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28401  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / PD WSJ on: December 16, 2008, 11:48:04 AM
Can David Paterson Say 'No' to a Kennedy?

Media reaction to news that Caroline Kennedy is actively seeking appointment to the U.S. Senate seat held by Hillary Clinton was certainly different from how the media responded to Sarah Palin's arrival on the national stage. Mrs. Palin may have been a mayor, chairwoman of a major state regulatory commission and a governor, but her entrance into big-time politics was widely ridiculed.

In contrast, the 51-year-old Ms. Kennedy is a shy and private person who has never held a job in public life beyond her 22 months planning strategic partnerships for New York City's public schools. She has co-authored books such as "The Right to Privacy" and also co-chaired Barack Obama's vice-presidential selection committee.

But her political experience is painfully limited. A family friend, noting that she had never campaigned for anyone outside her immediate family before Mr. Obama, had to reach in explaining to Newsweek magazine that she could handle the rigors of campaigning. "She worked rope lines and spoke at campaign stops for Obama and was not turned off by that," the friend said. "In fact, she enjoyed herself."

There is no doubt Ms. Kennedy could raise tens of millions of dollars for the two Senate races she would have to run in quick succession -- one in 2010 for the remaining two years of Mrs. Clinton's term and another in 2012 for a full six-year term. She no doubt would also receive the same kind of kid-glove treatment from most of the media that Barack Obama has.

But don't count on a Kennedy continuing the dynasty that has kept a member of the family in the U.S. Senate for all but two of the last 56 years. A key factor in who will be appointed to the Senate seat is how the selection would benefit the political interests of New York Governor David Paterson, the man who will make the decision.

Mr. Paterson is himself a governor who happened into his job by accident after the spectacular fall of Eliot Spitzer. With a slowing economy, the prospect of massive tax increases and a volatile group of special interests making demands on the state's budget, his job in winning a full term in his own right won't be easy.

That's why the safest choice for Mr. Paterson might be to appoint state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who has been viewed as a possible primary challenger to the governor in 2010. Promoting Mr. Cuomo would remove the largest single obstacle to Mr. Paterson's election to the office he now holds, but it might also irritate women voters who were used to having Mrs. Clinton represent New York in the nation's capital.

"My heart goes out to David Paterson," Democratic political strategist Dan Gerstein says. "He's sadly become the grand champion of the no-win situation. No matter who he picks, he will alienate a lot of different communities."

Now, with Ms. Kennedy's openly public interest in going to the U.S. Senate, the question is whether he is willing to "just say no" to the Democratic Party's most powerful family dynasty.

-- John Fund

Obama's School Choice Is to Punt

In picking Chicago public schools chief Arne Duncan to be his Education Secretary, Barack Obama chose a middle course between appointing a fiery reformer and a favorite of the politically powerful teachers' unions that backed his candidacy.

Mr. Obama had been under pressure from liberals to appoint Linda Darling-Hammond, a Stanford University education professor viewed as an "old guard" defender of the educational status quo. On the other hand, many of his business supporters were backing Joel Klein, chancellor of New York City's public schools and someone who has often confronted teacher unions.

Mr. Obama instead opted for Mr. Duncan, a friend and Hyde Park neighbor who has often played basketball with the President-elect. Nonetheless, education reformers pronounced themselves pleased with the choice. Whitney Tilson, a founder of Democrats for Education Reform, said he had been impressed by Mr. Duncan's support for merit pay for teachers and willingness to shut down some failing public schools. Mr. Tilson said Mr. Duncan had been able to bring "real change" to the nation's third largest public school system and was the "perfect balance of being strong and getting what he wants and doing it in a way that wins."

All that may be true, but after seven years of Mr. Duncan's tenure in Chicago, its schools still remain seriously troubled. Mr. Obama, for his part, certainly never entrusted his own children to the Chicago public school system -- even schools in the affluent Hyde Park neighborhood where he lived. Instead, he sent both of his children to private schools -- as he intends to do when he moves to Washington, D.C.

-- John Fund

Quote of the Day

"For the last decade or so, the Democrats have not been as strong on education reform as the Republicans have. The Republicans have been much, much better, in my opinion, on ensuring strict accountability for schools and for districts, for ensuring that people are held responsible for closing the achievement gap and significantly increasing student achievement levels for every single child. What worries me about the Democrats is that they tend to be softer on these things, and soft is not what we need right now. Allowing schools to continue to fail year in and year out without significant ramifications either to the district or to the school is doing a disservice to the children. . . . I don't think it's too much for the children of this country to ask for to have somebody who's leading the education system who is always going to put their interests first and foremost, who is not going to care about the politics, the political flak, how many adults get mad at them, keeping the adults happy" -- District of Columbia Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee, on why despite being an Obama voter she is "somewhat terrified of what the Democrats are going to do on education," in an interview with NationalJournal.com's Amy Harder.

What If Sarah Palin Had Come from Chicago and Barack Obama from Alaska?

What's the difference between a hockey mom and a Chicago pol?

Apparently, it's more than lipstick. During the presidential campaign, Sarah Palin was criticized for having too thin a résumé to be vice president. But one portion of her record stands out now as being particularly relevant in the wake of Illinois Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich's arrest last week and Barack Obama's long-standing silence of Chicago ethics.

In 2003, Ms. Palin was appointed chairwoman and ethics supervisor of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission by then-Gov. Frank Murkowski. Before long she spotted what appeared to be ethical violations by fellow Republicans and also found the governor's response to be so sluggish that it bordered on willful blindness. The two Republicans she pointed fingers at were Randy Ruedrich, the state GOP chairman and a fellow oil and gas commissioner, and Gregg Renkes, the state's attorney general. Her beef with Mr. Ruedrich was that he appeared to be too close to a company he was supposed to be regulating. And Mr. Renkes appeared to have a financial conflict of interest in negotiating a coal-exporting trade agreement.

Mrs. Palin blew the whistle internally on both men. When nothing happened, she quit less than two years into her term. Later, when she was criticized by some Republicans for unfairly pointing an accusatory finger, she penned an op-ed and, using her famous hockey-mom metaphor, underlined the importance of holding government officials -- even members of her own party -- to high ethical standards. The incident cemented her reputation as a reformer when both men were later forced to resign and Mr. Ruedrich paid a $12,000 fine. Mrs. Palin went on to unseat Mr. Murkowski in a hard-fought GOP primary in 2006.

Compare this record to Mr. Obama's. An ethical cloud has been hanging over Mr. Blagojevich for years. We now know federal officials began looking into his affairs within months after he was elected in 2002. Mr. Obama came up in Chicago politics, shared at least one fundraiser with Mr. Blagojevich -- Tony Rezko, who was recently convicted of fraud and bribery -- and several other acquaintances, including top labor officials. But he apparently never saw any reason to publicly question the governor's ethics. In the past week the Obama camp has been compiling a list of contacts with Mr. Blagojevich and his inner circle since Election Day, which it will supposedly release next week. When that list comes out, let's hope it accurately portrays the overlap between the Obama and Blagojevich circles in Chicago. The question that will remain, however, is why didn't Mr. Obama ever assume the type of leadership role Mrs. Palin did in moving against public corruption within his own party and state?

-- Brendan Miniter

28402  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Bankruptcy is the perfect remedy on: December 16, 2008, 08:25:58 AM
WSJ
Bankruptcy Is the Perfect Remedy for Detroit
Washington hates the idea because it would lose leverage.Article


   
By TODD J. ZYWICKI
While Washington tries to arrange a bailout, the Detroit Three auto makers and their union, the United Auto Workers, keep insisting that bankruptcy would be the kiss of death. Not so: a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing will likely result in a stronger domestic industry.

To understand why, consider that the fundamental question to ask of any firm facing bankruptcy is whether it is "economically failed" or simply "financially failed."

If a typewriter manufacturer were to file for bankruptcy today it likely would be considered an economically failed enterprise. The market for typewriters is small and shrinking, and the manufacturer's financial, physical and human capital would probably be better redeployed elsewhere, such as making computers.

A financially failed enterprise, on the other hand, is worth more alive than dead. Chapter 11 exists to allow it to continue in business while reorganizing. Reorganization arose in the late 19th century when creditors of railroads unable to meet their debt obligations threatened to tear up their tracks, melt them down, and sell the steel as scrap. But innovative judges, lawyers and businessmen recognized that creditors would collect more if they all agreed to reduce their claims and keep the railroads running and producing revenues to pay them off. The same logic animates Chapter 11 today.

General Motors looks like a financially failed rather than an economically failed enterprise -- in need of reorganization not liquidation. It needs to shed labor contracts, retirement contracts, and modernize its distribution systems by closing many dealerships. This will give rise to many current and future liabilities that may be worked out in bankruptcy. It may need new management as well. Bankruptcy provides an opportunity to do all that. Consumers have little to fear. Reorganization will pare the weakest dealers while strengthening those who remain.

So why do the Detroit Three managements and the UAW insist that "bankruptcy is not an option"? Perhaps because of the pain that would be inflicted upon both.

The bankruptcy code places severe limitations on the compensation that can be paid to a manager unless there is a "bona fide job offer from another business at the same or greater rate of compensation." Given the dismal performance of the Detroit Three in recent years, it seems unlikely that their senior management will be highly coveted on the open market. Incumbent management is also likely to find its prospects for continued employment less-secure.

Chapter 11 also provides a mechanism for forcing UAW workers to take further pay cuts, reduce their gold-plated health and retirement benefits, and overcome their cumbersome union work rules. The process for adjusting a collective bargaining agreement is somewhat complicated and begins with a sort of compulsory mediation process. But if this fails a company can (with court permission) nullify the agreement. This doomsday scenario is rarely triggered, however, as its threat casts a large shadow over negotiations, providing a stick to force concessions.

Those Washington politicians who repeat the mantra that "bankruptcy is not an option" probably do so because they want to use free taxpayer money to bribe Detroit into manufacturing the green cars favored by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, rather than those cars American consumers want to buy. A Chapter 11 filing would remove these politicians' leverage, thus explaining their desperation to avoid a bankruptcy.

In short, Detroit and the public has little to fear from a bankruptcy filing, but much to fear from the corrupt bargain that is emerging among incumbent management, the UAW and Capitol Hill to spend our money to avoid their reality check.

Mr. Zywicki is a professor of law at George Mason University School of Law.

28403  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Afghanistan-Pakistan on: December 16, 2008, 07:59:51 AM
Interesting BBG.  I wonder what Michael Yon is saying about all this?

Anyway, in a totall different vein, here's this from the WSJ:

Every visitor to Pakistan has seen them: 20-foot tall roadside replicas of a remote mountain where, a decade ago, Pakistan conducted its first overt nuclear tests. This is what the country's leaders -- military, secular, Islamist -- consider their greatest achievement.

 
AP
A model of Chaghi mountain, the site of Pakistan's nuclear test.
So here's a modest proposal: Let's buy their arsenal.

A.Q. Khan, father of Pakistan's nuclear program (and midwife to a few others), likes to point out what a feat it was that a country "where we can't even make a bicycle chain" could succeed at such an immense technological task. He exaggerates somewhat: Pakistan got its bomb largely through a combination of industrial theft, systematic violation of Western export controls, and a blueprint of a weapon courtesy of Beijing.

Still, give Mr. Khan this: Thanks partly to his efforts, a country that has impoverished the great mass of its own people, corruptly enriched a tiny handful of elites, served as a base of terrorism against its neighbors, lost control of its intelligence services, radicalized untold numbers of Muslims in its madrassas, handed the presidency to a man known as Mr. 10%, and proliferated nuclear technology to Libya and Iran (among others) has, nevertheless, made itself a power to be reckoned with. Congratulations.

But if Pakistanis thought a bomb would be a net national asset, they miscalculated. Yes, Islamabad gained parity with its adversaries in New Delhi, gained prestige in the Muslim world, and gained a day of national pride, celebrated every May 28.

What Pakistan didn't gain was greater security. "The most significant reality was that the bomb promoted a culture of violence which . . . acquired the form of a monster with innumerable heads of terror," wrote Pakistani nuclear physicist Pervez Hoodbhoy earlier this year. "Because of this bomb, we can definitely destroy India and be destroyed in its response. But its function is limited to this."

In 2007, some 1,500 Pakistani civilians were killed in terrorist attacks. None of those attacks were perpetrated by India or any other country against which Pakistan's warheads could be targeted, unless it aimed at itself. But Pakistan's nuclear arsenal has made it an inviting target for the jihadists who blew up Islamabad's Marriott hotel in September and would gladly blow up the rest of the capital as a prelude to taking it over.

The day that happens may not be so very far off. President Asif Ali Zardari was recently in the U.S. asking for $100 billion to stave off economic collapse. So far, the international community has ponied up about $15 billion. That puts Mr. Zardari $85 billion shy of his fund-raising target. Meantime, the average Taliban foot soldier brings home monthly wages that are 30% higher than uniformed Pakistani security personnel.

Preventing the disintegration of Pakistan, perhaps in the wake of a war with India (how much restraint will New Delhi show after the next Mumbai-style atrocity?), will be the Obama administration's most urgent foreign-policy challenge. Since Mr. Obama has already committed a trillion or so in new domestic spending, what's $100 billion in the cause of saving the world?

Today in Opinion Journal
 

REVIEW & OUTLOOK

Barack Obama-sanCondi's Korean FailureThe Sole of Liberation

TODAY'S COLUMNISTS

Global View: Let's Buy Pakistan's Nukes
– Bret StephensMain Street: Gitmo Lawyers Are the Latest in Radical Chic
– William McGurn

COMMENTARY

The Return of Realpolitik in Arabia
– Fouad AjamiThe Lessons From 30 Years of Chinese Reform
– Hugo RestallHow Blackwater Serves America
– Erik D. PrinceBankruptcy Is the Perfect Remedy for Detroit
– Todd J. ZywickiThis is the deal I have in mind. The government of Pakistan would verifiably eliminate its entire nuclear stockpile and the industrial base that sustains it. In exchange, the U.S. and other Western donors would agree to a $100 billion economic package, administered by an independent authority and disbursed over 10 years, on condition that Pakistan remain a democratic and secular state (no military rulers; no Sharia law). It would supplement that package with military aid similar to what the U.S. provides Israel: F-35 fighters, M-1 tanks, Apache helicopters. The U.S. would also extend its nuclear umbrella to Pakistan, just as Hillary Clinton now proposes to do for Israel.

A pipe dream? Not necessarily. People forget that the world has subtracted more nuclear powers over the past two decades than it has added: Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine and South Africa all voluntarily relinquished their stockpiles in the 1990s. Libya did away with its program in 2003 when Moammar Gadhafi concluded that a bomb would be a net liability, and that he had more to gain by coming to terms with the West.

There's no compelling reason Mr. Zardari and his military brass shouldn't reach the same conclusion, assuming excellent terms and desperate circumstances. Sure, a large segment of Pakistanis will never agree. Others, who have subsisted on a diet of leaves and grass so Pakistan could have its bomb, might take a more pragmatic view.

The tragedy of Pakistan is that it remains a country that can't do the basics, like make a bicycle chain. If what its leaders want is prestige, prosperity and lasting security, they could start by creating an economy that can make one -- while unlearning how to make the bomb.
28404  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / CFLs on: December 16, 2008, 07:53:09 AM
Lights Out for Thomas Edison

Brief Analysis

No. 637

December 10, 2008

Read Article as PDF | Get Adobe Reader

by H. Sterling Burnett and Amanda Berg

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 will soon ban the most
common light bulbs in the United States.  New efficiency standards will
require manufacturers to produce incandescent bulbs that use less energy per
unit of light produced, starting with 100-watt incandescent bulbs in 2012,
down to 40-watt bulbs in 2014.

Under the new standards:

100-watt light bulbs are banned entirely.
70-watt light bulbs will have to be 36 percent to 136 percent more
efficient.
50-watt bulbs must be 50 percent to 112 percent more efficient.
40-watt bulbs will have to improve 50 percent to 110 percent.

Incandescent bulbs cannot meet these new standards absent a significant
technological breakthrough.  Thus, the common light bulb will soon be
extinct.

Illuminating Efficiency.  The alternative for most household uses will be
compact fluorescent lights (CFLs) designed to fit standard incandescent bulb
bases.  CFLs currently make up only 5 percent of the light bulb market.
They have been touted for years as the smart choice for consumers interested
in reducing their energy bills, due to their extended lifespan and low
energy use vis-à-vis the equivalent light output from an incandescent.  For
example, a 60-watt incandescent bulb produces 850 lumens - the same light
output as a 13-watt to 18-watt CFL.   Unfortunately, except under a fairly
narrow range of circumstances, CFLs are less efficient than advertised.
Manufacturers claim the average life span of a CFL bulb is 10,000 hours.
However, in many applications the life and energy savings of a CFL are
significantly lower:

CFLs must be left on for at least 15 minutes or used for several hours per
day to achieve their full energy saving benefits, according to the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Applications in which lighting is used only briefly (such as closets,
bathrooms, motion detectors and so forth) will cause CFL bulbs to burn out
as quickly as regular incandescent bulbs.

CFLs often become dimmer over time - a study of U.S. Department of Energy
"Energy Star" products found that after 40 percent of their rated service
life, one-fourth of tested CFLs no longer produced the full amount of light.

At about $3 per bulb, CFLs are expensive, whereas incandescent bulbs cost
only 20 cents per bulb, on average.  And there are other drawbacks.  For
instance:

When initially switched on, CFLs may provide as little as 50 percent to 80
percent of their rated light output and can take up to three minutes to
reach full brightness.
CFLs often don't fit existing light fixtures, such as small-base lamps and
candlelabras, so these will have to be replaced.
Standard CFLs will not operate at low temperatures, making them unsuitable
for outdoor lighting.
CFLs can emit an annoying buzz.

CFLs emit infrared light that can interfere with remote-controlled devices,
such as televisions, video games and stereo equipment.
CFLs are simply unsuited for many common uses. The new law therefore
excludes whole classes of light bulbs from the standards, including
appliance light bulbs (ovens and refrigerators), flashing and colored
lights, traffic signals, shatter-resistant bulbs, three-way adjustable bulbs
and so forth.

Hidden Dangers of CFLs.  CFLs contain potentially toxic mercury.  Thus,
there are health and environmental concerns regarding their proper disposal.
Shattered CFLs in municipal landfills have the potential to leach mercury
into the soil.  Over time this mercury could seep into the groundwater or
nearby streams.  For this reason, a number of states and localities have
outlawed disposing CFLs with normal trash - instead, consumers must take
their used CFLs to authorized hazardous waste disposal sites.

The EPA recommends recycling CFLs.  However, curbside recycling is not
available everywhere and often doesn't include CFLs.  Recycling facilities
that accept CFLs are not common within major metropolitan areas, much less
in rural areas where on-site incineration or trenches are often used - both
of which release mercury into the atmosphere.
Perhaps even more important is the danger of broken CFLs in the home. The
EPA has provided detailed guidelines to avoid unsafe indoor mercury levels
[see the sidebar].

Cleaning up mercury from a shattered CFL can be costly.  For example, when a
CFL broke in her daughter's bedroom, Brandy Bridges of Prospect, Maine,
called on the state's  Department of Environmental Protection to make sure
she cleaned up the broken glass and mercury powder safely.  A specialist
found unsafe levels of mercury in the air and recommended an environmental
cleanup firm, who estimated the clean up cost of at $2,000.  Beause her
mother was unable to pay the exorbitant cleaning bill, the girl's room
remained sealed off in plastic for more than a month.

Conclusion.  Consumers consider many factors in addition to energy
efficiency when they purchase light bulbs.  The ban on incandescent bulbs
will be costly and potentially dangerous.  The public has not yet embraced
CFLs, and the government should not impose on consumers its preferences
regarding the types of lights used in the home.  As the deficiencies of CFLs
become more apparent with widespread use, perhaps Congress will let
consumers decide.

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba/ba637/
28405  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / New technique against Giardia promising against others too on: December 16, 2008, 07:39:46 AM
A Coat of Many Proteins May Be This Parasite’s Downfall
NYT
By NICHOLAS WADE
Published: December 15, 2008

If you return from a trip abroad to find you have projectile vomiting, roaring flatulence, sulfurous belching and explosive diarrhea, the bad news is that you won’t die; you just have an attack of giardiasis, a form of purgatory devised by the single-celled parasite known as giardia.

SHIFTY When giardia must wear all its 190 coat proteins at once instead of selecting one and changing it often, it cannot hide from the immune system.

Giardia infections can linger for months because the parasite plays a cunning defense against the body’s immune system. In its genomic wardrobe, it has 190 coats to choose from. As soon as the immune system has generated antibodies against one coat, giardia switches to another. Because of the parasite’s persistence and infectivity, some 280 million cases of giardiasis occur in the world each year, the World Health Organization estimates, though most of these are in developing countries where people are more inured to the disease.

Giardia’s offensive game could have a fatal weakness, however. Biologists led by Hugo D. Luján at the Catholic University of Córdoba in Argentina have gained a striking insight into its coat-shuffling stratagem.

With this knowledge, they have accomplished a cunning counterploy: they have forced the parasite to make and wear all its coat proteins at the same time. This altered parasite, they hope, should serve as the perfect vaccine, because it immunizes the body to the full repertoire of giardia’s coat proteins all at once. The idea has worked well in animal tests, Dr. Luján said.

He thinks the same general approach — forcing expression of all coat proteins simultaneously — might help produce vaccines against the other protozoan parasites that rely on coat switching to dodge the immune system. These include malaria and the trypanosomes that cause sleeping sickness and Leishmaniasis.

Dr. Luján and his team have identified the mechanism by which giardia controls its coat proteins, they report in the current issue of Nature. Each of the parasite’s 190 coat genes is the recipe for making a different protein, and the parasite switches its coat every 10 generations or so. To produce the coat, giardia does not switch these genes on one at a time, as might be expected. Instead, it seems to leave them all turned on, allowing each to generate a messenger RNA copy of itself. Usually the messenger RNAs would direct the synthesis of proteins, but giardia then destroys all but one of the messengers, and the survivor makes the coat of the day.

To kill its messenger RNAs, giardia has adapted an ancient cellular system known as RNA interference. The system is designed to destroy foreign RNA, like that of invading viruses, so it was surprising to find it regulating a cell’s own RNAs, Dr. Luján said.

He proved this was the case by disrupting giardia’s production of enzymes, like those known as Dicer and Argonaute, that are components of the RNA interference system. With its RNA selection system out of business, giardia produces many — Dr. Luján believes probably all — of the coat proteins in its repertoire and inserts them into its outer covering.

He said he did not yet know how the organism shifted between coats but suspected that the RNA interference system favored whichever messenger RNA happened to be the most abundant at the time, and destroyed all others.

In an experiment that has not yet been published, Dr. Luján has tested gerbils, the laboratory animal often used in giardia work, with a vaccine consisting just of giardia with its RNA interference system blocked. “We saw complete protection,” he said.

Dr. Theodore E. Nash, a leading expert on giardia at the National Institutes of Health, said the new report was “a major advance in the field.” Since 1979, Dr. Nash has developed many of the methods to study giardia and its coat shuffling, several of which were used by Dr. Luján, who worked for five years in Dr. Nash’s lab.

Another giardia expert, Dr. Rodney Adam of the University of Arizona, said Dr. Luján’s work on giardia’s coat gene control was interesting “but not the whole story.” As for making a vaccine, he said that “this is not an organism to which natural infection will confer immunity.” People in developing countries may get one infection after another, although they do get a much less severe form of the disease.

Malaria also evades the immune system by switching its protein coat. Dr. Kirk Deitsch, an expert on malaria coat genes at the Weill Cornell Medical College, said Dr. Luján’s new finding “may be conceptually applicable to malaria,” although the malaria parasite does not use RNA interference and no one yet knows how to make it display all its 60 coat protein genes at once.

A human vaccine for giardia could be of great benefit if the many mild cases in the developing world do in fact undermine health. Some experts believe persistent giardia infection causes malnutrition, but others are less sure of this.

For the much smaller number of Westerners who are not inured to the disease, a vaccine would be a welcome addition to the few available drugs. It would have been a godsend for the Crusaders, who are known from historical accounts to have suffered terribly from a variety of intestinal diseases that had no respect for rank. In 1249 King Louis IX, who led the Seventh Crusade, had such serious diarrhea that part of the monarch’s breeches were cut away to ease his personal hygiene. Giardia may well have been his tormentor. Using a sensitive immunological test, researchers who excavated a medieval latrine in the city of Acre, once part of the Crusader kingdom of Jerusalem, detected the presence of giardia, they reported in the July issue of The Journal of Archaeological Science.

Giardia itself is far more ancient than any Crusader kingdom. Though a single-celled organism, it belongs to the eukaryotes, the domain that includes all plants and animals. In the tree of eukaryotic life, giardia belongs to one of the earliest branches. It lacks mitochondria, the energy-producing organelles that are almost a badge of eukaryote identity. Even stranger, each giardia cell possesses two nuclei; no one knows what benefit offsets the cost of maintaining the second. Before this enigmatic microbe plagued people, it was doubtless the scourge of many earlier species. Dr. Luján’s discovery may be a critical step in curbing giardia’s merciless torment of its fellow eukaryotes.
28406  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Dr. Jessica Fridrich on: December 16, 2008, 07:36:28 AM
Prediction:

Rachel will use this one to tease GM  cheesy

Marc
================================

Specializing in Problems That Only Seem Impossible to Solve
by VENKATARAMAN
NYT
Published: December 15, 2008

“It’s a little plastic toy,” said Jessica Fridrich, tossing a Rubik’s Cube between her long-fingered hands on a stormy afternoon in her office at Binghamton University, her fingernails painted with a pastel pink gloss.


MATH AS METHOD Jessica Fridrich’s strategy for quickly solving the Rubik’s Cube requires using at least 53 algorithms.

But the little toy, an icon of the era of Pac-Man and high-top sneakers, has made a big comeback. For a thriving subculture of people who try to solve the cube as fast as possible, Dr. Fridrich is a pioneer and a patron saint. She forged what remains arguably the world’s most common strategy for speed-solving the puzzle, and appeared in a documentary about the Rubik’s Cube released this fall.
Dr. Fridrich first cracked the colorful walls of the Rubik’s Cube in 1981 as a teenager living in a Czech coal mining city. Few people will spend decades decoding a plastic block, no matter how mathematically intricate. But few people are as tenacious as the architect of “The Fridrich Method,” a roadmap that requires a speedcuber to memorize and unleash at least 53 algorithms, each of which is a series of turns of the cube’s rows and columns in a given sequence.

For Dr. Fridrich, tackling an impossible puzzle is not a hobby, and the Rubik’s Cube is not simply a game. They are obsessions.

Trapped in Czechoslovakia until the Velvet Revolution made migration to the United States for doctoral study possible, Dr. Fridrich, self-taught in differential and integral calculus, sketched out a solution to the Rubik’s Cube in a tattered notebook even before owning one.

Dr. Fridrich, 44, an electrical engineering professor, is frequently confronted at academic conferences and asked to solve the cube on the spot. She fields e-mail messages from 13-year-olds in Japan and has inspired scores of YouTube videos from cube enthusiasts riffing on her method, which was propagated on the Internet in the late 1990s as the puzzle saw a resurgence.

“She chose the basic route, the direction we would take up the mountain,” said Dan Knights, winner of the 2003 World Rubik’s Cube Championship (Dr. Fridrich placed second). “And other people are finding different ways from one ledge to another.”

Mr. Knights, 29, used the Fridrich Method to win the 2003 competition after seeking her out as a mentor four years earlier. At first confounded by her techniques, he took a year off from college to learn them while traveling by train through Europe and Asia.

The Fridrich Method requires first solving the top two layers of the three-tiered Rubik’s Cube, selecting the face with the central white square as the roof. (Each face has a middle square of a distinct color attached to the cube’s central joint that dictates the color the face will be when solved.) Most speedcubers learn to do this by intuition, improvising until the white face remains intact and other squares fall into place on their correctly colored sides. The crux of the Fridrich Method lies in solving the third and last layer of the cube without compromising the color scheme put into place in the initial steps.

To solve the third layer, the speedcuber must assemble all of the yellow squares on the bottom face by applying one of 40 algorithms in a phase called “orientation.” The cuber must instantly recognize which algorithm to apply in order to have any hope of solving it with haste. In the final step, permutation, one of 13 algorithms restores the cube’s chromatic harmony, one color per face.

The world’s fastest speedcubers, including Dr. Fridrich, know more than 100 algorithms to whisk the cube to its solution. They recognize when the puzzle is jumbled or positioned in their palms in a way that one set of moves is quicker than 99 others.

As a teenager, Dr. Fridrich saw a man demonstrating the Rubik’s Cube at a mathematics seminar, and scrambled defiantly through a crowd to touch it. She says it was immediately clear that she was “cube possessed,” her shorthand for people who spend most of their waking hours learning to speed-solve the cube. Even though no cubes were for sale in her country then — the few people who had them bought them in Hungary — she would not be stopped. She picked up Kvant, a Russian math journal that outlined one method of solving the cube, and worked it out on paper.

When she finally got her first cube, left behind by family friends visiting from France, she began to improvise, cubing faster and faster to beat record times from Prague, Hungary and the United States printed in newspapers. By the time the Czech national championship took place in 1982, Dr. Fridrich was one of the fastest speedcubers in the country. She won the championship, solving the cube in less than 23 and a half seconds — a time that would now be laughably long in international competition — going onto place 10th in the first world championship in Budapest.

========

Page 2 of 2)



After earning her master’s degree, she was building mathematical models of rock deformation at a mining institute when she was recruited by a professor from Binghamton who heard about her mastery of the cube and her grades at the Czech Technical University in Prague. After a brief meeting in which she described her cube algorithms, he asked her to apply for the doctoral program in systems sciences. She had no résumé, so she dashed one off on a typewriter just before the professor’s train left the station. A year later, she arrived in Binghamton, where she has lived ever since.


In her research in digital forensics, Dr. Fridrich uses computers to tackle another seemingly intractable puzzle: matching a photograph with the individual camera that took it. Law enforcement agencies plan to use the techniques to track down child pornographers and movie pirates.

“She looks at a problem that seems insolvable,” said George J. Klir, the retired professor who recruited her 18 years ago. “And she finds a way to solve it, again and again.”

Dr. Fridrich was drawn to “camera ballistics” because of its inscrutable mysteries, similar to those the Rubik’s Cube held in the early ’80s. “It was very visual,” she said. “Usually when you develop an algorithm or a formula you cannot really see it.”

When Dr. Fridrich forged her Rubik’s Cube algorithms, she did so by trial and error, using only pencil, paper and a cube. Today, the cube is no longer an uncharted territory like digital forensics, but a terrain well-plowed by personal computers and the sweaty palms of speedcubers.

Software programs can compute the quickest solution to any given mix-up of the cube’s faces. Hundreds, possibly thousands of speedcubers have tweaked the Fridrich Method to work with a technique called “finger pushing,” best used on cubes with joints eased loose by repetitive stress so you can flick their walls instead of grabbing rows to rotate them. Now, Dr. Fridrich said, the cube has been “optimized to death,” and holds little allure — even though she still keeps nearly 20 of the plastic puzzles scattered around her office and home.

Dexterity once defined Dr. Fridrich, who now uses just six fingers to hunt and peck on her keyboard. She has been far surpassed by speedcubers with records of 14, 13 and 10 seconds, some of whom can solve the cube blindfolded after studying it for less than a minute. “Today I would probably be in 20th or 30th place,” she said. “I am letting it go because I think it’s time for others to succeed.”

For someone who wins for the sake of winning, who never roots for the underdog, in sports or in life, this retreat from speedcubing seems something like a reluctant acceptance that some things are indeed, impossible.

At the very least, she admitted, “it’s not yet possible to do everything at once.”
28407  DBMA Martial Arts Forum / Martial Arts Topics / Studies in Criminal Activities on: December 16, 2008, 07:24:13 AM
Kidnapping Negotiator Is Now a Victim in Mexico
NYT   
By MARC LACEY
Published: December 15, 2008

MEXICO CITY — An American security consultant who has helped negotiate the release of scores of kidnapping victims in Latin America was himself kidnapped last week in northern Mexico after delivering a seminar there on how to avoid that fate, officials said Monday.

The F.B.I. and Mexican law enforcement officials are investigating the abduction, which took place Wednesday evening in Saltillo, an industrial city a three-hour drive from the Texas border.

The consultant, Felix Batista, 55, was giving security seminars for business owners in Coahuila State when he was abducted by a group of armed men.

He arrived Dec. 6 and gave two seminars on Monday and Tuesday, the local news media reported. On Wednesday, he met with police officials, and later in the day, he was in a restaurant when he received a call on his cellphone that prompted him to get up and leave, officials told the local news media. That is when the armed men took him away, officials and local newspapers said.

“I do a lot of security consulting, and the last thing I think of is being a victim in the process,” said Jon M. French, a former State Department official who runs his own security company in Mexico City, Problem Solvers. “Talk about turning the tables.”

Mr. Batista works for ASI Global, a security company based in Houston. It operates a 24-hour hot line that aids clients with, among other things, responding to kidnappings.

“We’re still gathering information on what occurred,” said Charlie LeBlanc, the president of ASI Global’s parent company. He confirmed that Mr. Batista had been kidnapped, but declined to say whether a ransom had been demanded.

Mr. LeBlanc said the company and Mr. Batista’s relatives were working with colleagues and law enforcement officials to gain his release. “Our thoughts and prayers are with Felix and his family at this time,” Mr. LeBlanc said in a statement.

Coahuila has not been among the most violent places in Mexico, where killings and kidnappings have soared. Many of them are associated with drug traffickers moving narcotics to the United States.

But the state, which abuts Texas, has not been immune either. Two of the state’s anti-kidnapping chiefs have been abducted in recent years, according to local news reports. State lawmakers, clearly frustrated with the rising level of impunity, recently sent a bill to Mexico’s Congress asking for a constitutional amendment allowing the death penalty for kidnappers who kill captives.

Mr. Batista, a former United States Army officer credited with helping to free hostages abducted by Colombian rebels, has frequently been quoted by journalists on Mexico’s drug violence. He offered regular seminars to wealthy Mexicans who feared they were abduction targets.

At a private security conference in Tijuana in February, Mr. Batista said kidnappings in northern Mexico were especially delicate because drug traffickers were frequently involved.

“The narco-kidnappers are not looking for chump change,” he was quoted as saying by McClatchy Newspapers in April. “It’s a pretty darn good side business.”

In August, he appeared on NBC News, saying, “The middle class and the middle upper class are suffering the vast majority of the cases.”

In an article published this month by Security Management, a trade journal, Mr. Batista detailed how he had helped negotiate the ransom of a wealthy Mexican entrepreneur. Before he was called in, the family had given $1 million to a group of people who had falsely claimed to be the kidnappers.

Mr. Batista helped persuade the real kidnappers to reduce their ransom demand to $300,000. A daughter of the kidnapped businessman had nothing but praise for Mr. Batista’s efforts.

“Felix even cooked for us sometimes,” she was quoted as saying. “It’s important not to lose hope or get depressed, because you need to keep strong to help.”

Hundreds of Mexicans are kidnapped every year, although the authorities can only guess at the exact figure because most cases are never reported. There is widespread agreement that the problem has worsened recently as drug cartels, facing pressure from the army and the federal police, seek new revenue streams.

In one case that ended tragically last week, the authorities confirmed that remains discovered recently in southern Mexico City were those of Silvia Vargas, a teenager kidnapped in 2007. Her parents, who went public with her disappearance and offered a reward for information leading to her release, held a memorial service on Sunday, asking everyone to wear white.

“We know that Silvia is with God,” the family said in a statement.
28408  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Piracy on: December 16, 2008, 07:20:04 AM
The NYTimes in typical form

Pirates Outmaneuver Warships Off Somalia
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN
Published: December 15, 2008
ON THE ARABIAN SEA — Rear Adm. Giovanni Gumiero is going on a pirate hunt.

Italian sailors on patrol on the Arabian Sea. Pirates based in Somalia are still able to operate in the area.

An Italian naval destroyer, foreground, escorted a merchant vessel that was carrying a cargo of humanitarian aid to Somalia in November.

From the deck of an Italian destroyer cruising the pirate-infested waters off Somalia’s coast, he has all the modern tools at his fingertips — radar, sonar, infrared cameras, helicopters, a cannon that can sink a ship 10 miles away — to take on a centuries-old problem that harks back to the days of schooners and eye patches.

“Our presence will deter them,” the admiral said confidently.

But the wily buccaneers of Somalia’s seas do not seem especially deterred — instead, they seem to be getting only wilier. More than a dozen warships from Italy, Greece, Turkey, India, Denmark, Saudi Arabia, France, Russia, Britain, Malaysia and the United States have joined the hunt.

And yet, in the past two months alone, the pirates have attacked more than 30 vessels, eluding the naval patrols, going farther out to sea and seeking bigger, more lucrative game, including an American cruise ship and a 1,000-foot Saudi oil tanker.

The pirates are recalibrating their tactics, attacking ships in beelike swarms of 20 to 30 skiffs, and threatening to choke off one of the busiest shipping arteries in the world, at the mouth of the Red Sea.

United Nations officials recently estimated that Somali pirates had netted as much as $120 million this year in ransom payments — an astronomical sum for a country whose economy has been gutted by 17 years of chaos and war. Some shipping companies are now rerouting their vessels to avoid Somalia’s waters, detouring thousands of miles around the Cape of Good Hope, at the southern tip of Africa.

The pirates are totally outgunned. They continue to cruise around in fiberglass skiffs with assault rifles and at best a few rocket-propelled grenades. One Italian officer said that going after them in a 485-foot-long destroyer, bristling with surface-to-air missiles and torpedoes, was like “going after someone on a bicycle with a truck.”

But the pirates — true to form — remain unfazed.

“They can’t stop us,” said Jama Ali, one of the pirates aboard a Ukrainian freighter packed with weapons that was hijacked in September and was still being held.

He explained how he and his men hid out on a rock near the narrow mouth of the Red Sea and waited for the big gray ships with the guns to pass before pouncing on slow-moving tankers. Even if foreign navies nab some members of his crew, Mr. Jama said, he is not worried. He said his men would probably get no more punishment than a free ride back to the beach, which has happened several times.

“We know international law,” Mr. Jama said.

Western diplomats have said that maritime law can be as murky as the seas. Several times this year, the Danish Navy captured men they suspected to be pirates, only to dump them on shore after the Danish government decided it did not have jurisdiction.

The American warships surrounding the hijacked Ukrainian freighter have intercepted several small skiffs going to the freighter, but let the men aboard go because American officials said they did not want to put the freighter’s crew in danger.

This seeming impunity is especially infuriating to the new cadre of private security guards, fresh from the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan, hired to tag along on merchant voyages to add a layer of protection. Burly men with tattooed forearms and shaved heads sipping Heineken and checking their watches are now common sights on the beaches of Oman, Kenya and Djibouti. They have their own ideas for dealing with seafaring outlaws.

“We should make ’em walk the plank,” one British security guard said.

Despite tough talk, the guards are unarmed (because most countries do not allow them to bring weapons into port), so they are often forced to confront machine-gun-toting pirates with fire hoses.

Or worse. There was even a recent case, according to several security contractors, in which Filipino crew members pelted pirates with tomatoes in an attempt to stop them from scaling the hull of their ship. It did not work.

The Italian naval officers say the piracy patrols are helping — already the Italians have rescued several merchant vessels surrounded by pirate skiffs. The Italian destroyer is part of a NATO mission that began in October.

“But the answer is to have a good, strong government on land,” Admiral Gumiero said. “That’s the only way to end this, for sure.”
==========
Page 2 of 2)



That said, strong government is nowhere to be found. The piracy epidemic is not so much a separate problem as a symptom of the failed state of Somalia — a place crawling with guns, gangs and criminals that has not had a functioning central government since 1991.

In Xarardheere, much of the economy is based on piracy.


 Many Somalia analysts think that it is about to get even worse. The Ethiopian military, which has been shoring up a weak and unpopular transitional Somali government, says it will pull out within a month.

The transitional government, split by poisonous infighting, seems on the brink of collapse. Islamic militants with links to Al Qaeda are poised to take over. Famine is steadily creeping toward millions of people, many withering away in plastic huts that are no match for the intense sun or the drenching rains.

United Nations officials are swinging into crisis mode, calling high-level meetings in East Africa and New York to address piracy and the greater Somali mess. Some United Nations officials are pushing to send in peacekeepers, but no countries are rushing to offer troops.

Some American officials have proposed chasing the pirates on the shore and raiding their dens, which are well known but so far untouched. Somalia’s transitional leaders, anxious for any help, said they would welcome that.

“This is a cancer and it’s growing,” said Abdi Awaleh Jama, an ambassador at large for the transitional federal government. “We have to extract it once and for all.”

More than 100 ships have been attacked off Somalia’s coast in 2008, far more than in any previous year on record. The economic costs are piling up, with higher insurance payments for shippers, higher fuel costs because of detours and new private security bills, not to mention the million-dollar ransom payments.

The cash-starved Egyptian government is poised to lose billions of dollars if ships from the Middle East and Asia stop using the Suez Canal, one of Egypt’s biggest foreign-exchange earners, and go around Africa instead.

But the end of piracy could be an economic catastrophe — for many Somalis. Their country exports almost nothing these days, and more legitimate forms of business have largely died off.

Entire clans and coastal villages now survive off piracy, with women baking bread for pirates, men and boys guarding hostages, and others serving as scouts, gunmen, mechanics, accountants and skiff builders. Traders make a nice cut off the water, fuel and cigarettes needed to sustain such oceangoing voyages.

Pirates are known as the best customers of all.

“They pay $20 for a $5 bottle of perfume,” said Leyla Ahmed, a shopkeeper in Xarardheere, a notorious pirate den on the Somali coast.

Maritime experts say that the naval efforts will take time. “Let’s wait and see,” said Pottengal Mukundan, director of the International Maritime Bureau in London. “You must appreciate it’s a very large stretch of water, a massive area,” he said, referring to the several hundred thousand square miles of sea where the naval ships are patrolling.

Then there is the nettlesome question of what to do with the pirates. Italian officers on pirate patrol seemed uncomfortable at the thought of actually capturing a real live pirate. There is not even a brig or place to hold the pirates on the destroyer.

“Our main goal is providing safe passage,” said Fabrizio Simoncini, the destroyer’s captain.

So far, they have done a decent job at that, escorting at least eight humanitarian ships, with 30,000 tons of badly needed aid for Somalia.

The Indian Navy recently announced that it had arrested 23 pirates, though it is not clear where the suspects would be prosecuted. Last week in Nairobi, Kenya, at an antipiracy conference, British officials outlined a plan for their navy to capture Somali pirates and hand them over to Kenyan courts.

But according to Kenneth Randall, dean of the University of Alabama School of Law and an international law scholar, “Any country can arrest these guys and prosecute them at home, under domestic laws that apply.

“I’m actually surprised people think it’s unclear,” he said. “The law on piracy is 100 percent clear.”

He said that international customary law going back hundreds of years had defined pirates as criminals who robbed and stole on the high seas. Because the crimes were committed in international waters, he said, all countries had not only the authority but also the obligation to apprehend and prosecute them.

The Italians clearly have the resources. Out on the front lines, or front waves, beefy Italian marines prowl the decks with machine guns. Radar screens blip and beep. Sailors make announcements over the destroyer’s radio, telling nearby cargo ships to put out an S O S with their position as soon as they spot any pirates.

The Italians said that, deep down, pirates were creatures of the sea, no matter how many navy ships were hot on their tail. “When the sea is calm, the moon is bright, the weather is good, it’s easy to see how the pirates are encouraged,” said Enrico Vignola, a lieutenant on the ship.

For visitors on board, lunchtime was the highlight. The officers summoned up from the oily bowels of the destroyer a banquet of homemade pasta, marinated eggplant sliced paper thin, prosciutto-wrapped dates and tiramisu, finished off with cool glasses of spumante.

It seems that when Italians hunt for pirates, they hunt in style.

28409  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: The American Creed: Our Founding Fathers: on: December 16, 2008, 07:10:54 AM
Woof All:

I added to the name of the thread this AM to reflect my sense that there is an American Creed.  It was articulated and defined by our Founding Fathers, but others since then have done so as well.  Its why I quote President Reagan here, and have quoted Martin Luther King here.  Note that the standard non-contemporaries of the FF must meet to belong here on this thread is a very high one indeed!

Before continuing, lets bring some light to the dark side of this.  There ARE certain thoughts and values which are part of being a true American-- and YES I am saying that if you don't, you aren't.  For example, a belief in the pursuit of happiness enabled by freedom of choice, informed by freedom of speech, made real by separation of church and state.  If you don't believe in these things, you are not a true American and if you work against them, you are no friend of mine.

The point however is not to exclude, the point is to find what it is that unites us.

I recognize that I take a risk here-- how rare!  cheesy  Know that I will be fairly ruthless in shutting down any tendencies to drift into the cats and dogs squabbles of the moment--  we look here for the deeper and abiding essence of things.  If the experience shows this to be a mistake, well then I will change my mind and revert the thread to its original definition.

Lets kick things off with something I ran across yesterday:
====================================

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=931696981298d010VgnVCM10000048f3d6a1RCRD
 
The oath of allegiance is:

"I hereby declare, on oath, that I absolutely and entirely renounce and abjure all allegiance and fidelity to any foreign prince, potentate, state, or sovereignty of whom or which I have heretofore been a subject or citizen; that I will support and defend the Constitution and laws of the United States of America against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I will bear arms on behalf of the United States when required by the law; that I will perform noncombatant service in the Armed Forces of the United States when required by the law; that I will perform work of national importance under civilian direction when required by the law; and that I take this obligation freely without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; so help me God."

In some cases, USCIS allows the oath to be taken without the clauses:

". . .that I will bear arms on behalf of the United States when required by law; that I will perform noncombatant service in the Armed Forces of the United States when required by law. . .
=================

I wonder why it is, and whether it is sound, to allow the oath to be taken in less than its entirety , , ,

Marc
28410  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Re: Agradecimiento de cada dia on: December 16, 2008, 05:12:47 AM
Cecilio:

Que bueno verte por estes partes aqui  smiley  Como habra's notado, ahora tengo software de traduccion, lo cual me permitira' contribuir mas y mejor aqui.

Todos:

Hoy agradezco que mi esposa regresa esta noche de visita a su madre.

La Aventura continua!
Marc
28411  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Webster on: December 16, 2008, 05:10:04 AM
"The virtues of men are of more consequence to society than their abilities; and for this reason, the heart should be cultivated with more assiduity than the head."

--Noah Webster, On the Education of Youth in America, 1788
28412  DBMA Martial Arts Forum / Martial Arts Topics / Not good for the resume on: December 15, 2008, 11:24:30 PM
US anti-kidnapping expert kidnapped in MexicoDec 15 03:00 PM US/Eastern

MEXICO CITY (AP) - A well-known U.S. anti-kidnapping expert has himself fallen victim to the wave of abductions in Mexico as unidentified assailants snatched him from a street in the northern state of Coahuila.
Local authorities say American Felix Batista was in Mexico to give talks and offer advice against kidnapping. The former U.S. army officer sometimes serves as a negotiator with kidnappers.
Batista is a consultant for the Houston, Texas-based security firm ASI Global LLC. ASI Global President Charlie LeBlanc says Batista was abducted on Dec. 10 in Saltillo, the capital of Coahuila. LeBlanc said Monday that the FBI and Mexican police are working on the case, but would not say whether any ransom demand has been received.


http://www.breitbart.com/print.php?i...show_article=1
28413  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Obama Phenomena on: December 15, 2008, 05:19:56 PM
SB et al:

I sincerely hope that BO was born in HI.  I think it would be an utter tragedy and disaster if it turns out that he was not and therefor ineligible to serve.

"Perhaps the most common argument of those questioning Obama's eligibility is that he should just release his full, original birth certificate, rather than the shorter certification, which is a copy. His failure to do so only proves there is reason to be suspicious, they say, and if the document was released, the issue would go away. But that's unlikely. It was, after all, the Obama campaign's release of the certification this summer that stoked the fever of conspiracy mongers."

This is specious reasoning for reasons obvious to the general IQ level of this forum.   Count me amongs those who can't think of a good reason not to release the original.

Marc 
28414  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Reagan on: December 15, 2008, 12:56:22 PM
Third post of day:

THE GIPPER
"The most dangerous myth is the demagoguery that business can be made to pay a larger share, thus relieving the individual. Politicians preaching this are either deliberately dishonest, or economically illiterate, and either one should scare us. Business doesn't pay taxes, and who better than business to make this message known? Only people pay taxes, and people pay as consumers every tax that is assessed against a business. Begin with the food and fiber raised in the farm, to the ore drilled in a mine, to the oil and gas from out of the ground, whatever it may be -- through the processing, through the manufacturing, on out to the retailer's license. If the tax cannot be included in the price of the product, no one along that line can stay in business." --Ronald Reagan
28415  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Bill of Rights on: December 15, 2008, 12:55:11 PM
BILL OF RIGHTS ANNIVERSARY
Today, 15 December, is the 217th anniversary of the adoption of the Bill of Rights, the first Ten Amendments to our Constitution, as ratified in 1791.

The Bill of Rights was inspired by three remarkable documents: John Locke's 1689 thesis, Two Treatises of Government, regarding the protection of "property" (in the Latin context, proprius, or one's own "life, liberty and estate"); in part from the Virginia Declaration of Rights authored by George Mason in 1776 as part of that state's Constitution; and, of course, in part from our Declaration of Independence authored by Thomas Jefferson.

Read in context, the Bill of Rights is both an affirmation of innate individual rights and a clear delineation on constraints upon the central government. As oft trampled and abused as the Bill of Rights is, Patriots should remain vigilant in the fight for our rights.
28416  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Its not going away , , , on: December 15, 2008, 12:53:44 PM
These seem like some fair points to me , , ,

"Anyone who relies solely on MSM outlets ... may not even know that Obama has, to this day, not authorized the state of Hawaii to release his Certificate of Live Birth -- the 'long form' -- to prove that he is a 'natural born citizen' (NBC), a Constitutional requirement of all presidents. Instead, We, the People, have online access to an Obama document known as a Certification of Live Birth, which, as Randall Hoven explains at American Thinker blog, is a computer-generated short form that is not even accepted by the Hawaii Department of Home Lands as adequate verification of Hawaiian identity. ... Further dimming the online document's Holy Grail aspects, it has been altered -- the certificate's number has been redacted -- which, according to a statement printed on the document, actually invalidates it. But that's not all. Back on Oct. 31, Hawaii's director of health, along with the registrar of Vital Statistics, released a statement verifying that the Hawaii's Department of Health has Obama's 'original birth certificate on record in accordance with state policies and procedures.' Well, that's just great. But no matter how many times this statement from 'Hawaiian authorities' is cited as the NBC clincher, it doesn't prove a thing. It turns out, as Hoven reports, that Hawaii issues birth certificates even for babies born elsewhere, so simply having an original Hawaiian birth certificate 'on record' doesn't answer the key questions. Namely: What exactly does this original birth certificate say? And why doesn't Obama simply authorize the document's release and be done with the question? ... I think it is nothing less than good citizenship to seek to verify that Obama is a 'natural born citizen' since our elites, which include the major political parties and the MSM, failed to bring the matter to its extremely simple resolution long ago. But while important, this isn't just a story about whether we as Americans are right or wrong to ask our president-elect the question about his original birth certificate. It is about whether our president-elect is right or wrong not to answer it." --columnist Diana West
28417  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Environmental issues on: December 15, 2008, 12:32:52 PM
Does that mean the white man was right to kill the buffalo that blanketed the prairies when we arrived? rolleyes cheesy
28418  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Triggerfish on: December 15, 2008, 11:34:58 AM
Second post of the morning

FOIA docs show feds can lojack mobiles without telco help
By Julian Sanchez | Published: November 16, 2008 - 10:45PM CT

Related StoriesCourt: warrant needed to turn cell phone into homing beacon

Courts in recent years have been raising the evidentiary bar law enforcement agents must meet in order to obtain historical cell phone records that reveal information about a target's location. But documents obtained by civil liberties groups under a Freedom of Information Act request suggest that "triggerfish" technology can be used to pinpoint cell phones without involving cell phone providers at all.

Triggerfish, also known as cell-site simulators or digital analyzers, are nothing new: the technology was used in the 1990s to hunt down renowned hacker Kevin Mitnick. By posing as a cell tower, triggerfish trick nearby cell phones into transmitting their serial numbers, phone numbers, and other data to law enforcement. Most previous descriptions of the technology, however, suggested that because of range limitations, triggerfish were only useful for zeroing in on a phone's precise location once cooperative cell providers had given a general location.

This summer, however, the American Civil Liberties Union and Electronic Frontier Foundation sued the Justice Department, seeking documents related to the FBI's cell-phone tracking practices. Since August, they've received a stream of documents—the most recent batch on November 6—that were posted on the Internet last week. In a post on the progressive blog Daily Kos, ACLU spokesperson Rachel Myers drew attention to language in several of those documents implying that triggerfish have broader application than previously believed.

 As one of the documents intended to provide guidance for DOJ employees explains, triggerfish can be deployed "without the user knowing about it, and without involving the cell phone provider." That may be significant because the legal rulings requiring law enforcement to meet a high "probable cause" standard before acquiring cell location records have, thus far, pertained to requests for information from providers, pursuant to statutes such as the Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act (CALEA) and the Stored Communications Act.


The Justice Department's electronic surveillance manual explicitly suggests that triggerfish may be used to avoid restrictions in statutes like CALEA that bar the use of pen register or trap-and-trace devices—which allow tracking of incoming and outgoing calls from a phone subject to much less stringent evidentiary standards—to gather location data. "By its very terms," according to the manual, "this prohibition applies only to information collected by a provider and not to information collected directly by law enforcement authorities.Thus, CALEA does not bar the use of pen/trap orders to authorize the use of cell phone tracking devices used to locate targeted cell phones." 


Perhaps surprisingly, it's only with the passage of the USA PATRIOT Act in 2001 that the government has needed any kind of court order to use triggerfish. While previously, the statutory language governing pen register or trap-and-trace orders did not appear to cover location tracking technology. Under the updated definition, these explicitly include any "device or process which records or decodes dialing, routing, addressing, and signaling information."
28419  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Audit on: December 15, 2008, 11:12:38 AM
Audit
As the first digital president, Barack Obama is learning the hard way how difficult it can be to maintain privacy in the information age. Earlier this year, his passport file was snooped by contract workers in the State Department. In October, someone at Immigration and Customs Enforcement leaked information about his aunt's immigration status. And in November, Verizon employees peeked at his cell phone records.

What these three incidents illustrate is not that computerized databases are vulnerable to hacking -- we already knew that, and anyway the perpetrators all had legitimate access to the systems they used -- but how important audit is as a security measure.

When we think about security, we commonly think about preventive measures: locks to keep burglars out of our homes, bank safes to keep thieves from our money, and airport screeners to keep guns and bombs off airplanes. We might also think of detection and response measures: alarms that go off when burglars pick our locks or dynamite open bank safes, sky marshals on airplanes who respond when a hijacker manages to sneak a gun through airport security. But audit, figuring out who did what after the fact, is often far more important than any of those other three.

Most security against crime comes from audit. Of course we use locks and alarms, but we don't wear bulletproof vests. The police provide for our safety by investigating crimes after the fact and prosecuting the guilty: that's audit.

Audit helps ensure that people don't abuse positions of trust. The cash register, for example, is basically an audit system. Cashiers have to handle the store's money. To ensure they don't skim from the till, the cash register keeps an audit trail of every transaction. The store owner can look at the register totals at the end of the day and make sure the amount of money in the register is the amount that should be there.

The same idea secures us from police abuse, too. The police have enormous power, including the ability to intrude into very intimate aspects of our life in order to solve crimes and keep the peace. This is generally a good thing, but to ensure that the police don't abuse this power, we put in place systems of audit like the warrant process.

The whole NSA warrantless eavesdropping scandal was about this. Some misleadingly painted it as allowing the government to eavesdrop on foreign terrorists, but the government always had that authority. What the government wanted was to not have to submit a warrant, even after the fact, to a secret FISA court. What they wanted was to not be subject to audit.

That would be an incredibly bad idea. Law enforcement systems that don't have good audit features designed in, or are exempt from this sort of audit-based oversight, are much more prone to abuse by those in power -- because they can abuse the system without the risk of getting caught. Audit is essential as the NSA increases its domestic spying. And large police databases, like the FBI Next Generation Identification System, need to have strong audit features built in.

For computerized database systems like that -- systems entrusted with other people's information -- audit is a very important security mechanism. Hospitals need to keep databases of very personal health information, and doctors and nurses need to be able to access that information quickly and easily. A good audit record of who accessed what when is the best way to ensure that those trusted with our medical information don't abuse that trust. It's the same with IRS records, credit reports, police databases, telephone records -- anything personal that someone might want to peek at during the course of his job.

Which brings us back to President Obama. In each of those three examples, someone in a position of trust inappropriately accessed personal information. The difference between how they played out is due to differences in audit. The State Department's audit worked best; they had alarm systems in place that alerted superiors when Obama's passport files were accessed and who accessed them. Verizon's audit mechanisms worked less well; they discovered the inappropriate account access and have narrowed the culprits down to a few people. Audit at Immigration and Customs Enforcement was far less effective; they still don't know who accessed the information.

Large databases filled with personal information, whether managed by governments or corporations, are an essential aspect of the information age. And they each need to be accessed, for legitimate purposes, by thousands or tens of thousands of people. The only way to ensure those people don't abuse the power they're entrusted with is through audit. Without it, we will simply never know who's peeking at what.

Obama stories:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/20/...
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/01/...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122724536331647671.html
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/...
NSA domestic spying:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120511973377523845.html

FBI's Next Generation Identification System:
http://www.fbi.gov/pressrel/pressrel08/...

This essay first appeared on the Wall Street Journal website.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122877438178489235.html
28420  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Unintended consequences on: December 15, 2008, 11:06:15 AM
U.S. President George W. Bush made what is likely his final trip as president to Iraq on Sunday. During the trip, he discussed what progress had been made while reiterating that the war there has not yet been won decisively. Bush was undoubtedly correct on both counts, but in a sense, these are no longer the key (or at least the only) questions that have to be asked in evaluating the Iraq war.

We have discussed the reasoning behind the U.S. invasion of Iraq innumerable times, and the issue certainly has been debated to the point that it is unlikely there is anyone left who hasn’t made up his mind on the subject. The point that significant progress has been made but that the situation remains fluid strikes us as fairly uncontroversial. Few deny that progress has been made; few would say the war is over.

There are four ways to evaluate the Iraq war. First, was the U.S. goal in the war worthy of the effort it required? Second, did the war achieve its intended goal? Third, was the war effort executed effectively? And finally, did the war have unintended consequences elsewhere? This last issue has always been discussed in terms of international hostility toward the United States or radicalization in the Muslim world. These subjects are worthy of discussion, but to our minds, the greatest unintended consequence of the Iraq war was the opportunity it provided for other states to enhance their power. The United States’ commitment to Iraq provided the world with breathing room and space for maneuver that it otherwise might not have had.

For five years, the bulk of American ground war-fighting capability was committed to Iraq. During that time, the threat posed by American power declined. Venezuela, for example, with all its talk about an American invasion, knew perfectly well that the United States was in no position to think about Caracas. This gave Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez room for maneuver that he otherwise might not have felt he had. In another example, there is much discussion of the need to intervene in Darfur. Whatever the wisdom of such an action, the Sudanese government has known the United States was in no position to play a leading role in such an operation. And whatever threats Washington might have made against Pakistan, Islamabad knew perfectly well that a multidivisional attack was not an option. With U.S. land power off the table for five years, the American ability to shape the world through threats and actions was severely diminished.

Nowhere was this better demonstrated than in the former Soviet Union. Russia is intrinsically weaker than the United States, but military power is not an abstract relationship. Judging military power is a question of which side can bring more power to bear in a certain place at a certain time. In a country like Georgia this past summer, Russian power was greater than American power — and this is now true throughout the Russian periphery. Moscow is now free to reshape the former Soviet Union without fear of meaningful American intervention. This fact is obvious to all of these countries, and it conditions their responses.

One can argue that the U.S. invasion of Iraq was justified, and one can also argue that the war was executed as effectively as possible. But Bush nailed the indisputable problem: the war is still not over. The fact that the war has taken too long from a global perspective is, to us, the key issue that is rarely discussed. It is not the situation on the ground in Iraq that frames the question of the war; it is the war’s effect on American strategic power around the world.

Because the Iraq war has lasted as long as it has, it has opened doors for other countries – doors that would have been closed had it been possible to end the war more quickly. The fact that the Iraq war is still continuing, and that it likely will last at least another 18 months, has created strategic consequences — independent of the question of the wisdom of the war in the first place. Even if the Iraq war were to end with a U.S. victory tomorrow, it nevertheless has brought with it profound strategic costs.
28421  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Environmental issues on: December 15, 2008, 10:36:12 AM
Ummm, , , , I think I have it right.  Gore's theory is convenient to liberal fascism's designs for increased state power.   The facts are in its way.  Yes?
28422  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Washington: Last words on: December 15, 2008, 10:32:44 AM
"'Tis well."

--George Washington, last words, 14 December 1799
28423  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Iran on: December 15, 2008, 03:01:32 AM
Iran's universities are again the scene of battles over the country's future. In the digital age, we're able to take a better peek inside.

Footage of recent student protests in Tehran, Shiraz and Hamedan are all over the Internet. In particular, one clip of a student dressing down a government dignitary reveals a remarkable willingness to defy the regime. On the video, a young man at Shiraz University rises to address the visiting speaker of parliament and former nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani. "I'm not going to ask you a question because I don't accept you as the legitimate speaker or the parliament as legitimate," the student says, citing the elimination of opposition candidates in the previous parliamentary election.

Watch the Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syMT93tETME

Courtesy of YouTube.Sitting on stage before a hundred or so students, Mr. Larijani looks taken aback and says nothing. "Let me tell you what is weighing heavily on my heart," the student continues. "I hate three things. One, I hate [President] Mahmoud Ahmadinejad."

Applause erupts -- in itself an act of defiance, since the mullahs consider clapping, along with neckties, a Western habit. "Two, I hate him for his hypocrisy." At this point, some pro-regime students -- whom reports link to the government-sanctioned Basij organization, the mullahs' brown shirts -- interrupt with chants and heckles. Amid the mayhem, the video ends. We don't know the young man's name or what happened to him after this October 9 encounter. Some Iranians speculate he was arrested; others say he went into hiding.

Since the last student uprising was crushed six years ago, Iran has seen sporadic but growing resistance to the regime -- most recently at the "Student Day" rallies on December 6 that commemorate the 1953 killing of three demonstrators by the Shah's army. The Shiraz student calls to mind the lone man, that "unknown rebel," who stood up to Chinese tanks during the Tiananmen protests. President-elect Obama says the U.S. should engage Iran. As one of our friends points out, "He has a choice: Engage with what Larijani represents, or engage with the generation of that student."
28424  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / WSJ: Disarming ourselves on: December 15, 2008, 02:58:52 AM
Iraq, Afghanistan and Guantanamo get more press, but among the most urgent national security challenges facing President-elect Obama is what to do about America's stockpile of aging nuclear weapons. No less an authority than Secretary of Defense Robert Gates calls the situation "bleak" and is urging immediate modernization.

 
Department of Defense
Robert Gates.
On the campaign trail, Mr. Gates's new boss appeared to take a different view. Candidate Obama said he "seeks a world without nuclear weapons" and vowed to make "the goal of eliminating all nuclear weapons a central element in our nuclear policy." His woolly words have given a boost to the world disarmament movement, including last week's launch of Global Zero, the effort by Richard Branson and Queen Noor to eliminate nuclear weapons in 25 years. Naturally, they want to start with cuts in the U.S. arsenal.

But the reality of power has a way of focusing those charged with defending the U.S., and Mr. Obama will soon have to decide to modernize America's nuclear deterrent or let it continue to deteriorate. Every U.S. warhead is more than 20 years old, with some dating to the 1960s. The last test was 1992, when the U.S. adopted a unilateral test moratorium and since relied on computer modeling. Meanwhile, engineers and scientists with experience designing and building nuclear weapons are retiring or dying, and young Ph.D.s have little incentive to enter a field where innovation is taboo. The U.S. has zero production capability, beyond a few weapons in a lab.

Background Reading
 

COMMENTARY

A World Free of Nuclear Weapons (01/04/07)
– George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam NunnToward a Nuclear-Free World (01/15/08)
– George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger and Sam Nunn

THE WEEKEND INTERVIEW

Gen. Kevin Chilton: Sounding the Nuclear Alarm (11/22/08)
– Melanie KirkpatrickWe're told Mr. Gates's alarm will be echoed soon in a report by the Congressionally mandated commission charged with reviewing the role of nuclear weapons and the overall U.S. strategic posture. The commission's chairman is William Perry, a former Clinton Defense Secretary and a close Obama adviser. Mr. Perry is also one of the "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse," the nickname given to him, George Shultz, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn for an op-ed published in these pages last year offering a blueprint for ridding the world of nuclear weapons.

The commission's interim report is due out any day now, and the advance word is that Mr. Perry has come back to Earth. We're told the report's central finding is that the U.S. will need a nuclear deterrent for the indefinite future. A deterrent is credible, the report further notes, only if enemies believe it will work. That means modernization.

That logic ought to be obvious, but it escapes many in Congress who have stymied the Bush Administration's efforts to modernize. Britain, France, Russia and China are all updating their nuclear forces, but Mr. Bush couldn't even get Congress this year to fund so much as R&D for the Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) program. Senator Dianne Feinstein dismissed the RRW, saying "the Bush Administration's goal was to reopen the nuclear door."

In today's Opinion Journal
 

REVIEW & OUTLOOK

Madoff and MarketsDisarming OurselvesIran's YouTube Generation

TODAY'S COLUMNISTS

The Americas: Innocents Die in the Drug War
– Mary Anastasia O'GradyInformation Age: Internet Attacks Are a Real and Growing Problem
– L. Gordon Crovitz

COMMENTARY

Bush Blinks on the Auto Bailout
– Paul IngrassiaThe Fed Still Has Plenty of Ammunition
– Frederic S. MishkinIt's Time to Junk the Electoral College
– Jonathan SorosIn the House, similar damage has been done by Ellen Tauscher, chairman of the subcommittee on strategic weapons. Ms. Tauscher, whose California district includes the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, likes to talk about a strong nuclear deterrent while bragging about killing the RRW. She also wants to revive the unenforceable Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which the Senate rejected in 1999. Let's hope the Perry report helps with her nuclear re-education.

If Congress isn't paying attention, U.S. allies are. The U.S. provides a nuclear umbrella for 30-plus countries, including several -- Japan, Germany and South Korea, for example -- capable of developing their own nuclear weapons. If they lose confidence in Washington's ability to protect them, the Perry report notes, they'll kick off a new nuclear arms race that will spread world-wide.

In a speech this fall, Mr. Gates said "there is no way we can maintain a credible deterrent" without "resorting to testing" or "pursuing a modernization program." General Kevin Chilton, the four-star in charge of U.S. strategic forces, has also spent the past year making the case for modernization. "The time to act is now," he told a Washington audience this month.

The aging U.S. nuclear arsenal is an urgent worry. A world free of nuclear weapons is a worthy goal, shared by many Presidents, including Ronald Reagan. Until that day arrives, no U.S. President can afford to let our nuclear deterrent erode.

 
28425  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / WSJ: Internet Attacks on: December 15, 2008, 02:50:49 AM
In the 1960s, the Pentagon looked for a secure way to keep its lines of communication going in the event of all-out war. The interlinked packet networks of computers became the Internet. Fast-forward to today, and that system of open protocols brings the enormous benefits of the Web to civilian life. But the Web has also become an open field for cyber warriors seeking to harm the U.S.

We're only now realizing that many of these attacks have happened, as evidence mounts that outsiders accessed sensitive government networks and other databases. A report based on closed-door information about cyber attacks reached a sobering conclusion: Foreign governments and terrorist groups are focused on cyber offensives in a "battle we are losing."

Last week's Center for Strategic and International Studies report disclosed that the departments of Defense, State, Homeland Security and Commerce all have had intrusions by unknown foreign entities. The Pentagon's computers are probed "hundreds of thousands of times each day." An official at the State Department says terabytes of its information have been compromised. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security had to go offline for several months. NASA has stopped using email before shuttle launches. Jihadist hackers are trying to confuse military computers into mistaking the identities of friendly and unfriendly forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The quasigovernmental commission revealing these cyber attacks is made up of private-sector information executives, military and intelligence officials, and two members of Congress. The study found that no department knew the extent of damage done to other departments. The extent of the harm is not known.

"The organization of the federal government, which dates to the 1930s or earlier, is part of the reason we are vulnerable," says the report. "Our industrial-age organization makes a cyber-dependent government vulnerable and inefficient. A collection of hierarchical 'stovepipes' is easier to attack and harder to defend because security programs are not of equal strength (the weakest link compromises all) and stovepiped defenders cannot appreciate the scope of, and respond well to, a multiagency attack."

As the first to build out an Internet grid, the U.S. is more vulnerable than countries that have built their infrastructure later. China, for example, constructed its Internet much later, on a more secure set of protocols. "Many Americans believe that our nation still leads in cyberspace, just as many Americans in 1957 believed that the U.S. led in space until a Soviet satellite appeared over their heads," the study says.

It's telling that the U.S. doesn't have a publicly stated doctrine on cyber defense that warns enemies and commits to taking action in response. Likening today's issues to the Cold War, the report says there should be clear rules about who will be punished how for what. It's in the nature of cyber attacks that it's hard to know exactly who's responsible, but some response must be made. "These uncertainties limit the value of deterrence for cybersecurity," the report says. "The deterrent effect of an unknown doctrine is quite limited."

In today's Opinion Journal
 

REVIEW & OUTLOOK

Madoff and MarketsDisarming OurselvesIran's YouTube Generation

TODAY'S COLUMNISTS

The Americas: Innocents Die in the Drug War
– Mary Anastasia O'GradyInformation Age: Internet Attacks Are a Real and Growing Problem
– L. Gordon Crovitz

COMMENTARY

Bush Blinks on the Auto Bailout
– Paul IngrassiaThe Fed Still Has Plenty of Ammunition
– Frederic S. MishkinIt's Time to Junk the Electoral College
– Jonathan SorosOne problem is that Russia and China are the main suspects, but the U.S. defense establishment hesitates to say so too loudly. It's true that few cyber attackers are ever clearly identified. No one knows for sure who brought down the Internet in Estonia in 2007, when Moscow was outraged when a Soviet-era war memorial was relocated in Tallinn. Or who was behind the cyber attacks that virtually shut down government communications and financial transactions in the former Soviet republic of Georgia earlier this year. Likewise, many foreign visitors had their PCs and BlackBerrys compromised during the Olympics in Beijing, where cybersnooping equipment is widely available.

Data are lost, communications are compromised, and "denial of service" attacks bring down selected Web sites and national networks. Supposedly confidential corporate information, the report warns, is almost certainly being hacked. As more individuals and companies rely on "cloud computing" -- storing information and services such as email remotely on supposedly secure servers -- foreign intelligence agencies and commercial snoops may have access.

A former official at Darpa, the Pentagon research agency that launched the Web, testified to Congress last year that a major cyber attack on the U.S. could knock out electricity, banking and digital-based communications. Americans would be left rooting around for food and water, trading with one another for firewood (presumably not on eBay). Even if end-of-the-world visions are overdone, it's past time to assess risks and justify countermeasures.

The report has recommendations for the Obama administration, including a new government structure for cyber protection and working more closely with the private sector on security research. The broader point is that it's about time that we knew the extent of the cyberwarring against us. The first step to fighting back is to admit that there's a fight on.

Write to informationage@wsj.com
28426  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Environmental issues on: December 15, 2008, 02:37:48 AM
Let not the facts get in the way of a convenient theory tongue
28427  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Evolutionary biology/psychology on: December 15, 2008, 02:35:35 AM
In contrast to the notions of this article are the writings of Austrian ethnologist (study of animals) and Nobel Laureate Konrad Lorenz who, like psychologist Carl Jung and Sandhurst military historian John Keegan (History of War) point out that over time War has become evermore efficient in its brutality.  Working from memory, the deaths of the American Civil War exceeded what went before, yet was exceeded by the trench warfare of WW1, then the 20 million or so killed by Stalin and the tens of millions killed by Mao, then WW2 (including the use of nuclear weapons etc.)

Against the long term trend, it is risky to see the last few decades as a historical turning point.  If could be, but there's plenty to suggest otherwise as well.
28428  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Bush: "It was a size 10 shoe" on: December 14, 2008, 06:58:12 PM
President Bush shows some good reflexes in dealing with cranky reporter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duLds-TZMGw
28429  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Gender issues thread on: December 14, 2008, 02:49:02 PM
Rachel:

May I suggest taking this over to the Evolutionary Psychology/Biology thread on the SCE forum?  Once there I look forward to raising Konrad Lorenz's analysis of this issue (Jung too) -- which is completely to the contrary.  He held that the 20th Century was the most brutal in human history.

TIA,
Marc

PS:  Wright's book on "Non-Zero Sum" is brilliant.
28430  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Obama Phenomena on: December 14, 2008, 02:42:48 PM
I'm not getting the motive to be disingenuous here , , , huh
28431  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: The Power of Word on: December 14, 2008, 02:40:42 PM
Thank you for continuing my education once again Rachel.

This in particular caught my attention:

"The Jewish people (Jewish tradition has it that all Jewish souls were at Sinai) agreed to obey the Torah before they heard it or understood it."

VERY interesting.
28432  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / NYT: Safe at hom on: December 14, 2008, 10:37:06 AM
FWIW:

By PETER BERGEN
Published: December 13, 2008
Washington


A FEW days before the presidential election, the director of national intelligence, Mike McConnell, told a group of intelligence officials that the new administration could well be tested by a terrorist attack on the homeland in its first year in office. “The World Trade Center was attacked in the first year of President Clinton, and the second attack was in the first year of President Bush,” he said.

President-elect Barack Obama made a similar observation when he told “60 Minutes” that it was important to get a national security team in place “because transition periods are potentially times of vulnerability to a terrorist attack.” During the campaign, Joe Biden warned that “it will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy.”

Should we be worried? In fact, the probability of a Qaeda attack on the United States is vanishingly small, for the same reasons that for the past seven years the terrorist group has not been able to carry out one.

President Bush and his supporters have often ascribed the absence of a Qaeda attack on the United States to the Iraq war, which supposedly acted as “flypaper” for jihadist terrorists, so instead of fighting them in Boston, America has fought them in Baghdad. Other commentators have said that Al Qaeda is simply biding its time to equal or top 9/11.

The real reasons are more prosaic. First, the American Muslim community has rejected the Qaeda ideological virus. American Muslims have instead overwhelmingly signed up for the American Dream, enjoying higher incomes and educational levels than the average.

Second, though it is hard to prove negatives, there appear to be no Qaeda sleeper cells in the United States. If they do exist, they are so asleep they are comatose. True, in 2003, the F.B.I. arrested Iyman Faris, an Ohio trucker who met with Qaeda leaders in Pakistan after 9/11 and then had a plot to demolish the Brooklyn Bridge with a pair of blowtorches, a deed akin to trying to blow up the Statue of Liberty with a firecracker. But he is an exceptional case. Two years after his arrest, a leaked F.B.I. report concluded, “To date, we have not identified any true ‘sleeper’ agents in the U.S.”

Third, when jihadist terrorists have attacked the United States, they have arrived from outside the country, something that is much harder to do now. The 19 hijackers of 9/11 all came from elsewhere. Ramzi Yousef, the mastermind of the 1993 Trade Center bombing, flew to New York from Pakistan. Today’s no-fly list and other protective measures make entering the country much more difficult.

Fourth, the Bush administration has made Americans safer with measures like the establishment of the National Counterterrorism Center, where officials from different branches of government share information and act on terrorist threats. As a result of such measures, scores of terrorism cases have been aggressively investigated in the United States. But despite the billions of dollars invested in all these efforts and the thousands of men and women who get up every day to hunt for terrorists, the resulting cases have almost never involved concrete terrorist plots or acts.

Of the so-called terrorism cases since 9/11, many have revolved around charges of “material support” for a terrorist group, a vague concept that can encompass almost any dealings with organizations that have at one point engaged in terrorism. And in the cases where a terrorist plot has been alleged, the plans have been more aspirational than realistic.

If Al Qaeda can’t get people into the country, doesn’t have sleeper cells here and is unable to garner support from the American Muslim community, then how does it pull off an attack in the United States? While a small-bore attack may be organized by a Qaeda wannabe at some point, a catastrophic mass-casualty assault anything along the lines of 9/11 is no longer plausible.

This is not to say Al Qaeda is no longer a threat to our interests. It has of course regenerated itself on Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan since 9/11, and as the 2005 attacks on the London subways and the foiled 2006 plot to bring down airliners leaving Heathrow Airport showed, it remains a grave danger to Britain.

In addition, Al Qaeda’s inability to attack the American homeland for the foreseeable future does not then mean that it can’t kill large numbers of American living overseas. If the 2006 “planes plot” had succeeded, British prosecutors say, as many as 1,500 passengers would have died, many of them Americans.

The incoming Obama administration has much to deal with, between managing two wars and the implosion of the financial system and car industry. But the likelihood of a terrorist attack on the United States in its early stages by Al Qaeda is close to zero.

Peter Bergen is a senior fellow at the New America Foundation and the author of “The Osama bin Laden I Know.”
28433  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Gender issues thread on: December 14, 2008, 10:17:02 AM
Though some may roll their eyes at her name, I think Dr. Laura Schlessinger is on sound ground when she says that at least one parent should be dedicated to the home and the children and that that one parent is usually the mother.    I think a lot of the societal breakdown that we have seen in recent decades is due to children being raised by daycare, nannies, and TV instead of loving mothers.
28434  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: India and India-Pak on: December 14, 2008, 10:11:33 AM
When the majority of the Muslim world decides that the struggle is between civilization and barbarism instead of between the West and Islam, then the war can be won.
28435  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Gender issues thread on: December 14, 2008, 09:37:40 AM
Rachel:

I've been meaning to ask you about these words of yours:

"Women joined the work force not because of  feminism but because of economic necessity.  I would credit feminism for  encouraging woman to be doctors as well as nurses but not for getting them a job outside the home in the first place."

If I understand you correctly, you are saying that given a choice, most women would rather have their work be their homes and their families.  I'm OK with the concept, but am more than a little surprised to here it come from you. cheesy

"Capitalism encourages people to wait before having a family."

In that the dynamic we discuss was present in spades in the Russian population of the Soviet Empire, I'd quibble with the word "capitalism" and would suggest using "economically developed" instead.
28436  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Re: Agradecimiento de cada dia on: December 14, 2008, 01:27:44 AM
Agradezco un buen entrenamiento de Kali Tudo esparring hoy despues de mi clase.  Sigo explorando nueva materia.
28437  DBMA Martial Arts Forum / Martial Arts Topics / Re: Daily Expression of Gratitude on: December 14, 2008, 12:02:36 AM
For my extra time with my children while my wife is out of town.
28438  DBMA Martial Arts Forum / Martial Arts Topics / Re: April 2009 US Gathering on: December 13, 2008, 11:57:40 PM
The corral is no longer owned by the same person.  I'm playing phone tage with my brother to clarify the situation, and have asked if we can use the dirt area between his house and the orange grove as a Plan B.

28439  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Indians capture 23 pirates on: December 13, 2008, 01:20:13 PM
Indian navy captures 23 pirates
Pirates threatened a merchant vessel in the Gulf of Aden, navy says
The Associated Press
updated 9:45 a.m. PT, Sat., Dec. 13, 2008

NEW DELHI - The Indian navy captured 23 pirates who threatened a merchant vessel Saturday in the lawless waters of the Gulf of Aden, where dozens of ships have come under attack by gunmen in recent months.

An Indian navy ship, the INS Mysore, was escorting merchant ships in the region near Somalia when it received a distress call from seamen on board the MV Gibe, who said they were being attacked by two boats.

The distress call said the pirates were firing as their boats closed in on the Gibe, according to a statement from the Indian government. The pirate boats attempted to escape when they saw the Mysore and its helicopter, but were boarded by Indian marine commandos, the statement said.

The pirates had "a substantial cache of arms and equipment," including seven AK-47 assault rifles, three machine guns, a rocket-propelled grenade launcher and other weapons, the statement said. They also found a GPS receiver and other equipment.

The pirates were from Somalia and Yemen, two countries on the coast of the Gulf of Aden.

The Gibe was flying an Ethiopian flag, the statement said, but there was no further information about the ship.

Last month, India's navy drew criticism after sinking a Thai fishing trawler that had been commandeered hours earlier by pirates. At least one Thai crew member was killed in the attack, which the Indian navy had originally announced by saying it had sunk a pirate "mother ship." The Indian navy defended its actions, saying it had fired in self-defense.

Somali pirates have become increasingly brazen, and recently seized a Saudi supertanker loaded with $100 million of crude oil. Many of the vessels are taken to pirate-controlled regions in Somalia, where they are held for ransom.

It was not immediately clear what would happen to the pirates captured by the Indians, or where they would be taken. The statement said only that the prisoners and their weapons would be "handed over to appropriate authorities ashore."

'All necessary measures'
Most foreign navies patrolling the Somali coast have been reluctant to detain suspects because of uncertainties over where they would face trial, since Somalia has no effective central government or legal system.

An estimated 1,500 pirates are based in Somalia's semiautonomous Puntland region, raking in millions of dollars.


Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will present a draft Security Council resolution next week asking the United Nations to authorize "all necessary measures" against piracy from Somalia.

But on Friday, the commander of the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet expressed doubt about the wisdom of launching attacks against Somali pirates on land, as the draft proposes.

U.S. Vice Adm. Bill Gortney told reporters that it is difficult to identify pirates, and the potential for killing innocent civilians "cannot be overestimated."
28440  DBMA Martial Arts Forum / Martial Arts Topics / Re: We the unorganized militia on: December 13, 2008, 01:09:14 AM
And a second related piece:

1). On what to do - Some folks think we are advocating running into the fight screaming with a knife in one hand and a snubby in the other. I'm not sure where that comes from, as it has never been suggested and is quite silly when you think about it.

Still, an aggressive counter attack at the outset of the incident seems to be a better option than hiding and hoping to go undetected once the bad guys have consolidated their forces. I do think that if you are unarmed (why would anyone do that today?), your options are very limited.

Additionally, if you are not at the point of contact, going to the fight may not be smart as you don't have any more info other than shots have been fired.
Going out in a blaze of glory is not on anyone's "to do" list here - at least I don't think so. But hiding helplessly and calling for help is not on it either.

If you can't do anything about the event, I am all for getting the “foxtrot” out of dodge. As far as evidence gathering - or getting intel out - or helping the police identify the bad guys, etc. Why is that your problem?

2). If you are armed (as well you should be), and know what is happening beyond a shadow of a doubt (its not the DEA in a firefight with a drug dealer that you are now intervening in), and in a position to shoot the bad guys - well - what do you think you should do?

911? Nope - not for me. Someone else can do that.
Call someone else ? Not at that point - not for me.

I am either engaging, or getting out. Once I am out, I may call, but when in the fire, you either fight, fly, or fry.

3). Before considering engaging the bad guys, consider who is with you. For example, endangering your family to save someone else may be seen by some as the epitome of selflessness, but I see it as the epitome of stupidity. I got a chance to speak with a Deputy whose daughter was killed by an armed robber because he chose to put another’s property and safety above that of his own family. Bad choice - very bad choice.

If I am in a Mumbai-esque situation with them, my job is to use my skills to get them out. Those who did not prepare are on their own until I get them to, what I consider, safety. If fifty unarmed peacenik liberals get slaughtered because I chose the safety of my tribe and family first, oh well - they made their bed, now they can bleed in it.

Now, having said that, if any tangos are in your way as you egress, you bet you should shoot your exit right through them. If I am alone, I may do something different, but family and tribe comes before anyone and anything else…so should yours.

4). If I am at ground zero, when the bad guys begin shooting, and I am alone, I will attack. Not because it is the best thing to do, but because it is the only thing to do. What other option do you have? I suggest you do likewise. And understand the tactical implications of "ATTACK". It doesn't mean running into their midst with a knife in one hand and a Glock in the other screaming “Wolverines”. If that is what you think attacking means- dude! - you need to come to class and get updated. How many times have I made an issue of shooting from long range in the Terrorist Interdiction Course?? Attack means you get your sights on the terrorist (his head if possible) and you smoke him in cold blood. This is vastly different from a typical civilian CCW self-defense shooting. There is no need for warning - no requirement to do anything, nor any chance given for surrender.

Perhaps AMBUSH is a better word.

5). I do not see the advantage in hunkering down and allowing the event to consolidate itself while you, the good witness, gather and pass information. That may be what the authorities want you to do as it benefits their mission. But YOUR mission is different.

I see what goes on in the Al Qaeda Training Video, and what has taken place in nearly every event where there have been organized terrorist active shooters. They have a plan and once they are able to consolidate their forces your options get very very limited.

An example - they know you are hiding in a covered area - and they will notice once they either stumble upon you in their security sweeps, or when you fire at one of them. They order you to come out. You tell them to go suck bacon. They grab a little girl and blow her brains out right there in front of you and her mother. As she falls, they grab another one. The mother is no longer screaming as she has been butt stroked into unconsciousness. Then they tell you again to come out as they grab up her sister and put the muzzle of an AK in her mouth. This is right out of their play books.


6). Some guys are assuming the bad guys will be using AKs. I think in Mumbai they used AKs because that was what they could get in Pakistan. One of my contacts - a man who should know, advises the rifles they used were Pakistani military AKs. If G3s would have been available, they may have used those.

Some think the AK will always mark you with the image of “the bad guy”. I think having ANY rifle in your hands may do that in these cases. Some interesting things in this area. I have asked several police guys about this and the truth is they can't readily distinguish between a FAL and an SKS. A rifle is a rifle and a pistol is a pistol. That is usually as far as it gets.

Another case in point – The Beltway terrorists Malvo and Mohammed, they used an AR-15.

Interestingly enough, there has been a fair bit of off the schedule training of cops with AKs. Agencies that allow their people to buy their own stuff are seeing more and more AKs in service. Specially the Arsenal SLRs in 223.

7). If the event is a typical psycho-lone gunman type thing like Trolley Square, Tacoma Mall, et al, you can expect a reasonably quick police response (still in the realm of several minutes at best). So the idea of picking up one of the bad guy’s rifles may not be either needed, nor wise. If you find yourself in this, you will be fighting with your pistol, not with the bad guy’s rifle, nor your personal rifle. Time to go get it, you will not have.


In a Mumbai/Beslan type event you can bet the tangos will have set up something to delay the police. Whether it is explosives, or outside shooters (which you may need to deal with as you egress anyway), or something. In such an event, picking up the bad guy’s weapons is an option. An option, but not one without risks. It gives you a better capability to engage and drop tangos than your CCW pistol, but in these events, anyone with a rifle may still be mistaken as a bad guy.

Cool. I have heard a great deal of discussion about whether Mumbai was a practice run or not. This attitude is usually seen in very US-centric thinkers. Not everything that happens around the world has anything to do with us. This was as much a practice run as Pearl Harbor was a practice run for the invasion of the Philippines.

Terror is seen as a tool by the terrorists, and not usually as an end in itself. There was a reason for Beslan, The Twin Towers, Madrid, etc. Terror creates fear and the realization that the authority in power cannot protect anyone. This will either bring a solidarity against the evil, as has been seen in Israel, or the desire to appease the evil, as has been seen in Europe. Terror hopes to appeal to that appeasement mentality who wants to give in to the terrorist so the terror will stop.

It also appeals to man's natural hatred. In this case, it appeals to the Indians who will say - "See what happens when we make friends with Americans and Jews".
It will also appeal to those who will say, "See you cannot trust Pakistan. Pakistan is and always has been, our enemy".

The fomenting of those sentiments and their cultivation and development, which may be strategically seen as an advantage by the terrorist masterminds, is what Mumbai was about.

Still, one cannot ignore that many victims there did not give a flying fornication about US Foreign Policy, India's Alliances, or Islam's Expansion, but they were still tortured and killed, specially if they were Jews or Americans.

Gabe Suarez
28441  DBMA Martial Arts Forum / Martial Arts Topics / To serve & defend our Constitution; we the unorganized militia; citizenship on: December 13, 2008, 01:05:05 AM
Woof All:

Inmy humble opinion there is an American Creed-- that of our Founding Fathers as expressed in the Declaration of Independence, the Federalist Papers, and our Constitution.

One are of particular interest to us (use the search funcion for the "Poltics & Religion" forum) is that which has to do with the   Second Amendment and Section 311 Title 10 (see the John Lott article "The Unorganized Militia" on the Flight 93 Memorial page).  Its why we have a thread titled "The Unorganized Militia" on the P&R forum!

Q:  So why have a thread of the same name here?  

A:  This one is to discuss where the rubber meets the road.

We kick things off with a piece by Gabe Suarez:
===================================
There has been a great deal of discussion about what to carry for an event like Mumbai. Gents, let's think about this. If you happen to be caught up in this at its conclusion, facing a dozen riflemen working together as a unit, and you with your Kel-Tec, what do you think your realistic chances of success are? Being real is not being defeatist, but come on.

Now, at the outset of the event, where there may be only one or two adversaries, it gets a little better in terms of odds. But only a little. You have one advantage and that is the advantage of surprise and one target. They, on the other hand have many avenues of danger to cover, only one which is yours. This will be a rapidly moving fluid situation.

One man was saying that using a cell phone to photograph the bad guys would be good. Pictures of the bad guys on your cell phone? Come on....seriously? If you have the ability to take their picture, you also have the ability to take their life, or GTFOT (get the f*** out of there) so get out of the evidence collecting mindset.

Number two, some guys were discussing carrying a special bag with them with all manner of weapons and gear to facilitate such a fight. Keeping a Bug Out Bag in the office or in the car is a wise move, but I doubt many of us are going to walk around fully kitted out all the time, so I think this will be limited to what you have on your person. Know what....you'll carry your tango bag everywhere until you get sick of it and leave it in the car one day and then, that will be the day and you will fight with what you have on your person anyway.

Those of you with little bitty guns (snubbies and Glock 27s and such), I suggest you rethink your weapon choices. I can run a mini-Glock pretty good, but not as good as a full sized gun. What do I carry? A Glock 22 when at home and a Glock 17 when away. 15 rounds or 17 rounds respectively.

Yes, the bigger gun is harder to hide. Yes, I have to choose my clothing more carefully. Yes, its heavier. All of those things they tell you are true. But when you NEED THE MOTHER F'ING GUN NOW, those uber-comfortable pocket chain guns so popular with the CCW crowd will never allow you to fight as well as a full-sized gun.

Calibers - Please! I will take a 40 or a 9mm over a 45 any day of the week for the simple fact of the matter that I can fight much longer with one than I can with a seven or eight shot weapon. It may have been a caliber edge in 1976 when the only thing going was marginal hollow point ammo, but not today bwana. Ask any of those metro-sexual gun instructors if they want to get shot in the face with my "45 set on stun".
Magazine capacity is not an asset, it is a blessing.

Engagement Dynamics - Short range, run and gun, point shooting is an essential skill and must be prioritized for the urban ambush gunfight. However, for anti-terrorist activity, if you find yourself just outside or arm's length with a doped up, combat-trained AK-armed tango, you have already stepped into it. You can still fight, but wouldn't it be far better to be able to ice these monkeys from 25, 50 or even 100 yards?

Read the reports boys. There are folks who had an eye on the action from a distance. "If only I had a gun" was one of the Brit reporters said. The ability to hit out at these distances is not hard at all. But it must be learned and trained. And, your gear must support your ability to do it.

Those uber-court-proof heavy triggers promoted as essential by the lawyer-instructors are trash. Get rid of them. You don't need a hair trigger on your pistol, but you do need a manageable trigger. My Glocks for example all use the standard 5# connector set up and give me a crisp release that is conducive to accuracy. You don't need the 3# target connector, but good heavens don't add one of the abominable New York triggers.

Those big fat close range sights? If you can hit at 100 yards with them, drive on. I cannot, so I use sharply defined black iron sights like the Heines, and the Trijicons. Those of you with eye issues that can't use the irons well enough, invest in one of the Docter red dot sights. Yep....a red dot sight on your pistol. It is small enough to carry around and bright enough that even Mr. Magoo can hit at 100 meters with it.

Another thing - Usually after one of those events I will hear "By golly if I had been there I would have pulled out my custom model 29 and..." That is usually spoken by a guy who hasn't done any physical training since high school, would have a heart attack if he had to run ten feet to cover, and is so out of condition he could not fight his way out of a Sierra Club Tea Party In San Francisco. I'm not trying to offend anyone here but its not just about marksmanship and your ammo choices. If you are already a good shot, you need to get away from the range and into the gym or the street and train your out of shape shooter's body so you will be able to fight not just shoot.

And finally, without which all else is wasted, develop the will to kill. It is hard for some to sneak up on a man and shoot him in the back of the head unannounced, regardless of what the man has done, or is about to do. You need to get over that if you want to be a player at this level. it is not about capturing, or about bringing to justice, or about "stopping the action". it is about getting the drop on a terrorist from a distance, unseen and undetected, putting your sights on his ear, controlling your heartbeat, and then pressing that trigger without a moment's hesitation.

Gabe Suarez

One Source Tactical
Suarez International USA


28442  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Stratfor: The significance of pirates on: December 13, 2008, 12:37:47 AM
   
Geopolitical Diary: The Significance of Pirates
December 12, 2008

High-level discussions began Thursday over a U.S.-sponsored resolution at the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) that seeks to strengthen the international response to piracy in waters off the coast of Somalia. The new resolution -— which comes just a week after the UNSC passed another U.S.-penned resolution, extending the current U.N. approach to Somali piracy by another year —- would authorize foreign countries to send military assets ashore into Somalia and into Somali airspace in pursuit of pirates.

This would significantly intensify the international fight against Somalia-based pirates, who are now in possession of some 17 major ships. Thus far, international law has authorized foreign warships to invade Somali territorial waters in counter-piracy operations, but their activity has been confined to maritime interdictions. The U.S. push for broader authority is meant to strike at the pirates in Puntland, the lawless part of Somalia where they find safe haven.

The slow expansion of piracy off the Horn of Africa increasingly has dominated headlines in recent years, but on a strategic level it has been little more than a nuisance for global commerce. After the capture of one supertanker from Saudi Arabia, major oil shipments from the Middle East to the West began steering an extremely wide berth around Somalia.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy, which is the de facto guarantor of worldwide maritime shipping security, has plenty of bandwidth to address any real challenges to freedom the of seas. Washington has been taking its time with the piracy issue politically, and slowly working to build an international consensus through the UNSC, because Somali piracy has not yet reached the point that it poses a strategic threat to U.S. interests. The request for further U.N. authorization means not that Washington is punting the issue, but rather that it is starting to consider taking on piracy more forcefully.

The deeper meaning of the piracy issue is that it runs up against the underlying U.S. interest in control of the seas: the foundation of U.S. global military dominance, and in turn the foundation of U.S. global economic dominance. Combating maritime piracy has been a perennial concern of the United States, and is in essence the cornerstone of U.S. naval policy.

Throughout its existence, the United States has depended on maritime commerce for its survival. Even the early European colonies in North America were at first heavily dependent on seaborne lines of communication to Europe, and over time the colonies came to rely heavily on commercial maritime trade, which was protected from piracy by the European navies. In 1783, however, when the American Revolutionary War officially ended with the Treaty of Paris, the U.S. government suddenly became responsible for the safety and protection of its own merchant traffic overseas.

The United States, with its Continental Navy in the process of being disbanded and the new government deep in war-related debt, could not protect its interests abroad and was forced to pay annual tribute and occasional ransoms to the “Barbary” states of Algiers, Tripoli and Tunis -— North African regencies of the Ottoman Empire that had long extorted payments from ocean-going powers through the threat of piracy. It was not until the turn of the 19th century that the reconstituted U.S. Navy was equipped with its first frigates. When tribute was demanded of President Thomas Jefferson’s new administration in 1801, he dispatched the Navy to protect U.S. commercial interests on the other side of the Atlantic. What followed was a series of naval engagements and the first U.S. expeditionary assault on foreign soil: the Battle of Derne in Tripoli, which the United States won and which was the decisive action in the First Barbary War.

U.S. interest in freedom of the seas —- and the U.S. Navy’s ability to protect that interest -— would only continue to grow. The core American imperative of ensuring the free flow of traffic on the high seas was a key factor in the War of 1812, as a Britain engaged in the Napoleonic wars forcefully impressed sailors aboard U.S.-flagged ships into Royal Navy service. And arguably one of the most important outcomes of World War II was that the United States achieved an effectively unchallenged hegemony over the world’s oceans — a hegemony only further solidified in subsequent decades.

The Somali pirates do not, at this point, pose a strategic threat to the U.S. interest in freedom of the seas — but the push to intensify operations against them shows that Washington wants to act against them before they have a chance to rise to that level.

 
28443  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Food Chain and Food Politics on: December 12, 2008, 11:04:29 PM
PJ O'Rourke had a very powerful chapter in his "Parliament of Whores" about the Dept. of Ag.    It would make sense to me to abolish the whole thing.
28444  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Los Asesinos de Habilidad Creciente on: December 12, 2008, 10:51:57 PM
En México, los Asesinos de Habilidad Creciente
Los Hits bien-coordinados del Cártel Muestran Sofisticación más grande
 
Un equipo forense examina la escena del asesinato de Huerta. Los asesinos despidieron 85 series en SUV de Huerta, lo golpeando 40 veces. No cerca vehículos fueron golpeados por balas perdidas.

Por Puesto de William
El Poste de Washington Servicio Extranjero
El viernes, el 12 de diciembre de 2008; Llame A16
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/11/AR2008121103540.html

CIUDAD JUAREZ, México -- El hit fue rápido, bravo, mortal. Jesús Huerta Yedra, un acusador federal primero aquí, fue gunned hacia abajo la semana pasada en un cruce ocupado 100 yardas de la frontera de EEUU en un asesinato de la coreografía precisa.

En la guerra caótica de droga de México, los ataques son ya no el trabajo de aficionados desesperados con objetivo malo. Cada vez más, las matanzas son llevadas a cabo por profesionales, a menudo encapuchado y enguantado, que atrapa sus objetivos en emboscadas coordinada, la huelga con potencia de fuego arrolladuro, y entonces se desaparece en la hora punta de tarde -- así como ellos hicieron en la matanza de Huerta.

Los asesinos pagados, conocido como sicarios, son prendidos raramente. Los funcionarios mexicanos dicen que las escuadras del comando probablemente viajan del estado para indicar, a través de un país donde el gobierno y sus fuerzas de seguridad dibujan alarmando conclusiones acerca del alcance y la habilidad de un enemigo apoyado por miles de millones de dólares en ganancias de droga.

"Ellos consiguen muy bueno en sus trabajos," dijo Hector Hawley Morelos, el coordinador del estado forense y el laboratorio de crimen aquí, donde criminólogos y pesquisidores han sido agobiados por más de 1.600 homicidios en Juarez este año. "Los asesinos muestran un nivel alto de sofisticación. Ellos han tenido la instrucción -- en algún lugar. Ellos parecen tener el conocimiento de policía procedimientos investigativos. Por ejemplo ellos no dejan huellas dactilares. Eso perturba muy".

Alejandro Pariente, el portavoz para el fiscal general en el estado de chihuahua, dijo, "Ellos son llamados crimen organizado para una razón muy buena. Porque ellos son organizados muy".

En Ciudad Juarez, una ciudad industrial dura a través del río del Paso de El, donde 42 personas han sido matadas en el la semana pasada, el depósito de cadáveres sirve como un aula cruel para el estudio de violencia de droga por la frontera.

En una entrevista la semana pasada, un pesquisidor ocupado en el laboratorio forense habló al realizar una autopsia. Una docena de muertos aguardaron exámenes finales, extendieron en mesas metálicas, su pebbled de cuerpos con hoyos gordos de bala, abre ojos que miran fijamente en bombillas fluorescentes. Los hombres todo fue clasificado finalmente como "organizó crimen" homicidios, que justifican la mayoría de muertes en Ciudad Juarez, la ciudad más violenta en México.


El lunes, Fiscal general federal Eduardo Medina Mora dijo que ha habido 5.376 matanzas relacionadas con la droga este año en México, el doble dura el número de año. Luego esa noche, Victor Hugo Moneda, que dirigió agencia investigativa de policía de México D.F., fue matado en una emboscada como él salía su coche en su casa en la capital. Los agresores, utilizando un coche y la motocicleta, despidieron 22 disparos, según custodiar.

En el depósito de cadáveres de Juarez, los tres congeladores con acceso directo son llenados a la capacidad de más de 90 cadáveres, amontonó piso al techo, a salir bolsas blancas con cremalleras. Después de que unos pocos meses, los que no sean identificados son enterrados en un campo en el cementerio de la ciudad en la orilla del desierto.

"Las pautas que nosotros a menudo vemos con homicidios organizados de crimen son armas de alto nivel, heridas de múltiplo, trauma extremo," dijo el Alma Rosa Padilla, un médico encargado de las análisis principal, que completa tantas como cinco autopsias llenas cada día. "Ellos no van al hospital".

Un EEUU policía anti droga, que habló en la condición del anonimato porque él trabaja en México, dijo, "El ejército mexicano ha tenido un problema con desertores. Así que tiene a la policía, inclusive unidades anti crimen especiales. Ellos ahora trabajan para el otro lado".

Más que una docena funcionarios mexicanos primeros de aplicación de la ley han sido retenidos recientemente para trabajar supuestamente para los cárteles de droga, inclusive Noé Ramírez Mandujano, el acusador anti droga, primero y anterior de la nación. El fue detenido el mes pasado en la sospecha de aceptar $450.000 a cambio de compartir la inteligencia con negociantes.
===============

En México, los Asesinos de Habilidad Creciente
 


Según información soltó el jueves por el Congreso mexicano, más de 18.000 soldados han desertado al ejército mexicano este año. En los últimos tres años, 177 miembros de unidades de especial-fuerzas han abandonado sus postes, y muchos fueron a trabajar para el crimen organizado.

Recientemente, chihuahua Gov. José Reyes Baeza dijo que pistoleros empleados que han sido detenidos confesaron que ellos llevaron a cabo ejecuciones para 1.000 pesos por la matanza, acerca de $75.

Las armas vierten sobre la frontera aquí de Tejas, comprado ilegalmente de pandillas de calle o legalmente en tiendas deportivas de bienes en Estados Unidos. Dure mes, el ejército mexicano hizo la toma más grande de armas ilegales de fusiles y militar-tipo en más de dos décadas, destapando una reserva de 540 rifles, 165 granadas y 500.000 cartuchos en una casa en Reynosa, justo a través de la frontera de McAllen, Tex.

Según funcionarios mexicanos, los rifles robados de la Beatitud de Fuerte, un poste de Ejército de EEUU en el Paso de El, acaba por en las calles de Juarez. En el laboratorio forense, el equipo de la balística sacó una docena de armas, inclusive AK-47s, AR-15s, M 16s y otros armamentos de militar-grado.

"Pienso que el gobierno es agobiado simplemente. Los casos entran cincos y decenas ahora, y son probablemente muy duro mantenerse al ritmo de," dijo Tony Payan, un experto en el comercio de droga y profesor en la Universidad de Tejas en el Paso de El. "El gobierno está en el defensivo. Los maleantes tienen la ventaja aquí. Ellos probablemente perfeccionan sus técnicas más rápido que el gobierno puede encontrar que los expertos o los recursos para combatirlos".

El asesinato de Huerta fue una huelga brava. El fue el acusador federal segundo-más alto en el estado. Recientemente, el abogado de 40 años de edad fue entregado el caso de mató a periodista Armando Rodríguez, un periodista de policía de veterano en periódico de El Diario que fue matado por un pistolero delante de su casa dura mes en Ciudad Juarez. Las razones detrás de la matanza de Huerta se quedan desconocido.

Cuándo investigador forense David García y su socio llegaron en su camioneta blanca 15 minutos después del disparar en la tarde de diciembre. 3, la policía municipal marcaba el perímetro de la escena de crimen con cinta amarilla y los primeros soldados llegaban a montar guardia.


La Sunny, cruce ancho de la Calle de Arizona y el Bulevar que Papa John Paul II linda con el Grande de Rio y es un camino de cinco-minuto de un principal puente en el Paso de El. Fácilmente visible a través del río fue una línea de piquete de vehículos de Patrulla de fronteras de EEUU.

Huerta cabalgaba en el asiento de pasajero de un nuevo Viaje de Regate de plata-coloró SUV con platos de Tejas, que había parado en una luz roja. El coche fue pasado a un secretario en la oficina del acusador, Marisela Esparza Granados. Cuándo García llegó, el astilló limpiaparabrisas en el vehículo todavía luchaban por operar.

El cruce alrededor del Regate fue ensuciado con esqueletos gastados. García y su socio, que llevan tablillas con sujetapapeles pero ningunas armas, fotografiaron metódicamente la escena y reunieron 85 cubiertas, todo en el calibre coherente con la cuenta algunos testigos policía dicha -- que dos hombres encapuchados de dos camionetas recogieron frente del Regate y fuego abierto con AK-47s.

Los criminólogos en el laboratorio forense fueron golpeados por varios detalles. Primero, ellos sospecharon que Huerta fue seguido por por lo menos uno, y quizás varios, persiguen vehículos, que habrían ayudado a los pistoleros se ponen en posición de tender una emboscada Huerta. Ellos supieron que el coche Huerta utilizaría y su ruta, los investigadores dijeron.

Segundo, los criminólogos fueron impresionados con la precisión, la velocidad y la audacia del ataque.

Cuándo se paró en el semáforo, el vehículo de Huerta fue rodeado por otros coches en un cruce llenado. Pero ningunos otros vehículos fueron golpeados por balas perdidas. Más tarde, Hawley, el coordinador de laboratorio, indicó la pauta apretada de pocking de disparo de fusil la parabrisas del SUV.

"Usted ve ellos golpean donde ellos apuntan. El fue el objetivo. No ella," Hawley dijo. Los asesinos concentraron su fuego directamente en Huerta, que no llevaba una chaleca antibalas. "Si ellos saben que ellos llevan una chaleca antibalas, ellos ignoran el pecho y disparan la cabeza," él agregó.

La autopsia reveló que Huerta había sido golpeado por lo menos 40 veces, la mayoría del en el pecho. El asiento del pasajero del SUV fue empapado con sangre. El secretario, Esparza, fue golpeado sólo tres veces, aunque una herida de cuello fue fatal.

En el laboratorio de crimen, las cubiertas de esqueleto fueron examinadas por el equipo de la balística y registrados. Las balas son casi siempre de Estados Unidos. Los asesinos no se fían de balas hechas en México, Hawley dijo, agregar, "Las balas norteamericanas son mejores".
28445  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Obama Phenomena on: December 12, 2008, 10:48:23 PM
GM:

Would you please also post your article about Capt Rozelle on the "Our troops in action" thread?

TIA,
Marc
28446  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Mexico-US matters on: December 12, 2008, 10:43:01 PM
In Mexico, Assassins of Increasing Skill
Well-Coordinated Cartel Hits Show Greater Sophistication
 
A forensics team examines the scene of Huerta's murder. Assassins fired 85 rounds at Huerta's SUV, hitting him 40 times. No nearby vehicles were hit by stray bullets.

By William Booth
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, December 12, 2008; Page A16
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/11/AR2008121103540.html

CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico -- The hit was fast, bold, lethal. Jesús Huerta Yedra, a top federal prosecutor here, was gunned down last week in a busy intersection 100 yards from the U.S. border in a murder of precise choreography.

In Mexico's chaotic drug war, attacks are no longer the work of desperate amateurs with bad aim. Increasingly, the killings are being carried out by professionals, often hooded and gloved, who trap their targets in coordinated ambushes, strike with overwhelming firepower, and then vanish into the afternoon rush hour -- just as they did in the Huerta killing.

The paid assassins, known as sicarios, are rarely apprehended. Mexican officials say the commando squads probably travel from state to state, across a country where the government and its security forces are drawing alarming conclusions about the scope and skill of an enemy supported by billions of dollars in drug profits.

"They are getting very good at their jobs," said Hector Hawley Morelos, coordinator of the state forensics and crime laboratory here, where criminologists and coroners have been overwhelmed by more than 1,600 homicides in Juarez this year. "The assassins show a high level of sophistication. They have had training -- somewhere. They appear to have knowledge of police investigative procedures. For instance, they don't leave fingerprints. That is very disturbing."

Alejandro Pariente, the spokesman for the attorney general in Chihuahua state, said, "They are called organized crime for a very good reason. Because they are very organized."

In Ciudad Juarez, a tough industrial city across the river from El Paso, where 42 people have been killed in the last week, the morgue serves as a grim classroom for the study of drug violence along the border.

In an interview last week, a busy coroner in the forensics lab spoke while performing an autopsy. A dozen dead men awaited final exams, sprawled on metal tables, their bodies pebbled with fat bullet holes, open eyes staring at fluorescent bulbs. The men were all eventually classified as "organized crime" homicides, which account for the majority of deaths in Ciudad Juarez, the most violent city in Mexico.


On Monday, federal Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora said there have been 5,376 drug-related killings this year in Mexico, double last year's number. Later that evening, Victor Hugo Moneda, who led Mexico City's investigative police agency, was killed in an ambush as he was exiting his car at his home in the capital. The assailants, using a car and motorcycle, fired 22 shots, according to police.

In the Juarez morgue, the three walk-in freezers are filled to capacity with more than 90 corpses, stacked floor to ceiling, in leaking white bags with zippers. After a few months, those who are not identified are buried in a field at the city cemetery at the edge of the desert.

"The patterns that we often see with organized crime homicides are high-caliber weapons, multiple wounds, extreme trauma," said Alma Rosa Padilla, a chief medical examiner, who completes as many as five full autopsies each day. "They don't go to the hospital."

One U.S. anti-drug law enforcement officer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he works in Mexico, said, "The Mexican army has had a problem with deserters. So have the police, including special anti-crime units. They are now working for the other side."

More than a dozen top Mexican law enforcement officials have been detained recently for allegedly working for the drug cartels, including Noé Ramírez Mandujano, the nation's former top anti-drug prosecutor. He was arrested last month on suspicion of accepting $450,000 in exchange for sharing intelligence with traffickers.
===============

In Mexico, Assassins of Increasing Skill
 


According to information released Thursday by the Mexican congress, more than 18,000 soldiers have deserted the Mexican army this year. In the last three years, 177 members of special-forces units have abandoned their posts, and many went to work for organized crime.

Recently, Chihuahua Gov. José Reyes Baeza said that hired gunmen who have been arrested confessed that they carried out executions for 1,000 pesos per killing, about $75.

Weapons pour over the border here from Texas, bought illegally from street gangs or legally at sporting goods stores in the United States. Last month, the Mexican army made the largest seizure of illegal firearms and military-type weapons in more than two decades, uncovering a cache of 540 rifles, 165 grenades and 500,000 rounds of ammunition in a house in Reynosa, just across the border from McAllen, Tex.

According to Mexican officials, rifles stolen from Fort Bliss, a U.S. Army post in El Paso, end up on the streets of Juarez. At the forensic laboratory, the ballistics team pulled out a dozen weapons, including AK-47s, AR-15s, M-16s and other military-grade arms.

"I think that the government is simply overwhelmed. The cases are coming in fives and tens now, and it is probably very hard to keep up," said Tony Payan, an expert on the drug trade and professor at the University of Texas in El Paso. "The government is on the defensive. The thugs have the upper hand here. They probably perfect their techniques faster than the government can find the experts or the resources to combat them."

Huerta's murder was a bold strike. He was the second-ranking federal prosecutor in the state. Recently, the 40-year-old lawyer was handed the case of slain journalist Armando Rodríguez, a veteran police reporter at El Diario newspaper who was killed by a gunman in front of his house last month in Ciudad Juarez. The reasons behind Huerta's killing remain unknown.

When forensic investigator David García and his partner arrived in their white van 15 minutes after the shooting on the afternoon of Dec. 3, the municipal police were marking the perimeter of the crime scene with yellow tape and the first soldiers were arriving to stand guard.


The sunny, broad intersection of Arizona Street and Boulevard Pope John Paul II abuts the Rio Grande and is a five-minute drive from a main bridge into El Paso. Easily visible across the river was a picket line of U.S. Border Patrol vehicles.

Huerta was riding in the passenger seat of a new silver-colored Dodge Journey SUV with Texas plates, which had stopped at a red light. The car was driven by a secretary at the prosecutor's office, Marisela Esparza Granados. When García arrived, the splintered windshield wipers on the vehicle were still struggling to operate.

The intersection around the Dodge was littered with spent shells. García and his partner, who carry clipboards but no weapons, methodically photographed the scene and collected 85 casings, all in the caliber consistent with the account some witnesses told police -- that two hooded men from two vans pulled in front of the Dodge and opened fire with AK-47s.

The criminologists at the forensic lab were struck by several details. First, they suspected that Huerta was followed by at least one, and perhaps several, chase vehicles, which would have helped the gunmen get into position to ambush Huerta. They knew the car Huerta would use and his route, the investigators said.

Second, the criminologists were impressed with the precision, speed and audacity of the attack.

When it rolled to a stop at the traffic light, Huerta's vehicle was surrounded by other cars at a crowded intersection. But no other vehicles were hit by stray bullets. Later, Hawley, the lab coordinator, pointed out the tight pattern of gunfire pocking the SUV's windshield.

"You see they hit where they aim. He was the target. Not her," Hawley said. The assassins concentrated their fire directly at Huerta, who was not wearing a bulletproof vest. "If they know they're wearing a bulletproof vest, they ignore the chest and shoot the head," he added.

The autopsy revealed that Huerta had been struck at least 40 times, most in the chest. The passenger seat of the SUV was soaked with blood. The secretary, Esparza, was struck only three times, though a neck wound was fatal.

In the crime laboratory, the shell casings were examined by the ballistics team and recorded. The bullets are almost always from the United States. The assassins do not trust bullets made in Mexico, Hawley said, adding, "The American bullets are better."



28447  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: The Obama Phenomena on: December 12, 2008, 02:33:51 PM
The more of our lives the government controls and manipulates, the more reason there will be to buy politicians and their price will go up.
28448  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Any comments on the Levin Report on: December 12, 2008, 02:31:25 PM
The bipartisan vote in support of the report would seem to give it considerable weight.  Any comments?  GM?

http://levin.senate.gov/newsroom/supporting/2008/Detainees.121108.pdf
28449  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Segunda Parte on: December 12, 2008, 02:10:53 PM
El Ejército mexicano

Antes Calderon envió al ejército después de los narcos en 2006, contrabando de droga estuvo desenfrenado en México, pero los cárteles controlaron sus respectivos territorios, donde corrupción reinó y la paz prevaleció (más o menos). Había escaramuzas ocasionales de cártel en cártel pero ellos tendieron a ser efímeros. La falta histórica de presión de gobierno creó finalmente más riqueza y el poder para los cárteles para luchar sobre y la violencia comenzó a subir. Cuándo Calderon mandó a tropas federales, ellos revolvieron efectivamente el nido del avispón. Los asesinatos de droga-relacionó a través de skyrocketed de México como cárteles compitieron para el territorio flojamente tenido de sus rivales que vacilan.

Calderon no es el primer presidente mexicano de utilizar el ejército para combatir los cárteles, pero él ha cambiado dramáticamente la manera que el ejército contribuye a la misión del counternarcotics del gobierno. Los antecesores de Calderon confiaron principalmente en el Grupo Especial de Fuerzas Airmobile (GAFE), que fue entrenado especialmente y fue equipado para realizar desafiando extraordinariamente operaciones con poco tiempo de antelación. Estas misiones incluyeron el 2003 arresto de Osiel Cardenas Guillen, líder anterior del cártel de Golfo, y de la 2002 captura de Benjamin Arellano Felix, la cabeza del cártel de Tijuana.

Pero las operaciones que implican GAFE o el alto mando GAFE (las la mayoría de los élite de fuerzas especiales de México) fueron solo-objetivo, misiones aisladas. Desde que 2006, Calderon ha desplegado a tropas — inclusive ambas unidades especiales de fuerzas y batallones regulares de infantería — Por primera vez en misiones a largo plazo diseñadas para imponer la estabilidad y desenredar el sistema entero de cártel. La misión ha llegado a ser, en un sentido, tanto counterinsurgency como counternarcotics, con fuerzas federales que operan distante distante con el conocimiento limitado del paisaje o personas locales. En algunas maneras, esto es muy semejante a las fuerzas de desafíos EEUU encara en Iraq y Afganistán.

La política nacional doméstica de la seguridad de México bajo Calderon ha sido formulada en el nivel de Gabinete, con el Secretariado Interior (SEGOB) tomando la delantera. A pesar de la muerte de Interior Secretario Juan Camilo Mourino en un noviembre. 4 choque del avión en México D.F. (pensó ser causado por error piloto), política de seguridad hace probable continúa proceder de the secretariat. SEGOB trabaja con el Secretariado de Defensa, la Seguridad Pública Secretariado y el PGR a coordinar el despliegue de fuerzas federales (ambos militar y la aplicación de la ley).

Casi todos despliegues a gran escala son operaciones conjuntos con policía y tropas federales que patrullan junto, que combina la fuerza bruta de fuerza militar con las capacidades investigativas de la policía federal. La cooperación no es perfecta, y hay muchos ejemplos de coordinación pobre. Muchas de las correrías y arrestos mayores han sido llevados a cabo por GAFE con exclusión de aplicación de la ley federal. GAFE entonces transfiere a detenidos en la custodia de la oficina del fiscal general para la prosecución. A menudo, aplicación de la ley federal es recortada de operaciones sensibles — Presumiblemente porque el ejército tiene la inteligencia que podría ser cedida si expuso de corromper policía federal.

Primer despliegue militar de Calderon contra los cárteles implicó a 6.500 tropas expedidas a Michoacan (estado de la casa de Calderon) en diciembre 2006. Michoacan fue el centro de una oleada de violencia que había dejado a 500 muertos en incidentes relacionados con la droga ese año (muchas de las muertes fueron aturdirmente horribles, inclusive decapita y los desmembramientos). El mes siguiente, Calderon desplegó a 3.300 tropas al estado de Baja California y 1.000 tropas al estado de Guerrero. Desde entonces, las tropas han sido mandadas a calmar violencia en 14 otros estados, con tener total de despliegues estabiliza para el por delante de seis meses en aproximadamente 35.000. Aunque los números de despliegue son un secreto de cerca tenido, nosotros también estimamos que aproximadamente 10.000 policía federal también ha sido enviada a éstos molesta lugares.

La infantería mexicana del ejército y fuerzas especiales luchan la guerra del suelo del mayoría del ejército contra los cárteles. Las fuerzas especiales participan en correrías de precisión en ubicaciones estratégicas mientras la infantería realiza patrullas (a menudo con policías federales), establece puntos de revisión de camino y entra en la búsqueda y destruye misiones en la marihuana y operaciones de cultivo de amapola de opio. A llegar en un área de operaciones, las tropas empiezan por vetting la policía local. Esto requiere, como mínimo, un desarme temporario de policías, y a veces la corrupción local es tan profunda que los oficiales permanentemente son aliviados de sus armas. La marina mexicana ha sido utilizada asimismo para operaciones offshore como el 2006 cerrar del litoral de Michoacan en conjunción con operaciones simultáneas de suelo. Cuándo unidades necesarias y militares coordinan con policía federal autorizada a realizar investigaciones que el ejército no es permitido ni es preparado para realizar.

La estrategia de Calderon para los primeros 12 meses de operaciones del contrario-cártel del ejército implicó, casi exclusivamente, concentrando en el Gulf cartel En fortalezas en y alrededor de Tamaulipas y Michoacan indica. El objetivo durante este período parece haber sido de desmantelar Golfo centrándose antes en otros cárteles. En el proceso, sin embargo, el cártel de Sinaloa comenzó a hacer movimientos para llenar los vacíos dejaron por Golfo. Aunque violencia girara fuera de control en territorio de Sinaloa, casi ningunas tropas fueron enviadas allí durante el primer año (el territorio de Sinaloa tiene comercio o industria importantes pequeños y fue una prioridad más baja, mientras Golfo opera cerca del pasillo de envío de Monterrey-Nuevo Laredo, por que más que el 60 por ciento de exportaciones mexicanas al paso de Estados Unidos). Durante estos primero 12 a 15 meses, la estrategia de contrario-cártel fue dictada por el territorio controlado por el cártel de Golfo.

Ahora parece que la estrategia es de perseguir múltiples cárteles y para manejar la violencia en centros de población. Después de que 12 a 15 meses de operaciones contra Golfo, el cártel fuera apreciablemente más débil y la violencia comenzaba a estallar en otras áreas, inclusive centros grandes de población como Juarez y Tijuana. En ese punto, el gobierno empezó despliegues extendido más anchamente, expidiendo rápidamente a tropas necesitaron como “apagar fuegos.” Uno de los factores primarios en el cambio en la estrategia fue opinión pública. Los residentes y los alcaldes de ciudades grandes quieren que Tijuana y Juarez llegaba a ser cada vez más harta de la violencia creciente. Ansioso de demostrar a los gobiernos del pueblo y el estado que lo todavía tuvo un asidero en la situación, el gobierno federal comenzó a reaccionar más directamente a éstos concierne, enviando a tropas no contra un cártel particular pero al último lugar de peligro violento. Hasta ahora, mientras el gobierno federal ha conseguido mantener las calificaciones positivas de aprobación, han estirado el ejército muy delgado en el proceso.

En esencia, el ejército movió de utilizar una almádena en un solo objetivo a utilizar una serie de pequeños martillos en muchos objetivos. Los resultados han sido menos que satisfactorio. Más temprano en la campaña, despliegues de ejército tendrían como resultado inicialmente una disminución inmediata y notabla en la violencia. Esto es ya no el caso. Desde marzo, cuando el ejército movió en estabilizar Juarez — donde violencia giraba rápidamente fuera de control — El ejército ha tenido a menos tropas disponibles y ha tenido que depender de la policía local para la ayuda. La violencia continuó aún después de las tropas llegadas.

La operación de Juarez fue un momento decisivo en la estrategia del gobierno federal, y no es un ejemplo bueno de cómo opinión pública condujo el gobierno hacia una respuesta prominente que hace, al fin, mejora apreciablemente la situación de la seguridad. La operación representó el primer despliegue a gran escala en el que un número insuficiente de soldados y policía federal fue forzado a compensar la escasez de mano de obra reclutando la ayuda de aplicación de la ley local. Naturalmente, la situación fue complicada por el hecho ése razón las tropas fueron en primer lugar había de investigar a la policía local para lazos al crimen organizado. Como resultado, muchas policía protestó o fue a la huelga, y a este día situación de la seguridad de la ciudad se queda tenue. Juarez fue el primer signo claro que el gobierno no desplegaba suficientes fuerzas para encontrar la misión expandida del ejército.

Uno de los problemas más grandes que el ejército ha tenido que confrontar es tamaño completo de México. El ejército del país 200,000-strong (todas ramas, con el ejército en acerca de 144.000) — consistir en su mayor parte de reclutas —Simplemente no es suficiente grande para dominar 761.606 millas cuadradas de México del territorio ni seguir un estimó a 500.000 personas implicadas en el comercio ilícito de droga. Unas 35.000 tropas federales son desplegadas en cada ocasión. En el el norte de área contigua, donde 16.000 tropas son desplegadas, los traficantes de drogas tienen una cantidad tremenda de tierra abierta en su disposición, donde ellos han establecido una red vasta de rutas y pisos francos (el el norte de área contigua atraviesa casi 250.000 millas cuadradas y está acerca del tamaño de Tejas). Los esfuerzos de la aplicación de la ley en este ambiente son muy difíciles, desde que los cárteles tienen la capacidad de cambiar rápidamente tránsito rutas y cambiar sus pautas de conducta para evitar descubrimiento (aunque ellos pasarán generalmente por pueblos en los que ellos son capaces de establecer control). Las 16.000 tropas en el el norte de la frontera encaran una situación semejante que Marina de EEUU confrontaron en la provincia de Anbar de Iraq, donde un juego que frustra de “golpea un lunar” llegó a ser la táctica predominante de la coalición. Aún con cooperación de EEUU, hay tropas mexicanas simplemente demasiadas pocas por EEUU-la frontera de México para combatir completamente actividades de cártel México interior.




Un segundo desafío que el ejército mexicano debe tratar con es aún más básico: No fue diseñado para esta clase de misión. Como la mayoría de los ejércitos parados, el ejército de México no es entrenado ni es equipado para imponer las leyes domésticas de país. Falta no sólo la autoridad civil pero también la pericia necesaria para realizar investigaciones e imponer orden. Aunque el ejército despliegue con aplicación de la ley federal, que tiene alguna pericia civil, el grado a que el ejército debe operar sin la ayuda de policía local (es decir, los que saben el territorio) es un estorbo que paraliza.

El ejército así es forzado a adaptar rápidamente a una clase de guerra que puede ser llamada fácilmente asimétrico. Los agresores criminales organizados en México, quieren a rebeldes en Iraq y Afganistán, son difícil de distinguirse de civiles inocentes y puede montar ataques entonces mezclan rápidamente en la población. Y con ninguna manera de depender de pericia local, la inteligencia exacta y oportuna es limitada muy. Visto como una fuerza que ocupa, tropas federales tienen un tiempo difícil que gana la confianza de habitantes y redes locales efectivas reveladoras de humano-inteligencia, que es clave a un counterinsurgency exitoso.

A pesar de estos desafíos, las estrategias y las políticas aplicadas han llevado hasta ahora a éxitos inauditos contra traficantes de drogas. El ejército es responsable de la mayor parte de estos éxitos. Sobre los últimos dos años, la marina mexicana ha reducido el trafico de drogas marítimo de drogas ilícitas por el 65 por ciento. La vigilancia aumentada del ejército de espacio aéreo (junto con nuevos radares y restricciones de donde vuelos son permitidos aterrizar) ha llevado a una reducción del 90 por ciento en el trafico de drogas de antena de cocaína de Colombia. En esencia, el ejército tiene probado así ser lejos la única institución en México que tiene la capacidad de intervenir apreciablemente con crimen organizado en el país.

A pesar de estos éxitos significativos sobre los últimos dos años, el ejército, con su número limitado de tropas, no ha podido prevenir el número de víctimas relacionado con la droga de subir (el peaje se paró en 1.543 en 2005 y superará 5.000 en 2008). Verdaderamente, si cualquier cosa, la situación de la seguridad ha empeorado a través de México, en parte porque el gobierno tan es centrado en los cárteles a costa de criminales ordinarios. Como resultado, crímenes violentos como asesina, armó robo y el asalto está en la subida por todas partes el país.

El Golpetazo Duro Largo

No hay solución sencilla al problema de cárteles de la droga de México. Aún desmantelar el aparato de cártel sería un remedio a corto plazo a un permanente problema. Siempre que hay una demanda para drogas en Estados Unidos, habrá individuos emprendedores que tratarán de negociarlos por el EEUU el sur de vecino.

La artimaña, entonces, es de construir sólido que suficientes instituciones en México para reemplazar — o contrarresta por lo menos — La influencia de los traficantes de drogas. El militar puede desmantelar corrompe las policías, pero el sistema para establecer un efectivo judicial u otra autoridad cívica en su lugar no parecen ser suficiente completo para lograr ninguna última reforma. El militar puede purgar corrompe individuos de los grados de aplicación de la ley local, pero del problema básico de plomo de plata O persiste. Y allí parece ser una capacidad disminuyente de aplicar un programa económico del desarrollo que proporcionaría oportunidades alternativas de empleo para miembros de cártel y haría el comercio de droga menos atractivo. En esencia, no hay estrategia completa de reedificación, y sin un surgir de equilibrio de ser-sosteniendo de operaciones militares, una victoria clara y decisiva es difícil de lograr aún en el mejor de circunstancias.

Mientras ciudadanos mexicanos todavía por y por apoyo grande la misión del gobierno, battle fatigue is beginning to set in, Y su tolerancia para la violencia podría ondear. Calderon todavía mantiene las calificaciones de aprobación de alrededor del 60 por ciento, pero sobre la mitad de mexicanos sondeó cree durante el verano que el gobierno pierde la guerra en cárteles. Si apoyo público se marcha de Calderon, la guerra del gobierno en el crimen organizado ganará a otro enemigo más.
Tell Stratfor What You Think
28450  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Stratfor: Una Guerra de atricion es estrategia limitada on: December 12, 2008, 02:08:48 PM
Part 2: A War of Attrition is a Limited Strategy
El 10 de diciembre de 2008 | 1211 GMT

 Resumen

 Durante los últimos dos años, el gobierno mexicano ha participado en una campaña concertada contra los cárteles de droga, que había operado con la impunidad cercano por décadas en áreas contiguas de México. Mientras ha habido algunos éxitos, factores geográficos, institucionales y técnicos han hecho el gobierno hace campaña una lucha ascendente. Con corrupción desenfrenada que plaga los grados de la aplicación de la ley de México, el Presidente Felipe Calderon utiliza el ejército para imponer la regla de la ley en la periferia del país, donde los cárteles todavía colocan el peligro más grande. Pero la situación recuerda el esfuerzo temprano de EEUU en Iraq, donde una pequeña fuerza extranjera entrenada para la guerra convencional puede no rápidamente transición a un papel del counterinsurgency y donde no había estrategia completa para la reedificación.

Análisis
 La Nota de la redacción: Esto es la segunda parte de una serie en México.

El desafío primario de México en su combate contra los cárteles de droga es su geography. El país el norte de la región contigua es hecho de desierto, separando las redes de transporte y centros de población occidentales y orientales costeras. Gran distancias y terreno inhóspito — mucho de ello árido o montañoso — Haga control de gobierno del país desafiando muy.
El gobierno no controla las cuestas de la Sierra Madre Oriental ni el Occidental de Sierra Madre, que corre al norte-sur arriba cada costa y es las rutas primarias de droga-trafico de drogas. Ni lo hace controla el el norte de desierto que bordea Estados Unidos, que, como el oeste americano fabuloso en Estados Unidos, es en esencia una frontera donde leyes escritas en México D.F. son difíciles de imponer.



El el norte de la región contigua es definido fundamentalmente por su proximidad a Estados Unidos, que es la fuente primaria de renta de comercio, el turismo, las remesas, los trabajos (para los que afrontan la frontera que cruza) e inversión directa extranjera. Por supuesto, Estados Unidos es también el mercado más grande de mundo para drogas ilícitas. México del sudeste es igualmente frontera-como, con selvas densas en la orilla oriental de la frontera de México-Guatemala y en las montañas de las tierras altas de Chiapas. Aunque México D.F. más cerca, el el sur de la región es muy pobre, de diversidad étnica y todavía acoge el Zapatista Ejército Nacional de Liberación, un resto de la Revolución mexicana a principios del siglo XX.

No casualmente, la revolución, que empezó en 1910, implicó un desafío cercano-idéntico para el gobierno central en función de control territorial, con rebeldes de Ejército de la Liberación de Emiliano Zapata del Sur en el sur de México y el ejército de la Casa de campo de Pancho en el norte. Las similitudes geográficas entre las fortalezas de la revolucionario era y ésos de cárteles actuales de droga subrayan cuán históricamente difícil es para el gobierno para controlar su territorio. La ausencia de conexiones como interconectar geográficas naturales los ríos, que proporcionarían fácil y la línea ferroviaria urbana para fuerzas federales de seguridad, significa que el gobierno central mexicano debe vencer montañas, los desiertos y las selvas para afirmar su autoridad en los interiores.
Hoy, los cárteles toman ventaja llena de la falta del gobierno de control en el el norte de y del sur de partes del país. Los traficantes de drogas mueven cocaína en el sur de México después de atravesar América Central, en el norte de manera de los países andinos cacao-crecientes de Sudamérica. Al norte, y por los pasillos de transporte de las dos costas, cárteles mexicanos de droga disfrutaron de limitó el gobierno interferencia durante las décadas del Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) regla y estableció de los reinos factos donde su palabra fue la ley y las drogas movieron eficientemente hacia el norte — En Estados Unidos.




En 2006, sin embargo, la marea giró para los traficantes de drogas cuando Presidente mexicano nuevamente elegido Felipe Calderon cabalgó para enchufar en promesas de campaña de aplastar los cárteles. La tarea no sería fácil para Calderon. La corrupción penetra cada nivel de instituciones de la aplicación de la ley de México — cuyos miembros son continuamente bajo la amenaza de la muerte por los cárteles — Y local (e incluso federal) policía puede non mantener la regla de la ley. Esto ha dejado mucha de la región contigua de México totalmente sin ley.

Con aplicación de la ley local y federal cedió — y encarado con un enemigo bien-entrenado rico mucho armado y pernicioso — Calderon concluyó que la única manera de derrotar a mexicano organized crime Fue de desplegar el ejército. Pero a pesar de la potencia de fuego superior del ejército y combate las capacidades (comparó a fuerzas domésticas de seguridad), es ni suficiente grande para cubrir el territorio necesario ni es diseñó para la aplicación de la ley doméstica. Largo, alargó operaciones militares también enfatizan un presupuesto ya molestado del gobierno. Y el ambiente en el que el militar debe operar es un hostil uno. Cuando sigue los cárteles, el ejército mexicano es más como un poder que ocupa que persigue a rebeldes locales que una agencia del gobierno central que impone la regla de la ley. Además, su reputación relativamente sin mancha en un país plagado con corrupción no es garantizada aguantar. El más largo permanece comprometido con los cárteles las más grande sus oportunidades de ser corrompido. La realidad, por supuesto, es que México tiene pocas otras opciones.

Problemas institucionales

Durante los 71 años de regla por el PRI y la presidencia subsiguiente de seis-año de Zorro de Vicente del Nacional Partido de Acción, el gobierno mexicano hizo limitó movimientos contra los cárteles. Para la regla de la mayor parte de PRI, los cárteles estuvieron muy lejos de tan fuerte como ellos ha llegado a ser en la década pasada, así que políticos podrían proporcionar para permitirles ser, en la mayor parte. La presión carente durante esta vez, los cárteles crecieron cada vez más poderoso, estableciendo las redes complejas del negocio a través de sus regiones y en los mercados internacionales de droga. Cuando el negocio comenzó a recoger, así que hizo la influencia de los cárteles. El flujo de caja creciente dio los cárteles operando más alto presupuestos, que hicieron más fácil de comprar cooperación de administración local y también levantó las estacas en la industria de droga-trafico de drogas.

Cuando los cárteles llegaron a ser más poderosos el nivel de violencia también comenzó a subir, y por el gobierno de 2006 Calderon decidido para hacer su movimiento. Por esta vez, sin embargo, los cárteles de droga tan fueron atrincherados que ellos habían llegado a ser la ley vigente en sus respectivos territorios. Las autoridades locales y federales de la aplicación de la ley habían llegado a ser corrompen, y la entrada de tropas militares tuvo el efecto de desestabilizar estas relaciones — cuando los planificadores pensaron — Y estropear el negocio de los cárteles. Con la disolución de sus redes, los cárteles empezaron defender, proveer sus lazos establecidos en el gobierno y defendiendo agresivamente su césped.

El problema de corrupción se reduce al lure of money Y la amenaza de la muerte. Conocido por el plomo de plata O de frase (que traduce literalmente a “la plata o dirige,” con el significado implicado, “toma un soborno o toma una bala”), el selecto dado a la aplicación de la ley y funcionarios del estado los pone bajo la amenaza de la muerte si ellos no permiten (o, como es a menudo el caso, facilita) operaciones de cártel. Con el gobierno históricamente incapaz de proteger todo su personal de estas clases de amenazas — y ciertamente incapaz de emparejar los largos bolsillos de los cárteles — Los funcionarios de la aplicación de la ley de México han llegado a ser casi universalmente informales. Las amenazas de la muerte han aumentado como el gobierno ha intensificado sus operaciones anti cártel, teniendo como resultado movimiento y dificultades altos que alistan nuevo personal — Personal especialmente calificado. (La ciudad de Juarez ha estado sin un jefe de policía desde que pleno verano, después de que jefes anteriores fueran matados o fueron huidos a Estados Unidos. Los destinos semejantes han acontecido agencias locales de aplicación de la ley en casi cada estado mexicano).

En función de dinero a mano, mexicano organizó crimen puede golpear cualquier oferta que el gobierno puede hacer. Los cárteles mexicanos introducen en algún lugar entre $40 mil millones y $100 mil millones por año. El octubre. 27 anuncio eso 35 employees of the anti-organized crime unit (SIEDO) in the Office of the Mexican Attorney General (PGR) Había sido detenido y había sido cargado con corrupción ilustra el hecho que ni los alcances superiores del gobierno están a salvo de infiltración por los cárteles. En este ejemplo, funcionarios primeros fueron pagados hasta $450.000 por mes para pasar información adelante a un cártel implicado en el trafico de drogas de cocaína. Esta clase de dinero es una tentación inmensa en un país donde salarios anuales para funcionarios huyen $10.000 para policías locales a $48.000 para senadores y $220.000 para el presidente. El crimen organizado puede concentrar en individuos clave en el gobierno mexicano y convencerlos a proporcionar información con una combinación de ofertas lucrativas y amenazas físicas si ellos no obedecen.

Cuándo viene a terminar en amenazas de la muerte, los cárteles tienen probado sí mismos ser bastante eficientes. Los asesinatos de Edgar Millan Gomez, Igor Labastida Calderon Y otros funcionarios federales de policía en México D.F. antes este año es ejemplos que hace al caso. Golpear a funcionarios de alto nivel en la capital del país les envían un mensaje bravo a funcionarios del estado. En un nivel local y más pernicioso, los cárteles han montado una ofensiva concertada contra estado y policía municipal. En el año pasado ellos han asesinado un suma de 500 policías, y en algunos pueblos, el jefe de policía y el cuerpo de policía entero ha sido detenido en cargas de corrupción.

Las amenazas de la muerte son un problema grave para autoridades mexicanas porque México simplemente no tiene la capacidad de proteger todo su personal de aplicación de la ley y a funcionarios del estado. Los detalles protectores efectivos requieren niveles altos de habilidad, y deficiencias de la mano de obra de México lo hacen difícil de encontrar que personas para llenar estas posiciones — Especialmente desde que los candidatos serían en gran parte el personal mexicanos de aplicación de la ley que son a sí mismo los objetivos.

Y sin la protección completa, hay muy poco estímulo para el personal de aplicación de la ley de tener fuera contra influencia de cártel. Después de todo, una vez que los cárteles han establecido a sí mismo como la ley vigente, son mucho más fácil para la policía local permitir perros que durmientes están que son de escoger combates con el perro más grande en el bloque — Con ninguna esperanza de respaldo suficiente del gobierno central.

La pérdida coherente del personal por charges of corruption Y la muerte es una debilidad inherente para México. Hace la conservación del conocimiento institucional difícil, erosionándose aún más la eficacia de esfuerzos de la seguridad del gobierno. Adicionalmente, la pérdida de jefes locales de policía, los alcaldes e indica y funcionarios federales de policía a la muerte, la prosecución o la resignación interrumpen continuidad de la autoridad y hacen la estabilidad en el operacional plano imposible. Además, el proceso es que se autoperpetúa. Los que reemplazan muerto o corrompen a funcionarios a menudo son experimentados menos y menos vetted y son más probable de ser perdido a la corrupción o el asesinato.

El movimiento y la corrupción altos también duelen la reunión de la inteligencia y reducen el conocimiento situacional. Mantener fuentes en el campo son una táctica importante en cualquier guerra, pero esas fuentes requieren el manejo coherente por el personal de aplicación de la ley que ellos se fían de — Y cambios rápidos en el personal destruyen esa confianza. Verdaderamente, la corrupción y el movimiento conducen más a menudo las capacidades de la inteligencia hacia atrás, saltando filtraciones y encauzando información del gobierno a los cárteles en vez de al revés.

Aún la constitución es una fuente de la inseguridad institucional, limitando el tiempo en la oficina del presidente y legisladores a un término. Irónicamente, mientras estas provisiones fueron puestas en el lugar para prevenir la trinchera de líderes en posiciones del poder (verdaderamente, esto fue uno de los asuntos que conducen de la Revolución mexicana), ellos contribuyen realmente a la corrupción, desde que líderes no encaran el desafío de buscar reelección y averiguación duradera de votante. Aunque refuerza el aparato del partido poniendo el énfasis en el plan del partido antes que las ambiciones del individuo, el estado de México- y políticos federal-planos son casos perdidos sobre la oficina entrante. Esto los liberta para asentarse favores políticos y asuntos personales sin necesitar para explicárselo a votantes en el día de las elecciones.

Integración federal de Aplicación de la ley

Los desafíos de la guerra de cártel han incitado la administración de Calderon a reorganizar y combinar las dos agencias federales de aplicación de la ley de país, la Policía Impeditiva Federal (PFP) y la Agencia Federal de Investigaciones (AFI), en lo que será simplemente conocido como la Policía Federal. Las dos agencias independientes han tenido tradicionalmente responsabilidades diferentes e informados a dos secretarios diferentes en el Gabinete del presidente.

El PFP ha sido la fuerza más física, en esencia una agencia doméstica grande de policía cargó con proporcionar el gran público seguridad como mantener ordena en protestas y parar disturbios. El AFI, por otro lado, fue modelado después de EEUU Oficina Federal de Investigación — Una agencia que enfoca más a investigar actividad criminal que lo combatiendo en las calles. En muchos despliegues de counternarcotics durante el por delante de dos años, tanto PFP como AFI han sido desplegados, con PFP manejando generalmente puntos de revisión de carretera y búsquedas de vehículo mientras AFI investiga escenas de crimen y sigue plomos. Desde que son agencias federales de aplicación de la ley, sus áreas de la superposición de responsabilidades, pero cada han mantenido su propia estructura separada de la cultura y la orden.

Con la guerra de droga que intensifica sobre los últimos dos años, se hizo patente que amenaza primaria de seguridad de México fue organizada crimen y la violencia que acompañaron lo. Los cárteles de México son muy brutales (y tan requieren la mano pesada del PFP), pero ellos también son organizados muy bien y de complicidad (requiriendo la pericia investigativa del AFI). En el pasado, las dos agencias a menudo trabajarían el mismo caso sin coordinar sus actividades, que tuvieron como resultado una falta de información-compartir e investigaciones prolongadas. La administración de Calderon concluyó que luchando los cárteles requieren un cuerpo de policía federal capaz de proporcionar la seguridad física y realizar el trabajo investigativo continuamente.

Así que el gobierno aplicó un plan para integrar el PFP y AFI — Un plan eso, mientras considerado completo en el papel, es distante de completo en la práctica. Tales transiciones burocráticas toman inevitablemente mucho tiempo y el esfuerzo y tienen como resultado ineficacias a corto plazo (que puede ser un problema con una guerra de cártel que rabía). Para fechar, rivalidades burocráticas parecen haber prevenido unidad verdadera en todo. A pesar del acuerdo de papel, el PFP y AFI se quedan separación en la práctica, haciendo sus propios arrestos y seguir sus propios casos con interacción limitada uno con el otro. En septiembre 2008, AFI agents protested El hecho que ellos fueron hechos para informar a comandantes de PFP en la Seguridad Pública Secretariado. PFP quitó finalmente a los agentes de AFI del caso, demostrando claramente las rivalidades entre organismos.

Además, no es claro cómo la decisión impresionará corrupción en las agencias. Por una parte, habiendo centralizado control sobre una sola institución carena el proceso de corrupción-vigilancia. Por otro lado, con sólo una institución federal de seguridad, no hay segundo partido de proporcionar un cheque independiente de exterior en la corrupción. Además, si hay sólo una agencia y es corrompe o sufrimiento de ataques, entonces toda policía federal de México es debilitada. Adicionalmente, manteniendo que dos agencias también tiene en cuenta cada en ser aislado de la corrupción y debilidades del otro.

Es claro que una unión formal de dos agencias independientes de policía no puede ser institucionalizada de noche. Pero la presión es gran acelerar el proceso. Calderon ha puesto una fecha tope tentativa de integración completa por 2012 (que es también el año de la elección luego presidencial). La idea es para la Policía Federal de últimamente tomar la delantera en la campaña contra los cárteles en vez del ejército.

Más allá de los problemas de reorganización burocrática, agencias federales de aplicación de la ley de México encaran varios desafíos logísticos y técnicos. Las deficiencias técnicas serán dirigidas hasta cierto punto por EEUU Merida Initiative, Que otorgará aproximadamente $900 millones a México en los próximos dos años para el equipo y la instrucción. Esto dará México la oportunidad de recoger las tecnologías como equipo de espectrometría de ion (la tecnología de narcótico-presintiendo) eso tiene probado ser útil en tomas de marihuana. Hay también mucho cuarto de mejorar colección de información, el almacenamiento y el análisis. No hay base de datos centralizada con antecedentes penales para local, el estado ni agencias federales de policía. Las agencias de la aplicación de la ley también faltan las capacidades suficientes de seguro-comunicaciones y droga-descubrimiento, que significa que custodia actividades pueden ser vigiladas por los cárteles y embarques domésticos de droga son más difíciles de discernir.

Pero incluso si México pueda crear la estructura más efectiva y eficiente burocrática y obtener las tecnologías muy últimas para sus fuerzas de la seguridad, no hay manera verdadera de compensar la corrupción que paraliza que penetra aplicación de la ley federal. Y con la ferocidad creciente de los cárteles de droga, no hay fin a la vista a la presión que ellos pueden y colocarán en el personal de la aplicación de la ley de México. Las causas fundamentales de corrupción institucional en México — coerción y soborno — Son entrelazados profundamente en la cultura política de país y tomarán décadas, quizás generaciones, para arrancar. Esto significa que el gobierno no alcanzará su objetivo de transición la guerra de droga en las manos de tiempo de aplicación de la ley pronto, que tendrá en cambio consecuencias para el ejército como luchan contra los cárteles. Fundamentalmente, la seguridad fuerza reforma de necesidad (y rápidamente) antes el ejército sucumbe a las mismas presiones que han paralizado a la policía federal.
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