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 on: October 08, 2015, 12:18:12 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ppulatie
BBG, interesting article.

Some observations from my own city....and also a comment on DC.

My nephew is in a high position with Metro DC police. They have a problem where in the really black and poor areas, crime is extensive. When murders occur, the people in the area will not cooperate with the police to solve the crime. It reached such a point that the cops told the residents that when major crimes occurred, they would come in and do a basic investigation but the people were otherwise on their own. They also told them that the crimes must stay in that area and if the perps committed crimes in other parts of the city, then the cops would come in and all hell would break out.

Today, DC has a huge problem with the Top Cops. They have created such an adversarial relationship with the beat cops and that they have "restricted" real enforcement standards to such a degree, crime has worsened even more. It is so bad that cops are leaving with just a handful of years left to retirement.

Now, to my city.......with the housing downturn, we suffered greatly. Cops leaving the force were not replaced, so for a city of 100k, we were down to 85 sworn officers, when 120 plus were authorized. Now, my comments about this in blue....

Police Patrol Style (from best to worse)

Beat cops on foot, evidence of commitment of the department to send immediate backup and of community support.
There are not enough cops to put them on foot. Plus in the dangerous areas, beat cops are unable to respond quickly.

Beat cops parked, evidence of community support, but lack of faith in backup.
This is an absurd conclusion. Beat cops parked are likely doing paperwork, or taking a short break. Often they are parked in staging areas waiting for additional cops so as to respond together to an incident. Smart cops do not respond alone.

Single officer patrolling in a cruiser, indication that policing patterns revolve around intelligence gathering, suggestive of ongoing crime.
Absurd again. They patrol in cars for quick response to incidents.

Single officers patrolling with flashers lit up, which is an attempt to seem more committed than they are in the face of spiraling crime.
Patrol with flashers lit? I haven't seen that.

Paired officers patrolling in the same cruiser for defensive purposes, which mean it has gotten so bad that the cops could care less about you, and have been briefed to protect themselves first and foremost.
Another absurd comment. Yes, there is concern for themselves, but this is not about not caring for the people they protect. This is about responding to incidents with enough "force" to ensure both safety and ability to solve the problem, especially domestic incident.

No visible police coverage, indicating that the police are busy elsewhere, and that this is known by opportunistic criminals, which would be 100% of the criminal population. An alternative, and even more ominous reading of this, is that the police are afraid to enter this area!
Agree with the first part. Cops are busy elsewhere.  Second argument........b.s.

In my city, crime was rampant caused by one part of the city. 3% of the population lived in one area (almost projects type) and caused over 65% of the crime. When major incidents occurred, due to lack of staffing, all units in the city would respond. Then, the next city over would cover other priority 2 and 3 calls. Priority 1 calls were put off until units couls respond, often taking a couple of hours or more. This continued for several years.

In 2014, the cops changed their practice with new hires coming on. The bad area now found cops patrolling all the time, no matter what other incidents were occurring. They would pull over anything suspicious and engaged in very aggressive profiling. Since then, crime and murders are down considerably because the bad elements were taken off the streets due to increased manpower.

Everything is situational....

 on: October 08, 2015, 12:11:57 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ccp
BTW Doug Schoen who I like (for a Democrat) says the Republican turmoil is good for Hillary.  I say don't be so sure in the long run.

 on: October 08, 2015, 12:09:41 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ccp
I am posting here.  Received in my email today.  I admit I have not yet read it, but I am sure it is pro growth:

 on: October 08, 2015, 12:06:12 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ccp
"McCarthy just dropped out of the Speaker position race"


 on: October 08, 2015, 11:43:59 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Body-by-Guinness
Don't see much empiric data in this piece, but it does reflect some of my observations, particularly when I have to contend with trips to DC or Baltimore. Note how the War on Drugs is the gift that keep on giving:

 on: October 08, 2015, 11:34:40 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ppulatie
McCarthy just dropped out of the Speaker position race.  (Of course, he was an idiot anyway with his statement about the Bengazi Committee.)

There is a true insurgency going on inside and outside the GOPe. Between the House Freedom Caucus and the Trump/Carson insurgency, the GOPe is in turmoil and doesn't know which way to turn.

 on: October 07, 2015, 11:44:21 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog

 on: October 07, 2015, 11:11:55 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog

 on: October 07, 2015, 11:09:14 PM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by DougMacG
Ted Cruz receives very favorable coverage today from my new favorite political reporter Eliana Johnson.

The Texas senator may look like an also-ran, but he’s a legit contender. Where’s Ted Cruz? The outspoken Texas senator has been unusually quiet in recent weeks. But in GOP circles, there’s soft but growing chatter that he is likely to be one of the last men standing in one of the most chaotic and unpredictable presidential races in recent memory. You wouldn’t know it from his poll numbers. Cruz is running at about 6 percent nationally and in key states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. That’s well behind outsiders Donald Trump, Carly Fiorina, and Ben Carson, and those numbers accord with the attitude that many influential Republicans have taken toward him since his arrival in Washington three years ago: There’s no way he can win the nomination. He’s too conservative and doctrinaire, and his abrasiveness doesn’t help the cause. Given his poll numbers and his

s is the man, after all, who, according to one of his allies, began meeting with Iowa activists to plot his path to victory in the state in August of 2013, just nine months after he was elected to the Senate. Is it possible that he’ll sneak up on the Republican establishment again, just as he did in his 2012 Senate race?  Within Republican circles, attitudes about his viability have begun to change. Even strategists associated with some of Cruz’s rivals acknowledge that, in a historically crowded field, he may be one of the last men standing. “He’s got a long way to go, but unlike some of these guys, he has a coherent strategy, he has a lot of money, he has a pretty consistent message, and he’s not making mistakes,” says a top Republican strategist allied with Florida senator Marco Rubio. “He’s running a good campaign.” RELATED: The Paradox of Ted Cruz With strong support in Iowa and South Carolina, Cruz has a path through the early states; both his campaign and his super PAC are flush with cash; and he’s a skilled politician who doesn’t slip up much on the campaign trail or in debates. But unlike Cruz himself, his strategy is not head-turning but simple, steady, even creeping. “He’s not readily considered a first-tier candidate, but if you look at the critical ways to evaluate whether a candidate is strong or not, he should be a first-tier candidate,” says GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak. By all accounts, Cruz is positioned to succeed in Iowa, which has been friendly to conservative candidates in years past. The Real Clear Politics polling average has him tied for third place with Carly Fiorina, and he has a solid ground game in place. “Our trajectory has been slow and steady upward,” says Bryan English, Cruz’s political director in the state. “I’ve just been kind of curious, okay, when are people going to start paying attention to what we’re doing and that we’re positioned to do very well in Iowa.” RELATED: How Ted Cruz Has Wooed Some of the GOP’s Top Donors The campaign has been getting in position for a long time. Steve Deace, an Iowa-based talk-radio host who has endorsed Cruz, says that as far back as August of 2013, Cruz was asking him to set up meetings with top Iowa activists. Now, Deace says, the Texas senator has “the best [Iowa] organization I’ve ever seen,” composed of the sort of dedicated activists who put Rick Santorum over the finish line four years ago. Cruz also has a plan beyond Iowa. He has referred to the March 1 “SEC primary,” in which eight Southern states go to the polls, as his “firewall”: that is, a backstop against whatever losses he might sustain beforehand. This year, these Southern states will go to the polls before Florida and before the traditional Super Tuesday, a change in the primary calendar instituted by RNC chairman Reince Priebus. Most of those contests, unlike the ones that precede them, are not winner-take-all, and Cruz’s goal is to win the most delegates rather than to take entire states.

Throughout the primary season, Cruz has crisscrossed the South, sweet-talking voters unaccustomed to playing an outsized role in presidential contests. “He has made the largest investment in those Southern states of any candidate,” Mackowiak says. “Most of those political leaders in those states have never been asked to participate in the process.” Texas is one of the “SEC primary” states, and it alone will award 155 of the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination. Cruz, of course, holds a natural advantage. His team spent over a year developing detailed knowledge of the state’s political contours just three years ago. Mackowiak says there’s a “very real possibility” that Cruz will be the overall delegate leader on March 2. Mackowiak says there’s a ‘very real possibility’ that Cruz will be the overall delegate leader on March 2. It’s not uncommon for “insurgent” candidates to take a number of early states, but they then typically have to rapidly raise the cash and build the big infrastructure needed to turn out voters across the country. Rick Santorum’s campaign was starved for money until he won the Iowa caucuses in 2012, after which it had trouble turning a sudden influx of cash into a viable campaign organization overnight. In 2008, in the months before the Iowa caucuses, Mike Huckabee had no national finance chairman or speechwriters, and he didn’t have enough money to commission any internal polls. Cruz is a different sort of insurgent, who has from the first days of the 2016 primary made it clear that he won’t be outpaced financially. Small-dollar donors from an enormous e-mail list culled during the fight over the 2013 government shutdown have made him the leader in hard-dollar donations, and a cadre of eccentric billionaires looking to shake up Republican presidential politics have put over $37 million into his super PACs. He has used that money to build a national organization: As he told a gathering of donors in August assembled at the behest of Charles and David Koch, “If you are going to run a national campaign, you’ve got to be able to compete nationally.”

A year ago, most political onlookers assumed that Cruz and his tea-party colleague Rand Paul would vie for the insurgent crown. A top Republican who’s not aligned with either campaign told me at the time that Cruz and Paul would battle to the death. They were, he said, like “like Harry Potter and Lord Voldemort: One cannot exist while the other lives.” As it turns out, it hasn’t been much of a contest. Cruz has proved to be an ambitious and serious campaigner, devoted to doing the hard and unglamorous work required of presidential candidates, while Paul has not, and other candidates have risen to compete with Cruz in the anti-establishment bracket. Cruz has proved to be an ambitious and serious campaigner, devoted to doing the hard and unglamorous work required of presidential candidates. The natural question is why a candidate with strong fundamentals is mired between 5 and 8 percent in the polls. There is, of course, the unexpected candidacy of Donald Trump, who has eclipsed Cruz not only in the polls but also in the national spotlight. Cruz has chosen uncharacteristically to lie low, and flying under the radar has meant that he hasn’t sustained many attacks from his rivals. Meanwhile, though many of his challengers rolled their eyes when he went out of his way to shower praise on Donald Trump, whose withering insults have done damage to stronger candidates, Cruz has managed to stay out of his path of destruction as well. Four months from the Iowa caucuses, he remains virtually untouched by his rivals. And, though he hasn’t had a real breakout moment, his supporters say the polls, particularly in Iowa, simply don’t predict what’s going to happen when caucusgoers and voters start getting more serious. Jeff King, the son of Iowa congressman Steve King, who’s working for one of Cruz’s cluster of four super PACs, says that national polls rarely reflect the reality on the ground in Iowa. “You can almost throw ’em out,” he says.

Polls in Iowa may not be that much better. Of the six polls taken closest to the 2012 caucuses, none showed Rick Santorum running ahead of Mitt Romney; one showed Ron Paul winning. In 2008, Mitt Romney led Mike Huckabee until about a month before the caucuses.  “I would caution everybody to be very, very, very leery of drawing any conclusions from Iowa polling,” says Deace. Some are starting to take note of his strength. In a blog post titled “Ted Cruz vs. Marco Rubio: This Is Where We Are Headed,” the right-wing commentator Erick Erickson, the soon-to-be-former proprietor of the RedState blog, wrote last month that if Republican primary voters were to cast their ballots now, “We’d find the last men standing would be Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio,” and that Cruz would have the advantage. “He’s in an incredibly strong position,” says David Bossie, the president of the conservative activist group Citizens United. “If Ted Cruz does not win the nomination, he is gonna come back to the United States Senate as the most powerful senator, even without the title of majority leader.”

 on: October 07, 2015, 10:41:22 PM 
Started by DougMacG - Last post by DougMacG
This story changes the election.  Previously Rubio seemed to walk right into the 'rape abortion' mess that brought down some tea party Senate candidates in the last couple of cycles, saying on CNN that the unborn [even in that situation] 'deserve protection under the law'.

That is a logically consistent statement for a pro-life but also a political suicide pact.  I couldn't understand why a man who thinks so fast on is feet, has thought deeply about all the issues, and makes virtually no other political mistakes (since his role in the gang of 8 immigration nightmare) - why would he step in this so badly, an issue the President is mostly powerless on anyway?

Rubio is as pro-life as they get and yet LifeSiteNews reports that Sen Rubio not only supports the sale of the 'morning after' pill, he supports the sale of it over-the-counter, trumping (forgive the expression) all of the Democrats on this crucial, so-called women's health issue.

Marco Rubio supports selling the morning after pill over-the-counter

 Marco Rubio

WASHINGTON, D.C., October 6, 2015 (LifeSiteNews) – Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio supports selling the morning after pill over the counter.

The Florida senator, a Roman Catholic, said he supports making the abortifacient available without a prescription, perhaps based on a misunderstanding of when conception occurs.

“In the cases [of rape or incest], they’re terrible tragedies. They’re horrifying,” Sen. Rubio said in response to a candidate survey by the news editorial site theSkimm. “And luckily in the 21st century, we have treatments available early on after an incident that can prevent that fertilization from happening. And that’s why I support the morning after pill being available over the counter – and I certainly support them being made available immediately for rape victims.”

However, one of the world's foremost authorities on the subject – Dr. James Trussell – said that the morning after pill may work as an abortifacient and that, for the sake of full disclosure, women must be told by taking the pill they may be aborting their unborn children.

Pro-life advocates have long said that all forms of so-called “emergency contraception,” like many forms of hormonal birth control, often thin the uterine lining and result in elective abortion.

In the remarks, Rubio made clear that he believes the unborn child is a human being deserving of legal protection.

“I have said repeatedly that I understand how difficult it is, a young 15-year-old girl who finds herself pregnant and she’s scared and she has her whole future is ahead of her,” Sen. Rubio said. “And I don’t in any way diminish that and I do believe women have the right to choose what to do with their own bodies.”

“But in the case of a pregnancy there’s a second person involved and that’s an unborn human being,” he continued. “When confronted with two competing rights, the right to live and the right to choose, I’m forced to make a choice. And I’m gonna choose the side of life.”

Sen. Rubio said at the first presidential debate that he does not believe in exceptions for abortion due to rape or incest – but that he was willing to vote for such laws.

His position on emergency contraception echoed a statement Rubio made in August during in an interview with Meet the Press, in which he said he supports the general availability of the morning after pill. He said that he supports the fact that Plan B is currently sold “over the counter, and it’s available to people.”

The Catholic Church teaches that abortion is gravely immoral, and that  the morning after pill - since it can induce abortion -  falls under the same sin as abortion. One Vatican prelate called it a “direct attack” on the unborn.

Asked by theSkimm if he would endorse laws to block certain forms of contraception, he drew a clear distinction between his Catholic faith and the law.

“No. And I don’t want to ban any contraceptive efforts,” Rubio responded. “Obviously, my faith has a teaching that governs me in my personal life on these issues. But I think our laws on those issues are different.”

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