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Author Topic: The US Congress; Congressional races  (Read 10162 times)
DougMacG
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« Reply #200 on: February 14, 2014, 10:13:11 PM »

Poll Shows Republican Terri Lynn Land Leading Michigan Senate Race 
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/198400-poll-finds-gop-maintains-lead-in-michigan-senate-race
http://www.rttnews.com/2270231/poll-shows-republican-terri-lynn-land-leading-michigan-senate-race.aspx?type=glpn

A victory for the Republican candidate in Michigan could go a long way in the GOP's efforts to retake control of the Senate in 2014.

The poll also showed that Republican Gov. Rick Snyder maintains an eight-point lead over Democratic challenger Mark Schauer. 

A negative assessment of President Obama's job performance may be weighing on the Democratic candidates, as 61 percent of likely Michigan voters said they would give the president a negative rating.
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Obama carried Michigan in 2008 by 17 points.  The times they are a changin'


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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #201 on: February 19, 2014, 01:25:33 AM »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YyPzU8Uf30
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DougMacG
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« Reply #202 on: February 20, 2014, 11:05:38 AM »

I like like the math behind this but others might just know his conclusions.  Based on analysis of previous elections and the electoral maps out there, Republicans need to pick up 8 or 9 Senate seats in 2014 in order to still hold majority after 2016.  It will take wins in the House, Senate and Presidency to even try to turn this ship around.  (This should have happened in 2012!)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/02/20/computing_democrats_risk_of_losing_the_senate_121640.html

Over the past two cycles, the president’s job approval has explained 58 percent of the variance in competitive Senate races in any given state.

...unless 2016 turned out to be a good Republican year overall, that Republicans would probably have to win 53 or 54 seats in 2014 to feel good about their chances of holding the Senate two years later.



 At Obama’s current 44 percent approval rating, we’d expect Democrats to lose somewhere between nine and 13 seats.

 If we run our simulations around [his average rating 48.3 percent over his presidency], we get the following overall distribution of outcomes:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/images/wysiwyg_images/chart3-2-20.gif

(The only way Obama recovers from where he is today back to his Presidency average is if Republicans either take off the pressure or if they self-implode.  Both scenarios are possible.)
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G M
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« Reply #203 on: February 20, 2014, 11:10:56 AM »

(The only way Obama recovers from where he is today back to his Presidency average is if Republicans either take off the pressure or if they self-implode.  Both scenarios are possible.)

Given the GOP's history, it's an almost certainty.
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DougMacG
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« Reply #204 on: February 20, 2014, 12:45:09 PM »

(The only way Obama recovers from where he is today back to his Presidency average is if Republicans either take off the pressure or if they self-implode.  Both scenarios are possible.)

Given the GOP's history, it's an almost certainty.

Yes.  Even so, with politics as usual Republicans in a sleepwalk might re-take the Senate and hold the House in 2014.  Then lose it all in 2016 without accomplishing a single thing unless we/they are able to pull together and communicate a compelling message.  It all sounds familiar, doesn't it.
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DougMacG
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« Reply #205 on: March 04, 2014, 05:13:11 PM »

Charlie Cook
March 3, 2014

"There are now at least 10, and potentially as many as 13, Democratic-held [US Senate] seats in jeopardy."

http://www.nationaljournal.com/off-to-the-races/congressional-democrats-face-uphill-battle-in-midterms-20140303
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ccp
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« Reply #206 on: March 04, 2014, 05:52:34 PM »

"There are now at least 10, and potentially as many as 13, Democratic-held [US Senate] seats in jeopardy."


We need 15.

Otherwise we will still have a President who is ruling through stacking the agencies with cronies and dictates through them for another two years.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #207 on: March 05, 2014, 08:06:09 PM »

http://www.bizpacreview.com/2014/03/05/texas-turmoil-for-dems-pro-impeachment-anti-obamacare-democrat-pulls-primary-shocker-104677
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DougMacG
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« Reply #208 on: March 13, 2014, 09:57:23 AM »

Most expensive congressional race in history ($11 million)
David Jolly (R) beat Alex Sink (D) in a district Obama carried in 2008 and 2012.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/200523-republican-jolly-wins-crucial-florida-special-election

Despite millions spent, Dems are down 4 points from Obama's 2012 vote.  Nationally, Obama received 51% of the vote in a magical turnout year.  Take away 4% and give most of it back to the Republican and Dems don't win the divided states and districts.

In this case, the Libertarian won 5% too.  Someone can explain to me how a strategy that allows Dems to win with significantly less than 50% of the vote advances libertarian ideals.  I fail to see it.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2014, 01:41:08 PM by DougMacG » Logged
bigdog
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« Reply #209 on: April 09, 2014, 11:46:07 AM »

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/us-policy-has-gone-liberals-way-for-70-years/2014/04/08/8dffa2b2-b906-11e3-9a05-c739f29ccb08_print.html

From the article:

In response, conservatives make two simple claims: Most policies under debate are liberal, and Republican leaders sacrifice conservative principles when they compromise. History shows they are right on both counts
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DougMacG
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« Reply #210 on: April 17, 2014, 12:23:27 PM »

Energy State Dems in Senate Races Split From Obama

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/04/17/energy_state_dems_in_senate_races_split_from_obama_122303.html#ixzz2zAIIojQx

Obama lost all of West Virginia's 55 counties in 2012 and won just 35.5 percent of the vote statewide.

11 Democrats last week urged Obama to approve the Keystone XL oil pipeline by the end of May.  Six of them face contested re-elections this year.

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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #211 on: April 23, 2014, 06:02:05 PM »

McClintock first came to my attention via Top Dog who recommended him as a particularly good and savvy state legislator whose advise on the various state Propositions was always well-informed and sound.  Such was my experience.  He is now a Congressman in northern CA and I continue to send some money his way every campaign, and will do so again.

----------------------------------------------

AUBURN, Calif. — A moderate Republican trying to unseat a conservative congressman from his own party, Art Moore sat a little stiffly at a Sizzler restaurant here during the monthly meeting of the Auburn Area Republican Women Federated. Appearing after the meeting’s agenda was already set, Mr. Moore was not invited to speak before the group — not that it would have made much of a difference.

He knew that many local Republican officials did not look kindly at his recent decision to challenge Representative Tom McClintock, a Tea Party favorite. One of them, Bonnie McAdams, was blunt about it.

“Don’t run against other Republicans,” Ms. McAdams, a member of the Republican Party’s central committee in Placer County, told Mr. Moore. “Go get the other guys. They’re the enemies, not the Republicans.”

Mr. Moore’s challenge in California’s Fourth Congressional District is an unusual one, even against the backdrop of the Republican Party’s internecine battles. Contested Republican primaries for the House and Senate typically feature conservative challengers, backed by motivated and enthusiastic Tea Party members, against moderate incumbents.
Photo
Art Moore, a moderate, is challenging McClintock. Credit Jim Wilson/The New York Times

But here in California, where a top-two primary system nearly guarantees that Mr. Moore will move past the primary to the general election, the challenge is coming from the left, with Mr. Moore arguing that Mr. McClintock is too conservative even for this strongly Republican district. Conservatives are gathering to protect Mr. McClintock, one of the few congressmen whose voting record is considered perfect by prominent conservative groups like Club for Growth and Freedom Works. In response, Mr. Moore has hired Rob Stutzman, a onetime aide to former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger — a moderate Republican himself — as a political consultant.

The two candidates have been busy taking jabs at each other. Mr. McClintock criticized Mr. Moore for failing to vote in past elections; Mr. Moore said he had not voted because of a belief that career military officers like him should not be involved in politics, adding that he is no longer in the military. Mr. Moore faulted Mr. McClintock for living in Elk Grove, outside his congressional district; Mr. McClintock said he would like to move into his district but could not sell his house until it regained the value it had lost during the housing crisis.

Mr. Moore, 35, and his campaign manager, Jeff Wyly, laid out the reasoning behind his run: unhappiness among typical voters at the gridlock in Washington and with conservatives like Mr. McClintock, who last fall voted to shut down the federal government to prevent financing for President Obama’s health care program. The primary is scheduled for June 3.

“It’s healthy for the party to have competition,” Mr. Moore said. “This shouldn’t be seen as destructive. It’s a win-win situation for the Republicans because if I win, I think I bring a much better brand and future to the party. If he wins, he’ll at least have gotten some competition that might make him rethink his role as a representative.”

Still, Mr. Moore is not likely to sway people like Ms. McAdams, who became politically active five years ago by joining the Tea Party. She said she was upset that Mr. Moore was targeting a conservative like Mr. McClintock, who “is standing up for the people” along with Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky.
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Mr. McClintock said that his conservative principles would appeal to all Republicans and that his strong positions on civil liberties, including his stance against spying by the National Security Agency, would win over some Democrats. “I’m quite content to go toe to toe for every vote in this district,” he said.

Analysts said the race was difficult to handicap, in part because it does not fit the pattern of what has been going on around the country.

“Given the mood of the Republican base, it’s still more likely that a conservative challenger beats a moderate incumbent, rather than vice versa,” said David Wasserman, who follows House races for the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter.

Mr. Wasserman added, however, that most incumbents were likely to survive challenges from a fellow Republican. “The power of incumbency is very strong,” he said. “Local groups and organizations are very hesitant to get involved against an incumbent.”

The Fourth District occupies a large swath in central and Northern California, from the politically moderate suburbs of Sacramento to the conservative towns of the Central Valley and the rural communities of the Sierra Nevada foothills. Mr. McClintock, 57, who was first elected in 2008, won 61 percent of the votes in the 2012 general election against a little-known Democrat.

Allan Hoffenblum, who has worked for three decades as a Republican consultant and analyst in California, said many moderate Republicans in the district were displeased with Mr. McClintock, who, like many conservatives, favors spending cuts and smaller government. The district includes many farming communities, and Mr. McClintock voted against the recent farm bill, which he described as giving giant subsidies to agricultural businesses.

“There’s been unhappiness in that district because of McClintock’s rigid ideas. He’s not sending any money back to the district,” Mr. Hoffenblum said. “So if Moore can actually do well in the crossover vote, he can actually give McClintock a serious challenge.”

In California’s system, the two candidates who get the most votes in the June primary will move on to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. The third candidate is an independent; three Democrats who had considered running decided not to. So Mr. McClintock and Mr. Moore are almost guaranteed to face off in November.

Mr. Moore grew up here and returned to the area in December with a view toward running for Congress. A graduate of West Point, he served for 14 years in the National Guard, including 30 months of deployment overseas. He lived in Washington until December, working as a consultant in intelligence.

Mr. Moore hopes to succeed in November by drawing moderate Republicans away from Mr. McClintock and winning overwhelmingly among non-Republicans.

After a town-hall meeting in San Andreas, a small town in the district, Mr. McClintock dismissed the idea that the Republican rivalry here echoed the larger one within the party. Instead, he said, he sees a cynical attempt at exploiting California’s top-two primary system by Mr. Moore and the Democrats.

“It’s obvious that he coordinated closely with the Democrats to manipulate the new primary system in California to keep a Democrat off the ballot,” Mr. McClintock said. “When we watch one Democrat after another pull papers and then suddenly decide not to file, I think it’s a pretty good guess that there is coordination going on.”

Mr. Moore, who is seeking elected office for the first time, denied any coordination with Democrats. He said that about half a dozen Republican officials and businessmen in the district, as well as Democrats and independents, had encouraged him to run, and that friends from childhood and his Boy Scout days had introduced him to Republican operatives, including his consultant, Mr. Stutzman.

But as an indication of the difficulties in challenging an incumbent, Mr. Moore said his supporters were not ready yet to endorse him publicly, which Mr. McClintock pointed to as evidence of his challenger’s lack of credibility.

Mr. Moore said he hoped that the first of the endorsements would be made soon.

“I’m hoping it’ll come before the primary,” he said. “But I don’t have it solidified yet.”
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DougMacG
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« Reply #212 on: April 23, 2014, 10:11:50 PM »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXqHI059n90
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ccp
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« Reply #213 on: Today at 09:09:13 AM »



By Scott Conroy - April 23, 2014

A new round of polls released on Wednesday offered generally upbeat news for Democrats in four U.S. Senate contests in Southern states considered key to the party's hopes of retaining its majority in November.  

According to the New York Times/Kaiser Family Foundation surveys, vulnerable incumbent Democrats are holding on to leads in Louisiana and Arkansas and effectively tied in North Carolina. Upstart challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, meanwhile, is trailing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell by just a single point in Kentucky.

All four races are critical to Republicans’ hopes of netting the six seats they need to regain control of the upper chamber.

Though he narrowly lost North Carolina in 2012, President Obama was blown out by margins ranging from 17 to 24 percentage points in the other three states, suggesting that the Democratic Senate candidates are running strong campaigns in a region that has grown increasingly hostile to their party in federal elections.  

In North Carolina, Sen. Kay Hagan leads state House Speaker Thom Tillis -- the frontrunner in the Republican primary -- 42 percent to 40 percent, according to the new poll.

In Louisiana’s still largely unsettled contest, in which there are no primaries, Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu leads the Republican frontrunner, Rep. Bill Cassidy, by a 42 percent to 18 percent margin, with 20 percent of respondents having no opinion.

The most surprising result of the new surveys comes in Arkansas, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor enjoys a 10-point advantage over Republican Rep. Tom Cotton. Pryor has long been considered the most vulnerable Senate Democrat this November, but he leads Cotton by 2.2 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average.  

National Democratic operatives moved quickly to highlight the Arkansas poll, in particular, on Wednesday morning. “DC convention wisdom is flat out wrong in Arkansas and there’s mounting evidence of Mark Pryor’s strength,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Justin Barasky said in an emailed statement.

Meanwhile, Republicans were eager to cast doubt on the polls’ methodology, noting, among other concerns, that the head-to-head surveys measured support among registered voters rather than likely voters. They also questioned the validity of the samplings.

The Weekly Standard noted that the percentage of respondents in each of the four Southern states who said they had voted for Obama was much higher than the actual 2012 results.

Scott Conroy is a national political reporter for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at sconroy@realclearpolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter @RealClearScott.

Read more: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/04/23/senate_polls_buoy_southern_dems_gop_is_skeptical_122387.html#ixzz2zoRfkrK8
Follow us: @RCP_Articles on Twitter
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