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DougMacG
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« Reply #500 on: October 28, 2014, 01:55:04 PM »

California Leads Housing Slowdown As Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline For 4 Months In A Row

Case-Shiller data for August confirmed once again that US housing is rapidly slowing down, when the Top 20 Composite Index (Seasonally Adjusted) posted another decline in August, its fourth in a row, declining by -0.15% and missing expectations of a modest 0.2% rebound (following last month's -0.5%) decline.

S&P's David Blitzer: "The deceleration in home prices continues... The Sun Belt region reported its worst annual returns since 2012, led by weakness in all three California cities -- Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego."

  - But who cares what the birth (and death) place of every housing bubble is doing, right?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-28/california-leads-housing-slowdown-case-shiller-home-prices-decline-4-months-row
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #501 on: November 19, 2014, 12:49:36 PM »



Housing Starts Declined 2.8% in October To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 11/19/2014

Housing starts declined 2.8% in October to a 1.009 million annual rate, coming in below the consensus expected 1.025 million annual rate. Starts are up 7.8% versus a year ago.

The decline in starts in October was all due to a sharp 15.4% drop in multi-family units; single family starts rose 4.2%. In the past year, single-family starts are up 15.4% while multi-family starts are down 6.0%.

Starts in October declined in the Midwest, Northeast and West, but were up in the South.

New building permits rose 4.8% in October to a 1.080 million annual rate, coming in above the consensus expected 1.040 million. Compared to a year ago, permits for single-units are up 2.4% while permits for multi-family homes are down 0.5%.

Implications: Home building has been very volatile over the past few months but the underlying trend remains upward and we expect that to continue. The best news from today’s report was that building permits rose 4.8% in October, as single-family and multi-family permits rose 1.4% and 10% respectively. Permits now stand at the highest level since June 2008, signaling future gains in home building in the months to come. October’s drop of 2.8% for home building was all due to multi-family units, which were down 15.4% in October and have caused large swings in overall housing starts over the past few months. Single-family starts have been steadily rising over the past three months. So, the multi-family volatility over the past few months has masked slow underlying improvement in the housing sector. To smooth out the volatility we look at the 12-month moving average. This is now at the highest level since September 2008. The total number of homes under construction, (started, but not yet finished) increased 1.4% in October and are up 20.1% versus a year ago. No wonder residential construction jobs are up 131,000 in the past year. Although multi-family construction has slowed over the past few months, it has still taken the clear lead in the housing recovery. Single-family starts have been in a tight range for the past two years, while the trend in multi-family units has been up steeply. In the past year, 36% of all housing starts have been for multi-unit buildings, the most since the mid-1980s, when the last wave of Baby Boomers was leaving college. From a direct GDP perspective, the construction of multi-family homes adds less, per unit, to the economy than single-family homes. However, home building is still a positive for real GDP growth and we expect that trend to continue. Based on population growth and “scrappage,” housing starts will rise to about 1.5 million units per year over the next couple of years.
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