I don't know. The fact that the opposition is still at it and has not run for Costa Rica or some other safe haven like the previous opposition leaders did is a good sign. They need the backing of international bodies.
Opposition Challenges Results In Over Five Thousand Ballot Boxes May 8, 2013
As you may have noticed, I have been traveling the last few days. But my friends keep me informed by sending all sorts of information which I read and file, but was not thinking of posting. Then yesterday I got the note on the second challenge to the April 14th. vote and thought I would mention it. The opposition is challenging the results in 5,720 tables or boxes, which comprise 21,562 tallies. Each table challenged includes some form of irregularity which is documented in the challenge. The opposition is requesting that the vote be redone in all these, which comprises of 2.3 million votes. Separately, the fingerprint analysis shows a large number of inconsistencies. But the most significant one is that 20% of he voters had no fingerprint on file, including over four hundred thousand new voters, all of which were supposed to have their prints on file.
This challenge to the election votes is separate from the first one, which was based on irregularities associated with violations of the electoral laws,such as assisted voting, propaganda and abuses, not with the details of the voting process and the results. Both include recusing those magistrates that have expressed an opinion on the case or are related to Government officials.
Venezuelan Bank Official Charged in U.S. With Two in Bribe Plot Bob Van Voris and Patricia HurtadoMay 08, 2013 12:01 am ET
May 8 (Bloomberg) -- An official with Venezuela’s state- owned economic development bank directed its bond-trading business to a New York brokerage in exchange for bribes from two of its employees, U.S. prosecutors said.
Maria Gonzalez, 54, vice president of finance at Banco de Desarrollo Economico y Social de Venezuela, Tomas Alberto Clarke Bethancourt, 43, and Jose Alejandro Hurtado, 38, were charged in a criminal complaint unsealed yesterday in federal court in New York.
Prosecutors said Clarke was a senior vice president and Hurtado an employee in the Miami office of the brokerage, which was identified in a lawsuit by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as Direct Access Partners LLC, or DAP.
“These latest charges certainly highlight the widespread corruption throughout the Venezuelan government and the immense sums of money available with no Venezuelan oversight,” Russ Dallen, head bond trader at Caracas Capital Markets, said yesterday in an e-mailed response to questions.
U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara in Manhattan said that the three defendants engaged in a conspiracy to pay bribes to Gonzalez in exchange for her directing the bank’s financial trading business to DAP. All three were arrested by agents with the Federal Bureau of Investigation on May 3 and presented in federal court in Miami on May 6.
The SEC said Hurtado, who lives in Miami, was the intermediary between DAP and Gonzalez. The Venezuelan government has a majority ownership interest in the bank, known as BANDES, and provided it with substantial funding, according to the SEC.
Henry Bell, a lawyer for Clarke, had no comment on the charges. Frank Rubino, who represents Hurtado, and Jane Moscowitz, a lawyer for Gonzalez, didn’t immediately return phone messages yesterday seeking comment on the allegations.
Phone calls to DAP’s offices yesterday after regular business hours weren’t answered.
From April 2009 through June 2010, Clarke, Hurtado and Gonzalez participated in a conspiracy in which Gonzalez directed trading business which she controlled to DAP and in return, agents and employees of the broker-dealer split the more than $60 million in mark-ups and mark-downs from trading with BANDES, the U.S. alleged.
Clarke and Hurtado allegedly devised a scheme with Gonzalez to split commissions which BANDES paid the broker-dealer, and the government said Gonzalez received monthly kickbacks from DAP and its employees which prosecutors said “were frequently in the six-figure amounts.”
Gonzalez, who was in charge of overseas trading for BANDES, made at least $3.6 million in kickbacks from the scheme according to prosecutors. In exchange, Gonzalez allegedly directed bank business to DAP. Hurtado and his wife made millions from DAP in salary, bonuses and finder’s fees in connection with the BANDES business, prosecutors said. Millions more went to a foreign entity controlled by Clarke, which then transferred some of the money to a Swiss account for Gonzalez’s benefit, according to the government.
In addition to generating money on mark-ups and mark-downs, Clarke caused DAP in January 2010 buy and sell the same bonds for BANDES on the same day.
“The result of such trades was that BANDES was left with the same bond holdings as before the trades, except that it had paid the broker-dealer approximately $10.5 million in mark-ups in the course of the two round-trip transactions,” the U.S. government said in its complaint.
The SEC’s lawsuit against Clarke and Hurtado includes as defendants Haydee Leticia Pabon, 33, who is Hurtado’s wife, and Iuri Rodolfo Bethancourt, 40, a resident of Panama. According to the SEC, Clarke and Bethancourt are “apparent relatives.”
Bharara’s office yesterday filed a civil forfeiture lawsuit seeking control of bank accounts used in the alleged scheme and Miami-area properties that Hurtado allegedly bought with his proceeds.
“The defendants’ arrests lay bare a web of bribery and corruption in which employees of a U.S. broker-dealer allegedly generated tens of millions of dollars through transactions in order to fund kickbacks to a Venezuelan government official in exchange for her directing the Venezuelan economic development bank’s financial trading business to their employer,” Bharara said yesterday in a statement. “The defendants also engaged in international money laundering to carry out their corrupt scheme.”
A BANDES press official, who declined to be identified because of bank policy, declined to comment on the charges. An official in Venezuela’s finance ministry, who declined to be identified because of ministry policy, also declined to comment. A representative of the Information Ministry, who couldn’t be identified because of ministry policy, declined to comment.
Gonzalez is charged with conspiracy to violate the Travel Act, violation of the Travel Act, money laundering and money laundering conspiracy. Clarke and Hurtado are each charged with conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, violation of the FCPA, Conspiracy to violate the Travel Act, violation of the Travel Act, money laundering and money laundering conspiracy.
The money laundering and money laundering conspiracy charges carry maximum prison terms of 20 years.
The case is U.S. v. Clarke, 13-mag-00683, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan). The SEC case is Securities and Exchange Commission v. Bethancourt, 13- cv-03074, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York.
--With assistance from Nathan Crooks in Caracas and Joshua Gallu in Washington. Editors: Michael Hytha, Peter Blumberg
Good morning, I have attached our Report on Venezuela to this email, in which we cover the eventful first three weeks of the administration of Nicolas Maduro. I call it the Lindsey Lohan scenario -- it's not as hot as it was (9 people were killed in election-related violence the first week), but it is still WAY out-of-control!
This weekend marks one month that my former Oppenheimer investment bank partner Johnny Pettus has been detained without bail in jail at the SEBIN secret police headquarters Heliocoide, when the government raided and closed down the Oppenheimer office in Caracas, along with simultaneously raiding Johnny's home for "illicit foreign currency trading." ( http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=10717&ArticleId=737339 ). I owned half the Oppenheimer investment bank franchise in Venezuela until mid-2007, when I sold my half to my then-partner Johnny. Sadly, this may make that sale the best trade of my life. In May of 2010, the government also raided our BBO offices in Caracas along with those of our largest competitor Econoinvest. Though the government arrested no one from our office, 4 people from Econoinvest were held for 2 years and 7 months without ever being convicted before they were released on bail on the last day of December last year. Their trial is still ongoing....
With that said, things continued to be Lindsey Lohan crazy in Caracas. Maduro's government arrested another American (Johnny is a US citizen as well), Tim Tracy, an actor and film-maker, and charged him as a spy. Obama denied that this weekend, but Venezuela doubled-down on the charge. I do not believe Tracy is a spy -- the closest he ever comes to working for the government is in an episode of the Geena Davis/Donald Sutherland series Commander-in-Chief when he plays a low-level White House administrative aide (you can watch the video here http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=10717&ArticleId=760043 , as well as the trailer for another movie called Senseless where he plays a gay boyfriend. Given where he is, if the government or fellow prisoners believe either of these movies is reality, these two roles are probably not helpful).
Several clients have asked me for my thoughts on the Tracy incident. Personally, I believe that the government arrested Tracy to get his videos. He has been filming the conflicts and student movements against Chavez and now Maduro for most of last year. He has in depth interviews with the various student leaders as well as behind-the-scenes protest and fight footage. If they got all his video, it was a treasure trove of information for the government. As I have noted in this weekly email before, the students are the violent wild-card in this battle with the government. http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/04/15/guest-post-venezuelans-wake-up-to-economic-realities/#axzz2SWWXHx5x
Shortly after Tracy's arrest, the Government used some of Tracy's footage to arrest Antonio Rivero, a retired General who had gone into Opposition against the government and even showed an edited version of some of Tracy's tape at the announcement following the arrest.
Then, the day before the opposing Capriles and Maduro May Day marches, 7 opposition deputies -- including a woman, beautiful svelte Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado -- were brutally attacked and beaten in the National Assembly. The clash was a wake-up call, and march routes of the opposing camps were changed to avoid any further violence on May 1. The Government then blamed the National Assembly attack on the Opposition lawmakers (in which no one from the government was injured, but left Machado and Borges with fractures) and made a tape to try (and badly fail) to prove it, complete with an ominous soundtrack from Call of Duty 4 (kid you not, you can Shazam it as it plays). (Government video is here http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=13303&ArticleId=768218 and shots from cell phones that prove the Opposition delegates were attacked here http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=10717&ArticleId=767095 ).
That would be enough for this missive for the week, but the week was still not over. The Opposition has dispatched members around Latin America to make their case for a recount (see my email from last week or request it again if you missed it) and expose the actions of the government. Opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez led a mission to Peru, where the Peru Foreign Minister is the UNASUR spokesman on the elections in Venezuela issue. The Peruvian Foreign Minister Rafael Roncagliolo came out and said:
“Peru is promoting that Unasur pronounce itself in asking for dialogue and tolerance in Venezuela…the second element of the Unasur declaration consists in asking that there be in Venezuela a climate of dialogue and tolerance, request that we maintain, request that I reiterate," said Roncagliolo. "It seems fundamental to us for both Venezuelans and the region that such a climate of dialogue, tolerance and mutual respect can be established.”
In a knee-jerk response to that tame diplomatic statement, Maduro recalled the Venezuelan Ambassador to Peru, saying
“You may be Peru’s Foreign Minister, but you can not give opinions about Venezuela. I do not accept that lack of respect towards the political process that Venezuela is living. I don’t accept it…But to involve yourself with Venezuela’s problems to give us advice, please, don’t," said Maduro. "You made a mistake Peruvian Foreign Minister, you have made the mistake of your life”
Then, in response to the recall of the Ambassador, the Vice President of the Congressional Foreign Affairs committee Lourdes Alcorta said that it was clear in Venezuela that there is no President, but that there is a monkey holding office who has stolen the powers of the people. (Video here: http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=10717&ArticleId=769672 ).
Never a dull moment in this Telenovela!
Until next week's chapter, please don't hesitate to let me know if we can be of any assistance. (PDF attached).
Analysis: Rough start to post-Chavez era augurs badly for Venezuela By Andrew Cawthorne | Reuters – 6 hrs ago
CARACAS (Reuters) - About the only tranquil place in Caracas over the last few days is a hilltop military museum housing the remains of late socialist leader Hugo Chavez.
Visitors tip-toe around his marble sarcophagus, reprimanded by guards if their voices rise above whispers.
Outside, a shell-shocked nation is still reeling both from Chavez's death from cancer last month and a week of violence and recriminations over the disputed election to succeed him.
Nightly protests - government supporters launch fireworks, opponents bang pots and bans - have been shaking the capital Caracas and most other major cities in the South American nation of 29 million people.
The beginning of Venezuela's transition into the post-Chavez era could hardly have been more raucous or controversial.
The dispute over Chavez protégé Nicolas Maduro's narrow presidential vote win led to the deaths of at least eight people.
It has also deepened the near 50-50 split in a nation polarized by Chavez's socialist policies, shown the fragility of Maduro's grip on the "Chavismo" movement, and left a raft of fast-accruing economic and social problems on the back burner.
"If we're at war among ourselves, everyone suffers," said construction worker Elias Simancas, 61, sitting on a bench in a square where police clashed with masked and rock-throwing protesters during riots after last Sunday's vote.
"We just want a country in peace," he said, expressing an oft-repeated sentiment by the less vocal but majority voices on both sides of the country's political conflict.
As well as longing for some quiet and normality after 14 years in the global spotlight under Chavez, Venezuelans also want plenty more tangible things on their street corners.
First on their wish list is an end to murders, kidnappings and violent robberies that rival the world's worst crime spots and leave many Venezuelan towns and cities eerily quiet at night.
Beyond that, most Venezuelans of all political creeds want an end to runaway price rises, shortages of basic products, power cuts, potholes, cronyism in politics, and the insulting rhetoric between politically divided neighbors and families.
"I'm sick of it. I want out. How can I bring up kids in this country?" said Manuel Pereira, a 39-year-old businessman who has seen his electronics importing company collapse due to lack of access to foreign currency under government controls.
Debating Venezuela's future with middle-class friends on Saturday morning as their children held weekend soccer training - instead of a local league match, canceled due to the unrest - he said he was going to use his Spanish roots to try and emigrate this year.
CHAVEZ'S SHOES IMPOSSIBLE TO FILL
Just as during Chavez's two-year battle with cancer, his re-election last year, and his death on March 5, ideological disputes rather than grassroots issues fill the headlines and dominate government and opposition agendas.
Opposition candidate Henrique Capriles' decision to contest Maduro's election victory - by less than 2 percent, or 265,000 of nearly 15 million votes - uncorked passions and resentments built up during Chavez's rule.
The day after the election, Venezuela teetered on the edge of all-out crisis as pro-opposition hard-liners took to the streets in protests that turned violent and, according to the government, killed eight and injured many more.
Capriles publicly distanced himself from the bloodshed - blaming government instigators for the violence and accusing officials of exaggerating and exploiting the trouble - and called off a march in Caracas that may have turned violent.
The election board then agreed to audit the result, helping to take more heat out of the immediate situation.
Longer-term, the political standoff remains unresolved.
Though safely sworn-in, endorsed by his peers in South America and very unlikely to see his win overturned by the audit, Maduro cannot hide from some obvious conclusions after the vote.
Clearly he failed to replicate Chavez's popularity despite presenting himself as his devoted "son" and deploying much of the state apparatus at his service for an emotion-charged election just five weeks after Chavez's death.
Lacking the charisma and iron grip of his mentor, and with a weaker mandate at the polls, Maduro may now struggle to keep the ruling Socialist Party together given its competing interests and factions ranging from socialist ideologues to military chiefs and businessmen.
There have already been a handful of calls from within the movement for a period of soul-searching and for improving social services to win back the more than half-a-million 'Chavistas' who defected to Capriles during the election campaign.
"Let what needs correcting be corrected and what needs rectifying be rectified," said Foreign Minister Elias Jaua.
Furthermore, though Maduro condemns his opponents as "fascists" and "ultra-right," almost half of Venezuelans voted against him and question his legitimacy given opposition leaders' claims of thousands of irregularities on polling day.
Many Venezuelans are deeply frustrated that their OPEC nation is not doing better economically despite being rich in natural resources from abundant rivers for hydropower to the world's largest oil reserves.
OPPOSITION WAITING GAME
Opposition supporters are downhearted at having come so close to the prize but just missed out.
The Democratic Unity coalition is also a disparate and fragile mix of right- and left-wing parties and competing egos.
Capriles' surprisingly strong showing - most opinion polls before the vote had left him for dead - has cemented his standing as the undisputed opposition flag bearer and reduced the probability of what many had anticipated would be an opposition implosion after a comfortable Maduro win.
But Capriles faces public vilification by Maduro, possible legal charges against him over the violence, and a potential move to debar him from the governorship of Miranda state, where he is serving a second four-year term.
"They should get rid of him and find a proper democrat to run the opposition," said Andrea Lopez, a government supporter in Caracas' largest slum, Petare, saying Capriles should be put behind bars for the week's events.
"Some of my 'Chavista' neighbors even voted for him. They were deceived by his lies. Now they have seen the wolf in sheep's clothes. If he had won, we would have lost everything," she added, listing the health, education and other welfare projects that sprung up in her neighborhood under Chavez.
With Maduro in a tricky situation and the economy slowing, Capriles will likely look to consolidate an image as Venezuela's president-in-waiting.
"This is unfolding chapter by chapter," Capriles said. "The whole system is collapsing. It is a castle built on sand."
The awkward economic backdrop adds to Maduro's challenges, especially if the gloom-and-doom predictions of most Wall Street and private analysts are to be believed.
They see economic growth slowing from 5.6 percent in 2012 to perhaps half of that or even lower this year, inflation heading for 30 percent, bottlenecks in dollar supply for businesses, and shortages of basics from flour and sugar to medicine and tampons.
"Time is on the opposition's side as the economic and likely also political dynamics may contribute to weaken the government," said Goldman Sachs analyst Alberto Ramos.
He predicts just 2.2 percent growth in 2013 and a minimum 25-percent currency devaluation in 2014 or earlier.
Balancing that, economic naysayers have exaggerated Venezuela's economic woes in the past, and the billions keep pouring in from the nation's oil production.
All the signs so far are that Maduro will stay faithful to Chavez's economic policies, including costly fiscal strategies to maintain and expand the social welfare "missions" that were the cornerstone of his late boss's popularity.
In the immediate aftermath of Chavez's death, Maduro, a burly former bus driver who became foreign minister, was seen in many quarters as an affable and experienced diplomat who could be a potential reformer and bridge-builder.
There was talk of possible free-market economic tweaking, rapprochement with the United States, dialogue with the opposition and amnesty for political prisoners.
But his need to imitate Chavez's rhetoric during the campaign, then the post-election dispute, have seen him looking every bit the hard-liner in public.
That may be exacerbated by his dependence on the support of tough-talking National Assembly head Diosdado Cabello, the country's second most powerful official, who had been seen as a candidate for the top job before Chavez gave his blessing to Maduro.
Cabello showed his teeth last week, banning opposition legislators from speaking unless they recognized Maduro's win.
"Capriles wants chaos," said Cabello, a former military comrade of Chavez who keeps strong ties with the security forces and is seen as the muscle in government behind Maduro.
"But we're not idiots! There is no weakness. We swear to defend Chavez's legacy."
(Additional reporting by Girish Gupta, Deisy Buitrago, Mario Naranjo, Brian Ellsworth; Editing by Daniel Wallis, Kieran Murray and Xavier Briand)
Opposition, election body differ on Venezuela vote audit By Daniel Wallis and Deisy Buitrago | Reuters – 2 hrs 10 mins ago
CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's opposition and electoral authority expressed on Saturday widely differing expectations for an audit of the contested April 14 presidential election, a day after Nicolas Maduro was sworn in to succeed the late Hugo Chavez.
Opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who says there were thousands of irregularities, wants a manual recount of all ballots cast in the vote, but has accepted the electoral body's decision to carry out a more limited electronic audit.
That move by the National Electoral Council's (CNE), the night before Maduro's inauguration, helped calm tensions after the government said opposition-led protests killed eight people and both sides accused the other of potting more violence.
The opposition said on Saturday that the audit, which is expected to take a month, must examine all aspects of the vote.
Official results showed Maduro winning by less than 2 percentage points in a much closer race than had been expected for the presidency of the OPEC nation with the biggest oil reserves in the world.
"This is going to be a long process ... and our people have to stay alert," Carlos Ocariz, national director of Capriles' team, told a news conference. "We want to know the truth. Once we see what happened last Sunday, a new phase can begin."
Ocariz said an opinion poll showed a majority of Venezuelans supported the call for a manual vote-by-vote recount, a more comprehensive review than the authorities agreed to conduct.
He also denounced what he said were cases of state employees being persecuted over suspicions they voted for the opposition.
Meanwhile, the CNE sought to temper the hopes of Capriles supporters that the audit will produce a different outcome.
"We will not let something that aims to verify whether the system worked be turned into a sort of public impeachment that tries to question the results," CNE rector Sandra Oblitas told reporters at the council's headquarters.
"As always, when the CNE announces results to the country, it is because they are irreversible."
The body's president, Tibisay Lucena, has also cautioned against anyone raising "false expectations" from the audit.
On Thursday, the electoral authority said it would widen to 100 percent an audit of electronic votes from a previous audit on election day that reviewed 54 percent of the machines.
Venezuelans vote electronically, but the machines also print out paper receipts of each vote that are kept in boxes. The audit involves counting the paper ballots at some stations to ensure they are consistent with the machine-tallied results.
MADURO SWORN IN
Maduro, a burly former bus driver whom Chavez named as his preferred successor before dying from cancer last month, was sworn in on Friday at a ceremony in Caracas attended by heads of state including the leaders of Brazil, Argentina, Cuba and Iran.
In his first speech as president, Maduro paid homage to his late boss, and at times seemed to reach out to the opposition. "I'm ready to talk even with the devil," he said.
At other times, the 50-year-old revived his combative language from the campaign trail, condemning his rivals as fascists who wanted chaos and had tried to unseat him in a coup.
As well as welcoming high profile guests such as Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff to his inauguration, Maduro has also received the backing of South America's Unasur bloc of nations, whose leaders met in Peru the night before the ceremony.
Among the presidents who flew on to Venezuela after debating the post-election dispute was Argentina's Cristina Fernandez, who on Saturday visited the hilltop military museum in Caracas where the marble sarcophagus of her close friend and ally Chavez is on display.
"I felt a knot in my stomach and my eyes filled with tears," she said on Twitter, describing how loudspeakers in the museum played a recording of Chavez singing the national anthem.
Fernandez's vocal support for Maduro brought a sharp response from Capriles, who says Chavez frittered away Venezuelans' birthright by "gifting" oil revenue to political allies through subsidized fuel supplies and other aid.
"Has Argentina's president brought a check for the millions of dollars she owes the Venezuelan people?" he asked on Twitter.
"It is the people who funded Senora Cristina's election campaign ... To those who are visiting Venezuela and owe us, we ask you to PAY! Those resources belong to the people."
(Additional reporting by Pablo Garibian; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne and Paul Simao)
Venezuela is in total confusion. After the vote Capriles asked for a recount and Maduro accepted. Then Maduro did an about face. A couple of days later Maduro accepts an audit but the CNE, the election board does not go along and wants to send the mess to the supreme court, a bunch of hand picked Chavista judges.
The opposition is banging on pots and the Chavistas are firing unending barrages of fireworks. If there is an alien civilization near by, they will pick up planet Earth by our noise. I don't have a cue how this will end.
Historically tyrannical governments that don't let go of the iron grip are very hard to remove but at any sign of weakness they can quickly cave in. I mentioned the other day that was was coming was a game of chicken but tis is ridiculous. First Maduro blinks then about turns. Then Capriles takes a hard stand but blinks when threatened with violence. Now Maduro blinks again but the CNE takes a hard stand. How can anyone make heads or tails of it?
Yesterday Miguel had this to say:
Maduro Blinks, Recount Will Take Place » Madurosilla
Despite all the bravado, all the refusal to recount and even Luisa Estela’s opinion, the CNE spent a full nine hours yesterday discussing the possible recount and magically. an hour before UNASUR was to recognize Maduro but strongly request a recount, the CNE announced that the 46% of ballot boxes would be audited.
You have to realize that the other 54% was not 100% audited and that an audit is truly a recount, as votes, machines and voting notebooks have to match in detail.
So, what happened? Simply, Maduro was forced to blink. It was not only UNASUR, but also the Venezuelan military that exerted its pressure and force the acceptance of the recount that Maduro had backtracked on. And opposition radicals can claim what they want, but 46% is statistically VERY significant. Any discrepancy, any irregularity, any inconsistency will certainly come out in this audit.
Maduro may look really bad after this recount…
What Maduro and his cronies did not realize is how sensible a recount sounds no matter how partisan you may be. Thus, internationally, Maduro accepting the recount only to “recular” (go back) the next day, looked certainly suspicious to say the least.
For Capriles, this is a win-win situation. He knows the hundreds of irregularities in the voting and his team will focus on it. Any ballot box not present, any inconsistency and those votes will be subtracted from Maduro’s lead. Add Capriles 57,000 international votes and Maduro’s lead of 270,000 could easily melt into the 100,000 lead.
And make him look even weaker.
And what do you say at that point? If all irregularities add up to something significant, the road ahead could be quite difficult.What happens if Maduro’s lead is reduced to 100 thousand or even less? Do they audit the remainder votes?
But it could get tricky as soon as next week, when the audit begins and Capriles’ team asks for international observers and the CNE refuses them. Or Tibisay says in this audit no actual ballots will be counted. The road will not be easy or simple.
But I am told the military knows what happened in detail on April 14th.Thus, Maduro blinked, but not only because of UNASUR, but because the military knew what was happening on Sunday. The Government claimed all afternoon that Maduro was ahead by as much as 10%, only to announce a small (<2%) victory at the last minute and rushing the proclamation of Maduro, and event that has always taken two or three days to take place.
And the military is divided. Yes, they have opinions, but leadership, true leadership, is nowhere to be seen on either of the two sides. Or maybe they are afraid to show their true colors.
But in the meantime, Maduro blinks and backtracks, Tibisay goes back on her words and Luisa Estela is made to look like the obeying fool everyone knows she is.
The whole thing is more volatile than most people imagine. Maduro was weak, even if he won. But his performance since has weakened him even further, while many of his comrades wonder why Hugo picked Nicolas, if they are so much better than him.
Things could change so fast, that I can’t predict a month, let alone a year. And as I had suggested before the election, politics is a new game in Venezuela. Chavez dominated politics and the agenda for fourteen years, but Capriles has lead the first political fight of the post-Chavez ear and he seems to have won resoundly.
In fact, Maduro may want to sound tough, but in reality nobody fears him, after all, Capriles and others already made him blink…
Capriles blinked first, we lose again. There is this incredibly naive belief that dictators can be dethroned by voting, history to the contrary. In 2002 I did a survey of the life expectancy of a number of well known dictators, from our very own Juan Vicente Gomez and including such notables as Mao, Hitler, Stalin, Franco, Oliveira Salazar, Castro, Saddam Hussein, Chapita (Rafael Trujillo) and a few others.
These were ousted or killed outright
Allende Bishop Chapita Hitler Noriega Mussolini Saddam
all but one (Chapita) was done in by a foreign power. These died of natural causes:
Juan Vicente Gomez
Antonio Oliveira Salazar
Mao Tse Tung
1959-? ? ?
Hugo Chavez Frias
Based on these observation I forecast that Chavez would die of natural causes while still in power. i was spot on even if I didn't figure he'd go early victim of cancer. It's hard to tell this early if Maduro will grow into the job but so far he is playing the dictator perfectly. To stay in power you have to be ruthless and the other side has to blink, which it did.
Canceling the march “was a responsible thing to do because you cannot win the battle when Maduro has all the guns and tanks,” Dallen said in a phone interview from Caracas. “But this is not the end of it at all.”
Not the end but another six years of Chavista dictatorship.
Capriles Calls Off Protest After Venezuela Threatens Crackdown 2013-04-17 03:30:01.0 GMT By Charlie Devereux and Corina Pons
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles Radonski took a step back from the brink of a mounting confrontation with the government by calling off a march planned for today to protest the results of the April 14 presidential election.
Capriles acted after Nicolas Maduro, proclaimed the winner by the national electoral council, vowed to come down with a “firm hand” on opposition supporters and seven people died in political violence, according to the public prosecutor. Capriles urged supporters to bang pots and pans at home to avoid violence. Maduro responded by telling his followers to drown out the protest with fireworks and music.
“We know that your agenda in the government is to try to get the country into a situation of confrontation and violence,” Capriles, 40, told reporters yesterday in Caracas. “Tomorrow we won’t mobilize.”
Tensions have escalated in Venezuela after a close result in an emergency election following the death of President Hugo Chavez March 5. While Capriles’ gesture averts the likelihood of bloodshed for now, Maduro’s response points to a protracted conflict, said Gregory Weeks, head of the department of political science at the University of North Carolina in Charlotte.
“This eases the tension, but I don’t know for how long,” Weeks, former director of Latin American studies at the university, said in a phone interview. Maduro’s response “is in many ways a provocation.”
Venezuela’s dollar-denominated bonds fell the most in almost 15 years yesterday as traders anticipated political instability will undermine the economy. Inflation accelerated to 25 percent in March, the fastest official rate in the region. The central bank’s scarcity index, which measures the amount of goods that are out of stock in the market, rose to a record high of 20.4 percent in January.
Maduro will be sworn in on April 19 even as the opposition insists irregularities affected about 300,000 votes, enough to overturn the result. Capriles said he believed he had won the election and is ready to concede defeat if a recount confirms Maduro’s victory.
Maduro said he didn’t recognize Capriles as the governor of Miranda state. Capriles, who the electoral council said took 49 percent of the votes, temporarily stepped down as governor to run for president. Maduro won the race with 50.8 percent of the votes, the council said.
“I’m going to take legal measures, because you have violated the constitution and assassinated the people,” Maduro said, referring to the opposition leader, after the march was called off.
The nationwide protests also left 61 injured and led to the arrest of 135 people, Public Prosecutor Luisa Ortega Diaz said. Opposition protesters have attacked health centers and local offices of the ruling socialist party, Maduro said.
“You won’t go to downtown Caracas to fill it with blood and death,” Maduro, 50, said yesterday in comments broadcast on state television. “This is a chronicle of a coup foretold.”
Capriles, in an interview with CNN’s Spanish-language channel yesterday, said “the government wants violence. We are calling for peace.”
In 2002, Chavez was overthrown for two days after opposition street protests in Caracas turned violent. A decade earlier, Chavez became a national figure by leading military rebels in a failed coup against President Carlos Andres Perez.
Protests should die down in the coming days or weeks after the march was canceled, said Francisco Rodriguez, senior Andean economist at Bank of America Corp. Rodriguez said he thinks Capriles doesn’t have enough evidence to overturn the result.
The country’s bonds due in 2027 dropped 6.89 cents to 91.22 cents on the dollar yesterday, the biggest decline since August 1998. The yield rose 95 basis points, or 0.95 percentage point, to 10.44 percent, the highest since November.
Bonds will continue to fall as the future of Venezuela remains unclear amid the political dispute and the potential of violence remains high, said Russell Dallen, the head trader at Caracas Capital Markets.
Caracas was flooded with music, fireworks and the sound of pots and pans being banged last night for more than an hour as supporters from both sides showed loyalty to their leaders.
Chavez, who tapped the world’s biggest oil reserves to reduce poverty, left the country polarized as he nationalized more than 1,000 companies or their assets and implemented currency and price controls that created food shortages and fueled inflation.
Canceling the march “was a responsible thing to do because you cannot win the battle when Maduro has all the guns and tanks,” Dallen said in a phone interview from Caracas. “But this is not the end of it at all.”
Venezuelan rivals rally supporters, four people reported dead Reuters/Reuters - Supporters of opposition leader Henrique Capriles demonstrate for a recount of the votes in Sunday's election, in Caracas, April 15, 2013. REUTERS/Tomas Bravo
By Brian Ellsworth and Andrew Cawthorne
CARACAS (Reuters) - Violent clashes over Venezuela's disputed presidential election have killed four people, the state news agency said on Tuesday, as both sides in the stand-off planned rival demonstrations.
The deaths occurred when hundreds of protesters took to the streets in various parts of the capital, Caracas, and in other cities on Monday, blocking streets, burning tires and clashing with security forces, in some cases.
The AVN news agency said two people were killed in Miranda state, which includes part of Caracas, one in Tachira state on the border with Colombia, and another in western Zulia state. It gave no further details.
In one of the confrontations, police fired tear gas and rubber bullets in a running battle with masked, rock-wielding opposition supporters in a wealthy district of Caracas.
Opposition leader Henrique Capriles is demanding a recount of the votes from Sunday's election after official results showed a narrow victory for ruling party candidate Nicolas Maduro, the acting president.
Capriles said his team's figures show that he won the election and he has called his supporters into the streets for peaceful demonstrations.
The National Electoral Council refused to hold a full recount, saying a 54 percent audit of the widely respected electronic vote system had already been carried out.
The election was triggered by the death of socialist leader Hugo Chavez last month after a two-year battle with cancer. He named Maduro as his successor before he died and his protege won the election with 50.8 percent of the vote against Capriles' 49.0 percent.
Both sides have urged their supporters to hold peaceful demonstrations nationwide on Tuesday, raising fears of more unrest in the oil-exporting nation of 29 million people, which has seen plenty of political turbulence in the last few decades.
"Imagine if I went crazy and called the people and armed forces onto the street? What would happen in this country? How many millions would pour onto the street?" Maduro said late on Monday, blaming Capriles for the violence.
"We're not going to do it. This country needs peace. Where are the opposition politicians who believe in democracy?"
The unrest in Caracas included demonstrations outside the offices of state television channel VTV and the home of the head of the election authority.
Capriles, the governor of Miranda state, hopes to highlight the weakness of Maduro's mandate and stir up opposition anger over his charge that the electoral council is biased in favor of the ruling Socialist Party.
The strategy could backfire if demonstrations turn into prolonged disturbances, such as those the opposition led between 2002 and 2004, which sometimes blocked roads for days with trash and burning tires and annoyed many Venezuelans.
A return to prolonged trouble in the streets could renew questions about the opposition's democratic credentials on the heels of their best showing in a presidential election, and just as Capriles has consolidated himself as its leader.
LEGAL MOVE AGAINST CAPRILES?
Senior government figures have raised the possibility of legal action against Capriles.
"Fascist Capriles, I will personally ensure you pay for the damage you are doing to our fatherland and people," National Assembly head Diosdado Cabello said on Twitter, requesting that state prosecutors open a criminal investigation.
But the opposition leader says he will fight on.
"We are not going to ignore the will of the people. We believe we won ... we want this problem resolved peacefully," Capriles told a news conference.
"There is no majority here, there are two halves." Opposition sources say their count showed Capriles won by more than 300,000 votes.
His team says it has evidence of some 3,200 election day irregularities, from voters using fake IDs to intimidation of volunteers at polling centers. It wants an exhaustive check of the paper-ballots printed at the time of casting a vote.
The focus of Monday's protests in the capital was the Plaza Altamira, which was often site of opposition demonstrations during Chavez's polarizing 14-year rule. Burned-out debris and glass lay strews on the ground on Tuesday morning.
"We will protest for as long as it takes. We will not give up the streets," said Carlos Cusumano, a 20-year-old student who took part in the protest.
Wearing T-shirts wrapped around their faces, some demonstrators threw sticks and stones at the ranks of police, who wore body armor and carried shields.
Maduro, who had initially said he was open to a recount, called on his supporters to demonstrate all week. The official results showed him winning by 265,000 votes.
"Maduro won and the people have proclaimed him," said dental technician Alicia Rodriguez, 38. "Learn to lose!" she added in reference to the opposition's stance.
The head of the electoral authority, Tibisay Lucena, shot down the opposition leader's call for a recount, saying "threats and intimidation" were not the way to appeal its decisions.
She also accused the U.S. government and Organization of American States of trying to meddle in Venezuelan affairs after they backed the idea of a vote audit.
The controversy over Venezuela's first presidential election without Chavez on the ballot in two decades raised doubts about the future of "Chavismo" - the late president's self-proclaimed socialist movement - without its towering and mercurial founder.
Chavez named Maduro as his heir in an emotional last public speech to the nation before his death, giving the former foreign minister and vice president a huge boost ahead of the vote.
But Maduro's double-digit lead in opinion polls evaporated in the final days as Capriles led an energetic campaign that mocked Maduro as a non-entity and focused voters on daily problems ranging from crime to inflation and creaking utilities.
Maduro's margin of victory raises the possibility he could face future challenges from rivals in the leftist coalition that united around Chavez, who won four presidential elections.
At his last election in October, the former soldier beat Capriles by 11 percentage points even though his battle with cancer had severely restricted his ability to campaign.
(Additional reporting by Diego Ore and Girish Gupta; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne and David Storey)
Venezuela: An Election That Reeks Of Fraud Posted 04/15/2013 07:01 PM ET
Latin America: Venezuela's election on Sunday, which saw bus driver Nicolas Maduro declared the winner by a razor-thin margin, reeked of electoral fraud. Kudos to challenger Henrique Capriles for calling it out.
Fraud is a strong word but, yes, it's the clearest conclusion from Venezuela's election Sunday to pick a successor to the late socialist dictator Hugo Chavez.
Chavez's hand-picked successor "won" Venezuela's election Sunday, with what Chavez's anything-but impartial CNE electoral body declaring he'd gotten 50.6% of the vote, while his challenger, Miranda state governor Henrique Capriles Radonski garnered 49.07% — a gap of just 235,000 votes. That's suspicious right there, given the structural advantages and Chavez "sympathy votes" Maduro had yet couldn't turn into a victory.
Polls — every one of them — showed that Capriles had crossed over to a tie or lead in the last week of the campaign, while the size of his spirited million-strong rallies — the largest since 2002 — told the same story.
Capriles says he had enough evidence amid a stream of down-ballot irregularities — from Chavista motorcycle goons intimidating voters to ballot boxes strewn across the Barinas state — to believe he had won.
Yet Maduro, a wooden candidate almost totally lacking in charisma, somehow was the people's choice.
His angry victory speech threatening voters was an odd thing, given his razor-thin margin of victory and presumed need to unify the country to govern.
Obviously, he was trying to hold together his base, which in fact is crumbling as his Chavista political rivals now call for "self criticism." That's not a good sign.
What's more he wasn't able to buy votes this time. Banker Russ Dallen of BBO Financial Services in Caracas points out that amid the shambles of Venezuela's public finances, Maduro didn't even have cash to dole out goodies to buy votes.
Perhaps the biggest reality that can't be ignored is that Chavez's, and by extension Maduro's, socialist record is one of massive failure.
Venezuela, with the world's largest oil reserves, is deeply in debt, has 30% inflation, repeated currency devaluations, empty store shelves, capital controls, crumbling infrastructure, and the world's worst crime and corruption.
The only place we've seen comparable results has been in Mexico during the PRI "perfect dictatorship" era of Mario Vargas Llosa's description, where a losing candidate in a stacked election would win by a small margin instead of a big one to preserve credibility.
As we go to press, tanks have been dispatched to the streets of the middle-class district of Altimira in the capital, a sign of the instability that comes of an election with zero credibility that couldn't even be disguised by Chavez's corrupt Chicago-style political machine.
Capriles has called for a recount and the White House, to its credit, has asked for an audit. They're unlikely to happen, given that the game of the Chavista machine is to hold on to power at any price.
They'll hold onto power with military tanks as the facade of Venezuelan democracy crumbles.
Venezuela Tense, As Electoral Board Rushes Maduro Proclamation by moctavio
So, the story is like this:
Yesterday, Maduro's team was telling diplomats and reporters that at 1:00 PM Maduro was ahead by 2% of the votes. At that time, it looked as if abstention was going to be more like 30% of the total number of voters. In the next couple of hours, participation increased dramatically, but the increase was higher in traditionally more pro-opo centers than in pro-Chávez centers. However, by 4 PM Chavismo was projecting a victory by 1-2% of the vote.
Meanwhile in Capriles' camp, all that was being counted at that point was participation. They had the same 30% abstention projection at 1 PM, but then it accelerated and they began projecting 22-23% abstention at the end of the day. But they could see the details and the participation by 4 PM in the more pro-opo centers was 75% (top 50% pro-opo centers) versus 69% in the pro-Chávez centers.
When the Actas began arriving, the opposition counting center began seeing a virtual tie from the time it had 20% of the tallies. Essentially, within the error of the tally, it was impossible to predict who was winning. If you added the international votes, then they would get a Capriles victory.
This continued and the Capriles team was hearing that Chavismo was saying that Maduro had an advantage of a quarter of a million votes. As the night went on, Capriles decided to call Maduro and told him that his numbers were saying the race was too tight and any announcement should be held off. Maduro told Capriles that he had to check (??) and never called back. Within twenty minutes CNE made the announcement.
Meanwhile, at the CNE, Vicente Diaz had argued that no announcement should be made and they should wait to reconcile the numbers. Vicente Diaz also suggested that the CNE itself shoudl call for an audit, something it can do. He was voted down and the announcement was made.
Today, Vicente Diaz went to CNE where there was supposed to be a meeting and instead found that Maduro would be proclaimed as the winner, while the meeting in which he was going to formally propose that a complete counting of the ballots and tallies be made, was not going to take place.
Thus, Vicente Diaz decided not to go to the proclamation.
At which point I ask: Why the rush? Why make the announcement if things were not clear or there were doubts? Why rush to proclaim Maduro if he was not planned to be sworn in until Thursday?
That is the big "if", Maduro who alraedy stars weak with a very small victory, makes himself more illegitimate by trying to be proclaimed early and while he claims he wants to count the boxes, the suggestion is this may not happen.
Meanwhile, Capriles was calling for people not to go out and protest, but instead participate in a pot banging tonight at 8 PM, as well as marches in all regional CNE's tomorrow and one on Wednesday to the CNE to formally request a complete recount of all the ballots and comparison with tallies and the voting notebooks.
But students had a mind of their own and began protesting in many parts of the country. In Caracas, near Plaza Altamira and the Autopista, students gathered to protest. Chavista motorcycles began showing up and there appeared that there would be confrontations. Then opposition motorcycles showed up and Chavistas fortunately left.
Meanwhile, the Government sent out the National Guard, who used tear gas to disperse the crowd away from the Autopista. I managed to get a little close at that time. Here are some protesters:
And here is the National Guard holding strong to stop students from going down to the Autopista:
And here is a picture of the fires the students built to stop the National Guard from going through:
And in the only gesture of peace and conciliation of the last 24 hours, Maduro ordered tonight that the National Guard withdraw from Alatamira and the Autopista.
Things are tense. Very Tense. Falcon said some Generals have been detained because they disagreed with decision to announce the results. Others tell me they are searching for Capriles' Minister of Defense "in pectore". The European Union, OAS, US and other UNASUR countries have sent the message they will not recognize Maduro until votes are counted again.
But I just don't believe any votes will be recounted and ballot boxes found in at elast eight places around the country, either being dispose of or being burned suggest I will be right. Fraud is the only word that comes to mind...
Venezuelan opposition calls for protests to demand recount By Marianna Parraga and Todd Benson | Reuters – 38 mins ago
CARACAS (Reuters) - Opposition leader Henrique Capriles on Monday called on Venezuelans to take to the streets and peacefully demand a vote recount if election authorities formally proclaim Hugo Chavez's chosen successor as the next president.
The day after Venezuela's election board declared acting President Nicolas Maduro winner of Sunday's presidential vote by a tight margin, Capriles insisted the opposition's own count showed he was the victor.
"We think we won the election. The other side thinks they won and we're both within our rights," Capriles, a 40-year-old state governor, said in a televised news conference.
"All we're asking is that our rights be respected, that the will of the people be respected, and that every single vote be counted, every little piece of paper, that paper isn't for recycling, it's proof."
The request appeared to fall on deaf ears.
Shortly after Capriles spoke, senior ruling party official Dario Vivas told Reuters the proclamation ceremony would go ahead and accused Capriles of trying to "destabilize" the country.
Conscious of Venezuela's long history of turbulent protests, Capriles urged his supporters to resist temptations to resort to violence. He called for Venezuelans to bang pots and pans in protest on Monday night if Maduro is formally proclaimed winner.
If the stalemate continues, Capriles asked his followers to gather in protest on Tuesday in front of election board offices around the nation. If there is still no sign of a recount by Wednesday, Capriles pledged to lead a peaceful march through the streets of Caracas to the election board's headquarters.
The controversy around Venezuela's first presidential election without Chavez on the ballot in two decades ushered in new uncertainty in the oil-rich country.
It also raised doubts about the future of "Chavismo," Chavez's self-proclaimed socialist movement, without its charismatic founder, who died from cancer on March 5.
Before dying, Chavez named his longtime protégé Maduro as his preferred successor, giving the former bus driver a huge boost heading into Sunday's election.
But the endorsement was not enough to ensure an easy victory for Maduro, who edged out Capriles with 50.7 percent of the votes, according to election board returns.
Capriles took 49.1 percent, just 235,000 fewer votes, according to the official count. Opposition sources told Reuters their count showed Capriles won by more than 300,000 votes.
A sense of normalcy reigned in Caracas on Monday despite the election tensions, with businesses open and traffic flowing, although there were some isolated protests.
About 200 pro-opposition students protested in an upscale district, trying to enter a hotel where unofficial foreign election observers were meeting. Outside the opposition's campaign headquarters, some protesters shouted "No more fraud."
Maduro, 50, said he would accept a full recount, even as he insisted his victory was clean and dedicated it to Chavez. Senior government officials, on state television and Twitter, ridiculed the opposition as sore losers and praised Venezuela's election system as foolproof.
"It's impossible to manipulate the election result," Jorge Rodriguez, Maduro's campaign chief, said on state TV.
The U.S. government backed the call for a full audit of the results and the Organization of American States offered to send election auditors to help. Chavista allies such as Russia and Cuba, which receives generous aid and subsidized oil from Venezuela, immediately congratulated Maduro.
Venezuela's election board is no stranger to controversy. Over the years, the opposition has repeatedly accused it of turning a blind eye to the blatant use of state resources in favor of pro-Chavez candidates. Critics say four of its five members are openly pro-government.
"The next few hours are critical," Pedro Benitez, a senior member of the opposition coalition, told Reuters. "The opposition has to get access to the ballot boxes, which are under custody of the (military)."
A similar situation gripped Mexico in 2006, when a leftist opposition candidate alleged fraud after losing a tight presidential race to Felipe Calderon. A partial recount followed and Calderon's victory was upheld.
(Additional reporting by Eyanir Chinea and Mario Naranjo; Writing by Todd Benson; Editing by Kieran Murray, Jackie Frank and Bill Trott)
Capriles refuses to concede Venezuela presidential election, demands recount
By Juan Forero, Monday, April 15, 12:52 PM
CARACAS, Venezuela - Nicolas Maduro, the longtime loyal lieutenant of the late President Hugo Chavez, celebrated his apparent narrow victory in the presidential contest Monday, even as opponent Henrique Capriles refused to concede and demanded a recount, citing 3,200 irregularities on the day of the vote.
Instead of the resounding victory that many pollsters predicted for Maduro, who had the sympathy vote after Chavez died last month following a battle with cancer, his government begins on a shaky foundation with a questionable mandate. The margin of victory was just 235,000 votes.
“I want to say to the candidate of the government, the loser today is you,” Capriles said in an emotional press conference called moments after Maduro declared victory at the presidential palace where Chavez had given rousing speeches celebrating election wins.
He said that Maduro had benefitted from a vast state get-out-the vote machinery that included last minute tactics to bring voters to polls – including reopening closed polling stations.
“We are not going to recognize the results until each vote of the Venezuelan people is counted, one by one,” said Capriles, 40, an energetic lawyer and governor of economically important Miranda state. The Venezuelan electoral system is automated, but each vote also produces a paper receipt that can be counted by hand, according to electoral regulations.
One of the rectors of the National Electoral Council, Vicente Diaz, had called for a hand count after the results of the election were released. And in his victory speech, Maduro said, “We’re going to do it.”
“We’re not afraid – let the boxes talk,” said Maduro, 50, referring to the cardboard boxes that hold ballots. “That the truth be told.”
Still, on a tense Monday in which many businesses were shuttered, it remained unclear if a recount would take place.
The government continued with plans for a ceremony on Monday afternoon in which Maduro would be proclaimed the winner, to be followed days later by a swearing in ceremony. And the electoral council – which has five members, the majority of whom are allies of the government – had not said whether a recount would take place.
“These are the irreversible results that the Venezuelan people have decided with this electoral process,” Tibisay Lucena, the head of the council, said late Sunday as she read the results.
According to the council, voters gave Maduro 50.6 percent of the vote to 49.1 for Capriles, with 99 percent of the vote counted. It was unclear, though, if the Venezuelan vote from outside of the country – which analysts say is overwhelmingly opposed to Chavez – were included in that total.
In Washington, White House spokesman Jay Carney called Capriles’s request for an audit of votes an “important, prudent, and necessary step” to ensure that Venezuelans have trust in the election results.
The narrow margin was a letdown for many in Chavismo, the radical movement that Chavez founded, with the goal of turning Venezuela into a socialist state.
Capriles just wound up a press conference with the international press corps present, asking for a recount of the vote.
It seems the government wants to rush through the proclamation of Maduro without doing the recount. Capriles has asked publicly that people go to the state level electoral offices asking for a recount saying it's a local responsibility to do so. Should the recount not happen then he is calling for people to go to the national offices of the electoral body (CNE) to ask for the recount. In addition, he has asked people to join a cacerolazo (pot banging) tonight at 8 PM should there e no response from the CNE by then.
This is the closest call I have heard not to civil disobedience but to a public demand for a recount. Will the CNE accept? Will they call out the riot police to stop the people from asking for their rights? This could turn ugly quickly.
Capriles made the point that at least a million votes changed from Chavez in October to Capriles yesterday, proof that even Chavistas have had enough.
Capriles is a pretty good speaker. This isn't over as I feared yesterday. The game of chicken is now in force. Who will blink first?
I believe this is earlier news:
Henrique Capriles Wants Vote Recount in Venezuela Elections
By MANUEL RUEDA (@ruedareport) April 15, 2014 Henrique Capriles, has refused to accept the results of Sunday's presidential election in Venezuela until votes are fully audited.
According to Venezuela's National Electoral Council, Capriles, the opposition candidate, obtained 49 percent of the votes this weekend. That means he lost to government candidate Nicolas Maduro by just 1.5 percentage points.
Capriles claimed there had been hundreds of violations at voting stations across Venezuela on Sunday and asked for a full recount of the votes before he would accept defeat.
Don't let the term "hispanic" blind you. Obama is "un negrito," OIbama is "mi color." On the whole Venezuelans are a lot less racist than Americans but this also allows us to talk freely of color, nationality and other personal traits without being accused of racism. Chavez tried to bring race to the table but that essentially failed, only the very young, who didn't know better, fell for it. It should not come as a surprise that color and nationality are attractors even for people who would not be considered racist.
Second, the vote here was not about socialism vs, capitalism at all. Capriles is best described as a "Lula da Silva" style socialist. Even if he were if he were a capitalism at heart (I have no way of knowing but he certainly has capitalists in his lineage), he would not be able to turn Venezuela on a dime. It is important to remember that CAP was impeached mainly because he tried to bring economic freedoms to Venezuela (eliminate price controls, privatize state enterprises) some of which were not kindly received in great measure because he never prepared people for the transitory pain these changes bring. Raising the price of gas at the pump broke the camel's back and he was fired.
One can live with socialism and populism provided one's basic economic freedoms remain intact, specially the right to own property. One doesn't particularly care if the government is misspending oil income but one sure cares if one's home or business is taken away. Milton Friedman put it very nicely.
A final personal note: it is a rare privilege for an author to be able to evaluate his own work forty years after it first appeared. I appreciate very much having the chance to do so. I am enormously gratified by how well the book has withstood time and how pertinent it remains to today's problems. If there is one major change I would make, it would be to replace the dichotomy of economic freedom and political freedom with the trichotomy of economic freedom, civil freedom and political freedom. After I finished the book, Hong Kong, before it was returned to China, persuaded me that while economic freedom is a necessary condition for civil and political freedom, political freedom, desirable though it may be, is not a necessary condition for economic and civil freedom. Along these lines, the one major defect in the book seems to me an inadequate treatment of the role of political freedom, which under some circumstances promotes economic and civil freedom, and under others, inhibits economic and civil freedom. [emphasis added]
I analyzed the above in light of the Venezuela experience at Software Times Venezuela 2011.
I got home at 3:30 after a 4 and a half hour walk from Los Caobos to Altamira and back. I talked to a lot of people, no queues anywhere. Voting was quick. Capta-huella (finger print analyzer) was used only once not twice as last time. There seemed to be no delaying tactics by the government. Opposition people were very optimistic. I ran into some youth that I would not have thought were anti-Chavez.
A Maduro truck is going by my house this minute, totally illegal.
Let’s see how they steal the vote this time.
Tour of Caracas On Voting Day: No Lines, Some Abuses April 14, 2013
Update 1:47PM: I am told by reliable people that at 1 PM the percentage of voters that had cast their vote was running 10% behind the same number in October.
Sunny with just a hint of haze. It's 11:00 local time and I'm taking off for a walk to my voting station. I'll report any news on my return.
The feeling here is that abstention will decide the vote. If you don't vote the other guy wins. There is the belief among the opposition that Maduro cannot get out the vote. During the week I heard on the Metro a woman with a loud voice say: "lo que viene no sirve" (what is coming is no good). From other things she said it was clear that she was a Chavez devotee. If for her Maduro is as useless as Capriles, why bother voting? On the other side, in my building a lady is organizing transport for senior citizens to get them to vote.
If the vote is close the chavistas will steal it. Let's hope the difference is large enough that they cannot steal it.
There existed a very powerful economic group in Venezuela set up by an immigrant from the Canary Islands. Mendoza started out with a hardware store which he built into a construction supply empire including cement, ceramics, paint (Sherwin Williams), construction materials and even a mortgage bank. In addition the group made paper and paper products, and his daughter set up a foundation to treat bones for young invalids (Ortopédico Infantil), and even an art gallery. Grupo Mendoza was one of the most successful Venezuelan conglomerates ever. The old man never groomed a successor. His managers lived in constant political infighting. I know a lot of this from personal experience. Several of their companies were my clients while I was with IBM and later when I was an independent management consultant. These positions gave me access at the highest levels (excluding Mendoza himself). I got a chance to meet Mendoza personally when a painting sold by my mother in one of their auctions had a bad ending. But that is a story for another day. Today's story is that on his death, the Grupo Mendoza disintegrated quickly because there was no capable successor to carry on.
Chavez picked Maduro to be his vice-president because Maduro was the least threatening person he could find, a veritable lap-dog. I though there would be more infighting among Chavistas for the presidency. Some said that the president of the National Assembly should have been legally the presidential candidate. Diosdado Cabello is not all that popular in Chavista circles and he lost the gubernatorial election for Miranda State to Capriles.
Good Afternoon Carlos, Regarding the marina cats. We use approx. 8 kilos a week of cat food. Omar has been buying two 3 Kilo bags. Dellisa (Black girl feeding the cats) has been supplementing the cat food out of her personal stock (she has 2 cats). Would you please ask Omar to buy 8 kilos of cat food a week. Omar will need to buy 4 kilos twice a week. Regarding Monday (Day after election), we are concerned that there may be businesses closed or problems with traffic. Would you please ask Omar to buy double the cat food on this Friday so that we don't have a problem on Monday. So this Friday we will need 8 kilos (Friday's regular 4 kilos and Monday's -4 kilos). So on Monday- he will not need to buy food. He will buy cat food again- 4 Kilos on Friday.
El País: Capriles lidera la mayor concentración opositora desde 1999
El diario español El País informó en una nota a través de su portal web que el candidato presidencial por la Unidad, Henrique Capriles, lideró este domingo lo que sería la mayor concentración opositora en el país desde el año 1999.
"El evento, llamado “Caracas Heroica”, resultó la mayor concentración organizada desde 1999 por sectores distintos al chavismo" citó el medio.
Desde seis puntos de la capital de Venezuela marcharon cientos de miles de ciudadanos que apoyan la opción electoral de Capriles. La avenida Bolívar, que sirve tradicionalmente de prueba de fuego para cualquier opción electoral en Venezuela, no dio abasto para alojarlos.
El candidato opositor ratificó su poder de convocatoria y, con ello, envió un mensaje creíble de aliento y esperanza para que sus electores no deserten el próximo domingo, día de acudir a las urnas y en la que cada voto contará para decidir un resultado que se anticipa estrecho. Parece indudable que Capriles ha captado un impulso importante justo en la culminación de una campaña de apenas diez días que culminará el próximo jueves.
A diferencia del Capriles contemporizador de la campaña anterior, en esta ocasión el candidato de 40 años de edad apuntó sin remilgos a los puntos flancos de su contrario, el candidato oficialista y presidente encargado, Nicolás Maduro. “Nicolás, tú irás a ganar las elecciones en La Habana, pero yo voy a hacerlo aquí en Venezuela el 14 de abril”, dijo, fustigando al chavismo por su cercanía con el régimen de los hermanos Castro en Cuba. Ofreció la nacionalidad venezolana a todos los servidores cubanos que quieran quedarse a trabajar en Venezuela, pero avisó la expulsión del país de los asesores cubanos que actúen en los cuarteles de la Fuerza Armada venezolana.
Criticó la corrupción rampante entre los funcionarios del gobierno, a quienes llama “los enchufaos”, de los que puso como ejemplo al actual ministro de Petróleo y Minería y presidente de la petrolera estatal Pdvsa, Rafael Ramírez, a quien calificó como “el hombre más rico del país”. Invitó a los seguidores de Chávez a percatarse del contraste entre las condiciones en que ellos viven y el estilo de vida adoptado por la burocracia revolucionaria, y decidir a partir de allí su voto. "Yo no soy la oposición, soy la solución”, buscó reposicionarse Capriles, con un lema que busca sentir más cómodos a los votantes de Chávez que pudieran estar pensando en cambiar de opción esta vez.
Dijo que, así como en octubre tenía claro que los números no le iban a dar en su competencia electoral contra el comandante Chávez –a la postre, vencedor-, supuestamente venía de consultar algunos estudios de seguimiento de las tendencias de opinión favorables. "Vamos a ganar el próximo domingo”, afirmó Capriles, que lllamó a descartar el triunfalismo y a cuidar los votos de la oposición el 14 de abril.
La mayoría de los estudios dados a conocer hasta el momento, cuya cobertura de campo es anterior a la semana que termina, dan ventaja al contrincante de Capriles, el oficialista Maduro.
“Aceptaremos los resultados, sean lo que sean”, aseguró Maduro desde San Fernando de Apure, al suroeste del país, casi al mismo tiempo en que Capriles se apresuraba a hablar en Caracas. El delfín que Chávez escogió públicamente antes de morir y que ejerce de presidente encargado exigió el mismo compromiso de Capriles, ante la sospecha de que la oposición prepara una agenda oculta de desconocimiento del triunfo oficialista.
Maduro, que el jueves cerrará su campaña en Caracas, evitó durante su acto proselitista dos de las ideas principales que, sin embargo, habían vertebrado su discurso el día anterior. Una de ellas insiste en que el voto por Maduro es un asunto de lealtad al comandante fallecido. El candidato no tuvo empacho en afirmar el sábado, durante un discurso en una zona de población mayoritariamente amerindia, que votar contra maduro era votar contra sí mismos.
Asimismo, Maduro abandonó la denuncia que el sábado en la noche hizo desde Ciudad Guayana, según la cual mercenarios contratados por sectores contrarrevolucionarios de Miami (Florida, Estados Unidos) y de “la derecha salvadoreña” habrían entrado en territorio venezolano para atentar contra su vida.
The winners are the guys selling T-shirts, caps, flags and banners, they must have sold hundreds of thousands by the number of people I saw wearing them.
Last night the political music went on until quite late. Today it started at around 11 in the morning but they quit by 6 PM. What a relief. Hearing the same broken record over and over again is truly a PITA!
Around noon I left the house to walk to the produce market (open Tuesday to Sunday). I saw a fair number of Chavistas in "getting out the vote" mode but only a few were activists. I saw about six or eight Caprilistas (you recognize them by the T-shirts and caps) walking toward an opposition march. Instead of going home by the same route, I decided to take the Metro back. Where i got off I was met by a river if Caprilistas! It was the closest I have been to a political march in my 74 years of existence.
Seeing so many opposition people marching changed my mood for the better. The Chavistas have been very good at capturing their political base. Chavez was what we call a chameleon, changing his coloring to fit the mood. Over the past three or four years they dropped the public "like Cuba" stance which never did sit well with most Venezuelan. Instead they created an image of a loving Chavez - a "Corazón de mi pueblo" image. I was quite surprised when a few week ago our concierge declared for Chavez (a change of heart?) saying that the Chavistas were protecting the working classes. The concierge has been with us for over 20 years and I don't ever recall having any serious labor related problem with her. Still, the Chavistas won her over.
There can be no doubt that the Chavistas have a solid following and politically they have outmaneuvered the opposition by a wide margin. Seeing so many opposition marching today tells me that we are truly divided, maybe close to a 50-50 split. What worries me more is the economic situation, specially the exchange controls.
Today has been a god damn circus! The government must have pressed thousands of CDs with political music and they keep playing it over and over again. Getting the election over is going to be a big relief. The central theme is that Chavez lives and will never die, "Viva Chavez." They seem to have only corpses to adore: Bolivar, Che, Chavez. People voting for these corpses, do they think corpses can govern? Madness!
No comment necessary but it does make life more difficult...
Wall Street Journal: Venezuela Raids Local Brokerage of Oppenheimer By Kejal Vyas
CARACAS — Venezuelan authorities late Thursday raided the home and office of what they say is a local representative of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., the brokerage subsidiary of Oppenheimer Holdings Inc., OPY -1.19% for allegedly violating foreign-exchange regulations.
Venezuela's national intelligence agency, or Sebin, seized documents from Caracas brokerage Brisbane, Mendes de Leon, Pettus & Asociados that it says point to alleged buying and selling of dollars, according to a statement Friday from the Attorney General's office. Such activity would be prohibited in the South American country unless done through the government. The statement identified the company as a local representative of Oppenheimer & Co.
New York-based Oppenheimer did not respond to calls seeking comment.
The move comes as interim President Nicolas Maduro increases his calls for combating currency speculation in Venezuela, where a shortage of hard currency filtering through government channels has led to a spike in dollar demand on the black market. In recent speeches, Mr. Maduro has talked of cracking down on the illegal trade, which he says is run by "bourgeois" opponents engaged in economic sabotage against the ruling socialist party.
Authorities also "seized dollars, euros and firearms" from the house of brokerage owner John Gayle Pettus, the statement said. Calls to the office of Brisbane, Mendes de Leon, Pettus & Asociados and to employees went unanswered Friday, and they couldn't be reached for comment.
The Venezuelan government said it began a probe into the local brokerage on March 23 after it was notified of alleged "irregularities" at the company. The Attorney General's office said it found evidence allegedly linked to dollar exchanges at the site.
An Information Ministry statement earlier Friday indicated that Mr. Pettus, a Venezuelan citizen, had been detained, but it wasn't immediately clear if he was still being held or facing any charges.
Mr. Pettus couldn't be reached for comment. Spokesmen at the Information Ministry, as well as the Interior and Justice Ministry, said they had no further comment.
The U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority lists Mr. Pettus as a broker registered with Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.'s Venezuela office since 1993. A 2012 edition of Standard & Poor's directory shows Oppenheimer as the only U.S. broker listed with a Venezuelan affiliate.
Russ Dallen, a managing partner at Caracas Capital Markets, who was a partner at Mr. Pettus' brokerage until 2007, said he received calls from employees informing him of the raid Thursday afternoon.
Many economists blame the leftist regime's currency controls, implemented by the late president Hugo Chavez in 2003 to prevent capital flight, for the lack of dollars in the economy which has led to a sharp depreciation of the bolivar on the black market. The government has set a fixed exchange rate of 6.3 Venezuela bolivar per dollar, but dollars are traded at nearly 23 bolivar on the black market.
A scarcity of dollars has also led to widespread shortages of food and consumer goods, as companies in this import-heavy economy complain they lack access to the dollars they need to purchase products from abroad.
In 2010, Venezuela's government cracked down on a large parallel currency market and imprisoned several brokerage directors for allegedly violating currency controls. Four former directors of Econoinvest Casa de Bolsa CA, which was once Venezuela's biggest brokerage firm, were released in December after spending more than two years in prison. The directors have said they never violated exchange laws. Their trial is continuing.
You have to wonder if humans are all that rational after all. If they were, religions would be all dead.
Tales From Maduro’s Mind: Chavez’ Little Bird Apparition April 2, 2013
You can’t make this corny, stupid, silly stuff up. Interim President Maduro says that this morning he went to a small chapel made out of wood (Where? Made out of wood. Really Nicolas? He was also alone, praying, sure Nicolas, we believe you) and a little bird came in and chirped at him (Maduro repeats the sounds and everything) and he whistled back the same pretty chirp. And then comes the jump into the mystical, it was Chavez, he felt the spirit, blessing the campaign, yada yada yada…
Really, hard to make this stuff up. Hard to even think of saying such things.
Chigüire Bipolar gives up making jokes, says it is really hard to make things up after Maduro saying this.
Capriles Accepts Challenge Against Nicolas In Venezuela’s Election March 11, 2013
A forceful Henrique Capriles went on TV last night and accepted the challenge to run against Venezuela’s interim President Nicolas Maduro, in a speech that quickly proved what I suggested on Saturday: Politics is back in Venezuela now that Chavez is absent.
Capriles was extraordinary in a very strong speech, which was carefully thought out. At all times, Capriles was very respectful of Hugo Chavez and fairly dismissive of Nicolas Maduro, whom he referred to as Nicolas or “Nicolas, chico” all the time. In one of his best lines, Capriles said, “Nicolas is not Chavez and you all know it, even Chavez complained about those that surrounded him and those are the people that want to govern you”
He noted that the Government and Nicolas had been lying to the people and he was very inclusive, saying he was not running for himself or to get power, but because he wanted Venezuela to do better. He offered a Government for all.
On the lying, he suggested that Chavez had been dead a while, asking how come all of the t-shirt and flags were ready for the funeral and support for Nicolas.
He blasted the Minister of Defense, not only for his illegal support of Nicola’s candidacy, but also he told him he was a disgrace, finishing next to last in his military class.
He had very unkind words for the Head of the Electoral Board, who wore a revolutionary arm band at Chavez’ funeral an asked her for respect, not for him, but for the Venezuelans who are not Chavistas and for the law.
By being forceful and confrontational, Capriles was not only re-energizing the voters, was clearly choosing a different campaign strategy than the one against Chavez. He knew then he had to be respectful of Chavez and he is ever more respectful now, but now he is completely critical of Nicolas and his cohorts. Capriles also seems to recognize that politics changed in Venezuela when Hugo Chavez passed away on March 5th.
And that this is the case was proven immediately, when Nicolas could not wait and had to respond to Capriles within the hour, something Chavez would have never done. Nicolas came and tried to blast Capriles, but his speech was too forced. And in a clear sign that Chavismo is worried about participation in the upcoming election, Nicolas announced that on the same day there will be a referendum to change the Constitution so that Chavez can be buried in the Panteon Nacional immediately. This was clearly a ploy to have the Chavista rank and file more involved in the upcoming election, but Capriles and the opposition can simply bypass the issue by backing the referendum and saying that if the people want it, it should be done.
But more importantly, Nicolas’ speech demonstrated what a weak candidate and poor politician he is. The campaign is too short for Capriles to overcome the abuse of power of Chavismo and the sympathy vote, but it seems as if Capriles had given the whole thing a lot of thought. And in the opening moments of the campaign, score one for the challenger.
Venezuela's Capriles joins race, tussles with Chavez heir By Andrew Cawthorne and Marianna Parraga | Reuters – 43 mins ago
CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's opposition leader vowed on Sunday to fight late Hugo Chavez's preferred successor for the presidency next month and the pair quickly locked horns in an angry war of words.
Henrique Capriles, a 40-year-old state governor, will face election favorite and acting President Nicolas Maduro. The pair must register their candidacies for the April 14 vote on Monday.
The election will decide whether Chavez's self-styled socialist and nationalist revolution will live on in the country with the world's largest proven oil reserves.
"I am going to fight," Capriles said at a news conference. "Nicolas, I am not going to give you a free pass. You will have to beat me with votes."
Former Vice President Maduro, 50, a husky one-time bus driver and union leader turned politician who echoes Chavez's anti-imperialist rhetoric, is expected to win comfortably, according to two recent polls.
Maduro pushed for a snap election to cash in on a wave of empathy triggered by Chavez's death Tuesday at age 58 after a two-year battle with cancer. He was sworn in as acting president on Friday to the fury of Capriles.
"You have used the body of the president for political campaigning," Capriles said of Maduro on Saturday, triggering an angry rebuke.
Maduro accused Capriles of sowing hate.
"You wretched loser!" Maduro said of Capriles in a televised speech. "You have shown your true face - that of a fascist."
Capriles, the centrist Miranda state governor who often wears a baseball cap and tennis shoes, lost to Chavez in October. But he won 44 percent of the vote - the strongest showing by the opposition against Chavez.
Capriles has accused the government and Supreme Court of fraud for letting Maduro campaign without stepping down.
Opposition supporters were trying to raise their spirits despite the odds.
"There's no reason to think that the opposition is condemned to defeat," Teodoro Petkoff, an anti-government newspaper editor, said on his Sunday talk show.
MADURO RAILS AGAINST CAPRILES, IMPERIALISM
Maduro has vowed to carry on where Chavez left off and ratify his policy platform. He acknowledged he has big shoes to fill.
"I am not Chavez - speaking strictly in terms of the intelligence, charisma, historical force, leadership capacity and spiritual grandeur of our comandante," he told a crowd on Saturday.
Chavez was immensely popular among Venezuela's poor for funneling vast oil wealth into social programs and handouts.
The heavy government spending and currency devaluations have contributed to annual inflation of more than 20 percent, hurting consumers.
"Maduro's success will depend on if he can fix the economy and its distortions," said a former high-level official in the Chavez government who declined to be named. "If he does that, he could emerge as a strong leader instead of one who is an heir."
Maduro's first official meeting on Saturday was with officials from China, whom Chavez courted to provide an alternative to investment that traditionally came from the United States.
He has adopted his mentor's touch for the theatrical, accusing imperialists, often a Chavez euphemism for the United States, of killing the charismatic but divisive leader by infecting him with cancer.
Emotional tributes were paid at a religious service at the military academy housing Chavez's casket on Sunday. Several million people have visited his coffin so far and his remains will be moved on Friday to a museum where a tomb is being built to show his embalmed corpse.
He may be moved later to another site next to the remains of his hero: 19th century liberator Simon Bolivar.
Chavez scared investors with nationalizations and railed against the wealthy. In heavily polarized Venezuela some well-to-do citizens toasted his death with champagne.
If elected, Capriles says he would copy Brazil's "modern left" model of economic and social policies.
Given the state resources at Maduro's disposal and the limited time for campaigning, Capriles faces an uphill battle.
"If the opposition runs, they'll lose. If they don't run, they lose even more!" tweeted Andres Izarra, who served as information minister under Chavez.
The opposition rank-and-file is heavily demoralized after losing last year's presidential race and getting hammered in gubernatorial elections in December, stoking internal party divisions.
"There's no doubt that it's an uphill race for Capriles," local political analyst Luis Vicente Leon said. "The trouble is that given the race is so close to Chavez's death, emotions get inflamed and the candidate probably continues to be Chavez rather than Maduro."
(With reporting by Ana Isabel Martinez, Simon Gardner, Terry Wade, Pablo Garibian, Deisy Buitrago, Mario Naranjo and Enrique Andres Pretel; Editing by Stacey Joyce and Cynthia Osterman)
Si hubiera respeto por el marco legal hubieran habido elecciones a los treinta dias de no presentarse el presidete electo a su inauguración. La corte suprema decidió que Chávez se podia presentar a su inauguración cuando le viniera en gana y postpuso (efectivamente canceló) la elección presidencial. No habiendo presidente, no hay vice presidente pero Maduro sigue actuando como si lo fuera. El presidente encargado debería ser el presidete de la asamblea pero en los actos de ayer no se le vió a Diosdado Cabello por ningún lado supuestamente porque estaba enterrando a su madre quien habia muerto dos días antes.
De la oposición no se oye ni un murmullo.
Los militares juran defender la constitución pero llevan décadas saqueando al país y les pareció bién estar bajo la bota cubana (patria, socialism o muerte). Supuestamente hay 60.000 cubanos en Venezuela. Es posible que le dí trabajo a uno hace unos meses. No se le sentia acento. Fué él que me dijo ser cubano.
Anoche hubo un silencio extraño, casi sepulclar, en Caracas. Primero unos niños gritaron la noticia de la muerte de Chávez, fué así que me enteré de la novedad, pero pronto fueron callados. El silencio solo fué interrumpido por una bands de motorizados chavista gritando "¡Viva Chavez!" Será en otro mundo, si lo hay.
Ahora algunos hablan de elecciones en treinta dias. Mi mayor temor es que no haya tal elección. Desde hace años no hay legalidad en el país, solo la percepción de legalidad. Las instituciones existen pero obedecen (u obedecían) los mandatos y deseos del comandante. A falta del comandante hay una pugna de poder entre los chavista. No es por la patria sino por la danza de los millardos del petroleo, del tráfico de drogas e influencias y de todas la prebendas de estar en el poder. Estamos de regreso al caudillismo del siglo 19.
Las esperanzas de la oposición son:
- que hayan elecciones ya que ninguno de los candidatos chavistas tiene ni la sombra del carisma del comandante
- que el chavismo sin Chávez se desmorone en una pugna interena por el poder
- que los militares rectifiquen (hay que ser bien iluso para creer en esos apatridas)
Hay que recordar que en America Latina, cuando hay democracia, lo hay con la anuencia de los militares. Sabiendo esto, Rómulo Betancourt instauró "el bozal de arepa" hace mas de 50 años pero el bozal dejó de tener efecto con el criminal golpista fracasado Hugo Rafael Chávez Frias.
Nota casi cómica. Después de 15 años ininterrumpidos de insultos por parte de Chávez ahora Maduro le pide respeto a la oposición. ¡Que vaya a freir monos!
Reapareció Diosdado Cabello deificando a Chávez: "nunca lo olvadaremos." Hace unos años visité la tumba de un primo en la cual la inscripción decia lo mismo "nunca te olvadaremos." Es posible que así fuera pero la tumba tenía años de descuido. Cuidado con lo que escribes en piedra.
I can't rejoice about anyone being dead as glad as I am that Chavez is gone. It is eerily quiet in Caracas. When the announcement was first made I heard a couple of kids shouting the news, that's how I found out. But the kids were quickly silenced.
Back in 2004 I said that Chavez would die of natural causes while still in office. I got that right.
Now the fun begins, can Chavismo survive without the charismatic leader? It's not a question of politics but one of immense wealth from oil, from drugs, from kickbacks.
I was out and about the streets of Caracas for good part of the day yesterday. If I hadn't read the news I would never have known that thing were that bad around here. There is a huge disconnect between the political activists and the ordinary people who just want to go about living their lives.
That is not to say things are "normal" [whatever normal might mean]. Recently there was a shortage of some of the drugs I use on regular basis, metformin, the one controlling my type two diabetes, being a critical one. That does not mean I had run out of the drug. We know that with price controls shortages are the norm, not the exception, so we stockpile critical items: drugs, powdered milk, olive oil, rice, toilette paper. Some people stockpile frozen meat in industrial size freezers...
I could not get the slow release version, instead I was pleasantly surprise that the pharmacy bill came to only BsF 80.00 (US$3.65 at the parallel rate) for 50 days worth of metformin, 60 days worth of another drug and a jar of Tums (75 tablets). A closer look at the bill revealed:
Metformin (50 days): BsF.8.74 (US$0.40) -- about the price of 4 bananas Allopurinol (60 days): BsF.13.52 (US$0.61) -- about the price of 3 heads of garlic Tums (75 tablets): BsF.58.18 (US$2.65) -- probably more in line with US prices
I said above "pleasantly surprised" because the controlled release version of Metformin, which is not price regulated, would have cost closer to BsF. 200.00 (US$9.00), 23 times the price of the regulated drug.
This tinkering with prices kills any economy which is why socialist countries tend to suffer shortages. With us this is not a new Chavista phenomenon, it has been the norm ever since we had price controls.
Powdered milk, usually absent from grocery stores, is a case in point. Our cows don't seem to make enough milk and we import the powdered milk, not that you would know it from the tins which never mention any country other than Venezuela. The other day I saw a pile of 100 pound sacks of powdered milk from New Zealand in a delivery truck. I asked where they were delivering the milk. They replied that it was charcoal. It seems the sacks get recycled, good show! But the powdered milk is imported, nonetheless.
BTW, Miguel, the author of the following article, is safely in Miami. He used to work for the government a long time ago as head of one of our better research labs. He quit because politics was getting in the way but that was a long time before Chavez. I mention it only to show that the Chavez show is not all that different from our previous "demodesgracia" (demo disgrace), our pseudo democracy. It's mostly that there is a new set on "ins" and the old "ins" who are now "outs" are mad as hell.
Students Chain Themselves In Front Of Cuban Embassy In Caracas And Other Stories by moctavio
Today there were protests by Venezuelan students in front of the Cuban Embassy in Caracas. The National Guard decided to repress and seven students were jailed (later freed). Some students went to where the others were being held, while twenty six of them chained themselves in front of the Cuban Embassy, where there is a sot of Mexican stand off at this time.
Meanwhile, the Government no longer knows how to explain the devaluation. Maduro says that it is a speculative attack by the private sector, in a country with draconian foreign exchange controls. Jaua says that the "people" were not benefiting from the "cheap" dollars. Giordani says that they have screwed up all along, that SITME was "genetically perverted", that Venezuelans have a "dollarized nymphomania" and he knows all about the tricks to get CADIVI dollars illegal but has done nothing about it. Merentes gives Globovision a rambling non-sensical interview. (As a former scientist, I loved (cringed?) at his statement that scientists never rule out anything. Really Nelson?)
Meanwhile, Jaua cancels his visit to Peru to go to Cuba in the middle of rumors that Chavez is back in intensive care, while Marquina (@Marquina04) says "La razón de la falla respiratoria es sin duda las metástasis a nivel pulmonar e invasión del drenaje linfático" (The reason for the respiratory failure is without any doubt the metastasis at the lung level and invasion of the lymphatic fluid"
A normal day elsewhere in Venezuela. Historian Napoleon Pisani, a fellow blogger, was killed in a robbery at a museum, while a former national water polo champion was killed in a robbery.
Something seems to be reaching boiling point in Caracas.
I have yet to see these Bloomberg news confirmed in the local press.
Last June the parallel exchange rate was around 9 per dollar. Today it is 20 per dollar. See: El Liberal Venezolano
Venezuela Devalues Bolivar by 32% Amid Shortage of Dollars
By Charlie Devereux & Jose Orozco - Feb 8, 2013 5:04 PM GMT-0430
Venezuela devalued its currency for the fifth time in nine years as ailing President Hugo Chavez seeks to narrow a widening fiscal gap and reduce a shortage of dollars in the economy.
The government will weaken the exchange rate by 32 percent to 6.3 bolivars per dollar, Finance Minister Jorge Giordani told reporters today in Caracas. Companies with operations in Venezuela, including Colgate-Palmolive Co., Avon Products Inc. and MercadoLibre Inc., fell on the announcement.
A spending spree that almost tripled the fiscal deficit last year helped Chavez, 58, win a third six-term term. The devaluation can help narrow the budget deficit by increasing the amount of bolivars the government receives from oil exports. Chavez ordered the move from Cuba, where he is recovering from a fourth cancer surgery, Giordani said.
“Any tackling of the massive economic distortions, even if far more is required, is positively viewed by markets,” Kathryn Rooney Vera, a strategist at Bulltick Capital Markets, said in an interview from Miami. “We expected more and more is indeed needed to correct fiscal imbalances and adjust economic distortions, but this is something and there may be more to come.”
The yield on Venezuela’s dollar bonds maturing in 2027 fell 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage points, to 8.70 percent at 4:43 p.m. local time. Venezuelan bonds have returned 39 percent over the past year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBIG index.
While a weaker currency may fuel annual inflation of 22 percent, it may ease shortages of goods ranging from toilet paper to cars.
In the black market, the bolivar is trading at 18.4 per dollar, according to Lechuga Verde, a website that tracks the rate. Venezuelans use the unregulated credit market because the central bank doesn’t supply enough dollars at the official rates to meet demand.
Venezuela’s fiscal gap widened to 11 percent of gross domestic product last year from 4 percent in 2011, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The government will keep the currency at 4.3 per dollar for certain imports that were ordered before Jan. 15, he said. The new exchange rate will begin operating Feb. 13, central bank President Nelson Merentes said.
The central bank-administered currency market known as Sitme that traded at 5.3 bolivars per dollar will be eliminated, Merentes said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Charlie Devereux in Caracas at email@example.com; Jose Orozco in Caracas at firstname.lastname@example.org
Nota: el dolar paralelo se duplicó en los últimos thres meses. El mercado siempre habla mas verdades que cualquier gobierno.
China está renuente a firmar nuevo financiamiento El Nacional, 31 de enero de 2013
Las necesidades de financiamiento del Gobierno de Venezuela para 2013 alcanzan los 65 millardos de dólares El fondo propuesto por el Gobierno de Venezuela implicaba un desembolso por 15 millardos de dólares
BLANCA VERA AZAF 31 DE ENERO 2013 - 12:01 AM
El Gobierno de China está negado a firmar un nuevo acuerdo de financiamiento por petróleo con Venezuela. Argumenta que no se ha cumplido con lo estipulado en los contratos del Fondo Gran Volumen I y II y con el Fondo Pesado o Binacional. Una fuente confirmó que la solicitud por parte del Banco de Desarrollo Económico y Social (Bandes) para la firma de un nuevo acuerdo por 15 millardos de dólares fue rechazada por China.
Se pudo conocer que se han hecho observaciones sobre cómo el Gobierno de Venezuela ha manejado los recursos aprobados para proyectos de infraestructura y el retraso que se ha registrado en las obras que debían iniciarse y finalizarse en fechas establecidas.
De acuerdo con la fuente, otros de los reclamos que ha hecho el Gobierno de China tiene que ver con inconvenientes técnicos relacionados con el tipo de petróleo y derivados que Venezuela está enviando como pago a los préstamos.
La ministra para el Comercio, Edmée Betancourt, es quien ha estado al frente de los acuerdos con China e hizo la solicitud para firmar un nuevo fondo distinto a los dos ya existentes por 15 millardos de dólares en noviembre del año pasado.
Asimismo, ministro de Petróleo y Minería, Rafael Ramírez, estuvo haciendo gestiones en diciembre pasado durante la última reunión bilateral llevada a cabo en Beijing para que se realizaran los últimos desembolsos del acuerdo firmado por Petróleos de Venezuela con el Banco de Desarrollo Chino por un poco más de 500 millones de dólares. Sin embargo, tampoco tuvo éxito.
Por cubrir. Las necesidades de financiamiento del Gobierno de Venezuela para 2013 alcanzan los 65 millardos de dólares, según cifras de Bank of America. En caso de que no se produzca la devaluación del bolívar el déficit fiscal podría llegar al cierre del año a 20 puntos del producto interno bruto (cantidad de bienes y servicios producidos por una nación a lo largo de 12 meses), de acuerdo con cálculos de Barclays Capital.
El financiamiento chino se hace cada vez más importante para el Gobierno tomando en cuenta que está negado a pedir ayuda al Fondo Monetario Internacional o al Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, afirmó una fuente.
Aunque se han tomado medidas puntuales como la reforma de la Ley de Contribución Especial sobre Precios Extraordinarios y Exorbitantes –conocida como ley de ganancia súbita- la cual aumentará en 10 millones de dólares diarios la cantidad de dólares que pueda liquidar Cadivi, según datos de Ecoanalitica, aún quedan necesidades de financiamiento por cubrir.
Envíos de crudo. En noviembre de 2012, el ministro de Petróleo y Minería, Rafael Ramírez, aseguró que el Fondo Conjunto Chino Venezolano sumaba 41,5 millardos de dólares en ventas.
Explicó que los envíos de crudo y sus derivados a China totalizan actualmente 640.000 barriles. De este total 273.000 barriles son destinados al pago de los préstamos del Fondo Chino, cuyo monto asciende a 36 millardos de dólares. Según Ramírez, Venezuela ha cancelado 17,9 millardos de dólares. Esto significa –según el ministro- que la nación tiene en estos fondos excedentes por 23,6 millardos de dólares.
Me llegó por email y está escrito en un "argot" venezolano que espero que compendan. Olvídense de "reformas económicas." Ya no queda casi nada por robar. La plaga de langosta bolibana se lo llevó todo. Pero como dije antes, el pueblo está apático, solo se dedica a sobrevivir. Los tontos útiles siguen chupando de la teta que se seca.
NO SON CUENTOS CHINOS, SE AVECINA EL DEFAULT
Levanto la mano porque fuimos uno de los que advertimos, desde finales del 2do. Semestre 2012, que para Mayo/Junio en Venezuela podríamos seriamente entrar en Capitulo de Default (EL PAÍS ESTARÍA FUNDIDO, y no tendría con qué pagar sus deudas)…. FÍJATE QUE HOY El Nacional nos trae como titular: “China rechazó otro acuerdo de financiamiento por petróleo"….LA COSA VA POR AQUÍ, evadiendo los estrictos controles de salud administrativa exigidos por el FMI y al BID, los Boligarcas del Régimen abrieron el Boquete en China para conseguir prestamos e hipotecar el Futuro del país sin tastas exigencias….AHORA LOS CHINOS se negaron a seguir prestando “liales” por petróleo a futuro, porque Venezuela no cumplió (Mal manejo de recurso y no cumplimiento de plazos) con lo estipulado en los contratos del Fondo Gran Volumen I y II y con el Fondo Pesado o Binacional de ese Negro futuro...CON EL QLO EN 2 MANOS “Voz de Trueno” Ramírez quería que los Chinos le dieran un sencillito de $15.000 millones, pero los chinos le dijeron NO...ENTONCES Ramírez salió esmollejao a vender el oro del BCV…EN SU DESESPERO, “Voz de Trueno” Ramírez le enseño "la firma" de Toy Curao a los Chinos: "Miren, vean, aquí está la firma"... Y Los Chinos dijeron no es la "firma", es la forma como ustedes se mamaron los reales!….. EPALE VOZ DE TRUENO, escúchame: No soy yo, quien dice que PDVSA no cumplió con entregas, por no producir crudo, lo dicen los Chinos, que ponen los "Liales"….. LAS COSAS BIEN CLARAS 1) Los chinos dicen (y no es la 1era Vez) que las obras que debió construir PDVSA, no se hicieron... la corrupción en casas se lo llevó todo; 2) Lo otro que dicen los chinos es que la Calidad del poco petróleo que envían es pésima...3) Lo más grave del asunto, ni siquiera es que los Chinos no quieren otro acuerdo, sino que el resto de la última parte del acuerdo ($500 millones) no quisieron entregarlo...Y EL QUESO Q HABIA EN LA MESA.. Estos Barbarazos no dejaron para nadie... FÍJATE QUE la última "Raspá de Olla" fue en ocasión de la Prolongada Ausencia de Toy Curao, que no es falta según TSJ…..CIELO TENEBROSO, según Bank of América: para finales de 2013, se espera que el déficit fiscal del régimen “Rojo-Rojito”podría ser de uno 20 puntos del PIB...si es que llega a fin de año, digo yo….BARBAS EN REMOJO, con razón hay tanto militar y funcionarios sacando a sus muchachos de clases en este mes de enero y mandándolos pa' fuera, bien lejos... se pone feo el asunto…ES APRECIABLE QUE sin dólares no hay vehículos ni repuestos, no hay computadoras ni celulares, no hay equipos médicos en hospitales, no hay cupo CADIVI y Ojo! "sin tetas no hay paraíso"…..LA EXPERIENCIA DE OTRO Barbaro es el camino que llevamos en la Venezuela de Toy Curao. FÍJATE: Al fisco de Zimbabwe (África), después del saqueo y larga tiranía de Mugabe, sólo le quedan, lee Bien: $217…!!.. Sí, así como lees, solo medio cupo CADIVI de internet. …PREGUNTARAS ¿Cuál fue la fórmula de Mugabe, para dejar a Zimbabwe en el esterero? Sencillo: Expropiaciones, expoliación, corrupción, tiranía prolongada y full odio…TE PREGUNTO, después de describir que No son cuentos chinos lo del desmadre de la Robolucion, ¿A caso, crees que hay algo parecido aquí en Venezuela?.. ..VAE VICTIS!!
February 4 is the anniversary of the failed Chavista coup that left over 100 people dead. Yesterday, total apathy!
I was out running errands yesterday, February 4. Nobody gives a damn. Not about the coup, not about the revolution, not about Chavez, not about the opposition. Everyone is busy surviving. The revolutionary speeches blare from radios, I comment out loud that these were assassins. People smile and go about their business. The grocery store owner has time enough to say: “They will do anything to hang on to power” and turns to take care of the next customer.
Nothing To Celebrate In Venezuela, Twenty One and Fourteen Years Later
Ambassador Charles Shapiro hit the bulls-eye when he said (in reply to Gustavo Coronel) that it must be the Venezuelans who solve their political issues. I agree entirely but people are not really interested in ideology, the interest is in making a living. As we say "redondear la arepa." The way to weaken the government is by dropping the price of oil but this hurts the people as much as it hurts the regime.
The Council of the Americas hosted a roundtable discussion on Venezuela's choices as it faces a potential political transition.
Experts on the country discussed the uncertainty created by the potential transition, the prospects for change, the implications for Venezuela’s economy and how the U.S. and other countries will respond.
Participants included: •Charles Shapiro, President, Institute of the Americas, former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela •Russell Dallen, President and Editor-in-Chief, Latin American Herald Tribune, Caracas •Christopher Sabatini, Editor-in-Chief, Americas Quarterly and Senior Director of Policy, Americas Society/Council of the Americas •Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, Americas Society/Council of the Americas
CARACAS -- De cuclillas en una entrada a las afueras del palacio presidencial rosado y rojo, Alexis León dijo que tenía fe en que su inquilino, el enfermo presidente Hugo Chávez, regrese pronto a casa.
Funcionarios gubernamentales insisten en que Chávez está alerta y habla con su familia mientras se recupera de una operación de cáncer en Cuba. Pero en Caracas —donde no se le ha visto ni escuchado en más de un mes— hay poco que hacer aparte de preocuparse y esperar.
“Si fuera un miembro de mi familia, también impediría que hiciera apariciones públicas hasta que estuviera recuperado por completo —cualquier cosa por su salud”, dijo León, de 51 años, un profesor de teatro. “El regresará; sólo tenemos que darle tiempo”.
Pero muchos se preocupan de cuánto tiempo puede funcionar la cuarta mayor economía de América Latina con su líder ausente e incomunicado.
El lunes, la coalición de partidos opositores, conocida por sus siglas MUD, dio a conocer cartas enviadas a la Organización de Estados Americanos (OEA) y al grupo comercial Mercosur pidiéndoles que evalúen lo que ellos consideran una violación constitucional que podría “afectar la estabilidad de la región”. La coalición también pidió presentar su caso ante el consejo permanente de la OEA.
A pesar de la frágil salud de Chávez, la Corte Suprema insiste en que él está aún a cargo. Eso significa que el vicepresidente Nicolás Maduro no tiene el poder de designar embajadores o miembros del gabinete, ni de firmar tratados internacionales, dijeron expertos legales.
“¿Por cuánto tiempo tenemos que esperar por el presidente?” preguntó Miriam Berdugo de Montilla, una legisladora de oposición. “¿Quién puede decirnos dónde está el presidente? ¿En qué condición está? ¿Dónde lo tienen? Nadie sabe realmente”.
El gobierno dice que Chávez se encuentra en La Habana recibiendo tratamiento de un equipo de expertos para una forma de cáncer no dada a conocer contra la que combate al menos desde junio del 2011. El domingo, funcionarios dijeron que estaba alerta y reaccionado “favorablemente” al tratamiento de una infección respiratoria grave que ha afectado su recuperación.
Pero hay razones para la preocupación. La semana pasada, Chávez supuestamente envió una carta al congreso solicitando permiso para no estar en su toma de poder del 10 de enero. Pero la carta estaba firmada por Maduro, no por el presidente. Y cuando decenas de miles de seguidores de Chávez se reunieron en el centro de Caracas para marcar su nuevo término de seis años, no hubo mensajes grabados desde La Habana, como muchos esperaban.
“Imaginen al presidente Barack Obama sin una foto o una prueba de vida durante 35 días”, dijo el lunes Russ Dallen, un inversionista y periodista con sede en Caracas, a un panel en la ciudad de Washington. “Es un escenario en verdad sorprendente”.
Para complicar las cosas, la Corte Suprema ha desestimado las solicitudes de enviar un equipo médico a La Habana, y ningún médico u observador independiente ha comentado sobre su situación. Cuando un diplomático brasileño lo visitó este mes anteriormente, calificó de “grave” el estado del presidente, pero no dio más detalles. Los presidentes Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, de Argentina; y Evo Morales, de Bolivia, han sido también visitantes recientes, pero se han mantenido callados sobre su condición.
Resulta sospechoso el hecho de que sólo las personas que hablan sobre la salud del presidente tienen intereses creados en ello, dijo Nelson Madrid, un maestro de música de 59 años de edad que ha perdido confianza en los informes del gobierno.
“Necesitamos oír de nuestro presidente”, manifestó Madrid. “Realmente no sé qué va a pasar, tenemos que esperar que no sea algo malo”.
Si Chávez muriera o renunciara, esto provocaría nuevas elecciones dentro de 30 días. Antes de viajar a Cuba, el presidente pidió a la nación que respaldara al vicepresidente Maduro si él se viera afectado por la enfermedad. Esto enfrentaría a Maduro —ministro de Relaciones Exteriores por un largo tiempo— contra Henrique Capriles, gobernador de Miranda, quien perdió en octubre contra Chávez.
Pero ninguno de los seguidores del presidente ha reconocido abiertamente un futuro después de Chávez. Y la decisión de la Corte Suprema presume no sólo que él está a cargo, sino que regresará para jurar.
La oposición alega que la ausencia de Chávez del día de su juramento requiere que se declare temporalmente ausente al mandatario y que el presidente de la Asamblea Nacional, Diosdado Cabello, otro leal a Chávez, asuma el cargo hasta que regrese el presidente.
“La parte más problemática es que [la Corte Suprema] ha declarado, increíblemente, que el presidente Chávez no está ausente y está en control total de sus funciones, incluso cuando ha estado fuera del país por más de un mes y ni siquiera está en condición de firmar un comunicado oficial”, escribió MUD al Mercosur, el influyente grupo comercial al que se unió Venezuela en julio.
Por su parte, la administración ha calificado la decisión de la Corte Suprema como una victoria para la democracia en una nación que apoyó ampliamente a Chávez en la contienda presidencial del 7 de octubre.
La decisión ha dejado con poco espacio para las maniobras legales a la oposición, que ha convocado a una marcha pacífica para el 23 de enero en defensa de la constitución.
El gobierno parece preparado para un enfrentamiento. Poco después de que se anunciara la protesta, Maduro hizo un llamado a las fuerzas de seguridad a que estuvieran vigilantes y enfrentaran los intentos de la oposición de instigar a la violencia.
“Ellos tratan de manchar nuestras políticas y las victorias que esta nación conquista todos los días”, dijo Maduro de la protesta.
Por el momento, el debate constitucional ha tenido pocas repercusiones internacionales. Más de 20 delegaciones internacionales se encontraban la semana pasada en Venezuela para marcar el nuevo término de seis años de Chávez. Y la Organización de Estados Americanos y el Departamento de Estado de EEUU, entre otros, han dicho que respetan el fallo de la Corte Suprema.
Pero mientras más tiempo esté ausente el presidente, menos sostenible será la situación, dijo Gregorio Gaterol, un legislador de oposición.
“Este fallo de la Corte Suprema es una camisa de fuerza para la oposición”, agregó. “Pero con el tiempo, ella también se va a ver amarrada con esta decisión”.
CARACAS -- Huddled in a doorway outside the pink and red presidential palace, Alexis León said he has faith that its tenant, ailing President Hugo Chávez, will be home soon.
Government officials insist that Chávez is alert and speaking to his family as he recovers from cancer surgery in Cuba. But in Caracas — where he hasn’t been seen or heard from in more than a month — there’s little to do but worry and wait.
“If he was my family member, I would also keep him from making any public appearances until he was completely recovered — anything for his health,” said León, 51, a theater professor. “He’ll be back; we just have to give him time.”
But many wonder how long Latin America’s fourth-largest economy can function with its leader in absentia and incommunicado.
On Monday, the coalition of opposition parties, known by its Spanish acronym MUD, released letters sent to the Organization of American States and the Mercosur trade group asking them to weigh in on what they see as a violation of the constitution that could “affect the stability of the region.” The coalition also asked to make its case before the permanent council of the OAS.
Despite Chávez’s frail health, the Supreme Court insists he is still in charge. That means that Vice President Nicolás Maduro does not have the power to appoint ambassadors or cabinet members or sign international treaties, legal experts said.
“How long do we have to wait for the president?” asked Miriam Berdugo de Montilla, an opposition lawmaker. “Who can tell us where the president is? What condition is he in? Where are they keeping him? Nobody really knows.”
The government says Chávez is in Havana being treated by an international team of experts for an undisclosed form of cancer that he’s been battling since at least June 2011. On Sunday, officials said he was alert and reacting “favorably” to treatment for a severe respiratory infection that has plagued his recovery.
But there are reasons for concern. Last week, Chávez purportedly sent a letter to congress asking for permission to miss his Jan. 10 inauguration. But the letter was signed by Maduro, not the president. And when tens of thousands of Chávez followers crammed downtown Caracas to mark his new six-year term, there were no recorded messages from Havana, as many were hoping.
“Imagine President Barack Obama not being touch, not even a picture or proof of life for 35 days,” Russ Dallen, a Caracas-based investor and journalist told a panel in Washington, D.C. on Monday. “It’s an amazing, amazing scenario.”
To complicate matters, the Supreme Court has turned down requests to send a medical team to Havana, and no doctors or independent observers have commented on his status. When a Brazilian diplomat visited earlier this month he called the president’s condition “grave,” but provided no details. Argentina’s Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Bolivia’s Evo Morales have also been recent visitors, but have remained mum about his condition.
The fact that the only people talking about the president’s health have a vested interest is suspicious, said Nelson Madrid, a 59-year-old music teacher who has lost confidence in the government reports.
“We need to hear from our president,” he said. “I really don’t know what’s going to happen we just have to hope it’s not bad.”
If Chávez were to die or step down, it should trigger new elections within 30 days. Before he traveled to Cuba, the president asked the nation to rally behind Vice President Maduro if he were sidelined by the illness. That would likely pit Maduro — a long time foreign minister — against Miranda Gov. Henrique Capriles, who lost to Chávez in October.
But none of the president’s followers have openly acknowledged life after Chávez. And the Supreme Court ruling presumes not only that he’s in charge but will return to be sworn in.
The opposition argues that Chávez’s absence on inauguration day required the president to be declared temporarily absent and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, also another Chávez loyalist, to take charge until the president returns.
“The most troublesome part is that the [Supreme Court] has, astonishingly, declared President Chávez is not absent and is in full control of his functions even though he’s been out of the country for more than a month and not even in condition to sign an official communiqué,” the MUD wrote to Mercosur, the influential trade group, which Venezuela joined in July.
For its part, the administration has called the Supreme Court decision a victory for democracy in a nation that overwhelmingly supported Chávez in the Oct. 7 presidential race.
The ruling has left the opposition with little room for legal maneuvering, but they have called for a peaceful march on Jan. 23 in defense of the constitution.
The government seems prepared for a showdown. Shortly after the protest was announced, Maduro called on security forces to be vigilant and shutdown opposition attempts to instigate violence.
“They’re trying to stain our politics and the victories this nation is conquering every day,” Maduro said of the protest.
For the moment, the constitutional debate has caused few international ripples. More than 20 international delegations were in Venezuela last week to mark Chávez’s new six-year term. And the Organization of American States and the U.S. State Department, among others, have said they respect the high court’s ruling.
But the longer the president is absent, the less tenable the situation will be, said Gregorio Gaterol, an opposition lawmaker.
“This Supreme Court sentence is a straightjacket for the opposition,” he said. “But over time, they’re going to get tied up in this decision also.”
Good morning from Washington, D.C. I have attached our latest BBO Report on Venezuela in which we take a look at the Venezuela Supreme Court's decision last week to interpret the Constitution to allow President Hugo Chavez to take the oath of office at a "later time and place" by being sworn in before the Supreme Court using the innovative new legal theory they introduced of "continuity."
I was fascinated to see that the Venezuelan Supreme Court reached all the way back to the one example in US history where a US Vice President was sworn in on foreign soil -- late and in Cuba, at that!
In 1852, Franklin Pierce had won the presidency and was sworn in on March 4, 1853, but his Vice President, Alabama Senator William R. King had developed tuberculosis (TB) and was in Cuba for the winter to get the warm air on his lungs to ease his symptoms. TB was usually a death sentence in those days and he missed the presidential inauguration and in sympathy, his friends in Congress passed a law allowing him to be sworn in as Vice President from Cuba so that he might die with that title, and on March 24, 1853, 20 days late and on foreign soil, he took the oath of office. Most ominously for Chavez, King returned to the US and died a few weeks later on April 18,1953. Interestingly -- and confirming FDR Vice President John Nance Garner's comment that "the vice presidency is not worth a pitcher of warm spit" -- Pierce never filled the Vice President position for the rest of his term.
Of course, inaugurations took place later in the calendar in the 1800s, but Washington is all spiffed up and getting ready for Barack Obama's second inauguration on January 20. In the spirit, I finally got to see Steven Spielberg's/Daniel Day Lewis's "Lincoln" at the movies. Brilliant movie and you can see why it has 12 Academy Award nominations -- and why it is the first time Hollywood has voted for a Republican President in a long time!
I am in D.C. because I, along with former US Ambassador to Venezuela Charles Shapiro, former Senior Advisor to the White House Special Envoy for the Americas Eric Farnsworth, and Chris Sabatini, Editor-in-Chief of the Americas Quarterly, will be speaking about Venezuela and our predictions and prognosis for what will happen there at the Carnegie Endowment today at 11 here in Washington, D.C. You can watch the session on C-Span on your TV or online here: http://www.as-coa.org/events/venezuelas-uncertain-future
As always, please don't hesitate to let me know if we can be of any assistance.
Chavismo Takes The Path Of Maximum Illegallity In Venezuela
January 8, 2013
Chavismo and the Venezuelan National Assembly have today decided to follow the path of maximum illegality when they announced that Hugo Chávez will not show up on Thursday and will be sworn in a some time in the future by the Venezuela Supreme Court. At the same time, the National Assembly approved that President Chávez can take an unlimited leave of absence, something that it is unconstitutional and illegal.
The whole show is a bizarre and unnecessary twist to the problem of what to do with Chávez’ inability to be sworn in due to his illness, as this is simply a break with the laws and the Constitution that is likely to have repercussions beyond what Chavismo apparently believes.
The whole sequence of events is bizarre to say the least:
-It all starts by a letter by Vice-President Maduro, the person with the largest conflict of interest in all this, as his tenure as Vice-President clearly ends on Jan. 10th. with Chávez’ six year term. Moreover, there is not even the pretense of having Chávez sign the letter. If Chávez is doing better and will be able to be sworn in sometime soon, why didn’t he even sign the letter? Maduro clearly has no legal right to make this request for the Venezuelan President.
-As if this was not enough the National Assembly approves a spurious resolution, giving Chávez an unlimited leave and without even following what the law requires for a President, which is a medical committee giving an opinion and the Assembly approving the recommendation of such a committee. Only the Supreme Court could approve that you can extend to Art. 233 of the Constitution a President-elect, but under no circumstance could the Court or the Assembly grant Chávez an unlimited leave.
-In the case of a temporal absence, the Vice-President would become President, but since Chávez has not been sworn in, it is absolutely unconstitutional for current Vice-President Nicolás Maduro to extend his Vice-Presidency into the next term. Since Chávez has not been sworn in yet, and it Maduro says he will not be for a while, then the only legal solution is for the President of the National Assembly to become President until the situation is resolved with the approval of the Venezuelan Supreme Court (Which may still happen before Jan. 10th.)
What is scary about this whole situation is that if it does extend into Jan. 10th. Chavismo (And not Chávez! We do not know his opinion!) will be taking the country on a path of piling up one illegality on top of the other. This could take years to unravel, as someone has to run the country, but all decisions after Jan. 10th. will lack any legality and could be challenged some day. This could have dire consequences for the stability of the country medium and long term. Moreover, once someone decides to bypass the Constitution, all sorts of demons are unleashed among all of those aspiring for power.
I wonder if those demons are what is already causing these bizarre situation.
The question remains why this path has been chosen. Either Chavismo does not want or does not trust Diosdado Cabello as President or Chavismo (and the Cubans) have decided to turn the country into a Dictatorship, the Constitution be damned. The question is in the former case is why would Diosdado follow Maduro on this?
And as one analyst asked me yesterday: Will these guys even hold elections if Chávez dies?
You have to start wondering…
For the last few days, I have believed that a Constitutional crisis would be avoided when push came to shove. Right now, I can only sit here and hope that the Supreme Court will say something tomorrow, before Venezuela is taken into an unknown path packed with instability.
After Jan. 10th. anyone that sides with Chavismo and this foolishness will be on the side of illegality and and a coup. Remarkably, not one person on the Chavismo side has yet raised a voice of concern.
They have less than two days to speak up or side with those breaking with Venezuela’s Constitution.