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Author Topic: 2016 Presidential  (Read 24386 times)
Power User
Posts: 33361

« Reply #250 on: May 21, 2015, 09:21:53 AM »

Should We Be Excluding GOP Candidates From Debates This Early?
Fox News and CNN are drawing a line in the sand -- er, on the debate stage. If you want to be part of the big show in the first Republican presidential debates, you have to be in the top ten in polling. Otherwise, you’re consigned to other appearances on the network, or as Byron York called it, “the kiddie table.”
“The CNN Republican primary debate on September 16 will be divided into two parts featuring two different sets of candidates: those who rank in the top 10 according to public polling, and the remaining candidates who mean a minimum threshold of one percent in public polling, the On Media blog has learned.”
For college basketball fans, think of the second CNN debate as the NIT Tournament. If everyone agrees you won the second debate, you get to chant, “We’re number eleven! We’re number eleven!”
Ace makes the case that at this point, no serious candidate should be left out:
People don’t know enough to make informed judgments yet. That is the point of a debate -- and that’s the point of a first debate, surely.
We are in the very beginnings of this process, and FoxNews is using polls of uninformed people (and I don’t mean that negatively; most of us are uniformed at this point) to decide who is allowed to run for President.
And yes, this poll -- based on nothing but name recognition -- will in fact knock five or six people out of the contest entirely. Once you’re excluded from a debate, you are labeled “fringe” forever -- and good luck trying to get free media, volunteers, and donors once you’ve been labeled fringe.
. . . This isn’t a normal year. We have a lot of serious candidates. So do we stick with the usual, or do we adjust our practices to take into consideration the unusualness of this season?
I think the latter. My proposal is that they split debate night into two panels, over two nights. (Or two panels on one night-- but that would be a long night, with around three hours total debate time plus time in between.)
The top six in the polls would do a random draw to be split between the panels, three and three. Everyone else would do another random draw to determine which panel they’d be in.
You’d end up having about 6-8 people per panel, which is a workable number.
Note that the Fox “solution” solves little -- having ten people on the stage, answering the same questions, will be a huge [bad word for mess]! It’s barely an improvement over having fifteen -- do the math. Assuming about an hour, all told, answering questions (once the questions themselves, commercials, and basic traffic direction are excluded), ten people would have about six minute each to answer questions.
Fifteen people would have four minutes each.
So we’re fighting to get “four minutes of actual answers per candidate” up to six minutes?
A lot of us have the cynical suspicion that some of the candidates know they have no shot at the nomination, and are running to achieve some lesser goal: the vice-presidential slot, a cabinet post, a television gig, bigger speaking fees and book deals after the election. Last cycle’s experience demonstrated that even the longest of long-shots can end up being the flavor-of-the-month.
Power User
Posts: 6486

« Reply #251 on: May 21, 2015, 05:47:17 PM »

“The CNN Republican primary debate on September 16 will be divided into two parts featuring two different sets of candidates: those who rank in the top 10 according to public polling, and the remaining candidates who mean a minimum threshold of one percent in public polling"

The first thing wrong with the information above is that CNN is allowed to host.  They should be in at least a 4 year penalty box for their behavior last time.

The Republican party leaders face a good but difficult situation.  As it sits now, there are candidates excluded that I would like to see included.  But if one person like Reince Priebus made that determination, the story would be about him instead of about the candidates.  If you set up stadium seating for 19 or so, the event becomes unmanageable and unwatchable for most viewers.  Early polling data is a lousy criteria, though probably better than all the alternatives.  We are talking about 9 debates over an extended period?  If so, the big news coming into debates 2, 3, 4, etc. is that candidate so-and-so is the new face to watch.  It is a game of momentum, among other things, so missing the first few debates is not necessarily a knockout punch unless a campaign is not organized and managed to survive that.

If not CNN, another network, even if it is pj media (or dbma), can host competing forums to showcase the best of the excluded candidates and ask the same questions - or better ones.  Candidates can cut their own answers out and run ads or post their own videos to promote on the internet.

Bobby Jindal is a two term Governor of a crucial state.  He handled the Katrina aftermath, the gulf oil spill, has immigrant heritage, was a Rhodes Scholar, etc., is young with good ideas; he deserves a look.  People love Ben Carson, fresh face, amazing personal story, big thinker, really accomplished guy; he deserves a look.  I believe he is black, too, which would be good for the party's reach out efforts.  Carly Fiorina has unique qualifications and is showing a unique ability to challenge the front runner of the other side.  She may have an advantage trying to connect with a certain side of the electorate.

Still, reaching the top ten of the Republicans before the 9th debate is very do-able for anyone that is capable of winning the nomination and the general election.  It is not that hard for the top 19 to get a look on conservative media coverage.  Candidates at or near the top will stumble, and this is a very long process.

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