CCP: I love the story about the Stanford trained statistician winning 4 million plus lotteries - "The odds of this has been calculated at one in eighteen septillion and luck like this could only come once every quadrillion years." I hate the lotteries and maybe this will disrupt some of the enthusiasm.
I can't remember what qudrillion and septinllion mean. I just remember S. Palin saying 'don't anyone tell Obama what comes after a trillion.' ---- Down down 634: Are people reading these pages this year still in stocks?
Dow up 50% during the early part of the Obama administration?
Things like inaugurations or New Years make lousy benchmarks. If that is the test, Democrats in reality took control of the domestic agenda Nov 2006 / Jan 2007. Result was the end of 50 months of growth, stagnation and collapse. Then they took the White House. I would assume that the selloff of 2008 was oversold. People sold everything and had to wait 30 days plus until charts started upward to buy back in, with capital gains paid at the old rate. I would guess this rise was over-bought. Dow companies like CocaCola and McDonalds have 75-80% of their business outside Obama's jurisdiction. Did these investors know they were buying into 0.4% growth? Did they know that 90% of Obama's job growth rate ended the day Obamacare was passed. Chart below. Obama is not done. This carnage is on his watch too. I would estimate approaching 10 trillion is losses just the last 2 market days.
"By the way, if you invested money in the stock market for the duration of the Bush eight years, you lost money. A lot."
Once again, a FLAWED analysis. The market crash started with NASDAQ March 2000, 6 monthsw before the election, 9 months before the name changed on the door. The downturn was going on no matter WHO was in power, until conditions and policies changed. The attacks of 9/11/2001 were planned and happening no matter whose watch, unless someone else would have prevented it. The recovery started the day policies changed, the 2003 tax rate reductions. The recovery ended the day the policy arrow changed with the Nov 2006 election. Why lump those those 3 distinct periods together and lose all meaning to the pretend analysis?
Instead, look for peak to trough or inflection points and look for causation. Track the results to policy changes implemented or expected rather than the nameplate on the door. I would love to see a comprehensive supply-side, pro-growth package passed and signed overnight tonight (impossible). New flat and simple tax code, regulation rollback, corporate tax rolled back, loopholes gone, cap and trade scrapped, Obamacare repealed, energy projects approved coast to coast, all pending trade agreements passed, states add capital gains preferences, reform all major entitlements . Obama can take credit. Chart THAT! We could have 8% growth tomorrow IMO if people really wanted to solve this.
Is he far enough out of power now that it is safe to say this...
Alan Greenspan is a buffoon. Intelligent on some level I'm sure but loaded with confusion, inconsistency and hypocrisy.
He was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Ford, a distinction I would leave off my resume if I were him. He was chosen Fed Chair by President Reagan in June 1987 (first sign of Alzheimer's?) for credibility in the markets because he was a (so-called) Republican opponent of Reaganomics and therefore an intentional check and balance on our tax and fiscal policies. He was considered to be from the root canal wing of the Republican party, cut spending growth but don't do anything radical to grow the economy. Had he wrote Reagan's policies, we would still be in the Carter years. His speeches were open jokes on the market, inventing his own language so no one would know what he was saying.
We had expansionary policies following the crashes starting in March 2000 and following the financial and economic crises following 9/11/2001. Why did we still have expansionary monetary policies as we were approaching 50 consecutive months of job growth /economic growth? Obviously the excesses of his time led to the 'irrational exuberance' of housing, the fall of which is still haunting us.
In his memoirs he criticizes Bush and Cheney for the excesses in spending. That makes sense. Why wasn't he screaming bloody murder about it THEN, while it was happening, when he had his own bully pulpit?
I can't tell if you are disagreeing with my characterization or his policy.
I took that from the SSA life expectancy page;the majority of workers were men at that time. I'm sure there are plenty of other ways to look at it, like yesterday's revelation that oral surgeons clean teeth. Life expectancy of your teeth, BTW, in the 1930s was less than 58 years. Do you disagree with the 1% tax too? Is there any difference in terms of productive disincentives between that (1%) and now, a self employment tax of 15.3% ? http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/article/0,,id=98846,00.html When you are done quibbling, the point remains that we are nowhere near the insure-against-outliving-your-ability-to-work vision that FDR first articulated. People retire very often early, healthy and generally far wealthier than the younger workers who labor to help support them, instead of investing in their own challenges and opportunities. It is a Ponzi scheme, not a lockbox, an insurance policy, or a savings plan.
Life Expectancy for Social Security
If we look at life expectancy statistics from the 1930s we might come to the conclusion that the Social Security program was designed in such a way that people would work for many years paying in taxes, but would not live long enough to collect benefits. Life expectancy at birth in 1930 was indeed only 58 for men and 62 for women, and the retirement age was 65. http://www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html
Federal taxes of 1794 would be great. How about a return to the fundamentals that FDR started with social security, a 1% old age insurance tax with the payout age set 7 years beyond worker life expectancy. These days he would be called a tea party terrorist, though he was far more extreme.
One of the articles on that story says the cellphone would be 3 pounds without the use of so-called rare earth elements. Why don't we have people carry those for a couple of days until they tell the oppressionists in Washington, loudly and clearly, that we need to open this country for business, and that necessarily includes mining, drilling, processing and manufacturing - or someone else (like China) will.
I can only think of what Dean Wormer said to Flounder in Animal House: "Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." What is the matter with our globally competitive, strategic economic team?? Terms like deaf, dumb and blind aren't fair to people who really suffer those afflictions.
How do you handle the stress, as Commander in Chief, of identifying Navy Seal Team Six as the group who "got him" [bin Laden] only to have them shot down over an enemy territory within just a few months, worst loss in 10 years in Afghanistan, that he has already announced abandoning?
How do you respond to the worst financial slap in our history, to have S&P Frriday after market closing downgrading the United States of America, for the first time in our history, leaving 18 countries with higher ratings, and planning to downgrade us further if you continues on the same course?
What is your next course of action, if you are President, on both fronts, not to mention jobs? He must be swamped in advisory or deep in his own thought, brainstorming for solutions and direction. Maybe even praying for wisdom and solutions to come to him in church?
Nope, he's commanding his SUV motorcade over to the golf course today. Followed by a beer and cheeseburger. It's Sunday and he's the leader of the free world and he will do what he wants, whenever he wants. Crisis? What Crisis?
Right now, saving bogey is more important than any economic or military setback. Those can be led from behind. The golf ball just sits there on the tee until you take a swing at it. Good luck America.
Said to be 'huge', this discovery could break China's lock on rare earth elements, the minerals required for basic technology manufacturing of our time. (If only the Obama EPA will allow them to mine there.)
JDN, I will try to split my answer, libertarian issue here and the rest over on health care politics.
GM put it succinctly (as he does), "If I'm paying, I have a say in your behavior".
I don't care if you don't care (but you are certainly entitled to that opinion) that you might lose your freedom or preferred recreation because I care about mine and I know plenty here care about the right to fight which would most certainly be among the first to go.
If you can ride Dukatis for recreation, not exactly third world poverty behavior, you certainly should not need someone else to be picking up your basic living expenses, healthcare, so you you don't have to dip into your own resources.
No intent to hit while you are down, but theoretically your choice of riding superbikes at higher speeds on mountain roads, in a nanny state system, jeopardizes my right to putz around carefully at 80 mpg on my Honda 200. Soon they will all be prohibited. Or they will limit you to what mine is and that is a different sport, likely of no interest to a Dukati enthusiast. You are perhaps willing to lose what you have. I am not.
Your right to your pursuit without harming others and my right to not pay for it are both clearly enumerated in the 9th amendment IMO.
"I choose to smoke cigars and ride motorcycles, someone else may choose to eat too much fatty food, etc. still there is not a 100% direct cause and effect. In many/most health issues a direct cause and effect cannot be found."
Government prohibitions and regulations and penalties have been issued with far less certain causation than those examples.
Let's take one of my summer favorites, waterskiing, passed down in our family through at least 4 generations. I remember my grandfather skied on one ski on his 70th birthday and my mother into her 80s, while my award winning daughter just got her first successful one-ski ride at 17, last weekend. Others pull hamstrings and fill up chiropractic wards with their pulls and twists. It burns fossil fuels. Why is that necessary - in some Washington bureaucratic view - it isn't! Banned. Dessert - banned. How would you like your shrimp cooked, battered with french fries, just kidding, we'll tell you how your food will be prepared. Whoops, shrimp was banned too. It just isn't necessary. Even lean beef is inefficient and oatmeal is on the latest list of foods to not advertise to children. There is no end when the alleged consequence is a public expense.
"My grandfather was a small town surgeon near Milwaukee, albeit he was quite famous in WI. If you were rich, my grandfather charged you top dollar, if you were poor my grandfather would take vegetables or whatever as payment. He never turned anyone away."
My grandfather and father were dentists serving the downtown community including some of its most famous citizens like our current govenor in his childhood, charged low, fair rates that no one ever questioned, worked long weeks and long hours well into their 80s because they loved what they did and serving people and did not charge people extra or give better service for being rich. Good grief.
GM wrote: Yeah, it's funny how a free market can make products and services cheaper for everyone to access but somehow that can't be used for healthcare.
Yes, that was a point a tried to make with a highly educated liberal relative recently. She was arguing that single payer is the most efficient system and I kept answering with the question: "for everything?" No, only healthcare because that was all she had looked into, but has someone looked into the most efficient and effective ways to allocate scarce resources if they look at one failed example. What about housing? I see areas here where the average price has adjusted from $3 million to $2 million. At either level, the price is astronomical and the product exceedingly complex and extravagant because that is exactly what people are wanting and able to afford. Those prices in a free market continuously adjust so that is true under changing cicumstances and the product built adjusts too - if left alone to adjust. In healthcare, not so.
JDN wrote: "Do you know what cancer costs? Or a heart attack? Even just a "routine" visit to the emergency room is $1000's of dollars, Etc.
Yes. Do you know why??
I put it in a previous reply: "If we paid our own medical bills (for the most part), the cost levels set by providers would be limited to what people could generally afford and were willing to pay (imagine that!), not what an entity with the power to print money could possibly spend."
That does not mean there won't be a safety net for the needy, there already is. It means as you expand that to include routine care for ordinary income Americans, the entire system with the only known, effective force for cost control is gone. That can't happen! Look at Europe! Yeah, look at Europe.
The welfare state like Scandinavia or even Japan relied on a culture of homogeneous people all possessing an unending work ethic and not interested in taking advantage of the system, where the safety net goes only to the truly needy no matter what are the rules. Hardly a description of Europe today, or the US.
Or maybe we should pay our own medical bills and then take personal responsibility for our individual choices.
And if we paid our own medical bills, the cost levels set by providers would be limited to what people could generally afford and were willing to pay (imagine that!), not what an entity with the power to print money could possibly spend.
... Sec. GEITHNER: Well, recovery is going to work for Americans requires a recovery led by the private sector, requires recovery led by private demand that's going to be strong enough to be sustainable. And that means that you're going to have to still make sure there's enough support to reinforce that process of recovery. But when we have growth back in place, we also got to bring down those long-term deficits, make sure we go back to living within our means. And that's like the difficulty--that's the--that's the difficult balance to get right. But I think we're going to get that right. We're not going to make the mistake many countries made in the past of putting the brakes on too early and creating risk that we have a, you know, weaker recovery with even higher levels of unemployment going forward. ... Sec. GEITHNER: Stimulus has been remarkably effective, and the combined effect of stimulus, as it was designed and the efforts we took to stabilize the financial system, bring capital and private capital in, have been remarkably effective in arresting the freefall in economic growth we saw here and around the world and laying the foundation for growth. Now, you're seeing growth now for the first time, really, in almost two years. And that's a very encouraging sign. But it's very early still, and again, our job is to make sure that we're encouraging that process. And recovery act was designed so it's going to provide support over a two-year period of time, and you're just now starting to see--probably in the summer you started for the first time to see money start to flow and projects start to get financed. But a key part of stimulus was tax cuts to businesses and families and support to state and local governments, and those things had very immediate, very powerful effect. ... BARTIROMO: So do we need a second stimulus? ... BARTIROMO: A good case for a second stimulus?
A family man with a wife, 2 small children and a dog named BO wouldn't want to spend this special birthday during August recess with his family, when the opportunity presents itself to sell tickets to big donors for big money. ------------------------
Here a clip you just might hear during the campaign:
Today Show with Matt Lauer Feb 1 2009 (with Gallup approval rating at 66%):
“Look, I’m at the start of my administration. One nice thing about the situation I find myself in is that I will be held accountable. You know, I’ve got four years,” Obama told The Today Show’s Matt Lauer on February 1, 2009.
“A year from now I think people are going to see that we’re starting to make some progress,” said Obama. ”But there’s still going to be some pain out there. If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.”
I don't suppose anyone, anywhere is following this, but there is a campaign going on right now that is the preview to the 2012 House, Senate and Presidential campaign and election. It is very, very ugly. The money being spent is unbelievable and the message on both sides is 100% negative: Moore means More Taxes and Harsdorf is backing [Gov.]Scott Walker's agenda every step of the way.
In the case of one western Wisconsin legislative district, they have to pay for the entire 3 million person Twin Cities (MN - wrong state) media market in order to reach their own district with television and radio ads, and they are nearly continuous on every channel - in August. New records for spending, they are spending more in one state senate district than was spent statewide in a real election a short time ago, and (believe it or not) the money is not all local: http://www.workdayminnesota.org/index.php?news_6_4951 The Minnesota AFL-CIO will run buses of union volunteers into the district Aug. 8 and 9, assisting get-out-the-vote efforts on Moore’s behalf. And the Minnesota State Council of the Service Employees International Union already is operating phone banks out of its St. Paul headquarters.
Who knows what the outcome will mean for having a special election at such a strange time.
"I think it's better if the government stays out of it."
But they can only do that if it is your responsibility, meaning all the consequences of your actions.
Some nanny state laws are good in their effect and result, like seat belts, but then how do we stop there and not end the other things mentioned. I forget my seat belt sometimes and find myself reaching for it every time I see law enforcement. I rode with my youthful 87 year old dad driving the other day. Just a short drive but I got in and buckled up. He saw that and stopped to do his. One sibling of mine has been harping on him to do that. Hard to change old habits and the law gives people an excuse to say - just do it, but that is in the context that everything relating to driving is regulated. Everything related to living is not regulated or at least shouldn't be.
Our state was first I think to enact smoking bans, with a mixed effect on liberty. Then we repealed the helmet law. A gain I suppose for liberty, but I can't imagine getting on a motorcycle without a helmet so it seems like a lousy symbol for liberty. Still they require eye protection and I'm sure we have both been hit with bugs in the glasses enough to know why.
True libertarianism would oppose all these restrictions and true liberalism of today (fascism) would put an end to nearly all personal choice and responsibility. It seems to me we could have a very few, very carefully considered laws and restrictions without going hogwild but experience seems to prove that I am wrong.
Slow, gradual escalation, with full respect for the power of what you are considering, culminating in marriage is better than an entitlement, instant gratification mentality.
Does anyone know what Judaism, Christianity (and the other great religions) say specifically about it.
Crafty, I appreciate the dilemma you are presenting with young people delaying marriage longer and longer and many couples not marrying at all, but what are you saying is the answer? What will you say to your son and daughter?
May I state unequivocally that, moral issues aside, one or the other partner saying they are using birth control is not foolproof, and that moral issues aside, single uncommitted people having babies is not the same thing as having a mother and a father under one roof in a committed attempt at a lifelong relationship.
Also an observation, if the responsible people are having fewer children and the irresponsible are having more, that is not a healthy dynamic for our civilization.
"I didn't go to law school, but the answer is simple; one is legal on is not."
The point of libertarian issues is to dare to question what should or should not be law, not just blind support fro whatever they are.
When you expand the public role in maintaining our health, you cause the erosion of the liberty to do things considered risky. Motorcycling, stickfighting and putting penises where they weren't designed to go. Is driving a car today without a seatbelt more dangerous than riding a motorcycle? One is legal, one is not (in 49 states). That can change.
Can't have it both ways. If you are the risk manager of you, then you decide. If the Sec. of Heath is in charge, then she decides. You might not like the next czar's decisions.
"I'm not really comfortable with that last line at all."
The odds that a 50-50 committee will do the right thing is not better than 50-50.
Yes, the wrong 'solution' exacerbates the problem. You can't raise taxes in a recession, but you also can't say, as we do now, that we will raise them the instant we are out of the recession either. It has the same destructive effect without capturing any additional revenue.
The only thing I can think of to head off the wrong answer out of committee is to take offense with the public before they act, instead of playing defense after.
The serious, leading Pres. candidates need to shift from saying in 2011 what they would do as President in 2013 to being the leaders of the opposition party now, and call loudly and persuasively for a specific list of actions now. Call on the House and Senate, in response to the downgrade, to finish the job in September that could not be completed before the August 4 birthday deadline. The save the nation later plan is not capturing anyone's imagination or attention whatsoever.
If your house is on fire now (Marco Rubio's analogy is that you save the whole house), the discussion about what to do after it is just ashes smoldering seems rather academic.
"She has kept her job and her insurance (great boss) but now they are thinking of laying her off as well as other employees. It's the times."
She has coverage because she of the job (private sector inferred). They are laying off employees because of the economy. Number one cause of the continued bad economy with almost no new hiring: healthcare reform with non-existent cost savings, along with two dozen new tax increases, new regulations, penalties and heavy burdens on employers.
JDN: "With her pre-existing condition no one will offer coverage at any price." Crafty: "IMHO the matter of people getting kicked out of their insurance due e.g. to a job loss and while having what then becomes a pre-existing condition is a genuine problem."
Pre-existing condition - instantly - was one of the planks offered in the Republican alternatives and turned down by the ObamaPelosi-ites. It is a feature of Obamacare but implementation was delayed I believe to 2014. IT DID NOT HAVE TO BE THAT WAY. That was solvable in 2009 but they wanted the whole enchilada, not compromise or even a single Republican vote. If Obamacare did not utilize financial deception to pass, the good features would be law now.
JDN, I'm glad you are okay. That said...
By your own description, you were a) on a motorcycle, and b) going too fast. (Did I read that right?) Those are two risks that someone else might not want to pay for, and will be likely be freedoms you would lose as we shift the financial consequences to others... or it could void your warranty.
You were burning fossil fuels for the enjoyment. (?) I'm surprised that freedom wasn't already taken the day Al Franken took the 60th vote in the Senate. So many potential prohibitions. So little time.
'Base plan' means disparity and arguing the unfairness to eternity. Probably a better way than Obamacare to get to full coverage, single payer.
Base plan will however include everything controversial, abortion, birth control, sex change operations, smoker, motorcycle, sky dive coverage. Anything less will be unfair. French fries and stick fighting might be the only exclusions?
We already, at least in our state, have full coverage for the financially challenged. We are talking about a middle class entitlement. Paid for by whom?
You were going to be treated, like it or not, in this case. We are only talking about who pays for it.
"My father has Medicare; he loves it. He also has a great, albeit expensive supplemental plan ($800.00 month) that covers everything else in the world that Medicare doesn't that Dad pays for himself. He's happy. I just want the same choice."
a) You will be there soon. b) Medicare is bankrupt. Let's expand it.
"Why not have a base government plan covering everyone"
Third party pay for millions is already the reason why costs for the rest of us are OUTRAGEOUS.
Healthcare was mostly affordable back when most service was fee for service. That was when prices had to match affordability.
"then the fire trucks showed up; 5 of them. I guess it was a boring day."
Would that happen in the private sector?
"Flipped, hit my head and slid"
Hope you mean - hit my helmet.
"3 have died on bikes on this road in the last 3 weeks"
"Is the John Birch society a bad thing, and if so, how? (From a Conservative- Libertarian frame of mind)"
I don't know exactly when or where they went too far to be so widely discredited. As we are all (conservatives-libertarians) constantly accused of being extremists, it is important to not be unnecessarily guilty of it - in order to influence swing voters and win elections.
Looking through wikipedia and a few articles I find that the main core beliefs mostly match conservatism, but there are a number of planks of John Birchers that I disagree with. I see they had quite a feud with the Wm F Buckley types of conservatism in their time - and lost. The main point I think would be to not go back now and re-fight those fights. More constructive IMHO would be to join forces with the best of the new groups and keep them focused on the right issues and right solutions.
It turns out fresh peas are high in fiber, iron, magnesium, potassium, and Vitamin A, B6, and C.
But if you are allergic or are fighting hypermagnesemia, the answer with an all-powerful central government is still eat your peas. If a new federal minimum wage law does more harm than good in an isolated village somewhere in America, the answer is fire everyone working below the new minimum wage. If 26 states don't want Obamacare, their answer is Obamacare. If your kidney, heart or diabetic condition could be eased with raw milk (http://www.realmilk.com/milkcure.html) or some new drug bogged down in the FDA bureaucracy, the answer is... tough luck. Government knows best and you just don't realize that how good coercion can be for you.
The reason that a producer can't sell or even consume a raw food product on their own property, if prohibited by federal law, is because they are engaging in interstate commerce.
The police state accusation IMO is not of the police tasked with enforcement, but a tyranny of the majority - tyranny of the do-gooders, enabled by some bizarre court rulings over the years where government over time seems to no longer have meaningful limits.
Report: Obama Administration Added $9.5 Billion in Red Tape in July
Many House and Senate conservatives are reviving their battle against federal regulations, claiming that the president hasn't stopped issuing job-killing rules during the debt ceiling fight. "While Washington and Americans have been focused on the debt ceiling, the Obama administration has continued to roll out more crushing red tape," said a spokesperson for Wyoming Republican Sen. John Barrasso, who's been championing the regulation fight.
At Tuesday's GOP Senate caucus lunch, the lawmakers said that they will renew their efforts, supported by business groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. In a memo Barasso handed out to the lawmakers, he claimed that the administration in July only has put in $9.5 billion in new regulatory costs by proposing 229 new rules and finalizing 379 rules. Among those he cited were EPA, healthcare reform, and financial regulatory reform rules.
The country's debt situation in real terms actually got worse this week under the continuing anchor of Obamanomics. Debt is measured in dollars but most judged as a percentage of income. Because of sudden new borrowings and the economic growth downgrades and the past economic results downgrades, total debt now exceeds total GDP of the US economy for the first time since 1947 according to US Treasury figures:
US debt shot up $238 billion to reach 100 percent of gross domestic project after the government's debt ceiling was lifted, Treasury figures showed Wednesday.
Treasury borrowing jumped Tuesday, the data showed, immediately after President Barack Obama signed into law an increase in the debt ceiling as the country's spending commitments reached a breaking point and it threatened to default on its debt.
The new borrowing took total public debt to $14.58 trillion, over end-2010 GDP of $14.53 trillion, and putting it in a league with highly indebted countries like Italy and Belgium.
Public debt subject to the official debt limit -- a slightly tighter definition -- was $14.53 trillion as of the end of Tuesday, rising from the previous official cap of $14.29 trillion a day earlier.
Treasury had used extraordinary measures to hold under the $14.29 trillion cap since reaching it on May 16, while politicians battled over it and over addressing the country's bloating deficit.
The official limit was hiked $400 billion on Tuesday and will be increased in stages over the next 18 months.
The last time US debt topped the size of its annual economy was in 1947 just after World War II.
In the US we suffer from a continuing devaluation of our weakened currency. Elsewhere they are suffering from currencies that are too strong. Both scenarios cause other economic problems, as does the volatility and uncertainty.
Japan follows Switzerland by weakening currency Japan has intervened to halt the rise of its currency aganist the dollar, to protect its own economy as investors piled into the yen as a safe haven on heightened fears about growth in the US and Europe.
CW, GM has a rather indelicate way of saying you have posted a rather large number of unsubstantiated things in a short period of time without any attempt to answer requests to back them up. That is not a discussion and it doesn't afford the reader any opportunity to learn from the point made. You took a cheap shot at my profession that I let go by: http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=1847.msg52185#msg52185 "You know that the majority of land lords would turn their places into wrecks so that their tenants wouldn't have a better place to go." What a bunch of BS. More than 30 years of personal experience and I have seen thousands and thousands of examples of damage to property and never have I seen rental property done intentionally by a landlord, yet you say it is a "majority" turning their place into a wreck. Running out of water? Did you post ANYTHING that says we have one drop less water on earth today than one year ago or one thousand years ago? In the midwest we are swimming in too much water, highest on record in many places. Can't send it any faster downstream because they are still flooded there. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/31/us/31flood.html?scp=1&sq=dakota%20dunes%20flood&st=cse People choosing to live away from water is not running out of water. The USA attacked itself on 9/11/01? Sure. The host/moderator tried to answer you politely and indirectly on that and you missed it. You attack GM's profession, law enforcement, he asked you to back it up. Here you support (If I read you correctly) teaching parenting arrangements other than a mom and a dad as equal or better than the way it was primarily done since creation without posting a smidgen of evidence to support your view. The requests to back up what you post over time, when you ignore them, might start to look like ridicule.
I have posted unsupported arguments with glaring weaknesses on this board and had them quickly pointed out to me. That is one thing I like about this format.
CCP wrote: Doug any inside word on Pawlenty? His polls numbers are not improving yet. He needs more debate Iowa exposure I guess. ------------- CCP, no inside word. I have too busy and he has been too broke for me to tell him that I want to be a highly paid consultant to the campaign. If he is reading the forum, he can get that offer here.
A good article I will attach at the end here that says he is getting good endorsements in Florida including an incoming speaker of the Florida house? Isn't that Marco Rubio's old job? Only half joking, once he announces his running mate is Marco Rubio I think he will do just fine nationwide.
Yes he needs to bump the poll numbers up nationwide and especially in the states where he is spending his time and like all of them, he needs to raise money. I see he is 3rd now in Iowa, to Romney and Bachmann. Bachmann is running there as being from there, not just from a neighboring state. My take is that she will fizzle at some point but that could be after the straw poll. There is a debate coming up before the straw poll and I don't think Pawlenty will be holding his punches this next time, after the beating he took in NH for giving Obamneycare a pass. He moved his comparisons over to Bachmann once she was the star of the moment. The argument was very similar views, plus experience, accomplishments and competence.
The word is out especially to people who never heard him or met him that he is the most boring person imaginable. That actually can be good to keep expectations low and then surpass them. Those reviews don't match what Rush L said after the first debate that Pawlenty looked 'Presidential'. Besides his influence, he has a pretty good eye and ear for conservative politics. I think people also are hitting a wall with the current candidates/other candidates so they keep looking again to see if they missed the one. That phenomenon could however help Rick Perry instead of Pawlenty if he doesn't make his move soon.
My current feeling is that Romney has become a bit irrelevant, though still leading, and that Rick Perry will be the next sensation, but who knows. Even then, I think it is important to have an experienced former two term governor ready with competence and good positions on issues in second or third place that you can turn to if needed because we all know what happened to ... John Edwards, Spiro Agnew, Gary Hart, Howard Dean, Mike Huckabee, Pat Buchanan, Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, Dick Gephart, Michael Dukakis, John McCain, George Bush, Dick Cheney, George Romney, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Rep. Jefferson, David Wu, Anthony Weiner, etc. Politicians can lose their shine. -------------- (There is a 2 minute coffee shop stump talk at the link. He is running against Barack Obama, not Romney, Bachmann etc.)
Underdog Tim Pawlenty drawing strong Republican support in Florida
By Adam C. Smith, (Tampa) Times Political Editor In Print: Wednesday, August 3, 2011
TAMPA — The vast majority of Floridians couldn't pick Tim Pawlenty out of a lineup. He barely registers in the polls. And there's a decent chance he'll have to quit the presidential race soon if he continues to show little momentum in Iowa.
And yet something curious is happening in Florida: Influential Republican leaders continue to line up behind the former Minnesota governor, even with little evidence he's a viable contender.
"I don't know or care if he's got a 5 percent chance or a 50 percent chance or an 80 percent chance, what matters right now is we need people who stand up for what they believe in,'' said state Rep. Richard Corcoran of New Port Richey, a Pawlenty supporter in line to be speaker of the Florida House.
Another future House speaker, former Mitt Romney supporter Chris Dorworth of Lake Mary, likened it to PC users who are satisfied with their computers and Apple users who are ardent about theirs.
"Other people support their candidate, but Tim Pawlenty people are passionate about him," Dorworth said before a Pawlenty fundraising lunch that drew about 40 people to Tampa's InterContinental hotel Tuesday.
The campaign stop was only part of a busy political week in Tampa, which, starting today, hosts the Republican National Committee's summer meeting. More than 200 people will be in town checking out the site of the 2012 Republican National Convention.
Florida is expected to have one of the earliest presidential primary contests, and on a fundraising swing that took Pawlenty, 50, through Orlando Monday evening and Tampa and Miami on Tuesday, he made clear Florida is a key part of his strategy to win the nomination.
"We're looking forward to having a robust campaign in Florida. I think we've got the earliest and best and most prominent team of political leaders, volunteer leaders in this state," he said in an exclusive interview with the St. Petersburg Times and Bay News 9 airing Sunday on Political Connections.
Pawlenty, who also schmoozed with GOP activists at the Buddy Brew coffee shop in Tampa, said he expects to compete in a potentially crucial Florida GOP "Presidency 5" straw poll in September.
But Iowa is do or die for Pawlenty, and by his own admission his campaign can't afford a weak showing in an Aug. 13 "straw poll" — a symbolic, but nonbinding vote by party activists — in Ames, Iowa. A poor showing could take him out before Florida's poll even occurs.
Angling to be the main Republican alternative to Romney, the low-key Pawlenty has brought on board top Republican consultants nationally and in early primary states, but so far he has been overshadowed by U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, a fellow Minnesotan, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, a potential candidate. Most Iowa polls show Pawlenty mired in single digits well behind Bachmann and Romney.
"Every month there's the flavor of the month where somebody's thinking about running, not running, gets in, doesn't get in,'' Pawlenty said, suggesting that ultimately people will focus on people's records. He was particularly skeptical of Bachmann's staying power.
"The last thing we want is another person in that office who wasn't prepared for that office, doesn't have executive experience and, with all due respect to congresswoman Bachmann, her record of results in Congress is nonexistent," he said.
Pawlenty supporters see a person with a blue-collar background, strong faith and a record of cutting government even in Democratic-leaning Minnesota.
"When I spend time with Gov. Pawlenty, I get a comfort in his leadership style, I get comfort in his conservative philosophy, and I get comfort in his ability to beat the president,'' said state Rep. Will Weatherford of Wesley Chapel, another future state House speaker and former Romney backer.
Endorsements don't necessarily translate to votes. But they can provide credibility in a primary dominated by hard-core Republicans.
Romney has an extensive fundraising network in Florida where he campaigned hard in 2008, but Pawlenty has been winning over a new generation of under-40 Republican fundraisers and political leaders, some of whom have the opportunity to be on the ground floor of a top presidential campaign rather than a late-comer to Romney. As of June 30, Pawlenty had about $2 million on hand, compared to nearly $13 million for Romney, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
"I don't necessarily have anything to gain by getting on board," said 28-year-old state Rep. James Grant, R-Tampa, "but maybe we can build momentum by showing we have a team here in Florida and show the people that trusted us to be leaders in this state that we're willing to stick our neck out for somebody we believe is a true leader."
I consider myself quite accomplished in the field of bungled analogies, but President Obama telling the nation, or was it just the rich, to eat peas will go down sadly as the most memorable moment of this lousy episode that we just survived of our nation's great history.
A degree from Columbia and a degree from Harvard, he came from the very best private schools in Hawaii, he served in the State Senate of Illinois and then in the world's greatest deliberative body - the United States Senate, and the best he could do to characterize the incentive/disincentive effects of raising tax rates on the producers and job creators in the private sector of a dynamic, competitive, global, capital investment based productive economy is ... ... "eat your peas"??
We may think Carter was the bungler with his malaise speech and his gas rationing lines, but people should recall that the Republican economic wisdom of those years wasn't a whole lot better. President Ford thought the answer to spiraling inflation was a PR campaign called "Whip Inflation Now", as if merchants foregoing a price increase and workers turning down a wage increase was the cure for inflation or the path to prosperity. That was only a little better than his predecessor, President Nixon, who in a Stalinist moment decided to implement a nationwide "price, wage, freeze" and form a committee, in advance of the Obamacare waiver committee, to review any emergency exceptions to our national price fixing program that may be necessary.
Reagan slashes tax rates and revenues double in a decade. Volcker gets control over the money supply and the dollar stabilizes. Clinton and Gingrich end welfare as we know it, pass Reagan's hemisphere-wide free trade and slashed the rate of taxation on gains from long term capital investments and the economy surged to the point of a briefly, unheard of, balanced budget!
The Bush economy surged 50 months only after growth policies finally kicked in and retreated after the ending to growth policies was electorally certain.
Then along comes President Obama. Program after Keynesian program has failed, from 'Cash for Clunkers' to Shovel Ready Projects' to the tune of a trillion and half 'fiscal stimulus' per year and with new debt at the permanent rate of borrowing an amazing $4 billion a day. All of it making things worse. Why? Because the problem in the first place was not that the public sector had gotten too small!
So what is this President's last flailing? Eat your peas.
Excuse me but where is the evidence to support the idea that higher tax rates are good for us? History seems to say otherwise. Aren't boiled and canned peas about the least nutritious of all the green vegetables, besides still being bland even with all the added salt?
Lastly Mr. President, with all due respect, we are adults now and you are not our parent. The vegetables will be of OUR choosing and we might even decide to have a little ice cream later - without asking.
A question was posed here a while back about how to reach more people and younger people with an awareness and explanation of what is happening in this country and an idea of what needs to be done to get back on track. Clarity, articulation and visualization always seems to be lacking. Powerline Blog and Freedom Club responded to the DBMA challenge by offering a $100,000 prize for the best creative depiction of our spending and debt problems. Monday they announced the winner.
John Hinderacker: “Squirrels,” as we call it informally, is a beautiful piece of work. (View it on YouTube in HD here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AgL-I3PxHE&hd=1) We asked Justin to share his thoughts on the contest and his video:
Justin Folk: "When I first heard of the contest, I found it hard to believe that anyone would put up such a great prize to offer creatives a chance to dramatize the debt crisis. Most people don’t want to think about debt or the dangers it holds. Wars and environmentalism have attracted most of the attention of creative people in our culture–and not usually for a good result. But when you consider what debt can do and has done to nations throughout history, we’d be fools to not recognize our country’s solvency as the single greatest issue we face today. In my piece, I wanted to not just show how bad the problem is- which is in itself a noble effort since 15 trillion is hard for most to comprehend–but I sought to convey how we got to this point, and our choices moving forward.
I feel the squirrel allegory allows people to absorb the story unguarded, not pointing fingers at any one political party. I wanted to reach independents, conservatives, and liberals. Our debt, after all, belongs to all of us.
I’m grateful that Power Line and the Freedom Club saw the need to summon creative minds on this issue, and honored to have been picked as the winning entry."
Rand Paul: "This plan never balances. The President called for a “balanced approach. But the American people are calling for a balanced budget."
Yes and no. This bipartisan farce passed easily at the end because the people really are not calling for an immediate balance to the budget which would effectively be a 43% across the board cut in spending.
Also, most of these 'cuts' are unnamed, hence the power of the 'super'committee.
So we passed the most pretend cuts that we can with this cast of characters. The next step is to grow the economy and keep the President on the defensive - too busy to propose or sell another round of faux-stimuli.
Oct, 2010. Here is a Nov.11, 2010 NYT op-ed by Kaplan from that time: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/12/opinion/12kaplan.html "Indonesia’s Muslim democracy, a dozen years after the fall of Suharto, boasts vigor and moderation. And combined with Indonesia’s immense population, it augurs the emergence of a sort of “second India” in the Eurasian rimland, strategically located on the Strait of Malacca, the shipping superhighway between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Since the art of preparing for a multipolar world in military as well as economic terms is to gain the support of like-minded others, the Obama administration needs to use the energy generated by the president’s visit in order to adopt Indonesia as its new favorite country, just as India was adopted by the George W. Bush administration to substantial effect. " ... "THE 20th century saw great, land-centric Army deployments to Europe. George W. Bush unwittingly continued this tendency with great, land-centric deployments to the Middle East, where we became ensnared in intra-Islamic conflict. As President Obama develops his grand strategy for Eurasia, the great step forward would be creating a smaller footprint on land and a bigger one at sea. Navies are very conducive to projecting soft power: they make port visits and guard the global commons, whereas armies invade. "
"what are investors going to wait for before they start placing bets again?"
Across the board, pro-growth economic policies, which means yes, 'Obama's defeat' with a mandate to do something positive, also giving Harry Reid a new 'minority leader' title, repealing Obama care, a lightening of quadruple taxation on businesses, a stable dollar policy, a regulatory environment conducive to manufacturing, hiring and building, an energy policy committed to power us with what we know up until we invent a cleaner, safer, cheaper form of sufficient energy, and a public sector scaled back (really) to a size that can be pulled by our private economic engine. Removing the cloud of certainty/uncertainty that something worse from the government is coming at you just down the pike.
If we survived this, I think any serious movement on ALL of those fronts would trigger an economic re-birth.
My point was that I don't like defining down concepts like torture. Water tricks in extreme, isolated situations, underwear photos gone bad, and sleep schedule changes are not comparable to gradual electrocutions or eyes gouged out. We are not morally equal to those who maximize the number of innocent casualties and kill themselves. And we did not plan or participate in the most gruesome attack ever against us - and keep it all a secret for 10 years. That doesn't make any sense. ----
Are the Muslim militants in China internationally connected or supported?
Rand Paul: The deal that is pending before us now," get this, "Adds at least $7 trillion to our debt over the next 10 years." Not $2.4 trillion; $7 trillion. "The deal purports to 'cut' $2.1 trillion, but the 'cut' is from a baseline that adds $10 trillion to the debt." (Doug: How can you have a baseline - where things should be - that adds trillions to the debt. The 'baseline' should add ZERO to the debt and the elected officials can start from there!)
Rush L: As you well know, because we've been explaining this in easily understandable detail all week. I love the illustration. We could prepare a budget that is a freeze next year that doesn't spend a dime more than this year, and it would be scored as a nine and a half trillion-dollar cut because of the baseline, because of how the budget is expected to grow. This deal, even if all targets are met and the Super Committee wields its mandate - results in a BEST case scenario of still adding more than $7 trillion more in debt over the next 10 years. That is sickening. ------------------- I say everybody take a deep breath, enjoy your August, understand that we are still taking on $4 billion dollars a day of new debt accumulating with interest to eternity, and come back angry, focused, and committed to do whatever each of us can do to try to make a difference and solve this. The debt ceiling wasn't really the big opportunity to change course although both sides pretended for a while that it was. Even the Ryan plan involves taking on significant new debt for about as far as the eye can see. These things are settled in elections and we have a short time to put together a team, an agenda, and a message. The problem in past elections is that they simply have pitted 'our' big spenders against their big spenders. This time maybe we can offer a combination of real spending restraint and pro-growth economics up against their same old stagnation/class-envy agenda of tax more, regulate more, and spend without limits, and we can try to win!
"Sure, the severed limbs won't grow back and the burns will be treated with the best medical care to be found in the tribal regions of Pakistan, but at least the jihadist the strike was targeted at wasn't waterboarded....."
We should be careful with sleep deprivation too. Young jihadists need their rest, even in captivity. ---- "keeping conservative men out of women's pants"
For another thread, but wouldn't it be the abortionist, not the anti abortion politician who is literally in the woman's 'pants', if I read that inference correctly. Relating it to China and Islam, China and Islam (and Dem politicians here) should at least can find common ground in their shared disrespect for females, as Asia approaches the 200 million mark for slaughtering more young girls than boys, more than the entire female population of the United States. Such caring about innocent women! http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700150378/Modern-gendercide.html
First this: "Returning to the subject of the debt farce deal, a key question: Does the "Read our lips, no new taxes in this deal" apply to the expiration of the Bush Tax Rates?"
Of course the 'Bush tax cuts already expired. These extensions therefore are the Obama rates! In spite of me being told repeatedly by a liberal that expiration of tax cuts (from a previous decade) is NOT an increase of any kind, I can answer only for my own opinion of how Republicans will be judged - YES! -------------- Here is Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) addressing the partisanship of the moment and the need for a budget and putting controls on spending: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_68GjR6V6zI
"Compromise that is not a solution is a waste of time. If my house was on fire, I can't compromise about which part of the house I'm going to save. You save the whole house - or it will all burn down. We either save this country or we do not. And to save it, we must seek solutions."
Grateful for another glorious summer, for a little time away for a family reunion, to continue family traditions at a 100+ year old lake place with cousins who were my buddies growing up, for the grandchildren to have extended time with their grandparents, to get to better know our relatives from further away, to see my daughter enjoying the same sports and activities we enjoy and grateful to have added a new family member to the group.
"Is this guy [Brian Wesbury] always too rosey or is it me?"
Wesbury was my armchair pick for Fed Chair. He is right from my point of view on policy issues, a great analyst and formerly a great forecaster. He was especially good when things were going well.
Now I agree with CCP. Wesbury's employer is First Trust which I assume is an investment house. If the chief economist proclaims that all is going to hell, they won't do much business. So now I read his work for the facts, trends and analysis, not for macroeconomic forecasting.
He is very much a pro-growth supply-sider who I assume would be very comfortable with a freedom-based agenda from someone like a Marco Rubio or Ronald Reagan. But what he assumes, like leftist Dems do, is that the American economy is so strong and resilient that it can weather through bad policy after bad policy and continue some kind of growth at a snail's pace. Maybe so and maybe not.
I'm sure he voted against the Pelosi-Obama congress in 2006 and the Obama presidency in 2008, but I doubt he sufficiently anticipated in his writings the economic destruction that followed that change in direction.
Businesses and consumers may be sitting with money on the sidelines right now, but that does not change the fact that what the see out their is an economic world that is going to hell, laced with policial and economic uncertainty. Cases in point, how are the best companies in your area, 3M stock here for example, manufacturing and production, doing compared to gold which is a bet directly against innovation, our currency, and the productive economy?
Also remember that 'breakeven' growth is something like what they call 3.1% 'real' growth. Whether they revise the numbers to 0.1% or 2.9%, we are just arguing over how far and how fast we are moving backwards. Double dip IMHO is a fact right now, not something new to fear in the future. The long and hard argued budget deal now behind us does nothing significant in either direction to move us off our stagnation/decline path.
The rosy scenario view seems to believe that investors will start investing and innovators will start innovating again out of boredom rather than waiting for us correct any of the (fuct) fundamentals that put us in this downward spiral.
"To me it is a wonderment that his numbers are as high as they are." - Agree, unfortunately. We are only winning the argument against all powerful government at the margins. We had to lose almost all industries to complete government control in order to approach 50% of the people saying they have gone too far.
"Also remember that a goodly percentage of his negatives (25% IIRC) come from disappointed progressives."
Yes, maybe not that high but becoming very significant. A two edged sword: the loss of support from his base will never turn into Bachmann, Perry or Cain votes, but it does weaken him. Loss of support from his base contributed to the growing irrelevance and early lame duck status of G.W.Bush, (but that was during his second term).
"Note too the approval numbers of Congress are WAY lower than Baraq's."
Yes. These numbers were consistently miserable for a long time and I don't understand exactly why. I watch the numbers at Real Clear Politics. Currently they have congressional approval at 18.5% with the number that follows fairly evenly split, R's over D's by 1.2%. My read of that number with poll bias (poll responders versus actual voters) has been that Republican had to be less than 4-5% behind to break even in the real election. In that sense they are up by a little more than the 1%. Congressional approval is difficult to judge. How is a John Boehner or Harry Reid fan supposed to judge the other chamber or like the overall results? 75% disapproval means that R's, Dems and independents alike agree that they are not getting their way in congress.
I agree with CCP. Other than that ending, it was a clever and wide ranging recap (Bret Stephens, WSJ) of the Obama years so far. The surprise ending that none of a wide range of challengers can possibly defeat him, more than a year out, seems to defy the reality that Obama has sank like a stone in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, etc etc.
I guess his point is either that the successful victor will come from other than 'one of the current GOP hopefuls' (other than Perry and perhaps Palin I don't expect more serious entrants), or is it that this country and world is doomed so why bother subscribe or read his future columns(?)
With no coherent definition of success, to 'not count' several serious business ventures, I will try to not read and not respond when you make your final judgment. Why don't you declare him a failure now? That's right - you already did. Without personal knowledge beyond the readings here, I proclaim you and all your friends complete failures also. Same definition. Regretting the time put into trying to clarify nonsense.
I will still call him a "success" and an influence to be reckoned with if his ratings/viewers/paying customer base is 800,000+. ---------------- Funny. You remind me of tennis friends who say my neighbor who made it into the top ten in the world in his sport in his time, won the largest purse in history at the time, had wins over Agassi, Connors, Edberg, Lendl, Courier and Chang, won 6 tour events and went to the finals of 2 majors, Wimbledon semi-finalist etc., never amounted to anything because he wasn't ever ranked number one. Good grief. http://www.davidwheaton.com/highlights.htm
If Beck has ten followers, he is more influential than me, by more than ten-fold. If he makes a living for his family, after taxes, doing what he has a passion for, he is a success. If what he started becomes an ongoing entity with some positive influence, the venture is a success.
But let's go with your numbers. His new career includes GBTV subscriptions, listeners to his talk show, 'hits' on his website 'the blaze" (http://www.theblaze.com/), and people who follow him on facebook if he is using that venue to communicate. I think he will (continue to) hit the 800,000 mark with no problem.
If I were you, I would have stuck to the original point, (paraphrased) that you don't care for his type of message. Gaining a significant audience is a capability he already proved. The Blaze alone could be the fastest growing site of 2011-2012, we will see. ------------------- "The Blaze is only four months old and according to Quantcast already clocking in 10 million page views per week." (last January)
Glenn Beck's Site The Blaze Also Hires HuffPo's HR Manager Glynnis MacNicol | Jan. 6, 2011
Glenn BeckThe Huffington Post may have been conceived as the Left's Drudge Report but it looks like Glenn Beck's The Blaze is angling to be the new HuffPo...at least in terms of traffic and influence.
Yesterday it was reported that The Blaze had hired former HuffPo CEO Betsy Morgan to run the site, today The Wire has learned they have also scooped up HuffPo's HR manager Jackie Greaney.
Beck noted in his News Year's message that his company planned on hiring more than 40 people in the New Year and so in that sense these hires are not a surprise. But what's especially interesting here, particularly where Morgan's hire is concerned, is that it's clear Beck and Co. is interested in playing on a much larger stage with the Blaze.
And this isn't just about traffic.
The Blaze is only four months old and according to Quantcast already clocking in 10 million page views per week. That's mostly a reflection of Glenn Beck's large and built-in audience (the same audience that jettisons every book he mentions to the top of the Amazon charts) but it's solid traffic and if Beck merely wanted a vanity project that's more than enough to ensure some solid promotion and likely advertising dollars.
But Beck wants to go bigger. I suspect what he is looking for here the sort of cross platform relevance that Arianna has established with HuffPo. He wants to be a bigger player in more fields.
Also, I suspect he wants the sort of respect that has been accrued to Huffington who is now a go-to on all things politics and new media. Over the last year Beck has established himself as a media phenomenon but he is still largely skirted by the MSM who often find his brand of politics troubling. But if Beck turns The Blaze into a go-to for things other than Beck and starts breaking news to boot...well, one imagines it will be a bit like Drudge meets Arianna meets Oprah. Or a new New York Times, as the case may be!
Cranewings, I enjoyed your take on this. Without a doubt government program dependency is not the only negative force out there, it is just an amazingly large one. I have see the video game addiction thing hit young people as well.
The real dependents (children) live in a world where certain basics and luxuries are provided to them in exchange for varying levels of compliance with family rules or for nothing whatsoever depending on the family. The difference typically is the expectation of an exit strategy and in the best situations pushed, rewarded, influenced toward real achievement.
In the example let's say of the mid-20s male, out of school, not working and unable/.uninterested in breaking away from a game addiction, someone is enabling. Probably high achieving and very frustrated parents. Unlike welfare however, he becomes less likely to reproduce and pass the dependency on to 5 more generations, as welfare unarguably already has.
Your point about divorces increasing as women become more productive being good is true in the cases of women being empowered to leave a bad situation, but I don't see how the whole gamut of deteriorating social statistics can be a good thing overall. From what I see and read, there is no question that kids overall do best in a home that has a mother and a father in a loving marriage all under one roof. (That is not always possible; I write as a single father.)
We are doing many, many things in our public policies to undermine the health of our own society.