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Author Topic: The US Congress; Congressional races  (Read 9866 times)
DougMacG
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« Reply #200 on: February 14, 2014, 10:13:11 PM »

Poll Shows Republican Terri Lynn Land Leading Michigan Senate Race 
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/198400-poll-finds-gop-maintains-lead-in-michigan-senate-race
http://www.rttnews.com/2270231/poll-shows-republican-terri-lynn-land-leading-michigan-senate-race.aspx?type=glpn

A victory for the Republican candidate in Michigan could go a long way in the GOP's efforts to retake control of the Senate in 2014.

The poll also showed that Republican Gov. Rick Snyder maintains an eight-point lead over Democratic challenger Mark Schauer. 

A negative assessment of President Obama's job performance may be weighing on the Democratic candidates, as 61 percent of likely Michigan voters said they would give the president a negative rating.
-------------------

Obama carried Michigan in 2008 by 17 points.  The times they are a changin'


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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #201 on: February 19, 2014, 01:25:33 AM »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YyPzU8Uf30
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DougMacG
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« Reply #202 on: February 20, 2014, 11:05:38 AM »

I like like the math behind this but others might just know his conclusions.  Based on analysis of previous elections and the electoral maps out there, Republicans need to pick up 8 or 9 Senate seats in 2014 in order to still hold majority after 2016.  It will take wins in the House, Senate and Presidency to even try to turn this ship around.  (This should have happened in 2012!)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/02/20/computing_democrats_risk_of_losing_the_senate_121640.html

Over the past two cycles, the president’s job approval has explained 58 percent of the variance in competitive Senate races in any given state.

...unless 2016 turned out to be a good Republican year overall, that Republicans would probably have to win 53 or 54 seats in 2014 to feel good about their chances of holding the Senate two years later.



 At Obama’s current 44 percent approval rating, we’d expect Democrats to lose somewhere between nine and 13 seats.

 If we run our simulations around [his average rating 48.3 percent over his presidency], we get the following overall distribution of outcomes:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/images/wysiwyg_images/chart3-2-20.gif

(The only way Obama recovers from where he is today back to his Presidency average is if Republicans either take off the pressure or if they self-implode.  Both scenarios are possible.)
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G M
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« Reply #203 on: February 20, 2014, 11:10:56 AM »

(The only way Obama recovers from where he is today back to his Presidency average is if Republicans either take off the pressure or if they self-implode.  Both scenarios are possible.)

Given the GOP's history, it's an almost certainty.
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DougMacG
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« Reply #204 on: February 20, 2014, 12:45:09 PM »

(The only way Obama recovers from where he is today back to his Presidency average is if Republicans either take off the pressure or if they self-implode.  Both scenarios are possible.)

Given the GOP's history, it's an almost certainty.

Yes.  Even so, with politics as usual Republicans in a sleepwalk might re-take the Senate and hold the House in 2014.  Then lose it all in 2016 without accomplishing a single thing unless we/they are able to pull together and communicate a compelling message.  It all sounds familiar, doesn't it.
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DougMacG
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« Reply #205 on: March 04, 2014, 05:13:11 PM »

Charlie Cook
March 3, 2014

"There are now at least 10, and potentially as many as 13, Democratic-held [US Senate] seats in jeopardy."

http://www.nationaljournal.com/off-to-the-races/congressional-democrats-face-uphill-battle-in-midterms-20140303
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ccp
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« Reply #206 on: March 04, 2014, 05:52:34 PM »

"There are now at least 10, and potentially as many as 13, Democratic-held [US Senate] seats in jeopardy."


We need 15.

Otherwise we will still have a President who is ruling through stacking the agencies with cronies and dictates through them for another two years.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #207 on: March 05, 2014, 08:06:09 PM »

http://www.bizpacreview.com/2014/03/05/texas-turmoil-for-dems-pro-impeachment-anti-obamacare-democrat-pulls-primary-shocker-104677
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DougMacG
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« Reply #208 on: March 13, 2014, 09:57:23 AM »

Most expensive congressional race in history ($11 million)
David Jolly (R) beat Alex Sink (D) in a district Obama carried in 2008 and 2012.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/200523-republican-jolly-wins-crucial-florida-special-election

Despite millions spent, Dems are down 4 points from Obama's 2012 vote.  Nationally, Obama received 51% of the vote in a magical turnout year.  Take away 4% and give most of it back to the Republican and Dems don't win the divided states and districts.

In this case, the Libertarian won 5% too.  Someone can explain to me how a strategy that allows Dems to win with significantly less than 50% of the vote advances libertarian ideals.  I fail to see it.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2014, 01:41:08 PM by DougMacG » Logged
bigdog
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« Reply #209 on: April 09, 2014, 11:46:07 AM »

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/us-policy-has-gone-liberals-way-for-70-years/2014/04/08/8dffa2b2-b906-11e3-9a05-c739f29ccb08_print.html

From the article:

In response, conservatives make two simple claims: Most policies under debate are liberal, and Republican leaders sacrifice conservative principles when they compromise. History shows they are right on both counts
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DougMacG
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« Reply #210 on: Today at 12:23:27 PM »

Energy State Dems in Senate Races Split From Obama

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/04/17/energy_state_dems_in_senate_races_split_from_obama_122303.html#ixzz2zAIIojQx

Obama lost all of West Virginia's 55 counties in 2012 and won just 35.5 percent of the vote statewide.

11 Democrats last week urged Obama to approve the Keystone XL oil pipeline by the end of May.  Six of them face contested re-elections this year.

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