernanke wrote a book on the Great Recession (he helped cause) and Yellen praised him for his work on that.  Showing up for the speech helps to keep the group in mutual back patting mode.  I was patiently listening for the negatives because I believe this economy is horribly under-performing and that the Fed is enabling the fiscal insanity of the other two branches. (Whoops, the Fed is not the third branch of government even thought the judiciary is now just a rubber stamp of elected liberalism.)

Zero interest rates are bad for the economy.  No one (but our Crafty) ever seems to say that.  We have a zero savings rate because of it; that didn't come up in the talk.  Why are interest rates still at roughly zero?  Because the economy is still too weak and too fragile to handle anything near a normal cost of money - in their own opinion - and the Fed has access and control of the most wide ranging and detailed economic information anywhere on the planet.  Why is the economy too weak and too fragile to handle real or normal, balanced, market interest rates?  Bad policies that are not being addressed by anything in her talk.  (See below.)

Of the financial collapse, Yellen says, "we didn't see it coming".  No they didn't.  She was on the forefront of warning about the housing bubble.  "We saw trees".  But they didn't see the forest by their own admission.  (So we put her in charge.)  She is quite humble but eager to brag about her predecessor and the team (she was head of the San Francisco Fed, 12th district).  The team responded fast and creatively and courageously and so on.  There should be a movie about it, starring some handsome young actor as Ben Bernanke.)  Not a word about how the Fed helped cause it!

So many great things are going on in our limping economy, she hardly had time to talk about the bad things.  We grew 14 million jobs since the bottom (while the population increased by more than that).  Maybe I have too much math and physics background, but waves are measured peak to peak or trough to trough, but those types of measure make this 'recovery' look like 8 wasted years we will never get back.  Unemployment (as measured dishonestly) dropped from 10% to 5%, now considered full employment [by others].  No mention of the weakness in that until pressed.

On the bad side, the number of people working part time who would like to be working full time is "unusually high", in the 8th year of the 'recovery'.

Not much improvement in wages (understatement of the decade), which is "suggestive of slack in the labor market", contradicting the unemployment improvement claim above.

Growth in "output" (GDP) is "remarkably slow".  

Productivity growth is VERY slow, 1/2% per year, "miserably slow", "a serious and negative development".
(I would like to come back to that since she didn't.)

Inflation is below the 2% target (the target is a crime in itself) due to the plunge in oil prices (nothing to do with inflation) and the appreciation of the dollar (all to do with failure in the world around us).

She sees currently weak growth picking up (greener grass just over that fence).  They intend to increase the "overnight lending rate" "gradually and cautiously" over the next few months (assuming growth picks up and it won't), and up from near zero to 3-3.25% within 5-7 years (assuming constant, uninterrupted growth, which also won't possibly happen).

She opposes negative interest rate policy for the "negative repercussions" (she is right on that) and agrees that zero interest rate policy limits the scope of policies the Fed has to address new problems and weaknesses that arise.  (Right again even though that is what they are doing.)  The Fed invented other tools in the face of this, "longer term asset purchases" that people like Yellen, Grannis and Wesbury don't like to call printing money (what did they purchase them with, thin air?).

As a true liberal leftist, she also believes in "greater latitude in fiscal policy" as a tool to address future downturns and weakness, as if public investment had the affect of private investment and as if $19 trillion in debt isn't already causing a burden and limiting the scope of future policy decisions.
--------------------------------
My own comments continued:

What did not come up at all are the underlying causes of the current malaise, over-taxation and over-regulation.

40% of people in their 20s with a college degree do not work in a job requiring a college degree.  100 million adults don't work at all.  Disability and food stamp recipient needs have skyrocketed DURING THIS 'RECOVERY' (not a recovery).  Wage growth is zero; productivity growth is zero; WHY?

Wages are tied to productivity growth and the demand for labor which is tied really to entrepreneurial and small business activities which are constrained (or crushed) by excessive taxes and regulations.

Productivity growth is tied to capital investment.  Think of digging a hole or a ditch with a broken shovel, a clean sharp shovel with a longer handle, a bobcat or a caterpillar.  Productivity goes up with better tools that cost money, in some cases lots of money, which means there has to be a good long term outlook, favorable economic conditions and a good, long term, AFTER TAX return realistically expected on that investment.  And no big threat that it will soon be closed or confiscated by the government.  This investment is not happening, Janet Yellen is telling us, though she is either too polite of too ignorant to criticize the administration and the congress for strangling our formerly vibrant private sector.

Productivity growth alone doesn't create higher wages, we need increased output growth too and some control over the supply of new cheap labor coming in.  Exactly the opposite of our current economic policies that stifle and punish capital investment, leave the borders open and offer programs for able people to not work in lieu of real job creation.  If you are the most powerful woman in the world and Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, get up on your bully pulpit and shout it!  Instead Janet Yellen is mostly silent.

The new economic normal is for all governments have all their hands around all the throats of those who produce, and do so with the precise bureaucratic expertise that they know just how hard they can squeeze without killing us.  Good luck if you believe that!  We vote to give them that power and we keep  voting to increase that power, to keep us moving in the wrong direction, running out of tools to keep mitigating it.  Soon it will be $20 trillion in debt and more than half the people not working at all.  What could possibly go wrong?
220  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Is this not at the least, very unethical? on: June 29, 2016, 08:44:32 PM
During a criminal investigation of his wife.
ttp://www.abc15.com/news/region-phoenix-metro/central-phoenix/loretta-lynch-bill-clinton-meet-privately-in-phoenix

The top law enforcement officer in the land met with a discredited, disbarred former lawyer.  Which one is more powerful?

The contents of their conversation were FAR worse than what we imagine in our worst case scenarios.

Bill refuses to use email being careful to not put things like this meeting in writing, and avoiding witnesses for deniability.  Ms. Lynch may want to retain a food taster down the road.
221  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Economics, A fiscal and monetary dialogue with Walter Heller and Milton Friedman on: June 28, 2016, 11:38:49 AM
One more economics post for today - the previous one is on the Monetary thread.

Walter Heller was my Econ professor at U of MN.  He was chief economic adviser to Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, author of the Kennedy tax cuts, the war on poverty and part of the Marshall Plan.  A Keynesian.  Milton Friedman hopefully needs no introduction.  A Monetarist.  They each make their case and respond to each other:

https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/meltzer/monetary_fiscal_friedman_1969.pdf  80 pages plus glossary etc.
222  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Money, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Janet Yellen at Radcliffe Day on: June 28, 2016, 10:02:38 AM
I watched a Janet Yellen video called 'an hour of your life you will never get back' for you in case you don't want to see it:
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2016/06/yellen-at-radcliffe.html
http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/05/janet-yellen-honored-by-radcliffe-ponders-economy/

Janet Yellen is the most powerful woman in the world.  Decisions she makes affect your life.  If you include the long introductions and the advice to younger people, hers is an inspiring story of how she got to where she is and loves her field and her work.  She believes government, in this case The Fed, can alleviate the pain caused by the ups and downs of the private sector.  Something is upside down there, but let's run with it for a moment.

If you take the other side of it as I do, it is a bit creepy how this inbred group of elites has so much control over our lives.  The questioner is an economist I like, Greg Mankiw, Chair of the Economics Department at Harvard.  In the audience are Ben Bernanke, Loretta Lynch and others, a powerful group.  It is amazing how many of the Fed people, Wall Street people, Supreme Court Justices, Presidents, all went to the same schools.  Yellen went to both Harvard and Yale.  So did George Bush.  Bernanke went to Harvard.  Chief Justice John Roberts has two degrees from Harvard, so does Merrick Garland, 3 current justices went to Yale, Crafty went to Columbia, Obama Harvard, Hillary Yale, Trump Wharton and George Will Princeton.  Dorothy from Kansas was the last person of power to come from the heartland.  

Bernanke wrote a book on the Great Recession (he helped cause) and Yellen praised him for his work on that.  Showing up for the speech helps to keep the group in mutual back patting mode.  I was patiently listening for the negatives because I believe this economy is horribly under-performing and that the Fed is enabling the fiscal insanity of the other two branches. (Whoops, the Fed is not the third branch of government even thought the judiciary is now just a rubber stamp of elected liberalism.)

Zero interest rates are bad for the economy.  No one (but our Crafty) ever seems to say that.  We have a zero savings rate because of it; that didn't come up in the talk.  Why are interest rates still at roughly zero?  Because the economy is still too weak and too fragile to handle anything near a normal cost of money - in their own opinion - and the Fed has access and control of the most wide ranging and detailed economic information anywhere on the planet.  Why is the economy too weak and too fragile to handle real or normal, balanced, market interest rates?  Bad policies that are not being addressed by anything in her talk.  (See below.)

Of the financial collapse, Yellen says, "we didn't see it coming".  No they didn't.  She was on the forefront of warning about the housing bubble.  "We saw trees".  But they didn't see the forest by their own admission.  (So we put her in charge.)  She is quite humble but eager to brag about her predecessor and the team (she was head of the San Francisco Fed, 12th district).  The team responded fast and creatively and courageously and so on.  There should be a movie about it, starring some handsome young actor as Ben Bernanke.)  Not a word about how the Fed helped cause it!

So many great things are going on in our limping economy, she hardly had time to talk about the bad things.  We grew 14 million jobs since the bottom (while the population increased by more than that).  Maybe I have too much math and physics background, but waves are measured peak to peak or trough to trough, but those types of measure make this 'recovery' look like 8 wasted years we will never get back.  Unemployment (as measured dishonestly) dropped from 10% to 5%, now considered full employment [by others].  No mention of the weakness in that until pressed.

On the bad side, the number of people working part time who would like to be working full time is "unusually high", in the 8th year of the 'recovery'.

Not much improvement in wages (understatement of the decade), which is "suggestive of slack in the labor market", contradicting the unemployment improvement claim above.

Growth in "output" (GDP) is "remarkably slow".  

Productivity growth is VERY slow, 1/2% per year, "miserably slow", "a serious and negative development".
(I would like to come back to that since she didn't.)

Inflation is below the 2% target (the target is a crime in itself) due to the plunge in oil prices (nothing to do with inflation) and the appreciation of the dollar (all to do with failure in the world around us).

She sees currently weak growth picking up (greener grass just over that fence).  They intend to increase the "overnight lending rate" "gradually and cautiously" over the next few months (assuming growth picks up and it won't), and up from near zero to 3-3.25% within 5-7 years (assuming constant, uninterrupted growth, which also won't possibly happen).

She opposes negative interest rate policy for the "negative repercussions" (she is right on that) and agrees that zero interest rate policy limits the scope of policies the Fed has to address new problems and weaknesses that arise.  (Right again even though that is what they are doing.)  The Fed invented other tools in the face of this, "longer term asset purchases" that people like Yellen, Grannis and Wesbury don't like to call printing money (what did they purchase them with, thin air?).

As a true liberal leftist, she also believes in "greater latitude in fiscal policy" as a tool to address future downturns and weakness, as if public investment had the affect of private investment and as if $19 trillion in debt isn't already causing a burden and limiting the scope of future policy decisions.
--------------------------------
My own comments continued:

What did not come up at all are the underlying causes of the current malaise, over-taxation and over-regulation.

40% of people in their 20s with a college degree do not work in a job requiring a college degree.  100 million adults don't work at all.  Disability and food stamp recipient needs have skyrocketed DURING THIS 'RECOVERY' (not a recovery).  Wage growth is zero; productivity growth is zero; WHY?

Wages are tied to productivity growth and the demand for labor which is tied really to entrepreneurial and small business activities which are constrained (or crushed) by excessive taxes and regulations.

Productivity growth is tied to capital investment.  Think of digging a hole or a ditch with a broken shovel, a clean sharp shovel with a longer handle, a bobcat or a caterpillar.  Productivity goes up with better tools that cost money, in some cases lots of money, which means there has to be a good long term outlook, favorable economic conditions and a good, long term, AFTER TAX return realistically expected on that investment.  And no big threat that it will soon be closed or confiscated by the government.  This investment is not happening, Janet Yellen is telling us, though she is either too polite of too ignorant to criticize the administration and the congress for strangling our formerly vibrant private sector.

Productivity growth alone doesn't create higher wages, we need increased output growth too and some control over the supply of new cheap labor coming in.  Exactly the opposite of our current economic policies that stifle and punish capital investment, leave the borders open and offer programs for able people to not work in lieu of real job creation.  If you are the most powerful woman in the world and Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, get up on your bully pulpit and shout it!  Instead Janet Yellen is mostly silent.

The new economic normal is for all governments have all their hands around all the throats of those who produce, and do so with the precise bureaucratic expertise that they know just how hard they can squeeze without killing us.  Good luck if you believe that!  We vote to give them that power and we keep  voting to increase that power, to keep us moving in the wrong direction, running out of tools to keep mitigating it.  Soon it will be $20 trillion in debt and more than half the people not working at all.  What could possibly go wrong?
223  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Noonan on the Trump-Reagan comparison on: June 27, 2016, 10:11:02 PM

"if Trump wants to be compared to Reagan he should act more like him."

Good to see Peggy Noonan on Patriot Post.
224  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: European matters, Brexit campaign deception? on: June 27, 2016, 04:01:39 PM
"But within hours of the result on Friday morning, the Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, had distanced himself from the claim that £350m of EU contributions could instead be spent on the NHS"

The video:  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-nigel-farage-nhs-350-million-pounds-live-health-service-u-turn-a7102831.html
'The EU money should be spent here in Britain.'  (It wasn't a budget proposal.)

Did one Brit vote Exit thinking it was a heathcare vote?  Did one Brit think zero immigration was the guarantee? 

The vote was about who decides those questions. 

Was someone somewhere teased with the idea of what could be done with all that money if they quit sending it to Brussels?  Sure.  It could go into healthcare.

Boris Johnson, former mayor of London, the next Prime Minister(?) wrote strongly in favor of Leave:
"Americans would never accept EU restrictions – so why should we?"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/03/16/boris-johnson-americans-would-never-accept-eu-restrictions--so-w/
Not a mention of NHS, National Health Service, zero immigration.  He opposes "uncontrolled immigration"! 

The UK Spectator wrote persuasively about 'Leave', no utterance of doing so for heathcare dollars. 
http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=1078.msg96829#msg96829
Nor were those claims in any other post here on the forum I can see.
225  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential on: June 27, 2016, 01:46:08 PM
Caught a bit of the EDC with Forked Tongue Warren this morning.

Seems to be good synergy between the two.  

FTW has some very good populist issues (Feds should not be profiting on your students loans , , , on an education which should be free anyway) and that Consumer Protection Board she helped set up.  

Regarding the latter, they ARE some seriously hideous practices by finance companies (See "This Week with John Oliver" episode on this) and FTW's attacks on them and other consumer protection issues will play very well AND allow the EDC to ride the coat tails of her popularity on this issue-- allowing her to shore up her very weak link of being 'for' the little guy.

Also, FTW is a very good attack dog against Trump.  EDC was chortling about how she gets under Trump's skin.


Prediction:  The EDC will choose FTW for VP.

Didn't see that, but agree to a point.  Choosing Warren locks in the woman question.  Trump probably picks a man because he needs some gravitas and the few women that would give him that (Condaleeza Rice?) will not do it.  She gets the historic matchup, men against women, and she has the most (bad) experience.

Warren locks up the Bernie sympathizers, a big part of populism and the hard left.  The downside is that they leave the middle wide open.  Warren isn't any younger, is another phony, has no relevant experience and opens up the potential to paint the ticket far left.  She is not the cautious choice like Biden and won't be excused for gaffes like Biden was.

All said, I agree, very good chance she picks her.  The other choices don't look very good.  This campaign from their point of view is about ripping Trump.
226  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: European matters, brexit backstroking on: June 27, 2016, 01:37:19 PM
Not enough to say "The Guardian is of the Left."

Is what the article says true or not?

I didn't find that they made a point.  They are no doubt right in their reporting that one Leave-advocate believes immigration will continue after Leave and another opposes putting all EU money into socialized healthcare, but how is that the story?  British voters can put their EU money into healthcare or not with Leave, a choice they did not have with remain.  How could the Leave campaign promise zero immigration?  In my posts on this, the Leave campaign was promoting that Britain instead of EU decide that issue for Britain.  "Zero immigration" is either a straw argument or a bad idea in the first place.  The vote was to leave the EU, being ruled from afar.  Out of control immigration was the largest factor but not the issue on the ballot.  They can vote out their 'rino's' (TINOs?) next if they continue the invasion, an option that would have been made moot with Remain.

"if people watching think that they have voted and there is now going to be zero immigration from the EU, they are going to be disappointed.”

Who wants zero immigration, zero movement, zero mobility or zero ties with the continent?  What people want is an end to the invasion.

The flip side is what is true.  If you vote remain and win, you lose your country.  Nearly half the country said yes to that - including 'The Guardian'.

Seek with agenda-based reporting and you will an angle to make your opponent look bad.  Put it on the front page, top center, and it is a big story.  That's what it looks like to me. 
227  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: June 27, 2016, 12:09:08 PM
The Left is having a party over this:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/25/politics/george-will-donald-trump-leaving-republican-party-election/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_topstories+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Top+Stories%29

I have felt that way about the GOP for 10 years if not longer.
Problem is we don't have 4 to 8 years to "grit our teeth" and wait for 2020 or 2024 as he reasons.
...

Strangely, on the issues where I disagree with George Will, he tends to agree more with Trump.

We've been in general election mode for nearly two months.  What kind of conservative party nominee, campaign or election does Trump hope to win that doesn't include having George Will at least lukewarm on your side?  Good grief.

The idea that Sanders supporters are going Trump or Republican in large numbers to cover for conservative votes lost is a joke. 

The question is presented for conservatives, are you better off seeing your country get 65% more screwed up by a Republican (in name only) or 80% more screwed up by a Democrat?

A Trump failure as President, especially if he consolidates Republican support to win which he must, will not be followed by a political correction to the right.  A Trump failure as a candidate only leaves his supporters even more bitter toward conservatives who didn't back him, never to join them again.  A Hillary victory and failure will not leave us time to fix the country in our lifetimes no matter what follows.

Screwed and screwed are our two choices.  Choose wisely (gallows sarcasm).
228  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Economics, the stock market, etc. on: June 27, 2016, 11:49:03 AM
A funny quote I came across trying to read the market reaction to Brexit:

"Many companies in the FTSE 100 (the Dow of the UK) dig stuff up in Africa, price it in dollars and sell it in China" [and then take the global market value of that to tell us how the economy is doing in Britain in this case]. 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/27/why-we-should-be-looking-at-the-ftse-250-and-not-the-ftse-100-to/

To me it reinforces my point that the nominal dollar value index of giant, crony, entrenched companies, Dow, S&P, etc., after QE-10, ZIRP, NIRP, CRAp, doesn't tell us squat about how the economy is doing.
229  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Trump's VP pick on: June 27, 2016, 11:33:43 AM
My prediction, John Kasich, is failing because he still hates Trump and because his own star really fizzled after his only win in Ohio.  He really won Ohio as the anti-Trump, not a pitch he can use as VP pick.

This story goes over the names:
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/who-will-donald-trump-pick-his-vp-n598736

The only name they add of note to what has already been dissected is Mike Pence who I like.  Maybe he can help Trump carry Indiana and not lose in 50 states.

Friends of mine, mostly sane, say they will vote Hillary to stop Trump.  Friends of mine on the left are receiving cell calls by the hour from Hillary and Hillary,PAC and GOTV groups while Trump is floundering.  Washington Post has him down now by double digits.  Brexit vote should have helped him immensely.  Orlando shooting should have sealed the deal.  He was vacationing when he should have been pouncing.  Master of the media message??  Where are you?

Lesson to my side who already lost, you can't wait for every four years to put out a message, then fall off-message and hope to win.  Do Olympic champions take the four years off before the main event?
230  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Some Brexit backstroking? on: June 27, 2016, 11:16:06 AM

The Guardian =  The Left.  More positive stories at the Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
Wimbledon gearing up, soccer news, Kate Middleton's dresses, life goes on.

The vote is to bring back sovereignty, to decide these issues as a nation, not solve all problems automatically.  It is still a divided nation. 

This was their independence day, only half of them including all of the elites didn't want it.

Panic in the UK, OMG, we don't have rule from afar anymore.  How will we possibly survive?

I hate to comment on markets because they will move a different direction as soon as I say anything, but it looks to me like the markets have stabilized in a day and that the German, French and Euro markets dropped further than the British market.

EU wanted free trade with Britain in the EU, why wouldn't they want that now?  Or is all the panic and doom-saying intentional? 

Why hasn't our own Bozo in Chief signed a free trade agreement with Britain yet?  Obama promised retaliation and he delivers.  Where was all that integrity on healthcare and selling the Iran deal?
231  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Down the memory hole-- Chris Stevens location given away in emails on: June 27, 2016, 10:20:21 AM
http://conservativetribune.com/hillary-email-chris-stevens/
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/03/01/hillary-emails-betrayed-whereabouts-of-murdered-ambassador-chris-stevens/

Breitbart and "Conservative Tribune"??

Unless I'm missing something here, this is another sickening commentary on our media, you have to read right wing sites to get news, not just opinion.

In a Google News search for stories about Hillary's email issues, the first, non-right wing story to come up is a USA Today opinion calling Hillary's email situation a "pseudo-scandal", written by a Clinton surrogate.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/06/16/hillary-clinton-email-non-scandal-column/85718386/

NOTHING about the story I learned here on the forum via links in Crafty's posts.
232  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Stevens location known? on: June 27, 2016, 10:00:32 AM
When they started dripping out the emails in reverse order of importance, you knew the security pleas and location giveaways of murdered Ambassador Chris Stevens were coming.  I am still guessing there is far worse to come.

This is part of of it, but I would like to know the best, short, definitive answer to what the casual liberal leftist Hillary supporter says, innocently, about the Hillary email mess, "So what?"

This is 2011.  Ambassador Stevens was murdered in 2012.  But his secret movements and mission were being broadcast to the hackers of the world by Hillary's top staff over Hillary's unsecured server.  Like a lot of people close to Hillary, he ended up dead.  

They (the terrorists) knew where he was on Sept 11, 2012.
233  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Sen.Ted Cruz on: June 27, 2016, 09:52:40 AM
I like Caroline Glick, but I'm not sure if that linked matched up with the subject.  Here is an older piece:
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Our-World-Ted-Cruzs-American-restoration-442831
----------------------------------------
"I’m not going to speculate now only because you all know the situation may change by this afternoon, let alone between now and the convention.”  Scott Walker, free the delegates

   - True, but DT is mostly likely to gradually improve (slightly) as a candidate between now and the election.

"several hundred GOP delegates are planning a revolt against Trump, and to select a unifying candidate who can actually defeat Hillary Clinton."

    - No such thing (unifying candidate who can actually defeat Hillary Clinton) under these circumstances to persuade the 30-40% who prefer Trump to get behind a different guy who did not win in the primary process.

"Whatever happens, Ted Cruz is quite simply the most amazing leader the Republican Party has produced since Reagan as far as im concerned"

    - Cruz is more conservative than Reagan but as a leader: he failed to bring any Senators with him to the right (Mike Lee was already there), he failed to consolidate the primary vote on the right losing perhaps half of it to Trump, and failed to even try to reach out at all to the center and pull them to the right.  It turned out the other way around, the center started reaching out to him as the last alternative to Trump and he failed to woo more from the center than Trump or to successfully 'prosecute' Trump's candidacy, like Christy did to Rubio, when it came down to the Trump-Cruz head to head.  The final straw was Indiana.  Trump was wrong on the economic case he was making there.  Cruz had organization, plenty of money, a limited market size, a conservative state, and the head to head matchup that he sought for so long and could not, did not, make the case.  Now we go forward trying to defeat Hillary and the left stuck using the wrong economic arguments.  We would have better off without Ted Cruz in the race and without him in the race next time too.  He was part of what choked out support for others who might have gone further, IMHO.
234  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: European matters on: June 25, 2016, 11:26:17 AM
Apparently Northern Ireland is now making noises about exiting Britain to unify with Ireland
https://www.facebook.com/sinnfein/videos/1003910339678597/

and Scotland and Wales are making similar noises.

We live in interesting times.

And, a trip down memory lane with the Iron Lady:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tetk_ayO1x4

Interesting times made possible by the Brexit vote.  Without it we were turning into Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia, Orwell's '1984' nations. 

Northern Ireland interested in re-joining Ireland is a good thing, right?  I love Scotland but not their politics.  Let them join with whomever they wish, except for the military installations that belong to the UK and NATO.  London can put up the London wall and enjoy all the prosperity of East Berlin, pre-Reagan.

Like DDF suggests, let's get a little reorganization going here too and some self determination instead of rule by others from afar, Washington DC, UN, IPCC etc.
235  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Housing: homeowners are thriving while renters are struggling on: June 24, 2016, 01:03:05 PM
Putting this in housing but thinking of cognitive dissonance of his glibness and the left.  Who did they say they want to help and who did they hurt the worst.  Same groups.

Homeowners are thriving while renters are struggling, year 8 of the Obama administration, year 10 after Democrats took over Washington. 

The richer get richer and the poor, the working and the struggling get squeezed under their policies.  Just extly what they accused Republicans when they were in charge, except then homeownership and incomes were increasing.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/06/20/decade_after_housing_peaked_owners_richer_renters_hurting_130937.html
236  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Brexit! on: June 24, 2016, 12:09:58 AM
England isn't quite dead yet.

Happy to see this.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-idUSKCN0Z902K

This is fantastic news.

Pres. Obama says they will be at the back of the queue for a trade deal with the US.

Really?  If Barack doesn't have time, I'll write it:  The following parties agree to trade freely:  US, UK.
237  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Senator Marco Rubio on: June 22, 2016, 03:35:59 PM
[quote  sauthor=ccp link=topic=2390.msg96903#msg96903 date=1466624703]
For me this is great news.

We need him!   grin

Doug,
you in?  cool
[/quote]

It's good news for America, and yes, I could change my legal residence to Florida by November.

 This is not a sure win for Rubio, but if he is going to lose another statewide race in Florida it might as well be now.
238  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: FB bans gay page for Islamophobia on: June 22, 2016, 12:18:38 PM

 Depending on the definition of phobia, the gay view of Islam is not irrational fear.
239  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: June 22, 2016, 09:25:58 AM
This race is Trump's to win.  Latest poll shows him leading Clinton on the economy and he most certainly should be able to make the case he would make us more secure.

Regarding the unforced errors, they are correctable.  The first thing he addressed after firing his campaign manager is the Warren-Pocahontas mess.  First, the joke was Faux-cahontas.  Warren isn't some beautiful native princess, she is a phony.  He corrected it by saying he was wrong and that it was an insult to Pocahontas.  I'm guessing people LOVED hearing him say he was wrong even if it was only about a throwaway line about an irrelevant leftist.  He is wrong on some other things too.  Correct them and get focused on two things, being the best choice for the economy and best on security.  Shouldn't be that hard; his opponent is running to continue our economic and security problems.
240  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Additional on the social pressures on Muslims in the west on: June 22, 2016, 09:10:51 AM

This is the conundrum.  We can't solve this (ever) without peace seeking Muslims coming forward and we can't provide a full witness protection program for 2 billion people.  10-15% can control 85-90% with terror. (The IRS has been doing it for years.) The latest Islamist example was a 4 year old girl beheaded in front of her mom.  I wonder what either of them did wrong.

Articulating this better is Trump's ticket to getting elected.  We know that not all Muslims are attacking us.  We know peaceful Muslims face huge risks when they come forward to help.  But Muslims and Muslim immigrants is a group that includes nearly all the terrorists and the rest can't join us in rooting out this problem, so it is suicidal for our society to be take in more numbers of that group until that changes.  And if we aren't going to take more in legally, we certainly shouldn't take them in illegally.  One candidate is pledged to control the border.  One just the opposite, not evn pretending she will secure it.  The argument of which one will make us more secure isn't that hard.  Instead of being inflammatory, how about making the definitive case?
241  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Homeland Security, Border Protection, and American Freedom on: June 21, 2016, 03:36:51 PM
Do we have more Muslims waging jihad or helping law enforcement? I will will bet it's the former.

The peaceful majority need to go from staying out of it to helping law enforcement. 
242  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Politics of Health Care on: June 21, 2016, 03:32:02 PM
"how politics trumped science in the early spread of AIDS in NYC back in the 1980s"

That was the story of Arthur Ashe.  At 36, he was in NYC working with inner city youth, suffered a heart attack that he survived.  He was given HIV through NYC's contaminated blood supply during a transfusion.  Dead at age 49. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Ashe
243  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: We the Well-armed People (Gun rights stuff ) Terror Watch List? on: June 20, 2016, 09:48:05 PM
Leftism and guns, the goal is restrict something, anything, just get restrictions passed on guns.  The latest is the terror watch list, ban the sale of guns to people on the "terror watch list", whatever that is.  1.1 million people.  Makes sense.  Unless you examine it.

A couple of points on that.  First is the trick question, which is your favorite right in the Bill of Rights?  Hopefully ALL of them!  In this case, not just the second amendment applies but also due process, the 5th (and 14th).

"[N]or shall any person . . . be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law"

I am against selling weapons to terrorists.  Are the 1.1 million people on the terror watch list terrorists?

If you go back to the due process clause, the ones we know are terrorists aren't out buying guns; they are in prison or dead.

Was Omar dumbshit, the gay hating gay Muslim ISIS surrogate (don't want to know his name) on the terror watch list?  No.  He was taken off the list.  Why?  I don't know.  Bureaucrats make mistakes.  Law enforcement missed something.  He hadn't committed a crime. People who manage lists of a million people don't get everything right.  Maybe it was 4:00 in a government office when his name should have been re-entered.  Some didn't want to speak up against him because he was Muslim.  Whatever the reason, this wouldn't have stopped him.  Does that change the minds of liberals?  No.   Their goal is restrict something, anything, just get some restrictions passed on guns.  (I repeat myself.  So do they.)

I am for declaring war on Radical Islam in all its iterations.  If that were the case and if law enforcement and military  intelligence were on it, the man who was communicating with, visiting and training with the enemy would be in jail, so would all his mentors, all with due process, and they would not be out buying guns.

A person on the terror watch list can't fly but can't buy a gun.  Why?  One is an enumerated right.  One is not a recognized right.  In law we have all kinds of standards. preponderance of evidence, proof beyond a reasonable doubt, rational basis, strict scrutiny, intermediate scrutiny, etc. etc.  What standard goes into putting a person on the terror watch list?  No one knows.  All we know is they aren't right or dertain enough to arrest them and they miss people all the time.

Meanwhile our border is open and while you were reading this more terrorists and illegal guns came in.  I recommend keeping the right to defend yourself.

And for the areas where the constitution has it wrong or times have changed, I recommend the constitutional amendment process, not governing by the willy nilly whims of leftists.
244  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Nafta isn't what hit the middle class, NAFTA and the Angry Middle-Class Voter on: June 20, 2016, 07:10:10 PM
First this:
I could have swore we had a thread about this already, but I can't find it , , ,  angry
http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=2563.msg90264#msg90264


A pretty balanced look at the issue.  The conclusion IMHO is in the subject line.

NAFTA and the Angry Middle-Class Voter
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/06/09/nafta_and_the_angry_middle-class_voter_130832.html

Professor Mauro Guillen at the Wharton School—Donald Trump’s alma matter—believes that most of the lost jobs lost would have gone anyway, probably to China...
245  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Paul Ryan on: June 20, 2016, 06:55:14 PM
More conservative than his predecessors, isn't a high bar.

People here liked Newt.  His Contract with America contained poll tested issues, not hard line right issues.   When he took a hard line with Clinton, he lost with the American people.

More conservative than half of his elected Republican colleagues isn't a high bar either.  Still I think his economic views are more conservative than his voting record and he is more conservative than DT [and HRC!] and of the Senate no matter which side carries it. 

G M, We have not been winning the debate on issues nationally for a long time.  Now our side doesn't even try. 

Speaking of national issues and conservative ratngs, what would Trump's lifetime ACU rating be?  (Rhetorical, for another thread...)
246  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Islam in Europe on: June 20, 2016, 06:42:58 PM
Large arsenal of heavy military weapons found near mosque in Hamburg Germany.
..."suspected that secret arsenals were also built in other German cities."

shocked shocked shocked shocked shocked shocked shocked shocked

Just a little over-used, but what could possibly go wrong?  And who knew?  [gallows humor is all I have fleft]

The connection between Hamburg and terror goes back at least to the 911 planning.  Now the Islamist terrorists in Germany have a million new recruiting prospects to work with.  Maybe they will find a "lone wolf" to train and arm...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_of_the_September_11_attacks
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamburg_cell
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/6267615/Terrorist-cell-found-in-Hamburg-where-911-attacks-conceived.html
247  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Paul Ryan, most conservative Speaker in our lifetime on: June 20, 2016, 06:28:37 PM
Some discussion, mostly negative, of Paul Ryan on the DT thread:
http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=2551.msg96811#msg96811

'Conservative Review rates him at 55%', not very good. 

The American Conservative Union rates Paul Ryan at 90%, lifetime score:
https://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/26344/paul-ryan#.V2h6LLsrLIU

In the age of Obama elected twice and Bernie Sanders being possible, we might consider ourselves a little bit lucky to have the most conservative Speaker in our lifetime, even though his record is far from pure.

Heritage is more pure than ACU, rates him at 63%; that's not great either, but only one Democrat in the House scores over 30%, Obamacare dissenter, Collin Peterson, representing western MN at 34%.
http://www.heritageactionscorecard.com/members/member/r000570
http://www.heritageactionscorecard.com/members

Milwaukee Journal Sentinal, link below:
"Ryan has taken a pragmatic tack in voting to keep the government going and avert shutdowns and crippling standoffs over the vast policy gulf between the parties. That approach puts him at odds with some more militant Republicans."
---
Another point would be that Ryan represents divided district that voted for Obama 2008 by 4 points.  The alternative to a stay elected stance by a Republican is to have a leftist in that seat.  Also, no more conservative member either wanted the Speakership or had the votes.  We perhaps need to move the voters to the right first before expecting purists to win national elections.
---
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/333032741.html  (written just before Ryan became speaker)

"Despite his critics on the right, Paul Ryan would rank as most conservative speaker in decades"

By Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel

Paul Ryan would be the most conservative House speaker in generations, as measured by a congressional rating system widely used by political scientists.

But he's not conservative enough for some activists on the right, who are voicing qualms about a Ryan speakership.

That development probably says less about Ryan's own politics — which have changed little over the years — than it does about the growing militancy of the GOP's right wing.

The Janesville Republican is being lobbied to succeed John Boehner as speaker in the midst of a party leadership crisis. Ryan says he doesn't want the job, but many colleagues are trying to change his mind.

The opposition to Ryan — or, at the very least, the tepid reception to him — isn't widespread and may not be powerful enough to derail a "draft Ryan" effort. But the fact that questions are being raised about his House conservatism is striking considering the nine-term congressman's longtime popularity with the right and his own political history.

Ryan's House budgets and his "road map" for the future (a controversial manifesto of conservative change) were hailed on the right as trailblazing blueprints for limited government.

Ryan's selection as Mitt Romney's running mate in 2012 was embraced by conservatives who wanted to draw a sharper ideological contrast with President Barack Obama.

And Ryan's voting record has consistently placed him in the right half of the Republican caucus in the House.

The number of policy issues on which Ryan parts company with the GOP's conservative base is quite small.

But the biggest fault lines in the party these days are over tone and tactics.

Ryan has taken a pragmatic tack in voting to keep the government going and avert shutdowns and crippling standoffs over the vast policy gulf between the parties. That approach puts him at odds with some more militant Republicans.

Nevertheless, his voting history in the U.S. House places him to the right of current Speaker John Boehner, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and former Majority Leader Eric Cantor, according to the leading academic ratings of congressional voting pioneered by political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal.

That history also puts Ryan to the right of the three previous GOP speakers of the postwar era: Dennis Hastert (speaker from 1999 to 2007), Newt Gingrich (1995-'99) and Joseph Martin (1953-'55).

The notion that Ryan isn't conservative is "absolutely insane," says Keith Poole, the University of Georgia professor and a creator of the rankings. His data suggests that if anything, Ryan has grown a bit more conservative during his 17 years in the House.

But because House Republicans have shifted so much to the right during his career, Ryan's conservative ranking in his caucus is a little lower than it used to be. In Ryan's first two years in office, he ranked as the 18th most conservative member of the House, according to the ratings. But he ranked as the 51st most conservative Republican in the last Congress (2013-'14).

Poole has a separate set of ratings that measure a lawmaker's entire career and are comparable across time periods.

Ryan's career score places him to right of 84% of the House Republicans he served with in his first term (1999-2000). It puts him to the right of only 65% of today's House Republicans, due to the changing political makeup of the GOP caucus.

The Poole-Rosenthal ratings are based on a broad cross-section of roll call votes.

Ryan's roll call ratings from conservative organizations are based on a much more selective pool of votes, and vary from group to group.

Ryan has a 90% lifetime rating from the 51-year-old American Conservative Union. But he has a much lower lifetime rating — 63% — from Heritage Action for America, a tea party-style group that takes a more purist and confrontational line on legislation.

Complaints about Ryan from his critics on the right typically fall into a few categories:

■ Ryan's support for spending bills and legislative compromises designed to keep the government running and avert a crisis. One example: the deal Ryan cut with Senate Democrat Patty Murray in 2013, passed overwhelmingly by the House, to temporarily lift some spending caps to resolve a budget standoff.

■ Immigration. Ryan supports a lengthy "probation" for illegal immigrants and conditional path to legal status. He is among the more liberal House Republicans on this issue. But Ryan has also been careful not to drift too far from his caucus, agreeing with most Republicans that enforcement and security should come first. On arguably the biggest immigration vote in the House in the past decade, Ryan voted for the hard-line, conservative 2005 immigration bill authored by Wisconsin's Jim Sensenbrenner and decried by Latino groups and immigration advocates.

■ A series of votes that Ryan cast during George W. Bush's presidency for the No Child Left Behind education law, the Medicare prescription drug benefit, and the auto and bank bailouts in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis. These votes were in support of a GOP president, but have drawn sharp criticism from some on the right. Beyond these items, there aren't that many issues where Ryan has split from conservatives. He has opposed efforts to end Davis-Bacon, the prevailing wage requirement on federally funded public works projects. He has opposed efforts to end Trade Adjustment Assistance, the program that aids workers displaced by foreign trade. He supported renewal in 2013 of the Violence Against Women Act, opposed by a majority of Republicans, to cite a few examples.

On the vast majority of contested issues before Congress, however, Ryan has cast conservative votes. And he has spent much of his career pushing the GOP in a more conservative direction on the role of government and urging his party to be bolder in drawing contrasts with Democrats.

If Ryan ends up as House Speaker, the GOP will be getting a leader who has been more conservative over his career than the average Republican, and more conservative than his predecessors in party leadership.

   - Craig Gilbert is the Journal Sentinel's Washington Bureau Chief and writes the Wisconsin Voter blog about politics and elections.
248  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: June 20, 2016, 12:43:06 PM
I don't see Ryan as a RINO.  I agree (mostly) with him on policy, just not on how to conduct war with the left.  To be fair, he led the charge against Obamacare and has been the Speaker for about a minute - in an election year.  I expect his policy agenda to be the best available blueprint going forward (it just won't be implemented).

That said, he was soft on illegal immigration - the Trump opening, and soft on de-funding leftism - the Cruz opening.

On the current course, assuming Trump loses and R's lose the Senate and win the House, Ryan may all we have left.  I do not expect his long term approach in that situation to be the same as Boehner's.  If Trump can win, Ryan will be necessary for anything good to happen.

I have no problem with him presenting the House as a check and balance over a President within his own party.  The failure to stand up to Obama is a past mistake from which Republicans may never recover.  It divided the movement and empowered the opposition.


"So what do we do now?  I don't know."

We picked the wrong guy.  70% negatives.  Makes Hillary look popular.  Who could have seen this coming?  whatever...

The only guy who can solve it now is Trump.  If the delegates suddenly switched allegiances and installed Rubio, Kasich, Walker or anyone else as nominee right now we would divide and lose even worse.  God help us.

My thought is that I will support and help Trump make his journey to becoming a better candidate and President who will make America Great Again by openly criticizing him on every policy and statement that deserves it.  Same goes for Ryan his new role.
249  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The "lone wolf" terrorist is a myth on: June 20, 2016, 12:12:15 PM

That's right.  Lone wolf is an apologist concoction that cannot be accepted where it is not true.

You can't (falsely) holler "FIRE!" in a crowded theater because of the mayhem it could cause, but you can openly recruit for al Qaida and ISIS on the internet and disseminate bomb and terror info?

These psycho morons want to be part of something.  And they want their carnage to be super-broadcasted in false glory to themselves and as an example and inspiration for others to follow.  We strangely do everything we can to accommodate their wishes.

It was actually Bill O'Reilly who had one aspect of this right, declare war on ISIS and radical Islam and then these activities of training, even communicating, with the enemy would be criminal.
250  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: June 20, 2016, 11:24:40 AM
Has Ryan done anything of note to stand up to president pen-and-drone?

Not to my knowledge. 

The Obama leftist over-reach brought us the Republican House and eventually the Senate.  The failure of both to stand up to him brought us the Trump opening and Ted Cruz as the last reasonable alternative.  Neither were ready or positioned to win a general election.  The Trump nomination victory is bringing us more leftist over-reach. 

Full circle.  Stuck on stupid.

Republican-run House.  Republican majority Senate (not 60 votes).  31 Republican Governors to 18 for the Dems.  70% of the state houses are now Republican because of distaste for leftism out in the heartland.  And we are still ruled by Leftism everywhere.

Politically we were better off watching them run us into the ground than helping them do it.
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