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201  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump attacks Trey Gowdy on: December 27, 2015, 06:54:56 PM
Because he is endorsing Rubio.

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/trump-benghazi-hearings-were-disaster-for-the-gop-bad-for-the-country/

What a jerk.
202  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Jack Welsh on Cruz on: December 27, 2015, 01:44:05 PM

Good defense of Cruz.  The questioner was more aware of the weaknesses than Welsch was.  Cruz would be the right person for President if the center of America is to the right of all the other elected politicians.  If not, he won't win and couldn't govern effectively if he did win I am afraid.  He acted in the Senate as Welsch says, doing what he said he would do, but is running a campaign aimed only at the people already as conservative as he is. 

On Rubio, he said, too slick and not deep.  I disagree.
203  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Rand Paul: Do nothing. Blame America. on: December 27, 2015, 01:21:38 PM

He points to failure and concludes his policy of doing nothing would have led to success.  Rand Paul is a master of oversimplifying foreign policy.  He draws all foreign policy questions into being one and the same.  He points to everything that went wrong and concludes that therefore that everything was fine before and doing nothing was the only alternative to failed, partial measures.

We have stayed out of Syria and the mess we didn't create is destroying Europe and the United States.  

We need smarter, wiser leadership that thinks through questions like the ones he raises.  Yes, all others have made mistakes.  His answers to it are worse.

American strength didn't cause ISIS to take Iraq.  Leaving irresponsibly is what preceded the ISIS takeover.  

Leaving Saddam in power in 2003 wasn't some great, wise solution.  By all measures, even the deniers, Saddam's Iraq would be nuclear by now.  Rand Paul would rather deal with that problem?  And then do nothing.

Rqand Paul's form of appeasement and non-intervention is our policy with Iran today, and they will be nuclear soon with our agreement.  Putin and Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are filling the voids.  

ISIS controlling territory in Iraq and Syria today is a global threat, not some faraway problem that doesn't affect us.

Yes, sending arms blindly into a very complicated war zone without a force or a serious plan is a bad idea.  That doesn't mean the right answer on foreign policy always is do nothing.
204  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Political Economics - Cronyism Causes the Worst Kind of Inequality on: December 27, 2015, 12:18:58 PM
Cronyism Causes the Worst Kind of Inequality

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-24/cronyism-causes-the-worst-kind-of-inequality

Higher inequality has been associated with lower growth.

Economists Sutirtha Bagchi of the University of Michigan and Jan Svejnar of Columbia recently set out to test the cronyism hypothesis.

only one kind of inequality was associated with low growth -- the kind that came from cronyism

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-24/cronyism-causes-the-worst-kind-of-inequality
http://ftp.iza.org/dp7733.pdf
205  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Cognitive Dissonance of left, Bernie Sanders warns college students about debt on: December 27, 2015, 11:59:19 AM
Bernie says they should be able to finish college without worrying about debt.

Meanwhile, Obama racked up 8.1 trillion in debt, all of which will be left behind as a debt burden for the kids in college today.

As usual with leftists, no reform of the cost structure causing the underlying problem is proposed.

What contains costs better than anything else ever discovered?  Market discipline.

How was market discipline removed from a decentralized system like college education?  Inject massive amounts of outside money.

He has had 74 years to learn this stuff.  Not a fast learner.  
When you are a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.
When you are a leftist, every problem looks like you need to throw more of other people's money at it.
206  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: December 27, 2015, 11:46:08 AM
I accept judicial review and within freedom of speech, if we still have that one, I reserve the right to point out WRONGLY DECIDED CASES.  And that is the reason people like the ones who come here ask about what kind of judges will he or she appoint.

You keep telling me that the protection against state and local government taking my liberty is the government that is taking my liberty. 

Just so you know, THAT IS NOT REASSURING.

We are far worse here now than the government the colonists were escaping.

When you form this great new Trump party that has no constitutional protections against new and expanding government abuses of power, please count me out.
207  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: December 27, 2015, 10:53:11 AM
"Why put up with the crap and having reputations dragged across the mud?"

   - Very funny.  Who dragged more reputations through the gutter this campaign season than the namesake of this thread?

"care only about themselves, their party and getting elected, then let's just continue on the same course."

   - With respect, it is crazy to consider people like Rubio and Cruz establishment, self centered and running to continue the status quo.

"the entrenched interests that influence current politicians will not let him prevail."

  - If he wins or loses, it will come down to votes, not evil people behind a curtain.

"I am just going to sit back and watch Rubio be given the nomination. Then I will watch his failures and his sell outs..."

  - The table is being set perfectly for a very conservative and inspiring Rubio to emerge with an image of being reasonable and acceptable.   All he needs now are the votes! The check and balance against a sellout Republican President would be to elect a wise and conservative congress.  This is a big part of what failed during the W Bush years.  When he strayed in the wrong direction expanding the federal role in education and continuing the federal role in housing and everything else, no one stopped him.  Any failure to reform the country under a Rubio administration will come out of a divided Senate, not the White House.

208  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / The Trump Court on: December 27, 2015, 10:27:21 AM
The ability of the constitution to adapt to new wisdom and changing times is contained in Article 5, the process for amending it, not in its alleged 'vagueness'.

"Congress shall pass no law abridging..."  still means Congress pass no law abridging... .

The 10th Amendment [Article 10?] states:  
"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people."

I don't know what part of -those powers are reserved to the states and to the people- is confusing to the left or anyone else.

What kind of Justices would DT appoint?  What will guide him on possibly the most responsibility of the Presidency?  Based on what he has been saying, he will be guided what supporters of limited government (such as the Founders) consider to be wrongheaded thinking.

It isn't the relatively rare occurrence or narrow question of government executed private takings; it is the thinking and (lack of?) core principles that issue reveals.

A man's home is his castle.  In the cases discussed the person in the forefront was a woman and it was her castle that was taken.  The power of the crony capitalist, whether is isTrump or Pfizer, combined with the power of government is yugely greater than the individual.  The power of all of us is greater than the crony and the government only if we honor and stand by our agreed core principles.  The 4th amendment couldn't be more clear.  From law.cornell.edu:  The Fourth Amendment enforces the notion that “each man's home is his castle”, secure from unreasonable searches and seizures.  The 5th amendment continues on that any takings are for "public use" and the 9th amendment, if it wasn't clear already, goes further to say that unenumerated rights receive the same protection as the specified ones.  Conservatives especially in the context of judicial picks are NOT looking for someone who wants to find wiggle room in that framework.  Politically, his support for big government power weakens the political argument that needs to be made against the big government party candidate the way the Romneycare weakened the case against Obamacare, even though arguably there was a difference.
209  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The candidate trailing Bernie Sanders by 13 in a Republican leaning poll on: December 25, 2015, 11:51:28 PM
Merry Christmas everybody!  Especially my Jewish and atheism worshiping friends!  I have gone into the Christian Church and report back that they are still hiding their real intentions with talk of peace, good tidings and cheer.   )

Following up here...  The poll cited in Trump's favor still has him losing to Hillary and matching up against her the worst of the top 3 Republicans.  The recent poll that oversampled Republicans, pp's words, has Trump losing to Bernie by 13.  Huffington, cited by pp as the best compilation, has Trump  trailing Clinton by nearly 20.  Oh well.  Trump wanted Clinton to be President anyway.  We'd rather lose, get Hillary and blow the party up than have a liberal like Rubio or Cruz, we are to believe.  And George Will, Bill Kristol, Bret Stephens, WSJ, Weekly Standard, National Review, Hot Air and Powerline are all just crazy centrists.  Fuck em.  We'll build a conservative coalition that doesn't include anybody that called themselves a conservative before we redefined it.

Pat, I deserved the tough replies; I was kind of hard on Trump recently.  Regarding your long posts where points 1-273 basically say Trump is leading in the nomination polls and people underestimated him, I say, ... uh ... we know that.

As to not really answering my two questions, I understand.  They are unanswerable in defense of Trump.  Let's review:

1) What are the limits on government that are left after Trump completely blows off the 4th, 5th and 9th amendments for example on private enterprises using government powers instead of money, markets and consent for their takings?  The answer is, nothing limits government when these limits don't apply.  It isn't that we disagree, it is that the unanswerable question still remains, without those limits- what are the limits on government?  To the followup, what kind of Justices would he appoint if he doesn't have any sense of what our constitution is, what it says or what it is supposed to do, I received this back:  Well, Souter and Kennedy were lousy picks too.  In case this needs to be said, that is the reason for conservatives' concern, not something that alleviates it.  

2)  Regarding the illegal immigration roundup for deportation, my question was, how exactly is he going to do this?  (We all know he isn't.)  The answer received back is that like war, he is going to keep the details of how he will conduct these raids in the neighborhoods secret.  Nice try.  That answer almost worked for hiding a non-existent war strategy but it doesn't work at all for domestic policy.  Democrats and the media will eat him alive on this.   How is he going to do this?   When he tones the rhetoric down to the point where he is perceived as reasonable to a wider electorate, it will necessarily include some of what you call amnesty, and what everyone can see makes him no stronger or different than Cruz or the other competitors.  He has not answered this and if you answer it for him... that doesn't count.

Does anyone remember when the Feds under Janet Reno raided a Miami family home to get Elian Gonzalez?  It was an ugly scene.  Now we are going to do 20 million of these if you believe Trump.  They aren't all kids that just arrived, but they all do have a story.  Or will they self-deport - the line that worked so well for Romney.

Six-year-old Elian Gonzalez seized at gunpoint in a raid by 151 BORTAC agents in his Miami home, April 22, 2000:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGIJvGZq_Bc

At a ratio of 151 Federal agents to every 6 year boy seized, we will need 3 billion federal agents to conduct the secret, surprise raids we are promised.  At least they won't be constrained by that annoying 4th amendment.  
210  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Housing/Mortgage/Real Estate on: December 24, 2015, 10:53:06 AM
It begins!!!
Fed raised .25%.  I shall be watching the 30 Year Fixed.
If she continues, rate could be at 5% by end of 2016.

Fed raised rates and mortgage rates dipped (slightly). 

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_MORTGAGE_RATES?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-12-24-10-07-04
The drop (to 3.96%) is a reminder that the Fed has only an indirect influence on long-term mortgage rates, which more closely track the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. And that rate, in turn, tends to stay down as long as inflation remains low...


Some say Feds don't set interest rates; it is more like they follow them.  Economics at this point in history is an inexact science.
But PP's prediction above still seems reasonable and likely to me.
211  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential on: December 24, 2015, 10:41:22 AM
Very funny!
212  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump - the unknown unknowns on: December 24, 2015, 10:15:16 AM
Not to pile on here, well maybe...

One observer adds to my point that schlonged really meant raped not screwed because it was certainly not what she wanted, but further than that, the Trump characterization is racist because the one doing the schlonging was a black man.  All he really did was eek out a win over her in a somewhat fair election.  Hardly a schlonging.  The words we choose matter.
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To not know we have a nuclear triad might be inexcusable and disqualifying but how about a big time media mogul not knowing that Putin is having opposing journalists murdered and having the presumed Republican nominee taking Putin's side on that?  We criticize liberals for living in their cocoons on the east and west coast and never talking to anyone outside their viewpoint, but Trump seems to live in a cocoon of one.   It may include a couple of yes-men and yes-woman, Mrs. Trump, but no one tells him anything beyond what he already thinks he knows - unless they want to hear, 'you're fired'.

Kind words from Doug to our frontrunner on Putin not killing journalists this Christmas Eve: know the facts or shut the *%#* up.  Here is what we know:

Who is murdering Russian Journalists?
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428916/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-mutual-admiration

That there is no proof that Putin is guilty of murder is an absurdity.

Persons interested in the truth can form a realistic impression of Putin’s guilt on the basis of three well-known murders, those of Yuri Shchekochikhin, Anna Politkovskaya, and Alexander Litvinenko. In each case, the pattern is the same: a serious political opponent, clear evidence of official involvement, and extraordinary efforts to sabotage the investigation. If one adds to this, Putin’s statement in his inaugural speech in 2000 that “in Russia, the President answers for everything,” the reality of the situation becomes completely clear. In each case, the pattern is the same: a serious political opponent, clear evidence of official involvement, and extraordinary efforts to sabotage the investigation. Shchekochikhin was a member of the State Duma and a reporter for the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta. He investigated the mysterious 1999 Russian apartment bombings that brought Putin to power and, in his capacity as a journalist, he also investigated the case of the Grand and Three Whales furniture stores, which were founded by the father of a high-ranking FSB (Federal Security Service) official and had reportedly evaded millions of dollars in import duties. He had been in perfect health but became sick after returning to Moscow from a trip to Ryazan in July 2003. The illness progressed catastrophically, from peeling skin to “edemas of the respiratory system and brain” and finally death. His relatives were denied an official medical report about the cause of his illness and forbidden to take tissue samples. At his funeral, no one was allowed to approach the body. Perhaps the best-known killing of a political opponent was that of Alexander Litvinenko, a fugitive FSB agent who wrote about the 1999 apartment bombings and the FSB’s links to organized crime. Litvinenko became ill on November 1 after drinking tea with Andrei Lugovoy, the owner of a Moscow security company, and Lugovoy’s associate, Dmitri Kovtun, in the Pine Bar of the Millennium Hotel in London. For the next two days, he began to suffer from vomiting and diarrhea. His hair began falling out and he experienced a sharp drop in his white-blood-cell count. Litvinenko’s doctors suspected radiation poisoning, but only gamma and beta particles can penetrate the skin and there was no gamma or beta radiation in his blood. On November 23, he was pronounced dead.

Litvinenko wrote a statement in which he accused Putin of his murder. “You may succeed in silencing one man,” he wrote, “but the howl of protest from around the world will reverberate, Mr. Putin, in your ears for the rest of your life.” After Litvinenko’s death, British experts discovered polonium-210, an alpha emitter, in his urine. Polonium cannot pass through the body but is deadly when taken internally. Traces of polonium were subsequently found by the British police at the Pine Bar, at a sushi restaurant where Litvinenko dined with Lugovoy and Kovtun on October 16, and on the seat occupied by Lugovoy on a British Airways flight from Moscow to London on October 25.  

At a news conference after Litvinenko’s death but before the polonium was discovered, Putin said there was no indication that Litvinenko had died a violent death and that the case was being used for political purposes. Six months after Litvinenko’s death, the British prosecutor officially requested Lugovoy’s extradition. Putin refused, saying the Russian constitution barred sending citizens abroad for trial, even though Russia had signed the Council of Europe Extradition Convention in 2001. In December 2007, Lugovoy was elected to the Russian parliament. He insisted he was being framed by Britain’s MI5. In an interview with the Russian press about requests that he go to London for questioning, he said, “Why should I drop everything and rush off to England?” Another well-known dissident who was murdered was Anna Politkovskya, who reported for Novaya Gazeta on Russian atrocities in Chechnya. On October 7, 2006, she was shot four times in her apartment building after stepping out of the elevator on her floor.

After her death, Putin said that Politkovskaya’s influence was “minimal.” He also said that her murder “caused much more damage to the authorities than her reporting” — raising the possibility that, in his mind, if it had caused less damage, killing her would have been acceptable. In November 2008, three persons were put on trial for Politkovskaya’s murder: two Chechen brothers, Ibrahim and Dzhabrail Makhmudov, and Sergei Khadzhikurbanov, a former member of the Russian internal ministry’s organized-crime unit. A fourth person, Pavel Ryaguzov, a former FSB lieutenant colonel, was suspected of taking a leading role in the plot but was not charged due to a lack of evidence. A third brother, Rustam Makhmudov, the suspected triggerman, escaped abroad. Putin hinted that the mastermind was the exiled oligarch Boris Berezovsky, a political enemy of Putin’s.

The trial ended on February 19, 2009, with the acquittal of all three defendants amid signs that the FSB had sabotaged the prosecution. The FSB leaked information about the identity of the suspects, making it possible for the triggerman to escape, and prevented investigators from seizing Ryaguzov’s office computer. The ties between the assassination team, the FSB, and the police were also found to be far more extensive than was first revealed. Sergei Sokolov, the deputy editor of Novaya Gazeta, which conducted its own investigation, testified that Dzabrail Makhmudov was an FSB agent and that he and his brothers were recruited by their uncle, Lomi-Ali Gaitukayev, also an FSB agent, who reported to Ryaguzov and was in prison for the attempted murder of a Ukrainian businessman. In June 2009, the acquittals were overturned by the Russian Supreme Court, which cited procedural errors. In the meantime, Novaya Gazeta found evidence that Dmitry Pavlyuchenkov, a high-ranking Moscow police officer and witness at the first trial, had been hired by Gaitukayev to place Politkovskaya under surveillance. He gave the assassins her address and the weapons and bullets they used to kill her.

Russia’s Weimar Syndrome In August 2011, Pavluchenkov was arrested and charged with Politkovskaya’s murder. He struck a deal with the prosecution: In exchange for naming the mastermind of the crime, the charge against him was reduced from organizing the murder to involvement in it. But he never testified about the supposed mastermind. Instead, Vladimir Markin, a spokesman for the Investigative Committee, said that “Pavlyuchenkov . . . testified that he was told by Gaitukayev that the masterminds were Berezovsky and [Akhmed] Zakaev” (Zakaev is the head of the Chechen government in exile). In fact, Pavluchenkov’s deal with the prosecution made it possible to cover the trail leading to the mastermind. There is no evidence to support the official story that Berezovsky was behind the crime. On June 20, 2014, five persons were convicted. Gaitukayev, who recruited the gang, and his nephew Rustam Makhmudov, the gunman, received life in prison. Ibragim and Dzabarail Makhmudov were sentenced to 12 and 14 years respectively for following Politkovskaya on the day she was killed. Khadzhikurbanov received 20 years as an accomplice. None of them is likely to have known who ordered the killing.

The cases of Shchekochikhin, Litvinenko, and Politkovskaya are among the best-known of the political murders in Russia under Putin, but there are many others where the pattern of likely regime or FSB involvement and a subsequent sabotage of the investigation is clearly evident, including the cases of the American journalist Paul Klebnikov, human-rights activist Natalya Estimirov, Duma deputy Sergei Yushenkov, and others. Seen as a whole, these cases make clear that what is involved is deliberate terror against the opposition that, in the unitary Russian system, could only be directed by Putin. Unfortunately, American presidential candidates are often not interested in understanding the details of what is happening in Russia, and a particularly reckless candidate can become what Lenin described as a “useful idiot.” This is a person whose superficiality makes him ideally suited to serve Russian purposes and whose self-confidence is constantly stoked with signs of esteem from the Russian leaders, who assure him that whatever others may think of him, they are and will remain his true friends. — David Satter’s latest book, The Less You Know, the Better You Sleep: Russia’s Road to Terror and Dictatorship under Yeltsin and Putin, Yale Press 2016
213  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: December 24, 2015, 09:35:29 AM
I wish we could get George Will to tell us how he really thinks about Donald Trump instead of sugar coating all the time...

Will Donald Trump End the GOP’s Role as America’s Conservative Party?

GEORGE WILL

If you look beyond Donald Trump’s comprehensive unpleasantness — is there a disagreeable human trait he does not have? — you might see this: He is a fundamentally sad figure. His compulsive boasting is evidence of insecurity. His unassuageable neediness suggests an aching hunger for others’ approval to ratify his self-admiration. His incessant announcements of his self-esteem indicate that he is not self-persuaded. Now, panting with a puppy’s insatiable eagerness to be petted, Trump has reveled in the approval of Vladimir Putin, murderer and war criminal.

Putin slyly stirred America’s politics by saying Trump is “very talented,” adding that he welcomed Trump’s promise of “closer, deeper relations,” whatever that might mean, with Russia. Trump announced himself flattered to be “so nicely complimented” by a “highly respected” man: “When people call you brilliant, it’s always good.” When MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough said Putin “kills journalists and political opponents and invades countries,” Trump replied that “at least he’s a leader.” Besides, Trump breezily asserted, “I think our country does plenty of killing also.” Two days later, Trump, who rarely feigns judiciousness, said: “It has not been proven that he’s killed reporters.”

Perhaps the 56 journalists murdered were coincidental victims of amazingly random violence that the former KGB operative’s police state is powerless to stop. It has, however, been “proven,” perhaps even to Trump’s exacting standards, that Putin has dismembered Ukraine. (Counts one and two at the 1946 Nuremberg trials concerned conspiracy to wage, and waging, aggressive war.) Until now, Trump’s ever-more-exotic effusions have had an almost numbing effect. Almost. But by his embrace of Putin, and by postulating a slanderous moral equivalence — Putin kills journalists, the United States kills terrorists, what’s the big deal, or the difference? — Trump has forced conservatives to recognize their immediate priority.

Certainly conservatives consider it crucial to deny the Democratic party a third consecutive term controlling the executive branch. Extending from eight to twelve years its use of unbridled executive power would further emancipate the administrative state from control by either a withering legislative branch or a supine judiciary. But first things first. Conservatives’ highest priority now must be to prevent Trump from winning the Republican nomination in this the GOP’s third epochal intra-party struggle in 104 years.

Theodore Roosevelt campaigned for the Republican nomination on an explicitly progressive platform. Having failed to win the nomination, he ran a third-party campaign against the Republican nominee, President William Howard Taft, and the Democratic nominee, New Jersey governor Woodrow Wilson, who that November would become the first person elected president who was deeply critical of the American founding.

TR shared Wilson’s impatience with the separation of powers, which both men considered an 18th-century relic incompatible with a properly energetic executive. Espousing unconstrained majoritarianism, TR favored a passive judiciary deferential to elected legislatures and executives; he also endorsed the powers of popular majorities to overturn judicial decisions and recall all public officials.

Taft finished third, carrying only Utah and Vermont. But because Taft hewed to conservatism, and was supported by some other leading Republicans (e.g., Senator Henry Cabot Lodge, one of TR’s closest friends, and Elihu Root, TR’s secretary of war and then secretary of state), the Republican Party survived as a counterbalance to a progressive Democratic Party. In 1964, Barry Goldwater mounted a successful conservative insurgency against a Republican establishment that was content to blur and dilute the Republican distinctiveness that had been preserved 52 years earlier. Goldwater defeated New York’s Governor Nelson Rockefeller for the nomination, just as Taft had defeated TR, a former New York governor. Like Taft, Goldwater was trounced (he carried six states). But the Republican party won five of the next seven presidential elections. In two of them, Ronald Reagan secured the party’s continuity as the custodian of conservatism.

In 2016, a Trump nomination would not just mean another Democratic presidency. It would mean the loss of what Taft and then Goldwater made possible — a conservative party as a constant presence in American politics. It is possible Trump will not win any primary, and that by the middle of March our long national embarrassment will be over. But this avatar of unfettered government and executive authoritarianism has mesmerized a large portion of Republicans for six months. The larger portion should understand this: One hundred and four years of history is in the balance. If Trump is the Republican nominee in 2016, there might not be a conservative party in 2020 either. — George Will is a Pulitzer Prize–winning syndicated columnist. © 2015 The Washington Post

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428906/donald-trump-threat-republican-party
214  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces, 2015, worst year ever on: December 24, 2015, 09:26:06 AM
Dave Barry, Miami Herald, Pulitzer Prize winner, argues that 2015 was worse than 1347 when the Bubonic Plague killed much of humanity and backs it up with facts mixed with humor including a month by month recap starting with January when the biggest story on earth was the below regulation air pressure of a Tom Brady football.

http://www.miamiherald.com/living/liv-columns-blogs/dave-barry/article51119880.html
215  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Way Forward for the American Creed on: December 24, 2015, 09:17:48 AM
From another thread:

American Creed= Free minds, free markets, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of contract, right of self-defense (hence guns and knives, etc) property rights, privacy, all connected with responsibility for the consequences of one's action.  All this from our Creator, not the State nor majority vote.

Simple and brilliant.  Not too many writers since the Founders ever stop and express this so clearly.

I would like to share this with my daughter pondering how to approach the issues as she comes out of a confusion called college.  Share this with Bigdog too.  He runs into a few young people.  And Conrad.  

Someone please tell the Syrian refugees and the people crossing our border, America isn't just a place on the map, it is a creed we share.

Creed =  a set of beliefs that guide one's actions.
216  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: December 24, 2015, 09:16:28 AM
American Creed= Free minds, free markets, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of contract, right of self-defense (hence guns and knives, etc) property rights, privacy, all connected with responsibility for the consequences of one's action.  All this from our Creator, not the State nor majority vote.

Simple and brilliant.  Not too many writers since the Founders ever stop and express this so clearly.

I would like to share this with my daughter pondering how to approach the issues as she comes out of a confusion called college.  Share this with Bigdog too.  He runs into a few young people.  And Conrad. 

Someone please tell the Syrian refugees and the people crossing our border, America isn't just a place on the map, it is a creed we share.

Creed =  a set of beliefs that guide one's actions.
217  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential on: December 24, 2015, 08:51:50 AM
Dick is fun to read and he does sometimes have a unique take but this:
"Ominous implications for Hillary"
Yeah sure.  I'm holding my breath....

Hillary copying Bernie on policy and philosophy while potentially losing Iowa and NH to him and yet still beating the R front runner is a reminder to conservatives of how far we have NOT come over the last decade of liberal failure.

A little more detail on that CNN poll favoring Trump.  If you want to win the election you need to pick the guy at 10%, not 39%.  How that is going to happen, I have no idea...  Aren't we a bunch of tough conservatives, not forgiving Rubio for his gang of 8 error, and willing to spend the next decade living the government involved 'Life of Julia' under Pres. Hillary Clinton while she packs the Supreme Court with nine young liberals who could give a rat's ass about our creed and former rights.
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton   CNN/ORC   Clinton 49, Trump 47   Clinton +2
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton   CNN/ORC   Clinton 46, Cruz 48   Cruz +2
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton   CNN/ORC   Rubio 49, Clinton 46   Rubio +3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

Remember, this was a poll favorable to Trump, and undercounting Rubio, 39-10!
218  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential on: December 23, 2015, 04:14:38 PM
DMG,
I will reply to your posts later. Time to do some work.

Understood.  Just voicing my own frustrations.

There is no doubt that Trump is connecting with people on their problems.   I question his solutions.

I ran a for-rent ad for a nice condo in Florida and got no response in 3 weeks.  I ran a craigslist ad offering to pay someone here $20 to serve eviction papers today and got 20 replies in 10 hours counting overnight.  Tried to reach and get someone to do it and still can't get it arranged.  Strange world and strange economy we live in.  No one outside of the rich has money and no one it seems is willing to go out of their way to earn a little.

Everyone i meet in some parts of my life, sports etc., seems to be top 1% rich and everyone I meet in other parts of my life, rentals etc. seems to be dead broke.  What I see is motivation and work-ethic inequality.
219  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential, low ceiling is still his problem on: December 23, 2015, 03:13:23 PM
Funny that he runs from inside the party and brings new people in - to destroy it.  Since he is winning in this party, why not reform it from the inside.  Obama is the de facto head of the Dem party.  What is his pull and influence versus Debby Blabbermouth?  Others in the R party are 'plotting' to get their own guy elected, how do you spell wah, wah for crying victimhood?  Meanwhile the candidate offers silence on the other issues important to people like me and hides from specifics on his own issues.  He won't even have to wiggle to shake free of conservatism in the general election.  He never claimed to be one.

Speaking of schlongs, he alternatively could have had the balls to run from outside the two parties in the first place rather than using the building that someone else built.

There has always (in my lifetime) been a contest between some form of RINOs who act like Democrats to get reelected and conservatives.  ( A Choice Not an Echo, 1964, written by a Trump supporter).  Washington isn't run the way we would like because we haven't been winning enough primaries and elections.

And if you do want to win, don't intentionally alienate 60% of the people.

Trump's problems are his own doing and they are the flip side of his strengths.  Like Jeb but in a different way, he is the one who chooses to not be on my side.
220  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: December 23, 2015, 02:53:43 PM
quote author=ppulatie
My story........

Thank you for posting that, great story.  I didn't pick up on the southern accent in your writing.    wink
221  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential on: December 23, 2015, 02:49:06 PM
So Jeff Greenfield who does not like Trump is not credible.  

Would it have made any difference if Trump had said that Hillary got "screwed" in the election? Probably for the Trump haters..............but for the working class, no.

Actually, Trump's comment was GREAT. He uses a throw away line and the entire media is once again talking about it. More free publicity. Bet the rest of the candidates wish they were getting the publicity. (BTW, publicity is good even if it sounds bad. In this case, it just cements Trump supporters to him. Others will find the whole thing just another media hit job, and only the Trump deniers will jump on it.)

How many people do you actually think knew what schlong meant? Even more, how many really care? And if the media had not jumped on it, few would even know that the statement was ever made.

This is just another diversionary tactic to distract from what Trump is saying because the media and the elitists do not want their apple cart disrupted. Same as with Megyn Kelly and the bleeding comment.  If you remember, Trump had previously made the same comment about a Fox male anchor.  (So maybe the anchor was transgendered.) No one made a fuss at that time. Just when it was the Ice Princess Prima Donna Kelly.

Yes, let's bring back dignity with some weak kneed RINO candidate. That way, no one will pay attention to what is being passed that screws the middle class over again and again.

Let's also keep campaigning on subjects that will never be changed:

1. Abortion. It is here to stay, but it makes a good distraction from what is otherwise going on, and it keeps generating money for those on each side of the issue.

2. Defunding Planned Parenthood. Another distraction which will never be changed, but keeps bringing in money.

3. Balanced budget. Something else that will never be changed, except with tax increases. (Yeah, I know...Trump.)

4. Repeal of ObamaCare. It can never be fully repealed, only modified. After all, there are all these new people with insurance who are subsidized and if repealed, what happens there? Does one simply forget about that now?

5.  Social Security reform. Neither side has the guts to do what is needed, so it will remain the same. But it does remain as another election distraction.

6. Immigration reform. Nothing substantial going to happen there. COC wants the cheap labor.

7. Military spending........more distraction. And more crony capitalism. Think the F-35 brought in to also serve as a replacement for the A-10. No military leader is going to take an F-35 and put it into a Close Air Support role. Too much danger of losing them to ground fire and other weapon systems. That is, even if it can dogfight.

I could go on and on but all of this stuff is designed to keep the American public divided and separated. That way, the DC elites and Wall Street can continue to reap the benefits at the expense of the people.

You keep defining a coalition less than 50%.  Abortion IS a big deal.  Trump gets that or it wouldn't have been worth his flip-flop.

Defunding Planned Parenthood is fundamental to any positive change on about a dozen levels, one being equal protection under the law if you are not concerned with the illegality and morality of killing and selling off body parts.  It is crony capitalism which is banned in my interpretation of the constitution.  It is also the state establishing a religion.

Megyn Kelly didn't deserve that and you have to be deep into the political world to know beyond that Fox is far right to know that they aren't.  Trump brought on the accusation himself and then demonstrated it.

Schlonging and giving and getting a Lewinski are terms and visions that ought not come out of the Oval Office.  This is 'GREAT' if distraction instead of action is the objective.  " It just cements Trump supporters to him."  Perfect if again your goal is a coaltion far below 50%.  He gets attention and it divides instead of unites.  I know the polls yet keep getting reminded that (as a 1%er says) Trump isn't a serious candidate.

"How many people do you actually think knew what schlong meant?"  - Unlike Crafty, I was born and raised in the midwest, hardly knew a Jew in my childhood, don't speak Hebrew, but I know what schlong is.  Yes he could have said she got fucked or screwed.  Raped is more the meaning; she didn't consent to what Barack did to her in 2008.  It's all still locker room or playground stuff, not Oval Office material.

Let's bring back "Weak kneed RINOs."   - Again, you are capable of arguing against more than an imaginary straw man.  Cruz is a solid conservative, an anti-RINO and Rubio is anything but weak kneed.  He is authentic, tea party, disagrees with you on the edges of only one (important) issue, and is the best communicator in a generation, many say.  

Obamcare is going to fundamentally changed - even if we let Bernie Sanders do it.

Immigration reform is going to happen - unless we nominate someone who loses to Hillary.

Military spending is more than a distraction.  We are disarming while enemies are arming and proliferating.

"all of this stuff is designed to keep the American public divided and separated"  - I know you mean that but it is easily turned around to describe almost everything Trump is saying.

Why not answer two questions on Trump and please link his answer:

a)  If you count families, children etc of the illegals, the number kicked around is 20 million people living among us.  It is his marquee issue, so show us where he specifies how many he will actually round up and send home and exactly how will it be done.  Rubio asks what to do with people who have been here 10-12 years of more which I believe is 60% of them.  What evidence is there to make us believe Trump will send any or all of them home?  When he says, they all go with no answer to how, I don't count that as a serious answer or policy, just a sure way to lose the general election and ensure they all stay.

b)  What are the limits that stop abuse of the private takings clause of Trump's imaginary constitution it the 4th, 5th and 9th amendments of the Bill of Rights no longer apply.  (About my 6th time trying to get this answered.)  What kind of justices will he appoint that also have their own constitution and what else does it say or not say in it?
222  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential on: December 23, 2015, 02:11:34 PM
Bush and his voter (singular) aren't going to start a new party.  Nobody even wants his endorsement.

Bill Kristol is an individual with freedom of speech, not an official of the Republican party.

As stated with Trump, something like 44 states have a loser law where you can run and lose on the ballot in one party in the primary and then get on the ballot of another party in the general election.  Who does that leave, Romney, Ford, Dole?

PP is successfully pushing over straw men.   )
223  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential, who is the betting favorite? on: December 23, 2015, 02:06:30 PM
Strangely, while another guy leads in the Republican polls, Rubio still leads in betting odds, where professionals put their money on the eventual outcome. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

All the candidates seem to be treating Marco Rubio as the front runner as well:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/marco-rubios-opponents-treating-him-like-the-front-runner/article/2578979
224  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Abortion, Obama: That is a child in the womb! Feed it better. on: December 23, 2015, 10:26:17 AM
First a small footnote,  200,000 abortions 'performed' since the last post in this thread 2 months ago, with black children three times as likely to be killed as white children.  Black lives matter, whatever, I digress...


It was interesting to catch Justice Breyer a few years back calling the woman involved in an abortion a "mother', begging the question, mother of what?

Now we have Pres Obama's administration referring to the unborn as a child - when it involves increased federal spending on social programs.  (There is a human in there!)

This should go under cognitive dissonance of the left but I will keep it in its subject thread.

Same President previously called a fetus that survives an abortion a child and corrected himself, it is a "fetus living outside the womb".  Good grief.

If you call them children, no one would be allowed to kill them, and that is the religion of the left.  Science, photography, DNA and common sense be damned.


Whoever proofread the new White House paper on food stamps must not have been briefed on this argument.

The paper says women are "mothers" while still only pregnant. And one of the paper's key points -- printed in bold in the executive summary -- is: The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program's "positive impact on children begins even before birth and lasts well beyond their childhood years."  (Who knew?!!)

The paper elaborates: "Recent research focusing on the rollout of the Food Stamp Program in the 1960s and 1970s shows the benefits begin even before a child is born: mothers who receive Food Stamps during pregnancy have a reduced incidence of low-birth weight babies by between 5 and 12 percent."  (Mother of what?  It's a baby in there??!!)

http://townhall.com/columnists/terryjeffrey/2015/12/23/white-house-inadvertently-admits-that-a-child-is-a-child-even-before-birth-n2096482/page/full


If we had more free food assistance, we would have healthier body parts for the taxpayer funded industry of growing and harvesting small humans for profit.  Maybe we can balance the budget and fix healthcare with higher quality and healthier, aborted fetus organs...
225  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: December 23, 2015, 09:57:56 AM
One commentator observed last week, Trump's supporters are the angriest about the direction of the country, rightfully so, really they've had it with both parties.  PP, agree?  As an aside, that was Perot's strength too, pointing out what was wrong with both sides.

Secondly this commentator questioned, do we make our best decisions when we're angry?  No , we don't.

Expressing support for Trump in the year before the election is a great way of telling both parties how sick and tired you are about how things are going in Washington.

Actually picking someone who can win when you vote in your caucus or primary is a way of doing something about it.
226  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Cognitive Dissonance of the left on: December 23, 2015, 09:51:24 AM
"Polls shows 59% think Hillary is dishonest and 35% think she is [not].
The scary part is 35 refuse to admit the truth.
If the 35% said she is dishonest but that hey just don't care than that would give me more hope.  What this suggests is that 35% of people are outright liars"


More like they believe the ends justify the means, which is fundamental to leftist governance.  And give them credit for being smart enough that 35% recognize a trick question in a poll.  If they answered truthfully it would hurt their candidate.

In another measure, 23% say we are headed in the right direction (that number should be zero) and 66% say we are headed in the wrong direction (that number should be 100%).

This society has been headed down a leftist path since the 60s with brief interruptions, and most clearly headed left since the election of 2006 of the Pelos-Reid-Obama-Hillary majorities in congress and the 2008 election of Pres. Obama.  The current budget proves leftists still control Washington and every Republican and Democrat knows it.  Hillary is running to keep us on this same path, improve the path, and all Republicans are running at least in words to change the direction of the country.  Yet the general election matchups are almost even, indicating a major problem with our brand name - we are seen as a worse choice than being headed in the wrong direction.

To beat leftism today, you will need the best communicator in a generation (Reagan was an example), you need to be strong but perceived as compassionate ("he/she cares about people like me"), commit virtually no unforced errors, and still need a lot of luck.  And if you win, to stay in power when all the institutions of media, education and the rest are against you, you need positive results fast.  Had Reagan's reelection been one year earlier while the economy was barely recovering, his 49 state win could easily have been a loss.


227  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential on: December 23, 2015, 09:22:39 AM
Yes, he clearly is saying, penetrated by a penis, orifice unspecified.

This is a gender discriminatory term as a woman could not be at the other end of a schlonging without artificial or surgical adaptation. 

Terrible gender bigotry with the analogy in that the male end is associated with the winning and the female side with losing, getting schlonged.

Along with Megyn Kelly "bleeding out of wherever", is Trump bringing dignity back?  Not so much!  Not exactly the return of Reagan or even George W to the White House.  Even Jimmy Carter was so clean that the admission of lust became a major scandal.


Previous usage Trump can point to for cover:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yurpga7CXDE
NPR in their Geraldine Ferraro obit.


228  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: political education on: December 22, 2015, 08:52:34 PM
Huge billboard on Broadway today in leftist north Minneapolis says "77% of black kids read below grade level in Minneapolis"
  - Paid for by 'Better Ed' supporting school choice.  http://www.better-ed.org/

BTW, Minnesota usually leads the nation in test scores, so it can't be the weather.
Our school district 14 miles away has a 99% graduation rate and a 92% on-to-college rate.

Your public teachers union dollars at work.  They all support Hillary and the status quo.
7 years into the Obama-Hillary reform agenda, those are your results.
I bet the kids know their transgender studies and climate change forward, backward and sideways.
I wonder what percent know who Christmas is named after.
Zero percent could tell you who was the first supply side economist.
229  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential on: December 22, 2015, 08:23:49 PM
What makes you think Trump might will open his mouth and insert his foot sometime over the 6-8 mos between when he is the nominee of he wins the states he is leading in and the general election?  Just because he does that now on a regular basis...

Today Trump said Hillary got schlonged in 2008.  Yes she did but that's not what the leading candidate for President is supposed to say.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/12/22/donald-trumps-schlonged-a-linguistic-investigation/
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/donald-trump-chooses-odd-yiddish-vulgarity-to-slam-hillary-clinton/ar-BBnOPb4?li=BBnbcA1&ocid=wispr

230  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Cognitive Dissonance of the left on: December 22, 2015, 12:37:38 PM
I hate to say it, but very often feel the same way.  I don't want to be ruled by them and I don't want them to have to live under my ideas against their will either.
231  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: December 22, 2015, 12:36:03 PM
A much bigger crowd got Obama all wrong in 2008.  (Doesn't mean Trump is wrong.)

We were going to heal the earth, make peace between the races and the religions, our enemies would see our goodness and our young people would see amazing opportunities.  We were going to control guns, raise wages, lower the cost of healthcare.  They were all wrong.  Those policies had the opposite effect.
232  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Cognitive Dissonance of the left, and Christmas on: December 22, 2015, 12:24:07 PM
Minneapolis is a Democrat city in a Democrat county in a Democrat state in a Democrat country.  They can't wait to shut down a nativity scene anywhere near public property, consider a wreath the 'establishment of religion', can't have enough distance between church and state, send out notices in Arabic, and are in complete denial that we are a country founded on a Judeo-Christian ethics.

Nonetheless, they went out of their way to inform me today that eviction notices cannot be served on Friday, Christmas Day.

What's up with Friday if you are an atheist.  Every militant leftist should go to work at the usual time.
233  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: December 22, 2015, 11:52:55 AM
Gotta keep you honest.

Seriously.......you only know one person supporting Trump?

I wonder how many people you know that actually do support Trump, but are afraid to say so. I have noticed that people are afraid to mention their support for him, until another supporter comes forward. Then you hear the sigh of relief that they are not alone.

My cousins in Iowa fit the profile - so I am afraid to ask.

Interesting to hear how anti-Trump the college campus is even though my daughter goes to a less liberal school than most.  It would be pathetic to lose the youth vote to Hillary when we have a younger, more dynamic candidate available to reach out to them.  Is Hillary and 4-8 more years of the same really what is best for the 18-34 crowd?  Is it what is best for blacks and Hispanics?  Let's get serious and reach these people with a message that resonates.
234  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: December 22, 2015, 11:04:49 AM
But it is a measure of support and motivation.

Of course, we could look at Jeb and his "rallies". They can be held in a hotel restroom.

Not the main hotel restroom either.  )

It reminds me of the precinct caucus here.  We have an all Republican town on the outskirts of Minneapolis with a population 1400.  We get no caucus turnout, no volunteer workers and no enthusiasm for the party, real conservatives or RINOs.  Yet just a small boost in turnout here would have prevented the Al Franken false recount, prevented the Dems from getting their 60th Senator, and stopped Obamacare before it was ever deemed passed.

Got to hand it to the Trump supporters for showing they care.  The one I know is doing a excellent job of defending and supporting him!
235  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: December 22, 2015, 09:57:37 AM
For DMG and CD, ... packed to the rafters.......


Impressive but not quite Grant Park, 2008.  Crowds can and often do get it wrong.


Unfair comparison here, but crowd enthusiasm is not always the best measure of good policies:
236  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential on: December 22, 2015, 09:46:43 AM
Pat,  Good points but I already conceded they were underpolling Trump supporters.    wink

More interesting is to ponder why Sanders is performing better than Clinton against Trump.
237  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Middle East: War, Peace, and SNAFU, TARFU, and FUBAR on: December 22, 2015, 09:41:29 AM
Also possible is that Seymour Hersh has this wrong even though Obummer has been on the side of the Caliphate.
Interesting rebuttal of sorts here on liberal site Vox, mostly saying the story is weakly sourced, Hersch has been unsubstantiated on other stories lately, and most militarily leaders would resign rather than actively undermine a President's policies.
http://www.vox.com/2015/12/21/10634002/seymour-hersh-syria-joint-chiefs
238  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Immigration issues on: December 22, 2015, 09:25:42 AM
Some powerful words thrown around in the immigration debate:

Undocumented
Illegal
Deportation
Mass deportation
Self deportation
Border security
Fence
Wall
Visa numbers
Vetting
Visa Overstays
Comprehensive Reform
Amnesty
Legalization
Path to Citizenship

A few comments addressing some of the above:

Undocumented is Orwellian liberal-speak.  They didn't misplace their papers, they snuck in or overstayed in violation of our law.  That we are now debating it means we allowed it.  Now we have to deal with it.

Mass deportation for the most part isn't going to happen with people who are otherwise law-abiding, productive and long established here.  Those who say otherwise need to describe specifically how they will accomplish mass deportation and how that policy is a general election winner.  Selective, immediate deportation is more plausible.  Who is it that you would round up if elected and how would you do it?  We all deserve to know.

Visa overstays need to be treated like illegal border crossings.  When we don't force an immediate turnback is when this problem festers and we lose.

Amnesty means forgiving the crime with no penalty.  Since it is easy to throw in either a small or substantial penalty in legalization negotiations, the term has no meaning, is widely mis-used and is designed to inflame the debate or impugn the one accused of favoring it.

Legalization equals Citizenship in a slightly more drawn out way.  If you allow large numbers of illegals to become legal, stay permanently and not have a 'path to citizenship', then the Democrats win three times.  These future Dem voters are no longer illegal.  Dems keep the issue to keep pounding Republicans on, and anyone living here legally and permanently and not allowed to vote is therefore a victim of discrimination so they will eventually win that 'right' and be even more loyal to Democrats by the time they do.

Let's argue out the policy proposal differences on realistic, political terms.
239  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Immigration issues - Iran Deal Prevents Restrictions on Immigration on: December 22, 2015, 08:57:38 AM

Iran deal is unsigned and non-binding.  Anything the Obama administraion gives away in or outside the agreement is by choice.
240  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential, Ramesh Ponnuru, Cruz v Rubio on: December 22, 2015, 08:55:33 AM
A pretty good summary of this big war over small differences on three fronts (even though he discloses being a friend of Cruz for two decades).

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428855/ted-cruz-marco-rubio-republican-primary-fight
241  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Pay No Attention to the Disappearing Economic Indicators on: December 22, 2015, 08:46:22 AM
Hmm, Chinese economic indicator reports are suddenly not being issued:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-21/china-loses-another-economic-indicator-as-minxin-suspends-pmi
Perhaps vestiges of a command economy remain and, if so, what does this signal censorship bode?
More or less crooked than the stats our government feeds us?

We keep calculating and reporting indicators known to be false and they censor indicators that might reveal truth.

In retaliation for Chinese hacking and patent violations maybe we can set up broadcast stations on the disputed islands and send out information the Chinese government is censoring from the Chinese people.
242  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / 2016 Presidential Undersampling Trump Supporter?, Sanders leads Trump by 13 pts on: December 22, 2015, 08:34:31 AM
Isn't that what we call it when Trump loses a third of his support in 2-3 days?

Quinnipiac has Trump back in the 20s, near his 'ceiling'.  Cruz almost within the margin of error.  Rubio flat but still relevant in third place.

Cruz and Rubio tied and within one point of Clinton.

Trump loses to Clinton by 7 points and Trump loses to Bernie Sanders by 13 points.

Election Polls,  Tuesday, December 22
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac   Clinton 47, Trump 40   Clinton +7
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac   Clinton 44, Cruz 44   Tie
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac   Rubio 43, Clinton 44   Clinton +1
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders   Quinnipiac   Sanders 51, Trump 38   Sanders +13
General Election: Cruz vs. Sanders   Quinnipiac   Sanders 43, Cruz 44   Cruz +1
General Election: Rubio vs. Sanders   Quinnipiac   Rubio 45, Sanders 42   Rubio +3
243  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Trump and his 'Marketing' challenge on: December 21, 2015, 12:30:24 PM
PP made a long, thoughtful post on 2016 Presidential recently about marketing:
http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=2419.msg92581#msg92581

The Trump product IS marketing.

He won't have different marketing for the general election, he will be selling a different product, IMHO.

At his launch where he had to pay people to attend, he boldly announced an all out war on illegal immigration out of the blue, addressing an unserved market that everyone else either feared or underestimated.  The rest of his product is his personality, having the boldness to say things that excite some and shock the rest.  Also his product is that he is a better candidate and sharper on all issues than expected.  Not better and sharper than the others, but better than expected.

Events have turned his way.  Immigrants, foreigners and illegals have attacked us in a way that is exaggerated by media coverage.  (14 deaths in San Bern compares with how many murders in Chicago, how many abortions, how many traffic fatalities, etc.)

Even though he leads by almost triple, none of us here see how he gets to the nomination.  When he doubles down on what got him this far he doubles down on negatives and opposition too.  He also carries a constant risk of committing a gaffe or foot in mouth bigger than the ones we have seen so far as he continues.  The nuclear triad is a gotcha question, really?

Also the more he is himself in the way it got him this far, the more his general election number fail him, and those HAVE TO improve if he wants the 60% non-Trump side of the party to start breaking his way.

So there is no visible path for him to win (and no visible path for the others either at this point).  But let's say he gets the nomination since he is so far out in front.  Then what?

I know what happens next.  He guilts R's into supporting him no matter what he says while he shifts back to his other self who has said all along, I am independent not a Republican.  I've always identified more as a Democrat, just not a Bernie Sanders and new-Hillary Socialiast-Democrat.  So he is the perfect crossover, (Republican sellout) candidate.  He has a chance to win because Hillary really is that bad.

Pat worries that Rubio will be a sellout.  I believe Trump won't have to sellout to be a sellout to switch sides.  He won't even deport a single otherwise law abiding illegal, never really said he would, at least not when pressed for specifics.  He never said he would shrink government.  He supports greater powers for government.  He will build the biggest and strongest government we have ever seen.  He has been all over the map on taxes and that goes through congress anyway.  If Republicans are weak other than Trump, the Senate goes to the Dems anyway.  Obamacare stays, new taxes to 'balance the budget' and spending at levels that would John Boehner blush.  Affirmative action and all leftist social issues?  No problem.

How will we know if he betrays us.

---------------------------------------
"... a mature product stage should soon materialize and the new product brought in.

...he came in as a new product, saying the things that others were afraid to say, but believed. He gained initial support, but still garnered heavy resistance. Once it was confirmed that he was in to stay, support increased because the product was gaining acceptance and credibility.

Promotional marketing continued with a massive media campaign, funded by the media itself, increasing product exposure and gaining more support. Product comparison  tests (the debates) further cemented the differences over competing products, gaining further acceptance.  Current events (San Bermardino) reflected a further need for the product and support edged upward.

Now, the promotional phase has ended so a new marketing strategy must be implemented to keep from going stale and maturing.  There is evidence of it already being implemented……..

1.   The statement that the product would not challenge as a 3rd party candidate, but would work and believed in the party.

2.   A mellowing of statements in rallies and showing a more subdued personality that previously exhibited.

3.   Smaller Town Hall meetings where in more intimate settings, the products true personality showed through.

4.   Today’s statement that the product would be less devisive.

5.   Going after the other Party candidate.

The purpose of these changes are to expand market segment and favorability.

What is interesting is that he is now transitioning himself to being the Party Leader. This transition is being helped by the other candidates themselves by echoing his positions after having had other positions.  

Interesting also is that this transition is taking place while he is still gaining support. He is doing this before he hits the mature stage, the mark of a master marketeer. ..."
244  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Trump and his money problems continued. ) on: December 21, 2015, 11:36:52 AM
Doing my own math for Trump if he suddenly wants to fund his campaign with small contributions instead of self funding:

There are no more than 120,000,000 voters paying attention right now (really about a tenth of that).
40% of those are Republican and 30% of those support Trump. (adjust slightly to get your own result)
It would take a $70 contribution from everyone of those 14.4 million to raise the billion he needs.
Not going to happen, so now he needs big donors just like everyone else, or to do it without money, or the unthinkable, sell of Trump assets.  (not going to happen, and even it did the perception is that the big money buyer is funding his campaign.)
245  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential on: December 21, 2015, 11:19:06 AM
You are right. With Mrs. Graham out, Trump is finished..............again..................and again..................and again..........................

Rubio is hoping and praying he doesn't get the endorsement of Graham and Bush.
246  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Donald Trump on: December 21, 2015, 11:14:00 AM
Speaking of Trump and Trump getting out, this of course comes from the same people who said he would get out earlier over and over etc.  But it is true that he has not yet shown a willingness to put his own money into it.   I know it's expensive to fly a 757 around but he is also only doing his own, named events, called it in for Meet the Press yesterday (tacky), for example.  He says he is worth what, 11 billion?  That probably means 6-8 billion on an average day, and 95-99% of that not liquid.  Further it has to be costing him to be away from the business unless he was just a figurehead and his business runs on cruise control anyway, and no business does.   You can't do any good government takings while you're running for President.  Offsetting that on the positive side is that he is getting the biggest name promotion possible.  Offsetting that on the negative is that properties in Dubai etc aren't going to be unaffected by his call to keep all Muslims out of all western countries starting with the United States.  His call to round up Mexicans in this country and send them back hurts him there, and his call to threaten trade wars hurts him there and elsewhere.  Trump has to be making many calculations everyday.  He did not know it would go this far.

This is way too much fun for him now and he is still leading in the nomination contest and still increasing his lead, so he isn't about to drop.  But when the momentum turns against him, and it will, these things always tighten up, being a shrewd businessman, he will see the writing on the wall first before we do and poof, he will say hey, I'm a great man, I made my point, and now have better things to do.  Also he is 69, pushing 70, like Hillary.  This can't be that easy and parts of it aren't fun.   Shifting away from being himself to conventionalizing to be more acceptable to more people will NOT be fun and it won't work. Serving one term and handing it back to the Dems is of no use either.  Serving two terms plus two years campaigning is a BIG part of any President's life, even bigger than running TCCE, Trump CronyCapitalism Enterprises.  It is crazy to start the hardest job and most demanding job in the world in your 70s IMHO.  And he is smart enough to know that if you do it half-assed, you will be a failure deserving of all the insults he throws at Obama, Hillary and everyone else.

This is going to get interesting (if it isn't already).
247  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: In case no one notices on: December 21, 2015, 09:56:57 AM
In case no one notices, Lindsay Graham has dropped out of the race.

This changes everything.
248  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: more propaganda on: December 20, 2015, 09:40:50 PM
Gotta love the phony poses Obama does when he is near Putin.  You know the looks of consternation or leaning in closely with stern facial expressions for the cameras.  Remember the liberal psychologists advising Bill Clinton to have that phony thing he did with his lower lip?
Here is Brock with the same phony lower lip thing:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/obama-visits-san-bernardino-families



I wonder what he paid the Clinton's for the right to use that.
249  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Phyllis Schlafly: "Trump Is America's Last Hope" on: December 20, 2015, 09:35:29 PM
I respect and admire Phyllis Schlafly, a family friend who I agree with on all but a couple of issues.  She is a Pat Buchanon conservative, previous endorsements that always resulted in a Clinton being elected.  Leans toward protectionism 'fair trade' over 'free trade' and tends to oppose all trade bills.  Thrilled over his TPP opposition and probably right about it. The difference being that I'm sure she has read it and Trump hasn't.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Buchanan
250  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2016 Presidential on: December 20, 2015, 06:02:50 PM
"If you haven't watch Trump rallies, notice in the video the pull he has. Where is pull like that for Hillary, Cruz, Rubio?"
"... where his support exists now?"

No doubt DT was the man of the year - 2015.  Bummer for him it didn't happen to be an election year.    )

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