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201  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Students Chain Themselves In Front Of Cuban Embassy In Caracas And Other Stories on: February 15, 2013, 07:54:04 AM
I was out and about the streets of Caracas for  good part of the day yesterday. If I hadn't read the news I would never have known that thing were that bad around here. There is a huge disconnect between the political activists and the ordinary people who just want to go about living their lives.

That is not to say things are "normal" [whatever normal might mean]. Recently there was a shortage of some of the drugs I use on  regular basis, metformin, the one controlling my type two diabetes, being a critical one. That does not mean I had run out of the drug. We know that with price controls shortages are the norm, not the exception, so we stockpile critical items: drugs, powdered milk, olive oil, rice, toilette paper. Some people stockpile frozen meat in industrial size freezers...

I could not get the slow release version, instead I was pleasantly surprise that the pharmacy bill came to only BsF 80.00 (US$3.65 at the parallel rate) for 50 days worth of metformin, 60 days worth of another drug and a jar of Tums (75 tablets). A closer look at the bill revealed:

Metformin (50 days): BsF.8.74 (US$0.40) -- about the price of 4 bananas
Allopurinol (60 days): BsF.13.52 (US$0.61) -- about the price of 3 heads of garlic
Tums (75 tablets): BsF.58.18 (US$2.65) -- probably more in line with US prices

I said above "pleasantly surprised" because the controlled release version of Metformin, which is not price regulated, would have cost closer to BsF. 200.00 (US$9.00), 23 times the price of the regulated drug.

This tinkering with prices kills any economy which is why socialist countries tend to suffer shortages. With us this is not a new Chavista phenomenon, it has been the norm ever since we had price controls.

Powdered milk, usually absent from grocery stores, is a case in point. Our cows don't seem to make enough milk and we import the powdered milk, not that you would know it from the tins which never mention any country other than Venezuela. The other day I saw a pile of 100 pound sacks of powdered milk from New Zealand in a delivery truck. I asked where they were delivering the milk. They replied that it was charcoal. It seems the sacks get recycled, good show! But the powdered milk is imported, nonetheless.

BTW, Miguel, the author of the following article, is safely in Miami. He used to work for the government a long time ago as head of one of our better research labs. He quit because politics was getting in the way but that was a long time before Chavez. I mention it only to show that the Chavez show is not all that different from our previous "demodesgracia" (demo disgrace), our pseudo democracy. It's mostly that there is a new set on "ins" and the old "ins" who are now "outs" are mad as hell.

Students Chain Themselves In Front Of Cuban Embassy In Caracas And Other Stories
by moctavio

Today there were protests by Venezuelan students in front of the Cuban Embassy in Caracas. The National Guard decided to repress and seven students were jailed (later freed). Some students went to where the others were being held, while twenty six of them chained themselves in front of the Cuban Embassy, where there is a sot of Mexican stand off at this time.

Meanwhile, the Government no longer knows how to explain the devaluation. Maduro says that it is a speculative attack by the private sector, in a country with draconian foreign exchange controls. Jaua says that the "people" were not benefiting from the "cheap" dollars. Giordani says that they have screwed up all along, that SITME was "genetically perverted", that Venezuelans have a "dollarized nymphomania" and he knows all about the tricks to get CADIVI dollars illegal but has done nothing about it. Merentes gives Globovision a rambling non-sensical interview. (As a former scientist, I loved (cringed?) at his statement that scientists never rule out anything. Really Nelson?)

Meanwhile, Jaua cancels his visit to Peru to go to Cuba in the middle of rumors that Chavez is back in intensive care, while Marquina (@Marquina04)  says "La razón de la falla respiratoria es sin duda las metástasis a nivel pulmonar e invasión del drenaje linfático" (The reason for the respiratory failure is without any doubt the metastasis at the lung level and invasion of the lymphatic fluid"

A normal day elsewhere in Venezuela. Historian Napoleon Pisani, a fellow blogger,  was killed in a robbery at a museum, while a former national water polo champion was killed in a robbery.

Something seems to be reaching boiling point in Caracas.
202  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Venezuela on: February 14, 2013, 04:50:41 PM
The "alternative treatment" is likely to be embalming so he doesn't stink up the place too badly!
203  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Venezuela Devalues Bolivar by 32% Amid Shortage of Dollars on: February 08, 2013, 04:16:30 PM
I have yet to see these Bloomberg news confirmed in the local press.

Last June the parallel exchange rate was around 9 per dollar. Today it is 20 per dollar. See: El Liberal Venezolano

Venezuela Devalues Bolivar by 32% Amid Shortage of Dollars

By Charlie Devereux & Jose Orozco - Feb 8, 2013 5:04 PM GMT-0430

Venezuela devalued its currency for the fifth time in nine years as ailing President Hugo Chavez seeks to narrow a widening fiscal gap and reduce a shortage of dollars in the economy.

The government will weaken the exchange rate by 32 percent to 6.3 bolivars per dollar, Finance Minister Jorge Giordani told reporters today in Caracas. Companies with operations in Venezuela, including Colgate-Palmolive Co., Avon Products Inc. and MercadoLibre Inc., fell on the announcement.

A spending spree that almost tripled the fiscal deficit last year helped Chavez, 58, win a third six-term term. The devaluation can help narrow the budget deficit by increasing the amount of bolivars the government receives from oil exports. Chavez ordered the move from Cuba, where he is recovering from a fourth cancer surgery, Giordani said.

“Any tackling of the massive economic distortions, even if far more is required, is positively viewed by markets,” Kathryn Rooney Vera, a strategist at Bulltick Capital Markets, said in an interview from Miami. “We expected more and more is indeed needed to correct fiscal imbalances and adjust economic distortions, but this is something and there may be more to come.”

Yields Fall

The yield on Venezuela’s dollar bonds maturing in 2027 fell 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage points, to 8.70 percent at 4:43 p.m. local time. Venezuelan bonds have returned 39 percent over the past year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBIG index.

While a weaker currency may fuel annual inflation of 22 percent, it may ease shortages of goods ranging from toilet paper to cars.

In the black market, the bolivar is trading at 18.4 per dollar, according to Lechuga Verde, a website that tracks the rate. Venezuelans use the unregulated credit market because the central bank doesn’t supply enough dollars at the official rates to meet demand.

Venezuela’s fiscal gap widened to 11 percent of gross domestic product last year from 4 percent in 2011, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

The government will keep the currency at 4.3 per dollar for certain imports that were ordered before Jan. 15, he said. The new exchange rate will begin operating Feb. 13, central bank President Nelson Merentes said.

The central bank-administered currency market known as Sitme that traded at 5.3 bolivars per dollar will be eliminated, Merentes said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Charlie Devereux in Caracas at; Jose Orozco in Caracas at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andre Soliani at
204  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Articulating our cause/strategy against Islamic Fascism on: February 08, 2013, 04:01:11 PM
The Europeans are masters of appeasement. Remember Munich?
205  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / China está renuente a firmar nuevo financiamiento on: February 06, 2013, 08:00:27 AM
Nota: el dolar paralelo se duplicó en los últimos thres meses. El mercado siempre habla mas verdades que cualquier gobierno.

China está renuente a firmar nuevo financiamiento
El Nacional, 31 de enero de 2013

Las necesidades de financiamiento del Gobierno de Venezuela para 2013 alcanzan los 65 millardos de dólares
El fondo propuesto por el Gobierno de Venezuela implicaba un desembolso por 15 millardos de dólares

31 DE ENERO 2013 - 12:01 AM

El Gobierno de China está negado a firmar un nuevo acuerdo de financiamiento por petróleo con Venezuela. Argumenta que no se ha cumplido con lo estipulado en los contratos del Fondo Gran Volumen I y II y con el Fondo Pesado o Binacional. Una fuente confirmó que la solicitud por parte del Banco de Desarrollo Económico y Social (Bandes) para la firma de un nuevo acuerdo por 15 millardos de dólares fue rechazada por China.

Se pudo conocer que se han hecho observaciones sobre cómo el Gobierno de Venezuela ha manejado los recursos aprobados para proyectos de infraestructura y el retraso que se ha registrado en las obras que debían iniciarse y finalizarse en fechas establecidas.

De acuerdo con la fuente, otros de los reclamos que ha hecho el Gobierno de China tiene que ver con inconvenientes técnicos relacionados con el tipo de petróleo y derivados que Venezuela está enviando como pago a los préstamos.

La ministra para el Comercio, Edmée Betancourt, es quien ha estado al frente de los acuerdos con China e hizo la solicitud para firmar un nuevo fondo distinto a los dos ya existentes por 15 millardos de dólares en noviembre del año pasado.

Asimismo, ministro de Petróleo y Minería, Rafael Ramírez, estuvo haciendo gestiones en diciembre pasado durante la última reunión bilateral llevada a cabo en Beijing para que se realizaran los últimos desembolsos del acuerdo firmado por Petróleos de Venezuela con el Banco de Desarrollo Chino por un poco más de 500 millones de dólares. Sin embargo, tampoco tuvo éxito.

Por cubrir. Las necesidades de financiamiento del Gobierno de Venezuela para 2013 alcanzan los 65 millardos de dólares, según cifras de Bank of America. En caso de que no se produzca la devaluación del bolívar el déficit fiscal podría llegar al cierre del año a 20 puntos del producto interno bruto (cantidad de bienes y servicios producidos por una nación a lo largo de 12 meses), de acuerdo con cálculos de Barclays Capital.

El financiamiento chino se hace cada vez más importante para el Gobierno tomando en cuenta que está negado a pedir ayuda al Fondo Monetario Internacional o al Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, afirmó una fuente.

Aunque se han tomado medidas puntuales como la reforma de la Ley de Contribución Especial sobre Precios Extraordinarios y Exorbitantes –conocida como ley de ganancia súbita- la cual  aumentará en 10 millones de dólares diarios la cantidad de dólares que pueda liquidar Cadivi, según datos de Ecoanalitica, aún quedan necesidades de financiamiento por cubrir.

Envíos de crudo. En noviembre de 2012, el ministro de Petróleo y Minería, Rafael Ramírez, aseguró que el Fondo Conjunto Chino Venezolano sumaba 41,5 millardos de dólares en ventas.

Explicó que los envíos de crudo y sus derivados a China totalizan actualmente 640.000 barriles. De este total 273.000 barriles son destinados al pago de los préstamos del Fondo Chino, cuyo monto asciende a 36 millardos de dólares. Según Ramírez,  Venezuela ha cancelado 17,9 millardos de dólares. Esto significa –según el ministro- que la nación tiene en estos fondos excedentes por 23,6 millardos de dólares.

206  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / NO SON CUENTOS CHINOS, SE AVECINA EL DEFAULT on: February 06, 2013, 07:52:45 AM
Me llegó por email y está escrito en un "argot" venezolano que espero que compendan. Olvídense de "reformas económicas." Ya no queda casi nada por robar. La plaga de langosta bolibana se lo llevó todo. Pero como dije antes, el pueblo está apático, solo se dedica a sobrevivir. Los tontos útiles siguen chupando de la teta que se seca.


Levanto la mano porque fuimos uno de los que advertimos, desde finales del 2do. Semestre 2012, que para Mayo/Junio en Venezuela podríamos seriamente entrar en Capitulo de Default (EL PAÍS ESTARÍA FUNDIDO, y no tendría con qué pagar sus deudas)…. FÍJATE QUE HOY El Nacional nos trae como titular: “China rechazó otro acuerdo de financiamiento por petróleo"….LA COSA VA POR AQUÍ, evadiendo los estrictos controles de salud administrativa exigidos por el FMI y al BID, los Boligarcas del Régimen abrieron el Boquete en China para conseguir prestamos e hipotecar el Futuro del país sin tastas exigencias….AHORA LOS CHINOS se negaron a seguir prestando “liales” por petróleo a futuro, porque Venezuela no cumplió (Mal manejo de recurso y no cumplimiento de plazos) con lo estipulado en los contratos del Fondo Gran Volumen I y II y con el Fondo Pesado o Binacional de ese Negro futuro...CON EL QLO EN 2 MANOS “Voz de Trueno” Ramírez quería que los Chinos le dieran un sencillito de $15.000 millones, pero los chinos le dijeron NO...ENTONCES Ramírez salió esmollejao a vender el oro del BCV…EN SU DESESPERO, “Voz de Trueno” Ramírez le enseño "la firma" de Toy Curao a los Chinos: "Miren, vean, aquí está la firma"... Y Los Chinos dijeron no es la "firma", es la forma como ustedes se mamaron los reales!….. EPALE VOZ DE TRUENO, escúchame: No soy yo, quien dice que PDVSA no cumplió con entregas, por no producir crudo, lo dicen los Chinos, que ponen los "Liales"….. LAS COSAS BIEN CLARAS 1) Los chinos dicen (y no es la 1era Vez) que las obras que debió construir PDVSA, no se hicieron... la corrupción en casas se lo llevó todo; 2) Lo otro que dicen los chinos es que la Calidad del poco petróleo que envían es pésima...3) Lo más grave del asunto, ni siquiera es que los Chinos no quieren otro acuerdo, sino que el resto de la última parte del acuerdo ($500 millones) no quisieron entregarlo...Y EL QUESO Q HABIA EN LA MESA.. Estos Barbarazos no dejaron para nadie... FÍJATE QUE la última "Raspá de Olla" fue en ocasión de la Prolongada Ausencia de Toy Curao, que no es falta según TSJ…..CIELO TENEBROSO, según Bank of América: para finales de 2013, se espera que el déficit fiscal del régimen “Rojo-Rojito”podría ser de uno 20 puntos del es que llega a fin de año, digo yo….BARBAS EN REMOJO, con razón hay tanto militar y funcionarios sacando a sus muchachos de clases en este mes de enero y mandándolos pa' fuera, bien lejos... se pone feo el asunto…ES APRECIABLE QUE sin dólares no hay vehículos ni repuestos, no hay computadoras ni celulares, no hay equipos médicos en hospitales, no hay cupo CADIVI y Ojo! "sin tetas no hay paraíso"…..LA EXPERIENCIA DE OTRO Barbaro es el camino que llevamos en la Venezuela de Toy Curao. FÍJATE: Al fisco de Zimbabwe (África), después del saqueo y larga tiranía de Mugabe, sólo le quedan, lee Bien: $217…!!.. Sí, así como lees, solo medio cupo CADIVI de internet. …PREGUNTARAS ¿Cuál fue la fórmula de Mugabe, para dejar a Zimbabwe en el esterero? Sencillo: Expropiaciones, expoliación, corrupción, tiranía prolongada y full odio…TE PREGUNTO, después de describir que No son cuentos chinos lo del desmadre de la Robolucion, ¿A caso, crees que hay algo parecido aquí en Venezuela?.. ..VAE VICTIS!!

Escrito por @Pimentonverde 31Ener2013
207  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Total apathy on: February 05, 2013, 06:05:43 AM
February 4 is the anniversary of the failed Chavista coup that left over 100 people dead. Yesterday, total apathy!

I was out running errands yesterday, February 4. Nobody gives a damn. Not about the coup, not about the revolution, not about Chavez, not about the opposition. Everyone is busy surviving. The revolutionary speeches blare from radios, I comment out loud that these were assassins. People smile and go about their business. The grocery store owner has time enough to say: “They will do anything to hang on to power” and turns to take care of the next customer.

Total apathy.

Nothing To Celebrate In Venezuela, Twenty One and Fourteen Years Later

208  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Venezuela on: January 15, 2013, 01:44:10 PM
Ambassador Charles Shapiro hit the bulls-eye when he said (in reply to Gustavo Coronel) that it must be the Venezuelans who solve their political issues. I agree entirely but people are not really interested in ideology, the interest is in making a living. As we say "redondear la arepa." The way to weaken the government is by dropping the price of oil but this hurts the people as much as it hurts the regime.

All in all I would give the panel high marks.

Denny Schlesinger

209  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Council of the Americas roundtable on Venezuela's choices on: January 15, 2013, 11:56:56 AM
The Council of the Americas hosted a roundtable discussion on Venezuela's choices as it faces a potential political transition.

Experts on the country discussed the uncertainty created by the potential transition, the prospects for change, the implications for Venezuela’s economy and how the U.S. and other countries will respond.

Participants included:
 •Charles Shapiro, President, Institute of the Americas, former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela
 •Russell Dallen, President and Editor-in-Chief, Latin American Herald Tribune, Caracas
 •Christopher Sabatini, Editor-in-Chief, Americas Quarterly and Senior Director of Policy, Americas Society/Council of the Americas
 •Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, Americas Society/Council of the Americas
You can watch the High-Def C-Span feed, which they carried live, here:

Or the Council of the Americas Website stream here
(skip the first 16 minutes, just the backs of the heads of the audience):

210  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Los venezolanos se preguntan cuánto tiempo podrán pasar sin presidente on: January 15, 2013, 09:57:51 AM
Por mi que lo entierren en Cuba  grin

Los venezolanos se preguntan cuánto tiempo podrán pasar sin presidente


CARACAS -- De cuclillas en una entrada a las afueras del palacio presidencial rosado y rojo, Alexis León dijo que tenía fe en que su inquilino, el enfermo presidente Hugo Chávez, regrese pronto a casa.

Funcionarios gubernamentales insisten en que Chávez está alerta y habla con su familia mientras se recupera de una operación de cáncer en Cuba. Pero en Caracas —donde no se le ha visto ni escuchado en más de un mes— hay poco que hacer aparte de preocuparse y esperar.

“Si fuera un miembro de mi familia, también impediría que hiciera apariciones públicas hasta que estuviera recuperado por completo —cualquier cosa por su salud”, dijo León, de 51 años, un profesor de teatro. “El regresará; sólo tenemos que darle tiempo”.

Pero muchos se preocupan de cuánto tiempo puede funcionar la cuarta mayor economía de América Latina con su líder ausente e incomunicado.

El lunes, la coalición de partidos opositores, conocida por sus siglas MUD, dio a conocer cartas enviadas a la Organización de Estados Americanos (OEA) y al grupo comercial Mercosur pidiéndoles que evalúen lo que ellos consideran una violación constitucional que podría “afectar la estabilidad de la región”. La coalición también pidió presentar su caso ante el consejo permanente de la OEA.

A pesar de la frágil salud de Chávez, la Corte Suprema insiste en que él está aún a cargo. Eso significa que el vicepresidente Nicolás Maduro no tiene el poder de designar embajadores o miembros del gabinete, ni de firmar tratados internacionales, dijeron expertos legales.

“¿Por cuánto tiempo tenemos que esperar por el presidente?” preguntó Miriam Berdugo de Montilla, una legisladora de oposición. “¿Quién puede decirnos dónde está el presidente? ¿En qué condición está? ¿Dónde lo tienen? Nadie sabe realmente”.

El gobierno dice que Chávez se encuentra en La Habana recibiendo tratamiento de un equipo de expertos para una forma de cáncer no dada a conocer contra la que combate al menos desde junio del 2011. El domingo, funcionarios dijeron que estaba alerta y reaccionado “favorablemente” al tratamiento de una infección respiratoria grave que ha afectado su recuperación.

Pero hay razones para la preocupación. La semana pasada, Chávez supuestamente envió una carta al congreso solicitando permiso para no estar en su toma de poder del 10 de enero. Pero la carta estaba firmada por Maduro, no por el presidente. Y cuando decenas de miles de seguidores de Chávez se reunieron en el centro de Caracas para marcar su nuevo término de seis años, no hubo mensajes grabados desde La Habana, como muchos esperaban.

“Imaginen al presidente Barack Obama sin una foto o una prueba de vida durante 35 días”, dijo el lunes Russ Dallen, un inversionista y periodista con sede en Caracas, a un panel en la ciudad de Washington. “Es un escenario en verdad sorprendente”.

Para complicar las cosas, la Corte Suprema ha desestimado las solicitudes de enviar un equipo médico a La Habana, y ningún médico u observador independiente ha comentado sobre su situación. Cuando un diplomático brasileño lo visitó este mes anteriormente, calificó de “grave” el estado del presidente, pero no dio más detalles. Los presidentes Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, de Argentina; y Evo Morales, de Bolivia, han sido también visitantes recientes, pero se han mantenido callados sobre su condición.

Resulta sospechoso el hecho de que sólo las personas que hablan sobre la salud del presidente tienen intereses creados en ello, dijo Nelson Madrid, un maestro de música de 59 años de edad que ha perdido confianza en los informes del gobierno.

“Necesitamos oír de nuestro presidente”, manifestó Madrid. “Realmente no sé qué va a pasar, tenemos que esperar que no sea algo malo”.

Si Chávez muriera o renunciara, esto provocaría nuevas elecciones dentro de 30 días. Antes de viajar a Cuba, el presidente pidió a la nación que respaldara al vicepresidente Maduro si él se viera afectado por la enfermedad. Esto enfrentaría a Maduro —ministro de Relaciones Exteriores por un largo tiempo— contra Henrique Capriles, gobernador de Miranda, quien perdió en octubre contra Chávez.

Pero ninguno de los seguidores del presidente ha reconocido abiertamente un futuro después de Chávez. Y la decisión de la Corte Suprema presume no sólo que él está a cargo, sino que regresará para jurar.

La oposición alega que la ausencia de Chávez del día de su juramento requiere que se declare temporalmente ausente al mandatario y que el presidente de la Asamblea Nacional, Diosdado Cabello, otro leal a Chávez, asuma el cargo hasta que regrese el presidente.

“La parte más problemática es que [la Corte Suprema] ha declarado, increíblemente, que el presidente Chávez no está ausente y está en control total de sus funciones, incluso cuando ha estado fuera del país por más de un mes y ni siquiera está en condición de firmar un comunicado oficial”, escribió MUD al Mercosur, el influyente grupo comercial al que se unió Venezuela en julio.

Por su parte, la administración ha calificado la decisión de la Corte Suprema como una victoria para la democracia en una nación que apoyó ampliamente a Chávez en la contienda presidencial del 7 de octubre.

La decisión ha dejado con poco espacio para las maniobras legales a la oposición, que ha convocado a una marcha pacífica para el 23 de enero en defensa de la constitución.

El gobierno parece preparado para un enfrentamiento. Poco después de que se anunciara la protesta, Maduro hizo un llamado a las fuerzas de seguridad a que estuvieran vigilantes y enfrentaran los intentos de la oposición de instigar a la violencia.

“Ellos tratan de manchar nuestras políticas y las victorias que esta nación conquista todos los días”, dijo Maduro de la protesta.

Por el momento, el debate constitucional ha tenido pocas repercusiones internacionales. Más de 20 delegaciones internacionales se encontraban la semana pasada en Venezuela para marcar el nuevo término de seis años de Chávez. Y la Organización de Estados Americanos y el Departamento de Estado de EEUU, entre otros, han dicho que respetan el fallo de la Corte Suprema.

Pero mientras más tiempo esté ausente el presidente, menos sostenible será la situación, dijo Gregorio Gaterol, un legislador de oposición.

“Este fallo de la Corte Suprema es una camisa de fuerza para la oposición”, agregó. “Pero con el tiempo, ella también se va a ver amarrada con esta decisión”.
211  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Venezuelans wonder how long they can go without a president on: January 15, 2013, 09:52:51 AM
If the president is Hugo I can do without him for ever.  grin

Venezuelans wonder how long they can go without a president 

President Hugo Chávez is in power but incommunicado and the Supreme Court says he can stay that way indefinitely. But how long can Venezuela go on without a president?


CARACAS -- Huddled in a doorway outside the pink and red presidential palace, Alexis León said he has faith that its tenant, ailing President Hugo Chávez, will be home soon.

Government officials insist that Chávez is alert and speaking to his family as he recovers from cancer surgery in Cuba. But in Caracas — where he hasn’t been seen or heard from in more than a month — there’s little to do but worry and wait.

“If he was my family member, I would also keep him from making any public appearances until he was completely recovered — anything for his health,” said León, 51, a theater professor. “He’ll be back; we just have to give him time.”

But many wonder how long Latin America’s fourth-largest economy can function with its leader in absentia and incommunicado.

On Monday, the coalition of opposition parties, known by its Spanish acronym MUD, released letters sent to the Organization of American States and the Mercosur trade group asking them to weigh in on what they see as a violation of the constitution that could “affect the stability of the region.” The coalition also asked to make its case before the permanent council of the OAS.

Despite Chávez’s frail health, the Supreme Court insists he is still in charge. That means that Vice President Nicolás Maduro does not have the power to appoint ambassadors or cabinet members or sign international treaties, legal experts said.

“How long do we have to wait for the president?” asked Miriam Berdugo de Montilla, an opposition lawmaker. “Who can tell us where the president is? What condition is he in? Where are they keeping him? Nobody really knows.”

The government says Chávez is in Havana being treated by an international team of experts for an undisclosed form of cancer that he’s been battling since at least June 2011. On Sunday, officials said he was alert and reacting “favorably” to treatment for a severe respiratory infection that has plagued his recovery.

But there are reasons for concern. Last week, Chávez purportedly sent a letter to congress asking for permission to miss his Jan. 10 inauguration. But the letter was signed by Maduro, not the president. And when tens of thousands of Chávez followers crammed downtown Caracas to mark his new six-year term, there were no recorded messages from Havana, as many were hoping.

“Imagine President Barack Obama not being touch, not even a picture or proof of life for 35 days,” Russ Dallen, a Caracas-based investor and journalist told a panel in Washington, D.C. on Monday. “It’s an amazing, amazing scenario.”

To complicate matters, the Supreme Court has turned down requests to send a medical team to Havana, and no doctors or independent observers have commented on his status. When a Brazilian diplomat visited earlier this month he called the president’s condition “grave,” but provided no details. Argentina’s Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Bolivia’s Evo Morales have also been recent visitors, but have remained mum about his condition.

The fact that the only people talking about the president’s health have a vested interest is suspicious, said Nelson Madrid, a 59-year-old music teacher who has lost confidence in the government reports.

“We need to hear from our president,” he said. “I really don’t know what’s going to happen we just have to hope it’s not bad.”

If Chávez were to die or step down, it should trigger new elections within 30 days. Before he traveled to Cuba, the president asked the nation to rally behind Vice President Maduro if he were sidelined by the illness. That would likely pit Maduro — a long time foreign minister — against Miranda Gov. Henrique Capriles, who lost to Chávez in October.

But none of the president’s followers have openly acknowledged life after Chávez. And the Supreme Court ruling presumes not only that he’s in charge but will return to be sworn in.

The opposition argues that Chávez’s absence on inauguration day required the president to be declared temporarily absent and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, also another Chávez loyalist, to take charge until the president returns.

“The most troublesome part is that the [Supreme Court] has, astonishingly, declared President Chávez is not absent and is in full control of his functions even though he’s been out of the country for more than a month and not even in condition to sign an official communiqué,” the MUD wrote to Mercosur, the influential trade group, which Venezuela joined in July.

For its part, the administration has called the Supreme Court decision a victory for democracy in a nation that overwhelmingly supported Chávez in the Oct. 7 presidential race.

The ruling has left the opposition with little room for legal maneuvering, but they have called for a peaceful march on Jan. 23 in defense of the constitution.

The government seems prepared for a showdown. Shortly after the protest was announced, Maduro called on security forces to be vigilant and shutdown opposition attempts to instigate violence.

“They’re trying to stain our politics and the victories this nation is conquering every day,” Maduro said of the protest.

For the moment, the constitutional debate has caused few international ripples. More than 20 international delegations were in Venezuela last week to mark Chávez’s new six-year term. And the Organization of American States and the U.S. State Department, among others, have said they respect the high court’s ruling.

But the longer the president is absent, the less tenable the situation will be, said Gregorio Gaterol, an opposition lawmaker.

“This Supreme Court sentence is a straightjacket for the opposition,” he said. “But over time, they’re going to get tied up in this decision also.”
212  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Russ Dallen on Venezuelan Supreme Court decision on: January 14, 2013, 10:14:55 AM
Received via email:

Good morning from Washington, D.C.  I have attached our latest BBO Report on Venezuela in which we take a look at the Venezuela Supreme Court's decision last week to interpret the Constitution to allow President Hugo Chavez to take the oath of office at a "later time and place" by being sworn in before the Supreme Court using the innovative new legal theory they introduced of "continuity."
I was fascinated to see that the Venezuelan Supreme Court reached all the way back to the one example in US history where a US Vice President was sworn in on foreign soil -- late and in Cuba, at that!
In 1852, Franklin Pierce had won the presidency and was sworn in on March 4, 1853, but his Vice President, Alabama Senator William R. King had developed tuberculosis (TB) and was in Cuba for the winter to get the warm air on his lungs to ease his symptoms.  TB was usually a death sentence in those days and he missed the presidential inauguration and in sympathy, his friends in Congress passed a law allowing him to be sworn in as Vice President from Cuba so that he might die with that title, and on March 24, 1853, 20 days late and on foreign soil, he took the oath of office.  Most ominously for Chavez, King returned to the US and died a few weeks later on April 18,1953.  Interestingly -- and confirming FDR Vice President John Nance Garner's comment that "the vice presidency is not worth a pitcher of warm spit" -- Pierce never filled the Vice President position for the rest of his term.
Of course, inaugurations took place later in the calendar in the 1800s, but Washington is all spiffed up and getting ready for Barack Obama's second inauguration on January 20.  In the spirit, I finally got to see Steven Spielberg's/Daniel Day Lewis's "Lincoln" at the movies.  Brilliant movie and you can see why it has 12 Academy Award nominations -- and why it is the first time Hollywood has voted for a Republican President in a long time!
I am in D.C. because I, along with former US Ambassador to Venezuela Charles Shapiro, former Senior
Advisor to the White House Special Envoy for the Americas Eric Farnsworth, and Chris Sabatini, Editor-in-Chief of the Americas Quarterly, will be speaking about Venezuela and our predictions and prognosis for what will happen there at the Carnegie Endowment today at 11 here in Washington, D.C.  You can watch the session on C-Span on your TV or online here:
As always, please don't hesitate to let me know if we can be of any assistance.

213  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Chavismo Takes The Path Of Maximum Illegallity In Venezuela on: January 08, 2013, 07:27:43 PM
Why am I not surprised?

Chavismo Takes The Path Of Maximum Illegallity In Venezuela

January 8, 2013

Chavismo and the Venezuelan National Assembly have today decided to follow the path of maximum illegality when they announced that Hugo Chávez will not show up on Thursday and will be sworn in a some time in the future by the Venezuela Supreme Court. At the same time, the National Assembly approved that President Chávez can take an unlimited leave of absence, something that it is unconstitutional and illegal.

The whole show is a bizarre and unnecessary twist to the problem of what to do with Chávez’ inability to be sworn in due to his illness, as this is simply a break with the laws and the Constitution that is likely to have repercussions beyond what Chavismo apparently believes.

The whole sequence of events is bizarre to say the least:

-It all starts by a letter by Vice-President Maduro, the person with the largest conflict of interest in all this, as his tenure as Vice-President clearly ends on Jan. 10th. with Chávez’ six year term. Moreover, there is not even the pretense of having Chávez sign the letter. If Chávez is doing better and will be able to be sworn in sometime soon, why didn’t he even sign the letter? Maduro clearly has no legal right to make this request for the Venezuelan President.

-As if this was not enough the National Assembly approves a spurious resolution, giving Chávez an unlimited leave and without even following what the law requires for a President, which is a medical committee giving an opinion and the Assembly approving the recommendation of such a committee. Only the Supreme Court could approve that you can extend to Art. 233 of the Constitution a President-elect, but under no circumstance could the Court or the Assembly grant Chávez an unlimited leave.

-In the case of a temporal absence, the Vice-President would become President, but since Chávez has not been sworn in, it is absolutely unconstitutional for current Vice-President Nicolás Maduro to extend his Vice-Presidency into the next term. Since Chávez has not been sworn in yet, and it Maduro says he will not be for a while, then the only legal solution is for the President of the National Assembly to become President until the situation is resolved with the approval of the Venezuelan Supreme Court (Which may still happen before Jan. 10th.)

What is scary about this whole situation is that if it does extend into Jan. 10th. Chavismo (And not Chávez! We do not know his opinion!) will be taking the country on a path of piling up one illegality on top of the other. This could take years to unravel, as someone has to run the country, but all decisions after Jan. 10th. will lack any legality and could be challenged some day. This could have dire consequences for the stability of the country medium and long term. Moreover, once someone decides to bypass the Constitution, all sorts of demons are unleashed among all of those aspiring for power.

I wonder if those demons are what is already causing these bizarre situation.

The question remains why this path has been chosen. Either Chavismo does not want or does not trust Diosdado Cabello as President or Chavismo (and the Cubans) have decided to turn the country into a Dictatorship, the Constitution be damned. The question is in the former case is why would Diosdado follow Maduro on this?

And as one analyst asked me yesterday: Will these guys even hold elections if Chávez dies?

You have to start wondering…

For the last few days, I have believed that a Constitutional crisis would be avoided when push came to shove. Right now, I can only sit here and hope that the Supreme Court will say something tomorrow, before Venezuela is taken into an unknown path packed with instability.

After Jan. 10th. anyone that sides with Chavismo and this foolishness will be on the side of illegality and and a coup. Remarkably, not one person on the Chavismo side has yet raised a voice of concern.

They have less than two days to speak up or side with those breaking with Venezuela’s Constitution.
214  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Chavez's Health and Schrodinger's Cat on: January 07, 2013, 11:32:31 AM
Received by email

Chavez's Health and Schrodinger's Cat

It is not often that we get to discuss quantum mechanics in relation to Venezuela, although my colleague Miguel does have a PhD from Harvard in physics, so over the years sitting on a trading desk next to each other you get to speak about almost everything as the days roll on.  (By the way, did you know that Venezuela had an experimental nuclear reactor -- the first in Latin America -- fifty years ago?  That came to light in one of our riffs back in 2008 when Venezuela President Hugo Chavez was promising to build a nuclear reactor with Russia in oil-rich Zulia state. ) 
But I could have never foreseen that we would be able to allude to Austrian physicist Erwin Schrodinger in this missive.  Yet, Chavez has become Schrodinger's cat.  In that theoretical experiment (for you cat-lovers out there, no actual cats were injured), a cat is in a sealed box and may be alive or dead. Or both, in theoretical quantum mechanics.  Likewise, we don't know if Chavez is alive or dead. Some reports say Chavez is basically in a coma or being kept alive on life support. The government keeps saying that his situation is 'delicate' and that he will return 'sooner rather than later.' But the fact is that we have neither seen nor heard from Chavez in almost four weeks since December 10 and we don't know what his real situation is.  Nobody is letting us see inside the box in Cuba and everyone (including Chavez) is lying or obfuscating the truth.  And yet, people are trying to continue to rule in his name, even bending the Constitution to allow them to stay in power after the Constitutional term ends.  And worse, because Chavismo controls the legislature, the courts and all the other governing institutions of the country, there is no place for the Opposition to go to resolve it.   As Opposition Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma put it "Our President has been kidnapped" and we don't even have a "proof of life." This could get messy.

Russ Dallen
215  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / The DIRTY TRICKS Continue on: January 05, 2013, 06:19:47 AM
The chavista Venezuelan Supreme Court is not an independent body. The court is populated with Chavez pupets and it acts like a rubber stamp. Now Maduro wants to use the rubber stamp to delay the swearing in of the president which it totally illegal.

I never doubted the dirty tricks were coming, the only unknown was the form they would take.

Chavez swearing-in can be delayed: Venezuelan VP

By Andrew Cawthorne and Deisy Buitrago | Reuters – 9 hrs ago

CARACAS (Reuters) - President Hugo Chavez's formal swearing-in for a new six-year term scheduled for January 10 can be postponed if he is unable to attend due to his battle to recover from cancer surgery, Venezuela's vice president said on Friday.

Nicolas Maduro's comments were the clearest indication yet that the Venezuelan government is preparing to delay the swearing-in while avoiding naming a replacement for Chavez or calling a new election in the South American OPEC nation.

In power since 1999, the 58-year-old socialist leader has not been seen in public for more than three weeks. Allies say he is in delicate condition after a fourth operation in two years for an undisclosed form of cancer in his pelvic area.

The political opposition argues that Chavez's presence on January 10 in Cuba - where there are rumors he may be dying - is tantamount to the president's stepping down.

But Maduro, waving a copy of the constitution during an interview with state TV, said there was no problem if Chavez was sworn in at a later date by the nation's top court.

"The interpretation being given is that the 2013-2019 constitutional period starts on January 10. In the case of President Chavez, he is a re-elected president and continues in his functions," he said.

"The formality of his swearing-in can be resolved in the Supreme Court at the time the court deems appropriate in coordination with the head of state."

In the increasing "Kremlinology"-style analysis of Venezuela's extraordinary political situation, that could be interpreted in different ways: that Maduro and other allies trust Chavez will recover eventually, or that they are buying time to cement succession plans before going into an election.

Despite his serious medical condition, there was no reason to declare Chavez's "complete absence" from office, Maduro said. Such a declaration would trigger a new vote within 30 days, according to Venezuela's charter.


Chavez was conscious and fighting to recover, said Maduro, who traveled to Havana to see his boss this week.

"We will have the Commander well again," he said.

Maduro, 50, whom Chavez named as his preferred successor should he be forced to leave office, said Venezuela's opposition had no right to go against the will of the people as expressed in the October 7 vote to re-elect the president.

"The president right now is president ... Don't mess with the people. Respect democracy."

Despite insisting Chavez remains president and there is hope for recovery, the government has acknowledged the gravity of his condition, saying he is having trouble breathing due to a "severe" respiratory infection.

Social networks are abuzz with rumors he is on life support or facing uncontrollable metastasis of his cancer.

Chavez's abrupt exit from the political scene would be a huge shock for Venezuela. His oil-financed socialism has made him a hero to the poor, while critics call him a dictator seeking to impose Cuban-style communism on Venezuelans.

Should Chavez leave office, a new election is likely to pitch former bus driver and union activist Maduro against opposition leader Henrique Capriles, the 40-year-old governor of Miranda state.

Capriles lost to Chavez in the October presidential election, but won an impressive 44 percent of the vote. Though past polls have shown him to be more popular than all of Chavez's allies, the equation is now different given Maduro has received the president's personal blessing - a factor likely to fire up Chavez's fanatical supporters.

His condition is being watched closely by Latin American allies that have benefited from his help, as well as investors attracted by Venezuela's lucrative and widely traded debt.

"The odds are growing that the country will soon undergo a possibly tumultuous transition," the U.S.-based think tank Stratfor said this week.

(Additional reporting by Marianna Parraga; editing by Christopher Wilson)
216  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Venezuela on: January 04, 2013, 12:20:51 PM
"When an elected President becomes permanently unavailable to serve prior to his inauguration, a new election … shall be held within 30 consecutive days.”

That is the crux of the matter. If Chavez can be sworn in Maduro becomes president. If not, chavistas have a good chance of losing the presidency. We fear that chavismo will go to any trickery to get Chavez sworn in, dead or alive.

Six days to go.

Denny Schlesinger
217  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Google: Chavez en coma on: January 04, 2013, 03:57:59 AM
Resultados búsquda "Chavez en coma"
218  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Hugo Chávez, en coma inducido on: January 04, 2013, 03:53:24 AM
Hugo Chávez, en coma inducido
Día 02/01/2013 - 03.46h

Fuentes consultadas por ABC aseguraron el lunes que se había programado una próxima desconexión

Hugo Chávez ha entrado en los últimos días en un coma inducido, con las constantes vitales muy debilitadas, mantenidas gracias a la asistencia artificial procurada el hospital de La Habana en el que fue internado. Fuentes consultadas por ABC aseguraron el lunes que se había programado una próxima desconexión de la asistencia artificial que prorroga la vida del presidente venezolano. Esa desconexión, con resultado previsible de fallecimiento, podía producirse en cualquier momento.

Las autoridades venezolanas aseguran que Chávez sigue con vida, aunque parecen estar preparando al país para la noticia de la muerte del líder bolivariano. Su yerno y ministro de Ciencia y Tecnología, Jorge Arreaza, dijo que Chávez había llegado al final del año «tranquilo y estable». Por su parte, el vicepresidente venezolano, Nicolás Maduro, indicó el domingo que su situación era «delicada».

Desde hace varios días, el estado de salud de Chávezse considera crítico, con sus funciones vitales asistidas artificialmente a raíz de la operación a la que fue sometido el 11 de diciembre debido al avanzado cáncer que padece y de las complicaciones del postoperatorio provadas por una infección.

Con fiebre constante, pérdida de conciencia y sin responder a los antibóticos, el presidente venezolano llegó a final de año en cuidados intensivos, sin ingerir nada sólido desde que fue operado hace tres semanas, con «ano contra natura» y alimentación intravenosa debido a la extracción de casi medio metro de intestino, de acuerdo con fuentes de inteligencia con acceso a su equipo médico. También sus funciones respiratorias se encontraban asistidas artificialmente tras la traqueotomía a la que fue sometido por una infección que motivó la retención de líquido en los pulmones. Ese cuadro se completa con insuficiencia renal.

En la operación llevada a cabo el día 11 para extirparle cuatro cultivos cancerígenos de pelvis e intestino, al presidente venezolano le fueron extraídos 43,4 centímetros de intestino delgado. Una biopsia llevada a cabo durante la cirugía también detectó células cancerígenas en las paredes internas del intestino y en la vejiga.

La operación, realizada por un equipo médico llegado expresamente de Rusia, con asistencia de médicos cubanos, también comprobó que la metástasis en hueso y médula espinal seguía progresando a paso constante. En condiciones normales esto hubiera requerido probablemente un próximo trasplante de médula, pero su estado ya tan deterioradono ha permitido más actuaciones.
219  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / The Death Watch Continues on: January 04, 2013, 03:48:12 AM
Spanish Newspaper Says Hugo Chávez Is In A Coma And On Life Support
Matthew Boesler    | Jan. 2, 2013, 10:58 AM | 3,177 | 8

Sources told Spanish newspaper ABC that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is in an induced coma and being kept alive on life support in a Cuban hospital following emergency cancer surgery on December 10.

UPI has more details from the report:

Sources told ABC Chávez was breathing through mechanical ventilation and being fed intravenously and rectally, and Russian doctors treating him said his kidneys were failing.

The doctors were considering ending the life support, the newspaper said.

However, Venezuelan Vice President Nicolás Maduro denied the report, saying that Chávez was in a conscious state.

Chávez recently named Maduro as his chosen successor should he be unable to serve his third term as president following his re-election in October. While Chávez has battled cancer for a while now, never has he taken the step of naming a successor, making the announcement significant.

Chávez is well known for his socialist government and economic policies. Investors have bid up both Venezuelan stocks and bonds this year (Venezuela was the world's best performing stock market in 2012) on hopes that the end of Chávez's rule in Venezuela will mean an end to those socialist policies and usher in a more business-friendly government.

Today, yields on Venezuelan government bonds are falling toward multi-year lows. The move reverses a climb upward in recent weeks after the Venezuelan government downplayed fears that Chávez's December 10 surgery didn't go well.

The yield on the Venezuelan 15-year government bond has fallen 40 basis points today.

Torino Capital CEO Jorge Piedrahita told Bloomberg News, "There is a clear correlation between the price of Venezuela’s debt and Chávez's health."

Today's report from ABC cites anonymous sources inside the hospital. Although it's been refuted by Maduro, it appears as if it's been enough to re-ignite investor speculation.

Read more:
220  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / The Death Watch Continues on: January 04, 2013, 03:38:03 AM
Yesterday I was struck by the headline: "The Post Chavez Era Is Here." In our highly regulated news industry, papers are not allowed to print what the government does not want people to see. If this headline was allowed it must mean that the government wants the people to get ready for a transition. Maduro, the bus driver turned vice president, has said that Chavez's condition was delicate. There are only six days to go to Chavez's inauguration. There has been talk about inaugurating Chavez on his sick bed in Havana, a truly preposterous idea but inline with Chavista opportunism.

This arrived by email:

Venezuela: Chavez In Coma - Report
January 2, 2013 | 0049 GMT

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's health continued to deteriorate Jan. 1, Colombia's Caracol Radio reported, citing a report from Spanish newspaper ABC. The report said Chavez is in a medically induced coma with weak vitals and that a biopsy during a Dec. 11 operation to extract 43.1 centimeters of his small intestine that left him unable to ingest solid food revealed cancerous cells in his intestinal wall and bladder. The report also said Chavez's cancer had spread to his spinal cord, the treatment of which requires a bone marrow transplant that he is unable to undergo because of respiratory complications.

Comments? Send them to
221  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Latin America on: December 29, 2012, 04:47:12 PM
Legalize drugs and be done with it. Did America learn nothing from Prohibition? Guess not!

Denny Schlesinger
222  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Latin America on: December 12, 2012, 08:34:49 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong. Crafty Dog was originally a New Yorker. Crafty Dog took up martial arts because he saw violence on the streets against helpless people due to poor law enforcement. Generalizing that New Yorkers are violent criminals is just as wrong as saying that Latin Americans are anti-American.

When STRAFOR sticks to geopolitics they do fine. When they stray to mass psychology they are talking a bunch of bull.

Talking about trading partners, when America outsources to China, is it a surprise that Latin American also trades more with China? Does that have to do with politics or with economics? Recently I have been seeing Chinese made cars and busses in Caracas. If a Chery is cheaper than a Chevy, what would you buy, all else being equal?
223  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Latin America on: December 12, 2012, 07:58:02 AM
This "anti-Americanism" idea is bogus. A lot of foreign visitors come to our marina. Many use it as a base to explore Venezuela. Then they write about their experiences and publish it on the web. I have collected their "cruising logs." Read for yourselves what visitors on the ground, not in some Washington think tank, have to say about it. I stopped collecting stories in 2008 because crime, unchecked by local law enforcement, has been on the rise thanks to Chavez's mismanagement and piss poor government. Some of you might recall how Rudy Giuliani cleaned up NYC. Were New Yorkers really different before and after Giuliani? Were 8 million New Yorkers crooks or was it just poor law enforcement prior to Giuliani?

What are sailors saying about Venezuela?
224  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Latin America on: December 12, 2012, 07:44:22 AM
Hard core anti Americanism in Latin America is bogus. We love MacDonalds, Levi's, iPads, Disneyland, rap and all that jazz. What the writer is missing is that a charismatic leader can sway the masses. Pit Bush II against Chavez and Bush is bush league.

Latin America does have a propensity for populism and clientelism  which keeps left of center parties in power most of the time but that is not anti Americanism. Out slogan is not "American go home, leave us alone" it's

American go home, leave us a loan
225  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Venezuela on: October 09, 2012, 11:41:06 AM
I wonder what to think of exit polls that showed Capriles leading narrowly.  I would think exit polls understate his support.  I didn't notice if we sent Jimmy Carter again to 'certify' the vote.

It should not be surprising because the vote is very polarized. Where I voted you can be sure it was 80% for Capriles. In other places surely it's 80% Chavez. In the US Republicans and Democrats might live side by side. Here adecos and copeyanos (people voting for the former two major parties) would also live side by side but not so for chavistas and anti-chavistas although the chavistas who have enriched themselves are moving out of the barrios and into the upscale neighborhoods.

I visited my beach condo two weeks ago. It's full of chavistas. I was told that the apartment sold to the local mayor fetched more than the owner thought she would get. Prices are back up to US$1,000 a square meter. They had been as low as $375 around 2004. Nothing has changed, only we have new "Amos del Valle."

If Jimmy Carter came likely he would be lynched -  the weasel. As far as I know there were no foreign observers, for all the good they did in the past, I certainly didn't miss them.

Denny Schlesinger
226  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / It's official, Venezuela lost. on: October 07, 2012, 10:10:11 PM
It's official, Venezuela lost.

Very high turnout, less than 20% abstention. First bulletin with about 90% of the votes counted:

Chavez 54.44%
Capriles 44.97%
Others 0.60%

Denny Schlesinger

Hugo Chávez Reelected With More Than One Million Votes

227  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Re: Venezuela Politica on: October 07, 2012, 08:36:06 PM
El día estuvo tranquilo. La votación normal aunque pareciera que hubo "Operación Morrocoy" por parte del gobierno. La gente se quejó y vociferó "¡Queremos votar!" Cerca de las 11 AM dejaron parcialmente sin efecto el primer capta huellas que era el punto de tranca.

Ya son las 9:00 hora local y todavía no hay resultados. En el exterior están diciendo que Pariles ganó 53% a 47%. Hay una calma extraña en el ambiente. Como siempre muchs rumores.

Capriles está optimista:

Henrique Capriles R.Verified
Calma,cordura,paciencia!Hoy fue una jornada histórica,grandiosa,un pueblo que habló!Sabemos lo que pasó y debemos esperar!Que viva Vzla!

Denny Schlesinger
228  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Chavez's socialist rule at risk as Venezuelans vote on: October 07, 2012, 04:07:01 PM
It's 4:30 VE (local time) and the weather is holding up just fine which is good news as people won't need to flee the rain.

Chavez's socialist rule at risk as Venezuelans vote

By Daniel Wallis and Todd Benson | Reuters – 14 mins ago

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelans lined up for hours in searing tropical heat on Sunday to vote in the biggest electoral test yet to President Hugo Chavez's socialist rule from a young rival tapping into discontent over crime and cronyism.

Henrique Capriles, a centrist state governor, narrowed the gap with Chavez in final polls thanks to a vigorous campaign that generated widespread enthusiasm, giving the opposition its best chance in 14 years to unseat the popular president and take the reins of South America's leading oil exporter.

Chavez has used record oil revenue to support ideological allies around the world while preaching a fiercely anti-American line, so the election is being watched eagerly from the United States and Cuba to Belarus and Iran.

Thousands of Chavez supporters lined the streets to welcome him as he arrived at the school in a Caracas hillside slum where he cast his vote. Some handed him flowers, and one elderly woman serenaded the president with a folk song in his honor.

"Today is a day of joy, a day of democracy, a day for the fatherland," Chavez said, adding that a massive turnout meant that voting could take longer than expected.

In a show of vigor, Chavez - who underwent grueling cancer treatment in the past year - shadow-boxed with U.S. actor Danny Glover, who was on hand with some other celebrity fans of the Venezuelan leader to watch him vote.

In poor neighborhoods, where Chavez draws his most fervent following, supporters blew bugles and trumpets in a predawn wake-up call. In the run-down center of Caracas, red-clad loyalists shouted "Long live Chavez!" from the back of trucks.

Despite his remarkable comeback from cancer, Chavez, 58, could not match the energy of past campaigns - or the pace set by his 40-year-old basketball-loving opponent.

Capriles, who showed up to vote in his lucky shoes, struck a conciliatory tone, urging Venezuelans resolve their differences at the ballot box.

"Whatever the people decide today is sacred," he said to screaming applause from supporters. "To know how to win, you have to know how to lose."

In wealthy enclaves of the capital, Capriles supporters geared up for the vote by banging pots and pans overnight.

"Today I'm doing my bit to build a new Venezuela," said Francesca Pipoli, 26, walking to vote with two friends in the city's upscale Sebucan district. "Capriles for president!" all three sang in the street. "Henrique, marry me!" said one.

In the United States, Venezuelan expats flocked to New Orleans to vote - mostly for Capriles - after Chavez closed the country's consulate in Miami earlier this year.


Most well-known pollsters put Chavez in front. But two have Capriles just ahead, and his numbers have crept up in others.

Some worry that violence could break out if the result is contested. There are no formal international observers, but a delegation from the UNASUR group of South American nations is in Venezuela to "accompany" the vote.

Local groups are also monitoring the election and both sides say they trust the electronic, fingerprint voting system. The opposition deployed witnesses to all of the 13,810 polling centers, from tiny Amazon villages to tough Caracas slums.

In a politically polarized country where firearms are common and the murder rate is one of the world's highest, tensions have risen in recent weeks as both campaigns used harsh rhetoric. Three Capriles activists were shot and killed by alleged Chavez loyalists on September 29 at a campaign rally in rural Venezuela.

After voting, Chavez pledged to respect the election results and called on the opposition - who he suggested could cry foul if he comes out on top - to do the same. Some opposition activists fear Chavez could refuse to step down if he loses.

A Capriles victory would unseat the most vocal critic of the United States in Latin America, and could lead to new deals for oil companies in an OPEC nation that pumps about 3 million barrels a day and boasts the world's biggest crude reserves.


Capriles wants to copy Brazil's model of respect for private enterprise with strong social welfare programs if he is elected - but he would face big challenges from day one. For starters, he would not take office until January 2013, meaning Chavez loyalists could throw obstacles in the way of the transition.

He would also have to develop a plan to tackle high inflation, price distortions and an overvalued currency, while surely butting heads with the National Assembly, judiciary and state oil company PDVSA - all dominated by "Chavistas."

Another big task would be to figure out the real level of state finances. Last month, a Reuters investigation found that half of public investment went into a secretive off-budget fund that is controlled by Chavez and has no oversight by Congress.

The president has denounced his foes as traitors and told voters they plan to cancel his signature social "missions," which range from subsidized food stores to programs that build houses and pay cash stipends to poor women with children.

Tens of thousands of new homes have been handed over this year, often to tearful Chavez supporters at televised events.

If Chavez wins, he would likely consolidate state control over Venezuela's economy and continue backing leftist governments across Latin America such as communist-led Cuba, which receives Venezuelan oil at a discount.

Any recurrence of Chavez's cancer would be a big blow to his plans, however, and could give the opposition another chance.

Investors who have made Venezuela's bonds some of the most widely traded emerging market debt are on tenterhooks.

"There is a perception that a tight electoral outcome may trigger social and political unrest and market volatility," Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

Voting runs from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. (1030-2230 GMT), although polls will stay open later if there are still queues. Results are due any time starting late on Sunday evening.

The electoral authority says it will only announce the results once there is an "irreversible trend" and parties are barred from declaring victory in advance of that announcement. (To follow us on Twitter: @ReutersVzla) (For multimedia coverage, go to

(Additional reporting by Andrew Cawthorne, Deisy Buitrago, Mario Naranjo, Liamar Ramos and Girish Gupta; Editing by Doina Chiacu)
229  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Electoral Tourism In Caracas on: October 07, 2012, 01:52:30 PM
Electoral Tourism In Caracas (visit the link)
230  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Back from voting on: October 07, 2012, 01:42:54 PM
I walked  from Los Caobos to Altamira, a leisurely one and a half hour walk. There was a big turnout al all the polling stations I went past but one. Despite being "3a edad" (senior citizen) it took me from 9:30 to 12:00 noon (2.5 hours) to vote. They were applying "operación morrocy" (delaying tactics). Only four fingerprint machines (capta huella) were working and getting past them was snail paced. The actual voting was quite fast. Early on the picture of your candidate took a long time to show up and if you pressed the vote button before the picture was complete you vote was null. The notice spread quickly. For me the picture of the candidate appeared instantly. Earlier there were stories about the picture taking for ever.

The delay at the fingerprint machines was so bad that they had to allow people (at least senior citizens) to go past them but to do that you first had to find out the book and page where you are listed. There was only one set of lists and the crowding and shoving was quite disagreeable.

Why they had the fingerprint machines when you had to use a second fingerprint machine to vote is quite beyond me. Either bureaucratic stupidity or purposeful delaying tactics. During the several days leading up to Sunday it had rained and my gut feeling is that the government was trying to get the opposition to go home without voting. Today was a beautiful sunny day in Caracas. When the process got to be very slow people started chanting "we want to vote!" I'm not sure if that had any effect on the "authorities" but it did get me past the fingerprint machines.

Turnout was strong at all the polling stations I went past but one but that one never seems to have a lot of people. People were happy and determined to vote. I think we will have a good turnout.

Denny Schlesinger
231  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Como votar este domingo on: October 05, 2012, 07:39:27 PM
Vista este vínculo para qur te enteres.

No dejes de votar! La abstención es mala.
232  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / The Oligarchy of Money on: October 05, 2012, 12:33:30 PM
Would you build your capitalist marketing plan on a communist tract?

We did when we set up our management consulting business in Caracas. We had to decide who to market to. We identified three markets:

1.- Government
2.- Local subsidiaries of multinational companies
3.- Venezuelan private enterprise

We decided on the third group, but, ¿Who to attack first? We figured we should go after the most prominent business groups because, if we succeeded with them, it would be easy to sell to smaller groups. The next question was ¿Who are they?

The answer was provided by a notable communist professor of the Universidad Central de Venezuela (our main communist hatchery, like UC Berkeley?), Doming Alberto Rangel. His 1971 book "la oligarquía del dinero" (The Oligarchy of Money), mapped the then current Owners of the Valley:

 1.- Vollmer-Zuloaga (then the richest group in Latin America)
 2.- Mendoza (Old man died, group broke up)
 3.- Banco Unión (Bank group broke up)
 4.- Boulton
 5.- Polar (Going stronger than ever)
 6.- Delfino
 7.- Neuman
 8.- Phelps
 9.- Sosa Rodriguez
10.- Blohm
11.- Tamayo
12.- Dominguez

Several groups have disappeared and current powerhouses like Cisneros (not on the list) were just upstarts. Vollmer caved in to Chavez to survive.

La oligarquía del dinero by Doming Alberto Rangel

Denny Schlesinger

233  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Venezuela on: October 05, 2012, 10:48:18 AM
Moreover, he has set a precedent that will force future Venezuelan politicians to prioritize populism and income redistribution.

Not really. Populism has been the centerpiece of all governments since 1958. What has changed is that Chavez is more anti business than his predecessors. It has been a see-saw.

Rómulo Betancourt, the first democratic president, unlike Chávez, was a real communist, but a pragmatic politician. When he started out he put an end to the so called "white elephants" -- grandiose public projects by General Marcos Pérez Jiménez. He soon realized that oil is what brings in foreign exchange but being capital intensive it employs few people. Construction, on the other hand, is labor intensive. Being pragmatic, Betancourt soon started up new public infrastructure projects. It took Chavismo almost a decade to start working seriously on infrastructure projects.

With successive governments the labor laws were made ever more labor friendly until production faltered badly. Then the governments reversed gears. Same with price controls, CAP instituted them during his first government and eliminated them in his second. Raising the price of gas at the pump cost him his job.

I've said it before and I say it again, Venezuela has never had a right of center government since 1958 nor is it likely to have one in the visible future, not until the private productive capacity matches the fossil fuel wealth, an unlikely scenario considering that Venezuela has one of the largest oil deposits in the world for a relatively small population.

To get a better understanding of Venezuela, Stratfor should read Los Amos de Valley (The Owners of the Valley, the valley being where Caracas is located), a humorous novel based on history. Venezuela has always had an "elite" but one that changes over time. The original elite was composed of conquistadors. Over time old members disappeared and new ones rose. The new ones came from distant places, the USA, Germany, the Canary Islands, Lebanon, Bohemia. Venezuela is as much a melting pot as the USA. What has happened now is that Chavistas have displaced some of the incumbent Owners of the Valley.

There is no revolution in Venezuela, no matter how loudly Chávez claims one. All that has happened is a "coup d'etat" or as we like to say: "quítate tu pa' ponerme yo" (let me have your place). Chávez is just a question of time. He is charismatic any wily. But he is as mortal as the rest of us.

It's a fun read! Los amos del valle (Spanish Edition)  by Francisco J Herrera Luque (Author)

Denny Schlesinger
234  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Security Message for U.S. Citizens: Venezuela on: October 04, 2012, 04:50:50 PM
Received via email:

Security Message for U.S. Citizens: Venezuela
Presidential elections in Venezuela will be held this Sunday, October 7. While the electoral campaign to date has been generally peaceful, incidents of violence have occurred. Demonstrations by supporters of the two main candidates may occur in coming days, particularly in the vicinity of polling centers and traditional gathering points. In addition to previous guidance provided to U.S. citizens, we offer the following recommendations for Sunday October 7, and prudentially, for Monday, October 8:
Minimize being out in public.
Keep cellular telephones charged.
Where possible, avoid polling stations and other large public gatherings.
 We wish to remind U.S. citizens that even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and possibly escalate into violence. American citizens are therefore urged to avoid the areas of demonstrations if possible, and to exercise caution if within the vicinity of any demonstrations. Since the timing and routes of marches and demonstrations are always subject to change, American citizens should monitor local media sources and the Embassy’s website, through the American Citizens’ “Demonstrations” link, for new developments.
Please review your emails for subsequent updates on the situation during the next few days.
For the latest security information, U.S. citizens traveling abroad should regularly monitor the Department's Internet web site at where the current Worldwide Caution Public Announcement, Travel Warnings and Public Announcements can be found. Up to date information on security can also be obtained by calling 1-888-407-4747 toll free in the United States, or, for callers outside the United States and Canada, a regular toll line at 1-202-501-4444. These numbers are available from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Monday through Friday (except U.S. federal holidays). To receive the latest security information American citizens traveling or residing overseas are encouraged to enroll in the State Department's Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) at
The U.S. Embassy in Caracas is located on Calle F con Calle Suapure, Lomas de Valle Arriba. The telephone number during business hours (8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.) is (011) 58-212-975-6411. For after-hours emergencies use (011) 58-212-907-8400. The fax is (011) 58-212-907-8199. Please check the Embassy website for additional information at
235  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Venezuelan elections this Sunday, Time to retire Chavez on: October 04, 2012, 04:43:49 PM
I don't know how Chavez could lose if he still controls the counting of votes, but let us hope...

He does and he doesn't. Each polling place is divided into "tables" depending on the number of voters assigned to the place. To vote you first check in then you vote on a voting machine which is connected to the CNE (Consejo Nacional Electoral) which is in charge of elections. That does give the government an advantage in that they can monitor the progress of the vote in real time. But the electronic results are not the official results. After you vote, the machine gives you a ticket with your choices printed on it. You deposit this ballot in a box. The vote is then manually counted at each table. Since there are members of most parties as witnesses at most tables, the opposition can easily tally the vote by sending the results by cell phone to the opposition headquarters. There are likely to be differences but they cannot be extreme. The opposition does need a resounding victory because if it is "too close to call" we'll lose.

The most recent trustworthy poll had Capriles wining by 3%. Pundits are hedging which is probably a good thing. Here is the latest:

Win or lose, Capriles may win in Venezuela

By Andres Oppenheimer

Anything is possible in Venezuela’s elections Sunday, but there is a good chance that opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski will do better than any of his predecessors in the polls, and that — win or lose — he will put President Hugo Chavez’s 14-year-old regime against the ropes.

There is a plausible scenario that even if Capriles loses by a narrow margin, a good showing in Sunday’s election will allow him to keep the opposition unified, and to become a viable alternative to a president who may have terminal cancer, and who has no successor who could beat Capriles.

Under Venezuela’s constitution, if the president dies within the first four years of his term, new elections must be held within 30 days. If Capriles emerged as a strong opposition leader from this election, he would have a good chance of becoming the next president before Chavez’s term expires.

Many analysts see change in the air. In a Sept. 26 report entitled “Now or in a little while,” Barclays bank told its clients that “even in the event of a Chavez victory, we think that given the signs of his weak health conditions, if not now, political change could come in just a little while.”

While Chavez looks better than a few months ago and says that he is free from cancer, there are serious doubts that he has fully recovered. There are some reasons to believe that he now looks better not because he is cured from cancer, but because he has interrupted his treatment.

A study of Chavez’s daily public appearances by ODH, a Venezuelan consulting firm, shows that the president’s average daily television appearances during the first three weeks of September were significantly shorter than during the same period in August, and also shorter than his public appearances during the same period before the 2006 elections.

That would be hard to explain unless Chavez is ill: It doesn’t make sense for him to reduce his public appearances in the final stretch of the campaign. And it doesn’t make sense for him to have campaigned much harder in 2006 — when he enjoyed a huge lead in the polls — than nowadays.

As for Sunday’s vote, Chavez enjoys a clear advantage thanks to a combination of slanted electoral rules, intimidation of opposition voters, massive use of government petrodollars and a virtual control of television time.

As Capriles told me in a recent interview, “this is a fight of David versus Goliath, where I’m running against all of the state’s resources” and “against a government that controls all the institutions, and plays dirty.” Still, Venezuelans are suffering from Latin America’s highest inflation levels, record crime rates, food shortages and power outages, and are eager for change, he said.

Several polls give Chavez a 10-point lead, although a recent poll by the respected Consultores 21 and others show Capriles winning by a 3 percent margin.

But most pollsters agree that they have never seen the Venezuelan opposition as energized as today. While in the 2006 presidential elections Chavez won 63 percent of the vote and opposition leader Manuel Rosales got 37 percent, most expect a much closer result on Sunday.

Barring a Capriles upset victory — much like happened in Chile in 1989 or in Nicaragua in 1990, where the opposition won despite facing equally unfair election conditions — he is likely to get closer to 50 percent of the vote. If he gets close to that, he will be seen by many as a president-in-waiting.

Skeptics say the “Capriles now-or-a-little-later” scenario is too optimistic, because Capriles has generated so much enthusiasm among his followers that a defeat on Sunday would demoralize them, paralyze the opposition and perhaps even divide it. Millions of anti-Chavez Venezuelans would conclude there was fraud, and that there is no hope for democratic change, the argument goes.

My opinion: I’m somewhat more optimistic. If Capriles gets close to 50 percent of the vote, he will play his cards well, and will not allow his political momentum to evaporate.

He is not likely to cry fraud if he loses by a margin that he can’t dispute, because doing so would encourage a widespread perception within the anti-Chavez movement that Venezuela’s elections are rigged, and that would lead many to stay at home for the December 16 governors’ elections, and for the April 2013 mayoral elections.

The odds are against Capriles, but he has better chances than any previous opposition leader to succeed Chavez. Win or lose on Sunday, he could still win in the end.

Read more here:
236  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Another refinery fire on: September 22, 2012, 11:36:27 AM
Lightning supposedly set ablaze two storage tanks in the El Palito refinery, the old Mobil Oil refinery. Mercifully no one was hurt.

That part of Venezuela has the most awesome electrical storms I have ever seen, the night lights up almost like day but with an erie blue amid terrifying crashes of thunder. But a properly protected installation should not fall victim to lightning and it hadn't for decades. I can only assume that it is part of the lack of maintenance on the part of our national oil company, PDVSA.

Crews extinguish fire at Venezuela's El Palito refinery

CARACAS (Reuters) - Firefighters extinguished a blaze in a fuel storage tank at Venezuela's El Palito refinery, state oil company PDVSA said on Saturday.

The fire was started by a lightning bolt during a storm Wednesday night, but the 146,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) El Palito facility continued operating. Two tanks were initially set alight, but the fire in one was put out within hours.

In a statement, PDVSA said the blaze in the second storage tank was completely extinguished late on Friday.

No one was hurt in Wednesday night's lightning strike.

The second refinery accident in a month has increased concerns about state oil company PDVSA's safety record and practices ahead of an October 7 presidential election.

In August, PDVSA halted almost all output at the country's biggest refinery, Amuay, for six days after a gas leak caused an explosion that killed 42 people.

PDVSA has suffered a string of accidents, outages and unplanned stoppages for maintenance across its refinery network in recent years, hurting the OPEC nation's vital fuel exports.

237  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Candidato vs. Candidato on: September 19, 2012, 12:17:54 PM
La elección presidencial es el próximo 7 de octubre. Las campañas están en pleno apogeo pero no los dos candidatos. La enfermedad de Chávez cada día lo merma mas. Esta tirita cómica lo dice todo:

Denny Schlesinger
238  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Chavez can no longer walkj on: September 15, 2012, 11:05:51 PM
Hugo Chavez: “As You Know, I Can No Longer Walk”
September 15, 2012

An emotional and weeping  Chavez confesses that he can no longer walk at a rally in Apure. Slip of the tongue or once again appealing to pity?
239  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / A Day In The Life Of The Venezuelan Opposition Candidate on: September 14, 2012, 08:23:04 AM
This article has lots of good pictures, I suggest you go read the original at:

A Day In The Life Of The Venezuelan Opposition Candidate

A Day In The Life Of The Venezuelan Opposition Candidate
September 12, 2012

Most days, the Capriles campaign tries not to pre-announce where they are going, in order to avoid Chavista thugs from trying to boycott the opposition campaign. This can not be done when he is going to a large city, where preparations are more complex, particularly in terms of security. A couple of weeks ago, Chavistas closed the Ciudad Bolivar airport to stop him from holding a rally that took place anyway. Today, it was Puerto Cabello´s turn.
From the early hours of the morning Chavista bands were blocking the roads and the airport, some arriving in Government owned vehicles. This is a picture of the main road to Puerto Cabello from the airport:

Is not a great picture, but you can see the red shirts blocking the road. this was not accidental, one of the Chavista organizers had tweeted it early in the morning:

“Today at 7 AM, in front of the Bartolome Salom airport the working people of Puerto Cabello say “no” to the fascist who sucks up to the Empire” said @denniscandanga, shown on the right pane as he participated in the violent actions of the day today.
And here is the picture of the airport:

where you can see how violent they got, and there is more in the following picture, where you see some action by the pro-Chavez thugs in the highway leading to the airport:

Of course, it was the property of the Capriles campaign that was damaged. This is what was left of the sound truck:

This is the truck that suffered less damage, the other one was not so lucky:

shown burning in the above picture and then later after it had been incinerated:

But it did not matter, candidate Capriles pressed on, arriving in Puerto Cabello by boat:

And holding the planned rally, which I am sure was much larger than expected as news of the aggression spread around Puerto Cabello (Although a third day of blackouts I am sure helped):

Of course, as Daniel reports, after the events, Government media said the injured were Chavistas and the aggressors were the opposition in the upside down world of Chavismo.

But Capriles did not let himself be intimidated, he pressed on and had a very successful day.

Just a day in the life of the opposition candidate in Venezuela.
(Who is the fascist here?)
240  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Death toll rises to 39 on: August 26, 2012, 06:21:46 AM
Many of the victims were national guard. Now they realize that the barracks were "too close" to dangerous installations. So much for planning!

Explosion kills 39 at Venezuela's biggest refinery
By Sailu Urribarri and Marianna Parraga | Reuters – 10 hrs ago

PARAGUANA/CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - An explosion tore through Venezuela's biggest refinery on Saturday, killing at least 39 people, wounding dozens and halting operations at the facility in the worst accident to hit the OPEC nation's oil industry.

Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez told Reuters no production units at the Amuay refinery were affected and that there were no plans to halt exports, a sign that the incident will likely have little impact on fuel prices.

Photographs taken shortly after the pre-dawn blast showed wrecked vehicles, flattened fences and giant storage tanks buckling and crumpling as flames lit the night sky. A National Guard building in the area was shattered and officials said a 10-year-old child was among the dead.

A gas leak caused the explosion and most of those killed were National Guard troops who were providing security for the 645,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) facility, Ramirez said, adding that the fire was under control.

"There was a National Guard barracks near the explosion. ... The installation was too close to the operations," Ramirez told Reuters in an exclusive telephone interview, adding that production could resume at Amuay within two days at most.

"We need to boost production at other refineries and look for floating storage near the complex," he said.

The incident follows repeated accidents and outages during the last decade across installations run by state oil company PDVSA that have limited output and crimped expansion plans.

Amuay has partially shut operations at least twice this year due to a small fire and the failure of a cooling unit.

Those problems have spurred accusations of inept management by the government of President Hugo Chavez, who is running for re-election on October 7.

Acrimony over the explosion could spill over into an already bitter campaign, but s unlikely to overtake larger political concerns such as crime and the economy.

"I want to convey the deepest pain that I've felt in my heart and soul since I started to get information about this tragedy," Chavez said in phone call to state TV. He declared three days of mourning.


Venezuela has traditionally been a big supplier of fuel to the United States and the Caribbean, but refinery shutdowns have become so common that they rarely affect market prices.

Traders told Reuters the docks at the refinery were shut, and tankers were anchored offshore waiting. They said this would cause delays to some of the country's exports.

The explosion broke windows at homes in the area, a peninsula in the Caribbean sea in western Venezuela, as well as at Amuay's main administrative building.

The blast was also felt out at sea in the Paraguana bay, where some crew members on moored tankers were knocked off their feet by the shockwave, one shipping source said.

Ramirez said the fire that started after the explosion had only affected nine storage tanks holding mostly crude oil and some processed fuels including naphtha.

Officials said two tanks were still burning off residual fuel, and a Reuters witness at the scene said large black clouds of smoke still hung above the area.

Ramirez said existing fuel stocks around the country were sufficient to guarantee 10 days of exports and local sales. PDVSA has no plans to invoke force majeure, he said, which lets companies stop shipments due to accidents or extreme weather.

Amuay, together with a neighbouring facility, forms part of the Paraguana Refining Center, the second-biggest refinery complex in the world, with an overall capacity of 955,000 bpd.

In 2010, there was a massive fire at a PDVSA fuel terminal on the Caribbean island of Bonaire, then a blaze at a dock at the Paraguana complex that halted shipping for four days.

Also in 2010, a natural gas exploration rig, the Aban Pearl, sank in the Caribbean. All 95 workers were rescued safely.

(Additional reporting by Deisy Buitrago, Marianna Parraga and Andrew Cawthorne in Caracas; Writing by Daniel Wallis; Editing by Kieran Murray, Sandra Maler and Todd Eastham)

241  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Venezuela on: August 26, 2012, 06:03:08 AM
Glad to have you with us again CCCS.

Crafty Dog, if one were to pay attention continually to politics one would lose one's mined! My interest remains constant but my attention to detail (and reporting) waxes and wanes as events unfold, specially events that can change the direction of the country like a election.

BTW, the refinery explosion toll had risen to 24 dead and 80 wounded by noon yesterday.
242  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Refinery gas leak blast kills 7 on: August 25, 2012, 06:40:21 AM
In Venezuela we don't need terrorists to blow up things, we have our government that does it just as well. The lack of maintenance in many government run operations has been throughly documented over the years. Just a week ago a bridge on the main highway east of Caracas broke in two:

Not too long ago it was the electric infrastructure falling to pieces. There have been plenty warnings about the lack of maintenance and dire predictions of the consequences but they have fallen on deaf ears until the inevitable accident occurs. Then denial and crisis management kick in.

I just hope this is a wake-up call for our voters. We need to kick Chavez out come October 7th.

Blast rocks Venezuela's largest refinery, kills 7

By Sailu Urribarri | Reuters – 2 hrs 15 mins ago
2 hrs 34 mins ago

PARAGUANA, Venezuela (Reuters) - A large gas explosion shook Venezuela's biggest refinery, the 645,000-barrels-per-day Amuay facility, in the early hours of Saturday, killing seven people, authorities said.

Another 48 people were injured by the blast, which originated in a gas leak and caused damage both within the facility and to nearby houses, the local governor said.

Based in the west of the South American OPEC nation, Amuay is part of the Paraguana Refining Center, one of the biggest refinery complexes in the world with an overall capacity of 955,000 bpd.

"There was a gas leak," Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez told state TV. "A cloud of gas exploded ... it was a significant explosion, there are appreciable damages to infrastructure and houses opposite the refinery."

Emergency workers were at the scene, where smoke and flames could be seen over the facility.

Local Falcon state governor Stella Lugo said the situation was, however, under control several hours after the explosion at about 1 a.m. local time.

"There's no risk of another explosion," she told state TV. "Right now, we're attending to the injured."

Amuay is operated by state-owned PDVSA which has struggled with repeated refinery problems in recent years, affecting its production figures and ability to fulfil ambitious expansion plans.

Power faults, accidents and planned stoppages for maintenance have hit deliveries from South America's biggest oil exporter.

Ivan Freites, a union leader at PDVSA, said foam was being used to control the fire.

(Reporting by Sailu Urribarri and Deisy Buitrago; Writing by Andrew Cawthorne, Editing by Rosalind Russell)
243  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Chavez’ Nationwide Address Interrupted, As Guayana Workers Protest on: August 20, 2012, 10:11:18 PM
Venezuelan presidential election is on October 7,_2012

Tonight was bad news for Chavez.

Chavez’ Nationwide Address Interrupted, As Guayana Workers Protest

Tonight, Chavez nationwide address was interrupted when Guayana workers broke into the stage and started protesting. Chavez tried to go into the Hornest Nest, but it did not work well. Guayana workers are tired of promises. Is this a turning point in the campaign?

And this was the preamble to the protest: Mr. President, we haven’t had a collective contract for three years. And one more thing…!

244  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / London bridge is falling down, falling down, falling down. on: August 20, 2012, 12:31:41 PM
Venezuelan Infrastructure Suffers From Fourteen Years of Chavismo

August 19, 2012

Caracas has three main highways that take you out to the rest of the country. For a few hours this weekend, only one of them was available, the Autopista Regional del Centro. The other two, the Autopista de Oriente and the Caracas-La Guaira highway were closed for different reasons, making life difficult for those wishing or needing to travel.

The Autopista de Oriente was closed because the bridge at Cupira, about 130 Kms. East of Caracas, collapsed last week, as you can see in the picture above. The School of Engineers of Puerto La Cruz had been warning since 2009 that the bridge was in bad shape, but the warnings, much like those of the viaduct in the Caracas La Guaira highway a few years ago, were ignored by the Chavista Government. On top of that, you can see in the picture the large truck crane sitting in the middle of the bridge. There are reports that this truck crane, leased by the Government, weights almost twice as much as Venezuelan laws allow for a vehicle. Nobody stopped it and it was not complying with the regulations for a large vehicle circulating in a highway. This may have contributed to the collapse of the 40 year old bridge.

The consequences are felt everywhere. This is vacation season and an estimated 30,000 people scheduled to return from Margarita island by Ferry in the next couple of weeks will have troubles doing so, unless they take a 4 to 5 hour detour. Add commerce and supplies to the East and you can see that the picture is not pretty. The first day of the collapse the Government said it would have an alternate route ready in three days, but word now is that it will take around 15 days for the alternate route to be ready.

Meanwhile, the Caracas la Guaira highway was shut down yesterday for 14 hours (it was less than that in the end) so that the steel beam of the bridge of a new distributor in the Caracas La Guaira highway could be put in place. This was obviously needed, the information was unclear. At the beginning of the week, I thought it would affect me and I would have to sleep at a Hotel near the coast, as I had an afternoon flight out. But the hours were changed magically and it did not affect me, but it did many others departing and arriving from Maiquetia airport. You only had two alternatives, either sleep at a hotel down by the Coast, or take the old Carretera Vieja, which is extreme adventure tourism because of its decaying state, as well as the possibility of being mugged. You can see the new steel beam below:

But the more interesting thing is why this distributor is being built. The Distributor leads to Ciudad Caribia, a supposedly “socialist” city invented by Chavez on one of his Alo Presidentes. People are given the apartments, but they don’t own them. But the worst part is that thousands of apartments have been built but transportation to and from that new city is terrible. The plan is to have over 100,000 people live there by the year 2018. The problem is that the Caracas La Guaira highway is already overloaded and there are no plans for an alternate route to the 59 year old highway. (I know exactly how long it has been around, my mother always told us about going to see the highway the day it was opened, despite the fact that she was nine months pregnant and gave birth to my sister the next day)

But this is typical of the improvisation of Chavismo. Ciudad Caribia was rushed, without having proper infrastructure for it. People are very critical of it and construction quality has been bad, with building walls falling down months after the construction has been completed. This is not unique to Ciudad Caribia. All over the country buildings are rising, without any additional infrastructure being built. In order to rush the housing units to completion, all ordinances are bypassed, there is no planning and the result is that the quality of life is simply lowered for everyone. I guess that is what they mean by socialism.

Chavez no longer has the excuse of blaming the previous Government. Venezuelan democracy was reinstated in 1958 and Chavez has governed for 26% of those years. Moreover, he has had immense resources but has little to show in terms of infrastructure. In fact, even housing is a late project by Chavez, conceived last year as a way of buying votes ahead of the upcoming election. Chavez track record in housing is so dismal, that he has yet to better the average of the Caldera years in any given year, despite the fact that oil was in the low teens when Caldera was President.

But his track record in maintenance is even worse. Electric projects, highways and bridges have been neglected. Prior to Chavez there would be maintenance, even if few significant infrastructure projects were built.  But those in charge of maintaining the infrastructure were slowly replaced by loyalists, many military officers. Venezuelan infrastructure has suffered fourteen years of neglect under Chavismo.

You would think that this would impact the upcoming Presidential vote. The excuse of the previous Government is no longer valid. After 14 years, Chavez really has little to show, so he resorts to selling ideology rather than facts in his campaign. Hopefully for Venezuelans, it will not work this time.
245  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Latin America on: July 19, 2012, 08:08:05 AM
Henrique Capriles Radonski (HCR) (Capriles: Sephardic Jews from Curaçao, Radonski: Ashkenazi Jews from Poland)

Some may wonder why I pointed out the double Jewish roots of the opposition presidential candidate. Venezuela has been an open society since independence. In the days of the divine right of kings the Church was all powerful. To gain prestige and position you first had to bribe the church, which held the records, and then the monarch. While in the thirteen colonies the cry was "no taxation without representation," in the south people were just as tired of being exploited by the mother country. Just as some of the Founding Fathers were said to be deists, Simon Bolivar was said to be a Freemason.

The denomination with the longest history of objection to Freemasonry is the Roman Catholic Church. The objections raised by the Roman Catholic Church are based on the allegation that Masonry teaches a naturalistic deistic religion which is in conflict with Church doctrine.[72]

Be that as it may, several instances of public anti-church behavior by Bolivar have been recorded, the most famous one after the Caracas earthquake which a priest said was god's punishment for the independence movement: "Si la naturaleza se opone a nuestros designios, lucharemos contra ella y haremos que nos obedezca." If nature opposes our designs, we will fight against her and make her obey us. In any event, the Church's power over Venezuelan politics was broken over the years.

Bolivar needed all the help he could get to fight the Spanish. He offered slaves their freedom to joint the patriots. There are parallels in Europe where weak kings offered citizenship to minorities in exchange of allegiance to the throne. This is how Hungarian Jews gained citizenship (and assimilated). This is how the Seclers became the border guards in Romania. [As told to me by my Hungarian cousin and a Secler friend]

Chavez's class and racial warfare are an aberration in Venezuela. It gained a few ignorant or hothead followers but the population at large is as open as it always has been. Chavez has tried to play the religious angle against HCR to no avail. Compare that to the difficulty of electing a Catholic or a black president in the USA. Civil rights came to Venezuela a long time before they landed in the USA.

Denny Schlesinger
246  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / Re: Latin America on: July 19, 2012, 06:49:41 AM
Venezuela badly needs capital to develop the sour and heavy crude oil fields near the Orinoco River in the country's jungled interior....

Given the STRAFOR is supposed to know geography, I find it strange they don't know that the area where the Orinoco sand tars exist is grassland, not jungle. The jungle starts a long, long way further south:

Los Llanos:

In the following map, the Orinoco sand tars are marked by a blue line. Grassland is shaded light green and jungle darker green:

All possible successors are aware that Chavez has been popular with the poor and lower-middle class, a large percentage of the population. Thus, redistributive economic policies are likely to continue, even as they may pave the country's road to further ruin. In order to afford these programs Venezuela will have to reverse the trend of declining oil production. For that, the next government will have to reverse policies that make Venezuela a chancy investment. These changes will require not only guarantees to investors but also changing key factors in the labor market, risking unrest. Despite the challenge to Venezuela's domestic political structure, without these changes, Venezuela's future looks rather bleak and dangerous.

Dictators don't allow themselves to be voted out of power. While Chavez still has a large following many of his former allies have defected. The Bolivarian street thugs are seldom seen these days. While I certainly don't know the details, the power structure has changed. Chavez is still the top dog but his potential successors have been maneuvering to gain strength for the coming power struggle. Lower oil  prices and lower crude production are taking their toll. After more than a decade the opposition has finally learned it can only have a chance united. The opposition is now behind Henrique Capriles Radonski (HCR) (Capriles: Sephardic Jews from Curaçao, Radonski: Ashkenazi Jews from Poland) who has held elected office during all the Chavez years and has been generally a well liked success. He is not associated with the old 4th Republic AD/COPEI parties.

Polls now suggest that HCR and Chavez are tied in popularity. Whether Chavez steals the election or not is still to be seen but hopefully by now the opposition has gotten to know all the dirty tricks it can expect. Ideologically many of us are disappointed by HCR's political proposals, in effect continuing the populist economy. On the other hand, the pragmatists realize that this is needed to win the presidency. Over seventy years ago Joseph Schumpeter made a very acute observation: "Liberal democracy is not about governing but about getting elected."

But populism and socialism need not be anti-American. Pragmatic socialist governments can be quite effective and, let's face it, Venezuelans love all the American toys and goodies from McDonald's to Disneyland, Nike shoes, iPhones and much more.

Denny Schlesinger

247  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Chavez maricón del siglo XXI on: October 22, 2011, 03:04:28 PM
¡Tan bellos agarraditos de manos!

Jaime Bayly - Chavez maricón del siglo XXI

248  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities / Politics & Religion / 21st Century FAG on: October 22, 2011, 03:02:21 PM
Aren't they cute?

Jaime Bayly - chavez maricon del siglo XXI

249  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / Hugo Chávez. Expectativa de vida: dos años on: October 19, 2011, 08:18:13 PM
Hugo Chávez. Expectativa de vida: dos años

Víctor Flores García

El mandatario pasó de problemas de triglicéridos y colesterol hace 20 años a una bipolaridad en tratamiento desde hace una década, y de ahí al agresivo tumor en la pelvis que exige quimioterapia y es de muy mal pronóstico.

El cáncer que padece el presidente Hugo Chávez ha conmocionado a Venezuela y a los aliados del mandatario. El médico que integró un equipo de galenos venezolanos en el Palacio de Miraflores para cuidar la salud del Presidente, antes de que éste confiara su vida sólo a médicos cubanos, aceptó conversar sobre el tema con M Semanal. El cirujano Salvador Navarrete Aulestia traza en esta entrevista el perfil del paciente Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, y su diagnóstico no es bueno: el Presidente sufre de un agresivo tumor maligno de origen muscular alojado en la pelvis. La expectativa de vida en esos casos puede ser de hasta dos años.

Entre firmes secretos, varios presidentes latinoamericanos han padecido en los últimos años un deterioro en su salud durante el ejercicio del poder: Fidel Castro heredó su sillón presidencial a su hermano Raúl en Cuba cuando estuvo al borde de la muerte en 2006; Néstor Kirchner enfermó siendo presidente y murió el año pasado, y su viuda Cristina muestra cuadros depresivos al frente de Argentina; el presidente paraguayo, Fernando Lugo, tiene cáncer; el uruguayo Pepe Mujica, de 76 años, ha dicho que sufre de estrés; el presidente Mauricio Funes no oculta su gran afición por el tabaco, mientras que la presidenta brasileña Dilma Rousseff se recupera de un cáncer linfático; Vicente Fox fue operado de la columna en pleno mandato y el ex presidente peruano Alejandro Toledo padece alcoholismo.

Haber cuidado la salud del presidente no es el único mérito del cirujano Salvador Navarrete, especialista en laparoscopía formado en Venezuela, Francia, Estados Unidos y Cuba. Ha publicado una treintena de trabajos y videos científicos, y obtenido una serie de galardones; entre ellos el premio Sociedad Venezolana de Cirugía, el premio Cipriano Jiménez Macías y el premio Ricardo Baquero González, en diversas ediciones del Congreso Venezolano de Cirugía. Este es su testimonio.

VFG: ¿Cuál es el perfil de Hugo Chávez Frías como paciente de un médico de la Presidencia?

SN: El presidente Chávez es un hombre que ha sido tratado en el pasado por una enfermedad de tipo maníaco-depresiva conocida por sus biógrafos y por los médicos que lo hemos atendido. Este padecimiento ha sido manejado antes por un grupo de siquiatras, encabezados por el médico Edmundo Chirinos, quien ha sido condenado en 2010 a 20 años de cárcel por el asesinato de una paciente en 2008. Ese tratamiento médico mantiene al Presidente compensado en sus manifestaciones de estados mentales inestables que pasan de la euforia a la tristeza, estados en los que la personalidad se disocia y llega a tener episodios de pérdida de contacto con la realidad. Es una enfermedad muy frecuente en el mundo de hoy, calificada como trastorno bipolar. El presidente Chávez oscila entre estos polos, con más tendencia a la euforia, a la hiperactividad y a la manía.

VFG: ¿Cuándo fue su primer encuentro con el presidente Chávez como paciente?

SN: Yo lo tuve como paciente en el Palacio de Miraflores en marzo de 2002, en vísperas del golpe de Estado en su contra, porque él estaba muy angustiado. El ministro de la Secretaría de la Presidencia, Rafael Vargas, quien vivía en la residencia presidencial, nos pidió crear un reducido círculo de médicos venezolanos de confianza para tratar los padecimientos del Presidente, sometido a una intensa presión y desgaste físico.

VFG: ¿Cómo era el trabajo de ese equipo médico con la misión de atender a un Presidente en la mayor crisis política venezolana de la última década?

SN: Fue una experiencia muy intensa. Nos hizo miembros del personal de la mayor confianza adscritos al Palacio de Miraflores. Éramos tres médicos venezolanos, un cardiólogo, un gastroenterólogo y este servidor como cirujano del equipo. De los tres yo era el único con militancia política, como miembro de la Dirección Nacional Ampliada del Movimiento Quinta República (MVR), fundado por el presidente Chávez, como parte de la Dirección de Formación Ideológica, que fue un gran partido hasta su conversión en 2007 como núcleo del Partido Socialista Unificado de Venezuela (PSUV).


VFG: ¿Cuál fue la experiencia de ese grupo de médicos venezolanos ante un paciente en el poder bajo acoso permanente?

SN: Nosotros tres fuimos a evaluar al Presidente en varias oportunidades. En aquella ocasión, hace menos de 10 años, había que hacerle una endoscopia superior e inferior (introducción de una cámara por la boca y por el ano). Por esa razón llegamos todos para protegerlo, para que ese padecimiento no evolucionara, pero él no se dejó examinar. Hoy en día, que se ha descubierto el cáncer que padece, el Presidente dice en público que se arrepiente de su soberbia ante las recomendaciones médicas.

VFG: ¿Se trata entonces de un paciente renuente y escéptico?

SN: El Presidente es muy desconfiado, muy, muy desconfiado. Él pensaba que no se iba a enfermar nunca. En una de esas ocasiones, él y yo tuvimos una discusión importante, cuando le reclamé la falta de responsabilidad política por no dejarse atender de sus males y por no dejarnos hacer nuestro trabajo médico de preservar su salud.

VFG: ¿Hubo consecuencias?

SN: El Presidente nunca se enemistó conmigo. Ese episodio quedó allí, en el vacío, y se diluyó aún más con las posteriores tribulaciones del golpe de Estado. Desde entonces descubrí muchas cosas en el entorno del poder y abandoné la militancia política, pasé a los “cuarteles de invierno” como asesor el gobierno en el área de Salud; pero no me retiré completamente. Dos años después, el entonces ministro de Salud, Francisco Armada, me nombró su representante ministerial en la dirección del Hospital Universitario de Caracas, cargo que mantuve hasta julio de este año cuando, felizmente, después de haber renunciado dos veces, la ministra actual, que fue alumna mía, Eugenia Sader, aceptó mi retiró de un cargo que ocupé desde 2005 hasta julio de 2011, con una carta muy bonita de agradecimiento. Era un cargo público honorario muy interesante que me mantuvo activo en la dirección hospitalaria, no obstante que pasaron tres ministros ex militares no muy transparentes. Ahora me dedico plenamente a la actividad médica y académica.


VFG: ¿Qué tipo de persona resultó ser el Presidente en las auscultaciones médicas que se dejó hacer en aquella ocasión?

SN: Es un hombre muy, muy limpio, es notable que incluso se hace cuidar las uñas de las manos y los pies, eso es una cosa que llama muchísimo la atención en él, un militar. El Presidente tiene muy buena presencia y un magnetismo muy particular. Es un hombre que cuida muchísimo su aspecto personal, que siempre está arreglado, que no huele mal, pulcro, que se preocupa por estar físicamente en forma. Es un hombre de poder interesante, poco dado a la lectura sistemática, lee fragmentos que trata de atar en su imaginario ideológico, que puede oscilar de un bando a otro.

VFG: ¿Cuál fue la adicción más notable registrada en su expediente?

SN: Es un hombre que toma mucho café, muchísimo, consume un incontable número de tazas de café al día. Fuma en situaciones de tensión o por placer, en privado, nunca en público. Trabaja hasta altas horas de la noche todos los días, es noctámbulo, y hace que sus ministros trabajen a su mismo ritmo. Se levanta a las seis y media o siete de la mañana, con un promedio de sueño de unas tres o cuatro horas diarias, no más de eso, y duerme muy poco. Es un hombre fuerte, aunque ahora esté deforme por los efectos de la quimioterapia.

VFG: ¿Qué registros tiene la historia previa de la hoja clínica presidencial?

SN: No tiene operaciones ni antecedentes de cirugía. Tiene un antecedente de trastorno metabólico, llamada dislipidemia, es decir, colesterol y triglicéridos altos. Para aquel momento no se lo estaba tratando, manifestaba tendencia a la tensión arterial alta; pero no era hipertenso, apenas con unos cinco o seis kilos de más, con unos 82 kilos, no como ahora. Es hombre alto y fuerte, con 1.79, 1.80 de estatura.

VFG: ¿Cómo saltó ese paciente una década después a un cuadro clínico de un cáncer?

SN: El Presidente decidió cambiar de rumbo radicalmente meses después del golpe de Estado en su contra. Abandonó a todos los médicos venezolanos y se puso absolutamente en manos de los médicos cubanos. Hace un mes nos reunimos con gente muy cercana al Presidente y les dije lo mismo que le dije a él una vez en Miraflores, cuando fue mi paciente: que no hay conciencia del impacto político nacional del tema de la salud de Presidente. La respuesta de estas personas de su entorno fue la misma: que a él no se le puede decir nada sobre su salud, que no le hace caso a nadie, mucho menos a los venezolanos.

VFG: Hay mucha especulación sobre el tipo de cáncer que aqueja al Presidente, ni él mismo ni nadie lo ha dicho.

SN: Voy a ofrecer la información que tengo sobre esa base que usted me propone. El presidente Chávez tiene un tumor de la pelvis que se llama sarcoma. Esos son tumores retro-peritonales, del suelo de la pelvis. Desde el punto de vista embriológico pueden ser de tres tipos: del mesodermo, del ectodermo o del endodermo. La información que yo tengo de la familia es que él tiene un sarcoma, un tumor muy agresivo de muy mal pronóstico y estoy casi seguro que esa es la realidad. Por eso le están aplicando una quimioterapia tan agresiva, porque si fuera un cáncer de próstata, le pones hormonas y ya, ni te das cuenta que está tomando tratamiento.

VFG: ¿Está descartado entonces un tumor de próstata?

SN: No es un tumor de próstata. Es un tumor que está muy cerca de la próstata y que probablemente invadiendo su vejiga. O es un tumor que se origina en la vejiga y que está invadiendo la pelvis. En todo caso, es un tumor que se origina en la parte de abajo de la pelvis, que es considerada la región anatómica que está dentro de las caderas. Atrás de esa región están los músculos psoas ilíacos, que es el músculo que, insertándose en la columna lumbar, levanta el fémur hacia arriba. Es el músculo que permite levantar la rodilla estando sentado. Por eso pensamos que el tumor es de naturaleza muscular, que está alojado y originado allí; lo digo porque, antes de ser sometido a la intervención quirúrgica para extraer el tumor maligno del tamaño de una pelota de beisbol, el Presidente resintió un problema en la rodilla: un dolor referido. Por eso estamos casi seguros de que se trata de ese tipo de cáncer. Esa es un información que por el natural interés público la hemos ido integrando, construyendo poco a poco. Soy el cirujano de la familia y me reuní con otro de sus médicos (de la familia), compartimos la información disponible y coincidimos plenamente en este diagnóstico que estoy haciendo.

VFG: La pregunta inevitable que todo el mundo se hace es: ¿cuál es el rango de la expectativa de vida con el cuadro similar al del presidente Chávez?

SN: Nosotros pensamos que el pronóstico del presidente Chávez no es bueno. Y cuando digo que el pronóstico no es bueno significa que la expectativa de vida puede ser de hasta dos años. Esto explica la decisión de adelantar las elecciones.


VFG: ¿Un presidente enfermo es el resultado de dos décadas de estrés, desde el golpe de Estado que dio en 1992 hasta los 12 años que lleva en el poder?

SN: Los hombres en el poder son individuos que se creen poseídos por una fuerza sobrenatural. Para aspirar a la Presidencia de un país debes tener una condición emocional diferente a la mayoría de la gente, porque debes tener mucha ambición y mucho fuelle para poder quitarte tanta gente del camino y poder llegar a la toma del poder y preservarlo. Eso configura un estado psíquico y emocional muy particular. Tener los cojones para aspirar a dirigir un país de 50 millones de habitantes, o 30 o 20 millones, requiere de algo más que voluntad.

VFG: ¿Usted conoce a la familia del Presidente porque los ha operado como cirujano, hay una tendencia común a ciertas enfermedades?

SN: Ellos tienden a tener enfermedades vasculares por parte de los Chávez, de la rama paterna. Él sufrió un accidente cerebro-vascular. Y por parte de la madre, de los Frías, tienen la tendencia a tener tumores. Operé a su madre de un tumor benigno del cuello en 1999, junto con otro colega médico de la familia que aún frecuento. Y ahora es una mujer muy sana y muy fuerte. Pero el presidente Chávez era un hombre sano cuando lo examiné en el marco que llevó al golpe de Estado de 2002. Sólo padecía un problema con elevado colesterol y elevados triglicéridos, y un problema mental de conducta bipolar bajo tratamiento. Esa enfermedad alguien de la familia la debe tener, una antecesor, porque definitivamente el presidente Chávez la tiene, pero no sabemos de quién la heredó.

VFG: ¿Son cubanos también los médicos de la familia del Presidente?

SN: No, los médicos de la familia somos nosotros.

VFG: ¿Y por qué los cubanos y no los venezolanos ocupan ese lugar, se volvió desconfiado el Presidente?

SN: Absolutamente, el presidente Chávez no confía en nadie ahorita.

VFG: ¿En nadie?

SN: En nadie. En Venezuela el presidente Chávez no confía en nadie, sólo en los cubanos. De hecho, en el Hospital Militar hay actualmente un piso preparado por si le pasa algo al Presidente y todo el personal es absolutamente cubano. Ni siquiera los camilleros son venezolanos.

VFG: ¿Eso explica la versión imprecisa publicada por el Miami Herald sobre la hospitalización del presidente Chávez hace un par de semanas?

SN: Con certeza puedo decir que entre el domingo 25 y el lunes 26 de septiembre lo dializaron porque el riñón no estaba filtrando bien los medicamentos y él estaba sufriendo. El lunes, colegas médicos tuvieron que sacar una máquina de diálisis del Hospital Militar de Caracas hacia el Palacio de Miraflores.

VFG: Fue en su habitación del Palacio de Miraflores donde usted lo auscultó alguna vez. ¿Cómo es esa intimidad del Presidente de Venezuela?

SN: Es una habitación muy sencilla y ordenada, como es él. Con una biblioteca muy pequeña, con las lecturas que elige para el momento, todo muy pulcro; debo insistir en que es una persona muy meticulosa y limpia, ordenada, austera, así es él.

VFG: ¿Cuál es el escenario con Chávez enfermo en 2012?

SN: Ese escenario tiene dos opciones: uno con Chávez candidato y otro sin él. El Presidente puede morir y los militares tendrán que tomar el poder por un tiempo; o, si su enfermedad le impide ir como candidato, el oficialismo perdería las elecciones. Si llega en condiciones de salud aceptables para una campaña electoral, según información reciente, tiene más de 55 por ciento de aceptación en popularidad, pero como candidato Chávez registra 35 puntos, un candidato independiente que aún no tiene nombre recibiría el mismo 35 por ciento y el candidato opositor sólo 22 puntos. Esas son las consecuencias de la enfermedad del Presidente.

El médico venezolano Salvador Navarrete.

Médico cirujano, especialista en cirugía bariátrica y metabólica, egresado de la Facultad de Medicina, Escuela Luis Razetti, Universidad Central de Venezuela, en 1981. Posgrado realizado en el Hospital Universitario de Caracas, donde obtuvo el título de Especialista en Cirugía General.

Realizó su entrenamiento en Francia, Estados Unidos y Cuba, especializándose en cirugía laporoscópica. Asimismo, fue visitante asistente de la Unidad de Laparoscopia dirigida por el prestigioso doctor Moisés Jacobs en el Baptist Hospital de Miami.

Como especialista en cirugía de la obesidad, cuenta con una extensa participación como panelista y expositor en congresos y jornadas médicas realizadas en Venezuela, así como en Japón, Brasil, España, Estados Unidos y Perú, entre otros países.

El doctor Navarrete tiene más de una treintena de trabajos publicados y videos científicos, los cuales le han valido una serie de reconocimientos, entre ellos los siguientes: Premio Sociedad Venezolana de Cirugía, Premio Cipriano Jiménez Macías y Premio Ricardo Baquero González, entregados en diversas ediciones del Congreso Venezolano de Cirugía.

Ha sido jefe del Equipo Quirúrgico del Hospital Universitario de Caracas; jefe de Residentes del Servicio de Cirugía II y actualmente es jefe de la Unidad de Cirugía Endoscópica del Hospital Universitario de Caracas.

Su actividad como docente en la Escuela Luis Razetti de la Facultad de Medicina de la Universidad Central de Venezuela ha sido extensa, incluyendo Coordinador General del Posgrado de Cirugía General y Coordinador del Internado de Pregrado de Cirugía General de la Cátedra de Clínica y Terapéutica Quirúrgica B del Hospital Universitario de Caracas.

Actualmente es coordinador del Posgrado de Cirugía General del Hospital Universitario de Caracas y jefe de la Cátedra de Clínica y Terapéutica Quirúrgica B.

El doctor Navarrete comparte su actividad profesional entre el Hospital Universitario de Caracas, la Clínica El Avila y la Clínica Santa Sofía. Pertenece a numerosas sociedades científicas: fundador de la Sección de Cirugía Endoscópica y de la Sección de Cirugía Bariátrica integradas a la Sociedad Venezolana de Cirugía, así como fundador de la Sociedad Venezolana de Cirugía Bariátrica y Metabólica.

Es miembro de la Asociación Latinoamericana de Cirugía Endoscópica, The Society of Laparoendoscopic Surgens y de la Sociedad Española de Cirugía Laparoscópica, entre otras.

Llego via email

250  DBMA Espanol / Espanol Discussion / La desbandada chavista.... on: October 19, 2011, 07:58:29 PM
La desbandada chavista....

Desde su llegada a Cuba el domingo, 17 de octubre, el presidente venezolano, Hugo Chávez, ha empleado un tono muy optimista, e incluso religiosos cuando se habla de la evolución de su cáncer de misterioso.

En un mensaje publicado en su cuenta de Twitter el día que llegó a la isla, Chávez dijo que encendió Al día siguiente, de nuevo Twitter, diciendo que "una vela a Cristo y otros santos, con la promesa.": "Esperamos que con la fe en Dios . "

Sin embargo, pocos creen que Chávez es derrotar el cáncer, como él afirma. Esta incredulidad no se limita a Venezuela, sino que se extiende en el extranjero.

He aquí algunos ejemplos:
• El departamento de estado, funcionarios del Departamento encargados de supervisar los asuntos de Venezuela, ya están trabajando en una etapa post-chavismo. "Hay mucha preocupación sobre lo que sucederá en Venezuela después de Chávez ya no está en el poder", un ex funcionario de EE.UU. familiarizado con la situación me dijo en una reunión la semana pasada en Washington.

• El gobierno de Obama podría agregar a los funcionarios militares y más de Venezuela en la lista de la OFAC de personas que colaboran con narcoterrorismo antes de lo esperado, un hecho sin precedentes que pondrá más presión sobre Caracas.

• Miami se ha convertido en un punto caliente para los disidentes chavistas que están tratando de anticipar el caos que será el resultado de la progresiva debilidad del presidente venezolano. Los oficiales y funcionarios venezolanos ya han comenzado los contactos informales con agencias federales de EE.UU., a cambio de protección.

• La revelación más reciente - aprendió esta semana - que la esperanza de Chávez, la vida se mide en pocos meses, puesto que el gobierno de Caracas, en un dilema existencial que agrega combustible a las preguntas de fuego sobre la sucesión de Chávez, un tema crucial que amenaza el chavismo sí mismo.

Salvador Navarrete, un renombrado cirujano que fue el médico de cabecera de Chávez y su familia, y co-fundó el izquierdista Movimiento Quinta República (Movimiento Quinta República, MVR), junto con Chávez, reveló secretos delicados de salud acerca de la familia del presidente venezolano. Navarrete afirmó que cree que el cáncer de Chávez es tan agresivo que la vida del controvertido líder, no puede extenderse más allá de 2013.

En la entrevista, publicada por el semanario Milenio de México, Navarrete citó fuentes de primera mano, como otros médicos con acceso privilegiado a la historia clínica de Chávez, así como algunos de los parientes cercanos de Chávez. El pronóstico, todos están de acuerdo, es peor que el propio Chávez admitió públicamente, estimando que sólo puede tener 2 años de vida.

El informe del ex médico personal de Chávez coincide con otros informes de fuentes oficiales que tenía acceso, incluyendo un informe publicado el pasado mes de julio de internos entre altos funcionarios del Ministerio del Interior y Justicia.

El cáncer de Chávez está causando angustia significativa en los mercados internacionales, así como las declaraciones extrañas de los analistas en los EE.UU..

"El enfermo es él, el mejor para la deuda venezolana. Tan pervertido que pueda parecer, es una realidad ", dijo Enrique Alvarez, experto en deuda de América Latina de IDEAglobal de Nueva York, según Reuters.

La respuesta del gobierno de Chávez a esta difícil situación ha sido, por lo general, para empujar a fondo el acelerador.

El pasado lunes, la Corte Suprema de Venezuela - controlado por chavistas - dictaminó que el mandato de la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos (CIDH) el restablecimiento de los derechos políticos del candidato opositor Leopoldo López era "inaplicable", ya que violan abiertamente los acuerdos firmados entre Venezuela y los CIDH.

El martes, la Comisión Nacional de Telecomunicaciones (Conatel) impuso una multa sin precedentes de $ 2.1 millones a Globovisión, el único canal privado independiente en el país. Globovisión, a menudo crítico con el gobierno, fue multado después de cubiertos y de difusión los detalles de una rebelión carcelaria en Venezuela, una historia que era perjudicial para la reputación ya manchada por el gobierno.

Los casos de Leopoldo López y Globovisión han sido denunciados en los organismos regionales como la Sociedad Interamericana de Prensa (SIP) y la Organización de Estados Americanos.
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