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 on: Today at 06:48:05 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by G M

 on: Today at 03:15:21 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by G M

 on: August 19, 2014, 08:42:35 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog 

 on: August 19, 2014, 08:18:36 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog

Data Watch
The Consumer Price Index Increased 0.1% in July To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 8/19/2014

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% in July, matching consensus expectations. The CPI is up 2.0% versus a year ago.
“Cash” inflation (which excludes the government’s estimate of what homeowners would charge themselves for rent) was unchanged in July and is up 1.8% in the past year.

Food prices increased 0.3% in July, while energy prices declined 0.3%. The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1%, below the consensus expected 0.2%. The gain in core prices was led by owners’ equivalent rent. Core prices are up 1.9% versus a year ago.

Real average hourly earnings – the cash earnings of all employees, adjusted for inflation – were unchanged in July and unchanged in the past year. Real weekly earnings are up 0.3% in the past year.

Implications: Consumer prices continued to move higher in July, though only at the tepid 0.1% pace the consensus expected. Although consumer prices are up a moderate 2% from a year ago, the year-over-year number masks an acceleration. The CPI is up at a 2.5% annual rate in the past six months and up at a 2.8% rate in the past three months. (!!!)  Since the start of 2014, consumer prices are up 2.4% at an annual rate versus the 1.2% pace in first seven months of 2013. Owners’ equivalent rent (what homeowners would pay if they were renting their homes from soemone else) led the way in July, up 0.3%, accounting for most of the increase in the overall index. Owners’ equivalent rent, which makes up about ¼ of the overall CPI, is up 2.7% over the past 12 months and will be a key source of the acceleration in inflation in the year ahead, in large part fueled by the shift toward renting rather than owning. And while energy prices declined 0.3% in July, muting the rise in the overall CPI, we expect this measure to move higher in the months ahead, continuing the trend higher we have seen over the past twelve months. The worst news in today’s report was that “real” (inflation-adjusted) average hourly earnings remained flat in July and are unchanged in the past year. Plugging today’s CPI data into our models suggests the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE deflator, probably increased 0.1% in July. If so, it would be up 1.6% from a year ago, barely below the Fed’s target of 2%. We expect to hit and cross the 2% target later this year, consistent with our view that the Fed starts raising short-term interest rates in the first half of 2015.

 on: August 19, 2014, 08:16:19 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
Housing Starts Surged 15.7% in July To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 8/19/2014

Housing starts surged 15.7% in July to a 1.093 million annual rate, coming in well above the consensus expected 0.965 million. Starts are up 21.7% versus a year ago.
The increase in starts in July was due to strong gains in both single-family and multi-family units. In the past year, single-family starts are up 10.1% while multi-family starts are up 44.7%.
Starts in July rose in the Northeast, South, and West, but fell in the Midwest.
New building permits increased 8.1% in July to a 1.052 million annual rate, coming in above the consensus expected 1.000 million. Compared to a year ago, permits for single-units are up 3.9% while permits for multi-family homes are up 14.1%.

Implications: Great news on home building. Housing starts boomed in July, soaring 15.7%, and were revised up substantially for June. The upward trend should continue. Building permits also soared in July, up 8.1%, as single-family and multi-family permits rose 0.9% and 21.5% respectively. Starts can be volatile from month to month, so to find the underlying trend we look at the 12-month moving average, which now stands at the highest level since October 2008. The total number of homes under construction, (started, but not yet finished) increased 2.9% in July and are up 22.8% versus a year ago. No wonder residential construction jobs are up 116,000 in the past year. Multi-family construction is taking the clear lead in the housing recovery. Single-family starts have been in a tight range for the past two years, while the trend in multi-family units has been up (although volatile). In the past year, 35% of all housing starts have been for multi-unit buildings, the most since the mid-1980s, when the last wave of Baby Boomers was leaving college. From a direct GDP perspective, the construction of multi-family homes adds less, per unit, to the economy than single-family homes. However, home building is still a positive for real GDP growth and we expect that trend to continue. Based on population growth and “scrappage,” housing starts will eventually rise to about 1.5 million units per year. In other recent housing news, the NAHB index, which measures confidence among home builders, rose two points to 55 in August, the best reading since January. Looks like a broad pick-up in both sales and foot traffic around the country.

 on: August 19, 2014, 05:56:18 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by G M

 on: August 19, 2014, 12:20:06 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by G M

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 on: August 19, 2014, 11:55:10 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by DougMacG
Anyone heard anything on the autopsy of  the US ambassador to Libya?

Was he as valuable as this guy?

Maybe we can send Eric Holder there to get at the "truth".  And interrupt a golf trip to announce it.

I have long complained that equal protection under the law has no meaning with this group of ruling bullies or to anyone else on their side of the aisle.  They don't even have equal curiosity.

 on: August 19, 2014, 11:49:41 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by G M
Anyone heard anything on the autopsy of  the US ambassador to Libya?

 on: August 19, 2014, 11:35:53 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by DougMacG
Strange, strange story.  Proves me right on one thing.  Look away from these breaking stories, unless there is something you can do to help, until the facts begin to come in.

More than a dozen witnesses - plus three autopsies - corroborate the police story (that I never heard in the media).  He was coming toward the officer.

But what was the uproar about?  Too many black getting shot by whites?  Really?  The odds are 15-fold higher in the other direction.  In fact, the fear of a black being shot is to be shot by another black.  That is tragic.

Did "protesters" really believe he was gunned down in broad daylight for no reason?  Did the officer have a history of that?  Did the police department have a history of that?  No.  But if that is what he had done, the man isn't any more dead the last 40 to be gunned down in Chicago.  But this one rose high in the news.  Partly because the news ran it wrong.  And partly because the protests are planned and orchestrated, not spontaneous.

One might ask, as I have done in the "America's Inner City" thread, what else is going wrong in these neighborhoods and with these people that is keeping them out of productive activities and responsibilities.  Comments?

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