on: June 24, 2016, 01:48:28 PM
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by objectivist1
Brexit Vote Passes! Here's How Alt-Market Called It When No One Else Did
Friday, 24 June 2016 00:41 Brandon Smith
Yes, in case you fell asleep before the votes were tallied, the UK referendum has passed and global markets are currently in a freefall we have not seen since 2008. In this case, I'm going to have to trumpet my successful call here. For all the general flak I received in emails for my predictions of a Brexit passage including in my article 'Brexit: Global Trigger Event, Fake Out Or Something Else' which was published during the height of the polling disinformation frenzy, I think it is important to explain how I was able to discern how the vote was likely to turn out when no one else did.
Also, if there were other analysts that did predict a Brexit win and I am overlooking them, please list their names and where they made those predictions in the comments below so that we can give them their due credit.
Here's why the vast majority of analysts were caught with their pants down on the UK referendum:
1) They assumed that the Brexit will hurt globalists - In the article linked above, I outlined why the Brexit actually aids international financiers and central banks by creating a scapegoat for a market crash that was ALREADY going to happen. Rather than re-explaining my position, here is a large portion of quotations from that article:
I believe the Brexit vote may be allowed to succeed, here’s why…
1) Elites including George Soros have suddenly decided to dive into the market to place bets on the negative side. Dumping large portions of their stock holdings, shorting equities and buying up gold and gold mining shares. Soros has been preparing his portfolio for a successful Brexit vote while at the same time publicly warning of the supposed dire consequences if the referendum passes. The last time Soros put this much capital into the markets was in 2007, just before the crash of 2008.
2) The IMF and the BIS have been warning since late 2015 (for six to eight months) that a global economic downturn is on the way in 2016. We saw considerable volatility at the beginning of this year, and markets are due for another shock. The last time the BIS and IMF were so adamant about an impending crash was in late 2007, just before the 2008 market plunge.
3) While the Federal Reserve has not yet implemented a second rate hike (I still believe they could use a rate hike this year to stab markets in the back if necessary), Janet Yellen pulled a maneuver which was almost as upsetting to investors. After the Fed policy meeting last week, markets were moderately exuberant and stocks were rising, then, Yellen opened her mouth and blamed the Brexit for the rate hike delay…
Here is what the Fed has done: By delaying the second hike for another month, and then blaming the Brexit vote as a primary reason, they have created a bit of a paradox. If the Brexit vote passes, the Fed is asserting that they may not hike rates for a while, giving market investors the impression that the global economic recovery is not all that it is cracked up to be. If the Brexit vote fails, then the Fed MUST hike rates in July, otherwise, they lose all credibility. I believe Yellen’s claim that the Brexit vote was the cause of the hike delay was highly deliberate. It has triggered what may become a growing firestorm in equities and commodities.
From the point of view of investors, if the Brexit passes, then all hell breaks loose. If the Brexit fails, then the Fed will hike rates and once again, all hell breaks loose. Or, the Fed refuses to hike rates even though its number one scapegoat is out of the picture, it loses all credibility, and all hell breaks loose.
It’s a lose/lose/lose scenario for the investment world, which is probably why global markets plunged after Yellen’s remarks. Investors have been relying on the predictability of central bank intervention for so long that now when ANY uncertainty arises, they run for the hedges.
The Fed decision to blame the Brexit for their rate hike delay could indicate foreknowledge of a successful Brexit vote.
4) The recent murder of British lawmaker Jo Cox is perhaps the weirdest piece in the puzzle of the Brexit. For one thing, it makes no sense for a pro-Brexit nationalist (Thomas Mair) to attack and kill a pro-EU lawmaker when the polls for the “Leave” group were clearly ahead. One could simply argue that the guy was nuts, but I’m rather suspicious of “lone gunman,” and his insanity has yet to be proven. I see no reason for this man, insane or not, to be angry enough to kill while the Brexit side was winning in all the polls.
If someone was using him as a weapon only to discredit the Brexit vote or sway the public towards staying in the EU, you would think that they would have initiated the murder closer to the day of the referendum when it would have the most effect. The information flooded public has days to digest new data and forget Jo Cox.
My theory? Thomas Mair has handlers or he is just a mentally disturbed patsy, and his purpose is indeed to paint the Brexit movement as “angry” or crazy. But this does not necessarily mean the intent behind the assassination of Jo Cox was to break the back of the Brexit movement. Rather, the goal may only be to perpetuate a longer term narrative that conservatives in general are a destructive element of society. We kill, we’re racists, we have an archaic mindset that prevents “progress,” we divide supranational unions, we even destroy global economies. We’re storybook monsters.
Even the cultural Marxists at the Southern Poverty Law Center somehow produced documents allegedly linking Mair (a veritable unknown) to Neo-Nazi groups in 1999. Wherever the SPLC is involved, the official story is always skewed.
The murder of Jo Cox has had a minimal effect on Brexit polling numbers. In the end, the elites may find Thomas Mair more useful as a mascot for the Brexit AFTER the vote, rather than before the vote.
So now the Brexit movement, which is conservative in spirit, is labeled a “divisive” and “hateful group”, and if the referendum is triumphant, they will also be called economic saboteurs.
I thoroughly agree that the internationalists do not usually allow economic developments of a global nature to occur if those events are damaging to their base of power. The problem is, Brexit is not damaging to their base of power in the long run. In fact, the elites are aided by the Brexit because now they have British pro-sovereigns and the principle of sovereignty itself to blame for a market crash that they have actually been engineering for years.
2) They Believed The Polling Numbers - I take polling numbers into account at times but they are ultimately meaningless when you are dealing with global economic events. As I point out above, such events are thoroughly played by internationalists. What people should have been looking at instead of skewed polling numbers was the behavior of elites prior to the vote. George Soros' latest market bets were clearly on a crash (I'm sure he just raked in a handsome profit), and central bankers from around the world congregated at the Bank for International Settlements in preparation for the vote. Janet Yellen blaming the Brexit for the Fed's refusal to raise rates in June should have been a red flag for everyone. When in doubt, always look at what the elites are doing with policy and their own money.
3) They Have Grown Cynical - After eight years of constant market manipulation, the Liberty Movement in particular has grown rather cynical about whether or not the fundamentals even matter anymore. I'm here to tell you, they do matter. However, stocks today are not based on fundamentals, they are based on dubious investor psychology and algo-trading computers. When investor psychology is broken, the markets are suddenly reminded of the terrible fundamentals of our economic system and stocks begin to crash. Eventually, fundamentals will win over false financial optimism. The international banks are well aware of this, and are merely allowing circumstances by which they can crash the markets THEIR WAY instead of allowing the markets to crash naturally. Too many analysts overlooked the usefulness of Brexit to the elites because of their crippling cynicism.
4) They Missed The Bigger Picture - If all an analyst does is track equities and sometimes commodities, they are never going to grasp what is happening in the economy. Our financial system is not based entirely on numbers and graphs; it is a sociopolitical apparatus. Political and social developments can indeed signal what might happen in stocks and on mainstreet. The relations are there, but they are often indirect. In 2016, EVERYTHING is snowballing with tension. It was only a matter of time before something snapped. The timing of the Brexit amidst these tensions led me to believe it had a high probability of being a trigger for the next leg down.
So, the big question now is what happens as the circus continues? I will be writing a comprehensive article on what is likely to occur over the next few months in markets and everywhere else in response to the Brexit event. Look for that article to be published early next week. I do believe that central banks around the world are probably going to take action at some point in the near term to mitigate the market collapse and slow it down slightly. As I have always said, this is a CONTROLLED DEMOLITION of the global economy; the elites want to steam valve the system down and are probably not going to allow a complete freefall.
You will most likely see a mainstream media campaign to marginalize the importance of the Brexit. They will claim that the referendum is not necessarily binding yet. That it will take years to be instituted. Frankly, this is not relevant. Again, the markets are based on psychology first, and the damage has already been done. Watch for further market disruptions to pile on before the U.S. elections, including other EU member states suggesting their own referendums.
Stay tuned to Alt-Market for further analysis...
Brandon Smith, Founder of Alt-Market.com
on: June 24, 2016, 12:35:50 PM
Started by Quijote - Last post by objectivist1
How Brexit Will Change America and the World
Britain is free of global government. America can be next.
June 24, 2016
Daniel Greenfield, a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the Freedom Center, is a New York writer focusing on radical Islam.
Yesterday the British people stood up for their freedom. Today the world is a different place.
Celebrities and politicians swarmed television studios to plead with voters to stay in the EU. Anyone who wanted to leave was a fascist. Economists warned of total collapse if Britain left the European Union. Alarmist broadcasts threatened that every family would lose thousands of pounds a year if Brexit won.
Even Obama came out to warn Brits of the economic consequences of leaving behind the EU.
Every propaganda gimmick was rolled out. Brexit was dismissed, mocked and ridiculed. It was for lunatics and madmen. Anyone who voted to leave the benevolent bosom of the European Union was an ignorant xenophobe who had no place in the modern world. And that turned out to be most of Britain.
While Londonistan, that post-British city of high financial stakes and low Muslim mobs, voted by a landslide to remain, a decisive majority of the English voted to wave goodbye to the EU. 67% of Tower Hamlets, the Islamic stronghold, voted to stay in the EU. But to no avail. The will of the people prevailed.
And the people did not want migrant rape mobs in their streets and Muslim massacres in their pubs. They were tired of Afghani migrants living in posh homes with their four wives while they worked hard and sick of seeing their daughters passed around by “Asian” cabbies from Pakistan in ways utterly indistinguishable from the ISIS slave trade while the police looked the other way so as not to appear racist. And, most of all, they were sick of the entire Eurocratic establishment that let it all happen.
British voters chose freedom. They decided to reclaim their destiny and their nation from the likes of Count Herman Von Rompuy, the former President of the European Council, selected at an “informal” meeting who has opposed direct elections for his job and insisted that, “the word of the future is union.”
When Nigel Farage of UKIP told Count Von Rompuy that “I can speak on behalf of the majority of British people in saying that we don't know you, we don't want you and the sooner you are put out to grass, the better,” he was fined for it by the Bureau of the European Parliament after refusing to apologize. But now it’s Farage and the Independence Party who have had the last laugh.
The majority of British people didn’t want Count Von Rompuy and his million-dollar pension, or Donald Tusk, Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and the rest of the monkeys squatting on Britain’s back.
Count Von Rompuy has lost his British provinces. And the British people have their nation back.
The word of the future isn’t “union.” It’s “freedom.” A process has begun that will not end in Britain. It will spread around the world liberating nations from multinational institutions.
During Obama’s first year in office, Count Von Rompuy grandly declared that “2009 is also the first year of global governance.” Like many such predictions, it proved to be dangerously wrong. And now it may just well be that 2016 will be the first year of the decline and fall of global governance.
An anti-establishment wind is blowing through the creaky house of global government. The peoples of the free world have seen how the choking mass of multilateral institutions failed them economically and politically. Global government is an expensive and totalitarian proposition that silences free speech and funnels rapists from Syria, Sudan and Afghanistan to the streets of European cities and American towns. It’s a boon for professional consultants, certain financial insiders and politicians who can hop around unelected offices and retire with vast unearned pensions while their constituents are told to work another decade. But global government is misery and malaise for everyone else.
The campaign to stay in the EU relied on fear and alarmism, on claims of bigotry and disdain for the working class voters who fought and won the right to decide their own destiny. But the campaign for independence asked Britons to believe in their own potential when unchained from the Eurocratic bureaucracy. And now Brexit will become a model for liberation campaigns across Europe.
And it will not end there.
Brexit showed that it is possible for a great nation to defy its leaders and its establishment thinkers to throw off its multinational chains. And while the European Union is one of the biggest prisons forged by global government, it is far from the only one. America and Britain are sleeping giants covered in the cold iron links of multinational organizations that limit their strength and their potential.
It is time to break those chains.
Americans who want to cut their ties with the United Nations have found Brexit inspiring. Leaving the UK was once also seen as a ridiculous idea at the margins that could never be taken seriously. Serious politicians refused to listen to it. Serious thinkers refused to discuss it. And then it gathered speed.
There is growing opposition even among Democrats to treaties like the TPP. Trump has challenged NAFTA. Americans across the political spectrum are suspicious of economic treaties and organizations. Support for Brexit came from Labour areas in the UK. Support for Trump’s challenge to multinational treaties and alliances could very well come from unexpected places, like Bernie Sanders backers.
Brexit has shown us the weakness of the multinational establishment. Its vast bureaucratic power rests on using the media to suppress political dissent. When the media’s special pleading fails to stop the democratic process, it is more helpless than any dictator when the outraged mob pours into his palace.
What was true of Britain, is also true of America. Our elites are just as impotent. The power they have illegally seized is defended zealously by a media palace guard that spends every minute of every day lecturing, hectoring and messaging Americans. But when no one listens to the media, then the men and women who run our lives, who feed off us like a colony of parasitic insects, are helpless.
Their power is purely persuasive. When we stop listening, then we are free.
That is the lesson of Brexit. It is the future.
The future is not a vast behemoth of global government that swallows up nations and individuals, that reduces democratic elections to a joke and eliminates freedom of speech, but the individual. The elites have gambled everything on big government, big media and big data. But all of those lost to Brexit.
They lost to Brexit in the UK. They can lose in the US too. And they will lose.
The power of the establishment is illusory. Like the naked emperor, it depends on no one challenging it. The harder it is challenged, the harder it will fall. Brexit was an impossible dream. Then it was reality.
Our impossible dreams, the policies that conservatives are told by the establishment are not even worth talking about, can be just as real as Brexit.
If we are willing to fight for them.