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4051  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Issues in the American Creed (Constitutional Law and related matters) on: September 03, 2013, 11:01:38 AM
"What am I missing?"

"The consistent SC move away from the from the Commerce Clause cases that you and GM cite."
------------------

Point well taken.  I know Roberts made a point about the commerce clause but I don't see how that translated into any new limit or pullback on any federal government power.  The movement is most certainly in the other direction.

Rather than regulating commerce, the movement in government (ACA for example) is toward coercive paternalism, which was not a founding principle.

BD, I hope the new school year is starting out well for you.
4052  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Syria on: September 03, 2013, 10:30:44 AM
OK,  so what when Jordan's king falls and the Palestinians take over and Israel is beset from Lebanon, the West Bank, Gaza, and Jordan (all aided by Iran)?  What when Iran goes nuke and much of the Arab world with it?  What when Israel tries to take out Iran's nukes? 

I don't see who are the good guys in Syria so I don't support this intervention or tipping the balance.  I support containment and improving our own readiness.  But if I were in congress I think I would vote for authorization of use of force and put this right back on the President to do (or not do) the right thing based on best judgment of the advice and information he is getting from our intelligence and our military.  There is so much we don't know from here.  The rebels have a history with Sarin gas too, for example.  But I would not want the Commander in Chief's hands tied due to the concerns well-articulated above.

Striking the nuclear facilities in Iran, adding support for the King of Jordan, having Israel's back, these are responses too.  Much of what is happening in Syria is not about us.

Elephant in the room:  If intervention (in Syria) is right, for Syria, for the region and for the world, then the structure and composition of the UN Security Council is wrong. The moral compass of 2013 planet earth goes through Putin and the oppressors in the Chinese ruling committee?!  Are we joking?  What is our Nobel prize winning, Befuddlement in Chief going to do about THAT?    (nothing)
4053  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Way Forward for the American Creed on: September 03, 2013, 10:02:23 AM
"under Ronald Reagan's policies, median African American household incomes increased by 84 percent"

"The poverty rate dropped during the 1980s from 14 percent down to 11.6 percent."

"The black unemployment rate dropped by 9 percentage points."

"The number of black-owned businesses increased by 38 percent"
-----------------------------------------------------

Market capitalism based on economic freedom is the best and only way of moving large numbers of people from poverty to prosperity.

How do we communicate that better is the question.  We post here and Mona Charen gets published in many places but we are reaching ourselves mostly, preaching to the choir not reaching the people who are unemployed, in poverty or in need of or in search of a better life.

The answer in part is more charismatic leaders, a clearer message, make fewer errors and not allow ourselves to get distracted and off-message.  But we also need to reach into more venues, not just the same audience over and over.  We need to confront the Democrat demographic with the facts in more persuasive ways.

One big place we lose is the inner city.  Democrats own the message and now own the get out the vote operation.  Their message is vote Dem because Republicans want to take away what you have, free this and free that, from food stamps to housing vouchers, disability checks, Grandma's meds and your 'Obama' cell phone. They want you to be poor and themselves to be rich.  If Republicans win you will lose they are told, but in fact, Dems are taking away your choices and opportunities while Republicans support a well funded safety net - just not in place of the American Dream.

4054  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Middle East: War, Peace, and SNAFU, TARFU, and FUBAR on: September 02, 2013, 12:22:47 AM
"BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS:  WHAT SHOULD AMERICA DO NOW?

1) Suck up the complete loss of face and do nothing?
2) Do something vapid and meaningless in order to pretend to save the face of our clueless CiC and our nation
3) Do something substantial that genuinely weakens and/or takes down Assad?
4) Or?

ALL OF THESE HAVE HIDEOUS POSSIBLE OUTCOMES , , , but the fight will be what the fight will be.  WHAT SHOULD AMERICA DO NOW?

Rachel posted a very relevant article in the Israel thread today-- the real question here is Iran and its nuke program..."


My thoughts at the moment:  Obama is taking it to Congress as his way of getting out of it.  Some people I highly respect favor intervention in Syria, Bret Stephens, WSJ, is one:  http://www.hughhewitt.com/wall-street-journals-bret-stephens-making-passionate-case-intervention-syria/

Two reasons to oppose that view.  The outcome in Syria yes could become worse for us than the way things are, and we have 3 more years with no Commander in Chief.  This no time to bite off what we can't chew.

I favor specific strikes on known WMD stockpiles of sworn enemies - anywhere.  That is different than a provocative, 'shot across the bow'.

Bait and switch:  Our response to Syria should be to take out nuclear facilities in Iran - right now - if a plan is in place to do that successfully.  N.K. too.  It would send a message to Assad (and others), plus Iran supports the Syrian regime. 

Saving face:  Rather than breaking our promises, we are just falling a behind on our work.  So many tyrants - so little time.
4055  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Natural Gas buildout for transportation on: August 31, 2013, 02:26:35 PM
CCP,  Great stuff, this is a big deal IMO.  NG is at least 30% cleaner than gasoline and it is American-made or North American made if we can keep the fracking revolution alive.  50% of American homes already have a pipeline hooked up.

Also if we completed the Yucca Mountain facility and built new, clean, safe nuclear facilities in this country, our CO2 output would drop even further and become a model for the world.  Environmentalists would have to find productive work - another boost for the economy.
4056  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Politics of Health Care on: August 31, 2013, 10:33:16 AM
The key now for Obamacare's success is to get young people to sign up.

Karl Rove's Crossroads group put out this helpful ad.



4057  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: European matters - European threat levels elevated? on: August 31, 2013, 08:58:25 AM
News from our allies...

ALERTS TO THREATS
IN 2013 EUROPE    (powerlineblog.com)

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent events in Syria and have therefore raised their security level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.” The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorized from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

The Scots have raised their threat level from “Pissed Off” to “Let’s get the Bastards.” They don’t have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its terror alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France ‘s white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country’s military capability.

Italy has increased the alert level from “Shout Loudly and Excitedly” to “Elaborate Military Posturing.” Two more levels remain: “Ineffective Combat Operations” and “Change Sides.”

The Germans have increased their alert state from “Disdainful Arrogance” to “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs.” They also have two higher levels: “Invade a Neighbour” and “Lose.”

Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels ..

The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

Australia, meanwhile, has raised its security level from “No worries” to “She’ll be right, Mate.” Two more escalation levels remain: “Crikey! I think we’ll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!” and “The barbie is cancelled.” So far no situation has ever warranted use of the last final escalation level.

And as a final thought – Greece is collapsing, the Iranians are getting aggressive, and Rome is in disarray. Welcome back to 430 BC.
4058  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: India - slowest rate of growth since 2009 on: August 30, 2013, 11:48:37 PM
Slowdowns in China and India don't help us, nor does our stagnation help them.
-----------
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/08/30/as-gdp-slips-pm-attempts-to-restore-confidence-in-indias-economy/

India’s GDP growth for the April to June quarter was a dismal 4.4 percent, the government said today. It was the slowest rate of growth since 2009. ”It was a weaker performance than most economists had been expecting,” the BBC reports, “and was a slowdown from the first three months of the year, when growth was 4.8%.”


4059  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Government spending, deficit, and budget process: David Malpass on: August 30, 2013, 05:12:21 PM
Optimism or impending train wreck?  You make the call.  The deficit is falling temporarily and then forecast to skyrocket.
------------

On their present course, spending and debt are forecast to rise sharply starting in 2015, even with severe underfunding of national defense. Government health-care spending will more than double over the next decade to $1.8 trillion annually in 2023, while annual debt-service costs will quadruple to $823 billion as interest rates normalize.

Over the last century, government's fiscal machinery has been mostly gas pedal, little brake. In 1913, the 16th Amendment gave Washington open-ended power to tax income and borrow against it, with no offsetting restraint on spending or debt.

Constitutional limits on the scope of federal activity have gone unenforced. Automatic entitlement spending sidesteps the constitutional requirement that "No money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law."

Going a step further, Congress has embedded the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau inside the Federal Reserve, giving it access to limitless funding (up 80% from 2012 to 2013, reaching over $500 million) and no congressional control over spending, mission creep or staff. CFPB unionized on May 9 and is expected to have over 1,500 employees in 2014, double the number in 2012.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323665504579032752188578872.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

4060  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Cognitive Dissonance of His Glibness on: August 30, 2013, 04:44:53 PM
The greatest leaders respond to the challenges of their times:

"We shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and the oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender."  - Winston Churchill

"Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty." - John Kennedy

“In no event are we considering any kind of military action that would involve boots on the ground, that would involve a longterm campaign.”  “We’re not considering any open commitment.”  - Barack Obama
4061  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Ice Yachting on: August 30, 2013, 04:19:54 PM
Who could have seen this coming?  Ice in the Arctic, varying weather conditions!  The humanitarian thing to do might be to rescue the people and leave equipment removal to their own insurance companies or personal resources.
4062  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Issues in the American Creed (Constitutional Law and related matters) on: August 30, 2013, 11:49:34 AM
While I am glad to know of Lopez and that SOME sort of limits remain on the Interstate Commerce clause, Doug's question seems to me quite fair.  
Remember all the time you spent on this, http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/07/03/did-justice-roberts-invalidate-obamacare, Doug?

Bigdog,  The link makes two points (if I am reading it correctly). 1) Roberts is getting some kind of revenge on Obama (intentional or otherwise) by siding with the conservatives as they scale back the application of the commerce clause, and 2) he is affirming and invalidating Obamacare all in one stroke by declaring it a tax while knowing the bill originated in the Senate not the House and therefore will be struck down - null and void.

Since then,

a) Obamacare implementation is going forward.  Origination case was dismissed in District Court, see below.*  It is the "law of the land" - because of Chief Justice John Roberts.  What am I missing here?

b) No government program, department, agency, regulation or significant federal regulatory authority (to my knowledge) has been rolled back by the Supreme Court or by anyone else since or because of the ruling.  New federal regulations issued just since the Roberts decision approaching 2000 pages/week, costing $2 trillion/yr.  http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/11/more-than-1600-pages-of-regulations-added-to-federal-register-last-week-cost-now-1-8-trillion-per-year/
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/under-obama-11327-pages-federal-regulations-added

c) All future congresses now have the 'Roberts Roadmap' to get around constitutional constraints on unlimited authority.  Declare mandates a tax.
-------------------

*  Matthew Sissel v. Dept HHS  The origination case was dismissed by US District Court Washington DC.  The House had passed a shell bill, not a tax, and then went back and inserted Obamacare into it.  'Inelegant', but legal.(Not in my view.)  http://blog.pacificlegal.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/SisselDismissal.pdf
4063  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces on: August 30, 2013, 10:36:19 AM
"What is needed now is a political leader on fire about all the possibilities... someone with real passion about the idea of new businesses, new inventions, growth, productivity, breakthroughs and jobs, jobs, jobs. Someone in love with the romance of the marketplace."

Peggy Noonan is right.  Big, centrally planned and controlled governments don't create prosperity, economic freedom does.  We talked about finding the next Reagan until it was cliche.  It isn't the next Reagan we need, we need the next real leader. 

Republican governance of 2001-2006 had no discipline, no clarity and no purpose.  People changed the direction in Nov 2006 and loved the idea of hope and change in 2008 with no idea that a left turn was a backwards turn.   The tea party surge of 2010 was a start.  It was grass roots, but it was leaderless and not policy specific.  2012 was a year of confusion.  The failure of the Obama Presidency was not clear enough to enough people and Romney was not quite right. 

Now young people feel that their country is failing when it is their leaders and their policies that are failing them.  A real leader could change hearts and minds.  The table is set.  Maybe we always say this but true now without a doubt - never before has there been a greater opportunity.
4064  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: US-Russia - Putin 'infuriated' by Obama's 'bored kid' "slouch" quip on: August 29, 2013, 09:27:57 AM
After all the trouble Nobel Prize winner Pres. Obama and then Sec Clinton went to, resetting relations with a gag gift that actually translated "overcharge", the 'tell Vladimir I will have more flexibility to disarm after my reelection' US President went out of his way to rip him personally in a recent press conference.  I was listening live and it  sounded planned and scripted. 

“I know the press likes to focus on body language, and he's got that kind of slouch, looking like the bored kid at the back of the classroom,”

----------------------------------
Russian president Vladimir Putin was "infuriated" by President Obama's joke that he looked "like the bored kid in the back of the classroom," according to a Kremlin official quoted anonymously by the New York Times.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/319301-report-putin-infuriated-by-obamas-bored-kid-quip#ixzz2dMrB9Fcv
-----------------------------------

What harm can a little ad hominem Presidential rip to a world audience do...

Russian news service Interfax is citing military sources as saying Moscow is dispatching an anti-submarine ship and a cruiser to the Mediterranean. Interfax says the moves are being made due to the "well-known situation" there -- referring to the Syria crisis.  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-29/russia-dispatches-sub-cruiser-uk-sends-6-jets-cyprus-china-repeats-dire-consequences
4065  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: US Economics, Plowing backwards, workforce participation rate chart updated on: August 29, 2013, 12:41:37 AM
The Wesbury theory is that the economy keeps plowing forward, no matter how bad the wrong headed policies get, Obamacare, tax rate increases, no problem.  The indices of established companies measured in recently printed dollars do not tell the whole story.  This chart tells us what portion of the adults in the country participate in the workforce since the onslaught of the Pelosi-Reid-Obama nightmare.  Each half point means more than a million more are no longer working, and likely on the receiving end.  Hardly a recovery in my view:



Source: BLS / NY Times

More people left the workforce than found a new job—by a factor of nearly three (in the plowhorse economy).  22 million Americans are unemployed or underemployed. 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323740804578601472261953366.html
4066  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Race, Thomas Sowell on: August 29, 2013, 12:03:57 AM
Interesting point made by Thomas Sowell missed by most economists and historians:

Many people -- especially politicians and activists -- want to take credit for the economic and other advancement of blacks, even though a larger proportion of blacks rose out of poverty in the 20 years before 1960 than in the 20 years afterwards.

 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/08/27/a_poignant_anniversary_119721.html#ixzz2dKaISd8Q
(read it all)

4067  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Issues in the American Creed (Constitutional Law and related matters) on: August 28, 2013, 11:53:38 PM
"That Wickard remains good law does not mean it remains "the law of the land." You conveniently ignore US v. Lopez (1995), US v. Morrison (2000) for example."

No intent to deceive.  Did the federal government lose its authority to regulate a product (or service) like Filburn's, that doesn't cross state lines (and I missed it)?  My business is the rental of single family homes, regulated at the city, county, and state levels, in addition to regulation by an entire federal department.  My business could not be more like a family farm of 1790 in this regard.  None of my products or services have ever crossed state lines.

When the US Department of Housing (HUD) opened a full investigation against me over an accusation easily proven false, I wonder if a simple point to these cases would have sufficed - instead of providing the hundreds of documents they were requiring.

Linking myself, over 700 current federal departments and agencies are listed at the end of the post (link below), more departments and agencies now than before Lopez, Morrison or any previous time in our history (and many more coming).  All of these are constitutionally authorized federal powers - in the founders' spirit of a constitutionally limited government?  I don't think so.  http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=1850.msg72139#msg72139
4068  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Issues in the American Creed (Constitutional Law and related matters) on: August 28, 2013, 12:43:52 PM
"Pork exists in all policy spaces. When the commerece is purely intrastate, there is the limit."  (Wickard-Filburn?)  "I want you to recognize that days of the village based economy have ended, and therefore because of the constitutional power afforded Congress, the reach is necessarily extended."

"How intricate should oversight be in other policy spaces? There is a great deal to agriculture. I'd like that to be intricate..."

I agree on the federal role in having a safe food supply, but look at the Dept of Agriculture.  In the 1980s while selling to the government, I had the opportunity to work with the US Dept of Agriculture, APHIS (Animal Plant Health Inspection Service).  APHIS was headquartered in the warehouse district of Minneapolis where it operated with far more efficiency than other divisions in Washington.  Protecting our nation's food supply is good government, maybe great government.  But what portion of the Ag budget goes to that end?  Very little.

Wickard- Filburn is wrong.  I didn't see Bigdog answer that.  To others, it was a case where the Supreme Court ruled that growing wheat to feed your own animals, that never left the farm, was interstate commerce.  Wrong in so many ways, but the ruling is still the law of the land.

The interstate commerce clause authorized government at the federal level in the context of a limiting-government document.  To read that expansively and believe they should control anything and everything because nearly all commerce potentially could cross state lines is wrong (IMHO).  Because they can regulate Florida oranges or Idaho potatoes doesn't mean they should.  Maybe the quality of that product is adequately governed at the state or local level before it crosses the state line.

Where does a lien against a house cross state lines?  When it is bought and sold?  So what.  If government participates as a player in the market, is that authorized as 'regulation'?  How about K-12 education, where does that cross state lines?  Or is that the general welfare clause?  If the neighborhood school is a federal responsibility, then what on earth are the limits of promoting the general welfare other than congress saying this bill or law promotes the general welfare?

We no longer live in a village-based economy.  Have the constitutional limits on government all become obsolete because of that, and because court precedents (Wickard, Obamacare, etc.) have found a way around all of them?

What about 'equal protection'?  Why is it legal or constitutional for any government to give any preference to any business (Solyndra), that it does not give to everyone else?  Why don't we read THAT clause expansively?
4069  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Pathological Science, People Don’t Fear Climate Change Enough on: August 28, 2013, 11:57:19 AM
BBG,  Amazing how backward the thinking was 500 years ago, and amazing what a short distance we have come since.  To everyone else, watch the video.  7 minutes with a history professor (I presume) to learn a lot about what was happening centuries ago.

Update on global warming:  

Satellite data set RSS shows no warming over the last 16 years and 8 months, with a cooling trend currently in progress:



Fewest 100+ degree readings at temperature stations in 100 years in the US:




Nonetheless, here is Presidential confidant, flaming liberal, husband of UN Ambassador Samantha Power, Cass Sunstein, writing as if it is 1600 again.  Shall we have a witch trial?

People Don’t Fear Climate Change Enough,    by Cass Sunstein
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-27/people-don-t-fear-climate-change-enough.html

With respect to the science of climate change, many experts regard the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as the world’s authoritative institution. A draft summary of its forthcoming report was leaked last week. It describes the panel’s growing confidence that climate change is real, that it is a result of human action, and that if the world continues on its current course, it will face exceedingly serious losses and threats (including a significant rise in sea levels by century’s end).

While the draft report states these conclusions with unprecedented conviction, they are broadly consistent with the panel’s judgments from the past two decades, which raises an obvious question: Why have so many nations (including China and the U.S., the world’s leading greenhouse-gas emitters) not done more in response?

There are many answers. Skeptics say that the IPCC is biased and wrong. Companies whose economic interests are at stake continue to fight against regulatory controls. The leaders of some nations think that if they acted unilaterally to reduce their emissions, they would impose significant costs on their citizens without doing much to reduce climate change. Especially in a difficult economic period, they don’t think it makes sense to act on their own.

To this extent, the real challenge lies in producing an international agreement. It isn’t easy to obtain a consensus on the timing and expense of reductions, especially because developing nations (including China) insist that developed nations (including the U.S.) are obliged to take the most costly steps toward reducing emissions.
Psychological Barriers

All of these positions play a major role. But we should not disregard purely psychological factors. An understanding of what human beings fear -- and what they do not -- helps to explain why nations haven’t insisted on more significant emissions reductions.

The first obstacle is that people tend to evaluate risks by way of “the availability heuristic,” which leads them to assess the probability of harm by asking whether a readily available example comes to mind. An act of terrorism, for example, is likely to be both available and salient, and hence makes people fear that another such event will occur (whether it is likely to or not). So, too, a recent crime or accident can activate attention and significantly inflate people’s assessment of risk.

By contrast, climate change is difficult to associate with any particular tragedy or disaster. To be sure, many scientists think that climate change makes extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Sandy, substantially more likely. But it is hard to prove that climate change “caused” any particular event, and as a result, the association tends to be at best speculative in many people’s minds.

Second, people tend to be especially focused on risks or hazards that have an identifiable perpetrator, and for that reason produce outrage. Warmer temperatures are a product not of any particular human being or group, but the interaction between nature and countless decisions by countless people. There are no obvious devils or demons -- no individuals who intend to create the harms associated with climate change. For terrorism, a “we-they” narrative fits the facts; in the context of climate change, those who are the solution might well also be, or seem to be, the problem. In these circumstances, public outrage is much harder to fuel.

Third, human beings are far more attentive to immediate threats than to long-term ones. Behavioral scientists have emphasized that in their private lives, people sometimes display a form of myopia. They may neglect the future, seeing it as a kind of foreign country, one they may not ever visit. For this reason, they might fail to save for retirement, or they might engage in risk-taking behavior (such as smoking or unhealthy eating) that will harm their future selves.

Future Threat

In a political context, citizens might demand protection against a risk that threatens them today, tomorrow or next month. But if they perceive climate change as mostly a threat to future generations -- if significant sea-level rises seem to be decades away -- they are unlikely to have a sense of urgency.

Climate change lacks other characteristics that spur public concern about risks. It is gradual rather than sudden. The idea of warmer climates doesn’t produce anger, revulsion or disgust. Depletion of the ozone layer was probably the most closely analogous environmental concern; public attention to that problem was easier to mobilize because of fears of a huge rise in skin cancer.

In this light, it should not be surprising if people don’t get much exercised by the IPCC’s forthcoming report. All the obstacles are daunting -- skepticism about the science, economic self-interest, and the difficulties of designing cost-effective approaches and obtaining an international agreement. But the world is unlikely to make much progress on climate change until the barrier of human psychology is squarely addressed.
4070  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: the ME in a single chart on: August 26, 2013, 03:19:28 PM

"Iran is backing Assad. Gulf states are against Assad.  Assad is against Muslim Brotherhood. Muslim Brotherhood and Obama are against General Sisi.  But Gulf states are pro-Sisi.  Which means they are against Muslim Brotherhood.  Iran is pro-Hamas, but Hamas is backing Muslim Brotherhood.  Obama is backing Muslim Brotherhood, yet Hamas is against the U.S.  Gulf states are pro-U.S. But Turkey is with Gulf states against Assad; yet Turkey is pro-Muslim Brotherhood against General Sisi. And General Sisi is being backed by the Gulf states.
[/quote]

Not to mention Russia!  It would be worth memorizing that passage in case someone asks what I think is going on in the Middle East.  Here is is the chart mentioned:



Why are people saying this is confusing?

It might be a good time for the U.S. to pull back, build up our own economy and energy production capacity, and strike force, and do like NHL refs do during fights, let the players wear themselves out a little before stepping in.
4071  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Congressional races - Lindsey Graham, Too much DC in SC on: August 26, 2013, 03:03:51 PM
Speaking of incumbents reelected that don't serve their constituencies well, look at South Carolina Republicans scramble to replace (RINO?) Lindsey Graham.

"Too much DC in SC" says Carolina Conservative Union Chairman, Bruce Carroll:
http://www.theglobaldispatch.com/lindsey-graham-too-much-dc-for-sc-says-ccu-chairman-bruce-carroll-10505/
4072  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Wesbury: Doug is wrong on: August 26, 2013, 02:56:41 PM
Very funny Crafty.

He quotes the same numbers I did:  "New Orders for Durable Goods Dropped 7.3% in July".  Then the obligatory Obama-like straw man argument: "Today's weak report on durable goods is not the end of the world."  Oh, good grief, who said it was - based on one monthly report.  How about based on the policies of failure. "First, the durables report is notoriously volatile."  Of course it is, then why are we fixated on these reports, and touting them when they are up?  'If you take out the sectors that were sharply down(civilian aircraft), the report isn't so bad.'  Hmmm, OK.  Civilian aircraft is "likely to rebound sharply", yet it "looks like real GDP growth in the third quarter is coming in at roughly a 1.5% annual rate."  Then the rest of the economy is dormant or worse? "The recovery in home building should generate more demand for big-ticket consumer items, such as appliances."  - Huh?? It was the worst 4 years of the last 60 years, and down again last month!  "Monetary policy is loose (because the economy still stuck in neutral) and, for Corporate America, borrowing costs are low (because the Fed is printing the money and companies are SCARED TO DEATH those costs are going up) and balance sheet cash and profits are at or near record highs(already factored into current prices). Meanwhile, the obsolescence cycle should goad more firms to update their capital stock.  WHAT??  Companies are trimming their full time payrolls because of Obamacare and will need fewer machines to support fewer employers.  Right?

"The details show the economy is still a plow horse."  A plowhorse doesn't trot, pull backwards or behave "notoriously volatile".  A 1.5% growth gets us out of this funk - NEVER.  I think we all agree this economy sucks and are just arguing over word usage to describe what we all see.  Back to you, Brian.  )
4073  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Race discrimination - Colin Powell, we're not there yet on: August 26, 2013, 10:37:35 AM
"But we're not there yet. We’re not there yet. And so we've got to keep working on it. And for the president to speak out on it is appropriate. I think all leaders, black and white, should speak out on this issue." - Colin Powell on Trayvon verdict, "I think that it will be seen as a questionable judgment on the part of the judicial system..."

Yet the last example he had of discrimination against himself was 1963??  "I’ve been refused access to restaurants where I couldn't eat, even though I just came back from Vietnam. "We can't give you a hamburger. Come back some other time." and I did, right after the civil rights act of 1964. I went right back to that same place and got my hamburger, and they are more than happy to serve me now." 

He rose to highest ranks, Chairman, Joint Chiefs and Secretary of State.  He was the most popular politician in the country.  His successor for Sec State was black.  We elected a black President.  Appointed and confirmed black Supreme Court Justices.  Good grief, how long shall we keep whining about "the residual effects of our history, the racism that existed by law, segregation, slavery..." ? 
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2013/08/25/colin_powell_trayvon_martin_verdict_questionable.html

Adrian Peterson, party to a $100 million contract, compared the NFL with slavery. (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/adrian-peterson-gives-readers-a-double-take-with-views-on-lockout?urn=nfl,wp206)  I wonder if slave ancestors would agree, working round the clock, with education prohibited and families broken up.

Here is another idea.  Enjoy your freedom! 
4074  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / George Will; International community - it's a fiction on: August 26, 2013, 10:08:04 AM
On chemical weapons in Syria:

GEORGE WILL: Our military is rightly leery of making a gesture; they're not in the gesture business. And they have a feeling that's what they would be doing. Throwing -- lobbing cruise missiles, these standoff weapons, into a country to make us, what, feel or look good? The president on CNN this week said, the use of gas is going to require America's attention and hopefully the entire international community's attention. Now, some people believe in the Tooth Fairy, the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus, the Loch Ness Monster, others believe in the international community -- it's a fiction.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2013/08/25/george_will_on_international_community_its_a_fiction.html
4075  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / The Market and the Economy - move oppositely on: August 26, 2013, 09:59:32 AM
"U.S. stocks edged higher in light volume on Monday after a steep drop in orders for long-lasting manufactured goods pushed back expectations the Federal Reserve will soon begin to wind down its economic stimulus."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/26/us-markets-stocks-idUSBRE9770GZ20130826


Just clarifying here.  Bad economic news drives the market higher because it means the Fed cannot back off its easy money / artificial stimulation policy, but ... easy, fake money has nothing to do with why the market has outperformed all logic and reason over the last 4 years.  Got it.
4076  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: US Economics, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies on: August 26, 2013, 09:38:14 AM
Brian Wesbury:  "The Right wants a recession to prove that government is too big."

No.  More like we see a giant boulder over our head and believe in gravity.

New home sales plunge 13.4%
Tim Mullaney, USA TODAY 4:17 p.m. EDT August 23, 2013
Sales of new homes plunged in July. The seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 394,000 missed analysts' expectations of 487,000.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/08/23/new-home-sales/2691323/

The last 4 years were the worst 4 years of the last 60 years:  http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/stageann.pdf

Mortgage rate went up to 4%!  Maybe it just affected homes...
---------------

U.S. durable goods post largest drop in nearly a year

(Reuters) - Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods recorded their biggest drop in nearly a year in July and a gauge of planned business spending on capital goods tumbled, casting a shadow over the economy early in the third quarter.

The Commerce Department said on Monday durable goods orders dropped 7.3 percent as demand for goods ranging from aircraft to computers and defense equipment fell.

That was the biggest decline since last August and snapped three consecutive months of gains.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/26/us-economy-durables-idUSBRE97P0FL20130826
---------

The Plowhorse Trot?  Or is it what Neil Young said about one of his songs, "This one starts off kinda slow - and then fizzles out altogether."
4077  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Issues in the American Creed (Constitutional Law and related matters) on: August 26, 2013, 09:17:09 AM
Excellent discussion.  

(CCP wrote): "As for term limits I am not sure I am for them I was only siting Marc Levin's proposal.  I am not even sure he is committed to his proposals"

I have great respect for Levin, but when I heard him questioned on this it sounded like he was just throwing ideas into the mix.  The big idea is the constitutional convention - which I oppose.  Levin forgets that the people who want to tear up the constitution and start over are his opponents, not conservatives or so-called originalists.  His thought that things couldn't get any worse is badly mistaken.

(Bigdog wrote regarding term limits):  "I've never understood the allure of congressional term limits."

Implied is that there is an allure of term limits; they poll well.  Newt knew that in the Contract with America and Levin knows that now.  It creates the tempting us vs. them matchup, but solves nothing because the problems in congress are the fault of the voters and have nothing to do with members entering a 13th year.  

We have term limits now - elections - or as George Will calls them, bringing your representative back to the district for discipline.  There are at least 3 legitimate ways to get your member of congress to move along, take him or her down from within their own party, beat them in the general election, or if they just leave voluntarily.  The first option here needs to be taken more seriously.

The 90-98% reelection rates (http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/reelect.php) of mostly lousy elected officials indicate something is broken.   (Crafty wrote): "due in great part to gerrymandering".  This is right.  The reelection rate is for districts that have an incumbent running.  The gerrymandering means that most districts are not competitive.  In these cases, the failed incumbent needs to be kicked out and can only happen from within the party.  VERY few people get involved really picking the candidates from within the party, and the rest look at this condescendingly as getting involved with partisan politics.  Yes it is partisan politics and it is very important work.

The media, just lower than congress in credibility, is AWOL on exposing incompetence.  The members of congress get to make themselves look like good caring people, raise and receive money continuously, while no opposing view is often offered.

(BD writes) Intelligence oversight requires more experienced elected officials.  True for intelligence oversight, but most of the federal government  is far more intricate than it needs to be.  They are wrongly trying to be the solution for all problems and overseer of all industries, payer of all needy - instead of governing, in a limited fashion.  Did they really have major league baseball hearings?  While we were at war?! And over-taxed, over-spent, over-regulated and whatever else one find fault with.  

Article I, Section 4, Clause 2, "The Congress shall assemble at least once in every Year, and such Meeting shall be on the first Monday in December, unless they shall by Law appoint a different Day."  - Can you imagine today if the congress, for the year, had forgotten to meet until December, that the members were back in their districts - in their fields, businesses or professions - not passing more and more laws mostly about what the rest of us shouldn't be doing.

We are on the wrong course because we vote wrong and most often don't even put the right choices on the ballots.  The wording and clauses of the constitution are the least of our problems.  The electorate is mostly misguided and we haven't had a great leader in a very long time to make any sense of it.  Weakening congress and empowering the permanent bureaucrat/technocrat class even further is not the answer.
4078  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Segregation, diversity, and clustering on: August 23, 2013, 09:15:47 AM
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/map_of_the_week/2013/08/segregation_in_america_every_neighborhood_in_the_u_s_mapped_along_racial.html
How diverse is your neighborhood really? This map by Dustin Cable at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service displays the population distribution of every person in America (as of the 2010 census) along racial and ethnic lines. The map features 308,745,538 dots, each smaller than a single pixel and each representing one person: Caucasians are blue, blacks are green, Hispanics are orange, Asians are red, and other races are brown.

The vast swaths of purple appear to show the racial diversity of some of America’s biggest cities. But if you zoom into the map and break these cities down at the neighborhood level, patterns of segregation become much clearer.

Cable uses the example of Minneapolis–St. Paul to illustrate a city where racial integration in the city as a whole appears far greater than it does in individual blocks of streets.

VERY interesting post and map.  Interesting that people choose segregation to such a large extent, nearly 60 years after Brown v. Board of Education overturned Plessy v. Ferguson and segregation laws were ruled illegal. 

If you look at the inner cities of Minneapolis-St. Paul (the example chosen) from a distance you see apparent diversity.  Then they show a map down to the neighborhoods and you see apparent segregation.  What they don't show is that if you zoom in even closer to the household or even the bedroom you again see diversity.  Millions and millions of Americans are either mixed race individuals or live in mixed-race households.

One in seven new marriages in the U.S. involve spouses from different racial groups. Pew 2011.  That proportion, I will guess, is even higher for unmarried couples.
4079  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / IRS Scandal, Who Knew about targeting? Lois Lerner's Deputy - Holly Paz - knew on: August 23, 2013, 08:36:05 AM
(When does PROSECUTION begin in America?)

What About Lerner's Deputy?

Lois Lerner, the agent at the heart of the Internal Revenue Service scandal, was not the first person in a leadership position to know that conservative groups applying for tax-exempt status were being targeted. Her deputy Holly Paz was.

Ms. Paz testified in May before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee that she learned of the targeting accidentally, after noticing an influx of tea party cases and asking Cincinnati agents for the criteria that were used to flag them. But according to interviews with other agents and newly released emails, it appears that how Ms. Paz learned of the criteria was no accident, and Congress wants answers.

GOP Reps. Darrell Issa and Jim Jordan sent Ms. Paz a letter this week asking her to explain certain "inconsistencies." Ms. Paz testified that she asked for the criteria from her employees after noticing the list of cases held for added scrutiny "was being over-inclusive." She said it was in June 2011 that she initially learned agents were using keywords on a "Be On the Lookout" spreadsheet to flag potential political cases. But Cindy Thomas, the manager of the Cincinnati office, had sent Ms. Paz an email making her "aware of a BOLO spreadsheet on March 16, 2011," or three months earlier. If Ms. Paz had the spreadsheet already, why did she need to ask her agents for the criteria?

Moreover, the same spreadsheet directed agents to flag "
  • rganizations involved with the Tea Party movement." So why did Ms. Paz testify that IRS agents saw "Tea Party" as a generic term for all potential political cases, not just applications from conservative groups?

Messrs. Issa and Jordan asked Ms. Paz to renounce her testimony or rectify it by September 3. Let's see if she sticks to her story.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324619504579028841667645598.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_MIDDLESecond
4080  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / hermaphrodite recognition? Germany recognizes 3rd gender on: August 23, 2013, 08:26:04 AM
US govt removed the terms mother and father from FAFSA (college financial aid), replaced the discriminatory  terms with new discriminatory terms Parent 1 and Parent 2.  Now this.  Good grief.

Third Gender Option Introduced by Germany for Birth Certificates

Germany will permit parents to select a "third gender" on birth certificates for their children, should the child want to identify with a certain gender in the future.

http://m.christianpost.com/news/third-gender-option-introduced-by-germany-for-birth-certificates--102868/

Although some in Germany, including the newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung, have heralded the new legislation, others have argued that it poses complications to other state-issued documents, such as passports and marriage licenses. Currently, passports require a "male" or "female" gender option, and some groups argue that travel will become difficult if a German's passport simply has a blank space under gender;
4081  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Fracking without water on: August 23, 2013, 08:15:48 AM
As cries of protest from environmental and farming groups are on the rise, a new technology developed by GasFrac of Canada has the potential to make such concerns obsolete.  Liquid propane gas fracking, or LPG fracking, completely eliminates the need for water in fracking processes, leading inventor Robert Lestz to believe that the technology could have “a substantially game-changing impact on industry”.

http://frackwire.com/lp-gas-fracking/
4082  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / The End of Global Sea Level Rise, Oops Tipping Point the other way? on: August 23, 2013, 08:09:12 AM

“As a result of the Sun entering a ‘hibernation’ phase, the Space and Science Research Corporation hereby declares that the past two hundred years of global sea level rise is expected to end no earlier than mid-2014 and no later than 2020. After that time, global sea levels are expected to begin a long term period of decline, lasting at least through the decade of the 2030’s. The estimated global sea level decline during that period will range from 20 to 25 cm from current levels.”

http://www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html
4083  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Can Hillary Clinton Survive Benghazi? - John Hinderacker on: August 23, 2013, 08:05:31 AM
Can Hillary Clinton Survive Benghazi?

Well, sure: she’s a Democrat. That’s the easy, cynical response, and let’s face it–it’s probably right. Still, by any normal standard Benghazi would be considered a career-ending debacle. Four men, including one of her own ambassadors, were murdered on Hillary’s watch, after they had pleaded with her State Department for better security. The cable denying the ambassador’s request for better protection went out over Hillary’s signature. THAT’S JUST A FORMALITY! The Democrats say. SHE KNEW NOTHING ABOUT IT! Oh, I see. She was just a figurehead. Small matters like mortal threats to American ambassadors are too minor to come to her attention. Right. Such attention to detail certainly qualifies her to be president!

Then there is the nagging question of what Hillary was doing during the seven hours or so when her ambassador, and those who tried to protect him, were being murdered by Islamic terrorists. Nothing, apparently. Which is just fine with the Democrats. Evidently they are content to have their political “leaders” play purely symbolic roles.

The aftermath is embarrassing, too. Hillary told the father of one of the murdered SEALs that the administration would stop at nothing to bring that lousy video maker to justice. The man must have thought she was a lunatic. Later, according to an eyewitness, Hillary erupted in rage against a Republican Congressman who suggested that Benghazi was a terrorist attack. Which, of course, she knew it was shortly after it began. Is it bad to be a cowardly liar? Not if you are a Democratic presidential candidate, evidently.

The aftermath didn’t end with the administration’s initial lies, either. It continues to this day. One might think that a Secretary of State who lost an ambassador on her watch would stop at nothing to make sure that the terrorists who carried out the attack were killed or otherwise punished. (Killed, preferably.) If this is a subject in which Hillary has taken interest, she has shown no sign of it. Her hunt for the terrorists who murdered Ambassador Stevens is on a par with O.J. Simpson’s search for the “real killers.”

Hillary Clinton’s tenure as Secretary of State was a disaster by any rational evaluation. It started with the mis-translated “reset” button and went downhill from there. The current fiasco that stretches from Iraq to Tunisia is, at least in part, the result of the stunningly incompetent Obama/Clinton foreign policy from 2009 to 2013. It is probably true that most Americans don’t pay enough attention to understand how poorly served we have been in foreign affairs by Obama and Clinton. But Benghazi: that is something that just about anyone can grasp. When the State Department needed a leader–the one time in Hillary Clinton’s life when she wasn’t holding on to her husband’s coattails, when she was actually supposed to be in charge of something–there was no leader to be found.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/08/can-hillary-clinton-survive-benghazi.php
4084  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Egypt - Krauthammer on: August 23, 2013, 08:02:33 AM
Charles Krauthammer weighs in on Crafty's mini-poll.

What’s the United States to do? Any response demands two considerations: (a) moral, i.e., which outcome offers the better future for Egypt, and (b) strategic, i.e., which outcome offers the better future for U.S. interests and those of the free world.

As for Egypt’s future, the Brotherhood offered nothing but incompetent, intolerant, increasingly dictatorial rule. In one year, Morsi managed to squander 85 years of Brotherhood prestige garnered in opposition — a place from which one can promise the moon — by persecuting journalists and activists, granting himself the unchallenged power to rule by decree, enshrining a sectarian Islamist constitution and systematically trying to seize the instruments of state power. As if that wasn’t enough, after its overthrow the Brotherhood showed itself to be the party that, when angry, burns churches.

The military, brutal and bloody, is not a very appealing alternative. But it does matter what the Egyptian people think. The anti-Morsi demonstrations were the largest in recorded Egyptian history. Revolted by Morsi’s betrayal of a revolution intended as a new opening for individual dignity and democracy, the protesters explicitly demanded Morsi’s overthrow. And the vast majority seem to welcome the military repression aimed at abolishing the Islamist threat. It’s their only hope, however problematic, for an eventual democratic transition.

And which alternative better helps secure U.S. strategic interests? The list of those interests is long: (1) a secure Suez Canal, (2) friendly relations with the United States, (3) continued alliance with the pro-American Gulf Arabs and Jordanians, (4) retention of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty, (5) cooperation with the U.S. on terrorism, which in part involves (6) isolating Brotherhood-run Gaza.

Every one of which is jeopardized by Brotherhood rule.

What, then, should be our policy? The administration is right to deplore excessive violence and urge reconciliation. But let’s not fool ourselves into believing this is possible in any near future. Sissi crossed his Rubicon with the coup. It will either succeed or not. To advocate a middle way is to invite endless civil strife.

The best outcome would be a victorious military magnanimously offering, at some later date, to reintegrate the more moderate elements of what’s left of the Brotherhood.

But for now, we should not be cutting off aid, civilian or military, as many in Congress are demanding. It will have no effect, buy no influence and win no friends on either side of the Egyptian divide. We should instead be urging the quick establishment of a new cabinet of technocrats, rapidly increasing its authority as the soldiers gradually return to their barracks.

Generals are very bad at governance. Give the reins to people who actually know something. And charge them with reviving the economy and preparing the foundations for a democratic transition — most importantly, drafting a secular constitution that protects the rights of women and minorities.

The final step on that long democratic path should be elections. First municipal, then provincial, then national. As was shown in the post-World War II democratizations, the later the better.

After all, we’ve been here. Through a half-century of cold war, we repeatedly faced precisely the same dilemma: choosing the lesser evil between totalitarian (in that case, communist) and authoritarian (usually military) rule.

We generally supported the various militaries in suppressing the communists. That was routinely pilloried as a hypocritical and immoral betrayal of our alleged allegiance to liberty. But in the end, it proved the prudent, if troubled, path to liberty.

The authoritarian regimes we supported — in South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Chile, Brazil, even Spain and Portugal (ruled by fascists until the mid-1970s!) — in time yielded democratic outcomes. Gen. Augusto Pinochet, after 16 years of iron rule, yielded to U.S. pressure and allowed a free election — which he lost, ushering in Chile’s current era of democratic flourishing. How many times have communists or Islamists allowed that to happen?

Regarding Egypt, rather than emoting, we should be thinking: what’s best for Egypt, for us and for the possibility of some eventual democratic future.

Under the Brotherhood, such a possibility is zero. Under the generals, slim.

Slim trumps zero.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-krauthammer-the-choice-in-egypt/2013/08/22/eb9350da-0b5b-11e3-8974-f97ab3b3c677_story.html?hpid=z2
4085  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Media Issues, Who else thinks we are near the Tipping Point on Global Warming? on: August 22, 2013, 10:23:38 PM
Of course this could go in Pathological Science.  A Soviet survivor put it best, paraphrasing:  The US media is worse than Soviet Pravda.  There you had only one state newspaper lying to you and you knew they were lying.  Here it is more believable after you hear three four, five different sources telling you the exact same lie - or ten unoriginal sources in this case spewing the same drivel.

    "Global Warming Tipping Point Close?"--headline, ClimateArk.com, Jan. 27, 2004

    "Warming Hits 'Tipping Point' "--headline, Guardian, Aug. 11, 2005

    "Earth at the Tipping Point: Global Warming Heats Up"--headline, Time, March 26, 2006

    "Global Warming 'Tipping Points' Reached, Scientist Says"--headline, NationalGeographic.com, Dec. 14, 2007

    "Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near on Global Warming"--headline, Puffington Host, June 23, 2008

    "Global Warming: Those Tipping Points Are Closer Than You Think"--headline, WSJ.com, April 29, 2009

    "Have We Reached the Tipping Point for Planet Earth?"--video title, StudioTalk.tv, May 11, 2010

    "Must-Read Hansen and Sato Paper: We Are at a Climate Tipping Point That, Once Crossed, Enables Multi-Meter Sea Level Rise This Century"--headline, ThinkProgress.org, Jan. 20, 2011

    "Earth: Have We Reached an Environmental Tipping Point?"--headline, BBC website, June 15, 2012

    "In spite of the continued released [sic] of 90 million tons of global warming pollution every day into the atmosphere, as if it's an open sewer, we are now seeing the approach of a global political tipping point."--Al Gore, interview with Washington Post, Aug. 21, 2013

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324619504579028920138950330.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_MIDDLETopOpinion
4086  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Egypt on: August 21, 2013, 10:32:55 AM
For whatever we each think of the Egyptian military, interesting that everyone from John Bolton at AEI to Thomas Friedman at the NY Times recognize that rule by the Muslim Brotherhood is the worst possible outcome.  (Yet the media portrays them as the oppressors.)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324108204579020851300268912.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADSecond

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/21/opinion/friedman-close-to-the-edge.html?adxnnl=1&ref=opinion&adxnnlx=1377098820-663nSha7SdwquoAe93IAgw

4087  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Bernancke actions are causing the next financial crisis on: August 21, 2013, 08:52:51 AM
For his piece, Brilliant Fed Chair and the Clueless President, we should at least give Mort Zuckerman credit for getting the second half right.

If we look at the financial crisis period alone, my view is not that what Bernancke did was right but that he might be forgiven for taken such bold and decisive actions and preventing a freefall from doing far more damage than it did.  That said, I agree with Crafty.  Propping up failed organizations, rewarding failure, and not allowing the bankruptcy process to work properly were all bad aspects of his governance, and tend to make recurrence likely.  Worse yet are his actions and inactions before and after the crisis.

I posted recently people should run and scream when you hear crony government terms public-private partnerships.  That is exactly what we had - on steroids - with the Bernancke-managed bail ous and mergers of banks, investment houses and insurance companies, some insured, some not, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, AIG, and on and on.  Though the aim was to minimize the fall and what the Fed would ultimately have to cover, this  was the unauthorized war powers act for monetary affairs.  The precedent now set is that the Fed has no monetary limits.

Let's say we forgive about 6 months of actions taken in a crisis that thwarted a worse meltdown and likely saved the Treasury money, how does the rest of his governance look?

Coming into the housing-caused financial crisis, did we know housing values were insane - and over-leveraged?  Yes, without a doubt.  Did anyone say or do anything about it?  No.  For the Fed Chair as a co-conspirator in the mess to not have seen an abrupt correction coming is somewhere between negligent and criminal. 

After the crisis, it is argued that monetary policy is just about right for the conditions.  Price levels have been relatively steady.  I call steering the car away from accidents - by looking in the rear view mirror.  We don't yet know the damage done by current, reckless policies.

In 1977, Congress amended the Federal Reserve Act to give the Fed a dual mandate, to maximize employment in addition to keep price levels stable. http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/speeches/our_dual_mandate.cfm  The Bernancke Fed, post-crisis, gave itself a third mandate; it took on the role of financier and enabler of the trillion dollar a year Obama deficits.

Zuckerman may believe Bernancke did this impossible job brilliantly.  I say he did it recklessly, issuing trillions in pretend bonds that in fact have no buyers.  When the crisis was over, he had no business playing unauthorized games with the US Dollar and Treasury.  As described previously, the economy was a car running with three flat tires and his only tool was to add more and more gasoline, while saying that the flat tires of over-spending, over-taxing and over-regulating are not under his jurisdiction.  Maybe so but he was the enabler.  It the fiscal geniuses had to pay their way, or at least borrow it, some form of responsibility would have hit the powers in Washington far sooner.  For five years and counting he is acting as if we are still in a financial meltdown, while in fact he is CAUSING the next one. 

Most strange is that he is being 'let go' by the administration for not going far enough - in the wrong direction.



4088  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / The Federal Reserve's Next Hundred Years on: August 20, 2013, 11:39:23 AM
Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas, is chairman of the Joint Economic Committee

The Federal Reserve's Next Hundred Years
The bickering over Bernanke's successor is a sideshow. What's really needed is a debate about Fed policy.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323477604579003203280099282.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopOpinion
...
The bickering between the Summers and Yellen camps should not distract the country from what should be an opportunity to seriously examine the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy. That is the goal of legislation that I introduced earlier this year, the Centennial Monetary Commission Act.

The bill would create a 12-member, bipartisan commission that would objectively review the Fed's performance in terms of output, employment, prices and financial stability over its first 100 years. The commission would also study what legislative mandate the Fed should follow to best promote economic growth and opportunity.
...
I believe the best way to grow jobs and the economy is for the Fed to focus on preserving the purchasing power of the dollar, as reflected in the Sound Dollar Act, which I introduced last year. Stanford economist John B. Taylor shares this view of the Fed's ideal policy. However, since 1977 the Fed has operated under a dual mandate: to maintain stable prices and to maximize employment.
4089  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Fed, Monetary Policy: QE benefits the already rich at the expense of the poor on: August 20, 2013, 11:33:36 AM
"QE has tended to benefit the already rich at the expense of the poor"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10253268/Recovering-economy-needs-investors-prepared-to-take-a-property-risk.html

The article is about the UK, but I wonder what Obama, Bernancke et al think about THAT.
4090  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Egypt on: August 20, 2013, 10:16:54 AM
Meanwhile, the American people say otherwise:



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/08/19/poll-americans-criticize-obama-on-egypt-want-aid-cut-off/

Classic media work.  Call Muslim Brotherhood the legitimate government.  Call their ouster a coup.  Ignore their calls for death to America, death to Christians, death to Jews and Israel, death to women's rights, gays, rape victims, and efforts to take over the entire region, etc.  Label the military the oppressor.  Poll the result.  Make the poll result into a news story that drives policy.

If you push-polled the other direction, you would get the opposite result.
4091  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Egypt on: August 20, 2013, 09:35:21 AM
"Quick snap mini-poll for us here-- what should the US do?
a) Suspend aid and stay out of it; b) keep aid going i.e. support military; c) or?"
-------------------------------------------------

The present situation involves a bad group killing off the capabilities of a much worse group.  
The only answer for the U.S. is to stay quiet as a church mouse.  This crisis is (mostly) not about us.

Yes, keep aid going.  The time to suspend aid would have been in reaction to the elected leader destroying the constitution.  Our aid is to Egypt; they are the ones lacking a constitutional government and using it in ways that some might find controversial.

Of course, as I write, the Obama administration is doing the opposite, publicly taking the death-to-America side and suspending aid.  http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/20/politics/us-egypt-aid/?hpt=po_c1
-----

Bret Stephens, WSJ today:
Stephens: A Policy on Egypt—Support Al Sisi
In a zero-sum game, the U.S. should hold its nose and back the military.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324747104579022723029024470.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

A better foreign policy would be conducted to keep our nightmares at bay: stopping Iran's nuclear bid, preventing Syria's chemical weapons from falling into terrorist hands, and keeping the Brotherhood out of power in Egypt.
4092  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Mark Steyn, Consensus in Egypt on: August 19, 2013, 12:34:24 PM
(I'll come back to answer the poll.)

Mark Steyn's column, Consensus in Egypt, is a don't miss, read it all.

By  Mark Steyn
August 18, 2013 8:09 AM
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/356073/consensus-egypt-mark-steyn

everywhere except Washington people are thinking strategically
...
Eighty per cent of Egyptians say things are worse than under Mubarek.

...(as Bernard Lewis once warned) America is harmless as an enemy but treacherous as a friend.

Whatever regime emerges in Cairo, it will be post-American.

A year before the fall of Mubarak, David Pryce-Jones, in a conversational aside, quoted to me Lord Lloyd, British High Commissioner to the old Kingdom of Egypt in the Twenties: “Ah, the jacarandas are in bloom. We shall soon be sending for the gunboats.” There’s more wisdom about Arab springs in that line than in all the blather of Obama, Clinton, Kerry and Anne Patterson combined. 

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/356073/consensus-egypt-mark-steyn



4093  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Venezuela on: August 19, 2013, 12:09:51 PM
Just as the Soviet Union suffered something like 75 years of “bad weather” on its farms following the revolution, much the same is happening in tropical Venezuela:

    U.S. Rice Farmers Cash in on Venezuelan Socialism: U.S. Exporters Benefit as Production Falls in Latin American Country

    STUTTGART, Ark.—Steve Orlicek, a rice farmer here, is living the American dream. He owns a thriving business; he vacations in the Bahamas.

    His good fortune springs from many roots, including an unlikely one: He is a prime beneficiary of the socialist economic policies of Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s late president and critic of what he called U.S. “imperialism.”

    It is a paradoxical legacy of Mr. Chávez’s self-styled socialist revolution that his policies became a moneymaker for the capitalist systems he deplored. During his 14 years in power, he nationalized large farms, redistributed land and controlled food prices as part of a strategy to help the poor. But these policies turned Venezuela from a net exporter to a net importer of rice—from farmers like Mr. Orlicek. “The rice industry has been very good to us,” Mr. Orlicek said, sitting in his newly renovated home, appointed with a baby grand piano played by his wife, Phyllis.

    It isn’t just rice. Production of steel, sugar and many other goods has fallen in Venezuela, leading to occasional shortages. Until recently, Venezuela was largely self-sufficient in beef and coffee. Now it imports both.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/08/another-epic-fail-for-socialism.php
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323681904578640291651501034.html
4094  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Tax Policy on: August 19, 2013, 11:10:13 AM
A very insightful read, written by someone who actually knows how to create jobs.

"The government keeps telling the very people whose jobs it destroys that if we only tax the rich more, everything will be better."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324110404578630461045403872.html

T.J. Rodgers: Targeting the Wealthy Kills Jobs
My investment in my company helps maintain 3,470 permanent positions. What's not 'fair' about that?

One of the signature themes of the Obama administration is that the American dream is under attack due to "income disparity." The words divide the country into haves and have-nots, suggesting a national condition that needs to be corrected—presumably by "progressive" taxation as a mechanism for income redistribution. The American dream has traditionally been one of individual success that is rewarded and admired. But we are now urged to become a zero-sum society in which those achieving the American dream are envied and even resented.

The American dream is not politically affiliated. The last time it was alive and well was the period from Ronald Reagan's second term in office through Bill Clinton's second term in office. In those 16 years, we enjoyed continuous low taxes, low government spending and economic prosperity.

Since 2000, the economy has staggered under the record government spending and deficits of two presidents, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. The result of that spending spree has been lower real wages and higher and more-persistent unemployment. The Federal Reserve has pushed interest rates to near-zero, and, for the first time ever in the U.S., that Depression-era medicine has not worked—a scary situation reminiscent of Japan's decade-plus economic demise.

According to the latest 2012 IRS income-tax data, the top 1% of American taxpayers earned 20% of all income and paid 36% of all taxes. The top 5% earned 36% of all income and paid 58% of all taxes. Will even higher taxes help the economy? My experience in Silicon Valley tells me that high and so-called progressive taxes are a major cause of the country's current economic problems, not the solution.

In Silicon Valley, the rich commonly reinvest their wealth close to home. For example, I have reinvested most of my net worth in 8.5% of the shares of my own company.

Since its 1982 founding, Cypress Semiconductor has been a net creator of jobs and wealth. We have returned $2.2 billion more to the economy through stock buybacks, share dividends and spinouts than we have taken out in total lifetime investments. That figure doesn't count the $4 billion in wages the company has paid or the taxes paid on those wages. Currently, my investment helps maintain 3,479 permanent, high-paying jobs with good health-care benefits that are now threatened by more taxes.

A couple of years ago, I decided to invest in my hometown of Oshkosh, Wis., by building a $1.2 million lakefront restaurant. That restaurant now permanently employs 65 people at an investment of $18,000 per job, a figure consistent with U.S. small businesses. If progressive taxation in the name of "fairness" had taken my "extra" $1.2 million and spent it on a government stimulus program, would 65 jobs have been created?

According to recent Congressional Budget Office statistics on the Obama administration's 2009 stimulus program, each job created has cost between $500,000 and $4 million. Thus, my $1.2 million, taxed and respent on a government project of uncertain duration, would have created about one job, possibly two, and not the 65 sustainable jobs that my private investment did.

On the other end of the capital-intensity scale, Cypress Semiconductor required huge investments to create jobs in its chip-manufacturing plants. Between 1983 and 2003, those investments totaled $797 million and led to the creation of 4,033 jobs at an investment of $198,000 per job created. Thus, my own experience on the cost of job creation ranges from $18,000 to $198,000 per job, compared with $500,000 to $4 million per job created by the Obama stimulus program.

This data squares with the broad numbers showing that private investment is more efficient than government spending in creating jobs. In other words: Every dollar that is taxed away from private investment and spent by government produces fewer jobs than the jobs destroyed by the loss of private investment.

Yet the politics of envy, promoted most notably by President Obama himself, continuously stokes the idea that the wealthy are not paying their "fair share." This injured sense of unjust rewards was summed up on a radio show I heard the other day, when a caller said of the rich: "How much more do they need?"

How much more do I need? How many more jobs do you want?

Even European socialist democracies are starting to understand that tax-and-spend policies kill jobs. For example, both Italy and Spain have repealed their incentive programs for solar energy (along with their "green jobs") because the countries have calculated that for every job created by government investment in green energy, somewhere between 4.8 jobs (Italy) and 2.2 jobs (Spain) are lost because of the reciprocal cuts in private investment. I am aware of these figures because from 2002-11 I was a major investor in and chairman of SunPower, the world's second-largest solar-energy company, also based in Silicon Valley.

Silicon Valley is today's brightest example of the traditional American dream still at work. The investments for most startup companies must come from individuals who can wait 10 years to get a return on investment. Only very wealthy Americans can afford that.

Like many Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, I have reinvested in the next generation of entrepreneurs, in my case via the Sequoia Fund and Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, two venture-capital firms that gave me a shot at the American dream. I also serve as a board member of their portfolio companies.

Does anybody really believe that moving investment decisions from Silicon Valley to Washington by raising taxes on venture capitalists and their investors would make Silicon Valley more productive? Consider the Solyndra debacle: It was obvious to most of us here that the solar-energy company had zero chance of survival. That's why the company had to be government-funded near the end; no real investors were willing to step up.

During the 2012 presidential campaign, President Obama insulted America's entrepreneurs by telling them: "You didn't build that." Progressive taxation is just another tool used by government to take over an ever-larger part of the U.S. economy. The horrible irony is that the government keeps telling the very people whose jobs it destroys that if we only tax the rich more, everything will be better.

Mr. Rodgers is the founder and CEO of Cypress Semiconductor
4095  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Pathological Science on: August 19, 2013, 10:50:45 AM
"The first time I read anything about plants doing better is this article that picks on a single plant only to further their agenda:
****Poison Ivy is Growing Out of Control, Thanks to Climate Change"

In our untouched forests I actually see less poison ivy than when I was a kid.  CO2 is a factor; so is heat, shade, water.  But yes, isn't it funny that was the only thing they could think of, not that enhanced CO2 is helping to feed the planet or the other most obvious point:  Increased plant growth is a negative feedback factor preventing the dreaded spiraling effect.  The higher the CO2 level, the higher the rate CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by plants.  Who knew?!

There is a website I have watched for a long time called CO2Science.org (http://www.co2science.org/) that rather than denying warming or enhanced CO2 levels, just studies, publishes and editorializes on the mostly positive impact of it.
4096  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Privacy, Big Brother (State and Corporate) and the 4th & 9th Amendments on: August 19, 2013, 10:38:14 AM
"Are you sure it isn't the NSA, Google, organized crime, Chinese, Russians, Nigerians or Iranians just sparking hits while they troll the net?"

Some hits perhaps are computer driven, Google, etc, but I there are different hit rates on different topics based on interest level.  The Dog Brothers organization attracts the interest of people who never join and the forum has readers who never post - including 'famous people caught reading the forum.   wink
-----

I disagree with you on Snowden.  He did not make any effort to become a legitimate whistle blower and his leaks jeopardize our security.
4097  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Canadian and American on: August 19, 2013, 10:18:43 AM
"How can we argue this is ok after just arguing that Obama birthplace was an issue?   Both have (had) mother's who were American citizens."

Yes, hypocrisy again rears its ugly head.  Maybe a court needs to rule, but natural born citizen in my view would include both people for the reasons you state.  You don't lose citizenship for you or your offspring by traveling while pregnant.

'Natural born' is a term in contrast with legalized immigrant.  Ted Cruz never had to apply for citizenship - he was born with it.  Same goes for Barack Obama; he was just confusing his detractors by presenting phony documents, applying for multiple social security numbers etc.
-----------
The issue in citizenship is the opposite.  A tourist's or trespasser's baby does not gain citizenship by birth location alone, IMO.  The baby is a member of the family first.  If the family is Mexican or Japanese, Canadian, or from anywhere else, so is the baby.  If that is not clear enough in the constitution, then an amendment is needed.
4098  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Victor Davis Hanson on: August 19, 2013, 10:04:39 AM
A conservative we know, but a Democrat? huh
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Davis_Hanson

The Democrats should try to hang onto these members who put common sense above mindless ideology.  I will hazard a guess that it has been a long time since Dr. Hanson called himself a California Democrat.

I have called Walter Russell Mead my favorite Democrat; I will have to move VDH onto that list.

Many prominent conservatives come to their views by way of the Democrat party.  Jeanne Kirkpatrick never renounced that side, just joined up with Reagan, Kemp, Bennett and others on certain issues.  Rick Perry was a Dem (in Texas).  Reagan was a Democrat - and a union leader.  Crafty Dog admits coming from liberalism, somewhere in his formative youth...(??)  I also remember when Dr. CCP was a middle of the road moderate!

In my family, people choose either side.  The last time they thought Democrats were better, my grandfather voted for Woodrow Wilson.  He soon regretted it and learned from the mistake.
4099  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Cognitive Dissonance of the left on: August 19, 2013, 09:37:50 AM
"If the point is that Dingy Harry et al were in the wrong, then wouldn't the Reps be wrong here?"

Yes, hypocrisy cuts both ways.  In this case Dems accuse R's of contemplating what they themselves do regularly.

My view with spending authorizations is that one congress has no power to bind the next congress to spend money.  The congress of 2009 never had the authority to bind the voters of 2013 and beyond.


"not funding Obamacare is NOT shutting down the government ... because presumably the rest of the government will be funded-- or am I missing something here?"

That is the way I thought it was designed to work.  A bill goes to the House, to the Senate and then to the President.  Instead, a bill passes in the House.  The Senate ignores or intentionally changes that and passes a different bill.  A joint committee writes a 'compromise' to send back to the House, to the Senate and then to the President.

It is in this second loop where Republicans get screwed and end up with the stark choice of funding everything or closing the government.  Their own bill was clear - to fund everything except healthcare.  That will no longer be the issue and they don't have enough bully pulpit to say that it is.

Government spending be the smallest number of what the House, Senate pass and President will sign.  That, and no more, is the amount we all agree on.  In fact, it is the biggest spenders who force the choice of fund it all or shut down the government.
4100  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Fracking the Left on: August 18, 2013, 02:05:53 PM
Are Democrats About to Fracture Over Fracking?

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/are-democrats-about-to-fracture-over-fracking-20130817

Asked whether natural gas is important to the state's economy, 77 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats said it was somewhat or very important. Just 22 percent called it not very important or not important at all.

  - survey taken by Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pa. and the University of Michigan

 "The flip side to appeasing the environmental lobby is that you open yourself up to getting roasted on killing jobs in Pennsylvania," said one Democrat working one of the campaigns.
-------

(The point of fracking is that natural gas is a far cleaner and more efficient energy source for things like heating homes and powering manufacturing facilities than coal, oil. etc., not just a a gain of local drilling jobs.)
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