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Crafty_Dog
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« on: October 29, 2008, 03:04:14 PM »

Guau a todos:

Manana en la manana salgo en un viaje de 17 horas por la primera vez a Buenos Aires, Argentina para presentar un seminario para Nicolas.

Cuando yo vivia en Mexico, yo conocia a una Argentina muy graciosa y linda, con un acento lindisimo , , , una buena memoria  smiley

La Aventura continua!
Marc/Crafty Dog

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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2008, 12:01:25 AM »

November 1 - 2, 2008
Location: Buenos Aires, Argentina
Contact: Nicolás Wachsmann
Phone: 54 11 4741 1864
Email: dbma.argentina@gmail.com
Website: www.dogbrothers.com.ar
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2008, 03:04:46 PM »

Una tremenda experiencia.  Salgo en 90 minutos por el aeropuerto.  Mas en unos dias.
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Dog Mauricio
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2008, 10:39:10 AM »


     Hola Niciolás  cool

     Muchas felicidades por tu seminario con Guro Crafty en Argentina, estoy seguro que fue todo un éxito. Te deseo lo mejor y que DBMA siga creciendo en tu país.  cheesy

Un abrazo

Mauricio
DBMA Mèxico
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Nicolás
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2008, 05:57:47 PM »

Muchas gracias Mauricio!!, realmente fue un verdadero privilegio compartir con Guro Marc Denny estos días, fueron días intensos que no vamos a olvidar facilmente.

El seminario fue realmente muy bueno y los asistentes se fueron muy contentos, conformes y la mayoría de ellos con más ganas de entrenar que antes.

Un fuerte abrazo desde Argentina!!

Nicolás
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2008, 06:51:31 AM »

Disfrute muchisimo mi reciente viaje a Argentina y espero poder repitirlo lo mas pronto posible.

Comparato con Uds ahora un articulo, desafortunadamente en ingles, escrito sobre la situacion actual alli desde un punto de vista de aqui'.  ?Que opinan Uds?

====================

WSJ

"It is impossible to introduce into society a greater change and a greater evil than this: the conversion of the law into an instrument of plunder."
-- Frederic Bastiat, "The Law," 1850

Our subject today is not Barack Obama's "change" plan to "share the wealth." But readers who want to know what happens to a nation that legalizes plunder -- as the 19th century French economist termed the taking of private property for socialist ends -- will want to pay attention just the same.

 
AP
Argentines protest the nationalization of their pension funds, Oct. 28.
Argentina is a constitutional republic with many historical similarities to the U.S. It has a rich immigrant heritage and an abundance of natural resources. But the U.S. is a rich, advanced country and Argentina is poor.

How did the breadbasket of South America fall so far behind? One explanation goes back some 90 years, when the Argentine Supreme Court began chipping away at property rights as a way of addressing economic inequality. Argentine politicians quickly learned that lawful plunder was their path to power.

This history is still being written, and the latest chapter ought to frighten Americans.


Buenos Aires as an example of "sharing the wealth." (Nov. 3)
After seven straight years of driving up government spending and hammering every capitalist in sight, the Argentine government, which went bust in 2001, is running out of money -- again.

No surprise there. For more than a few years, analysts have warned that inflation, trade protectionism, disregard for contracts and confiscatory tax rates were having a deleterious effect on capital flows.

Suboptimal investment rates, the same analysts warned, would mean economic trouble when global growth began to slow and the commodity boom came to an end. But former President Nestór Kirchner (2003-2007) and his wife, current President Cristina Kirchner, had promised to bring change to Argentina and didn't want to hear it. They thought they saw better returns to their own bottom lines by stoking class warfare while increasing government spending.

That revenues would, at some point, fail to meet the rising expenses of the welfare state was predictable. The only mystery was when the wall would be hit and how the further plunder to make up the difference would be carried out.

On Oct. 21, Mrs. Kirchner ended the suspense by announcing that the nation's private pension system -- with a stock of $30 billion and a flow of $5 billion annually -- would become government property. To put that in words that Americans can more clearly comprehend, it would be as if the assets of all 401(k)s were suddenly swept out of owners' accounts and into a single government account.

The Americas in the News
Get the latest information in Spanish from The Wall Street Journal's Americas page.
Mrs. Kirchner defended her decision to seize the pension assets by asserting that the market is too risky for retirement savings, and that the returns earned by private-sector fund managers are not adequate.

That's quite a claim considering that the average annual return of Argentina's private-sector pension managers over the past 14 years is 13.9%. But it is even more absurd if one compares the private-sector returns to those of the government's pay-as-you-go social security system over four decades.

Last week La Nacion columnist Adrián Ventura reminded his compatriots of this "history of state fraud." In the 1960s, "the law guaranteed retirees 82% of their salaries," Mr. Ventura writes. But, he says, "it became impossible to calculate." How come? Because the government did not publish the true rates of inflation and, more broadly, because politicians had zero interest in protecting the assets. "The government did little to maintain its promise to pay good pensions to workers," Mr. Ventura explains, "and it did a lot to make use, for itself, of their savings."

The columnist was not just teaching a history lesson. He was reminding change advocates that plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. Today, the Argentine central bank stands accused of manipulating official inflation data and, because politicians have been spending like mad, between now and the end of 2009 the government will encounter a $10 billion financing gap.

By law half of the privately managed pension assets are already allocated to government debt. But it is not unreasonable to suspect -- as more than 70% of respondents in a Buenos Aires poll said last week -- that Mrs. Kirchner is acting not to achieve better returns, but to get her hands on the rest of the money ahead of midterm elections next year.

Mr. Ventura echoes the fears of many when he writes that her legislation "puts almost no limits on how the money can be used, and if it did, nothing would stop the government from modifying it or ignoring it."

Long-suffering Argentines know well that once converted into "an instrument of plunder" there is no limit to the pain the law can inflict. Americans might note that even when government is already highly interventionist, things can get worse.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #6 on: December 07, 2008, 07:37:22 AM »

Foto:
 Ampliar
Un hombre acusado de ser "el "mayor proveedor de efedrina de los carteles mexicanos" desde la Argentina fue apresado hoy en el Aeroparque Metropolitano tras una investigación realizada por agentes de inteligencia, informó el ministro de Justicia y Seguridad, Aníbal Fernández.

El detenido fue identificado como Mario Roberto Segovia, quien en los últimos dos años, según dijo el funcionario, "trasladó" de Buenos Aires a Rosario 8.171 kilogramos de efedrina, lo que equivaldría 30 millones de dólares en el mercado mexicano de la droga.

En declaraciones al canal de cable Todo Noticias, Fernández expresó que agentes de la Secretaría de Inteligencia del Estado (SIDE) y de la Policía Federal detuvieron a Segovia cuando iba a abordar un vuelo hacia Iguazú, junto a su primo Sebastián.
El ministro evitó dar "el dato" acerca de que si el hombre apresado tiene vinculación con el triple homicidio de General Rodríguez, aunque destacó que la operación estaba siendo completada "en Rosario y sus alrededores" con otros "14 allanamientos".

Fernández afirmó que "sin dudas" las toneladas de efedrina que Segovia llevó hacia Rosario desde la Capital Federal "eran para colocarlas en el mercado mexicano", donde el valor de la sustancia se triplica o cuadriplica en comparación con la Argentina.

La investigación, señaló el funcionario, se inició en septiembre de 2006 cuando en una encomienda aérea se detectaron 500 gramos de "una sustancia tóxica por ingestión" que, inclusive, es utilizada "como agente de guerra biológica". El paquete estaba destinado para "Héctor Germán Benítez, con domicilio virtual en una oficina de Rosario", agregó.

Fernández comentó que, tras un seguimiento, se determinó que la persona a la que iba dirigida la encomienda estaba detenida desde 2003 en el penal de Sierra Chica, por lo que se trataba de un nombre falso.
El ministro destacó que al poco tiempo fueron hallados "entre tres y ocho miligramos" de otro compuesto químico "que produce la muerte en adultos" y está prohibido en el país para su utilización en medicamentos.

Una investigación "de orfebre", expresó Fernández, permitió dar con Segovia, quien habita "una mansión" del barrio rosarino de Fisherton, "es dueño de vehículos de gran valor" y lleva un estilo de vida de "opulencia". En la actualidad, agregó el funcionario, el detenido "estaba trabajando en la fabricación de CD y DVD truchos".
 
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captainccs
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« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2009, 09:23:10 AM »

Los K: otra derrota de Chávez

por Eduardo CASANOVA

Con todas las miradas fijas en la crisis de Honduras, una gran noticia casi ha pasado inadvertida: la derrota de los Kirchner en Argentina, que es también un fracaso del teniente coronel Chávez Frías. En efecto, el teniente coronel golpista venezolano ha invertido una buena fortuna en ayudar a los Kirchner como parte de su esquema de convertirse en el amo de la América española. Buena parte de los recursos que tanta falta han hecho en Venezuela fueron desviados, mediante los famosos maletines o valijas, hacia los pagos de la pareja del Pingüino y su señora, que así se constituyeron en los representantes del chavismo en el Cono Sur. Muy a lo Chávez la emprendieron contra los productores del campo, seguros de que así ganaban puntos con el teniente coronel y ¿por qué no? con los descamisados y los cabecitas negras, Pero algo no les funcionó. Frente a estas elecciones legislativas basaron su estrategia en dos elementos: adelantarlas para evitar un mayor deterioro de sus bases y poner todo el peso del ex-presidente, hoy Primer Damo, para buscar votos en la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Pero, sí, algo les salió mal. Muy mal. El rival de K., De Narváez, le ganó en buena lid y lo dejó solo, fané y descangallado, y en el resto del país no les fue mejor. Como explica “La Nación” de Buenos Aires en su noticia principal de hoy, lunes 29 de junio de 2009: “el oficialismo quedó relegado en la Capital, Córdoba, Mendoza, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos y hasta en Santa Cruz”. Y lo más importante de todo: quedó en clara minoría en las dos cámaras del Congreso. Es decir, una derrota con todas las de la ley. También apunta “La Nación” que “Estas elecciones también marcaron la irrupción en el Congreso de la dirigencia ruralista, que saltó a la escena política a partir del conflicto con el Gobierno del año pasado. En Entre Ríos, la lista del Acuerdo Cívico y Social, liderada por dos dirigentes agrarios, venció al peronismo unido de Jorge Busti y el gobernador Sergio Urribarri. En total, cosecharon 11 legisladores nacionales.” Una triste y ojalá aleccionadora derrota de los que, alentados por un teniente coronel golpista venezolano, quisieron abusar del poder. Que con su pan se lo coman.


http://literanova.eduardocasanova.com/index.php/2009/06/29/los-k-otra-derrota-de-chavez
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Denny Schlesinger
Nicolás
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2012, 11:24:31 PM »


Comparto con ustedes algunas de las sesiones de sparring de nuestro grupo de DBMA en Argentina.

 Saludos!

 Nicolás Wachsmann














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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2012, 06:30:43 AM »

http://www.dogbrothers.gr/es/articles004.html
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Nicolás
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« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2012, 10:46:01 AM »

Muchas gracias Guro por postear el link!

Quisiera agradecer especialmente a Kostas por su esfuerzo y trabajo en apoyar y difundir nuestros grupos de entrenamiento a través de estos artículos.

Nicolás
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Nicolás
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« Reply #11 on: April 03, 2014, 07:40:22 PM »

 
 Vuelvo a compartir algo de nuestro entrenamiento en Buenos Aires, en este caso con doble bastón:

 Sparring con doble bastón:




 
 Ejercicio de Doble bastón vs dos oponentes:


 


 Saludos!

 Nicolás Wachsmann
 DBMA Argentina
 www.dogbrothers.com.ar
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2014, 09:35:52 PM »

A ver si haya alguien aqui , , ,
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captainccs
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« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2014, 09:42:59 PM »

Che Crafty, aquí estoy.
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Denny Schlesinger
Nicolás
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« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2014, 07:59:18 PM »

 
 En nuestra ultima sesión de entrenamiento tuvimos el privilegio de contar con la visita de Chris “Lazy Dog” Goard, ya que estuvo de paseo por Argentina.

Chris es un auténtico Dog Brother, con siete Gatherings en su haber y además instructor avanzado de Pekiti Tirsia de la academia de Loki "Tricky Dog" Jörgenson en Canadá.

Fue una sesión de sparring sumamente enriquecedora por la enorme experiencia que posee Chris, quien compartió con nosotros algunas de sus tácticas preferidas, es un excelente luchador y una muy humilde persona.

En cuanto tenga un rato voy a publicar algunas fotos del entrenamiento.

Saludos!

Nicolás Wachsmann
DBMA Argentina

www.dogbrothers.com.ar
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #15 on: April 21, 2014, 07:49:16 AM »

Nicolas:

Por favor disculpe la tardanza en mi respuesta, pero yo estaba en Brazil y luego con fuerzas especiales de nuestro ejercito.

Quiero felicitarte el buen trabajo que tu gente y tu estan mostrando aqui'.

Mi comentario mas detallado se encuentrara' en el foro de la DBMA Association.

Guro Crafty

PD:  Me alegra muchisimo que Uds tuvieran la experiencia de entrenar con Lazy Dog.

==================================================

How Argentina's Default Could Be New York's Loss
The commercial capital depends on U.S. courts to hold governments to their promises.
By Jonathan Macey
April 20, 2014 5:25 p.m. ET

The Supreme Court on Monday hears arguments in Republic of Argentina v. NML Capital. It is a simple case. But the decision will have far-reaching implications for international finance, sovereign debt and even the position of New York City as the financial capital of the world.

The controversy began in 2001 when, amid a severe domestic economic crisis, Argentina defaulted on $80 billion in debt. The government tried to make a deal with its bondholders twice, in 2005 and again in 2010, offering them new debt worth 25 cents to 29 cents for each dollar of the bonds in default.

Many bondholders took the deal but others declined. Argentina tried to coerce the holdouts by enacting its so-called Lock Law, which prohibits the Argentine government from making any better offer to the non-tendering bondholders or complying with any U.S. court ruling requiring holdouts to be repaid.

The original debt was sold to investors with an explicit term that disputes would be resolved in New York under New York law. And in the continuing litigation, the holdouts are relying on U.S. courts to enforce a clause in the bond covenant that requires Argentina to treat all bondholders equally. This clause, known to lawyers as a pari passu clause, means Argentina cannot pick and choose among its creditors with laws like the Lock Law.

In early 2012, federal Judge Thomas P. Griesa of the Southern District of New York barred Argentina from making payments on the subsequently issued debt without paying what it owes to the holdouts. If Argentina pays the owners of the new debt 5% of what it owes them, it must also pay 5% of what is owed to the holdouts. When the new bonds are paid in full, the holdouts would be paid in full as well.


To enforce the court's judgment, Judge Griesa also allowed investors in Argentina's defaulted bonds to subpoena information from banks, including Bank of America Corp. BAC +0.12% and Banco de la Nacion Argentina, about where Argentina is stashing its assets around the world. Judge Griesa rightfully said that his decision rested upon "the public interest of enforcing contracts and upholding the rule of law," and he was upheld on appeal.

Argentina has appealed to the Supreme Court, and the Obama administration has taken its side. The U.S. Justice Department has argued that enforcing the terms of the agreement will make future debt restructurings more difficult and undermine the U.S.'s interest "in promoting reciprocal international principles of central bank immunity." Academics have also argued that enforcing Argentina's own contracts against it might undercut debt restructurings.

These arguments are bogus. Any country that wants to restructure in the way that Argentina is trying to do simply can decline to put equal-treatment clauses in their contracts.

The way to help sovereigns is by upholding the contracts they sign. By siding with Argentina's holdout creditors, U.S. courts are helping all borrowers achieve access to credit markets on competitive terms. If courts won't enforce the promises made by borrowers, investors won't lend to them or will insist on higher rates of interest as compensation for their increased risk in case of default.

History is littered with examples of governments that renege on their promises to investors. Holding them to their promises should be regarded as a victory for international law and norms.

In support of Judge Griesa, the Second Circuit Court of Appeals has said that "in New York, a bond is a contract" and the parties' dispute "presents a simple question of contract interpretation." In the world of business, actually enforcing the terms of contracts is the way to nurture markets and generate economic growth. The claim that sovereigns are not subject to the rule of law fails to recognize that if U.S. courts decline to enforce contracts, sovereign nations and corporate borrowers will be motivated to enter into contracts in places that will enforce them.

New York City remains the commercial capital of the world. Sophisticated parties around the world routinely specify that New York law as construed by New York judges should govern disputes in international agreements, even when no U.S. party is involved in the deal. It is the willingness of courts to hold people—and governments—to their promises that enables the city to retain its dominance. Indeed, that enables a free economy to operate. We can only hope the Supreme Court keeps that in mind.

Mr. Macey is a professor at the Yale Law School.

« Last Edit: April 21, 2014, 07:58:40 AM by Crafty_Dog » Logged
eskrimakombat
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« Reply #16 on: April 21, 2014, 08:10:27 AM »

Décimo Open Sparring en Rosario - Eskrima Kombat

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Nicolás
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« Reply #17 on: April 21, 2014, 10:13:40 PM »

Quote
Nicolas:

Por favor disculpe la tardanza en mi respuesta, pero yo estaba en Brazil y luego con fuerzas especiales de nuestro ejercito.

Quiero felicitarte el buen trabajo que tu gente y tu estan mostrando aqui'.

Mi comentario mas detallado se encuentrara' en el foro de la DBMA Association.

Guro Crafty

PD:  Me alegra muchisimo que Uds tuvieran la experiencia de entrenar con Lazy Dog.


Muchas gracias por sus palabras Guro!!

Nicolás
DBMA Argentina
www.dogbrothers.com.ar
« Last Edit: April 21, 2014, 10:21:06 PM by Nicolás » Logged
Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2014, 11:31:36 PM »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFT8lxf1PlQ
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Nicolás
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« Reply #19 on: May 24, 2014, 09:09:21 PM »

 ¡¡Muchas gracias Guro por colocar el link a nuestro ultimo video!!

 Les dejo a continuación dos videos más de sparring de nuestro grupo, el primero de Doble bastón, en donde intentamos seguir experimentando con Dos Triques. El segundo video es de Bastón y cuchillo/Espada y daga:



Doble bastón:




Bastón y cuchillo/ Espada y daga:




Nicolás Wachsmann
DBMA Argentina
www.dogbrothers.com.ar
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2014, 06:06:20 PM »


Analysis

The U.S. Supreme Court rejected a petition from the Argentine government June 16, effectively ending years of legal battles in U.S. courts. The decision not to hear Argentina's case means that a 2012 ruling by lower courts, which forced Argentina to pay holdout creditors, remains intact.

The decision by New York District Judge Thomas Griesa said that if Argentina intended to make payments to creditors holding bonds issued in 2005 and 2010, when it restructured its debt, it would have to pay the full value of bonds held by creditors who refused to renegotiate their bonds after the default, known as the holdouts.
Argentina's Declining Central Bank Reserves
Click to Enlarge

Of the original $95 billion default from Argentina's 2001-2002 economic crisis, a total of 93 percent of creditors participated in the previous debt restructures. Roughly $15 billion, a sum that includes estimated interest, remains in default. At stake in this court case is $1.3 billion worth of debt held by a group of holdouts led by NML Capital. Argentina might be able to settle the $1.3 billion in one payment, but with only $28 billion in foreign exchange stored at the Central Bank, it cannot afford to pay the $15 billion owed to all holdout creditors at once.

Nevertheless, Argentina has recently showed a renewed interest in regaining access to international credit markets, and a May deal with the Paris Club paved the way to renewed lending from sovereign institutions. A settlement with the holdouts would go a long way to restoring Argentina's reputation, and a deal of some kind seems increasingly likely.

Argentina has three options. The first option is to refuse to pay, which would trigger an automatic default on debt payments owed to bondholders who participated in the 2005 and 2010 restructuring. The second option is to comply fully with the district court ruling and pay NML and its partners $1.3 billion immediately. This option would open Argentina up to being sued by the bondholders who previously restructured because they are entitled to claim any better terms voluntarily offered by Argentina to other holdout creditors up until the end of 2014. The third option would have Argentina reach an agreement with NML Capital to settle its debts, but not until 2015, when Argentina would not have to pay out the terms of the new agreement to bondholders who had settled earlier. We consider the third option the most likely one.

Read more: U.S. Supreme Court Rejects Argentine Petition | Stratfor
Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook
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captainccs
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« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2014, 08:20:41 PM »

Argentina President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has just finished speaking. She made it clear that Argentina wants to pay their debts - pointing out their settlements with Repsol and the Paris Club -- but that they will not give in to the "extortion" of the holdouts (She used the word "extortion" many times, which may set it up for a good drinking game going forward).

Fernandez de Kirchner says Argentina will make the $900 million debt payment on June 30, which leaves those funds open for NML, Elliot and Singer and the holdouts to enforce Federal District Judge Thomas Griesa's pari passu payment orders and sieze the money causing a default once the stay is lifted (which is imminent).  Fernandez de Kirchner did not say what Argentina would do if those funds are frozen or siezed.

She repeated Argentina's stance that the holdouts should accept the exchange and accused them of "extortion", trying to make 1,608% returns on the bonds they bought in 2008, that holdout claims would reach $15 billion if Argentina complied, representing more than 50% of Argentina's reserves.

In short, Argentina's plan seems to be to let a default occur blaming it on the holdouts enforcing their order and then deal with the fallout afterwards.   Possibly by setting up the domestic payment program as elicited in the Cleary Gottleib recommendations I sent you earlier.


Received via email
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Denny Schlesinger
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« Reply #22 on: June 28, 2014, 06:59:34 PM »

 U.S. Court Ruling Creates Dilemma For Argentine Government
Analysis
June 27, 2014 | 1505 Print Text Size
U.S. Court Ruling Creates Dilemma For Argentine Government
Attorney for Argentina Carmine Bocuzzi (C) arrives at court for a hearing June 27 in New York. (DON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary

The Argentine government found itself in New York District Court on June 27. At stake is whether U.S. courts can force Argentina to default on debt payments owed to the various bondholders who accepted 2005 and 2010 reductions on their Argentine sovereign debt holdings. The ruling could lead to economic hardship in Argentina, creating opportunities for international actors to lend their support, therefore extending their influence in the region.
Analysis

The government in Argentina is currently not willing to make payment on the full $1.3 billion face value of bonds that it defaulted on during the 2001-2002 economic crisis, an amount that would also include interest. This is the amount at issue in the current court case, which follows a June 12 decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to allow rulings by New York District Court Judge Thomas Griesa to stand. Griesa's decision was based on language in the original bonds that requires equal treatment of bondholders, necessitating Argentina to make payments to the holdouts if the government makes any payments to debt holders. It also permits the holdout bondholders to use court resources to identify Argentine financial assets and freeze them if Argentina does not comply.

Argentina was scheduled to make a June 30 payment set at $900 million, an amount the Argentine government is prepared to pay. Buenos Aires is eager to make payments to the group of exchange bondholders who agreed to the 2005 and 2010 restructuring, but is unwilling to issue immediate, full payment to all of the holdouts. The government has already apparently made an effort to avoid the court ruling and proceed with the June 30 payments by transferring hundreds of millions of dollars into trusteeships with international banks, including $539 million to the Bank of New York Mellon.

Through these deposits, Argentina seeks to demonstrate its willingness to pay exchange bondholders. Judge Griesa, however, ordered Bank of New York Mellon to reject the funds, mandating that they remain in Argentina and asserting that the country must continue negotiations with holdouts. It is likely that Argentina will enter technical default June 30, although this is cushioned by a 30-day grace period.

The impact of this default will be different for Argentina this time. Buenos Aires is not actively issuing debts and the U.S. Supreme Court decision is already impacting the Argentine stock market and secondary market trades of Argentine debt. Argentina's economic situation is fragile, and a further loss of confidence could spur additional capital flight, with negative implications for the value of the Argentine peso. Indeed, the black market rate for the peso is already falling and additional drops in demand could push the government to devalue the currency more steeply.

The dangers of paying the holdouts, however, are more troubling to Argentina than the risk of a default. The debt in the hands of the holdouts involved in the New York court case represent only a fraction of what the government owes in principal and interest -- $1.5 billion out of a $15 billion total. And these holdouts are spread across the globe and include creditors in Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom among others. Argentina currently holds around $29 billion in foreign currency reserves, meaning payment in full would be theoretically possible, although it would leave foreign exchange dangerously low given ongoing balance of payment challenges. On top of this, there is a risk that the bondholders who agreed to the 2005 and 2010 bond exchange will then sue Argentina for the full amount of the original bonds based on a clause in the exchange bonds that allows them to do so through 2014. This means that Argentina must delay any kind of settlement with holdouts until at least 2015.

Nevertheless, Argentina will have to pay the holdouts eventually. Declining exports mean that the country is facing a real danger of a financial crisis as foreign reserves decline. In order to manage this risk, Argentina is working to resuscitate its energy sector to mitigate the financial impact of imports, hoping to return to net-exporter status. This, however, will take years if not decades. In the meantime, Argentina will need access to international credit markets, although not at the cost of liquidating half of its foreign reserves to pay off the holdouts. The most likely way that Argentina will navigate this dilemma is to delay making a final settlement of its debts.

The U.S. court rulings are unlikely to have significant political impact within Argentina. Although the dispute may cause further economic tension, no party has an interest in using this issue as leverage to unseat the current government. Elections are approaching in 2015 and President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has reached her term limit. Opposition politicians are currently in the early stages of building alliances and strategizing for these pivotal elections -- they do not want the chaos that would accompany the fall of Fernandez' government. General opinion in Argentine political circles is that U.S. courts have acted unusually harshly in dealing with Argentina's default, and that the United States has overstepped its bounds, making it unlikely that the Fernandez government will be blamed for any economic repercussions.

The court case will likely increase tensions in U.S.-Argentine relations. The ruling has already led a number of international players, including Brazil, Russia and the United Nations, to voice concern about the ultimate effects of default on Argentina. As the case progresses, more opportunities could arise for foreign players to express support both rhetorically and concretely. Russian President Vladimir Putin has already announced that he will meet with Fernandez in Buenos Aires in July while he is in the region for the sixth annual BRICS Summit in Brazil, where further support for Argentina's position could be forthcoming.

Read more: U.S. Court Ruling Creates Dilemma For Argentine Government | Stratfor
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