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Author Topic: 2016 Presidential  (Read 36043 times)
Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #350 on: August 31, 2015, 08:54:10 PM »

For a bit of fun, predictions on the first five candidates to drop out?
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ccp
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« Reply #351 on: September 01, 2015, 09:00:35 AM »

Walker was on Levin's radio show last week.  Levin asked him questions and he started rambling in a rather disorganized fashion and frankly and not exaggeratingly after a few minutes of listening to him I literally fell asleep.

Thank God the car was parked and I wasn't driving down the highway.  I would have died or hurt someone else.

He has zero charisma, zero oratory skills, and without a doubt zero chance of going anywhere.

He would make a great hypnotist.
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DougMacG
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« Reply #352 on: September 01, 2015, 10:37:11 AM »

For a bit of fun, predictions on the first five candidates to drop out?

Sounds like good way to continue showing my prediction deficiencies...   Like my prediction that Hillary won't run, it requires them to know they have no chance, not just for me to know.

Looking at the bottom of the draw it ought to be:
Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and Gilmore and Pataki if anyone is counting them.  Also Jindal and Christie.  I would like to see Jindal stay in but it is tough to do without support.  Of course we may lose key people like Lincoln Chaffee too, lol.  Jim Webb isn't making an impact but may want a seat at the debate.

I think people like Scott Walker (and Tim Pawlenty last time) would make fine Presidents.  CCP and others have been too hard on him but are right, not enough sizzle to sell the steak.  Also, not enough excitement to cover up their errors and move forward.  Walker will get out as soon as he knows he won't win Iowa, but that might be after the results are in.

I would like to see Huckabee and Rand Paul out but it's probably not going to happen.  Rand in particular is way below expectations and has a Senate campaign to run.  Maybe Huck will fizzle when people start focusing on electability.

First big one out could be Jeb Bush.  He may have already found out he doesn't like doing this.  With Walker, that would make 2 of the original top three out.  And Rubio has a trend line down and is starting to make unforced errors.  All three out?

Of the August outsiders, Trump, Carson and Fiorina, you would think at least one may fall hard and fall soon.  My hope is that it's Trump but right now that's hard to see.  He looks stuck in the polls now but doesn't need to gain much ground as frontrunner to keep making an impact.  And he's having a great time doing it.

More importantly, who that is running in place and under-performing now that will step up their game into the big time?  More than one of them, I hope.

Also, who else will still get in?  Another independent?

Yes I realize I dodged your question.  )


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ppulatie
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« Reply #353 on: September 01, 2015, 11:10:47 AM »

Here is why no one will want to be the first to drop out.


Perry's smart glasses prevents him from dropping out fast. The glasses lead him to think that he still has a chance.

Graham is an attorney and politician. He is too arrogant to drop out fast.

Walker is still reading his press releases. He believes he can win yet.

Rubio can't drop out. His next job position depends upon him staying in the race, splitting anti Bush votes and allowing Bush to win so that he can get a cabinet post.

Bush is the "GOPe" choice. He can't drop out. He is the third coming of Bush.

Christie is too arrogant to drop out.

Rand is too much like his dad. He will stay in because he has nothing to lose but everything to gain with his Senate campaign.

Huckabee needs G-d to tell him to stop. Right now, he is receiving word from G-d to continue.

Santorum won't because the media is keeping him afloat.

Carly has the media attention, so she will remain for some time, even with her liberal beliefs like man made global warming and amnesty/immigration.

I expect  that Pataki and Gilmore will be the first two to go.

Go Trump!!!!
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PPulatie
ccp
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« Reply #354 on: September 01, 2015, 12:40:43 PM »

"Go Trump"

I have to admit here I wish he would stop with the name calling.   I don't disagree with him in point but his name calling of Huma and Weiner is distracting from himself in my opinion.

If only he had Carson's temperament and Carson has his oratory skills;  that would = one big winner.
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ppulatie
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« Reply #355 on: September 01, 2015, 01:10:05 PM »

It is red meat for his supporters.  "Advertisers puff."

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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #356 on: September 01, 2015, 07:38:00 PM »

FWIW I can imagine the current flame war between Trump and Jeb damaging both and leaving people fed up , , , and very receptive to Carson, from whom I hope for a strong performance at the next debate.

I could be wrong, but FWIW concern may seem soft, but IMHO he has a will of steel.
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ppulatie
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« Reply #357 on: September 01, 2015, 08:26:09 PM »

The Trump supporters can live with a flame war.....in fact they are loving it right now. And all too many of them, myself included, will sit out if Jeb is the nominee.

There are rumors that the GOPe is pushing Carson now as a foil to Trump. Carson splits the vote to allow Jeb to be nominee.

BTW, in Iowa, the airwaves are filled right now with Carson ads running continuously. This is why he is doing so well at the moment. But this is not sustainable at his pace of fund raising.
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PPulatie
Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #358 on: September 01, 2015, 08:39:07 PM »

Sorry, but IMHO Jeb is done for more than one reason.
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ppulatie
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« Reply #359 on: September 02, 2015, 10:26:23 AM »

Hopefully he is done. But the GOPe is still pushing him over all others. Conservative Treehouse has a full accounting of the Bush strategy.

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/08/09/gope-2016-road-map-to-victory-tree-house-challenge/
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #360 on: September 02, 2015, 11:58:36 AM »

Interesting read.
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Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #361 on: September 02, 2015, 02:29:53 PM »



The No-Growth Campaign
Clinton and Trump are offering nothing to improve the economy.


Stocks took another tumble on Tuesday on a weak manufacturing report out of China, and investor shivers about Japan, the oil patch and the U.S. are increasing. The shaky markets and underlying economy seem relevant to the presidential debate—yet the front-runners of both parties have next to no pro-growth ideas to contribute.

Hillary Clinton favors higher taxation, heavier regulation, more political shackling of business, and centralizing more economic control inside the White House. So does Donald Trump—at least as far as we can tell.

Mrs. Clinton is promising Obamanomics Plus: continue the agenda of the last eight years, with bonus corrections toward the left as necessary. She’s proposed to nearly double the top tax rate on some capital gains to 43.4% from 23.8%, for example, up from 15% as recently as 2012.

On energy, one of the few U.S. growth areas of the Obama era, she is even further to the left. The green elites used to tolerate support for the U.S. oil and natural gas boom if gas could be levered as a transition fuel toward a post-carbon future. Now they favor massive subsidies for wind and solar today and no fossil-fuel drilling, and Mrs. Clinton is moving their way.

About the only growth component of Mrs. Clinton’s agenda is immigration, and there she beats Mr. Trump in a romp. A larger workforce adds to GDP, and economists of all political persuasions agree that increasing human capital drives prosperity and offsets an otherwise aging population.

Mr. Trump’s candidacy is more attitude than substance, and his quicksilver positions change day to day, even minute to minute in the same interview. But he has been consistent about rounding up illegal immigrants and deporting them to their home countries—if they have one, in the case of kids born on U.S. soil. He supports “a pause” in legal immigration too.

The real-estate tycoon is also running as the most antitrade candidate since Herbert Hoover. He has assailed the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico and the pending Pacific Rim pact as “disasters” that are “killing us.” Mr. Trump promises to reopen these agreements and do better, though without saying how, apart from his alpha-male negotiating skills. He’s proposing tariffs as high as 30% on imports, and he has already promised to punish Ford and Nabisco for expanding production south of the border.

On taxes, Mr. Trump promises to release a “comprehensive” reform plan soon. So far, though, his only specifics have been some kind of tax relief for the middle class coupled with class warfare. He said in a recent interview that “I would take carried interest out, and I would let people making hundreds of millions of dollars a year pay some tax, because right now they are paying very little tax and I think it’s outrageous.”

Carried interest is the accounting term for a share of profits from investments in general partnerships—private equity, hedge funds, (ahem) real-estate outfits. Congress taxes this at-risk capital at a lower rate than ordinary wages because it only pays out if a fund invests wisely, but this treatment should be reconsidered as part a larger tax reform.

Mr. Trump doesn’t engage these facts, much less anything else that might help the real economy. Carried interest is a sideshow. Much like Mrs. Clinton and President Obama, he’s trying to stoke resentment of the rich, or the merely affluent, or foreigners, people dumber than he is, whoever.
***

This makes it all the passing stranger that some conservatives are embracing Mr. Trump as a truth-teller speaking to the anxieties of middle-American voters. On this view, he’s a hero for challenging the GOP policy consensus of low marginal tax rates, free trade, less regulation and entitlement reform.

Thus instead of modernizing the tax code for the 21st century, offer tax relief that does nothing to reduce complexity and distortion or to improve the incentives to work and invest. Rather than fixing a broken immigration system to attract the hard-working and ambitious, distract low-wage American workers by scapegoating illegal workers. Instead of making the U.S. economy more competitive, attack foreigners and adopt a divisive platform and rhetorical style designed to polarize a justifiably frustrated electorate.

But following Mr. Trump down these cul de sacs—a Canadian border wall?—is a formula to lose and deserve to. After seven years of slow growth and stagnant incomes, the GOP is well positioned to make the case against liberal economic policies while stumping for an optimistic agenda that offers disaffected voters the opportunities that faster growth and tight labor markets create.

But in the anti-reality of the current campaign, the GOP field is attacking each other and giving Hillary a pass. The candidates who break out will invoke something more inspiring than the no-growth future that the front-runners are offering.
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objectivist1
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« Reply #362 on: September 02, 2015, 02:57:05 PM »

The WSJ has made it clear that it despises Trump, for various reasons, I suspect most importantly because he is beholden to no one and thus the investor class fears him.  There is an absolutely vicious piece in the WSJ today that Rush Limbaugh quoted from on his radio program this afternoon.  This article makes a lot of assumptions about Trump's policies before they have even been articulated - such as his tax plan.  We simply don't know what it entails yet.  Then there is this from Dick Morris, which I happen to agree with:

www.dickmorris.com/hillarys-negatives-are-irreparable-trumps-are-not-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/


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"You have enemies?  Good.  That means that you have stood up for something, sometime in your life." - Winston Churchill.
G M
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« Reply #363 on: September 02, 2015, 06:51:28 PM »

Trump has one job. Illegal aliens.

I care less about anything else.
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ppulatie
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« Reply #364 on: September 02, 2015, 06:56:13 PM »

Agreed....and to build a Wall.

Interesting, building the Wall would even be easier than building the Highway System, or in this case, repairing the Highway System.
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PPulatie
Crafty_Dog
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« Reply #365 on: September 04, 2015, 12:08:58 AM »

BTW apparently in various one on one polls, Trump beat all over Rep candidates by sizable margins , , , except for Ben Carson, who beat Donald by 19 points.
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