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Author Topic: Mexico-US matters  (Read 205758 times)
Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #600 on: February 19, 2017, 04:06:53 PM »

or , , , desaparecido , , ,
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DDF
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« Reply #601 on: February 20, 2017, 10:15:30 AM »

Both. It's Mexico and there is a full on drug war here. Everything goes.

Edit: There are several public cases of both. No rumors.... mass graves.... all kinds of things.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 10:18:06 AM by DDF » Logged

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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #602 on: February 20, 2017, 10:50:26 AM »

And two dead Secretarias de Gobernacion (the #2 post in the country, and quite commonly the next president) from odd plane/helicopter crashes during the previous administration , , ,
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DDF
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« Reply #603 on: February 20, 2017, 03:00:40 PM »

And two dead Secretarias de Gobernacion (the #2 post in the country, and quite commonly the next president) from odd plane/helicopter crashes during the previous administration , , ,

Indeed.

It's Mexico.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #604 on: February 20, 2017, 04:25:35 PM »

I might add that the third one passed on trying for the presidency and went back to being governor of BCN or BCS where he was reputed to have gotten quite wealthy while governor there previously-- presumably working in concert with local cartel(s).  (Working from memory here based on an article I read in Proceso the last time I was in Mexico.

Do I have this right DDF?
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DDF
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« Reply #605 on: February 20, 2017, 09:52:56 PM »

I might add that the third one passed on trying for the presidency and went back to being governor of BCN or BCS where he was reputed to have gotten quite wealthy while governor there previously-- presumably working in concert with local cartel(s).  (Working from memory here based on an article I read in Proceso the last time I was in Mexico.

Do I have this right DDF?

You do.

With the last administration here, they approved a federal loan of billions and billions of pesos. In order to pass the measure, there are many that say the votes to pass the measure, were purchased. The population was clearly against it. They have now issued a criminal case against him - http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2016/12/21/1135536

Now... with the new administration, things like seat belt tickets are appearing....a new state tax levied at the Canadian mine owners... that the Federal government just shot down... and the outgoing governor now in hot water for mismanagement of funds (he was #3 favored to be future president).... due to my status here...I cannot speak to politics without being in danger of being expelled from the country.... but I can say, there are lots and lots of stories covered publicly in the media, with proof of corruption, and all other manners of misbehavior or worse.
One of the worst case scenarios, is the case of the Monreal Family.... almost all of whom, work in the government industry, come from farms.... and have grown so rich, that one of them (David Monreal IIRC), now has mansions in Malibu and other places in the US. His relative Ricardo is now a senator here...and had written a book (Escuadras de la Muerte) . . . http://imagendelgolfo.mx/resumen.php?id=395521 .... where he describes even the age and gender on average... of sicarios.... even info that we don't have... and is said to run with the Zeta cartel, as well as is blamed for their presence here where I am at.

In my personal experience, I can say that there are almost certainly agreements between the cartels and high level politicians, because when there are not (and there have been times when this is readily apparent - administration changes, etc...)... the body counts, public executions, narcomantras and firefights spike notably.

I'm almost done with my degree in law here... and have gotten to a point, where I tire of the whole deal.... and am just looking to bring my wife back and see what we will do from there. I have possibilities in the works... haven't really heard anything from any of them.. but that's where I'm at with all of it... Had I been born Mexican, I may feel differently, but I wasn't... and that is made clear here to me daily...

Be fighting you all again in gatherings shortly I imagine. My wife sends her regards.

Edited to include the source on the charges against Miguel Alonso Reyes.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 09:57:14 PM by DDF » Logged

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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #606 on: February 22, 2017, 01:30:08 PM »

An unusually well informed Mexican friend responds to this thread:

Well I could only read trough some of it.

There are a few points I don't agree with. Specifically:

Governor Osunas cartel ties. He was the governor I work with directly... He is as clean as they come. He has the distinction of being the only governor in the history of Baja to pick military forces as bodyguards instead of police for his final 4 years of being in office. 

This is very telling.

He lives in the same house he did before he started and if you are ever so inclined I can make the introductions and you can  meet him yourself. He manages his small businesses in Baja directly. You can find him at his office most days.

Proceso is a leftist publication... And has a slant towards the PRI at times.

I take most of the stuff I read in it with a bit of scepticism.
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DDF
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« Reply #607 on: February 22, 2017, 01:42:41 PM »

I'm an unusually well informed, Mexican friend too.

Osuna has his detractors in the news, but then again, so does everyone. I don't know the guy personally. He left office here in 2013.... I had only started in 2012.

The governor here on the other hand.... I have more than a few photos with and know him well. Monreal... does have knowledge that he probably shouldn't have.

If you want me to admit whether there are clean politicians or not, who's to say? There are plenty of stories concerning almost every one of them floating around in the news... even Peña Nieto goes from being corrupt to being "the best president in the world" (they literally said that), in the course of a week.

The police here, with anything above municipal and penitentiary police, are almost all former military and especially escoltas.

Not sure what the point is. I know what I've seen being here, working here and living here, for years.

Then again... soon to be none of my business.

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DDF
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« Reply #608 on: February 22, 2017, 01:51:47 PM »

Regarding Osuna....

"En el que capturaron a unos de los lugartenientes del \”Teo\” mas mencionados, el “Kaibil”, junto con otros de sus colaboradores, además también se capturaron a unos escoltas o ex-escoltas del gobernador Osuna Milán, a ministeriales, policías estatales y policías municipales de Rosarito."

http://mexablog.com/2009/03/12/la-misma-corrupcion-en-todo-mexico/

Not getting into a tit for tat deal with anyone else you know Guru.... I have nothing but respect for you and anyone else you know.

My point is merely... the news and other sources do in fact say "things."

Then again... I have always stated.... "what happens in Vegas... stays in Vegas. What happens in Mexico... never even happened."There is a lot of truth in that.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #609 on: February 23, 2017, 08:24:41 AM »

Mexico's central bank will offer up to $20 billion in currency hedges to calm the peso's volatile exchange rate relative to the dollar. The money would come from Mexico's considerable foreign currency reserves, which stand at around $179 billion. By injecting foreign currency from its reserves into circulation, Mexico City hopes to prevent the peso's value from dropping further. The decision is a clear and significant reaction to the pressures of U.S. economic and social policies.

A stronger dollar and the possibility of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve have for several years been driving down the value of the peso relative to the dollar, which is in turn driving up inflation. Between February 2014 and February 2017, the peso lost around 35 percent of its value, alarming the Mexican government, which is now attempting to limit fluctuations in the value of the peso to ensure social stability. If the peso depreciates more, it would push up food prices — including staples such as corn — hurting Mexico's poorer citizens and increasing the probability of protest. Opposition parties would capitalize on any such discontent to challenge the ruling party for presidential, legislative and gubernatorial positions.

Mexico is severely constrained when it comes to managing its domestic economy. Though it is hedging the value of the peso, it cannot prop it up forever. Moreover, Mexico has been hiking interest rates (currently at around 6.25 percent) to limit inflation but any further hikes will curb lending and further slow the economy. Regardless, Mexico will continue trying to limit inflation and promote growth. Whether it is successful, however, depends a great deal on outside factors, such as U.S. decisions on interest rates and renegotiating the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
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« Reply #610 on: February 23, 2017, 10:12:01 PM »

http://www.thediplomad.com/2017/02/the-new-mexican-war.html

Saturday, February 11, 2017
The New Mexican War

Much has been written, including in this blog, of the threat to America posed by radical Islamic terrorism. Not so much has been written about another threat, perhaps an even greater one. I refer to the threat posed by Mexico to the United States; it is multi-faceted and persistent, and forms a long established core component of Mexico's foreign policy.

Before I get into the subject let me engage in the usual disclaimer required in our snowflake culture. I have been in Mexico many times both on vacation and for work as a US diplomat. I know Mexico well, am fascinated by its history, and consider Mexico City one of the great cities in the world. If you want outstanding restaurants and, above all, world class museums and other cultural institutions, go to Mexico City.

That said, I also have long considered Mexico a major threat to America. I have dealt with Mexican diplomats at the UN, the OAS, and in Central and South America. They are first rate. They are patriotic, well-trained, dedicated, and hard working. They, almost to a man and a woman, are also possessed with a deep, deep animus towards the United States. At the UN and the OAS, for example, Mexico, in my experience, played the role of opponent to whatever we sought to do. They not only consistently voted against us, they collaborated with our opponents on resolutions and projects antithetical to our interests, and, for example, refused to oppose Cuban and Venezuelan human rights violations. They rarely passed on an opportunity to stick it in our eye.

Mexico had a major role in fostering guerrilla groups in Central America during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, backing off only when it became a hindrance to the NAFTA deal with the United States, and when some of the groups began operating in Mexico. Mexico is feared and resented throughout Central America as a bully and for its mistreatment of Central American migrants. The horror stories these migrants tell of their passage through Mexico are hair-raising and heartbreaking.

I wrote during the recent hysteria over Russian hacking and interference in our  2016 elections that,

    Is there foreign interference in our elections? You bet.

    The biggest offender? Not Russia, but Mexico. Mexican officials publicly called on Mexicans in the US to oppose Trump; Mexico's over fifty--yes, fifty--consulates in the US (here) are hot beds of political activity and activism. Millions of illegal and legal aliens largely from Mexico and Central America vote, yes vote. We need to have an in-depth investigation into Mexico's interference in our elections, an interference that goes well beyond revealing embarrassing DNC texts.

    There. That's an investigation the GOP should endorse, and the new SecState should take up the issue of Mexican interference in our elections.

That interference in our politics has not ceased since the elections. It, in fact, has increased. Some years ago, I mentioned to a senior colleague in the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs at State, my concern over the openly political activity engaged in by Mexico's consulates and diplomatic personnel in the U.S. She acknowledged it was a problem but not one anybody wanted to take up.  Well, it is now at a stage when it must be taken up. If the Trump administration is serious about protecting our borders and sovereignty the time has come for tough action on Mexico.

We see this story in the Wall Street Journal (and here) in which Mexican officials, including their diplomats in the US, are seeking to "jam" US courts with contested deportations. The Mexican government has set aside millions of dollars to help illegal Mexican migrants in the US fight efforts to deport them. In addition, Mexico, apparently, is contemplating the grotesque tactic of demanding that we PROVE that deportees are Mexican citizens before Mexico will accept them. In other words, we have to provide the documentation that Mexico failed to provide its own citizens. Mexican officials are holding meetings in Arizona with US politicians warning them about the harm to US-Mexico relations if illegal aliens are deported or prevented from coming to the US. Mexican officials are openly encouraging activists to block deportations. I find this nothing short of outrageous, but, nevertheless, a clear manifestation of the hostility that has long existed in Mexican officialdom for the USA.

We must not only defend our border but, in my view, it is well past the time for the US to begin shutting down most of these Mexican consulates. There is no justification for Mexico to have over fifty consulates in the US. Had I the power, we would give Mexico one week to close 25-30 consulates. In addition, we would work out a plan to close additional consulates depending on how Mexico behaves. If Mexico, in fact, refuses to take back deportees, then we would need to take additional actions such as shutting down our visa issuance in Mexico, kicking out their ambassador from Washington, closing down the border crossing for periods of time, and even halting remittances to Mexico--just to let Mexico feel the pain. As part, of course, of any comprehensive reform of our immigration laws, no federal money should go to supporting illegal aliens in the US.

The Southwest USA does not "belong" to Mexico. Mexico, please note, held California for about 25 years; they had Texas for even less time. Spain held the area for a couple hundred years, and we've had it for some 170 years. So enough with that argument. It is tiresome.

The USA has the right to defend its sovereignty and borders. Mexicans have no right of access to the US any more than anybody else does.
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DDF
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« Reply #611 on: February 24, 2017, 01:33:44 AM »

If people in the States for the most part, knew what is published in the news here, and said in the streets, whilst having a firm grasp on what Mexican law states about foreigners speaking their political opinions...

Trump, and the people that support him aren't just hated.... they are LOATHED, which is odd coming from a country and people that will boot any foreigner from the country for saying anything about politics.... almost ten years here... and number of American flags I've seen being waved here? Not even one.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #612 on: February 24, 2017, 10:16:51 AM »

Strong article there GM.

Note the temporary visas granted Haitians so they can get to US border mentioned in this article:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/feb/23/mexico-chides-us-on-trump-immigration-policies-adm/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTURFd1pUZzJZekl3T1RZeiIsInQiOiJwXC8rZ2FCd2s5R1lxbFBqVzAycnY3NGJjWGY1VW5sREVocCtDbGdvcjFKR2JrNnlaVzNMZUxxeHhkeDZZMERTTnF2dktzM243bDlsaFRMNHRCVFJrcGl6WG1mekVxOEFUR3NmUThzbzZ2QlZFVHh5MWRyc1VsU3dRVFRcL2dcL3hsQiJ9
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DDF
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« Reply #613 on: February 24, 2017, 05:21:25 PM »

Strong article there GM.

Note the temporary visas granted Haitians so they can get to US border mentioned in this article:


It's important to note... the Mexican Constitution specifcally allows for anyone having the right to pass through the national territory. Article 11:

"Article 11. Everyone has the right to enter and leave the Republic, to travel through its
territory and to change his residence without necessity of a letter of security, passport,
safe-conduct or any other similar requirement. The exercise of this right shall be
subordinated to the powers of the judiciary, in cases of civil or criminal liability, and to
those of the administrative authorities insofar as concerns the limitations imposed by the
laws regarding emigration, immigration and public health of the country, or in regard to
undesirable aliens resident in the country."
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #614 on: February 24, 2017, 09:13:35 PM »

I did not know that.  Point taken.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #615 on: February 25, 2017, 10:30:36 AM »



The acrid political atmosphere between the United States and Mexico created by the issue of immigrant deportation dominated the visit to Mexico City by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and John Kelly, secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The shifting U.S. stance toward immigration enforcement will play a significant part in shaping Mexico's domestic political landscape and will affect future relations between the two countries.

The most recent dispute between Mexico City and Washington revolves around memos written by Kelly to his department and made public Monday concerning how to implement executive orders issued by President Donald Trump that give authorities greater latitude to deport foreigners who break U.S. immigration law. Under Kelly's instructions, the United States could send those people to the contiguous country nearest to their point of detention — meaning Mexico in tens of thousands of cases — until their immigration hearings were resolved, although he said people whose cases were decided would be transported directly back to their home countries.

What is a Geopolitical Diary?

The policy outlined by Kelly, who at a press conference Thursday promised to prioritize the deportation of criminals and take a cooperative approach with Mexico in the matter, opens the door to increased deportation of Mexican-born migrants. This will create a number of headaches for authorities in Mexico City. Adding thousands of deportees to the ranks of the unemployed is certainly an unappealing prospect for Mexican officials, who are already dealing with federal budget cutbacks spurred by slumping oil prices. But increased deportations of Mexican citizens also could damage the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) ahead of the 2018 presidential race by creating the impression among voters that the PRI's leaders are weak in the face of unfavorable U.S. policy. This could drive up support for opposition parties such as the PRI's traditional foe, the National Action Party (PAN), or the upstart National Regeneration Movement (Morena), founded by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

The prospect of voters flocking to Morena is a major concern for Mexico's business and political elite. The private sector knows what to expect from PRI or PAN, but Morena has never held power. Lopez Obrador is not exactly a political outsider: He was previously mayor of Mexico City under the Party of the Democratic Revolution and twice ran unsuccessfully for president. But 2018 could produce a different result for him; polls indicate that he has the support of around a third of the electorate, and the current tussle with the United States could add to his popularity. But even as Lopez Obrador has publicly signaled a shift to the center by meeting with business leaders, economic and regulatory risks abound concerning his election. For example, he has repeatedly vowed to slow the pace of the country's 2013 energy reforms, which opened exploration and production in Mexico's oil and natural gas sectors to private foreign investment. Most recently, a Lopez Obrador spokesman said that if elected, the Moreno leader would halt Mexico City's oil and gas licensing rounds and review existing agreements. Lopez Obrador most likely made the promise in the hopes of bolstering support in areas hit hard by the downsizing of state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos and then riding a wave of nationalism to the presidency.

While his shot at the energy reforms may merely represent populist rhetoric intended to appeal to voters already angry with the government, it suggests that if Lopez Obrador assumes office, he would use his presidential powers to slow the pace of private capital entering Mexico's energy sector. This in turn raises the specter of political gridlock and infighting at a time when Mexico can ill afford it. With the United States pushing the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), such a divisive energy issue could be in front of Mexico's congress at the same time it might need to address changes in the trade status with the United States, a priority that congressional infighting could delay.

But aside from the political difficulties that changes in U.S. immigration policy could create, another angle of the issue has raised concerns in Mexico City. Accepting deported migrants from other countries (mostly those from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) without any promise of assistance from the United States would put Mexico in a difficult position. Though Mexico would accept its own citizens, the establishment of communities of largely jobless, sometimes criminal migrants from other nations (many of whom would never leave Mexico) would create long-term difficulties for the country. The number of Central Americans attempting to enter the United States illegally has surged, and the economic pressures that influence them to cross Mexico's southern border are not diminishing. That, combined with the Mexican administration's fears of a voter backlash if it acquiesces to the DHS directive, makes it no surprise that Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray said Mexico would not entertain cooperating on that portion of the new orders, although Mexico could face U.S. pressure to give in.

Discussions on security issues, particularly on ways to counter illegal migration and organized crime, will continue parallel to the NAFTA discussions, slated to begin in June. Before then, one of the main tools Mexico will use to shape negotiations on security and economic matters will be the threat of refusing to help the United States rein in illegal migration. Mexico has already suggested that it would reduce security cooperation if the United States pushes for changes to NAFTA that are unfavorable to Mexico. But putting that threat into practice will be a risky proposition for Mexico. The Trump administration can retaliate by cutting off most U.S. government assistance, a threat set up by the language of the DHS memos instructing agencies to identify any sources of aid to Mexico.

The ultimate intent of such a policy seems to be to pressure Mexico to accept U.S. demands, whether to agree to the suggestion that Mexico fund a border wall between the countries or to concede points in NAFTA negotiations. A reduction in Mexico's security cooperation with the United States, whether on intelligence gathering or migrant interdiction, could lead to retaliation from Washington, which could replace NAFTA with a bilateral trade agreement. The demise of NAFTA would result in more uncertainty for Mexico, which would find itself in the difficult position of negotiating a bilateral trade deal at a time when political relations with the United States are at an ebb.

Mexico's government would probably want to divorce security cooperation from the economic talks, but doing so may no longer be possible. As the negotiations go on, long-standing security issues such as migration and drug trafficking (and Mexican cooperation on those issues) will intersect with the purely economic aspects of Mexico's relationship with the United States. Mexico would clearly be at a disadvantage in NAFTA negotiations, but for now, Mexico City will wait to see what constraints limiting the White House's ability to act on NAFTA present themselves. The future of NAFTA is uncertain, even among Washington policymakers, and Mexican leaders likely hope that uncertainty will give way to a renegotiation of the pact, rather than to a rapid deterioration in economic and political ties.
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DDF
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« Reply #616 on: February 26, 2017, 03:09:24 AM »

Morena is growing in power daily here.

Mexico is already a socialist country... Morena will make it more so.

I'm wondering how long Mexico will keep its public support of migrants migrating north? Amerins by and large don't know it, but Mexico actually has public departments that promote (even illegal) immigration to the States, because of the amount of cash sent back to Mexico.

http://guerrero.gob.mx/?cat=792&s=+&post_type=directorio

http://codigo.michoacan.gob.mx/directorios/directorio_oficinas_general_cat.php?showdep=42

There are Ministries dedicated to this in every single state in Mexico.

Also noteworthy, are the huge clubs of Mexicans in the United States (primarily in Los Angeles and Chicago - being the largest amongst them), where i have personally guarded the governor here whilst meeting with them when they have returned to Mexico...to sponsor what they call a 3 for 1 program, wherein, the government here invests 3 pesos for every peso the clubs send back to Mexico....

http://www.3x1.sedesol.gob.mx/conoce.php?secc=0

You will notice that every link I attached has the ".gob" suffix, which is the Mexican equivalent of .gov, designating a government website.

The only reason Americans on't know the extent of this charade, is because they don't speak Spanish, and generally, anyone speaking Spanish in the States, supports the effort.

It's a scam of epic proportions... driven by dire need and corruption here. Americans get screwed in the process, as do Mexicans... because it allows the government here, to keep Mexicans dependant upon the US economy instead of fixing the economy here.

To date, there have only been something like 6 Mexican aircraft manufacturers, with only ONE currently producing driones... there has never been a Mexican helicopter.... there are zero Mexican car manufacturers, but they'll bu Nissan Tsurus by the ton (every taxi in the country is one almost).... and it isn't because Mexico lacks engineers that are capable of this.... it's because of a few things... government wanting to keep people dependent upon the government and ripping off the US economy being chief amongst them...

Even the drug war here could be combatted by developing the economy.... but they don't.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2017, 09:01:42 AM by Crafty_Dog » Logged

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« Reply #617 on: February 27, 2017, 06:14:02 AM »

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/02/26/tancredo-mexico-feels-no-shame-exporting-people-fruits-corrupt-socialist-economy-full-display/
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« Reply #618 on: March 10, 2017, 01:02:21 PM »

I know this is in Spanish (enough people will understand it to get the just of it), but this just happened.

He was a presidential candidate here. It won't happen, but it speaks to the common atitude of Mexicans concerning relations between both contries.

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/nacion/politica/2017/03/10/promueve-cardenas-demanda-para-anular-cesion-de-territorio-eu
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« Reply #619 on: March 10, 2017, 01:49:09 PM »

Map of how that might look here:
https://www.google.com/amp/io9.gizmodo.com/a-map-of-the-u-s-if-there-had-never-been-a-mexican-am-1613264384/amp

I wonder if they would like to restart the war or have the affected territories take a new voice of self-determination?
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DDF
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« Reply #620 on: March 10, 2017, 02:01:45 PM »

Map of how that might look here:
https://www.google.com/amp/io9.gizmodo.com/a-map-of-the-u-s-if-there-had-never-been-a-mexican-am-1613264384/amp

I wonder if they would like to restart the war or have the affected territories take a new voice of self-determination?

I want to laugh... then I think of how proud Mexicans are, "cut off one's nose to spite one's face," and I realize that I wouldn't put it past them. And the map you posted it exactly what they want.

I personally like the idea of self determination...especially with California's attitude lately, and the collossal stupidty of Pelosi.

This in particular:

« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 02:04:33 PM by DDF » Logged

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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #621 on: March 10, 2017, 03:47:18 PM »

DDF: 

Isn't Cardenas the son/grandson of the President from 1934-40?
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DDF
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« Reply #622 on: March 10, 2017, 06:52:29 PM »

DDF: 

Isn't Cardenas the son/grandson of the President from 1934-40?

He's the son of him (General/Mexican President Lázaro Cárdenas del Río). That is correct.

He also started the PRD party which is as Left as one can get here.

Mexico does have it written into its Constitution that anyone can only serve as president once (including those that serve in a temporary capacity); still, people stay in power in certain families for centuries, going all the way back to the Spanish Crown.

A great example of that, is the Monreal dynasty. They currently have 20+ politicians in their family. The Barrios family as well. There are several here.

In Los Angeles, they refer to Beverly Hills as "old money," and Encino being "newer money." Here in Mexico, most money comes from the beginning barring a couple of entrepreneurs and cartels... the rest of it goes all the way back to Spain.
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« Reply #623 on: March 10, 2017, 08:11:57 PM »

"He also started the PRD party which is as Left as one can get here."

I had forgotten that.

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« Reply #624 on: March 10, 2017, 11:50:25 PM »

"He also started the PRD party which is as Left as one can get here."

I had forgotten that.



The governor that just left, before the governor that I worked for Miguel Alonzo Reyes, Amalia Garcia, started it with him.

Anyways... not USA related, but concerning big names in Mexican politics... (and they really only go back a century in their story - the money and power have existed since Spain)... it's good to have on record in English... just for reference:

88 clans control Mexicos Congress

posted May 6, 2015, 7:16 PM by Hernan Cortes

Nepotism in Mexican congress. Are you surprised? 88 families have held control over 455 federal legislative positions during the last 81 years, a period in which when reelection to the legislature has been prohibited, according to an investigation by El Universal news outlet. Of these dynasties, 53 have been present for between nine and 18 years; and 35 between 21 and 57 years, according to an research by El Universal.

A group of 230 legislators that belong to the "castes" that have controlled Mexico's Congress since 1934 have survived to reforms and switched parties to remain in power. Many parliamentarians are candidates in the current electoral process, while others have their clan's seat secured through proportional representation.

Their political heritage lies in their lineage and surname, that open the doors of Congress and political power in general: Rojo-Lugo, Batres, Vicencio, Sansores, Monreal, Alcaine, Manatou, Martínez, Ortega, Padierna.

The biggest "brand" is the Vicencio family, from Xonacatlán de Vicencio, State of Mexico, a town that owes its establishment to Celso Vicencio, local congressman in 1870, the first legislator of the family.


It would be very interesting to do such an research in Baja Sur state government and the municipio of La Paz and Cabo San Lucas...... Somehow I got the feeling that the results will be very similar. The power is within a few names/clans, excessive nepotism and enrichment by connection at the cost of the general population. What else is new....


Find the original report at El Universal Newspaper

http://www.la-paz-bcs.com/la-paz-news/88-clans-control-mexicos-congress (english)
http://archivo.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion-mexico/2015/88-34clanes-34-familiares-dominan-congreso-1097457.html (spanish)
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 11:52:20 PM by DDF » Logged

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« Reply #625 on: March 11, 2017, 09:47:06 AM »

Valuable post there DDF!

Following up on the formation of the PRD-- I thought Munoz Ledo (from Team Louis Echeverria Alvarez) was the one behind that?
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« Reply #626 on: March 11, 2017, 08:58:30 PM »

I hope Chelsea Clinton comes out against nepotism in politics.
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« Reply #627 on: March 11, 2017, 09:03:15 PM »

I hope Chelsea Clinton comes out against nepotism in politics.

I won't hold my breath. I'd trust almost every forum member here (aside from myself) to execute the function of governance better than anyone sitting.

Valuable post there DDF!

Following up on the formation of the PRD-- I thought Munoz Ledo (from Team Louis Echeverria Alvarez) was the one behind that?


Tailwags Tujon GC.

I'm not certain, but I'll look it up and come back and edit the post. I'm about to leave the house for a few. I'll look it up within the next hour. Nepotism as GM rightly alludes to, seems to be a recurring theme in several countries.

Edit:  "In 1986, three PRI members – Rodolfo González Guevara, Porfirio Muñoz Ledo, and Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas – formed the Democratic Current, a political faction within the PRI." "The PRD was formed after the 1988 electoral fraud which sparked a movement away from the authoritarian rule of the PRI.[15] " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_of_the_Democratic_Revolution

Actually.... we were just going over this in school yesterday.... Evidently, the PRI (until just before 1986, was an extremely leftist party... (the professor - a former senator here - and from the Left)... stated that the PRI switched over to the Right for $$$.

Amalia Garcia "After briefly being a member of the Socialist Mexican Party, she became a founding member of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) when it was created in 1989." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amalia_Garc%C3%ADa


Mexico, being as socialist as it is (and it is VERY much so, especially from an American perspective - example... everyone of our electricity bills from the Federal Electrical Commission, are heavily subsidized by the federal government, where they pay for a healthy portion of it... and several other examples... EXCEPT in medical care.... that's horrible for those that don't have insurance from work... go figure," has several powerful politicians, many of them from the Left....and linked with each other in one way or another...going back years.

Sorry to use wikipedia to cite stuff... but it was quick and relatively accurate.

Ps... the PRI and PRD both still currently belong to a worldwide Socialist movement.
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« Reply #628 on: March 12, 2017, 03:13:48 PM »

Thank you.
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« Reply #629 on: March 17, 2017, 01:28:38 PM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/16/world/americas/mexico-trump-pena-nieto-wall-drug-war.html?emc=edit_th_20170317&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=49641193&_r=0
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« Reply #630 on: March 27, 2017, 12:44:10 PM »

https://www.facebook.com/259874557445743/photos/a.259878640778668.42544.259874557445743/992517717514753/?type=3&theater
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« Reply #631 on: March 31, 2017, 12:11:30 AM »

https://www.facebook.com/News8/videos/10154715186917552/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED
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« Reply #632 on: March 31, 2017, 12:05:49 PM »

second post

https://bluelivesmatter.blue/mexican-attorney-general-edgar-veytia/
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« Reply #633 on: April 01, 2017, 12:14:30 PM »


I hope the people that buy there have the money for an executive protection detail.
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« Reply #634 on: April 03, 2017, 02:15:29 AM »


No joke. Kidnappings have spiked lately too... in a major way.
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« Reply #635 on: April 03, 2017, 11:39:38 AM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/02/world/americas/mexico-corn-nafta-trade.html?emc=edit_th_20170403&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=49641193
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« Reply #636 on: April 03, 2017, 02:00:13 PM »


That is some of the worst economic reporting I have ever seen.  Probably no ag or trade economists on staff at NYT.  Were the Mexicans buying US corn as some kind of a favor to US farmers?  Or was it because they were getting the best product for the best price from the closest, most reliable suppliers?

If they could grow all their corn better and cheaper at home, wouldn't they already be doing that?  Don't we also buy a lot of Mexican agricultural products? https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/agricultural-trade/  What market of similar size, prosperity and proximity will they sell their products to when they cut off US trade?  How popular will Mexican leaders be when they force up food prices.  Is Argentina more efficient than the US?  Maybe a hundred years ago.  Maybe they can cut a supplier contract with Venezuela to buy their excess food.  Or substitute soy tortillas for corn.  Who will notice?

Good grief.

NYT is a little late to the story, CNN had it 2 months ago:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/13/news/economy/mexico-trump-us-corn/

What happens if this fictitious event actually happens?
"The global market effect would kick in, if Mexico stopped U.S. corn imports.  Any demand that would shift from the U.S. to South America would cause other world buyers to shift purchases from South America to the U.S.”  http://www.agriculture.com/news/business/no-mas-to-us-corn-imports-mexico-senator-says

Who knew?
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« Reply #637 on: April 03, 2017, 02:08:45 PM »

 cheesy cheesy cheesy
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« Reply #638 on: April 03, 2017, 04:16:13 PM »


The entire country hates Trump, they hate the idea of a wall.... but the thing that REALLY irked them... was when a truckload of avocados was turned back at the border, that was to be sold in the US.

I'm not making it up. They are very upset about that.
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« Reply #639 on: April 24, 2017, 05:36:41 PM »

So this just happened 15 minutes ago.

Someone has ripped of material that could be used for a dirty bomb.

http://www.tribunanoticias.mx/nueve-estados-en-alerta-por-robo-de-fuente-radiactiva/
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« Reply #640 on: April 26, 2017, 12:15:23 PM »

Clashes with Mexican security forces leave two cartel leaders dead



2017-04-23 | Mexico | Security — Mexican authorities confirmed the deaths of two cartel leaders in separate operations in Tamaulipas on 22 April 2017 (El Universal). In Reynosa, Cartel del Golfo head Juan Manuel Loisa Salinas, alias El Comandante Toro, was killed during clashes with state and federal security forces (El Universal). Following the confrontation, suspected Cartel del Golfo members caused chaos in Reynosa. The cartel members set up at least 32 roadblocks around the city including the use of burning vehicles as blockades set fire to a number of buildings and businesses. In Ciudad Victoria, personnel from the Mexican Navy came under attack and killed Los Zetas member Francisco Carreón Olvera, alias Pancho Carreón, during the gun battle (El Debate). Authorities in Tamaulipas noted the pair were principle actors responsible for violence in the region (El Universal).

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« Reply #641 on: May 16, 2017, 11:27:37 AM »

http://agenciacatolicamx.blogspot.mx/2017/05/un-musulman-frances-apunala-un.html
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« Reply #642 on: May 23, 2017, 07:21:50 PM »

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/us-world/border-mexico/article/Judge-presiding-over-El-Chapo-s-case-shot-in-9980271.php
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« Reply #643 on: July 13, 2017, 02:13:18 PM »



    Articles

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A serious challenge from populist politician Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador awaits Mexico's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in next year's presidential election. That's what polling data and the close results of the June 4 gubernatorial election in Mexico state suggest as Lopez Obrador looks ahead to a third presidential run in July 2018 after second-place finishes as the candidate for the Party of the Democratic Revolution in 2006 and 2012. Now leading his own party, the National Regeneration Movement, Lopez Obrador is in a statistical tie in recent polls with the PRI and National Action Party candidates.

While a Lopez Obrador victory would be historic, his ability to make sweeping changes in keeping with his populist rhetoric will be greatly constrained. Even if Lopez Obrador wins the presidency, Mexico's political and economic path will remain relatively stable.

As we've discussed the possibility of a Lopez Obrador victory with our contacts in Mexico, we've noticed that many of them believe he would seek to undertake a dramatic change in the way the government deals with Mexico's powerful criminal drug cartels. The idea is that as president, Lopez Obrador would seek to address Mexico's violence problem by cutting a deal with cartel leaders, and on the campaign trail, he has promised to end the deployment of military forces in the country. Such a deal would allow traffickers to operate in the country as long as they did so without violence. While the concept may sound possible in theory, there are simply too many obstacles to permit such a dramatic shift in policy.
A Look at History

The idea that a Mexican presidential candidate would place more emphasis on stopping violence in Mexico than on stopping the flow of narcotics to the United States is not new. Indeed, we heard similar talk during the 2006 and 2012 elections. Here is a quote from a Stratfor analysis I wrote in June 2011:

    One of the trial balloons that the opposition parties, especially the PRI, seem to be floating at present is the idea that if they are elected they will reverse [President Felipe] Calderon's policy of going after the cartels with a heavy hand and will instead try to reach some sort of accommodation with them. This policy would involve lifting government pressure against the cartels and thereby (ostensibly) reducing the level of violence that is wracking the country.

The people who believe such a shift is possible base their belief on a mistaken historical narrative. This holds that Mexican organized crime groups were controlled by the ruling PRI and were largely nonviolent until President Ernesto Zedillo, who was elected in 1994, abandoned the party's deal with the cartels after a corruption scandal enveloped his predecessor, Carlos Salinas de Gortari. When Zedillo unleashed the military on the cartels, this myth goes, violence spiked.

This rendition of events is deeply flawed. There were indeed close ties between the cartels and PRI figures at all levels of the Mexican government as well as between the cartels and powerful figures in other political parties. The cartels also fostered deep corruption into every level of law enforcement in Mexico. However, quite simply, the PRI did not control the cartels. Rather, the inverse was true. The cartels had a significant amount of control over some politicians and portions of the government.

The cartels were too rich and powerful to be corralled in this manner. In the 1980s, interdiction efforts forced an increasing amount of cocaine trafficking away from Caribbean routes and through Mexico. The vast wealth connected to the cocaine trade made the Mexican cartels far more powerful than they had ever been. It also caused them to become more protective of the source of their wealth. One of the first widely publicized manifestations of this protectionist streak was seen in the 1985 kidnapping, torture and murder of U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration Special Agent Enrique Camarena. While his death caused the United States to focus heavily on Mexico's powerful Guadalajara cartel and pressure the Mexican and regional governments to follow suit, cartel violence was not a new manifestation: The cartels assassinated rivals and journalists well before 1985.

After Miguel Angel Felix Gallardo and other leaders of the Guadalajara cartel were arrested in the wake of Camarena's murder, Gallardo's primary lieutenants assumed responsibility for the various areas where they operated. This resulted in the creation of the Tijuana cartel (Arellano Felix organization), the Juarez cartel (Carrillo Fuentes organization) and a group of cartels led by Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera, Ismael Zambada and others, known as the Sinaloa Federation. Tensions quickly flared between Guzman and the Arellano Felix brothers over control of smuggling routes — and profits — resulting in a bloody turf war that began in 1989 and wracked northwestern Mexico in the early 1990s. One of the high-profile side effects of their battles was the May 1993 murder of Cardinal Juan Jesus Posadas Ocampo and six other people at the Guadalajara airport. It is believed that a Tijuana cartel hit team sent to assassinate Guzman accidentally killed the Catholic Church leader. After Posadas' murder, Mexican law enforcement began to dramatically step up operations against both the Tijuana cartel and the Sinaloa Federation. This heat caused Guzman to flee to Guatemala, where he was arrested in June 1993.

In the early 1980s, many cartel figures served as their own enforcers, but as tensions escalated among competing gangs over control of the cocaine trade, violence escalated as the Tijuana cartel and others began to employ teams of police officers and street gang members to serve as enforcer units. Competing gangs formed similar enforcer groups. Osiel Cardenas-Guillen, the leader of the Gulf cartel, upped the ante by hiring a unit of special forces soldiers, and Los Zetas were formed. Again, rival cartels followed suit and hired their own groups of soldiers to counter the power of Los Zetas, leading to the militarization of cartel enforcer groups. The introduction of paramilitary forces brought along with it military weapons, and cartel enforcers graduated from using pistols, shotguns and submachine guns to regularly employing fully automatic assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and hand grenades.

A careful review of cartel history makes it clear that cartel violence in Mexico was a significant security problem well before Zedillo came into office in 1994. In fact, Salinas in his inaugural address in December 1989 noted that "narcotics trafficking has become a grave risk to the security of the nation." It was cartel violence, and corruption within law enforcement agencies, that led Zedillo to put the military into the fight against the cartels. They were not the cause of the violence, and taking the military off the streets will not end the violence that is plaguing Mexico — especially when there is no other force to replace them.

Besides, like the violence between the Tijuana cartel and Sinaloa Federation that led to the Posadas assassination, a substantial percentage of the violence in Mexico is spawned by cartel-on-cartel attacks and is not initiated by the government.
The Impact of Balkanization

Another severe constraint on the Mexican government's ability to reach some sort of arrangement with the cartels is that the cartel landscape has changed dramatically. Two main groups — the Guadalajara and Gulf cartels — controlled most drug trafficking in Mexico in the 1980s. Even a decade ago, there were only a handful of groups controlling most of the activity. But today, infighting caused by greed and suspicion, as well as decapitation caused by the arrest or killing of cartel leaders, has led to the Balkanization of Mexico's cartels. This fracturing has caused us to change the way we think about and analyze these groups. Instead of a monolithic Sinaloa Federation, dozens of organized crime groups have splintered from it. Likewise, what was the Gulf cartel is now a constellation of geographic gangs that are often at odds — and at war — with one another. Even if the Mexican government wanted to pursue deals to end the violence, and even if each group in this array of criminal gangs was willing to entertain such an offer, it would be impossible to reach any sort of comprehensive peace agreement with this many parties.

The 2011 analysis quoted above referred to campaign rhetoric from PRI candidate Enrique Pena Nieto. However, after he won election in 2012, Pena Nieto has not been able to dramatically reverse course as he proposed on the campaign trail. In fact, he has struggled to enact many of the more gradual changes he proposed, such as "mando unico," or unified state command over police forces and the creation of a gendarmerie, or paramilitary police force, to replace the military force deployed against the cartels. Without a replacement, it is impossible to pull the military out of the fight because to do so would create a security vacuum in the areas where the military is deployed. This would be socially and politically unacceptable.

Speaking of politics, the Mexican Congress also serves as a severe constraint on the power of the president to enact reforms. Without congressional support, the president could make only limited changes, and lawmakers would resist making any radical shifts in cartel policy.

This means that, much like immediate predecessors Pena Nieto, Calderon and Vicente Fox, Mexico's next president will not have much freedom to change the country's cartel policy.
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« Reply #644 on: August 02, 2017, 02:21:49 PM »

Drug Cartels Fuming at New U.S. Policy Screening 100% of Mexican Cargo Trucks

AUGUST 01, 2017

In a major shift from lax Obama-era regulations, the Trump administration is finally allowing customs officers to screen all cargo trucks entering the U.S. from Mexico and sources on both sides of the border tell Judicial Watch Mexican drug cartels are fuming. U.S. Customs and Border Protection is using X-ray technology and other non-intrusive tools to screen 100% of cargo trucks crossing the southern border after eight years of sporadic or random screening permitted under the Obama administration.

“We felt like we were the welcoming committee and not like we were guarding our borders,” said veteran U.S. Customs agent Patricia Cramer, who also serves as president of the Arizona chapter of the agency’s employee union. “The order was to facilitate traffic, not to stop any illegal drugs from entering the country,” Cramer added. “We want to enforce the law. That’s what we signed up for.” Cramer, a canine handler stationed at the Nogales port of entry in Arizona, said illicit drugs are pouring in through the southern border, especially massive quantities of fentanyl, an opioid painkiller that the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) says is more potent than morphine.

Approximately 471,000 trucks pass through the U.S-Mexico border monthly, according to figures published by the U.S. Department of Transportation. The busiest port of entry is in Laredo, Texas where 167,553 trucks enter the U.S. from Mexico monthly, followed by Otay Mesa in California (76,953), El Paso, Texas (58,913), Hidalgo, Texas (45,355) and Nogales with 29,439. Other busy ports include East Calexico, California (29,173), Brownsville, Texas (16,140) and Eagle Pass, Texas (12,952). Trucks bring in everything from auto parts to appliances, produce and livestock. In fact, a veteran Homeland Security official told Judicial Watch that cattle trucks passed without inspection during the Obama administration because Mexican farmers complained that the security screenings frightened their cows. “Our guys were livid that we were not allowed to check cattle,” the federal official said.

Frontline customs agents stationed along the southern border confirm that trucks containing “legitimate” goods are often used by sophisticated drug cartels to move cargo north. This is hardly surprising since most illegal drugs in the United States come from Mexico, according to the DEA, and Mexican traffickers remain the greatest threat to the United States. They’re classified as Transitional Criminal Organizations (TCOs) by the government and for years they’ve smuggled in enormous quantities of heroin, cocaine, methamphetamine and marijuana. Last year the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the nonpartisan agency that provides Congress with policy and legal analysis, published a disturbing report outlining how Mexican cartels move record quantities of drugs into the U.S. Because cartels move the drugs through the Southwest border, western states have become part of what’s known as the “heroin transit zone,” according to the CRS.

Federal law enforcement sources tell Judicial Watch Mexican cartels operate like efficient businesses that resort to “other more treacherous routes” when necessary, but driving through a port of entry in a cargo truck is a preferred method of moving drugs. Cartels station shifts of spotters with binoculars in Mexican hills near border checkpoints to determine the level of security screenings. “They know if we’re on the job, the level of screening that we’re conducting,” Cramer said. “The cartels watch us all the time.” Nogales is a favorite for cartel spotters because the U.S. checkpoint sits in a valley surrounded by hills on the Mexican side, where unobstructed views facilitate surveillance. “They see everything,” Cramer said. For years the cartel spotters saw that much of the cargo passing through the checkpoint was waved through, according to agents contacted by Judicial Watch.
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« Reply #645 on: August 05, 2017, 06:52:42 PM »

Aug 3, 2017 | 08:00 GMT
Mexico's Cartels Find Another Game Changer in Fentanyl
By Scott Stewart
VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor
Scott Stewart
Scott Stewart
VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor
Bags of heroin, some laced with fentanyl, are shown at a press conference at the office of the New York Attorney General.
(DREW ANGERER/Getty Images)

In my July 13 On Security column about the Mexican government's anti-cartel policy, I discussed how the dynamics of the cocaine trade affected the historical trajectory of Mexican organized crime. In short, cocaine provided cartels with unprecedented quantities of cash that they then parlayed into power. Starting in the 1980s, Mexican criminal organizations began fighting over the immense profit pool produced by the lucrative trade in powder, and this infighting has continued in one form or another to this day.

But cocaine was merely the first of several drugs that were game changers for Mexican organized crime groups. The latest of them, fentanyl (and related synthetic opioids), is the most profitable yet, and is rapidly becoming the deadliest drug for users north of the border.

Disruptive Drugs

Mexican criminals have been incredibly flexible and adaptive in terms of the drugs they supply to the massive illegal narcotics market in the United States. Much of this flexibility naturally comes in response to consumer demand for certain types of drugs. But enforcement and interdiction also heavily influence the activities of Mexican drug-trafficking organizations. Increased disruption of Caribbean cocaine-trafficking routes, for example, led Colombian cartels to rely more heavily on Mexican groups to move their product over land into the United States. This change transformed the Mexicans into a critical link in the cocaine supply chain and allowed figures such as Gulf cartel leader Juan Garcia Abrego to demand larger profit cuts.

Methamphetamine is another good example of Mexican cartels recognizing and seizing business opportunities created by market forces and enforcement activity. U.S. law enforcement action targeting industrial-scale methamphetamine labs in California's Central Valley, and state and federal legislation such as the Combat Methamphetamine Epidemic Act of 2005, made it increasingly difficult to manufacture methamphetamine in the United States. Mexican criminal organizations, especially several Sinaloa cartel affiliates, recognized the opportunity presented by these developments and dramatically expanded their methamphetamine production in response. They also improved the quality and purity of the drug, compared to the product made by smaller operations in the United States. As a result, methamphetamine for sale on American streets became better, cheaper and more widely available.

Sinaloa cartel lieutenant Ignacio "Nacho" Coronel even became known as the "king of crystal" due to the large quantities of methamphetamine his organization produced. Unlike cocaine, which they had to purchase from Colombian producers or, more expensively, Central American middlemen, Mexican cartels could produce methamphetamine from relatively inexpensive dual-use precursor chemicals. So, though the cartels had been making good money in the cocaine trade, methamphetamine was even more profitable, since the cartels could control the lion's share of the profit pool. And groups that had strong connections to Chinese chemical providers and could oversee the flow of chemicals through Mexico's ports had a competitive advantage. Indeed, the rise of Tierra Caliente organized crime groups such as La Familia Michoacana, the Knights Templar and the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion occurred largely because they controlled Mexico's ports and the methamphetamine trade.
Areas of cartel influence in Mexico.

Fentanyl: Low Costs, Big Profits

Lately, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has cracked down on pill mills prescribing opiates in the United States. As a result, people addicted to opiates have turned to alternatives such as Mexican black tar heroin. Mexican growers have planted record amounts of opium poppies in recent years, and the large influx of Mexican heroin to the United States has filled the coffers of growers and traffickers. Mexican heroin was strong, plentiful and inexpensive. And Mexican organizations also pioneered new distribution methods, even delivering heroin to the homes of users. One no longer had to travel into inner cities to obtain the drug, and heroin use expanded in all strata of society.

However, poppy cultivation is limited by geography. In Mexico, poppies grow best along the Sierra Madre Occidental mountain chain, on ridges above the 1,000-meter mark (3,280 feet) where the air is dry. So, there is a finite amount of space where opium poppies can be planted, and these locations are not difficult for the Mexican government to find and eradicate. Mexico has a relatively gentle climate and poppy growers ordinarily can manage two harvests of opium gum a year, but heroin production is nevertheless limited. It takes about three months for an opium poppy to mature and produce opium gum.

Fentanyl and other synthetic opiates, on the other hand, are not bound by geography or growing cycles. Fentanyl can be produced anywhere a laboratory can be set up, such as a warehouse in an industrial park, a home in a residential area or a clandestine lab in the mountains. It can be synthesized as long as there is access to the required precursor chemicals, which are almost exclusively imported from China. Fentanyl is also relatively inexpensive to produce — the DEA estimates it costs about $3,300 to produce 1 kilogram (2.2 pounds). It is also very potent, so a little goes a long way. According to the DEA, fentanyl is some 50 times more potent than heroin — and carfentanil is 100 times stronger than fentanyl. This makes the drug a smuggler's dream due to its compact nature. Smuggling 1 kilogram of fentanyl into the United States is, from a dosage standpoint, essentially the same as smuggling in 50 kilograms of heroin, and 1 kilogram of carfentanil is roughly the equivalent of 5,000 kilograms of heroin.

Due to fentanyl's strength, 1 kilogram can fetch more than $1 million on the retail drug market, making fentanyl the most profitable drug the Mexican cartels are trafficking. Fentanyl's inexpensive nature is why drug dealers have attempted to pass it off as various more expensive narcotics, such as "China White" heroin for example, or pressed it into pills to mimic pharmaceutical opiates such as oxycodone or hydrocodone. The potency of fentanyl, carfentanil and other derivatives also seriously increases the risk overdose. Dealers processing the drugs for sale on the street often struggle to accurately dispense the very small doses required — and small mistakes in dosage can be deadly. In fentanyl, a deadly dose is measured in milligrams — one thousandth of a gram. In carfentanil, a deadly dose is in micrograms — one millionth of a gram. When dealing with such microscopic amounts placed into a medium purporting to be heroin or a pharmaceutical pill, it isn't hard to see why miscalculations are made and why so many users are overdosing.

Lucrative Ports

Fentanyl is also relatively easy to synthesize; the chemists who work in Mexico's more complex methamphetamine labs have little problem manufacturing it. And given America's appetite for opioids, fentanyl is poised to become the latest in a line of drugs offering a competitive advantage to the organizations that produce them. As in the methamphetamine trade, those that control Mexico's ports are in the best position to benefit from the fentanyl trade: The same networks that produce and smuggle methamphetamine precursors can be used to bring fentanyl precursors into the country.

All Mexican cartels are able to smuggle some finished fentanyl from China and some quantity of the drug's precursors, but as fentanyl's popularity grows, the organizations that control the ports and have close ties to Chinese chemical providers will be able to produce the largest quantities with the most consistency. In terms of the current cartel landscape, this means that Tierra Caliente-based organized crime groups are the largest beneficiaries of the fentanyl trade — much as they have benefited the most from the methamphetamine trade. Indeed, synthetic drugs have largely fueled the rapid growth of the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion.

The Mexican navy assumed security responsibility for Mexico's ports in June, but the ports are rife with corruption and it is going to be a tall task for the navy to put a substantial dent in the flow of precursor chemicals and other contraband. Thus the ports will continue to be valuable possessions.

As with the fighting we have seen over lucrative smuggling corridors on the border, it is likely that other organizations will attempt to challenge the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion's control of Pacific coast ports such as Manzanillo and Lazaro Cardenas, as well as Veracruz on the Gulf Coast. With the amount of money at stake, any challenge is likely to be met with force and could result in significant intercartel violence. And of course, such potential for violence is of major concern to the many legitimate businesses that use Mexican ports for shipping.
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« Reply #646 on: August 08, 2017, 09:09:57 AM »

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4188347/los-cabos-mexican-beach-gunmen-kill-three-men/
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #647 on: August 29, 2017, 09:47:55 AM »

•   Mexico: Mexican government sources told Reuters that their government is studying the possibility of stepping in to replace Venezuelan oil program Petrocaribe if the government of President Nicolas Maduro were to fall. Petrocaribe is a trade initiative that provides subsidized oil to friendly countries. Cuba, a beneficiary of the initiative whose shipments have declined, has already had to limit retail fuel sales and request help from Russia. Mexico’s foreign minister was in Havana last week and reportedly tried to persuade Cuba to help fix Venezuela while reassuring Havana that Mexico will support it if Maduro falls. We need a better understanding of Mexico’s role in this situation. Is this the first sign of a more assertive Mexico?
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #648 on: September 21, 2017, 07:52:26 PM »



https://www.texasobserver.org/los-zetas-inc-author-mexicos-drug-war-isnt-drugs/
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Crafty_Dog
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MLO
« Reply #649 on: October 04, 2017, 11:04:55 PM »

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Forecast Update

Stratfor previously forecast that, even if populist Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador wins the presidency in 2018, the nation's military-centered public security policies will not change significantly. The release of a document outlining Lopez Obrador's tentative policy positions confirm this overall assessment, although there is room for him to selectively withdraw the armed forces from public security duties.

According to a new policy paper, Mexico's populist presidential candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, will deliver few surprises on public security when he officially reveals his platform. On Oct. 3, Mexican news outlet La Politica Online obtained a document outlining domestic and foreign policy priorities for a potential Lopez Obrador administration. The document suggests a Lopez Obrador administration would take a similar approach to public security and fighting cartels as his predecessor, current Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto.

The Pena Nieto administration — much like the potential Lopez Obrador administration — has taken note of the military's shortcomings as police officers. The longer they remain deployed to stem the violence from cartels, the more vulnerable they become to corruption. Further complicating matters is the fact that military forces don't operate within a clear legal framework, although military authorities supported legislation to correct this earlier in the year.

Although the policy paper criticizes prior administrations for overreliance on the armed forces to pursue and arrest drug traffickers, it doesn't suggest completely withdrawing troops from their now-permanent deployments. Instead, the paper calls for studies on a possible new force, the National Guard, to replace the military in its domestic security role. In this sense, Lopez Obrador's approach to public security is the same one Pena Nieto took when he entered office in 2013. Nieto attempted to create an auxiliary paramilitary force, called the gendarmerie, to gradually supplant the military. But the force was plagued by the same corruption issues faced by Mexican law enforcement at virtually all levels of government. The gendarmerie was expensive, and it was virtually impossible for the force to supplant the military during Pena Nieto's tenure. In 2015, when Mexico implemented budget cuts, the gendarmerie's lost 25 percent of its funding.

Previous Stratfor analysis said it was unlikely that a Lopez Obrador administration would move away from Mexico's current approach to government security. This development confirms that analysis, but it's important to remember that Lopez Obrador's proposals are not policy yet. If he comes to power, he could still attempt a gradual military withdrawal even without replacing the troops with an alternative force. However, because such movements would worry Washington, it's highly unlikely that Lopez Obrador would tear down the status quo with quick action. The White House has made it clear that border security is a major priority, and Mexico is not about to risk ruining relations with its largest trading partner. 
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