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September 17, 2014, 08:54:25 PM

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 on: Today at 08:09:39 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog 

 on: Today at 07:27:28 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog

And an even more important preamble and part of the Constitution that pertains more to us today: The preamble to the Bill of Rights. (Please note the second paragraph that 'explicitly' states the reason these rights are being added to the Constitution before final ratification by the States.


Congress of the United States
begun and held at the City of New-York, on
Wednesday the fourth of March, one thousand seven hundred and eighty nine.

THE Conventions of a number of the States, having at the time of their adopting the Constitution, expressed a desire, in order to prevent misconstruction or abuse of its powers, that further declaratory and restrictive clauses should be added: And as extending the ground of public confidence in the Government, will best ensure the beneficent ends of its institution.

RESOLVED by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America, in Congress assembled, two thirds of both Houses concurring, that the following Articles be proposed to the Legislatures of the several States, as amendments to the Constitution of the United States, all, or any of which Articles, when ratified by three fourths of the said Legislatures, to be valid to all intents and purposes, as part of the said Constitution; viz.

ARTICLES in addition to, and Amendment of the Constitution of the United States of America, proposed by Congress, and ratified by the Legislatures of the several States, pursuant to the fifth Article of the original Constitution.

 on: Today at 05:54:14 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ccp

 on: Today at 05:40:37 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
Rate Hikes Approaching To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 9/17/2014

We count five major takeaways from todayís activity at the Federal Reserve.

First, quantitative easing (QE) still looks on track for winding down at the end of October. As expected, the Fed announced it would cut its purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities to $15 billion in October and expects to announce an end to QE at the next meeting, which is October 29th.

Second, the median view among Fed officials is for a slightly faster increase in short-term rates. Back in June, the consensus was for the top of the federal funds target range to be 1.25% at the end of 2015; now itís 1.5%. Previously the consensus was around 2.5% for the end of 2016, now itís 3%. As a result, it now looks like the Fed will start raising rates by April 2015, perhaps even as early as the first quarter. To confirm this, look for the Fed to dump the ďconsiderable timeĒ language later this year.
Third, once it starts raising rates, the Fed will try to control the federal funds rate by using the interest it pays banks for holding excess reserves. It will also use reverse repos to help control the funds rate, but only as much and as long as needed. The Fed says it wonít use reverse repos for other purposes.

Fourth, the Fed isnít going to outright sell securities from its portfolio to unwind its bloated balance sheet. After starting to raise the funds rate, the Fed will eventually allow its balance sheet to shrink in a passive way, by letting securities gradually mature without full reinvestment. The Fed is particularly reluctant to sell mortgage-backed securities (MBS), but may eventually do so several years down the road to clean up some long-dated securities on its books that wonít mature anytime soon. Long-term, the Fed intends to go back to holding almost all Treasury securities, not a large portfolio of MBS.

Last, where thereís smoke, thereís fire. Two Fed officials dissented from the statement, both Philadelphia Fed Bank President Charles Plosser and Dallas Bank President Richard Fisher. More importantly, both dissents were from hawks, which suggests that if the Fed makes any changes in policy or projections at the next couple of meetings, itís more likely to get more hawkish than more dovish.

The Fed also made some minor changes to the language in its statement, noting that the unemployment rate is little changed since the last meeting and the economy is expanding moderately after the downside surprise in Q1 and sharp rebound in Q2.

The bottom line is that the Fed has been and will remain behind the curve. Nominal GDP Ė real GDP growth plus inflation Ė is up 4.2% in the past year and up at a 3.7% annual rate in the past two years. A federal funds target rate of nearly zero is too low given this growth. Itís also too low given well-tailored policy tools like the Taylor Rule.
Hyperinflation is not in the cards; the Fed will keep paying banks enough to keep the money multiplier depressed. But, given loose policy, we expect gradually faster growth in nominal GDP for the next couple of years. In turn, the bull market in equities will continue to prevail and the bond market is due for a fall.

 on: Today at 05:29:03 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
 shocked shocked shocked angry angry angry

May I ask you to post this on the Privacy thread as well?  TIA.

 on: Today at 05:26:54 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
Because of this post, I have added the word "treason" to the title of this thread

 shocked shocked shocked shocked shocked shocked shocked shocked shocked shocked

 on: Today at 05:25:02 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by G M

 on: Today at 05:13:05 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog

Rand is making some sense here , , ,

 on: Today at 04:14:01 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ccp

 on: Today at 03:39:22 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
Please post on "The Way Forward" thread.

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