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4551  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Cognitive Dissonance of His Glibness on: August 02, 2011, 03:00:52 PM
Looking forward to the first mainstream analysis to point out that the timing deadline of the deal was based more on the Aug 4 birthday party than the Aug 3 default.
4552  DBMA Martial Arts Forum / Martial Arts Topics / Re: Prayer and Daily Expression of Gratitude on: August 02, 2011, 02:42:14 PM
Grateful for another glorious summer, for a little time away for a family reunion, to continue family traditions at a 100+ year old lake place with cousins who were my buddies growing up, for the grandchildren to have extended time with their grandparents, to get to better know our relatives from further away, to see my daughter enjoying the same sports and activities we enjoy and grateful to have added a new family member to the group.   smiley
4553  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Political Economics on: August 02, 2011, 02:32:13 PM
"Is this guy [Brian Wesbury] always too rosey or is it me?"

Wesbury was my armchair pick for Fed Chair.  He is right from my point of view on policy issues, a great analyst and formerly a great forecaster.  He was especially good when things were going well.

Now I agree with CCP.  Wesbury's employer is First Trust which I assume is an investment house.  If the chief economist proclaims that all is going to hell, they won't do much business.  So now I read his work for the facts, trends and analysis, not for macroeconomic forecasting.

He is very much a pro-growth supply-sider who I assume would be very comfortable with a freedom-based agenda from someone like a Marco Rubio or Ronald Reagan.  But what he assumes, like leftist Dems do, is that the American economy is so strong and resilient that it can weather through bad policy after bad policy and continue some kind of growth at a snail's pace.  Maybe so and maybe not.

I'm sure he voted against the Pelosi-Obama congress in 2006 and the Obama presidency in 2008, but I doubt he sufficiently anticipated in his writings the economic destruction that followed that change in direction.  

Businesses and consumers may be sitting with money on the sidelines right now, but that does not change the fact that what the see out their is an economic world that is going to hell, laced with policial and economic uncertainty.  Cases in point, how are the best companies in your area, 3M stock here for example, manufacturing and production, doing compared to gold which is a bet directly against innovation, our currency, and the productive economy?

Also remember that 'breakeven' growth is something like what they call 3.1% 'real' growth.  Whether they revise the numbers to 0.1% or 2.9%, we are just arguing over how far and how fast we are moving backwards.  Double dip IMHO is a fact right now, not something new to fear in the future.  The long and hard argued budget deal now behind us does nothing significant in either direction to move us off our stagnation/decline path.  

The rosy scenario view seems to believe that investors will start investing and innovators will start innovating again out of boredom rather than waiting for us correct any of the (fuct) fundamentals that put us in this downward spiral.
4554  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Cognitive Dissonance of His Glibness on: August 02, 2011, 01:46:12 PM
"To me it is a wonderment that his numbers are as high as they are."  - Agree, unfortunately.  We are only winning the argument against all powerful government at the margins.  We had to lose almost all industries to complete government control in order to approach 50% of the people saying they have gone too far.

"Also remember that a goodly percentage of his negatives (25% IIRC) come from disappointed progressives." 

Yes, maybe not that high but becoming very significant.  A two edged sword: the loss of support from his base will never turn into Bachmann, Perry or Cain votes, but it does weaken him.  Loss of support from his base contributed to the growing irrelevance and early lame duck status of G.W.Bush, (but that was during his second term).

"Note too the approval numbers of Congress are WAY lower than Baraq's."

Yes.  These numbers were consistently miserable for a long time and I don't understand exactly why.  I watch the numbers at Real Clear Politics.  Currently they have congressional approval at 18.5% with the number that follows fairly evenly split, R's over D's by 1.2%.  My read of that number with poll bias (poll responders versus actual voters) has been that Republican had to be less than 4-5% behind to break even in the real election.  In that sense they are up by a little more than the 1%.  Congressional approval is difficult to judge.  How is a John Boehner or Harry Reid fan supposed to judge the other chamber or like the overall results?  75% disapproval means that R's, Dems and independents alike agree that they are not getting their way in congress. 

For the President, the Rasmussen index maps strong approval against strong disapproval for a pretty good idea of where the energy in the room is.  That bottomed at -21% a few days ago when no deal was coming through, now back to -18%, 23% strongly approve vs. 41% strongly disapprove:
4555  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Cognitive Dissonance of His Glibness on: August 02, 2011, 12:23:03 PM
I agree with CCP.  Other than that ending, it was a clever and wide ranging recap (Bret Stephens, WSJ) of the Obama years so far. The surprise ending that none of a wide range of challengers can possibly defeat him, more than a year out, seems to defy the reality that Obama has sank like a stone in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, etc etc. 

I guess his point is either that the successful victor will come from other than 'one of the current GOP hopefuls' (other than Perry and perhaps Palin I don't expect more serious entrants), or is it that this country and world is doomed so why bother subscribe or read his future columns(?)
4556  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Tea Party, Glen Beck and related matters on: July 27, 2011, 01:33:37 PM
With no coherent definition of success, to 'not count' several serious business ventures, I will try to not read and not respond when you make your final judgment.  Why don't you declare him a failure now?  That's right - you already did.  Without personal knowledge beyond the readings here, I proclaim you and all your friends complete failures also.  Same definition.  Regretting the time put into trying to clarify nonsense.
4557  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Tea Party, Glen Beck and related matters on: July 27, 2011, 11:59:49 AM
I will still call him a "success" and an influence to be reckoned with if his ratings/viewers/paying customer base is 800,000+.
Funny.  You remind me of tennis friends who say my neighbor who made it into the top ten in the world in his sport in his time, won the largest purse in history at the time, had wins over Agassi, Connors, Edberg, Lendl, Courier and Chang, won 6 tour events and went to the finals of 2 majors, Wimbledon semi-finalist etc., never amounted to anything because he wasn't ever ranked number one.   Good grief.

If Beck has ten followers, he is more influential than me, by more than ten-fold.  If he makes a living for his family, after taxes, doing what he has a passion for, he is a success.  If what he started becomes an ongoing entity with some positive influence, the venture is a success.

But let's go with your numbers.  His new career includes GBTV subscriptions, listeners to his talk show, 'hits' on his website 'the blaze" (, and people who follow him on facebook if he is using that venue to communicate.  I think he will (continue to) hit the 800,000 mark with no problem.

If I were you, I would have stuck to the original point, (paraphrased) that you don't care for his type of message. Gaining a significant audience is a capability he already proved.  The Blaze alone could be the fastest growing site of 2011-2012, we will see.
"The Blaze is only four months old and according to Quantcast already clocking in 10 million page views per week." (last January)

Glenn Beck's Site The Blaze Also Hires HuffPo's HR Manager
Glynnis MacNicol | Jan. 6, 2011

Glenn BeckThe Huffington Post may have been conceived as the Left's Drudge Report but it looks like Glenn Beck's The Blaze is angling to be the new least in terms of traffic and influence.

Yesterday it was reported that The Blaze had hired former HuffPo CEO Betsy Morgan to run the site, today The Wire has learned they have also scooped up HuffPo's HR manager Jackie Greaney.

Beck noted in his News Year's message that his company planned on hiring more than 40 people in the New Year and so in that sense these hires are not a surprise.  But what's especially interesting here, particularly where Morgan's hire is concerned, is that it's clear Beck and Co. is interested in playing on a much larger stage with the Blaze.

And this isn't just about traffic.

The Blaze is only four months old and according to Quantcast already clocking in 10 million page views per week.  That's mostly a reflection of Glenn Beck's large and built-in audience (the same audience that jettisons every book he mentions to the top of the Amazon charts) but it's solid traffic and if Beck merely wanted a vanity project that's more than enough to ensure some solid promotion and likely advertising dollars.

But Beck wants to go bigger.  I suspect what he is looking for here the sort of cross platform relevance that Arianna has established with HuffPo.  He wants to be a bigger player in more fields.

Also, I suspect he wants the sort of respect that has been accrued to Huffington who is now a go-to on all things politics and new media.  Over the last year Beck has established himself as a media phenomenon but he is still largely skirted by the MSM who often find his brand of politics troubling.  But if Beck turns The Blaze into a go-to for things other than Beck and starts breaking news to boot...well, one imagines it will be a bit like Drudge meets Arianna meets Oprah.  Or a new New York Times, as the case may be!
4558  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces on: July 27, 2011, 10:38:00 AM
Cranewings,  I enjoyed your take on this.  Without a doubt government program dependency is not the only negative force out there, it is just an amazingly large one.  I have see the video game addiction thing hit young people as well. 

The real dependents (children) live in a world where certain basics and luxuries are provided to them in exchange for varying levels of compliance with family rules or for nothing whatsoever depending on the family.  The difference typically is the expectation of an exit strategy and in the best situations pushed, rewarded, influenced toward real achievement.

In the example let's say of the mid-20s male, out of school, not working and unable/.uninterested in breaking away from a game addiction, someone is enabling.  Probably high achieving and very frustrated parents.  Unlike welfare however, he becomes less likely to reproduce and pass the dependency on to 5 more generations, as welfare unarguably already has.

Your point about divorces increasing as women become more productive being good is true in the cases of women being empowered to leave a bad situation, but I don't see how the whole gamut of deteriorating social statistics can be a good thing overall.  From what I see and read, there is no question that kids overall do best in a home that has a mother and a father in a loving marriage all under one roof.  (That is not always possible; I write as a single father.) 

We are doing many, many things in our public policies to undermine the health of our own society.
4559  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Tea Party, Glen Beck and related matters on: July 27, 2011, 10:03:52 AM
Criticize mine, fine, but if you are going to predict failure, put your benchmark out there.
4560  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Political Economics - Robt Reich picks up where Stalinonomics left off on: July 27, 2011, 09:59:59 AM
Touting my own post  embarassed the graph in the previous post is extremely consequential.  Go back and take a look if you missed it.  Job growth under Obama dropped by tenfold after Obamacare.  The political shift at that point was nothing compared to the economic shift that occurred.

WIth Krugman down to sputtering nonsense it is time to tackle the other lead progressive economic voice:  Robert Reich says cutting the deficit is (current example) to 'take 2.7 trillion out of the economy'. 

Robert Reich, Fmr. Secretary of Labor: "There is a big lie being perpetrated by Republicans it it transcends our deficit/debt issue. And the lie is: If the government reduces its spending, somehow we create more jobs. That is exactly the reverse of reality, Ed (Schultz, the host).

"The reality is: Because of Medicaid and Medicare and Social Security payments people have more money to spend. Because of roads bridges and light rail and education and basic research and development, people have more jobs."
What's wrong with THAT picture? 

a) we are already taking that $2.7 trillion out of the productive economy.  The public sector, necessary and good up to a point that we passed a LONG time ago, rides on the wagon pulled by the private, productive sector.  Paul doesn't get paid without robbing Peter.  Heavier and heavier loads with fewer and fewer people proportionately pulling, Robert Reich and all Keynesians and progressives don't even see the host-parasite relationship. The government, even when it is governing, does not create jobs or employ resources.  It is an overhead cost/burden on our productive resources, labor and capital.

b) If there was some change in the formula for the "more than 80 million checks a month" ( we write, some of those people might work one more hour, one more month or one more year, changing with double magnitude the ratio between people pulling and people riding on the public expense wagon.

c) It always has to be a 'lie', not a difference in professional analysis or opinion.  On MSNBC, Reich knows his audience.

d) He goes on to say that it would be okay if it were coupled with tax INCREASES.  Huh?  The part where I was going to agree with him is that cuts alone are only discretely stimulative.  If you are of able mind and body and your check is cut, some will be stimulated to go do something productive AFTER they are conviced the government is not the reliable provider.  Others, like public workers in Madison, will just get angry, holler and shout their welfare rights demands at least for one more election cycle. 

The cuts (I mentioned once or twice) need to be coupled with overtly pro-growth policies or stagnation very likely will continue. 
Some immediate pro-growth possibilities if we were so inclined:
1) New corp tax code with the highest rate down to below the OECD average and every American operation paying something.
2) New individual tax code: Chop out all credits and all but about 2 deductions, lower the marginal rates and lower the jumps between brackets.
3) Jump start energy production with shall-issue permit legislation.
4) Moratorium on about 50,000 overly ambitious employment regulations.  Offer first year businesses and first year new-hires a 1099 option instead of withholding and all payroll compliance regs.
5) Repeal Obamacare and replace with the most generous of the Republican options: limited amnesty for pre-existing conditions to jump into coverage now, medical liability reform and an opening of choices and competition across state lines.
4561  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Tea Party, Glen Beck and related matters on: July 26, 2011, 11:30:04 PM
Besides 6 months notice, another difference between non-renewal and firing is that we have no reliable information about which party initiated non-renewal.  If those terms blend into one and the same for you I will try not to read your posts so carefully or so literally in the future.

Beck is not the only one to use flawed nazi analogies.  I read them constantly on left wing comment sites about everything to do with right wing.  Just depends on who you are and how badly people want to destroy you.  I can get how you disapprove of that phrase for that group and I likely agree.  What I don't get is why or how that hatred runs so personal and so deep.  You do not come across similarly flawed comparisons in your own internet readings, at least none that you have shared on the board?

I have already pointed out several striking successes of his so your prediction of failure will require some quantification: No. 1 in his time slot on tv in his category, no 1 in his time slot on radio, no.3 overall.  Number one in his industry on facebook.  No. 1 with re-runs on tv after he was gone.  I propose we measure GBTV this way: $250k/yr is punishably rich in America.  That would take less than 5k subscribers at 4.95 per month on GBTV.  You predict < 5k subscribers to GBTV by the end of the year? lol

I caught myself just today referring to Minneapolis inspectors as Gestapo-like.  They are of course not.  I was wrong.  They can destroy your life, your savings and your investment but they don't kill people en masse.  In another case I detailed on this board how abortion is the holocaust of our time and offended people here beyond words yet no one pointed out a single flaw in the analogy.  They just defend their continuing support or tolerance of the gruesome but legal practice of killing innocent life - like 'Hitler youth', from my point of view.

4562  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Tea Party, Glen Beck and related matters on: July 26, 2011, 06:32:12 PM
Also waiting for context and full quote.  These quotes of talk show hosts always seems to come after the fact from people who did not hear the program.  Typically people listening live took no offense, but then the words get clipped and framed by opposition opportunists.  'Whither on the vine' and 'Barack the magic negro' come to mind.

I disagree with the premise of nearly everyone in media that it is relevant, interesting or worthwhile to know the political views of the mass murderer.  If he was liberal, conservative, moderate, had an identical voting record all his life to mine or even was a family member, he still is a mass murderer.  What the hell difference do his 'views' make, he blew up public buildings and opened fire on innocent people!

That said, if everyone else is going to discuss everything about everything regarding so-called motivation, then some observations unflattering about the victims are possible.  These people deserve respect and a period of silence IMO before their own cause needs to come to light.  But if there is going to be free and instant dialog everywhere, even here, then criticism of their cause and their own behavior may come into the discussion.  And if it does, one should not need to say in every sentence that while you disagree with or have suspicions of their cause, you do not condone mass murder.  In civilized society, that goes without saying.

JDN, I'd rather not discuss the victims, but what was Hitler like in his youth?  What were the Hitler's youth programs like?  Did they kill at the conferences or did they just talk about how to control other people and re-make society in their own vision.  I'll bet they had a bunch of bland platitudes (like hope and change).  I am still waiting for documentation that Beck was fired - with 6 months notice.  Repeating over and over doesn't count - 'sounds a little like' what Goebbels would do.  Strange that they play Beck's re-runs after his departure, not really sharing the good-riddance theme with you, lol.  Do words (like 'Fired!') have no meaning? I don't watch the TV but when Trump says 'You're fired!',  do they stay on the program another season, lol?
4563  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Government programs & regulations, spending, budget process on: July 26, 2011, 05:37:45 PM
I asked for clarity from the Republicans, really from all sides, about a year ago.  Here it is, finally, from the most unlikely of sources - the Speaker of the House John Boehner.  Probably could have unleashed this speech a couple of weeks earlier if not for the golf summit.

The president has often said we need a 'balanced' approach -- which in Washington means: we spend more. . .you pay more. Having run a small business, I know those tax increases will destroy jobs.

The House and Senate can pass this bipartisan bill and send it to the President for his signature.  And if the President signs it, and crisis atmosphere that he created will simply disappear.
4564  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Government spending, budget: Spending Cuts—Not Higher Taxes—Saved Canada on: July 25, 2011, 03:12:16 PM

How Spending Cuts—Not Higher Taxes—Saved Canada
Liberals up there listened to voters, and their economy is now growing faster than ours.


When Jean Chretien became prime minister in 1993, Canada faced a fiscal and economic breakdown. The government's share of the economy had climbed to 53% in 1992, from 28% in 1960. Deficits had tripled as a percentage of gross domestic product over the prior two decades. Government debt was nearly 70% of GDP and growing rapidly. Interest payments on the debt took up 35 cents of every tax dollar.

Mr. Chretien and his finance minister, Paul Martin, took decisive action. "Canadians have told us that they want the deficit brought down by reducing government spending, not by raising taxes, and we agree," Mr. Martin said. The new administration slashed spending. Unemployment benefits were cut by nearly 40%. The ratio of spending cuts to tax increases was nearly 7-to-1. Federal employment was reduced by 14%. Canada's national railway and air-traffic-control system were privatized.

The economy rebounded. Between 1995 and 1998, a $36.6 billion deficit turned into a $3 billion surplus. Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio was cut in half in a decade. Canada now has faster economic growth than America (3.3% in 2010, compared to 2.9% in the U.S.), a lower jobless rate (7.2% in June, when the U.S. rate was 9.2%), a deficit-to-GDP ratio that's a quarter of ours, and a stronger dollar.

What's most remarkable about the Canadian turnaround: It was led by liberals. Mr. Chretien and Mr. Martin were leaders of the Liberal Party. Yet they responded to the clear wishes of Canadians and, to the surprise of the political class, shifted to the right. Or to the center, the two leaders would say.

Today the United States is in a situation almost identical to Canada's in the 1990s. Government spending is surging, a huge deficit and national debt are setting peacetime records, interest payments are soaring, the economy is stagnant, and unemployment is stuck at around 9%. Yet one thing is missing: Liberals in America refuse to lead.

Led by President Obama, liberals have held back, leaving conservatives to lead and then stymieing conservative proposals because they rely on spending cuts. Liberals have sought to protect domestic programs, including entitlements, from even small cuts.

It's increased spending that is largely responsible for deficits exceeding $1 trillion for three consecutive years and thus for the rise in the national debt's percentage of GDP from 40% in 2008 to 62% in 2011 and toward an estimated 72% next year. The public, in the 2010 election and in poll after poll, is insisting on spending cuts.

But the president has declined to present a specific plan of his own. The 2012 budget he sent to Congress in February is inoperative. His tack now is to comment on the debt-reduction plans of others. Just this week, the White House said Mr. Obama would veto the "cut, cap and balance" proposal approved by the House and attached to the $2.4 trillion hike in the debt limit the president has asked for.

Earlier, the president attacked the Republican budget passed by the House. And in five days of negotiations with congressional leaders last week, he backed away from some of the spending reductions that had been agreed to in talks led by Vice President Biden. Mr. Obama had already taken major spending programs, like his health-care program, the $53 billion rapid rail project, and funding for "green jobs," off the table.

As the Aug. 2 deadline for a debt-limit increase nears, Mr. Obama has combined a very public role with an absence of upfront leadership. He's had three press conferences in the past month without offering clear guidance. But since he has no plan, he's less of a target for criticism, and he has tried to limit his accountability.

At his session with reporters last week he minimized the severity of the debt problem. "Here's the good news," he said. "It turns out we don't have to do anything radical to solve this problem. Contrary to what some folks say, we're not Greece. We're not Portugal."

The fiscal trouble was caused over the past decade, Mr. Obama explained, by the Bush tax cuts, "a prescription drug program for seniors that was not paid for," the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and "a bad recession that required a Recovery Act and stimulus spending and helping states . . . and there's interest on top of that." In other words, it wasn't Mr. Obama's fault.

What the president left out were the biggest drivers of spending and debt—entitlements. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects Medicare, Medicaid and other health-care spending to jump to 9.5% of GDP over the next two decades from 5.6% in 2011. The CBO says Medicare will run out of money in 2020.

Like Mr. Obama, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi downplays the fiscal difficulty and recommends against offering a plan. "Once you put another proposal on the table, you're conceding that there must be some big problem," she said in April.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is also a minimizer. He said this spring that changes in Social Security shouldn't be considered until the program fails. "Two decades from now, I'm willing to take a look at it," Mr. Reid said.

As America struggles over spending and debt, Canadians watch with wonderment. A new book, "The Canadian Century: Moving Out of America's Shadow," points to a role reversal—a strong Canada and a weak America.

In the foreword, former Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Allan Gottleib writes: "If we want to see what would have become of Canada had we not lived through the difficult changes, we need look no further than Washington, D.C., where unreformed entitlements and undisciplined borrowing are hobbling America's power to be a world leader."
4565  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Agriculture, Food Chain and Food Politics: Food Police! on: July 25, 2011, 02:24:39 PM
When right and left can agree...  This is an internet radio interview, 2 conservative hosts (Hinderacker of Powerline is one) with MSNBC political analyst Michelle Bernard about new interagency working group rules about marketing food to children.  Violating substances she alleges include oatmeal and whole wheat bread, cheerios, milk, peanut butter, what?!  Go to the 24:30 minute mark of the show for the part on food rules.  (First half is about the budget.)
4566  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Budget process, Is the Debt ceiling raise in time or in money? on: July 25, 2011, 01:21:44 PM
It is cognitive dissonance to talk about debt ceiling increases in time periods instead of dollar increments as if the rate of deficit spending was fixed beyond our control.  Would a credit card company or business bank loan bump you up by thousands from being maxed out and call it a 6 month increase? No. You would argue and they would need to believe you that the amount they are willing to do will be enough for you to get your act together, get through this temporary period of revenue shortfall, that you will make necessary changes on spending, and soon be breaking even and starting to paying back - or you wouldn't get the loan.

Republicans should bump up the debt ceiling only by the amount the US government should need this remaining cycle, not by the amount they say they need.  Let's say it's a trillion, then make it last a year and half instead of a year.  The government would have existing revenues of 2.5 trillion/yr plus another trillion in new borrowing to operate.  Make do.  The legislation should call for corresponding economic growth policies and public spending curtailments required to make it work.

A larger economy with increasing assets and income can support greater debt; that is not the case now as wealth is decreasing.  Congress has raised the debt ceiling 89 times since 1939, 18 times for Reagan and 19 times for Bush it is argued.  What's the big deal this time? (Because he is black? No. Because we 43% unfunded and not even pretending to end the ponzi-scheme.) With Reagan the congress was Democrat and the domestic spending was the Dem agenda.  Of course they passed increases.  With Bush, it started with reasons/excuses: there was the recession he inherited and the economic crisis in the aftermath of the 9/11.  But then compassionate non-conservative spending escalated.  It should have been stopped and it wasn't.  That congress was punished and that President lost his credibility and power.  Still Bush's ending deficit was 1/10th of Obama's typical one, roughly 160 billion to 1.6 trillion.  

When this house, senate and administration runs through another trillion without changing course, they deserve to face this argument again - before an angry electorate.  If the cuts are promised and do not materialize, if growth is promised and does not materialize, then the hard issues for the next election will be front and center.

44% growth in revenues over a relatively short period is very possible, we did it between 2003 and 2007.  Next time we need to do it without the spending increases.  That will take a change of political will and a change of government.
4567  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Political Economics - Obamacare vs Job Growth on: July 24, 2011, 12:24:14 PM
I wonder if there is any way to show graphically what affect big government programs like Obamacare, with increased taxes, increased spending, increased regulations and increased government takeover of private decisions has on employment...  The break on the curve is the passage of Obamacare and the difference in the rate of job growth is ten-fold!  I guess one could argue that there were other damaging policies and uncertainties coming out of Washington in that same time period.
4568  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Budget Myths, Sen. Jeff Sessions on: July 24, 2011, 12:06:36 PM
First a followup on the MN shutdown over draconian cuts and refusal to expand the punishment of wealth, (same issues as at the national level):  The Republican offer that the Dem Governor finally agreed to, breaking the deadlock, includes a 10% actual increase in spending.   As you follow all these arguments at all levels, remember that words no longer have real meanings.

"A $2 trillion cut is only about a four percent reduction in spending that is set to increase almost sixty percent."

Budget Myths:

Ranking Budget Committee Republican Jeff Sessions has been our most consistent and reliable voice on this issue. [Thursday] he gave a speech on the Senate floor that exposed some of the myths that are circulating in the budget debate:

    First, I would like to address the myth that the president has a $4 trillion deficit-reduction plan. The only plan the White House has ever put on paper is his February budget, which doubles our national debt.

    The president has never put a single spending cut plan on paper and he has no proposal to slash the deficit. If he does, it’s a closely guarded secret. And if such a secret plan does exist it should be made public this very afternoon. I’d like to see it. I’m sure millions of Americans feel the same.

    We also have no debt plan from Senate Democrats. In fact, they haven’t even passed a budget in 813 days.

    As of now, there is only one debt limit plan on paper. Only one plan available for public scrutiny and review. That’s the plan we are debating today: cut, cap, and balance. It cuts spending immediately, it caps it so it doesn’t go up, and it requires the passage of a balanced budget amendment to ensure Washington ends the deficit spending once and for all. The American people do not trust Washington to pass some grand budget deal with tax hikes that never go away and spending cuts that never materialize. …

    Another myth I’d like to address is the idea that our current budget crisis is the result of two wars and a tax cut. Let’s consider that claim. The total cost of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, over the entire last decade, is $1.3 trillion. Again, that’s over the last decade. This year alone the deficit is expected to be $1.4 trillion dollars. War costs represent only 4 percent of total outlays over the last ten years. The total amount of money spent since the president took office is $8.5 trillion dollars. By the end of his first three years in office we will have added $5 trillion to our gross federal debt. We are borrowing almost half of what we’re spending every single day. In the last two years, non-defense discretionary spending has soared 24 percent. The stimulus package alone—enacted into law in a single day in 2009—cost more than the entire war in Iraq. Annual spending when President Bush took office was less than $2 trillion. Today, it’s almost $4 trillion. It will be almost $6 trillion by the end of the decade.

    There is only one honest answer to the question over why our debt is rising so fast: out-of-control domestic spending.

    Another myth that’s circulating which I’d like to address concerns the budget summary from the Gang of Six. The authors of the summary claim that their approach would reduce the deficit by $3.7 trillion. But my staff on the Budget Committee can only find $1.2 trillion in reduced spending, along with a tax increase of $1 trillion. Where does the other $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction come from? Chairman Conrad, one of the members of the Gang of Six, even says the outline has a $1.5 trillion tax cut. But this is compared against a baseline that assumes a $3.5 trillion tax increase. It’s just an accounting gimmick. The real cost of the tax changes could be an increase as large as $2 trillion.

    This is why we need more than a handout—we need legislative text.

    The last myth that I’d like to address is perhaps the most important of all. This is the myth that we only need about $2 trillion in spending cuts over the next ten years.

    Democrats have said—although no plan has ever been made public—that they could get behind a budget deal that reduces the deficit $4 trillion over the next ten years, half of it comprised of spending cuts. I’m skeptical that even this minimal level of spending cuts would occur. But even if it did, it’s not even close to what is needed to ultimately balance our budget. We are projected to spend $46 trillion over the next ten years. A $2 trillion cut is only about a four percent reduction in spending that is set to increase almost sixty percent.
4569  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Political Economics: Growth Economics continued, Prof. Taylor from Stanford on: July 24, 2011, 11:37:55 AM
Taylor is one economist who Gov. Pawlenty named for backing his 5% aspirational economic growth goal.  This piece is about policies and results, not candidates or parties.

The End of the Growth Consensus
America added 44 million jobs in the 1980s and '90s, when both parties showed they had learned from past mistakes. The lessons have been forgotten.

This month marks the two-year anniversary of the official start of the recovery from the 2007-09 recession. But it's a recovery in name only: Real gross domestic product growth has averaged only 2.8% per year compared with 7.1% after the most recent deep recession in 1981-82. The growth slowdown this year—to about 1.5% in the second quarter—is not only disappointing, it's a reminder that the recovery has been stalled from the start. As shown in the nearby chart, the percentage of the working-age population that is actually working has declined since the start of the recovery in sharp contrast to 1983-84. With unemployment still over 9%, there is an urgent need to change course.

Some blame the weak recovery on special factors such as high personal saving rates as households repair their balance sheets. But people are consuming a larger fraction of their income now than they were in the 1983-84 recovery: The personal savings rate is 5.6% now compared with 9.4% then. Others blame certain sectors such as weak housing. But the weak housing sector is much less of a negative factor today than declining net exports were in the 1983-84 recovery, and the problem isn't confined to any particular sector. The broad categories of investment and consumption are both contributing less to growth. Real GDP growth is 60%-70% less than in the early-'80s recovery, as is growth in consumption and investment.

In my view, the best way to understand the problems confronting the American economy is to go back to the basic principles upon which the country was founded—economic freedom and political freedom. With lessons learned from the century's tougher decades, including the Great Depression of the '30s and the Great Inflation of the '70s, America entered a period of unprecedented economic stability and growth in the '80s and '90s. Not only was job growth amazingly strong—44 million jobs were created during those expansions—it was a more stable and sustained growth period than ever before in American history.

Economic policy in the '80s and '90s was decidedly noninterventionist, especially in comparison with the damaging wage and price controls of the '70s. Attention was paid to the principles of economic and political liberty: limited government, incentives, private markets, and a predictable rule of law. Monetary policy focused on price stability. Tax reform led to lower marginal tax rates. Regulatory reform encouraged competition and innovation. Welfare reform devolved decisions to the states. And with strong economic growth and spending restraint, the federal budget moved into balance.

As the 21st century began, many hoped that applying these same limited-government and market-based policy principles to Social Security, education and health care would create greater opportunities and better lives for all Americans.

But policy veered in a different direction. Public officials from both parties apparently found the limited government approach to be a disadvantage, some simply because they wanted to do more—whether to tame the business cycle, increase homeownership, or provide the elderly with better drug coverage.

And so policy swung back in a more interventionist direction, with the federal government assuming greater powers. The result was not the intended improvement, but rather an epidemic of unintended consequences—a financial crisis, a great recession, ballooning debt and today's nonexistent recovery.

The change in policy direction did not occur overnight. We saw increased federal intervention in the housing market beginning in the late 1990s. We saw the removal of Federal Reserve reporting and accountability requirements for money growth from the Federal Reserve Act in 2000. We saw the return of discretionary countercyclical fiscal policy in the form of tax rebate checks in 2001. We saw monetary policy moving in a more activist direction with extraordinarily low interest rates for the economic conditions in 2003-05. And, of course, interventionism reached a new peak with the massive government bailouts of Detroit and Wall Street in 2008.

Since 2009, Washington has doubled down on its interventionist policy. The Fed has engaged in a super-loose monetary policy—including two rounds of quantitative easing, QE1 in 2009 and QE2 in 2010-11. These large-scale purchases of mortgages and Treasury debt did not bring recovery but instead created uncertainty about their impact on inflation, the dollar and the economy. On the fiscal side, we've also seen extraordinary interventions—from the large poorly-designed 2009 stimulus package to a slew of targeted programs including "cash for clunkers" and tax credits for first-time home buyers. Again, these interventions did not lead to recovery but instead created uncertainty about the impact of high deficits and an exploding national debt.

Big government has proved to be a clumsy manager, and it did not stop with monetary and fiscal policy. Since President Obama took office, we've added on complex regulatory interventions in health care (the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act) and finance (the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act). The unintended consequences of these laws are already raising health-care costs and deterring new investment and risk-taking.

If these government interventions are the economic problem, then the solution is to unwind them. Some lament that with the high debt and bloated Fed balance sheet, we have run out of monetary and fiscal ammunition, but this may be a blessing in disguise. The way forward is not more spending, greater debt and continued zero-interest rates, but spending control and a return to free-market principles.

Unfortunately, as the recent debate over the debt limit indicates, narrow political partisanship can get in the way of a solution. The historical evidence on what works and what doesn't is not partisan. The harmful interventionist policies of the 1970s were supported by Democrats and Republicans alike. So were the less interventionist polices in the 1980s and '90s. So was the recent interventionist revival, and so can be the restoration of less interventionist policy going forward.

Mr. Taylor, a professor of economics at Stanford and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, is the author of "Getting Off Track: How Government Actions and Interventions Caused, Prolonged and Worsened the Financial Crisis" (Hoover Press, 2009).
4570  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Political Economics - Growth: The Only Way Out of This Mess on: July 24, 2011, 11:29:22 AM
A lengthy, wide-ranging, worthwhile (IMO) piece on pro-growth economics with global and historical perspective in Commentary Magazine:
4571  DBMA Martial Arts Forum / Martial Arts Topics / Crime and Punishment: Norway 'suspect' on: July 24, 2011, 11:04:10 AM
Sad to see that by creating carnage this sick jerk gets his views publicized. 

Opinion polls have showed that only about 1 in 4 Norwegians supported the death penalty prior to this incident.  The last execution in peacetime was carried out in 1876.

Makes sense (?), in no situation should killing be the answer...

People hate the abortion analogy but that's where the legal killings are.  There is widespread acceptance of killing 14,000 unborn Norwegians per year in the public 'health' system.  In these 14k/yr situations, killing is the answer.  (But not for an unprecedented mass murderer?)

Doing without the unwanted is good for the resources of the earth (?) (citation needed)

But for the most heinous of the heinous, a capital ending is immoral?  We (as a society) will house and feed and give him humane treatment, free health care, keep him comfortable and with full legal protections for life, while publicizing his filthy manifestos. 

I'm not Norwegian but the issues are the same everywhere.  Mark me down as disagreeing.  Protect the innocent, punish the guilty and provide a certain,  lethal ending for those who commit the very most heinous of crimes against society.  His prosecution is based on only the evidence and facts of the killings.  His other views are of no public interest IMO unless it is part of a larger movement that needs to be stopped.  There is no logical link between opposing the Muslim migration and killing innocent Norwegian children and citizens.
4572  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Israel, and its neighbors on: July 23, 2011, 02:48:59 PM
GM,  Thank you for the helpful translation.  smiley

I took this: "[illegitimate] by almost any standard" to mean totally illegitimate, except if judged in the context of their silly fascination with survival.

Once again, if others would end their pledge to annihilate them, maybe we talk to Israeli about lightening up on these survival strategies that annoy everyone.
4573  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Political Economics, re. who owns America's debt? on: July 23, 2011, 02:41:04 PM
Very enlightening.  I recall seeing before that China 'only' owns a trillion or so out of $14T, when you so often hear it implied that they own nearly all of it.  The rest of the story is: who will buy the next $10 trillion or so coming down the pike, and at what cost?

They largest holder by far (19%) is the social security 'lockbox', which is a figment of our imagination, we owe ourselves that money?  Isn't SS now at about a breakeven so that removes them from 'helping' with our debt going forward.

The idea of default on these borrowings reminds me of when people suggested dismantling the evil capitalist BP, only to find out the largest shareholder is the British pension system.

We already 'default' on our total debt roughly 2-3% on a good year compounded continuously with the never-ending inflation and devaluation of our currency.  That alone wipes the slate nearly clean of dollar based debt in only a little over a couple of decades - if we would only stop borrowing more now.
4574  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Islam in Europe on: July 23, 2011, 02:18:33 PM
It is strange the only explanation that could make sense to us is an Islamic extreme religious motive, ... of course it's a perversion of any former sense of our logic that that would make any sense either. 
4575  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Issues in the American Creed (Constitutional Law and related matters) on: July 23, 2011, 02:10:37 PM
Thanks Bigdog.  I hold Thomas up there as a principled American hero.  The story of his upbringing is quite remarkable.;contentBody
4576  DBMA Martial Arts Forum / Martial Arts Topics / Re: Self-Defense Law - Norway shooting on: July 23, 2011, 08:04:56 AM
Still not clear where to discuss the human disaster in Norway.  The one common thread with these pretend tough guy cowards is that the like to shoot in places wherethe other people are likely to be unarmed.
4577  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / re. European matters- Failure in Greece on: July 21, 2011, 10:26:30 PM
Unfortunately, democracy alone does not ensure freedom.
4578  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / budget process: WSJ - The St. Paul Solution on: July 21, 2011, 06:40:28 PM
Crafty has often pointed out the problems and deceptions caused by 'baseline budgeting'.  In St. Paul they have admitted that the baseline is far greater than simply adding in population growth and inflation adjustment.  In fact the $5 billion 'shortfall' was merely the invention of highly paid big government biased forecasters who should be prosecuted.  There were no actual cuts or spending hikes required, but the anger and fireworks and shutdown over nothing went on until today.  In the spirit of let no crisis go to waste, Gov. Mark Dayton wanted to raise the highest marginal rate by a factor of 62.5% - over nothing.  Oblivious to the fact that we border a state with no income tax that runs ads here constantly enticing businesses to re-locate, where the Governor's own trust fund is located.

20 days without government, I noticed the bathrooms had to be closed at the wayside rests (do those janitors get back pay for work that didn't happen?) and traffic was a little lighter with the state's largest employer idle.

The St. Paul Solution
Republicans in Congress might learn a political lesson from the budget agreement in Minnesota.


The longest government shutdown in any state in at least a decade appears to have ended, as Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton of Minnesota has agreed to key budget demands by the Republican-controlled legislature. Republicans in Congress might learn a political lesson from what happened.

On Thursday Mr. Dayton took new taxes off the table and in the end agreed to a spending ceiling very close to the original GOP target. Republicans made concessions, too, but there can be no mistake that in this two-week long St. Paul stare down it was Mr. Dayton who blinked.

From the start, the newly elected governor wanted giant tax increases. Under his proposal, the top income tax rate would have risen to almost 11% (initially, he proposed 13%) from the current top rate of just below 8%. Republicans didn't cave to the class warfare, even as the press carped at how unreasonable they were being. But Minnesota voters seemed to understand that the state would only make its economic troubles worse by increasing costs to employers.

Republicans also set spending at $34 billion for two years, compared to the $37 billion that the Democrats sought. But after two weeks that saw everything from the parks to most government agencies to pubs shut down (no business permits), Mr. Dayton agreed to GOP demands with "serious reservations."

Republicans did agree to new revenues through bonding tobacco settlement money and shifting education payments -- an accounting trick to create the fiction of savings... Republicans remained committed to the principles that won them legislative majorities in November for the first time in more than two decades. Let's hope lawmakers in Washington were watching.
4579  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Liberal fascism, progressivism: Millionsand Millions of Green Jobs on: July 21, 2011, 06:23:28 PM
Pathological Economics:
(Why do they say they have been in "business' three years when they hnave been government supported for 3 years?)

Electric Car Maker Folds, Salinas Loses $500,000
[EMAIL: Electric Car Maker Folds, Salinas Loses $500,000] Email [PRINT: Electric Car Maker Folds, Salinas Loses $500,000]
A Salinas car manufacturing company that was expected to build environmentally friendly electric cars and create new jobs folded before almost any vehicles could run off the assembly line.

The city of Salinas had invested more than half a million dollars in Green Vehicles, an electric car start-up company.

All of that money is now gone, according to Green Vehicles President and Co-Founder Mike Ryan.

PHOTOS: Green Vehicles Flops In Salinas

The start-up company set up shop in Salinas in the summer of 2009, after the city gave Ryan a $300,000 community development grant.

When the company still ran into financial trouble last year, the city of Salinas handed Ryan an additional $240,000. Green Vehicles also received $187,000 from the California Energy Commission.

Salinas Mayor Dennis Donohue said he was "surprised and disappointed" by the news. City officials were equally irked that Ryan notified them through an email that his company had crashed and burned.

Salinas Economic Development Director Jeff Weir said Green Vehicles flopped because of a lack of investors.

Donohue said he will work with the state to try to get at least $240,000 back from the now-defunct company.

Mike Ryan
Green Vehicles President and Co-Founder Mike Ryan

Last year, Salinas city officials said they were excited about Green Vehicles moving from San Jose to Salinas because they wanted to turn Salinas into a hub for alternative energy production.

City leaders wooed Green Vehicles to jump-start the sputtering local company and turn Salinas into an "electric valley." Donohue and Weir both voiced their high hopes for Green Vehicles.

The start-up company promised city leaders that it would create 70 new jobs and pay $700,000 in taxes a year to Salinas.

Green Vehicles was supposed to be up and running by March 2010 inside their 80,000-square-foot space at Firestone Business Park off of Abbot Street.

Ryan had lofty goals, listing his company's mission as: "To make the best clean commuter vehicles in the world; To manufacture with a radical sense of responsibility; To engage in deep transparency as an inspiration for new ways of doing business."

Green Vehicles designed two vehicles, the TRIAC 2.0 and the MOOSE, which it planned to manufacture.

On July 12, Ryan wrote a blog post announcing that his company was closing.

"The truth is that not realizing the vision for this company is a huge disappointment," Ryan wrote.

Ryan outlined three mistakes he made while steering his company into a brick wall. All three reasons boiled down failing to generate enough capital.

Click the video below to watch Ryan being interviewed last year.

4580  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Hillbillary Clintons long, sordid, and often criminal history on: July 21, 2011, 06:15:18 PM
Caption: 'Hillary Learns that Statute of Limitations has Elapsed on her Commodity Trades'.

One would guess from the relaxed look on the picture that she is not running.  It should be safe now for sane Democrats to start an Anyone-but-Obama 2012 search.
4581  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: America's Inner City on: July 21, 2011, 03:47:13 PM
JDN, Bicycles are great.  You are governed by liberals, lol.  It reminds me of hate crime laws banning violence against gays.  Strangely I would want equal protection if I were a hetero-unicylist, but that's just me.  Regarding the motorcycle, on the roads I prefer my Honda 200 to a bicycle because I think it is safer to keep up with the flow.  My latest bicycle is electric assist for improved range and velocity ( should be an aging 'warrier' post).  Fed laws say the locals have to accept these on the bike trails up to 20 mph.  We'll see how that goes.

For both pedestrians and bicyclists, we have these aggressive crosswalk laws here, maybe everywhere.  It gives the vulnerable a false sense of security that they can step out and a car has to stop.  A car though does not have to stop, the driver could be texting or the brakes could fail.  Reminds me of sailboats having the right of way over power boats.  Funny for one thing because we often go faster than powerboats.  Over time you learn that you only have right of way if someone who sees you yields it to you.
4582  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces on: July 20, 2011, 12:52:49 PM
The Prager piece is a nice synopsis of the problem.  We have some more left leaning people on the board.  Would anyone argue that these things are not happening or that it really isn't that bad??

For a whole cross-section of America, government has become the provider, but government is only the vehicle.  We are mandating/coercing other people to be the provider including the next generation.  It is common for conservatives complain on behalf of the people carrying the extra burden, but it misses the central point here.  The programs, by and large, damage the recipients even worse.
4583  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Media Issues: WSJ Foxified? on: July 19, 2011, 02:51:58 PM
Coming back to a previous Crafty post recently and back around the time Murdoch tookover:

What I notice is that the WSJ perhaps stands alone in the fact that there really is a firewall between the news departments and the editorial writing.  In that sense it is two different publications.  The news side trudges on, very good in parts but no different in slant (IMO) or 'objectivity' to the NYT, WashPost, USA Today, etc.

The Editorial Page OTOH was alone in the pre-internet era in terms of direction and quality, back in the Robert Bartley days.  The transition to the current team I don't think was in any way tied to the Murdoch purchase, just generational.  Paul Gigot the current editorial page editor has great analysis and insight in politics and economics.  I believe he was Bartley's pick to replace himself and to continue what he built.  Gigot seemed to bring in a new team of writers who I would say are very good but not great.  I don't believe the overall political views they publish have changed.  (They were conservative and long before Fox/Murdoch was in TV much less newspaper.)

If you go to Real Clear Politics they show their own most read listings of the day and week.  WSJ columns get in there but you can see over time which writers and stories are more compelling than others.  Maybe WSJ should shake things up and hire away a couple of big name writers, but I see their circulation is number one in the country, more than double the NY Times, more than triple the LA Times.  In a tough business, that's not too bad.

NYT was also on the lead of Glen Beck (envy) - 'firing' story - last January, he stayed on 6 months and was still number one in his time slot with re-runs the week after he left.  They are IMO just taking this opportunity to remind liberal readers that there are conservatives elsewhere in the media to avoid.
4584  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Spending, budget process: Cut, Cap, GROW and Balance on: July 19, 2011, 01:11:16 PM
Sorry to be a broken record, but the House plan leaves out one crucial leg of the stool.  Growth doesn't need to be in this package but the spokespeople need to relentlessly remind people that the problem is not solved and will never be solved until there is a earthquake scale move toward pro-growth policies.  We aren't moving backwards to balance the budget at last year's revenue numbers.  We need a SURGE of investment, employment and revenues.  Please the bill, but people on notice that nothing in cut, cap and balance alone addresses that.  We can do the rest now or after the next election, whenever the national will and the votes are there.
4585  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Tea Party, Glen Beck and related matters on: July 19, 2011, 12:55:58 PM
I listen to some of the nation's no. 3 radio show (Glen Beck) and I hate the gold selling commercials.  Gold is defense and a (often smart) bet against the the dollar and the success of the US and the world economy.  It is an unproductive investment for capital on the sidelines instead of pumping it into plant expansion, new hiring, venture capital, S&P, DOW, corp. bonds, etc.  There are times hopefully coming where you don't want your money in gold or your commercials in gold selling.

The reason they are on is because political hyper-partisanship drove off the other companies.  The ads should be more Pepsi, Budweiser, Target, whatever, except the left is organized and shrill and creates a firestorm when publicly held companies put money there.

One notable exception is the locally based sleep number company.  Not politically conservative management but they partner with Rush all these years because they like selling beds to his audience.  Turn to liberal radio and they partner there too.

The shrill crowd would love to find something unsavory with Goldline, maybe they will.  Another tack they could take would be to walk the walk on free speech.
4586  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Government programs & regulations, spending, budget process on: July 18, 2011, 11:11:49 PM
The BBA (IMO) is a misnomer like Dems usually do.  I oppose a simple balanced budget amendment, but this one has a hook in it, an 18% cap on spending.  I favor the cap and I favor the supermajority required to raise taxes.  So I favor it the way it is, but if it were amending to just a BBAthat becomes mostly a prescription for unlimited spending and automatic tax increases to match.
SC Gov. Nikki Haley in this video - Must see, IMO. There are some tough Republican Governors out there.  Haley with TX Gov Rick Perry has coauthored support of the BBA from the states or which 3/4 would be required if it ever got 2/3 vote House and Senate.

4587  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 2012 Presidential on: July 18, 2011, 11:05:30 AM
Too bad about his cancer, I didn't know that.  Herman Cain is a great guy but not the next President.  I didn't hear the long version of his Mosque point, it was something to the effect that being Muslim means favoring a state established religion and a religion-run state, violating of our 1st amendment and community standards therefore citizens should have a right to block that in their neighborhood?? I don't agree and didn't take Crafty to imply he did either, but if there was a valid point in there, a serious candidate needs a better political sensitivity and awareness of what comments will sidetrack, not lead us to the solution for all that is going wrong right now.  Bachmann will be next to digress or sidetrack if I were to guess.  

Perry likely to get in, people say. Has the oratory skills, tea party credentials and the most governing experience of any of them.  Has something in common with Barack Obama; he took over an economy left behind by George W Bush.  Differing results.  Created more jobs recently than the rest of Obama's America.
4588  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Immigration issues on: July 18, 2011, 10:35:45 AM
Absent from the discussion if I read this correctly is that the Mexicans in America were booing America publicly in America, on a Rose Bowl scale.

JDN, When you wrote previously that people on the board oppose legal immigration, I recall CCP sharing that view but most I think support legal immigration or even expanding it.  We live in different parts of the country, work or operate in different crowds and see different things.  I respect and trust CCP's vieweeing and hearing things that I haven't.

I suspect JDN's Japanese friends were NOT booing America, at least not to their faces.

The whole episode makes me rethink my position on liberal, legal immigration.  My support has been based on the premise that there are plenty of people around the world who could contribute to our society and economy and would love to come to America, become Americans, and love this country as their own.  That premise may very likely be false.  Japan is also a great country and Mexico could be.  If that is where your national price is, then build a great nation there.

If Japanese or Mexicans or Tajiks or anyone else want to come here to be Japanese people, Mexicans, Tajiks or anyone else working or residing in America - we have an app for that - it comes with an expiration/renewal date, you don't get voting shares and it isn't called citizenship.

(I enjoy a good soccer match, missed all this, but for the World Cup to be settled in a kickoff... They don't settle the US Opens with a long drive contest or a serving contest or settle the NBA finals with a slam dunk contest?  I thought it was a team sport.  Those Japanese friends should be celebrating their 2-2 tie with the Americans or playing overtime.)
4589  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Tax Policy on: July 15, 2011, 04:51:12 PM
Thanks JDN. Oddly most of my liberal friends are rich too.  Poor people are too busy to concoct serious class warfare arguments. The damage done by marginal rates is to the want-to-be-rich people more than to the already-rich.  Our Dem Gov. is rich (from a successful Republican family) married a Rockefeller (now divorced), keeps his trust fund in South Dakota (no income tax), got his biggest contribution from the ex-wife (not a Minnesotan) and favors big surcharges on the rich, on their incomes and on their homes.  Meanwhile he has no clue how wealth is created or how damn tough it was to build a retail chain that is now Macy's here, Target and the world's (former) best seller of books. (My uncle ran their company when the adults determined there weren't any more competent family members to take over.)

Yes you (and I) have friends that are rich and liberal and being rich and liberal today means saying you are willing to pay higher taxes.  Do they really mean higher than 58% + 9.3% state (Calif), double taxed on corporate income components plus sales tax, property tax and on and on?  Marginal rates already to be greater than 70% and still want higher?  Do they show any other behaviors, sending extra money to the government (keep the change, lol), not taking advantage of moves, deductions, preferences available  to indicate they want to pay more than they do now?  - I didn't think so.

It's all rhetorical.  People like that, your friends and mine, are people I seek to defeat not persuade.  I favor efficient taxation, not punitive, redistributive or emotional taxation. 

On the other point, that small tax rate increases don't affect business openings, hirings, expansions... it is empirically false whether you feel that way or not.  The increase you mention is small, but it is on top of everything else in terms of other taxes, strangulating regs and other costs driven up by overblown government policies.  Yes, it ALL matters.

The idea of slimming down on deductions only pulls even more money out of the private economy - a contractionary policy - unless that is combined with using the loophole closures to lower the marginal rates - the primary disincentive to produce.

Most of those alleged "loopholes" like corp jet owners are proposing to take away 5 year depreciations and make them 7 year when the incentive in the first place was part of Obama's big stimulus. Big f'ing deal.  The change would have no real affect on those who already have their jet and deducted it, but would kill those who play a part in building jets.  We've tried stuff like that before.  The right answer is to depreciate the jet by the amount that it depreciated (imagine that?) which like a car is a huge amount the moment you drive it off the showroom floor. Don't they have a Kelley Blue Book for aircraft?  Another way is cash basis accounting.  Deduct the expense, then 1099 the income when you sell.  The only rationale in the current or proposed plan is demagoguery-based depreciation.  Why is 7 years right and 5 years wrong.  It is all arbitrary and the same people that did it blame me for supporting a rich guy who takes a deduction that THEY concocted in government-based economics.  If the tax rate wasn't astronomical, the depreciation schedule wouldn't be so crucial.
4590  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Venezuela: Chavez heading to Brazil for Chemo? on: July 15, 2011, 04:08:51 PM
A Venezuela update and a healthcare story in one. One might recall that Cuba has the best doctors - or not.  Actually I think it is the US that highest the highest survival rate of the afflictions we are most likely to get like prostate cancer.  So Hugo is going to Brazil rather that eat his pride.

Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan president, will travel to Brazil for cancer treatment, a source in the Brazilian government has told Reuters news agency.

The Venezuelan President will come to Brazil's Sirio-Libanes hospital, but no timeline has been set for his arrival, the source said on Thursday.

There was no immediate confirmation from Venezuelan government. Asked if Chavez would go to Brazil for treatment, a high-ranking government official said: "I don't know."

Last week Chavez said he may have to receive chemotherapy.

The Sirio-Libanes hospital is considered one of the best in Latin America and is renowned for its cancer treatment centre.

Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo had cancer treatment there and Brazilian Vice President Jose Alencar was treated there for years before he died earlier this year.

Earlier this month, the Venezuelan leader admitted in a television address that he had a tumour but had undergone a successful operation in Cuba to extract the cancerous cells.

This was his first televised speech to the nation, weeks after he was hospitalised in the Cuban capital, Havana, sparking widespread speculation about his health.

"They confirmed the existence of a tumourous abscess, with the presence of cancerous cells, which required another operation to extract the tumour completely," he had said.

Barely two days after the speech from Cuba, Chavez arrived at Maiquetia airport outside Caracas as the country was preparing to celebrate the 200th anniversary of its independence from Spain.

Addressing his supporters from the balcony of his presidential palace, Chavez vowed to win the battle to regain his health.

He thanked Fidel Castro, the iconic Cuban leader, saying that the veteran leader has been practically his "medical chief" while recovering in Cuba. He said he will "win this battle for life."

Chavez's announcement that he had cancer shocked the country of 29 million people and upended the OPEC nation's politics, which he has dominated for 12 years.

It raised questions about whether Chavez will be able to run for re-election next year.

Last month, Venezuela's government postponed a regional summit, citing President Hugo Chavez's health.

Ever since the 56-year-old leader was rushed into emergency surgery in Cuba on June 10, news about his health has been a matter of great speculation, and even his close aides have little clue about the seriousness of his disease.
4591  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Tax Policy on: July 15, 2011, 04:01:37 PM
Assuming our shutdown ending deal goes through in MN without the new Gov's increases, the resulting combined tax rate will be 66% instead of 69%.  You can keep 34 cents on your next dollar earned with the government's current blessing.  If you spend it that is another 7% so you're down to keeping/spending 27 cents?

The calculation on the federal side 58% come from Steven Hayes of the WSJ and they include the cut expirations coming as well the increases already passed in Obamacare:

There are other taxes as well.  My property taxes alone are already greater than my take-home income.

If you push-polled with taxes already going to 62%, corporate rates highest in the world and unemployment caused by overtaxing and over-regulating, you will not get 67% support for more tax hike support - in Nebraska, IMO.

People who want BIG tax increases are already getting their way.  No need to ask again and no need to vote again.
4592  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Tax Policy on: July 15, 2011, 03:43:10 PM
JDN, I have seen those polls go both ways depending on how asked.  Also those national polls don't help Ben Nelson in Nebraska, etc. 

More importantly, do YOU want tax rate increases (on job creators) with the spending cuts.  Are higher taxes than we have now really balanced policy or centrism?
4593  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Way Forward for the American Creed on: July 15, 2011, 03:39:06 PM
On the first redstate post (Erick Erickson) I was going to say they are pretty reliable conservative source though they looked happy to post partial facts and turn on McConnell quickly.

This, though, is unfair:

"Heck, you haven’t even saved the incandescent lightbulb."

James Tarranto, WSJ: "House Republicans failed yesterday in an effort to repeal the Bush-and-Pelosi-era ban on traditional incandescent light bulbs, which begins to take effect at the end of this year. The vote was 233-193  in favor of repeal, but the bill was introduced under a procedure that required a two-thirds supermajority."

They won by 40 votes, party line vote, I'm sure.  They didn't so much fail to repeal but they failed to convince Democrats to join them who failed to hear an uproar from the American people.  They failed to expose rules that continually allow one congress to bind a future congress against their will and against a basic tenet of freedom: consent of the governed.

Failure to save the freedom to choose your own light bulb falls squarely on the Dems and nowhere else.  Who needs friends who falsely imply otherwise.

On the rest of it the guy is entitled to his opinion but he is just as misguided as Obama is to believe you control Washington when you hold one body or one branch.  This was a two election rescue and even if the second goes perfectly, hold the House, win the Presidency and take majority with say a 55-45 margin in the Senate, Republicans still won't have full control.  You still have to be smarter and more persuasive than your opponent.  Beating up on your own doesn't get you there; it should be used wisely and sparingly.  MHO.
4594  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Cognitive Dissonance of His Glibness: Demagogic Dishonesty on: July 15, 2011, 12:24:37 PM
I hate to pile on, but I can't remember seeing this covered here:
Whoops, Obama lied repeatedly about his mom's health coverage:
It's not a health care issue, it's a character flaw.
4595  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Cognitive Dissonance of His Glibness, Rationality above emotion? on: July 15, 2011, 12:19:02 PM
CCP,  Even the 'temperament' is a myth according to an opinion on the Wash Post site yesterday:
The myth of Obama’s great temperament
By Jennifer Rubin

During the 2008 campaign Obama-spinners and nearly the entire press corps (I repeat myself) bandied about the notion that what the candidate lacked in experience (none when it came to running anything other than the Harvard Law Review) he made up in superior temperament. He was cool, calm, unflappable — a sort of Mr. Spock who put rationality above emotion. Has there ever been a worst case of false advertising?  Throughout his presidency Barack Obama has shown himself to be thin-skinned and cranky...
4596  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Government programs & regulations, spending, budget process on: July 15, 2011, 12:08:49 PM
The compromise, if there is one, needs to be 3 dimensional, debt limit, spending cuts and movement on pro-growth.  Republicans are talking about only the first 2 and Dems want pretend spending cuts combined with a worsening of growth policies.

a) Limiting and raising the debt limit is a lever to exchange for real improvements on the underlying budget problems: spending and growth.

b) Spending is out of control and future cuts don't count.  Cuts need to be immediate with some structural changes in entitlements and in process.  It's not realistic to get the full fix in an emergency session with divided government, but real movement has to be in the right direction - or why compromise?  One report is that Dem cuts offered equal $1 billion immediate - that is less than 1/1000th of the immediate problem and 1/14,000th of the debt problem.  We would go from borrowing 43% of what we spend to borrowing 43% of what we spend and from owing 14.3 trillion to owing 16, 17, 18 trillion in short order.  Why give an inch for that?

c) Pro-growth policies: there has to be some movement toward alleviating the burden of our anti-growth laws or the deficit and debt burden crises will NEVER ease.  Tax rate increases move us in the opposite direction.  If not tax cuts, if not a total re-write of the tax code, if not repeal of bad regulations, then perhaps a moratorium on one thousand of the most counter-productive regulations.  Real movement on energy alone that would increase production and lower the costs would stimulate nearly all businesses and households.  There will never be a balanced budget again in this country without new growth.

The House vote needs to address all 3 areas in a reasonable and realistic fashion to put the pressure back on the senate and president.
4597  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Cognitive Dissonance of His Glibness - BBA on: July 15, 2011, 11:04:28 AM
Constitutional Law Professor Barack Obama ruled out extreme measures in a budget deal like the Balanced Budget Amendment.  Constitutional amendments do not go through the Executive Branch and are none of his business, except to comply if ratified.
4598  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Stratfor: Russia's Great Power Strategy on: July 15, 2011, 10:33:05 AM
Good analysis IMO.  I see that I already wrote my reaction to it from the last Strat on Russia: America artificially drives up the power and influence of Putin and Russia with our own declinist policies of refusing to produce sufficient energy.
4599  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Immigration issues on: July 14, 2011, 05:56:17 PM
"Ask not what our country can do for you, ask what you (immigrant) can do for our country."

 smiley  Isn't that what they ask now - in the tunnels under our southern border where we pass out sample assault rifles.
4600  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: US Economics, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies on: July 14, 2011, 05:53:54 PM
Great question CCP.  Revenues are something like 2.5 trillion.  That is the start of what you have to work with if you don't raise the debt limit.  Spending was supposed to be something like $3.8 trillion. In theory we would go ahead with 'essential services' governing and sending out 'checks' up to the 2.5 trillion limit which is more than a trillion of instant cuts.  If Dems would agree to that they could more easily agree to just half that and still get their debt limit raised.  In reality, Dems like the current governor in MN end all the things first that hurt the most to turn up the heat on his opponents because the issue to him is all political, not economic.

If we are 40% unfunded, then without tax increases or borrowing we in theory would layoff very roughly 40% of federal government workers.  Those people could instantly become successful entrepreneurs... more likely they start looking like the state workers and teachers that were hanging around the state capital in Madison during the recent unrest.  Also they would flood and overload local aid offices if instantly unfunded by the feds.

No, a trillion dollar 'layoff' with no phase in and no simultaneous adoption of pro-growth private sector policies I think is a prescription for chaos and unrest.  I called it earlier all root canal and no pain killer.  Like the frog in the water on the stove top, We need to apply the heat gradually IMHO.
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