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 on: August 28, 2015, 09:26:59 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
I have heard but not yet verified that Trump speaks very highly of his sister who is both a federal judge and an aggro abortion supporter.

I wonder what kind of judges he would nominate for SCOTUS?

 on: August 28, 2015, 09:15:27 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ppulatie
You are much more positive about things than I am. The GOPe and the Media are looking for anything to stop Trump and this would provide them much attention.

Now to go walk the dog. He needs to do a Bush and Hillary.

 on: August 28, 2015, 09:15:00 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
Here we get into David Gordon's distinction between making a profit and being a prophet.

I suspect and fear we will be proven right over time, but in the meantime we have left a lot of profit on the table.  Missing a near tripling of the DOW and NAZ is no small thing.  Looking in the rear view mirror, we see the near zero interest rate policies of the Fed puffing up the markets-- why did we not see this in advance?

Also, we were dead wrong about the Fed's injection of reserves into the banking system causing inflation.  Scott Grannis was right.

 on: August 28, 2015, 09:11:03 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog

This can be read in various ways, from alarming to encouraging.

Off the top of my head, making the case for encouraging it could be argued that without moving US rates, China lessens future leverage over the US.  Arguably China is peeing into the winds of reality here and that, as usually is the case, government interventions cannot command the vastness of currency markets.

 on: August 28, 2015, 09:07:52 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ppulatie
Agreed CD. But if not for the massive manipulation of Interest Rate, QE and other Fed programs, where would we be?

Sure, the Stock Market is up, but only because of the Fed actions. Yet, the middle class is not getting better.

The Housing Market is "up" only after massive amounts of QE buying MBS, both Private Label pre-existing toxic loans, and then most of the new GSE originations. Add in the low interest rates and this is all it got?

Home values have "increased" but this is only the result of a housing market that is on life support. Values have increased solely because of the lack of inventory and "hot money" buying up inventory. Now that the hot money has gone, values are increasing at a much lower rate. (Hmmm, something else to add to the "recovery" chapter. That money is replaced by private investors, often engaging in occupancy fraud.

What happens when Interest Rates increase? Home values fall. Loans become more expensive. The ARMs being taken out now and the legacy ARMs will go nuts and drive more foreclosures. Home Sales will fall because of the higher payments needed.

BTW, why is inventory so low in many of the hardest hit foreclosure states? It is because lenders are still not foreclosing. Loans are being modified with terms that will cause re-default within a year or two. Lenders are not listing their foreclosure inventory because it would be like China dumping products in the US. Lower prices, hence more losses.

Sorry, but I don't "buy" artificial manipulation of market factors as being a "meaningful" recovery of either Housing, the Market, or other parts of the economy.

 on: August 28, 2015, 09:05:34 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog

Of course the other candidates would say the predictable things, but I think the case would be this:

It shows Trump can work with others and underlines the depth of the Rep bench.  Those who like those candidates but wonder about their completeness to be president (and IMHO that is many people) may well come to feel that Trump isn't so bad after all.   

Cruz as AG would be a truly inspired choice , , ,  Imagine him handling the illegal alien, 14th Amendment issues for Rep candidate Trump, or Ben Carson handling Obamacare replacement and race issues, and Fiorina getting in a cat fight with Hillary or Buffoon Joe.

 on: August 28, 2015, 08:58:32 AM 
Started by ccp - Last post by Crafty_Dog
So, more thoughts on Donald Trump’s candidacy, because I can’t stop being fascinated.

You know the latest numbers. Quinnipiac University’s poll this week has Mr. Trump at a hefty 28% nationally, up from 20% in July. Public Policy Polling has Mr. Trump leading all Republicans in New Hampshire with 35%. A Monmouth University poll has him at 30% in South Carolina, followed 15 points later by Ben Carson.

Here are some things I think are happening.

One is the deepening estrangement between the elites and the non-elites in America. This is the area in which Trumpism flourishes. We’ll talk about that deeper in.

Second, Mr. Trump’s support is not limited to Republicans, not by any means.

Third, the traditional mediating or guiding institutions within the Republican universe—its establishment, respected voices in conservative media, sober-minded state party officials—have little to no impact on Mr. Trump’s rise. Some say voices of authority should stand up to oppose him, which will lower his standing. But Republican powers don’t have that kind of juice anymore. Mr. Trump’s supporters aren’t just bucking a party, they’re bucking everything around, within and connected to it.

Since Mr. Trump announced I’ve worked or traveled in, among other places, Southern California, Connecticut, Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey and New York’s Long Island. In all places I just talked to people. My biggest sense is that political professionals are going to have to rethink “the base,” reimagine it when they see it in their minds.

I’ve written before about an acquaintance—late 60s, northern Georgia, lives on Social Security, voted Obama in ’08, not partisan, watches Fox News, hates Wall Street and “the GOP establishment.” She continues to be so ardent for Mr. Trump that she not only watched his speech in Mobile, Ala., on live TV, she watched while excitedly texting with family members—middle-class, white, independent-minded—who were in the audience cheering. Is that “the Republican base”? I guess maybe it is, because she texted me Wednesday to say she’d just registered Republican. I asked if she’d ever been one before. Reply: “No, never!!!”

Something is going on, some tectonic plates are moving in interesting ways. My friend Cesar works the deli counter at my neighborhood grocery store. He is Dominican, an immigrant, early 50s, and listens most mornings to a local Hispanic radio station, La Mega, on 97.9 FM. Their morning show is the popular “El Vacilón de la Mañana,” and after the first GOP debate, Cesar told me, they opened the lines to call-ins, asking listeners (mostly Puerto Rican, Dominican, Mexican) for their impressions. More than half called in to say they were for Mr. Trump. Their praise, Cesar told me a few weeks ago, dumbfounded the hosts. I later spoke to one of them, who identified himself as D.J. New Era. He backed Cesar’s story. “We were very surprised,” at the Trump support, he said. Why? “It’s a Latin-based market!”

“He’s the man,” Cesar said of Mr. Trump. This week I went by and Cesar told me that after Mr. Trump threw Univision’s well-known anchor and immigration activist, Jorge Ramos, out of an Iowa news conference on Tuesday evening, the “El Vacilón” hosts again threw open the phone lines the following morning and were again surprised that the majority of callers backed not Mr. Ramos but Mr. Trump. Cesar, who I should probably note sees me, I sense, as a very nice establishment person who needs to get with the new reality, was delighted.

I said: Cesar, you’re supposed to be offended by Trump, he said Mexico is sending over criminals, he has been unfriendly, you’re an immigrant. Cesar shook his head: No, you have it wrong. Immigrants, he said, don’t like illegal immigration, and they’re with Mr. Trump on anchor babies. “They are coming in from other countries to give birth to take advantage of the system. We are saying that! When you come to this country, you pledge loyalty to the country that opened the doors to help you.”

He added, “We don’t bloc vote anymore.” The idea of a “Latin vote” is “disparate,” which he said generally translates as nonsense, but which he means as “bull----.”

He finished, on the subject of Jorge Ramos: “The elite have different notions from the grass-roots working people.”

OK. Old style: Jorge Ramos speaks for Hispanic America. New style: Jorge Ramos speaks for Jorge Ramos. Old style: If I’ve lost Walter Cronkite, I’ve lost middle America. New style: How touching that an American president once thought if you lost a newsman you’d lost a country.

It is noted that a poll this week said Hispanics are very much not for Donald Trump. Gallup had 65% with an unfavorable view of him, and only 14% favorable. Mr. Trump and Mr. Ramos actually got into that, when Mr. Ramos finally questioned him after being allowed back into the news conference. Mr. Trump countered with a recent Nevada poll that has him with a state lead of 28%—and he scored even higher with Nevada’s Hispanics, who gave him 31% support.

I will throw in here that almost wherever I’ve been this summer, I kept meeting immigrants who are or have grown conservative—more men than women, but women too.

America is so in play.

And: “the base” isn’t the limited, clichéd thing it once was, it’s becoming a big, broad jumble that few understand.

On the subject of elites, I spoke to Scott Miller, co-founder of the Sawyer Miller political-consulting firm, who is now a corporate consultant. He worked on the Ross Perot campaign in 1992 and knows something about outside challenges. He views the key political fact of our time as this: “Over 80% of the American people, across the board, believe an elite group of political incumbents, plus big business, big media, big banks, big unions and big special interests—the whole Washington political class—have rigged the system for the wealthy and connected.” It is “a remarkable moment,” he said. More than half of the American people believe “something has changed, our democracy is not like it used to be, people feel they no longer have a voice.”

Mr. Miller added: “People who work for a living are thinking this thing is broken, and that economic inequality is the result of the elite rigging the system for themselves. We’re seeing something big.”

Support for Mr. Trump is not, he said, limited to the GOP base: “The molecules are in motion.” I asked what he meant. He said bars of support are not solid, things are in motion as molecules are “before combustion, or before a branch breaks.”

I end with this. An odd thing, in my observation, is that deep down the elite themselves also think the game is rigged. They don’t disagree, and they don’t like what they see—corruption, shallowness and selfishness in the systems all around them. Their odd anguish is that they have no faith the American people can—or will—do anything to turn it around. They see the American voter as distracted, poorly educated, subject to emotional and personality-driven political adventures. They sometimes refer to “Jaywalking,” the old Jay Leno “Tonight Show” staple in which he walked outside the studio and asked the man on the street about history. What caused the American Civil War? Um, Hitler? When did it take place, roughly? Uh, 1958?

Both sides, the elites and the non-elites, sense that things are stuck.

The people hate the elites, which is not new, and very American. The elites have no faith in the people, which, actually, is new. Everything is stasis. Then Donald Trump comes, like a rock thrown through a showroom window, and the molecules start to move.

 on: August 28, 2015, 08:52:46 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by G M


 on: August 28, 2015, 08:51:25 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by ppulatie
"Ted Cruz Attorney General, Ben Carson the Sec of HHS to handle health care, and Carly Fiorina to something that calls upon her considerable talents."

Let's assume that Trump makes an announcement like this today. What is the response?

1. Cruz, Carson and Fiorina all three denounce Trump and saying that they are running for President and not a Cabinet post.

2. The rest of the candidates and the GOPe all accuse Trump of trying to bribe his competition to not run any longer.

3. The media goes nuts, accepts the GOPe claims, and then jumps on Trump and his "Cabinet Choices", claiming that this would be harmful to liberals and minorities. The uproar would be more harmful than good.

 on: August 28, 2015, 08:50:32 AM 
Started by Crafty_Dog - Last post by Crafty_Dog
Look everyone, this forum needs to remember all the times we have been wrong, even though they are far less than we have been right.

For example,

a) for years we have predicted mass inflation;
b) we missed a near tripling of the Dow, even as most of us rag on Wesbury and Grannis who essentially got it right

and, ahem,

c) though the predictions of doom may well ultimately prove to be right, years of price growth have been missed.

The search for Truth to which this forum is dedicated requires that we too continuously re-examine our premises and consider worthy points of view other than only ones with which we already agree.

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