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 51 
 on: December 08, 2017, 11:54:16 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
Don't Fear Higher Interest Rates To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 12/4/2017

The Federal Reserve has a problem. At 4.1%, the jobless rate is already well below the 4.6% it thinks unemployment would/could/should average over the long run. We think the unemployment rate should get to 3.5% by the end of 2019 and wouldn't be shocked if it got that low in 2018, either.

Add in extra economic growth from tax cuts and the Fed will be worried that it is "behind the curve." As a result, we think the Fed will raise rates three times next year, on top of this year's three rate hikes, counting the almost certain hike this month. And a fourth rate hike in 2018 is still certainly on the table. By contrast, the futures market is only pricing in one or two rate hikes next year – exactly as it did for 2017. In other words, the futures markets are likely to be wrong for the second year in a row.

And as short-term interest rates head higher, we expect long-term interest rates to head up as well. So, get ready, because the bears will seize on this rising rate environment as one more reason for the bull market in stocks to end.

They'll be wrong again. The bull market, and the US economy, have further to run. Rising rates won't kill the recovery or bull market anytime in the near future.

Higher interest rates reflect a higher after-tax return to capital, a natural result of cutting taxes on corporate investment via a lower tax rate on corporate profits as well as shifting to full expensing of equipment and away from depreciation for tax purposes.

Lower taxes on capital means business will more aggressively pursue investment opportunities, helping boost economic growth and the demand for labor – leading to more jobs and higher wages. Stronger growth means higher rates.

For a recent example of why higher rates don't mean the end of the bull market in stocks look no further than 2013. Economic growth accelerated that year, with real GDP growing 2.7% versus 1.3% the year before. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note jumped to 3.04% from 1.78%. And during that year the S&P 500 jumped 29.6%, the best calendar year performance since 1997.

This was not a fluke. The 10-year yield rose in 2003 and 2006, by 44 and 32 basis points, respectively. How did the S&P 500 do those years: up 26.4% in 2003, up 13.8% in 2006.

Sure, in theory, if interest rates climb to reflect the risk of rising inflation, without any corresponding increase in real GDP growth, then higher interest rates would not be a good sign for equities. That'd be like the late 1960s through the early 1980s. But with Congress and the president likely to soon agree to major pro-growth changes in the tax code on top of an ongoing shift toward deregulation, we think the growth trend is positive, not negative.

It's also true that interest on the national debt will rise as well. But federal interest costs relative to both GDP and tax revenue are still hovering near the lowest levels of the past fifty years. As we've argued, sensible debt financing that locks in today's low rates would be prudent. However, it will take many years for higher interest rates to lift the cost of borrowing needed to finance the government back to the levels we saw for much of the 1980s and 1990s. And as we all remember the 80s and 90s were not bad for stocks.

Bottom line: interest rates across the yield curve are headed higher. But, for stocks, it's just another wall of worry not a signal that the bull market is anywhere near an end.

 52 
 on: December 08, 2017, 11:53:10 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
Highlights

    Long-term political and economic factors in Mexico have created fertile ground for a populist presidential candidate such as Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
    Lopez Obrador's rise as a leading candidate in 2018 has been spurred by the decadeslong diversification of Mexico's political system, deep-seated economic grievances and more recent events in U.S.-Mexican relations.
    Even if Lopez Obrador loses next year's election, Mexico's political system is becoming more competitive and the results of future elections will be more uncertain.

Mexico's gradual move toward populism has made headlines for more than a year. The foreign press in particular has reported extensively on the popularity of presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, creating a narrative of a recent, inexorable leftward shift among Mexican voters. The underlying reality is far more complicated. Lopez Obrador's popular approval is the product of Mexico's enduring, widespread poverty and steadily diversifying political landscape, among other broader, longer-term trends. It's also the result of prevailing, discrete events, such as the Mexican government's perceived complacency when faced with U.S. threats during talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. These dynamics will likely create a competitive presidential election in 2018, in which Lopez Obrador or a challenger from a traditional party such as the National Action Party (PAN) or the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) could narrowly clinch power. In keeping with recent history, however, whoever wins next year's election will enter office relatively weak and will struggle to implement populist policies, especially if Congress and the country's economic elites disagree with them.

A Slow Change Coming

Lopez Obrador's populist message clearly resonates with a political minority in Mexico. According to recent polls, nearly a third of Mexican voters would be willing to vote for him in July 2018. This receptiveness to populism is not a recent trend, however; it even predates Lopez Obrador's previous presidential runs in 2006 and 2012. The PRI, for example, was far more populist when it emerged in the 1920s after the Mexican revolution than it is now under President Enrique Pena Nieto. Historically, poverty and corruption have created fertile ground for populist political messages, but in recent decades, as Mexico became more economically intertwined with the United States, political leaders' enthusiasm for populism waned and the country's political parties began to favor business-friendly technocrats for president. For two decades, presidential leadership in Mexico has been primarily about keeping the status quo in domestic politics and foreign affairs, particularly in international trade.

 53 
 on: December 08, 2017, 11:52:41 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
Highlights

    Long-term political and economic factors in Mexico have created fertile ground for a populist presidential candidate such as Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
    Lopez Obrador's rise as a leading candidate in 2018 has been spurred by the decadeslong diversification of Mexico's political system, deep-seated economic grievances and more recent events in U.S.-Mexican relations.
    Even if Lopez Obrador loses next year's election, Mexico's political system is becoming more competitive and the results of future elections will be more uncertain.

Mexico's gradual move toward populism has made headlines for more than a year. The foreign press in particular has reported extensively on the popularity of presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, creating a narrative of a recent, inexorable leftward shift among Mexican voters. The underlying reality is far more complicated. Lopez Obrador's popular approval is the product of Mexico's enduring, widespread poverty and steadily diversifying political landscape, among other broader, longer-term trends. It's also the result of prevailing, discrete events, such as the Mexican government's perceived complacency when faced with U.S. threats during talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. These dynamics will likely create a competitive presidential election in 2018, in which Lopez Obrador or a challenger from a traditional party such as the National Action Party (PAN) or the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) could narrowly clinch power. In keeping with recent history, however, whoever wins next year's election will enter office relatively weak and will struggle to implement populist policies, especially if Congress and the country's economic elites disagree with them.

A Slow Change Coming

Lopez Obrador's populist message clearly resonates with a political minority in Mexico. According to recent polls, nearly a third of Mexican voters would be willing to vote for him in July 2018. This receptiveness to populism is not a recent trend, however; it even predates Lopez Obrador's previous presidential runs in 2006 and 2012. The PRI, for example, was far more populist when it emerged in the 1920s after the Mexican revolution than it is now under President Enrique Pena Nieto. Historically, poverty and corruption have created fertile ground for populist political messages, but in recent decades, as Mexico became more economically intertwined with the United States, political leaders' enthusiasm for populism waned and the country's political parties began to favor business-friendly technocrats for president. For two decades, presidential leadership in Mexico has been primarily about keeping the status quo in domestic politics and foreign affairs, particularly in international trade.

 54 
 on: December 08, 2017, 11:48:38 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
Fun speech tonight in Pensacola

 55 
 on: December 08, 2017, 11:48:11 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
https://patriotpost.us/humor/52716

 56 
 on: December 08, 2017, 08:43:07 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ya
Paki humor from ZH. They think they are a superpower, same air marshall said pakis will land on the moon in 2 years.

Pakistan Air Force Ordered To Shoot Down US Military Drones
Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Dec 8, 2017 7:35 PM

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has just been ordered to shoot down any foreign drones that violate the country’s airspace including attack drones operated by the United States, Chief Marshal Sohail Aman said on Thursday.
The announcement is a complete change from the air force’s previous view, of which foreign drone strikes on its soil were condemned but the air force never threatened to shoot them out of the sky. “We will not allow anyone to violate our airspace. I have ordered PAF to shoot down drones, including those of the US, if they enter our airspace, violating the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Air Chief Marshal Sohail Aman told an audience in Islamabad.

The statement was made about two weeks after a US drone strike targeted a militant compound in Pakistan’s tribal region along the border of Afghanistan, leading to multiple casualities, The Times of India reported.

This is the first time, the Pakistani government has taken a hard stance against foreign drones, especially the ones operated by US forces based in Afghanistan. The comment from Aman was shocking despite the US has been launching missiles into Pakistan and violating the country’s sovereignty since about 2004. The CIA was responsible for most US drone strikes in Pakistan until November 30, 2017, said The Times of India.

It’s believed, senior members of terrorist groups have been killed over the years in drone strikes, but it has come at a cost of “hundreds of civilian” deaths in the form of collateral damage.

After every drone strike, the Pakistan foreign office issues a condemnatory statement claiming that it will not allow such strikes on its territory.

 Hundreds of civilians, according to media reports, including women and children, as well as many senior members of terrorist groups have perished in these attacks. The status of many more people remains unknow
There has been no official response from the White House concerning this radical shift of how the ‘war on terror’ just got a little more complex over the skies of Pakistan.


 57 
 on: December 08, 2017, 07:34:48 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ccp

Remember from DAY ONE  when Newt Gingrich heard about the lawyers Mueller was hiring he said stop it now - shut it down and Trump should do it.   ( I don't know how he would get away with it though)

It must be great to be a BIG DC lawyer .  Just think of their high fees and how self serving keeping this  investigation open is not only for political reasons  but (by finding anything and everything they can dream of)   to keep this thing going.

BTW, why are not their  fees public ?  Think of the publicity they get as well to  pad  their  CV .  Most are or will be  Dem Party darlings  .


 58 
 on: December 08, 2017, 06:52:58 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by G M
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/372883.php

December 08, 2017
OMG: Another Member of Mueller's Deep State All-Stars Defended the Hillary IT Aide Who Destroyed Her Blackberries (Federal Evidence) with a Hammer
Shut. It. Down.

From NiceDeb:

Aaron Zebley served previously as Mueller’s chief of staff at the FBI and as a senior counselor in the National Security Division at the Department of Justice. He also served as an assistant U.S. attorney in the National Security and Terrorism Unit in Alexandria, Virginia.
He is often referred to in the media as Mueller's "right-hand man."

Also, in 2015 when he was a lawyer, he represented Justin Cooper, the IT staffer who personally set up Hillary Clinton's unsecure server in her Chappaqua home, Fox News' Tucker Carlson revealed on his show Thursday.

Cooper, it so happens, is also the aide who destroyed Clinton's old BlackBerries with a hammer.

Documents obtained by Fox News show that Senate investigators grew frustrated with Zebley after being repeatedly stonewalled when they were trying to set up a meeting with Cooper.

 
Jordan Schachtel

@JordanSchachtel
Updated partial list of partisans on Team Mueller:
-An attorney for Ben Rhodes.
-Attendee of Hillary's election night party
-Guy who cleared Hillary of wrongdoing+texted anti-Trump bias.
-Man who helped Hillary cover up evidence by smashing her Blackberry to pieces
Shut It Down?
12:29 PM - Dec 8, 2017
 29 29 Replies   247 247 Retweets   353 353 likes
Twitter Ads info and privacy


That tweet says, at the end, "the man who helped Hillary cover up evidence by smashing her Blackberry to pieces." That's not accurate -- it's the lawyer for the guy who smashed the Blackberries to pieces.

But you get the point.

In related news, the LAPD has assigned the former members of OJ Simpon's legal team to finally find "The Real Killer."

Makes as much sense as hiring Hillary's Valkyries to investigate Trump.

 59 
 on: December 08, 2017, 04:38:47 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by G M
That particular behavior (sh*tting in the showers) does not constitute assimilating into civilized society?

When the Republican convention goes into a Democratic city, when a college team goes into a rival college's facility, don't they tell you that bad behavior of one or a few will reflect badly on all of us?

It's the majority of muslims that ruin it for all the rest.

 60 
 on: December 08, 2017, 03:04:40 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
https://www.thedailybeast.com/were-the-cuban-sonic-attack-victims-actually-poisoned

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