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Author Topic: 2016 Presidential  (Read 107727 times)
DDF
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« Reply #1600 on: November 06, 2016, 05:33:39 PM »


We crossed that finish line in 2008. We are all about to be playing an entirely different game soon.

This gentleman really has an excellent take on all of this.

https://www.facebook.com/bill.whittle/videos/10154934274357454/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 07:14:59 PM by DDF » Logged

It's all a matter of perspective.
DougMacG
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« Reply #1601 on: November 07, 2016, 09:57:44 AM »

DDF made the most bold prediction calling it Trump in a landslide long before he was closing the gap.  I will post Wed that 'DDF was Right' if Trump wins the popular vote by anything that rounds to 3 points or more and he wins the electoral count.

My predictions, subject to update with so much time left between now and tomorrow...

1.  Clinton by 1% popular vote and by at least a state or two electorally.   (

2. Republicans hold the Senate 51-49.  If I am wrong by one here, the tie goes to the winner of the White House.

3.  Republicans hold the House, lose 10 seats but keep a solid majority.


In the early returns, if Virginia is near even instead of Clinton up by 6 as the polls suggest, this race turns on its ear.  If Trump wins Pennsylvania, start the math over.  If Trump wins Indiana by way more than 11, this race is different than predicted.  But if Clinton wins Florida, it's over.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 03:52:55 PM by DougMacG » Logged
DougMacG
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« Reply #1602 on: November 07, 2016, 05:45:55 PM »

Our Pat (surprisingly) thinks the polls are wrong and it will be Trump in a landslide.
https://www.hotgas.net/2016/11/final-election-predictions/
------------------------------------------------------------------------

RCP Average is currently Clinton +2.9%   Assuming a 2-3 point under-count, this is going to be close and the Republican is the underdog.  Prove them wrong! 

There are a number of ways they can be wrong. 

1. People vote differently in the privacy of the polling booth than they tell pollsters.  Each percent of that has a 2 point swing.  A few Hispanics who already have jobs, citizenship and good lives might fall into into this group, not wanting to say they support Trump.
2. Turnout models turn out false.  Blacks aren't excited about Hillary.  Women aren't excited.  The young aren't excited. 
3. Polling methods have worsened since people abandoned home phones.
4. Polling firms tweak their results to fall in line with other polls.

Republicans have been winning non-Presidential year elections and state races.  Perhaps this election year will have more in common with those years.

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G M
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« Reply #1603 on: November 07, 2016, 07:41:30 PM »

There will be an epic level of dead and illegal alien voters turning out this year, oh and outright fraud as well.



Our Pat (surprisingly) thinks the polls are wrong and it will be Trump in a landslide.
https://www.hotgas.net/2016/11/final-election-predictions/
------------------------------------------------------------------------

RCP Average is currently Clinton +2.9%   Assuming a 2-3 point under-count, this is going to be close and the Republican is the underdog.  Prove them wrong! 

There are a number of ways they can be wrong. 

1. People vote differently in the privacy of the polling booth than they tell pollsters.  Each percent of that has a 2 point swing.  A few Hispanics who already have jobs, citizenship and good lives might fall into into this group, not wanting to say they support Trump.
2. Turnout models turn out false.  Blacks aren't excited about Hillary.  Women aren't excited.  The young aren't excited. 
3. Polling methods have worsened since people abandoned home phones.
4. Polling firms tweak their results to fall in line with other polls.

Republicans have been winning non-Presidential year elections and state races.  Perhaps this election year will have more in common with those years.


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ccp
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« Reply #1604 on: November 07, 2016, 07:43:00 PM »

"There will be an epic level of dead and illegal alien voters turning out this year, oh and outright fraud as well."

GM

Do you know why zombies are all Democrats.....

see next post to find out.
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ccp
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« Reply #1605 on: November 07, 2016, 07:51:38 PM »

Hillary promised them *free* cemetery care - forever.   Paid for by the "one percent" who have not paid their fair share   wink.  (but that includes everyone else who pays taxes )

Every stiff deserves free cemetery care.  (hey just think - the Clinton crime family  could use those funds to pay off their cronies who will all flock to get into the cemetery business).

You know , Tony, Roger, Chelsea , and her hedge fund beau.
Give McAucllife some cemetery stock options membership to the Board for another 300 K per year for another no show graft,  and Podestsa could be a director also but he is worth 400 K.

Cheryl Mills can also be on the board.

Huma can get a 30th full time job while working as side kick to Hildabeast at the WH and getting all the government benefits.
I assume she will ge a pension for which we will all be paying for ever.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2016, 07:53:56 PM by ccp » Logged
DougMacG
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« Reply #1606 on: November 08, 2016, 11:10:30 AM »

I voted.  Please vote and do everything else you can to make a difference today.   At least 15 states are close (list below) and will decide this election and the future (or end) of this nation.   Hillary polls above 50% in none of these states, nor in any national poll.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

RCP final with no tossups has Trump at 266, 4 electoral votes short with the 4 tossup votes in NH scored for Clinton.  Some of those in the Trump column are vulnerable and some states where Clinton's lead is thin are winnable.  Trump must hold where he leads, FL and NC especially.   Then a win in NH, PA, CO, NM, MI or VA could put him over the top.

Somehow I have the feeling this is all going to turn against us today, toward Hillary and the people who want to rule us rather than let us live mostly in freedom.  (Please don't let that happen!)

Hillary and the Dems have the lists of all Americans likely to vote liberal sorted by demographic group and government benefit programs.  They have been out contacting door to door in person with paid workers to get out their vote.  (Our side has virtually none of that, relying on individuals to read through the distorted news and make the right choice.)  Their best groups include felons, illegals, people dependent on government programs and people most susceptible to the race and class warfare promise.  

All we can do at this point is reach out one by one and try to make the smallest of differences.

This is the moment. Don't wish later that you had done more now.  If you agree this election is crucial, then think of everyone like minded you know and check in with them today, now.  Who do you know in one of the following places that might appreciate having someone they know contact them about how important their vote is?

Florida
Ohio
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Nevada
New Mexico
Colorado
Arizona
Iowa
Maine
Michigan
Virginia
Wisconsin
Georgia

All of these states matter!

A short time ago I watched Al Franken become the 60th liberal vote in the Senate enabling a historic takeover by big government.  They did that with a margin (312 questionable votes) that could have been overcome with just a little more effort from all the people opposed to that agenda and philosophy.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 11:20:03 AM by DougMacG » Logged
DougMacG
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« Reply #1607 on: November 08, 2016, 03:32:17 PM »

Nate Silver's predicts 70% chance of Clinton victory, spends his final blog post writing about unprecedented uncertainty.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

Clinton up by 3.  Error of 3% is "common".  If it moves 3 points, that easily could change the outcome.  Trump polls better in swing states than nationally.  Swing states contain more swing voters.  (Go figure.)  Error of 6-10% also possible - either way.  More undecideds than ever, could break one way (or the other) rather than down the middle.  More third party supporters than usual; some will tend to move to their binary choice.  12% of the vote unknown by poll takers even if they are right on the rest.

Polling errors are correlated across states, not random.

Polls understated 2015 UK conservative victory by 6 points.
Republicans beat the polls in 2014 by 3-4 points.
Polls missed Brexit 2016 by 4%.
Polls missed Reagan's win in 1980 by 8 points.
--------------------------
Drudge at this hour:

HILLARY +PA
TRUMP +AZ, GA, IA, NC, OH
COLORADO SHOWDOWN
FLORIDA SHOWDOWN
MICHIGAN SHOWDOWN
NEVADA SHOWDOWN


ELECTION WILL BE DECIDED BY EVENING VOTERS
--------------------------------------------------------------

Did YOU vote?
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 03:35:27 PM by DougMacG » Logged
G M
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« Reply #1608 on: November 09, 2016, 12:48:38 AM »

I have never been so happy to be wrong. Props to DDF for calling it.

This really feels like getting a pardon by the governor a minute before execution.

I honestly pray Trump does a good job. God really loves this country despite our best efforts.
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DDF
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« Reply #1609 on: November 09, 2016, 01:09:52 AM »

I have never been so happy to be wrong. Props to DDF for calling it.

This really feels like getting a pardon by the governor a minute before execution.

I honestly pray Trump does a good job. God really loves this country despite our best efforts.

I miscalled a couple of States.... I'll take the hit for not being completely correct because I'm so happy it isn't her. Tally everything up tomorrow. See what I missed. I already know I missed the popular vote margin.

Cheers GM.... now for term limits.

Ps.... I hope Trump does a good job too. I'm not yet sure of that.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #1610 on: November 09, 2016, 01:31:30 AM »

Here is the real reason the Empress Dowager appears to have lost:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/election/madonna-withdraws-oral-sex-promise-hillary-voters-article-1.2864602
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DougMacG
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« Reply #1611 on: November 09, 2016, 08:40:39 AM »

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

276 Electoral Votes with perhaps 30 more coming from Alaska and close races in Michigan and Arizona making it 307-232.

Final tallies aside, Trump won a close election.  Also Republicans won huge Senate races, held the Senate and the House, which all effects at least the start of the Trump administration. 

The consensus of the polls was wrong.  This election was a tie in the popular vote, Clinton up by a hair, but Trump won Iowa by 10, Ohio by 8 and Wisconsin by 1, where the polls had him down by 6.

Clinton won Virginia roughly by the number of felons and illegals voting and she won Minnesota roughly by the number of peaceful, unvetted Somalis that have settled here.  She won Colorado and New Mexico with margins that come from population influxes there too. 

The Obama-Clinton (and Bush) years are coming to an end.  A new chapter is beginning.  God Bless America.

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ppulatie
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« Reply #1612 on: November 09, 2016, 08:59:08 AM »

   I TOLD YOU SO!!!   
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PPulatie
DougMacG
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« Reply #1613 on: November 09, 2016, 09:13:39 AM »

   I TOLD YOU SO!!!   

Yes you did!   )

And Rubio won in Trump's most important swing state -  with 8 times the margin.  This didn't have to be so hard!
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DougMacG
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« Reply #1614 on: November 09, 2016, 11:54:47 AM »

http://www.pressherald.com/2016/11/08/mainers-take-matters-into-their-own-hands-after-bitter-presidential-campaign/

Maine splits its electoral votes for the first time. 

Michigan also called for Trump, thin margin.  Hillary conceded.  Updating electoral count: 308-231. (?)   

Hillary still leads the popular vote by 0.2% with many votes left to count.  Let's hope that doesn't become a footnote to this historic event.
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DDF
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« Reply #1615 on: November 09, 2016, 12:36:55 PM »

I nailed every state except for one, and I was still wrong.

I have seen immigrant after immigrant supporting the Left.

Even with the amount of fraud, illegal voters, etc., that could have taken place, the overwhelming support of who the people allowed into the country support, is of much concern.

I wish I had been correct in the popular vote. Unfortunately, on this component of it, I was dead wrong. I had Trump figured for 8 points. He lost the popular by .249%

That's a problem.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2016, 12:38:51 PM by DDF » Logged

It's all a matter of perspective.
ccp
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« Reply #1616 on: November 09, 2016, 01:08:28 PM »

DDF and PP and Michael Moore - congratulations on calling it.   What does Nate Silver know?

Amazing he still won with everything against him.

I think this loss (Hillary losing the election)  cancels out the my wins (Hillary running for President, winning the primary and being the DNC nominee) with DougMacG!    I won't need bunker food after all.    grin

A champaign toast to all !


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DDF
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« Reply #1617 on: November 09, 2016, 01:47:13 PM »

DDF and PP and Michael Moore - congratulations on calling it.   What does Nate Silver know?

Amazing he still won with everything against him.

I think this loss (Hillary losing the election)  cancels out the my wins (Hillary running for President, winning the primary and being the DNC nominee) with DougMacG!    I won't need bunker food after all.    grin

A champaign toast to all !




Everyone here has great teachers. Many are surprised when I tell them what I learn from here, from you all. More than anything, an influx of different mindsets, sources, and critical thinking.

The compliment goes to people here. This is great place to learn.

Now.... just hoping he does his job. Without law... we're all back in tribal warfare in an immediate sense.
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DDF
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« Reply #1618 on: November 09, 2016, 01:50:28 PM »

   I TOLD YOU SO!!!   

I don't know where the high five button is.... but that's what the sentiment is.

I'm still puzzled by the amount of suport Clinton got in the popular vote. I will be examining that heavily.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #1619 on: November 09, 2016, 03:45:05 PM »

This should have been a landslide for us.  Trump made it very hard for many of our fellow Americans to see him as presidential.
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ccp
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« Reply #1620 on: November 09, 2016, 03:59:44 PM »

"This should have been a landslide for us.  Trump made it very hard for many of our fellow Americans to see him as presidential."

It is all academic now but I wonder if Biden could have beaten Trump.  While he is the iteration of Obama he doesn't carry her negatives ( with most Americans - not me).

Of course the Left will continue the racist sexist xenophobic etc mantra. 

Trump will have a really tough time.   
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ccp
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« Reply #1621 on: November 09, 2016, 04:14:41 PM »

Agree with Carly Hoilman.   Surprising!  Sobering.  Hope Trump can win over some of the reasonable people on the LEFT:

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/11/miley-cyrus-reaction-to-trumps-election-was-surprisingly-refreshing

Maybe the LEFt can now appreciate this country now and stop bashing us and it!
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DDF
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« Reply #1622 on: November 09, 2016, 05:32:08 PM »

This should have been a landslide for us.  Trump made it very hard for many of our fellow Americans to see him as presidential.

I think you're right and that is the crux of it.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #1623 on: November 09, 2016, 06:24:22 PM »

The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge, natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism. The disorders and miseries, which result, gradually incline the minds of men to seek security and repose in the absolute power of an individual; and sooner or later the chief of some prevailing faction, more able or more fortunate than his competitors, turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation, on the ruins of Public Liberty.

George Washington
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DougMacG
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« Reply #1624 on: November 09, 2016, 08:35:26 PM »

After alleged panic overnight, the Dow closed at a record high today on the news of the Trump election.  Or was there some other news...

The world didn't end as predicted.
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G M
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« Reply #1625 on: November 09, 2016, 10:18:03 PM »

http://christianmerc.blogspot.com/2016/11/repudiation.html

 Repudiation

Before the media and the leftists figure out how to make the Trump victory, a victory for them through all the traditional means, such as describing how the Trump victory was really a dying last gasp of white racism; or how Trump fed all of the unemployed a false narrative about jobs aplenty; or that the nation under Obama has made Trump's desires inaccessible, let me explain what the Trump victory meant.


It meant that we want a true nation, with borders and to decide who comes in, what they want to do here and how they intend to embrace the formula, which has made this nation successful over the past two hundred plus years. It meant that the majority of us do not want to invest billions of tax dollars into the "green" industry which is only "green" because it takes money from the many and gives to Silicon Valley hucksters. It meant that the majority of us do not agree with government by phone and pen and want and expect our representatives to vote against budget-busting government giveaways to organizations dedicated to the destruction of the middle-class. It meant that the majority of us do not want the government to be at war with its citizens and taxpayers. It meant that the majority of us do not want the Attorney General's office to obstruct justice. It meant that the majority of us do not want Black Lives Matter to have an adjunct office in the Attorney General's office. It means we like the Second Amendment and intend to deny Obama's Supreme Court the opportunity to do more damage to it than they already have.


In essence, the Trump victory simply means that the average American is tired of being belittled, ignored and trampled on by the various special interest groups all claiming that they have somehow been disadvantaged by a system that is based on merit.


Obama's vision of this nation is flawed, but by sheer bully tactics it got its way for eight years, simply because the people of this nation did not want to hold Obama, or his cronies accountable for his inability to govern a diverse people. Instead, they let the first black president do as he pleased, but now recognize Trump as a means of "draining the swamp" of politicians that take advantage of those good intentions. Reparations? We just paid it for eight years. Now, we are even and we want a nation of accountability and fairness to return. We want to return to a nation of people who work hard and need jobs and don't want to be on the government dole. Obama's constituency of "the needy" did not show up for him, because he was not on the ballot and the good people of this nation had absolved themselves of their sins by tolerating his brand of government corruption. Obamacare? Tried it and didn't like it. Open borders? Tried it and didn't like it. Importing terrorists? Tried it and didn't like it. Giving Iran billions of dollars to foster and encourage worldwide terrorism? Tried it and didn't like it.


The Trump victory is not a repudiation of blackness or brownness or Islam. It is a repudiation of self-annihilation through embracement of those qualities alone. Obama viewed blackness and brownness and Islam as a means of destroying whiteness and Christianness. Trump's victory is a repudiation of that method of reconstructing the nation.


The United States of America is an open society, welcoming of any shade of color or religious fervor, but it is expected that entrance to the bounty of America comes with a corresponding respect for the values and methods by which, for over two hundred years, it has built the society capable of that bounty. It is not a nation to be plundered by those who enter, but bolstered by those who enter and as the creators of the bounty (black, white, brown and whatever other color is associated with people) we have the right and the obligation to protect it by choosing those who enter for their potential ability to build upon that which has been laid as a foundation.


Obama's method of governance was to destroy that which made this nation wealthy and prosperous by allowing the plunderers special access to the bounty. Repudiation of that method of governance is what a Trump victory meant.
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G M
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« Reply #1626 on: November 10, 2016, 05:34:51 PM »

http://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2016/11/10/we-stopped-hillary-n2243594

We Stopped Hillary
Kurt Schlichter

Posted: Nov 10, 2016 12:01 AM


Well, that could have gone a lot worse.

In the wake of Hillary’s massive, unequivocal, humiliating rejection, I was going to write this column on the critical need for us conservatives to have a big group hug and restore the shattered bonds that should unite us, whether #NeverTrump, #NeverHillary or #IHateEveryone. But that can wait. Right now, I have some savoring to do. Let’s see, we have the executive branch, the legislative branch and we’ll be taking back the judicial branch. The mainstream media is in a state of shock. Liberals are having fits. And the ocean is still rising, as one of my Twitter followers observed, only it’s because of liberal tears.

Tuesday was a good day for everything awesome in America except for my book series. Then again, maybe not. With the #NotMyPresident hashtag happening among devastated millennials who, for the first time in their bubble-wrapped lives got told “No,” maybe they’ll be the ones demanding succession from that hateful, racists, sexist, imperialist, transphobic, and racist big red blob between the liberal cities called “America.”

Don’t worry, libs. California still seems eager to buck the trend and stick with stupid. You can all come out here to slake your thirst for socialist failure, slowly paying off that gender studies degree getting me my dry cleaning as part of your career doing Task Rabbit gigs.


Or, maybe, just maybe, someday you’ll be able to get a decent job that will let you support a family like your parents (or, really, their parents) had. But you’ll have to forgo the palm trees and random Amy Schumer sightings in Santa Monica.

I could take this opportunity to extend my hand to my liberal co-citizens and the non-citizens they wanted to just hand the gift of citizenship in return for the implicit promise to vote for whichever corrupt leftist the Democrats decided to wheel out on a Hannibal Lector handcart. But no. That can wait too – for now, the only thing I’m extending is my middle finger.

You built this. Now suck on it.

You jerks thought we normals were terrible and stupid when you thought of us at all. How do you like us now? Are you worried that an unfriendly executive branch might unleash its dogs at the, say, IRS upon you? That bureaucrats might destroy the entire industry that you work in, that supports your family, to satisfy the whims of the regime’s ideology? That the government is heading toward the time when it might send armed federal agents to your house to arrest you for exercising your constitutional rights?

Welcome to the last eight years as a normal.

Not so big on unlimited executive power anymore, are you? Seeing how maybe those Dead White Cis-Het Males with funny wigs back in olden times might have had a point?

Well, you need to do a little sweating, a little worrying. Fear is the teacher, and class is in session. Maybe you’ll learn something. Maybe you’ll stand up for what’s right the next time your side is honored with America’s steering wheel and some leftist serpent starts hissing that you should throw all that due process and Bill of Rights stuff out the window in the name of progressive expedience.

How’s it feel with the Doc Marten on the other foot?

But I doubt you’ll learn. You’re kind of dumb, and you tend to sniff along behind aspiring fascists. So we’ll still keep buying guns and ammo at record rates, thank you very much, because we doubt you’ll learn anything about the rule of law from your time wondering if you can rely on it.

Heck, if we had any money after eight years of that creased-pants joke’s misrule, we’d use the stock market panic dip as a buying opportunity for loading up on otherwise skyrocketing gun company stocks. Oh, and also shares of whoever makes Crown Royal– I hear that’s Hillary’s booze of choice.

There’s more good news. For at least the next four years we’ll see a renewed interest in that quaint concept called “checks and balances.” Watch for Donald Trump – excuse me, President Donald Trump – to be the most checked and balanced chief exec ever. And that’s terrific.

Oh, and the media will re-discover curiosity about governmental misconduct and inefficiency again – once the collective weeping ends. Watching their faces collapse like the Nazis in Raiders of the Lost Ark when President-elect Donald Trump crossed 270 was one of the great moments of my life. Their collective pain is our collective joy. And they have a long time and a lot of hard work ahead if they hope to ever regain our trust – but, of course, I have zero confidence that they even understand how completely they have destroyed their own credibility. A few professional journalists knew what was coming – Salena Zito saw what was happening because she left the comfortable cities and went out to actually talk to the people who just shocked the world. Any media outlet interested in actually covering America should swoop her up.

Back to savoring.

We rejected corruption. We rejected the elites who hold us in contempt. We rejected the political correctness and its posse of lies that was designed to silence us, to make us kneel, bow and obey. We stopped politely asking for respect – we took it. And there’s nothing you can do about it.

We are the majority – at least of electoral votes, suckers – and we are awake. This election shows that we are no longer going to be silent.

Yeah, that could have gone a lot worse.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #1627 on: November 10, 2016, 10:06:06 PM »

As this thread presumably winds down, I would like to thank one and all for a fine job.  I like to think that perhaps our efforts here contributed in some small way to the outcome.

Well done gentlemen!

God bless America!
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DDF
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« Reply #1628 on: November 11, 2016, 07:46:55 AM »

As this thread presumably winds down, I would like to thank one and all for a fine job.  I like to think that perhaps our efforts here contributed in some small way to the outcome.

Well done gentlemen!

God bless America!

Indeed sir. You as well.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #1629 on: November 13, 2016, 05:38:35 PM »

http://www.hoover.org/research/why-trump-won
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #1630 on: November 13, 2016, 09:56:19 PM »

http://www.daybydaycartoon.com/comic/fucked/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DayByDayCartoon+%28Day+by+Day+Cartoon+by+Chris+Muir%29
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #1631 on: December 01, 2016, 06:50:56 PM »

http://www.westernjournalism.com/clinton-campaign-seeks-volunteers-help-voter-recount-effort/?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=PostUp&utm_campaign=WJDailyEmail&utm_content=2016-12-01
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