Dog Brothers Public Forum
Return To Homepage
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
January 25, 2015, 04:23:51 AM

Login with username, password and session length
Search:     Advanced search
Welcome to the Dog Brothers Public Forum.
84394 Posts in 2264 Topics by 1068 Members
Latest Member: cdenny
* Home Help Search Login Register
+  Dog Brothers Public Forum
|-+  Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities
| |-+  Politics & Religion
| | |-+  US Economics, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 18 19 [20] Print
Author Topic: US Economics, the stock market , and other investment/savings strategies  (Read 99311 times)
Crafty_Dog
Administrator
Power User
*****
Posts: 32206


« Reply #950 on: December 03, 2014, 10:40:24 AM »

Nonfarm Productivity Increased at a 2.3% Annual Rate in the Third Quarter To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 12/3/2014

Nonfarm productivity (output per hour) increased at a 2.3% annual rate in the third quarter, revised up from last month’s estimate of 2.0%. Nonfarm productivity is up 1.0% versus last year.
Real (inflation-adjusted) compensation per hour in the nonfarm sector increased at a 0.2% annual rate in Q3 and is up 0.4% versus last year. Unit labor costs declined 1.0% in Q3 but are up 1.2% versus a year ago.
In the manufacturing sector, the Q3 growth rate for productivity (2.9%) was faster than among nonfarm businesses as a whole. The faster pace in productivity growth was due to a slower increase in hours in that sector. Real compensation per hour was up in the manufacturing sector (+0.5%), and unit labor costs declined at a 1.3% annual rate.

Implications: Already signaled by last week's upward revision in the growth rate for Q3 real GDP, today's data show that productivity growth was also revised from a modest 2% annualized growth to a more respectable 2.3%. We say respectable, because productivity has been relatively weak - up just 1% from a year ago following an anemic 0.7% gain the year before. So, while the most recent quarter was in line with history, the past few years have seen productivity improvements noticeably slower than the average gain of 2.3% since 1996. There are three points to make about this. First, there are measurable improvements in productivity. Second, one must remember that productivity is an "aggregate" number - it includes all output, from new-tech, high productivity 3D printing, and, the wasted time spent on filling out complicated tax and regulatory paperwork. In other words, don't blame the private sector for slow growth, blame government. And, third, productivity is probably underestimated in the high-tech arena, especially for services, because we don't know how to account for things like GPS road guidance, for example. Sectors of the economy that are easier to measure show more rapid productivity growth. On the manufacturing side, productivity rose at a 2.9% annual rate in Q3, and is up a more healthy 2.7% from a year ago. Manufacturers, due to new technologies, are still able to increase output faster than hours. Overall, for the rest of the year and into 2015-16, we look for faster productivity growth than in the past two years. In other news this morning, the ADP index, which measures private-sector payrolls, showed a gain of 208,000 in November. Our models now forecast a nonfarm gain of 219,000, with 210,000 in the private sector, although the forecast may change slightly tomorrow based on new data for unemployment claims.
Logged
DougMacG
Power User
***
Posts: 6224


« Reply #951 on: December 04, 2014, 11:02:27 AM »

1)  I give due credit to Wesbury and other bulls for calling the good stock market over these times.  (Not for the reasons they give.)

2)   There is such a disconnect between the US economy and the stock market that maybe they are separate topics...

3)   Wesbury gets this right on two important counts:

 "don't blame the private sector for slow growth, blame government"

This is slow growth, and this is government's fault.  Growth could be, should be, 4-5% or more - consistently, under pro-growth policies.

4)  Actual, real growth in per person consumption expenditures is up (only) 1.4% over the past year.  Real GDP growth per person was up only 1.7%.  Source:  stlouisfed.org

This is pathetic and almost unprecedented stagnation for coming out of such a deep hole.


Logged
ccp
Power User
***
Posts: 4273


« Reply #952 on: December 06, 2014, 08:53:51 AM »

Someone called into Mark Levin and wondered if the 5 million illegals who are now legal will be added to the unemployment rolls.  Since I believe the vast majority who are not children are working Obama could  claim he "added" a million or two new jobs to the rolls.  That assumes these people will also admit to working. 

The point is the unemployment numbers are all just smoke and mirrors.  And this is one more example to prove it. 
Logged
DougMacG
Power User
***
Posts: 6224


« Reply #953 on: December 07, 2014, 12:01:06 PM »

ccp:  "Someone called into Mark Levin and wondered if the 5 million illegals who are now legal will be added to the unemployment rolls.  Since I believe the vast majority who are not children are working Obama could  claim he "added" a million or two new jobs to the rolls.  That assumes these people will also admit to working."

We have illegals working her in numbers greater that all the working class citizens looking for work.  If we wanted to absorb new immigrants at a faster rate, we should combine that wish with policies that enhance the starting and growing of new businesses and jobs, instead of the opposite.


"The point is the unemployment numbers are all just smoke and mirrors.  And this is one more example to prove it. "

Lead story yesterday on our local paper was just how great the employment situation now is.  Twin Cities' unemployment is now back to 3.6%.  No mention that the majority of adults in north Minneapolis are now permanently out of the workforce.

Meanwhile, the number of adults completely out of the workforce in America will hit 100 million by the end of the Obama administration.  More adults have left the workforce than work full time in the private sector, 92M to 86M.

Yes, ccp, we need new ways to measure and talk about employment and unemployment.
Logged
objectivist1
Power User
***
Posts: 634


« Reply #954 on: December 09, 2014, 09:56:45 AM »

Contrary to what all the economic pollyannas are telling us.  Here is the reality.  AS IF anyone who looks around with their own two eyes can't see this for themselves:

http://www.alt-market.com/articles/2428-retail-disaster-holiday-sales-crater-by-11-online-spending-declines

Logged

"You have enemies?  Good.  That means that you have stood up for something, sometime in your life." - Winston Churchill.
Crafty_Dog
Administrator
Power User
*****
Posts: 32206


« Reply #955 on: December 16, 2014, 08:01:34 AM »

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/16/business/economy/economic-recovery-spreads-to-the-middle-class-.html?emc=edit_th_20141216&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=49641193
Logged
prentice crawford
Power User
***
Posts: 791


« Reply #956 on: December 16, 2014, 11:35:21 PM »

Obama's friends do good. $ http://start.toshiba.com/news/read/category/Business/article/afp-ge_to_distribute_40_bn_to_shareholders_in_20152016-afp GE to distribute $40 bn 2015-16  http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/9268-obamas-crony-capitalism-and-his-top-2008-donors Obama’s 08 Donors.

                              P.C.
Logged

Crafty_Dog
Administrator
Power User
*****
Posts: 32206


« Reply #957 on: January 02, 2015, 12:06:12 PM »

Have We Finally Turned the Corner?
 

The silver lining

As 2014 came to a close, it was all about economic good news. Leading off the parade: In December, the Dow Jones Industrial Average capped off a torrid year of 7.5% growth when it reached 18,000 for the first time. Meanwhile, GDP grew at a 4.6% annual rate in the second quarter and an even faster 5% in the third -- a pace not seen since 2003. And on top of that, Americans saved $14 billion at the gas pump in 2014, and could save even more this year. Things are looking a bit brighter for 2015.
With all that economic good news, experts feel the job market will further strengthen in 2015 so the headline unemployment rate will slide ever closer to 5%. The labor market may remain a little bit soft as the long-term unemployed will be the last to find work, but as a whole it's no wonder the Left is boasting of the “Obama boom.” Even those on the Right are admitting this may end the “Age of Suck.”

This general feeling of economic optimism is reflected in increasing consumer confidence. While some worried about sluggish Black Friday sales as well as slower than expected last-minute shopping at retailers as the Christmas season wound down, online purchasing was strong enough to keep sales right around their predicted growth rate for the 2014 season.

While some try to credit Barack Obama for the rebound, the good news is rooted in two areas the president has tried his best to obstruct.

One is an overall slowdown in government spending growth, which is declining as a percentage of GDP. Congress hasn't done nearly enough to cut spending given its tendency to govern by continuing resolution rather than a set budget -- meaning the Obama spending bonanza of 2009 and 2010 is the new minimum.  But as columnist David Harsanyi puts it, “After [2010], Congress, year by year, became one of the least productive in history. And the more unproductive Washington became, the more the economy began to improve.”

The key date is 2010, when Republicans took over the House. Harsanyi argues gridlock has created part of this improvement, and there's a compelling argument for that point. Imagine what we may have been saddled with had Republicans not taken over the House in 2010: endless government “stimulus” programs, cap and trade, and a faster implementation of ObamaCare for starters -- all leading to a national debt far larger than the already-astronomical one we're facing now.

Another part of the economic rebound stems from lower oil prices, which have plummeted by nearly half in the last six months. That steep drop is now reflected in gas-pump prices, resulting in what Citigroup estimates as an average $1,150 annual boost to consumers. This boom could have been amplified still further if not for Obama's stalling of the Keystone XL pipeline or his refusal to open up federally controlled land to oil exploration. An activist EPA also waits in the wings with the potential for crippling regulations similar to those imposed on the coal industry.

Obama can try his best, but no president has figured out a way to kill the American free enterprise system. Its resilience has brought us out of numerous depressions, panics, recessions and economic slumps over the years as enough people found a way to work through or around the situation.

We will begin to see the effects of a truly divided government, with Republicans now totally in charge of Congress and Obama threatening to veto more legislation. “I haven't used the veto pen very often since I've been in office,” Obama not-so-subtly threatened last month. “Now, I suspect, there are going to be some times where I've got to pull that pen out.”

While the economy is improving -- at least according to the numbers our government releases, if not necessarily everyone's personal situation -- it will be up to those respective sides to make the case why things could be even better if their vision prevails. It's a battle that will be joined as contenders for the 2016 presidential election come onto the scene and spell out their plans to continue the momentum.

Logged
ccp
Power User
***
Posts: 4273


« Reply #958 on: January 02, 2015, 04:42:55 PM »

 “I haven't used the veto pen very often since I've been in office,” Obama not-so-subtly threatened last month. “Now, I suspect, there are going to be some times where I've got to pull that pen out.”

Yeah Harry Reid did his dirty work.

"Citigroup estimates as an average $1,150 annual boost to consumers"

The Democrats response of course is this is the perfect time to increase gas taxes.  Even heard some phoney Republicans make this case.  I think Ben Stein was one of them. 

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 18 19 [20] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!