Egypt

[ccp]

The sale to Egypt of this military equipment while Egyptians go hungry can only be seen as a signal from Obama to Netanyahu:

"you don't run this show, I am the one who calls the shots and the one who says when where and if."

More pressure against Bibi not to attack unilaterally.

What else can this mean?

[Crafty_Dog]

 MATT BRADLEY
CAIRO—Dozens of people were killed as violence engulfed cities across Egypt for the second straight day Saturday, challenging Egypt's police and military to contain mounting lawlessness on a national scale.

At least 26 people were killed and nearly 300 were injured in rioting in the coastal city of Port Said on Saturday after a Cairo court sentenced 21 people to death for their role in a deadly soccer riot last February. Meanwhile, Friday's antigovernment riots in Cairo and other cities continued into early afternoon on Saturday, leaving at least 11 people dead, mostly in the impoverished coastal city of Suez.

The harsh verdict and back-to-back outbursts of violence have lent an air of desperation to Egyptian politics just as the country marked the second anniversary of a revolution that ended the 30-year rule of former President Hosni Mubarak and ushered in a two-year period of political instability.

The bloody street fights throughout the country often involve angry youth and have become a routine feature of Egypt's fraught transition to democracy.   But this latest flare-up comes amid profound political divisions, an imminent economic crisis and months ahead of expected parliamentary elections that threaten to accelerate the country's plunge into instability.

The weekend's rallies showed that many Egyptians continue to view the street-level protests and violence—not the ballot box—as the surest way to express their political will.  The general focus of rage is President Mohammed Morsi's Islamist government, who his secular opponents complain has brought little real change, particularly to a police force that remains incapable of containing mass demonstrations.

"When we call for the reform of the security sector and the security sector refuses this call, it leads to things like Port Said," said Khaled Fahmy, a political analyst and history professor at the American University in Cairo. "When we say that the security sector has to be reformed, this is exactly what we mean."

Adding to the political confusion as the death toll mounted, the National Salvation Front, the umbrella political group that represents opponents to Egypt's Islamist-backed presidency, issued a statement announcing that they would boycott the parliamentary vote unless Mr. Morsi devolved power to his opponents and amended the constitution.

Mr. Morsi cancelled a scheduled trip to Ethiopia and deployed Egypt's military in Suez and Port Said. In Port Said, hundreds of relatives and friends of the convicted defendants tried to breach prison walls to spring the convicts from jail.

The 21 people sentenced to death on Saturday were among 73 defendants, including several police officers, accused of participating in one of the world's deadliest soccer riots. Rulings for the rest of the defendants will be read on March 9. The verdict for the 21 announced Saturday isn't final—the defendants are almost certain to appeal and the head of Al Azhar, a government-managed Islamic university, must first accept or reject the capital sentences.

The head of Al Azhar has historically served a rubber-stamp religious role, and he is likely to approve the judge's decision.

Egyptian soccer hooligans, known here as Ultras, have been demonstrating in Cairo for the past week in anticipation of the court verdict over the alleged murder of 74 soccer fans during a stadium riot last February.  Ultras backing the Port Said-based Al Masry team rushed the pitch following their win over the Cairo-based Al Ahly team. The ensuing melee saw dozens of Al Ahly fans suffocate while trying to leave the stadium. Others were tossed from the bleachers or slashed with knives.

Ultras supporting Al Ahly dubbed the incident a massacre and blamed Egypt's police for the deaths. The soccer fans accused the ministry of interior of doing little to stop the violence as part of a decade-long vendetta between soccer hooligans and the police.

Others said police deliberately orchestrated the attack.

"They are to blame for derelection of duty and the murders happened under their watch," said Mahmoud Adel, a member of the Al Ahly fan club committee who was at the game last year. Mr. Adel said thousands of Al Ahly fans erputed into cheers and applause at the Al Ahly club in Cairo when the decision was read.

"It's a strong verdict, but what happened deserves an even stronger verdict," he said.

A Port Said resident and lawyer of one of the defendants given a death sentence said the verdict was nothing more than "a political decision to calm the public.  There is nothing to say these people did anything and we don't understand what this verdict is based on," Mohammed al-Daw told the Associated Press. "Kids were taken from their homes for wearing green T-shirts," he said, referring to the Al Masry team color

The court's ruling in the Port Said case came a day after protesters descended on city squares across Egypt on Friday to mark the second anniversary of the revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak's 30-year autocracy and to press their demands against Egypt's Islamist leadership.

The Muslim Brotherhood and its conservative Islamist allies have dominated every national vote since Mr. Mubarak stepped down. In statements this week, the Brotherhood championed Egypt's "glorious revolution" but warned of the "evil forces of darkness [who] desperately endeavor to spoil the celebration [by] spreading chaos and terror across the country."

In a statement on his official Twitter account, Mr. Morsi expressed his sympathy for the deaths of protesters and police officers in Suez and vowed to pursue those responsible.

In Egypt's capital, marchers converged Friday from across the city onto Tahrir Square, the nerve center of the 2011 revolution. Demonstrators chanted anti-Islamist slogans.

"This is not a memory or a memorial," said Sayyid Gouda, a 36-year-old accountant who was wearing a gas mask around his neck as he gazed out on the crowds on the square. "This is a new wave of the revolution to restore our country."

In condemning the Muslim Brotherhood, which exercises expansive control over Egypt's government, Mr. Gouda and other activists drew from the same lexicon of resistance that defined the uprising two years ago. President Morsi and his Brotherhood backers are "fascists" who should be imprisoned for trying to take over Egypt and turn it into an Islamist state, Mr. Gouda said.

Though many of the tens of thousands of demonstrators were peaceful, according to televised images of the protests, dozens of rock-throwing youth laid seige to the Brotherhood's headquarters in the Nile Delta cities of Ismailia and Damanhour, according to the state news agency.

For the second time this week, assailants armed with Molotov cocktails attacked the offices of the Brotherhood's website in downtown Cairo, the Brotherhood reported on the site.

Friday's protests saw the first major appearance of a new group of masked protesters calling themselves the "Black Block," after a protest strategy historically associated with the violent European anarchist movement. Sporting black clothing and concealing black face-masks, members of the group were responsible for blocking a tramway in the coastal city of Alexandria to make way for protesters and clashed with police in front of the presidential palace in Cairo, state media said.

The apparently loosely affiliated new group swore on its unofficial Facebook FB +1.48%page to shield antigovernment protesters from Brotherhood thugs.

[G M]

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/01/27/egyptian-path-darkens/

January 27, 2013


Egyptian Path Darkens


[UPDATED to reflect breaking news]
 
The situation in Egypt continues to darken; President Morsi has just declared a state of emergency and announced a curfew in three provinces following widespread riots. Hundreds of Egyptians have hit the streets in recent days to protest against President Mohamed Morsi and the death sentence handed down to 21 people for rioting at a soccer match. Forty-five people have died since the protests began on Thursday. Reuters reports:
 

Three people were shot dead and hundreds were injured in Egypt’s Port Said on Sunday during the funerals of 33 protesters killed at the weekend in the city.
 
Gunshots had killed many of the 33 who died on Saturday when residents went on the rampage after a court sentenced 21 people, mostly from the Mediterranean port, to death for their role in deadly soccer violence at a stadium there last year.
 
Elsewhere in Egypt, police fired teargas at dozens of stone-throwing protesters in Cairo in a fourth day of clashes over what demonstrators there and in other cities say is a power grab by Islamists two years after Hosni Mubarak was overthrown.
 
Egypt’s recent struggles are often portrayed as a conflict between Islamists in the Muslim Brotherhood and the liberal groups in the Cairo street. But while the MSM has given much attention to the Muslim Brotherhood’s increasing infringement on civil liberties, the truth is that these policies, while important, will not determine the future of Egyptian politics. This latest wave of violence and those that are certain to follow, stems largely from the sorry state of the Egyptian economy.
 
Most Egyptians these days are poor, unemployed, and frustrated with both the current and the past leadership of the country. And since the beginning of the Arab Spring, Egypt has seen its currency plummet as investors flee. Unless these trends are reversed, the restlessness and violence is only likely to get worse.
 
The latest outbreak of violence and the draconian measures now being taken to contain it only highlight the reality that neither Egypt’s government, its liberal opposition or its military guardians have any idea what to do. So far, Egypt hasn’t really seen a revolution. It’s seen faction-fighting and a change of regime, but society itself remains largely unchanged. Will that persist as the Muslim Brotherhood government is seen increasingly as unable to solve the country’s problems? It is much too soon to tell, but the government of Egypt is not standing on solid ground.

[Crafty_Dog]

Maybe things will go better if we give the military some fighter jets , , ,

[Crafty_Dog]

Egypt Army Chief Fears State Collapse .
CAIRO—Egypt's army chief warned on Tuesday that the state could collapse if the latest political crisis roiling the nation drags on, but also defended the right of people to protest.

Troops deployed in the two riot-torn Suez Canal cities of Port Said and Suez stood by and watched on Monday night as thousands took to the streets in direct defiance of a night curfew and a state of emergency declared by the president a day earlier. Residents of those two cities and Ismailiya, a third city also under the emergency, marched through the streets just as the curfew came into force at 9 p.m.

The display of contempt for the president's decision was tantamount to an outright rebellion that many worried could spread to other parts of the country. Already, protesters across much of Egypt are battling police, cutting off roads and railway lines, and besieging government offices and police stations as part of a growing revolt against the rule of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood group.

At least 60 people have been killed since Friday.

Mr. Morsi's opponents protest that Islamists have monopolized power and not lived up to the ideals of the pro-democracy uprising that ousted authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak nearly two years ago.

"The continuation of the conflict between the different political forces and their differences over how the country should be run could lead to the collapse of the state and threaten future generations," said the army chief, Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, who is both head of the military and defense minister.

The warning was the military's first public comment since the latest crisis erupted last week around the second anniversary of the uprising. Mr. el-Sissi was speaking to military academy cadets and the comments were posted on the armed forces' official Facebook page.

On Sunday night, Mr. Morsi ordered the army to restore order in the Suez Canal cities of Port Said and Suez and slapped a 30-day state of emergency and night curfew on the two cities, as wells as Ismailiya. The army hasn't deployed in Ismailiya, however, which has seen little of the deadly violence flaring in the other two cities.

On Tuesday, tanks were fanned out on the streets of Port Said, a strategic city of some 600,000 located 140 miles northeast of Cairo on the Mediterranean coast and at the tip of the Suez Canal. New funerals were held for six more of those killed in clashes, with thousands marching and chanting against Mr. Morsi.

"Erhal! Erhal!" or "Leave, leave!" the mourners chanted.

The military is Egypt's most powerful institution and was the de facto ruler since a 1952 coup by army officers seized power and later toppled the monarchy. Generals forced Mr. Mubarak from power at the end of the uprising and then a ruling military council took over from him.

Their nearly 17 months in power that followed tainted the military's reputation, with critics charging the ruling generals of mismanaging the transition to democratic rule, human rights violations and hauling thousands of civilians before military tribunals.

Mr. Morsi became the first freely elected and civilian president in June and was immediately plunged into a power struggle with the military when it tried to curtail his powers. Two months after he took office, he ordered the retirement of the country's top two generals, regained powers the generals had taken away from him and handpicked Mr. el-Sissi as defense minister and army chief.

The timing of Mr. el-Sissi's warning is particularly significant because it came as Mr. Morsi appears to have failed to stem the latest bout of political violence as the country sank deeper into chaos and lawlessness and opposition to Mr. Morsi grew.

Some of the demonstrators in Port Said on Monday night waved white-and-green flags they said were the colors of a new and independent state. Such secession would be unthinkable in Egypt, but the move underlined the depth of frustration in the city.

Mr. El-Sissi acknowledged the difficult challenges facing his troops in Port Said and Suez, and spoke of the "realistic threat" facing the nation as a result of what he called the political, economic and social challenges.

"The deployment of the armed forces poses a grave predicament for us insofar as how we balance avoiding confrontations with Egyptian citizens, their right to protest and the protection and security of vital facilities that impact Egypt's national security," he said.

Since coming to office nearly seven months ago, Mr. Morsi has failed to tackle the country's massive problems, which range from an economy in free fall to surging crime, chaos on the streets and lack of political consensus. His woes deepened when the main opposition coalition turned down his offer for a dialogue to resolve the crisis, insisting that he meets their conditions first.

The wave of unrest has touched cities across much of the country since Thursday, including Cairo, the three Suez Canal cities, Alexandria on the Mediterranean in the north and a string of cities in the Nile Delta.

The violence accelerated Friday, the second anniversary of the start of the uprising, with protests to mark the event turned to clashes around the country that left 11 dead, most of them in Suez.

The next day, riots exploded in Port Said after a court convicted and sentenced to death 21 defendants—mostly locals—for a mass soccer riot in the city's main stadium a year ago. Rioters attacked police stations, clashed with security forces in the streets and shots and tear gas were fired at protester funerals in mayhem that left 44 people dead over the weekend.

[G M]

Egypt Army Chief Fears State Collapse .
CAIRO—Egypt's army chief warned on Tuesday that the state could collapse if the latest political crisis roiling the nation drags on, but also defended the right of people to protest.

Troops deployed in the two riot-torn Suez Canal cities of Port Said and Suez stood by and watched on Monday night as thousands took to the streets in direct defiance of a night curfew and a state of emergency declared by the president a day earlier. Residents of those two cities and Ismailiya, a third city also under the emergency, marched through the streets just as the curfew came into force at 9 p.m.

The display of contempt for the president's decision was tantamount to an outright rebellion that many worried could spread to other parts of the country. Already, protesters across much of Egypt are battling police, cutting off roads and railway lines, and besieging government offices and police stations as part of a growing revolt against the rule of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood group.

At least 60 people have been killed since Friday.

Mr. Morsi's opponents protest that Islamists have monopolized power and not lived up to the ideals of the pro-democracy uprising that ousted authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak nearly two years ago.

"The continuation of the conflict between the different political forces and their differences over how the country should be run could lead to the collapse of the state and threaten future generations," said the army chief, Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, who is both head of the military and defense minister.

The warning was the military's first public comment since the latest crisis erupted last week around the second anniversary of the uprising. Mr. el-Sissi was speaking to military academy cadets and the comments were posted on the armed forces' official Facebook page.

On Sunday night, Mr. Morsi ordered the army to restore order in the Suez Canal cities of Port Said and Suez and slapped a 30-day state of emergency and night curfew on the two cities, as wells as Ismailiya. The army hasn't deployed in Ismailiya, however, which has seen little of the deadly violence flaring in the other two cities.

On Tuesday, tanks were fanned out on the streets of Port Said, a strategic city of some 600,000 located 140 miles northeast of Cairo on the Mediterranean coast and at the tip of the Suez Canal. New funerals were held for six more of those killed in clashes, with thousands marching and chanting against Mr. Morsi.

"Erhal! Erhal!" or "Leave, leave!" the mourners chanted.

The military is Egypt's most powerful institution and was the de facto ruler since a 1952 coup by army officers seized power and later toppled the monarchy. Generals forced Mr. Mubarak from power at the end of the uprising and then a ruling military council took over from him.

Their nearly 17 months in power that followed tainted the military's reputation, with critics charging the ruling generals of mismanaging the transition to democratic rule, human rights violations and hauling thousands of civilians before military tribunals.

Mr. Morsi became the first freely elected and civilian president in June and was immediately plunged into a power struggle with the military when it tried to curtail his powers. Two months after he took office, he ordered the retirement of the country's top two generals, regained powers the generals had taken away from him and handpicked Mr. el-Sissi as defense minister and army chief.

The timing of Mr. el-Sissi's warning is particularly significant because it came as Mr. Morsi appears to have failed to stem the latest bout of political violence as the country sank deeper into chaos and lawlessness and opposition to Mr. Morsi grew.

Some of the demonstrators in Port Said on Monday night waved white-and-green flags they said were the colors of a new and independent state. Such secession would be unthinkable in Egypt, but the move underlined the depth of frustration in the city.

Mr. El-Sissi acknowledged the difficult challenges facing his troops in Port Said and Suez, and spoke of the "realistic threat" facing the nation as a result of what he called the political, economic and social challenges.

"The deployment of the armed forces poses a grave predicament for us insofar as how we balance avoiding confrontations with Egyptian citizens, their right to protest and the protection and security of vital facilities that impact Egypt's national security," he said.

Since coming to office nearly seven months ago, Mr. Morsi has failed to tackle the country's massive problems, which range from an economy in free fall to surging crime, chaos on the streets and lack of political consensus. His woes deepened when the main opposition coalition turned down his offer for a dialogue to resolve the crisis, insisting that he meets their conditions first.

The wave of unrest has touched cities across much of the country since Thursday, including Cairo, the three Suez Canal cities, Alexandria on the Mediterranean in the north and a string of cities in the Nile Delta.

The violence accelerated Friday, the second anniversary of the start of the uprising, with protests to mark the event turned to clashes around the country that left 11 dead, most of them in Suez.

The next day, riots exploded in Port Said after a court convicted and sentenced to death 21 defendants—mostly locals—for a mass soccer riot in the city's main stadium a year ago. Rioters attacked police stations, clashed with security forces in the streets and shots and tear gas were fired at protester funerals in mayhem that left 44 people dead over the weekend.

Maybe things will go better if we give the military some fighter jets , , ,

[Crafty_Dog]

http://www.investigativeproject.org/3898/there-he-goes-again-egypt-morsi-stuns-us-senators

[G M]

http://www.investigativeproject.org/3898/there-he-goes-again-egypt-morsi-stuns-us-senators

What you islamiphobes don't get is that Morsi is just the arab world's Don Rickles. When he calls Jews the descendants of apes and pigs, it's out of love.

[For_Crafty_Dog]

[Crafty_Dog]

Summary

Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi on Aug. 12 announced the retirement of the country's top five officers from military service. Defense Minister and head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi and army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Sami Annan were both given top civilian posts as advisers to the president, while the air and naval chiefs along with the air defense chief were also retired from service and given top civilian positions. Second-tier commanders took over from the retired officers, while unconfirmed reports in Egyptian media suggest that the deputies of the promoted commanders have taken over the posts vacated by their superiors.
 

The military needs to secure its influence in the new political system in which the president is no longer drawn exclusively from the armed forces, which had been the case in Egypt since Lt. Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser established the modern Egyptian republic through a military coup in 1952. It is also grappling with internal tensions due to younger officers' frustrations over a lack of opportunity for promotion. The president's move may have partially addressed both issues. Given that the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces had heavily circumscribed Morsi's powers just before the June presidential election, it is unlikely his decision was a unilateral one, and it may have been made in cooperation with the ambitious younger members of the armed forces to nudge out the aging military leadership.
 


Analysis
 
Egypt's second- and third-tier commanders and the general staff officer corps have for some time been displeased with the top brass's refusal to relinquish posts and allow those below a chance at promotion. Indeed, Stratfor sources in Cairo said resentment reached an all-time high after the 2011 uprising against former President Hosni Mubarak and has not subsided. The internal schisms have received little attention amid the larger struggle between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood for control of Egypt, but the recent retirements, promotions and reassignments suggest that an internal restructuring within the military was also under way.
 






.
 

Tantawi has been at the helm of the military establishment since the 1990s. He gave no indication that he intended to retire, and it is unlikely that his or the others' retirements were purely voluntary. Instead, they likely came as a result of pressure from subordinates who charge that the professionalism of the military as an institution is harmed when the normal flow of promotions is disrupted and aging generals remain at the helm for too long.
 
The retirements and promotions come at a time when the military is searching for a new arrangement that will preserve its authority now that the country has moved away from the single-party model to a multi-party one with competitive elections. The military has always wanted to resume ruling from behind the scenes and leave day-to-day matters of governance to civil authorities, and the new civilian assignments for the now-retired generals will likely be the conduit through which the defense establishment maintains its oversight of the political system.
 
In addition to Tantawi and Annan, who were made presidential advisers, the former air force chief will become the head of military production. Likewise, the former naval chief has reportedly been named head of the Suez Canal Authority, an important revenue-generating asset for the country, and the former air defense chief was named chairman of the Arab Organization for Industrialization, a military development group. Under this arrangement, the military can go back to operating key state institutions through retired commanders, as was the case under Anwar Sadat and Mubarak. Unlike previous times, however, these commanders will be working with a president whose background is in the Muslim Brotherhood, not the military. Furthermore, these three appointments show that the defense establishment will be able to continue to dominate the country's economic sector.
 
Since Mubarak's ouster and the beginning of Egypt's political transition, the Muslim Brotherhood's efforts to assert its power have repeatedly been countermanded by the military, and Morsi's decree could similarly be reversed. However, Tantawi reportedly consented to the move, and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces released a statement saying the shifts were settled via negotiation between the president and the military, indicating the military will not directly challenge the moves.
 
Under the new arrangement, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces remains powerful, but its composition and leadership have changed. Sensing an opening, Morsi has already issued presidential orders beyond what may have been agreed upon with the military. Morsi canceled a June 17 constitutional addendum issued by the ruling council and amended the constitutional declaration issued on March 30, 2011, with one that grants him full executive and judicial authority as well as the power to set all public policies in Egypt and sign international treaties. The declaration also gives Morsi the right to form a new constituent assembly tasked with drafting an Egyptian Constitution should any future developments prevent the current assembly from carrying out its responsibilities.
 
These presidential orders have not been implemented, and the judiciary or the military is likely to block them from ever being enacted just as they have done with previous initiatives intended to empower the legislature or the president. While Morsi may have achieved a symbolic victory in removing long-serving members of the former Mubarak regime from their military posts, the military had its own reasons for going along with the moves -- reasons that are intended to increase, not reduce, the military's influence over the civilian government. Furthermore, Morsi is unlikely to exercise unencumbered authority any time soon, especially with the new constitution, which will likely limit the powers of the president, being drafted.
.

Read more: Egypt's Evolving Civil-Military Relations | Stratfor

[G M]

http://pjmedia.com/barryrubin/2013/02/26/who-will-the-muslim-brotherhood-heed-allah-or-tom-friedman-and-such-people-no-contest/?singlepage=true

Who Will the Muslim Brotherhood Heed: Allah or Tom Friedman (and such people)? No Contest

February 26th, 2013 - 10:16 am



Sigh. I really don’t want to write this article, but we have too good a case study of contemporary Western foreign policy reporting, debate, and elite attitudes toward international affairs to ignore. Doing a better job here is vital, as this task involves the fate of millions of people, matters of war and peace, the most basic interests of the United States, and the decency of intellectual discourse.
 
I refer, of course, to Thomas L. Friedman’s latest effort: “The Belly Dancing Barometer.” (Tens of millions of lives are at stake — that’s worth a flippant title and goofy concept, right?)

 


Friedman writes:
 

Since the start of the 2011 revolution in Tahrir Square, every time the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood faced a choice of whether to behave in an inclusive way or grab more power, true to its Bolshevik tendencies it grabbed more power and sacrificed inclusion. [President] Morsi’s power grab will haunt him.
 
The Brotherhood needs to understand that its version of political Islam — which is resistant to women’s empowerment and religious and political pluralism — might be sustainable if you are Iran or Saudi Arabia, and you have huge reserves of oil and gas to buy off all the contradictions between your ideology and economic growth. But if you are Egypt, you need to be as open to the world and modernity as possible to unleash all of the potential for growth.
 
So, let me get this straight.
 
Friedman is saying that you cannot trust the Brotherhood, as it seeks total power and is anti-democratic.
 
Hmm: what’s Friedman been saying the last two years? Well, he has been an apologist for the Brotherhood, a cheerleader for the course taken by the “Arab Spring,” and has constantly insisted that the “democratic” revolution is going well. Indeed, in January 2012 I wrote an analysis of Friedman’s coverage titled: “Friedman Cheers as Egyptians are Enslaved.”
 
Now, when it’s too late? Friedman is supposedly outraged to see what’s going on there.
 
Now, he concludes that the Egyptian regime is not democratic at all.
 
However, he draws no conclusions about how U.S. policy should change to adjust for his discovery. Does Friedman now favor — as he hints in the article — using real pressure on Egypt if the regime continues to be repressive at home? Will he criticize Obama for not doing so?
 
If Mursi [I'll stick with my transliteration] has “Bolshevik tendencies,” might that not also lead to his doing something nasty to U.S. interests?
 
It’s like identifying a mass murderer, and then asking him “Do you really think you can get away with this without a vast criminal organization behind you?”, rather than hollering: “Help! Police! There’s a mass murderer over there!”
 
On top of that, Friedman uses that “needs to understand” phrase, so beloved by editorialists but totally absurd when dealing with dictators. Well, what if they don’t understand, Mr. Friedman? How about saying:
 

Herr Hitler needs to understand that he cannot conquer the whole world. Germany lacks the economic base to do so.
 
Also, do we now believe in economic determinism? Was the USSR sustainable? Can you imagine someone writing this in 1917 about the Bolsheviks?
 

Mr. Lenin needs to understand that the Soviet Union [yes, I know it wasn't founded until several years later, but I'm trying to make a point here -- BR] should abandon its Bolshevik tendencies because it will never work out.
 
Sure, the Soviet Union failed. But it took almost 75 years, and tens of millions died as a result.
 
And since when did a Middle Eastern radical dictatorship — even one that was elected — put economic pragmatism ahead of seeking its goals: the PLO or Palestinian Authority? Saddam Hussein? Gamal Abdel Nasser?
 
Has the Iranian government dropped their nuclear weapons program because of economic sanctions?
 
Arguably, one such leader did bow to economic necessity to moderate. His name was Anwar al-Sadat, and now his regime — under Sadat’s successor, Mubarak — is the villain for America and the West.
 
Note that Friedman never says: President Obama needs to understand that he cannot trust this Muslim Brotherhood regime, should see it as a threat to U.S. interests, and must work to undermine it.
 
Moreover, is Friedman correct, and Mursi wrong? Is the world really going to cut off the money to Egypt if it keeps getting more Islamist? Will the U.S. insist the IMF stop aiding the Egyptian regime, or even … stop sending it free weapons?
 

Aide: “President Obama! The Muslim Brotherhood is grabbing more power and not being inclusionary!”
 
Obama: “Jumping Saul Alinsky! We must cut off aid at once! Then he’ll learn that he must be open to the world in order to unleash Egypt’s potential for growth!”
 
But wait! Egypt doesn’t have a potential for economic growth. It isn’t going to happen. The country has too many people and not enough resources. What if Mursi knows that Egypt isn’t going to be the new China, with shining cities of high rises, factories pumping out consumer durables for export, and so on?
 
If he knows that there is no real chance for economic prosperity … maybe that is why he follows the policies he does! Might it be that Mursi knows more about Egypt than Friedman, or even Obama?
 
Perhaps Mursi could intimidate or blackmail those with oil and gas, as his predecessor Gamal Abdel Nasser did. And, after all, the Arab nationalists faced precisely the same problem as Mursi does, and yet stayed in office for 60 years. Yes, they had the USSR, but that hardly gave a lot of economic aid. Why can’t the Islamists run Egypt for the next 60 years?
 

Aide: “President Mursi! We must abandon Islamism! We can’t afford it!”
 
Mursi: “Oh well, I guess the IMF is more important than Allah. Mwa-ha-ha! Just kidding!”
 
If you know anything about societies like Egypt, you would understand that these societies have a lot of flexibility. People can get along with far less than in the West, and be a lot more passive in the face of suffering, because that’s the way they always had to live. This is a largely agricultural society. Some can go back to the villages, or be sustained by extended families, or tighten their belts. They have low expectations. And the “Arab Spring” has not changed that fact, at least for a majority. What proportion of the Egyptian public participated in those romanticized events before the Mubarak regime was overthrown in 2011? Say, 100,000 out of a population of 70 million?
 
And many of them were Muslim Brotherhood cadre.
 
The Egyptian people also know they face repression, and they have a deeply embedded ideology to comfort them and to drive them onward. And why are they so poor and miserable? It’s not Mursi, but America, the West, Israel, and now even the Saudis who are blamed for their suffering. Obviously, not everyone is going to believe this, but enough will — or will get bopped upside the head — to keep the regime in power. Wait until you see what’s going to happen in Syria as a new dictatorship takes control there as well.
 
The one ray of hope in Egypt is that there are now four Islamist parties: the Brotherhood, “moderates,” radical Salafi, and “moderate” (i.e., pro-regime) Salafi. If the democratic opposition wasn’t led by such a bunch of quarreling incompetent egomaniac politicians, there might actually be some hope of defeating Islamists in the parliamentary elections due in a few months.
 
This is all a tragedy for the poor victims in the Middle East, and a farce for the well-paid, much-honored careerist opportunists and ideologues in the West.
 
What’s so frustrating about this mess: not only are the policies so bad, not only is the permitted debate so narrow, but these people don’t even try to come up with logical arguments because they know they can get away with any old trash and still get applauded.

[Crafty_Dog]

Forgive the frivolous tangent, but shouldn't that be "WHOM will the MB heed?" 

[G M]

February 28, 2013


The Egypt Bomb Goes Tick Tick Tick



 
Egypt is set to explode, according to former Finance Minister Samir Radwan. Joblessness stands at 74 percent for people under 30, according to government figures. This figure is unlikely to improve, the FT reports:
 

“I expect unemployment to increase because there are no signs that the economy is picking up,” says Mr Radwan. “Already some 1,500 [business] establishments have shut down.”
 
President Mohamed Morsi announced last week that Parliamentary elections will be held in April, prompting an outcry from his liberal opponents. But neither the Muslim Brotherhood nor any other potential candidate has any viable plan to ease unemployment. This, really, is all one needs to know about Egypt.
 
The economy is in a meltdown. And the situation on the ground will only be exacerbated by the hordes of young people (under-30s make up an estimated 60 percent of Egypt’s population) unable to find work to pay for the rising costs of basic goods. Radwan is right, the time bomb in Egypt is ticking. There is nothing worse for an unstable country than a restive, and hungry, youth. The only question now is, when the explosion comes, what will rise from the debris?
 
[Update: An earlier version of this post mistakenly stated that 74 percent of Egyptians are unemployed, rather than jobless. This error has been corrected.]
 - See more at: http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/02/28/the-egypt-bomb-goes-tick-tick-tick/

[G M]

http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2013/0301/A-warning-to-John-Kerry-on-Middle-East-trip-Egypt-could-become-the-next-Iran

A warning to John Kerry on Middle East trip: Egypt could become the next Iran


Take note, Secretary of State John Kerry: Under the rule of Mohammad Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt is in danger of becoming a Sunni version of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The US must demand the protection of human rights and back rhetoric with action.

 By Nesreen Akhtarkhavari / March 1, 2013


Egypt's President Mohammed Morsi, right, embraces Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the 12th summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Cairo, Egypt Feb. 6. As US Secretary of State John Kerry visits Egypt this weekend, op-ed contributor Nesreen Akhtarkhavari warns: 'Just as the revolution in Iran was hijacked by the Shiite clergy in 1979, the Muslim Brotherhood is doing the same in Egypt now.'

As Secretary of State John Kerry heads to Egypt March 2 he should be wary of one concerning possibility: Under the rule of Mohammad Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt is in danger of becoming a Sunni version of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Opposition leaders’ refusal to meet with Mr. Kerry over what they perceive to be as unprincipled US support for Mr. Morsi should serve as a wake-up call and warning to Washington.

Morsi’s first step after winning the June 2012 presidential election was to create an alliance with other Islamic groups, and sideline seculars and liberals who could derail the establishment of a religious state. Next, he gave himself immunity from legal prosecution and managed to quickly hoard more power than deposed dictator Hosni Mubarak ever dreamed of having. After a number of maneuvers, Morsi pushed forward a constitution drafted mostly by Brotherhood members and their allies, ignoring the protests of secular opponents, Christians, women, and liberals against the discriminatory language and key articles placed in the new constitution.

The new constitution sets the legal ground for creating what could become an Islamic state. It restricts the role of the judicial and legislative branches and stipulates that laws and their interpretations are subject to Islamic jurisprudence. It further gives legal-oversight power on “matters related to the Islamic sharia” to Al-Azhar University, the oldest and highest Sunni religious institution in Egypt.


The new constitution and its wide implications for personal freedom and social justice should concern the international community. It explicitly recognizes only the three Abrahamic religions (Islam, Christianity, and Judaism), and leaves other minorities, such as those of the Baha’i faith, without meaningful constitutional protection. Strict adherence to the concept of apostasy prevents Muslims from changing their religion, a crime punishable by death. Blasphemy laws restrict freedom of expression, especially on religious matters, with retributions as severe as death for comments related to the prophet Mohammed or the Koran.

According to Sunni jurisprudence, women are subject to male guardianship under which their personal freedoms, social life, and career choices are severely restricted. This restriction is not banned under Egypt’s new constitution. And because the new constitution fails to set a minimum age for marriage and does not criminalize sexual trafficking of minors, children, especially girls, could be forced into marriages at the age of nine with the approval of their male guardians.

During the last three decades, Iran, under the control of the Islamic Shiite clergy, was transformed into a religious state with endless human rights violations. In most cases, the world stood by watching. Egypt is learning from the Iranian experience. If the political conditions in Egypt remain the same, Egypt could soon follow Iran’s footsteps.

In spite of the deep and highly politicized Sunni-Shiite divide, the Sunni-based Muslim Brotherhood doctrine recognizes Shiite Islam as a legitimate sect. Many Islamists in Egypt see their country as Iran’s equal Sunni counterpart and may perceive the collaboration between the two nations as another step toward Islamic world expansion.

With little regard to the controversy surrounding the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadeinejad’s recent visit to Egypt to participate in an Islamic summit, Morsi warmly welcomed him. He left the Sunni religious institution, Al-Azhar, and the flying shoe of a Syrian dissident to deliver condemnations of Iran’s Shiite expansion efforts in Arab-Sunni territories and their support of the Syrian regime. Meanwhile, Morsi negotiated with the Iranian president about ways to improve political collaboration and economic partnership. Recently, Egypt and Iran signed an agreement to foster tourism between the two countries.


It is important that the international community carefully watches this newly forged alliance and takes steps to prevent the repeat of the Iranian experience. This is not a call against Islam, but against the establishment of a theocratic state that practices a wide range of human right abuses with impunity, under the banner of religion.

It is not enough that world leaders such as Secretary Kerry make clear in their public discourse that such practices will not be tolerated, but the rhetoric should be reinforced in private talks to demonstrate seriousness. International investments and funds to support Egypt’s economy should continue to be conditioned upon implementation of the rule of law and protection of human rights.

International human rights and civic organizations should be diligent in supporting similar organizations in Egypt. Having a strong and active “third sector” is the only way to ensure that state abuse, torture, and imprisonment are widely reported and actions are taken to support the victims and their families, and to bring perpetrators, including the state, to account.

It is critical that international trade unions continue their support of Egyptian trade unions. The current religious state sees these unions as a threat to its dominance and is enacting laws to control their independence, operation, and right to assemble and protest.

Just like the revolution in Iran was hijacked by the Shiite clergy in 1979, the Muslim Brotherhood is doing the same in Egypt now.

Morsi and his government seem to have learned well from the Iranian regime about how to deal with opposition. The tens of thousands of disappointed activists, bloggers, seculars, liberals, trade union members, and frustrated Egyptians back in the streets in a “revolution of rage” calling for Morsi’s resignation, are brutally attacked, tortured, imprisoned, and killed as Iran did with the protestors of the Youth Green Movement in 2009.

There is a fine line between interference in domestic affairs and the responsibility of the world community toward the protection of human rights and individual freedoms. Kerry and the rest of the Obama administration must remember this.


Recognizing that only Egyptians can determine the type of government they want, the protection of the rights of minorities and individuals is a global responsibility that we all share as nations, organizations, and people.

Dr. Nesreen Akhtarkhavari is director of Arabic Studies and an assistant professor at DePaul University in Chicago. Her research focuses on Islamic law and minority and women’s rights. This piece was written in association with The OpEd Project, which seeks to expand the range of opinion voices.

[Crafty_Dog]

a) I do not believe I exagerate when I say that without US aid, Egypt is merely a couple of months from mass starvation.  Thus we have powerful leverage.  That said, if we combine the vote of the Salafist parties and the MB parties, what % of the vote was it?  Was it not a huge majority?  How do we make the case for the rights of minorities over the right of a large majority? 

I suppose one option is to say that in return for our money we need to see X, Y, and Z in the way of religious freedom (e.g. the Coptics) women's rights, minority political rights, freedom of speech, etc-- i.e. take it or leave it, it's up to you guys!  But exactly what happens then?  Does Morsi kow tow?  How would that play out?  What then happens to the alliance/uneasy balance of power between the Salafists and the MB?  How does the Egyptian street react?  Is chaos and anarchy and option?  Is this a good or a bad thing?

I am NOT arguing one way or the other here, merely raising what seem to me questions that must be thought about.

b) My sense of history on Iran may be a bit hazy, but the way I remember it is that the outpouring of support for Khomeni upon his return was extraordinary.  I do not remember a hijacking at all; I remember the people getting exactly what they thought they wanted.  Life is tough and it is tougher when you are stupid.   If anyone has a reputable summary of this period, please post it in the Iran thread.

[G M]

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/kerry-praises-egypts-version-democracy_705070.html

Kerry Praises Egypt's 'Version of the Democracy'


1:34 PM, Mar 4, 2013 • By JERYL BIER



Secretary of State John Kerry announced on Sunday the release of a quarter of a billion dollars in aid to Egypt. The Associated Press reports:
 

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday rewarded Egypt for President Mohammed Morsi's pledges of political and economic reforms by releasing $250 million in American aid to support the country's "future as a democracy."
 
Yet Kerry also served notice that the Obama administration will keep close watch on how Morsi, who came to power in June as Egypt's first freely elected president, honors his commitment and that additional U.S. assistance would depend on it.
 
The day before, the secretary of state hinted that the Obama administration was continuing to throw its weight behind Morsi in remarks at the Marriott Zamalek Hotel in Cairo. Kerry had meet with some opposition leaders on Saturday and a reporter apparently caught Kerry at his hotel after the meeting. There is a partial transcript of a reporter's impromptu question and Kerry's answer on the State Department's website [emphasis added]:
 

QUESTION: (In progress) heard his conversation with the opposition members. Did you hear anything from them that would suggest that they’re going to renounce their boycott of the election and actually take part?

 
SECRETARY KERRY: No, I heard very passionate people who are deeply committed to Egypt and to their version of the democracy that they fought for in their revolution. And I completely understand that. I wanted to hear from them. I explored their strategy and thoughts.
 
They’re deeply committed to human rights, to democracy, to freedom of expression, and to a real political process in which they feel they have a voice. America supports all of those things. And so listening to them was really important. There was a divergence of views in terms of the adamancy, but they all shared a sense that they needed to be more part of the process, more included, and they recognized the economic challenge, but they believe there’s also a need to fill the promise of democracy. And so do we. We believe that too.
 
There's no explanation of what Kerry meant by the remark.

[Crafty_Dog]

IMHO what happened here is subject to more than one interpretation.  It certainly is not a bad thing that SecState Kerry met with the opposition and said what he said in response to that question; it begins to stake out ground not previously in play.  $250M keeps Morsi on a short leash-- they will burn through that quickly enough-- and one doubts there will be much expression of indignation over Kerry's "internal meddling".

[bigdog]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-egypt-slides-toward-financial-ruin/2013/03/06/85974478-85e4-11e2-98a3-b3db6b9ac586_story.html?hpid=z3

From the article:

The economic facts are stark: Egypt’s official foreign-currency reserves in February were $13.5 billion, which would cover a little less than three months of imports. But U.S. officials say that accessible, liquid reserves total only $6 billion to $7 billion. Already, imports are harder to find, including the raw materials needed by Egyptian manufacturers. The Egyptian stock market tumbled 5 percent early this week, sensing danger ahead.

[bigdog]

Quoting:

A top Egyptian court Wednesday suspended parliamentary elections scheduled to begin on April 22. The Cairo Administrative Court said the electoral law must be reviewed by the Supreme Constitutional Court. Egypt's main opposition group, the National Salvation Front, had planned to boycott the elections, claiming the electoral law favored Islamists and demanding an overhaul to the Islamist-backed constitution. President Mohamed Morsi said it would respect the court's decision, which was another instance of confrontation between Egypt's prerevolutionary judiciary and the Islamist ruling party. The announcement came amid continued violence and turmoil in Port Said over death sentences issued over the 2012 football riots that killed 74 people. On Wednesday, Egypt's interior minister dismissed Port Said's security chief. Meanwhile, Egypt has backed away from making economic policy changes necessary to negotiate a $4.8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund. The delays have come just days after a visit from U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry during which he committed $250 million in assistance but urged political collaboration on economic reform.

[bigdog]

Announcing a Symposium and Webcast on
The Muslim Brotherhood And The West

A Panel Discussion sponsored by the
Foreign Policy Research Institute,
Al Mesbar Studies & Research Centre,
and the Reserve Officers Association

Wednesday, March 20, 2013
1:45 p.m. Registration; 2:00 – 4:00 p.m. Program ROA, One Constitution Avenue, NE, Washington, DC

Free and Open to the Public
Reservations required
Also available thru audio webcast/teleconference Register by email to: events@fpri.org or telephone: (215) 732-3774 x303

To register for webcast/teleconference only use this link:
https://cc.readytalk.com/r/uz0psms4njfh

FEATURING
Lorenzo Vidino, Senior Fellow, FPRI/Senior Fellow,
   Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich

Abdullah Bijad Alotibi, Journalist/Board of Advisors, Al Mesbar

Joseph Braude, Writer/Collaborating Researcher, Al Mesbar

Moderator: Tally Helfont, Managing Director of FPRI’s Program
   on the Middle East

Few observers foresaw the Arab Spring, but it should not have surprised anyone that the Islamist movements - the most organized movements in the Arab world - became the main beneficiaries of the turmoil that ensued. Islamism, in its gradualist and pragmatic approach embodied by the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots worldwide, seems ready to reap the rewards of its three decades-old decision to abandon violence and focus on grassroots activities. This monumental change has created many concerns among liberals, religious minorities and, more generally, all non-Islamists in the countries where Islamists have won. In addition, Arab states ruled by non-Islamist regimes have expressed concern. The former worry that Islamist ideology - even in its more contemporary, pragmatic form - remains deeply divisive and anti-democratic, often at odds with their values and interests. The latter believe that on foreign policy issues, most of the positions of various Brotherhood-inspired parties are on a collision course with the policies of established regimes in the region.

In association with Al Mesbar Studies and Research Centre (based in the United Arab Emirates), the Foreign Policy Research Institute has just published as an E-Book The West and the Muslim Brotherhood After the Arab Spring, edited by Lorenzo Vidino.
The book provides an overview of each of eight countries’ policies towards Islamism, including the United States, Britain, Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain, and Israel. In this program, Vidino highlights the key lessons of the volume, and comment is offered by Abdullah Bijad Alotibi and Joseph Braude.

Download E-Book:
http://www.fpri.org/articles/2013/02/west-and-muslim-brotherhood-after-arab-spring

E-Book
Table Of Contents

* Introduction, Lorenzo Vidino

* U.S. Policy and the Muslim Brotherhood, Steven Brooke

* Between ‘Engagement’ and a ‘Values-Led’ Approach: Britain and the Muslim Brotherhood from 9/11 to the Arab Spring, Martyn Frampton & Shiraz Maher

* Canada and the Arab Islamists: Plus Ça Change, Alex Wilner

* Political Islam According to the Dutch, Roel Meijer

* Germany and the Muslim Brotherhood, Guido Steinberg

* France and Islamist Movements: A Long Non-dialogue, Jean-François Daguzan

* Spain and Islamist Movements: from the Victory of the FIS to the Arab Spring, Ana I. Planet and Miguel Hernando de Larramendi

* Israel and the Arab Spring: Understanding Attitudes and Responses to the “New Middle East,” Benedetta Berti

ABOUT THE PANELISTS:

Lorenzo Vidino specializes in Islamism and political violence in Europe and North America. Currently a Senior Fellow at FPRI and at the Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, he previously held positions at the RAND Corporation, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, the U.S. Institute of Peace, and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He has taught at Tufts University, the University of Maryland, the National Defense University and the University of Zurich. He is the author of three books, most recently The New Muslim Brotherhood in the West (Columbia University Press, 2010), and articles in several prominent newspapers, including The International Herald Tribune, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and The Boston Globe. He has testified before the U.S. Congress and consults with governments, law firms, think tanks and media in several countries. A native of Milan, Italy, he holds a law degree from the University of Milan Law School and a doctorate in international relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.

Abdullah Bijad Alotibi, a Saudi writer and researcher, is a member of the board of advisors at Al Mesbar Studies & Research Centre. Alotibi has written for many Arabic and Saudi newspapers such as Al Ittihad, Okaz, and Al Hayat (London). He currently contributes a weekly article to Asharq Al-Awsat, Al Ittihad, and Al Majalla. He has published several research papers for Al Mesbar’s monthly publication including “Loyalty and Enmity: the Ideology of the Political Opposition in Islam� and “Saudi Arabia and the Muslim Brotherhood.� Alotibi works as a consultant at The Middle East Broadcasting Center Group and has also worked on and supervised various media documentaries and programs for Al Arabia Channel.

Joseph Braude studied Near Eastern Languages at Yale and Arabic and Islamic History at Princeton. Fluent in Arabic, Persian, and Hebrew, he contributes a weekly Arabic-language broadcast, "Letter from New York," to MED Radio, a national network in Morocco, and is a regular contributor to Public Radio International's America Abroad. His writing has appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Los Angeles Times Sunday Magazine, among other publications.
His latest book, The Honored Dead (Random House - Spiegel & Grau, 2011), is a study of the relationship between state and society in the Arab world based on four months which he spent embedded with the Moroccan police in Casablanca; Braude is the first Westerner ever to have gained embed access to an Arabic security service. His prior book, The New Iraq (Basic Books, 2003), examines the challenge of state-building in Iraq in light of the country's history, culture, and institutions.

Tally Helfont is the Managing Director of FPRI's Program on the Middle East. Her current research focuses on the Levant, regional balance of power, and radical ideologies therein.
Ms. Helfont has instructed training courses in Civil Information Management to U.S. Military Civil Affairs Units and Human Terrain Teams assigned to Iraq and Afghanistan.
She is the author of the FPRI monograph, The Palestinian Islamic Jihad's U.S. Cell [1988-95]: The Ideological Foundations of Its Propaganda Strategy, and has published numerous FPRI E-Notes, and in Orbis. Helfont conducted research in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in the summer of 2011, about which she also authored several articles. She is proficient at various levels in Hebrew, Arabic, and French.


For event information and updates:
http://www.fpri.org/events/2013/03/muslim-brotherhood-and-west

Thursday, March 20, 2013
1:45 p.m. Registration; 2:00 – 4:00 p.m. Program ROA, One Constitution Avenue, NE, Washington, DC

Free and Open to the Public
Reservations required
Also available thru audio webcast/teleconference Register by email to: events@fpri.org or telephone: (215) 732-3774 x303

To register for webcast/teleconference only use this link:
https://cc.readytalk.com/r/uz0psms4njfh

For more information, contact:
Harry Richlin
Tel: (215) 732-3774 x102
Email: hr@fpri.org.

Foreign Policy Research Institute
1528 Walnut Street, Suite 610
Philadelphia, PA 19102-3684
www.fpri.org.

[Crafty_Dog]

Summary
 
Egypt is attempting to attract foreign direct and portfolio investment while delaying making foundational changes to the country's economic system. During a recent state visit to India that ended March 20, Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi made several ambitious statements about Egypt's future as an emerging economy in a public effort to spin the country's economic downturn as a moment of opportunity.
 
Meanwhile, Egypt is in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which is studying the possibility of extending a $4.8 billion loan to Egypt, pending improvements in the country's financial outlook. In order to secure the loan, Egypt must cut back on social spending. However, cutting spending will only worsen the country's political and security situation. A range of recent actions taken by the government demonstrate that Cairo is attempting to spur economic growth and investment where it can while postponing politically costly social spending adjustments.
 
 
Analysis
 
The most notable announcement in recent days was that the government will attempt to implement bread and cooking fuel ration cards within two months. This move came after an announcement that transportation fuel ration cards will be implemented by the end of July. Ration cards would put caps on how much access Egyptians would have to subsidized goods. They would not necessarily reduce the amount of bread or fuel being consumed by a particular household, but they would certainly better allow the government to control and anticipate its own costs.
 
If implemented with a means-testing mechanism -- a way to tell how much of a given subsidized good a household legitimately needs -- then the ration card system could more effectively aim Egypt's large subsidies toward portions of the population that really need them. As with most indiscriminate subsidy programs, most of the subsidies in Egypt are used by people with the means to purchase larger quantities of subsidized fuel, electricity, food and other goods. A ration card system implemented carefully could mitigate this problem and help to alleviate the government's deficit spending.
 
The implementation of such a system would be difficult and would require an evaluation of the individuals and households applying for ration cards in order to avoid fraud. It will likely take longer than the government's estimate of two months to implement a system like this. It is not at all clear that Egypt has the bureaucratic means to put a program like this in place carefully, and it is highly likely that the program will be implemented unevenly, if at all. Even if perfectly implemented, a rationing system would have political costs -- even if rations are sufficient for each household, the appearance of reducing benefits to a population with a high poverty rate will lend additional political momentum to ongoing unrest.
 
In addition to offering a timeline for the ration card system, the Egyptian government is extending assurances to portfolio investors and loans to the tourism industry. The Foreign Investor Repatriation Mechanism, which opened March 17, guarantees to stock, treasuries and bond investors in Egypt that if they bring in foreign currency, they will be able to pull it out when necessary. The mechanism also guarantees Egyptian Central Bank aid in bank-level transactions, should investors need to liquidate their holdings. This system is designed to reassure investors that Egypt is a safe investment environment and to address the steep decline in Egypt's capital and financial account flows following the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring.
 
The Egyptian Central Bank is also attempting to stabilize the domestic tourism industry. A major source of foreign revenue, Egypt's services sector has been suffering since the unrest of the Arab Spring began. An ongoing devaluation of the Egyptian pound should help improve Egypt's attractiveness as a vacation destination, but growing security concerns are likely to outweigh those benefits in the short and medium term. To help bridge the gap, the central bank has offered to reschedule and postpone payments on more than 60 percent of outstanding loans to the tourist industry, including hotels. However, the real key to stimulating the tourist industry will be reducing protests and associated violence -- a goal that is unlikely to be reached any time soon.
 
The picture that emerges from Egypt's most recent moves is that though the government has a range of financial tools it can use to attempt to stabilize the economy, serious political barriers stand in the way of addressing more fundamental problems. Fuel subsidies remain the biggest burden on the country's trade deficit and government budget, and any real moves toward controlling subsidized energy consumption will indicate that Egypt is ready to make foundational changes. In order to make such moves, however, the new Muslim Brotherhood-led government would need to be very secure in its political position, something that seems unlikely in the immediate future and, at the very least, will not be achieved until parliamentary elections can be held. Without that fundamental political stability, a financial and economic solution will remain out of Egypt's reach.


Read more: Egypt's Careful Economic Changes | Stratfor

[Crafty_Dog]

http://www.clarionproject.org/analysis/egypts-muslim-brotherhood-sets-militia-enforce-rule/#fm

http://www.clarionproject.org/analysis/christian-activist-egypt-tortured-opposing-muslim-brotherhood

[Crafty_Dog]

CAIRO—Thousands of Coptic Christians and Muslims clashed in downtown Cairo on Sunday following a funeral mass for four Christians killed in weekend violence outside the capital, a new low point in Egypt's worsening sectarian troubles.

At least one person was killed and 66 people were injured in the clashes, Egypt's state news agency reported.

The street battles began early Sunday afternoon, as mourners leaving the funeral at Egypt's main Coptic Christian cathedral clashed with youths from Abasseya, a poor Cairo neighborhood next to the church compound. The funeral procession was held to honor four Christians who were killed, along with one Muslim, in sectarian fighting in the village of El Khusus on Friday.

By nightfall on Sunday, the mostly Muslim rioters had managed to surround much of the downtown cathedral, blocking rescue workers from entering the sprawling church campus, according to Christians inside.

Christians who took shelter inside the cathedral said police did little to subdue the crowds of angry Muslim youths outside. Instead, the Christians complained, police attacked the cathedral compound and fired tear gas into the church's courtyard.

The police didn't release a statement regarding the attacks. The Interior Ministry didn't respond to requests to comment.

Egypt has seen a rise in bloody conflicts between Muslims and the Christians who make up about 10% of Egypt's 90 million people. But Sunday's siege around the cathedral signified a new low.

It also augurs fresh trouble for Islamist-backed President Mohammed Morsi, whose administration has presided over a worsening economy, rising crime and an increasingly vocal opposition since he was voted into office in late June 2012.

As the violence kicked off in Abasseya, a Cairo criminal court voted to acquit former presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq on charges of corruption dating from his time as civil-aviation minister under the regime of ousted President Hosni Mubarak.

The verdict clears the path for Mr. Shafiq, who lost a tight presidential race to Mr. Morsi last summer, to return to Egypt from the United Arab Emirates, where he has lived for much of the past year.

As the public's patience with Mr. Morsi wears thin, people close to Mr. Shafiq said he hopes to throw his hat back into the political ring. He has already called for presidential elections before 2016, the date of the next scheduled vote, because "the president has so far proven that he is incompetent to rule this country," said Ahmed Sarhan, Mr. Shafiq's former campaign spokesman, on Sunday.

"You can see what happened today: Almost no Christian trusts" Mr. Morsi, said Mr. Sarhan, referring to the Abasseya violence. Mr. Shafiq "truly thinks that we need an early presidential election after all this failure. We cannot afford to dive further into this chaos."

A survey late last month by private Egyptian polling group Baseera found that only 37% of Egyptians would vote for Mr. Morsi again if presidential elections were held tomorrow.

The violence comes amid an uptick in sectarian rhetoric from Muslim Brotherhood leaders. Last week, Egypt's Brotherhood-dominated legislature passed a law that would allow the use of religious slogans during political campaigns, clearing the way for the Brotherhood's own mantra "Islam is the solution." When asked on a television talk show last week whether Christians should be allowed to use a similar slogan—"Christianity is the solution"—Yasser Hamza, an official with the Freedom and Justice Party, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood organization that Mr. Morsi once helped lead, said no.

"This is an Islamic nation with an overwhelming Muslim majority," said Mr. Hamza. "The minority doesn't have absolute rights, it has relative rights."

The violence in El Khosos, northeast of Cairo, began, according to local media reports, when Christian youths spray-painted a swastika on a building owned by Al Azhar University, one of the most important religious institutions in Sunni Islam.

The incident quickly deteriorated, turning into a gunfight that left five people dead.

Those who attended the funeral of the four Christians on Sunday afternoon described an emotional, highly politicized atmosphere. Because of the size of the crowd, pallbearers could barely get the caskets through the door of the church. Parishioners shouted slogans against Mr. Morsi and the Brotherhood even after the service began.

"The anger was palpable in the church," said Khaled Fahmy, a professor of history at the American University in Cairo who attended the funeral. "The priest could not actually conduct the prayers. He was shouted down with slogans."

In a statement On Sunday evening, the Freedom and Justice Party, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, blamed unstated "enemies of Egypt" for provoking sectarian violence to "create sedition among citizens." The party condemned the attacks and called for an investigation.

Sunday's funeral for the four slain Christians took on the trappings of an anti-Morsi rally, witnesses said, with youths in the procession chanting slogans against the Brotherhood.

Witnesses gave contradictory accounts of how the fighting started. Muslim residents said Christians pelted nearby youths with rocks as they left the church, before turning on security forces who had arrived to calm the scene.

"The Christians just came out and attacked the people on the street," said a man from Abasseya who gave his name as Mohammed. "The Christians were the ones who started this. They even attacked the police who had come to protect them."

Christian witnesses said the Abasseya youths assaulted them after the funeral with rocks, Molotov cocktails and homemade rifles—one-shot, locally manufactured devices that have become increasingly common in street-level riots. The fighting continued into the night, as both sides appeared unwilling to yield. As the sun set Sunday, Muslims on the street outside the cathedral chanted "God is great!" and made lewd gestures at Christian youths watching from the roofs of the cathedral complex. Inside the compound, Christians gathered rocks to throw at the crowd gathered outside.

Coptic Christians holed up inside the cathedral accused the police of attacking the church in concert with neighborhood Muslims. "This conflict is because of Morsi. He's creating division so that he can seize the whole country" said George Adli, 28 years old. "The police attacked the Christians, not the Muslims because the police are Islamists, too."

Mr. Adli, who said he had witnessed the fighting from the beginning, said many of the young Christians he knows are making plans to leave Egypt. He himself plans to move to Canada within two months, he said. "It's gotten very bad," he said. "Morsi is bad. Egypt is bad. Everyone just wants to leave."