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November 24, 2015, 10:24:08 PM

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 on: Today at 09:49:00 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Body-by-Guinness
They'll keep tilting at windmills nonetheless, because that's what political elites do:

 on: Today at 09:30:08 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Body-by-Guinness

 on: Today at 09:06:24 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ppulatie
Nothing to see here.  It was only Russia.

I wonder if we will ever get the real story on this. I would trust the Turkey version as much as I would trust either the Russian or US version.

 on: Today at 09:04:37 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ppulatie

Thank you for posting this. It certainly suggests something to be concerned about.


Good catch on Rubio's favorability.....

Now, here is the rest of the story with this poll.

1. Margin of error on Pubs and Dems 6.00%.  Pure garbage, nothing else.

2. Partisan breakdown  33% Dem, 23% Rep, 37% Ind

Say what?  23% Pub?  This is absolute CRAP!  I can never remember seeing a poll using 23% or even one under 30% for Reps in any election.

This is an Agenda Driven poll, pure and simple. There is no other way to describe it. It was set up to push Carson's favorable ratings at the expense of everyone else.

As to land line vs on line polling, there is something to be aware of. Gallup stopped polling on the election because of the problems with live polling now. People no longer answer their phones, have only cell phones or refuse to conduct the survey.. They found that this pattern has for the past few cycles introduced a "confidence" problem in polling and they could not weight properly for this issue.

On line polls have gotten better because they sample large numbers of people, several thousand, and then they weight for the differences.

 on: Today at 07:59:28 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by G M
Becomes today's headlines....

I'm sure Putin will be fine with this.

 on: Today at 12:58:28 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
I was under the impression that Rubios favorability ratio was better than that but overall I think Doug's point about Trump's ceiling is quite sound.

Only one candidate going up against Hillary scores 50% and that is Rubio.  I know Pat sees Rubio as GOPe because GOPe can support him (especially over Trump!) but when Rubio ran and won for Senate it was scored as a Tea Party triumph.  He's only been in Washington a few years and has earned respect for his foreign policy chops.  Contrast Trump who a few weeks ago thought it OK to hand off the Middle East to Putin with nary a thought as to the Axis that Putin is forming.

I caught Trump on O'Reilly tonight and O'R was giving him some good advice about not re-tweeting unvetted data and Trump's attitude was "Whatever".   Within the Rep primaries he can get away with this because of the depth of Rep voter anger, but in the general it looks to be a different story.  There's a reason that his margin over Hillary is only 1-2 points greater than Christie.

 on: November 23, 2015, 11:40:26 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by DougMacG
"WAPO 32% Trump and Carson 22%
    Fox  28% Trump and Carson 18%"

High floor, low ceiling.  He gained some strength because the terror and Syrian refugee issue fall right into his strength.  It also had great timing for Trump, coming the day after the news story of the so-called Iowa tirade.

The question for Trump is how to remove the low ceiling.  He needs maybe 51% to win in the general election.  To get that with any certainty he needs another 3-4 points of cushion.  He needs at least a minor electoral landslide to govern as a party outsider.  Obama 2008 won 53-46.  Reagan 1984 won 59-41.  Hillary is weaker than either of those losers; he needs to shoot for at least Obama 2008 type numbers.

But Trump has gotten to where he is with positions and an attitude that captivating for some while alienating the rest.  He is most certainly the nomination frontrunner, but there is no visible path the rest of the way up for him, the way most see it now.

ABC News, this favorability chart shows Trump at 38-59, 21 point underwater as of Nov 10.  A few points better now perhaps, since his poll numbers are up a bit, but really these are his numbers while things are going great in the nomination contest.  More striking than the 59% negative is that only 3% don't already have an opinion on him: (Carson has fallen since this poll.)

 on: November 23, 2015, 08:34:20 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by DDF
What is amazing to me is this:  If Jeb or Rubio had 35% of the people supporting either of them, the claims would be that the race is over. With Trump, the same people are trying to oust the Front Leader to foster people with 12% support. Go figure........

You're right. Some people like what Trump has to say, but stop short of being willing to get the job done, so they support others in the hope that it will sway other's opinions.

I'm all for Trump and thinnk he has a legitimate chance to win.

Even Hispanics that came legally aren't willing to give away their country. Imagine that.

 on: November 23, 2015, 05:41:14 PM 
Started by G M - Last post by ppulatie
Is this where I go to find good Thanksgiving recipes to cook?


 on: November 23, 2015, 05:29:38 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ppulatie
Online Polls have become much better in that past few years. But for the two most recent non-online media polls, both of which are anti Trump sources....clearly, he is gaining strength.

Sun Nov 23  -  WAPO 32% Trump and Carson 22%
                     Fox 28% Trump and Carson 18%

Nov 19        PPP (a democratic pollster) Trump 26 to Carson 19

But Trump is not the real issue. So answer this....

Why is 50% or more of the Party abandoning the professional politicians in the party and going for outsiders? Why do the people see a need to look elsewhere for someone to support? What is the Party missing out on that makes these people look elsewhere? 

These are the real questions that need to be answered by the GOPe. But the GOPe ignores the questions totally. Instead, the GOPe and their pundit supporters call those not following their lead "Vulgarians"?  And they ignore the causes of the desertion from the party.

There is a social divide in this country occurring now. It is breaking down along income, age and education. And it is reflected in this election on both sides.

Personally, I think that anyone who wants to be President beginning in 2017 is nuts. The coming implosion of the country is going to radically change the US. Who knows what the end result will be.

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