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4951  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: US Economics, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies on: April 15, 2013, 03:54:36 PM
Respectfully, as I stated before - I have zero faith in Wesbury's analysis or predictions for two reasons:
1) He advises the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and therefore has a strong incentive to make that institution look good.
2) He has a horrible track record going back at least to 2009 - as evidenced by the interview from that year I posted earlier.

I take his opinions with a grain of salt, but the Wesbury posts also contain facts in the sense of reported economic figures, and it is good to hear opposing opinions explained. 
4952  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Immigration issues on: April 15, 2013, 12:05:04 PM
One point made against 'do something', a.k.a. 'comprehensive reform', is that surrender on this won't win Republicans any votes.  This is true.  But it would potentially begin to allow them to compete for Hispanic votes based on other issues.

To GM's very valid point, some of the blame for illegal immigration goes to the U.S. for having unenforced laws.   We even have a federal government that prevents states from enforcing these laws.

On the positive side, I will be amazed if all these people will be pay taxes and but not be eligible to receive any federal benefits for more than a decade.  If true, that alone would put their votes on fiscal matters in play.

Beware of the slippery slope legislative strategy though.  After a tough, tough, tough bill is passed, the panderers will still say how unfair it is that all these now-legal residents can't vote or receive benefits and will push for more 'reform'.  I don't think you can protect against that in a bill.  It is extremely hard to negotiate with weasels.
4953  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Immigration issues -Byron York: A look inside the bill and how they will sell it on: April 15, 2013, 09:52:05 AM
A look deep inside the Gang of Eight bill — and how they’ll sell immigration reform to conservatives

April 15, 2013 | 2:46 am
Byron York
Chief Political Correspondent
The Washington Examiner

Republican members of the Gang of Eight know they’ll have a tough time selling comprehensive immigration reform to a significant number of conservatives.  Of course some in the GOP are still panicked by last November’s election results and will be inclined to sign on to almost any deal.  But many of the more conservative Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill will have to be convinced that the Gang’s proposal is an acceptable way to go.  It won’t be easy.

Starting this week, with the release of the bill, the Gang will launch an extensive public information campaign — lots of press releases, frequently asked questions, and fact sheets specifically addressing the concerns about reform that conservatives have raised in recent months.

The short version of their case: The Gang proposal will be tough, tough, tough; it will be based on stringent requirements that security measures be in place before many of its provisions take effect; it will avoid the moral danger of rewarding those who entered the country illegally; and it will take care to protect the U.S. economy.  And then there will be a final, mostly whispered, argument: If Congress doesn’t pass the Gang bill, Barack Obama might unilaterally legalize the millions of illegal immigrants in the country today in an adult version of his Dream Act decree, doing so without securing the border in an act that would be impossible for a future president to reverse.
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In sum, what the Gang is planning is a sales job followed by a nightmare scenario.

First the toughness.  The bill will be based on a three-part enforcement scheme. First is a universal E-Verify system, which means that every business in America, even those that have one, two, or three employees, will be required to comply with the federal E-Verify law.  Every person hired in every business will have to produce either a passport or a driver’s license from a state that requires proof of citizenship for a driver’s license.

Second is an entry and exit system at all airports and seaports that will track visa holders to ensure that they do not overstay their allotted time in the country.

Third is border security, which the Gang will define as 100 percent “situational awareness” — that is, surveillance of the entire border — plus the ability to catch 90 percent of the people who try to cross it illegally.

The GOP Gang members know full well that the federal government has promised all those measures and more over the years, and the border is still not secure and businesses still hire illegal immigrants.  For example, Congress has passed multiple laws requiring entry-exit systems similar to what the Gang will propose, and the system has never been built.  So Gang members know that conservatives, at least, will be skeptical.

The answer the Gang hopes will reassure those skeptics is the concept of triggers.  They’ve set up three points at which the bill’s requirements will have to be met before the process can continue.

The first, and by far the weakest, trigger is for the legalization of the estimated 11 million immigrants in the country illegally.  In addition to requiring that immigrants pass a background check, be fingerprinted, pay taxes and a fine (which will be in the thousands of dollars), and prove they have been in the U.S. continuously at least since December 2011, the Gang bill will require that the Department of Homeland Security issue a “notice of commencement” confirming that it has prepared a plan for border security, including fencing and surveillance, that will meet the 100/90 percent requirements.  In addition, the Department will have to confirm that it has the funding to begin implementing the plan.  When that notice is made, then an illegal immigrant who has fulfilled the other requirements becomes what the bureaucracy will refer to as an RPI — a Restricted Provisional Immigrant.

Trigger number two will come five years after Homeland Security’s notice of commencement.  If the Department has not met the 100/90 percent requirement by then, the border commission that was created in the original bill — made up of the governors and attorneys general of the four states bordering Mexico — will no longer be simply an advisory panel but will become a policy-making panel, charged with creating and implementing a border security plan that must meet the 100/90 percent requirement.  The commission will have five more years to get the job done. How a commission of governors and state officials can be given the authority that constitutionally belongs to the Congress and the executive branch is not entirely clear, but that is what the bill will call for.

Once the 100/90 percent requirement is met, however it is done, then the Restricted Provisional Immigrants will be within sight, although a long sight, of a path to citizenship.  The Gang plan calls for RPI status to last six years.  After those six years, the RPI must re-apply for the same status, for an additional four years.  To have his RPI status renewed, he must pay an application fee and an additional fine, on top of the one he paid six years earlier when he first became an RPI.  He cannot have been convicted of any crime during those six years, or he will no longer be ineligible.  And he will have to prove that he has been gainfully employed during those six years, earning at least 125 percent of the federal poverty level.  (The figure will be higher for RPI’s with families to support.)

After an initial six-year term, and then four more years, the immigrant will have been in RPI status for ten years.  That is when the final trigger comes in. After that decade-long period, the Gang plan will say, if E-Verify has been fully implemented, and if an entry-exit system has been fully implemented, and if the border security plan has been implemented, then the RPI will be eligible to apply — not receive, but just to apply — for a green card.  The immigrant won’t be required to do so; he can remain an RPI for as long as he likes at that point.  But if he does apply for a green card, then he will face another multi-year wait for eventual citizenship.  The Gang stresses that green cards will be given out on a staggered basis, not all at one time, so no more than, say, two million immigrants will receive them in any single year.  (That number is still under negotiation.)  If any key part of the security requirements remain undone, the Gang says, then there will be no green cards.

In all, Gang members estimate the entire process, from illegal immigrant to citizen, could take at least 18, and as many as 22, years.  At the same time, the Gang hopes to have wiped out the backlog of people waiting to enter the United States legally.  Gang members want the RPI process to be slow in part to make sure that anyone who applied legally to enter the U.S. at roughly the same time as the new reform went into effect would be virtually guaranteed of receiving a green card before anyone who came here illegally.

During the long waiting period, the Gang stresses, the RPI will receive no need-based federal benefits, and specifically, no Obamacare coverage.  Since Congress specifically made Obamacare available to anyone who is in the country legally — not just citizens — the Gang believes it must repeal that portion of the Affordable Care Act in order to exempt newly-legalized immigrants with RPI status.  To do otherwise — to make the formerly illegal immigrants eligible for Obamacare — would bust the federal budget, the Gang says.

As complicated as all that is, there is still much, much more to the Gang proposal; immigration reform is an enormously complex subject.  But Gang members will argue that something has to be done, given the fact that so many illegal immigrants are already in the country.  The Gang’s goal was to come up with a plan that deals with those illegal immigrants while not encouraging further immigration or punishing those who are trying to come here legally.

Even if lawmakers agreed with the proposals, or amended them to their liking, there will remain the fundamental, unavoidable question of whether the Obama administration, or the next presidential administration, will enforce the law.  Gang members will try to convince skeptics that the provisions are iron-clad.  The skeptics will likely remain skeptical.  And that’s before considering the onslaught of lawsuits that pro-immigration activist groups will file to try to undo key provisions of the law.

But GOP gang members will have one final argument, one they will most likely use privately with fellow Republicans.  If the Gang plan goes down in defeat, the argument goes, Barack Obama will be a lame-duck president who has promised key Democratic constituencies that he will take action on immigration reform.  He has already used his executive power to unilaterally enact a version of the Dream Act.  If Congress denies him immigration reform, according to the argument, he will essentially do for the entire illegal immigrant population what the Dream Act did for young illegal immigrants: legalize them by declining to enforce current law.  With the stroke of Obama’s pen, millions of illegal immigrants will become legal.

And it could all happen, the Gang members will argue, without any of the strict enforcement measures — E-Verify, entry-exit, border security and more — that are in the Gang bill.  And Obama’s unilateral legalization would be virtually impossible for a future president, Republican or Democrat, to reverse.

In other words, after all the provisions and requirements and triggers, the ultimate Gang argument to conservatives and Republicans will be: Pass our bill, or face utter disaster.

The debate begins this week.
4954  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Marco Rubio! on: April 15, 2013, 09:48:31 AM
Marco Rubio has put his future on the line with the immigration bill deal.  The debate and amendment process is next, so the details discussed are not necessarily the final details.

"Rubio’s television appearances Sunday mean he is in for the long haul. But Rubio hasn’t committed to voting with the Gang of Eight on every amendment that comes to the floor, underscoring the narrow line he will likely walk throughout the legislative process. Rubio said Sunday he would stand against poison pill amendments but would also walk away if the final bill violated his principles."

Rubio also used his Sunday media blitz to hone a conservative message for a party rebranding itself. “We are the party of upward mobility; we are not the party of the people who have made it,” he told “Meet the Press.” The GOP is the party “of people who are trying to make it.”

Conservatives pundits are already fuming at the stupidity:
4955  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Media Issues on: April 15, 2013, 09:28:52 AM
The ignored Gosnell trial also begs the question, what if he had used a gun?  Would they cover it then?
4956  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Cognitive Dissonance of His Glibness and Gosnell on: April 15, 2013, 09:26:34 AM
The ignored trial of Gosnell puts images to the beyond far left policies that State Senator Barack Obama from Illinois sponsored.  If the intent was to kill the baby, kill the baby.  Who knew that abortion rights could get ugly?

OTOH, Wouldn't it be more liberal and caring to protect those who are most vulnerable?
4957  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Venezuela on: April 15, 2013, 09:10:39 AM
Very sad and disappointing.  

"One electoral board member suggested a physical recount of the ballot. They would not be doing that if they had to fudge the results, I don't think."

A recount would be nice anyway to establish trust in the vote count and put would-be cheaters on notice for the future.

"Miguel calls it a huge victory for the opposition. How is losing a victory if it means 6 more years of the same crap?"  ... " The next step is hoping Maduro implodes."

Doesn't seem important now, but margin of victory matters in governing, and so does the approval rating after the election.

Interesting that opposition to socialism/fascism wins 49% support in Venezuela but only 27% support of Latin Americans in the US:
4958  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Venezuela on: April 14, 2013, 05:22:38 PM
Good luck Denny.  The free world could really use a win right now.
4959  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Political Economics, Anti-growth policies on: April 14, 2013, 05:15:27 PM
Victor Davis Hanson offered a good list of current policies that is causing stagnation and undermining growth.  We should be doing the opposite:

a) Have the government absorb health care, one-sixth of the economy.
b) Ensure that a correct Federal Reserve establishes near-zero interest rates.
c) Vastly expand the numbers on food stamps, unemployment, and disability insurance.
d) Raise taxes on the upper incomes, so that in many states the suspect pay 55% of their incomes in federal income, payroll, Medicare, Obamacare, and state income taxes.
e) Exempt half the U.S. households from federal income tax, so that for many April 15 is a day of credit reimbursement.
f) In matters of bankruptcy, seek to elevate pension holders over creditors and contractors.
g) Promote programs that seek to offer redress payouts to supposedly discriminated constituents and seek to excuse mortgage and credit card debt.
h) Vastly grow the number of federal employees.
i) Run chronic budget deficits to ensure redistributive growth.
j) Plan to double the national debt in eight years.
l) Cut the defense budget.
m) Keep entitlement payouts sacrosanct.
n) Conduct psychological warfare against the job-hiring classes (pay your fair share, you didn’t build that, no time to profit, fat cat, etc.).
o) Establish crony capitalism so that particular capitalists (e.g., Solyndra, GE, Chrysler, etc.) understand that anti-capitalist mandates do not apply to politically correct policies.
p) Discourage new gas and oil production that might undercut green energy and prevent gas from going “to European levels” or electricity to “skyrocket.”
4960  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver on: April 14, 2013, 01:27:38 PM
"I fail to see how direct currency convertibility between Aussie dollars and Chinese yuan will hurt the dollar in any meaningful fashion."

Agree.  It is what we are doing to the US Dollar that is potentially hurting it.

4961  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Scott Grannis: on: April 13, 2013, 09:40:33 AM
This is a great post.  Thanks to Scott and to Crafty. 

Where he loses me starts with this:  "the Republicans are going to pick up seats next year", and to presume Republicans or at least responsible economic and fiscal views will do reasonably well thereafter.

There is plenty in history to support that prediction, unless one believes there is a major political shift going on.

If you substitute 50-50 in place of that certainty, the outlook is quite a bit scarier.

While the trillion dollar deficits are narrowing, that permanent debt accumulated all that time and continues to grow, as do the unfunded liabilities.  Also accumulating is the number of people who permanently left work and the number of years since this economy has generated healthy start-up businesses, hungry to grow output and employment.

What is different with this catastrophe as opposed to say WWII or 9/11 is that we deliberately chose this train wreck and for the most part just voted again to keep it going.  If not for the political art of re-districting (Republicans lost the House election nationally by 1%), the forces of stagnation and decline would already control all branches of government.
4962  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Immigration issues: An alien likely to become a public charge is inadmissable on: April 12, 2013, 10:28:14 PM
Soon things will heat up over immigration again.  Two comments on writing an acceptable bill:

1)  Borders secured first, everyone on the right says, but how will we measure that?  It has been suggested that success will be when 90% of illegal crossings are stopped.  In this day of known terrorists attempting to carry out planned missions, stopping the amateurs from crossing is not good enough.  Stopping 90% still means hundreds of thousands are entering.

2) Not mentioned yet to my knowledge (except on the forum) is this concept in immigration law:  Federal law requires that those granted entry into the U.S. must be able to support themselves financially. The Immigration and Nationality Act specifically states: “An alien who…is likely at any time to become a public charge is inadmissible.”  How about if we make sure we honor this tradition in law in any new law!
4963  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Scott Grannis says Obj. is wrong on: April 12, 2013, 10:10:06 PM
Scott appears to have been reading my mind and today provides the chart I wished for in my previous post.

With the logarithmic scale, they make a 500% increase look rather modest.  I wonder how the DOW does on this scale.  Also wonder how other investments do in 'constant dollars'.

It should be the other way around, gold on a flat line and productive investments going steadily up.

Gold doesn't change.  It's the confidence in the dollar we measure it with that is wavering.
4964  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Government programs & regulations, spending, deficit, and budget process on: April 12, 2013, 09:11:29 PM

At the same time something we here need to include more in our analysis of BO's deficits in the unusually low percentage of tax revenues.  What is our sound bite answer to somone who says that if revenues were 19.5% then the deficit would be "only" $xxx and "only "x& of GDP?

How does a retailer with anemic sales increase revenues?  Raise the price?  Never. 

The amount of capital gains taxes the government is collecting from me is zero, same as it would be at the 100% tax rate.  The transactions that don't happen because of high tax rates are impossible to measure.  In a healthy, low tax rate economy, these same investments could have been sold and captured a new gain every 2 or 3 years.  I made a point earlier about velocity.  When things are moving, that same dollar can be paid to and earned and invested by many people and taxed many times in a year instead of once, or sitting still, or sitting on the sidelines.

Spending should be capped as percent of the economy.  But with taxes, we need to maximize the dollars to pay for the expenses, not increase or maximize the percentage.  When we try to maximize the percentage, we get the stagnation instead of revenue growth.

The other 'tax' is over-regulation.  Also hard to estimate the amount of revenue that is killing.

4965  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver on: April 12, 2013, 08:38:19 PM

"a) I'm not see any drop at all in the gold line for the year 2013 and in point of fact it has dropped over $250"

True.  I realize the chart is not updated for 2013.  Still in that time frame, gold is still miles above the S&P line.  If gold had gone to 1500 from 1200 instead of from 1700, this story line would be different.

b) more to the point, how about a chart that goes back to 1973, when Nixon-Connally took the dollar off gold and by so doing set off world-wide inflation?
What I am raising here and now is the question of the applicability vel non of the late '70s to now.  Gold went from $38 to over $800.  Percentage wise that is some 2100%!!!(double check my math someone please) 
Then look at what happened when Carter had to appoint Volcker to the Fed and V. raised interest rates?  Gold crashed.  If you bought at 800 and held, how many decades did you have to wait, interest free btw, to return to 800?
Right now we have negative real interest rates.  Can that continue?  What happens to gold when it does not?

I agree.  Time frames picked to demonstrate a point are always selective.  Same goes for stocks.  The peaks and troughs seem obvious in hindsight but not so much in real time.  Why didn't we buy more of anything at the bottom or sell more at the top?  To do so you have to turn against the thinking of the masses and the experts.

Gold is the anti-investment.  It is what you buy when things, especially monetary, are about to go to hell.  It is the opposite of investing in the economy, investing in plant and equipment for hiring and producing.  When gold makes sense it means the other choices suck, such as anything based in the US dollars or other currencies.  That is the debate we are having.  These are in-between times where we see slight growth but also stupidity and stagnation. 

The people who pulled money out of other investments to buy gold already did that.  These fundamentals have looked the same for a long time now.  In order to buy more now, you first need to make more money in the productive sector, pay taxes on it, and then move it to gold.  But gold buyers were pulling their money out of the productive economy so making more there that just keeps getting harder.  It is very hard to drive the price up further from such lofty levels.

The comparison to the 1970s is only partly valid. That same day in 1973 Nixon enacted fascist price-wage controls because the inflation scare was already so severe and then inflation went on to double again by the end of the decade.  Today there is denial of inflation and we have a Fed that can barely remember that the value of the dollar is part of its mission. 
4966  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Gosnell trial coverage on: April 12, 2013, 04:14:52 PM
Reserved Press seating at the Gosnell trial:

Dead babies. Exploited women. Racism. Governmental failures. This should be a front page story!

Even the journalist who showed up (and took this picture) had his story pulled:
    What I saw at the Gosnell trial (blog) ‎- 16 minutes ago
    By J.D. Mullane ... “Big enough to walk me home,” joked Gosnell when he saw the child's remains, testified Ashly Baldwin, a clinic employee.
    404 error  Sorry, the page you requested could not be found.

"This case is about a doctor who killed babies and endangered women. What we mean is that he regularly and illegally delivered live, viable babies in the third trimester of pregnancy - and then murdered these newborns by severing their spinal cords with scissors," it states. "The medical practice by which he carried out this business was a filthy fraud in which he overdosed his patients with dangerous drugs, spread venereal disease among them with infected instruments, perforated their wombs and bowels - and, on at least two occasions, caused their deaths."
Hard to prosecute one flagrant killer when the whole aim is to kill.  Hardly newsworthy after reporting constantly on the killing of 40+ million in American alone since Roe-Wade, with or without this disgusting abuse.
4967  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Government programs, spending, deficit, and budget process on: April 12, 2013, 03:55:42 PM
This chart is from Scott G (and BEA):

Looking at the past 45 years we should constitutionally set federal spending limits at 19.5% of the economy.  Below that is wishful thinking and spending above that is generational theft.
4968  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Miami Herald: Venezuela's chance to move forward on: April 12, 2013, 03:34:54 PM
Good luck Denny S. !

The Miami Herald | EDITORIAL
Venezuela’s chance to move forward

Sunday’s election in Venezuela promises to open a tumultuous new chapter in the history of that South American country. For the first time in 15 years, Hugo Chávez’s name is not on the ballot, but his presence is everywhere. This election is all about him and the legacy of a decade-and-a-half of misrule.

Under normal circumstances, in any democratic country, the electorate would be ripe for a change after 15 years of upheaval that have brought misery for many and created an exodus among those who could leave, many settling in South Florida.

Chronic power outages, food shortages, devaluations, rampant crime, corrupt government aided by communist Cuba — this is the legacy of Hugo Chávez.

For Venezuelans, the choice is clear: They can move forward, restoring the democracy that Venezuela once was, or they can watch their country continue to deteriorate under a Chávez apprentice like the official candidate, Nicolás Maduro, the hand-picked political heir and current vice president.

Not surprisingly, the betting is that Mr. Maduro will win, and for that the candidate can thank his late mentor. Over the course of prolonged tenure, Mr. Chávez created a political machine that sharply curtailed the possibility that the official presidential candidate could lose.

The way Mr. Chávez won election three times and consolidated his grip on Venezuela is no secret. He controlled all the levers of political power, including the council that makes the electoral rules, counts the votes and settles disputes. He used the government’s money and power to promote his candidacy in a way that no opposition political figure could possibly match.

He stifled the independent news media and systematically dismantled the independent institutions that could restrain his power, including the judiciary.

A onetime paratrooper and frustrated coup-plotter, Mr. Chávez stacked the military leadership with loyalists and carefully watched over the ranks to ensure that no one would try to topple him from power by force of arms, as he once tried to overthrow a democratic government in 1992.

Finally, he made sure to woo the country’s large underclass by inducements such as free housing and by lavishing political attention on them, though he failed to create a path to prosperity for anyone except his political cronies, who got rich off government contracts.

All of this poses a virtually insurmountable challenge for Henrique Capriles Radonski, an opposition governor and leader of the political front arrayed against the forces of the government. Hundreds of thousands have shown up at his rallies, attesting to the underlying hunger for change.

Clearly, the playing field is slanted in favor of the Maduro ticket. In an implicit admission of potential ballot chicanery, the government has pointedly rejected any role for international election observers, such as the OAS.

But even if he wins, success promises to be short-lived.

The 50-year-old former bus driver and union leader does not possess Mr. Chávez’s rhetorical gifts, wit or political skills. His limited ability will be put to the test as the economy continues to deteriorate and Venezuelans of all stripes become more restless.

Under this scenario, the political situation could degenerate swiftly. The United States and other democratic countries in the region should stand ready to denounce government abuses and support the advocates of democracy as Venezuela enters a dangerous period.
4969  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: gold plunges on: April 12, 2013, 03:31:20 PM

A longer look at that:

4970  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: US Economics, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies on: April 11, 2013, 01:44:10 PM
"Ah, but what is the title of this thread? , , , the stock market and other investment/savings strategies."

I find myself co-mingling these topics - as does Wesbury.  We now know that the market can go up dramatically during the worst recovery in history, and yes, we missed it.

The lesson from the rear view mirror is that (assuming one had money available) we should have been buying at 6500 and any other point along that path - had we known.  But looking backward does not mean we should be buying at 15,000. 

Each investor can assess for themselves when it has all gone up too far too fast, or when it is the day before a real correction.

Last evening I asked a friend who manages investments at a major institution what they are advising at this point.  He said they are emphasizing "balance" in the portfolios, and saying hold (versus buy or sell).  Beyond his words my sense was extreme caution and certainly not exuberance as this market surpasses all expectations.

Following link is an interesting piece addressing the question of what you should have done at DOW 6500 or even half way down from its previous peak:  The answer was to buy in a bear market, using a case study of 1973-1974, and now 2008-2009.  Is the corollary of that wisdom to sell in a bull market, or as we thought in 1999, is this time different?
4971  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: POTH on gold's decline; Bitcoin crashes on: April 11, 2013, 12:28:25 PM
I would love to buy and own gold today - but not at 1500 or 1700/oz.  Maybe if the price was 1/3 of that (and if I had money).  The article is mostly negative about gold but all that really happened is that it already went up way too far too fast for too long prior to the 2 year, relatively small drop that is the focus here.  In total it went up about 4 times what stocks did over the last 12 years.

"Analysts say gold is losing its allure after an astonishing 650 percent rally from August 1999 to August 2011." ... "Even after the recent decline, gold is still up 515 percent. "

The lesson I see with gold (to apply to stocks now) is that waiting to buy until after a huge, unexplainable rise and after it is all the hype in the media is the opposite of buying low or selling high.  When something is overbought and over-hyped, stay away.  What goes up too far too fast eventually goes down.  I think they call it the law of gravity.

Those who predicted that total, global financial collapse would happen by now had their timing wrong.
4972  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: US Economics, the stock market , and animal abuse on: April 10, 2013, 03:07:26 PM
G M,  I wonder what the life expectancy is for a plow horse that works year-round, around the clock, pulls more than 2X its OSHA rated load, and replenishes only a fraction of the calories it consumes. 

Lucky for the Obama economic team the expression is only a metaphor referring to people.  Abuse far milder than this of an animal would be prosecuted.

The 5% growth prediction in 2009 is bizarre in the context of Wesbury opposing the policies of Pelosi-Reid-Obama as the opposite of what is conducive to growth.  A "V-shaped recovery", it was not.
Meanwhile the Dow just closed at a new record high.
4973  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Freedom of the Press, Aurora killer's notebook and a reporter's rights on: April 10, 2013, 12:00:22 PM
Imagine if we honored the other clauses of the constitution (like the second amendment) with this kind of no-exceptions consistency.

A Killer’s Notebook, a Reporter’s Rights
Published: April 9, 2013

SHOULD a journalist be punished for revealing a murderer’s secrets?

Jana Winter, a reporter at Fox News, covered the shooting rampage that killed 12 people and injured 58 others at a movie theater in Aurora, Colo., on July 20, 2012. Five days after the attack, she reported that James E. Holmes, who has been charged with committing the massacre, had sent a notebook to a psychiatrist before the attack.

On July 25, Ms. Winter quoted two unnamed law enforcement sources as saying that Mr. Holmes had “mailed a notebook ‘full of details about how he was going to kill people’ to a University of Colorado psychiatrist before the attack.” According to her reporting, the notebook contained “drawings of what he was going to do,” including sketches of “gun-wielding stick figures blowing away other stick figures.”

Mr. Holmes’s lawyers are now trying to compel Ms. Winter to disclose her sources, who spoke to her on a confidential basis and possibly violated a court-imposed order that was intended to restrict public access to materials in the case so as to ensure a fair trial. The defense lawyers say the information is relevant because it speaks to the credibility of law enforcement officers who, under oath, have denied leaking the information.

Lawyers for Ms. Winter and Fox News have moved to quash the subpoena, asserting that under the First Amendment and Colorado’s “shield law,” which protects reporters, she is not required to disclose her sources. On Monday, the judge in the Holmes case, Carlos A. Samour Jr., put off a decision on the motion, saying he needed to first decide whether the notebook was even relevant to the criminal proceeding.

But the case is clear-cut.

If Ms. Winter were compelled to reveal her sources — or found in contempt of court and fined or jailed for refusing to do so — it would have a chilling effect on journalists and their ability to gather information in the public interest. This should be an open-and-shut case, but it comes at a time when the Obama administration, despite its commitment to transparency, has pursued a record number of criminal prosecutions against whistle-blowers for leaking information to the press, even if the disclosures were done out of an honest desire to serve the public interest.

Colorado, like 39 other states and the District of Columbia, has a “shield law” specifically designed to protect journalists from having to disclose their sources. In Colorado, before requiring a reporter to testify about confidential sources, a court must be convinced that the information is “directly relevant to a substantial issue in the proceedings.” In this case, the identity of Ms. Winter’s sources has no bearing on whether Mr. Holmes is guilty or innocent in the movie-theater massacre. It seems like nothing more than a sideshow, a tactic by the defense lawyers to intimidate the leakers and divert attention from the criminal trial.

Over the last 40 years, courts around the nation have repeatedly recognized the strong First Amendment interest in protecting confidential news sources. One federal appellate court ruled that jeopardizing a journalist’s ability to protect the confidentiality of sources would “seriously erode the essential role played by the press in the dissemination of information and matters of interest and concern to the public.”

There is no question that Ms. Winter’s article was of public interest and concern: By reporting on the mental health of an alleged mass murderer and his apparent statements to a psychiatrist, she shed light on the dilemma mental health professionals often face in balancing confidentiality obligations and public safety concerns. (In this case, the notebook did not ever reach the psychiatrist to whom it was sent; its existence was only uncovered after the attack.)

Mr. Holmes’s lawyers argue that his notebook cannot be used as evidence against him because it is protected by Colorado’s psychotherapist-patient privilege, which prohibits the disclosure of “knowledge gained” from patients without their consent. (While Colorado law recognizes that a psychotherapist may have a duty to disclose a “threat of imminent physical violence against a specific person or persons,” it is not clear whether that duty would have applied in this case.)

This form of privilege is recognized nationally and the implications go well beyond Aurora; these issues are also central to the ongoing national debate over gun control since the elementary school shootings last December in Newtown, Conn.

If a litigant’s mere desire to punish a confidential source were enough to force a reporter to disclose the source’s identity, then journalism would be seriously jeopardized and laws protecting it would be gutted.

This seems to already be happening to Ms. Winter. “Because my sources have been intimidated by the specter of the Holmes subpoena,” she wrote in an affidavit, “reports have gone unwritten and I have been thwarted in my news-gathering.”

The case of Ms. Winter, a young reporter, has not gotten as much attention as battles over confidential sources that involve national security matters, but, given the increasing prominence of mass shootings in America and the complicated role that mental illness has played in many of these cases, her case is a pivotal one for journalists and for any American who cares about freedom of the press.

Theodore J. Boutrous Jr. is a partner at the law firm Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, focusing on appellate and constitutional law.
4974  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Media Issues: ABC, CBS and NBC Turn a Blind Eye to ObamaCare Setbacks on: April 09, 2013, 06:33:02 PM
ABC, CBS and NBC Turn a Blind Eye to ObamaCare Setbacks

By Geoffrey Dickens | April 09, 2013 | 09:56

For the past couple of weeks there has been a steady drip of bad news for ObamaCare, but you wouldn't know it if you only get your news from the Big Three (ABC, CBS, NBC) networks. From a Society of Actuaries report that determined premium costs will shoot up thanks to a thirty-three percent average increase in claims; to thirty-three Senate Democrats joining Republicans in voting to repeal an ObamaCare tax on medical devices; to a Quinnipiac University poll showing even two-thirds of self-identified Democrats saying the law will either hurt them or have no effect, the recent news has been bad for the President's chief legislative victory. However, not one of these trouble spots for ObamaCare has been mentioned on ABC, CBS or NBC's evening or morning show broadcasts.

The following setbacks for ObamaCare haven't received a single second of air time on the Big Three networks:

■ On March 22, ObamaCare hit a major snag when even 33 Senate Democrats openly defied the President as they joined 45 Republicans in voting to repeal a 2.3 percent sales tax, crucial to paying for ObamaCare, on medical devices such as pacemakers and MRI machines. The measure was co-sponsored by liberal Minnesota Democrat Amy Klobuchar, who said in a statement that she would "continue to work to get rid of this harmful tax."
Big Three coverage 0 stories.

■ On March 26, the Society of Actuaries, released a study that determined health claims will increase by an average of 32 percent with some states seeing claims rise as much as 80 percent. The study estimated that states will now have to double their health spending to cover the millions of the previously uninsured. The study went on to report that claims will be driven higher because many employers will stop covering their employees once Obamacare is instituted and those workers will be more expensive to insure than those already in the individual market.

Big Three coverage: 0 stories.

■ On March 26, Obama's own Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius admitted that premiums will rise for some people buying new insurance policies in the coming fall, because of ObamaCare requirements. As the March 26 Wall Street Journal reported: "The secretary's remarks are among the first direct statements from federal officials that people who have skimpy health plans right now could face higher premiums for plans that are more generous."

Big Three coverage: 0 stories

■ On April 3 Fox News reported that the Obama administration admitted a system of exchanges designed to make it simpler for small businesses to provide health insurance, the very core of ObamaCare's promise, will be delayed an entire year. According to Jim Capretta of the Ethics and Public Policy Center this is a huge setback because: "Lots of small businesses struggle with providing insurance for their workers so this was supposed to facilitate it and make it easier for small business to do this," and added: "It was a huge portion of the sale job. When they passed the law in 2010 there were many senators and members of Congress who were saying 'I am doing this because it's going to help small businesses.'"

Big Three coverage: 0 stories.

■ On April 4 Quinnipiac University released a poll showing that even two-thirds of Democrats now believe Obama's health care reforms will either hurt them personally or have no effect on their daily lives, vs. 27% of Democrats who believed they would be helped. Overall, only 15% of voters think ObamaCare will mostly help them personally, vs. 78% who expect it to hurt them or have no effect.

Big Three coverage: 0 stories.

OTOH, ABC had time for this on hairstyle:  "Michelle Obama making headlines again for her bangs."

4975  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar & other currencies, Gold/Silver on: April 09, 2013, 06:20:26 PM
Bill Gross of PIMCO sees Ten Year US Treasuries as benefiting from the new Japanese policy.

Also the news of the Yuan hitting a record high this month should be sweet music to those who thought China's currency manipulation (Yuan too low) was our worst economic problem.
4976  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: US Economics, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies on: April 09, 2013, 06:08:36 PM
In his Stockman reply in particular, Wesbury has reduced his optimism argument down to just investments.  These indexes with a relatively small number of named companies that already do most of their business outside of the U.S. are not in imminent danger of total collapse - yet - in Wesbury's opinion.

Wesbury agrees at least in part with the warnings:  "Yes, there are people caught in the web of government over-spending and crippling-regulation. Yes, the Fed has created too much fiat currency. Yes, big government is creating a large class of people who think living off the government is a right."

G M's piece regarding the jobs market can not change Wesbury's mind.  Wesbury's argument that the investment outlook is good comes from a rear view mirror observation that the (stock) market has already been doing well while the labor market was doing horribly.

The unknown is this: How long and how far can these things run in opposite directions?  
4977  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Lady Margaret Thatcher on: April 08, 2013, 09:41:19 AM
I had tremendous respect for her.

Yes.  She led Britain to a miraculous comeback, was President Reagan's equal and partner in leading the world toward freedom.  She started two years ahead of him.  These were historic times, standing up to the Soviet Union at its peak of power and standing up for economic freedom at home.  She was alway the obvious answer to the question of whether a woman could be President of the United States.  We can only hope to have a leader that great.
4978  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Glib White House blames lousy jobs report on the sequester! on: April 07, 2013, 12:36:04 PM
White House blames lousy jobs report on the sequester!

Solution: Higher taxes and more government spending.

a) Everything is fine.  If you don't believe a), then try:  b) Everything that is wrong is attributable to Republicans.

"The Administration continues to urge Congress to replace the sequester with balanced deficit reduction (raising taxes), while working to put in place measures (more government spending) to put more Americans back to work like rebuilding our roads and bridges and promoting American manufacturing."
4979  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Political Economics - Vanishing workforce weighs on growth on: April 07, 2013, 11:44:39 AM
First, one chart and one quote from Crafty's post yesterday in this thread, "Global Failure of Keynesianism':

"the Fed’s largesse has encouraged investors to lever up existing assets with cheap credit, but not to invest in new plant and equipment"

Yes, that is exactly right, quite an honest assessment of both the economy and the market.

Washington Post:  Vanishing workforce weighs on growth

From the piece:

"Prime-aged people are working less, and we don’t know why,” said Betsey Stevenson, a labor economist and associate professor at the University of Michigan.

My wish would be for the people who don't know why our economy is tanking to stop voting and for Labor Economist Professors at our greatest institutions of higher learning that don't know what ails the economy to seriously consider other work.

Helpful information for the clueless:  Capital employs labor.  Return on investment, after tax, motivates capital to build new enterprises that employ people.  Roadblocks and penalties cause capital to go elsewhere or sit idle.   Printing money does not produce additional capital any more than funny house mirrors make you fatter or thinner.  No new investment capital is generated with a zero savings rate.  Compounding interest is one of the most powerful forces in the universe, also unemployed. A rational person tucking away savings to compound at zero interest is either frustrated or extinct.  The reason interests rates are perniciously set at zero is because the Fed is trying to fix a non-monetary problem with a monetary 'solution'.  Trying to loosen a screw by hitting it with a hammer.

Reuters: U.S. business startups rate at record low
The entrepreneurs' share of job creation also has fallen...
...entrepreneurial companies accounted for only 12 percent of U.S. employment in 2010, compared with 20 percent in the 1980s.

While you were reading this post, the Fed just created about 15 million dollars that didn't exist before and our debt burden went up by a similar amount, while real output increased 0.0000%.
4980  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / C.U. Boulder's first Visiting Scholar in Conservative Thought and Policies on: April 07, 2013, 09:54:18 AM
Click 'Listen' at the link for a brief Colorado Public Radio interview.  A bold experiment, what if kids get exposed to this stuff?|University_Appoints_First_Professor_of_Conservative_Thought
4981  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Cognitive Dissonance of His Glibness - Hope, Obamanomics and Change on: April 05, 2013, 02:42:26 PM
4982  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / "discrimination": Cats and Dogs on: April 05, 2013, 02:38:08 PM
We are talking about government licenses and definitions here, not comparing humans to animals.

Cats and Dogs and Marriage Laws
by  Stephen J. Heaney   Witherspoon Institute, Princeton NJ

A fellow walks up to the dog-licensing clerk and demands a license for his cat. The clerk points out that there is no such thing as a cat license, and thus he has no need of a cat license. Noting the man’s confusion, she explains that dogs and cats are different kinds of animals. Dogs tend to wander off and get lost, dig up other people’s yards, bite people, get into garbage, and leave their droppings in inconvenient places; cats generally do not do these things. Licensing would be pointless, for the government doesn’t need the same control over cats as it does over dogs.

The customer feels unaffirmed in his choice of a cat, and demands that the government recognize that his cat is just as important as a dog. Oh, but it’s not a question of importance, the clerk insists; it’s just that cats and dogs are quite different, and there is no government interest in licensing cats. He pesters her for so long that, eventually, the clerk, in sheer frustration, grabs a form, crosses out the word “dog” and writes in the word “cat” in crayon. The customer goes away pleased.

Unexpectedly, some of the man’s cat-owning friends soon follow suit. This raises concern for the licensing administrators. They really cannot justify taking money to license cats, yet it seems many people are made quite happy by having their choices validated. Finally, it occurs to someone that, since dogs are four-legged furry mammals with tails and claws, and cats are four-legged furry mammals with tails and claws—and after all, this really is the only set of characteristics that matters—then the obvious thing to do is to redefine “dog” so that it includes cats.

This decision is not without its detractors. Some sticks-in-the-mud point out that the definition is so broad that it also includes bears, rabbits, gerbils, and ferrets, not to mention the incredibly obvious fact that cats simply are not dogs, and that redefining them does not change this fact, and that changing definitions based on policy preferences will only lead to problems. These arguments fall on deaf ears. The city council makes it official, redefining “dog” to include cats. Why cat owners feel affirmed by having their cats renamed “dogs” remains a mystery.

Several more cities take up the call to rename cats “dogs,” but most towns resist because, as they point out, it’s simply not true that cats are dogs. The state legislature is besieged with efforts to rename cats as dogs. The state has always left policy choices about cats and dogs to local deliberations, but is now in an awkward position. It runs several venues that admit dogs but not cats; it has compensation policies that are differently affected by ownership of cats rather than dogs.

No state legislator or administrator has ever thought it necessary to define “dog,” since everyone knows what a dog is, and what a dog is has not changed in the entire history of humankind or caninekind. It is also plain as the nose on everyone’s face that dogs are not cats, and vice versa.

Failure to define the term, though, will only lead to confusion about employee compensation and mischief at state-run venues. The legislators recognize a simple fact: No matter how one defines “dog,” it cannot be the case that both definitions are true. Either “dog” will be defined according to its observable operations, or it will be defined according to its nonessential outward appearance. They decide to go ahead and define “dog” in the “traditional” way, according to the reality of dogs and cats, such that cats are excluded.

More at link:
4983  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Governance by the Left: Toxic Government by Democrats: Minneapolis on: April 05, 2013, 02:31:10 PM
"increasing the relative size of one’s political base through distortionary, wealth-reducing policies"
In the heart of the nation's 4th wealthiest metro ( is the failing City of Minneapolis.  This article could have been written about nearly any of America's Democrat-governed major inner cities.  Minneapolis is not bankrupt (yet) because many of the social costs are picked up by the rest of Hennepin County and the State of Minnesota.  Minneapolis has zero Republicans on its 13 seat city council, the rich neighborhoods are Democrat too.  Mpls is represented in Washington DC by Dem. Rep. Keith Ellison and Dem. Senators Amy Klobuchar and Al Franken.

Toxic Government by Democrats: Minneapolis
April 4, 2013 By John Perazzo

Editor’s note: The following is the first in a series of articles that will expose the misery of life in America’s poorest cities, all of which have one thing in common: they are controlled exclusively by Democrats. Each article presented by FrontPage will reveal how the production of mass urban poverty is much more than just a failure of leadership, but a means of political survival for the Left.

The city of Minneapolis, Minnesota—whose population is composed of 63.8% whites, 10.5% Hispanics, and 18.6% African Americans—has been governed exclusively by mayors from the Democratic Farmer Labor Party, the state affiliate of the Democratic Party, since 1978.

As of 2011, the poverty rate in Minneapolis was 23.5%, more than one-and-a-half times the national figure of 15%. This differential is consistent with a longstanding, well-documented trend: Virtually all of America’s poorest cities have been led politically by Democrats for many years, even decades. In 2010, for example, not even one of the ten poorest large cities in the U.S. had elected a Republican mayor since the 1980s. In fact, 8 of the 10 cities had been led exclusively by Democrats for more than half a century.

The common thread running through each of these economically decrepit cities is a phenomenon that Harvard scholars Edward Glaeser and Andrei Shleifer famously dubbed “The Curley Effect,” after its prototype, James Michael Curley, who served four non-consecutive terms as mayor of Boston between 1914 and 1950. This phenomenon, Glaeser and Shleifer explain, is the strategy of “increasing the relative size of one’s political base through distortionary, wealth-reducing policies.” Forbes magazine puts it this way: “A politician or a political party can achieve long-term dominance by tipping the balance of votes in their direction through the implementation of policies that strangle and stifle economic growth. Counterintuitively, making a city poorer leads to political success for the engineers of that impoverishment.”

This typically occurs when Democratic administrations adopt policies that redistribute wealth from the prosperous to the poor, causing the latter to become economically dependent upon their political patrons, and thus to become a permanently pro-Democrat voting bloc. At the same time, these redistributive policies cause the people harmed by them (i.e., those from whom wealth is extracted) to emigrate to other cities and states, thereby further solidifying the political power of Curleyist practitioners.

The beneficiaries of Curleyist redistributionism invariably become unable to perceive the connection between left-wing policies and their negative consequences. Instead, they view Democrats as the noble, last line of defense that stands between them and total destitution. As a result, their loyalty to Democrats persists, undiminished, regardless of how bad conditions may get—chiefly because they interpret the failures of leftist policies as evidence that those policies simply did not go far enough, probably as a result of conservative obstructionism. Thus do residents of Democrat-controlled cesspools of poverty and crime continue, in perpetuity, to elect Democrats to political office.

Prior to the permanent Democratic takeover of Minneapolis in 1978, the city’s poverty rate had been consistently lower than the national average. Then, through most of the 1980s, the ripples of the Reagan economic boom delivered a positive effect to cities nationwide, including Minneapolis. Indeed, Minneapolis added some 3,000 new jobs to its downtown area each year from 1981-87. In 1983, only 8% of the city’s metropolitan-area population lived below the poverty level, as compared to approximately 15% nationally.
But by 1988, Minneapolis’s left-wing Democratic mayor, Donald Fraser, had grown troubled by the stark contrast between those sections of his city that were thriving economically, and a number of African-American neighborhoods where crime, teenage pregnancy, and welfare dependency were widespread. Fraser believed that the proper remedy for these pathologies would be to implement a host of taxpayer-funded, government-administered social-welfare programs. “What is needed,” said the mayor, “is a more thoughtful discussion, a rethinking of the city, of welfare support, and it should begin right here.” Specifically, Fraser held that federal and local agencies needed to focus more of their attention and financial resources on the economic and social problems confronting unwed mothers and their children. His successors as mayor, Sharon Sayles Belton and R.T.Rybak, have shared this same perspective—a mindset that has fueled the decades-long trend of ever-increasing wealth redistribution and government subsidies for the poor, not only in Minneapolis but across the United States.

By no means is financial hardship in Minneapolis limited solely to low-income residents. Indeed, the city’s homeowners pay higher property taxes than their counterparts in most other metropolitan municipalities. One study of 142 metro areas found that only 15 of them bore a heavier property-tax burden than Minneapolis as of 2010, and that was before Minneapolis raised its property taxes by 4.7% in 2011.

Just as Minneapolis residents face significant economic challenges, so must they deal with the city’s sizable crime problem. In the early 1990s, crime began trending downward in much of the U.S. for various reasons, including the decline of the crack cocaine epidemic, more aggressive policing strategies, and harsher punishments for criminal behavior. New York City, under Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and police commissioner William Bratton, led the way in this regard with their CompStat crime-tracking system and their use of the so-called “broken-windows” approach to crime-prevention. In comparison to other cities, Minneapolis was slow to adopt the new law-enforcement and criminal-justice strategies and thus lagged behind the national trend for several years. But once the city changed its ways (e.g., by incorporating CompStat) in the late 1990s, it likewise experienced a noteworthy reduction in crime.

Notwithstanding this positive downward trend, however, crime rates in Minneapolis remain far higher than statewide and national figures alike. For example, in 2010 the violent crime rate for Minneapolis exceeded the corresponding Minnesota rate by 346.55%, and the overall U.S. rate by 161.03%. Similarly, the property crime rate in Minneapolis surpassed the Minnesota rate by 84.44%, and the national rate by 61.27%.

In a particularly ugly develoment, Minneapolis in recent times has been the scene of numerous incidents involving “flash mob” violence, usually by large groups of black assailants targeting white victims. For example, on March 17, 2012, a gang of some 20 young men inflicted serious brain injuries on one young man, just an hour after a large group of assailants had beaten an out-of-town couple in that same location. Six days later, without provocation, 15 to 20 suspects attacked and beat three cyclists, leaving one of the victims with a broken jaw. As Sergeant Steve McCarty of the Minneapolis Police Department observed: “It’s just mainly to create mayhem, assault people and just whatever they can do. It’s a weird mentality I don’t think a lot of people can fathom or understand. Just to victimize people.” And a few days after that, four Minneapolis juveniles assaulted two men in quick succession, rendering one of the victims unconscious and inflicting serious injuries (including a broken arm) on the other.

It has long been commonplace for Democrat-led cities to have much-higher-than-average crime rates. As of 2011, for instance, America’s ten most dangerous cities were all strongholds of Democratic political leadership. Minneapolis’s experience, therefore, is par for the course.
4984  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: US Economics, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies on: April 05, 2013, 02:07:29 PM
Wesbury is moving from apologist to humorist.

"payrolls increased 88,000 in March, well below the consensus expected 190,000" 

  - Less than half the 'breakeven rate'.  About a third of 'expectations'.  Moving backward instead of forward.  Who knew?

"the labor market is very far from perfect"

  - Understated?!  I have an image of him saying this with his head down, paying off abet he lost to G M.

Russia has a 13% flat tax, lower unemployment and twice the growth rate.  Shame on us. 
4985  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: 10.9% unemployment, holding the labor participation rate constant on: April 05, 2013, 12:34:01 PM
"if labor participation was the same as in March just one year ago, the headline unemployment rate would be 8.3 percent. If it remained the same as in January 2009, the rate would be 10.9 percent."

Still, we are just comparing with an already crashed economy.  To just get back to where we were when the Pelosi-Reid-Obama nightmare began, we would need unemployment below 4% measured by today's low standards.

Which Obama policies aim to fix this?  None of them do.  The policies are all aimed at slow growth or making things worse.  Raising tax rates on employers.  Raising the bar for hiring the unskilled to their first job.  Starting a massive new entitlement.  Blocking an energy pipeline.  Hiring 16,000(?) new IRS employees?  Blocking reform of existing entitlements.  Presenting budgets 5 years into this that never balance.  Strangulating the financial sector.  And keeping up the class warfare drumbeat instead of pulling the nation together.  When did any of these awful policies ever grow an economy or reduce unemployment?
4986  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Alan Reynolds - The Truth About Taxes and Spending on: April 05, 2013, 08:25:51 AM
Voters, and elected officials especially:  Please read this.  It isn't that complicated, with our policies we can move in either direction.

"What are the weakest economies doing wrong? What are the strongest doing right?"

Hint: Lower tax rates, lower spending.

The Truth About Taxes and Spending

By Alan Reynolds - April 5, 2013.

Published at Investors Business Daily, Cato Institute, Real Clear Politics, and DBMA Public Forum.

Several European countries, including Cyprus, have been mired in economic stagnation or decline for five years or more.

Yet other countries in Asia and Latin America have flourished. What are the weakest economies doing wrong? What are the strongest doing right?

Economist Jim O’Neill coined the acronym BRIC in 2001 to refer to four economies which showed great potential then and now — Brazil, Russia, India and China. More recently, he added four more promising MIST economies — Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey.

In mid-2008, The Economist magazine drew a sharp contrast between the booming BRIC economies and four feeble PIGS — Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. By 2010, after Ireland and Great Britain bailed out their banks, that unkind acronym was stretched to PIIGGS.

All PIIGGS have two things in common. First of all, government spending grew dramatically — from an average of 43.2% of GDP in 2007 to 52.6% by 2010.

Spending was modestly trimmed by 2012 in a few cases, yet the ratio of spending to GDP still remained 3 to 6 percentage points higher than it had been in 2007.

This sad story was repeated in Cyprus, where government spending soared from less than 34% of the economy in 1995 to 47% in 2010.

Despite this explosive growth of government spending among the PIIGGS, economist Paul Krugman’s End the Depression Now! somehow attributes southern Europe’s slump to “frantic, savage attempts to slash spending.”

In a recent New York Times column, Krugman suggested that Ireland suffers from grossly insufficient government spending, and contrasted Ireland’s alleged penny-pinching with “the true economic miracle that is Iceland … (which) thanks to its embrace of unorthodox policies, has almost fully recovered.”

What actually happened is that government spending in Ireland soared to 66.1% of GDP in 2010 — up from 36.8% in 2007 — when the government shocked the markets by bailing out the banks in September 2010. The budget deficit suddenly spiked to 30.9% of GDP. Irish bonds collapsed.

In Iceland, which didn’t throw taxpayer money at the banks, government spending was slashed from 57.6% of GDP in 2008 to 46.5% in 2012. The deficit fell from 12.9% of GDP to 3.4%. The economy began to recover in 2011.

Iceland’s economic boost from fiscal frugality was neither unorthodox nor unique. After all, the U.S. economy boomed in the late 1990s when federal spending was cut from 22.3% of GDP in 1991 to 18.2% in 2000. In Canada, total federal and provincial spending was deeply slashed from 53.2% of GDP in 1992 to 39.2% in 2007 with only salubrious effects.

When Krugman and others describe the recent European spending spree as “austerity,” that begs the key question: Austerity for whom? The PIIGGS imposed no austerity at all on the public sector in the past five years.

Government spending on bailouts, subsidies, grants, salaries and entitlements commands a much larger share of these economies than it did just a few years ago. European austerity has been focused on the private sector — namely, taxpayers with high incomes.

That is the second thing the PIIGGS have in common. The highest income tax rate was recently increased in every one of the troubled PIIGGS except Italy (where it was already too high at 43%). The top tax rate was hiked from 40 to 46.5% in Portugal, from 41 to 48% in Ireland, from 40 to 45% in Greece, from 40 to 50% in Great Britain, and from 48 to 52% in Spain.

Apparently envious of the PIIGGS, France even flirted with a 75% tax.

It is enlightening to compare the depressing performance of these tax-and-spend countries to the rapidly-expanding BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and MIST economies (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey).

Government spending is frugal in these countries, averaging 32.1% of GDP in the BRICs and 27.4% for the MIST group.

Rather than raising top tax rates, all but one of the BRIC and MIST countries slashed their highest individual income tax rates in half; sometimes lower. Brazil cut the top tax rate from 55 to 27.5%. Russia replaced income tax rates up to 60% with a 13% flat tax. India cut the top tax rate to 30% from 60%. Similarly, the top tax rate was cut from 55 to 30% in Mexico, from 50 to 30% in Indonesia, from 89 to 38% in South Korea, and from 75 to 35% in Turkey.

In China, statutory income tax rates can still reach 45% on paper, but that is only for high salaries and is widely evaded. Investment income is subject to a flat tax of 20%, the corporate tax is 15-25%, and China’s extremely low payroll tax adds almost nothing to labor costs.

Lower tax rates and faster economic growth in these countries didn’t mean bigger budget deficits. On the contrary, only one of of the eight MIST and BRIC countries (India) has a significant budget deficit.

In short, the world economy has become divided into two groups: (1) sickly PIIGGS with chronic fiscal crises and (2) booming BRIC and MIST economies with modest government spending, lower tax rates and vigorous growth of both the economy and tax receipts.

Unfortunately, the U.S. has lately been drifting nearer the PIIGGS camp. The highest tax rates were just increased and federal spending is nearly 23% of GDP — way up from the 19.2% average of 1997-2007.

If U.S. legislators hope for better results—for both the economy and the budget—they must shun the failed policies of the PIIGGS and instead embrace the proven policies of the rapidly-growing BRIC and MIST economies.

What works, these successful economies discovered, is (1) to prevent government spending from growing faster than the private economy that supports it, and (2) to reduce rather than increase the highest, most damaging tax rates.

Alan Reynolds, a Cato Institute senior fellow, is the author of "Income and Wealth."

This article appeared in Investor’s Business Daily on April 3, 2013. It is reprinted with permission from the Cato Institute.

4987  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Libertarian Issues on: April 04, 2013, 12:56:52 PM
Well, off the top of my head, certainly food/candy containing pot should be sold in a manner that no one, including children, can be confused about what it is.  Legal standards similar to those about firearms being kept inaccessible to children seem to be a real good idea.

Yes.  They already have that.  Both the gun and the bong (now all vaporizers) are hard to use in the lockbox.  Legalization only extends to persons 21 and over, no shops have opened, and yet child poisoning incidences and child THC blood levels are increasing.

Drug legalization for adults includes the reality that use and abuse by children accelerates.
"...a guy in Denver legally growing medical-marijuana in his house was charged with felony child abuse because of the dangers prosecutors said the grow posed. He pleaded guilty to two misdemeanors and avoided jail."

4988  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Scott Grannis: on: April 04, 2013, 12:34:34 PM
Crafty, going back to your original post here: "the following piece which deeply challenges many of our core assumptions"...

Quantitative expansion:  We are pouring kerosene all around, giving it no spark, and then pointing out no observed increase in fire or heat - so far.

Scott and I have reversed positions on the inflation concern, if my memory is correct.  Without finding the exact exchange, I argued a few years ago that the Fed's record against inflation was not too bad, typically 2-3% per year and it was pointed out back to me what a huge loss of value that is over any extended time period, which is true.

Now Scott argues: "The idea that the Fed is "printing money" with abandon, and that this is seriously debasing the U.S. dollar, is a fiction borne of ignorance of how monetary policy actually works."

I find his hedging, second sentence far more telling:  "Fed policy may indeed pose the risk of serious debasement in the future..."  - Unfortunately, Yes.

My view is that inflation is the diluting of our currency and that general price level increases are a consequence of that, following in time and dependent on other variables as well.

What did Milton Friedman say:  MV = PQ  

(From a previous post:
These four very important but difficult to measure variables are all intrinsically tied to each other, either proportionally or inversely.  The money supply times the velocity of money (MV) equals the total value of all the goods and services (PQ) in the economy.

We know the Fed is 'monetizing' at the rate of 3/4 of trillion dollars a year (M).  We are pouring in the dollars, literally in the trillions, and by measuring the result indirectly we are saying it isn't increasing the money supply any faster than usual.

We know velocity (V) as measured is way down, and I would argue is a poorly measured phenomenon currently understating the malaise.

We know Price levels (P) are all over the map, some up, some down, with a net result so far allegedly only at 2-3% price increases per year.

We know that the total amount of goods and services in the economy (Q), is virtually flat in our no-growth economy.

IF and when economic growth and vitality returns, then what?  Rejuvenated velocity will multiply with the trillions of accumulated monetary expansion (do we know how to put that toothpaste back in the tube?) and drive price levels to spiral up faster than actual output can or will increase.  MHO.  

I admit 'ignorance of how monetary policy actually works'.  I wish our dual mission Fed had the same humility.  My trust of the Fed knowing what they are doing would be much greater if they weren't working on the dual mission of pretending to help with unemployment, not a monetary problem, while working to maintain a stable value of our currency.
4989  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Libertarian Issues on: April 04, 2013, 10:51:12 AM
A legitimate area of concern and regulation.

Regulate abuse outside of the law?  

Making it legal, making it acceptable and making it accessible for adults somehow leads to children stoned before their brain fully develops.  

I studied the situation on my trips to the state this winter.  The 'medical' side only is what is up and running.  No new legal licensed shops for the public have opened yet.  All pot sales to the public so far are coming from medical license abuse or just through the usual crime channels.  Everyone that wanted a medical license got one if they stuck to basic points like chronic pain in their 'doctor' interview.  What a licensee can buy is virtually unlimited and the active ingredient level in your blood is something users can dial up like a volume switch, not limited by old fashioned things like coughing or lung capacity.  Low prices serve to make it more available and more available means more children using.

Next it will get much worse in terms of THC levels in the children as new production comes on line, new stores, new advertising, pot tourism, adds to the new enthusiasm gone viral, and the futility of parent warnings or prohibitions.

Then it will get worse in different ways as our 'concerned' 'regulatory' authorities get ramped up to handle all the new business.  New taxes will replace what was lost in pricing, 'legal' product will get co-mingled with smuggled, organized crime based product, tax laws will replace drug laws as the new enforcement mechanism, and the powers of the all powerful state will grow and benefit from this ill-fated movement toward liberty.  MHO.
-----  Child marijuana poisoning up for some Colorado hospitals
Apr 1, 2013

New Colo House bill passed:  drivers are too high if their blood contains more than 5 nanograms of THC per milliliter  ('Open containers' are already illegal.)

For Legal Pot Sellers, A Big Tax Problem
"I'm still treated as an illegal business," - owner of Choice Organics in Fort Collins

Next it will be Big Cannibis...

Denver Post, 30 pot legalization questions with answers:
"About the only place it is 100 percent clear you can smoke marijuana is in a free-standing home that you own."
"The amendment allows people to grow up to six plants — only three of which can be flowering, or ready for harvest, at any given time."  Selling what you grow (or procure any other way) if you aren't a legal shop (and there aren't any) is still illegal.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays in the 2016 Presidential nomination fight between Hillary and Gov. Hickenlooper.
4990  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Issues in the American Creed (Constitutional Law and related matters) on: April 02, 2013, 06:40:26 PM
"homosexuals have been discriminated against in a manner consistent with the need for heightened scrutiny"
Gay people earn more
@CNNMoney December 6, 2012: 1:37 PM ET
Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) Americans earn more, save more and have less debt, a Prudential study shows.

Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people are better at managing their money than the average American, new research shows.
They earn more, save more, have less debt and are better prepared for retirement...
Respondents not only reported significantly higher annual incomes -- $61,500 compared with the national median of $50,054 -- but they also carried about $4,000 less in debt than the average American and had $6,000 more in household savings. They were even slightly more likely to have jobs in the first place, with an unemployment rate of 7% versus the national rate of 7.9%.
4991  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / American Creed /Constitutional Law: One more challenge for Obamacare on: April 02, 2013, 10:25:08 AM
Lawsuit over health care tax could kill ‘Obamacare’

The Washington Times
Sunday, March 31, 2013

" lawsuit making its way through the court system could pull the plug on the sweeping federal health care law.

A challenge filed by the Pacific Legal Foundation contends that the Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional because the bill originated in the Senate, not the House. Under the Origination Clause of the Constitution, all bills raising revenue must begin in the House.

The Supreme Court upheld most provisions of the act in June, but Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. took pains in the majority opinion to define Obamacare as a federal tax, not a mandate. That was when the Sacramento, Calif.-based foundation’s attorneys had their “aha” moment.

“The court there quite explicitly says, ‘This is not a law passed under the Commerce Clause; this is just a tax,’” foundation attorney Timothy Sandefur said at a Cato Institute forum on legal challenges to the health care act. “Well, then the Origination Clause ought to apply...
4992  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Scrappleface: Obama Declares April 1 ‘Fiscal Responsibility Day’ on: April 02, 2013, 10:03:41 AM
Humorist Scott Ott at Scrappleface reports:

Obama Declares April 1 ‘Fiscal Responsibility Day’

Obama signs National Fiscal Responsibility Day declarationPresident Obama declares April 1 ‘National Fiscal Responsibility Day’, as the infants and toddlers of Wall Street bankers crawl around his desk just out of the camera’s view.

In a White House ceremony this morning, surrounded by young children of Wall Street bankers, and of staffers at the Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, President Barack Obama signed an executive order designating today as ‘National Fiscal Responsibility Day.’

The president said the declaration would both “recognize the Herculean efforts of members of Congress and the Executive branch in paring down the federal budget to its core essentials...

Obama noted that from now on, the first day of April each year will “remind all Americans of the kind of government we ordained and established in our Constitution — one of limited, enumerated powers, that maximizes individual liberty.”...

[Too bad this is only an April Fools joke.]
4993  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Pathological Science: The declining confidence of climate sensitivity on: April 02, 2013, 09:55:21 AM
Locally I can report the lake is still frozen and that it was a high of 34 degrees for the outdoor baseball opener yesterday, sunny and 24 right now, April 2.  28 days of March were below historical averages at the high and at the low.

"OVER the past 15 years air temperatures at the Earth’s surface have been flat while greenhouse-gas emissions have continued to soar."

The question people (who didn't read the emails) are asking is - why are the climate models so wrong:

Looks like the 'deniers' had it right and the alarmists are the new deniers:

4994  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Venezuela, AP - Chavez was a religious figure? on: April 02, 2013, 09:32:25 AM
Looking forward to our first-hand reports.  This story is sickening.

Chavez's legacy gains religious glow in Venezuela
 Email this Story

Mar 30, 4:58 PM (ET)


(AP)In this March 8, 2013 file photo released by Miraflores Press Office, Venezuela's acting President Nicolas Maduro stands in front of a portrait of Venezuela's late President Hugo Chavez...

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Holding a Bible in her arms at the start of Holy Week, seamstress Maria Munoz waited patiently to visit the tomb of the man she considers another savior of humanity.

The 64-year-old said she had already turned her humble one-bedroom house into a shrine devoted to the late President Hugo Chavez, complete with busts, photos and coffee mugs bearing his image. Now, she said, her brother-in-law was looking for a larger house to display six boxes' worth of Chavez relics that her family has collected throughout his political career.

"He saved us from so many politicians who came before him," Munoz said as tears welled in her eyes. "He saved us from everything."

Chavez's die-hard followers considered him a living legend on a par with independence-era hero Simon Bolivar well before his March 5 death from cancer. In the mere three weeks since, however, Chavez has ascended to divine status in this deeply Catholic country as the government and Chavistas build a religious mythology around him ahead of April 14 elections to pick a new leader.

(AP) In this July 4, 2011 file photo, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez kisses a crucifix as he...

Chavez's hand-picked successor, Nicolas Maduro, has led the way, repeatedly calling the late president "the redeemer Christ of the Americas" and describing Chavistas, including himself, as "apostles."

Maduro went even further after Argentine Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio became Pope Francis earlier this month. Maduro said Chavez had advised Jesus Christ in heaven that it was time for a South American pope.

That comes as Maduro's government loops ads on state TV comparing Chavez to sainted heroes such as Bolivar and puts up countless banners around the capital emblazoned with Chavez's image and the message "From his hands sprouts the rain of life."

"President Chavez is in heaven," Maduro told a March 16 rally in the poor Caracas neighborhood of Catia. "I don't have any doubt that if any man who walked this earth did what was needed so that Christ the redeemer would give him a seat at his side, it was our redeemer liberator of the 21st century, the comandante Hugo Chavez."

Chavistas such as Munoz have filled Venezuela with murals, posters and other artwork showing Chavez in holy poses surrounded by crosses, rosary beads and other religious symbolism.

(AP) In this March 5, 2013 file photo, candles, placed by mourner demonstrators, burn in front of...

One poster on sale in downtown Caracas depicts Chavez holding a shining gold cross in his hands beside a quote from the Book of Joshua: "Comrade, be not afraid. Neither be dismayed, for I Will be with you each instant." The original scripture says "Lord thy God," and not "I," will accompany humanity each instant.

The late leader had encouraged such treatment as he built an elaborate cult of personality and mythologized his own rise to power, said Carolina Acosta-Alzuru, a University of Georgia media studies scholar who hails from Venezuela.

She said Chavez's successors are clearly hoping that pumping up that mythology can boost Maduro's presidential campaign, which has been based almost entirely on promises to continue Chavez's legacy. The opposition candidate, Gov. Henrique Capriles, counters that Maduro isn't Chavez, and highlights the problems that Chavez left behind such as soaring crime and inflation.

"They're fast-tracking the mythification," Acosta-Alzuru said of the government. "Sometimes I feel that Venezuelan politics has become a big church. Sometimes I feel it has become a big mausoleum."

Teacher Geraldine Escalona said she believed Chavez had served a divine purpose during his 58 years on earth, including launching free housing and education programs and pushing the cause of Latin American unity.

(AP) In this March 8, 2013 file photo, supporters of Nicolas Maduro watch on a giant screen...

"God used him for this, for unifying our country and Latin America," the 22-year-old said. "I saw him as a kind of God."

Such rhetoric has upset some religious leaders and drawn the reproach of Venezuela's top Roman Catholic official, Cardinal Jorge Urosa Savino, on the eve of the Easter holidays.

"One can't equate any hero or human leader or authority with Jesus Christ," Urosa warned. "We can't equate the supernatural and religious sphere with the natural, earthly and sociopolitical."

Chavez, in his days, crossed paths frequently with Venezuela's church, which sometimes accused the socialist leader of becoming increasingly authoritarian. Chavez described Christ as a socialist, and he strongly criticized Cardinal Urosa, saying he misled the Vatican with warnings that Venezuela was drifting toward dictatorship.

Emerging this week from a church on the outskirts of Caracas, Lizbeth Colmenares slammed politicians from both sides for using derogatory language in the campaign, particularly during Holy Week.

(AP) In this March 5, 2012 file photo, a mural imitating the religious painting The Last Supper covers a wall of a popular housing complex, showing from left to right, Fidel Castro, Ernesto 'Che' Guevara, Mao Tse-tung, Vladimir Lenin, Karl Marx, Jesus Christ, Simon Bolivar, Venezuelan rebel fighters Alexis Gonzalez and Fabricio Ojeda and Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez in Caracas, Venezuela...

"They are not following the words of Christ," said Colmenares, a 67-year old retiree who was holding palm fronds woven into the shape of the Holy Cross. "They should be more humble and they shouldn't be attacking each other that way."

Of course, politics and religion have long mixed in Latin America, starting with the Spanish conquest of the New World, which Mexican writer Carlos Fuentes famously said was carried out "between sword and cross."

In the 20th century, Argentine first lady Eva Peron helped start a leftist Latin American pantheon after her untimely death in 1952. She's since become a veritable saint for millions in her homeland, with pictures of her angelic face still commonly displayed in homes and government offices. Like Chavez, Peron was worshipped as a protector of the poor as well as a political fighter.

Chavez tied his own legacy to Bolivar, incessantly invoking his name and delivering hundreds of speeches with Bolivar's stern portrait looming over his shoulder. Chavez renamed the whole country "The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela" and ordered a giant mausoleum built to house Bolivar's bones.

A short animated spot shown repeatedly on state TV this month makes clear that Chavez has already become a political saint for millions. It shows Chavez, after death, walking the western Venezuelan plains of his childhood before coming across Peron, Bolivar, the martyred Chilean President Salvador Allende and Argentine revolutionary Ernesto "Che" Guevara, among others.

(AP) In this March 19, 2013 file photo, kiss marks left by supporters of Venezuela's former...

"We know that in Argentina we have a Peronism that is very much alive," said Acosta-Alzuru. "And there are other examples in Latin America where a leader, a caudillo, tries to be everything for the country. What Maduro and Chavez's followers are doing is trying to keep Chavez alive."

Some Chavez supporters waiting to visit his tomb on a hill overlooking Caracas said their comandante is with them in spirit - and for that reason they planned to vote for Maduro, confident that Chavez was guiding his hand.

Reaching the marble tomb means first walking through an exhibit celebrating Chavez's life and military career, with photos and text exalting a seemingly inevitable rise to immortality.

"He's still alive," said 52-year-old nurse Gisela Averdano. "He hasn't died. For me, he will always continue."
4995  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Sen. Paul proposes US leaving UN on: April 02, 2013, 09:22:58 AM

Bold move.  It shows that he has been reading the forum.  Since this is a budget matter, what we might do is agree to pay the UN whatever the average or median country pays for one seat, one vote.  Also move them out of NYC and into the heartland.

Meanwhile, Sec. Kerry still looking L.O.S.T.

4996  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Issues in the American Creed (Constitutional Law and related matters) on: April 02, 2013, 08:53:27 AM
"GM, I was answering question that Doug asked me about how my vote would go down if I were on the Court."

This is true and I am appreciative of all the responses.  Knowing we disagree, the best we can do is test out the arguments in both directions and see where they lead.  No pressure, but the Justices may be checking the forum before they decide.  I have lived to regret telling Justice Roberts that Obamacare is a tax.   wink

In tax law, the progressive rate system fails the equal protection test IMO, but is justifiable to others on a concept understood as 'equal protection, different circumstances'.  We don't apply the top rate to every dollar or every person; taxpayers have different circumstances.  If you were in that situation, that rate would apply to you too.   I can't take the depletion deduction of a gold mine because I don't own one.  Is that unfair?  The blind get an extra deduction.  I would have to poke both eyes out to qualify.  Probably easier for a gay to pretend to be hetero.  A gay can't find happiness in a one man one woman marriage but he or she is free to pursue happiness elsewhere and not receive that legislated benefit.  The majority of the 4 trillion dollar budget consists of checks sent to preferred recipients for one reason or another, and not me.  If I could not serve in the military because of condition in me from birth or genetics, should I still receive veterans' benefits?  I don't see how you logically pick at the edges of a government built on preferences without bringing down the whole system.
4997  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Cognitive Dissonance of His Glibness - Basketball is his main sport? on: April 01, 2013, 08:02:36 PM

He golfs with Tiger (what did that cost?) but can't swing a club, hangs with NBA legends but can't make a free throw (video above is pretty amazing), and he wants to run the economy but has still never read a book on economics that isn't about dismantling our system.  Just getting to know the guy - as our nation heads down the tubes.

If his story was that he is a lousy basketball player or golfer (honesty), I would be impressed.  If his story is that he works on improving our economy so much, that is why his former sporting prowess has suffered, i would say - what a crock.
4998  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Issues in the American Creed (Constitutional Law and related matters) on: April 01, 2013, 07:35:17 PM ignores the equal protection and contract clauses, which requires states to recognize contracts made in other states. DOMA does violate that.

States, I agree, could be required to honor the contract between spouse 1 and spouse 2 (formerly referred to as husband and wife) as they travel freely through a different  state or move there.  How does that change the contract between state 2 and individual 1 or 2 as it applies to taxes or anything else, if the marriage preference (or penalty) in that state is defined as applying only to one-man-one-woman-marriages?

Can one state legislature, or ten of them, change the definition of a federal tax benefit when DOMA so specifically lays out what in federal law is defined as qualifying for that preference?  

If the issue truly is equal protection, I still fail to see how adding one group or two to the preferred group remedies the equal protection violation.  No one to my awareness ever answers that.  

The tax code is filled with preferences for all kinds of reasons.  Encouraging households potentially capable of natural offspring to marry is about as rational of a basis as there can be if we are to accept any preference.  [Of course rational basis is out the window here.)  Must everyone get a credit for not planting wheat in their yard if any farmer gets that deduction?  Isn't almost every page of the 8000 page Federal Tax Code loaded with preferences toward individuals from named groups and discrimination against everyone else?

I get it that at least one Justice will see 'heightened scrutiny' applying to sexual orientation and other Justices will follow, but I don't see 'heightened scrutiny for sexual orientation' in the original text or meaning of the original words in the constitution.  Why didn't the Court strike down all marriage preferences when they first came out?  Obviously marriage as it was defined then was a hetero-phenonmenon, and it didn't even reach all heteros.  Was there no challenge on equal protection in the tax code until now or were the precedents from the past wrongly decided?

I favor all income from all people in all industries, earned legally, taxed the same, which would have solved most of this.  Estates are essentially an accumulation of after tax income.  Some other clause, takings, or cruel and unusual punishment ought to stop the legislating of theft of those privately held assets.

From GM's post:  "You cannot defend a new civil liberty, while denying it to others [the Polygamists]. I think there's a grander more magnificent trend that can see in the law and that is this right to be left alone," Turley said. "People have a right to establish their families as long as they don't harm others."

First of all, who is stopping them?

To my friends who innocently ask how gay marriage can possibly affect their marriage, resolving this contentious issue forcefully through the courts perhaps just ended their marriage in terms of every public policy recognition or preference as we knew it.  The acceptance of gay marriage coincided with the abandonment of conventional marriage.  The majority of all kids are now born out of wedlock and are thus empirically more likely to be poor and have other problems.  Meanwhile gay men and virgin lesbians are getting pregnant.  Mother and father are now federally called Parent One and Parent Two.  Equality and degradation of our greatest institutions are synonymous and within our reach.  All to achieve nothing that looks like equal protection under the law IMHO.
4999  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Issues in the American Creed (Constitutional Law and related matters) on: April 01, 2013, 02:58:58 PM
It isn't the right or privilege to marry that is in question, gays have always had that same right as heterosexuals (see Billie Jean King, Rock Hudson), it is the right to marry the person you love, who consents.
DOMA does not stop any state from performing or recognizing gay marriages or single out gay marriage apart from other permutations.  It is saying that the other states and the Feds don't have to recognize other unions from the states who do that as the same as a husband-wife marriage, which is defined as one of each gender.

Prop 8 also does not single out gay marriage either any more than does it excluded larger groups:
Sec. 7.5. "Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. "

In political language, the disadvantaged group is called LGBT, meaning not just gays but all Lesbians, Gays, Bi-sexuals, trans-sexuals.  Addressing the needs of the last group alone, transgender, would mean an end to all gender distinctions, as it is a changeable state.  Interestingly (to me), an end to all gender distinctions was written in the Equal Rights Amendment -  which the nation failed to ratify.  

Somewhere between about 2.5% and 3.4%(Gallup) of adults identify as gay, a significant political minority.  Presumably Bi-sexuals and Polygamists whose needs are more than one are not helped by a gay marriage ruling.  They are much smaller groups and even more vulnerable to discrimination by the majority.  They don't have political power, but how does that change the meaning of the words of the constitution?  After DOMA or Prop 8 is struck down, it is still constitutional to prohibit recognition of these multiple partner unions?  They still cannot marry whomever they love that will consent.   Why doen't that fail the same test of logic or scrutiny, treating individuals from different groups differently?

Singling out hetero-marraige(-hyphened) for public policy preference was electorally intentional, the opposite of a sin tax, to encourage certain behaviors for the general welfare.  Singling out gay couples to add to the special treatment class is still offering special treatment to members of selected groups at the exclusion of others.  It still draws a moral line in law, damaging for example the children with polygamist upbringings, to extrapolate the plaintiffs attorneys' logic.  It also leaves in discrimination against single people in tax and estate law, which is the majority of new parents, if child rearing was the concern.  Why not strike down everything to do with marriage, family or any other recognition used for preference?  Isn't that really what is in question?
5000  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Issues in the American Creed (Constitutional Law and related matters) on: March 31, 2013, 08:30:28 AM
Ah, yes.  The meaning of the words - to marry.

In the older dictionaries, pre-2013, non-hyphenated marriage meant some kind of ceremony where a man and a woman consent to become husband and wife.  Does DOMA or Prop 8 remove that right for anyone? No (IMO).  Must change the meaning of the privilege in order to deny it.  Opting out of that union is also a right.
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