Dog Brothers Public Forum

DBMA Espanol => Espanol Discussion => Topic started by: Crafty_Dog on June 10, 2005, 07:42:00 AM

Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 10, 2005, 07:42:00 AM
Abro este hilo para platicar temas de interes sobre Mexico.  

Veo en el periodico hoy que se mataron el nuevo jefe de policia de Nuevo Lardeo en su primer dia de trabajo , , ,
Title: Mexico
Post by: Anonymous on June 14, 2005, 01:10:00 PM
Disculpen por favor que lo siguiente sea en ingles , , ,

========================

TERRORISM BRIEF

Increasing Danger on the U.S.-Mexican Border
June 14, 2005 1730 GMT

Mexican President Vicente Fox ordered Mexican army troops and federal agents to detain all 700 officers of the Nuevo Laredo police force June 13 and assume policing duties in the town, just across the Rio Grande from Laredo, Texas. The move, which came in response to a breakdown of law and order in the city, will be extended to other border towns, authorities said. It is indicative of the serious deterioration in the security situation along the U.S.-Mexican border.

Assailants killed Nuevo Laredo Police chief Alejandro Dominguez on June 8, just nine hours after he took over the job. Dominquez was not accompanied by a personal protection detail at the time, meaning he was either arrogant, naive about crime in the city, or under the protection of one of the city's criminal gangs who then betrayed him. One of Nuevo Laredo's many drug cartels might have killed him to make the statement that the cartels, not the police, control the city.

A federal investigation of Dominguez's killing caused tensions to rise
between federal officers and local police, and on June 10 shooting erupted
between the two groups, leaving a plainclothes federal agent wounded. In
Chihuahua city, capital of the border state of Chihuahua, three gunmen
assassinated the operations chief of police on June 13.

Corrupt police, growing anti-U.S. sentiment in Mexico and a war raging
between rival drug gangs have made the border increasingly dangerous for U.S. citizens and corporations. Mexican National Police reported 550
drug-related homicides in Mexico in the first five months of 2005, most of
them occurring in towns along the border. In Nuevo Laredo alone, more than 60 killings related to organized crime have occurred, seven police officers among them.

Nuevo Laredo is a battleground for several rival drug gangs, most notably
the Juarez Cartel, the Tijuana Cartel, a cartel from western Sinaloa state,
and the Gulf Cartel from Matamoros. As the cartels battled over turf, they
have infiltrated Nuevo Laredo's police force and placed corrupt police
officers on their payrolls.

Growing anti-U.S. sentiment in Mexico, stoked by election-year rhetoric and negative publicity over a group of American vigilantes that organized its own border patrol in Arizona, also contributes to a dangerous situation for Americans on the border. To further complicate the situation, the so-called Minutemen are soon to expand their activities from Arizona into New Mexico and Texas.

In one sign of the increasing anti-U.S. sentiment, officials in the border
cities of Tijuana and Mexicali recently revoked permission for U.S.
corporations to bring U.S. security details into the country, saying
security must be provided by Mexicans. The city officials invoked a federal
law against such practices, although U.S. embassy officials who contacted
the Mexican government on behalf of U.S. corporations were unable to verify the existence of such a law. In any case, if the law does exist, it was not enforced before mid-May. Many U.S. firms with dealings in Mexico are now scrambling to find trustworthy Mexican companies to provide security for their personnel.

Few Mexican security firms, however, meet U.S. standards. These companies consist of former police officers or off-duty officers who possibly continue to maintain corrupt relationships with organized crime. At the same time, Mexico offers no reliable process for conducting background checks on these officers, suggesting that the only way to ensure reliable security is to develop a personal relationship with a local firm over time. In the meantime, U.S. corporate personnel are facing a higher risk of falling victim to crime in Mexico.

American tourists visiting U.S. border cities also are facing increased
threats. Dozens of reports have appeared over the past 18 months of U.S.
citizens going missing in Mexico during short trips across the border. With
the increase in activity by drug gangs, many of the missing likely ran afoul
of organized crime.  Mexican police so far have proven ineffective at solving the disappearances.

With drug wars raging on both sides of the border -- and law and order
broken down in Nuevo Laredo to the point in which the army has been sent in -- the U.S.-Mexican border has become a dangerous place.
Title: Mexico
Post by: omar on June 15, 2005, 09:20:36 AM
Hola, esta es informaci?n del estado del Narco en M?xico, esta nota aparece en un diario de gran circulaci?n llamado la jornada, no apunte la fecha, pero es de la semana pasada:

Informe secreto de la PGR confirma que son los principales introductores de coca?na a EU
C?rteles mexicanos, lejos de ser desmantelados, se consolidan
 Existen en el pa?s al menos 100 bandas dedicadas al narcotr?fico; 85% operan en la frontera norte
ALFREDO MENDEZ ORTIZ
Al menos en los ?ltimos cinco a?os, los c?rteles mexicanos se han consolidado como los principales introductores de coca?na en el mercado estadunidense, se?ala la Procuradur?a General de la Rep?blica (PGR) a partir de informaci?n de las agencias Central de Inteligencia (CIA) y antidrogas (DEA) de Estados Unidos.
Asimismo, agrega que en el pa?s existen al menos 100 bandas y grupos dedicados al narcotr?fico, 85 por ciento de los cuales operan en la frontera norte, y que entre las principales organizaciones delictivas destacan los c?rteles de Ciudad Ju?rez, Sinaloa, Tijuana, del Golfo y del Milenio, as? como otros de menor ''impacto delictivo'', los cuales b?sicamente operan en el centro y sur del pa?s y se dedican a fomentar el consumo y distribuci?n de drogas entre j?venes y ni?os.
Pr?xima reuni?n de procuradores
De acuerdo con un informe de la PGR sobre la situaci?n actual de la delincuencia organizada en M?xico, elaborado a petici?n del nuevo procurador, Daniel Cabeza de Vaca, la dependencia federal busca reforzar los v?nculos de colaboraci?n con autoridades de inteligencia de Estados Unidos.
Una de las finalidades de la PGR es elaborar ''estrategias espec?ficas contra el crimen organizado'', y enfrentar con ellas la ola de violencia que ha aumentado considerablemente en territorio mexicano en lo que va de este a?o.
Adem?s -refiere el documento al que tuvo acceso La Jornada-, en los pr?ximos d?as M?xico y Estados Unidos fijar?n la fecha para una reuni?n entre sus procuradores (Daniel Cabeza de Vaca y Alberto R. Gonzales, respectivamente), a partir de la cual se pondr? de manifiesto la intenci?n de las autoridades federales de nuestro pa?s (PGR y Secretar?a de Seguridad P?blica) de obtener el apoyo necesario para combatir al narcotr?fico.
Otro de los fines buscados por la dependencia federal es incrementar la cercan?a con autoridades policiacas y de procuraci?n de justicia estatales y municipales, lo que permitir? profundizar los alcances del combate contra los narcotraficantes.
El informe refiere que la PGR tiene registro de que los c?rteles mexicanos, lejos de ser desmantelados, se han consolidado como los principales introductores de coca?na en el mercado estadunidense. Por lo menos esto ha ocurrido desde finales de 1999, de acuerdo con reportes de la DEA y la CIA.
La informaci?n precisa que en el vecino pa?s b?sicamente existen seis zonas por las que se trasladan de manera cotidiana diversos vol?menes de coca?na, cuatro de las cuales est?n dominadas por grupos delictivos que operan en M?xico, en tanto que los otros dos son compartidos por c?rteles de Colombia, Rep?blica Dominicana y Hait?.
Seg?n el documento, de car?cter confidencial, en M?xico existen al menos 100 c?rteles, y 85 por ciento operan en la frontera norte. Entre las principales organizaciones delictivas destacan los c?rteles de Ciudad Ju?rez, Sinaloa, Tijuana, del Golfo y del Milenio, as? como algunos de menor importancia que operan en el centro y sur del pa?s, conformados por pocos integrantes.
Las organizaciones menos importantes est?n dedicadas principalmente al narcomenudeo y recepci?n de coca?na procedente de Centroam?rica.
Por otra parte, funcionarios de la PGR consultados por este diario indicaron que Jos? Luis Santiago Vasconcelos, titular de la Subprocuradur?a de Investigaci?n Especializada en Delincuencia Organizada (SIEDO), recibi? la instrucci?n del nuevo procurador de ''reforzar'' el combate al narcotr?fico, y para ello le pidi? ''estrechar v?nculos con las fuerzas armadas, as? como con autoridades de Estados Unidos''.
El pasado viernes Vasconcelos acudi? a Washington para reunirse con autoridades de la DEA y de la CIA, a fin de acordar los canales de cooperaci?n e incrementar el intercambio de informaci?n.
Asimismo, las fuentes consultadas refirieron que durante las reuniones recientes entre Cabeza de Vaca y Vasconcelos, ?ste inform? a su superior que la lucha contra el crimen organizado se efect?a en dos v?as: la primera, combatiendo las c?lulas de delincuentes que fomentan el narcomenudeo e inducen a adolescentes y ni?os a dedicarse a la distribuci?n y consumo de estupefacientes. La segunda, identificando y persiguiendo a los l?deres o cabezas de los c?rteles, y que incluso tienen v?nculos con grupos delictivos de otras naciones.
Adem?s, el nuevo procurador le manifest? a Vasconcelos su ''gran preocupaci?n'' por el reciente incremento en el n?mero de ejecuciones perpetradas a nivel nacional, entre cuyas v?ctimas se encuentran servidores p?blicos y periodistas. Ayer este diario document? que, durante la semana pasada, se cometieron 29 asesinatos vinculados al crimen organizado, siete de los cuales ocurrieron el s?bado, y provocaron la muerte de dos estudiantes y un agente de la Polic?a Federal Preventiva (PFP).
De acuerdo con el informe de la PGR, tanto la recomposici?n de los c?rteles como el incremento en las ejecuciones a nivel nacional se deben al ''combate frontal'' y ''acciones constantes'' de la dependencia en contra de los integrantes de grupos delictivos.
Entre estas acciones destacan detenciones de diversos capos del narcotr?fico, como Osiel C?rdenas Guill?n, l?der del c?rtel del Golfo, y Armando Valencia Cornelio, El Juanito, uno de los pilares del c?rtel del Milenio, que encabezan los hermanos Valencia.
Sin embargo, la dependencia reconoce, aunque no de manera oficial, que pese a que se ha detenido a miembros de varios grupos delictivos 'importantes a nivel nacional'', eso ha provocado la ''conformaci?n de c?lulas'' que han hecho m?s complejo el combate al narcotr?fico.
Entre las asignaturas pendientes en la procuradur?a destaca la ubicaci?n y captura de varios capos que enfrentan ?rdenes de aprehensi?n o que se fugaron de alg?n penal federal o local, entre los cuales uno de los m?s sonados es Joaqu?n Guzm?n Loera, El Chapo, libre para operar el c?rtel de Sinaloa, tras fugarse en enero de 2001 del penal de Puente Grande, en Jalisco.
Del c?rtel de Ju?rez se encuentran pr?fugos Vicente Carrillo Fuentes y Vicente Carrillo Leyva, sus l?deres principales, as? como varios sicarios y operadores financieros. Del de Tijuana, Francisco Javier Arellano F?lix, El Tigrillo, de quien se dice actualmente encabeza el grupo delictivo. Del c?rtel del Golfo, Juan Manuel Garza Rend?n, uno de los operadores de Osiel C?rdenas Guill?n.
Una de las metas de la PGR al reforzar los v?nculos de cooperaci?n e intercambio de informaci?n entre autoridades de M?xico y Estados Unidos es que el pa?s cuente con polic?as federales especializados en el combate al narcotr?fico.
Polic?as de elite
Derivado de lo anterior, al menos 10 integrantes de la AFI, que fueron entrenados por la DEA y por la polic?a espa?ola, se encuentran en Coahuila y Sonora desde el mes pasado para enfrentar el resurgimiento de ejecuciones y actividades ligadas al crimen organizado. Esta acci?n, dijo la dependencia federal, es s?lo el inicio de lo que se planea hacer durante los pr?ximos meses en los estados con gran presencia de narcotraficantes, como Chihuahua, Nuevo Le?n, Tamaulipas, Sinaloa, Colima, Michoac?n, Yucat?n y Quintana Roo.
La informaci?n obtenida por este diario revela que, adem?s de la regi?n norte de M?xico, existe entre las autoridades federales la preocupaci?n por un posible ''calentamiento'' en la zona sur-sureste, por la presencia de bandas que pretenden asumir el control del narcotr?fico, principalmente en el Caribe y en la pen?nsula de Yucat?n.
Asimismo se ha documentado que por esa regi?n ingresa aproximadamente 66 por ciento del total de la coca?na que despu?s es trasladada por territorio mexicano a Estados Unidos.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Anonymous on June 28, 2005, 05:07:33 PM
Gracias por ese articulo interesante.  Ahora he aqui otro en ingles.  :oops:
===================

Mexico: Fox's Uphill Battle to Win the Drug War
Summary

Mexican President Vicente Fox recently deployed some 1,500 soldiers and federal police agents to Nuevo Laredo and seven other lawless cities in an operation that will be expanded in coming weeks to other parts of Mexico. However, the Fox government's "Operation Safe Mexico" will fail to dismantle Mexico's powerful drug cartels or contain escalating violence associated with rival drug-trafficking organizations' permanent efforts to rule Mexico's $50 billion-a-year illegal-drug industry. Moreover, an emerging crack-cocaine epidemic will drive Mexico's crime rates sharply higher in coming years.

Analysis

The government of Mexican President Vicente Fox recently launched "Operation Safe Mexico," deploying more than 1,500 army soldiers and federal police agents June 13 to the northern cities of Nuevo Laredo, Matamoros, Reynosa, Culiacan, Mazatlan, Mexicali and Tijuana to confront drug crime.

Mexico's crime-related national security crisis will be the biggest political issue in the country during Fox's final year in power until presidential elections scheduled for July 2, 2006, and will have a spillover effect on U.S. states bordering Mexico. Complicating things for Mexico, the crisis will intensify during a period in which Mexican economic growth will be slowing. In the face of these challenges, Fox's efforts to stymie the drug trade and its associated violence will fall short and will be complicated by an emerging crack-cocaine epidemic.

Fox initially deployed troops in the Mexican states of Tamaulipas, Baja California, Sinaloa and Sonora. Officials with the Mexican Attorney General's office, however, said deployments soon would expand to the state of Mexico, Mexico City (the federal district) and several states in southern Mexico, reportedly including Chiapas, Guerrero and Yucatan.

A presidential spokesman described Operation Safe Mexico as a two-pronged initiative. One part of the plan calls for aggressive deployments of troops and federal agents to secure cities with roadblocks, accompanied by vehicle searches and heavily armed patrols intended to suppress criminal activities. The second part calls for wholesale purges of corrupt police at the local, state and federal level. Thousands of police officers likely will be fired in the purge. While Mexican Foreign Ministry spokesmen routinely dismiss U.S. criticism of Mexico's security problems as an unwelcome intrusion in Mexican affairs, a spokesman for the Attorney General's office acknowledged recently that drug traffickers have corrupted and penetrated practically every local and state law enforcement agency in northern Mexico. The corruption also extends to federal police, generally afflicting law enforcement across the country.

At least seven major Mexican drug-trafficking organizations operate along the U.S.-Mexican border. Fox launched Operation Safe Mexico to end a vicious war between these rival drug cartels that began in 2003 after the dismantling of the Tijuana cartel upon the death and arrest of the cartel's two top leaders, Ramon and Benjamin Arellano-Felix. The chief combatants in this cartel war include Osiel Cardenas, the jailed leader of the Gulf cartel who is battling an alliance of drug traffickers that includes Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman of the Sinaloa drug cartel, Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and Juan Jose "El Azul" Esparragoza.

Mexican federal anti-drug officials estimate that close to 1,500 people have been killed in the cartel war since 2003. During roughly the same period, about 1,750 U.S. troops have been killed in Iraq. Since the beginning of 2005, Mexican police agencies have tallied more than 600 killings related to the war between the rival cartels. Human rights groups, on the other hand, estimate the warring cartels have killed close to 900 people in the first six months of 2005.

Cardenas and the Gulf cartel control the drug trade in northeastern Mexico, which is headquartered in Nuevo Laredo. Cardenas also is trying to seize control of drug-trafficking routes and activities in Baja California and Sinaloa, controlled until 2003 by the Arellano-Felix family's Tijuana cartel. However, Guzman's Sinaloa drug cartel and his associates Zambada and Esparragoza oppose Cardenas' bid for control of Baja California and Sinaloa. This group, the Sinaloa alliance -- also known as "the federation" by some Mexican police officials -- in turn is trying to wrest control of Nuevo Laredo's drug trade from Cardenas and the Gulf cartel.

Nuevo Laredo and Tijuana represent the strategic prizes in Mexico's drug-cartel wars. The U.S.-Mexican border crossing at Laredo-Nuevo Laredo accounts for 38 percent of total U.S.-Mexican trade. More than 10,000 trucks and 1,200 rail cars per day cross the four bridges joining Laredo and Nuevo Laredo in both directions. Tijuana ranks No. 2 in terms of cargo volume and cross-border traffic after Nuevo Laredo. There are close to 2,000 transportation and customs-brokerage companies between Tijuana and Nuevo Laredo. Whichever drug cartel controls these cities, including their local police forces, controls the Mexican drug-trafficking industry along the entire U.S.-Mexican border.

The impact of Mexico's security crisis over the coming year on U.S. states such as Texas and California that border Mexico will be greater. The resources of local law enforcement in U.S. communities and counties abutting the U.S.-Mexican border will come under increasing strain by Mexican drug-related violence that spills into U.S. territory. The integrity of local U.S. law enforcement in the border area also will face an increasing challenge from Mexican drug traffickers seeking to corrupt police in the United States, just as they have done with Mexican police.

Mexico's security crisis and election-year uncertainties also will cause foreign companies to postpone or cancel investment projects in Mexico over the coming year. Such fallout will come along the lines of Toyota Motor Corp.'s recent cancellation of a $445 million project in northern Mexico because of security concerns. Instead, the Japanese automaker will build its new factory, employing 1,500 people, in Ontario.

Mexico's crime-related security crisis will continue to increase over the coming year before the scheduled July 2, 2006, presidential elections for several reasons. First, the Fox government does not have the law enforcement resources to battle an illegal narcotics industry that produces more revenue than oil exports. Mexico's illegal drug trade generated more than $50 billion in revenue in 2004 for the country's drug cartels, while oil exports the same year totaled slightly more than $21 billion. These totals afford Mexican drug barons the firepower and cash flow to kill and corrupt law enforcement.

Second, Fox lacks the political capital to persuade the Mexican Congress to pass tougher anti-crime legislation and to earmark substantial funding to expand the country's law-enforcement agencies. Opposition parties in Congress already are criticizing Operation Safe Mexico as an illegal security initiative because army troops are stopping and searching vehicles at random -- without probable cause or legal search warrants.

Economic need represents a third reason why Mexico's crime-related security crisis will intensify. The economy's growth is slowing in 2005 as a result of slowing U.S. growth, higher U.S. interest rates, competition from China and a Mexican regulatory environment that discourages some foreign investment. Some Mexican economists estimate that fewer than 2 million Mexicans in a country with more than 100 million inhabitants earn more than $1,000 a month. Sluggish economic growth and high poverty rates assure a steady supply of new recruits into the Mexican drug-trafficking industry.

The cartel wars between Cardenas and his rivals from Sinaloa will continue until one side kills off the other side and absorbs its drug trafficking operations. This process could take another year or two before the body counts in Tamaulipas, Baja California and Sinaloa drop.

Making matters worse for Mexico, the nation also is in the early stages of a crack-cocaine epidemic that could last a decade, and could be more violent than the U.S. crack epidemic of the 1980s. Crack is powerfully addictive, and crimes such as armed robbery, assault, carjackings and murder will increase in many Mexican cities as the country's crack epidemic gains momentum.

Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.
Title: Narcotr?fico
Post by: 9-terremoto on June 29, 2005, 10:14:53 AM
Hola todos.

Duro hablar del narcotr?fico en M?xico y USA, pues esto implica hablar de corrupci?n. Obviamente, los due?os del negocio tienen suficiente dinero para repartir a las autoridades y cada qui?n trata de hacer su agosto (ayer volvi? a reportarse un "error" de ?una tonelada! en el conteo de una carga de coca).

Independientemente de las luchas por el poder, por ah? esciribi? William Burroughs, el escritor adicto, por lo menos durante 20 a?os, a drogas "duras", palabras m?s, palabras menos, que es fantasiosos creer que se acabar? con el narcotr?fico atacando s?lo a los narcotraficantes, pues mientras exista alguien dispuesto a hacer LO QUE SEA por una dosis, el narcotr?fico continuar?.

Gracias
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 07, 2005, 04:28:06 PM
Un "amigo de internet" se ha escrito:

Hi Guys

I've been asked to prepare a risk/threat assessment for a visit to Mexico by a client. Not the capital or any of the major cities, just the tourist spots (Cancun,Xcaret, Tulum, Riviera regions, etc).
I am working on the major details, but just wondered if anyone here had "hard" information/experiences regarding crime levels (both organised gangs and street attacks) as well as no-go areas at these destinations.

Also what is the status regarding personal weapons carry (knife, asp, etc) in Mexico - any ideas.

Any information would be greatly appreciated and a real big help. Thanks in advance.


?Alguien aqui se le puede ayudar?
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 11, 2005, 10:15:41 PM
!Hijole!  !Otra vez en ingles!  Comentarios?
==========================


Mexico: The New Generation of 'Revolutionary' Militants
July 11, 2005 20 04  GMT



Summary

A faction of the Mexican militant group Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) has claimed responsibility for the July 7 killing in Acapulco of Jose Ruben Robles Catalan, former secretary of Guerrero state. The faction, which appears to be a younger, more militant EPR offshoot, is out to make a name for itself.

Analysis

The Nation is First (LPEP) faction of Mexico's Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) took responsibility July 11 for the assassination of Jose Ruben Robles Catalan, a former Guerrero state secretary who was shot nine times outside an Acapulco hotel July 7. The group also said it would continue to target those it believes were responsible for the 1995 deaths of 17 farmers in the Guerrero town of Aguas Blancas. Former Gov. Ruben Figueroa, prosecutor Antonio Alcocer, police chief Gustavo Olea and Figueroa's political ally Hector Vicario Castrejon were specifically named as targets.

Founded in 1964, the EPR remained a low-level threat in Guerrero until the mid-1990s, when the Aguas Blancas massacre and other violence in Guerrero provoked expanded recruitment efforts by a new generation of EPR militants to bring more radical members into the fold. Since the EPR resurfaced, its main tactics have been sporadic drive-by shootings or grenades tossed at police stations, mostly around the Acapulco tourist area. One such incident occurred as recently as June 28, the 10th anniversary of the Aguas Blancas incident. The appearance of the LPEP faction and its new tactics nine days after such a lackluster anniversary attack suggests that not everyone in the EPR is content with the group's current status.

The EPR fissure most likely divides the old-guard leadership, whose members are now in their mid- to late-50s, and a generation of fighters in their 20s who joined during Mexico's political turmoil in the 1990s. The LPEP -- which takes its name from a quote by Vicente Guerrero, Mexico's second president and namesake of the state -- likely is controlled by the younger generation. This faction will seek to first increase the capabilities and notoriety of the EPR within Guerrero and other southern Mexican states such as Oaxaca and Chiapas in hopes of making the group a force across Mexico. The group also likely will try to raise its profile in Mexico state and the federal district surrounding Mexico City.

Should the EPR-LPEP manage to kill other targets, the Mexican army likely will crack down in Guerrero, and possibly Oaxaca and Chiapas. This could generate more political violence in Mexico's poor south and alienate other armed opposition groups throughout the area, such as the Zapatista National Liberation Army in Chiapas. Regional destabilization on that scale could indeed be an EPR objective.

The killing of Robles Catalan, however, does not indicate that the EPR is capable of significantly threatening Mexican security. Although there were reports in December 2004 that the EPR had been agitating Mexico City slum residents to participate in a larger, countrywide campaign of militancy, Stratfor has said, and continues to believe, that the EPR poses no credible threat to the capital. The increasing violence of the LPEP faction should warrant more precaution from foreign tourists, however, just in case the EPR-LPEP begins kidnapping people for political reasons.

If the LPEP is successful in assassinating another one of its targets, it could garner enough publicity to more effectively expand its operations, perhaps even to establish a base in Mexico City. Until then, however, the EPR and its factions will remain a localized threat within Guerrero, mainly to Figueroa and his old partners.
==========

y, desde Diciembre

======

The Real Threat of Violence in Mexico City
December 27, 2004 15 45  GMT



Summary

Mexico City's governor has discredited an intelligence report allegedly written by his public security chief that links a small militant group from Guerrero state to crimes in the capital. Although the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) militant group exists, and may be proselytizing politically in Mexico City's slums, the group does not have the urban tactical capabilities to engage in politically motivated violence. Mexico City residents and visitors face far greater threats from ordinary criminals and corrupt cops than from EPR militants.

Analysis

Mexican Federal District Gov. Manuel Lopez Obrador has denied a report in the Mexico City daily Reforma that says cells of the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) militant group are operating in Mexico City, saying there is "no evidence" of such activity. Separately, Public Security Secretary Joel Ortega denied that his office had written a 21-page report -- on which the Reforma article allegedly was based -- claiming that the EPR is actively recruiting and raising funds in Mexico City's poor slums, and has staged bank robberies and kidnappings in the capital. Federal District chief prosecutor Bernardo Batiz said "not a single crime" in Mexico City has been attributed to the EPR.

Lopez Obrador, Ortega and Batiz stopped short of claiming the Reforma report is false. Reforma managing editors said the newspaper stands by its Dec. 22 report. It is possible that the alleged report is, in fact, a real official document prepared in secret by the federal district's public security secretariat. However, its assertion that the EPR is involved in violent criminal activities in the state of Mexico and the federal district likely is inaccurate. EPR forces do not directly threaten residents and visitors in Mexico City. The real threat of violent crime comes from ordinary criminals, professional kidnappers and bank robbers that flourish thanks to the incapacity of an inefficient, undermanned, poorly commanded and frequently corrupt police force.

The alleged Public Security Secretariat document reportedly was prepared several days after two undercover police officers were beaten and burned to death in a poor Mexico City neighborhood by an angry mob that mistook the police officers for child kidnappers. The report makes no mention of this particular incident, although some news media had hinted that police officers in the area had the EPR under surveillance in the area at the time.

According to Reforma, the report states that the EPR's presence has been detected in eight Federal District municipalities and seven municipalities in the state of Mexico. The Federal District municipalities reportedly include Iztapalapa, Gustavo Madero, Xochimilco, Alvaro Obregon, Tlalpan, Magdalena Contreras, Cuajimalpa and also Tlahualc, where the two police officials were murdered Nov. 23. The Mexico state municipalities are Nezahualcoyotl, Ecatepec, Naucalpan, Tlalnepantla, Ixtapaluca, Chimalhuacan and Los Reyes.

The report also states that the EPR is raising funds by carrying out ransom kidnappings and bank robberies in the Federal District. However, Batiz emphatically dismissed any connection between the EPR and crimes such as kidnapping and bank robbery in Mexico City. These crimes, he said, involve "common criminals that start hijacking vehicles, assaulting people and then ascend to kidnapping. We have not found any link between these crimes and any armed guerrilla groups.

Lopez Obrador and his leftist Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) are seen as leading contenders to win the presidency of Mexico in the 2006 national elections. President Vicente Fox's National Action Party (PAN) and the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) have a strong interest in undermining Lopez Obrador's electoral prospects. Between now and the 2006 elections both the PAN and PRI repeatedly will seek to bring Lopez Obrador's political star down by linking him to corruption or portraying him as a weak leader. Confirming the EPR's active presence in the federal district could be pitched as a sign of weakness that renders Lopez Obrador unfit for the presidency. This may explain why Lopez Obrador led the charge to discredit and dismiss the alleged report prepared by his own public security chief.

The EPR is the military wing of the Democratic Popular Revolutionary Party (PDPR), a small regional militant organization based in the southern state of Guerrero. The EPR officially announced its existence in June 1996 in the community of Aguas Blancas in Guerrero, where it declared war against the country's ruling economic and political elites and called for an armed Marxist-Leninist revolution and the creation of a centrally planned socialist state. However, the EPR is not a new revolutionary movement in Mexico.

The EPR was originally founded in 1964 in Guerrero, during the early years of the Cuban Revolution. It initially emerged as an armed response by poor landless peasants against wealthy local landowners and politicians in Guerrero state. However, although the EPR has killed close to two dozen people since mid-1996 and has conducted small-scale attacks in several southern and central states against military and police outposts, public buildings and power stations, it has never threatened Mexican national security.

The EPR mainly is a very low-level threat in Guerrero state, where its armed actions have involved local landowners and political strongmen with ties to the opposition PRI, which ruled the country for seven decades until Fox became president in 2000. Its presence in such activities has been detected in at least eight states since 1996. This means it is possible that EPR activists are proselytizing politically in poor Mexico City slums. The group has been seeking for years to establish a political presence inside the country's capital region.

However, the EPR does not currently have the manpower, weaponry, organization and tactical capability to conduct offensive operations against targets in Mexico City. It is even less likely that EPR cells are engaged in bank robberies and ransom kidnappings in the country's capital. Federal and local law enforcement officials in the Mexico state and the federal district are certain that professional criminals -- not armed political militants -- perpetrate the frequent kidnappings and bank robberies in Mexico City. These officials point out that the EPR is a rural-based insurgency, not an urban militant group. Stratfor agrees.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty Dog on July 30, 2005, 09:07:32 AM
Otra vez in ingles :oops:  

?Comentarios?

La puerta siempre esta' abierta para articulos en espanol.
---------------------------------------------------------

U.S. shuts consulate in chaotic Mexican border city Sat Jul 30,12:43 AM ET
 


NUEVO LAREDO, Mexico (Reuters) - The United States is closing temporarily its consulate in this lawless Mexican border city after rival drug gangs clashed with bazookas, hand grenades and heavy machine-gun fire.

 
"A violent battle involving unusually advanced weaponry took place between armed criminal factions last night in Nuevo Laredo," U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza said on Friday.

He said he was ordering the consulate in Nuevo Laredo closed for all of next week and would only reopen it if the security situation improved.

Garza called on Mexico to swiftly bring the situation under control.

Mexico reacted angrily to Garza's words, saying both countries shared a responsibility to fight drug crime.

"Repeated public statements by the U.S. Embassy in Mexico about the border situation in no way help bilateral efforts to end border crime," the Mexican Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The latest battle erupted late on Thursday when about 30 masked gunmen opened fire on a suspected drug-cartel safe house in Nuevo Laredo, across the Rio Grande from Laredo, Texas, blasting off its doors and strafing the facade with bullets.

Police and witnesses said six men trapped in the house returned fire in a gun battle that raged for 20 minutes, littering the street with spent cartridges and sending neighbors diving for cover, although no one was killed.

"I grabbed my daughter tight ... and we hid under the bed until the explosions stopped," said one neighbor, who identified himself as Carlos.

Nuevo Laredo is a key trade hub but it is also gripped by warring drug cartels seeking control of lucrative cocaine, marijuana and amphetamine smuggling routes.

Dozens of people, including 18 police officers, have been murdered here this year in a war between well-armed gangs from western Sinaloa state and the local Gulf cartel.

The State Department has this year repeatedly warned American citizens not to travel to Nuevo Laredo, a city of 330,000 people that has long been notorious for drug crime and kidnappings.

Public order lurched to new lows in early June when gunmen shot and killed the city's new police chief just hours after he was sworn into office.

The government then sent troops and federal police to take over Nuevo Laredo, and the city's entire local police force was suspended for investigations into links with the drug barons.

Despite the heavy presence of army troops, more than 20 people have since been shot dead.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Anonymous on August 01, 2005, 11:38:21 AM
Ausencia de investigaci?n.

El problema de inseguridad en M?xico seg?n varios analistas, radica en la ausencia total de un proceso de investigaci?n , la instancia encargada de realizarla a nivel federal es la Proci?uradur?a General de la Rep?blica (PGR) y a nivel local (por estados) la Procuraduria General de Justicia (PGJ), ambas generalmente se dedican a acciones contestatarias y de disuasi?n (labor indicada para los policas vestidos de azul), en el mejor de los casos y de extorsi?n en el peor. Incluso en los recientes "operativos " en Tamaulipas, donde participa el ejercito, la AFI. las corporaciones mensionadas, la PFP, etc la presencia solo es disuasoria y no hay investigaci?n; ademas se origina el fenomeno de cucaracha y las operaciones ilegales se trasladan a otro sitio.

La prueba de la ausencia de investigaci?n es la reciente liberaci?n del hermano del expresidente Salinas (por falta de pruebas) y la orden de una Magistrada de suspensi?n del proceso de Echeverria. Los analistas opinan que estas personas al tener acceso a abogados pueden aprovechar los "huecos" en la presentaci?n de pruebas de la fiscal?a y pueden salir a pesar de lo fraglante de los delitos. Los ?nicos que recienten el estado de derecho son los ladrones comunes (en 1998 fu? muy sonado el caso de un robo de un pollo rostizado, unas papas y una soda que se castg? con cerca de 5 a?os de prisi?n).

Por ?ltimo mensionaron que "el ataque a solo una organizaci?n criminal crea vacios de poder que van a ser ocupados por otras organizaciones criminales con la consiguiente violencia"
Title: Mexico
Post by: mauricio on August 02, 2005, 10:13:53 AM
  La violencia en Tamaulipas traspas? la franja entre M?xico y EU, dice DEA

Francisco Sandoval

     La violencia que se vive en el municipio de Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, ha traspasado la franja fronteriza que divide a M?xico y Estados Unidos, revelan informes oficiales de la Agencia Antidrogas de los Estados Unidos (DEA, por sus siglas en ingl?s).
De acuerdo con el ?ltimo informe de la dependencia, la situaci?n que impera en localidades como Ciudad Ju?rez, Chihuahua, y Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, ha provocado que los c?rteles del narcotr?fico no solo contin?en con el trasiego masivo de droga hac?a Estados Unidos, sino que utilicen ciudades como El Paso, Texas, para almacenar este tipo de sustancias.
Los informes de la DEA, incluso, se?alan que esa zona del pa?s es ?vital? para los capos del narcotr?fico mexicanos, colombianos y dominicanos que operan en territorio nacional, pues su ubicaci?n y cercan?a con Estados Unidos , otorga una ?ventaja natural? para la distribuci?n de droga a lo largo del territorio estadunidense.
En ese sentido, la Agencia Antidrogas precisa que el oeste de Texas sirve como ?entrada? de las distintas organizaciones criminales que pasan las drogas al vecino pa?s, y que tienen como destino final las ciudades m?s importantes de la Uni?n Americana.
Precisan que la frontera entre Texas y M?xico abarca mil 252 kil?metros de largo, lo que representa el 40 por ciento de la franja que divide a ambos pa?ses.
Por esa zona las organizaciones mexicanas utilizan las carreteras este/ oeste y norte/sur que se entrecruzan con la divisi?n de la ciudad de El Paso, Texas, lo que permite a los capos trasladarse de un estado a otro, sin mucho riesgo de ser aprehendidos.
Reconocen adem?s que los c?rteles utilizan construcciones y edificios en la ciudad de El Paso, Texas, para almacenar y esconder la droga, y posteriormente, con la ayuda de sus distribuidores, transportarla v?a terrestre y a?rea a los destinos programados.
A su vez, la DEA reconoce que peque?as empresas de El Paso, Texas, tambi?n son utilizadas para ?lavar? cantidades significativas de dinero, producto del narcotr?fico.
Para realizar las acciones de vigilancia, en los 54 condados de Texas que colindan con nuestro pa?s, la DEA ha destinado a 117 agentes que detecten y combatan el trasiego y proliferaci?n de los capos mexicanos en territorio estadunidense.
De tal suerte, los agentes federales tienen como prioridad trabajar en tareas de investigaci?n en 80 puntos que son considerados como territorios clave para el tr?fico de la droga. Varios de ellos colindantes con las ramificaciones del r?o Bravo.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 02, 2005, 10:21:12 AM
Guau:

Muchisimas gracias por los articulos con procedencia de Mexico compartidos aqui.  Lamento que otra vez poner otro en ingles.  Si alguien tiene programa de traduccion, se le agradeceria mucho su traduccion por los quienes no leen el ingles.

Tambien lamento no tener tiempo en este momento para ofrecer mis pensamientos sobre estos graves acontecimientos, pero cuando yo tenga el tiempo para hacerlo, si' lo hare.

Crafty Dog
==============

http://www.washtimes.com/national/2...22047-2623r.htm

Mexican mercenaries expand base into U.S.

By Jerry Seper
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
August 1, 2005


A renegade band of Mexican military deserters, offering $50,000 bounties for the assassination of U.S. law-enforcement officers, has expanded its base of operations into the United States to protect loads of cocaine and marijuana being brought into America by Mexican smugglers, authorities said.
The deserters, known as the "Zetas," trained in the United States as an elite force of anti-drug commandos, but have since signed on as mercenaries for Mexican narcotics traffickers and have recruited an army of followers, many of whom are believed to be operating in Texas, Arizona, California and Florida.
Working mainly for the Gulf Cartel, one of Mexico's most dangerous drug-trafficking organizations, as many as 200 Zeta members are thought to be involved, including former Mexican federal, state and local police. They are suspected in more than 90 deaths of rival gang members and others, including police officers, in the past two years in a violent drug war to control U.S. smuggling routes.
The organization's hub, law-enforcement authorities said, is Nuevo Laredo, a border city of 300,000 across from Laredo, Texas. It is the most active port-of-entry along the U.S.-Mexico border, with more than 6,000 trucks crossing daily into Texas, carrying about 40 percent of Mexico's total exports.
Authorities said the Zetas control the city despite efforts by Mexican President Vicente Fox to restore order. He sent hundreds of Mexican troops and federal agents to the city in March to set up highway checkpoints and conduct raids on suspected Zeta locations.
Despite the presence of law enforcement, more than 100 killings have occurred in the city since Jan. 1, including that of former Police Chief Alejandro Dominguez, 52, gunned down June 8, just seven hours after he was sworn in. The city's new chief, Omar Pimentel, 37, escaped death during a drive-by shooting on his first day, although one of his bodyguards was killed.
Authorities said the Zetas operate over a wide area of the U.S.-Mexico border and are suspected in at least three drug-related slayings in the Dallas area. They said as many as 10 Zeta members are operating inside Texas as Gulf Cartel assassins, seeking to protect nearly $10 million in daily drug transactions.
In March, the Justice Department said the Zetas were involved "in multiple assaults and are believed to have hired criminal gangs" in the Dallas area for contract killings. The department said the organization was spreading from Texas to California and Florida and was establishing drug-trafficking routes it was willing to protect "at any cost."
Just last month, the department issued a new warning to law-enforcement authorities in Arizona and California, urging them to be on the lookout for Zeta members. An intelligence bulletin said a search for new drug-smuggling routes in the two states by the organization could bring new violence to the areas.
The number of assaults on U.S. Border Patrol agents along the 260 miles of U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona known as the Tucson sector has increased dramatically this year, including a May 30 shooting near Nogales, Ariz., in which two agents were seriously wounded during an ambush a mile north of the border.
Their assailants were dressed in black commando-type clothing, used high-powered weapons and hand-held radios to point out the agents' location, and withdrew from the area using military-style cover and concealment tactics to escape back into Mexico.
Santa Cruz County Sheriff Tony Estrada in Nogales said his investigators found commando clothing, food, water and other "sophisticated equipment" at the ambush site.
Since Oct. 1, the start of the fiscal year, there have been 196 assaults on Border Patrol agents in the Tucson sector, including 24 shootings. During the same period last year, 92 assaults were reported, with five shootings. The sector is the busiest alien- and drug-trafficking corridor in the country.
U.S. intelligence officials have described the Zetas as an expanding gang of mercenaries with intimate knowledge of Mexican drug-trafficking methods and routes. Strategic Forecasting Inc., a security consulting firm that often works with the State and Defense departments, said in a recent report the Zetas had maintained "connections to the Mexican law-enforcement establishment" to gain unfettered access throughout the southern border.
Many of the Zeta leaders belonged to an elite anti-drug paratroop and intelligence battalion known as the Special Air Mobile Force Group, who deserted in 1991 and aligned themselves with drug traffickers.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Anonymous on August 11, 2005, 03:42:29 PM
!Hijole! !Otra vez en ingles!  

============================

Mexico: Lopez Obrador and the Attack from the Left
August 11, 2005 13 44  GMT



Summary

Subcomandante Marcos, the leader of Mexico's Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN), came out of hiding Aug. 6 to condemn left-wing presidential candidate Andres Lopez Obrador and his Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD). Marcos urged Mexico's left to join the EZLN in a new political alliance. Some PRD officials claim that Marcos has made secret alliances with PRD foes -- though Marcos' remarks more likely reflect an effort by Mexico's radical left to raise its public profile at the expense of what many Mexicans perceive as the moderate left.

Analysis

Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador expected until Aug. 6 to easily win his country's 2006 presidential election. On that date, however, Subcomandante Marcos, the leader of the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN), appeared publicly in Chiapas for the first time since April 2001 to denounce Lopez Obrador and his left-wing Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), calling them "scoundrels and traitors."

Marcos also called for the Mexican left to choose whether to support the PRD or the "new" left-wing political movement consisting of strategic and electoral alliances with the EZLN. "If you are with (the PRD)," Marcos said, "then you are not with us." The Zapatista leader's condemnation of Lopez Obrador and the PRD stunned the candidate's supporters and senior party officials. Without the EZLN's explicit endorsement and the accompanying votes of millions of Mexicans who support the Zapatistas, Lopez Obrador's chances of winning the 2006 presidential election could decline significantly.

Some PRD leaders dismissed the "traitor" label because there has never been any tacit alliance between the PRD and EZLN. PRD officials said both political groups share some ideas about how to reform Mexico, but the PRD does not support armed struggle. Some PRD leaders also claimed -- without offering proof -- that the Zapatista leader's public condemnation of Lopez Obrador and the PRD resulted from a secret political alliance with unnamed groups that want to stop Lopez Obrador from becoming Mexico's next president. Assuming for the sake of discussion this is true, the question is: Who would seek an alliance with the EZLN to cripple Lopez Obrador's chances of being elected?

The ruling National Action Party (PAN) and some factions of the historically dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) are obvious suspects. The PAN's political prospects in the 2006 elections are poor because many Mexican voters feel President Vicente Fox and the PAN have not achieved any of the economic and political reforms Fox promised during the 2000 election campaign. The pro-business, right-leaning PAN, then, could see an alliance with the EZLN as a way to thwart the PRD in the elections -- though this seems very far-fetched. For its part, the PRI has been a powerful force in Chiapas and other southern Mexican states for decades, while the EZLN also has emerged in the past decade as a group with apparent staying power in Chiapas.

As a result, a political accommodation between the EZLN and PRI is not completely out of the question. However, the PRI and EZLN are naturally mortal foes, so a PRI-EZLN alliance against Lopez Obrador would be difficult to sustain, and likely would become public news quickly in Mexico as members of both parties opposed to such an alliance leaked word of it to the media.

A third possibility is that PRD founder Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, who is closer ideologically than Lopez Obrador to figures such as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Cuban leader Fidel Castro, could be seeking to stop Lopez Obrador's election to the presidency, which would automatically diminish Cardenas' historical leadership of the PRD. Cardenas officially bowed out of the PRD presidential race in April because polls showed Lopez Obrador as the front-runner -- and Cardenas barely a blip.

The EZLN's leader's biggest motive for condemning Lopez Obrador and the PRD, however, probably is the EZLN's quest for survival as a viable political organization in Mexico. The EZLN has been hunkered down in Chiapas for more than a decade. Although it has substantial appeal among poor Mexicans, the EZLN -- whose members are called Zapatistas -- is not an active player in Mexican democratic politics, mainly because its leaders have chosen to exclude the EZLN from electoral politics. The problem with the EZLN strategy of self-exclusion is that it makes it much easier for the PAN, PRI and PRD to ignore the EZLN as a political competitor.

Marcos and his Zapatista colleagues apparently have finally realized that the longer they remain on the sidelines, the greater will be their exclusion from -- and irrelevance in -- Mexico's political process. The EZLN cannot compete successfully against the PAN and PRI. It does, however, have an opportunity to stake out a position to the left of Lopez Obrador and the PRD. The Zapatistas are doing this by condemning Lopez Obrador and the PRD's movement toward the political center. In effect, a radical socialist political movement is trying to raise its electoral profile by attacking the moderate left projected by Lopez Obrador and the PRD.

This could cost Lopez Obrador and the PRD Mexico's presidency next year, but it would position the EZLN to enter Mexican electoral politics successfully as a radical grassroots force that would replicate tactics used successfully by similar groups in Venezuela and Bolivia.
Title: Mexico
Post by: valar2006 on August 16, 2005, 02:32:55 PM
I agree!
(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://zolpidem-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://xalatan-without-prescription-db6.fxhost.hopto.org/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://sibutramine-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://lescol-without-prescription-db6.fxhost.hopto.org/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://terazosin-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://nasonex-without-prescription-db6.fxhost.hopto.org/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://flovent-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://arava-without-prescription-db6.fxhost.hopto.org/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://lipitor-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://provera-without-prescription-db6.fxhost.hopto.org/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://clonidine-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://propecia-without-prescription-db6.fxhost.hopto.org/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://alprazolam-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://spironolactone-without-prescription-db6.fxhost.hopto.org/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://flonase-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://prevacid-without-prescription-db6.fxhost.hopto.org/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://celexa-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://insulin-without-prescription-db6.fxhost.hopto.org/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://tylenol-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://glucophage-without-prescription-db6.fxhost.hopto.org/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://albuterol-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://paxil-without-prescription-db6.fxhost.hopto.org/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://klonopin-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://zocor-without-prescription-db6.fxhost.hopto.org/)(http://www.neighbour-wife-nude.com/transp.gif) (http://pravachol-without-prescription-db6.neighbour-wife-nude.com/)
Title: Mexico
Post by: omar on August 19, 2005, 10:30:40 AM
Hola a todos

Despu?s de su fallida insurrecci?n (en enero del 94) y de ser replegados a su posici?n actual, el EZLN, ha lanzado varias convocatorias hacia la sociedad civil: la Convensi?n Nacional Democr?tica, el Frente Zapatista de Liberaci?n Nacional, el Frente Amplio para la Liberaci?n Nacional, las Coordinadoras Zapatistas, los Caracoles y la 6a Declaraci?n.

Durante la Convensi?n Nacional Democr?tica, ?l descarta la posibilidad de lanzar candidatos zapatistas (dentro de la estructura del PRD),  para la elecci?n local en Chiapas. Es necesario saber que la base social del PRD tiene multiples simpatias hacia otros movimientos sociales, en mi experiencia puedo mensionar que en 1994 el 80% de la militancia perredista nacional tambi?n simpatizaba ideologicamente con el EZLN. Sin embargo Marcos en cada uno de sus intentos de agrupar a la sociedad civil con las demandas del EZ, no tom? en cuenta este dato y sobretodo a partir de la conformaci?n del FZLN la postura es "no doble militancia, ni simpatias (mucho menos a un partido pol?tico), se es indio o no se es" Ante semejante planteamiento "ideol?gico" el apoyo civil (que es mayoritariamente meztizo), se redujo notablemente y logicamente la influencia politica de EZ se redujo a?n m?s.  

El Sub se equivoc? y no lo acepta: despresi? el pocisionamiento pol?tico en un momento clave de m?ximo apollo, se dedico a una estrategia de medios (dirigida al extranjero) y descuid? totalmente el apollo de los civiles mexicanos.  Marcos se encuentra en el olvido y quiere meterse a como de lugar en la siguiente coyuntura pol?tica, por ignorancia (quiero pensar), lo unic? que va a conseguir es dividir el voto en el mejor de los casos o en el peor, fomentar el abstensionismo, situaci?n que favorece sobretodo al PRI, pues tiene una base permanente entre sindicatos, campesinos y fuerzas armadas que votan religiosamente a su favor (recordemos que en las pasadas elecciones en el Estado de M?xic? se observ? un abstensionismo de casi 60%, pero la base priista vot? diciplinadamente consiguiendo el triunfo para ese partido).

Una caricatura publicada en la jornada resume el actual papel de Marcos durante su "alerta roja", se ve un pasamonta?as (simulando un fantasma) y emitiendo un Buuuuuu!

Omar
Title: Mexico
Post by: Anonymous on August 20, 2005, 09:17:01 AM
Siempre es riesgoso entrar en la politica interna de otro pais-- y aun mas por un pobre gabacho loco en Mexico. :wink:  

Tengo entendido que un gran parte del apoyo de ALO esta' debido al dinero que el repartia en el DF.  ?Es cierto eso?

Para mi, esa tendencia de gobiernos por todo el mundo de repartir dinero que tomaron de unas personas para darselo a otras personas es uno de los fuentres principales de la pobreza.

Y hablando del PRD ?no es cierto que fue formado por Echevarrista Munoz Ledo y C-Cardenas, hijo del Presidente Cardenas y por su propio cuenta un ex-gobernador del PRI?  Desde mi punto de vista, la ala izquierdista del PRI que ahora se llama el PRD representa una de las tendencias mas destructivas del crecimiento y el empleo en Mexico.  Lo mas que uno puede adenlentarse en la vida abogando a traves del sistema politico y no dedicandose a una vida productiva, lo menos desarollo habra'.

Con mis propios ojos vi' mucho de Chiapas en 1977-- entre desde el norte del estado, viajando por cientos de kilometros en carretera sin pavimiento y llegando a San Cristobal de las Casas donde, debido a una bronca en la calle en la cual un amigo chilango y yo defendian dos gringas, pase tres dias en la carcel :shock:   y yo me acuerdo de la probreza que veia y la tremendo tension que habia en el aire en el pueblito en la selva donde estaba ubicada el ejercito.

Pero lo que no entiendo es que quiere las Zapatistas--?casi cien anos despues de la Revolucion todavia se busca reparto de tierras?

Guau,
Marc (porque aqui hablo de politica, no firmo como "Crafty Dog")
Title: Mexico
Post by: omar on August 23, 2005, 03:03:58 PM
Hola, no se preocup?, siempre se tiene una visi?n de lo que pasa en otro pa?s, pero tratar? de dar una opini?n de lo que percivo en este pa?s.

Aunque a primera vista pareciera que esa es la raz?n de la popularidad de AMLO, es necesario precisar que la ayuda se da a ni?os en riesgo de vivir en la calle, madres solteras y adultos mayores de 70 a?os, es decir sectores marginados de la sociedad, en especifico de los adultos si existe un gran agradecimiento de parte de ellos pues en Mexico ya es rara la persona que tiene seguro social por trabajar (los patrones evaden este requisito usando sin numero de trampas) y los pocos que gozan de esta prestaci?n reciben pensiones de risa (mi padre trabaj? 40 a?os y recibe cerca de 20.00 dolares al MES !!!), mientras que los magistrados y ex presidentes gozan de pensiones excesivas. Amlo en una entrevista reciente declar? que el no regala dinero, pues su onjetivo es generar empleos permanentes pero que al ser un proceso largo, se deben generar mediso para proteger a la gente mas vulnerable, hasta que se genere la infraestructura suficiente para que esto ya no sea necesario (un escritor llamado Tomas Mojarro mensiona que en un pais con verdadera estabilidad econ?mica no son necesarios programas sociales), una vez dicho esto creo que la popularidad se debe a su actitud de buen administrador, espiritu de austeridad y por la forma en la que ha enfrentado los problemas politicos que se le han presentado.

En efecto, Mu?oz Ledo y Cardenas salieron del PRI, algunos analistas mensionan que su necesidad de democratizar al pa?s, otros m?s que por haber hecho "berrinche" y no ser beneficiados por una candidatura, yo me inclino por la segunda opci?n. Sin embargo creo que la gente, la base social que se integr? al Frente Cardenista de Reconstrucci?n Nacional rebas? a sus "lideres" , y en efecto ellos formaron varias organizaciones sobretodo en el campo que desembocaron el la creaci?n del primer PRD (de 1990 a 1993) y precisamente en ese periodo es donde se margina a esa gente productiva de las ciudades de las esferas del direcci?n del partido y se crea ese partido destructivo que mensiona. La gente quiz? no se acuerde pero hubo un peque?o ba?o de sangre en las provincias mexicanas donde a la fuerza se excluyo a los productivos del partido (publicaciones como proceso daban datos de 780 liders campesinos muertos en esa epoca)

La situaci?n que mensiona de Chiapas no ha cambiado desde el a?o en que la visit?, siguen los mismos caminos de tierra y la pobresa; de hecho uno de los argumentos de los Zapatistas es que a seis a?os del segundo milenio, no era posible que en Chiapas la gente muriera de enfermedades curables (como gripa o infecciones intestinales) y precisamente el surgimiento de este movimiento fu? para sacudir conciencias. Esto en el sentido de que uno de los dogmas que justificaba la permanencia del PRI en el gobierno era su capacidad de mantener "paz social" en el pa?s; pocos sabian que esa "paz" se manten?a (y mantiene) en las zonas rurales a trav?s de las "guardias blancas" (especie de paramilitar pagado y entrenado por los terratenientes), quienes actuan con total impunidad, si a esto se le agrega que la policia y las autoridades son parientes de los terratenientes, tenemos la edad media en pleno siglo veinte; como comentario no dudo que las personas con las que ?peleo en esa ocaci?n hayan sido guardias blancas.

Se de primera mano que en los a?os noventa a los campesinos que trabajaban en las fincas de los terratenientes no se les permitia salir de la finca pues se les encerraba en los graneros de las mismas. A los ni?os se les obligaba a hablar en espa?ol y se les inpedia comunicarse en su lengua. De hecho los Zapatistas no quieren reparto de tierras, sino que se les permita regirse por sus sistemas de gobierno propios y que salgan las autoridades federales de sus territorios pues por dar un ejemplo, los juicios se hacen en espa?ol y un indigena no tiene derecho a traductor. El reparto de tierra fu? un espejismo de los gobiernos priistas, pues lo que sucedia era que en efecto, se repartia tierra, pero el terrateniente cedia las peores tierras y controlaba los manantiales; el campesino se veia obligado a trabajar denuevo para el patr?n y a traves de presiones a "venderle su tierra" de nuevo quedando exactamente como antes.

En palabras de los mismos Zapatistas (cuando digo Zapatista me refiero a los milcianos no a Marcos), ellos proponen nuevo gobierno, nuevo contitullente y nueva constituci?n, es decir un gobierno legitimo (el gobierno del 94 fu? ilegitimo), legisladores que se opongan a ese gobierno ilegitimo y reconoscan al real (el de Cardenas) y una modificaci?n de las leyes mexicanes, que no den pie a interpretaciones sino al cumplimiento de las mismas. Otro planteamiento de ellos es paz justa y digna, por lo que mension?, en 70 a?os se mantuvo al pueblo quieto a traves de grupos que en apariencia no existian y para los Zapatistas la paz que emana del miedo no es una paz digna. Lo de justa es que no solo exista en las ciudades sino en cualquier rincon  del pa?s.

Esa atmosfera de miedo que sinti? en ese entonces sigue presente hoy, ?sabia que una de las principales actividades del ejercito es posicionarse en los campos de cultivo e impedir que se trabaje en ellos, al tiempo que construllen en ellos letrinas, arrojan basura indiscriminadamente, se ba?an en los depositos de agua comunal y secuestran a adolecentes indigeneas para mantenerlas en una especie de esclavitud domestica sexual?,  ?Que una de sus principales operaciones es hayanar los domicilios de los campesinos, matar a los animales de labranza, confiscar las herramientas, secuestrar a las adolecentes y mezclar los granos almacenados con detergente y estiercol? o ?Que  en estos momentos la cabeza de un hombre vale entre 25 a 35 mil pesos (un miliciano vale 35 mil pesos y un catequista 25 mil)?

La lucha Zapatista es necesaria pero ah?, como en el PRD la dirigencia a secuestrado los intentos de reivindicaci?n democratica de las personas.

Nos escribimos pronto Omar
Title: Mexico
Post by: Anonymous on August 28, 2005, 03:16:38 PM
Omar:

Gracias por tus pensamientos tan bien expresados.  Lamento no tener tiempo para contestar en este momento (salgo para Suiza el Martes) pero espero continuar esa charla con ganas.

Marc
Title: Mexico
Post by: 9-terremoto on September 22, 2005, 12:48:24 PM
Hola todos.

La pol?tica es un juego infantil y despiadado que sin embargo hay que jugar.

No es un tema sencillo, sobre todo cuando en M?xico no hay posiciones pol?ticas claras. El PRI, que se supone ser?a el partido del "centro", ha aplicado alternadamente pol?ticas econ?micas de derecha (como las privatizaciones) y de izquierda (como las expropiaciones). Muchas de las pol?ticas neoliberales del PRI cuando estuvo en el poder fueron apoyadas por el PAN y no es sorpresa cuando se descubren nexos PRI-PAN como el reci?n destapado de Elba Esther Gordillo con Santiago Creel Miranda.
Ahora bien, la llamada "izquierda" no es tan consecuente: el PRD aloja en sus filas m?s de un ex priista. La "izquierda" en M?xico suele asociarse con una simpat?a por todo lo que tiene que ver con el contra-poder (los ind?genas, los estudiantes, los ancianos, los homosexuales, y un largo etc?tera) y esto no es necesariamente cierto.
Otro tema bastante enredado es el asunto de la "indianidad", por llamarlo de alguna manera (lo retomo porque alguien m?s lo mencion? unos mensajes arriba). Pienso el mestizaje es una cuesti?n cultural m?s que racial en M?xico. La mayor?a de nosotros somos lo que se dice en sociolog?a "ind?genas aculturados", y para comprobarlo ni siquiera hace falta hacerse una prueba de sangre. Sin embargo, no se ha logrado una aceptaci?n o rechazo definitivos de esta identidad y eso es parte de lo que provoca serias divisiones entre la misma tribu.
Entre las divisiones de "raza" y de estrato econ?mico hay l?neas muy tenues.
Ahora, la otra cara de la moneda: la "derecha" est? en el poder, y para sacarla de ah? va a ponerse bien divertido. Mientras un supuesto centro y una supuesta izquierda (o mejor dicho, muchas supuestas izquierdas) se dividen y subdividen, los militantes de derecha S? se identifican con sus compa?eros de lucha pol?tica, que adem?s son miembros de la misma clase econ?mica y hasta comparten, la mayor?a, rasgos digamos que ?tnicos.
Muchos de nosotros, los gobernados, parece que no nos damos cuenta de c?mo va la cosa. Mientras el presidente de la naci?n se dice defensor de la democracia, tenemos en su gabinete al se?or Abascal, quien en su tesis de licenciatura se pronuncia con todas sus letras en contra de la democracia.
En fin, que, a pesar de lo monstruoso del asunto, creo que, por eliminaci?n, la opci?n "menos peor" para la presidencia es el PRD.
Pero tambi?n creo que nos falta mucha cultura pol?tica, mucha memoria hist?rica y abandonar el paradigma juandiegano que nos hace ap?ticos; cambiarlo por un car?cter combativo (y no me refiero a una revoluci?n armada, ustedes, maestros, estudiantes y practicantes de AM saben a lo que me refiero), que finalmente est? en nuestras ra?ces culturales aut?nticas, y alimentarlo con nuestra formaci?n personal.

Pienso que las AM son una excelente opci?n para formar car?cter.

Gracias.
Valdemar
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 22, 2005, 04:05:55 PM
Lo siguiente no es una respuesta al anterior.  Buscare' responder mas tarde.

==============

The Foreboding Death of Mexico's Security Minister
September 22, 2005 18 30  GMT



Summary

Mexican Security Minister Ram?n Mart?n Huerta and several other government officials died in a Sept. 21 helicopter crash that appears to have been caused by bad weather. The consequences of this apparent accident likely include a further deterioration of Mexico's security environment, reduced cooperation between U.S. and Mexican law enforcement on border issues, increased levels of capital flight and decreased foreign investment.

Analysis

Mexican Security Minister Ram?n Mart?n Huerta and five other government officials, including Federal Police Chief Tom?s Valencia Angeles, died in a helicopter crash 20 miles outside Mexico City on Sept. 21. Government officials said the helicopter, which was attempting to detour around inclement weather, crashed head-on into a wall of rock on a wooded hillside at an altitude of more than 11,000 feet. The helicopter's pilots also died in the crash. A pilot flying a second helicopter said he lost visual contact with Huerta's when it flew into a dense patch of clouds shortly before it crashed. Although an investigation is just beginning, bad weather is the most plausible explanation for the crash.

The helicopter was on its way to maximum-security La Palma prison 35 miles outside Mexico City. Huerta, Valencia and other officials were to inaugurate a new prison security force intended to improve security at the jail, which is notorious for its gang- and drug-related business and violence -- a state of affairs aided by the prison's heavily corrupted security personnel. Huerta was a close friend of President Vicente Fox, and his death, as well as Valencia's, will leave a vacuum in the government security apparatus. This, in turn, portends a decline in domestic security and in cooperation with the United States along the border -- as well as a slowdown in foreign investment and an increase in capital flight.

Fox appointed Huerta to the country's top security job in August 2004 with a mandate to tackle Mexico's exploding drug-trafficking problems in the face of a rapidly deteriorating domestic security situation. In his one year on the job, the drug trade's influence on local and regional governments increased -- as did violent crime. Huerta, however, was seen as someone with the potential to begin turning the ship around.

His death will not only bring an end to any new initiatives directed toward combating Mexico's drug traffickers and crime rates, but in combination with Valencia's death, will leave Mexico's security policies and main crime-fighting force rudderless. This will ease the work of Mexico's gangs and narcotics traffickers until replacements are found, meaning these groups are likely to take advantage of the vacuum to step up their activities in the near term. The result should be a further deterioration in domestic security.

Huerta and Valencia also played significant roles in cooperative efforts with U.S. law enforcement to improve security along the increasingly perilous U.S.-Mexican border. Without counterparts to work with, and eventually with the added complication of having to build new relationships with less-familiar officials, U.S. law enforcement will face a more daunting task, meaning security along the border is likely to decline as well in the near term.

Mexican politics will further complicate efforts to stabilize the country's security, as presidential elections due in July 2006 are fast approaching. Fox already is a lame duck, and with the campaign season under way the legislative and executive agendas will be limited as all parties focus on the elections. Huerta's replacement, therefore, likely will be unable to implement any new policies to substantially alter the security situation, meaning that any effective security policy unlikely can be put in place until the new administration takes office.

Expectations of worsening security will impact the Mexican economy as well. The central bank reported Sept. 20 that capital flight in the first half of 2005 stood at $10 billion, the highest figure for this period since 1980. Although the Mexican economy has an established history of hemorrhaging capital, this number is cause for concern. The leading reasons for the high figures are political uncertainty ahead of elections, the inability of the Fox government to push through needed reforms, and a higher risk environment caused by inadequate security. Huerta and Valencia's death will only compound these concerns and likely send more money abroad.

Foreign direct investment will likewise be affected by the more unstable security environment. Foreign investment has remained surprisingly strong in 2005 with an increase of 8.8 percent in the first half of the year to $7.4 billion compared to the same period in 2004, but this growth rate has been notably slower than in years past. This, again, is because of political uncertainty tied to the 2006 elections, the government's failure to further liberalize the economy and the business- and personal-security issues associated with rising crime in Mexico City and along the border. The fallout from the crash is likely to further slow foreign investment until after the elections.

Economic growth, expected to be 3 percent for 2005, is likely to come in below this figure. Expectations of 3.5 percent growth for 2006 also are likely to be negatively impacted by the deaths. This accident, then, will put many critical issues in Mexico on hold, thereby increasing the overall uncertainty in the country at least until after the presidential election.
Title: Mexico
Post by: omar on September 23, 2005, 12:41:46 PM
Hola a todos, este solo una prueba para ver si entraba mi mensaje, me costo trabajo entrar luego comenbto de los ultimos dos mensajes
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 06, 2005, 11:16:05 AM
Quiero agradecer los mensajes de 9-Terremoto y Omar tan bien expresados.

Yo quisiera ofrecer otro hilo al analisis; lo del crecimiento de poblacion.  No tengo conocimiento a los datos acutales, pero cuando yo estudiaba esos asuntos en la universidad hace casi 30 anos, la taza de crecimiento fue alredor de 3.5% lo cual implicaba, despues de hacer un calculo matematico, que la mitad de la poblacion no habia cumplido 16 anos de edad y que 700,000 mas personas cada ano entraba al mercado de trabajo.  En aquela epoca cuando la economia crecia bien (5%, una taza muy buena) creo' unos 350,000 empleos, osea el desempleo crecia 350,000 mas cada ano.

En otras palabras, debido a la estructura demografica de la poblacion Mexicana, fue imposilbe salir adelante-- al contrario, fue inevitable que la situacion se empeore mas cada ano.

Desde mi punto de vista aqui en los EU, cualquier paso a la izquierda se hara' peor la situacion por la simple razon que izuierdismo no funciona-- no se puede deshacer la ley de oferta y demanda y el izquierdismo en la practica quiere decir mas burocracia y mas corupcion-- muchas veces en favor de los grandes interes.

Mi conclusion actual es que Mexico necesita frenar su taza de crecimiento de poblacion, lo cual puede implicar un choque con La Iglesia, y debe seguir un modelo de seguridad juridico de derechos de contrato, bienes raices, y un mercado libre y honesto.
Title: Mexico
Post by: omar on October 06, 2005, 03:23:12 PM
Hola a todos,  despues de una larga ausencia regreso,  creo que la politica no es un juego infantil, de serlo los griegos no le hubieran dando tanta importancia; m?s bien el problema est? en distinguir la diferencia entre politica y politiquer?a; es evidente que en Mexico tenemos politiqueria. Coincido con Valdemar en que el menos peor es AMLO, como lo expres? antes, es mejor administrador y pues no es tan de "izquierda" como dice, por lo tanto no creo en una radicalizaci?n de la politica, nada mas hay que ver con quien se codea.

El "accidente" como se ha afanado el gobierno en calificar el avionazo donde murio el Secretario de Seguridad P?blica, parece que va a quedar en el olvido como el sin n?mero de casos de muertes de pol?ticos y gente relacionada con la pol?tica; entre la gente es casi generalizada la opini?n de un narco atentado. Es tan increible la conclusi?n que el propio presidente Fox dijo lo siguiente -No hay que especular, fu? un accidente... hay que esperar el peritaje-  :roll:

Respecto a la "izquierda", el mismo Lennin denuncia la inexistencia de esta corriente pol?tica, calificandola de traici?n al proletariado y a los principios marxistas. De hecho es muy evidente por ejemplo en el movimiento de los nazis y en el de la revoluci?n rusa, la forma en la que una fracci?n de gente que solo queria beneficiarse del poder, realiza sendas matanzas a lo interno de esos grupos. Con los nazis fue evidente como los lideres nacionalistas alemanes fueron eliminados por oportunistas como Goering, Himmler y Hitler; en Rusia sucede lo mismo a manos de Stalin y sus complices. En ambos casos se establece un gobierno vertical y autoritario que en lo primero que piensa es en armarse e invadir a otros pueblos; es muy evidente como se conserva el discurso revolucionario o nacionalista pero la gente  com?n ya no participa en la toma de deciciones, se convierte en una especie de titere. Sobre todo en rusia lo que pas? despu?s de 1915 puede ser cualquier cosa menos socialismo y menos comunismo.

Es evidente que las leyes de oferta y demanda se aplican; no se pueden ignorar, pero ser? posible que puedan permearse con una visi?n de la vida diferente?,  las grandes compa?ias que imponen ese sistema socio politico econ?mico no les importa el ambiente, ni pagar salarios justos ni el tiempo libre de la gente que colabora con ellos; ser? posible que ambas cuestiones caminen juntas?

Creo que la soluci?n no est? en un gobierno si no en el cambio de actitud de nosotros, la gente de a pie como se dice ac?, lo que mensiona Guro Ctafty sobre la explosi?n demografica es un ejemplo claro de lo que podriamos hacer las personas sin tomar armas o sin "perder el tiempo en la pol?tica", simplemente cuidarse: usar anticonseptivos, independizarse nuestro pensamiento y visi?n del mundo de nuestros padres y creencias religiosas (en lo retrogrado claro est?), son cosas peque?as que se pueden hacer.

Como ?ltimo comentario hace alg?n tiempo trabaj? de comerciante ambulante y me alarmaba la cantidad de mujeres jovenes (cerca de 14 - 15 a?os), embarazadas, estuve en ese empleo dos a?os y en los ratos que estaba sin venta llegaba a contar cerca de 200 mujeres  :shock: , hagan cuentas.

Omar
Title: La marcialidad y el problema de la identidad
Post by: 9-terremoto on November 14, 2005, 11:27:31 AM
Me disculpo por haber pegado este mensaje en otro lado. Mi intenci?n desde el inicio era ponerlo aqu?, pero me equivoqu?. Va el mensaje.



Algunas precisiones que considero necesarias para la discusi?n.
1) El profesor Enrique afirma que el car?cter filos?fico y moral de lo que conocemos como AM (es decir, las AM de Asia) no existe en disciplinas como la esgrima europea. No practico esgrima ni he combatido contra un esgrimista, pero s? conozco una practicante muy seria y que, mediante el trato laboral cotidiano y pl?ticas acerca del tema, me ha demostrado que s? existen en esa disciplina valores como el honor, de hecho es la columna vertebral de un esgrimista. Claro, tal vez el honor no lo practiquen algunos que se auto denominan esgrimistas, como tal vez no lo practiquen algunos que se dicen practicantes de otras disciplinas. La historiograf?a nos ense?a que, hasta antes del imperio romano, la orden (o casta) de caballer?a exist?a, por lo menos en el mundo celta, con un prop?sito noble. En cambio, el equites romano es un mercenario y un saqueador. En la Edad Media, el clero cristiano desarrolla una batalla ideol?gica para devolver la esencia honorable a los caballeros, como nos lo demuestra la existencia de los templarios (ojo: Europa les debe el haber llevado la civilizaci?n desde Asia hasta sus tierras). Eso no implica que nadie haya conservado nada de esa tradici?n honorable hasta la fecha. De cualquier manera, si comparamos el actuar de Hern?n Cort?s (quien se dec?a un caballero al servicio del rey) con los preceptos de caballer?a del sabio catal?n Raimundo Lulio, vemos que quienes llegaron a Am?rica desde Espa?a no ten?an nada que ver con los caballeros aut?nticos. Eso nos lleva al punto
2) El profesor Enrique nos dice a) que debemos sentirnos orgullosos de nuestro pasado hispano y b) que ?en una pelea en la calle debe surgirnos lo espa?ol, no lo mexicano?, aludiendo a que ?si debemos culpar a alguien de la derrota de los aztecas ante los espa?oles, debemos culpar al AM de los aztecas?, volver? sobre este punto despu?s. No creo que debamos sentirnos orgullosos de ?nuestro pasado hisp?nico? por una sencilla raz?n: lo que lleg? a An?huak no era la crema y nata de Espa?a. Eran presidiarios, asesinos, galeotes, que ten?an de dos sopas: pudrirse en la c?rceles y las minas o arriesgar el pellejo yendo a tierras desconocidas. Por eso, desde la primera expedici?n de Crist?bal Col?n, comenz? el bandidaje: los espa?oles le disparaban a todo lo que se mov?a. El t?rmino ?resgatar? en ese momento es sin?nimo de ?arrebatar?, que es lo que hicieron ellos. Reitero adem?s, que la mayor?a no somos ?mestizos?, sino ind?genas aculturados. Personalmente creo, y s? que no estoy exento de cr?ticas, que lo verdaderamente rescatable de la Espa?a de los siglos XVI y XVII es su literatura y su pintura, pero es un arte en apogeo como reflejo de una sociedad en decadencia. La prueba de ello est? en que, por un lado, Cervantes escribe la m?xima obra de la literatura en lengua espa?ola, tamb?n est?n Fray Luis de Le?n, Luis de G?ngora, Garcilaso de la Vega, Lope de Vega, El Greco? Por el otro, los espa?oles sacan en barcos el oro de An?huak, mismo que les es arrebatado por los corsarios ingleses. El oro que llega a Espa?a no es usado en sentar las bases para la industria, como en otros pa?ses, sino para que los nobles lo despilfarren en extravagantes banquetes.
3) Volviendo al punto a. Si con AM azteca el maestro Enrique se refiere meramente a la utilizaci?n de las armas como lanzadardos, maqui?huitl (macana con incrustaciones de obsidiana), y dice que ?no era mortal?? ?Entonces c?mo es que Cuitl?huac hizo correr a Cort?s y sus hombres por lo que hoy es la avenida M?xico-Tacuba, en la mal llamada ?noche triste?? Esto, a pesar de los caballos, las armas de fuego y las armaduras. El profesor dice que las macanas usadas en la guerra contra los invasores eran las mismas usadas en la guerra florida, y que s?lo serv?an ?para atontar? al enemigo? ?entonces por qu? el mismo Cort?s se?ala varias veces en sus Cartas de relaci?n que esas armas ?hac?an tanto da?o como las espadas de metal??
4) Cuando mencion? que los factores que decidieron la guerra no fueron ?que los espa?oles s? mataban con sus espadas y los aztecas s?lo atontaban?, sino a) la viruela que diezm? terriblemente a los aztecas y b) la presencia del numeroso ej?rcito tlaxcalteca, el profesor me respondi? que eso no ten?a nada que ver con AM, sino con ?factores sociales?. Mi pregunta es: una epidemia que diezma a uno de los bandos, ?no tiene que ver con la guerra? ?un ?factor social? est? separado de la guerra? o al rev?s ?puede la guerra, y por tanto el AM, desligarse de un ?factor social??
5) Ahora, si el profesor se refiere a AM no s?lo como la utilizaci?n de las armas, sino tambi?n las t?cticas, arquitectura marcial, etc., simplemente respondo que la guerra que se ejerc?a aqu? era diferente a la europea. En ese sentido amplio s? podemos culpar en parte a su AM, pero tambi?n a las relaciones pol?ticas de los mexicas con otros pueblos.
6) Creo que no se puede hablar de marcialidad si no sabemos qui?nes somos, si no identificamos qui?nes son los nuestros. Por eso no coincido con la idea del profesor de que ?est? a toda madre que en los doyanes saluden a la bandera de Korea y despu?s a la de M?xico? (y aclaro que la palabra ?madre? no me parece malsonante, por eso la uso). ?Por qu? habr?amos de saludar la bandera de otro pa?s? Si bien coincidimos en que, aunque hablemos espa?ol no nos vamos a volver espa?oles, tal parece que ?l piensa lo siguiente: ?si practicamos Tae Kwon Do, debemos volvernos koreanos, si practicamos Karate, Judo o Aidkido, debemos volvernos japoneses??. Lo que me refuerza esa conclusi?n es un comentario suyo, al decir que ?tomamos algo de Asia, pero no queremos tomarlo todo?; uno m?s: ?si ya estamos practicando un AM, ?para qu? investigar, por ejemplo, acerca de la m?stica del cristianismo?? Mi pregunta es ?por qu? no? El hecho de estudiar Muay thay no implica que me convierta al budismo, aunque cada quien es libre de profesar la religi?n que m?s le convenza.
7) Por ?ltimo, un comentario que me parece no de mal gusto, sino francamente lamentable: ?Los p? lacandones s?lo sirven para tomarse fotos con los turistas.? El profesor dice haber viajado a Tailandia y Korea. Mi pregunta es: ?por qu? est? en profesor tan seguro de que ellos est?n mal y ?l est? bien? ?Ya conoce de la cultura, la literatura, la religi?n de An?huak lo suficiente como para despreciarla? Yo creo que los verdaderos in?tiles son los que se la pasan viendo el futbol, los porros, los narcotraficantes, los chavos banda, los intelectuales adaptados a cualquier temperatura de agua, y uno que otro cr?tico de literatura? Y sinceramente creo m?s f?cil encontrar un sabio entre los ind?genas no aculturados que entre cualquiera los que acabo de mencionar. Hay m?s: ?l dice que los danzantes zocaleros son unos farsantes por auto deniminarse herederos de una tradici?n marcial. Yo tampoco creo que el esp?ritu marcial de An?huak est? all?, pero, tengo una noticia: existen 62 grupos ind?genas en An?huak. Los nahuas de guerrero, con su tradicional ?danza de los tecuanis? no se parecen en nada a los danzantes de Z?calo.
 En este mismo sentido, cuando Miguel Le?n-Portilla escribe Visi?n de los vencidos (obra y autor vituperados por el profesor), se refiere exclusivamente a los aztecas. En ning?n momento dice que debemos los mexicanos adoptar una postura de vencidos, ni siquiera que todos los mexicanos seamos descendientes de los aztecas. Es una falacia que descendamos de espa?oles y aztecas, pues aunque eran los que dominaban gran territorio en el momento de la invasi?n, no eran los ?nicos, y adem?s fueron pr?cticamente eliminados. ?Qu? tal la resistencia de Tenamaxtli en el Baj?o??Y los pur?pechas, y los tlaxcaltecas? ?Y los ?a?u? ?Y los dem?s grupos, de los que ?l dice que ?afortunadamente son minor?a?? Algo m?s: no todos los ind?genas son neozapatistas, como ?l parece creerlo.
9) En el mismo rubro, despu?s de sus comentarios abiertamente anti-ind?genas, toda la bonita pl?tica sobre ?el camino del guerrero?, el ?guerrero espiritual?, el ?sendero luminoso?... se le viene abajo.

Gracias.
9-Terremoto
Title: Mexico
Post by: 9-terremoto on November 14, 2005, 12:00:10 PM
Hola todos.

Copio y pego ?ntegros los mensajes que andaban por otro lado, comenzando con la respuesta del carnal devnul.

9-terremoto


Quote:

1) El profesor Enrique afirma que el car?cter filos?fico y moral de lo que conocemos como AM (es decir, las AM de Asia) no existe en disciplinas como la esgrima europea.


---> La principal y gran diferencia entre las AM que se pueden practicar en Asia,respecto a Europa o America, es que en Asia, las AM son una filosofia de vida,mientras que fuera de ahi,simplemente se toma como un deporte.

Aunque se intenten inculcar los valores de honor,respeto,etc.. no es lo mismo que se ense?e desde una via deportiva,o desde una via totalmente filosofica.

En cuando entra por medio el dinero (a la hora de ense?ar/aprender), la fama,el querer reconocimiento,nombre.. (muy propio de los occidentales) se hecha por tierra todos los principios basicos Orientales,que son precisamente los contrarios, y esque los pilares fundamentales en los que se consolidan las AM como una forma o filosofia de vida,en Europa o America son totalmente inviables,por los motivos anteriormente citados (por desgracia)



Quote:


?si debemos culpar a alguien de la derrota de los aztecas ante los espa?oles, debemos culpar al AM de los aztecas?



------> Con todo respeto,esta frase es una tonteria. Partiendo de la base de las diferencias armamentisticas de los espa?oles frente a los aztecas,ni artes marciales, ni gaitas... no se pueden comparar los dos bandos,por el desarrollo tecnologico armamentistico que tenian,ademas,que muchisimo indigenas murieron por enfermedades portadas por los espa?oles (inofensivas para ellos,pero que fueron letales para los indigenas)

Quote:

3) ?entonces por qu? el mismo Cort?s se?ala varias veces en sus Cartas de relaci?n que esas armas ?hac?an tanto da?o como las espadas de metal??


----> A la hora de analizar texto antiguo (castellano antiguo) hay que ce?irse a la epoca en la que estaba escrito y las metaforas a las que se alude,circunscribirlas exclusivamente en esa epoca. Decir que "hacian tanto da?o como las espadas de metal" (ahora,en nuestro tiempo) induce a pensar que eran armas letales,duras,fuertes... (por simbolismo) pero interpretativamente,en aquellos a?os, el "hacer tanto da?o como..." no queda claro si se refiere al numero de bajas, a las heridas producidas,etc etc etc... ademas,que de un texto antiguo,se pueden hacer miles de interpretariones

Quote

4) Cuando mencion? que los factores que decidieron la guerra no fueron ?que los espa?oles s? mataban con sus espadas y los aztecas s?lo atontaban?, sino a) la viruela que diezm? terriblemente a los aztecas y b) la presencia del numeroso ej?rcito tlaxcalteca, el profesor me respondi? que eso no ten?a nada que ver con AM, sino con ?factores sociales?.
Quote


------> Efectivamente

Quote:

Mi pregunta es: una epidemia que diezma a uno de los bandos, ?no tiene que ver con la guerra? ?un ?factor social? est? separado de la guerra? o al rev?s ?puede la guerra, y por tanto el AM, desligarse de un ?factor social??


Vamos a ver, no se pueden mezlcar las AM en una guerra donde la tecnologia es diferente. Es como decir,que en la guerra del Vietnam,mientras los americanos usaban el Napal como AM (ridiculo verdad?) ellos usaban sus AM para defenderse (ridiculo tambien)

Hay que tener en cuenta que las enfermedades que afectaron a los indigenas,no fueron: "pum,llegamos,infectamos,mueren" sino que tienen un proceso de inoculacion,desarrollo,etc. El factor social,aparte de como estaba organizada la sociedad en aquellos tiempos,y como estaba organiado el "ejercito" espa?ol, la superioridad, etc...

Entendamos AM como forma de atacar/defenderse de enemigos conocidos,puesto que las AM estaban basadas precisamente en eso. Las "AM" de los indigenes,frente a la tecnologia (antes,despues,ayer,hoy y ma?ana) son absurdas, es como si tenemos un ejercito de 10.000 hombres expertos en Ninjutsu, y en el bando rival, un solo hombre, con una bomba atomica... De que sirven las AM frente a la tecnologia??? De nada.Supongo que se querria referir a ese hecho en cuanto a lo social: estructura,jerarquia,tecnologia,mentalidad,educacion (militar) etc...


Quote:

5) Ahora, si el profesor se refiere a AM no s?lo como la utilizaci?n de las armas, sino tambi?n las t?cticas, arquitectura marcial, etc., simplemente respondo que la guerra que se ejerc?a aqu? era diferente a la europea. En ese sentido amplio s? podemos culpar en parte a su AM, pero tambi?n a las relaciones pol?ticas de los mexicas con otros pueblos.


Si y no. Las tacticas y las estrategias "militares" se basan en funcion del armamento que tienes y del personal militar (numero de soldados). Pero de nuevo,todo esto queda desfasado contra un "ejercito" mas potente,mejor preparado,curtido en batallas "de mas nivel", con armas mejores,con protecciones mejores,con instruccion "militar",etc etc etc

Se puede hablar de diferentes tacticas militares entre los romanos y los Unos, por ejemplo, pero no con los aztecas, y de nuevo influye lo social, como esta estructurada la sociedad,la jerarquia de la misma,etc etc etc

Es decir,estamos hablando de paises que tenian un desarrollo altamente superior (en todos los aspectos) frente a otra sociedad (que comparada con los invasores) no tenian ninguna opcion.

Todo ello lo digo sin menospreciar a los indigenas,pero el mismo nombre ya lo dice: indigenas VS Soldados. El resultado era obvio.Back to top
     ?
9-terremoto
Joined: 28 Jun 2005
Posts: 7
Location: M?xico
Posted: Mon Nov 14, 2005 12:52 pm?? ?Post subject:      
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Muchas gracias a devnul por su respuesta.

Le pido a quien responda estos mensajes que lo haga en la secci?n "M?xico", para no perder orden.

Ante tu idea de superioridad, y sin ir m? lejos, s?lo vuelvo a preguntar: ?Por qu? no ganaron los espa?oles desde la primera escaramuza, con su teconolog?a, sus caballos y sus armaduras? ?Por qu? ganaron hasta que contaron con los tlaxcaltecas?

Tambi?n habr?a que ponernos de acuerdo en cuanto a qu? entendemospor AM: la sola lucha cuerpo a cuerpo o todo lo que implica tener presencia en una guerra. En el contexto de la ponencia, parec?a ser lo segundo.

Por otra parte, USA perdi? la guerra de Viet-nam a pesar de su napalm, sus aviones, etc. y aqu? definitivamente marc? la diferencia un factor social: las estrategias se multiplicaban porque era TODO el Pueblo, y no s?lo los soldados, los que guerreaban contra los soldados estadounidenses.

Gracias.
9-terremoto
_________________
"S?lo en el centro se puede vivir." Huehuehlahtolli, la antigua palabra
Title: Mexico
Post by: devnul on November 14, 2005, 12:10:41 PM
Quote

Muchas gracias a devnul por su respuesta.

Le pido a quien responda estos mensajes que lo haga en la secci?n "M?xico", para no perder orden.


Oks,no sabia que habia que responder en este apartado :)

Quote

Ante tu idea de superioridad, y sin ir m? lejos, s?lo vuelvo a preguntar: ?Por qu? no ganaron los espa?oles desde la primera escaramuza, con su teconolog?a, sus caballos y sus armaduras? ?Por qu? ganaron hasta que contaron con los tlaxcaltecas?


Pues la verdad es que no lo se, y contestarte con una suposicion,seria solo eso, una suposicion,asi que voy a informarme del tema (que desde que lo estudi? hasta ahora ha pasado muchiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiisimo tiempo) para poder contestarte mejor :)


Quote

Tambi?n habr?a que ponernos de acuerdo en cuanto a qu? entendemospor AM: la sola lucha cuerpo a cuerpo o todo lo que implica tener presencia en una guerra. En el contexto de la ponencia, parec?a ser lo segundo.


Exacto, una cosa son las Artes Marciales y otra cosa es una Accion Militar (y lo que conlleva eso).

Segun mi opinion habria que diferenciar (si se quiere englobar todo dentro de AM) entre AM enfocadas al ambito militar (KravMaga,System-a,Sambo) Am enfocadas al deporte (aqui entran practicamente todas,exceptuando las de ambito militar) y las AM puras y duras (es decir las originales) de los Monjes Shaolin (kungfu limpio)  y los Guerreros Samurais.

Aunque dentro del ejercito/policia se utilicen tecnicas para controlar,neutralizar,inutilizar a un enemigo,yo no lo pondria como arte marcial (aunque sea de aplicacion militar) aunque como decia antes, cabe destacar que desde un principio habria que tener muy claro que en oriente es una filosofia de vida y en occidente un deporte (excluyendo lo militar)

Quote

Por otra parte, USA perdi? la guerra de Viet-nam a pesar de su napalm, sus aviones, etc. y aqu? definitivamente marc? la diferencia un factor social: las estrategias se multiplicaban porque era TODO el Pueblo, y no s?lo los soldados, los que guerreaban contra los soldados estadounidenses.


Usa la perdio,porque se creia tan pero tan superior a su enemigo,que los subestimo, pasaron de estrategias militares,fueron directamente a por ellos, "a saco" (como se dice aqui) disparando a discreccion,y bombardeando a diestro y siniestro.

Aunque tampoco creo que unos la ganaran y otros la perdieran, ya que ambos bandos sufrieron muchisimas bajas...y,si la estrategia utilizada por los vietnamitas no la hubiera seguido todo dios (es decir personal civil,militar,ni?os,etc) se hubieran quedado sin gente (aun con una buena estrategia) Aun asi... creo que la guerra del Vietnam ha sido una de las guerras mas bestias (en la actualidad) que mas secuelas psicologicas ha dejado tras ella, aunque siempre se habla de la secuelas de los soldados americanos,pero supongo que los vietnamitas... tambien pasaron lo suyo

Quote

Gracias.
9-terremoto


A ti :) un saludo :)
Title: Mexico
Post by: 9-terremoto on November 16, 2005, 06:36:30 AM
Estimado Devnul:

Da gusto ver que se puede tener una pl?tica en t?rminos tan respetuosos. En la red no siempre es as?, y supongo que a ti tambi?n te ha tocado. Yo tambi?n investigar? m?s (yo, con m?s raz?n)  y tratar? de ser objetivo, aunque dudo que alguien pueda llevar su objetividad al 100 %, sobre todo en lo que a historia se refiere.
Atendiendo a la sugerencia de Guro Mauricio S?nchez, aclaro que he firmado con mi nobre calend?rico, 9-terremoto. Mi nombre "oficial" es Valdemar Ram?rez Loaeza y soy estudiante de la academia Sistemas Integrados de Combate.

Gracias por tus comentarios.
Title: Mexico
Post by: devnul on November 16, 2005, 09:13:36 AM
Quote from: 9-terremoto

 dudo que alguien pueda llevar su objetividad al 100 %, sobre todo en lo que a historia se refiere.


Efectivamente,ya que el problema principal, es que la Historia la escribe siempre el ganador de las batallas (es decir,la historia es escrita por aquellos que ganaron la guerra,no por los que sucumbieron).Es por eso que la objetividad es un tanto complicada de obtener,ya que los mismos textos historicos no son objetivos, por eso siempre digo que,aparte de juicios y opiniones personales,siempre habria que investigar las dos caras de la moneda para poder intentar enteder que pas? como cuando y porque :)

Por cierto, mi nombre es David :)  (lo digo porque como todo el mundo firma diferente en los post que no son de AM,pues yo tambien)
y aunque no viene a cuento,como no lo puse en el post de presentacion pues aprovecho para ponerlo aqui :P (algunos datos sobre mi)

Tecnico Superior D.A.I
Tecnico en Electronica Industrial
Tecnico en Automatas Programables

y referente a las AM

Kick Boxing,Boxeo,KravMaga,Systema,WingTsun,BJJ,FMA (aunque a excepcion del KickBoxing & Boxeo) el resto es de forma autodidacta

:)
Title: Mexico
Post by: 9-terremoto on November 29, 2005, 07:33:50 AM
Hola todos.

Mucho tiempo despu?s de leer el mensaje, a?ado un par de notas del perdi?dico "La jornada", donde creo que se explica parte de lo que buscan los zapatistas (o neozapatistas). Cabe aclarar que entre los pueblos ind?genas de M?xico hay una extensa variedad de posturas, es decir que el EZLN no represeta a todos. Por ejemplo est?n grupos pur?pechas de Michoac?n, quienes apoyan al sinarquismo, movimiento en total oposici?n a la izquierda, pues fue con los sinarquistsas donde encontraron respeto a sus tradiciones, entre otras cosas.

Para finalizar mi intervenci?n, quiero se?alar que la fontera sur de M?xico desgraciadamente alberga tambi?n gente muy violenta, que  no necesariamente son mexicanos. Unos de ellos son los miembros de la "mara salvatrucha", organizaci?n criminal que opera en El Salvador, M?xico y el sur de USA. Son verdaderos asesinos con un rollo psicol?gico bastante enfermo: se creen satanistas, pero lo creen en serio. Alguos de ellos, en cambio, han decidido "dejar su vida criminal" con ayuda de la Iglesia Cat?lica, como lo document? hace unos meses la televisora TV azteca. Como soy un aguafiestas, me da muy mala espina el hecho de que esa instituci?n los est? "reclutando".


Gracias.
Valdemar
Va:

 
Martes 29 de noviembre de 2005

Rechazan proyecto de ley ind?gena para Jalisco por "racista y grotesco"
En su declaraci?n emitida en la comunidad huichola de Tuapurie Santa Catarina Cuexcomatitl?n, municipio de Mezquitic, Jalisco, los representantes de pueblos, comunidades y organizaciones ind?genas a la decimos?ptima reuni?n del Congreso Nacional Ind?gena de la regi?n centro-Pac?fico se?alan que el proyecto de ley sobre derechos y desarrollo de los pueblos y comunidades ind?genas de Jalisco -que recientemente les dieron a conocer integrantes del Congreso jalisciense- "no tiene m?s finalidad que restringir los derechos y la autonom?a de nuestros pueblos para provocar su desintegraci?n".
Expresan que las autoridades tradicionales, agrarias y de pueblos y organizaciones ind?genas huichola y nahua de Jalisco enviaron un documento al Congreso jaliciense, en el que afirman que el proyecto de ley sobre derechos de los pueblos ind?genas del estado tiene car?cter "racista, grotesco, violatorio de nuestros derechos humanos b?sicos y contrario a la existencia de nuestros pueblos" por lo que lo rechazan tajantemente.
Anuncian que en caso de ser aprobado por esta legislatura "lo har? en contra de la voluntad" de sus pueblos y, por tanto, recurrir?n a todas las instancias nacionales e internacionales para solicitar se dejen sin efectos dicja ley y las consecuencias jur?dicas que pudiera producir.
En la Delaraci?n de Tuapurie, detallan entre las agresiones contra los pueblos indios que se han incrementado, lo que ocurre con la comunidad wix?rika de Bancos de San Hip?lito, Durango, a la cual se le niega el reconocimiento de sus tierras y su existencia como comunidad, en tanto que otras personas reciben autorizaciones para aprovechar sus ricos bosques de ocote y encino; igual ocurre en el municipio aut?nomo de Suljaa', Guerrero, y su radio comunitaria, que son perseguidos y reprimidos desde el gobierno.
Mencionan que en Misi?n de Chichimecas, Guanajuato, caciques de la regi?n amparados en ilegales resoluciones judiciales pretenden apropiarse de sus tierras comunales; o en Tepoztl?n, Morelos, en cuyas tierras poderosos grupos econ?micos insisten en la construcci?n de un club de golf y actualmente la comunidad lleva su defensa ante los Tribunales Agrarios a pesar de las amenazas para despojarlos, y el caso del ejido nahua de Ayotitl?n, Jalisco, donde la Minera Pe?a Colorada, del grupo Hylsamex, "roba y destruye las tierras, montes y aguas del ejido con la complicidad del gobierno".
Se?alan que en las comunidades zapotecas del istmo de Tehuantepec las compa??as espa?olas como Gamesa, Endesa, Preneal e Iberdrola "est?n robando sus tierras con la intenci?n de construir plantas eoloel?ctricas; o es lo que ocurre en las comunidades nahuas de Cuzalapa y wix?rika de Haimats?e, en el estado de Jalisco, que pretenden ser desmembradas por la aplicaci?n del Programa de Certificaci?n en Comunidades".

Rosa Rojas


Y el otro:
 
Martes 29 de noviembre de 2005
 Llaman a sumarse a la otra campa?a para "resistir la guerra de exterminio neoliberal"

Ratifica el CNI su adhesi?n a la Sexta Declaraci?n de la Selva Lacandona
 La Declaraci?n de Tuapurie condena el uso de transg?nicos y la tecnolog?a terminator
HERMANN BELLINGHAUSEN
 
El Congreso Nacional Ind?gena (CNI) ratific? ayer su adhesi?n a la Sexta Declaraci?n de la Selva Lacandona emitida por el EZLN, as? como su participaci?n dentro de la otra campa?a convocada por la organizaci?n rebelde, "con la finalidad de construir con otros sectores sociales en lucha una gran alianza anticapitalista y de izquierda que permita la construcci?n de una nueva sociedad efectivamente justa, libre y democr?tica".
Las organizaciones reunidas este fin de semana en las monta?as de Jalisco hicieron un "urgente" llamado a la unidad del movimiento ind?gena nacional en torno al CNI, "para que en el marco de la otra campa?a podamos resistir la guerra de exterminio neoliberal y avancemos en el fortalecimiento de la autonom?a de nuestros pueblos, en alianza con todos los sectores de la sociedad empe?ados en la construcci?n de un nuevo proyecto de naci?n y una nueva Constituci?n".
Reunidos en In'akwaixit'a, comunidad wix?rika de Tuapurie, Jalisco, para la decimos?ptima reuni?n del CNI (regi?n Centro-Pac?fico), numerosos pueblos, comunidades y organizaciones de Chihuahua, Durango, Jalisco, Colima, Michoac?n, Guanajuato, Guerrero, Morelos y Oaxaca acordaron la Declaraci?n de Tuapurie.
Dicho documento asienta que el neoliberalismo "es una guerra de conquista y saqueo contra nuestros pueblos, la naci?n y la humanidad en su conjunto, para multiplicar las ganancias de las empresas capitalistas que hoy dominan el mundo y controlan al gobierno del pa?s". Seg?n la declaraci?n "la contrarreforma agraria de 1992 y la contrarreforma ind?gena de 2001, junto con las leyes que en los ?ltimos a?os han aprobado legisladores de todos los partidos pol?ticos, tienen el fin de destruir la naci?n entera".
El documento expresa el rechazo de los pueblos indios a las nuevas leyes Agraria, Minera, de Desarrollo Forestal Sustentable, de Aguas Nacionales, de Bioseguridad y de Consulta a los Pueblos Ind?genas. Tambi?n a las iniciativas de leyes de Acceso a los Recursos Gen?ticos y de Energ?as Renovables, y la reforma de la Ley de Propiedad Industrial, pues "tienen el prop?sito de privatizar y destruir los territorios de la naci?n y de nuestros pueblos, separando cada una de sus partes, que para nosotros son inseparables: aguas, aire, tierras, montes, ma?ces, plantas, animales, bosques, minerales, costas y mares, incluidos nuestros saberes tradicionales".
El rechazo del CNI se extiende a los programas gubernamentales de certificaci?n de derechos ejidales (Procede), certificaci?n en comunidades (Procecom), Oportunidades y pago por servicios ambientales, as? como los intentos por restringir y prohibir la medicina tradicional. Se opone a la introducci?n de ma?z transg?nico y de la llamada tecnolog?a terminator que provoca infertilidad de las semillas; la construcci?n de represas, autopistas, corredores interoce?nicos, megaproyectos tur?sticos, mineros e industriales que facilitan la migraci?n de las familias.
En una menci?n particular, el CNI repueba el proyecto de Ley sobre Derechos y el Desarrollo de los Pueblos y Comunidades Ind?genas de Jalisco, actualmente en proceso, pues "no tiene m?s finalidad que restringir los derechos y la autonom?a de nuestros pueblos para provocar su desintegraci?n".
El CNI manifiesta que los pueblos han incrementado su resistencia y protegido sus territorios y culturas "del modo que les ha sido posible". En este sentido, el levantamiento armado del EZLN "representa un parteaguas hist?rico en el largo caminar de nuestros pueblos y en la lucha por nuestra plena liberaci?n". Junto con los zapatistas, dice, "construimos un movimiento que conmovi? a la naci?n y al mundo, buscando el reconocimiento constitucional de nuestros derechos".
Tras referirse a la "traici?n de todos los poderes del Estado" al aprobar en 2001 la reforma ind?gena conocida como "ley Bartlett-Cevallos-Ortega", el CNI se?ala que esto llev? a los pueblos "a desconocerla y declarar los acuerdos de San Andr?s como la Constituci?n en materia ind?gena". El CNI refrenda su llamado a los pueblos ind?genas para "no solicitar m?s reconocimientos del gobierno, sino fortalecer en los hechos nuestra autonom?a, nuestros gobiernos y nuestra cultura".
El pronunciamiento agrega: "Estamos dispuestos a incrementar nuestra resistencia e incorporarnos al llamado del EZLN para construir una gran fuerza anticapitalista que junte la resistencia de los pueblos ind?genas con las luchas de los trabajadores del campo y la ciudad, y de todo el pueblo de M?xico para construir una sociedad efectivamente justa, libre y democr?tica".
El CNI llama a defender la autonom?a, el territorio, los recursos y las culturas; fortalecer los gobiernos, asambleas, autoridades tradicionales y agrarias "bajo el principio de mandar obedeciendo"; defender el ma?z propio y evitar la introducci?n de transg?nicos. Por ?ltimo, expresa solidaridad con las comunidades de Chiapas afectadas por el hurac?n Stan y los pueblos de Guerrero que se oponen a la presa La Parota.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 21, 2005, 11:56:17 AM
Mexican gangs force Indians to grow opium By Tim Gaynor
Wed Dec 21, 8:12 AM ET
 


PINO GORDO, Mexico (Reuters) - Mexican Indians have grown maize, worshiped nature and lived by the light of pine torches in the canyons of the western Sierra Madre mountains for centuries. But this way of life is abruptly changing.

ADVERTISEMENT
 
 
 
 
Now armed drug gangs are forcing them to plant opium poppies and marijuana in their ancestral lands, which lie in a notorious region dubbed Mexico's 'Golden Triangle' of drug trafficking.

The rugged point where the states of Chihuahua, Durango and Sinaloa meet is home to around 90,000 Tarahumara, Tepehuan, Pima and Guarijio Indians, around half of whom are getting caught up -- only a few of them willingly -- in the spiraling trade, community leaders say.

The vulnerable groups live in log cabins or caves hewn from the rock of the plunging mile-deep canyons. Speaking in a consonant-rich dialect, they live by planting maize and beans and raising goats in a precarious hand-to-mouth existence.

Since the 1970s, tribal activists say at least 40 indigenous leaders have been gunned down by the chainsaw-wielding loggers and drug planters, in a conflict that is little known in the rest of Mexico.

The problem has recently become so bad that it is reaching even far-flung villages like Pino Gordo, a highly traditional Tarahumara Indian community watched over by peyote-chewing shamans, some 50 miles (80-km) from the nearest road.

"Outsiders are coming in and cutting down our oak and pine trees without our permission," the community's traditional leader Prudencio Ramos said in broken Spanish.

"They walk among us with guns and sow marijuana and poppies, and people are afraid," he added.

DRUGS, GUNS AND CHAINSAWS

While home to indigenous groups, the rugged tri-state area is also the cradle of the Mexican drug trade, where Chinese settlers first came in the 19th century to grow opium poppies for morphine-based painkillers sold in the United States.

Now, locals say traffickers are pushing ever deeper into the labyrinthian canyons of the Sierra, felling the old growth forests and planting illegal drug crops away from the vigilant gaze of the Mexican army, who set up road blocks in the area.

"The traffickers look for the most out-of-the-way places to plant marijuana and poppies ... and these are precisely the areas where the indigenous groups live," said Ramon Castellano, a local agricultural consultant of mixed Pima Indian descent.

They force some Stetson-wearing Indian farmers to plant marijuana and poppies at gun point. Others accept seeds, money and provisions from the traffickers in a bid to squeeze a few extra pesos from their marginal lands.

Toward harvest time in March and April, locals say burly cartel minders with assault rifles and two-way radios watch over the pockets of opium poppy blooms, which are transformed into increasingly pure "black tar" heroin and smuggled over the U.S. border.

"If it's a good year, the farmers can earn more than they can by planting maize," said Isidro Baldenegro, a Tarahumara activist who won a prestigious Goldman Environmental Prize this year for his efforts to protect the forest communities.

"But if the army goes in, then they lose the crop and they don't even have the maize left to eat," he added.

Baldenegro, whose father was killed by an unknown gunman in 1986, has an armed police escort when he travels in the mountainous region after being harassed by powerful and well-connected drug loggers.

He was jailed on false charges of arms and drug possession in 2003, before being released 15 months later following pressure from international organizations including Amnesty International.

TRADITIONS UNDER THREAT

Mexican drug gangs are growing increasingly violent, and authorities say they have killed more than 1,000 people since the start of 2005 in a war for control of the lucrative trade in cocaine, marijuana, heroin and amphetamines worth billions of dollars in the United States.

The Sierra Madre Alliance, a nonprofit organization which supports threatened indigenous groups in the region, says the cartels' profits and networks of influence are forcing the Indians off their traditional lands.

The fall-out from the trade is also hitting tribal peoples' customs hard, filling traditional villages with guns, cash and consumer goods, while rates of drug and alcohol abuse there are starting to climb.

"There are now Tarahumara youngsters who smoke marijuana, which they never did before, and it's very common for them to get drunk when they have the money," said Baldenegro.

"They also buy loud radios and play music, which annoys people during the traditional festivals," he added.

Locals say some youngsters now play thumping accordion ballads called 'narco-corridos' honoring local drug lords, while others venerate Jesus Malverde -- the bandits' patron saint.

As the snarling chainsaws and cartel pistoleros close in on Pino Gordo, regarded as one of the last untouched Tarahumara strongholds in the sierra, Baldenegro is desperate.

"We are calling to the four winds for help," he said. "If we don't get it, there is a real danger that traditional life here will simply disappear."
Title: Mexico
Post by: 9-terremoto on December 22, 2005, 11:04:25 AM
Hola todos.

Creo que el tr?fico de drogas es uno de los males m?s arraigados en esta parte del mundo. Desgraciadamente tambi?n es uno de los ?negocios?m?s rentables: quien controla la droga tiene suficiente dinero para repartir entre sus sirvientes y los funcionarios corruptos, y a?n as? vivir con un lujo que muchos de nosotros ni siquiera hemos imaginado.
Pienso que el negocio de la droga se basa, antes que cualquier cosa, en los vac?os existenciales de las personas. William Buroughs, escritor estadounidense adicto a las drogas peligrosas durante muchos a?os, alg?n d?a hizo un comentario que me parece esclarecedor y tambi?n aterrador: mientras haya clientes, habr? tr?fico de drogas. Si liquid?ramos a los grandes vendedores de drogas, otros ocupar?an ese lugar de inmediato (como de hecho sucede), pues mientras haya alguien dispuesto a matar, robar, prostituirse, arrastrarse por su dosis de droga, habr? narcotr?fico.
La otra cara de la moneda es que para muchos j?venes el narcotr?fico se convierte en una atractiva expectativa de vida. Esto es un fen?meno cultural bastante lamentable, y aunque mucha gente puede decir que exagero, pienso que gran parte de esa p?rdida de valores la debemos a aberraciones como los ?narco corridos? y las pel?culas donde se presenta esa forma de vida como algo excitante, inclusive admirable. (Por cierto, si no han visto ?Don de Dios?, h?ganse un favor: no la vean, aparte de cursi, hace quedar el barrio de Tepito, cuna de boxeadores, como un sitio donde los asesinatos son una cuesti?n totalmente aceptable. Propongo cambiarle el t?tulo: ?Los asesinos tambi?n lloran?.)
Por ?ltimo, pero no menos importante: grupos ind?genas de M?xico, como los wirr?rika (huicholes) y los yaquis, han tenido que luchar mucho tiempo para que su relaci?n religiosa con las plantas alucin?genas no sea tipificada como drogadicci?n y distribuci?n de narc?ticos. Ahora los narcos (los jefes son ?mestizos?) han alcanzado a otros grupos vulnerables, que seguramente han pasado por la misma intolerancia, lo cual me parece una desgracia nacional. Su relaci?n con los alucin?genos est? sometida a una cosmovisi?n y a una disciplina f?sica y mental que minimiza los da?os en ambos sentidos. Desgraciadamente, muchas personas de procedencia urbana, con una cosmovisi?n y un estilo de vida diferentes y sobre todo, sin una gu?a, han tomado la costumbre de incursionar a zonas rurales para ingerir hongos, peyote y otros alucin?genos. Por supuesto, lo ?nico que obtienen es un ?viaje? que no les ayudar? a mejorar en nada, pues no tienen el corpus de conocimientos necesario para su interpretaci?n y seguimiento. Este aspecto de los ?para?sos artificiales? ha sido impulsado por la literatura de Jorge Castaneda (?Las ense?anzas de don Juan? y sus no-s?-cu?ntos libros subsecuentes). A sus lectores, antrop?logos y soci?logos en su mayor?a, les sucede lo que le sucedi? a James Douglas Morrison: a ?l se le hizo f?cil ingerir alucin?genos en busca de un ?conocimiento?, confiando ingenuamente en que estaba preparado para hacerlo, cuando toda su instrucci?n chocaba totalmente con ello. Para muestra un bot?n: su cultura intelectual Nietszcheana.
Ahora bien, el uso de alucin?genos por los miembros de distintos grupos ind?genas del continente (pues tambi?n se practica desde lo que hoy es Canad? y Estados Unidos hasta el Cono sur, y por lo menos se practicaba en el Caribe, por parte de los ta?nos), en su contexto, me parece tan respetable como los giros rituales del derviche musulm?n, la meditaci?n del monje budista mahayana, las operaciones del alquimista (si es que a?n los hay) o los eboses (sacrificios) de los yorub?.
Volviendo a la cuesti?n cultural: si bien no es el ?nico factor del narcotr?fico, hay uno muy importante: la educaci?n. Dec?a Confucio que si se educara a la gente, no habr?a necesidad de castigarla. Por supuesto no me refiero a la instrucci?n escolar, sino a la que se recibe, en primera instancia, en casa. Ahora bien, parte de la propia educaci?n tambi?n la elige cada quien. (?C?mo escribir acerca del tema sin sonar publicitario? ja ja ja , en fin) : La formaci?n que proporcionan las AM me parece de primera, pues es una formaci?n para la vida y nos ayuda a permanecer lejos de esos vac?os existenciales de los que hablaba l?neas arriba, y a los cuales debemos gran parte de nuestras dolencias sociales.

9-Terremoto
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 23, 2005, 09:51:51 AM
Si no me equivoco "Jorge Castaneda" es la Sec. de Relaciones Exteriores, y Carlos Castaneda el autor del libros de Don Juan :D

Buen comentario.

La Aventura continua!
Title: ?Resbal?n!
Post by: 9-terremoto on December 23, 2005, 11:01:58 AM
Es verdad, Carlos Castaneda es el antrop?logo, y Jorge era el funcionario, aunque ahora ya no tiene cargo pol?tico. ?Ni hablar, ahora s? tuve un lapsus! :D. ?Juro que s? la diferencia, ja ja ja ja!

Valdemar
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 26, 2005, 06:35:44 PM
Todos:

Disculpen por favor que lo siguiente sea en ingles-- si alguien tiene la manera de traducirlo, pues adelante!

Jude Wanniski, recientemente muerte, fue un economista de tremenda profundidad, aunque tambien fue algo de un "crank" en unos asunstos.

CD
===================



Published: April 12, 1994
El Economista, Mexico City
MEXICO REFORMS
by Jude Wanniski

The most important problem facing Mexico today is the inadequacy of its political system in serving the myriad needs of the Mexican people. From a U.S. perspective, it even occurs to me that the business and political leaders of your country should consider a grand political reorganization, not merely the kind of incremental reforms that are being debated.

The reason is that Mexico`s existing political mechanism evolved during its experiment with socialism, which requires a concentration of power at the elite center. Democratic capitalism functions best when political power is diffuse, widely shared by ordinary people. Luis Donaldo Colosio had embraced this view of political decentralization, as does Ernesto Zedillo and the candidates of the other major parties. This essay may help further the discussion by taking it to a broad, philosophical plain.

More than a century ago, Karl Marx correctly saw that for capitalism to thrive, political power must be dispersed through active universal suffrage. What he saw as the flaw of capitalism was that successful businessmen -- those at the top -- would always tend to use their political power to discourage competition from those at the bottom. Only a democracy that puts political power in the hands of the many can it act as a check on that tendency.

Mexico is now experiencing terrible social distress because the economic reforms of the Salinas Administration have taxed the existing political structure to the breaking point -- like a growing boy who is splitting through an old suit of clothes.

"Salinastroika," as I came to call it in 1989, has been a great boon to Mexico, benefitting the nation in general by reviving an economy that had stagnated under a burden of taxes, inflation, and public enterprises that squandered national resources. But the benefits thus far have been largely concentrated in the industrial and financial centers -- in Mexico City and Monterrey.

The answer is not to tax the centers more heavily in order to redistribute wealth to the less developed states -- Chiapas, for example. The answer lies in reorganizing the national political structure so that states, like Chiapas, will have the ability to increase their own economic welfare instead of relying on the good will of those at the center.

Giving up political power at the center sounds difficult to those who now have it, but it should rather be seen as an investment that will expand the power of all Mexicans -- in the same way a father gives up power over his growing sons. The people of Chiapas do not wish to drag down the people of Mexico City and Monterrey. They just do not want to be left behind.

At a meeting in Mexico City last November, for example, I recommended to some of Mexico`s leading businessmen that Mexico import one of the most successful of the institutions of the United States -- the practice of issuing state and municipal bonds that have been approved in elections by the people whose taxes must ultimately guarantee the bonds.

In the past several decades, Mexico`s national ruling class has maintained the allegiance of the people by gathering in resources at the center and, with a rough sort of justice, distributing those resources through the socialist mechanisms of the PRI.

President Salinas has taken this a step further, by distributing capital assembled at the center to public works projects given priority by the local citizenry. This at least draws on the intelligence of the people of the grass roots in discovering which uses of national capital will provide a reasonable return on investment.

In the United States, because political power is diffuse, the power to tax is diffuse as well. This enables even the smallest political subdivisions to draw upon public resources when all those affected democratically agree to shoulder the increased tax burden should the public investment fail.

There has been no better demonstration of the wisdom of ordinary people when democratically assembled than the public bond issues of the federal system in the United States. Over the last two hundred years, literally several hundred thousand bond issues have been floated by states, counties, cities, and towns as well as districts representing schools, airports, sewer and water systems. Rarely have such bonds failed, so careful are taxpayers and property owners in assessing the investments before they vote.


Democracy works so splendidly when voters can focus on a single issue because the electorate is like a giant computer, linking together the power of the small computers at the heart of the human brain. Individual voters may not be able to compete with the wisdom of the elite at the center, but when massed together in an integrated circuit, ordinary people can outperform any small number of experts on a single yes/no political decision.

The electoral reforms being discussed by leaders of the three main political parties in Mexico attempt to insure honest elections at the presidential and gubernatorial levels. The reforms are naturally resisted by local political operatives who see their way of life challenged by these reforms. From their perspective, Mexico City is taking away political power from the rest of the country in the name of political reform -- increasing power at the center.

The only way to neutralize their opposition is for the three national political parties to agree that some of the taxing power at the center should devolve to the perimeters -- along with the power to capitalize public resources through bond finance. In the United States, income from interest on state and local bonds are tax exempt, which is an efficient way of attracting capital from the wealth at the center to those locales deficient in capital. The system is perfectly suited to Mexico, which is already structured loosely along federal lines.

With this kind of power shift to the states comes responsibility. When people have an opportunity to acquire wealth, they develop a greater respect for property rights. As a result, communities that have honest elections do better than communities that do not. Instead of the national government attempting to police the voting booths, the people do it themselves out of self interest.

The current structure of government in Mexico is perfectly suited to the kind of corporate socialism that has served the people for better or worse. It is organized along the lines of a giant conglomerate called Mexico, Inc., with a chief executive officer who reports to a board of directors, who serves six years and, with the general approval of the board, is permitted to name his own successor.

The formula is superior to monarchy, which transmits power from one generation to another through blood and kinship. In the corporate method, anyone born in Mexico can theoretically grow up to be president. In some of the best days of the Roman Empire, emperors followed the practice of adopting sons deemed worthy of power. Over time, the system broke down through slippage in the selection process -- less able leaders chose less able successors.

The most efficient system is that which gives the whole people the power to select their leaders from the widest possible talent pool. The great religions of the world teach us that saviors can be found born in a stable or abandoned in the bulrushes. In establishing a new political system, the concept might again draw upon the experience of the United States.

It has only been in the last forty years that the American president has been chosen from candidates themselves chosen by the people at large. Prior to the 1950s, there were few primary elections. Democratic and Republican party leaders chose candidates through the convention process, which concentrated power in the hands of the party elite. In a new, decentralized political system, there would have to be some method that would give electoral weight to the considerations of those furthest from the center.

Yet another democratic concept that has served the United States well is that of the electoral college, which is suited to Mexico`s federal system. Its important ingredient is the winner-take-all aspect of state-by-state balloting. This maximizes the importance of small states, whose numbers would otherwise be swamped by the several megastates like California and New York.

It also forces the dominance of two political parties, as it is almost impossible for a major third party to survive a winner-take-all system. A two-party system is technically superior in advancing the national interest because it forces a clear choice in the agendas of the two parties. Multi-party systems introduce confusion in the electorate, leaving critical issues facing a nation unresolved.

If Mexico were to adopt a winner-take-all federal system, one of the three major parties would fade to minor status -- equivalent to the Libertarian or Socialist parties in the U.S. The other two would likely organize around the fundamental principles that have faced all people in all times -- one being the party of security, the other the party of opportunity.

In the smallest political unit, the family, the tension usually lies between the mother`s role of security, wishing to limit risk, and the father`s role of expanding opportunities through greater risk. The modern nation state may seem exceedingly complex next to the family unit, but in simplest terms, it operates best when it is organized the same way, as an aggregation of millions of family units.

If Mexico wished to carry these concepts to the state of the art, it might consider another democratic mechanism that is not now available to the people of the United States, but can be found in Switzerland. That is a national initiative and referendum process, which carries the concept of democracy to its logical conclusion.

In Switzerland each year, the most important issues facing the people are decided by the people in national referenda. Instead of assigning the most important policy questions to national legislatures, which can be considered "committees" of the whole people, the national electorate itself grapples with these five, six, or seven topics.

This mechanism makes Switzerland the most democratic country in the world. It should not be surprising that it is also the most prosperous, with the highest per capita income in the world. It is also a peaceful country, despite the fact that it accommodates four official languages of four distinct ethnic groups.

If Mexico had such a mechanism, it could put questions that now are impossible for it to address to the whole people. Should Pemex be privatized? If the people are asked this question in a public opinion poll, the answer comes back in the negative. In a national referendum on the subject, with voters having to educate themselves on the pros and cons, the results could be quite different. It could also lead to a question on whether citizens who own property should also own the mineral rights to that property -- restoring the law as it existed prior to the revolution.

The same is true of fundamental questions of monetary and fiscal policy, of social policies, and the environment. Instead of national political leaders having to guess at where the people wish to go, they can on the most important questions simply ask them. The ruling class at first glance will always be suspicious of this kind of expansive, active democracy -- believing it would diminish the importance of the elite. Instead, it would put a higher premium on the other elites of society, in business and finance, in the arts and sciences.

The global trend is in the direction of more, not less democracy, as communications become instantaneous, and as competition between nations requires the most efficient decision-making at the level of public policy. Instead of waiting for it to happen elsewhere, Mexico should now consider getting ahead of the curve, of taking this opportunity which history has presented it and discussing the frontiers of democratic possibilities. Instead of incremental reform, it should think of a constitutional convention and a grand reorganization that would put it first in the world at the edge of the new century.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 17, 2006, 05:24:43 PM
Mexico: As Violence Spreads, the Threat to Corporations Rises
February 15, 2006 18 02  GMT



Gunmen killed two police chiefs in northeastern Mexico within hours of one another Feb. 14; one in a wealthy suburb of Monterrey about 150 miles south of the Texas border and the other in the smaller city of Sabinas Hidalgo some 80 miles south of the border. Although still under investigation, the two killings indicate that violence at the hands of organized crime is spreading south from increasingly lawless Nuevo Laredo. Moreover, it seems just a matter of time before the drug lords move into the realm of corporate extortion -- if they have not already.

The first shooting took place in Sabinas Hidalgo after gunmen abducted Police Chief Javier Garcia as he arrived at city hall. Shortly after the abduction, police found Garcia's body on the side of a highway outside the city. Garcia, whose hands were handcuffed behind his back, had been shot in the back of the head. The second attack occurred four hours later in normally peaceful San Pedro Garza Garcia, the Monterrey suburb that is home to most of the city's rich and powerful, and many of the Americans and other foreigners who work in northern Mexico's industrial giant. In that attack, gunmen overtook Police Chief Hector Ayala's vehicle as it traveled in the city, and shot Ayala dead. Although it is unclear whether the two killings are directly linked, they appear to be the work of the drug cartels that operate in the region.





On the same day, heavily armed men entered the emergency room of a hospital in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, and gunned down a patient receiving treatment for a gunshot wound, bringing to 31 the number of people killed in the Mexican border town since the year began. In 2005, at least 181 people died violently in Nuevo Laredo, including 20 or more active and former police officers.

Monterrey, the capital of neighboring Nuevo Leon state and a pillar of the Mexican economy, is connected to the U.S. border by Highway 85 at Nuevo Laredo. On the U.S. side of the border, Highway 85 becomes Interstate 35, running from Laredo through San Antonio, Dallas and on through the central United States. Because of this, the Highway 85 corridor has long been a route for shipping goods -- and for smuggling drugs into the United States.

Monterrey has established itself as a major center for transnational corporate activity. High-tech companies such as Nextel and distribution-intensive companies such as Wal-Mart and the Texas-based supermarket chain HEB all have a presence in the city. Additionally, Mexican transnationals, including Bimbo, Jugomex and Mexican brewing giant Cervecer?a Cuauht?moc Moctezuma have centers of operations in Monterrey. Its geographic location makes it a major transportation hub in the supply chain from Mexican manufacturers to U.S. consumers.

U.S.-based businesses have long conducted operations in some of Mexico's most crime-ridden areas, and have found a way to come to terms with the security risks and the government and police corruption. The spreading violence -- especially to Monterrey -- could indicate increasing moxie on the part of the gangs, however. If they have not yet done so, the gangs could move beyond the realm of drug smuggling and into the world of corporate extortion. In many countries, shaking down corporate executives for protection money is a common practice, and there is little reason to believe such activity could not reach into Mexico. Moreover, in some cases -- Russia, for example -- these shakedowns can come from the host government as well.

It often is hard to tell the extent of underworld extortion of corporations, as more often than not the transnational corporation will opt to deal with the matter privately, rather than report it to the host government or the U.S. Embassy. Reporting a threat to U.S. officials in the country would have little effect, as the most they can do is report these threats back to the host government.

It remains to be seen whether criminal extortion of transnational corporations in Monterrey will become a significant problem. These latest killings do show that gang violence is moving beyond the border cities and into industrial zones. Mexican President Vicente Fox has gone on record as saying that gang violence and activity in the region will continue for the foreseeable future. The transition from drug smuggling to corporate extortion is inevitable, if not already present.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 01, 2006, 04:14:21 AM
Mexican heroes, not Chavez or Lula, inspire leftist By Alistair Bell
Mon Feb 27, 2:43 PM ET
 


MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The man favored to win Mexico's presidential election is often compared to the new breed of Latin American left-wing leaders but he prefers to delve deep into Mexican history to find his role models.

ADVERTISEMENT
 
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the leftist front-runner for the July election, denies he is a populist in the mold of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and he rejects similarities to Bolivia's new leader, Evo Morales, or Brazil's more moderate president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Instead, Lopez Obrador is a keen admirer of Benito Juarez, a poor Zapotec Indian who became Mexico's first indigenous president and a modernizer in the mid-19th century.

At campaign rallies, amateur history buff Lopez Obrador lauds Mexico's independence heroes in the fight against Spain, and famous revolutionaries like Emiliano Zapata and Francisco "Pancho" Villa.

But he reserves most praise for the liberal Juarez, offering a glimpse into the kind of president he might try to be if he wins the July 2 vote.

"We are inspired by Benito Juarez's sobriety, austerity and the firmness of his republican principles," Lopez Obrador told a rally of up to 100,000 people in Mexico City on Sunday.

Lopez Obrador, the capital's former mayor, has topped opinion polls for the last three years, although his lead has faded a bit since campaigning began in January.

Wall Street investors and Washington policy-makers are anxious to know where he fits into Latin America's recent swing to the left. They worry Lopez Obrador will wreck Mexico's financial stability by spending heavily to create jobs, and that he might also take a firm anti-U.S. stance.

Lopez Obrador says he would take Juarez, who expanded civil rights and curbed Roman Catholic Church powers, as an example.

Juarez, a steel-willed man whose face adorns Mexico's 20-peso note, is a national icon for defeating French invaders, drawing up a federalist constitution and bringing a country torn by political and religious chaos under the rule of law.

TOUGH TASK

Lopez Obrador sees in himself a similar willingness to shake up Mexico, blighted by drug gang violence, mass emigration to the United States and grinding poverty, said left-wing historian Lorenzo Meyer.

"What is it that Andres Manuel sees in Juarez? He sees a political leader with a task that is almost impossible," said Meyer.

Lopez Obrador's reluctance to identify himself with other modern leftists might be an effort not to antagonize next-door neighbor the United States, Mexico's key trading partner.

"In their own ways, Lula, Chavez and Kirchner have conflicts with the United States," said Meyer. "Anything Lopez Obrador might say on foreign policy could turn into a problem for him."

But aides say Lopez Obrador, a widower and former Indian rights activist, is driven by a need to leave his own mark on history, in his case by raising millions of Mexicans out of poverty and fighting corruption.

"It is not just about putting the presidential sash on and sitting in the presidential seat," Lopez Obrador said on Sunday. "It's about a real renovation, a true purification of public life."

Lopez Obrador will make history of his own if he wins the election. No candidate from a left-wing party has ever become president in Mexico.

Lopez Obrador called former President Lazaro Cardenas the best Mexican president of last century on Sunday. Cardenas is remembered for nationalizing the oil industry in 1938 and the reference underlined Lopez Obrador's commitment to keep private investment away from state oil monopoly Pemex.

Lopez Obrador speaks little about foreign policy and other regional leaders, which is no loss for some Mexicans.

"We don't know much about them," said florist Estela Ramos, a Lopez Obrador backer. "We have enough problems in Mexico."
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 07, 2006, 11:01:39 PM
!Hijole!  !Otra vez in ingles!
==========================

Illegal Immigration and Tax Rates

Mar 7 2006

Memo To: Lou Dobbs
From: Patricia Koyce Wanniski
Re: Your Tenacity on the Immigration Issue

Until the recent Dubai Ports World uproar, you have been vociferous in covering the story of illegal immigration. While I agree with you the borders ought to be made more secure, I`ve come to believe you are spinning your wheels with the way you have pursued the issue.

One way to end the problem of illegal immigration is, of course, the way you have espoused: tougher border controls, tougher penalties for illegals caught in the U.S., and no amnesty for anybody. Nothing intrinsically wrong with any of those ideas, except that they are expensive and don`t work so well, as we`ve seen. The other way, which you have ignored, is for the Mexican government to make the country`s capital tax structure so attractive to its people that not only do they not want to leave, those who have left will return.

I came across an essay Jude wrote to President Vicente Fox that outlines a way in which this might be accomplished. Of course, some of the tax rates have changed: in 2005, the top marginal rate was lowered to 30 percent; unfortunately, the threshold was lowered as well, and kicks in around US$8,500. Even oil revenues can`t offset the tremendous burden. The tax structure is almost as heavy a millstone as it is in Africa: it`s no wonder Mexicans flee the country in droves for a life here. Solving the problem in Mexico would provide a template for other Latin American countries to follow, alleviating the burden of illegal immigration for the U.S. overall. Perhaps a journalist of your stature bringing the idea to light might encourage the government to consider some of these changes.

Anyway, having doggedly reported on the story for the last several years, I thought you might enjoy a fresh perspective. Here it is, with our compliments.

January 14, 2004

The Mexico Summit

Memo To: Vicente Fox, President of Mexico
From: Jude Wanniski
Re: Exporting Your Citizens

Having had such high hopes for your tenure when you were elected in 1999, Mr. President, I am sorely dismayed that your economy remains in such sad shape that you have to negotiate with our President to send your unemployed to work here illegally. Nothing I saw in your meeting with President Bush indicates you are getting any closer to figuring out that as long as your tax system is so out of line with the US tax system, you will continue to export your people into the American Southwest and California. They are not leaving in search of lower tax rates, mind you. It is just that Mexico?s business class cannot form the capital necessary to sustain broader employment of your people at living wages.

As far as I can tell, your top income tax rate of 33% now applies at an income of about $20,000. In the U.S., the top rate is 38.6%, but that is not encountered until taxable income reaches $312,000. Your 25% rate is reached at $7230 and the closest U.S. tax bracket for a head of household of 27% is reached at $98,000. Your 10% rate is reached at $4114. The U.S. 10% rate is encountered at $10,000. Do you see what I mean?

Then there is your 15% Value Added Tax, which adds to the burdens of enterprise, a tax that the United States does not have at all.

If you check with your finance minister, Francisco Gil Diaz, he will tell you that I have been pestering him for the last four years to cut or eliminate your capital gains tax. There is a zero capital gains tax on shares traded on your stock exchange, I know, but you have to be a big company to trade on the Bolsa. If you are not big enough to be admitted to the Bolsa, you must pay capital gains at the ordinary rates. In other words, the system favors the elites and punishes the pool out of which you would expect to find entrepreneurs who someday might become big enough to compete with the elites. If you would eliminate the capgains tax, which I?m sure you will find brings in very little revenue to your government. This is because it encourages businesses to remain small or to find ways to avoid the tax. You would immediately find the Mexico stock market surging ahead, not because the elites would get a more favorable treatment than zero, but because the economy underneath them would be pushing up the value of all assets. Revenues would then increase dramatically on your income tax and your VAT tax, and you could then easily make provision to lower the burden of the VAT and income tax. I?d recommend you leave the top rate in place at 33% and increase the threshold to at least $100,000.

There are a great many other things you can do to catch up with the United States in the way you originally envisioned, President Fox. But this would be a good start. What you would find, even if you presented such a program to the legislature, that there would immediately be a hesitation of your citizens to leave the U.S., and in a short time there would be a reflow of Mexican nationals who are now struggling to make ends meet in California and the other Southwestern states.

Monetary policy is also something to consider, although here Minister gil Diaz has done a better job in stabilizing the value of the peso. You are always at risk, though, because of the floating U.S. dollar. Here is a memo I wrote to Paco Gil on July 23, 2001, ?Those Unhappy Mexican Farmers.? It was written when your economy was suffering terribly from the monetary deflation caused by the Federal Reserve?s management of the floating dollar.

http://www.wanniski.com/showarticle.asp?articleid=1538

With best wishes for the remainder of your six-year term,

Jude Wanniski
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 14, 2006, 11:55:58 AM
Thugs, Drugs and Coyotes on the U.S.-Mexican Border
In response to testimony that violence along the U.S.-Mexican border is at an all-time high -- and getting worse -- the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee has voted to recommend that the United States increase the number of Border Patrol agents on the job from Texas to California. Even if Congress were to approve the biggest and fastest increase discussed -- as many as 12,000 more agents over two years -- the move is unlikely to stem the wave of humanity and associated violence surging into the United States.

U.S. Border Patrol Chief David Aguilar told the committee that assaults on his agents increased 108 percent between 2004 and 2005, mainly because drug smugglers and "coyotes," those who help illegal immigrants enter the United States for a fee, are more willing than ever to fight agents when confronted, rather than run. The increase in assaults indicates not only that the stakes are getting higher in the smuggling business on both sides of the border, but that a new, more violent group of coyotes is vying for control of the human-smuggling operations in northern Mexico: Central American street gangs known as Mara Salvatruchas, or MS-13.




Meanwhile, violence is raging along the Mexican border -- and in other parts of Mexico -- between rival drug cartels that are competing for control of drug-smuggling operations into the United States as well as for control of the overall illegal drug market within Mexico. In 2005, Mexican President Vicente Fox sent the army to increasingly lawless Nuevo Laredo after two of the last three local police chiefs died at the hands of the cartels, which have started using heavy weapons to fight their wars. Across the Rio Grande in Laredo, Texas, crime rates increased as the fighting spilled over from Mexico. In Arizona, which includes the porous Tucson border sector, meanwhile, federal prosecutors handled 32 cases of kidnapping involving cartel members in 2005, compared to only two cases in 2001.

Although the insecurity along the border has increased concerns in the United States that jihadists and other militants will attempt to enter from Mexico, violence associated with the cartels, the gangs and the coyotes likely will remain the biggest threat. Terrorist infiltration across the Mexican border is possible, but risky. Rather than risk sending a valuable attack team through the violent and unstable border area, jihadists determined to commit terrorist acts in the United States are more likely to enter the country through international airports on valid passports, as did every one of the Sept. 11 hijackers.

Even if Congress were to approve nearly doubling the size of the Border Patrol from its current 11,300 agents, the agency still would be vastly outnumbered. According to the Department of Homeland Security, U.S. agents apprehended 1.1 million people along the border in 2005, although the Border Patrol's catch-and-release policy can force agents to apprehend the same person over and over. Of the total apprehensions, 139,000 of them were criminals, including many from MS-13 and other gangs. For example, of the 2,388 gang members arrested in Operation Community Shield, a two-week law enforcement round-up of illegal immigrants that began Feb. 24, 922 belonged to MS-13 gangs. The criminal element coming over the border has spread throughout the United States, to cities such as Dallas, San Diego, Washington, Miami and Raleigh, N.C. An estimated 500,000 illegal immigrants succeed in making it across the border each year.

Although the vast majority of illegal immigrants continue to be Mexicans and Central Americans lured to the United States by the hope of finding jobs, the new reality on the border, and beyond, is an ever-stronger criminal presence. Congressional debate on immigration reform, which could begin as soon as March 27, will address this new reality -- though fixing the problem will be close to impossible.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 16, 2006, 01:30:55 PM
Mexico: Too Late for New Oil to Help?
March 15, 2006 22 42  GMT



Summary

Mexican President Vicente Fox recently said a new oil field has been discovered off the coast of southern Veracruz in the Gulf of Mexico. The field, which could hold reserves of up to 10 billion barrels of crude, would significantly increase Mexico's total oil reserves, which currently stand at 46.4 billion barrels. However oil production at this site will take several years for technical reasons alone, not to mention the current legal and financial restrictions that Petroleos Mexicanos faces in developing this and other fields.

Analysis

Mexican President Vicente Fox on March 14 officially announced the discovery of a new offshore oil field in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The "Deep Coatzacoalcos" oil field, located around 60 miles from the coast of southern Veracruz, could hold 10 billion barrels of crude, which amounts to more than 20 percent of Mexico's current total reserves of 46.4 billion barrels.

This discovery is important in the context of declining proven reserves. Mexico's main oil field, Cantarell, which is located off the coast of Campeche and accounts for nearly 75 percent of the country's daily production of 3.4 million barrels, has reached its production peak this year. Mexico has started developing other fields, but none of them is large enough to substitute for Cantarell. If the reserves in the Deep Coatzacoalcos field turn out to be as large as announced, Mexico could continue being a relatively important player in the oil market (it is currently the fifth-largest producer and ninth-largest exporter) and secure a stable domestic supply for years. However, it will be several years before production begins because of technical, financial and legal restrictions.

Mexico, which once based most of its exports on oil, has been able to transform and diversify its economy in the past two decades. However, the Mexican government continues to depend heavily on oil revenues to finance public expenditures; more than a third of the government's total revenues come from oil. By taking most of the profits away from state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), the government has left Pemex in a state of chronic underinvestment. This has hampered Pemex's ability to explore for new fields, exploit current fields and process and refine the extracted crude.




The Mexican government also has not used oil revenues to finance a tax reform that would help the government rely less on oil profits over the long run. Moreover, Mexico has not taken advantage of the high oil prices during the past couple of years, since it has been unable to increase production. And when Mexico finally starts producing in the currently underdeveloped oil fields, the high prices might not be there anymore.

Pemex officials admit it will take at least eight years to start producing from the Deep Coatzacoalcos field. With the most modern technology, it would take at least five years to be able to start any kind of production using deep-sea deposits such as those in the new field -- and that is without the financial constraints Pemex faces. Currently, production costs are around $4 per barrel at Cantarell and $5 per barrel at the Ku Maloop Zaap field, which is next in line for exploitation. Pemex estimates that production costs on the new deep-sea fields could reach between $11 and $12 per barrel -- before taxes charged by the Mexican government, which in 2005 equaled around 60 percent of the total sales. Additionally, Pemex faces a total debt of $50 billion. This puts significant financial limitations on the exploitation of Deep Coatzacoalcos.

Mexico not only faces technical problems -- it is clear that Pemex does not have the latest technology to minimize development time -- and high production costs, but the government also restricts private and foreign investment, which could be the only way to sensibly exploit its oil deposits. The Mexican Constitution prohibits foreign and private investment, so the government has been forced to resort to limited subcontracting and even joint investments to build refining plants outside the country. This, along with the aforementioned financial and technical restrictions, could mean that Mexico will see its role as a leading oil exporter diminish while the country faces internal bottlenecks that affect its economic competitiveness.

All the candidates running in Mexico's presidential election, which will be held July 2, have named energy as one of their main concerns. Felipe Calderon, from Fox's National Action Party, and Roberto Madrazo, from the previously long-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, favor changing the law to allow private investment in exploration. However, the current front-runner, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the leftist Democratic Revolution Party, has made maintaining the current restrictions one of his campaign tenets. Lopez Obrador has promised heavy investments into Pemex's modernization, but it is not clear how he would get the money without private investment.

Fox's administration decided to concentrate most of Pemex's scarce investment resources into oil exploration. During the past five years, Pemex has invested more than an estimated $6 billion in finding reserves. The discovery of Deep Coatzacoalcos makes it look like some of that investment will pay off. However, while the discovery of the new oil reserves is good news for Mexico, it will not affect global markets in the short or medium term. Moreover, the economic significance of these reserves for the country could be very low if Mexico arrives late again by refusing to change the status quo so it can develop and take advantage of its oil riches. The discovery of the new reserves is a good opportunity to rethink Mexico's long-term oil strategy.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 14, 2006, 02:40:54 PM
Mexican Military Incursions into U.S. Territory
The current debate in the United States over illegal immigration focuses on the flood of average Mexican and Central Americans who are crossing into the United States to find jobs. An under-reported problem along the U.S.-Mexican border, however, involves incursions by Mexican military personnel into U.S. territory. In some cases, shots have been fired and U.S. citizens threatened. It appears that no government agency on either side of the border has a handle on the motives for these incursions.

According to the Department of Homeland Security, suspected Mexican military units have crossed into the United States 216 times since 1996: 75 times in California, 63 in Arizona and 78 in Texas. U.S. patrols that do encounter Mexican military personnel (or anyone in uniform), however, are under strict orders not to fire, so as to avoid inciting a gunbattle -- and a possible international border incident. Lacking sufficient manpower and resources to patrol the entire border, groups such as the Border Sheriff's Association and Texas Border Sheriffs Coalition have frequently appealed to lawmakers for help.





Some of these incursions could be accidental -- the result of Mexican authorities chasing drug runners or human smugglers into U.S. territory. During a pursuit, the Mexicans could easily lose track of where they are going and wander too far north. In some parts of the border, the demarcation line between countries is extremely hard to distinguish, even for seasoned professionals. And during dry seasons in the Texas region of the border, the Rio Grande can become nothing more than a trickle, making it appear little more than a ditch. It is unlikely that all Mexican military patrols along the border operate with global positioning systems (GPS), so the occasional navigational mistake should not be surprising. In fact, stand-offs have occurred between Mexican military troops and U.S. Border Patrol agents, each one believing the other encroached on their side of the border.

Not all of these crossing could be innocent, however. Mexican military troops could be running drugs over the border themselves or providing logistics and protection for cartels. The Sheriff's Office in Hudspeth County, Texas, reported Jan. 23 that men dressed as members of the Mexican military provided cover for drug runners near the Rio Grande. And, on March 2, Hudspeth County Sheriff's deputies apprehended a Mexican customs officer with detailed maps of the area and a GPS tracking system in his vehicle. The officer was believed to have been performing reconnaissance for drug smuggling routes. This latest case only highlights the relative ease in which Mexican officials can cross into the United States.

It should be noted, however, that in smuggling operations, corrupt Mexican officials and soldiers more than likely have contacts on the U.S. side of the border, possibly in law enforcement agencies.

Paramilitary units along the Mexican border could also be partly responsible. Groups such as the Zetas, highly trained ex-military personnel who have formed a muscle-for-hire organization, have a working relationship with the cartels. These hired guns control large expanses of the Mexican border with enough firepower and training to challenge the Mexican military as well as U.S. Border Patrols. Dressed in combat fatigues, carrying military weapons and driving military-style vehicles, Zetas would be indistinguishable from active-duty soldiers. It also is possible that the Zetas have recruited moonlighting active-duty soldiers along with their equipment and vehicles, further adding to the confusion.

U.S. law enforcement along the border face the constant threat of confronting armed smugglers and drug traffickers. In some cases, they also must deal with U.S. citizens who have formed private vigilante groups, such as the Minutemen. The incursions by Mexican military personnel only add to the chaos.
Send questions
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 23, 2006, 11:27:34 AM
In a City of Killings, Silence Is Golden
Nuevo Laredo, Mexico, is a battleground in a drug cartel turf war. But talking about the crimes can be deadly, especially for journalists.
By H?ctor Tobar, Times Staff Writer
April 23, 2006


NUEVO LAREDO, Mexico ? Here, it's better not to know.

Information can be poison in this border city. Hard-boiled police reporters would rather you didn't tell them the names of certain criminals. When there's a shootout downtown, even the most ambitious radio reporter will not necessarily rush to the scene.

ADVERTISEMENT
 So it went the day last month that four undercover federal police officers were ambushed and killed in thick lunch-hour traffic on the city's busiest street. The offices of several newspapers and radio stations were just blocks away ? but the news broke 700 miles to the south, on the Mexico City wire services.

"I don't mention groups, I don't mention names?. I don't want to know anything," said a newspaper editor here and member of the Assn. of Journalists of Nuevo Laredo. His paper will publish only the barest facts of the crime wave sweeping the city.

"It's not fear, it's being prudent," he explained. Three journalists have been killed here in the last year. "We're not going to try to be the hero of the movie."

The war between the so-called Gulf and Sinaloa drug cartels has been blamed by Mexican federal officials for more than 230 killings in the city in the last 16 months. The journalists who ordinarily would report on such violence have been silenced by cartel operatives who kidnap reporters and repeatedly phone in threats to newsrooms.

Violence and intimidation have created a culture of silence in this city of 500,000 people. Municipal officials rarely comment publicly on the killings. Law enforcement authorities seem powerless. And people here are hard-pressed to remember the last time anyone was arrested or prosecuted for such sensational crimes as the killing of more than a dozen police officers.

"When a crime is committed there should be an investigation, an accused, a punishment," says Carlos Galvan, the owner of two newspapers here. "As long as those things don't happen, speculation eats up [the reputation of] the victim."

Indeed, rumor and mythology are filling the information vacuum in Nuevo Laredo.

Ask why so many people have died here, and there's a good chance you'll be told that the dead have only themselves to blame. The vox populi has it that no "good" or "innocent" person is ever killed in Nuevo Laredo.

"They must have been involved in something," a taxi driver said just a block from the site where the four police officers were killed.

The refrain is reminiscent of dictatorships in other Latin American nations, such as Argentina, where for years people were taken away by soldiers and police officers and "disappeared" without explanation.

Told that the dead were police officers, the taxi driver responded, "The police are all corrupt."

Another popular saying here draws on the Mexican myth that killers are fated to forever drag around the remains of their victims: "Only the person who carries the sack of bones knows why they were killed," people say.

Newspaper and radio reporters here say they would like to tell the full story of the killings. The names of certain drug kingpins circulate among journalists and in other border towns, but have never been printed. Facts might help dispel the myths, they say, as well as the aura of omnipotence that surrounds the cartels. But facts can get reporters killed.

"Some fortunate people who have not been touched directly by the violence can give themselves the luxury of thinking that honest people are not affected," said one journalist who, like many other people interviewed for this article, spoke on condition of not being named. "That's not true."

The cartels are a shadowy but ubiquitous presence. Longtime residents fear their wealth, their armaments and their apparent infiltration of institutions, such as the police force.

"Here, everyone knows who is a narco and who works for them," said one Nuevo Laredo resident, a university student.

"The important thing is not to get mixed up with them and keep a normal life. I even know some narco juniors," the student said, using a term for the young assassins from well-off families recruited to the cartels. "They're very obvious. They show up with the armored pick-up trucks, with guards and all that."

More than 60 people have been killed in the city this year.



 << back     1 2      


The pictures of the dead run in the local newspapers alongside screaming headlines such as "A Rain of Bullets!" Some papers routinely run stark pictures of open-eyed corpses torn up by high-caliber bullets. But rarely will a local newspaper, or a local official, explain why a person was killed or who the killer might be.

Are all the dead drug dealers, or connected with them, as many say?

ADVERTISEMENT
 When a police officer is killed, is it in retaliation for a police raid, or because the officer was mixed up with criminals?

When a journalist is killed or attacked, is it because he or she "offended the sensibilities" (a common Nuevo Laredo euphemism) of one of the drug bands by revealing something about its operations? Or was it because the journalist was working for a cartel and was killed by its rival?

Last year, Tamaulipas Gov. Eugenio Hernandez Flores told residents: "The people of Tamaulipas who behave themselves have nothing to fear" because those being victimized in the wave of violence "are in some way involved with organized crime."

Even people who were close to the victims wonder whether they can ever know why their friends and relatives were killed.

A Nuevo Laredo resident who described himself as a childhood friend of Alejandro Dominguez, a police chief assassinated last year, wonders out loud what his friend might have done to get himself killed.

"You have to go to the root of things. Why did it happen?" says the man, a Nuevo Laredo entrepreneur who asked not to be named. "What did he have in his past? What was his way of living before?"

Dominguez had worked in the attorney general's office.

"He was in law enforcement," the friend said. "And when you're in that job, whether you like it or not, you have to get involved with bad people."

The assassination of Dominguez shook Nuevo Laredo and garnered international headlines. He had been head of the Nuevo Laredo police force for just a few hours when he was gunned down.

"It hits you hard. You know that person, you are with that person, you listen to his dreams and aspirations," the friend said. Still, like many residents here, he was concerned that the killing had been blown out of proportion. He seemed to be angry with his old friend for getting assassinated in such a scandalous way.

"If he hadn't been killed in an hour, it wouldn't have had such an impact on Nuevo Laredo," he said.

Key facts about the drug war are unknown to the general public. For example, it's never been reported here that criminal gangs have threatened local radio stations and newspaper reporters to keep them from reporting on shootings.

Nor has it been reported locally that the narcos have kidnapped journalists. And one Nuevo Laredo reporter told the Mexico City magazine Proceso in February that none who have been kidnapped ? and sometimes tortured ? by the drug bands will file an official complaint.

"Because if there's anyone here who knows that the federal, the state and especially the municipal authorities cannot be trusted, it's precisely us," the journalist said.

The mayor of Nuevo Laredo rejected requests for an interview for this article, as did police officials.

To escape the pervasive sense of danger, many residents, including some journalists, seek out facts that suggest that violence is something that happens to others.

At radio station 95.7 FM, news director Marco Antonio Espinoza disagrees with those who say his colleague Ramiro Tellez was killed because he was a journalist.

"The problem did not occur because of journalism," Espinoza said. Tellez really wasn't a journalist, Espinoza said. "He'd come in here in the morning and do the weather report. Then he would leave."

Tellez, who was killed March 10, worked as director of the city's emergency and police communications system. Sources speculated that Tellez may have been killed because the city had recently installed a communications system that made it difficult for criminals to monitor police radio transmissions.

"We stay away from police stories," Espinoza said. "It was the other job that caused his problem."

The newspaper El Ma?ana decided to "self-censor" its coverage after editor Roberto Mora Garcia was slain outside his home in 2004. Nevertheless, on Feb. 6, the newspaper's offices were attacked and a reporter seriously wounded by men wielding assault rifles and hand grenades.

Sources in Nuevo Laredo's journalism community offered several theories about the reason. Maybe it was because of the Proceso article that had come out a day earlier. Maybe it was because El Ma?ana had recently participated in a journalism symposium with out-of-towners. Or maybe it was because of a certain story that mentioned the sighting of a cartel hit man.

"Who was responsible?" El Ma?ana asked in an editorial after the February attack. "We don't know. It could have been anybody. They are ghosts.

"Many times we in the media are attacked in order to blame a rival group, so that a crackdown by the authorities on that rival group will follow.

"It's the new method of doing terrorism."

*
Carlos Mart?nez of The Times' Mexico City Bureau contributed to this report.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 04, 2006, 04:42:05 AM
Guau:

?Alguien quiere comentar sobre el nuevo proyecto/ley sobre posesion de varias drogas?

===========
MEXICO CITY (AP) -- Mexican President Vicente Fox refused to sign a drug decriminalization bill Wednesday, hours after U.S. officials warned the plan could encourage "drug tourism."
Fox sent the measure back to Congress for changes, but his office did not mention the U.S. criticism.
Fox will ask "Congress to make the needed corrections to make it absolutely clear in our country, the possession of drugs and their consumption are, and will continue to be, a criminal offense," according to a statement from the president's office.

On Tuesday, Fox's spokesman had called the bill "an advance" and pledged the president would sign it. But the measure, passed Friday by Congress, drew a storm of criticism because it eliminates criminal penalties possession of small amounts of heroin, methamphetamines and PCP, as well as marijuana and cocaine.


Earlier in the day, the U.S. government expressed a rare public objection to an internal Mexican political development, saying anyone caught with illegal drugs in Mexico should be prosecuted or given mandatory drug treatment.
"U.S. officials ... urged Mexican representatives to review the legislation urgently, to avoid the perception that drug use would be tolerated in Mexico, and to prevent drug tourism," U.S. Embassy spokeswoman Judith Bryan said.
There are concerns the measure could increase drug use by border visitors and U.S. students who flock to Mexico on vacation.

Bryan said the U.S. government wants Mexico "to ensure that all persons found in possession of any quantity of illegal drugs be prosecuted or be sent into mandatory drug treatment programs."
Jerry Saunders, mayor of San Diego - just a short drive from the border town of Tijuana, Mexico - applauded Fox's decision, saying he was "appalled" by the bill because it could increase drug availability north of the border.
"We have been a partner with Mexico in fighting against illegal drugs, and this will only help in the long-term in that relationship," he said.
The legislature has adjourned for the summer, and when it comes back, it will have an entirely new lower house and one-third new Senate members following the July 2 elections, which will also make the outgoing Fox a lame duck.

However, Sen. Jorge Zermeno, of Fox's conservative National Action Party - a supporter of the bill - said he thought Congress would be open to changing the legislation to delete a clause that extends to all "consumers" the exemption from prosecution that was originally meant to cover only recognized drug addicts.
"The word 'consumer' can be eliminated so that the only exemption clause would be for drug addicts," Zermeno told The Associated Press. "There's still time to get this through."
The bill contained many points that experts said were positive: it empowered state and local police - not just federal officers - to go after drug dealers, stiffened some penalties and closed loopholes that dealers had long used to escape prosecution.
But the broad decriminalization clause was what soured many - both in Mexico and abroad - to the proposal.

Mexico's top police official, Eduardo Medina Mora, acknowledged on Tuesday that the U.S. anti-drug agency has expressed concern about the law. Some senators and community leaders in Mexico also objected to the bill. But even if it had passed, he noted that Mexican cities have the power to impose fines and overnight jail detentions for those caught with drugs in public.
Current Mexican law allows judges latitude to drop charges if suspects can prove they are addicts and the quantity they were caught with is small enough to be considered "for personal use," or if they are first-time offenders.
The new bill would have made the decriminalization automatic, allowed "consumers" as well as addicts to have drugs, and delineated specific allowable quantities, which do not appear in the current law.
Under the law, consumers could have legally possessed up to 25 milligrams of heroin, a half a gram of cocaine and about one-fifth of an ounce of marijuana.
__________________

=============

Cambiando el tema, he aqui lo siguiente:

CD
==============


May 4, 1:21 AM EDT
Mexican Protesters, Police Clash; 1 Dead
By EDUARDO VERDUGO
Associated Press Writer
SAN SALVADOR ATENCO, Mexico (AP) -- One person was killed as machete-wielding protesters near Mexico's capital clashed with police Wednesday, blocking highways, throwing molotov cocktails and briefly seizing six officers.
A 14-year-old boy from San Salvador Atenco was killed, though circumstances surrounding his death were unclear, said Humberto Benitez, secretary general of the state of Mexico.
Benitez said, as did a spokesman for the Federal Preventative Police, that a federal police agent was also beaten to death. Hours later, however, Mexico state Gov. Enrique Pena Nieto called television stations to say the officer remained hospitalized in serious condition.

Television images from helicopters overhead showed residents repeatedly punching and kicking the semiconscious officer even after he had been put inside an ambulance.

The residents, who have a history of fights with authorities, attacked police after several of their companions were arrested in the nearby town of Texcoco, according to media reports.
Hundreds of police fired tear gas into the crowds and arrested 31 people. A tense calm settled over the town after dark, though residents continued to block nearby highways.

Shortly before midnight, community leaders released six state and federal police officers they had taken hostage hours earlier. Officials said it was a gesture of good will since all of the officers were injured in the clashes.
At least three dozen police officers were injured, according to media reports. An Associated Press photographer suffered minor bruises after being clubbed during the melee.

Elsewhere in Mexico, gunmen opened fire on a group of officers eating lunch in a restaurant in the troubled border town of Nuevo Laredo, injuring five officers and a bystander.
Three officers were in serious but stable condition after the attack while two others suffered minor injuries, said Rene Ruiz, an investigating agent.
No arrests were made and investigators said they didn't know why the officers were attacked or how many assailants were involved.
Nuevo Laredo, a city of 330,000 across from Laredo, Texas, has been caught in a turf war between rival drug gangs fighting for billion-dollar smuggling routes into the United States. Since Jan. 1, about 100 people, including eight police officers, have been slain in the city, compared to 23 during the same period last year.
Title: Mexico
Post by: omar on May 04, 2006, 04:39:49 PM
Guau a todos, sobre la ley de posesion de droga en cantidades peque?as no hay mucho que comentar tan solo que es otra reforma confusa que da oportunidad al abuso y la extorsin de las autoridades, en ella definen cantidades de droga que se entiende como consumo personal :roll:  y mensiona que para poder ser amparado por esta ley el presunto infractor debe comprobar que es adicto y necesita esa dosis minima  :?:  :?: , asi como estar dispuesto a someterse a un programa de rehabilitacion, quienes promosionan esta ley dicen que es para poder distinguir un consumidor de un vendedor y evitar que el primero sea condenado como traficante por el hecho de llevar droga (el castigo ve de 2 a 8 a?os de prision)

Sobre los disturbios se originaron cuando un grupo de vendedores de flores del poblado de Texcoco intentaron ser desalojados de su habitual punto de venta y rehubicados, esta decision de la autoridad no les gusto, se opusieron y con la intervension de los pobladores de San Salvador Atenco la violencia del enfrentamiento se escalo a los niveles que mensiona el articulo, en estos momentos aun hay policias tomados como rehenes por la poblaci?n y una tensa calma.

Como algo para comentar los pobladores de Atenco luchan con machetes y esto se ha convertido en su distintivo, con esta tactica se opusieron a la cosntruccion del aeropuerto en sus tierras e hicieron retroceder al gobierno y se les conoce como los precursores de la ley del machete

Omar
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 12, 2006, 12:26:08 PM
Beheadings in Mexico: The Foreign Element in Mexico's Drug Wars
On May 8, authorities in the town of Aguaje in Mexico's Michoacan state found the beheaded body of Hector Espinoza, a lawyer whose client had been detained by authorities on suspicion of belonging to a drug cartel. The gruesome discovery came nearly three weeks after two police officers were beheaded in the resort city of Acapulco. Although beheadings bring jihadist groups to mind, these more likely were perpetrated by criminals or militants from elsewhere in Latin America.

Espinoza was defending Armando Sanchez Arreguin, an alleged member of an independent drug cartel led by Juan Far?as, also known as "the Grandfather." Arreguin was captured after being wounded in a shootout with the rival Millennium cartel. His lawyer's severed head was hung from an archway that serves as one of the entrances to Aguaje. A homemade "welcome" sign was affixed nearby.

On April 20, the heads of two police officers were left in front of a government building in Acapulco's La Garita neighborhood, mere blocks from the resort town's tourist strip. A red cardboard sign that read, "So you learn some respect," was taped on the wall nearby. The officers' bodies were found miles away, wrapped in plastic sheeting and duct tape. The killings appear to be revenge for the officers' part in a gunfight some months earlier between police and suspected gang members, in which four suspects were killed. One of the officers was subsequently seen in a video aired on Mexican television, which shows him killing a gang member execution-style during the shootout.

Killings of police officers, judges and other officials have become widespread in Mexico, as rival drug cartels battle over turf. The two main combatants are the Gulf cartel, allegedly run from prison by Osiel Cardenas since his arrest in 2003, and the Sinaloa cartel, run by Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, who escaped from prison in 2001. The Gulf cartel has used a group of former Mexican airborne troops known as "Los Zetas" in its war against the Sinaloa cartel. These well-organized and heavily armed enforcers have a well-deserved reputation for brutality. In addition to the main cartels, smaller cartels and autonomous gangs participate in drug-related violence.

The main fronts in the war are Nuevo Laredo and Tijuana, both on the U.S. border. In those cities, police officials have been killed, rival gangs have fought each other with heavy weapons, and U.S. citizens have gone missing. In recent months, however, Acapulco has become increasingly violent as the fighting spreads.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 15, 2006, 08:40:55 AM
?Nadie tiene algo para compartir del perspectivo Mexicano?

MEXICO: A new poll released by El Universal newspaper gives Mexico's Felipe Calderon from the conservative National Action Party the lead ahead of the July 2 presidential elections. Calderon is preferred by 39 percent of respondents, against 35 percent for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party and 21 percent for Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolution Party. This is the first time that an El Universal poll has given the lead to Calderon, who is now the front-runner in all the opinion polls released in the past three weeks.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 21, 2006, 05:21:31 AM
BEYOND THE LAW
A 'Black Hole' on a Porous Border
Corrupt police and complicit citizens make Jacume a forbidding redoubt where smugglers of drugs and immigrants operate with a sense of impunity. 'They own the place,' says a Mexican official.
By Robert J. Lopez, Richard Marosi and Rich Connell, Times Staff Writers
May 21, 2006


Perched on a ridge a few hundred yards from the international line, an A-frame house with a wraparound balcony gives smugglers a 180-degree view of U.S. border defenses.

Spotters track the movement of Border Patrol agents with binoculars and use two-way radios to steer drug runners and human traffickers through unguarded areas.

 As agents closed in on suspected smugglers last summer, lookouts on the Mexican side bombarded them with rocks and retreated to the A-frame.

"They have the high ground on us," said Sonia Spaulding, the supervising Border Patrol agent during the attack. "They can see our every move."

Jacume is a "black hole," an enclave largely beyond the control of authorities on either side of the border because of its remote location, complicit residents and corrupt Mexican police. Jacume has flourished as a launch pad for smuggling of drugs and people since U.S. authorities stiffened border defenses near San Diego a decade ago. Traffickers simply moved their operations east, into the forbidding valleys and mountain passes surrounding the village.  As President Bush prepares to use National Guard troops to help seal the border, Jacume and places like it represent a formidable challenge and illustrate why the U.S., as Bush noted, "has not been in complete control of its borders" ? and may never be.

Mile-for-mile, more drugs are seized in this area than almost anywhere else along the California line. In the last fiscal year, federal agents captured an average of 400 pounds of marijuana and 660 migrants each month. In the first eight months of this fiscal year, drug seizures are nearly triple last year's total.

Jacume residents have become beholden to smugglers whose activities pump cash into the community. Mexican federal agents have been taken hostage here. Police won't enter the town without heavily armed backup, so entrenched are the traffickers and their supporters.

"They own the place," said Armando Vale Saldate, civilian director of the Tecate Police Department, which oversees Jacume.

Little is known publicly about the inner workings of Jacume's smuggling economy. But confidential law enforcement documents, as well as interviews with residents, smugglers and U.S. and Mexican officials, reveal layers of corruption extending from the traffickers to top police officials and the ruthless Arellano-Felix drug cartel.

The A-frame with the strategic vantage point is used by a convicted drug felon who is "the leader of an immigrant trafficking organization," according to a report by the Mexican attorney general's office and other sources.

Complaints filed secretly by officers of the Tecate Police Department and reviewed by The Times say a top commander and other supervisors collected thousands of dollars a week in protection money from smugglers moving drugs and migrants across the frontier.

Smuggling Is a Mainstay

Tucked into an isolated high desert valley 70 miles east of Tijuana, Jacume sits at the end of a rutted dirt road. Swirls of dust and headlights announce approaching vehicles long before they pass an old chicken farm and the rusted shells of abandoned cars en route to the village's small plaza.

Founded 80 years ago as communal farm, the town has a few hundred residents, many of them related to one another. In the small grid of dirt roads and cinder-block homes, there are two restaurants, a few mom-and-pop markets and a small church with whitewashed walls.

Smuggling is an economic mainstay. Residents pocket up to $50 a day ? about 10 times the minimum day's wage in Mexico ? for each northbound migrant they harbor in their homes or farms. Storing drugs can earn them hundreds of dollars more. Merchants cater to the migrants' needs.

"It's good business for everybody around here," said Mario Ramirez, who operates Jacume's main restaurant. "People need to eat and need water."

Government authority has long been tenuous here.

In 1998, residents took two Mexican federal agents hostage for extorting money from smugglers, according to Mexican authorities. The captives were freed after an agreement was reached: The agents would return the money, and the smugglers would not file complaints against them.

A few years later, unarmed Mexican immigration agents who chased a suspected smuggler's car into Jacume were greeted by bat-wielding residents. The agents retreated without making an arrest and now rarely enter the town, said immigration officer Felipe Flores.

The alleged smuggler said to use the A-frame is Israel Martinez, 37, according to confidential law enforcement records and sources.


He came to the attention of U.S. investigators in 1995, when officers stopped two pickup trucks on the U.S. side of the fence across from Jacume and found 450 pounds of marijuana inside, according to San Diego Deputy Dist. Atty. Steve Walter. Martinez and another man were arrested.

Martinez pleaded guilty to transporting marijuana and was sentenced to two years in California state prison. He was later deported.

U.S. authorities, working with Mexican agents, have launched a new investigation of Martinez and his suspected smuggling network.

Martinez's organization employs guides on foot, drivers and lookouts to shepherd drugs and people across the frontier, according to law enforcement records and sources.

Mexican and U.S. sources who have interviewed traffickers in custody, including alleged members of Martinez's group, say his organization is suspected of moving large quantities of marijuana across the border for the Arellano-Felix cartel, a Tijuana-based syndicate that controls drug trafficking across Baja California.

Efforts to reach Martinez for comment were unsuccessful.

A relative claimed to have no knowledge of Martinez's involvement in trafficking and said he went into hiding after 20 armed men stormed his home in Jacume in September.

The men, some with bandannas covering their faces, were looking for money and for Martinez, according to the relative, who asked not to be identified.

Investigators say his organization remains active. Martinez is not the first suspected of exploiting the views afforded by Jacume's hills.

A smuggler named Jaime Ochoa, alias "El Cachetes," or Cheeks, allegedly directed runs from tree platforms on his property.

In one of the few successful raids ever conducted in Jacume, a federal SWAT team from Mexico City posing as telephone repairmen stormed Ochoa's home three years ago. U.S. investigators pressed for action after learning that Ochoa might be operating a smuggling tunnel.

The Mexican agents found binoculars, two-way radios, an Uzi submachine gun, a map of smuggling routes and what appeared to be a partially dug passageway, according to U.S. and Mexican authorities.

Ochoa was caught fleeing in a pickup truck and later found guilty of weapons violations, Mexican authorities said.

The raid's success was unusual for Jacume because residents often tip off smugglers, said a U.S. agent who participated in the operation.

"We usually come back empty-handed," he said.

'I Like Police Raids'

The sun-baked hills and valleys between Tecate and Jacume, where the Arellano-Felix cartel stores and moves marijuana, is territory that has been overseen by Daniel Mora, until recently police commander for the area.

For Mora and other officers, who earn as little as $600 a month, patrolling this terrain involves a stark choice: Take a stand against the traffickers, or join them.


As Mora tells it, he's the kind who takes a stand.

Squat, with a thin mustache, he started as an officer in Tijuana. His left eyebrow and scalp bear scars from a head-on car crash with assault suspects. He has been involved in three shootouts and numerous operations against drug and car-theft rings ? some in the Jacume area.

 "I like police raids," the 33-year-old Mora says.

After three years in Tecate, he was promoted to commander. But last year he was suspended, demoted and banned from patrolling Jacume and other trafficking hot spots because of suspicions that he was in league with smugglers.

The Mexican attorney general's office is investigating the allegations.

Among information turned over to investigators are a dozen unsigned complaints e-mailed to the Tecate city internal affairs office. The authors, who identified themselves as police officers, said Mora and five supervisors, including one now overseeing Jacume, were running a protection racket.

One complaint, written in January, said Mora is tied to 10 human smugglers and drug traffickers and receives $5,000 a week in payoffs.

"We are asking with all our heart that these personnel ? stop interfering with public safety," said another complaint, received in February.

Contacted by The Times, the authors of the complaints said in e-mails that they feared for their lives and declined to reveal their names or answer questions.

Smugglers detained by Mexican officials have said they paid Mora a "quota" or had "an arrangement" with him to operate in the Tecate area, according to interview records.

Mora said the allegations are groundless and originate with disgruntled colleagues.

"It's political," Mora said in an interview at a San Diego-area restaurant. He predicted that he would be cleared, adding: "I'm not going to run, because I have absolutely nothing to hide."

Bold and Brazen

Lawlessness spills across the border from Jacume and into the United States month after month. An episode last summer, described in federal court records and interviews, underscores the smugglers' brazenness and sense of impunity.

One night in August, a white Chevrolet Suburban made its way through the village. It stopped at a ranch and an abandoned home, picking up half a dozen migrants who had paid up to $2,000 each to get to the U.S.

They squeezed into the SUV, alongside suitcases stuffed with 700 pounds of marijuana, a load worth more than half a million dollars. The vehicle's front bumper was reinforced with steel, and its tires were filled with silicon to withstand the spike strips used by U.S. border agents.

After snaking through town, the SUV rolled up to the international divide, where a pickup truck waited. Its driver yanked open a section of rusty fence that had been pre-cut by smugglers.

A hand-painted sign on the Jacume side of the border fence bade the migrants farewell: To the north is work and prosperity, but don't forget where you came from.

The SUV driver shot through the gap toward Interstate 8, a couple of miles away.

A short while later, a Border Patrol anti-smuggling team saw the SUV driving slowly and a California Highway Patrol officer pulled the vehicle over. As the officer stepped out of his car, the SUV driver made a daring move. He switched off the lights and raced up an offramp heading west toward San Diego in eastbound lanes.


----------------

CHP officers chased the vehicle. Up ahead, more patrol units weaved across lanes with their lights flashing, trying to hold back traffic and prevent a head-on crash.

Spike strips were thrown on the road. But the Suburban sailed over the devices. The migrants inside later told investigators the SUV had hit speeds as high as 90 mph. One remembered praying as sirens blared and lights flashed around them. "Get down and don't move!" the driver yelled in Spanish.

 
Seconds later, he smashed into a patrol car. The SUV veered to a halt and the driver bolted into heavy brush, escaping toward the border.

Five migrants were rounded up. They identified the driver as 26-year-old Jovanni Mendoza, according to court records.

Border Patrol agents had a thick folder on Mendoza, court records show.

In 2002, he was arrested by Border Patrol agents after a foot chase north of Jacume, suspected of driving a van crammed with 31 illegal immigrants. He was released after the migrants refused to identify the driver.

Last spring, Border Patrol agents fired at a blue Suburban registered to Mendoza as it allegedly tried to run them down at a U.S. checkpoint northwest of Jacume. The SUV took off on the wrong side of Interstate 8. Agents could not identify the driver.

A week after the wrong-way crash, Border Patrol received reports of a Suburban on a suspected smuggling run near the same stretch of Interstate 8. A vehicle matching that description was stopped at a checkpoint.

Mendoza was behind the wheel. He now faces 12 counts of smuggling humans and drugs and has pleaded not guilty in U.S. District Court in San Diego. His arrest has done little to slow the pace of cross-border crime in Jacume.

Earlier this month, residents alerted Border Patrol agents when they saw a vehicle using metal ramps to drive over a low section of the fence near Jacume. When the vehicle fled, agents threw spike strips on the road, shredding its tires. The vehicle lost control and flipped. One thousand pounds of marijuana was found inside.

Within days, two more loads of marijuana ? 700 pounds each ? were intercepted coming out of Jacume.

"There's no bottom to their well," said a Border Patrol agent, standing guard one evening near the bullet-riddled fence below the A-frame house. "It just keeps coming."
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 23, 2006, 08:56:33 AM
Summary

Mexican President Vicente Fox will visit three U.S. states May 23-27, where he will address recent developments on the U.S. debate about immigration. Among these developments are U.S. President George W. Bush's May 15 proposal to deploy National Guard forces along the U.S.-Mexico border and his support for a guest-worker program. They also include the rekindled debate on border security and immigration reform in the U.S. Senate, which approved measures on both topics during the past week. The U.S. debates on border security and immigration reform resonate as strongly in Mexico as they do in the United States.

Analysis

Mexican President Vicente Fox will visit Utah, Washington and California, May 23-27. While the visit was planned some time ago, the agenda and talking points of Fox's trip will focus on the past week's developments in the U.S. immigration-reform and border-security debates. Among these developments are U.S. President George W. Bush's May 15 proposal to deploy National Guard forces along the U.S.-Mexico border and his support for a guest-worker program. They also include the rekindled debate on border security and immigration reform in the U.S. Senate, which approved measures on both topics during the past week. The Senate has also voted to build a fence along sections of the U.S. border, to establish English as the official language for government activities and to allow illegal immigrants possible citizenship under certain conditions.

A Deeply Rooted Issue

Without doubt, human migration tops the bilateral agenda between the United States and Mexico. Emigration from Mexico to the United States has deep historical and economic roots. It also affects a great number of Mexicans, who increasingly have relatives and friends who have immigrated to the United States, both legally and illegally. Thus, any change in the situation of the Mexican immigrants in the United States has major economic, social and political consequences in Mexico.

As we have previously discussed, immigration to the United States from Mexico is different from immigration to the United States from other countries due to history and geography. And while the flow of people coming from Mexico into the United States has existed for many, many years, these numbers exploded in the last 25 years. Thus, between 1.2 million and 1.5 million Mexicans immigrated to the United States during the 1970s, around 2.3 million did so during the 1980s, and around 3.3 million did so during the 1990s.

During World War II, the United States approached the issue by establishing a guest-worker plan known as the Bracero Program, which lasted until 1964. During its existence, the Bracero Program served as the most significant source of Mexican labor in the United States. After the program ended, with a limited number of visas available, many Mexicans crossed the border without official documentation. Several factors in Mexico prompted this exodus.

The Mexican economy experienced a series of crises in 1976, 1981-82, 1986 and 1994-95, which increased Mexico's relative poverty levels and hindered its economic performance. These crises generated the conditions for the continually increasing rate of Mexicans immigrating to the United States. Most other Latin American countries suffered deep economic crises during the 1970s and 1980s and political instability, yet they did not produce the number of immigrants to the United States that Mexico did. Mexico, by contrast, passed through these economic episodes with little political turmoil and largely pacific power transitions, and even so huge numbers of emigrants went north. Geography and -- more importantly -- economics explain the difference.

Mexico's Economic Safety Valves

Emigration toward the north became one of two very important safety valves for the Mexican economy, one successive Mexican governments used to maintain domestic social and political stability. The other safety valve was the notable increase in the informal sector of the Mexican economy. Emigration was traditionally a safety valve for rural areas while the informal economy served urban centers.

Over the years, however, the number and origin of Mexican immigrants to the United States has evolved. During the 1970s and 1980s, most of the Mexican immigrants to the United States came from Mexico's poorest and more rural states -- the same states most closely linked to the Bracero Program. Since the 1990s, however, that has changed. According to the Mexican Population Council, new immigrants to the United States come from all of Mexico's regions, and their gender and economic background diversity is growing.

Estimates of the number of Mexican immigrants to the United States vary, but hover around 10 million to 11 million people, which includes those of both legal and illegal status -- around 10 percent of the number of people living in Mexico. Estimates also hold that the informal economy in Mexico covers another 10 million to 15 million people. Combined, this means almost a quarter of the Mexican population is either not formally employed or is outside of the country. Starting in 1986, successive Mexican administrations engaged in fundamental economic reforms with the entry of Mexico into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (now the World Trade Organization, or WTO). The nation's economic crises were so deep-seated, however, that even the WTO-inspired reforms have not helped the Mexican economy grow fast enough to provide enough jobs for Mexico's swelling labor force.

Along with previous Mexican governments, the Fox administration has found that using the two aforementioned safety valves has greatly helped maintain social order. Mexico City sees Mexican immigration to the United States as a win-win situation for both countries, since the immigration safety valve means the United States does not have an unstable neighbor to its south.

The Importance of Remittances

As the number of Mexican migrants to the United States has increased, so have their money transfers to their families in Mexico. In 2005, Mexican migrants in the United States remitted around $18 billion back to Mexico -- an extremely important source of cash for Mexico, roughly equal to foreign direct investment in the country. The Mexican government clearly does not want these remittances from the United States to disappear.

The Fox administration has established programs to match every dollar received from Mexicans in the United States with money put into projects to improve infrastructure. All of the contenders in Mexico's July 2 presidential election have proposals on how to better use those resources, from improving those matching funds to establishing a structural fund to transfer money to impoverished regions of Mexico, as is done in the European Union. Thus, massive deportations of Mexicans from the United States would have immense economic and political consequences in Mexico.

The Mexican government also needs to walk a fine line between working closely with the United States and not appearing too subservient to Washington. For historical reasons, Mexico has a love-hate relationship with the United States. In the past couple of decades, this relationship has tilted more toward the love part of the equation. The signing of the North American Free Trade Act (NAFTA) in particular shifted the historical equation. In general, Mexicans believe a close relationship with the United States is inevitable, and largely beneficial for both. Even so, they resent any perceived heavy-handed attempts -- or even suggestions -- by the United States to force policy on Mexico. Mexicans expect their government to respond harshly to the United States when needed, as long as those responses are kept on the rhetorical level.

Fox Falls Short

The Fox administration has worked to push for a migration agreement allowing Mexican nationals to cross the border and work freely in the United States on the premise that given geography and economics, the flow north from Mexico cannot be blocked successfully; something similar to what Fox proposed may in fact come to pass. But Fox pushed too hard, and was unable to convince many on the U.S. side that he was fulfilling his part of the job of ensuring border security.

Much of the U.S. resentment against perceptions that Mexico is not adequately securing its side of the border stem from the fact that while the Mexican government allowed its two economic safety valves to develop, it also allowed another development to flourish: drug trafficking and organized crime. This has led to a border security problem of considerable size, one that has accelerated over the past two to three years. Drug cartels operating in the border cities have become more violent, which has in turn fueled the security concerns of people living in the border region. While the Fox administration has tried to fight these cartels, the violence has increased -- thus complicating his efforts to push for immigration reform in the United States.

Whether the new Mexican administration taking office Dec. 1 will be any more effective in fighting the drug cartels than the Fox administration has been remains unknown. Changing public opinion in the United States, however, will require a more effective Mexican response to drug crime on the border.

A Not-So New Direction

Whichever political party wins the July 2 Mexican presidential election, the new government's position on border issues will be very similar to the current position. The Mexican government will always oppose the construction of any fence or wall, since most Mexicans deeply resent such a prospect. It will also oppose any attempt to turn illegal immigrants in the United States into felons because of the ill economic effects this would have in Mexico. And it will not follow any U.S. suggestions that it work to stop Mexicans from crossing into the United States, perhaps pointing out that the U.S. government does not prevent its citizens from leaving the United States as they please. What could change is the level of cooperation between the Mexican and U.S. governments.

Before Vicente Fox's arrival, Mexican governments were not as active in advocating for issues that concerned the Mexican community inside the United States. In contrast, Fox has advocated, for example, for the pardon of U.S. death-row inmates of Mexican origin. Nor did previous Mexican administrations make much noise when Mexican nationals were killed on the U.S. side of the border -- they did protest, but not with Fox's volume. Previous governments also adamantly opposed publicly acknowledging cooperation with U.S. law enforcement agencies in counternarcotics efforts. Many times, the lack of cooperation was not only rhetorical, but real. That changed with Fox; now there is considerably more U.S-Mexican anti-drug cooperation.

Both Roberto Madrazo from the Mexico's former longtime ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party and his left-wing rival, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador from the Democratic Revolutionary Party, will very likely return to the policy of a reduced level of cooperation with U.S. law-enforcement agencies. This reduction will extend past the rhetorical level if the situation on the border deteriorates -- if Mexicans are shot by U.S. authorities, for example. But at the same time, both are also likely to continue Fox's increased activism on issues affecting Mexicans within the United States. The Mexican community in the U.S. is now active politically in Mexican politics, since they can vote on Mexican elections beginning this July. Thus, expatriate Mexicans in the United States are a constituency worth wooing for political candidates in Mexico.

Unlike his rivals, Felipe Calderon from Fox's National Action Party -- the front-runner in the most recent polls -- would very likely maintain and increase cooperation with the United States if elected. Even so, domestic pressures would force him to adopt stances similar to those of his adversaries if killings of Mexican nationals on the border follow from Bush's proposed National Guard deployment.

Changing the Pre-Election Debate

While the Mexican position will not change markedly regardless of which party wins the July presidential election, the proposals under discussion in the United States -- namely the National Guard presence -- could help change the pre-election debate in Mexico, giving the advantage to the candidate best able to capitalize on the issue. Thus, the three main candidates will toughen their rhetoric against U.S. government border security and immigration policies in the final weeks of the campaign, and so will Fox when he visits next week. Some of the Mexican presidential candidates sought to take advantage of the immigration and border issues in the past week. Thus, Calderon criticized Bush's National Guard proposal, and Lopez Obrador criticized Fox for not being tough enough, though he toned down his comments later. By giving voice to the left wing's historical dislike of the United States, Lopez Obrador could be in position to gain the most from the border and immigration debate.

How much impact the issue will have in the run-up to July 2 remains unclear, though it will certainly become an increasingly important part of the agenda in the months before the change of administrations -- and during the entire length of the next administration. For someone like Lopez Obrador, cutting cooperation with Washington and joining the ranks -- at least in the rhetorical sense -- of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo Morales could be attractive if the United States adopts a hard line on immigration.

While the overall positions of the Mexican government are not going to change, this does not mean no solution to border and immigration issues exists. In fact, much can be done to increase border safety. And if the Mexican economy begins to grow at an accelerated pace, it can create enough jobs to reduce the migration flow -- though this would take several years.

========================

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/23/world/americas/23mexico.html?th&emc=th

TUXTLA GUTI?RREZ, Mexico, May 19 ? Felipe Calder?n loves to make allusions to Mexican folk songs. These days, the conservative candidate for president is particularly fond of recalling a song about a nag named Rel?mpago who upsets a glistening champion, Moro, in a race.

 
Felipe Calder?n, of the National Action Party, speaking to voters last week in Tonal?, Mexico.
"I was not the favorite," he boomed over loudspeakers to a crowd of farmers, fishermen and business owners in the town of Tonal? on a swing in Chiapas on Thursday. "I was not the one who was up in the polls, but do you know what I did, gentlemen? I went to work. I set about telling Mexicans what each candidate really stands for."

After six months in second place, Mr. Calder?n has surged past the front-runner, Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador, with a stream of attack advertisements portraying him as a dangerous and violent leftist who will bankrupt the country.

Now, a month before the vote, the race is a contest between Mr. Calder?n, a free-trade advocate backed by business leaders, and Mr. L?pez Obrador, a leftist who draws most of his support from poor people who feel that free-trade policies have failed to help them.

For his part, Mr. L?pez Obrador, 53, who was mayor of Mexico City until last year, dismisses the recent polls as "propaganda" and claims the numbers have been massaged to undercount working-class voters. Under his stewardship, Mexico City's finances remained solid. As for the charge that he is dangerous, he calls it simply ludicrous.

Mr. Calder?n, 43, a former congressman and energy minister, has engineered the turnaround with a nimble, slick campaign, relying heavily on radio and television advertisements, many of them negative, tested in focus groups and tailored to specific constituencies, his aides say. Mexicans vote July 2.

Mr. Calder?n, of President Vicente Fox's National Action Party, has outspent Mr. L?pez Obrador two to one on attack ads that, among other things, link the left-leaning candidate to Hugo Ch?vez, Venezuela's anti-American president. He has also deftly played on the perception that Mr. L?pez Obrador, of the Party of the Democratic Revolution, has an authoritarian streak and a reputation as a rabble-rouser because of raucous protests against election fraud he led over a decade ago. Mr. Calder?n's ads call his rival "a danger to Mexico."

The personal attacks on Mr. L?pez Obrador were among several strategic shifts by Mr. Calder?n's young campaign team in late March. Mr. Calder?n now embraces President Fox, after first keeping him at arm's length, and staunchly defends the government's record on social programs and the economy.

Mr. Calder?n has also dropped his stuffy stump speech about the virtues of open markets and foreign investment, opting for a simpler message: he now vows to create jobs, jobs and more jobs. His ads call him the "president of employment," and his slogan is "My job will be to make sure you have a job."

One thing that unites the candidates is their opposition to President Bush's plan to build a wall along the border and deploy the National Guard. Both say the way to stop illegal immigration is to create more jobs and investment in Mexico.

Mr. Calder?n has also stolen a page from Mr. L?pez Obrador, who promises a raft of government subsidies and handouts. Mr. Calder?n, a fiscal and social conservative, now makes a point of saying he will extend and expand the welfare and health care programs Mr. Fox put in place. The promise to keep government largesse flowing draws the biggest applause at his rallies.

The upshot has been a remarkable political comeback. In January, five major surveys by respected pollsters showed Mr. Calder?n trailing Mr. L?pez Obrador by 6 to 10 percentage points. In April and May, however, all five polls showed the race tightening with a slim lead for Mr. Calder?n.

"We've managed to change the subject of the election," said Juan Camilo Mouri?o, 34, Mr. Calder?n's campaign manager, as he sat behind his desk in a dark blue suit at campaign headquarters, checking sports scores on a new laptop.

Mr. Mouri?o said the inner circle of the campaign had a fierce debate before deciding to bombard Mr. L?pez Obrador with negative advertisements. An attempt to knock him off the ballot for ignoring a court order failed badly last year, only making him more popular. The conventional wisdom was, the more you attack Mr. L?pez Obrador, the stronger he gets by casting himself as the victim of a conspiracy.

But Mr. Calder?n was trailing by 10 percentage points in late February. His free-trade message and "Passion and Values for Mexico" slogan was falling flat. "We had to make adjustments," Mr. Mouri?o said. One of the architects of the new campaign was Antonio Sol?, 34, a Spanish political consultant who was a top consultant to former Prime Minister Jos? Mar?a Aznar.

Mr. Mouri?o said he also had several informal conversations about the campaign with Dick Morris, the American consultant who once worked for former President Bill Clinton, but the Calder?n team decided not to hire him.


Mr. L?pez Obrador's campaign has been slow to respond. Until recently, the candidate had resisted advice to respond to mudslinging with mudslinging of his own. Only this week did his party broadcast a radio spot calling Mr. Calder?n "a liar."

Besides taking his time to go on the offensive, Mr. L?pez Obrador has made other gaffes, his aides concede. In February, he ridiculed Mr. Fox, called him a chattering bird and told him to "shut up" and stay out of the campaign, handing Mr. Calder?n fodder for his claim that Mr. L?pez Obrador is intolerant.

The leftist's decision in April to pass up the first debate, a classic front-runner's tactic, also backfired. Most analysts say it contributed to the notion that he can be arrogant, and contemptuous of other viewpoints. Mr. L?pez Obrador has also refused to let his aides use his modest lifestyle or his close relationship with his sons to soften his image, some inside the campaign say.

As for the polls, Mr. L?pez Obrador says they are the fabrications of media barons in a conspiracy to defeat him. (His aides maintain that their internal polls show he fell behind early this month, but has regained ground and now leads Mr. Calder?n by six percentage points.)

Mr. L?pez Obrador has stubbornly insisted on running a grass-roots campaign that relies more on speeches in town squares, loudspeakers atop cars and word of mouth than on television and radio spots, his campaign aides say. That decision could turn out to be a stroke of genius or his biggest mistake.

"The strategy will stay the same, because that's Andr?s Manuel's way of campaigning," said Ricardo Monreal, a senior aide. "His way of campaigning is, as always before, street by street, town by town, at the level of the people. He believes he will beat the marketing campaign that way."

Mr. Monreal added: "We all know that marketing has carried a lot of current presidents into office around the world. But L?pez Obrador isn't relying on this. He is relying on the strategy of the street."

Still, Mr. L?pez Obrador has made some adjustments, said C?sar Y??ez, his spokesman and a close adviser. For months, the candidate avoided interviews, unless they were with local radio stations. He has always been obsessive about controlling his message.

In the last two weeks, however, he has submitted to three interviews on national television. He even let himself be lampooned on a morning show by a political satirist who wears a clown outfit.

He has also begun to needle Mr. Calder?n. Last week, he said the conservative candidate was a captive of his campaign advisers.

Mr. Calder?n has kept up the invective. In Chiapas on Thursday, he leapt on Mr. L?pez Obrador's comment that President Fox was "a puppet" of the United States because of his restrained criticism of the United States Senate's support for more walls along the border.

President Ch?vez of Venezuela had used the same word to describe Mr. Fox last fall, and Mr. Calder?n did not let the chance pass to tar Mr. L?pez Obrador again with the Ch?vez brush. "He's an intolerant man, a very aggressive man, a hostile man and he has devoted himself to insulting the president," he said of his rival. Mr. L?pez Obrador, however, has kept his distance from Mr. Ch?vez.

The managers of both campaigns say the race is too close to call. The camps agree that the final debate on June 6, the only face-to-face confrontation between Mr. Calder?n and Mr. L?pez Obrador, will be pivotal.

"The debate will be important, and I say the dirty war has a limit in its impact on the election," Senator Ortega said.

"We have to win the debate," Mr. Mouri?o said.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 29, 2006, 05:50:40 PM
Kaibiles: The New Lethal Force in the Mexican Drug Wars
The investigation into the April beheadings of two Mexican police officers in the Pacific resort city of Acapulco has led to the Kaibiles, Guatemalan special forces deserters who have taken on the role of hired guns for Mexico's Gulf cartel, one of the most powerful drug cartels operating in the country.

Acapulco is fast becoming a battleground for cartels vying for control of drug-trafficking supply routes. The Zetas, the Mexican version of the Kaibiles, already are fighting on the Gulf cartel's side against skinhead gangs hired by the Beltran Leyva brothers, leaders of the rival Sinaloa cartel. With Mexican anti-drug authorities bearing down on the cartel, however, Kaibiles -- as many as 40, according to Mexico's attorney general -- were brought in to assist the Zetas in dealing with that front. With the Kaibiles now in the mix, fighting is likely to increase in the near future.

The Kaibiles, who are particularly brutal fighters trained in unconventional tactics, are infamous for forcing recruits to bite the heads off live chickens during training. In February 1999, the U.N. Commission for Historical Clarification (CEH), a body established after Guatemala's civil war to investigate human rights abuses that occurred during the conflict, harshly criticized the Kaibiles, citing human rights abuses. Kaibil actions during fighting in the 1980s made the group one of the most feared special forces units in Latin America. According to the CEH, for instance, Kaibil units responding to guerrilla attacks near the Guatemalan town of Las Dos Erres in December 1982 entered a village believed to be sympathetic to rebel groups. Although the Kaibiles reportedly found no weapons caches or guerrillas, they proceeded to conduct a two-day purge, killing everyone in the village, including women and children.

As part of a national reconciliation process following Guatemala's civil war, the Guatemalan army has been restructuring and transforming its units, and has since dropped the name "Kaibil" from its special forces units, referring to them only as the Special Forces Brigade. The units have participated in U.N. peacekeeping operations in Africa.

On Sept. 10, 2005, Mexican authorities arrested seven Guatemalan nationals in the southern Chiapas town of Comitan for smuggling weapons into Mexico. Guatemalan authorities later confirmed that at least four of the seven were former Kaibiles who had deserted their special operations unit at different times, the most recent one in 2004. Unlike the Zetas, the majority of whom deserted at the same time, Kaibiles apparently have been deserting in small numbers for several years now.

A former high-ranking Mexican military official, Gen. Ramon Mota Sanchez, said in an October 2005 interview that former Mexican soldiers who deserted to join the Zetas possibly were trained by Kaibiles. Between 1994 and 1999, he said, Kaibiles trained several dozen Mexican special operations soldiers.

After the end of wars in Central America, bands of militants, mercenaries and death squads suddenly found themselves without a war to fight. Like many of these groups, the Kaibiles looked abroad for work as hired guns, some of them entering the Mexican drug scene through contacts with the Zetas. Special forces units in one region often will share training or establish partnerships with neighboring units.

The presence of Kaibiles in Mexico has introduced an additional foreign element into the Mexican drug wars, along with Mara Salvatrucha from El Salvador and Calle 18 gangs from Guatemala. With the well-trained and brutal Kaibiles and Zetas now in the mix, however, Mexico's drug wars are likely to get even uglier. Moreover, it is only a question of time before their level of violence reaches fronts in the drug war on the U.S. border, such as Tijuana and Nuevo Laredo.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 01, 2006, 06:44:58 PM
Mexico: Of Soccer and Electoral Strategy
Summary

Mexico's presidential race has become a very close contest. The latest polls show the conservative National Action Party's candidate Felipe Calderon tied with the Democratic Revolutionary Party's candidate, left-leaning former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador; Institutional Revolutionary Party candidate Roberto Madrazo is not far behind. On June 6, the candidates will meet for their second and last televised debate. Whoever wins that will have a good chance of winning the July 2 election.

Analysis

The final weeks of Mexico's presidential campaign have seen it become a very close race. After several months of leading the competition in virtually every opinion poll, left-wing Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador from the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) lost that position in May to Felipe Calderon from President Vicente Fox's National Action Party (PAN). The latest voter intention surveys indicate that Lopez Obrador and Calderon are tied, with Roberto Madrazo of the formerly long-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) not far behind.

As recently as five weeks ago, Lopez Obrador looked like the certain winner. He held a modest but consistent lead in opinion polls, which gave him the initiative to set the campaign and policy agenda. In an attempt to protect his lead, Lopez Obrador decided not to attend the first televised debate, opting to attack Fox instead. After two false starts, Calderon finally found a way to exploit Lopez Obrador's weaknesses and launched an advertising campaign comparing Lopez Obrador to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The campaign proved to be a success. Meanwhile, Madrazo has been trying to plug the holes that widespread scandals and internal discord have made in the PRI's ship.

The candidates' second and last televised debate, slated for June 6, is the most prominent event before the July 2 election The victor is likely to have a definitive advantage when voters go to the polls. Though the race has become more competitive, no candidate has created much excitement among the voters, and a large portion of the electorate will not even bother to vote. Furthermore, the soccer World Cup -- which will be held in Germany from June 9 through July 9 -- is expected to decrease voter attention even more. The three main candidates' electoral strategy is to try to get into first place before the World Cup begins, and the upcoming debate is likely their biggest chance to win over the undecided voters and consolidate their support bases.

Having lost his position as front-runner, Lopez Obrador also lost the impression of inevitability he was trying to bring to the upcoming debate. He has dismissed every poll that does not give him the advantage, maintaining that his own numbers say otherwise. He said in an ad on national television this week that he is focusing on just one segment of the electorate: those who earn less than $800 a month, to whom he proposed giving cash handouts as soon as he becomes president. The problem is that he would be dispensing those handouts to a great majority of the Mexican population, and he has yet to figure out where the money would come from. Lopez Obrador will continue attacking Fox, Calderon and the PAN's role in the bank bailout after the 1994-1995 financial crisis, which he considered a cover-up to protect rich bankers, even though Fox, Calderon and the PAN were not in power at the time. Also, having lost many of the "independent voters" who once sided with him, Lopez Obrador will appeal directly to voters identified with the PRI and try to win over those in the party's left wing to supplement the support from his own PRD.

Calderon, in turn, has had a tough time generating enthusiasm beyond his party base. Despite being the youngest of the candidates, he represents a brand of social conservatism that has not gone over well with the youngest voters. However, he could persuade many voters leaning toward Lopez Obrador that the PRD candidate poses a grave economic risk. Calderon's message that associates Lopez Obrador with Chavez and highlights his willingness to go on a spending spree once in power has played well in the northern states, where Calderon has consolidated a wide margin. However, he seems to have won over all those who can be convinced by that strategy, and he does not yet have sufficient support to win the election.

Madrazo, who has the highest personal negative ratings from voters, has been unable to run a consistent campaign. His run has been marred by scandals and party infighting -- some of which he is responsible for, and most of which was engineered by his opponents within the PRI. The scandals have put the once-invincible PRI on the verge of falling into third place, a position from which it would be hard to recover. Despite all that, the PRI has shown extraordinary resilience, and Madrazo is hoping that low voter turnout will allow him to take advantage of the party machinery's "get out the vote" strategy. Madrazo is also appealing to the segment of the population targeted by Lopez Obrador, saying he will help but without endangering the country's economic well-being. Madrazo also will relentlessly attack Calderon to undermine his support in the north.

Opinion polls after the debate could give a good indication of which candidate was able to win over the small segment of the electorate that is up for grabs. Economic and public security issues will dominate the debate. The candidates are not likely to pay much attention to the most prominent item on the U.S.-Mexican agenda -- immigration -- during the debate or during the rest of the campaign, unless there are incidents along the border involving the U.S. National Guard that result in the deaths of Mexican nationals. Such an event would directly affect Calderon, who would be identified with Fox's acquiescence to the U.S. National Guard deployment to the border.

This presidential election is the first in which Mexico is allowing absentee voting for Mexicans living abroad. This was a long-standing demand from the Mexican community in the United States, which accounts for an overwhelming majority of Mexicans living outside Mexico. Politicians had stalled on the issue for various reasons, but an eleventh-hour attempt in 2005 finally succeeded in allowing absentee voting. Of an estimated 4 million potential voters outside the country, only about 300,000 registered to vote, and even fewer will actually vote. The reasons for this are varied, but one major reason is that Mexicans living abroad whose status is not legal could be afraid of being identified if they send their votes. The number of registered Mexican voters outside Mexico will increase, and then the Mexican community in the United States will become an active constituency. This is likely to change the dynamics between Mexico City and Washington.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 06, 2006, 09:46:58 AM
MEXICO: Mexican presidential candidates face off in the second and last televised debate before the July 2 election. In Mexico City, unidentified assailants shoot at an armored vehicle carrying the wife and children of Carlos Ahumada, a jailed businessman closely associated with corruption scandals involving an array of politicians from the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution. Ahumada has already released videos with evidence against the politicians. His lawyers announced June 5 they would release four new videos containing evidence against close associates of presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Ahumada's wife and children were not injured.

www.stratfor.com

?Alguien sabe algo al respeto?
Title: Mexico
Post by: omar on June 08, 2006, 03:53:36 PM
Hola a todos, como algunos saben trabajo en el gobierno y la version que circula por los pasillos es que fue un autoatentado... dias antes del debate el Jefe del Gobierno del DF denuncio que estaba siendo extorsionado por gente de C Ahumada, la teoria es que tal chantaje se dio y al no ver reaccion por parte  del gobierno de la ciudad, ni de la gente cercana al candidato del PRD, la espectativa de sacar otro video escandalo empezo a diluirse y para no quedar como tontos prefirieron quedar como victimas... a esa distancia y como operan quienes se dedican a asesinar no hubieran fallado, ademas, porque disparar del lado del chofer, si los supuestos blancos eran la familia de Ahumada?

Omar
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 18, 2006, 07:50:50 AM
?Mas noticias de la eleccion?  Aqui se lee que las encuestas dice que AMLO y Calderon son iguales en apoyo.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 27, 2006, 02:37:39 PM
The Spread of Mexico's Drug Wars
Mexican authorities recovered four beheaded bodies from a vacant lot near the U.S. border in Tijuana the night of June 21, pulling the heads from the nearby Tijuana River. The victims, three local police officials and a civilian, reportedly had been abducted by a convoy of heavily armed men. Three days later, the bodies of four police officers kidnapped the week before were found near the resort city of Acapulco in southern Mexico's Guerrero state. One of the victims had been beheaded. These attacks appear to confirm the escalation -- and spread -- of Mexico's drug wars.

In Nuevo Laredo, Tijuana, and, more recently, Acapulco, rival drug cartels are using heavier and more powerful weapons to carry out increasingly brazen attacks against one other, and any local police officers who get in their way. In Guerrero state, two police posts at the Ixtapa and Zihuatanejo tourist resorts came under simultaneous attack with automatic weapons and grenades June 24.

The attacks against the police posts occurred during a violent weekend in Guerrero state that saw a total of 11 people killed. In addition to the four police officers, the bodies of a businessman and a former police officer were discovered in Acapulco. Four more bodies were found in plastic bags on the outskirts of Acapulco, in Pie de la Cuesta, while another shooting victim was discovered bound and wrapped in a black plastic bag in another nearby town.

Until recently, beheadings had been rare in Mexico, despite the numerous deadly wars between drug cartels going back decades. The change in tactics suggests a new element has entered into the equation, most likely from Central or South America. It also is possible that local enforcers have adopted some of the tactics that have been so effective in Iraq and elsewhere.

Deputy Attorney General for Organized Crime Jose Luis Santiago Vasconcelos said the beheadings in Tijuana were likely carried out by members of the Mara Salvatrucha crime gang working as enforcers for the Sinaloa drug cartel. Vasconcelos himself, however, has been accused repeatedly in the Mexican media of having a direct connection to some of the cartels. It is a fact, though, that while the Maras can be extremely violent, they are not known to behead their victims.

The real culprits, then, could be Kaibiles, former Guatemalan special forces soldiers who have signed on as cartel enforcers. The Mexican media, citing the April beheadings of two police officers in Acapulco, have claimed that Kaibiles have been active in Mexico over the past few months. Some Guerrero state officials have publicly said they believe the Kaibiles to be behind the attacks, while others have requested information from the Guatemalan army about possible former Kaibiles participating with drug-traffickers. A Guatemalan army spokesman said Mexico requested information on three specific individuals, one of whom was positively identified as a former Kaibil.

The Mexican government has tried various tactics throughout the years to stem the violence associated with the cartels -- to no avail. With presidential elections set for July 2, the new administration and its security services will face the same old problems of internal police corruption and outgunned forces -- and likely will be unable to stem the escalating violence in Mexico. The introduction of enforcers from outside the country indicates that, as the stakes rise, the cartels are responding with increasing violence.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 01, 2006, 05:36:45 PM
?Algun comentario sobre los procesos legales en contra de Luis Echeverria Alvarez por los acontecimientos del Masacre de Tlatelolco?

?Quien va a ganar la elecion-- AMLO o Calderon?
Title: Mexico
Post by: Dog Mauricio on July 04, 2006, 02:15:39 PM
Pues parece ser que por las escuestas el que ganar? sera Calderon, pero hay en la ma?ana escuche por televisi?n que los dirigentes del PRD aun se encuentran optimistas y tienen fe en que con los votos que faltan por recabar alcancen para que AMLO tenga el triunfo como presidente pero mucha gente lo duda. Para jefe de gobierno lo mas seguro es que quede Marcelo E. Ma?ana miercoles se definir? todo.

Saludos
Mauricio
Title: Mexico
Post by: Dog Mauricio on July 04, 2006, 02:16:31 PM
Pues parece ser que por las encuestas el que ganar? sera Calderon, pero hay en la ma?ana escuche por televisi?n que los dirigentes del PRD aun se encuentran optimistas y tienen fe en que con los votos que faltan por recabar alcancen para que AMLO tenga el triunfo como presidente pero mucha gente lo duda. Para jefe de gobierno lo mas seguro es que quede Marcelo E. del PRD. Ma?ana miercoles se definir? todo.

Saludos
Mauricio
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 05, 2006, 03:28:12 PM
http://www.eleccionesmexico.com.mx
 
http://www.felipe-calderon.org/fc/html/index.htm
Title: Mexico
Post by: Dog Mauricio on July 06, 2006, 02:08:41 PM
Aun hoy Jueves en la ma?ana hab?a 8 casillas que no contabilizaban sus votos, peroya en la tarde se tienen el 100% de los votos que son:

VOTOS TOTALES:  41,758,191

VOTOS NO REGISTRADOS:  297,960

VOTOS POR CADITATOS A LA PRESIDENCIA DE LA REP?BLICA:

- Felipe Calder?n (PAN)                          35.88%
- Andres Manuel L?pez Obrador (PRD)     35.31%

     Es decir que la diferencia entre los dos candidatos es del 0.57%, peero AMLO no esta conforme y esta pidiendo que se cuente voto por voto para verificar. FC dio las gracias a los otros candidatos que fueron sus contrincantes durante el periodo electoral y tabi?n contesto a AMLO que ese voto a voto ya se realizo el Domingo.

     Aun hay mecanismos para hacer protestar referente a los resultados y posteriomente se daran respuestas.

     De momento es todo.

Saludos Cordiales
Prof. Mauricio S?nchez
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 06, 2006, 05:09:28 PM
Uds. esta'n viviendo un momento histo'rica.  Yo me acuerdo viajando por todo Mexico en mi motocicleta en 1976 viendo los anuncios por Jose Lopez Portillo-- el candidato del PRI , , , y los demas partidos, y ahora el Presidente es del PAN, y en la eleccion el PRI esta' en tercero lugar y hay una democracia verdadera.

Absolutamente increible.

!Gracias por mantenernos al momento!
=================================

Mexico: Facing Its Greatest Democratic Test
Summary

Mexico's July 2 presidential election was the closest in the country's history. Conservative Felipe Calderon got an advantage in the preliminary vote count, which has just been ratified; the official tally gives Calderon a lead of about 0.56 percent over left-wing candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. However, Lopez Obrador has decided not to recognize the results and instead to challenge them officially in the election court. Despite Lopez Obrador's challenge, the country remains calm. Mexico's electoral authorities and the electorate are likely to accept the election results in what could be the ultimate test of Mexico's 20-year-old democratic process.

Analysis

Mexico's presidential election July 2 was the closest in the country's history. Just as opinion polls had predicted before the election, there was a negligible amount of difference between support for National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon and for Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. On July 6, with 99.96 percent of the votes counted, Calderon maintained an advantage of 0.56 percent over Lopez Obrador.

After decades of suspicious electoral processes, one of Mexico's main political transformations during the past 15 years was the decision to build a reliable and independent electoral structure: the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE), an independent body in charge of organizing federal elections in Mexico since 1994. The 1994 and 2000 Mexican presidential elections were regarded as clean, and in 1996 the IFE achieved total autonomy from the government and the Federal Electoral Court (TEPJF) was created just to handle electoral issues. However, since the beginning of this election season, Lopez Obrador has cast doubt on the IFE and refused to commit to recognizing the election results if he lost. Since Calderon's lead appears to be holding, Lopez Obrador announced the morning of July 6 that he and the PRD are challenging the election results and calling for a manual recount of the votes.

Given that Calderon and Lopez Obrador each have more than 14 million votes, either candidate would be able to mobilize supporters if needed -- yet Mexico has remained calm in spite of Lopez Obrador's challenge. Even though Lopez Obrador's contention is not with possible fraud but simply with the vote tabulations, this election could be the greatest test Mexico's democratic institutions have faced.

The legal path is certain, if lengthy: Votes were counted on election day, and the official tally and registration began July 5. IFE is set to announce an official result July 6 (as of this writing, the result has not yet been announced). The results will then be sent to the TEPJF for certification. That is the point at which the political parties can challenge the election in the court. After that, the worst-case scenario is that the TEPJF will take the maximum time allowed by law to certify the results, and the election will not be finalized until Sept. 7. Given the PRD's request for a total recount, it is very probable that Mexico will not have an official president-elect for several weeks, though the process is not likely to drag on to the latest possible date. Even after the court makes its decision, the PRD has not clearly signaled that it will accept the results even if the recount shows that Lopez Obrador lost the election.

This election is a test not only for Mexico's electoral authorities, but also for the political actors' negotiation and conciliation abilities. The results indicate that the country is deeply divided; exit polls show that Calderon got most of the votes among the richest two-fifths of the population and tied with Lopez Obrador among voters in the poorest fifth of the population. In geographic terms, Calderon won 16 states, all but two of which were in the north and western regions of the country. Lopez Obrador also won 16 states, all but two of which were in southern and central Mexico. Despite the closeness of the overall election results, few states were divided; Lopez Obrador won more than 60 percent of the votes in Mexico City, and Calderon did the same in several states like Guanajuato and Jalisco.

Given that around 35 percent of Mexico's voters supported Lopez Obrador, Calderon will need to shore up support from other segments of the population. This is especially important given that the July 2 congressional election left no party with an overall majority in either congressional house, though Calderon's PAN will have the relative majority in both the Senate and the House. Support from the once-powerful Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) could prove critical. Robert Madrazo, PRI's presidential candidate, came in third, just as opinion polls forecast; however, it was a very distant third. The PRI also lost its relative majority in the House and Senate and is relegated to third place in Congress. However, the PRI still has the support of about 25 percent of the population and thus could give Calderon a credibility boost and political support. Madrazo has already recognized his defeat and called the presidential election "fair, legal and legitimate." A negotiation with the PRI could not only help legitimize Calderon's victory, it could also help build a coalition in Congress to pass reforms once Calderon assumes power. However, a revolt to renew the leadership has started inside the PRI; the party's ability to show the electorate a commitment to change will be critical for the PRI's survival.

Calderon will face a tough healing process, though he indicated even before the election that he would seek to create some kind of coalition government. Even if the PRD loses its challenge -- as the results seem to indicate will happen -- it won its largest share of the vote ever and will become the second-largest force in Congress, with more seats than it has previously held.

Calderon will be declared the winner July 6, although the results will still not be official until the TEPJF validates and certifies the election. It will take several more days to resolve any PRD challenges. However, Calderon's victory has now been confirmed by the preliminary and official vote counts. If Lopez Obrador clearly states that he is committed to recognizing the final results, there will not necessarily be a problem if the election's certification is delayed a few days. However, as expected, Lopez Obrador has yet to make a declaration in which he says he will accept the results. He will face increasing pressure from the business sector, media and the population in general to accept the results, especially because he does not seem to have a strong case for overturning the results; if the court accepts a recount, Lopez Obrador will have no case at all. Violence has not erupted over the hotly contested election, and it seems very likely that both the electoral authorities and the populace will pass what could be Mexico's greatest democratic test to date.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 10, 2006, 06:39:48 AM
El prestigioso Wall Street Journal dice que el sistema de elecciones en Mexico es mas honesto que lo del EEUU-- y otro articulo sobre la eleccion.
=====================

JOHN FUND ON THE TRAIL

How to Run a Clean Election
What Mexico can teach the United States.

Monday, July 10, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT

Mexico is likely to weather the controversy over its photo-finish election despite the protestors that losing candidate Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador brought into the streets on Saturday to claim the election had been stolen. Mexico's nonpartisan National Election Commission has built up a decade of credibility in running clean elections and international observers have certified the count as fair. Indeed, in its successful efforts to overcome its old reputation for corrupt vote-counting Mexico has a lot to teach the United States.

Mexico has developed an elaborate system of safeguards to prevent voter fraud. Absentee ballots, which are cast outside the view of election officials and represent the easiest way to commit fraud, are much harder to apply for than in the U.S. Voters must present a valid voter ID card with a photo and imbedded security codes. After they cast a ballot voters--just like those famously pictured in Iraq last year--also have a finger or thumb dipped in indelible purple ink to prevent them from voting again.

In the U.S. opponents of such anti-fraud measures as photo ID laws claim they will disenfranchise many voters and reduce voter turnout. But John Lott, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, notes that in the three presidential elections Mexico has conducted since the National Election Commission reformed the election laws "68% of eligible citizens have voted, compared to only 59% in the three elections prior to the rule changes." People are more likely to vote if they believe their ballot will be fairly counted.





But in the U.S. a growing percentage of people have doubts their votes are recorded properly, whether those doubts stem from concerns about new electronic voting machines or old-style political machines with a reputation for corruption. Residents of cities such as Philadelphia, where there are more registered voters than the number of adults over the age of 18, routinely note that "voting early and often" is a time-honored--and all too real--tradition.
Photo ID laws are considered one of the most basic and necessary election safeguards by a host of countries including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Britain, India and South Africa. But less than half of U.S. states have any kind of photo ID laws. Opponents continue to claim they are discriminatory. Just last week, a federal judge in Georgia blocked that state's new photo ID law from taking effect.

Andrew Young, the former Atlanta mayor and U.N. ambassador, doesn't see what all the fuss over photo ID is about. In an era when people have to show ID to rent a DVD at Blockbuster or cash a check he told me "requiring ID can help poor people." He noted that Georgia is deploying a mobile bus to issue voter IDs and allowing groups like the NAACP to arrange for it to go to specific sites such as nursing homes.

Last year, the bipartisan Commission on Federal Election Reform headed by former President Jimmy Carter and former Secretary of State James Baker proposed a national photo ID requirement. They noted the importance of clean election rolls and the usefulness a photo ID law could provide in ensuring that the person arriving at a polling site is the same one that is named on the registration list. They also proposed that all states use their best efforts to obtain proof of citizenship before registering voters.

During the Senate's May debate on immigration reform, Kentucky GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell noted that with 12 million illegal immigrants in the country it made sense to have a national law to have voters show a photo ID before they vote and have them indicate if someone is a citizen. He proposed an amendment to the immigration bill that would have included a grant to ensure that states could afford to provide a free ID to anyone who needed one. Requiring someone to show a photo ID would cut down on potential fraud and misrepresentation at the polls, especially in states such as Wisconsin where voters can register to vote and cast a ballot on Election Day with no waiting period. "Last I checked, the constitutional right to rent a movie or buy motor oil in bulk was conspicuously absent. However, the constitution is replete, as is the U.S. Code, with protections of the franchise of all Americans," Sen. McConnell told colleagues.

The floor debate over the McConnell proposal was revealing. Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois inexplicably claimed the proposal was a solution without a problem because there was no voter fraud in the country. Coming from a man who represents Chicago, his statement left some colleagues in slack-jawed amazement. Almost as unbelievable were claims by Sen. Ted Kennedy that a photo ID requirement would bring back the equivalent of a poll tax on voters. "How can it be a poll tax, if anyone can get the ID for free?" shot back Mr. McConnell.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll in April found that 80% of Americans favored a photo ID requirement, with only 7% opposed. Nonetheless, every Democratic senator lined up in opposition to the McConnell amendment--a clear sign that key liberal interest groups must feel threatened by the idea of ballot security. Mr. McConnell's amendment survived an attempt to strip it from the immigration bill by a vote of only 49 to 48. Its prospects for becoming law this year are dim.

But it's important that the battle continue. After two bitterly fought and close presidential elections in 2000 and 2004, Americans need to improve both sloppy election laws that may needlessly hinder people from voting and also ensure the results are accepted by all but the most die-hard partisans. That means more oversight and stricter standards for the new electronic voting machines that more and more Americans are using. It should include photo ID laws that are uniform across state lines. It should mean states rethinking rules that in states such as California and Washington state routinely have more than a third of voters casting absentee ballots--thus changing the very meaning of an Election Day in which everyone votes at the same time with the same information.





Make no mistake. Close elections are becoming more common everywhere. In addition to Mexico, this spring Italy had a nail biter election that was decided by less than 22,000 votes nationwide. The Czech Republic is still struggling to break a deadlock from an election last month that left both sides with exactly 100 seats each in parliament. Last year, Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats took two months to acknowledge that Angela Merkel had narrowly won and had the right to become the country's first female Chancellor.
Michael Barone, the co-author of the authoritative Almanac of American Politics, spent a week in Mexico reporting on its election and the safeguards it has taken to ensure an accurate vote. "I have more confidence in Mexico's election procedures than I do in those in much of the United States," he concluded.

Americans should be ashamed that in a much richer country that has a much longer democratic tradition, too many states still have slipshod and defective security protections. In the 1960s, Americans fought a civil rights battle to ensure the right of everyone to vote. But every American also has an equal civil right not to have their ballot canceled out by someone who shouldn't be voting, is voting twice or in some case has long since died.

Mexico is ahead of the U.S. in ensuring its elections are both free and accurate. We should ask ourselves if we can afford to let that stunning contrast continue. Our next painfully close presidential election may be only a little over two years away. The time to act is now.

==============

 
 
 
 
   
     
 
 
 
 
DESKTOP NEWS ALERTS

 
 
Get alerts for breaking news -- such as Fed moves, major world events and big mergers -- delivered straight to your desktop. Alerts will appear in a small window on your screen, much like an instant-messaging window. See a sample and get more information.


advertisement
TODAY'S MOST POPULAR  
 
 
? Lawsuits Fly Over Google Founders' Plane
? 'Pirates' Plunders Box Office
? Before Rushing to Convert an IRA, Read This
? The Great Giveaway
? Saudi Arabia Tests Ability to Unlock Heavy Oil

 
 Personalized Home Page Setup
 Put headlines on your homepage about the companies, industries and topics that interest you most.  
 
 
 
Leftist Is to Press Challenge
Of Mexico's Election

L?pez Obrador Readies
Effort to Reverse Defeat,
Declaring 'This Isn't Over'
By JOHN LYONS and JOS? DE C?RDOBA
July 10, 2006; Page A3

MEXICO CITY -- Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador, the left-wing candidate narrowly defeated in Mexico's presidential race, was expected to launch a legal campaign late last night to overturn the results, mixing allegations of vote fraud with broader claims that the election process was unfair.

The legal challenges were slated to come a day after Mr. L?pez Obrador held a rally in Mexico City, kicking off the first of several protests he hopes will pressure election authorities to accede to his demands. Mr. L?pez Obrador wants to nullify the results from more than a third of the 130,500 polling stations, and is demanding that all 41 million ballots be hand-counted a second time.

 
The 52-year-old former Mexico City mayor lost a July 2 vote by a slim margin -- around 240,000 votes -- to Felipe Calder?n, 43, the candidate of President Vicente Fox's pro-market National Action Party, according to an official hand count conducted by Mexican poll workers and party representatives. Although he initially said the vote was clean, Mr. L?pez Obrador has lashed out at election officials, Mr. Calder?n, President Fox, and big business since the results were announced, claiming they formed a conspiracy to deny him victory.

"I won the presidency," Mr. L?pez Obrador said early yesterday at a news conference. "I am going to defend our victory. This isn't over." The message was partly meant for the stream of heads of state, including Spain's socialist Prime Minister Jos? Luis Rodr?guez Zapatero and President Bush, who have extended congratulations to Mr. Calder?n.

Despite his rhetoric, analysts say the veteran politician faces an uphill battle both to win a court ruling to overturn the election as well as to galvanize Mexicans into taking to the streets to support him. "L?pez Obrador is now in the uncomfortable position of complaining about things that he said were fine at the time," said Federico Reyes-Heroles, a political analyst and writer in Mexico City.

 
Whatever the outcome, the dispute is likely to further polarize a divided nation, making governing more tricky for the next president.

Mr. L?pez Obrador's legal challenges mark the first major test for the nation's special electoral tribunal, set up in the 1990s as the ultimate authority on electoral disputes as part of an effort to stamp out fraud. The court earned a reputation for flexing its muscle in 2000, when it annulled a local election in Mr. L?pez Obrador's home state of Tabasco.

Now, the leftist is asking the electoral court to order a recount. In his legal complaint, due to be delivered to the court late yesterday, he was expected to ask that the results from as many as 50,000 polling stations be thrown out for reasons including vote buying. He also was expected to ask the court to rule that the election was unfairly tilted against him by the meddling of President Fox and the collusion of electoral officials.

Mr. L?pez Obrador's camp argues that Mr. Fox illegally campaigned for Mr. Calder?n through government-sponsored advertisements touting the achievements of his government. Under Mexican law, a president can't endorse or campaign for a candidate. Mr. L?pez Obrador may also argue that the Calder?n camp surpassed spending limits to launch an illegal negative advertising campaign.

FURTHER READING

 
? L?pez Obrador May Lack Support for Vote Protest
07/08/06
 
While the court may agree to review some ballot boxes, most analysts say it won't agree to the blanket recount that Mr. L?pez Obrador wants. Mexico's electoral system requires parties to observe and then sign off on almost every step of the process -- which Mr. L?pez Obrador's Democratic Revolution Party did.

Mr. L?pez Obrador's vow to fill the streets with protestors worries many Mexicans, who fear their young democracy may be in for a period of uncertainty that could push new electoral institutions beyond the breaking point. Mr. L?pez Obrador's tone has become harsh, calling Mr. Fox a "traitor to democracy" during his speech yesterday, and declaring that the "stability of the nation" is at risk unless his demands are met.

Observers say these new attacks on the president may ultimately backfire with middle-class voters who still hold Mr. Fox in high esteem. What's more, observers say Mr. L?pez Obrador's first rally failed to pack the punch he was hoping to deliver, suggesting that his ability to stage massive rallies may dissipate over coming weeks.

Mexico City officials, seen as sympathetic to the former city mayor, said that 280,000 people attended Saturday's rally. News agencies put the number at closer to 100,000. That is about half as much as Mr. L?pez Obrador was hoping to attract -- and many times smaller than the one million supporters police say he gathered in a rally last year. Mr. L?pez Obrador called yesterday for supporters from across the nation to start walking toward Mexico City and attend a second rally in the plaza on July 16.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 11, 2006, 09:23:50 PM
?Noticias de la eleccion?  ?Se mantiene la aventaja de Calderon?
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 14, 2006, 07:45:02 AM
Videos, Doubts, and a Backlash in Mexico Vote
               E-MailPrint Single Page Reprints Save
 
By GINGER THOMPSON and JAMES C. McKINLEY Jr.
Published: July 14, 2006
MEXICO CITY, July 13 ? To an untrained eye, the scenes captured on video certainly looked like Mexico?s bad old days when votes were stolen instead of won. There was a man inside a polling station stuffing one vote after another into a ballot box.

Skip to next paragraph
Enlarge this Image
 
Agence France-Presse ? Getty Images
Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador, the presidential candidate, playing a video that he says shows a poll worker stuffing a ballot box. But election officials, and a member of his own campaign, reject that characterization.

Related
In a Presidential Tone, Calder?n Rejects Recount (July 14, 2006) Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador, the embattled leftist candidate for president, showed the video to a crowd of reporters on Monday morning and called it proof that poll workers had taken part in a conspiracy of fraud that robbed him of victory and handed it to his conservative rival, Felipe Calder?n.

That night, the Federal Electoral Institute, or IFE, and Mr. L?pez Obrador?s own representative at the polling station said Mr. L?pez Obrador was misrepresenting the video. The tape, they said, showed a poll worker putting misplaced ballots where they belonged, a common procedure that was perfectly legal.

By then, however, doubt had already been planted. Mr. L?pez Obrador has bet his political future that it will not take much to make that doubt grow into a national call for a recount in a country where rigging elections was once a kind of national pastime. His opponents in Mr. Calder?n?s camp are betting people will see things the way they do: that the only one playing dirty these days is Mr. L?pez Obrador.

In an interview on Thursday, Mr. Calder?n, who election officials say squeaked out a victory by 0.6 percent of the vote, said that Mr. L?pez Obrador had not kept his promise during the campaign to accept the election results, win or lose.

?It seems to me that the responsible thing to do is to respect the authorities,? said Mr. Calder?n, who has yet to be formally certified as the winner, ?and not to heighten tensions in the political atmosphere.?

?I don?t want to launch a personal attack on him,? Mr. Calder?n added. ?What I do think is that Mexico has a solid democratic system, credible institutions, like the electoral institute and the electoral tribunal, and that it?s not right that they be discredited, especially without proof.?

In the 11 days since the closest election in Mexican history, Mr. L?pez Obrador has tried to discredit those institutions and the election on two fronts. Last weekend he filed a massive complaint ? including nine boxes of documents and tapes ? to the Federal Electoral Tribunal, alleging irregularities at more 52,000 polling places and calling for a recount.

At the same time, he opened a campaign to cast doubt on the election, feeding the media daily doses of scandal in videotapes and what he describes as secret recordings and tally sheets with incorrect numbers.

On Saturday in the Z?calo, Mexico City?s historic plaza, a confident Mr. L?pez Obrador regaled some 150,000 supporters with a recording of a conversation that he said proved collusion by rival political parties.

He followed up at the press conference on Monday with the now disputed video that he said proved poll workers had inflated vote counts for his rival. He screened another video on Tuesday that he said showed electoral officials illegally tampering with ballot boxes. And on Wednesday, he played a video that he said showed poll workers recording more inflated tallies for Mr. Calder?n.

While the tapes were tantalizing, legal experts said they hardly made Mr. L?pez Obrador?s case for systematic violations that would support his demand for a vote-by-vote recount, and many analysts were concluding that the campaign was more smoke than fire.

The Federal Electoral Institute has fired back with a campaign of its own, including public service announcements and full-page advertisements in Mexico?s major daily newspapers. In a recent press conference, Hugo Concha, a spokesman for IFE, said there was no evidence of fraud in any of the videos.

Nor, he said, were they recorded in secret. Cameras were allowed in district offices during the official vote tallying, Mr. Concha said. And he said the videos screened by Mr. L?pez Obrador showed normal, legal activities.

?In other words,? Mr. Concha said, ?he is misusing the information.?

That seems to be the way Juliana Barr?n Vallejo sees things. She is a former factory worker in Guanajuato State who represented Mr. L?pez Obrador?s campaign at the polling place where the video shown on Monday had been recorded.

?There was no fraud,? she said in a telephone interview. ?Everything was clean.? Then, referring to Mr. L?pez Obrador, she said, ?I think he is angry because he lost, and so he is inventing things.?

Comments like those from Ms. Barr?n, which have also been reported here in the newspaper Reforma, stung the L?pez Obrador campaign. But Mr. L?pez Obrador?s response shook his supporters? confidence even further, as he refused to back away from the video and implied that his own campaign worker had been corrupted.


In a Presidential Tone, Calder?n Rejects Recount (July 14, 2006) ?I cannot say that all my representatives acted honestly,? Mr. L?pez Obrador said at a press conference on Tuesday. ?There is a lot of money out there. Unfortunately, some people are willing to sell their dignity.?

As for the Federal Electoral Institute, Mr. L?pez Obrador said: ?The IFE is trying to cover up an embarrassment that is making news around the world. What we are showing is that in this election we have not moved forward. We have moved backward.?

Some, including the leftist scholar Roger Bartra, say that Mr. L?pez Obrador has not only damaged himself, but that he has also set Mexico on a dangerous course.

Other political analysts, like Jorge Monta?o, say Mr. L?pez Obrador has capitalized on the overwhelming lack of confidence most Mexicans feel toward their institutions, and has shifted the debate from one about who won the election, to one about whether to reopen the ballots.

?Public confidence has fallen so low,? Mr. Monta?o said, ?that it is almost inevitable there will have to be some kind of verification that Felipe Calder?n won the presidency.?

Mr. L?pez Obrador?s appearances at press conferences and on television this week indicated that he was prepared for a long fight. That became clear in a heated exchange between Mr. L?pez Obrador, the populist former Mexico City mayor, and Mexico?s leading news anchor, Joaqu?n L?pez-D?riga, Tuesday night:

Mr. L?pez-D?riga: Where is this going to end, Andr?s Manuel? How far are you going to take it?

Mr. L?pez Obrador: To the people.

Mr. L?pez-D?riga: How far is that?

Mr. L?pez Obrador: As far as the people want and decide.

Mr. L?pez-D?riga: But you are driving this process.

Mr. L?pez Obrador: Yes, but we are going to drive it democratically.

Mr. Calder?n?s aides contend that what Mr. L?pez Obrador really wants is to use a recount as the first step to annulling the election. Echoing analyses by electoral officials, they say it is unlikely that a recount would change the results because the candidates would be likely to gain and lose votes in similar proportions.

But any broad recount, Mr. Calder?n?s aides say, is bound to uncover human errors, and perhaps isolated, but not systematic, cases of fraud, that could be used to throw out all the returns. ?The tactic might be a recount, but the endgame is annulment,? said Arturo Sarukh?n, an aide to Mr. Calder?n.

Mr. L?pez Obrador, 53, has repeatedly denied he wants a new election. He won this one, he said, adding, ?I am more and more convinced of this.?

For his part, Mr. Calder?n has stood firm, planning a tour of the country, sending aides to calm anxieties abroad, appointing officials to lead a transition team and playing down the demonstrations in favor of Mr. L?pez Obrador.

?Elections are won at the polls,? Mr. Calder?n said, ?not on the streets.?
Title: Mexico
Post by: omar on July 14, 2006, 04:27:53 PM
Hola a todos, mucha efervecencia en Mexico por lo de las elecciones, la Jornada (un periodico de Mexico), en este viernes presentaba varios articulos que ni por equivocacion veran en los noticiros de television:

Continua la apertura ilegal de paquetes electorales por los empleados del IFE, para igualar cifras del PREP

Posible el fraude cibernetico, declaran cientificos de la UNAM

Sugieren academicos de la UNAM al tribunal electora conteo con maquinas y personal distinto

Es bueno aclarar que cuando Marc mensiona su viaje por mexico durante las eleciones de Portillo el sistema tenia impunidad absoluta  dentro y fuera del pais, en ese entonces estabamos en la etapa de farsa electoral, pues se hacia todo el proceso electoral, pero no se respetaba el resultado (dudo que siquiera se contara), las urnas ya llegaban llenas  o  votaba varias veces un grupo de personas. Cuando se crea el IFE como organo "independiente" del gobierno (en mi opinion no se puede ser independiente si se recibe un presupuesto del gobierno), comenso la etapa de fraude elctoral, en esta epoca si los informes de la votacion eran contrarios al PRI se disparaba contra la casilla y las personas que esperaban  su turno para votar, o se robaban las urnas o como sucedio en 1988 se cae el sistema de computo y curiosamente ya no puede volverse a contar pues los paquetes electorales fueron quemados. La eleccion del 2000 fue una muestra de que al ser los esultados favorables para los intereses del sistema el mismo presidente saltandose al tribunal electoral anuncia el triunfo "absoluto de Fox"

La pasada eleccion fue ejemplar, pues las personas independientemente de sus preferencias realmente salieron a votar, los funcionarios de casilla actuaron honestamente y los paquetes se entregaron sin falta a las oficinas del IFE; sin embargo el computo, la captura, es lo fraudulento, se mensiona que al ingresar los datos de AMLO la base de datos resta 4 votos por casilla, hagan el ejercicio de restar los votos por el numero de casilla y tendran el triunfo de Calderon.

Despues comentamos mas

Omar
Title: Mexico
Post by: omar on July 17, 2006, 04:52:49 PM
Hola de nuevo  :) , mas informacion sobre el estado de las elecciones en Mexico, este es un articulo del periodista Julio Hernandez, del diario la Jornada, cada dia se habla mas del fraude cibernetico, a ver que comentamos:

Pruebas matem?ticas
- El mundo hildebr?ndico
- Manipulaciones cibern?ticas
- An?malos, el PREP y lo distrital
Astillero
Julio Hern?ndez L?pez
A?n cuando son muchos los testimonios del fraude electoral en su fase manual (premoderna), la clave del gran enga?o est? en la manipulaci?n cibern?tica de los procesos de captaci?n y difusi?n de los datos comiciales. Por m?s evidencias de manipulaciones que se logren juntar (y vaya que hay suficientes) y por m?s litigios ante tribunales electorales que se lleguen a plantear, la esencia del atraco est? en el mundo de lo hildebr?ndico: en el sistema computacional que posibilit? la instalaci?n del reino de las percepciones que ha hecho creer a las masas manipulables medi?tica y ?cient?ficamente? que Felipe Calder?n realmente gan? la contienda electoral./
La diferencia entre lo manual y lo computacional, entre lo real y lo virtual, parece no ser entendida adecuadamente por el lopezobradorismo. Tal vez porque varios de sus principales estrategas nutrieron sus conocimientos electorales de la fuente del priismo cl?sico es que ahora se ha puesto el acento de las denuncias p?blicas m?s en los aspectos tradicionales de la defraudaci?n (el embarazo de urnas, las diferencias num?ricas en actas, por ejemplo) que en los estudios de cient?ficos mexicanos que consideran imposibles, o inviables, o incre?bles matem?ticamente tanto los resultados electorales preliminares y de los conteos distritales como su expresi?n ante los medios de comunicaci?n y los ciudadanos en general./

La noche del pasado mi?rcoles, por ejemplo, esta columna recibi?, en horario que le hac?a imposible incluirlo en la entrega de ese d?a, el an?lisis estad?stico que de las elecciones 2006 hicieron diez acad?micos de la UNAM (los doctores V?ctor Romero, Ra?l Aguilar, Humberto Carrillo, Susana G?mez, Rosario Paredes, Luis Rinc?n y Francisco Portillo, y los maestros Pilar Alonso, Jos? Antonio Flores y Bol?var Huerta). Las observaciones de esa decena de especialistas (que hoy se publican en La Jornada, en una nota de Roberto Gardu?o, y est?n disponibles ?ntegramente en www.juliohernandez.com.mx) establecen que ?se present? una manipulaci?n en el c?mputo de los votos tanto del PREP como del conteo distrital, v?a la alteraci?n de los resultados o la administraci?n de las muestras de casillas tomadas que supuestamente deb?an ser aleatorias. S?lo mediante una manipulaci?n cibern?tica en el ?rea inform?tica del IFE dichos comportamientos anormales e improbables pudieron suceder?. La diferencia oficial de votos entre Calder?n y AMLO fue de ?s?lo dos votos por casilla?, pero ?una manipulaci?n de 30 votos en el 10 % de las casillas permitir?a revertir ese resultado?. Sin embargo (de lo manual a lo cibern?tico, de lo real a lo virtual), ?de igual manera, la manipulaci?n de las cifras en las computadoras del IFE pudo cambiar el resultado final de la votaci?n?. Por ello, los acad?micos de la UNAM recomiendan que se realice ?un nuevo conteo en todas las casillas electorales, usando un sistema de c?mputo distinto al que ha usado el IFE?./
Uno de esos diez acad?micos, V?ctor Romero Roch?n, ha dicho a t?tulo personal que ?las conclusiones respecto al conteo distrital son esencialmente las mismas que en el caso del PREP? y que ?lo que provoca mayor sorpresa es el orden, ascendente o descendente, del n?mero de votos conforme se contabilizan nuevas casillas, siendo que las muestras son independientes unas de las otras (...) un orden de esta naturaleza no puede descartarse en t?rminos estad?sticos, aunque si as? fuera tendr?a una probabilidad incre?blemente peque?a?. De all? se desprende ?la posibilidad final, que no puede ni debe descartarse a la ligera, de la intervenci?n de un agente externo al sistema de c?mputo del IFE?, por lo que un eventual nuevo conteo de votos tendr?a como ?condici?n necesaria? evitar que ?la informaci?n se vuelva a centralizar en las mismas computadoras? del IFE./
El an?lisis colectivo fue conocido en lo general por el propio L?pez Obrador una semana atr?s (el pasado viernes, cuando se preparaba para una entrevista en Televisa con Joaqu?n L?pez D?riga que ese d?a fue pospuesta). Los acad?micos trabajaron s?bado y domingo hasta la madrugada para alcanzar las consideraciones finales y buscaron hacerlas llegar a AMLO por la v?a de Federico Arreola, C?sar Y??ez u Octavio Romero, pero nada consiguieron. Claudia Sheinbaum s? conoci? el texto pero nada sucedi? porque la burocracia alrededor de L?pez Obrador sigue empe?ada en una batalla jur?dico-electoral al estilo antiguo./
No son, los de esos diez acad?micos, los ?nicos estudios sobre la materia. Ya aqu? se han difundido los trabajos de Jaime Ruiz Garc?a y Luis Moch?n. ?ste, en la versi?n m?s actualizada, establece en sus conclusiones que, con lo que ha analizado hasta ahora ?no es razonable creer que no haya habido una manipulaci?n de los resultados reportados por el PREP; se me ha dicho que el trabajo que he realizado es irrelevante pues a fin de cuentas el PREP no tiene validez legal, pues los datos importantes son los del conteo distrital. Sin embargo, me resisto a creer que el PREP haya puesto a nuestra disposici?n toda la informaci?n detallada de la elecci?n con el prop?sito de que nos entretengamos la noche de la elecci?n o que juguemos a las quinielas?./
La batalla c?vica por la defensa del voto debe pasar, desde luego, por el ?mbito jur?dico y por la movilizaci?n social, pero tambi?n debe apoyarse en estos an?lisis matem?ticos (difundiendo esos estudios, convirti?ndolos en argumento pol?tico y social, inaugurando rutas de litigio judicial a partir de consideraciones cient?ficas). De otra manera, el combate se quedar? en un campo acaso ya reorganizado con las mismas trampas cibern?ticas y manuales, como lo sugiere el manoseo de paquetes electorales que ha realizado el IFE en sedes distritales y que podr?a permitir al calderonismo el golpe efectista de anunciar su disposici?n a que sean contados uno a uno los votos de determinadas casillas en las que el tr?o Felipe-Hildebrando-IFE (FelHiFE) no hubiese aplicado (o ya hubiese disimulado) sus artes de magia./
Hoy, a partir de las once horas, en la Escuela Nacional de Antropolog?a (a un lado de la sala Ollin Yoliztli) este tecleador en una mesa redonda con Guillermo Almeyra, H?ctor D?az Polanco y Consuelo S?nchez. El pr?ximo viernes, en la Universidad de Guadalajara... ?Feliz fin de semana y... nos vemos el domingo, en la marcha! (fin)
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 17, 2006, 07:28:10 PM
Gracias Omar, muy interesante.

He aqui la interpretacion de hoy del Stratfor:
------------

Mexico: Lopez Obrador's Risky Hard Line
Summary

Left-wing candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) candidate who lost Mexico's July 2 presidential election, continued his increasingly radical path in a July 16 speech, calling for "civil resistance" unless he gets a complete recount of votes. He also said he would refuse to recognize conservative National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon's win, even if the recount confirms the PAN candidate's victory. Though Lopez Obrador's intransigence does risk polarizing PRD and PAN supporters, continuing to contest the election will cost Lopez Obrador support, and he could find himself with depleted political capital.

Analysis

Left-wing candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who lost Mexico's July 2 presidential election to conservative candidate Felipe Calderon, called on his followers to mount a "civil resistance" movement if his petition for a recount of all votes cast in the election fails. Now Mexico's Federal Election Court (TEPJF) will decide whether such a recount will be held.

Lopez Obrador's statements have created a Catch-22. On one hand, he has demanded a full recount. On the other, he has said he will not recognize Calderon's win, even if the recount confirms Calderon's 0.58 percent victory. True, the left-wing candidate has also said he wants the civil resistance movement to be peaceful, and that he will call it off if there is a full recount. But given Lopez Obrador's statement that he will not accept a Calderon win, he will probably seek to continue his massive rallies, and some of his supporters might also stage road closings. This intransigence gives rise to a potentially dangerous radicalization and polarization of supporters on both sides. Ultimately, however, Lopez Obrador could find himself with depleted political capital.

Mexico's Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) presented the election results July 6, handing the victory to National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon. That outcome matched the preliminary results IFE released on election day, which were based on quick counts and exit polls. Shortly after the election, Lopez Obrador demanded a complete recount. While politically a recount makes sense, Mexican law says only TEPJF can determine whether to hold one.

Lopez Obrador's representatives wanted PAN to agree to a recount with or without TEPJF's permission. But doing so without TEPJF's authorization would create legal grounds for invalidating the entire election. PAN and Calderon wisely refused to make such a deal, arguing that it was not their decision. Lopez Obrador has sought to spin that as proof Calderon has something to fear from a recount.

The TEPJF sessions to hear and revise political parties' complaints about the July 2 presidential and congressional elections began July 14. Once the TEPJF reviews those complaints and rules on them, it will announce the official election results and declare the winning candidate president-elect. Essentially, Lopez Obrador has said that either he should be declared winner or the election should be declared invalid. In court, the PRD has asked the TEPJF to conduct a recount in only about 55,000 of the more than 130,000 Mexican precincts. However, on the street the party has demanded a recount of all votes in all precincts.

Even if the TEPJF acceded to all of the PRD's requests, it would still fall short of Lopez Obrador's insistence on a complete recount. And while the TEPJF has the legal authority to order the full recount, it is unlikely to do so if no political party has petitioned for such a move. Yet another inconsistency in Lopez Obrador's push for a recount is the PRD's failure to follow the proper legal procedures in asking for one. This hamstrung Lopez Obrador's recount petition before it was even submitted. Lopez Obrador has justified his demands by saying the electoral process was unjust, the results were not transparent and the election was rigged. Despite these claims, no party filed any complaints of irregularities anywhere in Mexico on election day, and even international election observers dubbed the election fair. Moreover, Lopez Obrador did not object to unfairness in Mexico's concurrent legislative elections, in which the PRD made a strong showing.

These inconsistencies have begun to produce a negative backlash against Lopez Obrador in the media and the already hostile business sector. And while Lopez Obrador may have managed to fill the Zocalo -- Mexico City's main plaza -- with backers, the hardening of his position has come at the expense of support from the wider population -- and perhaps at the expense of his political future. Some polls have shown that between 60 percent and 65 percent of the population wants Lopez Obrador to accept the IFE results and trust the electoral authorities. And while Lopez Obrador still has the backing of the majority of the 35 percent of Mexicans who voted for him, many are starting to have second thoughts. Still, he can create his civil resistance movement if only a small fraction of his initial supporters continue to follow him.

The TEPJF has until the end of August to verify all the evidence and until Sept. 6 to declare a president-elect. The length of the process will spawn uncertainty and allow Lopez Obrador to continue mobilizing his hardcore supporters. The sooner TEPJF certifies the election, the better.

Until then, Lopez Obrador will continue to press his case in the public arena. After the ruling, he will need to decide whether to accept the result or continue with his threats of a resistance movement. That moment will test the real strength of his support. In the meantime, Calderon will need to engage in heavy political bridge-building, especially with the once dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which came in third in this election but still has the support of about one-quarter of the electorate. More likely than not, the PRI will give its support to Calderon. But he will also need to reach out to elements inside the PRD who are not fond of Lopez Obrador, such as Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, who ran as the PRD candidate in the last three presidential elections.

Since Lopez Obrador will probably not change his position, political isolation would be the best way to deal with him. His movement will be loud and designed to gain maximum visibility, but he will lose support rapidly, and he could find himself isolated. And if he continues on this radical path, Lopez Obrador could even become a liability for many inside the PRD, which enjoyed its strongest performance ever in the legislative elections.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 19, 2006, 05:55:44 PM
Mexico's Long Hot Political Summer
Summary

Felipe Calderon, the apparent winner of Mexico's presidential election, was heckled by angry protesters in downtown Mexico City on July 18. Polarizing public opinion is one of the objectives of defeated presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's call for "civil resistance" unless the Federal Election Court awards him the election. While Lopez Obrador cannot actually close down the government, since his party controls less than one-third of the newly elected Congress, he can attempt other tactics like closing down oil facilities and blocking roads. He has engaged in such activities before and would not hesitate in doing it again.

Analysis

The apparent winner of Mexico's July 2 presidential election, Felipe Calderon, was heckled July 18 by about a dozen angry protesters in downtown Mexico City. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who was defeated in the presidential election, had on July 16 called for a "civil resistance" movement to protest the election results in which he lost by 0.58 percent. Polarization of public opinion is one of Lopez Obrador's objectives.

Lopez Obrador maintains that he won the election, yet he has discounted the entire process, calling it unfair and undemocratic. His legal complaints to Mexico's Federal Election Court (TEPJF) simultaneously seek a recount and the invalidation of the election. Since a full recount probably could not give him enough votes to overcome Calderon, Lopez Obrador will use demonstrations and other actions to try to press the TEPFJ to call a new election. He likely will use some of the tactics he has used in the past, such as closing oil facilities, as part of his "civil resistance" movement.

This is not the first time Lopez Obrador has used "civil resistance" to try to overturn an election. In 1994, Lopez Obrador ran for the governorship of his home state, Tabasco, and lost to Roberto Madrazo -- who was the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate in the July 2 presidential election. Madrazo had spent far beyond the allowed limits in the 1994 campaign, and Lopez Obrador used the occasion to claim fraud and start a "civil resistance" movement. He led groups of supporters to block the entry to several oil rigs and other Pemex facilities in Tabasco for several months. He also staged demonstrations and caravans to Mexico City. Lopez Obrador did not succeed in reversing the election, but he gained enough visibility to position himself as the next national chairman of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) and then as mayor of Mexico City. Now, Lopez Obrador is almost at the political peak; there is nothing beyond the presidency, so he does not have much to lose.

This time, Lopez Obrador has said his movement is peaceful and does not aim to affect Mexico's citizens; he has created citizens' committees, resembling those of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, which will dictate the spread and scope of the movement. Thus, he would have deniability in case his supporters turn violent -- which is not out of the question. When he first issued the call for "civil resistance," Lopez Obrador asked Calderon to accept a full recount for "the well being of you, your family and your loved ones." The next day, one of Lopez Obrador's lieutenants, former Mexico City mayor and PRI defector Manuel Camacho Solis, warned that "all these people who are now smiling will raise their fists" if Lopez Obrador is not granted victory. The day after that, Calderon was heckled in Mexico City. Lopez Obrador said he did not condemn the heckling but did condemn the "electoral fraud."

Lopez Obrador could be planning to repeat his 1994 performance and close oil facilities, an act that would directly affect the government. The citizens' committees could also plan standard roadblocks and demonstrations as well as symbolic boycotts of businesses and media. Although highly visible and disruptive, demonstrations and blockades are not as problematic as some alternatives. Taking over oil facilities and using rhetoric to incite incidents like the heckling in Mexico City are more dangerous. Disrupting oil facilities would have a visible economic effect, and the use of violent language can easily spin out of control.

There are possible signs of growing disagreement inside Lopez Obrador's party about the route to follow and the intensity of the resistance. After Lopez Obrador's initial outburst, the PRD released a milder statement in the evening. On the morning of July 19, Mexico City Mayor Alejandro Encinas, another prominent member of the PRD, explicitly condemned the aggression against Calderon.

Lopez Obrador has chosen a course on which he either will be declared winner or will try to prevent Calderon from assuming power. Since there are others inside the PRD who might attempt a run for the presidency in six years, Lopez Obrador might feel that this is his only chance. However, by further radicalizing his position, Lopez Obrador has started to lose popularity and erode his political capital. The most likely outcome is that he will find himself isolated. The PRI has expressed its support to the TEPJF and the election authorities and wants the election results to stand. And while Calderon might not have much to offer Lopez Obrador personally, he has a lot to offer the PRD, which had its strongest performance ever in the July 2 congressional elections. If the PRD is thinking of the future, it might find that Lopez Obrador's actions are detrimental to its interests.

Lopez Obrador's movement is likely to fizzle, but it will take time and there will still be several "civil resistance" acts. It will still be a long and hot summer for Mexico.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 22, 2006, 03:34:20 AM
Mexico: Acapulco as a Main Front in the Drug Wars
July 21, 2006 17 31  GMT



Gunmen killed former Mexican legislator Juan Jose Nogueda on July 19 after abducting him from Acapulco's main beachside street in broad daylight. The killing marks the latest incident of violence in the escalating drug war in Mexico's Pacific resort city. The war is making the popular resort destination increasingly dangerous as it continues to spread to other parts of the country.

Nogueda, a businessman in the construction industry and former federal deputy for the Institutional Revolutionary Party, was snatched in plain view of tourists by several gunmen driving a sport utility vehicle. A few hours later, he was found slumped against a wall under some palm trees along the Cerrada de Cumbres road leading to the famous La Quebrada high-diving cliffs. He had been shot three times in the chest and groin -- a gesture meant to send a signal about what happens to people who cross the cartels.

The Sinaloa cartel is fighting a turf war against the Gulf cartel for control of Acapulco, and both sides are using enforcers from inside and outside of Mexico. According to Mexican media reports, Nogueda's killing is believed to have been carried out by members of the Mara Salvatrucha gang, or the Kaibiles from Guatemala. The Maras reportedly are used as enforcers by the Sinaloa cartel, while the Kaibiles are on the Gulf cartel's payroll. The Gulf cartel also is known to use the muscle of Los Zetas, a group of former Mexican airborne troops.

Violence involving rival drug cartels has been increasing around Acapulco for several months, but has escalated dramatically over the past two weeks. On July 10, the chief of security for the Acapulco city government, Eusebio Palacios Ortiz, was grabbed by unknown gunmen while he drove with his wife and daughter on Miguel Aleman Coastal Avenue, the main tourist area. Hours later, another man, Oswaldo Moreno, was shot four times within yards of City Hall after exiting his car and trying to flee his attackers on foot. Two days later, two of Acapulco Mayor Felix Salgado's security guards were brutally beaten, suffocated and left in a car.

In Mexico's climate of political corruption, police officers, officials, businesspeople and politicians have increasing links to organized crime, while the drug cartels are heavily entrenched in many of Mexico's local and state governments. Nogueda could have been targeted because of dealings with a rival cartel either through his business or former political connections. The police and security officers might have been attacked either because they obstructed the cartels' efforts to establish themselves in the area, or because they were working with a rival cartel.

This kind of violence has not been limited to Acapulco. A few weeks ago, in an operation similar to the one that occurred in the border city of Nuevo Laredo in June 2005, almost the entire municipal police force of Apatzingan in the western state of Michoacan was interrogated on suspicion of collaborating with the cartels following a July 12 sting operation. Of the 220 officers interrogated, 27 were arraigned on charges, while another 40 never returned to work.

The violence associated with Mexico's drug wars is spreading to Acapulco and other areas not previously involved in the conflict. On July 17, the governor of the state of Tabasco requested that the Mexican army be deployed there in response to armed attacks against police, purportedly by Los Zetas. In response, the army established patrols in the cities of Cardenas, Cunduacan and the state capital, Villahermosa.

The attacks in once-peaceful Acapulco are occurring closer to tourist areas, while the gangs are growing increasingly brazen in their actions -- as the daylight attacks and targeting of police officials indicate. It seems only a matter of time before a tourist is caught in the crossfire, or perhaps even directly attacked as a result of the increasingly violent drug wars.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 31, 2006, 07:12:15 AM
MEXICO CITY, July 30 ? Four weeks after a very close election plunged this country into political crisis, the leftist candidate escalated his campaign to undo the official results, telling a mass rally of his supporters on Sunday that they must engage in civil disobedience to ?defend democracy? and force the recognition of ?my triumph as president.?

?Mexico does not deserve to be governed by an illegitimate president,? said the candidate, Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador, a former Mexico City mayor who election officials say lost the national election by a mere 243,000 votes of 41 million cast.

A special electoral court has yet to ratify the results and Mr. L?pez Obrador has challenged the official tally, contending that there were widespread irregularities, human errors and, in some instances, fraud. He and his supporters want all the ballots counted again.

Felipe Calder?n, a conservative candidate who officials say received the most votes, contends that recounting all the votes is unnecessary and illegal. Poll workers, chosen at random like jurors and trained for the job, counted the ballots the night of the election in the presence of party officials and signed formal tally sheets.

While Mr. L?pez Obrador led a third huge march down Reforma Avenue to the Z?calo, Mexico City?s central square, on Sunday, Mr. Calder?n appeared before the Federal Electoral Tribunal to counter the leftist?s arguments that the vote count was flawed. ?We won cleanly,? he told reporters after an audience with judges. ?And we are not going to let these millions of votes be canceled.?

Mr. Calder?n also said Mr. L?pez Obrador could not win in court with sit-ins and other acts of civil disobedience. ?We believe in the force of the law,? he said.

The tribunal has until Sept. 6 to resolve the legal challenges and declare the president-elect. Mr. L?pez Obrador said he would not accept anything less than a full recount and promised to wage a campaign of civil disobedience until he got one.

The city police, whose commanders have political ties to Mr. L?pez Obrador, estimated that about 1.2 million people attended the march, making it one of the largest in the country?s history.

The estimate could not be confirmed by other means, but the central square, which holds about 100,000 people, was packed, a sea of people wearing the bright yellow of Mr. L?pez Obrador?s Party of the Democratic Revolution. The crowd spilled into nearby streets, filling major avenues for a half-mile in every direction.

The multitude ? farmers and working-class people bused from rural towns, as well as left-leaning urban professionals ? thundered the chant, ?Vote by vote, polling place by polling place,? as Mr. L?pez Obrador took the stage.

In interviews, protesters said Mr. L?pez Obrador had convinced them that the National Action Party, the party of President Vicente Fox and Mr. Calder?n, and its allies among business leaders had rigged the election.

?If there was no fraud, they would agree to a vote by vote recount,? said Gregorio Ruiz, a 33-year-old farmer from the southern state of Guerrero, who had a mouthful of silver-rimmed teeth.

Brenda Fern?ndez, a 33-year-old homemaker, said as she marched past the Palacio de Bellas Artes that she expected the court to deny Mr. L?pez Obrador?s request and that violence would erupt afterward. ?Look, there was already one revolution, why not another?? she said. ?We are at the point of violence, and the government better understand that.?

Mr. L?pez Obrador called for 32 sit-ins across the city, another step in his campaign to ratchet up pressure on the court to order a recount and on his opponent to accept it. So far, the protests and marches he has led have been peaceful, though he said Sunday that more acts of civil disobedience would be planned.

His court case rests largely on arithmetic errors he maintains he found in about 72,000 polling places. In some cases the number of votes exceeded the number of ballots delivered, he maintains. In others, ballots were delivered and never accounted for in the totals. In others, there were more votes than people registered.

But he also charges that poll workers manipulated the count to pad Mr. Calder?n?s advantage in polling places where Mr. L?pez Obrador had no representatives.

Election officials say most of the arithmetic problems can be explained by human error on election night, as poll workers reported numbers to election officials. The official tally three days later cleared up most of those mistakes, officials say.

Fraud is also highly unlikely, they say. One would have to bribe four polling officials, all chosen at random from lists of registered voters, to falsify results at a polling place.

Still, most of Mr. L?pez Obrador?s followers say not much has changed since the 1980?s, when the government controlled and manipulated the vote count to make sure members of the Institutional Revolutionary Party remained in power. That party ruled Mexico with only token opposition until Mr. Fox?s historic victory in 2000, after the Federal Election Institute became independent.

Indeed, many marchers said they believed the National Action Party had teamed up with the former governing party to commit fraud and give Mr. Calder?n a razor-thin advantage in northern states. Many said they saw both parties as stooges of big business and the United States.

For his part, Mr. L?pez Obrador, 52, has said his campaign for a recount is not an attempt to seize power, but a selfless drive to save Mexico?s fledgling democracy from what he sees as impure influences, like Mr. Fox?s use of his bully pulpit to help his party?s candidate and attack advertisements against Mr. L?pez Obrador paid for by business groups.

?I want to stress the cause we are defending is fundamental,? he said. ?I want to tell you that it goes beyond the fact that they should recognize my triumph as president of the republic.?

Then he added: ?I am not a vulgar opportunist. Money does not motivate me nor interest me. Power only makes sense when it is put at the service of others.?

Antonio Betancourt contributed reporting for this article.
Title: Mexico
Post by: Dog Mauricio on July 31, 2006, 08:51:20 AM
Hola Guro Marc y todos

     Pues por ac? la situaci?n esta tremenda, ayer me encontraba en el centro de la ciudad de M?xico y la verdad es un caos, ya que por las marchas de AMLO las calles estan cerradas, interrumpen el las v?as p?blicas y el transito vehicular esta terrible, adem?s de que llegan muchos camiones de provincia con gente que apoya las marchas y los estacionan cruzados en plena calle y por todos lados estorbando; haaa, y algo que me molesta mucho es que toda esa gente deja todo un basurero por todo el centro hist?rico, es el colmo por lo menos que no sean cerdos.

     El d?a de hoy la gente cerro avenida Reforma, que como sabemos es una calle super transitable que la gente ocupa para llegar a sus trabajos. El se?or AMLO pidio a la gente que se queden en campamentos d?a y noche hasta que se les de una soluci?n respecto al recuento de los votos para la presidencia del pa?s.

Saludos
Mauricio
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 02, 2006, 02:05:34 PM
?Se va a mantener la paz/orden social?
Title: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 03, 2006, 03:21:52 PM
Global Market Brief: Ripple Effects of Mexico's Contested Election
August 03, 2006 20 51  GMT



Supporters of Manuel Lopez Obrador, who is still contesting his failed bid in the July 2 Mexican presidential elections, surrounded the Mexican stock exchange in Mexico City for several hours Aug. 3, blocking workers from entering but having little effect on actual trading on the floor. The demonstrators, many of whom have been camped out along Zocalo Square and Reforma Boulevard during the week, have threatened to return again Aug. 4, and continue demonstrating and disrupting traffic in Mexico City until there is a total recount of the extremely close election.

As we noted in our June 29 Global Market Brief, the Mexican elections would have left congress divided no matter who won, which would then lead to difficulties in passing economic policies. The electoral margin between victor Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party (PAN) and second-place finisher Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) was razor thin -- just 0.56 percent, or 244,000 votes. Lopez Obrador has strongly contested the election, declaring himself the victim of massive fraud, and has vowed to stir public protests until there is a total recount or he is declared president.

Lopez Obrador's supporters have thus far remained relatively peaceful in their actions, though they are causing traffic disruptions in the capital. The second-place finisher has other options available, however, if he cannot achieve his goals through sit-ins in Mexico City. Two short-term risks are foremost. First, Lopez Obrador has created "citizens' committees" within his support base. This allows for more localized and self-directed action by his supporters, which would give the movement opportunities to expand and alter its characteristics throughout Mexico (or at least in those areas where Lopez Obrador has the most support). But the devolution of authority to the local committees also creates a situation where local groups, independently or with tacit central support, shift from the current non-violent actions to a more aggressive approach. The buffer of the citizen committee structure then insulates Lopez Obrador from direct responsibility should violence break out.

The second possibility is that Lopez Obrador takes his protests to a more economically significant target -- Mexico's oil fields. In 1994, after losing in gubernatorial elections in Tabasco state to Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate Roberto Madrazo (who coincidentally ran against Lopez Obrador and Calderon in the July presidential election), Lopez Obrador claimed fraud and launched a civil resistance movement in protest. He led caravans to Mexico City to protest, but more significantly he led supporters to block access to several oil rigs and other Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) facilities in Tabasco. The blockades lasted several months before Lopez Obrador finally relented.

Oil exports and related taxes account for some 40 percent of federal revenues in Mexico, and should Lopez Obrador shift tack and repeat his earlier course of action, there could be a more substantive impact on Mexico than traffic jams in Mexico City.

Such action would also resonate beyond Mexico. Even if the blockage of a few Mexican oil rigs would not substantively affect Mexico's overall oil output, it would certainly add to the psychological pressures on international oil prices. Oil is currently better than $75 a barrel, and while not at record highs, nor yet seriously affecting the U.S. economy, a crisis in the oil fields of the fifth-largest oil producer and ninth-largest exporter would add another premium on an already premium-heavy oil market.

But Mexico also faces a longer-term problem with its oil industry, one that was part of the election battle. Amid debates over Mexico's future economic policies, one of the trickiest is the question of energy. While Lopez Obrador's PRD remains strongly opposed to any change in the national nature of the oil industry, both PAN and PRI have presented options to open the oil sector slowly to private investments, potentially even foreign investment. Calderon has offered specific proposals to allow mixed partnerships in offshore oil and gas exploration and other ventures, for example.

Mexico's oil infrastructure, while not nearly as run down as Venezuela's, is in need of vitalization. While the Mexican economy has diversified during the past two decades, the government remains highly dependent upon oil exports for state revenues. As such, little of the money Pemex collects from exports is reinvested into Pemex. This practice weakens the company's ability to explore new oil fields, exploit existing resources or process and refine crude. There is a serious lack of investments, and it is showing in the declining proven reserves. Calderon has proposed opening up the system for complementary private investment while keeping Pemex under state control, but he will have a hard time convincing a divided congress to make the change. The new government's first priority will likely revolve around tax reform, leaving energy reform for later.

And given the divisions in the Mexican congress, the privatization of Mexico's oil industry -- even if on a limited scale -- will be a very contentious and difficult issue. With the PRD making a strong showing in the congressional elections, and PAN and PRI traditional competitors, Calderon is unlikely to try for a quick change in regulations surrounding private investment in Mexico's oil industry. And this delay will only continue the slow erosion of Mexico's position among oil producers.
Title: Mexico
Post by: omar on August 11, 2006, 03:09:24 PM
Hola a todos:

Pues a mi tambien me sorprendio la medida que se decidio, durante la asamblea masiva un dia antes yo vote en contra de la medida, pero la mayoria coreo la propuesta con un rotundo si. Aun el lunes no estaba convensido, pienso que lo ultimo que conviene es darle armas a los medios para que manipulen la informacion y la descontextualicen, pero como detienes a toda esa gente que ve como unica opcion esas medidas para ser tomada en cuenta?, el propio Monsivaes que una semana antes elogiaba la estrategia de resistencia civil, censuro duramente a AMLO, pero el martes otro intelectual le recordo que es mas desastroso la imposiscion de un presidente ilegitimo a un bloqueo (aun de esas dimensiones), otro intelectual (mas bien analista politico), Ramon Pieza Rugarcia menciono cosas muy importantes:

-El jodido, el que piensa distinto, el indigena, el campesino, el comunista, el pauperrimo, ?que medio real tiene de expresion?- ... -el IFE es acosado con plantones de "cuello blanco" por la COPARMEX, las televisoras, el clero, la derecha, etc, ?porque nadie se escandaliza por ello?, sera porque los simpatizantes de AMLO se instalaron en la esquina del barrio "nice" llevando la desigualdad social a sus propios balcones y los otros llaman con su telefono satelital desde un BMW o un rascacielos de cristal?-... -?que tiene que ver el bloqueo de una calle con la democracia?-... -la violencia se inicia se desarrolla y se desencadena desde un hecho inicial, porque ningun intelectual se escandalizo por el inedito e ilegal desafuero a un gobernante electo?, o porque ninguno paro la campa?a del miedo y la intervencion del presidente de la republica durante la campa?a electoral?-

Gandhi mismo fue desacreditado en su tiempo y hoy es el ejemplo de lo que tiene que hacer un politico bajo "medios pacificos", pero Gandhi no solo hizo huelgas de hambre, lo mas importante es que busco atacar economicamente al imperio britanico, paralizo con su tantica la venta de la industria salinera y la industria textil; en ese tiempo no solo era campa?a del miedo sino ballonetas y fusiles sobre personas desarmadas.

En cuanto a la paz social, si se rompe (espero que el IFE, el PAN y TRIFE, sean sensibles), no va a ser de parte de AMLO, pues La Jornada ha publicado dos articulos donde alerta sobre la movilizacion de soldados vestidos de campesinos y "chavos banda", alginas fotos muestran como esperan en los alrededores de la lagunilla varios veiculos militares y en ellos estas personas evidentemente militares pero con ropa de calle. Esto me atemoriza en particular pues es la misma tactica que utilizaron los Halcones en el 71.

Cierro con unas lineas de la Jornada:

La zona esta acordonada con mecates de pl?stico que la gente llama lazos y estos delimitan una cuadra de extensi?n que el s?bado al amanecer fue agredida furiosamente por un joven panista, Manuel Cosio Ramos, de 27 a?os, que en un acto de locura envisti? con su camioneta de lujo una decena de tiendas de campa?a, lastimando a varias personas antes de ser detenido por los elementos de una patrulla, a quienes dijo que era ?ayudante? de Manuel Espino, el presidente nacional del PAN.

Ahora en homenaje al muchacho, quien llevaba las placas de su veh?culo en la guantera ?lo que habla de premeditaci?n, alevos?a y mucho, mucho odio de clase de su parte-, una cartulina advierte ante las sillas de pl?stico partidas en cachitos: ?estos son los destrozos de un pacifico panista que trato de matarnos?[/
i]

La jornada, lunes 7 de agosto

Omar
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 11, 2006, 06:30:09 PM
Omar:


1)  Casi lo entendi, pero al final de cuentas no entendi nada :-)  ?Un resumen por favor?

2)  He aqui las palabras de AMLO en ingles como aparecieron en el NY Times:

CD
===============


Recounting Our Way to Democracy
               E-MailPrint Save
 
By ANDR?S MANUEL L?PEZ OBRADOR
Published: August 11, 2006
Mexico City

NOT since 1910, when another controversial election sparked a revolution, has Mexico been so fraught with political tension.

The largest demonstrations in our history are daily proof that millions of Mexicans want a full accounting of last month?s presidential election. My opponent, Felipe Calder?n, currently holds a razor-thin lead of 243,000 votes out of 41 million cast, but Mexicans are still waiting for a president to be declared.

Unfortunately, the electoral tribunal responsible for ratifying the election results thwarted the wishes of many Mexicans and refused to approve a nationwide recount. Instead, their narrow ruling last Saturday allows for ballot boxes in only about 9 percent of polling places to be opened and reviewed.

This is simply insufficient for a national election where the margin was less than one percentage point ? and where the tribunal itself acknowledged evidence of arithmetic mistakes and fraud, noting that there were errors at nearly 12,000 polling stations in 26 states.

It?s worth reviewing the history of this election. For months, voters were subjected to a campaign of fear. President Vicente Fox, who backed Mr. Calder?n, told Mexicans to change the rider, but not the horse ? a clear rebuke to the social policies to help the poor and disenfranchised that were at the heart of my campaign. Business groups spent millions of dollars in television and radio advertising that warned of an economic crisis were I to win.

It?s my contention that government programs were directed toward key states in the hope of garnering votes for Mr. Calder?n. The United Nations Development Program went so far as to warn that such actions could improperly influence voters. Where support for my coalition was strong, applicants for government assistance were reportedly required to surrender their voter registration cards, thereby leaving them disenfranchised.

And then came the election. Final pre-election polls showed my coalition in the lead or tied with Mr. Calder?n?s National Action Party. I believe that on election day there was direct manipulation of votes and tally sheets. Irregularities were apparent in tens of thousands of tally sheets. Without a crystal-clear recount, Mexico will have a president who lacks the moral authority to govern.

Public opinion backs this diagnosis. Polls show that at least a third of Mexican voters believe the election was fraudulent and nearly half support a full recount.

And yet the electoral tribunal has ordered an inexplicably restrictive recount. This defies comprehension, for if tally sheet alterations were widespread, the outcome could change with a handful of votes per station.

Our tribunals ? unlike those in the United States ? have been traditionally subordinated to political power. Mexico has a history of corrupt elections where the will of the people has been subverted by the wealthy and powerful. Grievances have now accumulated in the national consciousness, and this time we are not walking away from the problem. The citizens gathered with me in peaceful protest in the Z?calo, the capital?s grand central plaza, speak loudly and clearly: Enough is enough.

In the spirit of Gandhi and the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., we seek to make our voices heard. We lack millions for advertising to make our case. We can only communicate our demand to count all the votes by peaceful protest.

After all, our aim is to strengthen, not damage, Mexico?s institutions, to force them to adopt greater transparency. Mexico?s credibility in the world will only increase if we clarify the results of this election.

We need the goodwill and support of those in the international community with a personal, philosophical or commercial interest in Mexico to encourage it to do the right thing and allow a full recount that will show, once and for all, that democracy is alive and well in this republic.

Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador, the mayor of Mexico City from 2001 to 2005, was a candidate for president in 2006, representing a coalition led by his Party of the Democratic Revolution. This article was translated from the Spanish by Rogelio Ram?rez de la O.


Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: arpulpo on August 14, 2006, 05:00:46 PM
Que tal Foro:

Es la primera vez que escribo en este foro por lo que me presento antes que nada:

Mi nombre es Arturo Garc?a y soy alumno del profesor Muaricio Sanchez de Sistemas Integrados de Combate. Tengo aprox. un a?o y cachito de estar practicando el sistema ( y en general artes marciales) por lo que no me siento todavia listo para aportar en ese t?pico pero si en la parte de politica sobre M?xico.

Bueno, pues alla vamos:

Primero que nada es muy grato para mi saber que Marc se interesa tanto en nuestro pais. Espero que mis aportaciones te sean de utilidad.

El dia de ayer terminando el entrenamiento surgio un peque?o debate con el Super-Javier acerca de la situaci?n pos-electoral en el pais. Fue muy interesante oir su opini?n, ya que tenia tiempo de no encontrar a alguien que estuviera con la propuesta de Madrazo-PRI. El debate se ha polarizado tanto entre el PRD-PAN (la izquierda y la derecha) que es raro cuando alguien tiene una tercera ?propuesta? (perdon Javier por los signos de interrogacion pero si a  algun ex-candidato conozco bien es a el, porque trabaje en su campa?a interna del 2000).

Yo soy militante de izquierda desde mi etapa de licenciatura (estudie ingenieria en la UNAM), por lo que deduciran cual es mi posici?n ahora,  que es la de apoyo total a AMLO.

No soy una persona que se haya convencido en la campa?a electoral de el o piense que es la opci?n "menos peor". Estoy convencido de sus propuestas, estoy convencido de su proyecto de naci?n y creo que es el politico mas congruente que ha surgido en nuestro pais en las ultimas decadas.

Mucha gente se ha acercado conmigo para preguntarme si apoyo los plantones que desde hace unas semanas afectan a la capital...y creo que se han quedado mudos con mi respuesta...Si, si los apoyo. Y ahi comienza el debate.

Mi justificaci?n se las enviare en mi pr?xima participaci?n ya que debo de trabajar un poco.

Saludos a todos.

Arturo.

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Dog Mauricio on August 15, 2006, 11:18:49 AM

     Gracias por tus comentarios Arturo, espero un buen debate de este tema. Que bueno que hay en el foro alguien que no teme expresar su opini?n, espero tambi?n lo hagas en la cuasti?n de las Artes Marciales, no importa el tiempo que lleves entrenando. Espero tambi?n los comentarios de Javier.

Saludos cordiales y nos vemos en el entrenamiento.

Prof. Mauricio S?nchez
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 15, 2006, 06:06:19 PM
Guau Arturo:

Esperamos tus justificaciones  :-)

CD
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 16, 2006, 07:00:01 AM
1119 GMT -- MEXICO -- Mexico's apparent President-elect Felipe Calderon will be placed "under siege" and unable to operate outside his office if he is declared the winner of the election, a spokesman for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's Democratic Revolutionary Party said Aug. 16. Official election results are due Sept. 6.

Lo que tengo entendido (corrigame si me equivoco por favor) es que AMLO se ha producido muy poca evidencia; que y "complete recount" seria fuera de la ley; y que la Comision Elector si' esta' cumpliendo sus deberes segun la ley.

Por lo cual, AMLO me esta' paraciendo un hombre a quien le importa mas su ambicion que el bienestar de Mexico y su democracia.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: xxxaviergs on August 16, 2006, 02:16:35 PM
Hola a todos, quisiera expresar algunos comentarios y reflexiones, mas que establecer una postura respecto a los resultados electorales y la pol?tica actual en el pais, pues a mi en lo personal no me convenc?an de inicio ni el proyecto PRD ni el proyecto PAN.

Marc, coincido contigo respecto a que el Se?or Andres Manuel Busca la presidencia m?s por un fin de ambici?n personal, que por los "nobles fines" que proclama.

En el intento de plant?n que llevaron a cabo los perredistas, los Diputados y Senadores del PRD se comportaron como unos porros y v?ndalos (quiz? por su extracci?n porril) mas que como lo que son funcionarios p?blicos. En esta ocasi?n, al igual que en el resto de los actos de descontento con el resultado electoral, provocan a la autoridad al transgredirla, incluso sus propias directrices (como el vando informativo 13 del a?o 2000), y al obtener la l?gica respuesta de la autoridad, lloran, y se quejan de que no son respetados como lo que son??? y presentan cargos por haber sido reprimidos, mientras que AMLO dice que no van a caer en provocaciones por parte del gobierno federal, ?Qui?n provoca a qui?n?

Me parece que el "noble acto" de las Dadivas del herario p?blico que se dan a los adultos mayores, a las madres trabajadoras y los programas de ?tilies escoolares (condicionado por cierto, a presentarse en las manifestaciones del PRD, y a formar parte de las redes de apoyo ciudadano) son mas un paliativo que una soluci?n de fondo, pues prefiero tener un trabajo que me de opci?n a una vida digna que recibir el trato de un vil acarreado.

Que el se?or AMLO Dijo desde que se enter? del resultado preliminar de las votaci?n que ten?a pruebas de un supuesto fraude (del cual no me consta que hubo o no tal), para declarar posteriormente en una entrevista para la cadena Univisi?n, que en los primeros dias posteriores s?lo era una sospecha infundada, pero que para el momento de dicha entrevista, ya ten?a todas las pruebas del fraude electoral.

Con situaciones como estas, ?C?mo creer que quiere gobernar para el bien de los mexicanos y no del beneficio propio?

Mas reflexiones y hechos del PRD y las propias del PAN en otro post, hay que trabajar.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: arpulpo on August 17, 2006, 12:36:23 PM
Que tal Foro:

He leido algunos de los mensajes al foro de Omar muy interesantes y bien documentados, por lo que voy a tratar unicamente de dar mi perspectiva del problema sin calificar de si esta bien o mal. Ahi va:

Si analizamos la situaci?n actual sin tomar en cuenta el contexto o la historia "democratica" de nuestro pais y tomarlo como un hecho aislado de un hombre y sus seguidores, creo que nos formaremos una opinion erronea de la situaci?n, por lo que les pido un poco de paciencia para analizar lo siguiente:
- Yo soy militante de izquierda desde mis a?os en la Universidad. Tome parte semi-activa en la promocion del voto para la opci?n de Cuauhtemoc Cardenas en la elecci?n de 1988. En aquel movimiento, se lograron juntar un universo de organizaciones y opiniones para "derrocar" de forma democratica a la "dictadura perfecta" (Mario Vargas Lllosa dixit) que ejercio el PRI por mas de 70 a?os. En esa epoca se llevo a cabo el fraude mas descomunal en la historia moderna de Mexico.
- En ese tiempo, toda la opinion publica se volco contra el fraude. Estaba en boca de todos. Y muchos estabamos listos en aquel entonces para defender el voto. Y no solo por el hecho de cambiar de partido en el gobierno. Sino porque ya era hora de un cambio real en la situaci?n de nuestro pais: marginaci?n, pobreza extrema, corrupcion a niveles grotescos, y un largo etc........
- En esos tiempos muy, muy tensos ocurrio el "accidente" del candidato del PAN (Manuel J. Clouthier) en una carretera y en una situaci?n muy, muy oscura.
- Para no "desestabilizar mas al  pais" Cuauhtemoc Cardenas decide no elevar mas la protesta y abdica. No es necesario que les describa la desilusion que causo en muchos de nosotros.

- Pasaron 18 laaaargos a?os para que una persona pudiera nuevamente tomar un liderazgo de todas esas propuestas y necesidades de muchos mexicanos marginados. Muchos se preguntan, que tiene ese tabasque?o que se traga las "s" que atrae tanto a las "masas"?? que atrae al "pueblo"?? que no quiere  negociar con las cupulas empresariales su llegada al poder? que se niega a las privatizaciones? y una larga lista de preguntas...

- Con mal o buen gobierno, con programas "populistas" o no (todas las propuestas, obras de gobierno, programas sociales los comentare en mi siguiente correo para tambien comentar un poco sobre el correo de Javier) comenzo a convencer a muchisima gente de diversas capas de la socieda en su propuesta y comenzo a hacerse de muchos seguidores.

-Y ahi fuen cuando COMENZO REALMENTE EL PROBLEMA. El gobierno panista del peor presidente que hemos tenido en la historia moderna de Mexico se dio cuenta de esta situaci?n y que estaban en riesgo muchisimos intereses (que tambien comentare en otro correo) si este "populista" llegaba al poder. Y comenzo con su campa?a ILEGAL para sacarlo de la contienda presidencial. Se de buena fuente (trabaje en la PGR) que el gobierno busco y rebsuco algo que pudira sacarlo de la contienda con algun argumento leguleyo. Y encontro el argumento mas estupido: no parar la obras por un mandato judicial extra?o  en la construccion de una carretera para acceder a un hospital (privado, si, pero al fin hospital).

- Busco un argumento legal para quitarle el fuero constitucional y poderlo llevar a juicio o abrirle proceso penal y asi dejarlo fuera de la carrera presidencial. Mas de un millon de personas marchamos para impedir esto. El presidente, sabiendose acorralado busco un chivo expiatorio (el director de la PGR) y echo todo para atras.

- La sociedad se dio cuenta en ese momento que el gobierno iba a hacer hasta lo imposible para que Lopez Obrador no llegara a la presidencia. Por lo que opto por llevar a cabo una campa?a mediatica negra para desprestigiar a AMLO y crear un ambiente de miedo contra ?l (algo parecido a la estrategia de Bush en EU con la campa?a terrorista). Algunas empresas incurrieron en DELITOS ELECTORALES al financiar spots en contra de AMLO. Esto esta PROHIBIDO por la legislaci?n mexicana. Fox en sus discursos no dejo de apoyar a su candidato (tambien prohibido por la ley), algo que el, a?os atras, habia combatido ferozmente contra Zedillo. Como todo en este sexenio, un doble discurso.

-Llegando el dia de la eleccion, hay una serie de irregularidades (que tambien puedo comentar en otro correo si gustan, para no alargar mas este). Muchos nos damos cuenta que efectivamente, el gobierno de Fox habia cumplido su promesa de no permitir que AMLO llegara a la presidencia. Pero nunca conto con lo que siguio.

- Marchamos mas de un millon y medio de personas (la mas grande manifestacion que haya habido en la hsitoria moderna de Mexico) para que se limpiera la eleccion. Que se contaran nuevamente los votos. Habia algun pecado o faltas en la ley en ello?? no se si otras personas que lean esto estuvieron en esa marcha. Yo si. Y reafirmo is convicciones. Me armo de paciencia y valor porque ahi nos dimos cuenta que la lucha iba a ser larga y apenas comenzaba.

-Y que paso?? el gobierno minimizo la marcha. Cifras oficiales decian que habiamos asistido cerca de 300 mil personas. Falso. Soy ingeniero de profesion. Se algo de numeros. Los medios minimizaron las propuestas y la cantidad de personas, asi como el tama?o de la protesta, que ahora ya llaman "insurreccion" y comenzo una campa?a  de linchamiento y desprestigio en contra de AMLO. Pero lo que no calcularon, lo que no se dieron cuenta es que no estaban desprestigiando a un hombre. Estaban desprestigiando a millones de mexicanos que lo apoyamos y que nos sentimos vendidos y robados. Que nos defraudaron nuevamente.

- Cual era el siguiente paso si no eramos escuchados?? si nos minimizaban...si decian que eramos unos cuantos "porros" (Javier dixit)??...se llego a la accion de bloquear Reforma.

Por eso mis amigos...apoyo el planton. No estoy de acuerdo tal vez en la forma pero, que seguia??...y ahora muchos dicen "es que habia otras formas"...puedo preguntar cuales?? seguir marchando??...quedarnos en la via legal??...cual legalidad??...renglones arriba menciono quien violo la ley primero en completa impunidad.

Ufff...creo que ya me colgue demasiado en este correo. Seguire en el proximo.

Saludos y muchs gracias por perimitirme expresar en este foro.

Un saludo.


Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 17, 2006, 12:43:16 PM

MEXICO: Mexico's highest electoral court rejected complaints about the July congressional elections, which gave conservative candidate Felipe Calderon's party, the ruling National Action Party (PAN), the largest stake in the legislature. PAN will have 52 seats in the senate and the rival Institutional Revolutionary Party will have 33 seats. Defeated presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's Democratic Revolutionary Party will have 28 seats.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 22, 2006, 04:09:13 PM
Texas Sheriffs Say Texas Sheriffs Say Terrorists Entering US from Mexico
By Kevin Mooney
CNSNews.com Staff Writer
August 21, 2006

(CNSNews.com) - The chief law enforcement officers of several Texas counties along the southern U.S. border warn that Arabic-speaking individuals are learning Spanish and integrating into Mexican culture before paying smugglers to sneak them into the United States. The Texas Sheriffs' Border Coalition believes those individuals are likely terrorists and that drug cartels and some members of the Mexican military are helping them get across the border.

Sheriff Sigifredo Gonzalez of Zapata County, Texas told Cybercast News Service that Iranian currency, military badges in Arabic, jackets and other clothing are among the items that have been discovered along the banks of the Rio Grande River. The sheriff also said there are a substantial number of individuals crossing the southern border into the U.S. who are not Mexican. He described the individuals in question as well-funded and able to pay so-called "coyotes" - human smugglers - large sums of money for help gaining illegal entry into the U.S.

Although many of the non-Mexican illegal aliens are fluent in Spanish, Gonzalez said they speak with an accent that is not native.

"It's clear these people are coming in for reasons other than employment," Gonzalez said.

That sentiment is shared by Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.).

"For years, Muslims and other 'Special Interest Aliens' from places other than Mexico have been streaming into the U.S. across our porous border," Tancredo told Cybercast News Service. "These people are not paying $50,000 or more a head just to 'take jobs no American will do.'

"Terrorists are working round the clock to infiltrate the United States," he added. "Congress and this administration must address this gaping hole in our national security and they must do it now."

Some of the more high profile pieces of evidence pointing to terrorist infiltration of the U.S. have been uncovered in Jim Hogg County, Texas, which experiences a high volume of smuggling activity, according to local law enforcement.

"We see patches on jackets from countries where we know al Qaeda to be active," Gonzalez explained.

The patches appear to be military badges with Arabic lettering. One patch in particular, discovered this past December, caught the attention of federal homeland security officials, according to Gonzalez and local officials familiar with the investigation.



Sheriff Wayne Jernigan of Valverde County, Texas, told members of the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee in March about one patch that read "midnight mission" and displayed an airplane flying over a building heading towards a tower. Translators with DHS have said some of the various phrases and slogans on the items could mean "martyr," "way to eternal life," or "way to immortality."

Gonzalez told the House International Relations Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation in July that the terrorists are getting smarter.

"To avoid apprehension, we feel many of these terrorists attempt to blend in with persons of Hispanic origin when entering the country." Gonzalez stated. "We feel that terrorists are already here and continue to enter our country on a daily basis."


Sheriff Arvin West of Hudspeth County, Texas, told Cybercast News Service that he believes some Mexican soldiers are operating in concert with the drug cartels to aid the terrorists.

"There's no doubt in my mind," he said, "although the Mexican government and our government adamantly deny it."

Statistics made available through the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) show more than 40,000 illegal aliens from countries "Other Than Mexico," designated as OTMs, were apprehended by the U.S. Border Patrol in the period ranging from October 2003 to June 2004, as they attempted to cross the southwestern border. An overview of border security challenges produced through the office of Texas Gov. Rick Perry indicates that almost 120,000 OTMs were apprehended while attempting to cross into the state from January through July 2005.

Local authorities are particularly concerned about illegal aliens arriving from Special Interest Countries (SICs) where a radical version of Islam is known to flourish. Perry's office cites Iraq, Iran, Indonesia and Bangladesh among those countries. A Tancredo spokesperson said the list also includes Afghanistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and Yemen.

As Cybercast News Service previously reported an internal audit of DHS that combines the number of illegal aliens arriving from SICs with the documented instances of illegal aliens arriving from countries identified as being state sponsors of terrorism (SSTs) yields a grand total of over 90,000 such illegal aliens who have been apprehended during the five year period from fiscal year 2001 to fiscal year 2005.

The border security report delivered by Perry's office focuses attention on the "Triborder region" of Latin America, which spans an area between Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay.

"The Triborder Region is a focal point of Islamic extremism," the report states. "Al Qaeda leadership plans to use criminal alien smuggling organizations to bring terrorist operatives across the border into the U.S."

Carlos Espinosa, a press spokesman for Tancredo, said his office is aware of a training camp in Brazil that actually teaches people from outside of Latin America how they can assimilate into the Mexican culture.

"They come up as illegal aliens and disguise themselves as potential migrant workers," Espinosa said.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on August 22, 2006, 04:48:52 PM
Hola a todos, primeramente el resumen para Marc:

en general lo que expreso es un sistem?tico ataque en contra de AMLO, sobre todo de las televisoras y el radio, pasan todos los ?destrosos?, los ?retrasos? y ?perdidas? a causa del ?ilegal bloqueo?, pero no dicen una palabra de la serie de irregularidades que est?n siendo expuestas con el conteo parcial los unicos medios imparciales son el ?peri?dico la Jornada y el semanario Proceso. Comento lo de Gandhi para dar un par?metro real de lo que es una resistencia civil pacifica, la cual no significa la ausencia de ?da?os a terceros?, sino que es una protesta donde se evidencia la terquedad, despotismo e insensibilidad del poder ante demandas justas. Por ?ltimo dejo clara la imposibilidad de presi?n o expresi?n del individuo com?n, aquel que no tiene dinero, ni amigos poderosos ni dinero para pagar spots en los medios oficiales. Ademas la cuestion de la violencia, los medios siempre pasan "la pelicula reeditada", es como si vieramos la pelicula de Bruce Lee Chinesse Conetion en la escena cuando Chen "ataca violentamente" a los indefensos japoneses que aseaban el Dojo, sin tener previamente el contexto de la accion de Chen, si cualquiera de los LopezDoriga-Alatorres-Latapis (is the same tingh), nos comentaran la pelicula dijeran -con lujo de violencia un joven chino ataco despiadadamente a 5 trabajadores japoneses indefensos-, abviamente las personas pacificas y de buena voluntad dirian -ese chino es un salvaje, esta loco, deberian encerrarlo, o mejor aun fusilarlo-; es lo mismo en TODA protesta donde se ataque aunque sea infimamente los intereses de los poderosos, van a descalificar la legitimidad de una protesta y a cuestionar los mediso de DEFENSA, del que no tiene otra forma de ser tomado en cuenta. Resumiendo hay dos formas de violencia, la causa y la efecto, los plantones, huelgas, marchas,etc, son ACCIONES DE DEFENSA, no de ataque.

En segundo lugar una noticia alarmante:

La Brigada ?2 de julio

El 31 de julio el presidente Fox encabezo en el campo militar numero uno el abanderamiento de la unidad de infanter?a ligera Brigada 2 de julio, con una capacidad de casi mil 700 hombres dedicados a conflictos de baja intensidad (CBI), esto es, disturbios sociales, principalmente en el valle de M?xico.

De acuerdo con los dos funcionarios consultados, parte de esta unidad es la que esta siendo disfrazada como si se tratara de elementos de la PFP.

A finales del a?o pasado, la SEDENA solicito 3 mil 300 millones de pesos para impulsar 70 acciones, una de las cuales consist?a en equipar una brigada de la polic?a militar ?en funciones de seguridad p?blica?.

A diferencia de otras unidades militares, esta tiene gran capacidad de movilizaci?n en zonas urbanas y dispone de artiller?a ligera, metralletas, granadas e incluso de armas de calibre menores a los utilizados por el ejercito. Cuenta con un grupo entrenado en el manejo y control de masas, otro de reacci?n inmediata, uno mas de rastreo y un ?rea de inteligencia militar.

En el abanderamiento de esta unidad el presidente Fox expreso: ?M?xico cuenta y contara siempre con sus ejercito para defender las instituciones, la soberan?a, la democracia, la legalidad y la justicia? el secretario de defensa por sumarte enfatizo: ?M?xico es un pa?s de instituciones solidas, serenas y fuertes.

Al frente de este cuerpo militar estar? el general Rub?n Venzor Arellano, agregado militar en Cuba durante el mandato de Carlos Salinas.


En tercer lugar comentarios a otros comentarios:

Es valido el recuento voto por voto cuando en la muestra escogida por el TRIFE (10% de las casillas), se encuentren (como se han encontrado) irregularidades sistematicas, por lo tanto es perfectamente legal la peticion voto por voto.

Me es curioso porque siempre se reduce una protesta a "ambiciones personales", concediendo el beneficio de la duda a esta afirmacion, por que no hacerla hacia el otro lado: que ambicion lleva a Felipe Calderon a obstinarse en negar el conteo voto por voto, generando la polarizacion del pais?, si gano ?a que le teme?, no daria mas muestra de civilidad adoptando esa postura? no evidenciaria la cerrazon e incivilidad de su adversario y le quitaria los argumentos para su bloqueo y sus protestas?

Trabajo desde el 2000 en el gobierno, en el area de participacion ciudadana y desde hace tres a?os en desarrollo social, desde el gobierno JAMAS HE PRESENCIADO condicionamiento alguno de los beneficios como becas, utiles escolares, pensiones alimenticias, servicios medicos... a nuestra manera tenemos nuestra "KGB" interna, se llama contraloria y es implacable en relacion a estos abusos. Sin embargo siempre hay un mal servidor publico y malos compa?eros de partido que no pueden olvidar su pasado priista y continuan con esas practicas pero les puedo asegurar desde dentro que cuando se saben no son toleradas.

Quien o que nos asegura un futuro mejor con Calderon o lo opuesto con AMLO?, despues de 70 a?os nos liberamos del sistema priista y tan solo en 6 a?os la gran mayoria (segun yo) y un gran porcentaje (segun el IFE), decidio que el sistema PANISTA no garantiza desarrollo y se la jugo con el candidato de la izquierda, entonces porque no dar certidumbre al proceso electoral?, porque no arriesgarnos a consolidar la alternancia ahora con un gobierno de izquierda? el mismo IFE mensiona en sus manuales que - si no nos sentimos bien con el gobierno electo, tenemos seis a?os para reconsiderar y cambiar nuestra decision en la proxima eleccion-. Beneficios economicos?: cuanto ha aumentado su sueldo el trabajador ordinario con la politica economica de Fox, podemos argumentar miles de cosas pero cuando veas tu cheque o recibo de pago ahi esta la realidad cuantro trabajas en tiempo y cuanto ganas.. Muchos analistas han resumido el gobierno de Fox asi: un gobierno de empresarios para empresarios.

Otra cosa que tambien me llama la atension es porque insistir en decir que las personas son acarreadas, en las marchas y mitines mucha gente lleva un cartel: -Yo no vine por mis tortas, vine por mis huevos- y saben lo curioso de las cosas? al platicar con esa gente te das cuenta que no son siquiera del PRD, son ciudadanos comunes, a eso le tiene miedo Calderon a que la mayoria de gente que protesta no tiene partido, son ciudadanos. Durante la votacion (fui representanbte del PRD), los ancianos y algunos discapasitados, incluso ciegos llegaban por su propio pie, andadera o silla de ruedas, no vi el microbus de acarreados como en los tiempos priistas o al coyote espieando que votaran por tal o cual.

Si quieren ver un verdadero bloqueo dense una vuelta por la estacion TAPO, o el metro Candelaria, las rejas de casi dos metros bloquean el libre transito a los vecinos de los edificios de esa zona, se catea inconstitucionalmente al bajar en los puentes de la zona (dentro de una caseta "en lo obscurito"), se interrumpe el transito hacia una importante zona industrial y habitacional al cerrar inconstitucionalmente (ningun cuerpo policiaco y menos militar puede inpedir el libre transito sin una previa declaracion de guerra de un pais vecino), dos vias rapidas de la ciudad; ademas de que  hay cerca de 200 tanquetas del ejercito (perdon de la PFP). Quien esta recurriendo a la violencia? y de nuevo a la estrategia del miedo?... les recomiendo a las personas que vivan en el DF que salgan y vean, que pregunten , que no se queden con los noticireros y lo que dice la tele, salgan y hablen con su gente, con la gente real.

Finalmente si no creen en el poder de la television y los medios vean la pelicula "Wave Dog (escandalo en la casa blanca)", actuan Dustin Hoffman y Robert De Niro y denle el beneficio de la duda.

Un abrazo

Omar
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 31, 2006, 05:37:18 AM
Del primero plano (page one) del Wall Street Journal de hoy:

 
 
Disorderly Conduct
As Mexico Awaits Vote Decision,
Social Upheaval Is on the Rise

Calder?n, the Likely President,
Will Face Mass Protests,
Challenge to State Authority
Radical Takeover in Oaxaca
By DAVID LUHNOW and JOHN LYONS
August 31, 2006; Page A1

MEXICO CITY -- With conservative Felipe Calder?n now all but certain to become Mexico's next president, he faces a critical issue that will determine the success of his six-year term: How to prevent growing political confrontation from undermining the country's transition to democracy and free markets.

 
Mexico is coming off its version of the Florida 2000 election battle. Mr. Calder?n's narrow July 2 defeat of his leftist opponent Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador also landed in a court, which this week rejected Mr. L?pez Obrador's contention that the balloting was marked by fraud. The electoral court is now widely expected to name Mr. Calder?n the president by the legal deadline of Sept. 6. But unlike 2000, when former vice president Al Gore accepted the Supreme Court's ruling on the election, Mr. L?pez Obrador refuses to recognize judicial power. Instead, the former Mexico City mayor is promising to make the country ungovernable. It's as if Al Gore had called for revolution instead of calm.

On top of dealing with his election opponent, Mr. Calder?n faces other violent challenges. Radical leftist groups have taken control of Oaxaca, one of Mexico's most famous Colonial-era cities, shutting down the local government in an attempt to force out the elected governor. And in a sign of the growing reach of the drug trade, decapitated bodies turn up regularly in cities where frightened local authorities have largely given up police work.

The 44-year-old Mr. Calder?n promises to deal with these challenges through a combination of carrots and sticks. He wants to reach out to Mr. L?pez Obrador's supporters among the poor by promoting policies aimed at creating a more equal society, including expanding to poor urban areas a successful rural-welfare program that requires families to keep their children in school to receive aid. At the same time, he vows to strengthen a weakened Mexican state by confronting growing mob rule, using police to crack down on political and drug-related lawlessness around the country.

"I understand that people have the right to protest things, but only so long as they don't infringe upon the rights of others," Mr. Calder?n said this week in a speech to women business leaders. During his campaign, he promised he would not let groups of people "with machetes" interfere with his government.

Mr. Calder?n's first challenge will be simply getting to the presidential chair. Mr. L?pez Obrador's supporters have blockaded key roads in Mexico City for the past month, and plan to step up their campaign of civil disobedience. They pledge to block the country's annual armed forces parade during Independence Day celebrations on Sept. 16, and to prevent Mr. Calder?n from being sworn in at Congress on Dec. 1.

 
Mr. Calder?n's success in toning down political confrontation will shape his presidency, and determine whether he has the political skills to tackle some of the long-term problems that have stunted Mexico's development. Among them: reforming the energy sector, confronting monopolists and union bosses who have an iron grip on the country's largest industries, and asserting the rule of law in a country where police, courts and Congress are often dismissed as unjust or corrupt. The outcome will also determine whether the U.S. has a politically stable and prosperous neighbor next door or has yet another headache in its growing list of global problems.

Despite hard talk by the former energy minister, his camp is still debating how tough to get with Mr. L?pez Obrador's protest movement, according to people familiar with the discussions. One key issue on the table: Whether to urge President Vicente Fox to use force to clear Mr. L?pez Obrador's tent villages from Mexico City's main boulevard and the central square.

While some advisers think a crackdown could ease Mr. Calder?n's transition to government, others worry that confrontation would play into his rival's hands by inflaming a movement that is losing public support. Polls show support for the protest movement waning and moderates in Mr. Calder?n's camp believe Mr. L?pez Obrador's supporters in his Party of the Democratic Revolution, or PRD, are likely to distance themselves from the increasingly unpopular leader.

Meanwhile, Mr. Calder?n faces some political weakness himself. Polls show that a third of the voters believe he won through fraud. And ideological inclusiveness doesn't come naturally to his National Action Party, or PAN, a buttoned-down Catholic organization that's tight with the business elite and often criticized as out of touch with broader Mexico.

Before the vote, Mexicans and foreigners alike assumed that Mexico's peaceful transition to a democracy was a done deal, completed when President Fox ousted the former ruling party six years ago. The prevailing wisdom was that the next government's challenge was how to transform a sluggish economy to compete with more dynamic Asian rivals. Even with Mr. L?pez Obrador's ongoing challenge, the peso and stock markets remain firm and foreign investors don't seem overly concerned.

But the bitter post-electoral fight has revealed a side of Mexico that many assumed was the stuff of history books. Mexico's political transformation during the past decade is the country's third attempt to build a lasting democracy, says Enrique Krauze, one of Mexico's most prominent historians and a L?pez Obrador critic. The first attempt, by President Benito Ju?rez, lasted nearly a decade but didn't survive his 1872 death in office. The second was the brief tenure of Francisco Madero, which ended in 1913 with his assassination and a complete breakdown in order, sparking one of the most violent stretches of the period Mexicans now call their "revolution."

"There should be no doubt that Mr. L?pez Obrador represents a revolutionary threat," Mr. Krauze argues. "This is no joke. I hope that he will not succeed and democracy will prevail. But nevertheless, it's important that people realize what the stakes are."

Political analysts say the provincial politician from the rural state of Tabasco is looking to re-enact recent events in Latin American nations like Bolivia and Ecuador, where radical protest movements forced out democratically elected leaders. In Bolivia, the leader of those protests, Evo Morales, went on to win an election last year and is now that country's president.

 
Indeed, Mr. L?pez Obrador, 52, openly says Mexico "needs a revolution" and has vowed to keep his protest movement going until the nation's "simulated republic" is brought down. He has promised to use mass protests to prevent Mr. Calder?n from carrying out his agenda -- saying, for instance, that he will block moves to allow private industry to have a greater participation in everything from oil and electricity production to pension funds. According to polls, about 16% of Mexicans say they would be willing to take part in actions like blockading roads or airports to help Mr. L?pez Obrador.

C?sar Y??ez, a spokesman for Mr. L?pez Obrador, says the movement intends to use street protests to force Mr. Calder?n to respond to the leftist's goals, such as ensuring that natural resources like oil remain in the hands of the state. He rejected comparisons with Bolivia and said there are no plans to use violence to bring down the Calder?n government. "For us, the Calder?n government will be illegitimate, but that's not the same thing as saying there will be violence," he said.

Protest movements like Mr. L?pez Obrador's have flourished in recent years, finding fertile territory in a new democratic landscape swept clean of the harsh tactics of the old authoritarian regime. The graceful colonial city of Oaxaca offers a glimpse of the kinds of tactics available to Mr. L?pez Obrador. There, a protest movement is trying to force out a democratically elected governor. For the past three months, the 70,000-strong teacher union has laid siege to the city demanding a wage hike. It has occupied the downtown area with roadblocks and prevented all three branches of government from working by blocking government buildings with protesters armed with sticks, pipes and machetes.

Hotels in the one-time tourism magnet are largely empty and the city is lawless. Small gangs of student radicals, their faces covered in bandanas, roam the city center and question passersby whom they deem "suspicious." Taking photographs is now banned. Police don't dare work -- no one answers the local equivalent of 911 -- the state Congress meets secretly at a hotel, and judges stay at home.

Oaxaca state governor Ulises Ruiz, from the former ruling PRI party, tried to clear the protesters from the city in mid-June, but the mob easily beat back his police, several of whom were briefly taken hostage. After the attempted crackdown, the protesters got more radical, demanding the governor resign as a precondition for talks. They also burned buses and cars, stormed eight privately run radio stations to urge citizens to take to the streets, briefly blockaded the city airport and set a 10 p.m. curfew. Mr. Ruiz now wants federal police to intervene, but Mr. Fox has indicated he doesn't want to get involved.

"This place is no man's land," says Elpirio Vel?zquez, who owns a stall that sells school supplies in the city's central market. Mr. Vel?zquez says he supported the teachers' wage demands but thinks they've gone way too far in taking up violence and calling for the governor's ouster. "If they kick him out, then what happens? They just kick out any governor they don't like?"

The parallels are striking between the Oaxaca protests and Mr. L?pez Obrador's Mexico City sit-in. Mr. Ruiz won a 2004 gubernatorial race by a very narrow margin over his rival, a candidate of Mr. L?pez Obrador's PRD, which claimed the loss was due to fraud and threatened to organize street protests.

Mr. Calder?n's PAN party supported the PRD's candidate in the state race two years ago against Mr. Ruiz, but is now throwing its weight behind the embattled governor, arguing that his resignation would undermine the rule of law. Top PAN officials also argue allowing Mr. Ruiz to step down might encourage Mr. L?pez Obrador to continue his protests in the hopes of eventually forcing Mr. Calder?n from office. "What's happening in Oaxaca is a blueprint for the PRD to try to force Calder?n from office," says Dagoberto Carre?o, the PAN's secretary general in Oaxaca.

Mr. Calder?n will have to make some tough decisions about the use of public force that his recent predecessors have shied away from. The government's reluctance to use force is partly explained by history. A 1968 massacre of hundreds of protesters in Mexico City is the country's version of Tiananmen Square. Mexicans tend to view the use of force by the government as repression rather than law and order. When President Fox took power in 2000, polls showed that 80% of Mexicans were opposed to the government's use of force to put down dissent. That figure has since dropped, but is still high at 60%.

Under Mr. Fox, the government's unwillingness to consider force had its cost. Consider what happened to Mr. Fox's plans for a new six-runway airport near Mexico City, a glittering symbol of Mexico's climb into the global economy. Shortly after work on the project began in 2002, peasants who were due to be relocated to make room for the airport picked up machetes, blocked construction crews and took 15 state officials hostage, threatening to set them ablaze unless construction was halted. They won.

After Mr. Fox killed the project, the Mexican press was rich with debate about whether the move was a win for democracy or set a troubling precedent for mob rule. Emboldened by their win, the airport protesters next ran the mayor and police force out of the nearby town of Atenco, and started a regular campaign of highway blockades to demand goods and services. But when a newly elected governor, Enrique Pe?a, decided to end the airport group's road blockades with force this year, results were mixed. Ill-trained and under-equipped police battled protesters for two days in a bloody confrontation. The protest leaders were later jailed, but Mr. Pe?a's career suffered after he was forced to respond to charges of brutality and even sexual assaults by the police.

Mr. Calder?n hopes to set a different tone, starting in the interim period before his Dec. 1 inauguration. During that time, Mr. Fox remains as a lame-duck president but must work with a new Congress, which will be sworn in Sept. 1. Mr. Calder?n wants to work with Mr. Fox to pass some high-profile measures and show he can govern despite the turmoil on the streets. Among the possibilities are a reform of the state-owned oil company's corporate finances and a shake-up in the federal police.

Many political observers say he must go far beyond that to send strong signals that he is serious about addressing the core issues of poverty and scarce job opportunity that gave rise to Mr. L?pez Obrador's movement. In private conversations, some business executives are even urging Mr. Calder?n to go after some of the sacred cows of the Mexican economy, such as limiting the reach of the privately held Mexican monopolies. They argue that this would prove that he is not afraid to disappoint constituents in order to unblock logjams to entrepreneurship and growth.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 01, 2006, 11:04:34 PM
Mexico: Politics and the Potential for Unrest
Mexican President Vicente Fox is set to give his annual State of the Union speech at the Palacio Legislativo de San Lazaro on the evening of Sept. 1. This will be the first in a series of critical events coming up in Mexico over the next several weeks that could aggravate recent tensions caused by the July presidential election. Protests, along with political and social instability, could increase during this time.

Political tensions in Mexico rose after former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador lost the July 2 presidential election by a margin of 0.58 percent. Lopez Obrador's supporters claim the election was rife with fraud and voting irregularities. Thousands of his followers have been camped out along Mexico City's main avenues, Paseo de la Reforma, Juarez Avenue and Madero Avenue, from Chapultepec Park to the Zocalo, the city's main square. The camps are blocking traffic for five miles at the heart of the capital.




Fox's speech will be a rallying point for Lopez Obrador's supporters to voice their opposition to the election results. Though interruptions during presidential speeches are common in Mexico, the Sept. 1 address could see interruptions of an unprecedented degree. The intention would be to signal that the country is in chaos and that Fox -- who belongs to the same party as the apparent winner of the presidential election, Felipe Calderon -- cannot even deliver a State of the Union address. At least five protest marches are scheduled to converge on the Mexican Congress building the night of Fox's speech. If Lopez Obrador himself makes an appearance at the address, the assembly likely will descend into chaos. This could further destabilize the situation and raise tensions. To avoid this, Fox could submit his address to Congress in writing, as is permitted by the country's constitution, rather than risk being shouted down while trying to speak.

The next critical date is Sept. 6, the deadline for Mexico's election court to formally declare a winner in the presidential race. This announcement can come any time before that date, but the court is likely to wait until the last possible minute.

The third critical event will be Mexico's independence celebrations Sept. 15-16. Even if Lopez Obrador's supporters are no longer actively demonstrating by then, the large public gatherings in towns and cities all over Mexico will provide multiple opportunities for dissent to be stirred up. Starting Sept. 15, Mexicans will gather to celebrate the beginning of the country's struggle for independence from Spain. The celebrations are to begin at 11 p.m. local time, when Fox will re-enact Father Miguel Hidalgo y Costilla's 1810 call for independence by ringing the country's historic liberty bell at the Palacio Nacional in Mexico City's Zocalo, which could still be occupied by Lopez Obrador supporters.

The celebration culminates the next day with a military parade through the capital -- along the Paseo de la Reforma, which is currently blocked by protesters. Lopez Obrador's supporters previously threatened to block the parade but later backed down. In addition, Lopez Obrador has called for an opposition national convention Sept. 16 to declare himself the "true" president of Mexico and urge the country not to recognize the "impostor" Calderon. This would basically be calling for revolution.

If Lopez Obrador is willing to go that far, armed groups could enter the equation. In Mexico City, his party has effective control over some potentially violent groups, such as the Francisco Villa group, and others in Milpa Alta and Tlahuac on the southern outskirts of the capital, Iztapalapa in the Federal District and Atenco in Mexico state. When he resigned as mayor of Mexico City, Lopez Obrador designated his close political associate and friend, former Mexico City Police Chief Marcelo Ebrard, as his replacement. Based on old alliances and relationships, Lopez Obrador and Mayor-elect Ebrard could influence the municipal police to support his cause, or at least not to interfere with his movement.

At any point, Mexican federal authorities could react with force to attempts to further disrupt the capital, especially after the electoral court makes its official ruling. Police presence has increased in Mexico City. Municipal, state and federal police have taken up positions at the Palacio Legislativo and many of Mexico City's other important landmarks. Since a violent crackdown on student demonstrators in October 1968, Mexican authorities have been reluctant to use force against demonstrations. However, the size of the protests following the July 2 election -- an estimated 1.2 million people at one point -- is unprecedented, and could solicit an unprecedented response.

Mexico City and its outlying areas -- one of the world's largest urban areas, with a population in excess of 21 million -- is the center of gravity for this entire situation. The demonstrations and controversy have not taken on an anti-U.S. or anti-foreigner theme, but any large-scale demonstrations that elicit a heavy-handed response by federal security forces could result in chaos in the capital. If the situation erupts, foreign businesses could get caught in the turmoil. Businesses could suffer damage and employees might be unable to get to work. Sound contingency planning is the best way for multinational corporations to mitigate this disruption.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 01, 2006, 11:37:51 PM
Uno mas de www.stratfor.com

Summary

In a pivotal Aug. 28 ruling, the Mexican electoral court settled all claims made by Democratic Revolution Party presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador about the July 2 presidential election, paving the way for National Action Party candidate Felipe Calderon to be declared president. Lopez Obrador has vowed to continue his protest, and his supporters have announced that they will prevent outgoing President Vicente Fox from delivering his final address to the nation in Mexico City on Sept. 1.

Analysis

Mexico's Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary Power (TEPJF) ruled Aug. 28 to nullify about 237,000 votes from the partial recount that was called in August due to irregularities. The nullified votes affected candidates Felipe Calderon and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador proportionately; the gap between them closed by only about 4,000 votes. The ruling effectively certified that there were no major voting irregularities -- disputing Lopez Obrador's contentions -- and that Calderon did, in fact, garner more votes in the election. The TEPJF did not confirm Calderon's win since it still needs to release the complete findings of the partial recount to prove Lopez Obrador's loss and rule on the general fairness -- a factor that has been strongly question by Lopez Obrador and his Democratic Revolution Party (PRD).

Since Lopez Obrador clearly did not win a majority of the votes, his -- and his party's -- ultimate objective is the nullification of the entire election. But nullification is extremely unlikely, given the rulings already made by the TEPJF. The final deadline for the TEPJF to make its unappealable ruling and declare the National Action Party's (PAN's) Calderon president is Sept. 6. The TEPJF is likely to wait until the deadline to make the announcement, though all eyes are focused on the court for an earlier ruling.

After the TEPJF's ruling, Lopez Obrador will have no more legal avenues for protest. He has called for a national convention Sept. 16, at which he will declare himself Mexico's "true" president and Calderon an "impostor." Lopez Obrador also will announce the continuation of his civil resistance campaign and will likely offer details for his planned resistance government. But without legal avenues, one question remains: Will Lopez Obrador's political coalition hold together? The answer is probably not.

Sept. 1 is a key day in the electoral conflict. Outgoing PAN President Vicente Fox will deliver his final State of the Nation address to the newly seated Congress from Mexico City at 7 p.m. local time. Lopez Obrador's supporters have promised to disrupt the speech at all costs. Though legislators from opposing parties have often interrupted presidential addresses, interruptions for the Sept. 1 speech are rumored to be unprecedented and involve much more than simple yelling; there could be confrontations with the Presidential Guard, an appearance by Lopez Obrador or a walkout by PRD legislators and their allies (who account for 159 of 500 lower seats and 36 of 128 senate seats). Though Mexico's federal government historically has been reluctant to use force to settle political protests, it recently broke this trend when federal forces used tear gas on Lopez Obrador supporters attempting to block the entrance to the Mexican Congress building. Security has been stepped up significantly for Fox's State of the Union speech -- an indication that the government may be less squeamish about sending in troops.

A walkout, with Lopez Obrador supporters facing off against security forces outside the congressional building, is the most likely scenario. By disrupting the president's speech in such a manner, the PRD intends to signal that the country is in chaos and that Fox is not in control. Though Fox is legally allowed to deliver his address via television or a written report, his camp has said he will publicly deliver his speech regardless of potential disruptions from Lopez Obrador supporters.

However impassioned his followers might be, and even if PRD Congress members are willing to stage a walkout during Fox's address, Lopez Obrador is not likely to be able to maintain a cohesive political coalition after the TEPJF announcement. Many moderates inside the PRD might feel the political costs of supporting Lopez Obrador after the TEPJF ruling are unbearable. Among those moderates are Gov. Amalia Garcia from Zacatecas, a frequent visitor to the United States who is in very good standing with many U.S. governors, and Gov. Lazaro Cardenas of Michoacan, son of historic PRD leader Cuauhtemoc Cardenas.

If the PRD divides after the TEPJF ruling, Lopez Obrador's movement will weaken, but his protest is not likely to end soon. Regardless of the loss of support from PRD moderates, Lopez Obrador still maintains support from radicals and control of Mexico City's streets; the city's current mayor, Alejandro Encinas, and incoming Mayor Marcelo Ebrard are both PRD members and strong Lopez Obrador allies. But if Lopez Obrador loses the support of Mexico City -- and the fiscal backing that comes with it -- his movement will almost certainly stall. Fox's speech and the conflict that is bound to arise will clarify where the PRD stands in relation to its allies and how significant Lopez Obrador's future protests will be.

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 02, 2006, 08:15:59 AM
Del NY Times de hoy:
============
Protest Keeps Fox From Giving State of the Union Speech
 Marcos Delgado/European Pressphoto Agency
Lawmakers from the Democratic Revolution Party took over the podium in the chamber of deputies before President Vicente Fox was to speak.

               E-MailPrint Reprints Save
 
By JAMES C. McKINLEY Jr.
Published: September 2, 2006
MEXICO CITY, Sept. 1 ? Leftist lawmakers who have charged that fraud marred the presidential election in July staged a protest inside Congress that prevented President Vicente Fox from making his final state of the union speech to lawmakers on Friday, ending a tense day of political brinksmanship here.

Federal riot police officers and soldiers with water cannons had sealed off the Mexican Congress with miles of steel fence to protect Mr. Fox from thousands of leftist protesters camped out in the city?s center.

The president had vowed he would give his last state of the union message, despite threats from the leftist candidate, Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador, and his followers to stop him.

At the last minute, however, Mr. L?pez Obrador backed down. In front of at least 5,000 supporters in the capital?s central square, Mr. L?pez Obrador, the former mayor of this sprawling city, told his followers it would be a mistake to confront the barricades and the police surrounding Congress. He said the ?fascist? government of Mr. Fox would seize on any clashes between the police and the protesters to justify the brutal repression of his movement.

?We are not going to fall into any trap, we are not going to fall into any provocation,? he told the crowd, which had waited through a rainstorm to hear him speak. ?Only those who are not in the right resort to force and violence, and we are in the right.?

Still, lawmakers from Mr. L?pez Obrador?s Democratic Revolution Party protested inside the Chamber of Deputies, taking over the podium just before President Fox was to speak at 7 p.m. Several waved Mexican flags and signs calling Mr. Fox ?a traitor to democracy.? The president of the chamber, Deputy Jorge Zermi?o, was forced to call a recess.

Mr. Fox arrived 15 minutes later. As he entered the chamber, wearing the traditional red, white and green presidential sash, leaders of his party said it would be impossible for him to speak. He dropped off his yearly report, turned on his heel and left.

At 9 p.m., the government broadcast a recorded version of the president?s speech, complete with pictures of happy citizens to illustrate the gains his government has made in housing, education and health care.

Mr. Fox staunchly defended the balance of powers and the government institutions Mr. L?pez Obrador claims are corrupt, notably the Federal Election Institute and the electoral tribunal. He also stressed that the rule of law was the basis of democracy and he took a veiled shot at Mr. L?pez Obrador, saying ?no one should try to corral democracy through intransigence and violence.?

?Whoever attacks our laws and institutions, attacks our history, attacks Mexico,? he said.

Mr. L?pez Obrador claims he won the election, even though an official count, vetted by the country?s highest electoral tribunal, showed that the candidate from Mr. Fox?s National Action Party, Felipe Calder?n, eked out a razor-thin victory.

Rather than concede, Mr. L?pez Obrador has promised to convene his own national assembly and set up a parallel government this month. He has said that he will never recognize Mr. Calder?n?s victory and has declared that Mr. Fox violated Mexican election law by campaigning for Mr. Calder?n, as did various business leaders who spent millions on attack ads against Mr. L?pez Obrador in the last days of the campaign.

He also claimed that his opponents stuffed ballot boxes with votes for Mr. Calder?n and disposed of votes for him in some states, a charge Mr. Calder?n?s aides called absurd.

On Friday, at least 6,000 police officers in riot gear ringed the congressional building with steel barricades and blocked nearby subway stations to discourage demonstrations. Before the lawmakers? protest, the only demonstration occurred just before 6 p.m., when a small group from the Francisco Villa Popular Front, a militant group allied with Mr. L?pez Obrador, painted antigovernment slogans on the fence and threw rocks at the wall and at the police, who ignored them.

For more than a month, thousands of Mr. L?pez Obrador?s supporters have blocked the major avenue running through the city, Paseo de la Reforma, and camped out in the main square, Plaza de la Constitution.

Newly elected lawmakers from Mr. L?pez Obrador?s party arrived en masse at the legislative building about 1 p.m., broke through one of the barricades, marched into the chamber and denounced the presence of the president?s federal police.

?This is unforgivable,? announced Senator Carlos Navarette. ?The chambers should not be invaded by the federal police. This is the house of the deputies, not of the president.?

Mr. Navarette later led the protest among the lawmakers, denouncing the ring of police officers outside as an infringement on Mexicans? right to protest as his partisans rushed the dais and occupied it.

Earlier this week, an electoral tribunal charged with ratifying the election and resolving challenges threw out most of Mr. L?pez Obrador?s arguments that there was widespread fraud. The court still must rule on his request to annul the election on grounds that the president and private businesses interfered too much in the campaign.

Aides to Mr. L?pez Obrador said he had acknowledged privately that the court would probably name Mr. Calder?n president-elect next week.

What form Mr. L?pez Obrador?s protest movement will now take remains unclear, but it is certain to keep him in the public eye for the next six years and make it hard for Mr. Calder?n to govern.

?He?s saying to the government, ?Everything that I am going to do is going to give you trouble,? ? a close adviser said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Antonio Betancourt and Marc Lacey contributed reporting for this article.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 08, 2006, 10:13:01 PM
The Temptation of Don Felipe

By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY
September 8, 2006; Page A15

With so much attention focused on Mexico's disputed presidential election, it's been easy to miss another story in Mexican court which may tell more about the challenges faced by President-elect Felipe Calder?n than do the anti-democratic antics of his losing rival Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador.

We refer here to four injunctions filed in Mexican federal court last month by companies owned by billionaire media mogul Ricardo Salinas Pliego. All four of the actions are against articles in a new securities law that protect minority investors, regulate insider trading, increase disclosure, mandate an all-independent audit committee and give the national banking and securities commission broader supervisory and investigative powers.

Mr. Salinas Pliego's attempt to destroy modern securities legislation in a fledgling democracy is worth paying attention to, as is the latest move in Mexican politics to grant, yet again, special treatment to telecom tycoon Carlos Slim. Both are symptomatic of the culture of privilege that has stifled Mexican growth and left a good part of the country so poor that it bought into the siren song of the authoritarian L?pez Obrador.

Mr. Calder?n is now wrestling with the clamor from the elite for more socialism in order to neutralize the radicalized Mr. L?pez Obrador, who has refused to accept defeat. The president-elect has even suggested that he is ready to lean to port as a counteroffensive to his former rival's intransigence. Last month Mr. Calder?n said that in order to address cries of illegitimacy coming from AMLO's tent-city protest movement, "from the government, we are going to pass them on the left." This week Reuters quoted Calder?n aide Juan Camilo Mouri?o saying that "Without a doubt the next government of Mexico must have a clear social leaning. Without a doubt this must be one of the priorities, if not the priority."

This is an alarming development from a president-elect who ran on a platform to make the country fairer, more competitive and more prosperous -- and won. To adopt AMLO's platform of redistributing wealth would not only be a betrayal of those who voted for him. It would also be a recipe for disaster.

Modern economics already widely acknowledges that developing countries need 5-6% annual growth rates for at least a decade to alter the poverty profile. Decades of empirical evidence show that growth, not an expansion of entitlement programs, is what will make Mexicans better-off.

To that end, Mr. Calder?n can best defeat the left by spending his political capital going against the country's notoriously anti-competitive cartels. As the World Bank's 2007 "Doing Business" report -- released this week -- notes, he will have the highest chance of success if he pushes reform early in his tenure. If he succeeds, greater competition and transparency will drive down the cost of doing business in Mexico. As the country becomes more attractive to investors, productivity, incomes and government revenues will all rise. The president will then have the resources to help the truly needy.

If Mr. Calder?n feels the need to compete with AMLO's rhetoric, he can tell Mexico's poor that, as their champion, he is about to end the culture of privilege that has left them behind. What he must not do, though, is shrink from the confrontation with the titans who think they own Mexico. As Mr. Salinas Pliego is now showing, it won't be easy.

The World Bank report -- which measures the business climate in 175 countries -- applauds the new securities legislation that Mr. Salinas Pliego now hopes to destroy. In the category of "protecting investors," the bank bumps Mexico up 100 places, from a ranking of 133rd in the world last year to 33rd, citing this reform. Mexico's modernizers expect the law to make the country more attractive to investors, both domestic and foreign.

But Mr. Salinas doesn't seem to like oversight. Last year the U.S. SEC filed fraud charges against his company TV Azteca and two of its executives. He denied the charges and took his company out of the U.S., citing "excessive regulation." Last year in Mexico, using his special interest clout, he nearly killed the same legislation relating to minority shareholder protections as it was being born. He also used his television station to attack the integrity of one of the architects of the law. Those efforts failed. Now he's taken the case to court.

Mr. Salinas is not the only Mexican tycoon digging in his heels as Mexico tries to modernize. Telecom magnate Carlos Slim, who still controls 95% of Mexico's fixed-line telephone industry and almost all data traffic, has used the injunction process for years to stonewall deregulation and competition. Without competition, Mexico's telecom costs make the country unattractive to investors, a fact that drives up joblessness and poverty. It partly explains why China is eating Mexico's lunch in manufacturing.

Mr. Slim, who claims to be an advocate for the poor, seems to be pretty good at defending his own agenda. His former employee Pedro Cerisola is now President Vicente Fox's telecom minister and has been allegedly protecting Telmex's interests from inside the executive branch. This week Mr. Cerisola tried to unilaterally grant Telmex rights to the cable television market even though its license does not allow for such a privilege. The decision sparked a heated, public confrontation between Mr. Fox's pro-competition Treasury Secretary Francisco Gil Diaz, who objected to the deal, and Mr. Cerisola. Mexico's competition commission took Mr. Gil Diaz's side.

Mr. Calder?n is not lacking political capital to spend. A poll conducted by Mexico's Reforma newspaper last week showed that if the election were held today, he would win handily with 54% of the vote and AMLO would run a distant second with 30%. That more people are now putting their hopes in Mr. Calder?n's modern, civil and democratic vision for Mexico than in Mr. L?pez Obrador's authoritarian path of vengeance is something to celebrate in North America's youngest democracy.

But now Mr. Calder?n must allocate that capital to its highest use. Rather than spend it mimicking the messianic militant in the tent, he should make a big down payment on a future assault on privilege.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: xxxaviergs on September 12, 2006, 01:19:16 PM
hola a todos.

He tenido d?as muy ocupados y por esa raz?n no hab?a podido escribir en el foro.

 Le? un par de intervencionespor parte de compa?eros y ex-compa?eros de entrenamiento a los que les causo escozor mi mensaje anterior.

Tengo que decirles que yo no estoy a favor del gobierno panista, que hace seis a?os presento a un candidato mesi?nico que nos iba a hacer crecer de manera brutal, que iba a reducir impuestos, que nos promet?a cosas irreales, bravuc?n, pagado de si y con un proyecto m?gico; muy similar a la estrategia que uso AMLO en las pasadas campa?as electorales -creo incluso que usaron a los mismos asesores de imagen-

Este gobierno fue carente de decisi?n, incluso para destruir a AMLO, como bien lo menciona Arturo, pues aunque tuvieronn la oportunidad y los elementos desde el CISEN(no s?lo los que dieron a conocer) les faltaron elementos para ejecutar sus planes, lo mismo sucedi? con el combate a la delincuencia, la creaci?n de empleos e incluso el control sobre su familia politica, ya que los hijos de la se?ora Martha se beneficiaron de manera brutal con el programa oportunidades.

Asi mismo menciona Arturo al Ingeniero C?rdenas, personaje politico al cual respeto much?simo y quien cont? con mi voto durante las elecciones para el gobierno del DF en su momento ( que adem?s resulto una bocanada de aire fresco despues de la porqueria de gobierno de Espinoza Villareal), y tal como lo menciona, en el cupo la mesura y la inteligencia para que los proyectos de su campa?a (como el IFE y la ley electoral) se llevaran a cabo empujandolos desde una trinchera diferente; y no sacando a la gente a la calle para polarizar a la sociedad y haciendo berrinches y pataletas, autoproclamandose presidente de Pejelandia. Lo molesto no es que cierre una avenida, o tres (que si es grave, pues apuesto que mis compa?eros aunque creen en el proyecto de la "izquierda mexicana" no estan en la zona de camping de reforma), el problema es que no le interesan los excelentes proyectos que presentaba en su campa?a, le interesa ser presidente.

Tienes raz?n en la marcha no fueron 300mil ciudadanos, y quiz? fueron m?s de dos millones de ciudadanos (que no de electores) pero en un pais donde gobierna la minor?a m?s grande y no la mayor?a de los ciudadanos (por errores en el sistema electoral mexicano) no podemos hacer lo que menos del 2% de la poblaci?n exige fuera del marco de la ley que ellos ayudaron a formar, tambi?n v? los carteles que menciona Omar, creo que tienen raz?n, los acarreados que iban por sus tortas son cosa del pasado, ahora ven por sus casas, sus permisos para taxi, por el dinero en efectivo, y no por sus tortas. Si hay ciudadanos como ustedes que creen en AMLO y lo apoyan de manera incondicional, pero tambi?n existen los grupos pagados que se mueven por interese personales y no colectivos.

Porro, si, creo que AMLO opera como tal, provocando, da?ando a la poblaci?n y no al los hoteleros de cadenal multinacionales, al Presidente en funciones y menos al reci?n electo; sino a esos mismos que no tienen representaci?n,  los que se tienen que perder una hora de sue?o y otra de convivencia familiar por el plant?n, los boleros, lo voceadores y todos los changarros que viven al d?a de sus ventas y que tampoco salen en la TV.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on September 13, 2006, 04:40:48 PM
Hola a todos:

Una correccion la pelicual recomendada no es Wave Dog sino Wag the Dog, una disculpa.

Del informe aca otras cosas curiosas de nuestra "joven democracia":

El perimetro de "seguridad" al rededor del congreso se esxtendio cerca de 6 km, se impedia el acceso y libre transito a los vecinos de la zona.
En las azoteas de la zona aleda?a al congreso se apostaron francotiradores.
Una cosa muy grave, al mismo recinto parlamentario se les permitio la entrada a francotiradores.
Empiezan a correr rumores de que cada magistrado recibieron 6 millones de pesos para el fallo a favor de Calderon.


Parafraseando a Fox, en efecto el problema NO se reduce a una calle, biene la mano dura y el ser "sospechoso de ser sospechoso", primero van a detener a los perredistas, pero despues pueden seguir con cualquiera que no piense como ellos.

Para terminar, sigo con la curiosidad porque se rechaza que se le de dinero a la gente en programas sociales?, Dinamarca, Suecia, Espa?a y otros paises europeos otorgan esos beneficios. El mismo Estados Unidos subsidia a sus campesinos (por eso ellos no emigran), aqui se condena que se le den ap?yos a la gente pero se olvida que un fraude bancario fue convertido en deuda publica, que segun los analistas se terminara de pagar hasta los hijos de nuestros nietos; al primero se le llama populismo, y al segundo como lo llamariamos empresariarismo?. Insisto en mi rechazo a que se plantara la gente en las calles de la ciudad, pero un fraude y una simulacion electoral es aun mas terrible. Ningun politico tiene la razon ni es la salvacion pero los cambios politicos son procesos que se efectuan a traves de coyunturas, hay coyunturas que abren oportunidad a que la gente participe en la toma de deciciones y hay otras que retrazan este proceso, de primera mano se de la apertura que se dio a la gente durante la administracion de AMLO, para que se decidieran cosas en materia de seguridad y se ejercieran partidas presupuestales, pero sera que las personas seguimos actuando como lo describia Simon Bolivar? -Libere pueblos y aboli la tirania y con horror vi como la misma gente reconstruia la tirania- (cito de memoria). En estos procesos? me decia mi maestro se condensa lo mejor de la sociadad pero tambien lo peor, no nos enga?emos pensando en movimientos puros o en lideres incorruptibles, todos tenemos clarobscuros, la mision es participar y en la medida de lo posible impedir que los corruptos tomen el control.En mi opinion un gobierno panista retraza el proceso, pero eso ya lo veremos en seis a?os.

Un Saludo

Omar

 
Title: La izquierda despu?s de Hugo Ch?vez y L?pez Obrador
Post by: captainccs on September 13, 2006, 06:58:24 PM
La izquierda despu?s de Hugo Ch?vez y L?pez Obrador

Ra?l Tortolero

Ciudad de Mexico 13.09.06 | Ante sus seguidores, o mejor, ante sus ?groupies?, Mr Hugo Ch?vez declar? ayer que no ?reconoc?a? como leg?timo presidente electo de M?xico a Felipe Calder?n, porque notaba que hab?an sucedido ?cosas? extra?as o raras en los pasados comicios del 2 de julio en M?xico. Bueno, esto no es ning?n problema. Porque los ?nicos que deben reconocer o no reconocer al presidente electo son los mexicanos. Y Mr Hugo Ch?vez no es mexicano.

Resulta, empero, extraordinario ?aunque mucho de lo que hace el presidente venezolano lo es- que un mandatario extranjero se autoerija como una suerte de juez electoral internacional, capaz de legitimar con su palmada en la espalda a otros jefes de estado, seg?n lo que le convenga.

Lo bueno es que siempre, en todo momento, neg? toda relaci?n con el PRD mexicano. Pero ahora aboga por el ?Peje?. Que su gobierno no ten?a nada qu? ver, que no hab?a enviado aqu? a su ficha el embajador Vladimir Villegas ?quien apareci? en actos de campa?a del PRD del ahora jefe de gobierno de la Ciudad de M?xico Marcelo Ebrard, violando la ley mexicana de no intervenci?n en pol?tica interior- a ayudar a formar los c?rculos bolivarianos para que se asociaran con las redes ciudadanas. Pero ahora lo apoya, y se suma a la campa?a de inestabilidad pol?tica encabezada en M?xico por unos cuantos a?oradores de una izquierda dogm?tica, estalinista y sumamente autoritaria. Que son personas que portan en la bloqueada calle Reforma estandartes de Lenin y de Stalin (a las fotos me remito). Y eso quiere decir que, en primer lugar, ya no est?n pensando, ya no est?n reflexionando seriamente. Stalin dej? un muerto casi en cada familia durante su gobierno, y esto suma al menos 10 millones de muertos. Eso es lo que admiran y enarbolan estos trasnochados de una izquierda que ya no existe sino en sus cabezas urgidas de figuras autocr?ticas. Esta gente es profundamente antidemocr?tica y, de hecho, as? como en Alemania est?n prohibidas las manifestaciones de neonazis, deber?an estar aqu? prohibidas las manifestaciones de neoestalinistas. No saben lo que dicen estas personas. Alzan en vilo a un carnicero. No necesitamos carnicer?as por ning?n ideal en M?xico. La carnicer?a no es lo que ayudar? a los pobres a comer y a educarse. La carnicer?a no es un m?todo de crecimiento econ?mico. Pero la carnicer?a s? es una mala terapia para el desahogo de la frustraci?n y el resentimiento social de quienes siempre han estado oprimidos y ahora no buscan qui?n se las debe sino qui?n se las pague. Pero no. Las carnicer?as no son lo que les dijeron en los adoctrinamientos: nada justifica que muera nadie. No se puede construir un pa?s dejando en la espalda una carnicer?a. Lo que est?n haciendo es demoler a la verdadera izquierda y tratar de sustituirla por un sistema amparado en la violencia y la sangre.

Ch?vez decidi? expl?citamente apoyar a Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador con estas versiones. Con ello, la verdad, lo ?nico que logra es reactivar las amplias sospechas de que hubo respaldo log?stico, pol?tico y econ?mico suyo al tabasque?o durante la campa?a electoral pasada. Ahora no quedan muchas dudas sobre la cercan?a entre ambas partes. M?s bien, ninguna duda.

?De qu? informaci?n dispone este mandatario sudamericano para descalificar lo que el Tribunal Federal Electoral en M?xico revis? y aprob?? Qui?n sabe, porque nunca lo aclar?.

?Cu?les son las ?cosas raras? que advierte?

No me imagino a Felipe Calder?n, por panista que sea, de centro-derecha si ustedes quieren, declarando que no reconoce como presidente a Hugo Ch?vez. No parece algo sensato. ?C?mo puede alguien estar por encima de lo que un pueblo ha decidido en votaciones legales?

Han sido tantas las agresiones que ha recibido M?xico de parte de Mr Ch?vez que no podemos imaginar qu? sigue. Tal vez le gustar?a invadir M?xico de alguna forma. Organizar algo. O a todos los pa?ses cuyos gobiernos no le cuadran. Pero s?lo deber?a ocuparse de sus propios negocios y dejar en paz a los mexicanos. Nosotros no nos ocupamos de ?l sino cuando primero ?l relanza en su agenda el tema M?xico, y habitualmente esto significa insultos, descalificaciones ?como la reciente del presidente electo- y hasta ciertas amenazas veladas.

Para los chavistas uno no puede sentirse libre de expresar sus opiniones en medios democr?ticos y respetuosos del mundo. No puede nadie pensar diferente. Por ejemplo, la Coordinadora Continental Bolivariana, Cap?tulo M?xico, hace al que esto escribe responsable de no s? qu? campa?as. (http://www.conbolivar.org/conbol/institucional/comunicados/mexico/mex-prononcia-crisis-11-08-06.htm) De paso quiero aclararles a los se?ores de esa organizaci?n que yo no encabezo ninguna campa?a contra nadie, ni la secundo, y tambi?n, que no me gusta que Hugo Ch?vez insulte a M?xico, a nuestros gobernantes de cualquier nivel o partido pol?tico y que estoy en mi derecho constitucional de expresar mis opiniones libremente. A ustedes no los conozco. No tengo nada contra ustedes, que quede bien claro, ni mucho menos contra el gran Sim?n Bol?var, pero otra cosa son los caudillos. Y si se sienten iluminados, peor. Eso es todo. Y tambi?n aprovecho para recalcar que no pertenezco ni al PRD, ni al PAN, ni al PRI ni a ninguna otra organizaci?n o gobierno.

Pulverizando a la izquierda

Lo que s? percibo con claridad es que la actitud descalificatoria de Ch?vez, aunada a las molestias de L?pez Obrador contra la propia ciudadan?a que hubiera votado por ?l debidas a los bloqueos, son claros ejemplos no de una lucha inteligente y creativa, sino de la demolici?n total de la izquierda. Al menos de la izquierda moderna, creativa, institucional, pol?tica, moderada. Es antipropaganda plena.

La izquierda extremista no es democr?tica, es autoritaria e implica una franca inestabilidad econ?mica y la entronizaci?n del m?s acendrado autocratismo. Ambos personajes son, en realidad, enemigos de la izquierda internacional. No les preocupa que la ciudadan?a termine repudi?ndolos a ellos y a sus m?todos, porque creen que est?n por encima de las instituciones y a?n de las ideolog?as.

Pero no, no es as?. ?Por qu?? Porque simplemente no existe una ideolog?a que sea impulsada por ellos. ?Cu?l es la ideolog?a de Hugo Ch?vez? ?El bolivarismo? No puede ser, ya que no le interesa la uni?n latinoamericana, de los pueblos, y prueba de esto es que descarta a los gobiernos que no se ajustan a sus intereses. ?Y la de L?pez Obrador? Ganar las elecciones presidenciales. En el fondo, lo que hay en ambos es una fuerte palpitaci?n por el regreso de un seudosocialismo setentero que no puede regresar, ya sea en programas populistas sociales de vivienda, de apoyo clientelar a ancianos o desamparados, como t?cnicas de publicidad personal y s?lo personal.

Habr?a que ver qu? queda de la izquierda latinoamericana luego de Ch?vez y luego de L?pez Obrador. Cenizas. Ser? exactamente lo mismo que en Cuba luego de Fidel. Nadie querr? jam?s saber nada de ese sistema se le llame como se le llame. Qu? puede importar una supuesta "ideolog?a" si la gente no come, no hay luz, agua, ropa, nada. (?Y Fidel en la lista Forbes de los m?s ricos del mundo, bendita igualdad!).

Ya nadie votar? ingenuamente por seguir en tales caminos. En M?xico, s?lo basta consultar en las calles a la gente. Ahora s? supimos los alcances de la otrora noble paloma que daba sus conferencias a las 6 de la ma?ana con voz suave y buen humor. Es la misma palomita que no le importa si los enfermos mueren en las ambulancias por su bloqueo de Reforma. Que cientos de meseros y garroteros y empleados se tengan que ir a Estados Unidos porque est?n quebrando los establecimientos. Que se hayan perdido 368 millones de d?lares, seg?n estimaciones del Consejo Nacional Empresarial Tur?stico (CNET) de la Ciudad de M?xico. ?stas son las secuelas arrojadas por un ex pol?tico, l?der de una coalici?n que se nombr? ?por el bien de todos?. Qu? decepci?n. Y qu? lecci?n.


http://vcrisis.com/index.php?content=esp/200609131522


Coordinadora Continental Bolivariana, Cap?tulo M?xico
http://www.conbolivar.org/conbol/institucional/comunicados/mexico/mex-prononcia-crisis-11-08-06.htm

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 14, 2006, 01:11:26 PM
Lopez Obrador Weighing His Next Move
The Mexican opposition leader must decide whether to form a shadow government or try to push reforms through protests.
By Sam Enriquez and Carlos Mart?nez, LA Times Staff Writers
September 14, 2006


MEXICO CITY ? Losing presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will ask his followers Saturday whether they want him to head a parallel government or just chip away at the old one with a long campaign of civil disobedience.

A week after the nation's elections tribunal declared Felipe Calderon the president-elect, the summer-long protest movement by Lopez Obrador supporters demanding a national recount is fading. Tents pitched by demonstrators on Paseo de la Reforma, the capital's central boulevard, have started to disappear.

ADVERTISEMENT
Despite apparently dwindling popular support, Lopez Obrador maintains a firm grip on a loyal core eager to reshape Mexico for its legions of poor.

He's expected to chart their next move at Saturday's National Democratic Convention, which he called to protest the July 2 election, narrowly won by Calderon, and to revamp the nation's institutions.

Lopez Obrador knows he lost the election fight, most analysts said. What he wants now is a permanent opposition to the Calderon government, and a lever to nudge his Democratic Revolution Party cohorts in Congress.

"He's trying to force changes on a double path: one within the institutions and the other one on the street," said Roger Bartra, a sociologist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.

But Lopez Obrador will have to continue shaping hundreds of thousands of election protesters into a thriving leftist movement that can demand the attention of his party's congressional bloc, the second largest in the Senate and the lower house.

More than half a million delegates have signed up for Saturday's convention, organizers said, and tens of thousands more are expected to attend the event in the capital's central square, or Zocalo.

Delegates will decide whether they want to reform the government or start a new one ? a choice loaded with patriotic symbolism when offered on Mexico's Independence Day.

Simply declaring a new government doesn't give it any legitimacy. But followers of the charismatic Lopez Obrador don't seem worried.

The buzz among those rooting for a parallel government here is not whether the military will squash a nascent leftist rebellion or what to include in a reworked Mexican Constitution or even whether it's legal. It's over what to call their leader.

The longest thread on the convention's website forum concerns whether to declare Lopez Obrador the president of Mexico or name him "head of the resistance."

*

A Broader Debate

There's more to the discussion than a name: The many comments, protected by the forum's online anonymity, echo a broader debate over how far left to steer Mexico's new movement.

"He should be named 'Legitimate President' because it would be a very annoying counterbalance to Felipe Calderon," wrote "Hackal," who added, "He's already head of the resistance."

Others said they preferred a less provocative title than president, arguing that a direct challenge to the Mexican government was asking for trouble and reflected badly on their leader, who is often referred to by his initials.

"It's makes AMLO look like a dictator," said "Neon-Insurgents." "The key to the campaign of defamation against AMLO is to make him seem like a crazy person or a radical?. It's important that we're not so much a reactionary left but a left of center."

Rafael Hernandez Estrada, a member of the convention's organizing committee, said he believed delegates would favor naming Lopez Obrador the "elected president."

"We're also going to ask to create a parallel Cabinet," he said. "We won't vote on who'll be on the Cabinet. That will be up to the president."


None of the organizers could say what such a government would do next, or how they planned to govern. Lopez Obrador said the convention would draw its authority from Article 39 of the Mexican Constitution, which gives citizens the right to decide on their form of government.

But legal experts said the document does not envision changing the constitution by a show of hands on a public square, as planned for Saturday.

"Of course you can modify the form of government, but it has to be through established legal mechanisms," said Raul Carranca y Rivas, a law professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.

The registration of delegates, and their participation in the convention, keeps a tether on supporters and a ready-made contact list for Lopez Obrador as his recount campaign winds down. Some polls show his support fading.

Delegates could vote to keep the street blockades, but it's more likely protesters will go home next week, freeing up the Zocalo and several miles of Reforma after weeks of detours and worse-than-usual traffic jams, said Jose Agustin Ortiz Pinchetti, a member of the convention's organizing committee.

"We'll probably have new forms of civil resistance, but always peaceful ones," he said.

Lopez Obrador has not disclosed any plans beyond those that echo his campaign ? to narrow the income gap between rich and poor, and revamp the nation's justice system. Speaking to supporters this week, he promised a "true purification" of politics that would oust "domineering, ridiculous, mediocre, thieving politicians."

Lopez Obrador only hinted at using the pincer strategy of street protests and the PRD congressional bloc to implement his agenda. "We'll govern with one hand and transform with the other," he said in a speech Tuesday.

Bartra and other analysts are skeptical. "Lopez Obrador runs the risk of losing his influence over the PRD," Bartra said. "He's setting up all kind of confrontations, like when senators try to negotiate with other political parties."

Neither President Vicente Fox nor President-elect Calderon have had much to say about the planned convention. They have tried to drum up national pride during a week of Independence Day celebrations and turn attention away from Lopez Obrador's claim that the vote was fixed in favor of Calderon.

The threat of violent confrontation dimmed this week when Lopez Obrador agreed to keep protesters from the path of Saturday's Independence Day military parades in the Zocalo.

*

A Showdown of Sorts

Despite conceding the Zocalo to the military, however, he threatened a symbolic showdown with Fox on Friday night.

Fox, like most Mexican presidents, is to give the grito, or shout of independence, Friday night from the balcony of the National Palace.

Lopez Obrador, whose megawatt sound system and stage have stood all summer in front of the balcony where Fox is supposed to appear, says he may issue his own grito.

Calderon, who will take office Dec. 1, is on vacation until Monday, his spokesman said.

*


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
sam.enriquez@latimes.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 14, 2006, 01:15:46 PM
y, cambiando el tema completamente, uno mas:

Source: http://www.nbc10.com/news/9850095/detail.html

NBC10.com

'Dog' Arrested At Mexico's Request 

POSTED: 1:54 pm EDT September 14, 2006
UPDATED: 4:02 pm EDT September 14, 2006

MSNBC has learned that U.S. officials have arrested TV reality star Duane "Dog" Chapman and two family members in Hawaii for extradition to Mexico.

Chapman's wife told MSNBC's Rita Cosby that heavily armed U.S. marshals arrived at the family's house today and took away Chapman, his brother, Tim, and son, Leland.
"I was getting the children ready for school and the U.S. marshals burst in our door and they just came right in and took him," said Beth Chapman on MSNBC.

"He was in shock. He was, he was shocked. He was shocked and he was amazed that the marshal's service that came to get him didn't even treat him as kind as he treats his own prisoners."

A representative from the Marshal's office had a different version of what happened in Hawaii. "There were 7 deputy marshals who went to Chapman's home," said Jay Beber, from the U.S. marshal's office in Hawaii. "We knocked on the door to announce that we were U.S. marshals. ? Mr. Chapman was compliant and very respectful."

The Chapmans were in custody and expected to remain in custody for three days until a bond hearing is held. Cosby said she was told that Mexican government officials wanted the three men sent back there in relation to a three-year-old case.

In 2003, the Chapmans went to Puerto Vallarta, Mexico to retrieve Max Factor heir Andrew Luster, who was wanted in the U.S. on rape charges. Bounty hunting is considered a crime in Mexico. At that time, Mexican prosecutors maintained that Luster's capture violated their sovereignty.

The Chapmans each could face up to 8 years in prison if they are returned to Mexico and convicted on kidnapping charges.
Luster is now in jail, serving a 124-year term, but at the time, the Chapmans were also jailed by Mexican authorities for a brief time three years ago.

The three returned to the United States after posting bail of their own.

Copyright 2006 by NBC10.com.


Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 15, 2006, 05:20:28 AM
Writing May Be Oldest in Western Hemisphere
               E-MailPrint Reprints Save
 
By JOHN NOBLE WILFORD
Published: September 15, 2006
A stone slab bearing 3,000-year-old writing previously unknown to scholars has been found in the Mexican state of Veracruz, and archaeologists say it is an example of the oldest script ever discovered in the Western Hemisphere.

Skip to next paragraph
Enlarge This Image
 
Courtesy of Stephen Houston
Sixty-two distinct signs are inscribed on the stone slab, which was discovered in the state of Veracruz in Mexico.

Multimedia
Graphic
Oldest Writing in the Western Hemisphere
Related
Web Link
Oldest Writing in the New World (Science)The Mexican discoverers and their colleagues from the United States reported yesterday that the order and pattern of carved symbols appeared to be that of a true writing system and that it had characteristics strikingly similar to imagery of the Olmec civilization, considered the earliest in the Americas.

Finding a heretofore unknown writing system is rare. One of the last major ones to come to light, scholars say, was the Indus Valley script, recognized from excavations in 1924.

Now, scholars are tantalized by a message in stone in a script unlike any other and a text they cannot read. They are excited by the prospect of finding more of this writing, and eventually deciphering it, to crack open a window on one of the most enigmatic ancient civilizations.

The inscription on the Mexican stone, with 28 distinct signs, some of which are repeated, for a total of 62, has been tentatively dated from at least 900 B.C., possibly earlier. That is 400 or more years before writing was known to have existed in Mesoamerica, the region from central Mexico through much of Central America, and by extension, anywhere in the hemisphere.

Previously, no script had been associated unambiguously with the Olmec culture, which flourished along the Gulf of Mexico in Veracruz and Tabasco well before the Zapotec and Maya people rose to prominence elsewhere in the region. Until now, the Olmec were known mainly for the colossal stone heads they sculptured and displayed at monumental buildings in their ruling cities.

The stone was discovered by Mar?a del Carmen Rodr?guez of the National Institute of Anthropology and History of Mexico and Ponciano Ort?z of Veracruz University. The archaeologists, a married couple, are the lead authors of the report of the discovery, which is being published today in the journal Science.

The signs incised on the 26-pound stone, the researchers said in the report, ?link the Olmec to literacy, document an unsuspected writing system and reveal a new complexity to this civilization.?

Noting that the text ?conforms to all expectations of writing,? the researchers wrote that the sequences of signs reflected ?patterns of language, with the probable presence of syntax and language-dependent word orders.?

Several paired sequences of signs, scholars said, have even prompted speculation that the text contained poetic couplets.

Experts who have examined the Olmec symbols said they would need many more examples before they could hope to read what is written on the stone. They said it appeared that the symbols in the inscription were unrelated to later Mesoamerican scripts, suggesting that this Olmec writing might have been practiced for only a few generations and never spread to surrounding cultures.

Stephen D. Houston of Brown University, a co-author of the report and an authority on ancient writings, acknowledged that the apparent singularity of the script was a puzzle and would probably be emphasized by some scholars who question the influence of the Olmec on the course of later Mesoamerican cultures.

But Dr. Houston said the discovery ?could be the beginning of a new era of focus on the Olmec civilization.?

Other participants in the research include Michael D. Coe of Yale; Richard A. Diehl of the University of Alabama; Karl A. Taube of the University of California, Riverside; and Alfredo Delgado Calder?n, also of the National Institute of Anthropology and History.

Mesoamerican researchers not involved in the discovery agreed that the signs appeared to represent a true script and that their appearance could be expected to inspire more intensive exploration of the Olmec past. The civilization emerged about 1200 B.C. and virtually disappeared around 400 B.C.

In an accompanying article in Science, Mary Pohl, an anthropologist at Florida State University who has excavated Olmec ruins, was quoted as saying, ?This is an exciting discovery of great significance.?

A few other researchers were skeptical of the inscription?s date because the stone was uncovered in a gravel quarry where it and other artifacts were jumbled and possibly out of their original context.

The discovery team said that ceramic shards, clay figurines and other broken artifacts accompanying the stone appeared to be from a phase of Olmec culture ending about 900 B.C. They conceded, though, that the disarray at the site made it impossible to determine if the stone was in a place relating to the governing elite or a religious ceremony.

Dr. Diehl, a specialist in Olmec research, said, ?My colleagues and I are absolutely convinced the stone is authentic.?

Road builders digging gravel came across the stone in debris from an ancient mound at Cascajal, a place the discoverers said was in the ?Olmec heartland.? The village is on an island in southern Veracruz and about a mile from the ruins of San Lorenzo, the site of the dominant Olmec city from 1200 B.C. to 900 B.C.

That was in 1999, and Dr. Rodr?guez and Dr. Ort?z were called in, and they quickly recognized the potential importance of the find.

Only after years of further excavations, in which they hoped to find more writing specimens, and comparative analysis with Olmec iconography did the two invite other Mesoamerican scholars to join the study. After a few reports in recent years of Olmec ?writing? that failed to hold up, the team decided earlier this year that the Cascajal stone, as it is being called, was the real thing.

The tiny, delicate signs are incised on a block of soft serpentine stone 14 inches long, 8 inches wide and 5 inches thick. The inscription is on the stone?s concave top surface.

Dr. Houston, who was a leader in the decipherment of Maya writing, examined the stone with an eye to clues that this was true writing and not just iconography unrelated to a language. He said in an interview that he had detected regular patterns and order suggesting ?a text segmented into what almost look like sentences, with clear beginnings and clear endings.?

Some pictographic signs were frequently repeated, Dr. Houston said, particularly ones that looked like an insect or a lizard. He suspected that these were signs alerting the reader to the use of words that sound alike but have different meanings ? as in the difference in English of ?I? and ?eye.?

All in all, Dr. Houston concluded, ?the linear sequencing, the regularity of signs, the clear patterns of ordering, they tell me this is writing, but we don?t know what it says.?
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 06, 2006, 06:07:14 AM
Geopolitical Diary: Flyovers, Troops and the Oaxacan Protests

Mexican military planes and helicopters flew over protesters in the colonial city of Oaxaca for the second consecutive day Oct. 1. The months-old protest in Oaxaca has continued to escalate. What arose as an annual labor dispute by public school teachers demanding higher wages has been forcefully suppressed by Oaxacan Gov. Ulises Ruiz Ortiz and hijacked by radical fringe groups to form the People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO).

Meanwhile, a large contingent of Oaxacan protesters that began marching Sept. 22 is expected to complete the 300-mile trek and arrive in Mexico City on Oct. 3. Mexican President-elect Felipe Calderon has called for President Vicente Fox to hand over a peaceful, conflict-free government Nov. 30. Still, Fox has been pressed from all sides to do something about the protests. However, he has shown little inclination to do anything.

Mexico has had a strong aversion to the federal use of force since an Oct. 2, 1968, student protest was put down violently in Mexico City with as many as 300 students killed. Even during recent protests in Mexico City triggered by the narrow defeat of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in the presidential election, crowds were getting out of hand directly in front of an important government building before any forceful action was taken. Things would have to go very badly for a skittish federal government to use force against the Oaxacan protesters, especially since Oct. 2 marks the 38th anniversary of the government violence against student protesters a few days before the beginning of the 1968 Mexico City Olympics.

However, tanks and troop transport trucks were seen arriving Oct. 1 in Huatulco, 150 miles from Oaxaca. Taken along with the military flyovers, this is certainly a significant development. Nevertheless, military intervention is far from a foregone conclusion. While the government's claim that the overflights are routine supply missions is questionable, they may be little more than an attempt to intimidate the protesters.

While fringe groups may have taken control of the protests, the people of Oaxaca do not have long-standing, intractable disputes with the government that would lead them to insurrection. The APPO is not Hezbollah. When "unidentified gunmen" -- likely to have been the governor's henchmen -- took potshots at protesters, there was no return fire. And while barricades have been built and buses set aflame, the protesters are not armed in any meaningful way.

Nevertheless, it is force that got the problem started in the first place. An annual strike took a new turn when the teachers made far-reaching demands about the rezoning of Oaxaca, but it did not become what it is until the governor used force to suppress it. (?Que debe de haber hecho entonces?)The protests have since centered around a call for Ruiz Ortiz's resignation. The governor has had ample opportunity to muster what local forces he has available, but he wants federal involvement. However, the only military activity we have seen thus far is hardly preparation for a push into Oaxaca -- military overflights and the movement of a small contingent of troops hardly constitutes preparation for military move against the Oaxacan protesters.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 15, 2006, 10:31:36 AM
Mexican Leftists Watching Tabasco Election
Today's gubernatorial vote may determine the political fate of former presidential candidate Lopez Obrador and that of his movement.
By Sam Enriquez, Times Staff Writer
October 15, 2006


TACOTALPA, Mexico ? If you ask Cesar Ascencio, there isn't much to cheer about in this sun-baked southern town. Jobs are scarce and even shade is hard to come by after trees in the central plaza were chopped down for a renovation that's stalled halfway to nowhere.

"We live in one of the worst pueblos in Mexico," the 72-year-old retiree said. "This place is dead."

ADVERTISEMENTA couple of hours later, it came to life, if only for a little while, when hundreds of townspeople gathered at the plaza to hear leftist politician Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador promise to bring help to the nation's poor and vengeance on its rich. The crowd roared.

Lopez Obrador, who lost the July 2 presidential election to free-market candidate Felipe Calderon, isn't running for office. But his political future, and that of his fledgling leftist movement, may rest on today's gubernatorial election in Tabasco, Lopez Obrador's home state. He has spent the last several weeks campaigning for Cesar Raul Ojeda, a fellow member of the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, who's making an uphill third bid for governor.

A win by Ojeda, 54, would also be a triumph for Lopez Obrador, whose followers barricaded Mexico City's main boulevard for weeks this summer to protest the national election. Lopez Obrador, who says Calderon won by fraud, plans to install himself as the "legitimate" president in an unofficial inauguration next month. But his fight may be an uphill one too, against perceptions that he'll bring Mexico more trouble than hope.

Support for Lopez Obrador has dwindled since protesters closed down their Mexico City encampments a month ago after judges rejected demands for a national recount. So the former Mexico City mayor returned to Tabasco and has since filled plazas in his bid to secure a victory for Ojeda ? and keep his message alive.

"Lopez Obrador is trying to use Tabasco as a catapult for his movement," said Andres Granier, the 58-year-old former mayor of Villahermosa, the state capital, and Ojeda's opponent. "But it's not going to work."

Granier, who holds a lead of 9 percentage points in polls, is a candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which has run the state for seven decades. He has waged an aggressive campaign and was a well-liked mayor, but that doesn't fully explain his advantage.

Lopez Obrador won 56% of the presidential vote in Tabasco and remains wildly popular here. The trouble is, his so-called campaign of civil resistance has scared people off, including admirers such as Gilberto Macias.

Macias was in no mood to talk politics as he waited for his overheated car to cool down off a road just outside town. But he quickly rattled off a wish list for the next governor: better salaries, more jobs, safer streets, more hospitals, new roads.

"The minimum wage here is 44 pesos a day [about $4], and food is expensive, electricity is expensive, toll roads are expensive," he said. "We all want help, but now people are afraid of the 'hard left.' We're not sure anymore if we're talking about Allende in Chile or some kind of totalitarian state."

The takeover of the capital of nearby Oaxaca state this summer by striking teachers has people rethinking their support of Mexico's emerging left, he said. "We don't want any kind of trouble like that here," the 53-year-old taxi driver said.

Another Tabascan, Ciro Perez Gomez, said Lopez Obrador was "a good man who's taken the wrong road."

Ojeda said a vote for him was a vote for Lopez Obrador and for the fight to steer Mexico toward a moderate left that uses government spending and private investment to make jobs, that pays subsidies to farmers to keep them from fleeing to the United States.

"It's a modern left," he said, "with government shouldering its responsibility to the people. How can the state have so much money and yet have so many poor?"

He disagreed that losing the election would hurt Lopez Obrador.

"This movement has its own life," Ojeda said. "A loss would give opponents the chance to say it's over, but I believe the roots are deep."

His PRI opponents, he said, were up to the same old political shenanigans that had kept them in power and soured voters on the party's presidential candidate, former Tabasco Gov. Roberto Madrazo, who finished a distant third in the national election.

Ojeda supporters posted a video on YouTube.com that shows a warehouse with hundreds of new bikes that they allege the PRI had planned to give to voters. The video, indexed under "mapacheo," slang for vote-buying, shows the warehouse being emptied within minutes by passersby after its discovery by Ojeda campaigners.

A PRI spokesman said voter giveaways ? which included cooking pans and food ? were humanitarian aid. He would not say whether the bicycles were the PRI's.





"They think they can buy the vote of the people," Ojeda said. "But we have more dignity than that."

The PRI warned last week that Lopez Obrador and the PRD had recruited more than 2,000 radicals to start trouble at the polls. On Friday, authorities announced the arrests of several out-of-state PRD supporters who acknowledged that they had planned to disrupt voting. One man was injured in a jailhouse fall before his confession, police said.

Granier has campaigned on a platform of unity and promises to bring potable water, as well as jobs, schools and clinics to outlying towns.

"There are two distinct roads: ours, which is one of accord; and theirs, of provocation," he said Wednesday in his closing campaign speech.

Later that night, Lopez Obrador boarded the last flight to Mexico City. An aide brought him a cup of coffee and Lopez Obrador begged off a last interview.

"It's over, and I'm tired," he said.

He answered one question: Does he really believe he and his movement will survive a loss in Tabasco?

"Yes, I do," he said. "I believe it in my heart."
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 25, 2006, 06:36:16 PM
Mexico's Cartel Wars: The Threat Beyond the U.S. Border
October 25, 2006 20 52  GMT



By Fred Burton

The U.S. House of Representatives Homeland Security subcommittee recently issued a report on the increasing security risks along the U.S.-Mexican border. The report, which focuses on the Mexican drug cartels and the threat they pose to citizens and law enforcement on the U.S. side of the border, cites the cartels' use of military weapons and mercenaries with advanced military training, as well as their affinity for brutality and gratuitous violence.

Violence stemming from the drug cartels has existed for decades in many parts of Mexico. What is new is the fact that cartel violence is now spilling over onto the U.S. side of the border. However, although the House report -- by the Committee on Homeland Security Subcommittee on Investigations -- focuses on the current risks in the border area, the threat posed by the cartels already is making its way farther north. If left unchecked, the fighting can eventually be expected to erupt more widely in nonborder areas, affecting unprepared law enforcement agencies and even civilians.

Much of the violence is a result of the ongoing struggle between the three main drug cartels -- Gulf, Tijuana and Sinaloa -- for control of lucrative narcotics- and human-smuggling routes stretching from Mexico into the United States. Although the Mexican government has made efforts to stem the bloodshed, two main factors have impeded any major progress in this area. First is internal police corruption. Beyond the police commanders and officers who gladly accept money in exchange for providing the cartels with protection are those who face the choice between "plata o plomo," -- "silver or lead" -- meaning take a bribe or take a bullet. Second is the fact that federal and local security services are way outgunned -- both in terms of the types of weapons used and the training level of the people using them.

President-elect Felipe Calderon has vowed to end corruption in Mexico, but his administration will face the same issues as did its predecessors, and there is no indication it will have any more success at stemming the escalating violence. Indeed, the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City issued a statement Sept. 15 warning U.S. citizens of the rising level of "brutal violence in areas of Mexico," specifically the persistent violence along the U.S. border in Nuevo Laredo.

Escalating Violence

In one recent and particularly gruesome incident that illustrates the current level of violence in Mexico, a group of masked gunmen entered the Light and Shadow nightclub in Uruapan, Michoacan state, on Sept. 6, fired weapons into the air and then tossed five severed human heads onto the dance floor. Beheadings had already reached the U.S. border in June, when Mexican authorities recovered four beheaded bodies from a vacant lot in Tijuana, and then pulled the heads from the nearby Tijuana River. The victims were three local police officials and a civilian.

Mexican drug gangs, who used the beheadings tactic for the first time in April, are sending a clear message that they are willing to go to any lengths to get what they want -- and that anyone who gets in their way is doomed. This same message also has been delivered via a number of attacks using grenades and assault rifles in other parts of Mexico, including the U.S. border cities of Nuevo Laredo, Tijuana and Juarez.

Another example of the escalation in violence is the Sept. 22 firefight in an upscale neighborhood of Nuevo Laredo between enforcers for the Gulf cartel and the security forces of an assassination target (presumably from the Sinaloa cartel). The engagement, which raged on for some 40 minutes and involved anti-tank weapons, hand grenades and automatic weapons fire, reportedly resulted in the deaths of five Gulf cartel enforcers and five other people.

The Mexican government has tried various tactics throughout the years to stem the violence and corruption associated with cartels, including dispatching military troops to Nuevo Laredo and other border cities. In June 2005, a string of events in Nuevo Laredo -- including the killing of two police chiefs in the city, the second of which occurred only a few hours after he was sworn into office -- prompted the Mexican government to dispatch army troops and federal agents to the town. The army and federal agents detained all 700 officers of the Nuevo Laredo police force and temporarily assumed their duties until some semblance of order could be restored. Following interviews and drug tests, only 150 of the police officers retained their jobs; the rest were terminated or arrested. More recently, in March, the Mexican government assigned an additional 600 members of the Federal Preventative Police to Nuevo Laredo as part of another program to fight increased violence related to the drug trade. Such solutions, however, have failed to stem the corruption and violence. As evidenced by the major firefight Sept. 22, Nuevo Laredo remains a hotbed of cartel activity.

The Ongoing Cartel Wars

Because of its geographical position beneath the United States, Mexico long has been used as a staging and transshipment point for narcotics, illegal aliens and other contraband destined for U.S. markets from Mexico, South America and elsewhere. Turf battles have flared up as various criminal organizations have moved to take control of smuggling routes, or "plazas," that lead into the United States. Over time, the balance of power between the various cartels has shifted as new cartels emerge or older organizations weaken, shrink or collapse -- creating temporary power vacuums that competitors rush to fill. Vacuums sometimes are created by law enforcement successes against a particular cartel; indeed, cartels will often attempt to use law enforcement against each other, either by bribing Mexican officials to take action against a rival or by leaking intelligence about a rival's operations to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.

These kinds of tensions and frictions often can lead to inter-cartel warfare. The February 2002 death of Tijuana cartel leader and chief enforcer Ramon Arellano Felix, who was killed in a shootout with police in Mazatlan, and the March 14, 2003, capture of Gulf cartel leader Osiel Cardenas Guillen in Matamoros sparked the current period of particularly brutal warfare among the three cartels, which aim to take territory from one another. This war is being waged not only for control of Mexico's incoming drug shipments, in cities such as Acapulco and Cancun, but also for control of the outgoing network, where border towns have been focal points for violence.

The New Enforcers

The likely reason for the most dramatic changes between the drug wars of the past and the current intra-cartel violence is the makeup of the enforcing teams and the weapons they use. Though the cartels historically did their own dirty work, they now have started subcontracting out the violence to enforcers who apparently know no boundaries when it comes to who, how or where they strike.

This escalation has an obvious root cause: Some cartel leaders (notably from the Tijuana cartel) use active or retired police against their enemies, which has forced the targeted cartels to find enforcers capable of countering this strength. As a result, the Gulf cartel hired Los Zetas, a group of elite anti-drug paratroopers and intelligence operatives who deserted their federal Special Air Mobile Force Group in 1991. The Sinaloa cartel, meanwhile, formed a similar armed force called Los Pelones, literally meaning "the baldies" but typically understood to mean "new soldiers" for the shaved heads normally sported by military recruits. Because of attrition, the cartels have recently begun to reach out to bring in fresh muscle to the fight. Los Zetas has expanded to include former police and even motivated civilians. The group also has formed relationships with former members of the Guatemalan special forces known as Kaibiles and with members of the brutal Mara Salvatrucha street gang.

Though cartel enforcers have almost always had ready access to military weapons such as assault rifles, Los Zetas, Los Pelones and the Kaibiles are comprised of highly trained special forces soldiers who are able to use these weapons with deadly effectiveness. Assault rifles in the hands of untrained thugs are dangerous, but if those same rifles are placed in the hands of highly trained special forces soldiers who can operate as a fire team, they can be overwhelmingly powerful -- not only to enemies and other intended targets but also to law enforcement officers who attempt to interfere with their operations.

In addition to powerful handguns and assault rifles (which are frequently smuggled into Mexico from the United States), Los Zetas and Los Pelones are also known to possess and employ rocket-propelled grenades, hand grenades and improvised explosive devices, and have used them in attacks in several parts of Mexico. Such weapons are not confined to the Mexican side of the border, though. On Feb. 3, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced that government agents operating in Laredo seized a large cache of weapons that included dynamite, grenades and materials for making improvised explosive devices. These weapons were associated with the drug cartels.

The various enforcer groups have targeted Mexican government officials protecting rival cartels, the leadership of the rival cartels and members of those cartels' enforcement arms. Some extremely brutal executions of members of Los Zetas and Los Pelones by their contemporaries have occurred, including not only beheading but also a tactic called "necklacing," in which a tire is placed around a victim's neck and set ablaze. (The tactic was made famous by the African National Congress in South Africa).

The drug cartels also conduct intimidation campaigns and reprisal attacks against noncriminal groups such as police, government security forces and journalists -- anyone who is seen as a threat to their business. Such attacks are quite significant, and gruesome executions are often the norm. That said, the crime gangs are not always precise in their targeting. At times, they have mowed down police on the streets with assault rifles or attacked police stations with grenades and other heavy weapons, causing considerable collateral damage.

The Future

In addition to their network of tactical operators, Los Zetas and Los Pelones also have provided the cartels with an advanced intelligence and surveillance capability. This network operates on both sides of the U.S.-Mexican border and has been used to protect drug shipments from law enforcement interdiction and the forces of competing cartels. They also are accomplished at countersurveillance operations and at avoiding the countersurveillance activities of their rivals.

Law enforcement officers along the U.S. border have reported many encounters with armed smugglers who do not hesitate to shoot. In one encounter last summer, two deputy sheriffs in Hidalgo County, Texas, were attacked as they patrolled the north bank of the Rio Grande. They reported that their assailants fired 300 to 400 rounds from automatic weapons at them before withdrawing.

To date, the violence associated with this intra-cartel warfare has been much more severe in Mexico than on the U.S. side of the border. Although this trend will continue, violence can be expected to increase on the U.S. side as targeted criminals and others search for safe hiding places. Perhaps as a sign of problems to come, the Los Angeles Times reported Oct. 23 that cartel-related corruption has been "rising dramatically" on the U.S. side of the border. With corruption spreading north, it is only a matter of time before more violence follows -- particularly because the cartels are especially adept at parlaying their power to corrupt into opportunities to commit violence.

Traditionally, when violence has spiked, cartel figures have used U.S. cities such as Laredo and San Diego as rest and recreation spots, calculating that the umbrella of U.S. law enforcement would protect them from being targeted for assassination by their enemies. This is beginning to change, however, as the bolder Mexican cartel hit men carry out assassinations on the U.S. side of the border in places such as Laredo, Rio Bravo and even Dallas, where law enforcement contacts indicate Los Zetas members are believed to have assassinated at least three people.

This change will likely cause high-value cartel targets to move even deeper into the United States to avoid attack, though their enemies' brazen and sophisticated assassins will likely follow. Judging from their history in Mexico and along the border, these assassins will have no qualms about engaging law enforcement personnel who get in their way, or about causing collateral damage. Their intelligence network will be bolstered by their alliances with street gangs such as Mara Salvatrucha and Calle 18, which have affiliates in many large cities throughout the United States. These allies can either provide them with intelligence or, in some cases, be contracted to conduct assassinations.

Though the House report warns of the dangers to law enforcement and civilians on the border, the spread of this cartel violence beyond the border region could catch many law enforcement officers by surprise. Patrol officers conducting a traffic stop on a group of Los Zetas members who are preparing to conduct an assassination in, say, Los Angeles, Chicago or northern Virginia could quickly find themselves heavily outgunned and under fire. Additionally, because of their low regard for human life and disdain for innocent bystanders, any assassination attempts cartel members do manage to launch might be very messy and could result in collateral deaths of innocent people and responding law enforcement officers.

U.S. law enforcement officers along the border are aware of the problem of Mexican cartel violence and have made efforts to mitigate it, though they have found they cannot completely prevent it or root it out. This same reality will apply to the violence that will soon be seen farther inside the United States. The roots of this problem lie in Mexico, and the solution will also need to be found there.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 26, 2006, 06:28:53 AM
Uno mas con el mismo tema.  Es del NY Times hoy.

===============================

URUAPAN, Mexico ? Norte?o music was blaring at the Sol y Sombra bar on Sept. 6 when several men in military garb broke up the late night party. Waving high-powered machine guns, they screamed at the crowd to stay put and then dumped the contents of a heavy plastic bag on the dance floor. Five human heads rolled to a bloody stop.

?This is not something you see every day,? said a bartender, who asked not to be named for fear of losing his own head. ?Very ugly.?

An underworld war between drug gangs is raging in Mexico, medieval in its barbarity, its foot soldiers operating with little fear of interference from the police, its scope and brutality unprecedented, even in a country accustomed to high levels of drug violence.

In recent months the violence has included a total of two dozen beheadings, a raid on a local police station by men with grenades and a bazooka, and daytime kidnappings of top law enforcement officials. At least 123 law enforcement officials, among them 2 judges and 3 prosecutors, have been gunned down or tortured to death. Five police officers were among those beheaded.

In all, the violence has claimed more than 1,700 civilian lives this year, and federal officials say the killings are on course to top the estimated 1,800 underworld killings last year. Those death tolls compare with 1,304 in 2004 and 1,080 in 2001, these officials say.

Mexico?s law enforcement officials maintain that the violence is a sign that they have made progress dismantling the major organized crime families in the country. The arrests of several drug cartel leaders and their top lieutenants have set off a violent struggle among second-rank mobsters for trade routes, federal prosecutors say. The old order has been fractured, and the remaining drug dealers are killing one another or making new alliances.

?These alliances are happening because none of the organizations can control, on its own, the territory it used to control, and that speaks to the crisis that they are in,? said Jos? Luis Santiago Vasconcelos, the top federal prosecutor for organized crime.

Attorney General Daniel Cabeza de Vaca said a steadily rising tide of drug addiction within Mexico had spurred some of the murders, as dealers fought for local markets. At the same time, more and more honest police officers are trying to enforce the law rather than turn a blind eye to drug traffickers, often paying with their lives, prosecutors say.

But those assessments, other authorities say, are overly rosy and may explain only part of the picture. Some experts say the Mexican police forces, weakened by corruption and cowed by assassinations, are simply not up to the task of countering the underworld feuds unleashed by the arrests of cartel leaders over the last six years.

Many of the dead made their living in the drug trade and perished in a larger struggle for territory between a federation of cartels based in Sinaloa, on the Pacific Ocean, and the Gulf Cartel from the northeastern state of Tamaulipas, federal prosecutors say.

The five men beheaded in Uruapan, in Michoac?n, were street-level methamphetamine dealers, addicted themselves to the synthetic drug. They were linked loosely to the Valencia family, which once controlled most of the drug trade in the state and is a part of the Sinaloa group, the police say. The killers came from a gang called The Family, believed to be allied with the Gulf Cartel.

A day before, the killers had kidnapped the five men from a mechanic?s shop they had been using as a front for selling ?ice,? as crystal methamphetamine is called on the street. They sawed their victims? heads off with a bowie knife while they were still alive shortly before going to the bar, law enforcement officials said.

?You don?t do something like that unless you want to send a big message,? said one United States law enforcement official here, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

The beheadings, in fact, have become a signature form of intimidation aimed at both criminal rivals and federal and local authorities. In the tourist town of Acapulco, killers from one drug gang decapitated the commander of a special strike force, Mario N??ez Maga?a, in April, along with one of his agents, Jes?s Alberto Ibarra Vel?zquez.

They jammed the heads in a fence in front of the municipal police station. ?So you will learn to respect,? said a red note next to them.

Page 2 of 2)


?This year has been one to forget, a black year,? said Jorge Valdez, a spokesman for the Acapulco police. ?It?s the most violent year in the last 50 years, and the acts are barbaric, bloody, with no trace of humanity.?

The dumping of five men?s heads last month at Sol y Sombra, a club in Uruapan, was just another grisly turn in the drug wars raging in Mexico.
The violence is by no means limited to Acapulco. In mid-July, about 15 gunmen attacked a small-town police station in Tabasco State at dawn with grenades, a bazooka and machine guns in an attempt to liberate two of their gang members, who were arrested after a bar fight the night before.

Two police officers died in the assault. The authorities said the attackers were dressed in the commando outfits of federal agents and belonged to the Zetas, former soldiers who work for the Gulf Cartel.

One reason for the wave of law enforcement killings is that the Mexican police do a poor job of protecting their own. Arrests have been made in only a handful of the assassinations of police officers this year. The overwhelming majority remain unsolved because witnesses fear testifying against drug traffickers. Even seasoned investigators are afraid to dig too deep into the murders.

?There is an atmosphere that affects us, of distrust, of terror inside the police force,? said Jes?s Alem?n del Carmen, the head of the state police in Guerrero, where 22 law enforcement officials have been brutally assassinated this year.

One of the officers killed was Gonzalo Dom?nguez D?az, the state police commander in P?tzcuaro, Michoac?n. In February, he received a death threat from a local businessman who law enforcement officials say has links to the Valencia crime family.

The threat came just minutes after Commander Dom?nguez arrested two men on weapons possession charges. He arrived home that night pale and shaken, said his widow, Fanny Carranza Dom?nguez. His anxiety grew over time, after prosecutors released the men he had arrested, for a lack of evidence, his wife said.

In early May, he told his wife that he had heard on the street that gunmen were looking for him. ?He said, ?I know that if I arrest them I am risking my life,? ? she recalled. ? ?I bring them to the capital, and they let them go.? ?

On May 8, a car cut off Commander Dom?nguez?s police car as he was driving home alone about 6:30 p.m. Within minutes, he was shot point blank in the head with a 12-gauge shotgun and twice in the chest with an AK-47. He never unholstered his sidearm. So far, prosecutors have made no progress in solving his murder. He was 47, the father of three.

?I think the commanders that haven?t been killed are in the game, and the ones that have been killed, it is because they attacked crime,? Mrs. Carranza Dom?nguez said.

?The prosecutor seems asleep here,? she added. ?He doesn?t do anything but collect his salary and go home.?

Commander Dom?nguez was one of 16 state and federal police commanders assassinated this year across Mexico, along with 2 judges handling drug cases and 2 federal prosecutors. Local police chiefs have also been targets. Eight have been murdered, most of them in Michoac?n.

Most were ambushed in their cars or outside their homes by men with machine guns. A few were kidnapped by men posing as federal agents. In these cases, the bodies were found later, shot full of holes, often showing signs of torture.

Commander C?ndido Vargas, 40, the second in command of the state police in Uruapan, died that way in August. Prosecutors say he was walking to his car when he was surrounded by about 15 heavily armed men dressed in black commando outfits like those used by federal agents. It was 3:30 in the afternoon, and he was just 100 yards from the police headquarters.

The men hustled him into one of their vehicles and sped off. He was found the next day on a nearby ranch, shot 25 times. A sign next to his body read: ?For playing with two bands.?

No one from the police department visited his wife and three children, who live in another town, to tell them of his death. ?We found out through the newspaper,? said Paula Vargas, his wife of 23 years. ?It was as if the whole world fell down on me.?

The state prosecutor in Uruapan, Ram?n Ponce, says he has found no evidence of Commander Vargas?s being corrupt. Neither does he have any leads, he said. ?The atmosphere is very tense,? Mr. Ponce said. ?It?s very difficult.?

While attacks on the police have risen, they have been far outpaced by grisly gangland killings. In Michoac?n, The Family is believed to be responsible for the beheadings of a dozen people besides the ones they delivered to the Sol y Sombra bar. The heads have often been accompanied by cryptic messages declaring the killings divine justice, accusing the victims of crimes, or daring their rivals to send more henchmen.

Nearly every day, new victims are found in states along the major drug shipment routes, especially Quintana Roo, Michoac?n, Guerrero, Tamaulipas and Baja California. Most are bound, gagged and shot to death, their bodies dumped on lonely roads.

In the towns hardest hit by the gangland warfare, the fear is palpable. For two years now, Nuevo Laredo has been the main battleground for a fight between gunmen loyal to Joaqu?n (Chapo) Guzm?n of Sinaloa and the remnants of the Gulf Cartel, whose leader, Osiel C?rdenas, is in prison awaiting trial.

?I wouldn?t be human if I said I wasn?t afraid,? acknowledged Elizabeth Hern?ndez Arredone, a state prosecutor in Nuevo Laredo who has taped to her door a photograph of a female judge who recently disappeared.

The effects are everywhere. Many local journalists have stopped covering drug violence for fear they may become targets themselves. Tourists used to spill across the border from Laredo, Tex., to swig tequila, buy trinkets and run wild. Not anymore.

Church attendance is down, said the Rev. Alberto Monteras Monjar?s of Santo Ni?o Church, because even a Sunday morning can be dangerous.

?People used to sleep outside on the porch if it got too hot,? he said. ?Not anymore. You stay inside, and you put three or four locks on the door.?
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 30, 2006, 04:41:04 PM
Supuestamente este foro esta' en espanol-- pero para que sea asi, necesitamos mas apoyo de los quienes de nosotros tengan mas fuentes en espanol.  :-P  Pues, he aqui lo presente sobre la situacion en Oaxaca.
====================================

MORNING INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
10.30.2006
www.stratfor.com



Geopolitical Diary: A Mexican Standoff Worsens

Mexican federal police advanced into the center of Oaxaca City on Sunday, firing tear gas and water cannons at protesters who have been camping there for months. The demonstrators, from the People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO), are calling -- among other things -- for the resignation of Gov. Ulises Ruiz, and their protest, which started out in May as an annual teachers' strike, has grown increasingly violent and widespread of late. By late Sunday, police were advancing on a group in the central plaza who were slowing their advance by burning tires and trash and, occasionally, throwing rocks.

The political action is intensifying at a key moment -- for both talks aimed at ending the standoff and the upcoming presidential transition.

On one level, the growing tensions point to the division between the teachers groups that initially took up demonstrations and the separate radical groups that attached themselves to the teachers' cause, uniting as APPO, in June. Both groups have favored calls for Ruiz's resignation, but beyond that they had little in common: The teachers demanded education reforms, while APPO's cause is, at its root, anti-government. With so little to bind them, then, it is hardly surprising that they splintered after entering into negotiations with the federal government. On Oct. 27, the teachers agreed to a deal that would allow classes to resume Oct. 30 -- and made no mention of Ruiz's resignation, a point to which APPO is holding firm.

In recent days, the protests have taken on a more serious tone. At least four people, including an American journalist, were killed when shots were fired in Oaxaca during the weekend, and demonstrations have been taken up in Mexico City as well. In fact, APPO members in the capital on Sunday surrounded a hotel where Ruiz allegedly was staying, demanding to see the guest list -- to prove he was not there -- before dispersing.

Given the rising violence and the break between APPO and the teachers' groups, it appears that President Vicente Fox has had enough. Fox has been notoriously hesitant to use federal security forces in the Oaxaca situation, though the option has been on the table for weeks. The military began conducting flyovers of Oaxaca City on Oct. 1 -- a show of force that temporarily quieted the unrest -- while soldiers assembled in a nearby city. But with supporters outside Oaxaca state taking up APPO's political cause and the clock ticking down toward President-elect Felipe Calderon's swearing-in ceremony, the government cannot afford to let the situation fester any longer.

A negotiated truce between the APPO and police is unlikely: The protest movement has been a rag-tag coalition since its inception, and the poorly organized leadership at this point is having trouble getting supporters to comply even with requests to stop throwing rocks. The stage seems set for more violence. That said, given historical aversions to using federal police to resolve domestic matters, it seems unlikely that government troops will resort to lethal force to quell the unrest.

Fox is attempting to make good on his promise to resolve the crisis before his term ends, but the operation likely has only just begun.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 31, 2006, 08:35:21 AM
MEXICO: Both houses of the Mexican Congress asked Oaxacan Gov. Ulises Ruiz to step down in order to end the months-old crisis in his state, which recently saw federal riot police removing protesters from the Oaxaca city center. Before the request, Ruiz had repeatedly ruled out resigning.

www.stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 02, 2006, 08:18:39 AM
MEXICO: The Mexican Federal Preventive Police moved against protesters in Oaxaca as the police took the Channel 9 news building, which was previously besieged by the protesters, and worked to clear the highway of barricades. Hundreds of Molotov cocktails and dozens of homemade rockets were found in the news building; Mexican authorities are preparing charges of interruption of federal communications and explosives possession against the protesters.
www.stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 06, 2006, 08:04:20 AM
MEXICO: Three bombs exploded simultaneously outside of the headquarters of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, a ScotiaBank branch and the Federal Electoral Tribunal building in Mexico City. Another homemade device was deactivated outside a separate ScotiaBank branch. No serious injuries have been reported.
www.stratfor.com

===================

www.newschannel5.tv/pdf/investigations.pdf
Title: Mexico City Bombings
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 06, 2006, 12:39:57 PM
Mexico City Bombings: An Escalation in Tensions
Just after midnight Nov. 6, emergency officials in Mexico City received two telephone calls from an unknown source warning that bombs were about to detonate. A few minutes later, bombs exploded outside of the headquarters of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), a Scotiabank branch and the Federal Electoral Tribunal building. Two more improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were defused later outside of another Scotiabank branch and another PRI building. No serious injuries have been reported.

Although those responsible for the bombings have not been identified, Mexico is facing political and social unrest from two separate camps -- suggesting one of the two, or perhaps a sympathetic outside group, is upping the ante.

Most of the bombs contained approximately 11 pounds of the commercial blasting compound hydrogel, making them fairly large devices (the IED defused outside the PRI building contained just about 1 pound of explosives). Moreover, Mexican security officials said the IEDs were more sophisticated than the kinds of devices seen in previous attacks in the capital, although these were the first bombings in Mexico City since November 2005. At that time, an anti-globalization group calling itself the Barbarous Mexico Revolutionary Workers' Commando detonated two similarly sized bombs outside of two banks, one U.S.-owned and one Spanish-owned.

The tactics employed in the Nov. 6 bombings are similar to those used in the past by leftist groups such as the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) and its various splinters. Although the bombs were larger than those normally used, they were operated on battery-powered timers that were set to detonate at night, when fewer people would be in the area. The defused bombs even had warning signs affixed to them that read "Danger -- Bomb."

The bombings could very well be related to the unrest in Oaxaca state, where an annual teacher's protest has spiraled into a full-blown insurrection that has seen leftists and other opposition groups demand the removal of state Gov. Ulises Ruiz of the PRI.





The People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO), the main group in the poorly organized and loosely affiliated movement in Oaxaca, denied later Nov. 6 that it had any part in the bombings. The involvement of militants from the region or groups sympathetic to the APPO cause, however, cannot be ruled out. Even if the APPO leadership did not order the bombings, some of the group's fringe members -- those who believe the group's leadership is unwilling to take the necessary measures -- might have decided to take matters into their own hands.

Just last month, the crisis in Oaxaca took a more violent turn when previously unknown leftist group Revolutionary Armed Organization of the People of Oaxaca (ORAPO), detonated three small IEDs at banks in the troubled state. The ORAPO, however, claimed responsibility for that attack in a letter left at one of the sites. So far, no group has claimed responsibility for the Mexico City attacks.

The bombings also could be related to this summer's controversial presidential election. Supporters of failed candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador have been increasingly vocal about the strife in Oaxaca -- and could be planning to co-opt it into their agenda. The Federal Electoral Tribunal, which issued the ruling on the contested election that denied Lopez Obrador a victory, could have been targeted by his supporters.

If the bombings are directly connected to Oaxaca, it indicates the unrest that spread from rural Mexico to the capital is escalating. If the bombings are related to the elections, it suggests the opposition is raising the ante while the government tries to deal with the situation in Oaxaca. With both issues unsettled, the remnants of the EPR, its splinters or groups acting on behalf of the Oaxacans would have no shortage of motivations to carry out similar attacks.

Regardless of the motive, these bombings have serious implications for future stability and security in Mexico. President-elect Felipe Calderon, who had hoped to avoid having to deal with the Lopez Obrador or Oaxaca situations when he takes office Dec. 1, will likely find that both issues continue to fester -- and probably escalate. As long as the situation in Oaxaca is unresolved, the risk of similar attacks in the capital will remain.
Send questions or comments
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 08, 2006, 04:13:14 AM
Mexico: Jumping on the Oaxaca Bandwagon
Summary

An umbrella group composed of five armed revolutionary organizations claimed responsibility for the Nov. 6 bombings in Mexico City. In a Nov. 7 Internet statement, the coalition said it will continue to detonate bombs and expand attacks to target 40 national and multinational corporations throughout Mexico as long as Ulises Ruiz remains governor of Oaxaca state. And as the government cracks down on protests, as it recently did in Oaxaca, the movement probably will only grow stronger -- and extend its attacks beyond Mexico City.

Analysis

An umbrella group composed of five armed revolutionary organizations claimed responsibility Nov. 7 for Mexico City's Nov. 6 bombings outside the headquarters of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), a Scotiabank branch and the Federal Electoral Tribunal. The group added that it will carry out more attacks and expand its list of targets as long as Oaxacan Gov. Ulises Ruiz remains in power and the government continues to repress dissent. It also said it would target 40 main national and transnational organizations, as well as Mexican political and government institutions.

Mexico's left-wing groups traditionally rally behind prominent issues to harness attention for their causes. It is thus unsurprising that this group emerged amid the row over Mexico's 2006 presidential election and the ongoing crisis in Oaxaca to capitalize on the volatile political environment and win protesters' support. And as the government cracks down on protests -- as it recently did in Oaxaca, the coalition probably will only grow stronger -- and extend its attacks beyond Mexico City.

The coalition is made up of the Lucio Cabanas Barrientos Revolutionary Movement (MR-LCB), Democratic Revolutionary Tendency-People's Army (TDR-EP), Insurgent Organization-May 1, Dec. 2 Execution Brigade and Popular Liberation Brigades. Of these groups, the MR-LCB and TDR-EP are the most well-established. Both are more than five years old, and are offshoots of the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR), a left-wing guerrilla group that operates throughout Mexico.

The MR-LCB and TDR-EP recently took up the cause of the People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO) by echoing the APPO's call for the federal police to withdraw from Oaxaca and for Ruiz to step down. So long as these demands go unmet, the threat to national and transnational companies and government institutions in all parts of Mexico will remain high. But the two groups probably will not drop their threats even if their Oaxaca demands are met. Statements from both reveal that their cause is fundamentally anti-government, and so the Oaxaca crisis merely represents a convenient platform to attract attention. The decision to target multinational corporations is therefore rooted in the group's fundamental ideology.

The new umbrella group said multinational corporations that support the government are responsible for rampant poverty and the marginalization of most Mexicans, and have assisted the "cynical dictatorship" of Ruiz and "governmental repression" on the state and federal level.

This language is reminiscent of defeated presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, though there are no overt links between the umbrella group and Lopez Obrador's movement. Two of the targets of the Nov. 6 bombings -- the PRI headquarters and the Federal Electoral Tribunal building -- did play a role in the Lopez Obrador election row, however. Though PRI ideology is closer to Lopez Obrador and his Democratic Revolutionary Party's views than it is to President-elect Felipe Calderon's National Action Party, the PRI allied itself with Calderon after the election. The Federal Electoral Tribunal attack is more clearly linked to the Lopez Obrador affair, since that body rejected his claims of vote fraud and pronounced Calderon the winner of the July 2 election.

In response to the threats against government and enterprise, police stepped up security in Mexico City, focusing on transportation and state-owned companies, such as the capital's airport and subway system, PRI offices, Petroleos Mexicanos facilities, the Federal Electrical Commission and the Power and Light Co. But violence and unrest have surged beyond Mexico City.

In Oaxaca, a Burger King near a protester-occupied university was vandalized; the words "murderous multinationals" were scrawled on the building, though the restaurant is a franchise owned by local Oaxacans. And late Nov. 6, two small devices thrown at representatives of the Mexican attorney general's office in Ixtapa, a beach resort town in Guerrero state, exploded hours before a scheduled visit by Calderon. No one was injured, and Calderon's trip proceeded undisturbed. While no group has claimed responsibility for the incidents, the targets of the attacks -- a multinational corporation and government agents -- are consistent with the ideology of the coalition responsible for the Mexico City bombings.

The coalition behind the Mexico City attacks also took special care to avoid capture and cause no injuries. If it plans to continue along these lines, Mexico City's increased police presence means the groups will probably conduct future attacks elsewhere.

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 09, 2006, 10:49:26 AM
MEXICO: Mexico's People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO) said that in order to return to a dialogue, the state must cease all violent action against the group, re-establish the signal to the university radio station, liberate 60 political prisoners and find 30 missing individuals. In the meantime, APPO members have been offered asylum within the Roman Catholic Church.
www.stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 10, 2006, 08:21:22 AM
MEXICO: Members of Mexico's Oaxaca teachers union said they will return to classes Nov. 16 regardless of the ongoing conflict in the southern Mexican city. The teachers originally intended to return to classes Oct. 31 but were prevented from doing so by conflict between the Mexican federal police and the People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca.

MEXICO: Members of the People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca plan to march in Mexico City at 4 p.m. local time. The march will begin at the Independence Column and end at the office of the interior secretary.

www.stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 10, 2006, 12:01:02 PM
MEXICO: Mexican Deputy Interior Secretary Arturo Chavez said federal police forces that have been occupying Oaxaca City will shift from a containment strategy to public safety tactics. Chavez said the change is part of an effort to prevent opportunistic groups from taking advantage of unrest to commit crimes and harm citizens.
www.stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 15, 2006, 08:23:21 AM
MEXICO: Defeated Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he supports the Popular People's Assembly of Oaxaca's demands for the resignation of Oaxacan Gov. Ulises Ruiz. Obrador said his party, the Democratic Revolutionary Party, will support the cause in the legislature.

stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 20, 2006, 09:47:05 AM
www.strafor.com
MEXICO: Defeated Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador plans to hold a ceremony at 4 p.m. local time in the Zocalo in Mexico City to inaugurate himself and a 12-person Cabinet as leaders of a shadow government, El Universal reported. Thousands of people are expected to attend the ceremony.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 23, 2006, 05:07:29 AM
Lamento tantos hilos en ingles en un foro supuestamente para espanol.  ?Habra' alguien quien puede ayudarnos con informes desde Mexico?
------------------------------

Mexican Report Cites Leaders for ?Dirty War?
               E-Mail
Print
Reprints
Save

 
By JAMES C. McKINLEY Jr.
Published: November 23, 2006
MEXICO CITY, Nov. 22 ? Just before leaving office, the administration of President Vicente Fox has quietly put out a voluminous report that for the first time states unequivocally that past governments carried out a covert campaign of murder and torture against dissidents and guerrillas from the late 1960s through the early 1980s.

The 800-page report is the first acceptance of responsibility by the government for what is known here as the ?dirty war,? in which the police and the army are believed to have executed more than 700 people without trial, in many cases after torture. It also represents the fulfillment of Mr. Fox?s vow when elected in 2000 to expose the truth about an ugly chapter in Mexico?s history.

?The Mexican government has never officially accepted responsibility for these crimes,? said Kate Doyle, the director of the Mexico project of the National Security Archive, a private research group at George Washington University.

Ms. Doyle and other human rights experts said, though, that the special prosecutor who issued the report, Ignacio Carrillo Prieto, had not succeeded in prosecuting the officials responsible for the crimes it describes in such detail, notably former President Luis Echeverr?a.

Instead of being announced at a public event, as is often the case, the report was posted on the Internet late Friday night. Some human rights experts say that the way the report was released suggests that Mr. Fox?s enthusiasm for ferreting out the sins of past governments has waned since he took office.

The report relies on secret military and government documents that Mr. Fox ordered declassified. It contains lengthy chapters on the killings of student protesters in Mexico City in 1968 and 1971, as well as a brutal counterinsurgency operation in the state of Guerrero, where military officers destroyed entire villages suspected of helping the rebel leader Lucio Caba?as and tortured their inhabitants.

The report offers considerable detail, including the names of military officers responsible for various atrocities, from the razing of villages to the killing of student protesters.

It does not include orders signed by three presidents authorizing the crimes. Still, the document trail makes clear that the abuses were not the work of renegade officers, but an official government policy.

The events occurred during the administrations of Gustavo D?az Ordaz, Jos? L?pez Portillo and Mr. Echeverr?a. The federal security department kept the presidents informed about many aspects of the covert operations. Genocide charges against Mr. Echeverr?a, the only one still living, were thrown out in July by a judge who ruled that a statute of limitations had run out.

?At the end of this investigation,? the report says, ?it has been proved that the authoritarian regime, at the highest levels of command, impeded, criminalized and fought various parts of the population that organized itself to demand greater democratic participation.?

The authors of the report, which was assembled by 27 researchers, go on to state that ?the battle the regime waged against these groups ? organized among student movements and popular insurgencies ? was outside the law? and employed ?massacres, forced disappearances, systematic torture and genocide, in an attempt to destroy the part of society it considered its ideological enemy.?

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 24, 2006, 12:55:05 PM
Today's NY Slimes:



For years, Roger Barnett has holstered a pistol to his hip, tucked an assault rifle in his truck and set out over the scrub brush on his thousands of acres of ranchland near the Mexican border in southeastern Arizona to hunt.

Skip to next paragraph
 
The New York Times

Hunt illegal immigrants, that is, often chronicled in the news.

?They?re flooding across, invading the place,? Mr. Barnett told the ABC program ?Nightline? this spring. ?They?re going to bring their families, their wives, and they?re going to bring their kids. We don?t need them.?

But now, after boasting of having captured 12,000 illegal crossers on land he owns or leases from the state and emerging as one of the earliest and most prominent of the self-appointed border watchers, Mr. Barnett finds himself the prey.

Immigrant rights groups have filed lawsuits, accusing him of harassing and unlawfully imprisoning people he has confronted on his ranch near Douglas. One suit pending in federal court accuses him, his wife and his brother of pointing guns at 16 illegal immigrants they intercepted, threatening them with dogs and kicking one woman in the group.

Another suit, accusing Mr. Barnett of threatening two Mexican-American hunters and three young children with an assault rifle and insulting them with racial epithets, ended Wednesday night in Bisbee with a jury awarding the hunters $98,750 in damages.

The court actions are the latest example of attempts by immigrant rights groups to curb armed border-monitoring groups by going after their money, if not their guns. They have won civil judgments in Texas, and this year two illegal Salvadoran immigrants who had been held against their will took possession of a 70-acre ranch in southern Arizona after winning a case last year.

The Salvadorans had accused the property owner, Casey Nethercott, a former leader of the Ranch Rescue group, of menacing them with a gun in 2003. Mr. Nethercott was convicted of illegal gun possession; the Salvadorans plan to sell the property, their lawyer has said.

But Mr. Barnett, known for dressing in military garb and caps with insignia resembling the United States Border Patrol?s, represents a special prize to the immigrant rights groups. He is ubiquitous on Web sites, mailings and brochures put out by groups monitoring the Mexican border and, with family members, was an inspiration for efforts like the Minutemen civilian border patrols.

?The Barnetts, probably more than any people in this country, are responsible for the vigilante movement as it now exists,? said Mark Potok, legal director of the Southern Poverty Law Center, which tracks the groups. ?They were the recipients of so much press coverage and they kept boasting, and it was out of those boasts that the modern vigilante movement sprang up.?

Jesus Romo Vejar, the lawyer for the hunting party, said their court victory Wednesday would serve notice that mistreating immigrants would not pass unpunished. Although the hunters were not in the United States illegally, they contended that Mr. Barnett?s treatment of them reflected his attitude and practices toward Latinos crossing his land, no matter what their legal status.

?We have really, truly breached their defense,? Mr. Vejar said, ?and this opens up the Barnetts to other attorneys to come in and sue him whenever he does some wrong with people.?

Mr. Vejar said he would ask the state attorney general and the county attorney, who had cited a lack of evidence in declining to prosecute Mr. Barnett, to take another look at the case. He also said he would ask the state to revoke Mr. Barnett?s leases on its land.

Mr. Barnett had denied threatening anyone. He left the courtroom after the verdict without commenting, and his lawyer, John Kelliher, would not comment either.

In a brief interview during a court break last week, Mr. Barnett denied harming anyone and said that the legal action would not deter his efforts. He said that the number of illegal immigrants crossing his land had declined recently but that he thought it was only a temporary trend.

?For your children, for our future, that?s why we need to stop them,? Mr. Barnett said. ?If we don?t step in for your children, I don?t know who is expected to step in.?

Mr. Barnett prevailed in a suit in the summer when a jury ruled against a fellow rancher who had sued, accusing him of trespassing on his property as he pursued immigrants. Another suit last year was dropped when the plaintiff, who had returned to Mexico, decided not to return to press the case.



===========



Page 2 of 2)



Still, the threat of liability has discouraged ranchers from allowing the more militant civilian patrol groups on their land, and accusations of abuse seem to be on the wane, said Jennifer Allen of the Border Action Network, an immigrant rights group.

Skip to next paragraph
 
Michael Mally for The New York Times
Ronald Morales, right, his daughter Angelique Venese and others won a civil suit against Roger Barnett. They said he detained them illegally then pointed a rifle at them after running them off.

 
Jeffry Scott/Arizona Daily Star
Roger Barnett owns or leases 22,000 acres near the border.

But David H. Urias, a lawyer with the Mexican American Legal Defense Fund who is representing the 16 immigrants suing Mr. Barnett, said fewer complaints did not necessarily mean less activity. Immigrants from Mexico are returned to their country often within hours and often under the impression that their deportation ? and chance to try to return again ? will go quicker without their complaints.

?It took us months to find these 16 people,? Mr. Urias said.

People who tend ranches on the border said that even if they did not agree with Mr. Barnett?s tactics they sympathized with his rationale, and that putting him out of business would not resolve the problems they believe the crossers cause.

?The illegals think they have carte blanche on his ranch,? said Al Garza, the executive director of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps in Arizona, a civilian patrol group that, Mr. Garza says, does not detain illegal immigrants but calls in their movements to the Border Patrol. ?The man has had it.?

Mr. Barnett, a retired Cochise County sheriff?s deputy and the owner of a towing business, acquired his ranch in the mid-1990s, buying or leasing from the state more than 22,000 acres.

Almost from the start he took up a campaign against the people crossing the border from Mexico, sometimes detaining large groups and radioing for the Border Patrol to pick them up.

Chuy Rodriguez, a spokesman for the agency?s Tucson office, said the Border Patrol maintained no formal relationship with Mr. Barnett or other civilian groups. Agency commanders, concerned about potential altercations, have warned the groups not to take the law into their hands.

?If they see something, we ask them to call us, like we would ask of any citizen,? Mr. Rodriguez said.

Mr. Barnett?s lawyers have suggested he has acted out of a right to protect his property.

?A lease holder doesn?t have the right to protect his cattle?? Mr. Kelliher asked one of the men in the hunting party, Arturo Morales, at the trial.

?I guess so, maybe,? Mr. Morales replied.

Mr. Barnett has had several encounters with local law enforcement officials over detaining illegal immigrants, some of whom complained that he pointed guns at them. The local authorities have declined to prosecute him, citing a lack of evidence or ambiguity about whether he had violated any laws.

A few years ago, however, the Border Action Network and its allied groups began collecting testimony from illegal immigrants and others who had had confrontations with Mr. Barnett.

They included the hunters, who sued Mr. Barnett for unlawful detention, emotional distress and other claims, and sought at least $200,000. Ronald Morales; his father, Arturo; Ronald Morales?s two daughters, ages 9 and 11; and an 11-year-old friend said Mr. Barnett, his brother Donald and his wife, Barbara, confronted them Oct. 30, 2004.

Ronald Morales testified that Mr. Barnett used expletives and ethnically derogatory remarks as he sought to kick them off state-owned property he leases. Then, Mr. Morales said, Mr. Barnett pulled an AR-15 assault rifle from his truck and pointed it at them as they drove off, traumatizing the girls.

Mr. Kelliher conceded that there was a heated confrontation. But he denied that Mr. Barnett used slurs and said Ronald Morales was as much an instigator. He said Morales family members had previously trespassed on Mr. Barnett?s land and knew that Mr. Barnett required written permission to hunt there.

Even as the trial proceeded, the Border Patrol reported a 45 percent drop in arrests in the Douglas area in the last year. The agency credits scores of new agents, the National Guard deployment there this summer and improved technology in detecting crossers.

But Ms. Allen of the Border Action Network and other immigrant rights supporters suspect that people are simply crossing elsewhere
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 01, 2006, 03:58:06 PM
Lo presente me lo mando' Mauricio. !Gracias!

====================


Lo que Fox Cumplió (de sus promesas):
 
Gobierno al servicio de los ciudadanos:
 
. Construir un estado democrático de derecho: promover reformas legales y constitucionales que acoten las facultades del presidente de la republica que garanticen la autonomía y el equilibrio entre los poderes legislativo, ejecutivo y judicial; y hagan realidad el federalismo y el municipio libre.
. Fortalecimiento de instituciones públicas y consolidación de la transición democrática.
. Respetar la libertad, la diversidad y la pluralidad de la sociedad mexicana y a no usar nunca el poder de estado para imponer estilos de vida, creencias o códigos particulares de comportamiento.
. Un gobierno plural e incluyente que integre a mujeres y hombres de reconocida capacidad, calidad moral y sentido de responsabilidad.
(nada extraordinario ni fuera de lo común).
(solo 4)
 
Lo que NO cumplió Fox (sus promesas rotas):
 
Mas empleos y mejores salarios:
 
. Crear las condiciones para que la economía crezca a tasas de 7%, y genere, cuando menos, 1,300,000 empleos anuales.
. Garantizar la estabilidad de los indicadores fundamentales de la economía y asegurar la solidez del sistema financiero.
. Combatir el rezago laboral y el subempleo en el que viven millones de personas.
Superación de la pobreza y justa distribución del ingreso:
. Diseñar una política social de estado con visón de largo plazo.
. Aplicar medidas que disminuyan los elementos de pobreza con resultados en el corto plazo e eliminar los factores que provocan la transmisión generacional de la miseria.
. Garantizar el acceso a la infraestructura social básica.
 
Ataque frontal a la corrupción:
 
. Un gobierno honesto y transparente que inspire confianza a la ciudadanía.
. Un gobierno que informe con veracidad y oportunidad.
. Combatir la corrupción sin privilegios y salvedades.
. Fin de impunidad de funcionarios que cometen actividades ilícitas.
 
Construcción de un país seguro:
 
. Llevar a cabo la reforma integral del sistema de seguridad pública y justicia, a fin de incrementar la eficacia de sus instituciones.
. Atacar con firmaza la inseguridad y solucionar sus causas.
. Combatir el narcotráfico y el crimen organizado.
. Promover el respeto a los derechos humanos.
 
Desarrollo regional equilibrado:
 
. Democratizar la economía, distribuyendo las oportunidades para todos y en todas las regiones del país.
. Transferencia equitativa de recursos y facultades a estados y municipios.
. Reactivar las regiones más rezagadas e impulsar la actividad económica local.
. Fortalecer el campo y estimular la industria.
 
Nueva relación entre Mexicanos:
 
. Dar un mayor dinamismo al sector social.
. Promover acciones para eliminar toda forma de discriminación y exclusión de grupos minoritarios.
. Garantizar la equidad de genero creando oportunidades en todos los ámbitos a las mujeres.
. Crear las condiciones políticas para la solución pacífica del conflicto en Chiapas, y para los grupos armados que existen en el país, con estricto apego a derecho.
. Reconocer a los ciudadanos de la tercera edad su retribución al país.
. Verdaderas oportunidades para que la juventud construya su propio destino.
 
Gobierno ecologista:
 
. Un plan verde para revertir el desarrollo ambiental de agua, aire, suelo y subsuelo a lo largo y ancho de país.
. Un gobierno comprometido con la naturaleza y el desarrollo, que de vida a la política ambiental.
. Esfuerzo común: gobierno, sectores productivos y sociedad.
 
Relaciones exteriores:
 
. Política exterior preactiva y diversificada.
. Mayor participación en organismos internacionales.
. Ampliación del comercio exterior.
. Defensa de los derechos de los Mexicanos que viven en el extranjero.
. Dinamizar el papel de las embajadas y consulados de nuestro país.
(32 si no conté mal)
 
Lo que Fox medio cumplió (sus intentos mediocres):
 
Acceso a una educación de calidad:
 
. Garantizar una educación pública, laica y gratuita de calidad y con valores.
. Asegurar la educación a los niños y jóvenes marginados.
. Establecer la equidad como un imperativo de la educación a través del sistema de becas y financiamiento.
. Elevar el nivel y la calidad del sistema educativo así que las condiciones de trabajo para los alumnos como para los maestros.
. Proporcionar a los Mexicanos la posibilidad de capacitación y educación permanente.
 
Lo que Fox deja:
 
Administración:
 
. Disturbio legal y político: relacionado con el desafuero del jefe de gobierno de la capital del país.
 
Reformas estructurales:
 
. Vicente Foz no pudo impulsar hasta su aprobación las tres reformas más importantes que había planeado para su mandato: la reforma fiscal, la reforma energética y la reforma laboral.
 
Relaciones exteriores:
 
. Confrontaciones con países latinoamericanos particularmente con Cuba, Venezuela y miembros del MERCOSUR (Argentina, Paraguay y Uruguay).
. Defensa categórica del ALCA.
 
. El alejamiento de México con América latina también se ha puesto en evidencia tras diversos desencuentros con otros países de la región, coincidentemente todos con Gobiernos de tendencia de Izquierda; pero elegidos democráticamente en las urnas (Brasil, Uruguay, Bolivia y Chile).
 
Comercial:
 
. De 2001 a 2005 la Secretaría de Economía ejecutó una amplia estrategia de negociaciones comerciales internacionales que han respaldado la colocación de un mayor número de productos mexicanos en los mercados del exterior: o el tratado de libre comercio con el triángulo del norte (El Salvador, Honduras y Guatemala, 2001) o el TLC con la Asociación Europea de Libre Comercio (Islandia, Noruega, Liechtenstein y Suiza, Julio 2001) o el TLC con Uruguay en Julio de 2004 o el Acuerdo de la asociación económica con Japón desde Abril de 2005; el Acuerdo de Complementación Económica (ACE) con Brasil, 2003.
 
Situación Política:
Inestabilidad:
 
. Plantón de Reforma.
 
. Conflicto de Oaxaca.
 
. Inestabilidad política brutal y desacuerdos.
 
. Separación del pueblo de México.
 
Empleo:
 
. Antes de ser elegido como presidente, Fox prometió en su campaña que proporcionaría a cada Mexicano la oportunidad de un trabajo en México. En la práctica se asegura que Fox ha dependido en gran parte de una política de migración hacia los Estados Unidos como manera de proporcionar los medios de subsistencia a los obreros Mexicanos.
 
. Entre el 2000 y el 2005, más de 2 millones 632 mil Mexicanos decidieron ir a EU en busca de empleo, según datos del Pew Hispanic.
 
. En México solo unos 15 millones de trabajadores, solo una tercera parte de la población económicamente activa (PEA) desempeña una ocupación en el sector formal.
. Las personas más afectadas directamente por el desempleo y las más precarias condiciones asciende a 31 millones 700 mil, que representan 30% de la oblación del país.
 
. En Diciembre de 2000 el organismo reportó que el universo de desocupados en el país se ubicaba en 612 mil 209 individuos; de tal manera que esta cifra registró una expansión de 188% en el sexenio, lo que representó que un millón 150 mil Mexicanos se sumaron a la búsqueda de empleo que no encuentran, sin considerar a las personas que decidieron abandonar el país para radicar en el extranjero.
 
Popularidad:
 
. En mayo de 2006, recibió críticas nacionales e internacionales, debido a una declaración que fue considerada racista.
 
. Un uso descuidado de formas idiomáticas comunes en el lenguaje coloquial mexicano, lo cual sus detractores afirman que es una de las muchas pruebas de su falta de habilidad como político y estadista.
 
Pobreza:
 
. En los últimos 6 años la pobreza creció 10% hasta abarcar 75% de los 100 millones de habitantes del país, y la desigualdad social se acentuó.
 
. Uno de los más sonados triunfos del gobierno de Fox fue el reconocimiento tácito del Banco Mundial en cuanto a que los programas sociales que se aplican en México, han permitido disminuir el porcentaje de la pobreza “extrema” (no confundir con pobreza) en 17 puntos porcentuales, sin embargo esta reducción apenas es 1% menor del porcentaje que teníamos en 1994 antes de la crisis provocada por Salinas de Gortari.
 
. La pobreza alimentaría se redujo en 6.9 puntos porcentuales, lo que significa que 5.6 millones de personas superaron esta condición.
 
Derechos Humanos (¿hay?):
 
. Mientras fue el primer país del mundo en adoptar plenamente el Protocolo de Estambul para combatir y sancionar cualquier acto de tortura, sin embargo la actual administración (o la que terminó) no pudo dar respuesta a los más de 400 asesinatos de mujeres en Ciudad Juárez.
 
. En México cada día 3 mujeres, niñas y adulas, son asesinadas solo por condición de género. Esta cifra revela que los feminicidios van más allá del caso de las muertas de Juárez, pues en 6 años de 1999 a 2005, 6000 mujeres fueron victimadas en 10 estados del país.
 
. Según estadísticas de la Comisión Nacional de los derechos Humanos (CNDH) del primero de Noviembre de 2000 al 31 de Julio de 2006 se han presentado 246 quejas de agresiones a periodistas.
 
. En México son asesinados en promedio 4 periodistas al año y de 2000 a la fecha suman 22 casos.
 
Seguridad, Orden y respeto:
 
. De 2001 a Agosto de 2006 la red consular atendió 491 mil 125 casos de protección y asistencia a Mexicanos en el exterior, a fin de apoyarlos en su defensa contra actos que atentan contra su dignidad y libertad, así como sus derechos humanos y laborales, cifra que representa un incremento de 72,2% comparada con los casos atendidos en el sexenio 1995-2000. Lo que significa que la actual administración ha atendido casi el doble de casos que la anterior.
 
. En 2005, México suplanto a Colombia en el puesto del país más asesino para la prensa, de todo el continente americano.
 
. México se convirtió en un país peligroso para la prensa durante el gobierno de Vicente Fox (2000-2006) con más de 20 asesinatos de periodistas.
 
Felipe Calderón Hinojosa:
 
Para que se den una idea; nada más los retos que debe cumplir por lo heredado gracias al incompetente de Vicente Fox, es más que todo lo que anteriormente he escrito para compartirlo con Ustedes.
 
Escribiré solo o que considero (no más importante) pero si actual sobre los temas relacionados con los asuntos que Calderón hereda de Vicente Fox.
 
. Aumentar las reservas premolerás de México pues han caído drásticamente.
 
. Aumentar el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) (supongo que no se refieren a personas como Fox).
 
. México ocupa el cuarto lugar entre las naciones con mayor grado de desigualdad en América Latina, que es la región más desigual del mundo.
 
. Deberá tomar en cuanta a los simpatizantes del PRD (no como lo hizo, o no lo hizo Fox) para evitar frustraciones que leven a conflictos mayores.
 
. Control a focos rojos de violencia o estado de sitio como Oaxaca.
 
. Contexto de inseguridad.
 
. Incrementar los servicios de seguridad social, actualmente, 54.5% de los Mexicanos no están cubiertos por la seguridad social tradicional.
 
. Reanudar relaciones con América latina, especialmente con Cuba y Venezuela.
 
. Estrategias para impulsar el comercio, la infraestructura y la cooperación científica, tecnológica y académica.
 
. Establecer acuerdos con EU en materia de migración.
 
. Terminar con la inseguridad, la violencia y el robo. Hoy la inseguridad ha alcanzado niveles desproporcionados, causados por la infiltración del crimen organizado, y/o narcotráfico en los distintos niveles de gobierno y fuerzas de seguridad.
 
. Disminuir la cifra de secuestros, desapariciones y asesinatos.
 
. Garantizar que todas las personas tengan una ocupación digna, bien remunerada y estable.
 
. Disminuir la informalidad y el trabajo precario.
 
. Reducir un desempleo de más de 11 MILLONES de Mexicanos.
 
. Crear oportunidades internas para detener la excesiva migración de indocumentados e EU.
 
. Promover la igualdad de oportunidades educativas entre grupos vulnerables de la población.
 
. Aumentar el nivel educativo en la población, actualmente 28 de cada 100 jóvenes no tienen garantizado su derecho a la educación media.
 
.hasta el año 2000 la deforestación era de una 600 mil hectáreas anuales, tendencia que se mantenía a principio de 2006. Nuestro país contaba originalmente con 22 millones de hectáreas de selvas húmedas o bosques tropicales, hoy en día difícilmente restan más de 800 mil hectáreas dispersas en la región Lacandona, en Veracruz y otras regiones de Oaxaca (a pesar de los planes de Gobierno Ecologista de Fox: Gobierno ecologista:
 
. Un plan verde para revertir el desarrollo ambiental de agua, aire, suelo y subsuelo a lo largo y ancho de país.
 
. Un gobierno comprometido con la naturaleza y el desarrollo, que de vida a la política ambiental.
 
. Esfuerzo común: gobierno, sectores productivos y sociedad.)
. Recientes análisis estiman que en México se perdieron 29,765Km2 de bosque (superficie equivalente al estado de Guanajuato) de 1976 a 1933, mientras que de 1993 a 2000 (bueno, aún no llegaba Fox) se perdieron 54,306 Km2 (superficie equivalente al estado de Campeche).
 
 
 
Y bueno … !Las Promesas!:
. Dar continuidad al cambio y seguir la democratización.
 
. Combatir la cultura de la ilegalidad; la corrupción (incluso en cuerpo policíacos); la impunidad; la ineficacia de la investigación criminal; y la ausencia de una política preventiva e integradora, donde lo relevante sea la participación ciudadana.
 
. Crear un sistema único de información criminalística.
 
. Hacer de México un país ganador y generador de empleo.
 
. Promover el crecimiento económico.
 
. Compromiso con la protección del medio ambiente, aunque dijo que hay obstáculos que superar (ya empezamos, pues ¿qué en lo demás no hay obstáculos?, y de haber obstáculos: ¿será más difícil eso que combatir la corrupción y la inseguridad social? Yo no lo creo).
 
. Política exterior responsable.
 
. Desarrollar una política exterior más activa a favor de los derechos humanos y democráticos universales.
 
. Procurarse mecanismos que refuercen y extiendan los lazos culturales (por fin), políticos y económicos con América latina mientras México es un país latinoamericano inserto en Norteamérica (¿y eso qué?).
 
. Complementar nuestras acciones con los objetivos del milenio propuestos por la Organización de las Naciones Unidas.
 
. Promover activamente los derechos humanos y la democracia en el plano nacional e internacional).
 
Muchas gracias por haberse tomado el tiempo de leer este correo, seguro estoy de que a todos les interesó, pues Vicente Fox (gracias a Dios) ya terminó su gestión, y (muy a pesar mío y de muchos millones más de Mexicanos) el IFE y el TRIFE dieron por vencedor a Felipe Calderón como presidente de México, y ahora (aunque el Peje haga teatro, maroma y circo con su supuesta toma de protesta y todo el show ridículo del 20 de noviembre de 2006 en el zócalo de la ciudad de México; que conste, de haber podido votar en las elecciones lo habría hecho pro el Peje, pero aún así no apoyo actos ridículos ni manifestaciones que atenten en contra de la paz social y de miles de Mexicanos (como el plantón de Reforma), ó que (en mi caso) arbitrariamente te me quiten 2 días de salario (por orden del Sindicato Mexicano de Electricistas) para mantener y apoyar la campaña y faramallas del Peje) debemos apoyar y confiar nuevamente en que el nuevo presidente cumplirá debidamente con sus obligaciones, o si no: que el pueblo se lo demande (ojala lo cumpliéramos alguna vez). Yo esperaré que todo lo malo de mi querido, adorado y amado México se resuelvan por la vía pacífica y por el diálogo, se que un presidente no es un mago ni es Dios, mucho menos un Jedi (broma), por eso apoyaré lo más que pueda y mientras mi criterio y bolsillo me lo permitan al nuevo presidente, pero eso si, y que quede muy claro, si me falla se lo demandaré agresivamente, que quede claro, pues para mi el no debió asumir la presidencia de México.
Salud.
 
Deseo a todo el pueblo de México felices pascuas y próspero año nuevo,
 
Mauricio Sánchez Reyes
 
1 de Diciembre de 2006.
Texto tomado del enlace en la página principal del sitio de Prodigy / MSN.
 
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 05, 2006, 09:23:26 AM
MEXICO: The leader of Mexico's People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO), Flavio Sosa, was arrested late Dec. 4 on charges of kidnapping, robbery, vandalism and irregular detentions, El Universal reported. The charges are related to the APPO's street blockades in Oaxaca. Sosa was arrested after arriving in Mexico City to re-establish negotiations with the federal government.

stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 12, 2006, 06:35:57 AM
stratfor.com

Geopolitical Diary: Calderon's Presidential Challenges

Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who took office Dec. 1, began his term on unsteady ground. He faces an unresolved conflict in the southern state of Oaxaca, was inaugurated amid a physical brawl in the legislature, is troubled by widespread questioning of his legitimacy after his July 2 election win by a razor-thin margin, and continues to be publicly challenged by his defeated opponent, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who established a "shadow" government.

Given his unsteady start, Calderon knows he must act with resolve if he is to preserve or earn any respect. Settling the Oaxaca conflict is Calderon's first attempt to assert his leadership.

Tensions in Oaxaca have recently lessened, following the Dec. 4 arrest of Flavio Sosa, leader of the People's Popular Assembly of Oaxaca (APPO). Authorities arrested Sosa in Mexico City after he arrived to negotiate with the federal government. A Dec. 10 Oaxaca City march, calling for the release of Sosa and other arrested APPO members and the removal of Oaxacan Gov. Ulises Ruiz, drew less than 2,000 supporters.

High-ranking Democratic Revolutionary Party members led the march, since APPO's remaining leaders are in hiding for fear of being arrested. The hole-up of APPO members highlights the Federal Preventive Police's success in countering the group. The police have carried out massive arrests and raids, and have launched a full investigation into APPO allegations that many of the protest-related shootings have been by off-duty or undercover vigilante police officers.

Calderon's willingness to contend with Oaxaca and issue a serious response within his 10-day rule is a notable diversion from predecessor President Vicente Fox's reluctance to address Oaxaca's unrest. Fox deployed federal forces to Oaxaca at the last minute, making Calderon's administration committed to the conflict for the long haul. When federal forces eventually pull out of the city, Calderon wants to ensure they hand over control to a local authority that is accountable and trustworthy -- no easy task.

Calderon has something to prove, and the weakening APPO is a convenient target. But Sosa's arrest and the subsequent raids and investigations will not be enough to assure Calderon's authority for his entire term. Though he is unlikely to target Lopez Obrador's movement -- since it is largely irrelevant -- Calderon will seek out more avenues, such as cracking down on drug cartels and corruption and improving government transparency, to establish his validity as president and build alliances with opposing parties. He already intends to pursue massive governmental reforms, many of which will be undoubtedly unpopular; however, we can expect to see Calderon lead his quest for change with labor reforms that will create more jobs -- a popular issue in Mexico, where job creation has rarely approached demand.

Maintaining control of his government will prove to be a challenge for Calderon, who, regardless of his successful show of force in Oaxaca, must contend with a fractured populace and a divided Congress. Calderon has proven that he has the backbone to govern Mexico and settle internal conflicts, but Oaxaca is only a start.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 13, 2006, 01:43:37 PM

MEXICO: Former Mexican Interior Secretary Carlos Abascal Carranza and former President Vicente Fox will pay a political price for their role in the unrest in the southern state of Oaxaca, Guillermo Zavaleta, the president of Mexico's Congressional Justice Commission and a deputy from the National Action Party, said. Zavaleta said he believes Abascal has a "great responsibility" for the Oaxaca unrest because he took more than three months to respond to the growing violence.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 14, 2006, 08:28:06 AM
MEXICO: The Mexican federal preventative police force has doubled in size because of the transfer of 10,000 troops from the army and navy, El Universal reported. The move is part of President Felipe Calderon's campaign to combat crime in Mexico.

Stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 19, 2006, 06:07:21 PM
Mexico: Illusory Victories in Michoacan
Summary

Mexican officials said Dec. 18 they have arrested several major players in the drug cartels operating in the violence-plagued southwestern state of Michoacan. The arrests are part of Mexican President Felipe Calderon's effort to act on a campaign promise to aggressively target the cartels. Despite the dozens of arrests resulting from the operation, the sweep will result in only minimal long-term damage to the cartels.

Analysis

Security forces operating in Mexico's southwestern state of Michoacan have seized more than 100 weapons, 300 pounds of marijuana seeds and 17 pounds of opium poppy seeds, and have arrested more than 50 individuals suspected of involvement in drug trafficking. The seizures and arrests came as part of Operacion Conjunta Michoacan (OCM), an anti-cartel operation now entering its second week, Mexican officials said Dec. 18. The suspects include midlevel members of both the Gulf and Sinaloa cartels.

The arrests are part of Mexican President Felipe Calderon's effort to act on a campaign promise to aggressively target the cartels. And while the operation's results might seem impressive, the sweep will have little effect on the cartels' strategic positions in the long run.

Among the arrestees was Alfonso Barajas Figueroa, aka "Ugly Poncho," who was captured Dec. 16 in the town of Apatzingan, where he commanded a unit of approximately 35 Zetas -- the Gulf cartel's enforcers. Although Mexican authorities are calling him a "primary operator," he was not part of the Gulf cartel or Zeta national command structure. Elias Valencia, of the rival Valencia cartel, part of Sinaloa, was caught Dec. 15 along with four associates at a mountain ranch near Aguililla. (Many leaders in the Valencia cartel share the surname "Valencia.")

Two alleged "sicarios," or hired assassins, working for the Valencia cartel named Leonel Lopez Guizar and Rosalio Mendoza Gonzalez also were arrested. Finally, alleged Sinaloa cartel lieutenant Jesus Raul Beltran, who served under top cartel leader Ignacio Coronel Villarreal, was arrested Dec. 16 in Guadalajara. Raul Beltran reportedly tried to bribe the authorities $1 million not to arrest him.

Despite the high-profile arrests, crackdowns like OCM could be opportunities for cartels to offer up certain members in order to create diversions, or to have the police dispose of overly ambitious members without risking fighting within the cartel.

The operation also will have a minimal impact on the drug smugglers' organizations. The cartels are large intricate groups often made up of supporting alliances of smaller cartels, such as Sinaloa. Thus, even if the arrest of a leader or other figure damages one part of the organization, another part of the group can assume the damaged part's role. The cartels also are often compartmentalized so that one section's removal does not compromise the remainder of the group. Further hardening the illicit groups against law enforcement efforts, the cartels' organizational structures are robust. They are distributed horizontally, and are based on family relationships and personal alliances. Because of this, multiple figures can fill leadership vacuums when high-ranking members are arrested

Thus, while Calderon's efforts in Michoacan might initially bear fruit, their long-term effect on Mexico's drug war will be minimal. With so much attention being paid to Michoacan, the various cartels there could simply move to other states. And as for Michoacan itself, the only real possibility of relief from drug violence would come if one cartel were so weakened by OCM that its rival could expel it from the state.

Ultimately, the loss of midlevel operators will not cripple either the Gulf or Sinaloa cartels in Michoacan. A significant Mexican federal forces presence will therefore have to remain in the state for a long time in order to deny the area to the cartels.

www.stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on December 20, 2006, 03:21:24 PM
Hola a todos, despues de una larga ausencia me incorporo al foro, veo que hay mucha informacion, sobre todo en el presente topico, aunque tarde comparto con ustedes un articulo de un periodista estadounidense respecto a la toma de posesion del Calderon:

Asunción relámpago de un Presidente débil, perciben medios estadunidenses
   
DAVID BROOKS CORRESPONSAL
Entre los estadunidenses invitados al Palacio Legislativo estuvieron George Bush, ex presidente; Tony Garza, embajador en México, y Alberto Gonzales, procurador general

Nueva York, 1º de diciembre. Las escenas de golpes, jaloneos y concurso de coros en el Palacio Legislativo de San Lázaro se transmitieron aquí, en el contexto en que los medios reportaron sobre la toma de posesión de Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, a quien casi todos, de alguna manera u otra, califican como uno de los presidentes más débiles en tiempos recientes.

"Nuevo líder mexicano entró a hurtadillas a su puesto", fue la cabeza de la nota del traslado del poder presidencial en México en el portal de CBS News esta mañana. Casi a la misma hora, CNN transmitía múltiples veces las escenas dentro del Congreso ante el suspenso sobre si Calderón llegaría a la tribuna, e identificaba la imagen con "críticos dicen que Calderón se robó la elección". A lo largo del día se regresó al tema hablando de las condiciones de "debilidad" en que asume el poder, con un título abajo de la imagen: "López Obrador dice que es presidente 'legítimo'". Esta noche, en los noticiarios nacionales de ABC News y NBC News se mostraron las escenas caóticas del Congreso y se informó que Calderón tomó protesta "con prisa"; que hubo miles de manifestantes en la calle expresando su oposición y que la elección continúa en disputa.
 
Las agencias de noticias informaron sobre los golpes, empujones y el tiradero de curules en la pugna por controlar la sala, y una reportó que, al entrar el gobernador Arnold Schwarzenegger a San Lázaro, sonrió y dijo: "está buena la acción". El único comentario oficial desde Washington fue justo en respuesta a una pregunta sobre el tumulto en el Congreso por la toma de posesión. Tom Casey, vocero asistente del Departamento de Estado, aceptó: "ha habido un número de controversias políticas internas como secuela de la elección", y subrayó que "tenemos confianza en las instituciones democráticas de México".
Añadió: "es bienvenida la inauguración del presidente Calderón", y aseguró que el gobierno estadunidense espera continuar con la buena relación que se gozó con Vicente Fox.
Los Angeles Times publicó hoy que Calderón tomaría su puesto "como uno de los presidentes más débiles de México, rodeado por capos de la droga despiadados, monopolistas industriales, evasores de impuestos y un movimiento izquierdista frontal que amenaza con bloquearle cada movida".
El New York Times se enfocó en el espectáculo dentro del Congreso en días recientes como manifestación de los desafíos que enfrentará el Presidente, en particular la brecha que se abrió con la elección y "la parálisis que Calderón tendrá que superar para abordar
una gama de asuntos urgentes".
En un editorial publicado en su edición de este viernes, Los Angeles Times reitera: "Calderón aparece desmedidamente más débil que Fox" hace seis años, pero sugiere que esto puede ser también una oportunidad, no sólo un obstáculo, al afirmar que el presidente entrante "no tiene adonde ir más que para arriba, igual que Fox no tenía adonde ir más que para abajo (ya que llegó con tan amplio apoyo)".

Evaluaciones y consejos
Las interpretaciones de la coyuntura en México y los consejos para el Presidente empiezan a surgir por parte de expertos, editorialistas y ex políticos, sugiriendo desde "mano dura" en Oaxaca y mercados más libres hasta cómo enfrentar la crisis política en la cúpula.
El historiador John Womack, de la Universidad de Harvard, citado en el reportaje de Los Angeles
Times, considera que es errónea la percepción de muchos estadunidenses de que México cuenta con un sistema político de partidos.
"Es shakesperiano. Es como una dinastía enfrentada con un primo débil por ascender al trono y la corte jalada en 20 maneras diferentes por barones rebeldes. Es una corte en desorden tratando de formarse en una república constitucional."
La columnista Mary Anastasia O'Grady, del Wall Street Journal, tuvo un tono alarmante al advertir de la posibilidad de que extremistas lleguen a aliarse con los narcos y lleven el país al caos.
"La ilegalidad mexicana está alcanzando proporciones epidémicas", indica, y advierte: "actores violentos que prefieren el camino de terrorismo y extorsión para acaparar el poder y recursos están amenazando la seguridad nacional".
Sostiene que el desafío inmediato para Calderón es establecer orden en Oaxaca. Caracteriza a la asamblea popular y otras agrupaciones como "redes criminales bien organizadas y financiadas". Considera "particularmente preocupante pensar que grupos criminales organizados (...) podrían relacionarse con los que trafican drogas", y señala a Colombia como ejemplo de ello.
Eric Farnsworth, vicepresidente del Consejo de las Américas, elogia que Calderón y su equipo hayan reconocido que tienen que cambiar su forma de abordar el tema migratorio con Estados Unidos, asumiendo mayor responsabilidad para generar empleo y riqueza en México, en el contexto del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte.
En un artículo publicado en el Denver Post, Farnsworth agrega que "en algún punto, la apertura del sector energético a la inversión extranjera también tendrá que ser abordada".
Robert Pastor, director del Centro para Estudios de América del Norte de la American University, está de acuerdo con Farnsworth sobre la "nueva oportunidad"; sugiere que la agenda bilateral tiene que cambiar de migración a una en torno del desarrollo de América del Norte, y propone un fondo de inversiones en la zona.
A cambio de reformas en los sectores energético, educativo, laboral y fiscal y una mitad del dinero para fondos, plantea, Estados Unidos y Canadá pondrían la otra mitad. "Tal iniciativa no sólo empezaría a sanar la división política y económica dentro de México", sino que estimularía el mercado mexicano para beneficio de Estados Unidos.
El editorial de Los Angeles Times propone que la gran movida audaz que necesita Calderón al inicio de su periodo es enfrentarse "con sus apoyadores" en la iniciativa privada.
Agrega que si "avanza en enfrentar al gran empresariado y restaurar el imperio de la ley", podría "algún día obtener el estatus de una estrella de rock", como la que tenía Fox al inicio de su periodo.
A la vez, rechaza la "insensata" recomendación de adoptar algunas de las ideas de López Obrador. "Eso sería un error".
Lo que necesita México son "mercados más libres" y, por tanto, Calderón necesita romper los "monopolios y duopolios que enriquecen a las elites y actúan como un freno sobre el crecimiento" (el Times no menciona que este diagnóstico fue hecho esta semana por el Banco Mundial, como reportó La Jornada). Es obvio que habrá más consejos en los próximos días


Un comentario personal: segui los acontecimientos de ese dia a traves de la radio, desde el zocalo de la ciudad de Mexico, fue como estar en la epoca porfirista, junto a un presidente ilegitimo los obispos, los militares y la "gente bien"; fue muy impresionante los contrastes de apoyo a ambos personajes.

Un saludo

Omar
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 21, 2006, 02:25:16 PM
Gracias por ese articulo Omar.

Aqui en los EU, la gente que se toman cuenta (cuento?) de Mexico se preocupan por la creciente militarizacion de la guerra con los Narcos.  Mucha gente aqui tienen la impresion que la situacion en Mexico va por abajo:  Muchas matanzas de policia: en Nuevo Laredo se mataron el jefe (?o fue dos jefes en seguida? no acuerdo , , ,) a cuatros en Baja de les quitaron la cabeza dejandolas en sitio publico como amenanza a quien les piense desafiar, atentos al jefe de la policia en Acupulco que mato a sus guardasespaldas, etc.  Se habla del ejercito Mexicano facilitando que cruzen la frontera, apuntando armas militares a nuestro Border Patrol, y se habla de "Los Zetas" supuestamente ex-militares quienes son asesinos para los narcos, con armas militares.

?Que opinas de lo siguiente?

MEXICO: Mexican military representative Manuel Garcia Ruiz said that the Zetas, a violent organization of people with military or police training who hire their services out to cartels, are finished. He added that the majority of the remaining members have been captured or killed by the Mexican military in its efforts to drive the drug cartels from the state of Michoacan. The son of drug leader Alfonso Barajas Figueroa, who is already in federal custody, was captured.  www.stratfor.com

A mi me parece muy contradictoria a las otras cosas que estoy viendo.  ?Crees que Los Zetas estan termidos?  ?Si no, no corre el Presidente Calderon el riesgo que parezca ridiculo cuando Los Zetas atacan de nuevo?

Las preguntas son para Omar o otra persona quien quiere contestar.


Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 23, 2006, 02:20:28 PM
Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
In mid-2005, former Mexican President Vicente Fox sent some 1,500 soldiers and federal police to the U.S.-Mexican border city of Nuevo Laredo in an effort to bring escalating drug-related violence under control. The effort failed, and by May 2006 the homicide rate had more than doubled compared with the same five-month period a year earlier. One possible reason for the violence in Nuevo Laredo is the continuing war between two rival cartels over whose "gatekeeper" will control the transhipment of drugs and other contraband through the city on their way north into the United States.

Until now, little has been revealed about the all-important role of gatekeepers in the flow of narcotics from Mexico into the United States, and the flow of money back into the hands of Mexico's drug lords. Sources familiar with this aspect of the drug trade, however, say the gatekeeper is one of the highest and most powerful people in a cartel's hierarchy, perhaps second only to the kingpin.

In drug-trade lingo, the "gatekeeper" controls the "plaza," the transhipment point off of one of the main highways on the Mexican side of the border where drugs and other contraband are channeled. In Spanish, the word "plaza" means a town square, though it also can mean a military stronghold or position. In this case, it means a cartel stronghold. A gatekeeper oversees the plaza, making sure each operation runs smoothly and that the plaza bosses are collecting "taxes" on any contraband that passes through. The going rate on a kilo of cocaine is approximately $500, while the tax on $1 million in cash heading south is about $10,000.

Gatekeepers also ensure that fees are collected on the movement of stolen cargo and illegal immigrants -- including any militants who might be seeking to enter the United States through Mexico. Regardless of a person's country of origin, money buys access into the United States through these plazas, though the fees charged for smuggling Middle Eastern and South Asian males into the United States is more than for Mexicans or Central Americans. The gatekeepers' primary concern is ensuring that appropriate fees are collected and sent to cartel coffers -- and they operate in whatever manner best suits a given circumstance: intimidation, extortion or violence. Of course, one of their main jobs is to ensure that corrupt Mexican police and military personnel are paid off so plaza operations can proceed undisturbed.





The main plazas in Mexico along the Texas border are in Matamoros, south of Brownsville; Reynosa, across the border from McAllen; Nuevo Laredo, across from Laredo; and Juarez, south of El Paso. These locations provide easy access to the U.S. interstate highway system, which the cartels use to deliver their drugs to the markets they control in major U.S. cities. Plazas also are operated in Piedras Negras opposite Eagle Pass and in Ojinaga opposite Presidio.

The plaza between Matamoros and Brownsville is controlled by Ezequiel Cardenas Guillen, or "Tony Tormenta," the brother of Gulf cartel leader Osiel Cardenas Guillen, who reportedly is running his cartel from a Mexican prison. Other gatekeepers operating in the area are Juan Gabriel Montes-Senano and Alfonso Lam-Lui.

Control of the Reynosa-McAllen plaza, which belongs to the Gulf cartel, reportedly is in flux. There are two prominent commanders from Los Zetas in the area: Gregorio "El Goyo" Sauceda-Gamboa and Jaime "El Humme" Gonzalez Duran. Some reports suggest that El Goyo recently was removed from his position as gatekeeper on the orders of Gulf chief Guillen, possibly because he was losing effectiveness due to alcoholism, drug addiction and cancer complications. El Humme, believed to be second-in-command of Los Zetas, might have been brought in to take over.

Edgar Valdez Villareal "La Barbie" and Miguel Trevino Morales operate in the contested plaza of Nuevo Laredo. La Barbie is a highly placed leader in the Sinaloa federation of cartels and chief of its enforcement arm, Los Pelones -- the Sinaloa equivalent of Los Zetas. He previously operated out of Acapulco, where he reportedly oversaw the capture, videotaped torture and execution of a team of Zeta operatives. Another gatekeeper in this area is Miguel Trevino Morales, who is believed to be affiliated with the rival Gulf cartel. The war between the two cartels over this important plaza is one of the reasons for the skyrocketing violence in the city.

Martin Romo-Lopez controls the plaza in Piedras Negras, while Sergio Abranda, Crispin Borinda-Cardenas and Benjamin Cuchtas-Valisrano operate in the plaza in Ojinaga.

The area around Juarez is firmly under Sinaloa federation control, and more cartel members appear to be moving into the area. The plaza in Juarez reportedly is controlled by the Escajeda family, through cousins Oscar Alonso Candelaria Escajeda and Jose Rodolfo Escajeda. Other alleged smugglers operating in the Juarez area are Jose Luis Portillo, Gonzalo Garcia and Pedro Sanchez. These men and the Escajeda cousins reportedly were associated with the Juarez cartel, which has been heavily damaged by the inter-cartel wars and the arrests of leaders. Many of the cartel members have since aligned themselves with the Sinaloa federation.

Because some provisions of the U.S. Patriot Act have made wiring money out of the United States more complicated than before -- forcing the cartels to physically transfer money between operatives along the border -- the gatekeepers also must ensure that these operations run smoothly. To facilitate this, the gatekeepers also operate the cartels' money-laundering operations, using small businesses along the border. U.S. law enforcement sources say there has been a fivefold increase in bulk currency seizures along the border in 2006 alone.

Although there are multiple smuggling routes through Mexico for drugs and other contraband, the plazas are the cartels' critical chokepoints. Therefore, efforts to shut down the flow of drugs or illegal immigrants cannot be effective until the gatekeepers are dealt with effectively. The gatekeepers' ability to heavily influence Mexican law enforcement and government officials through cash payouts and intimidation, however, suggests this will be no easy feat.

Even if Mexican law enforcement officers were to begin focusing their efforts on the gatekeepers, any success would be short-lived unless a sweeping, nationwide effort were made. When Fox sent the Mexican army into Nuevo Laredo in 2005, the impact on the cartels was minimal. A large, overwhelming law enforcement effort on both sides of the entire border would be required to shut down the plazas and bring down the gatekeepers, something Mexico is ill-equipped to do.

The Mexican government's recent efforts against the cartels in Michoacan state could prove to be effective against local organizations in the short term, but as long as the plazas are controlled by powerful gatekeepers, and the other routes through Mexico to the U.S. border are not impeded, the narcotics and drug money will continue to flow north and south.

stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 04, 2007, 06:50:24 PM
stratfor.com

MEXICO: Former Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador resumed traveling around Mexico, beginning in the state of Yucatan. Lopez Obrador has said he intends to gather the opinions of people in the countryside and will likely seek support for his shadow government.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 22, 2007, 06:16:43 PM
Mexico: The Obstacles to Calderon's Anti-Cartel Efforts
January 22, 2007 19 17  GMT



Osiel Cardenas, who ran Mexico's powerful Gulf drug cartel from a prison cell, was in U.S. custody Jan. 22, awaiting a court appearance stemming from a 2005 federal indictment against him. The recent handover of Cardenas and three other important drug figures -- extraditions U.S. Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales called "unprecedented in their scope and importance" -- coincide with major Mexican operations against the cartels as well as calls by the Mexican government for more U.S. assistance in fighting the country's drug wars.

Although it appears that Mexican President Felipe Calderon is serious about taking on the cartels, his efforts will face stiff resistance -- not only from the drug traffickers themselves, but also from corrupt Mexican officials.

The suspects handed over to U.S. authorities Jan. 19 are considered major players in some of Mexico's more significant drug-trafficking organizations. Cardenas, the most powerful of the four, has been running his organization from prison since his arrest in 2003, and his extradition could leave the cartel without top leadership -- at least until the fighting over his replacement is concluded.

In addition to Cardenas, brothers Ismael and Gilberto Higuera Guerrero -- former high-ranking members of the Arellano Felix drug cartel -- were extradited, as was Hector "El Guero" Palma Salazar, a former high-ranking member of the Chapo Guzman-Guero Palma cartel, part of the Sinaloa Federation. In all, Mexican authorities extradited 15 suspects wanted in the United States on charges related to drugs and violence.

Should the Gulf cartel be weakened by Cardenas' extradition, the drug-related violence will likely expand into places the cartel currently controls, such as Matamoros on the Mexico-Texas border, as the rival Sinaloa Federation attempts to take over Gulf cartel territory. A succession struggle by internal factions vying to assume control of the Gulf cartel also could lead to more violence. In addition, reprisal attacks against the Mexican government in response to the extraditions are possible.

With the sole exception of Arellano Felix cartel leader Francisco Rafael Arellano Felix, who was extradited in September 2006, the government of former President Vicente Fox turned over only minor cartel figures to the United States. The handover of these other high-ranking members by Calderon's new government comes amid other government attempts to control the cartels, including the dispatching of federal police and troops to areas suffering major cartel violence.

In addition to the federal deployments and extraditions, Calderon also has asked for more assistance from Washington in fighting the cartels. Given Mexico's sensitivity to U.S. involvement in anti-cartel operations south of the border, however, Calderon likely meant that he wants more funds to fight the problem, rather than that he plans to give U.S. law enforcement agents greater freedom to operate in Mexico. U.S. operations not only are considered an infringement on Mexico's national sovereignty, they also are opposed by some because they threaten the corrupt Mexican officials who earn enormous sums of money protecting the cartels.

Although U.S. boots on the ground would elicit an outcry, the possibility of additional U.S. funds flowing into Mexico would be another matter entirely because these same corrupt officials could see it as a chance for further self-enrichment. Should Mexico receive its own version of "Plan Colombia" -- which could be Calderon's hope -- then corrupt officials could have access to hundreds of millions or even billions of U.S. dollars annually. The question then is whether a "Plan Mexico" would make a significant dent in cartel operations.

As government efforts against the cartels increase, there also is the possibility that the influential cartels will use the government as a weapon against rival cartels -- or even against other questionably loyal members of the same cartel -- by guiding law enforcement efforts toward certain people. The well-connected cartels, then, would consider these arrests and even possible extraditions as more of a housecleaning aid than as a blow to their operations.

In order to be truly effective, anti-cartel efforts in Mexico must be applied evenly against all of the cartels. If only certain ones are targeted, more violence is likely as the other cartels move in to fill the resulting power vacuums.

Stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 24, 2007, 07:04:34 AM
MEXICO: Mexican President Felipe Calderon said he plans to pursue reforms to break up monopolies by allowing businesses to operate without restrictions and increase competition, El Universal reported. Calderon specifically mentioned the telecommunications industry, saying the price of a phone call is too high.

stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 28, 2007, 05:57:13 AM
TAPACHULA, Mexico — Four Salvadoran men in jeans and T-shirts trudged along the railroad tracks under a hot sun, their steps carrying them steadily toward a fuzzy but seductive dream.

Skip to next paragraph
Multimedia
Photographs
Perilous Journey
Map
Enlarge This Image
 
Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York Times
Donar Antonio Ramírez Espinas lost both his legs during his attempt to cross into the United States. “You make the decision to look for a better life,” he said, “without knowing that you could end up like this.” More Photos »
They had been in Mexico for only a few hours and already federal police officers had forced them to strip and had taken almost all their cash, they said. They had some 1,500 miles to go to reach the United States border, with no food or water and $9 each.

They intended to walk along the Chiapas coast for the first 250 miles through a dozen towns where migrants are regularly robbed or raped. Then they planned to clamber aboard a freight train with hundreds of other immigrants for the trip north, a dangerous journey that has left hundreds before them maimed after they fell under the wheels.

“It’s dangerous, yes, one risks one’s life,” said one of the men, Noé Hernández. “One risks it if you have a family member in the States to help you. It’s not just for fun we go through Mexico.”

A month ago, Mexico’s new president, Felipe Calderón, announced measures to slow the flow of illegal immigrants across Mexico’s southern border and reduce crime in this lush but impoverished region. He stepped up the presence of soldiers and federal police here, told of plans for a guest worker program and promised joint state and federal operations to catch illegal immigrants.

But much remains to be done to stop or deter the migrants, and for now the measures have had little effect. Social workers and volunteers who aid the migrants say they keep coming.

Every three days, 300 to 500 Central Americans swarm the freight train in Arriaga, strapping themselves with ropes or belts to the tops of cars or riding between the wagons, they say.

The migrants still wade across the Suchiate River between Guatemala and Mexico with little hindrance. Corruption is rampant. Soldiers and police officers on the Mexican side extort money from the migrants but seldom turn them around, aid workers and migrants said.

“It’s an open border,” said Francisco Aceves Verdugo, a supervisor in the government agency, Grupos Beta, that gives food, water and medicine to illegal migrants. “We are confronting a monster so big in the form of corruption that we aren’t doing anything.”

The federal authorities do catch and deport illegal immigrants from Central America on their trek north — about 170,000 last year, according to Leticia Rodríguez, a spokeswoman for the National Migration Institute.

On the evening of Jan. 19, as part of Mr. Calderón’s new get-tough policy, about 400 federal police officers stopped the freight train just after it left Arriaga and arrested more than 100 immigrants who had climbed aboard.

Still, aid workers say a majority gets through. The biggest deterrent, migrants say, is not federal authorities but armed thugs who waylay them along the railroad tracks or on paths through the countryside used to avoid the immigration posts along the main highway.

This month, Misael Mejía, 27, from Comayagua, Honduras, was awaiting the train in Arriaga with nine other young men from his town. They had walked for 11 days after wading across the Suchiate to get to the railhead in Arriaga.

None of them had a dime after being ambushed a week before by three men in ski masks in daylight near Huehuetán. Two of the men carried machetes, the third a machine gun.

“They told us to lay down and take off our clothes,” Mr. Mejía said. “I lost my watch, about 500 Honduran lempiras, and 40 Mexican pesos,” about $31.

Mr. Mejía said he would press on. He has a brother in Arizona who has promised to pick him up if he can run the gantlet through the United States border patrol. He left a $200-a-month job as a driver behind, along with his wife. His brother makes $700 a week as a carpenter.

“I felt hopeless in Honduras,” he said. “Because I could never afford a house, not even a car. There is nothing I could have.”

Down the street from the tracks, at the Hearth of Mercy shelter, where illegal immigrants can get a free hot meal and medicine, Juan Antonio Cruz, 16, hunched over a bowl of rice and told how he had left El Salvador after members of the Mara Salvatrucha street gang had threatened to kill him. “They wanted me to join them,” he said.

It was his second attempt to reach Arizona, he said. The first time he had endured eight freezing nights and sweltering days aboard the train by strapping his belt to bar atop a tanker car. The border patrol caught him as he crossed into Nogales, Ariz., and sent him back home to Usulután, where the gang members threatened him again.

“When I think about the train, I feel fear and panic, for the thieves who attack you, and also for falling off,” he said softly.

For some, that is how the dream ends, with a fall under the train’s heavy, whirring wheels.
=====

At the Shelter of Jesus the Good Pastor in Tapachula, Donar Antonio Ramírez Espinas rubbed the bandaged stumps of his legs, sheared off above the knee, as he recalled the night of March 26, 2004, when he dozed off while riding between cars, lost his grip and fell onto the tracks.


Map “I fell face down, and at first I didn’t think anything had happened,” he said. “When I turned over, I saw, I realized, that my feet didn’t really exist.”

Back in Honduras, he had been working menial jobs in a parking lot and at a medical warehouse, making about $120 a month. Then he and a few buddies decided to try their luck in the States.

“You make the decision to look for a better life, not to continue with the life your father led, and for this you risk your life, without knowing that you could end up like this,” he said. “An amputee.”

After the accident, he spent two years at the shelter in Tapachula, wrestling with depression and thoughts of suicide. When those black days finally passed, he returned home for five months, only to find his parents, his former wife and even his three children had trouble accepting his disability. “My 9-year-old said, ‘Papa, why did you come back like this?’ ” he remembered. “I didn’t dare answer him.”

Mr. Ramírez has returned to the shelter here, where he hopes to learn a trade — fashioning prosthetic legs and arms for other victims of the train. Others at the shelter told similar stories. Some doubted they would be able to make a living in their home countries, where even getting a wheelchair is hard.

But some of those with lesser injuries insisted their accident was just a temporary setback. Minor Estuardo Cortez, 33, from Guatemala, lost his left foot under a train wheel while climbing aboard in Oaxaca State. At the shelter, he has healed and learned to walk with a prosthetic foot. He intends to continue his journey. If he reaches Houston, he says, he has relatives who can get him a construction job.

“If something happens to me, I don’t scare easy,” he said. “I’ll do it again to see who wins, the train or me. Only thing is I can’t run, so I’ll have to wait until it’s stopped to get on.”

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on February 01, 2007, 02:37:09 PM
Hola a todos:

Una discupa por la tardanza en contestar :-D. La estrategia de pocisionar militares y lanzar ataques "frontales" al narcotrafico no es nueva, ha sido utilizada desde Zedillo (1994), es evidente que por el estado actual de las cosas que no funciona.

Coincido en que con la captura de su lider los zetas no estan destruidos, ya que es muy dificil terminar con un grupo organizado, donde cada miembro es potencialmente un lider y puede entrenar a mas personas casi al nivel de los zetas originales. Lo temible del primer grupo es que al ser parte de las GAFES (grupo aerotrasportado de fuerzas especiales), tenian una capacidad de fuego, movilidad, reaccion y de improvisacion muy superior a cualquier grupo gubernamental, incluso el ejercito; ademas de la elevada moral de combate y espiritu de grupo. Algo que he observado en cada cambio de gobierno en mexico es que necesita pactar con cierto cartel para conservar la gobernabilidad, muy al estilo de lo que retrata la pelicula Traffic (donde actua Benicio del Toro), en el actual estado del gobierno ademas de pactar necesita legitimarse y una cortina de humo para movilizar al ejercito sin sospechas de parte de la gente, y con la aprobacion del sector de la poblacion que interpreta orden como "estamos seguros porque hay muchos policias (y si es el ejercito mejor)"... en mi opinion, tambien  coincido con la militarizacion del pais, lo que esta  pasando en Oaxaca y la forma en como lo manejo el gobierno es un mal aviso de lo que puede pasar.

Un saludo a todos

Omar
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 05, 2007, 01:11:06 PM
Omar (y todos):

Un gusto tenerte aqui con nosotros de nuevo.

Lo siguiente habla de las mismas temas como tu-- auque sea en ingles  :oops:

CD
------------------
stratfor.com

Mexico: Violence Crossing the Line in Acapulco
Two Canadian tourists suffered minor injuries Feb. 4 when they were struck by stray bullets in an apparent drive-by shooting in Acapulco, Mexico. It was the second violent incident involving Canadian tourists in Acapulco in less than a month, though this time the incident occurred at a hotel. Violence, much of it related to drug wars, has been escalating in the Pacific coastal resort for some time -- and is now beginning to spread to the tourist sector.

The shooting occurred on the ground-level veranda of the Casa Inn Hotel on the main street in the city's tourist district, about half a block from the beach. The Casa Inn is a modest hotel that is popular with older tourists on a budget and college students on spring break. According to reports, the gunman appeared not to be shooting at the tourists, but rather was targeting another man who was walking in front of the hotel. Nonetheless, the incident further demonstrates that the city's growing lawlessness now directly affects foreign tourists. On Jan. 8, a Canadian teenager died after being involved in an incident outside an Acapulco nightclub. Local officials said the boy died in an auto accident, though another official alleged that he was struck by a car while fleeing the club's bouncers and local taxi drivers, who were beating him.

Aside from its popularity among Canadians and other foreign tourists, Acapulco is an entry point for drugs coming from Colombia for shipment to the United States. Because of its geographical importance, Mexico's rival drug cartels are vying for control of Acapulco, which caused violence to spike in 2006. The increase in violence, which has included several gruesome beheadings, forced Mexican President Felipe Calderon to deploy nearly 8,000 federal troops to Guerrero state in January. Although his efforts could have some initial success, they have little chance of stabilizing the situation over the long term, and could even incite more violence as the cartels test his resolve or try to defend their operations against federal troops. This happened in 2005 when then-President Vicente Fox sent a much smaller contingent of 200 troops to the city as part of a nationwide crackdown.

Although it is unclear whether this latest shooting was connected to Acapulco's drug-related violence, it does indicate that criminals no longer consider the once-peaceful tourist zone off limits -- and that the danger level is rising. Moreover, local police, who normally would react forcefully to incidents that can affect tourist revenue, appear quite unable to prevent the violence. As a result, some Canadians are pressuring Ottawa to update its standing travel advisory regarding Mexico, and slumping sales have caused a number of Canadian travel agencies to reduce or cancel package tours to Acapulco.

Acapulco's warring drug cartels -- whose concern is securing the flow of drugs into Mexico for transshipment to U.S. markets -- have little reason to avoid inflicting collateral damage on the city's tourist industry. With the winter tourist season in high gear and spring break crowds soon descending on the beach hotels, Acapulco's already weak law enforcement will have its hands full -- and cannot be counted on to keep the turf wars out of the tourist district.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 08, 2007, 04:37:40 PM
Global Market Brief: In Mexico, Calderon's Do-or-Die Task
February 08, 2007 20 21  GMT



Mexican President Felipe Calderon on Feb. 5 announced plans to revise and modernize the Mexican Constitution. Speaking at a ceremony commemorating the anniversary of Mexico's current constitution, Calderon established that, in order to make the Mexican system more flexible and efficient, he is seeking to renovate the charter outright instead of following the usual practice of making piecemeal reforms.

Though Calderon has not offered additional details as to how he intends to launch constitutional reform, the opposition Democratic Revolutionary Party -- the party of his chief election rival Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador -- currently supports the president's plans for a full redraft. That is, with one exception: that the changes do not include the privatization of the electricity sector or state-run oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex).

Although he entered office with a weak to nonexistent mandate, Calderon has done nearly everything right to solidify his position.

Calderon's first success occurred even before he took office -- a result of him (wisely) doing nothing. Between Calderon's election and inauguration, Lopez Obrador staged a constant series of strikes and protests that snarled political life throughout the country and economic life in Mexico City. Lopez Obrador's actions also had the twin side effects of alienating him from his own party and giving the Institutional Revolutionary Party and Calderon's National Action Party (PAN) something in common: annoyance with Lopez Obrador. All three major parties are now at the very least on speaking terms with one another, something that seemed impossible six months ago.

Among Calderon's first acts as president was moving decisively against anarchists in Oaxaca, restoring order to a city that had been embroiled in chaos for months. He also deployed regular army troops to a number of cities that either are under the de facto control of drug lords or are experiencing open battles among those drug lords for control. Neither problem has been resolved -- and will not be resolved under the current plan -- but there is a widely accepted perception at least that the problem is being addressed in a respectable way. The political capital Calderon has racked up for his efforts have strengthened his hand among his core supporters as well as Mexico's political center.

He also has departed from his ideological preferences to reach out to Mexico's left. For the past two months Mexico has suffered from a shortage of corn, partially as a result of the United States' newfound fascination with ethanol. As Americans become obsessed with establishing non-Middle East energy options, huge amounts of corn are being sucked into a growing ethanol industry. That growth has sucked Mexican corn across the border, resulting in higher food prices in Mexico -- particularly for corn tortillas, a defining staple of the Mexican diet. After first pledging his loyalty to market principles, Calderon correctly read the political winds and forced state stores to lower prices at the retail level while leaning on private bakeries to lower the wholesale price.

The net result of all this has been a surge in Calderon's popularity. As of Feb. 6 he stood at 58 percent approval across the political spectrum, making the president perhaps the most powerful leader Mexico has had in generations.

He will need that power for his chosen task.

Mexico, like many other developing economies, has found itself heavily dependent on a single commodity for its economic well-being: oil. Mexico's economic strength and social stability correlate closely with oil prices. Globalization and membership in the North American Free Trade Agreement have certainly helped Mexico's economy diversify away from such dependence, but oil monies remain the central factor in determining government spending -- currently making up about 40 percent of government income.

Yet Mexico's energy industry is failing. Roughly three-quarters of its oil output comes from a single field, Cantarell, which is now past maturity. Consequently, Mexico's oil output peaked at 3.8 million barrels per day in 2005, and is expected to decline incrementally for the foreseeable future. Specifically, the government now expects Cantarell to suffer a 14.5 percent reduction in output in 2007 alone. Mexico's reserves are similarly shrinking as the state has not invested sufficiently in fresh exploration efforts -- particularly in the technologically challenging and capital-intensive offshore.

Mexico faces two huge obstacles if it is to reverse this decline. First, the national government has to break its addiction to oil money. As long as Congress siphons off the bulk of state energy monopoly Pemex's revenues for its own use, Pemex will never be able to afford to invest in technology, exploration and fresh production.

Second, there needs to be a realization across Mexico that Pemex -- even with access to more money -- faces a challenge it cannot overcome alone. Pemex has been the government's cash cow for decades, and as such has never been able to catch up with the world's energy supermajors in terms of technical skill. Rectifying that problem is not a multi-year process, but a multi-decade one. And since Mexico does not have decades to fix the problem, Pemex itself has become the leading voice for diversifying the country's energy sector to allow for the participation of foreign firms (in a highly controlled way, of course).

That, to say the least, is a thorny issue. Just as social security reform is the third rail in U.S. politics, liberalizing the energy sector is Mexico's. Mexicans see their oil as a birthright, and have traditionally refused to even entertain the notion that any foreigner -- and particularly the Americans who import 85 percent of Mexico's exports -- should hold any interest in the energy complex. Because of this attitude, and the enormous powers within Pemex itself, Mexico has maintained full control of its energy -- but at the cost of both eroding oil output and creating a ball and chain on the Mexican economy. The constitutional prohibition against foreign and private involvement in energy covers not just oil, but natural gas and electricity as well. Mexico not only suffers from regular power crunches, but also is in the truly bizarre position of importing natural gas from the United States, despite its own generous reserves.

To alter this calculus, Calderon is arguing for a constitutional change, a monumental feat by any measure. Shifting constitutional language requires the approval of two-thirds of both houses of the national Congress, as well as majority support from more than half of Mexico's state assemblies. Calderon's PAN (hardly of one mind on the issue) boasts only 206 of the lower house's 500 seats and 52 seats of the upper house's 128.

Calderon's early political victories and personal ideology make him uniquely positioned to attempt to push through such an unpopular, yet desperately needed, provision -- despite the fact that he opened his presidency on such a weak note. Yet Calderon's self-set task is certainly of the make-or-break variety.

If Calderon can pull this off -- and it is a huge "if" -- he not only will regenerate Mexico's energy fortunes, but also will establish himself as one of the most powerful Mexican leaders in history. After all, if the president can bend the entire political spectrum to his will on an issue that enflames such core nationalist passions, there will be very little that he cannot do.

However, if he fails -- and this is a far smaller "if" -- he will have lost the political equivalent of a game of chicken with an oil tanker. And even should Calderon survive such a collision, he will have spent all of his hard-won political capital on a horrifyingly public defeat -- from which his administration will never recover.

stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 16, 2007, 11:38:15 AM
Mexico: The Looming Fight for Control of Matamoros?
Hundreds of Mexican soldiers briefly patrolled the streets of Ciudad Victoria, the capital of Tamaulipas state, Feb. 15 as part of the federal government's response to the seizure on the U.S.-Mexican border of a large weapons shipment that passed through the capital. The contents of the cache suggest an effort is under way to equip or reinforce a heavily armed unit of enforcers for one of Mexico's two main drug cartels. The cartels, in other words, appear to be gearing up to fight for ultimate control of Matamoros.

The Mexican attorney general's office announced Feb. 11 that a tractor-trailer containing weapons and an armored pickup was seized by the Mexican army in Matamoros, just south of the U.S. border at Brownsville, Texas. Among the weapons seized were 18 M-16 assault rifles, including at least one equipped with an M-203 40mm grenade launcher, and several M-4 carbines. Also recovered were 17 handguns of various calibers, more than 200 magazines for different weapons, more than 8,000 rounds of ammunition, assault vests and other military accessories. A Nissan Titan pickup truck outfitted with armor and bullet-proof glass also was inside the trailer.




The semi, which was registered in the United States, entered Matamoros from the south after having passed through both Ciudad Victoria and Valle Hermoso. It is unclear where the shipment originated, though it could have come from Central America, or even the United States along a circuitous route designed to avoid police roadblocks and other anti-smuggling measures. Putting soldiers on the streets of Ciudad Victoria, even for a few hours, might have been President Felipe Calderon's way of telling the cartels that authorities know what is going on there.

Matamoros, however, is where the real battle appears to be gearing up. Matamoros is in territory controlled by the Gulf cartel, the main rival of the powerful Sinaloa federation of cartels -- and it is possible the Gulf cartel's enforcers were attempting to prepare for an expected fight with the Sinaloa federation over control of the city's drug-smuggling operations.

One indication of this is the type of weapons and equipment seized. The identical assault vests, load-bearing equipment and other accessories, along with the standardized nature of the rifles -- exclusively variants of the M-16 -- indicate the shipment probably was meant to equip or reinforce a single heavily armed unit rather than an unorganized gang. Therefore, the Zetas -- former Mexican elite soldiers who work for the Gulf cartel as enforcers -- stand out as the mostly likely intended recipient of these weapons. Given their military background, the Zetas would want to have a high degree of standardization in the weapons and equipment they use, and they also would be more comfortable with M-16s, which are standard issue in the Mexican army.

Matamoros is a vital transshipment point, or "plaza," for the movement of drugs and other contraband into the United States from Mexico. From border towns like Matamoros that sit astride highways, high-ranking cartel members known as gatekeepers control the traffic of contraband across the border, collect payments from smugglers and oversee money-laundering operations for the cartels.

Gulf cartel leader Osiel Cardenas, who had run his operation from a Mexican prison since his 2003 arrest, was extradited to the United States in January, which could hinder his efforts to maintain control of the Matamoros region. The Sinaloa federation, then, might have decided to take advantage of the disruption in the Gulf cartel's command structure to make a play for the plaza at Matamoros.

Although Matamoros has not seen much cartel-related violence recently, that could change as the Zetas move to repel attempts by the Sinaloa federation to assert its influence in the city.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 08, 2007, 09:39:39 AM
Mexico: A Rise in Killings in Sonora State
March 07, 2007 18 57  GMT

Summary

Three police officers were killed March 6 in Mexico's Sonora state, the latest in a spate of drug-related slayings in this relatively quiet state. The rise in criminal activity is believed to be related to a campaign of intimidation by Mexico's drug cartels, but it could also indicate that rival cartels are moving into territory controlled by the Sinaloa federation.

Analysis

The body of a municipal police officer was found March 6 in a rural area near Hermosillo, the capital of Mexico's Sonora state. The officer, who had his hands and feet bound, had apparently been executed. A note left with the body says "the problem is not with the government" and lists the names of five other police officers. This could suggest that the officer had been an informant for the cartels and was killed by fellow officers. Later that day, a municipal police officer was shot and killed while patrolling Obregon Avenue in Cananea, near the U.S. border. The night before, an agent from the Sonora State Judicial Police was executed in the parking lot of Hermosillo's state attorney general's office.

Since the beginning of the year, crime has been on the rise in Sonora state. By late February, it was estimated that 15 executions had taken place in the state in 2007 and five had occurred during the last week, including the two in Hermosillo. This is well above the state's usual homicide rate. Almost all of the victims so far have been law enforcement officials.

The killings are believed to be a reaction to Mexican President Felipe Calderon's crackdown on drug cartel operations throughout Mexico. Sonora Gov. Jose Eduardo Robinson Bours Castelo, referring to the current situation as a "period of executions," has said the killings are part of the cartels' attempts to intimidate police and dissuade them from cooperating with Mexican federal authorities in the anti-cartel campaign.

Another explanation for the increase in violence in Sonora could be the movement into the state of members of various cartels escaping areas where Calderon's crackdowns are taking place. Organized crime in Sonora is controlled by a federation of drug cartels led by the Sinaloa cartel, which originated in Sinaloa state, which borders Sonora to the south. Sonora is important to the federation as a corridor for transporting drugs from Central and South America into the United States. While federal security efforts disrupt organized crime in other states -- such as Baja California, Tamaulipas, Michoacan -- areas with less federal presence, such as Sonora, could prove to be attractive cartel sanctuaries.

Despite the increase in violence in Sonora state, the threat to U.S. citizens visiting there remains minor. The main risk remains Sonora's notoriously hazardous roadways rather than the unlikely possibility of being caught in the crossfire between cartel and law enforcement personnel.

stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 12, 2007, 12:40:27 PM
Court Papers Show How 'Iron River' of Guns Flows Into Mexico

Monday , March 12, 2007

MESA, Ariz. —
Human and drug-smuggling organizations in Mexico are getting their guns from the same places law-abiding U.S. citizens are getting theirs: licensed gun dealers and gun shows, according to court documents.


"There's an iron river of guns flowing to Mexico," said special agent Thomas Mangan, spokesman for the Phoenix office of the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.

Search warrant affidavits show smugglers are getting guns from "straw purchasers," people with clean records who buy guns for smugglers, who then sneak them across the border for a few hundred dollars.  Records show the weaponry is bought from legitimate dealers in U.S. cities from Tucson to Scottsdale and Apache Junction to Avondale.

On Jan. 21, agents with the U.S. Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrested Cedric Lloyd Manuel and Miguel Apodaca of Phoenix with nine assault rifles at the Arizona-Mexico border.  The guns had been bought the day before at gun stores in Apache Junction, Scottsdale and Phoenix. They were purchased by three brothers, Lucio, Rosendo and Marcos Aguilar.  Between November and the Jan. 21 arrests at the border, the Aguilars and others in the straw-purchasing crew bought 66 assault rifles, records show.

"Manuel (Aguilar) stated that he had taken probably about 20 loads of firearms into Mexico over the past couple of months," ATF special agent Heidi Peterson wrote in the affidavit.  The Aguilar family, Manuel Apodaca and the alleged ringleader, Blas Bustamante, have been charged in U.S. District Court with gun violations.  Mangan said the value of guns triples across the border.

He said Mexican crime organizations use the same infrastructure for smuggling humans and drugs north as they do to move the guns south.
He said the agency is working on a number of Arizona gun trafficking investigations while they also work with Mexican authorities to trace guns used in crimes across the border.

One such crime was the shooting of Ramon Tacho Verdugo, the 49-year-old police chief of Agua Prieta, Sonora, who was gunned down as he left the police station Feb. 26.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 13, 2007, 06:31:45 AM
Geopolitical Diary: U.S.-Mexican Relations Changing

U.S. President George W. Bush is scheduled to meet with Mexican President Felipe Calderon on Tuesday in Mexico -- the last stop of Bush's Latin American tour. The agenda for the meeting is predictable; issues to be discussed include trade, security, counternarcotics programs and the polarizing immigration and border control debate.

Bush's trip has focused on political alliances, and his stop in Mexico is no different. Mexico has traditionally been an ally, but tensions have recently risen over border and immigration policies. Smoothing these tensions and reaffirming Mexico's long-term status as a U.S. ally is the driving motivation behind the U.S. president's visit.

However, though Bush is arriving in Mexico with a largely rhetorical agenda, his counterpart could meet him with a much stiffer proposition.

Since taking office in December 2006, Calderon has aggressively approached his presidency. His presidential campaign called for massive reforms, and he has wasted no time pursing them. He already has announced plans for a constitutional redraft and a controversial reform of Mexican state-run oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and already has launched a massive multistate offensive to counter narcotics trafficking. Though the attack against drug cartels has not severely impacted their operations, it has won Calderon domestic support; with recent approval ratings ranging from 58 percent to 73 percent, it is clear that Mexicans approve of Calderon's boldness. And since the Mexican government depends on oil money, Calderon desperately needs this approval to push through the Pemex reform.

Bush might not be prepared to meet with a bold Mexican president; former Mexican President Vicente Fox rarely challenged Bush and reveled in a close friendship with his U.S. counterpart. And while Calderon has not disparaged U.S.-Mexican ties, he has made it clear that he is not interested in helping to repair U.S.-Latin American relations, noting that the United States has to "regain respect" in the region.

Mexico has long demanded increased attention -- and a solution -- to the immigration debate. But a visit between Bush and Calderon will have little, if any, impact on the immigration front. Bush's hands are all but tied -- he faces an opposition Congress and a populace deeply divided on the issue at home -- and he is not in a position to settle the immigration issue, much less to do so in a way that Mexico would desire.

Calderon knows this as well as Bush does, and is not expecting a sudden shift in U.S. immigration and border policies. A breakthrough on the immigration front at this point is not plausible, but with this visit Calderon can earn himself a few more approval points at home.

Though Mexico's close relationship with the United States is not likely to change in the near future -- trade, security issues and proximity will tie the nations together indefinitely -- the Mexican government is no longer interested in pushing the U.S. agenda in Latin America. Calderon is ready to be an independent leader, and Bush could find him to be less of an ally than expected.

stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 19, 2007, 08:12:53 AM
Fly Me to Tijuana
By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY
March 19, 2007; Page A12

As President George Bush and President Felipe Calderón were meeting on the Yucatán Peninsula last week to discuss the disequilibrium in the North American labor market, a low-cost Mexican airline was celebrating its first anniversary 35 miles north of the capital in the city of Toluca. The presidential confab got the press, but the story of the new airline and others that have followed it in the domestic air travel industry is far more relevant to the future of Mexicans.

A big reason the Mexican economy is not growing fast enough to create the one million jobs per year it needs to satisfy its young work force -- and why migrants go north -- is a lack of competitiveness. Key sectors of the economy are controlled by monopolies; without consumer choice, prices are high, service is poor, the economy is inefficient and there is not much innovation.

Editorial Page columnist Mary O'Grady explains how an upstart low-fare airline is set to make traveling easier for many Mexicans.The international symbol for making a killing through monopoly privilege is now a Mexican, telecom tycoon Carlos Slim. Mr. Slim, who is the world's third-richest man, bought Teléfonos de México (Telmex) from the government in 1991 and was supposed to face competition in 1997. But he has famously used court injunctions and his own influence to block competitors and rake in a fortune. Telmex still controls 95% of the fixed-line market.

Mr. Slim's power play has cost the country dearly. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development notes in a recent report that Mexico has some of the highest telecom charges among OECD countries, and one of the lowest rates of telephony density. Its broadband prices are the highest in the OECD. In energy, transportation and cement -- vital components of the infrastructure -- a similar non-competitive environment impedes productivity growth and harms investment.

Mexicans have been discouraged by the slow pace of competition reform, but there are some glimmers of hope. The North American Free Trade Agreement brought competition to the retail sector and now the domestic airline industry is beginning to change.

For decades Mexicans had only two choices for domestic air travel, AeroMéxico and Mexicana Airlines. Both companies, once state-owned, were privatized in the 1990s, failed and were reabsorbed by the government. Mexicana has been privatized again.

Privatization did nothing to bring down sky-high airfares. Flying from Mexico City to Tijuana ran about $250, far above what most Mexicans could afford. Taking the bus costs about $80 and in 2005 bus companies carried some 250,000 passengers on the 33-hour trip.

Last year four business partners identified those tortured bus passengers -- and many other Mexicans who dared not venture from home on such grueling journeys -- as potential airline customers. They teamed up to launch Volaris Airlines.

It is no small irony that Mr. Slim is one of the four investors and another is television mogul Emilio Azcarraga, also known for his monopoly privileges. Their experience in Volaris shows that both are capable of competing if the regulatory environment demands it and there is money to be made. Former Finance Minister Pedro Aspe's Protego Discovery Fund owns another 25% of Volaris. The fourth investor is Roberto Kriete's Grupo Taca, which owns the Central American carrier Taca Airlines.

Competition drives innovation and Volaris proves the rule. The company came up with a number of creative solutions to problems that probably would not even been considered in a protected market.

Mr. Kriete told me by telephone from San Salvador that the economies of scale come from the decision to purchase identical planes. Volaris saves money because its mechanics and pilots are qualified to handle all planes and sourcing parts is uniform.

Mr. Aspe expanded on that point when I interviewed him in Mexico City two weeks ago, stressing the advantages of the brand-new Airbus A-319 fleet, which is more reliable and more fuel efficient than the industry average. The company also gains competitiveness, he said, with labor contracts that tie 50% of compensation to productivity. Another cost saver is the Toluca hub. Passengers traveling from Mexico City check in at what Mr. Aspe calls "the virtual terminal" in the northern suburb of Santa Fe and then travel 35 miles by bus, courtesy of Volaris, to Toluca's lower cost airport. Overhead costs are held down because 65% of reservations are made over the Internet and 20% are made through call centers.

Competition has put pricing pressure on traditional carriers but Mr. Kriete doesn't expect convergence. Volaris is "really a different product," targeting a different demographic. He says that some travelers are willing to pay more for business class and perks such as frequent flier miles but Volaris is going after price-sensitive flyers and people who never flew before.

At the time of its startup one year ago, Volaris had two planes and by the end of the year it had six. This year it says it will invest $560 million to add another eight. It is also doubling the number of cities it serves and adding a route between Tijuana and Los Cabos on the tip of the Baja Peninsula, which has the potential to capture the southern California market. The company expects to triple its sales this year.

The beauty of Volaris is the beauty of the market. Both the airline and its customers are happy and business is booming. Last year Volaris carried more than 922,000 passengers on almost 8,700 flights at less than half the price that the traditional carriers were charging prior to competition. Bus passengers bound for Tijuana from Mexico City who switched to Volaris paid $100 and shaved 30 hours off their travel time.

A number of other low-cost carriers such as Avolar, Interjet and Alma have also entered the field. According to airport operator OMA, domestic air travel was up 22% at its 13 airports last year thanks to the low-cost carrier business.

It is worth noting that the Volaris story is not entirely a free-market exercise. Mexico still limits foreign ownership in airlines to 25%. Also, Volaris took a subsidized loan from the International Finance Corporation, an arm of the World Bank that is engaged in promoting development in poor countries. It is highly doubtful that Mr. Slim and his partners needed government assistance but IFC bankers are always pushing money out the door and good capitalists don't turn down such offers.

Still, the lesson holds. If Mr. Calderón wants his legacy to be about curing low Mexican living standards, there is no better remedy than competition.

Write to O'Grady@wsj.com.

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 21, 2007, 05:35:33 PM
Mexico: The Cartel Responds to Calderon
Summary

Mexican President Felipe Calderon sent federal troops into the southern state of Tabasco on March 17, opening up the latest front in a crackdown on drug cartels Calderon initiated shortly after taking office in December 2006. Coming after recent intimidation efforts by criminal gangs operating in the area, the redeployment is part of a systematic effort to squeeze cartels -- and increases the likelihood of retaliatory violence.

Analysis

Mexican troops searched houses and manned roadblocks in the southern state of Tabasco on March 19 after Mexican president Felipe Calderon dispatched more than 300 members of the Federal Preventive Police (PFP), as well as army units, to Villahermosa, the Gulf Coast state's capital, March 17.

The deployment followed a spate of violence in the area attributed to drug cartels. Since then, the former chief of state police and four of his current or former subordinates, including three police commanders, were detained on suspicion of collaborating with drug cartels and of trying to assassinate the current state chief of police, who was wounded in the attempt.

The escalation in violence began after retired Gen. Francisco Fernandez assumed office as the state's police chief Jan. 1. Fernandez, who has led anti-drug units in the states of Chihuahua, Durango and Sinaloa, aggressively combated drug traffickers and was investigating police ties to trafficking organizations. Two months into his tenure, gunmen fired more than 150 shots at Fernandez's Suburban shortly after he left a Villahermosa hotel, killing his chauffer. On March 15, a severed head was found in the parking lot of the Tabasco state security offices in Villahermosa. Hours later, the headless body of an alleged police informant was found across Tabasco's southern state line with Chiapas.

Police are not organized criminal gangs' sole targets. A reporter for the newspaper Tabasco Hoy disappeared Jan. 20 after naming alleged local drug traffickers in an article. Other journalists in the state also have received threatening phone calls and notes.

Following these incidents, Calderon deployed federal troops, who took over the state police headquarters, seized weapons from the police and searched the complex for evidence of police complicity in the assassination attempt. Federal police also arrested Fernandez's predecessor, Juan Cano Torres, in the town of Centla and raided his ranches, where authorities allege cartel assassins were allowed to hide out.

The seizure of weapons from police was similar to a January operation in the northwestern Mexican city of Tijuana, where federal police disarmed 3,000 police for several weeks while they investigated whether the weapons were tied to criminal acts. This and other operations initiated by Calderon since he took office Dec. 1, 2006, have involved approximately 30,000 federal forces in states such as Michoacan, Guerrero and Tamaulipas. They have effectively pressured the cartels, but also have caused them to shift trafficking operations in search of areas under less scrutiny.

The increase in cartel activity in Tabasco appears to be the result of pressure on Gulf cartel operations elsewhere in the country. The Gulf cartel and its enforcement arm, Los Zetas, operate on Mexico's Gulf Coast from Tabasco and Veracruz states up to the outskirts of the Tamaulipas city of Matamoros on the U.S. border. Los Zetas have deposited severed heads in public areas as an intimidation tactic outside of this territory, notably in Michoacan state and the city of Acapulco in Guerrero state. Another of Los Zetas' calling cards is replacing the letter "S" with a "Z" in threat notes, a scare tactic now in use against Tabasco journalists.

Both the Gulf cartel and Sinaloa cartel-affiliated organizations use Michoacan and Guerrero to import drugs from South America before they are transported through Mexico to the U.S. border. Recent federal anti-drug operations have targeted both of these states. Calderon's latest initiatives, combined with U.S. efforts in the Gulf of Mexico, likely prompted the Gulf Cartel to expand their use of areas like Tabasco as transit corridors.

Drug cartels in Mexico have shown a proclivity to respond violently to law enforcement operations and the flexibility to shift operations when they come under government pressure. New fronts in the efforts to combat drug cartels will continue to emerge as cartels seek the path of least resistance. These organizations are too well-equipped and ruthless to brook much interference, however, meaning conflict will escalate whenever they are pushed into a corner.

The cartels' tendencies to fight back and shift their operations will continue to manifest themselves as Calderon's anti-drug efforts proceed. But for all of Calderon's anti-cartel efforts in his short time in office, he has yet to encroach into the Sinaloa cartel's strongholds as effectively as he has other cartels' turf -- suggesting this game has much more room to play out.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 11, 2007, 03:40:40 PM
George W. Bush went to the U.S.-Mexican frontier to highlight his proposal for immigration reform this week. But on the other side of the border, a different U.S.-Mexico issue is getting most of the headline ink.

Since taking office in December, Mexico's new President Felipe Calderón has launched an all-out assault against the nation's organized crime networks, which supply U.S. narcotics demand. Given the money to be made under prohibition, it's not surprising that the drug cartels are not yielding easily. Rather, they've been fighting back with increasingly extreme terror tactics and threatening to turn Mexico upside down.

The month of March was one of the bloodiest on record for the country's "war on drugs." According to the Dallas Morning News, more than 50 people were killed in drug violence in a single week -- and not in only in notoriously rough cities like Tijuana but in traditionally stable locales such as Monterrey in the state of Nuevo Leon, which saw the brutal killing of a police officer, a police commander and numerous civilians. April hasn't started off too well either. On Good Friday, a reporter for the Mexican television station Televisa, who had just finished a radio interview in Acapulco, was shot in the back three times and killed. According to Reuters, local Mexican media also reported 12 other execution-style killings in Mexico on Good Friday. The killers have grown more vicious in their messages to would-be snitches, leaving behind severed heads, corpses with ice picks driven through them and most recently a Veracruz victim who had been castrated.

It's worth noting that lowly policemen, hundreds of whom are reported to have been handing in resignations around the country, are not the only targets. Last month Mr. Calderón confirmed that he and his family have been receiving serious death threats since he launched his "war." Nevertheless, Mr. Calderón says he's not giving in and that the war could last longer than his six-year term. If so, it looks like an awful lot of Mexicans are going to die for the cause of stopping Americans from using drugs.

-- Mary Anastasia O'Grady
Opinion Journal, WSJ
Title: bajas en produccion de petroleo
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 12, 2007, 03:53:21 PM
MEXICO: Mexican President Felipe Calderon decreased Mexico's base commitment to supply oil to a proposed Central American oil refinery during the Plan Puebla Panama (PPP) meeting in Campeche, Mexico, on April 9-10. PPP is a regional integration and development initiative started by Calderon's predecessor, involving Mexico's nine southern states and Central American countries. Although the PPP meeting aimed to revitalize regional development, Calderon reduced Mexico's commitment from 230,000 to 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to declining production at Cantarell, the country's largest oil field. Panama, Costa Rica and Guatemala are vying to be selected as the site for the proposed refinery, which is to have a 360,000 bpd capacity; firms from China, India and Japan are bidding to build it. Calderon's reappraisal is a further indication that Mexican oil output is headed for a serious collapse if legal barriers to foreign cooperation in offshore exploration are not addressed soon. Furthermore, if Mexico cannot provide sufficient crude for the Central American refinery project, the project could become unviable.

stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 23, 2007, 02:44:19 PM
Mexico's Security Woes: A Brazen Attack and High-Speed Chase
Mexican authorities have asked for U.S. help in locating the surviving gunmen who killed a top anti-crime official in Durango state and then broke through three police roadblocks as they led law enforcement officers on a dramatic high-speed chase that spanned two northern states. The audacity of the gunmen involved in this latest attack -- one of many during the month of April -- suggests the drug cartels and other criminals are undeterred by President Felipe Calderon's anti-crime efforts.

The chase began April 21 after Sergio Munoz, commander of the Durango state anti-organized crime unit, was abducted by about a dozen heavily armed men riding in two pickup trucks as he left his home in the city of Durango. Units from Mexico's military and the attorney general's office pursued the suspects, who fled north toward neighboring Chihuahua state. A first shootout, which occurred at a roadblock about 50 miles north of Durango in the small town of Donato Guerra, left two police officers dead and one wounded. A second gunbattle occurred at a roadblock farther north, near the town of Rodeo, leaving one officer wounded.




The suspects finally ran into tough opposition in the town of Inde, some 250 miles north of the site of the kidnapping. At that roadblock, law enforcement agents killed three gunmen, forcing the others to separate -- but not before they dumped Munoz's body on the side of the road. From there, some of the suspects reportedly escaped on foot, while others continued north in a black Suburban sport utility vehicle to the town of Las Nieves, where two small airplanes were waiting to take them to an old airfield in Parral, just across the border in Chihuahua state.

Despite tracking the suspects by helicopter, authorities on the ground were unable to locate them after losing radio contact with the airborne units. Believing Munoz's kidnappers to be headed toward the U.S. border, Mexican officials have asked the United States for help locating them.

April has been another violent month in Mexico. Munoz was at least the second state police official to be killed this month, after Guerrero state Police Chief Ernesto Gutierrez Moreno was shot to death by four men wielding assault rifles while eating dinner in a Chilpancingo restaurant with his wife and son. Moreover, the deaths of at least 30 people in several Mexican states during the month have been attributed to the drug cartels or other organized crime syndicates. Assassinations, grenade attacks, shootouts -- with police and one another -- and attacks against journalists are becoming the norm -- despite President Felipe Calderon's campaign against the cartels. So far in 2007, at least 720 people have been killed in organized crime-related violence across the country. At this rate, the death toll associated with such violence will top the 2006 toll of more than 2,000.

One of the reasons for the high casualty count, especially within the law enforcement community, is that officers are being targeted regardless of which side of the law they stand on. For example, Munoz, who headed Durango's Unit Against Organized Crime under the National Civil Police, could have been on the payroll of one of the cartels and been taken out by a rival cartel. On the other hand, he might have been an honest police officer who refused to cooperate with the cartels -- and paid the price.

Either way, the brazen assault on a top law enforcement official illustrates that Munoz's abductors had little fear of Mexican law enforcement -- or of the consequences should they be caught. Calderon's anti-crime campaign, it appears, has a long way to go before it shows much progress.
Contact Us

stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 04, 2007, 12:37:25 PM
stratfor.com
The Burgeoning Extortion Racket along the U.S.-Mexico Border

U.S. authorities are investigating what appears to be a new extortion scheme that involves the threat of bodily harm to attorneys, bankers and their families in Laredo, Texas. This is yet another sign that the extortion racket is expanding and escalating along the U.S.-Mexico border. Left unchecked, this criminal activity could escalate into violence on the U.S. side, similar to what is occurring now south of the border.

Since mid-April, at least a dozen attorneys and an unknown number of bankers have received phone calls from a man threatening to harm them or their families unless money is paid immediately. The caller, who speaks with a Spanish (CD: Mexican?) accent, provides a significant amount of personal information about the targets, such as names, addresses, habits and the birthdates and schools of family members.

The caller then orders the targets to wire a certain amount of money to various Western Union offices in Mexico, threatening that "bad things" will happen if they fail to pay. The amount of the extortion demand is unclear, but the victims are given just 30 minutes to send the money. They are told that if the money is even one minute late, they and their families will suffer the consequences -- a tactic designed to prevent targets from thinking rationally, and thus to increase the chances that they will pay. The tactic apparently has worked, as some victims reportedly have complied with the demands and transferred money.

These calls are very similar to the virtual kidnapping
schemes that are common in Mexico. Both exploit the fear generated by the frequent kidnappings in Mexico and the violence that occurs on both sides of the border. While a typical kidnapping requires the victim to be housed and fed -- and thus usually requires a group of accomplices to successfully execute -- crimes of the virtual nature are cheap and easy to commit, requiring very little physical risk and infrastructure. In essence, this crime takes far less effort than one involving an actual kidnap victim.

It is unclear whether the calls in this latest scheme are originating from the United States or Mexico, and whether the scheme is being perpetrated by a lone criminal or an extortion ring. The tactics, however, are similar to other extortion schemes targeting business owners along the border. The targets of those schemes have had connections to both sides of the border, such as a Mexico resident who owns property in Texas. In one case, a Mexican business owner was shown evidence that the criminals threatening him had surveilled his home in Brownsville, Texas. Considering that bankers and lawyers are the targets of this latest scheme, it appears the extortionists are focusing on those who have the ability to pay higher sums than earlier victims.

In most extortion schemes, the problem often is more widespread than it appears on the surface because victims can be reluctant to involve law enforcement authorities on either side of the border for reasons that include distrust of authorities, fear of the consequences and a desire to avoid publicity. This reluctance already has been seen in cases involving trucking companies operating between the United States and Mexico. Evidence suggests that, when threatened with the hijacking of their shipments, many truckers have found it easier and less damaging to their bottom line to simply pay the criminals rather than involve the authorities.

Unlike in extortion cases involving truckers, or even small-business owners and shopkeepers, however, lawyers have better access to law enforcement assistance -- and are more likely to use it. By targeting this group, then, the extortionists appear fearless of law enforcement involvement. This is cause for concern, especially considering that the extortion payments are being directed to Mexico, where drug cartels and other criminals often have killed lawyers and judges. Having already demonstrated a disregard for the law -- and the attorneys who practice it -- these extortionists could progress to more violent means to influence them.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 10, 2007, 04:37:24 AM
stratfor.com

MEXICO: Michoacan Gov. Larazo Cardena Batel said in an interview with Excelsior that the Mexican army is the only force able to fight drug trafficking in Mexico. Batel cited a May 7 shootout, which involved soldiers killing four suspected drug smugglers in Apatzingan, Michoacan, as an example of the army's ability to combat criminal organizations. Batel also said violent organized crimes in the state have decreased as a result of military presence.
Title: Attacks on the Army
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 13, 2007, 02:45:37 AM
Mexican Drug Cartels: Targeting the Military
May 11, 2007 18 24  GMT



Suspected drug cartel enforcers killed two state police officers May 11 as the officers patrolled the town of Villahermosa in Mexico's Tabasco state. The attack occurred two days after a Mexican sailor was gunned down in the Pacific resort town of Ixtapa. Although attacks against police officers and their chiefs are becoming quite common in Mexico -- a response to President Felipe Calderon's efforts to crack down on the country's drug syndicates -- the cartels now are upping the stakes by targeting the Mexican military.

To some degree or another, the military always has been part of government efforts to stem the flow of drugs through Mexico and reduce the violence associated with cartel wars. Military personnel, however, historically have not been prime cartel targets. That appears to be changing as the cartels better infiltrate the military, learning who they can bribe, who they can intimidate and who they can eliminate when cooperation is not forthcoming.






In some cases, military units are being attacked when they enter cartel territory or interfere with the flow of drugs from South America to markets in the United States, though it also appears that individual officers are being targeted. In Ixtapa, the sailor -- the bodyguard of a navy commander -- died after suspected cartel members attacked a vehicle carrying several Mexican navy personnel. It is unclear what prompted the shooting, though the sailors and/or their commander could have been either on the side of Calderon's anti-cartel efforts or cooperating with a rival cartel.

Seven attacks against police and security forces in April resulted in the deaths of at least eight police officers, including the commander of the Durango state anti-organized crime unit and Guerrero state Police Chief Ernesto Gutierrez Moreno, who was shot to death while eating dinner with his wife and son at a restaurant in the capital, Chilpancingo. During the first week of May, three state or city police chiefs were killed, while a firefight between a Mexican army unit and suspected drug smugglers left five soldiers dead near Caracuaro, in Michoacan state.

On May 8, suspected cartel enforcers killed Eduardo Vidaurri Esquivel, a police detective in Monterrey, the capital of Nuevo Leon state. Vidaurri reportedly was the 19th police official to be killed in Nuevo Leon in 2007. A day later, in Guerrero state, gunmen disguised as members of the Federal Investigative Agency shot and killed Artemio Mejia Chavez, public security director in Chilpancingo, while he was on his way to the gym. In that attack, the gunmen acted friendly as they pulled up to Mejia's truck in several vehicles, then opened fire when Mejia went to greet them. The attack against the sailor in Ixtapa, also in Guerrero state, occurred later that night.

As the cartels find weaknesses in the military -- and make inroads into the system through bribery and intimidation -- soldiers and sailors will find themselves at as great a risk of attack as Mexican police. Military units that try to interfere with the movement of drugs through Mexico, and thus the cartels' revenues, will be attacked.

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 21, 2007, 11:34:46 PM
stratfor.com

Mexico: A Deteriorating Security Situation
May 21, 2007 22 26  GMT



Summary

About 150 state police officers in Mexico's northern Nuevo Leon state went on strike May 21, demanding higher salaries and more resources to fight organized crime, which has claimed the lives of six state police officers in the past four days. Given that drug cartels have increasingly targeted police, army and government personnel in response to a federal campaign to combat organized crime -- and are showing no signs of stopping -- the security situation in Mexico likely will continue deteriorating.

Analysis

About 150 state police officers in Mexico's northern Nuevo Leon state went on strike May 21, demanding higher salaries and more resources to fight organized crime, which has claimed the lives of six state police officers in the past four days. Reports indicate the strike temporarily left a large portion of downtown Monterrey with little to no police presence. City police officers filled in for the state police, who have reached a deal with the government and are scheduled to return to work May 22.

Mexico's drug cartels have increasingly targeted police, army and government personnel in response to a federal campaign to combat organized crime. As this campaign continues, Mexico probably will not be able to reduce violent drug-related crimes in the near future.






Although Mexico has become increasingly violent since the government began its crackdown on organized crime in December 2006, recent violence in the northern states of Nuevo Leon and Sonora has contributed significantly to the country's deteriorating security situation. In addition to the deaths of the six Nuevo Leon police officers in the last four days, threats against journalists have further strained state police forces. A group of about 30 newspaper and television reporters protested May 19 in front of a state government building, demanding greater protection after a TV cameraman and reporter reportedly were kidnapped by drug traffickers earlier in the month. Perhaps the most notorious incident occurred May 16 in the town of Cananea, in Sonora state, where 40-50 armed men abducted seven police officers and six civilians, later killing seven. The ensuing gunbattle with police brought the death toll to 23.

The federal response to such violence highlights the challenges Mexico's security forces face in combating organized crime. Despite a government move to send more than 300 federal and state police officers and army soldiers to the Cananea area, most of the attackers escaped. This increased police presence also did not prevent the May 17 targeted killing of Sonora Police Chief Pedro Cordova Herrera. In addition, the state government announced May 20 it would begin investigating all municipal police officers in Cananea for possible cartel links. This investigation highlights the fundamental corruption problem Mexico's security forces are battling as they continue to fight the cartels.

The recent wave of violence in Sonora and Nuevo Leon can be explained by geography; the states share borders with the United States, making them valuable to drug cartels and trafficking organizations that move narcotics and people across the border. But drug-related violence is on the rise throughout Mexico; according to the attorney general's office, Mexico saw an average of 225 crimes per day related to narcotics trafficking between Dec. 1, 2006, and March 31, 2007. This represents a 40 percent increase over the 2006 average of 159 deaths per day.

For now, the federal government still appears both able and willing to commit more troops and resources to President Felipe Calderon's campaign against organized crime. On May 21, Morelos was added to the list of states to which army soldiers have been deployed. But the effectiveness of federal troops is questionable in such operations, given that the Mexican army is primarily trained and deployed for disaster response. Hence, it seems the security situation in Mexico will continue to deteriorate.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: José Carballo on May 24, 2007, 03:49:10 PM
Primero que nada, hola a todos, justo hoy recibí mi nombre de usuario y contraseña para poder participar en el foro. No conozco a nadie en el foro, salvo a Mauricio. Mi nombre es José Carballo, empecé a entrenar en Enero de este año, un accidente me tiene fuera de circulación pero espero poder reincorporarme en junio.

Aprovecho este espacio para presentarme ya que mi trabajo es la seguridad y soy experto en protección ejecutiva, además leo bien en inglés y español y si alguien necesita alguna ayuda, no duden en pedirla.

Saludos.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 24, 2007, 04:07:00 PM
Hola Jose':

!Bienvenidos!

Lo que paso' aqui' es que una falla tecnologica borro' unos anos de hilos en este foro y pedimos la velocidad que teniamos.  Ahora se le hace falta al foro mucha contribucion en espanol y estoy reducido al contribuir muchas cosas en ingles.  Espero que sean de interes a personas como tu.

Tambien, que bueno que trabajes en proteccion ejecutivo.  Ojala que compartas con nosotros tu perspectiva aqui tanto como quieras.   Si quieres, comienza con tu ideas sobre lo que esta' diciendo Stratfor sobre la situacion en Mexico.  Segun ellos los narcotraficantes son creciendo en su potencia hasta que ahora son una verdadera amenaza al bienestar del ejericto y a la mera estado.

!La Aventura continua!
Crafty Dog

PD:  Agradezco cualquiera ayuda con mi espanol que me brinde.  :-)
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: José Carballo on May 24, 2007, 05:47:31 PM
Hola Marc, es un honor que personalmente me respondas, gracias y espero verte en México cuando vengas al seminario.

Respecto a los comentarios de Stratfor, difiero, el narco ha crecido en poder y ha pasado de controlar algunas plazas a controlar la mayor parte del territorio nacional, su control es a todos niveles ya que tienen practicamente como empleados a policias, personal de aduanas, aeropuertos y otros. La razón de tantos ataques a jefes policiacos es debido a los grupos de narcos que son enemigos entre si y luchan por el control, generalmente los asesinos de los policias son de algún grupo de narcos que no los tienen como empleados y los matan para enviar un mensaje a los que apoyan a esos grupos contrarios.
Por otro lado, los ataques al ejercito no significan que sean una amenaza al ejército, sino la reacción del narco al verse ellos amenazados en su bienestar y al ver disminuida su capacidad de operación con tanta presencia de fuerzas militares. En cuanto al país el narco si representa una severa amenaza ya que:
1. Se provoca una situación de inseguridad y de crimen que directamente provocan los diferentes grupos de narcos y sus luchas entre si y contra las autoridades
2. actualmente cuentan con grandes cantidades de droga (los grupos en Colombia les "pagan" con droga los servicios de acarreo de la misma a los Estados Unidos) por lo que cada vez en México es más fácil y más barato conseguir droga y esto representa un grave problema social y de salud
3. la situación entre los agricultores mexicanos es cada vez peor y muchos optan por ser también empleados de narcos o sembrar ellos mismos plantas de marihuana y amapola en vez de dedicarse a los cultivos tradicionales de alimentos que obviamente les redituan mucho menos ganancias.

No quisiera ahondar más por el momento, pero creo que todo esto da un panorama general de la situación actual.

Guau.....cias
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 25, 2007, 12:56:27 PM
Gracias Jose por su analyis/resumen de la situacion.

Veo en el pereiodico esa manana que Mexico sera' compartiendo con el gobierno Estadounidense lo que oiga en las llamadas hecho en Mexico.  Eso no se habra' visto hace unos pocos anos.



Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: José Carballo on May 25, 2007, 03:03:31 PM
Hola a Marc y a todos...

ya busqué tanto en el periodico de la Cd. de México (reforma) como en internet en CCN.com y no logré encontrar la noticia a la que te refieres. Sin embargo, yo te puedo decir que mi jefe anteriormente trabajó para la Procuraduria General de la República (General Attorney) y en verdad que desde hace muchos años se tiene mucha cooperación entre la DEA y la PGR. Aunque estoy consciente que algunas reglas que aplican aqui en México con los agentes de la DEA no tienen mucho sentido, como por ejemplo, no les permiten a ninguno usar armas, pero en cuestión de intervenciones telefónicas existen ya varios casos en que o se comparte la información o se comparte la tecnología, incluso algunas veces personal técnico de los Estados Unidos ha ayudado a intervenir conversaciones aqui en México.

Saludos
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 25, 2007, 03:39:30 PM

He aqui el articulo del Los Angeles Times, primera pagina:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico25may25,1,3049437.story?coll=la-headlines-world

Mexico to boost tapping of phones and e-mail with U.S. aid
Calderon is seeking to expand monitoring of drug gangs; Washington also may have access to the data.
By Sam Enriquez, Times Staff Writer
May 25, 2007

- LA PLAZA: News, observations and links about Latin America from Times correspondents
MEXICO CITY — Mexico is expanding its ability to tap telephone calls and e-mail using money from the U.S. government, a move that underlines how the country's conservative government is increasingly willing to cooperate with the United States on law enforcement.

The expansion comes as President Felipe Calderon is pushing to amend the Mexican Constitution to allow officials to tap phones without a judge's approval in some cases. Calderon argues that the government needs the authority to combat drug gangs, which have killed hundreds of people this year.

Mexican authorities for years have been able to wiretap most telephone conversations and tap into e-mail, but the new $3-million Communications Intercept System being installed by Mexico's Federal Investigative Agency will expand their reach.

The system will allow authorities to track cellphone users as they travel, according to contract specifications. It includes extensive storage capacity and will allow authorities to identify callers by voice. The system, scheduled to begin operation this month, was paid for by the U.S. State Department and sold by Verint Systems Inc., a politically well-connected firm based in Melville, N.Y., that specializes in electronic surveillance.

Although information about the system is publicly available, the matter has drawn little attention so far in the United States or Mexico. The modernization program is described in U.S. government documents, including the contract specifications, reviewed by The Times.

They suggest that Washington could have access to information derived from the surveillance. Officials of both governments declined to comment on that possibility.

"It is a government of Mexico operation funded by the U.S.," said Susan Pittman, of the State Department's Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs. Queries should be directed to the Mexican government, she said.

Calderon's office declined to comment.

But the contract specifications say the system is designed to allow both governments to "disseminate timely and accurate, actionable information to each country's respective federal, state, local, private and international partners."

Calderon has been lobbying for more authority to use electronic surveillance against drug violence, which has threatened his ability to govern. Despite federal troops posted in nine Mexican states, the violence continues as rival smugglers fight over shipping routes to the U.S.-Mexico border, as well as for control of Mexican port cities and inland marijuana and poppy growing regions.

Nonetheless, the prospect of U.S. involvement in surveillance could be extremely sensitive in Mexico, where the United States historically has been viewed by many as a bullying and intrusive neighbor. U.S. government agents working in Mexico maintain a low profile to spare their government hosts any political fallout.

It's unclear how broad a net the new surveillance system will cast: Mexicans speak regularly by phone, for example, with millions of relatives living in the U.S. Those conversations appear to be fair game for both governments.

Legal experts say that prosecutors with access to Mexican wiretaps could use the information in U.S. courts. U.S. Supreme Court decisions have held that 4th Amendment protections against illegal wiretaps do not apply outside the United States, particularly if the surveillance is conducted by another country, Georgetown University law professor David Cole said.

Mexico's telecommunications monopoly, Telmex, controlled by Carlos Slim Helu, the world's second-wealthiest individual, has not received official notice of the new system, which will intercept its electronic signals, a spokeswoman said this week.

"Telmex is a firm that always complies with laws and rules set by the Mexican government," she said.

Calderon recently asked Mexico's Congress to amend the country's constitution and allow federal prosecutors free rein to conduct searches and secretly record conversations among people suspected of what the government defines as serious crimes.

His proposal would eliminate the current legal requirement that prosecutors gain approval from a judge before installing any wiretap, the vetting process that will for now govern use of the new system's intercepts. Calderon says the legal changes are needed to turn the tide in the battle against the drug gangs.

"The purpose is to create swift investigative measures against organized crime," Calderon wrote senators when introducing his proposed constitutional amendments in March. "At times, turning to judicial authorities hinders or makes investigations impossible."

But others argued that the proposed changes would undermine constitutional protections and open the door to the type of domestic spying that has plagued many Latin American countries. Colombian President Alvaro Uribe last week ousted a dozen generals, including the head of intelligence, after police were found to be wiretapping public figures, including members of his government.

"Calderon's proposal is limited to 'urgent cases' and organized crime, but the problem is that when the judiciary has been put out of the loop, the attorney general can basically decide these however he wants to," said John Ackerman, a law professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. "Without the intervention of a judge, the door swings wide open to widespread abuse of basic civil liberties."

The proposal is being considered by a panel of the Mexican Senate. It is strongly opposed by members of the leftist Democratic Revolution Party. Members of Calderon's National Action Party have been lobbying senators from the former ruling party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, for support.

Renato Sales, a former deputy prosecutor for Mexico City, said Calderon's desire to expand federal policing powers to combat organized crime was parallel to the Bush administration's use of a secret wiretapping program to fight terrorism.

"Suddenly anyone suspected of organized crime is presumed guilty and treated as someone without any constitutional rights," said Sales, now a law professor at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico. "And who will determine who is an organized crime suspect? The state will."

Federal lawmaker Cesar Octavio Camacho, president of the justice and human rights commission in the lower house of Congress, said he too worried about prosecutorial abuse.

"Although the proposal stems from the president's noble intention of efficiently fighting organized crime," he said, "the remedy seems worse than the problem."

*


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
sam.enriquez@latimes.com

Carlos Martínez and Cecilia Sánchez of The Times' Mexico City Bureau and Times staff writer Henry Weinstein in Los Angeles contributed to this report.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 26, 2007, 04:14:35 AM
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-soldiers26may26,1,2186023.story?coll=la-headlines-world

LA Times
Mexico's drug war takes toll on army
Since December, 89 soldiers have been reported killed. They're among 1,000 narcotics-related deaths this year.
By Carlos Martinez and Sam Enriquez, Times Staff Writers
May 26, 2007


MEXICO CITY — The number of Mexican soldiers slain has jumped dramatically since President Felipe Calderon began using the army to battle drug traffickers, records show.

Since December, when Calderon began the campaign, 89 soldiers have been reported killed, compared with less than a dozen from January through November of 2006, according to army records provided to The Times.

The escalation of attacks on soldiers has come as 12,700 troops man roadside checkpoints and patrol cities in nine Mexican states where rival drug gangs battle for control of ports, roads and other smuggling routes.

The Mexican army reported that troops slain since December included 27 soldiers on duty and 37 off duty. The circumstances of 25 more deaths remain under investigation.

Calderon dispatched the army, along with several thousand federal police officers, shortly after taking office because of concerns that incompetence and corruption had hampered local and state police and judges in combating well-financed drug gangs.

More than 2,000 killings last year were reportedly drug-related.

The killings of troops include the ambush of five men, including a colonel, in Michoacan state this month. In April, authorities found the bodies of three soldiers bearing signs of torture. A message next to the bodies said, "Whoever gets involved will die."

The troop deaths are among more than 1,000 killings so far this year attributed to drug violence, according to tallies by Mexican newspapers. The government doesn't keep an official count.

Calderon's failure to slow the violence has drawn criticism from opposition parties, which have called on him to revise his military strategy. The president said Thursday during a speech in the state of Durango that he was not ready to change course.

"Organized crime wants to scare the Mexican people," Calderon said. "It wants to scare the Mexican people so that the government crosses its arms and they go unpunished. They want us to retreat…. Our stance is clear: not a step backward."

Army salaries have gone up slightly, but pay for the lowest ranks begins at about $2,460 a year, plus room, board, uniforms and medical care. Generals are paid between $8,000 and $10,000 a year.

The government pays the funeral expenses of slain soldiers and also provides a lump sum equal to 40 months' pay to their immediate families.

The families also continue to collect the monthly salaries of slain soldiers and are entitled to full medical coverage at military hospitals and clinics, as well as discounts at three luxury hotel chains.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 08, 2007, 10:18:09 PM
Lamento que otra vez lo siguiente sea en ingles, pero nadie esta' "posting" (?Como se dice "to post"?) en espanol.
===============

In Mexico drug traffickers silence media

Chris Hawley and Sean Holstege
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 8, 2007 12:00 AM

MEXICO CITY

When hand grenades began exploding outside its subsidiary in Sonora state,
the largest newspaper chain in Mexico decided to throw in the towel.

"For the good of all, I recognize the imperative need to make this painful
and difficult decision and announce the temporary closure of the Cambio
Sonora newspaper," Mario Vázquez Raña, president of Organización Editorial
Mexicana, told readers in a letter.

That was two weeks ago. The newspaper has not published since.

Across Mexico, a tide of drug-related violence is silencing journalists, one
of the few institutions that people still trust in this country racked by
police and judicial corruption.

Mexico was the deadliest country for journalists after Iraq in 2006, with
nine dead and three missing, according to the Reporters Without Borders
watchdog group.

The numbers of attacks have been rising since 2003, as reporters are
snatched from the street by armed men in SUVs or gunned down as they leave
their offices. Just in the past month, a reporter and cameraman disappeared,
another reporter received death threats and a newspaper office was attacked.

The repression is hampering anti-crime efforts and threatening to destroy
Mexico's free press, which had just begun to flourish after decades of
control by the Mexican government, some journalists say.

"Before, the repression was political. Now, it's coming from organized
crime, and it's targeting the very lives of journalists, " said Adela
Navarro
Bello, publisher of the Zeta newsmagazine in Tijuana.

In some cases, attackers seem to be punishing reporters for specific
articles identifying drug-smuggling and other suspects. But other attacks,
like the Cambio Sonora grenades, seem to be aimed simply at sowing fear
among the news media, said Reporters Without Borders, which interviewed
reporters for its annual report.

"Journalists on the border were telling us they were afraid to write about
local crimes," said Lucie Morillon, Washington director for the group. "If
you know the mayor or a powerful politician is linked to drug traffickers
and you've just had a baby, you won't write that story."

Newsroom fear

In drug hotspots, many newspapers no longer write about drug-related crime.
Others bury news of shootouts and murders deep in the newspaper.

Nuevo Laredo's El Mañana newspaper stopped covering drug-related crimes
after a Feb. 6, 2006, attack on its offices with grenades and assault
rifles. Editors now review every crime story to see if it is safe to print,
editor Ricardo Garza said.

At Cambio Sonora, editors had stopped assigning drug-related investigative
articles more than a year ago, editor Roberto Gutiérrez said.

El Imparcial, the most prestigious newspaper in Sonora, cut back on its
drug-crime reporting after one of its reporters, Alfredo Jiménez,
disappeared in 2005. Now, the newspaper won't even talk about the issue.

In the past year, there have been at least 30 attacks, threats or attempts
to silence journalists or their employers, according to an analysis by The
Republic. And the incidents are getting closer to the Arizona border.

On April 16, gunmen killed Saúl Martínez, a reporter for the Interdiario
newspaper in Agua Prieta, just across the border from Douglas. Police said
he may have been involved in drug smuggling, a charge his family fiercely
denies.

Also in April, reporters in San Luis Río Colorado, near Yuma, filed a police
complaint alleging that lawyers for an drug-trafficking suspect were
pressuring them to change testimony about the 1997 death of a fellow
journalist.

The attackers have been picking increasingly high-profile targets.

On April 6, gunmen killed Amado Ramírez, correspondent in Acapulco for
Mexico's No. 1 television network, Televisa. On May 10, they abducted
popular television reporter Gamaliel López Candanosa and his cameraman in
Monterrey, Mexico's third-largest city.

Since 1994, 15 reporters have been confirmed killed because of their work,
according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. The only conviction came
12 years ago, and only five cases resulted in arrests.

A main reason is that murder is not a federal offense under Mexican law and
state investigators often lack the tools or desire to hunt down journalists'
killers.

When journalist killings began to accelerate last year, the Mexican
government created an Office of the Special Prosecutor for Crimes Against
Journalists to handle such cases. But of 152 complaints investigated by the
office, only two have gone to court, special prosecutor Octavio Orellana
told La Jornada newspaper on May 16.

"More than a year has passed with no results. They haven't broken that cycle
of impunity," said Carlos Luria, Americas program coordinator for the
Committee to Protect Journalists.

Setback for democracy

Press watchdog groups say the pressure comes at a critical time, as Mexican
journalists were becoming more independent and aggressive after decades of
government control.

Until democratic reforms in the 1990s, Mexican presidents pressured the
media by controlling the flow of government advertising, manipulating unions
allied with the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or cutting off
newspapers' paper supply through the state-run newsprint monopoly,
Productora y Importadora de Papel S.A.

Mexicans now trust the mass media more than they trust President Felipe
Calderón, the Supreme Court, the police and nearly every other institution
in Mexico, according to a February poll by the Mitofsky consulting company.
Only universities, the Roman Catholic Church, the army and the National
Commission on Human Rights ranked higher.

Watchdog groups say the attacks on journalists are crippling Calderón's
recent efforts to crack down on drug crime in Tijuana, Nuevo Laredo,
Monterrey, Michoacán state and other hotspots.

Police corruption in these places is rampant, and journalists are often the
only source of solid information about drug lords.

"The drug traffickers are getting rid of people who tell the Mexican people
the truth, who keep them informed." Morillon said.

"You can't solve the drug problem if you don't have the proper information.
"

Failing to address the drug problem will lead to more violence, she and
others said.

"It will be a very unstable situation and very dangerous, "Morillon said.
"It's terrible for Mexican civil society, and that will affect the border
states."

Silencing a giant

The May 24 closure of Cambio Sonora showed that even Mexico's biggest
newspaper chain could be brought to heel, analysts say.

"This goes beyond violence to the press," Lauria said. "It's limiting the
ability of Mexicans to communicate with each other."

Organización Editorial Mexicana, known as OEM, claims to be Latin America's
biggest newspaper chain, with 70 daily papers.

Gannett Co., which owns The Republic, has 102 daily newspapers.OEM also owns
24 radio stations, and Vázquez Raña, the company's president, briefly owned
the U.S. news agency United Press International in the 1980s.

Grenade attacks

The company's decision to close Cambio Sonora came after grenades exploded
in the newspaper's parking lot on April 17 and May 16.

The second grenade narrowly missed a reporter who was coming out of the
office. That attack came the same day as a confrontation between police and
drug smugglers that killed 23 people in northeastern Sonora.

OEM said it closed the newspaper because the Sonoran authorities ignored the
company's calls to put police around its office and failed to find the
perpetrators.

The company said that it did not believe the move showed weakness and hoped
that the closure would force the Sonoran government to take action.

"The very fact that we are such a large and strong chain should prevent
people from seeing this as a sign of weakness," company Vice President
Eduardo Andrade said.

"What we are hoping is that this will make everyone reflect on the
responsibility of the authorities to provide security."

Sonoran Gov. Eduardo Bours said detectives are doing their best to find the
attackers and accused the company of overreacting.

"The two grenades are regrettable, no doubt about it, and I'm not saying
they aren't regrettable, " Bours told reporters at a May 28 news conference.
"But the reaction seems extremely strange to me, to say the least."

Newspaper officials still don't know the motive for the attacks. Cambio
Sonora had not published any investigative articles recently, said
Gutiérrez, the newspaper's editor.

"We don't have the slightest idea what the attacks were about," he told The
Republic shortly before the paper closed.

The newspaper had already taken precautions to protect its reporters after
the disappearance of El Imparcial's Jiménez, he said.

Crime stories ran without bylines, and the newspaper had struck a deal not
to run investigative pieces unless all newspapers in the region published
them simultaneously.

Andrade said the newspaper's reporters will continue to be paid during the
paper's closure.

"It's worrying how they have managed to intimidate these media," said
Navarro, the publisher of Zeta.

"It's getting more serious and more widespread.

"We've lost media in the northwest of the country and some in the center and
others. We're just going to keep doing our job and hope these gloomy
statistics end."
Title: WSJ: Un reto a los monopolios
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 12, 2007, 07:21:22 PM
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/8_0004.html?bcpid=86195573&bclid=212338097&bctid=987396053

Una entrevista en ingles con una periodista bien informada sobre Latinoamerica
Title: El excremento continua pegando al ventilador , , ,
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 15, 2007, 01:41:22 PM
stratfor.com

Mexico: The Growing Risk to Businesses
Two days after the targeted killing of Nuevo Leon state legislator Mario Cesar Rios Gutierrez in Mexico's northern industrial city of Monterrey, Public Security Secretary Genaro Garcia Luna said June 14 he will send 1,600 Federal Preventive Police officers to the city. The move is aimed at reinforcing the Mexican army soldiers who have been patrolling Monterrey since state police walked off the job May 21 to protest an increase in officer killings by drug cartels. The increased security presence could return a measure of stability to the once-peaceful state capital, though that might only push the violence elsewhere.

Although crime-related violence is not uncommon in Mexico, the trend toward gratuitous and extreme violence is growing. Moreover, serious crime and bloodshed are now being seen in areas that historically have been calm, such as Monterrey and other areas of the country. This means U.S. citizens living and traveling in Mexico -- as well as the many U.S. companies operating there -- face more risk than ever before. While the already dangerous security situation continues to deteriorate, an uptick in the number of attacks against multinational corporations can be expected.

The June 12 robbery at a U.S. electronics company's warehouse near Mexico City highlights this threat. In that case, a large group of armed men stole two full semi-trailers of electronics after having assaulted the security guards, secured all the employees on site and ordered the workers to report that things were running smoothly. Company officials suspect the perpetrators conducted extensive pre-operational surveillance on the facility, though it also appears likely that someone on the inside cooperated with the robbers.

One of the problems is that the cartel wars are occupying more and more police and federal resources. Another fundamental problem is that the cartels exercise de facto control over large portions of the country. Maintaining this control includes, in many cases, buying off police and government officials at all levels of government, as demonstrated by the June 14 indictment of four former top police officials in Tabasco state on charges brought by a special prosecutor's office on organized crime. Police officers not receiving bribes to cooperate with a cartel risk being killed, while those on a cartel's payroll risk being killed by a rival gang.

This kind of environment is leading to a situation in which crime in general can flourish. As a result, heists at commercial enterprises, with electronics and pharmaceuticals at greatest risk, can be expected to increase.

These problems are not new for Mexico, but as the federal government continues to crack down on organized crime, the drug gangs will continue to respond -- and the violence will soar. Problems like widespread corruption only mean that police and army efforts will continue to fall short. The one bright spot is that Mexicans overwhelmingly support Mexican President Felipe Calderon's efforts against the cartels. A recent poll published by Mexico City daily Reforma indicates that 83 percent of respondents support Calderon's use of the army in the fight against organized crime.

While the federal security presence increases in Monterrey, the cartels could move on to other areas of Mexico -- and then combat troops will be needed in those places as well.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on June 20, 2007, 02:03:18 PM
Hola a todos :-D, la última vez que hable sobre las elecciones y el conflicto posterior a ellas, cerré mi comentario con la frase -ya veríamos dentro de tres años-. Sin embargo no tuvimos que esperar tres años y aprovecho para compartir con todos algunos hechos del presente gobierno en México, aprovechando los mismos para contrastar con los comentario de Raul Tortolero, en relación con estos mismos temas.

Añoradores de la violencia.
Acuérdense que las marchas bloqueos, mítines y huelgas en general es la forma histórica en como las personas afectadas por las decisiones de una autoridad responden, es decir no son formas de agravio sino de defensa. Personalmente recorrí muchas veces (en diferentes horas del día y la noche), el plantón de zócalo-reforma, nunca vi expresiones de violencia contra los automovilistas o los que cruzaban a pie (porque a diferencia del bloqueo de la PFP al Congreso, en el de reforma la gente podía caminar libremente por ahí además los cruces principales estaban abiertos al paso de los automóviles), en cambio observe un activismo muy creativo, animo de informar a las personas sobre lo que pasaba y porque estaban en ese sitio. Las actividades eran de lo más variadas: juegos de ajedrez, radio comunitaria, proyección de videos, talleres de lectura, conferencias de los mas diversos temas (y con intelectuales de renombre como Lorenzo Meyer), se hacían cortes de pelo por una módica cooperación, había juegos mecánicos, se organizaban relampagueantes torneos de futbol, se hacían los mas variados guisos y se invitaba a la gente a comer ahí. Quienes portaban los estandartes de Lenin y de Stalin solo era una carpa situada en el lado NE de la plancha del zócalo, la cual permaneció ahí hasta hace unos meses (pertenecía a la APO de Oaxaca) y no tenia nada que ver con la protesta de la gente por el fraude del 2 de julio; además las personas que se dicen “leninistas-stalinistas-marxistas”•desprecian y jamás participan en este tipo de movimientos de protesta por considerarlo de “carácter burgués”. Quien si denota una inclinación por políticas de tipo represiva y de control es el actual presidente Calderón, quien siendo un presidente civil (aún en su carácter de general supremo del ejercito mexicano), se vistió parcial y desmañadamente como soldado: con una chaqueta y gorra militar. Todavía me pregunto ¿que mensaje nos dio? Presidentes como De Gaule o Tito en el pasado; o Chávez, Castro, Hussein, incluso el presidente Bush han vestido uniformes de militar, los primeros efectivamente por su formación y el ultimo por ser veterano de la guerra de Vietnam; pero el de México, ¿que pretensiones militaristas nos quiere expresar? Ni siquiera el general Cárdenas volvió a vestir el uniforme militar después de tomar la envestidura de presidente.

López Obrador a pesar de su aparente lenguaje agresivo, desde las concentraciones por su desafuero y durante las posteriores a la elección; mostró la responsabilidad y el respeto por la integridad de la gente que lo acompañaba, por ejemplo, en el discurso previo a su comparecencia ante el congreso, concluyó su discurso con esta frase: -se que quieren acompañarme y se los agradezco, pero les pido que permanezcan en este sitio y sigan los acontecimientos por las pantallas que hemos instalado- Durante el mitin el 1º de septiembre, termino su mensaje diciendo: –nosotros vamos a permanecer aquí, que se queden con sus tanquetas y su ejercito en San Lázaro- El 1º de diciembre cerró su intervención así: -nuestro movimiento es pacifico y de dignidad nacionalista, vamos a marchar rumbo al Auditorio Nacional, pero les pido: ni un solo cristal roto, ni paredes grafiteadas... si sufrimos alguna provocación, nos sentaremos en el suelo y no ofreceremos ninguna resistencia; recuerden que la policía también es integrante del pueblo y no son nuestros enemigos-

Campaña de inestabilidad en México e intervención en política interior mexicana
Seguí muy de cerca la campaña de Marcelo Ebrard en la zona donde vivo, los actos masivos en la ciudad y en las reuniones de organización: efectivamente se organizaron redes ciudadanas pero nunca vi material de nada relacionado con el presidente Chávez o su gobierno. Sin embargo lo que si está documentado hasta en los medios de comunicación más conservadores fue la presencia y conferencias del ex presidente español José Ma Asnar (apenas hace unos días visito de nuevo a Calderón en los Pinos), apoyando abiertamente al candidato del PAN. También el semanario Proceso difundió un articulo sobre la participación del mercadologo estadounidense Dick Morris en la campaña del candidato panista, en el articulo decía: -el éxito de las campañas organizadas por Morris radica en una agresiva campaña en contra del candidato a vencer, a través de los medios de comunicación, como se comprueba en el slogan que diseñó en contra del candidato de la coalición por el bien de todos: López Obrador es un peligro para México-. En el mismo artículo concluía: -pese a que cualquier candidato que contrata a Morris triunfa, el lado negativo de su estrategia es la gran polarización social que provocan este tipo de campañas y el hecho de descalificar al adversario pero nunca dar datos concretos sobre la veracidad de sus afirmaciones-.

En lo referente a los “insultos” del presidente Chávez a “los mexicanos”, el periódico La Jornada hizo un balance al término de la administración foxista y en el tema de política exterior mencionaba: -el sexenio de Fox se distinguió por el nulo crecimiento en relaciones exteriores y por una política exterior torpe que originó sucesivos conflictos con varios gobiernos latinoamericanos... parece que toda su atención se centro en agradar al presidente Bush, el cual, a partir delos sucesos del 11 de septiembre le dio la espalda-. Las expresiones –México necesita- -lo que requiere México-, -ofende a México-, son comentarios tramposos de los medios de comunicación para involucrar en un problema o una acción, a personas o grupos que en realidad no son afectados. Con esto en mente: ¿los comentarios del presidente Chávez se dirigían a los mexicanos o solo a su presidente? Lo que dijo Fox sobre Chávez o la posición que tomo respecto a Cuba ¿eran las pociones y opiniones de el y su gabinete o las de la mayoría de los mexicanos?

Izquierda moderada e ideología
No entiendo de donde surge la fama de socialista de López Obrador? Su discurso es de lo más moderado de América latina, el problema es que esta enmarcado en una ideología republicana nacionalista, ¿donde está lo revolucionario o socialista en dicha postura? Por desgracia la mayoría de las personas no tiene una referencia histórica objetiva y no esta en la capacidad de comparar a los actores políticos modernos con determinada figura histórica. Nadie con “ideología socialista” se vincularía con “el monopolista” y tercer hombre más rico de la tierra, Carlos Slim o con el representante del “opio del pueblo”, el Cardenal Rivera, dos cosas que López Obrador realizó en su época de mayor popularidad como gobernante de la ciudad de México. La táctica seguida por López Obrador después de las elecciones y el hecho ser reconocido a través de una Convención Nacional como presidente legitimo es totalmente legal. En los manuales usados por el Instituto Federal Electoral de 1999 a 2003, se habla que los ciudadanos pueden organizarse en una fuerza opositora (fuera de un partido político), para que sirvan de contrapeso a las políticas publicas del gobierno, que consideren -contrarias al interés público-, en ese mismo manual menciona que además de utilizar las marchas y protestas sociales; -es deseable que envíen propuestas de leyes (o modificaciones a las mismas), a sus respectivos representantes en la cámara de diputados y senadores-. En otro capitulo de los mismos manuales señala la necesidad, de que ese “contrapeso” tenga voz en los medios de comunicación a fin de –generar una opinión pública objetiva y crítica-. Tomando en cuenta lo anterior: ¿qué importa que dicha organización se llame “gobierno legítimo”?, ¿que su líder se le conozca como “presidente legítimo”? o ¿qué el consejo directivo se le llame “gabinete”? De todas formas no interrumpe en nada la marcha normal del país o ejerce ningún presupuesto. Lo que hace es servir de contrapeso al actual gobierno a través de giras informativas, comunicados de prensa, marchas, denuncias e iniciativas de ley alternas. Recuerden que posterior a la elección de 1988 Manuel Cloutier el candidato panista a la presidencia de la república, organizo la marcha nacional por la democracia que concluyó en la creación de un gobierno legitimo, en cuyo gabinete se encontraba como secretario de agricultura al mismísimo ex presidente Fox, dicha acción de resistencia solo duro cerca de dos meses y le mereció el calificativo en la prensa progresista de: -digna y valiente lucha a favor de la democracia-. Precisamente en los tiempos en que el panismo recurría a las mismas tácticas que hoy reprueba, específicamente durante el conflicto posterior a la elección de gobernador en el estado de Guanajuato, una vez mas el ex presidente Fox utilizó las tácticas de la resistencia civil pacífica y una de sus accione más fuertes fue el cierre del aeropuerto de Guanajuato. La inconformidad del entonces candidato Fox se debía al margen cerrado de la elección con el candidato priista (2.6 % en ese entonces mientras que la diferencia del pasado 2 de julio fue aún más cerrada 0.5 %), tomando en cuenta esta información: ¿donde están las acciones de la izquierda trasnochada que busca un sistema amparado en la violencia y la sangre? La gente que acudió a las marchas o que permanecieron en reforma no buscaban la desestabilización del país, reclamaban con sus escasos medios a las instituciones correspondientes, que hicieran su trabajo imparcialmente y aclararan una elección que resulto muy cerrada, es decir exigían con medios democráticos, pacíficos y creativos que se estableciera en la realidad el orden democrático, legal y republicano; no romperlo. ¿Quién es el que ejerce la violencia cuando enfrenta a una marcha pacífica (compuesta en su mayoría de ancianos y mujeres), con un cuerpo de francotiradores, tanquetas y grupos antimotines? ¿por qué se le exige a la izquierda modernidad, cuando el presente gobierno en su “combate al crimen organizado” militariza al país? ¿Por qué los periodistas y analistas políticos claman que la izquierda debe ser moderada y no se escandalizan cuando el presidente Calderón visita algún sitio público y este es prácticamente cercado por decenas de cuerpos militares y cientos de barreras metálicas? ¿no es lo mismo que hacían las dictaduras militares latinoamericanas en los años 70 o de lo que se acusa al presidente Chávez o a Castro? El control de los medios de comunicación es otra prueba de la “modernidad” del presente gobierno, ya que los utiliza para justificar de una forma irreal y simplona la presencia del ejercito en las calles. Pero es inequitativo y no le da la difusión y el seguimiento necesario a la serie de abusos denunciados por las victimas y cometidos por los militares: violación de una anciana en el estado de Veracruz; violación de 5 mujeres menores de edad en el estado de Michoacán y el asesinato de una familia entera en un retén del estado de Sinaloa. A los disidentes al gobierno de Calderón (como se dice que sucede en Cuba o Venezuela), no se les proporciona ningún espacio televisivo, salvo para mofarse de ellos, descalificarlos y descontextualizar sus acciones.

Ultimas precisiones.
Decir que las personas mueren en las ambulancias por el bloqueo en la avenida Reforma o que los empleados de los restaurantes y hoteles se vieron en la necesidad de migrar por perder su trabajo es una exageración. Cualquier taxista o chofer (incluidos los de las ambulancias), tienen años trabajando en la ciudad y saben perfectamente rutas alternas para evitar el sin numero de marchas y plantones, que afectan a la ciudad diariamente. Durante el bloqueo, López Obrador daba conferencias informativas (de lunes a sábado), a las 19 horas y los domingos a las 12 del día; al terminar dichas actividades (durante todo el tiempo en que duro el plantón), la gente abarrotaba los cafés, restaurantes y fondas del las avenidas cercanas al zócalo de la ciudad, incluido el Samborns de Bellas Artes. Si los hoteleros de reforma se vieron afectados, fue por la propaganda negativa de las televisoras hacia los campamentos, la cual inducía a pensar en que al cruzar a pie por Reforma las personas serían atacadas o su auto seria desmantelado si se dejaba en la cercanía de los campamentos. Los posibles estragos ocasionados por una protesta de dos meses, no puede igualar los resultados de la política económica de los dos sexenios anteriores, en materia de desempleo y emigración ilegal; tan solo en el sexenio foxista se triplico la migración hacia Estados Unidos y se perdieron el doble de empleos que en los dos sexenios anteriores juntos.

Nuevamente cierro el espacio con el comentario que hice hace algunos meses: salgan y vean los acontecimientos de primera mano, no confíen en lo que les dice la televisión, platiquen con su gente, convivan con ella.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 22, 2007, 11:16:55 PM
Omar:

Gracias por tu "post"  (?Como se dice "post"?).  Lamento que con nuestro "Gathering" este fin de semana no tendre' tiempo para responder hasta la semana que viene.

CD/Marc
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 27, 2007, 06:00:57 AM
Pues, yo no estaba alli', ni soy Mexicano pero la impresion que yo formaba de LO era precisamente el negativo que menciona el autor de este ensayo.  A mi me parecia que LO buscaba la manera de interumpir los resultados de la elecion fuera del sistema legal, lo cual habia declarado por Calderon.

Con la historia del PRI en Mexico es natural tener sospechos de trampas y manipulaciones del resultados, pero el hecho que el PRI cayo' a tercer lugar habla fuertamente que las cosas ya no son como fueron.

Yo me acuerdo viajando por el campo de Mexico en mi motocicleta en el ano 1976 viendo "Jose Lopez Portillo" por todos lados como el candidato de todos los partidos :roll:.    Para mi es sumamente impresionante que Mexico haya logrado reformas electorales que han permitido que ahora Mexico realmente ahora tiene una democracia.  Mi impresion es que LO ponia todo eso en peligro por razones de ambicion personal.

PA:  Hablando de campanas negativas, el PRD esta' segundo a nadie.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 30, 2007, 04:36:22 AM
Mary Anastasia O'Grady del Wall Street Journal habla en ingles del politica fiscal de Calderon:

http://online.wsj.com/public/page/8_0004.html?bcpid=86195573&bclid=212338097&bctid=1080170472
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 02, 2007, 08:09:18 PM
   
 THE AMERICAS 
 
 
   
     
   
 
 

 
MSN Money Homepage
MSN Money Investing
   
 RECENT COLUMNS
July 2
• Refried Bean Counters
June 25
• Proof of Life

MORE
   SEARCH PAST COLUMNS

Search for these words:
 
 
Display all columns

 
advertisement
TODAY'S MOST POPULAR 
 
 
1. How Threat to U.K. Has Changed
2. Popular Advice You Shouldn't Take
3. Roundup: All Eyes on iPhone
4. The Best Barbecue
5. Testing Out the iPhone

MORE
Refried Bean Counters
By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY
July 2, 2007; Page A14

Americans who travel to Mexico are warned not to drink the water. Too bad Mexicans who spend time in Washington at the International Monetary Fund don't get similar advice about the ideological Kool-Aid served there. It might keep them from ingesting bad attitudes about taxes and growth and transporting them back home.

Such musings are hard to resist when pondering the fiscal reform recently proposed by President Felipe Calderón's Minister of Hacienda (Treasury), Agustin Carstens. Mr. Carstens is an extremely able Chicago-trained economist and a renowned negotiator in Mexican politics. Unfortunately, he also spent three years (2003-2006) at the IMF and if this reform -- long on creative ways to make businesses pay more taxes and short on pro-growth incentives -- is any guide, he has more than sipped from its fountain of economic "wisdom."

 
Americas columnist Mary Anastasia O'Grady says Mexico's tax law doesn't stimulate development.
Let's concede that there is a fundamental divide in development economics today between those who believe that a simple, low, flat tax is the best way to promote prosperity and those who think governments can and should engineer fairness through a progressive tax code. The former view focuses on growth, the latter view -- championed by the IMF -- on socializing the fruits of the productive sector of the economy.

A dozen or so countries have chosen the flat tax with stunning economic success. Ireland, once poor and backward, adopted a flat corporate rate and became the Celtic Tiger. Russia triumphed over a seemingly irreversible culture of tax evasion with a single, low corporate rate and has experienced a sharp increase in revenues. Many Eastern European countries, impoverished by decades of communism, have gone one step further to adopt a true flat tax which covers individuals.

But IMF theology still holds most Latin American policy makers in thrall. It preaches that fiscal balance is sacred and if politicians won't cut spending, then they should raise taxes. The productive sector of the economy -- which includes anyone with money -- must cough up the revenue that bureaucrats and politicians need. Perhaps the most damaging aspect of this dogma is its rejection of "dynamic scoring," or in layman's terms, the positive effects on revenues when simplicity and low rates produce higher levels of economic activity, compliance and investment. In clinging to a static analysis, policy makers are forever forced to go after the private sector with increasing zeal. This frightens capital and is no way to promote growth. Regrettably, Mexico's young Calderón government looks like it is about to fall into this trap.

The proposed reform, which will be debated in Congress this summer, includes policy changes in the areas of federalism and public spending. But it is the tax component that is especially troubling. What is toted as a "single corporate rate," will be, in effect, an alternative minimum tax on consumption administered alongside the old corporate income tax.

The Mexican tax system, like the U.S. tax code, is a mess -- complex and unjust and burdensome to comply with. Rates were brought down during the government of Vicente Fox, who was president from 2000-2006, but the code is rife with loopholes and there are high levels of evasion. In a November report, the Economist Intelligence Unit described the system as "convoluted" and said that "large companies regularly complain that they are disproportionately burdened by the tax system because the authorities find it easier to track their activities than those of smaller firms." The report also noted that the "informal sector, which skirts all tax obligations, is massive and grows larger every year."

Mexico says that it collects taxes equivalent to only about 12% of gross domestic product and that with oil revenues dropping in future years, it will need to get more money from the private sector to avoid fiscal imbalances. It is this thinking that has produced the proposal for a new "single rate" AMT, a young Frankenstein to walk alongside the current monster tax system.

Here's how it works: Businesses calculate their taxes under the old system, with its top marginal rate of 28% and the slew of deductions and exemptions that apply under the current tax law. They then calculate their taxes under the "single rate," which is 19% on revenues minus inputs and capital expenses. Labor is not deductible but there is a credit earned for low-wage labor. The tax paid is the higher of the two.

The idea here is that through the subsidizing of low-wage labor, more low-paying jobs will materialize. Meanwhile, businesses won't be able to use an army of accountants to take advantage of exemptions and whittle tax payments down to nothing. They are now going to be hit with a 19% AMT. For those companies, this is a tax increase and the government hopes revenues will rise.

On one level it is hard not to cheer on Mr. Carstens. Closing the loopholes is a noble goal, and there is no doubt that had he tried to eliminate them through a rewrite of the code, Mexico's powerful special interests would have crushed the attempt. To give the minister his due, his is an effort to get around that problem, and there are those who would argue that, given Mexican politics, this is best that can be accomplished at this time.

Yet it is worth asking whether this is what Mexicans are being offered because the IMF's view of the world now prevails inside Hacienda. Though the reform does away with the 2% asset tax, it does nothing to simplify the code so as to encourage compliance. Instead it adds the AMT consumption-tax calculation, further complicating the filing process. There is no rate cut, which is key to both broadening the base and attracting investment to boost growth. It is also biased against skilled labor, which ends up being taxed twice. There will be plenty of jobs for basket weavers in Chiapas but companies that use skilled labor will now have an incentive to replace people with machines, which they can write off. And since businesses often react to tax increases by voting with their feet or making other adjustments, there is a distinct possibility that the tax increase won't even generate the revenue promised.

The bean counters at the IMF are going to love this reform, but coming from a president that promised to unleash the animal spirits of an entrepreneurial nation, it is a colossal disappointment. If this is the best that the self-proclaimed jobs president can do in the early years of his tenure, get ready for six more years of mediocre growth.

• Write to O'Grady@wsj.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 05, 2007, 06:55:52 AM

By James C. McKinley Jr.
Wednesday, July 4, 2007

MEXICO CITY: The Mexican government vigorously denied this week the
accusations of a Chinese-Mexican businessman who is wanted on drug charges
here but who asserts that $150 million found hidden in his mansion came from
members of President Felipe Calderón's party, including the secretary of
labor.

Zhenli Ye Gon, a naturalized Mexican citizen who owns a pharmaceutical
company, rocked the political world here recently by suggesting, through his
lawyer in New York, that the labor secretary, Javier Lozano Alarcón, had
threatened to kill him last year unless he agreed to hide duffel bags
stuffed with tens of millions of dollars in his house.

On Tuesday, Lozano Alarcón issued a statement calling the charges "false,
absurd, untrue, crooked and perverse." A spokesman for Calderón, speaking on
the condition of anonymity because the president had yet to make an official
statement, said Zhenli appeared to be making false charges as part of a
strategy to broker a deal with prosecutors here.

Mexico's attorney general, Eduardo Medina Mora, said in a televised
interview Monday that the idea that someone from Calderón's campaign or
cabinet would force Zhenli to hide money seemed "ridiculous and fantastic."

"Evidently the man dedicated himself to the illicit importation of
pseudoephedrine, and this was sold to drug traffickers," the attorney
general said. "This money was the product of that activity."

He said the government had evidence that Zhenli, 44, had illegally imported
19 tons of pseudoephedrine, a decongestant, and intended to sell it to drug
dealers who use it to manufacture methamphetamine, a synthetic stimulant
known on the street as "ice."

Zhenli denied the charge in an interview with The Associated Press published
Saturday; the news agency said the interview was given in the New York
office of his lawyer, Ning Ye.

Zhenli said that various party officials had delivered money for him to
hide, but he did not provide their names.

The Mexican authorities began investigating Zhenli in December, after
discovering an illicit shipment of pseudoephedrine on a boat in the port of
Lázaro Cárdenas, prosecutors say. The chemical was being shipped to Unimed,
a pharmaceutical company Zhenli started in 1997, they said.

On March 15, federal agents raided his home in an affluent section of the
capital. There they found about $205 million and $22 million in other
currencies and traveler's checks. The money was stuffed in walls, suitcases
and closets. They also seized eight luxury cars and seven high-powered
firearms.

At the time, Karen Tandy, the head of the U.S. Drug Enforcement
Administration, called the raid "the largest single drug-cash seizure the
world has every seen."

Zhenli, who was born in Shanghai and became a Mexican citizen in 2002, had
disappeared before the raid. Eleven other people, among them several of
Zhenli's relatives, have been arrested and charged with drug trafficking in
connection with the seizures.

Over the weekend, the Mexican government said Zhenli's lawyers had sent a
letter to the Mexican Embassy in Washington threatening to expose an alleged
link between the cash found at his house and Calderón's campaign unless
prosecutors made a deal beneficial to the accused businessman.

"These lawyers are unscrupulously and uselessly looking to blackmail the
Mexican government with absurd and untrue statements," the attorney
general's office said Sunday.

In the AP interview, Zhenli said the labor secretary, an important member of
Calderón's campaign last year, gave him about $150 million for safekeeping
in May 2006, during the heat of the electoral battle.

He also denied that the chemical he had imported was pseudoephedrine, saying
it was another chemical used in cough medicines.

Source Drudge
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 06, 2007, 02:13:14 AM
Todos:

Respeto mucho al "Stratfor" pero en asuntos economicos en mi opinion su nivel es menos que en asuntos de geo-politica.  Aqui esta'n en favor en AUMENTANDO ingresos al gobierno Mexicano.  Admito abiertamente que en general mis perjuicios ven aumentando el papel del Estado.  La economia de Mexico ya causa que milliones y milliones de Mexicanos vengan aqui a los EU en violacion de nuestras leyes-- ?como puede ayudar eso dando aun mas dinero y por lo cual, potencia a las burocracias del gobierno?

Marc
================

Mexico: Taxes, Pemex and Calderon's Reforms
Summary

Mexico's Congress has begun reviewing President Felipe Calderon's fiscal reform plan. While Calderon and his allies carry enough political weight to pass his tax legislation despite the opposition's resistance, the president is seeking a consensus that could facilitate his future plans for reforming Mexico's energy sector.

Analysis

Mexico's government finally is tackling the country's troubled tax system. President Felipe Calderon's fiscal reform plan is before Congress, with opposition parties readying their positions regarding the proposal. Tax reform is crucial if Mexico's government is to remain solvent, as oil revenues are projected to fall sharply. In addition, this legislative initiative must succeed for Calderon to gain sufficient momentum to tackle the more controversial challenge of energy reform.

Calderon's chances for success with this initiative are reasonably high, and the president will hope to use this success to generate momentum for his plans to reform state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). Reforming Mexico's prized oil giant will be decidedly more difficult, since this will see the opposition's resistance to the tax reform proposal grow into a very public battle against the president's plans for Pemex.

At present, Mexico's tax system is a disaster. The country has one of the lowest tax rates in Latin America, collecting only about 10 percent of its gross domestic product. To put this in perspective, other major Latin American powers such as Chile and Brazil take in about twice that percentage. Rampant tax evasion exacerbates this problem.

Moreover, 40 percent of the government's revenues come directly from state oil company Pemex. But Pemex is declining rapidly. Its onshore fields are maturing, and Pemex lacks the technical capacity to explore its ample offshore reserves. Without major reform, the oil giant will weaken further, effectively bankrupting Mexico.

Calderon's reform proposal targets Mexico's biggest tax evader: the business sector. The plan proposes a 19 percent flat tax on all companies, along with taxes on large cash deposits to prevent smaller cash-based businesses from operating below the tax radar. In addition to closing tax loopholes, a flat tax also simplifies the highly complex tax code, making it harder for companies to avoid taxation.

The government has maintained that the majority of businesses the plan would affect are tax cheats. Since publicly opposing the plan would thus effectively mark a firm as a tax evader, the business community has responded to the plan with a deafening silence. The relative quiet is not surprising given that Latin American countries' tax rates average about 40 percent higher than Mexico's planned flat tax -- meaning Mexico would remain a relatively low-tax option for multinational firms with current or planned Latin American operations.

Though Calderon's plan calls for some serious revisions, it has been criticized by more conservative elements for not going far enough because it does not call for the addition of value-added tax (VAT) on food or medication. Calderon's decision to avoid VAT changes is decidedly pragmatic. Proposed and highly controversial additions to VAT killed the reform plans of former President Vicente Fox because of their effects on Mexico's lower-income population. Calderon's focus on relatively palatable reforms indicates he understands the art of policy compromise essential to actually getting legislation passed.

Approval is, of course, the chief obstacle Calderon faces. While the president's National Action Party (PAN) is poised to support his proposal, Calderon must also contend with Mexico's two other major parties, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD). The PAN has enjoyed an alliance with the PRI since the postelection row of 2006, while the PRD has maintained a staunch opposition to the ruling party. The layout of Congress is such that no one party can dominate, but the PAN and PRI's coalition -- collectively holding 66 percent of Senate seats to the PRD's 20 percent and 62 percent of lower house positions to the PRD's 25 percent -- effectively can shut out the PRD.

The PRI, Mexico's traditional ruling party and PAN's recent ally, already has noted that it does not intend to give Calderon carte blanche with the reform plan. There are indications, however, that PRI resistance to the plan is purely a political bargaining tool and that the party recognizes the need for reform and intends to support the plan in exchange for certain concessions. The PRI's primary concern is state-level issues, since it controls 17 state governments, more than the PRD and PAN combined. For the former ruling party, keeping a strong control on state politics -- by increasing budget control at the state level and directly transferring 3 percent of current VAT revenues to states -- is a priority. Calderon's proposal would have to be adjusted through negotiations to meet these demands.

Meanwhile, the PRD has a divided stance on Calderon's proposal. The more radical elements led by former presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador are demanding zero negotiation with Calderon. While Lopez Obrador lost the vast majority of his political force after his 2006 presidential loss and his so-called shadow government is disregarded by all but his most ardent followers, his opposition could lead more radical PRD legislators to vote against any version of the proposal. PRD moderates have indicated they are open to negotiation and dialogue in Congress, but there is little consensus within the party as to what changes the PRD plans to pursue. The PRD's chief complaint with Calderon's proposal regards the idea of a flat tax. The PRD contends that tax rates should be increased according to earnings in order to hit big business. Since the PRD caters to lower-income constituents, the notion of progressive taxation is far more appealing than a flat tax. Splits within the PRD are good news for Calderon, since a united PRD would provide the most significant opposition to his efforts.

The PRD's limited resistance to Calderon's current proposal is trifling compared to the resistance the president will face when he attempts to undertake an overhaul of Pemex. The PRD can be expected to mount a firm, united opposition to any such proposals. The oil giant is a matter of national pride and an object of sentiment for Mexicans, and even as it struggles, many Mexicans remain highly resistant to the notion of reforming the company by allowing foreign involvement -- regardless of how necessary such reform might be.

Calderon hopes that support for his tax plan will follow him into his Pemex plans. Getting PRD support for his tax plans could thus facilitate his Pemex plans, though he will proceed with his tax plans with or without PRD support. Ultimately, however, Calderon does not need PRD support to pass his legislation, since he can negotiate with the PRI and hammer out a deal that pleases the PRI and the PAN. Regardless of whether PRD supports his current tax proposal, Calderon's fight to change Pemex will be the most controversial and taxing agenda of his presidency.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 09, 2007, 08:45:05 AM
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-towns9jul09,0,400506.story?coll=la-home-center

En ingles:  La policia de los pequenos pueblos cerca de la frontera se huyen de los narcotraficantes.
Title: Amenazas/threats to US Reporters
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 16, 2007, 11:01:41 AM
Mexico's Drug Cartels: The Threat to U.S. Reporters
Editors at the San Antonio Express-News ordered their Laredo, Texas, correspondent to leave the U.S.-Mexico border city July 12 after a source told the reporter he was in danger of being killed. The threat reportedly originated from Los Zetas, enforcers for the Gulf drug cartel. In response to the threat, the Dallas Morning News has instructed its Mexico City-based correspondent to stay away from the border for the time being.

Death threats against journalists are common on the Mexican side of the border -- and it is not uncommon to see them acted on. Reporters Without Borders, a Paris-based nongovernmental organization that advocates international press freedom, lists Mexico as the most dangerous country in the world -- except for Iraq -- for journalists. The group's 2006 report said nine journalists were killed and three others went missing last year. Journalists from major media outlets, as well as smaller local newspapers, have been killed or have disappeared after reporting on the activities of the drug cartels.

Even journalists working for smaller media outlets closer to the border that cover cartel activities in Mexico have been warned by their sources about their safety. A reporter working for a television station close to the border was threatened after the station aired a story about the Zetas. It is safe to say the killings and the threats against reporters are having a chilling effect on the coverage of drug-trafficking operations in Mexico.

So far, there are no reports that the cartels have carried out targeted killings of American journalists on either side of the border. U.S. authorities, however, believe the Zetas have crossed into the United States and killed other people on the U.S. side. Threats against reporters on the U.S. side, therefore, could easily escalate to an attempt against an American journalist inside the United States. Moreover, there is no reason to believe the enforcers would not strike at American reporters covering drug trafficking on Mexican soil.

U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza on July 13 publicly condemned threats against U.S. journalists covering the cartels in Mexico. This indicates that the issue is being taken seriously at the higher levels of the U.S government, and will figure into Washington's relations with Mexico City.

The cartels are used to getting their way when it comes to influencing media coverage of their activities. Because of the intimidation and killings, many Mexican editors have been forced to be more selective in their coverage, even closing their papers temporarily until things cool off with the local cartels. The Cambio Sonora newspaper in Sonora state decided to close down temporarily in May following two grenade attacks at the newspaper -- probably from the Comando Negro, enforcers working for the Sinaloa federation of cartels. In February 2006, Nuevo Laredo's El Mañana newspaper ceased its investigative reporting on drug trafficking after an attack with assault rifles and a grenade at the newspaper left one of its reporters paralyzed.

Although some U.S. media outlets appear to be taking action to mitigate the threat against their reporters covering Mexican drug cartels, American journalists continue to follow what has become a major international news story. As the coverage continues, the cartels -- which have not demonstrated any fear of U.S. law enforcement -- could feel compelled to demonstrate their ability to reach across the border.
stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 17, 2007, 11:45:38 AM
Mexico Security Memo: July 16, 2007
July 16, 2007 1945 GMT


Hints of a Broken Cease-fire

Violence in the northern state of Nuevo Leon has erupted once again, starting with the attempted assassination of a police chief in Guadalupe on July 14, followed by the targeted killing on July 15 of a police officer in the wealthy Monterrey suburb of San Nicolas de los Garza. The July 14 attack is significant because it was the first against a police or government official in the state since June 12, when the warring Gulf and Sinaloa cartels apparently declared a cease-fire. Before June 12, such attacks occurred almost daily. Violence also has increased elsewhere in Mexico in recent days, suggesting that the cease-fire has been broken or at least strained. Last week's Mexico Security Memo indicated that any cease-fire would be short-lived, and we expect more killings across the country during the coming week.

Cartels and Kidnapping Rings

Authorities in Nuevo Leon said July 10 they had dismantled a kidnapping gang in Monterrey known as Las Estacas by detaining 14 members of the group in raids at two residences. The raids followed the July 1 arrest of seven members of Los Halcones, a similar kidnapping ring. Police officials said Las Estacas and Los Halcones are both linked to the Gulf cartel.

The deteriorating security situation in Mexico has contributed to a high rate of kidnappings throughout the country, and this has had a significant impact on business. For example, many of the large corporations operating in Baja California state have upgraded security at their facilities in order to mitigate this threat. Even so, abductions are on the rise in Baja California, especially in Tijuana. In most cases involving the kidnapping of high-value targets, the victims are released unharmed after a ransom is paid. These kinds of crimes are examples of the deteriorating security situation.

An Added Security Burden

As Mexico's security forces continue operate against drug cartels, they will have to take on the additional burden of increasing security at energy installations. A group known as the People's Revolutionary Democratic Party (PDPR), a splinter group of the People's Revolutionary Army (EPR), claimed responsibility July 10 for recent pipeline explosions in Guanajuato and Queretaro states.


======

Without mentioning any specific threats, the PDPR said it will continue a vague harassment campaign against "economic interests of the oligarchy" until the government releases two political prisoners allegedly detained May 25 in Oaxaca state. The PDPR is the most active splinter faction of the EPR, though during the last several years its activities have only been writing and posting online anti-government manifestos.

That the group has apparently pulled off a successful bomb attack against multiple energy targets -- the government has yet to confirm the PDPR was behind the bombings -- could indicate a shift in operations. The most likely scenario, however, is that the group acted when it did because it could, out of operational readiness, and that it will be unable to stage another such attack anytime soon. It is worth noting that Mexican security forces are known to be extremely effective against small anti-government groups such as the EPR; while the police might be wary of taking action against the cartels, they have no problem hunting down poorly armed Marxist rebels.

July 9
The body of a man was found wrapped in a blanket with his arms tied behind his back and a single gunshot wound to the neck in Tonala, Jalisco state.
One man died and another was wounded during an attack by six heavily armed men in the Tierra Caliente region of Michoacan state.
July 10
Police discovered the body of a man in a shallow grave with his arms tied behind his back and two gunshot wounds to his head in Charapan, Michoacan state.
July 11
Three gunmen died in a firefight with federal police on a highway near Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas state.

July 12
Mexican soldiers on a routine patrol in Sonora state seized 3.5 tons of marijuana, four vehicles and a number of federal police uniforms.
July 13
Federal police in Tijuana, Baja California state, detained three members of the Gabacho kidnapping gang, which is suspected in the abduction of several local business owners.
U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza condemned threats to U.S. journalists by cartel hit men.
Police in Veracruz state reported that six people had been kidnapped in separate incidents by heavily armed men wearing uniforms similar to those of the Federal Investigative Agency.
July 14
The body of a man wrapped in a blanket was found along a highway outside Acapulco, Guerrero state. He evidently had been tortured.
July 15
Two men were found shot to death on the side of a highway in Durango state.
Two men were shot to death by several gunmen in Lazaro Cardenas, Michoacan state, in apparently related incidents.


stratfor.com
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 17, 2007, 06:55:30 PM

Por favor, alguien me puede explicar que son:

1) AFI
2) PFP
3) SEDENA
4) CISEN

Gracias!
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: José Carballo on July 24, 2007, 10:22:06 AM
Hola Marc, estaba de vacaciones y no había tenido oportunidad de revisar el foro, aquí están los significados que buscas:

1) AFI: Afencia Federal de Investigaciones
2) PFP: Policía Federal Preventiva
3) SEDENA: Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional
4) CISEN: Centro de Investigación y Seguridad Nacional

Para mayor claridad, se podría comparar la AFI con el FBI, la PFP actual seguramente tu la conoces como Policía Federal de Caminos, la SEDENA es el mando del ejército y fuerza aérea mexicana y el CISEN se podría decir que equivale a la NSA.

Saludos
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 30, 2007, 01:07:10 PM
Global Market Brief: Mexico Sees a Decline in Remittances
Numerous factors are contributing to a stagnation or slowdown in the growth rate of remittances Mexican migrant workers send back to Mexico from the United States. These remittances will not suddenly evaporate, but the Mexican government cannot count on the continuation of what has until now been a substantial source of income for the Mexican people. The government will therefore need to look inward and consider domestic reforms to begin preparing for the decline in funds from migrants in the United States. Because remittances provide a safety net for many of Mexico's poor communities, the poor states and communities in central and southern Mexico will be much more affected by any decline in remittances than will the wealthier states in the North.

Whether Mexico implements reforms that will begin to reduce the need for massive migrations to the United States depends largely on the will of the Mexican government. However, the current dip in remittances is on the government's radar and could give Mexican President Felipe Calderon ammunition as he takes his case for further economic reforms to the public. The expected decline in remittances could serve as an impetus to make fundamental changes to Mexico's economy that might set all parts of the country on an economic trajectory of job growth.

In 2006, a record-setting $26.1 billion in remittances -- up 20 percent from $18 billion in 2005 -- represented 2.7 percent of Mexico's gross domestic product and was the country's third-largest source of foreign exchange after oil revenues and industrial exports. However, a recent study conducted by the Inter-American Development Bank found that during the first half of 2007, remittances remained relatively flat, at $11.5 billion, compared to $11.4 billion during the same period in 2006; this does not even exceed a 1 percent increase.




The study also found that in the first half of 2007, 64 percent of Mexicans residing in the United States regularly made remittances -- down from 71 percent in 2006. If these trends continue, Mexico could have a serious problem on its hands.

Why are the remittance payments stagnating and the number of remittance payers decreasing? In the short term, there are several reasons. There is the sluggish growth in the U.S. housing sector, which employs roughly 40 percent of all Mexican migrant workers. Then, there are the U.S. government's attempts to clamp down on businesses hiring illegal immigrants, the economic uncertainty surrounding the subprime meltdown and other factors contributing to a general sense of financial insecurity among the migrant population in the United States. This uncertainty is leading to an increased savings rate and fewer remittances sent back home.

One trend that is both independent of short-term fluctuations in economic growth and most telling of the situation to come is the changing demographic of Mexican migrants staying in the United States. Mexican migrants are staying in the United States longer, and as the number of families reuniting on U.S. soil increases, the need to send money back home decreases. As more migrants give birth to children in the United States, they devote more money to domestic needs, such as education for their children and investments in housing. Furthermore, it seems that fewer Mexican workers are entering the United States, likely daunted by the declining job prospects brought about by strengthened immigration laws and increasing border security. U.S. authorities apprehended 24 percent fewer migrants crossing the border in early 2007 than in the same period in 2006, despite increased monitoring -- a fact that suggests a decrease in border crossings.

For Mexico, all of these factors add up to the potential for a continuing decline in remittances. This does not spell economic disaster for Mexico, but it is a warning to the government that it needs to implement economic reforms to compensate for the expected remittance decline in order to avoid uprisings in regions that depend heavily on the payments.

The reduction in remittances will be felt more regionally than nationally and is particularly relevant for Mexico's central and southern states, which receive the majority of remittances. Economic growth in Mexico's North has averaged between 4 percent and 5 percent since 1995, compared to growth of between 1 percent and 2 percent in southern states. This trend is continuing and is largely due to the northern regions' industrial economies that are based on maquiladora exports to the United States. In contrast, the central-southern state of Michoacan, one of Mexico's least-developed, receives more than 10 percent of Mexico's remittances -- about $615 per person, with approximately one out of 10 households receiving payments.

Remittances keep many families in Mexico's less-developed regions afloat. If Calderon does not create jobs for these communities, slowing migration and fewer remittances will tighten family budgets while increasing the number of unemployed, mostly younger males who would otherwise have migrated to the United States. While tightened budgets and rising unemployment might not spur a large social uprising, they could lead to increases in crime and general discontent, not only in poorer states but also in larger cities that might experience population increases if migration to the United States slows.

Calderon recently proposed a sweeping investment and tax reform policy that, if passed, should make some progress toward boosting economic growth and job creation in Mexico. However, to set Mexico on a path toward long-term economic growth, Calderon must encourage economic growth in his country's poorer regions. Simply increasing tax revenues and investments in pre-existing firms, such as Mexican state oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos, and then subsidizing poorer areas will not translate into long-term structural changes; it will just help to replace losses in remittances in the short term. Outstanding structural problems in the southern areas include onerous legal and business transaction structures (especially for land sales and purchases) and the lack of a developed financial services sector. For the southern regions to grow in the long term, these issues will need to be addressed.

This short-term dip in remittances and prospects of a likely long-term decline are gaining Mexico City's attention and will help spur reforms. However, the strength of Calderon's ambitions to build up the South -- and, therefore, Mexico overall -- remains to be seen.

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: José Carballo on September 19, 2007, 09:09:49 AM
Hola a todos, quisiera que todos pudieran tomar un tiempo y pensar en esta fecha y lo que representa para mucho gente, sobre todo en la Cd. de México. Hemos comentado en SIC y hemos leído mucho en estos foros sobre el estar preparado para defender a nuestras familias ante ataques de "los malos", por eso entrenamos y por eso buscamos mejores técnicas y practiamos a contacto real o con mínima protección, pero han pensado en proteger a su familia ante un desastre de la magnitud del sismo del 85. Incluso en estos momentos Marc ha vivido en carne propia el desastre del Perú, ya que su madre vivie allá. Me permito incluir aquí algunas recomendaciones sobre como se debe actuar en caso de Sismo, antes, durante y después.

¿Qué hacer en caso de Sismo?
ANTES
Recurra a técnicos y especialistas para la construcción o reparación de su vivienda, de este modo tendrá mayor seguridad ante un sismo.
Mantenga siempre en buen estado las instalaciones de gas, agua, y electricidad. En lo posible, use conexiones flexibles.
Junto con su familia, prepare un plan para enfrentar los efectos de un sismo. Esto requiere que organice y ejecute simulacros.
Guarde provisiones (comida enlatada y agua hervida), podrían ser necesarias.
Tenga a la mano: números telefónicos de emergencia, botiquín, de ser posible un radio portátil y una linterna con pilas.
Identifique los lugares más seguros del inmueble, las salidas principales y alternas. Verifique que las salidas y pasillos estén libres de obstáculos.
Fije a la pared: repisas, cuadros, armarios, estantes, espejos y libreros. Evite colocar objetos pesados en la parte superior de éstos.
Asegure firmemente al techo las lámparas y candiles.
Procure que todos, especialmente los niños, tengan consigo una identificación. De ser posible con número telefónico y tipo de sangre.

¿Qué hacer en caso de Sismo?
DURANTE
Conserve la calma, no permita que el pánico se apodere de usted. Tranquilice a las personas que estén alrededor. Ejecute las acciones previstas en su Plan Familiar.
Dirijase a los lugares seguros previamente establecidos; cúbrase la cabeza con ambas manos colocándola junto a las rodillas.
No utilice los elevadores.
Aléjese de los objetos que puedan caer, deslizarse o quebrarse.
No se apresure a salir, el sismo dura solo unos segundos y es posible que termine antes de que usted lo haya logrado.
De ser posible cierre las llaves del gas, baje el switch principal de la alimentación eléctrica y evite prender cerillos o cualquier fuente de incendio.

¿Qué hacer en caso de Sismo?
DESPUÉS
Verifique si hay lesionados, incendios o fugas de cualquier tipo, de ser así, llame a los servicios de auxilio.
Use el teléfono sólo para llamadas de emergencia. Escuche la radio para informarse y colabore con las autoridades.
Sí es necesario evacuar el inmueble, hágalo con calma, cuidado y orden, siga las instrucciones de las autoridades.
Reúnase con su familia en el lugar previamente establecido.
No encienda cerillos ni use aparatos eléctricos hasta asegurarse de que no hay fugas de gas.
Efectúe con cuidado una revisión completa de su casa y mobiliario. No haga uso de ella si presenta daños graves.
Limpie los líquidos derramados o escombros que ofrezcan peligro.
Esté preparado para futuros sismos, llamados réplicas. Generalmente son más débiles, pero pueden ocasionar daños adicionales.
Aléjese de los edificios dañados y evite circular por donde existan deterioros considerables
No consuma alimentos ni bebidas que hayan podido estar en contacto con vidrios rotos o algún contaminante.
En caso de quedar atrapado, conserve la calma y trate de comunicarse al exterior golpeando con algún objeto.
NO PROPAGUE RUMORES.

Además, pueden consultar las páginas del CENAPRED (Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres) en www.cenapred.unam.mx/es o en las páginas de la Dirección de Protección Civil de la Secretaría de Gobernación (federal) en www.proteccioncivil.gob.mx o en la página de protección civil del D.F. en: www.proteccioncivil.df.gob.mx

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 22, 2007, 07:20:45 AM
Jose:

!Buenisima idea!  Pero como se ve en los recientes eventos en Peru, la pregunta que planteas aqui no se limita a Mexico.  Por favor, comienza un nuevo hilo dedicado a esta tema.

Gracias,
Marc
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 17, 2007, 08:49:00 AM
Mexico Security Memo: Oct. 8, 2007
October 08, 2007 18 34  GMT



Hits and Misses

An effort to increase security in Veracruz state got off to a rough start this past week. A day after the state's governor announced the upcoming arrival of 200 federal police as part of "Operation Safe Veracruz," cartel hit men staged a very public killing of a municipal police officer in Veracruz city. The gunmen opened up on the officer's patrol car, firing at least 25 shots in broad daylight just down the street from an army infantry installation. The timing of the attack suggests it was intended to warn federal forces not to interfere with narcotics operations during their deployment, a strategy that has worked well in the past. Several weeks ago, a large security operation in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state -- initiated by a public attack against police -- ended with little to show for it, suggesting that the Veracruz operation will not result in any important arrests or seizures.

Finalized Aid Plan

The Mexican government announced this past week that negotiations over a much-anticipated counternarcotics aid plan with the United States have concluded. Washington reportedly has promised up to $1 billion over two years as part of the program, which also calls for greater information-sharing, technical assistance and legal cooperation. These efforts have actually been under way for some time, which means the aid program is essentially a way to formalize the relationship between the two countries. In any case, the aid money certainly will amount to a significant increase in the U.S. commitment and could well improve Mexico's counternarcotics capabilities. But this assistance plan will not solve all the problems faced by the two countries in trying to counter the drug trade. Both Mexico and the United States have deep-rooted issues that will not be remedied by funding increases. Nevertheless, information released this week by the U.S. Office of National Drug Control Policy suggests that the two countries have already made important progress in some areas, especially in curbing the flow of drugs into the United States. An increase in the street price of cocaine and methamphetamine in all regions of the United States is the most convincing evidence that tighter border security and Mexican counternarcotics efforts are having a positive impact. It remains to be seen if these achievements can be sustained, especially since any long-term disruptions in cartel operations are likely to be met with greater violence.







Oct. 1

Police in Jesus del Monte, Michoacan state, discovered the body of a man whose head had been nearly severed.


The charred body of an unidentified individual was found inside a burning car along a federal highway just outside Acapulco, Guerrero state.


Oct. 2

The bodies of two men were discovered in Mocorito, Sinaloa state, bound with their hands behind their backs.


A man in Culiacan, Sinaloa state, was shot dead by gunmen. He had arrived from Phoenix several hours before his death.


A former police officer in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state, was shot to death by gunmen who entered the house where he was sleeping. Two others were wounded in the attack.


Oct. 3

The body of an unidentified individual was found wrapped in a blanket in a park in Mexico City. The body was bound at the hands and feet; police did not release information about the cause of death.


A man in Culiacan, Sinaloa state, was shot dead by several gunmen as he left his house.


The body of a man with several gunshot wounds was found in Tijuana, Baja California state. The body had been partially burned.


Oct. 4

A police officer in Veracruz, Veracruz state, died when gunmen fired more than 25 shots through the windshield of his patrol car.


Two security chiefs at a federal prison were shot and killed by gunmen as they were driving in Mexico City.


One police officer died and three were wounded during a gunbattle in Miacatlan, Morelos state. At least three of the gunmen also died.


Oct. 5

Authorities in Aguascalientes, Aguascalientes state, reported finding the body of a suspected drug dealer along a busy avenue. He had been suffocated and was bound at the hands and feet.


A firefight between inmates and guards inside a prison in Culiacan, Sinaloa state, left one inmate dead and five wounded. Army troops eventually stormed the prison.


A police commander in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, died after he was repeatedly run over by several vehicles in front of a crowd. Witnesses said the drivers of the vehicles were armed and prevented bystanders from assisting the police officer.


The Mexican army seized more than 11 tons of cocaine from a tractor-trailer near the Gulf Coast city of Tampico, Tamaulipas state. At least seven suspects were detained during the seizure, which was the largest ever in Mexico.


Oct. 6

Gunmen in Juchitan, Oaxaca state, attacked a police station with gunfire and grenades, killing at least one officer.


Oct. 7

At least 11 people were detained following a firefight at a military checkpoint on a highway near Jaumave, Tamaulipas state.
Title: Oil infrastructure bombings
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 17, 2007, 09:04:49 AM
Mexico: Examining Oil Infrastructure Bombings
Since July, several facilities belonging to Mexican state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) have been attacked. A report of a blast Oct. 11 along a Pemex pipeline in Michoacan state immediately gave rise to fears of another attack against Mexico's energy infrastructure, though the company said Oct. 12 that there was no explosion, only a natural gas leak.

The attacks against Pemex facilities are only adding to Mexico's unstable security situation (which currently includes a war against drug cartels). Four groups in Mexico would benefit from either the security or political fallout from attacks against Mexican energy infrastructure: the Gulf drug cartel, oil industry union agitators, political opposition to Mexican President Felipe Calderon's government and the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR) leftist rebel group, which has claimed responsibility for the attacks that have occurred since July, saying the bombings are part of an effort to force the release of jailed members.

One theory that U.S. counternarcotics sources have floated is that the Gulf drug cartel is facilitating EPR's bombing campaign, since many of the attacks have occurred in the cartel's territory. This alleged link would explain how EPR operated in the cartel's territory without fear of reprisal, since the Gulf cartel is believed capable of extending its influence over most criminal activities in its territories. The cartel's motive for supporting the bombings would be to shift government security forces toward protecting Mexico's strategic infrastructure and away from counternarcotics operations. However, Mexican investigators believe this is the least likely scenario and have yet to find evidence pointing to the cartel as the instigator.




Some Mexican investigators believe the bombings are the work of saboteurs from petroleum industry labor unions who are unhappy with the Pemex administration, according to a former Mexican law enforcement source with knowledge of the investigation. Due to links between labor unions and leftist organizations, overlap between EPR and the unions could have led to the attacks.

The bombings also might have been the work of agitators from the leftist Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD). Privately, the PRD theory is popular among Mexican officials. PRD's presidential candidate in 2006, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, hotly contested the election, which was marred by allegations of voter fraud and other misconduct. As the only viable leftist party in Mexico, PRD attracts diverse elements from the leftist political spectrum, ranging from the middle-left to radicals.

Of course, the bombings could be attributable solely to EPR, but since the attacks are of a larger scope than -- and would represent a departure from -- EPR's usual tactics, the group likely had input from outside influences while planning and carrying out the bombings.

If the perpetrators are not EPR members, they are almost certainly collaborating with EPR in some way. Regardless of who is actually behind the attacks, having EPR take credit for them serves the agendas of all possible parties: The Gulf cartel does not care who gets credit for the attacks, as long as security forces are diverted from chasing down its drug smugglers; the union agitators and PRD get their desired effects -- either hurting Pemex or making Calderon's government appear incapable of providing security -- without having to be directly associated with the violent acts; and EPR gets credit for the most significant attacks ever attributed to it.

The violence caused by the cartel wars is providing a backdrop for the pipeline attackers to blend into. If there were no cartel wars, Mexican security forces would have an easier time tracking down the perpetrators.

So far, the attacks have been confined to the infrastructure for Mexican domestic consumption, not the export lines carrying oil to the United States. However, if export lines are targeted, the pipeline attacks could easily throw another wrench into Mexico's economy.

stratfor
Title: Armas illegales (en ingles)
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 24, 2007, 01:20:20 PM


Mexico: Dynamics of the Gun Trade
By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart

The number of drug-related killings in Mexico in 2007 already has surpassed 2,000, an increase of 300 over the same period last year, according to statistics reported by Mexican media outlets. Moreover, sources familiar with the issue say police officials in some jurisdictions have been purposely underreporting drug-related homicides, suggesting that the real body count is even higher.

In addition to the Mexican drug cartels that engage in torture and killings (at times involving beheadings), armed criminal gangs are notorious kidnappers -- prompting some to call Mexico the "kidnapping capital of the world." This has resulted in a boom for armored car manufacturers and security companies, given that most wealthy people living in the country own armored vehicles, and many employ executive protection teams to provide security for themselves, their families and their homes. Additionally, heavily armed criminal gangs regularly commit armed robberies, muggings and express kidnappings.

The one constant in these violent crimes is guns. Mexico's robust gun culture stretches back to revolutions, counterrevolutions and revolutionary bandits such as Pancho Villa. Because of this culture, guns are common in Mexico -- despite strict gun-control laws and licensing procedures. This demand for guns has created an illicit market that not only is intimately related to the U.S. market for illegal narcotics but also, in many ways, mirrors the dynamics of that market. Drugs flow north and guns flow south -- resulting in handsome profits for those willing to run the risks.

Mexican Laws

Similar to the U.S. Constitution, the 1917 Mexican Constitution guarantees Mexico's inhabitants the right to have "arms of any kind in their possession for their protection and legitimate defense." However, the constitution includes many caveats on private citizens' ownership of guns, prohibiting those "expressly forbidden by law" and those "the nation may reserve for the exclusive use of the army, navy or national guard." Furthermore, Mexican law calls for long prison terms for violators.

Mexico, then, has some of the world's strictest gun-control laws -- making guns difficult to obtain legally. Average citizens who want to purchase guns for self-defense or recreational purposes must first get approval from the government. Then, because there are no private-sector gun stores in the country, they must buy weapons through the Defense Department's Arms and Ammunition Marketing Division (UCAM). In accordance with Mexican law, the UCAM carefully limits the calibers of guns it sells. For example, it does not sell handguns larger than a .380 or .38 Special. Also, under Mexican law, popular handguns such as .357 magnum revolvers and 9 mm pistols are exclusively reserved for the armed forces.

Regardless of these efforts, the illicit arms market has been thriving for decades -- not only because firearm laws are not evenly enforced but also because criminals have found a way to circumvent efforts to stem the flow of guns. Moreover, not all illegal guns are in the hands of cartel members and street criminals. A healthy percentage of them are purchased by affluent Mexicans who are not satisfied with the selection of calibers available through the UCAM. Sources say it is not at all unusual to find Mexicans who own prohibited .357 magnum revolvers or .45 caliber pistols for self-defense against kidnappers and armed robbers. In addition to ballistic considerations, Latin machismo is also a factor -- some Mexican men want to own and carry powerful, large-caliber pistols.  (!Que estupido este comentario!  Esta' escrito obviamente por un p---d-jo quien vive en su oficina.  No se le ocurre que pueda haber razones muy logicas p.e. poner un fin a un problema grave de pronto)

The Mechanics of the Gun Trade

This mixture of the historical Mexican gun culture, machismo, strong desire for guns, lax enforcement of gun laws, official corruption and a raging cartel war has created a high demand for illegal guns. Guns sold on the black market in Mexico can fetch as much as 300 percent of their normal market value -- a profit margin similar to that of the cocaine trafficked by the cartels. The laws of economics dictate that where there is a strong demand -- and a considerable profit margin -- entrepreneurs will devise ways to meet that demand. Of course, the illicit markets are no different from the legitimate economy in this respect, and a number of players have emerged to help supply Mexico's appetite for illicit weaponry.

Millions of Mexicans reside (legally and otherwise) in the United States, and the two countries conduct a staggering amount of commerce (legal and otherwise) across the border. In this context, then, when one considers that there are more gun stores in a typical small town in Texas than there are in all of Mexico City, it should come as no surprise that a large number of the weapons found on the illicit arms market in Mexico originated in the United States. In fact, Mexican officials say that as much as 90 percent of the illegal weapons they seize are of U.S. origin.

The most obvious players in the gun trade are the cartels themselves, which not only have the financial resources to buy guns in the United States but also are in a position to receive guns in trade for narcotics from their distribution contacts north of the border. The traditional pattern for cartel operations over the past few decades has been to smuggle drugs north over the border and return with money and guns -- many times over the same routes and by the same conveyances. In addition to the problem of the notoriously corrupt Mexican customs officials, efforts to stem the flow of guns into Mexico also have been hampered by technological limitations. For example, until recently, Mexican authorities lacked X-ray equipment to inspect vehicles entering the country, and this inspection capacity still remains limited.

The cartels also obtain weapons from contacts along their supply networks in South and Central America, where substantial quantities of military ordnance have been shipped over decades to supply insurgencies and counterinsurgencies. Explosives from domestic Mexican sources also are widely available and are generally less expensive than guns.

Aside from the cartels, other criminal syndicates are dedicated to the arms trade. These groups can range from small mom-and-pop operations involving a few individuals who obtain weapons from family members residing in the United States or Central America to large organizations with complex networks that buy dozens or hundreds of weapons at a time.

As in other criminal enterprises in Mexico, such as drug smuggling or kidnapping, it is not unusual to find police officers and military personnel involved in the illegal arms trade. On Sept. 12, three high-ranking police commanders from Baja California and Baja California Sur states were arrested by U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) agents in Phoenix for illegally purchasing weapons at a gun show. (U.S. law prohibits foreigners from buying weapons.) Over the past few years, several Mexican government officials have been arrested on both sides of the border for participating in the arms trade.

Although it is illegal for Mexican nationals to buy guns in the United States and for Americans to haul guns to Mexico, entrepreneurs have found a variety of ways to skirt such laws. Perhaps one of the least recognized ploys is plain old document fraud. Fake documents -- which are easily obtained along the border -- range in quality (and price) from poorly rendered counterfeits to genuine documents obtained with the assistance of corrupt government officials. Using such documents, a Mexican citizen can pose as a U.S. citizen and pass the required background checks to buy guns -- unless, that is, the prospective gun buyer was foolish enough to assume the identity of an American with a criminal record.

Perhaps the most common way to purchase guns is by using a "straw-man" buyer (sometimes in combination with document fraud). That is, paying a person with a clean record who has legal standing to buy the gun. This also is a tried-and-true tactic used by criminals in the United States who are ineligible to purchase guns due to prior convictions. The "straw man" in these cases often is a girlfriend or other associate who is paid to buy a gun for them. Also, with so many family relations spanning the border, it is easy for a Mexican citizen to ask an American relative to purchase a gun or guns on their behalf.

While document fraud and straw-man purchases can be used to bypass the law and fool respectable gun dealers, not all gun dealers are respectable. Some will falsify their sales records in order to sell guns to people they know are not legally permitted to have them -- especially if the guns are being sold at a premium price. ATF does conduct audits of gun dealers, but even after a steep decline in the number of federal firearms dealers over the past decade, there still are not enough inspectors to regularly audit the records of the more than 50,000 federal firearms license holders. This lack of oversight and the temptation of easy money cause some dealers to break the law knowingly.

Guns also can be obtained for the Mexican black market through theft. The cartels traditionally have tasked groups of young street thugs in the United States with stealing items (such as pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles) for the cartels to use or resell in Mexico. Now, intelligence reports suggest that these thugs have begun to rob gun stores in towns along the border. One such group is the Gulf cartel-related "Zetitas" (little Zetas), which is active in the Texas cities of Houston, Laredo and San Antonio, as well as other places.

A cartel connection is suspected when the weapons and ammunition stolen are popular with the cartels, such as assault rifles and FN Five-Seven pistols. The FN Five-Seven and the FN P-90 personal defense weapon shoot a 5.7 x 28 mm round that has been shown to penetrate body armor, as well as vehicle doors and windows. Because of this, they recently have become very popular with cartel enforcers, who have begun to call the weapons matapolicias -- police killers. Several police officials have been killed with these guns this year -- though officers also have been killed with .357 magnum revolvers, .45-caliber pistols and AK-47- or M-16-style assault rifles. Still, due to the rising popularity of the 5.7 x 28 mm weapons among cartel gunmen, many of these somewhat esoteric (and excellently manufactured) weapons are acquired in the United States and end up south of the border. Any time one of these weapons is connected to a crime on either side of the border, a cartel link should be considered.

The gun problem in Mexico is similar to the drug problem in the United States in that it is extremely difficult to reduce the supply of the illicit items without first reducing the demand. Any small reduction in the supply leads to an increase in price, which further stimulates efforts to provide a supply. Therefore, as long as the demand for such weapons persists, people will continue to find creative ways to meet that demand and make a profit. With that demand being fed, at least in part, by drug cartels that are warring for control of drug trafficking routes into the United States, the two problems of drugs and guns will continue to be deeply intertwined.

stratfor
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Dog Mauricio on October 25, 2007, 09:39:15 AM

TRÁFICO DE ARMAS, EL SEGUNDO DELITO MÁS IMPORTANTE, INDICA PROCURADURÍA


Activista inglesa afirma que no es fácil atacar el delito por falta de datos precisos 
 
 
Jorge Alejandro Medellín
El Universal
Lunes 31 de octubre de 2005

El tráfico de armas en México se ha convertido en el segundo delito en importancia cometido por el crimen organizado, tan sólo por debajo del tráfico de drogas, asegura el general Jorge Serrano, director de la Unidad Especializada de Lucha contra el Terrorismo y el Tráfico de Armas y Municiones, adscrita a la Procuraduría General de la República (PGR).
Atacar este ilícito no es sencillo ya que, en primer lugar, en regiones como América Latina no hay datos precisos sobre el fenómeno, señala la activista británica Rebecca Peters, directora de la Red Internacional contra el Tráfico de Armas Ligeras (IANSA).

Datos de Amnistía Internacional revelados recientemente señalan que en el mundo hay cerca de 640 millones de armas convencionales (pistolas, granadas, subametralladoras, fusiles, lanzagranadas), cuyo tráfico es incontrolable.

En el caso de México se habla de entre 2 y 15 millones de armas en todo el país, mientras que cifras oficiales de la Auditoría Superior de la Federación (ASF) aseguran que entre 1972 y 2001 se han otorgado 5 millones 443 mil 547 licencias portación de armas en México.

Los datos no presentan el panorama más reciente, es decir, del año 2001 a la fecha.



De norte a sur

El general Serrano señala en entrevista que el tráfico de armas hacia nuestro país sigue dándose en pequeños cargamentos.

"Es un tráfico hormiga todavía y no hemos detectado hasta el momento a ninguna banda o cartel que se dedique de manera específica a introducir estas piezas".

Lo que sí hay, dice, son grupos dentro de los cárteles de la droga que se dedican a abastecer al narcotráfico de pertrechos.

Se trata de 30 ó 40 personas dentro de las organizaciones encargadas de buscar los contactos para conseguir ciertas armas, como fusiles de asalto, pistolas automáticas, cargadores, granadas y miras telescópicas.

De hecho, el pasado 29 de octubre, la PGR informó en un comunicado sobre el aseguramiento de un embarque de armas hecho en Tijuana.

En un vehículo "se localizaron 15 armas calibre .22 marca Ruger, modelo 10-22 carabina; cinco cajas de cartuchos calibre .45; 36 cargadores calibre .22, dos cargadores calibre .45, dos cinturones portafusil, seis armas de fuego calibre .22, de diversas matrículas; un arma larga AK 47 calibre .22; y una bolsa de plástico que contenía 33 cargadores de material sintético calibre .22", señalaba la dependencia.

En promedio, explica el general Serrano, aseguramos cargamentos de entre 10 y 15 armas de fuego de diversos calibres.

Pero de este universo sobre salen los fusiles de asalto AK-47 (Automatic Kalashnikov), conocidos como cuernos de chivo, y que son las que más emplea criminales junto con el rifle AR-15.

Esto por lo que toca a las armas largas o de alto poder. Sin embargo, el verdadero embate del tráfico de armas es el de las llamadas pequeñas o ligeras, es decir, las pistolas automáticas o semiautomáticas, en calibres .22, .25,.38, .45. y 9 milímetros.

La PGR desconoce el volumen real de armas que pudieran pasar de manera ilegal desde Estados Unidos, pero está segura de que menos de 85 por ciento de estas piezas y de millones de cartuchos provienen del vecino país.



Silencio oficial
Aún así, la especulación sobre la verdadera naturaleza y alcances del fenómeno siguen en el aire.

Rebecca Peters, directora de la organización Red Internacional contra el Tráfico de Armas Ligeras (IANSA), dijo que hay un silencio oficial en Latinoamérica sobre este fenómeno, que puede ser delictivo o no porque estamos hablando de armas legales e ilegales que igual producen miles de muertos al año en el mundo.

En países como Holanda, Inglaterra, España o Sueca, hay datos oficiales sobre el número de armas pequeñas que se fabrican o importan.

"Aquí no. Si uno acude a dependencias oficiales para pedir información, se encuentra con que todo es reservado o sencillamente con que nadie se ha tomado la molestia de investigar y organizar bases de datos al respecto y ese es un gran problema".

Cifras corroboradas por IANSA señalan que el problema derivado del tráfico de armas de fuego ilegales es tal que Brasil ha llegado de registrar más muertes violentas que Colombia como consecuencia de la entrada de este material y su uso callejero.

La Red Internacional que encabeza Peters señala que entre 1978 y el 2000, murieron alrededor de 39 mil personas en Colombia a causa del conflicto armado en ese país.

En el mismo periodo fallecieron, tan sólo en las calles de Río de Janeiro, 49 mi 913 personas por arma de fuego.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Dog Mauricio on November 05, 2007, 10:20:39 AM

DEJAN INUNDACIONES 400 MIL AFECTADOS EN TABASCO
    Hola A todos  8-)

     La situación en Tabasco, México es terrible por las grandes inindaciones y el desbordamiento de ríos por la copiosas lluvias. Por favor pedimos su apoyo para todos los hermanos mexicanos del estado de Tabasco. Envien su colaboración en la medida de sus posibilidades, cualquier ayuda es importante en estos momentos. Se necesitan víveres, ropa, agua, añales... Y aunado a esta trajedia ahora también los hermanos de Veracruz también padecen el desbrdamiento del  río Panapa. Por su colaboración muchas gracias.

Autoridades esperan esta tarde el arribo del presidente Calderón para realizar recorridos por zonas afectadas y el posible anuncio de apoyos extraordinarios 


     La contingencia que vive Tabasco por el desbordamiento de al menos siete ríos y anegaciones por lluvias afectan ya a 400 mil personas de los 17 municipios del estado, afirmó el gobernador Andrés Granier Melo.

El nivel de las corrientes siguen en ascenso y desbordándose a más zonas habitacionales y en áreas de cultivos y potreros.


Además la presión de los ríos empuja los diques de costales con arena que se pusieron en las orillas para salvaguardar algunas zonas habitadas que aún no son afectadas, pero donde los ciudadanos viven en permanencia de zozobra.


Las autoridades esperan para esta tarde el arribo del presidente Felipe Calderón para realizar recorridos por zonas afectadas y el posible anuncio de apoyos extraordinarios.


Apenas ayer, medio gabinete del gobierno federal encabezados por el secretario de Gobernación, Francisco Ramírez Acuña, realizó una evaluación de la calamidad que sufre el estado de Tabasco.


La masa de aire polar del frente frío número cuatro que interacciona con algunos otros fenómenos climáticos sigue ocasionando lluvias en el territorio tabasqueño al que “le llueve sobre mojado”.


La Comisión Nacional del Agua precisó que para el domingo 4 entra el frente frío número cinco que acarreará más precipitaciones, aunque se desconoce aún a detalle la intensidad que pueda traer.


La presa de “Peñitas” ubicada en el municipio de Ostucán, en el norte de Chiapas, sigue desfogando dos mil metros cúbicos por segundo hacia los ríos de la planicie tabasqueña como el Samaria y Carrizal.


No dejen de apoyar
Saludos

Mauricio
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 05, 2007, 11:56:20 AM
Guau Mauricio:

?Puedes sugerir algun fuente digna de fe por honestidad y eficiencia y darnos un URL?

Gracias,
CD
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Dog Mauricio on November 06, 2007, 09:23:13 AM

     Hola Marc:  8-)

     En los principales sitios de las instituciones bancarias como Bancomer y Banamex se pueden hacer donaciones económicas. Para donar cobijas alimentos, ropa, etc. pueden hacerlo en el sitio de la Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional, que es:

www.sedena.gob.mx

     La SEDENA tiene dos centos de acopio. Verdaderamente se necesita, ya que hay gentes que perdieron practicamente todos sus bienes y se quedaron en la calle.  :cry:

     Un gran agradecimiento de corazón para todos aquellos que puedan ayudar a Tabasco.  :-)

Saludos
Mauricio
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on November 14, 2007, 03:55:01 PM
Hola a todos, lamento no poder estar en el foro con la frecuencia de antes, espero normalizar mi participación almenos una por mes. Se quedo una respuesta para Marc pendiente, comienzo contestandola y en otras oportunidades me actualizarme en otros temas.

En efecto México hizo grandes esfuerzos para realizar reformas democráticas, de hecho cuando se formo el grupo de consejeros del Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE) encargado de la organización de la elección donde Fox resultó ganador, nadie penso que se podia retroceder a las situaciones de farza electoral (como la que mensiona Marc en su viaje en el 76), ni mucho menos al fraude electoral.

El historiador mexicano Enrique Semo hace un extenso y puntual analisis de la contienda electoral en México y a grandes rasgos concluye que la oligarquia que gobierna al país permitio la alternancia (no el cambio como se mensiona en los medios), pero fué reacia en permitir que se concretara la verdadera transcisión democrática y recurrió a la farsa electoral, al fraude elctoral y al voto del miedo; para impedir que un gobierno de izquierda gobernara al país. Mensiona que efectivamente hubo un complot en contra del candidato de izquierda y se movilizaron todos los recursos de esa oligarquia de forma cooordinada y sistematica. Por último habla de como esa oligarquía considera a los méxicanos menores de edad y actuó como un padre que se dice habierto al dialogo con sus hijos pero que se impone autoritariamente cuando estos toman decisiones que en apariencia no les son favorables.

Este comentario es mio: hace mas de seis años la mayoria, racional o irracionalmente optaron por el candidato de opocición Vicente Fox, la minoria que no votamos por él vimos con malos ojos esta decisión pero al ser testigos de la trasparencia en la elección y la indiscutible ventaja sobre el candidato oficial y Cardenas aguantamos y toleramos su permanencia en el gobierno. Hace un año despues de ver la dispareja conformación del IFE, la parcial actuación del gobierno y de la camara de diputados; la ntervensión directa de los medios de comunicación, los empresarios y de presenciar una elección tan participativa, asi como favorable al candidato de izquierda; no es de extrañar el malestar de varios millones de mexicanos que nos sentimos traicionados y el rechazo que profesamos a un presidente que fué impuesto y que se sostiene con el respaldo de las televisoras y cuerpos castrenses disfrazados de policias.

La última de Calderón, en Tabasco cuando se presentó a llenar sacos de arena durante 15 minutos, fué tal la demanda de la gente que buscaba se escuchada que tuvo que ser extraido del sitio y una vez que el estado mayor coloco esa cinta naranja que indica peligro; así como una silla enmedio de la improvisada zona de seguridad, nuestro presidente, a precautoria distancia, se dispuso a escuchar a su pueblo.

Si les interesa que profundice en el analisis de Enrique Semo, tengo mucha información al respecto.

Un saludo

Omar
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 16, 2007, 10:22:55 AM
Hola Omar:

Que bueno verte aqui de nuevo.  Tenemos nuestro "DB Gathering of the Pack" este domingo-- por lo cual no tendre tiempo para responder hasta la semana que viene.

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on December 18, 2007, 02:15:06 PM
Hola a todos, ahora si cumplo puntual el compromiso, una colaboración por mes :mrgreen:, en esta ocasión quiero enlazar un suceso presente desde la entrada en funciones del nuevo gobierno mexicano y uno que aconteció la última semana del mes de noviembre: la lucha contra el narcotráfico y el dictamen de la corte sobre la acusación de acoso, maltrato, encubrimiento y asociación delictuosa en contra del Gobernador del estado de Puebla Mario Marín.

Estos casos aunque en apariencia distantes tienen un denominador común: la falta de independencia del poder judicial respecto al poder ejecutivo. Esto se deduce después de conocer los comentarios del historiador y profesor de la Universidad de Palermo Carlo Giuseppe Marino, respecto de la estrategia anticrimen del gobierno mexicano.

Este tipo de acciones para combatir el narcotráfico solo favorecen el mantenimiento de las organizaciones delictivas, ya que efectivamente, el ejército golpea a la criminalidad en las calles pero paradójicamente no hace nada en contra de la estructura que se encuentra arriba, el sistema de poder que hará inevitable la reorganización de los criminales.

En América Latina aunque no existe la mafia como en Sicilia, si existe una estructura con características mafiosas, que ustedes llaman estados autoritarios. En estos sistemas políticos donde la magistratura (el poder judicial), depende del poder político (poder ejecutivo y poder legislativo) o existe una división de poderes simulada, es inevitable que haya una estrecha relación entre jueces y centros de poder que tienden a construir relaciones mafiosas de colaboración o compromiso. La mafia no es crimen organizado sino un poder organizado con una estructura que a veces es alternativa al Estado y a veces utiliza al Estado.

Las autoridades italianas comenzaron a luchar contra la mafia solo cuando la sociedad civil movilizada le impuso esa lucha, cuando los jueces (representantes de la sociedad independiente), organizaron la acción concreta de la batalla, así el Estado se vio obligado a emprender acciones serias gracias a la intervención de una sociedad civil fuerte y viva; organizada en partidos políticos auténticos (auténticamente democráticos), además de una magistratura verdaderamente independiente.


El nuevo gobierno mexicano mantiene el combate en contra del crimen organizado como una prioridad e intenta legitimarse con ella, pero tal lucha no producirá los resultados que la propaganda oficial expresa, ya que el episodio de hace tres semanas revela la subordinación, omisiones, complicidades y compromisos que existen entre la Suprema Corte de Justicia (magistratura), el gobernador de Puebla (poder político) e industriales de la rama textil, vinculados con redes de pederastia y pornografía infantil (centros de poder), pues a pesar de las pruebas evidentes en contra del gobernador la máxima corte del país falló a favor de este último :-o; evidenciando las relaciones “paramafiosas” que menciona el profesor Marino

La afectada por esta decisión del tribunal, la periodista de nombre Lidia Cacho comentó al respecto, “el veredicto de la corte evidentemente me afecta, pero lo más grave es el mensaje que el gobierno envía a los pederastas en particular y al crimen organizado en general: en México hay impunidad”

Saludos

Omar


Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: José Carballo on January 15, 2008, 10:20:06 AM
Hola a todos, primero que nada saludos y muchas felicidades a todos los que no he podido ver en persona, les deseo lo mejor para este año que inicia.

Por otro lado, me encontré hace unos momentos un video en internet, quise compartirlo con todos y por eso lo pongo aquí, ya que en el sitio en español no existe como en el de inglés un apartado para comentar sobre crímenes con cuchillo. El link para el video es

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=5e1_1199622703


Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 17, 2008, 06:29:32 AM
Guau Jose:

Buenisima idea.  Voy a abrir un hilo para este proposito.

CD

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on January 23, 2008, 12:08:12 PM
Hola a todos, en la revista Proceso del mes de noviembre apareció el artículo titulado Soy un treinta y cinco: revelaciones de un desertor, este es un resumen:

En los últimos días del mes de junio las células de los zetas recibieron la orden de reunirse en Matamoros, con objeto de ser consultados acerca de una tregua con sus enemigos del Cartel de Sinaloa. Pacto que se consumo con el conocimiento y cooperación de las autoridades de la PGR, así como del Ejército Mexicano. Sin embargo a pesar de este acuerdo muchas células de los zetas no estuvieron de conformes con él, debido principalmente a que desde de las captura de Osiel Cardenas en marzo del 2003, la dirigencia del cartel del golfo la asumió un grupo independiente al otro ejercito, nombre con el que también se conoce a los zetas. El entrevistado ex miembro del Ejercito Mexicano y ex policía fiscal, formó parte de esos inconformes y fue capturado por una célula antagónica a la suya, pero logró escapar de la casa de seguridad donde fue recluido.

La organización del Cartel del Golfo se compone de dos estructuras, la dirigencia y los zetas. A su vez los casi 600 zetas cuentan con un grupo de inteligencia y resguardo conocido como La Guardia formado por 600 elementos; así como de una estructura financiera, cuyos elementos son protegidos por un acuerdo con la policía, que los convierte en intocables. La Guardia se encarga de vigilar y comunicar a los comandantes todos los movimientos en sus zonas de influencia de la policía y el ejército. Mientras que los financieros se encargan de la recaudación del dinero de las narcotienditas, del derecho de piso a polleros (se cobran $ 60 USD por cada indocumentado que pasa por sus territorios) y narcotraficantes; así como del dinero obtenido por el tráfico de cocaína y la extorsión (actividades que sostienen económicamente al grupo armado).

Entrar al grupo solo es posible a través de la recomendación de algún miembro del mismo y después de completar La Diestra, el riguroso entrenamiento al que son sometidos los aspirantes. Una vez aceptado se le asigna una plaza de operaciones y una actividad. Como brazo armado del Cartel, los zetas deben defender los territorios conquistados y extender la zona de influencia del mismo, como ocurrió con la Plaza de Torreón, que históricamente había pertenecido al Cartel de Sinaloa. El entrevistado menciona que esa plaza costo la vida de cuatro capitanes del Ejercito Mexicano los cuales una vez que murieron se les corto en pedacitos, se les guardo en bolsas de plástico y sus restos fueron arrojados durante el paso de un convoy militar a manera de advertencia. Cuando es necesario que no quede rastro de algún enemigo, se colocan sus restos en un tambo de metal (perforado a balazos), se bañan con gasolina y se les prende fuego; el cuerpo se cocina hasta reducir todo a cenizas.

Para concluir su entrevista se le pregunto al ex zeta su opinión sobre la operación del cartel luego de la detención de su jefe y después de la operación lanzada por el Presidente Calderón; ante lo cual afirmó que todas las células están activas y se opera casi al 100 %, menciona que cuando un zeta es capturado por entrar al territorio del cartel enemigo sin autorización, solo tiene que identificarse como un 35 y mencionar la plaza a la que pertenece y el nombre de su jefe inmediato, posteriormente la misma policía lo entrega a su célula o a su superior.

Nos vemos el próximo mes.

Omar

PD. Impresionante el video que comparte con nosotros Jose, espero a que Marc cree el hilo, para comentar sobre el.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on February 27, 2008, 01:13:32 PM
Hola a todos, tres meses cumpliendo mi asistencia a este foro, ya es un logro!!!!...en la revista Proceso de la semana pasada encontré el artículo Cuerpo sin Legitimidad, que habla sobre el nuevo grupo militar, aquí esta un resumen:

“El pasado 16 de septiembre, durante el desfile militar, se presentó un contingente ataviado con un uniforme beige y gorra negra, el cual fue presentado con el nombre de Fuerzas Especiales de Apoyo Federal. La creación de esta fuerza militar obedece a un decreto del Presidente de la República fechado el pasado 4 de mayo de 2007, el cual establece que esta unidad estará compuesta de mil 800 efectivos y quedará a las órdenes directas del Presidente de la República; para apoyar a cualquier autoridad civil que lo solicite en el combate a la delincuencia organizada o contra cualquier acto que ponga en riesgo la seguridad nacional. Pero debido a que este decreto provocó suspicacia entre los partidos de izquierda y las organizaciones de derechos humanos fue substituido por otro, donde se especifica que la intervención del nuevo cuerpo obedecerá solo a una circunstancia excepcional y por ordenes conjuntas de la Secretaria de Seguridad Pública Federal, la Secretaría de la Defensa Nacional (SEDENA) y la Secretaria de Gobernación.

Desde la fecha del decreto presidencial (a pesar de no contar con el marco legal ni con presupuesto propio para el nuevo grupo), la SEDENA ya ha empezado a recabar la información sobre el apoyo que proporciona a la Policía Federal Preventiva desde 1999. Así como los métodos que otros países han desarrollado al emplear a sus ejércitos en labores de seguridad pública. En ese mismo sentido esta secretaria ya inició un inventario de sus unidades operativas, para tener información sobre el personal a reclutar, además de las necesidades de armamento y adiestramiento. Paralelamente la secretaría ya tiene listo el proyecto de la estructura orgánica, las unidades subordinadas y sus funciones; así como el presupuesto de integración y operación. Aunque en este proyecto no se indica quien es el comandante de esta unidad, la revista Armas (editada por la SEDENA), filtra esa información al mencionar en la lista de las personalidades asistentes a la celebración por el 61º Aniversario de las Aerotropas en México, al General de División Jesús Humberto Rodríguez Martínez como Comandante de las Fuerzas Especiales de Apoyo Federal.

Este recién nombrado General de División (fue ascendido a ese grado apenas en noviembre pasado por Calderón), es considerado un héroe de guerra por su participación en el Batallón Olimpia, responsable en 1968 de dirigir la matanza a civiles en Tlatelolco :?. Por estos actos heróicos el Presidente Díaz Ordaz y su Secretario de Defensa, Marcelino García Barragán, en un acuerdo del 23 de octubre del mismo año lo reconocen de esta forma: por el valor, determinación, sentido de responsabilidad y espíritu de sacrificio que demostró el personal militar al repeler la agresión armada durante los hechos acontecidos en la Plaza de las Tres Culturas, el día 2 del actual... por la Ley de Ascensos y Recompensas del Ejercito y Fuerza Aérea Nacionales, gírense instrucciones de ascenso al grado inmediato superior a las personas que continuación se mencionan... Junto con otros siete de sus compañeros Rodríguez Martínez fue ascendido ese mismo año.”

El futuro de las garantías individuales en México esta en riesgo, no solo con la inminente aprobación de la llamada Ley Gestapo *, sino además por la operación de un grupo especial de militares sin tareas, atribuciones ni límites bien definidos y lo más grave dirigido por un personaje con la trayectoria del General Rodríguez Martínez.

Un saludo

Omar

*Nota 1, aquí están las reflexiones sobre la Ley Gestapo, del periodista Julio Hernández publicado en la columna Astillero del periódico La Jornada del lunes pasado:

... autoridades rencorosas podrían dirigir acciones policíacas y militares contra quienes quieran, utilizando módicas coartadas legales. Por las noches como sucedía con las tropas nazis de asalto, cualquier casa podrá ser allanada y sus habitantes arrancados de ella, sin orden judicial ni fundamento mayor que la suposición de los agentes gubernamentales de que en esos lugares pudiera estar en riesgo una vida, una llamada anónima, denunciando atrocidades en un domicilio, podrían servir para justificar irrupciones armadas, esa llamada anónima podría ser calumniosas o certera o inventada o autentica o todo lo contrario...

*Nota 2, por fortuna para la libertad de los ciudadanos del pais y sobre todo de la ciudad, se eliminó de la reforma judicial el apartado de los cateos sin autorización, almenos estamos a salvo por ahora.

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on April 04, 2008, 03:43:15 PM

Hola a todos, en la revista Proceso del mes pasado encontré el artículo Protectores del cártel del Golfo, que habla sobre un informe del FBI que destaca la capacidad del grupo armado para corromper autoridades mexicanas de alto nivel y lo más preocupante para Estados Unidos, la facilidad de operar en ambos lados de la frontera, aquí esta un resumen:

El éxito de los zetas radica en ser una organización eficiente y versátil (en una anterior colaboración mencioné la estructura declarada directamente de un desertor del grupo); integrada por ex integrantes de los GAFES (Grupo Aerotransportado de Fuerzas Especiales), dedicada principalmente a la protección del cártel del Golfo, pero diversificada hacia el trafico de drogas, extorsión, secuestros, asesinatos, derecho de piso y protección a bares, table dance, cantinas y casas de juego. En sus operaciones utilizan armamento de alto poder y una capacitación rigurosa que brindan ellos mismo o cuerpos especializados como ex Kaibiles (cuerpo contrainsurgente guatemalteco), quienes últimamente se encuentran entrenando un grupo operativo auxiliar que llaman zetitas, quienes ya no son militares. Otra muestra de su eficiencia es el efecto psicológico que imprimen en sus adversarios durante sus ejecuciones, las cuales van desde decapitar al cadáver, hasta una especie de rito narco satánico conocido como fumarse al muerto (en una pipa mezclan las cenizas del cuerpo que acaban de calcinar, lo combinan con cocaína y mientras lo fuman repiten la letanía tu sigues aquí, tu no te has ido, ahora formas parte de nosotros y nos vas a cuidar para siempre).

El problema principal para Estados Unidos es la vulnerabilidad de su frontera, pues varios integrantes del grupo son residentes en este país o son familiares de residentes; lo que les ha permitido establecer y pocisionar redes de distribución de drogas en los estados fronterizos (sobretodo en el Valle de Texas desde el año 2000) y asociarse con mafias locales como los Hermanos Pistoleros Latinos. La actividad en el territorio norteamericano además del tráfico de drogas se centra en el secuestro individual.

Otro factor de éxito para los zetas es el apoyo que han recibido de diversas jurisdicciones mexicanas de alto nivel, desde autoridades de Tamaulipas hasta el propio Procurador Macedo de la Concha (en el sexenio de Vicente Fox) quien fue un personaje clave para que este grupo consolidara su dominio en la Plaza de Piedras Negras. Del apoyo del procurador al grupo armado estaba al tanto autoridades tan importantes como el Director de la SIEDO (Sub procuraduría de Investigación Especializada en Delincuencia Organizada) José Luís Santiago Vasconcelos quien actualmente ocupa el cargo de subprocurador de Asuntos Jurídicos e Internacionales de la PGR). El ex Procurador General de la República Daniel Cabeza de Vaca (quien substituyó a Macedo de la Concha), en noviembre de 2006 calificó al grupo armado como un mito y tiempo después se contradijo al afirmar que el líder de esta organización armada se encontraba anulado por su adicción a la cocaína y su grupo al borde de la desintegración. Estas afirmaciones de parte del procurador le merecieron un reclamo de un jefe de contrainteligencia del FBI en una reunión entre los procuradores de ambos países, dada su falta de acción en torno a la información proporcionada que hace referencia de manera específica a los nombres y territorios de los zetas, así como a la participación del ex procurador Macedo de la Concha.

El documento del FBI concluye de esta forma:

este no es un documento de la DEA sino del FBI... Para el Gobierno de los Estados Unidos lo primero es la seguridad nacional, la porosidad de sus fronteras, este tema dejará de ser prioritario para Estados Unidos hasta que existan acciones concretas del gobierno mexicano en torno a los zetra.

Un saludo a todos.

Omar.


Nota: en relación a la falta de acciones concretas del gobierno mexicano en contra de este grupo, recordé una nota en este mismo semanario Proceso, donde un militar relata que cuando observan un convoy de camionetas negras, con los vidrios polarizados rapidamente buscan donde ocultarse o almenos se tiran al piso hasta que las camionetas pasan de largo en medio del "reten". Parece que los retenes son solo funcionan para la población civil..., como la familia que fué asesinada por negarse a detener su automovil durante un operativo de este tipo en el estado de Sinaloa, el auto fué hecho literalmente pedazos por rafagas de ametralladora artillada  :-o
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 07, 2008, 09:25:56 AM
Tremendamente interestsante Omar.  Siempre recibo tus informes aqui con ganas.  Gracias.

Lamentamente, la gran mayoria de mis fuentes de informacion son en ingles.  Aqui hay uno mas, sobre PEMEX.

Playing Monopoly in Mexico
By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY
April 7, 2008; Page A12

Felipe Calderón won the July 2006 presidential election by convincing Mexicans he was the candidate who could bring about 21st-century living standards. A more robust economy was not just a Calderón campaign promise, it was the campaign promise.

To deliver, Mr. Calderón knew he would have to confront the nation's monster monopolies, which gorge themselves on privilege at consumer expense. The poster child of this practice is the state-owned oil giant, Pemex.

 
Americas Columnist Mary Anastasia O'Grady comments on why oil-rich Mexico can't maximize its oil production. (April 7)
Now, 16 months into Mr. Calderón's government, the effort toward even limited reform at Pemex is in serious trouble. To understand why, do as Deep Throat famously advised Bob Woodward and "follow the money." Despite the myths, the reason Pemex is considered a sacred cow has much less to do with nationalism than with who benefits from its monopoly power.

Over the past decade, Mexico has wisely diversified away from oil production as the principal source of national income. But oil remains an important source of financing for the government. In 2006, the petroleum contribution to the federal budget was $43.9 billion, or 37%.

That income stream is in no way guaranteed in perpetuity. At the end of last month, Mr. Calderón's government released a 130-page study that found existing wells are drying up faster than new ones are coming on stream. Bottom line: Pemex production, as Energy Minister Georgina Kessel put it, has "fallen constantly" in the past three years. It's not that the oil is not there any longer. Reserves are plentiful. But they are not being exploited. As a result, she said, Mexico has "left on the table income of around $10 billion annually, almost three times the annual budget of 'oportunidades' [the government's social program targeting the poor], the principal tool in combating poverty."

In December 2006, daily output dropped below three million barrels per day for the first time since 2001, and it is expected to continue to shrink. By 2012 the minister says that production is forecast to drop by 800,000 barrels a day at its principal wells. By 2018 daily output will be down 1.5 million barrels.

 THE AMERICAS IN THE NEWS

 
Get the latest information in Spanish from The Wall Street Journal's Americas page.This dismal performance means that, as a global competitor, Pemex is losing out. The company is now the 11th-largest oil company in the world, having fallen from the No. 6 spot in 2004. "While other countries are enriching themselves through deep-water oil wells, our country simply wastes the opportunity and runs the risk of losing it," Ms. Kessel said.

Pemex is also incapable of serving the local market. "Today, four out of every 10 liters of gasoline consumed in the country are imported," Ms. Kessel said. At a Mexico-Norway energy conference last year, the Energy Ministry reported that gasoline demand is expected to grow annually by 3.9% over the next 10 years. Without new refinery capacity, Mexico will need to import 415,000 barrels a day by 2015. This is not good news for Americans facing rising prices. U.S. refining capacity is already overtaxed. The ministry says petrochemical imports are also expected to grow rapidly because the Mexican industry has "a disintegrated production chain, high production costs, low competitiveness and low levels of investment."

How to reverse this and turn Mexico into the booming oil country that it should be? That's easy: Allow private-property rights. Wildcatters would turn the country into a gusher of black gold. Mexican wealth would shoot up.

Such heresies cannot even be whispered in Mexico – though not because the Mexican people can't be convinced that there is a better way to run things. The reason is because the guardians of the status quo – politicians, suppliers and labor – would suffer if competition hit the market. Private Mexican contractors who "supply" Pemex are used to business transactions tied to political connections. If there were multiple buyers in competition with one another, those political profit margins would evaporate. Private-sector oil companies vying for returns would care about how much suppliers were charging. Competition would reduce the incentives for graft, and payrolls would have to be justified so the labor union would also lose power. The last special interest to want any of this change is Congress, where many members act as middlemen between Pemex and the contractor. As a famous member of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) once explained it: "A politician who is poor is a poor politician."

Still, without new investment Mexico will bid good-bye to its legacy as a world-class oil producer, and to the income that accompanies that status. So the government is looking for a way to allow the private sector into the oil industry without relinquishing the monopoly. As the Energy Ministry's report noted, all national petroleum companies now collaborate with third parties as a way to boost competitiveness.

Three months ago, congressional support for changes that would have allowed private-sector investment in distribution, refining and deep water exploration seemed within reach, because the PRI appeared ready to side with Mr. Calderón and his PAN party. Then it emerged that Mr. Calderón's interior minister signed Pemex contracts for his family business while working at the Energy Ministry. The interior minister says he did nothing wrong. But PRI leadership now says it will not support reform. What it really means is that now it has leverage to demand some new power in return for helping the Calderón government, caught in a scandal, to achieve a political victory.

Ironically, if the PRI blocks reform, it will preserve the very practices it now feigns outrage about. Considering the party's long history of corruption, it is difficult to see its objections as anything more than contract envy.

Meanwhile, Mr. Calderón warned last week that time is running short and the government must act "before it's too late." On the other hand, if the PRI wants to run Pemex into the ground, maybe Mr. Calderón should stand back and let it happen. It may be the only way to starve the most voracious of Mexican dinosaurs.

WSJ
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 14, 2008, 06:16:13 PM
Quiero mencionar que el hilo
http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=1079.50
tiene unos posts de interes en ingles sobre Mexico
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on May 16, 2008, 04:03:41 PM
Hola Marc/todos, como siempre un placer comunicarme con ustedes. Aunque mi nive en ingles no es bueno si entendí bastante del articulo de Marc, aprovecho para complementarlo con una composición de vários articulos dela revista Proceso de los meses de marzo y abril:

El diagnóstico efectuado por la Secretaria Kessel es parcial y tendencioso; ya que focaliza como única solución a la crisis de Pemex las alianzas estratégicas con empresas privadas extranjeras, pero oculta otros elementos de carácter reversible que podrían ofrecer alternativas a la paraestatal sin privatizarla. Entre los datos a analizar se oculta la terrible sangría fiscal a la que es expuesta, tan solo en el año pasado esta práctica originó perdidas por 16 mil 127 millones de pesos. La evaluación de la Secretaría de Energía (Sener), también encubre tres factores importantes que propiciaron el estado actual de la empresa. Durante el sexenio de Miguel de la Madrid se disolvió el Instituto Nacional del Petróleo, entidad de investigación científica y tecnológica de la paraestatal. En el sexenio de Salinas de Gortari se desmantelaron varias refinerías del país y se abandonó la petroquímica; derrochando con estas acciones mano de obra especializada, recursos económicos e impidiendo que el mercado interno tuviera combustibles y fertilizantes a bajo costo. El factor resultante de los dos anteriores es el férreo control burocrático a Pemex, situación que merma la capacidad interna para ejecutar planes y proyectos; al depender del presupuesto que le otorgue la federación en vez de administrar sus propios recursos.

Aunque las distintas fracciones del Congreso crearan comisiones para investigar la veracidad de la valoración de la Sener, esto no va a ser posible al menos en un periodo de entre 5 a 12 años, ya que dos meses antes de que esta Secretaría entregara la evaluación de la paraestatal, la Coordinación de Asesores de Pemex-refinación, ordenó que se colocara bajo reserva el expediente Autoevaluación del organismo. Este informe junto a los expedientes relativos a las franquicias, comercialización, cuentas bancarias, deudas, pagos y las decisiones del Consejo de Administración de Pemex y su Dirección General; forman parte de los 5 millones 69 mil 577 archivos restringidos a la investigación, colocados bajo resguardo del Instituto Federal de Acceso a la Información (Ifai), desde el sexenio de Vicente Fox. En lo que va del presente sexenio Calderón ha colocado en reserva 3 mil 332 documentos.

El Presidente Calderón explicó que antes de hacer declaraciones sobre la reforma energética era necesario conocer el estado real de Pemex, sin embargo una vez emitida la evaluación, no comentó nada al respecto. Como información oficial del tema, en el mes de marzo se trasmitió por televisión, en horario estelar, el video El tesoro de México. Al siguiente día las dos televisoras iniciaron una campaña mediática en sus programas cómicos, de la farándula y los dirigidos a las amas de casa; empezaron a repetir las frases tesoro de México o  tesoro escondido, pero de forma parcial y totalmente descontextualizada. Sin embargo el video polarizó nuevamente a la sociedad mexicana, ya que desde dos meses antes circulaba en la página de you tube el mismo video (cuya autoría era negada por la Sener y Pemex repetidamente), pero sin editar la palabra Alianza. La opinión pública interpreto esta diferencia de información como una mala señal de las intensiones del gobierno, el cual recibió un exhorto de la Coordinación Política de la Cámara de Diputados de suspender el spot televisivo, ya que confunde al público, al no presentar un diagnóstico claro, ni abordar opciones al problema. Semanas después durante una gira por Estados Unidos, Calderón ya había enviado su propuesta al Congreso, y comentó inflexible que de no aprobarse la reforma había tres opciones, dejar que la empresa se siguiera desgastando :?, subsidiarla con recursos del gasto social o tan sólo incorporar mejoras basadas en la experiencia de otros países.

Resulta lógico el interés del presidente Calderón y de su grupo por imponer la reforma energética al conocer que se ha beneficiado de este sector desde que, como legisladores, formaban parte de la Coordinación del Grupo Parlamentario del PAN (200-2003), en ese tiempo Juan Camilo Mouriño Terrazo, actual Secretario de Gobernación, ocupando la presidencia de la Comisión de Energía de la Cámara de Diputados, firmó el primero de los contratos denunciados por López Obrador. Los otros los firmaría cuando el grupo saltó a la Sener (en 2004) y Mouriño dirigía la Subsecretaría Energética y de Desarrollo Técnico, siendo su jefe directo Calderón. En otros puestos de dicha dependencia figuraba Cesar Nava como abogado general de Pemex, actual Secretario Particular de la presidencia; Manuel Minjares como Oficial Mayor, actual jefe de la Coordinación de Asesores de la Secretaría de Hacienda; José Antonio Prado Carranza (compañero en la carrera de abogado y amigo de Mouriño), como Gerente Jurídico de Convenios y Contratos en Pemex; labora actualmente en la Unidad de Asuntos Jurídicos de la Compañía de Luz y Fuerza del Centro. Otros personajes ligados a Calderón, con puestos estratégicos en la actual administración, para bloquear acciones legales y políticas en contra de este grupo (*) son Germán Martínez, Secretario de la Función Pública, actual Dirigente Nacional del Pan y Salvador Vega Casillas un ex priista del estado de Campeche (donde los Mouriño tienen sus principales empresas), actualmente en la Secretaría de la Función Pública.

Los contratos firmados por Mouriño en su carácter de funcionario público y al mismo tiempo como representante legal de la empresa contratista, no solamente lo comprometen a él por el delito de tráfico de influencias, sino que además por la estructura, normatividad y funcionamiento de la Sener, estaría implicado el propio Calderón, ya que Mouriño debió de informarle por escrito de contratos efectuados sin licitación. Cesar Nava por ser el encargado de revisar la legalidad de los contratos realizados por Pemex y Manuel MInjares porque debió de supervisar la documentación que recibía la Sener. Calderón por su parte el 14 de noviembre de 2003, incurrió en violaciones al artículo 27 constitucional cuando otorgó el primer contrato de servicios múltiples a la empresa española Repso, por 2 mil 437 millones de dólares, para explotar yacimientos de gas.

La reforma enviada por Calderón al Congreso, según especialistas en derecho constitucional de la Universidad Autónoma de México, contraviene el espíritu y la letra de los artículos 6, 25, 27, 28, 49, 73, 108, 109, 113, 126, 127 y 134 de la Constitución Política mexicana. La reforma pretende entregar a particulares nacionales y extranjeros la exploración, la perforación, la refinación, la petroquímica, el trasporte, los ductos, y el almacenamiento de petrolíferos; deja a Pemex como simple abastecedora de petróleo crudo. Lo mas grave es que esta reforma vulnera la soberanía nacional al conceder derechos a extranjeros y obligar al Gobierno mexicano ante cualquier controversia, a recurrir a tribunales internacionales. La reforma más que energética debe ser de carácter fiscal para evitar la discrecionalidad en los gravámenes impuestos a Pemex y otorgar plena autonomía de gestión a la paraestatal. Para facilitar el funcionamiento de la empresa, debe trabajarse en una coordinación operativa de la Sener, Pemex, Comisión Federal de Electricidad y el Banco de México. Para optimizar los recursos humanos y financieros, deben coordinarse con la paraestatal la Secretaría de la Función Pública, La Auditoria Superior y el Sindicato.

Un saludo a todos.

Omar.



* El artículo dice textualmente: garantizar la impunidad pública y privada del grupo en el poder.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 03, 2008, 07:02:09 PM
Mexico Security Memo: June 2, 2008
Stratfor Today » June 2, 2008 | 2137 GMT
Related Links
Tracking Mexico’s Drug Cartels
Record Violence, Same Government Response
Last month’s 493 drug-related killings in Mexico made May the deadliest month yet in the government’s fight against drug cartels, according to tallies reported by Mexican media. In addition to increasing overall violence, a closer look at the homicides reveals other disturbing — albeit not too surprising — trends. The 64 police officers killed during May is more than twice the average of 27 killed per month during January through April. The geographic distribution of the violence is a continuation of trends we observed over the past several months. The violence is concentrated primarily in areas controlled by the Juarez cartel, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman Loera, and the Beltran Leyva brothers. Chihuahua and Sinaloa states account for more than 50 percent of the killings, followed by Guerrero, Durango, Sonora, and Baja California states. Gulf territory states like Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas accounted for less than 3 percent of the killings.

The passing of yet another record month in Mexico’s struggle against the cartels provides an opportunity to consider the government’s response to the violence. Stratfor has been waiting for decisive action from the Mexican government since the May 8 assassination of the acting head of the country’s federal police. Such action has yet to occur, however, and recent statements by the administration of President Felipe Calderon gave no hint that any change in strategy is forthcoming. This past week, Calderon and several Cabinet secretaries publicly defended the administration’s strategy, citing progress thus far and repeating the oft-heard statement that this would be a long-term struggle requiring cooperation at all levels of government as well as with the military. Other activities such as routine small-scale troop deployments and raids continued as usual.

It is still unclear exactly what options Mexico City has in order to curb the escalating violence. For whatever reason, the government has not mobilized substantially more military forces over the past several months, opting instead to redeploy active forces from one hot spot to another. The government has 27,000 troops deployed to various hot spots of drug-trafficking related violence out of approximately 240,000 total troops. Other options, such as negotiating with cartel leaders, probably would not be practical given the fractured nature of criminal organizations in Mexico and their penchant for breaking their agreements. At this point, however, Calderon may not yet be feeling pressure to consider such options. The violence is still concentrated primarily among those involved in the drug trade and in cities long considered cartel strongholds. This certainly will not always be the case, and Stratfor has observed several ways in which violence is already increasingly affecting the civilian population. That, combined with the increasing threat to police, probably will represent the tipping point after which the government steps up its operations as the war on the cartels continues to escalate.

Border Smuggling Happenings
Two men were shot dead this week at a ranch located near Guadalupe, Chihuahua state, a small town which lies just across the border from Tornillo, Texas, on a remote part of the border. One of the victims was a former mayor of Guadalupe; his daughter was killed three days later on the day of the ex-mayor’s funeral when a man traveling in a vehicle shot her while she was driving. Her seven-year-old daughter was wounded in the attack, which according to many reports occurred as she was driving as part of her father’s funeral procession. Police have not announced a motive for the killings, and there is no known connection between this family and smuggling or drug trafficking organizations. This incident highlights the value to smugglers of private property adjacent to the border, however, and such violence directed against families seems consistent with narcotics activity.

Authorities in the United States believe the majority of illicit drugs entering the United States from Mexico arrive via official ports of entry, either hidden among legitimate goods or in the trunks of cars waved through by corrupt border officials. A smaller portion of drugs are smuggled through tunnels or overland through holes in border fences. Frequently, these smuggling efforts are aided by private property owners along the international border, who own land where drug shipments can be staged before finally being exported to the United States. While these types of smugglings are believed to constitute a minority of drug shipments to the United States, however, continuing security operations and the arrests of corrupt border officials in cartel strongholds like Reynosa and Ciudad Juarez may prompt drug traffickers to rely more heavily on remote locations like Guadalupe to bring drugs across the border.





(click to view map)

May 27
Seven federal agents died during a raid on a safe-house in Culiacan, Sinaloa state, which sparked a four hour firefight. The suspects in the safe-house repelled the raid with automatic weapons and fragmentation grenades. The incident claimed the largest number of federal agents killed in a single action during the fight against the cartels.
Authorities in Mexico City announced the deployment of 200 additional federal agents to Sinaloa state as part of a “complete offensive” against organized crime there.
The body of an unidentified man was found in a vehicle near Mexico City, wrapped in a blanket and with two gunshot wounds.
Soldiers in Suchiate, Chiapas state, reported the seizure of approximately 500 pounds of cocaine from a farm. The drugs were found hidden among a truck full of bananas.
The bodies of three men were found along a road in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state. They were bound at the hands and appeared to have been shot execution style.
May 28
Two severed heads were found along a highway in Durango state. A note next to one of the heads read, in part, “We can respond too.”
The body of a state police commander in Sinaloa state was found along a river near Culiacan, Sinaloa state. Authorities believe he had been abducted the day before.
A former federal agent died in Mexico City after being shot nine times outside his home midday. He reportedly had worked at Mexico City’s international airport, and been involved in the seizure of drug and ephedra shipments destined for the Sinaloa cartel. The assassinations of other federal police officers also have been linked to drug shipments at the airport.
The body of a woman was found alongside a highway in Tabasco state along with a note that read, in part, “Keep talking, informant. The army is not going to protect you and yours.”
Motorists in Zapotlan del Rey, Jalisco state, found a suitcase on a roadside that contained the body of an unidentified woman bearing signs of torture.
May 29
Four unidentified men, one of whom may have been a police officer, were shot by gunmen in a vehicle as they stood outside a store in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state.
One man died and another was wounded when they were shot by gunmen as they traveled in a vehicle in Zapopan, Jalisco state.
May 30
Authorities in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, reported discovering the body of a man beside a road along with a note that read, in part, “To those that still don’t believe and work with El Chapo Guzman. Sincerely, La Linea.”
The police chiefs of two towns in Chihuahua state — Nuevo Casas Grandes and Ignacio Zaragoza — resigned from their positions.
June 1
Federal police arrested eight men and one woman in a suspected cartel safe-house in Reynosa, Tamaulipas state. During the raid, authorities seized firearms, grenades, eight vehicles, radios, more than 8,000 rounds of ammunition, and 60 pounds of cocaine.
The bodies of two men and one woman with several gunshot wounds were found at an intersection in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on July 07, 2008, 02:42:37 PM

Hola a todos.

Hace algunos meses escuchaba el programa de radio Encuentros y Desencuentros del periodista Carlos Ramírez y se comentaba acerca de la polémica elección del PRD. El titular del programa opinaba sobre el tema en la misma forma que lo hacía la mayoría de los medios de comunicación, sin embargo en esa ocasión estaba como invitado un analista de la Facultad de Ciencias Políticas de la UNAM y el comentó que los medios maximizaban el problema, ya que la elección presentaba los problemas lógicos de un instituto político donde hay candidatos reales que representan proyectos diferentes y una militancia activa que apoya una u otra visión. Puntualizaba que el problema real del PRD, es su pésimo manejo de imagen ante los medios, su falta de tacto al resolver sus problemas internos y su negligencia para respetar los liderazgos coyunturales. Este análisis me pareció muy interesante pero no tenía un ejemplo practico de cómo se manejaban las cosas a lo interno del PAN, ya que en el PRI es de dominio público como opera el cambio de su dirigencia.

Cuando preparaba mi colaboración para el foro el mes pasado, en el artículo de la revista Proceso: Chicos Poderosos, encontré un ejemplo reciente y contundente de cómo el PAN maneja la sucesión de su presidencia de forma civilizada, lo que sigue es la introducción integra del artículo y después un resumen de la primera parte del mismo:

La actuación de Juan Camilo Mouriño a lo largo de su corta carrera política acusa un estilo que los panistas consideran ajeno a ellos: la prebenda, el uso del cargo público con fines mercantilistas, la compra de voluntades... se trata de un proceder que por cierto, es ya la marca distintiva del actual secretario de Gobernación, pero también de los chicos poderosos con los que se agrupa.
[/i]

Días antes de la toma de posesión de Felipe Calderón el 1 de diciembre de 2006, Juan Camilo Mouriño Terrazo, entonces Coordinador del equipo de transición de Calderón y ubicado como el personaje más influyente de la nueva administración, se reunía con Enrique Navarro (secretario de fortalecimiento interior del Comité Ejecutivo Nacional del PAN) y con Manuel Espino (presidente nacional del partido), para negociar la salida de este último a favor de Germán Martínez. Ya que el propósito de Calderón es controlar directamente al PAN y su objetivo es tener al frente a una gente de su confianza, así como mayoría en el Congreso Nacional... a quienes no estén de acuerdo, los vamos a convencer ofreciéndoles puestos en el gobierno... En el caso de Manuel Espino, Mouriño le ofreció una embajada, el resultado fue que ni siquiera presentó una solicitud de reelección para el cargo.

Actuando de forma similar, el 27 de abril de 2007, en su casa de Campeche, Juan Camilo ofreció 40 subdelegaciones con sueldos de entre 20 mil a 45 mil pesos mensuales a cambio de lealtad al candidato de Calderón. Jorge Nordhousen, actual Diputado federal del PAN, fue uno de los asistentes a esa reunión y comenta que Calderón le otorgó a su operador político autoridad discrecional para repartir el poder, sin importar que los beneficiados cubrieran o no, el perfil para el puesto.

Pasando por alto el evidente manejo de información privilegiada y el delito de tráfico de influencias en que Mouriño incurrió cuando firmó los millonarios contratos con Pemex, siendo a la vez servidor público y Director de finanzas, así como Gerente Administrativo de IVANCAR SA de CV (una de las 80 empresas del Grupo Energético del Sureste, emporio familiar de los Mouriño), Germán Martínez, agradecido por el cabildeo que lo llevó en diciembre de 2007 a la presidente del PAN sin elección alguna, declaró:

él es una muestra de la nueva clase política que esta construyendo al país, una buena muestra de profesionalismo, de decencia pública y capacidad... ¡Eso representa Juan Camilo Mouriño!

Nos vemos pronto.

Omar
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Bob Burgee on July 22, 2008, 07:37:14 AM
     
Posted on behalf of Crafty Dog.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on September 05, 2008, 01:50:56 PM
Hola a todos.

Ya me atrasé un mes :-D, espero reponerlo con otro resumen este mismo mes, un tanto relacionado con el video que Marc compartiócon nosotros, pero desgraciadamente habla de un encubrimiento de actividades ilicitas en Baja california y Sonora; pero eso será un poco después.

El analista político Lorenzo Meyer ha definido el carácter del presente gobierno como una dictadura de closet, que emplea un lenguaje de medias verdades, en su afán de ocultar, en principio, su ilegitimidad y en general el deterioro de la vida pública y social que ha sufrido el país desde hace dos años. Lo que sigue es un resumen de dos artículos aparecidos entre los meses de junio y julio de este año, uno en el periódico la Jornada (en la columna Desfiladero) y otro en el semanario Proceso titulado Las mentiras de Calderón; ambos artículos ofrecen un ejemplo de lo mencionado por el analista Meyer: las medias verdades. Lo curioso es que la disparidad entre las declaraciones del gobierno y la realidad no es producto de una denuncia de la oposición, sino de la información proporcionada por otros órganos de gobierno o por empresas afines al mismo:

Durante una conferencia de prensa y después de un pacto con industriales del ramo alimenticio, Calderón anunció una lista de 150 productos, los cuales (según él), son alimentos de enorme consumo popular que mantendrán su precio al público hasta enero del año entrante. Posteriormente la oficina de la presidencia, matiza la declaración en un discreto mensaje, los productos son 24 desglosados en 140 presentaciones.

Al siguiente día Banamex, denuncia que los enlatados (atún, sardinas, frijoles, chiles), los jugos (de verdura, fruta, soya) y las salsas (para spaghetti); así como catsup, aceitunas, mermeladas, flanes, sapas instantáneos, pimienta y especias en polvo, que forman la totalidad de la lista, son productos con baja cobertura de mercado y que su efecto es marginal para mitigar el alza generalizada en los precios de los alimentos. Además líderes sindicales y agrarios declaran que alimentos como el aceite, atún, sardina, mayonesas y purés han sido reetiquetados repetidamente desde principios de este año y hasta la fecha han aumentado su precio en porcentajes que van desde el 3.5 al 32.6 % . Lo más grave es que meses antes, la Secretaria de Salud Federal, calificó a 25 bebidas incluidas en la lista mencionada, como riesgosas para el consumo humano, ya que contienen altos porcentajes de sodio, de edulcorantes, carecen de verdura o fruta y son desencadenantes de enfermedades como obesidad y diabetes  :-o.

El 11 de febrero del presente año, durante un discurso en la Universidad de Harvard, el presidente mexicano declaró...empezamos operaciones con la participación del ejercito, la marina, fuerzas policíacas federales y locales. Tomamos control de todos esos territorios... los golpeamos y los golpeamos muy duro... capturamos 22 mil personas vinculadas en actividades criminales, confiscamos 25 toneladas de cocaína y 250 millones de dólares... extraditamos a Estados Unidos a 100 jefes del narco, etc.

Basado en esos datos el Semanario Proceso solicitó a la Oficina de Enlace de la Presidencia, que precisara estos datos en relación al giro de la actividad ilícita, fecha y lugar de captura, sitio de reclusión, numero de detenidos en proceso judicial, condenas, numero de condenados, numero de militares involucrados, etc. La respuesta de la oficina fue clara -le comunicamos la inexistencia de la información solicitada, en los archivos de esta dependencia no existen documentos con esa información... cita además un articulo de la ley que le impide investigar esos datos y remite para su atención a la Secretaria de Seguridad Pública.

A partir de ese momento el semanario fue turnado a distintas dependencias, cada una de las cuales le respondía de forma similar a la citada, pero quien dio la respuesta más original fue la Procuraduría General de Justicia –la Oficina de Enlace de la Presidencia es la dependencia facultada para proporcionar la información solicitada-   :?. En ese gestionar, Proceso solicitó la información con la Secretaria de la Defensa Nacional (Sedena) y sorprendentemente fue la única dependencia que aportó un dato concreto: 4 mil 763 personas en flagrancia de delitos contra la salud (narcotráfico) y violación a la ley federal de armas de fuego y explosivos.; Este dato arroja una diferencia de mas de 18 mil personas con respecto a la cifra de Calderón.

Otra disparidad fue detectada por el periódico Reforma, cuando en una reunión del Gabinete de Seguridad del 31 de agosto de 2007, el procurador Eduardo Medina Mora proporcionó la cifra de 12 mil 344 detenidos en los anteriores 9 meses. Cuando este diario solicitó al Instituto Federal de Acceso a la Información (IFAI), que precisara la información, esta institución informó que la cifra más alta de detenidos, 8mil 422 personas, fue durante el año 2005; no coincidiendo con la cifra ni con el periodo mencionado por el funcionario.

El académico del Colegio de México Sergio Aguayo, comentó que la Presidencia, urgida por una legitimidad que no a obtenido en dos años de gobierno, esta más interesada en deslumbrar a la opinión pública y sobretodo a la opinión pública extranjera... aunque sus informes estén faltos de precisión, sustento y coherencia. El académico especifica que las cifras infladas pueden deberse a que incluyen a los consumidores de droga, hecho que solo indicaría una omisión de parte del ejecutivo; sin embargo la disparidad de las cifras entre las dependencias del Gabinete de Seguridad, demuestra su falta absoluta de coordinación y peor la inexistencia de un aparato de inteligencia...varias son las opiniones que ubican a los logros de Calderón respecto a las incautaciones de cocaína y de dinero como resultado de información de las agencias de inteligencia colombiana y estadounidense... concluye.

Nos vemos pronto.

Omar
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 10, 2008, 01:35:36 AM
Se me informa que el articulo que hizo el servicio de noticias Reuters sobre nuestro "Dog Brothers Gathering of the Pack" se ha publicado en el periodico "El Universal" de Mexico.  Se lo agradeceria si alguien aqui pudiera localizarlo y "post" (?Como se dice "to post"?) lo aqui.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: xxxaviergs on September 17, 2008, 01:41:42 PM
Estuve rastreando la nota, pero aún no la encuentro para publicar la liga. Sigo trabajndo en ello. Saludos
Title: Ropa contra balas
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 05, 2008, 08:13:41 PM
Bullet Proof Clothes In Mexico

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By Marc Lacey
Published: October 6, 2008

MEXICO CITY: Exclusive clothing boutiques line Avenida Presidente Masarik here. A Burberry coat? A Corneliani suit? A Gucci scarf? Have enough pesos, and they are yours.

But tucked on a leafy side street in the Polanco neighborhood is a shop unlike the others, one whose bustling business says much about the dire state of security in this country. At Miguel Caballero, named after its Colombian owner, all the garments are bulletproof.

There are bulletproof leather jackets and bulletproof polo shirts. Armored guayabera shirts hang next to protective windbreakers, parkas and even white ruffled tuxedo shirts. Every member of the sales staff has had to take a turn being shot while wearing one of the products, which range from a few hundred dollars to as much as $7,000, so they can attest to the efficacy of the secret fabric.

"If feels like a punch," a salesman said of the shot to the stomach he received.

Just who is willing to fork over thousands of dollars for these chic shields? Customers include Presidents Hugo Chávez of Venezuela and Álvaro Uribe of Colombia, not to mention assorted royalty, movie stars and other VIP's.

As Mexico grapples with an increase in drug-related violence, sales are steadily on the rise, the company said, though it declined to provide precise figures.

Those who duck into the private boutique, passing first through a metal detector, run the gamut.

There is the surgeon who finishes work at the hospital late and feels vulnerable while walking through the parking lot to his car. Now, that potential burglar can take a shot at him with a .38-caliber revolver, a 9-millimeter pistol or a submachine gun and still not pierce his lightweight, heat-resistant and quite fashionable coat.

There is the newspaper distributor who has scores of employees who collect papers from him in the wee hours of the morning to drop at doorsteps across the capital. He stopped at the boutique the other day for a jacket that can keep him in business even if someone tried to knock him off and take the rolls of cash he carries around.

There is the bullfighter who is scared not of bulls but of bullets and consequently ordered a matador's suit that can withstand gunfire.

Then there are Mexican politicians and business executives, some who have received threats and others who want to supplement their existing security measures, which in many cases already include bulletproof cars, home alarm systems, round-the-clock bodyguards and panic buttons.

"What we offer is one more chance at life," said Javier Di Carlo, the marketing manager, as he showed off the top-of-the-line Black collection in a private fitting room. "We don't want people to say to the criminal, 'Shoot me.' Nobody should feel like Superman. But if the criminal does shoot, we give our customers a chance to run away."

There is a whole lot of shooting going on in Mexico today. Every day, the papers are full of victims, bodies lying out in grotesque poses with bullet wounds all about. Some are garden-variety crime victims, but the drug cartels that control much of the Mexican countryside are behind the overwhelming majority. They pay off politicians and police officers and act as shadow governments in town after town along their transit routes. Cross them, and they do not hesitate to pull the trigger.

The rash of drug violence, together with a surge in kidnappings for ransom, has shaken everyday Mexicans. Ask a stranger for directions on the street these days, and fear is the first emotion that crosses the person's face. He or she might recover enough to describe how to go this way or that.

Studies have shown that more and more anxious Mexicans are pouring their money into defensive measures. Families and businesses across Mexico invest $18 billion in private security measures, a recent study by the Center for Economic Studies of the Private Sector found. Some people are trying to get their hands on weapons, which are tightly regulated here but widely available on the black market. To some, bulletproof fashion is the logical next step.

Still, not everybody is lining up. Jon French, a former State Department official who now runs a security company in Mexico City, said he considered the bulletproof luxury items more about ego than anything else. Most of the killings that fill the front pages — there have been 3,000 this year alone — are drug traffickers killing rivals, he pointed out.

"Certain members of the well-to-do class here have a tendency to be ostentatious," French said. "You see it in their bodyguards and chase cars. Some of this is so while at the country club they can talk about how protected they are. Now they can say, 'Look, I'm wearing body armor!' "
But Caballero, who opened the Mexico store two years ago and has since expanded with branches in Guatemala City, Johannesburg and London, counters by telling of his loyalty club program for clients. Called the Survivor's Club, it is open to anyone whose life was saved by wearing one of his protective garments. Its rolls, he said in a telephone interview from Bogotá, are on the rise.

To lower the chance that he is outfitting the bad guys, Caballero runs background checks on customers, checking their names against lists of fugitives compiled by the United States and Mexican governments. He points out that the clothing is not designed for the kind of warfare that is breaking out in some parts of Mexico, where drug assassins have used rocket launchers and grenades to wipe out rivals.

A bulletproof polo shirt is meant more to repel random street violence, of the kind that seemed as if it just might break out just around the corner from Caballero's shop the other day.

Fernando Arias Carmona, a salesman, wore one of the protective leather coats while he sat at a café on Masarik being photographed. People looking on inquired into what was the fuss was about. When told that Carmona's fashionable jacket was bulletproof, a man at the next table reached into his own jacket and said, "Let me test it out."

Fortunately, though, the man pulled out only with his fingers in the shape of a pistol.

Then, looking at the coat again, he said, "I want one of those."
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 12, 2008, 10:31:27 PM
Disculpe que lo siguiente sea en ingles.  Si alguien tiene un software para traducirlo, se lo agradeceria:

Worrying Signs from Border Raids
November 12, 2008




By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart

Related Special Topic Page
Tracking Mexico’s Drug Cartels
Last week, the Mexican government carried out a number of operations in Reynosa, Tamaulipas, aimed at Jaime “El Hummer” Gonzalez Duran, one of the original members of the brutal cartel group known as Los Zetas. According to Mexican government officials, Gonzalez Duran controlled the Zetas’ operations in nine Mexican states.

The Nov. 7 arrest of Gonzalez Duran was a major victory for the Mexican government and will undoubtedly be a major blow to the Zetas. Taking Gonzalez Duran off the streets, however, is not the only aspect of these operations with greater implications. The day before Gonzalez Duran’s arrest, Mexican officials searching for him raided a safe house, where they discovered an arms cache that would turn out to be the largest weapons seizure in Mexican history. This is no small feat, as there have been several large hauls of weapons seized from the Zetas and other Mexican cartel groups in recent years.

The weapons seized at the Gonzalez Duran safe house included more than 500 firearms, a half-million rounds of ammunition and 150 grenades. The cache also included a LAW rocket, two grenade launchers and a small amount of explosives. Along with the scores of assorted assault rifles, grenades and a handful of gaudy gold-plated pistols were some weapons that require a bit more examination: namely, the 14 Fabrique Nationale (FN) P90 personal defense weapons and the seven Barrett .50-caliber sniper rifles contained in the seizure.

Matapolicias
As previously noted, the FN Five-Seven pistol and FN P90 personal defense weapon are very popular with the various cartel enforcer groups operating in Mexico. The Five-Seven and the P90 shoot a 5.7 mm-by-28 mm round that has been shown to be effective in penetrating body armor as well as vehicle doors and windows. Because of this ability to punch through body armor, cartel enforcers call the weapons “matapolicias,” Spanish for “cop killers.” Of course, AK-47 and M-16-style assault rifles are also effective at penetrating body armor and vehicles, as are large-caliber hunting rifles such as the 30.06 and the .308. But the advantage of the Five-Seven and the P90 is that they provide this penetration capability in a much smaller — and thus far more concealable — package.

The P90 is a personal defense weapon designed to be carried by tank crew members or combat support personnel who require a compact weapon capable of penetrating body armor. It is considered impractical for such soldiers to be issued full-size infantry rifles or even assault rifles, so traditionally these troops were issued pistols and submachine guns. The proliferation of body armor on the modern battlefield, however, has rendered many pistols and submachine guns that fire pistol ammunition ineffective. Because of this, support troops needed a small weapon that could protect them from armored troops; the P90 fits this bill.

In fact, the P90 lends itself to anyone who needs powerful, concealable weapons. Protective security details, some police officers and some special operations forces operators thus have begun using the P90 and other personal defense weapons. The P90’s power and ability to be concealed also make it an ideal weapon for cartel enforcers intent on conducting assassinations in an urban environment — especially those stalking targets wearing body armor.

The Five-Seven, which is even smaller than the P90, fires the same fast, penetrating cartridge. Indeed, cartel hit men have killed several Mexican police officers with these weapons in recent months. However, guns that fire the 5.7 mm-by-28 mm cartridge are certainly not the only type of weapons used in attacks against police — Mexican cops have been killed by many other types of weapons.

Reach Out and Touch Someone
While the P90 and Five-Seven are small and light, and use a small, fast round to penetrate armor, the .50-caliber cartridge fired by a Barrett sniper rifle is the polar opposite: It fires a huge chunk of lead. By way of comparison, the 5.7 mm-by-28 mm cartridge is just a little more than 1.5 inches long and has a 32-grain bullet. The .50-caliber Browning Machine Gun (BMG) cartridge is actually 12.7 mm by 99 mm, measures nearly 5.5 inches long and fires a 661-grain bullet. The P90 has a maximum effective range of 150 meters (about 165 yards), whereas a Barrett’s listed maximum effective range is 1,850 meters (about 2,020 yards) — and there are reports of coalition forces snipers in Afghanistan scoring kills at more than 2,000 meters (about 2,190 yards).

The .50-BMG round not only will punch through body armor and normal passenger vehicles, it can defeat the steel plate armor and the laminated ballistic glass and polycarbonate windows used in lightly armored vehicles. This is yet another reminder that there is no such thing as a bulletproof car. The round is also capable of penetrating many brick and concrete block walls.

We have heard reports for years of cartels seeking .50-caliber sniper rifles made by Barrett and other U.S. manufacturers. Additionally, we have noted many reports of seizures from arms smugglers in the United States of these weapons bound for Mexico, or of the weapons being found in Mexican cartel safe houses — such as the seven rifles seized in Reynosa. Unlike the P90s, however, we cannot recall even one instance of these powerful weapons being used in an attack against another cartel or against a Mexican government target. This is in marked contrast to Ireland, where the Irish Republican Army used .50-caliber Barrett rifles obtained from the United States in many sniper attacks against British troops and the Royal Ulster Constabulary.

That Mexican cartels have not used these devastating weapons is surprising. There are in fact very few weapons in the arsenals of cartel enforcers that we have not seen used, including hand grenades, 40 mm grenades, LAW rockets and rocket-propelled grenades. Even though most intercartel warfare has occurred inside densely populated Mexican cities such as Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez and Nuevo Laredo — places where it would be very difficult to find a place to take a shot longer than a few hundred meters, much less a couple thousand — the power of the Barrett could be very effective for taking out targets wearing body armor, riding in armored vehicles, located inside the safe house of a rival cartel or even inside a government building. Also, unlike improvised explosive devices, which the cartels have avoided using for the most part, the use of .50-caliber rifles would not involve a high probability of collateral damage.

This indicates that the reason the cartels have not used these weapons is to be found in the nature of snipers and sniping.

Snipers
Most military and police snipers are highly trained and very self-disciplined. Being a sniper requires an incredible amount of practice, patience and preparation. Aside from rigorous training in marksmanship, the sniper must also be trained in camouflage, concealment and movement. Snipers are often forced to lie immobile for hours on end. Additional training is required for snipers operating in urban environments, which offer their own set of challenges to the sniper; though historically, as seen in battles like Stalingrad, urban snipers can be incredibly effective.

Snipers commonly deploy as part of a team of two, comprising a shooter and a spotter. This means two very self-disciplined individuals must be located and trained. The team must practice together and learn how to accurately estimate distances, wind speed, terrain elevation and other variables that can affect a bullet’s trajectory. An incredible amount of attention to detail is required for a sniper team to get into position and for their shots to travel several hundred meters and accurately, consistently strike a small target.

In spite of media hype and popular fiction, criminals or terrorists commit very few true sniper attacks. For example, many of our sniper friends were very upset that the media chose to label the string of murders committed by John Mohammed and Lee Boyd Malvo as the “D.C. Sniper Case.” While Mohammed and Malvo did use concealment, they commonly shot at targets between 50 and 100 meters (about 55 yards to 110 yards) away. Therefore, calling Mohammed and Malvo snipers was a serious insult to the genuine article. The assassinations of President John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr., as well as the killing of Dr. Bernard Slepian, also have been dubbed sniper attacks, but they actually were all shootings committed at distances of less than 100 meters.

Of course, using a Barrett at short ranges (100 meters or less) is still incredibly effective and does not require a highly trained sniper — as a group of Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives special agents found out in 1993 when they attempted to serve search and arrest warrants at the Branch Davidian compound in Waco, Texas. The agents were met with .50-caliber sniper fire that ripped gaping holes through the Chevrolet Suburbans they sought cover behind. Many of the agents wounded in that incident were hit by the shrapnel created as the .50-caliber rounds punched through their vehicles.

While it is extremely powerful, the Barrett is however a long, heavy weapon. If the sniper lacks training in urban warfare, it might prove very difficult to move around with the gun and also to find a concealed place to employ it. This may partially explain why the Mexican cartels have not used the weapons more.

Moreover, while the Zetas originally comprised deserters from the Mexican military and over the years have shown an ability to conduct assaults and ambushes, we have not traditionally seen them deploy as snipers. Today, most of the original Zetas are now in upper management, and no longer serve as foot soldiers.

The newer men brought into the Zetas include some former military and police officers along with some young gangster types; most of them lack the level of training possessed by the original Zetas. While the Zetas have also brought on a number of former Kaibiles, Guatemalan special operations forces personnel, most of them appear to be assigned as bodyguards for senior Zetas. This may mean we are not seeing the cartels employ snipers because their rank-and-file enforcers do not possess the discipline or training to function as snipers.

Potential Problems
Of course, criminal syndicates in possession of these weapons still pose a large potential threat to U.S. law enforcement officers, especially when the weapons are in the hands of people like Gonzalez Duran and his henchmen. According to an FBI intelligence memo dated Oct. 17 and leaked to the media, Gonzalez Duran appeared to have gotten wind of the planned operation against him. He reportedly had authorized those under his command to defend their turf at any cost, to include engagements with U.S. law enforcement agents. It is important to remember that a chunk of that turf was adjacent to the U.S. border and American towns, and that Reynosa — where Gonzalez Duran was arrested and the weapons were seized — is just across the border from McAllen, Texas.

Armed with small, powerful weapons like the P90, cartel gunmen can pose a tremendous threat to any law enforcement officer who encounters them in a traffic stop or drug raid. Over the past several years, we have noted several instances of U.S. Border Patrol agents and other U.S. law enforcement officers being shot at from Mexico. The thought of being targeted by a weapon with the range and power of a .50-caliber sniper rifle would almost certainly send chills up the spine of any Border Patrol agent or sheriff’s deputy working along the border.

Armed with assault rifles, hand grenades and .50-caliber sniper rifles, cartel enforcers have the potential to wreak havoc and outgun U.S. law enforcement officers. The only saving grace for U.S. law enforcement is that many cartel enforcers are often impaired by drugs or alcohol and tend to be impetuous and reckless. While the cartel gunmen are better trained than most Mexican authorities, their training does not stack up to that of most U.S. law enforcement officers. This was illustrated by an incident on Nov. 6 in Austin, Texas, when a police officer used his service pistol to kill a cartel gunman who fired on the officer with an AK-47.

While the arrest of Gonzalez Duran and the seizure of the huge arms cache in Reynosa have taken some killers and weapons off the street, they are only one small drop in the bucket. There are many heavily armed cartel enforcers still at large in Mexico, and the violence is spreading over the border into the United States. Law enforcement officers in the United States therefore need to maintain a keen awareness of the threat.

Tell Stratfor What You Think

This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with attribution to www.stratfor.com
 
Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us
© Copyright 2008 Stratfor. All rights reserved. 
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on November 14, 2008, 05:23:47 PM
Hola a todos, me retrase en la colaboración debido a la gran cantidad de información que esta fluyendo en México: crisis económica, reprivatización de recursos naturales y por supuesto la guerra contra el narcotráfico. Espero que haya escogido un tema interesante para compartir con ustedes.

Una de las razones que el presidente de México utiliza para justificar el uso del ejército con fines policíacos es la tradición histórica de incorruptibilidad de esta institución, sin embargo, ¿Qué sucede cuando el mando político, es el que esta aliado con los criminales? ¿Que postura adoptaría un militar patriota y convencido de su misión? En relación con esta reflexión, encontré una nota en el periódico la Jornada del 12 de agosto de 2008, de la columna Dinero, a cargo de Enrique Galván Ochoa, titulada El general que resistió los cañonazos. Para quien desconozca el significado de los cañonazos, se refiere a un soborno, ya que, no recuerdo en este momento al personaje histórico, pero declaró que nadie resistía un cañonazo de 50 mil pesos.

Lo siguiente es la versión integra de la nota:

El general de división Sergio Aponte Polito fue hasta hace unos días comandante de la segunda Región Militar; abarca los estados de Sonora y las dos Baja Californias. Emprendió una batalla muy fuerte contra el hampa, abrió una línea telefónica para que el público hiciera denuncias, asestó varios golpes a la delincuencia y algo importantísimo, se ganó la confianza de las familias y los hombres de negocios. Pronto se dio cuenta de que algunos de los funcionarios de la procuraduría de justicia de Baja California (norte), estaban coludidos con los hampones y los denunció en una comentada carta que publicó en la prensa local. El balconazo (la denuncia), provocó el enojo del gobernador panista José Guadalupe (Lupillo) Osuna Millán, pero el militar le contestó con pruebas contundentes.

No fue la primera fricción. En febrero de 2007, cuando otro panista, Eugenio Elorduy, aún gobernante de la entidad, el jefe militar responsabilizó a su administración de proteger al narcotráfico. Elorduy, multimillonario, temporalmente está en la banca (no tiene cargo público), es del equipo de Santiago Creel  :?(senador panista, antiguo secretario de gobernación). En cambio Lupillo Osuna Millán es de los cercanos de Felipe Calderón :-o.

¿Cuál creen que fue el epílogo de la escaramuza? ¿Abrieron juicio político al gobernador, llamaron a cuentas al ex gobernador, iniciaron un expediente contra los funcionarios a los que denunció? No, nada de eso. Quitaron al general. El día primero de este mes (agosto), recibió la notificación de que debería salir de Baja California –a la voz de ¡rompan filas!- y concéntrense en la ciudad de México... hasta eso que lo removieron con elegancia, fue nombrado presidente del Supremo Tribunal Militar.

Sucesos como este nos muestran la enorme distancia que existe entre las palabras y los hechos. Un general que resistió los cañonazos de la corrupción fue removido porque estorbaba a los funcionarios del gobierno panista bajacaliforniano. Cotejo con la realidad el discurso del secretario de Gobernación, Juan Camilo Mouriño, ayer anunciando nuevas acciones contra la delincuencia, el secuestro en particular, suena hueco. Es más o menos lo que dijo Vicente Fox cuando presentó su programa de 20 puntos después de la marcha ciudadana de junio de 2004: Pasaron cuatro años y la situación está peor :roll:.

Espero participar muy pronto de nuevo :-D.

Saludos

Omar
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: omar on November 14, 2008, 05:36:50 PM
Hola nuevamente, como dije antes, la información fluye y parece que el gobierno en mi país le apuesta a la falta de memoria de la población y no se preocupa de que las declaraciones de sus funcionarios coincidan :|. Desde que inició el conflicto social y político por la propuesta de reforma energética de Calderón, por todo medio posible, él y su gabinete, declaraban que la reforma pretendía modernizar no privatizar, sin embargo el debate que se organizó en el senado (gracias al movimiento nacional en defensa del petróleo organizado por López Obrador, intelectuales, artistas y técnicos), demostró que la intensión de la iniciativa presidencial era privatizar la exploración, la perforación, la refinación, la petroquímica, el trasporte, los ductos, y el almacenamiento de petrolíferos. Este descuido en las declaraciones quedó demostrado el día martes de esta semana, en la editorial del periódico La Jornada, titulada La confesión de Kessel, lo que sigue es el texto integro:

Ayer en el contexto del foro empresarial de México, cumbre de negocios que se realiza en Monterrey, Nuevo León, la titular de la Secretaria de Energía (Sener), Georgina Kesse, dijo: Alrededor del 70% de las actividades de Pemex (Petróleos Mexicanos) en exploración y producción ya las realizan otras empresas Tal declaración representa una confesión de ilegalidad, un reconocimiento de que la recién aprobada y aun no promulgada reforma petrolera, simplemente busca regularizar una práctica ilícita y una admisión de que el laberíntico proceso que condujo a su aprobación ha sido una simulación y una impostura del gobierno federal y de sus aliados en el Congreso.

Es necesario recordar que la Ley Reglamentaria del artículo 27 constitucional, aún vigente, afirma que solo la nación podrá llevar a cabo las distintas exploraciones de los hidrocarburos, que constituyen la industria petrolera (la cual) abarca (entre otras cosas) la exploración, la explotación, la refinación, el trasporte, el almacenamiento, la distribución y las ventas de primera mano del petróleo y de los productos que se obtengan de su refinación. Es decir, el gobierno actual y los precedentes han venido violando en forma deliberada y reiterada la carta magna y la ley reglamentaria lo que conlleva una gravísima responsabilidad política y las reformas referidas han sido una mera forma de cobertura legal a una situación de facto a todas luces ilícitas.

Por añadidura, la funcionaria dijo que las modificaciones pactadas por los Pinos con las Bancadas de Acción Nacional, el Revolucionario Institucional y un sector del Partido de la Revolución Democrática tienen los mismos objetivos que la iniciativa abiertamente privatizadora que el titular del ejecutivo federal, Felipe Calderón, envió al Senado el 8 de abril. La pregunta obligada es, entonces, ¿para que se incluyeron en esa propuesta párrafos e incisos que entregaban segmentos enteros de la industria petrolera a consorcios particulares, a sabiendas que habría de enfrentar una fuerte oposición política, social, técnica, y porque no se optó desde un principio por enviar una versión menos impresentable, como la que finalmente se aprobó? Sea cual fuere la respuesta, queda en el aire, tras las declaraciones de la titular de la Sener, una sensación de trampa, de simulación, de tomadura de pelo, como lo fue, desde un principio, la versión gubernamental de que las iniciativas inicialmente ensayadas no eran privatizadoras.

Cabe preguntarse, por lo demás, ¿qué explicación darán a sus bases y a sus electores los dirigentes y legisladores perredeistas Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, Graco Ramírez, Carlos Navarrete y otros que se sumaron con entusiasmo y orgullo a una maniobra que, ahora es meridianamente claro, apuntaba a legalizar una privatización que ya se venía dando en los hechos :x.

En cualquier forma, la escandalosa declaración de Kessel plantea una disyuntiva ineludible: o se emprende de inmediato un esclarecimiento de la sostenida ilegalidad en la que ha venido operando la industria petrolera (cuando menos un 70% de ella), o se concede la existencia de un poder público cínico, que solo se compromete a cumplir y hacer cumplir la Constitución y la ley en las ceremonias de toma de protesta. :x

Un gran saludo :-(
Omar

PD. espero poder resumir para el siguiente mes, las conclusiones contundentes e irrefutables, de los tecnicos, juristas y analistas politicos, que participaron en el debate en la camara de diputados y que por cierto, no fueron tomadas en cuenta en absoluto por las bancadas de los otros partidos que, acriticamente, se sumaron por consigna a este robo a mi país.
Title: Barrio Azteca (en ingles)
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 19, 2008, 05:38:49 PM
   
The Barrio Azteca Trial and the Prison Gang-Cartel Interface
November 19, 2008




By Fred Burton and Ben West

Related Links
Tracking Mexico’s Drug Cartels
On Nov. 3, a U.S. District Court in El Paso, Texas, began hearing a case concerning members of a criminal enterprise that calls itself Barrio Azteca (BA). The group members face charges including drug trafficking and distribution, extortion, money laundering and murder. The six defendants include the organization’s three bosses, Benjamin Alvarez, Manuel Cardoza and Carlos Perea; a sergeant in the group, Said Francisco Herrera; a lieutenant, Eugene Mona; and an associate, Arturo Enriquez.

The proceedings represent the first major trial involving BA, which operates in El Paso and West Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. The testimony is revealing much about how this El Paso-based prison gang operates, and how it interfaces with Mexican drug cartel allies that supply its drugs.

Mexico’s cartels are in the business of selling drugs like marijuana, cocaine and heroin in the United States. Large amounts of narcotics flow north while large amounts of cash and weapons flow south. Managing these transactions requires that the cartels have a physical presence in the United States, something a cartel alliance with a U.S. gang can provide.

Of course, BA is not the only prison gang operating in the United States with ties to Mexico. Prison gangs can also be called street gangs — they recruit both in prisons and on the street. Within the United States, there are at least nine well-established prison gangs with connections to Mexican drug cartels; Hermanos de Pistoleros Latinos, the Mexican Mafia and the Texas Syndicate are just a few such groups. Prison gangs like BA are very territorial and usually cover only a specific region, so one Mexican cartel might work with three to four prison or street gangs in the United States. Like BA, most of the U.S. gangs allied with Mexican cartels largely are composed of Mexican immigrants or Mexican-Americans. Nevertheless, white supremacist groups, mixed-race motorcycle gangs and African-American street gangs also have formed extensive alliances with Mexican cartels.

Certainly, not all U.S. gangs the Mexican cartels have allied with are the same. But examining how BA operates offers insights into how other gangs — like the Latin Kings, the Texas Syndicate, the Sureños, outlaw motorcycle gangs, and transnational street gangs like MS-13 — operate in alliance with the cartels.

Barrio Azteca Up Close
Spanish for “Aztec Neighborhood,” BA originated in a Texas state penitentiary in 1986, when five inmates from El Paso organized the group as a means of protection in the face of the often-brutal ethnic tensions within prisons. By the 1990s, BA had spread to other prisons and had established a strong presence on the streets of El Paso as its founding members served their terms and were released. Reports indicate that in the late 1990s, BA had begun working with Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman’s Sinaloa Federation drug trafficking organization, which at the time controlled drug shipments to Ciudad Juarez, El Paso’s sister city across the Rio Grande.

According to testimony from several different witnesses on both sides of the current trial, BA now works only with the Juarez cartel of Vicente Carrillo-Fuentes, which has long controlled much of Mexico’s Chihuahua state and Ciudad Juarez, and broke with the Sinaloa Federation earlier in 2008. BA took sides with the Juarez cartel, with which it is jointly running drugs across the border at the Juarez plaza.

BA provides the foot soldiers to carry out hits at the behest of Juarez cartel leaders. On Nov. 3, 10 alleged BA members in Ciudad Juarez were arrested in connection with 12 murders. The suspects were armed with four AK-47s, pistols and radio communication equipment — all hallmarks of a team of hit men ready to carry out a mission.

According to testimony from the ongoing federal case, which is being brought under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act, drugs are taken at discount from the supplier on the Mexico side and then distributed to dealers on the street. These distributors must then pay “taxes” to BA collectors to continue plying their trade. According to testimony from Josue Aguirre, a former BA member turned FBI informant, BA collects taxes from 47 different street-level narcotics operations in El Paso alone. Failure to pay these taxes results in death. One of the murder charges in the current RICO case involves the death of an El Paso dealer who failed to pay up when the collectors arrived to collect on a debt.

Once collected, the money goes in several different directions. First, BA lieutenants and captains, the midlevel members, receive $50 and $200 per month respectively for compensation. The bulk of BA’s profit is then transferred using money orders to accounts belonging to the head bosses (like Alvarez, Cardoza and Perea) in prison. Cash is also brought back to Ciudad Juarez to pay the Juarez cartel, which provided the drugs in the first place.

BA receives discounts on drugs from the Juarez cartel by providing tactical help to its associates south of the border. Leaders of Carrillo Fuentes’ organization in Juarez can go into hiding in El Paso under BA protection if their lives are in danger in Juarez. They can also order BA to track down cartel enemies hiding in El Paso. Former BA member Gustavo Gallardo testified in 2005 that he was sent to pick up a man in downtown El Paso who had cheated the Juarez cartel of money. Once Gallardo dropped him off at a safe house in El Paso, another team took the man — who was bound with rope and duct tape — to Ciudad Juarez, where Gallardo assumes he was killed.

BA and the World of Prison Gangs
Prison gangs are endemic to prison systems, where safety for inmates comes in numbers. Tensions (usually along racial lines) among dangerous individuals regularly erupt into deadly conflict. Prison gang membership affords a certain amount of protection against rival groups and offers fertile recruiting ground.

Once a prison gang grows its membership (along with its prestige) and establishes a clear hierarchy, its leader can wield an impressive amount of power. Some even wind up taking over prisons, like the antecedents of Russian organized crime did.

It might seem strange that members on the outside send money and answer to bosses in prison, since the bosses are locked up. But these bosses wield a great deal of influence over gang members in and out of prison. Disobedience is punishable by death, and regardless of whether a boss is in prison, he can order a hit on a member who has crossed him. Prison gang members also know that if they end up in prison again — a likely outcome — they will once again be dependent on the help of the boss to stay alive, and can perhaps even earn some money while doing time.

BA’s illegal activities mean its members constantly cycle in and out of prison. Many BA members were involved in smaller, local El Paso street gangs before they were imprisoned. Once in prison, they joined BA with the sponsorship of a “godfather” who walks the recruit through the process. BA then performs a kind of background check on new recruits by circulating their name throughout the organization. BA is particularly interested in any evidence that prospective members have cooperated with the police.

Prison authorities are certainly aware of the spread of BA, and they try to keep Mexican nationals separated from known BA members, who are mostly Mexican-American, to prevent the spread of the gang’s influence. BA has organizations in virtually every penitentiary in Texas, meaning that no matter where a BA member is imprisoned, he will have a protection network in place. BA members with truly extensive prison records might personally know the leader of every prison chapter, thus increasing the member’s prestige. Thus, the constant cycling of members from the outside world into prison does not inhibit BA, but makes its members more cohesive, as it allows the prison system to increase bonds among gang members.

Communication challenges certainly arise, as exchanges between prisoners and those on the outside are closely monitored. But BA seems to have overcome this challenge. Former BA member Edward Ruiz testified during the trial that from 2003 to 2007, he acted as a clearinghouse for jailed members’ letters and packages, which he then distributed to members on the outside. This tactic ensured that all prison communications would be traceable to just one address, thus not revealing the location of other members.

BA also allegedly used Sandy Valles New, who worked in the investigations section of the Office of the Federal Public Defender in El Paso from 1996 to 2002, to pass communications between gang members inside and outside prison. She exploited the access to — and the ability to engage in confidential communications with — inmates that attorneys enjoy, transmitting information back and forth between BA members inside and outside prison. Taped conversations reveal New talking to one of the bosses and lead defendants, Carlos Perea, about her fear of losing her job and thus not being able to continue transmitting information in this way. She also talked of crossing over to Ciudad Juarez to communicate with BA members in Mexico.

While BA had inside sources like New assisting it, the FBI was able to infiltrate BA in return. Josue Aguirre and Johnny Michelleti have informed on BA activities to the FBI since 2003 and 2005, respectively. Edward Ruiz, the mailman, also handed over stacks of letters to the FBI.

BA and the Mexican Cartels
As indicated, BA is only one of dozens of prison gangs operating along the U.S.-Mexican border that help Mexican drug trafficking organizations smuggle narcotics across the border and then distribute them for the cartels. Mexican drug trafficking organizations need groups that will do their bidding on the U.S. side of the border, as the border is the tightest choke point in the narcotics supply chain.

Getting large amounts of drugs across the border on a daily basis requires local connections to bribe border guards or border town policemen. Gangs on the U.S. side of the border also have contacts who sell drugs on the retail level, where markups bring in large profits. The current trial has revealed that the partnership goes beyond narcotics to include violence as well. In light of the high levels of violence raging in Mexico related to narcotics trafficking, there is a genuine worry that this violence (and corruption) could spread inside the United States.

One of the roles that BA and other border gangs fill for Mexican drug-trafficking organizations is that of enforcer. Prison gangs wield tight control over illegal activity in a specific territory. They keep tabs on people to make sure they are paying their taxes to the gang and not affiliating with rival gangs. To draw an analogy, they are like the local police who know the situation on the ground and can enforce specific rules handed down by a governmental body — or a Mexican cartel.

Details emerging from the ongoing trial indicate that BA works closely with the Juarez cartel and has contributed to drug-related violence inside the United States. While the killing of a street dealer by a gang for failure to pay up on time is common enough nationwide and hardly unique to Mexican drug traffickers, apprehending offenders in El Paso and driving them to Ciudad Juarez to be held or killed does represent a very clear link between violence in Mexico and the United States.

BA’s ability to strike within the United States has been proven. According to a Stratfor source, BA is connected to Los Zetas — the U.S.-trained Mexican military members who deserted to traffic drugs — through a mutual alliance with the Juarez cartel. The Zetas possess a high level of tactical skill that could be passed along to BA, thus increasing its effectiveness.

The Potential for Cross-Border Violence
The prospect for enhanced cross-border violence is frightening, but the violence itself is not new. So far, Mexican cartels and their U.S. allies have focused on those directly involved in the drug trade. Whether this restraint will continue is unclear. Either way, collateral damage is always a possibility.

Previous incidents, like one that targeted a drug dealer in arrears in Phoenix and others that involved kidnappings and attacks against U.S. Border Patrol agents, indicate that violence has already begun creeping over from Mexico. So far, violence related to drug trafficking has not caused the deaths of U.S. law enforcement officials and/or civilians, though it has come close to doing so.

Another potential incubator of cross-border violence exists in BA’s obligation to offer refuge to Juarez cartel members seeking safety in the United States. Such members most likely would have bounties on their heads. The more violent Mexico (and particularly Ciudad Juarez) becomes, the greater the risk Juarez cartel leaders face — and the more pressure they will feel to seek refuge in the United States. As more Juarez cartel leaders cross over and hide with BA help, the cartel’s enemies will become increasingly tempted to follow them and kill them in the United States. Other border gangs in California, Arizona and New Mexico probably are following this same trajectory.

Two primary reasons explain why Mexican cartel violence for the most part has stopped short of crossing the U.S. border. First, the prospect of provoking U.S. law enforcement does not appeal to Mexican drug-trafficking organizations operating along the border. They do not want to provoke a coordinated response from a highly capable federal U.S. police force like the Drug Enforcement Administration, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, or FBI. By keeping violence at relatively low levels and primarily aimed at other gang members and drug dealers, the Mexican drug-trafficking organizations can lessen their profile in the eyes of these U.S. agencies. Conversely, any increase in violence and/or the killing of U.S. police or civilians would dramatically increase federal scrutiny and retaliation.

The second reason violence has not crossed the border wholesale is that gangs like BA are in place to enforce the drug-trafficking organizations’ rules. The need to send cartel members into the United States to kill a disobedient drug dealer is reduced by having a tight alliance with a border gang that keeps drugs and money moving smoothly and carries out the occasional killing to maintain order.

But the continued integrity of BA and its ability to carry out the writ of larger drug-trafficking organizations in Mexico might not be so certain. The Nov. 3 trial will undermine BA activity in the crucial trafficking corridor of El Paso/Ciudad Juarez.

The indictment and possible incarceration of the six alleged BA members would not damage the gang so badly — after all, BA is accustomed to operating out of prison, and there must certainly be members on the outside ready to fill in for their incarcerated comrades. But making BA’s activities and modus operandi public should increase scrutiny on the gang and could very well lead to many more arrests.

In light of the presence of at least two FBI informants in the gang, BA leaders have probably moved into damage control mode, isolating members jeopardized by the informants. This will disrupt BA’s day-to-day operations, making it at least temporarily less effective. Stratfor sources say BA members on both sides of the border have been ordered to lie low until the trial is over and the damage can be fully assessed. This is a dangerous period for gangs like BA, as their influence over their territory and ability to operate is being reduced.

Weakening BA by extension weakens the Juarez cartel’s hand in El Paso. While BA no doubt will survive the investigations the trial probably will spawn, given the high stakes across the border in Mexico, the Juarez cartel might be forced to reduce its reliance on BA. This could prompt the Juarez cartel to rely on its own members in Ciudad Juarez to carry out hits in the United States and to provide its own security to leaders seeking refuge in the United States. It could also prompt it to turn to a new gang facing less police scrutiny. Under either scenario, BA’s territory would be encroached upon. And considering the importance of controlling territory to prison gangs — and the fact that BA probably still will be largely intact — this could lead to increased rivalries and violence.

The Juarez cartel-BA dynamic could well apply to alliances between U.S. gangs and Mexican drug-trafficking organizations, such as Hermanos de Pistoleros Latinos in Houston, the Texas Syndicate and Tango Blast operating in the Rio Grande Valley and their allies in the Gulf cartel; the Mexican Mafia in California and Texas and its allies in the Tijuana and Sinaloa cartels; and other gangs operating in the United States with ties to Mexican cartels like Mexikanemi, Norteños and the Sureños.

Ultimately, just because BA or any other street gang working with Mexican cartels is weakened does not mean that the need to enforce cartel rules and supply chains disappears. This could put Mexican drug-trafficking organizations on a collision course with U.S. law enforcement if they feel they must step in themselves to take up the slack. As their enforcers stateside face more legal pressure, the cartels’ response therefore bears watching.

Tell Stratfor What You Think

 
Title: Stratfor
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 09, 2008, 05:16:22 AM
Comentarios?  En espanol por supuesto  :-)

Part 1: A Critical Confluence of Events
December 9, 2008 | 1213 GMT
Summary
Mexico is facing the perfect storm as the global financial crisis begins to impact the country’s economy and as the government’s campaign against the drug cartels seems to be making the country even less secure. Mexico also faces legislative elections in the coming year, which will involve much jockeying for the 2012 presidential race. The political implications of the financial crisis will be reflected in a decline in employment and overall standard of living. In a country where political expression takes the form of paralyzing protest, the economic downturn could spell near-disaster for the administration of Mexican President Felipe Calderon.

Analysis
Editor’s Note: This is the first part of a series on Mexico.

Related Special Topic Pages
Countries In Crisis
Political Economy and the Financial Crisis
Tracking Mexico’s Drug Cartels
Related Links
Countries in Crisis: Mexico
Mexico appears to be a country coming undone. Powerful drug cartels use Mexico for the overland transshipment of illicit drugs — mainly cocaine, marijuana and methamphetamine — from producers in South America to consumers in the United States. Violence between competing cartels has grown over the past two years as they have fought over territory and as the Mexican army has tried to secure the embattled areas, mainly on the country’s periphery. It is a tough fight, made even tougher by endemic geographic, institutional and technical problems in Mexico that make a government victory hard to achieve. The military is stretched thin, the cartels are becoming even more aggressive and the people of Mexico are growing tired of the violence.

At the same time, the country is facing a global economic downturn that will slow Mexico’s growth and pose additional challenges to national stability. Although the country appears to be in a comfortable fiscal position for the short term, the outlook for the country’s energy industry is bleak, and a decline in employment could prompt social unrest. Complications also loom in the political sphere as Mexican parties campaign ahead of 2009 legislative elections and jockey for position in preparation for the 2012 presidential election.

Economic Turmoil
As the international financial crisis roils economies around the world, Mexico has been hit hard. Tightly bound to its northern neighbor, Mexico’s economy is set to shrink alongside that of the United States, and it will be an enormous challenge for the Mexican government to face in the midst of a devastating war with the drug cartels.

The key to understanding the Mexican economy is an appreciation of Mexico’s enormous integration with the United States. As a party to the North American Free Trade Agreement and one of the largest U.S. trading partners, Mexico is highly vulnerable to the vagaries of the U.S. economy. The United States is the largest single source of foreign direct investment in Mexico. Even more important, the United States is the destination of more than 80 percent of Mexico’s exports. A slowdown in economic activity and consumer demand in the United States thus translates directly into a slowdown in Mexico.

In addition to the sale of most Mexican goods in the U.S. markets, the United States is a major source of revenue for Mexico though remittances, and together these sources of income provide around a quarter of Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP). When Mexican immigrants send money home from the United States, it makes up a substantial portion of Mexico’s external revenue streams. Remittances to Mexico totaled US$23.9 billion in 2007, according to the Mexican Central Bank. The slowdown in the U.S. housing sector has brought remittances down during the course of 2008 from highs in the middle of 2007. As of the end of September 2008, remittances for the year were down by US$672.6 million from the same period in 2007.

The decline in remittances is being matched by a slowdown in Mexico’s economy across the board. The Mexican government estimates that Mexico’s GDP will slow from 3.2 percent growth in 2007 to 1.8 percent in 2008. Given that the U.S. economy is sliding into recession at the same time, this is likely only the beginning of the Mexican slowdown, and growth is expected to bottom out at 0.9 percent in 2009.

With growing pressure on the rest of the economy, the prospect of rising unemployment is perhaps the most daunting challenge. So far, unemployment and underemployment in Mexico has risen from 9.77 percent in December 2007 to 10.82 percent in October 2008, (some 27 percent of the workforce is employed in the informal sector). But slowed growth and declining demand in the United States is sure to cause further declines in employment in Mexico. As happened in the wake of Mexico’s 1982 debt crisis, Mexicans may seek to return to a certain degree of subsistence farming in order to make it through the tough times, but that is nowhere near an ideal solution. The government has proposed a US$3.4 billion infrastructure buildup plan to be implemented in 2009 that will seek to boost jobs (and demand for industrial goods) throughout Mexico, although it is not clear how quickly this can take effect or how many jobs it might create.

Further compounding the employment issue is the possibility of Mexican immigrants returning from the United States as jobs disappear to the north. Stratfor sources have already reported a slightly higher-than-normal level of immigrants returning to Mexico, and although it is too early to plot the trajectory of this trend, there is little doubt that job opportunities are evaporating in the United States. As migrants return to Mexico, however, there are very few jobs waiting for them there, either. This presents the very real possibility that the available jobs will be in the black markets, and specifically with the drug cartels. Demand for drugs persists despite economic downturns, and the business of the cartels continues unabated. Indeed, for the cartels, the economic downturn could be an excellent recruitment opportunity.

The turmoil in U.S. financial markets has directly damaged the value of the Mexican peso and has caused a loss of wealth among Mexican companies. Mexican businesses have lost billions of dollars (exact figures are not available at this time) to bad currency bets. Mexican companies in search of extra financing have had trouble floating corporate paper, which has forced the government to offer billions of dollars worth of guarantees. The upside to this is that a weaker currency will increase the attractiveness of Mexican exports to the United States vis-à-vis China (for a change), which will boost the export sector to a certain degree.

The fluctuating peso has also forced the Mexican central bank to inject about US$14.8 billion into currency markets to stabilize the peso. Nevertheless, the peso has devalued by approximately 22.6 percent since the beginning of 2008. Partially as a result of the currency devaluation, inflation appears to be rising slightly. The government has reported a 12-month inflation rate of 6.2 percent, through mid-November. This is actually fairly low for a developing nation, but it is the highest inflation has been in Mexico since 2001.

Mexico’s financial sector is highly exposed to the international credit market, with about 80 percent of Mexico’s banks owned by foreign companies, and the banking sector has been unstable in recent months. Foreign capital has, to a certain degree, fled Mexican investments and banks as capital worldwide veered away from developing to developed markets, in response to the global financial crisis. The result is a decline in investments across the board, and there was a sharp decline in the purchase of Mexican government bonds. After a four-week fall in bond purchases, the Mexican government announced a US$1.1 billion bond repurchase package Dec. 2 in an attempt to increase liquidity in the capital markets and lower interest rates. Although investors were not responsive, it is an indication that the government is taking its countercyclical duties seriously.

As the government seeks to counter falling employment and other economic challenges, it will need to lean heavily on its available resources. The central bank holds US$83.4 billion in foreign reserves, as of Nov. 28, and can continue to use the money to implement monetary stabilization. Mexico also maintains oil stabilization funds that total more than US$7.4 billion, which provides a small fiscal cushion. The 2009 Mexican federal budget calls for the first budget deficit in years — amounting to 1.8 percent of GDP — and has increased spending by 13 percent from the previous year’s budget, to US$231 billion.

Some 40 percent of this budget is reliant on oil revenues generated by Mexican state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). Despite the fall in oil prices, Mexico has managed to secure its energy income through a series of hedged oil sales contracts. These contracts will sustain the budget through the duration of 2009 with prices set from US$70 to US$100 per barrel. Mexico is a major exporter of oil — ranked the sixth largest producer and the 10th largest exporter. The energy industry is critical for the economy, just as it is for the government.

In the long term, however, Mexico’s energy industry is crippled. Due to a history of restrictive energy regulations, oil production is falling precipitously (primarily at Mexico’s gigantic offshore Cantarell oil field), with government reports indicating that production averaged 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) between January and September, which is far from Mexico’s target production of 3 million bpd. Thus, even if Mexico has secured the price of its oil through 2009, it cannot guarantee its production levels in the short term, and perhaps not in the long term.

To try to boost the industry’s prospects, the Mexican government has passed an energy reform plan that will allow Pemex to issue contract agreements to foreign companies for joint exploration and production projects. The government has also decided to assume some of Pemex’s debt in order to ease the company’s access to international credit in light of the tight international credit market.

These changes could help Mexico pull its oil production rate out of the doldrums. However, most of Mexico’s untapped reserves are located either in deep complex formations or offshore — environments in which Pemex is at best a technical laggard — making extraction projects expensive and technically difficult. With the international investment climate constrained by capital shortages, foreigners barred from sharing ownership of the oil they produce and the price of oil falling, it is not yet clear how interested foreign oil companies will be in such partnerships.

The decline in the energy sector has the potential to produce a sustained fiscal crisis in the two- to three-year timeframe, even assuming that other aspects of the economic environment (nearly all of which are beyond Mexico’s control) rectify themselves. The slack in government revenue will have to be taken up through increased taxes on other industries or on individuals, but it is not yet clear how such a replacement source of revenue might be created.

The overall political implications of the financial crisis will be reflected in a decline in employment and the standard of living of average Mexicans. In a country where political expression takes the form of paralyzing protest, the economic downturn could spell near-disaster for the administration of Mexican President Felipe Calderon.

The Shifting Political Landscape
In power since 2000, the ruling National Action Party (PAN) has enjoyed a fairly significant level of support for Calderon both within the legislature — where it lacks a ruling majority — and in the population at large, particularly given the razor-thin margin with which Calderon won his office in 2006. The Calderon administration has launched a number of reform efforts targeting labor, energy and, of course, security.

Although the PAN has maintained an alliance with the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) for much of Calderon’s administration, this is a unity that that is unlikely to persist, given that both parties have begun to lay out their campaigns for the 2012 presidential election.

For the ruling party, there are a number of looming challenges on the political scene. Mexico has seen a massive spike in crime and drug-related violence coincide with the first eight years of rule by Calderon’s PAN after 71 straight years of rule by the PRI. To make things worse, the global financial crisis has begun to impact Mexico — through no fault of its own — and the impact on employment could be devastating. Given the confluence of events, it is almost guaranteed that Calderon and the PAN will suffer political losses going forward, weakening the party’s ability to move forward with decisive action.

So far, Calderon has been receiving credit for his all-out attack on the drug cartels, and his approval ratings are near 60 percent. As the economy weakens and the death toll mounts, however, this positive outlook could easily falter.

The challenge will not likely come from the PAN’s 2006 rival, the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD). The PRD gained tremendous media attention when party leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador lost the presidential election to Calderon and proceeded to stage massive demonstrations protesting his loss. Since then, the PRD has adopted a less-radical stance, and the far-left elements of the party have begun to part ways with the less radical elements. This split within the PRD could weaken the party as it moves forward.

The weakening of the PRD is auspicious for Mexico’s third party, the PRI, which has been playing a very careful game. The PRI has engaged in partnerships with the PAN in opposition (for the most part) to the leftist PRD. In doing so, the PRI has taken a strong role in the formation of legislation. However, the PRI’s prospects for the 2012 presidential election have begun to improve, with the party’s popularity on the rise. As of late October, the PRI was polling extremely well — at the expense of both the PAN and the PRD — with a 32.4 percent approval rating, compared to the PAN’s 24.5 percent and the PRD’s 10.8 percent.

In the short term, the June 2009 legislative elections will be a litmus test for the political gyrations of Mexico, a warm-up for the 2012 elections and the next stage of political challenges for Calderon. As the PRI positions itself in opposition to the PAN — and particularly if the party gains more seats in the Mexican legislature — it will become increasingly difficult for the government to reach compromise solutions to looming challenges. Calderon is somewhat protected by his high approval ratings, which will make overt moves against him politically questionable for the PRI or the PRD.

Although a great deal could change (and quickly), these dynamics highlight the potential changes in political orientation for Mexico over the next three years. In the short term, the political situation remains relatively secure for Calderon, which is critical for a president who is balancing the need for substantial economic resuscitation with an ongoing war on domestic organized crime.

Mexico’s most critical challenge is the convergence of events it now faces. The downturn in the economy, the political dynamics or the deteriorating security situation, each on its own, might not pose an insurmountable problem for Mexico. What could prove insurmountable is the confluence of all three, which appears to be in the making.
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 09, 2008, 07:51:03 PM
He aqui la traduccion del Stratfor del post anterior.  !Por favor alguien haz la separacion de parafos!

La parte 1: Una Confluencia Crítica de Acontecimientos el 9 de diciembre de 2008 | 1213 Resumen de GMT México está frente a la tormenta perfecta como la crisis financiera global comienza a impresionar la economía del país y como la campaña del gobierno contra los cárteles de droga parece estar haciendo el país asegura todavía menos. México también encara elecciones legislativas en el año venidero, que implicará mucho manejar para la 2012 carrera presidencial. Las implicaciones políticas de la crisis financiera serán reflejadas en un descenso en el empleo y nivel de vida general. En un país donde expresión política toma la forma de protesta paralizadora, la baja económica podría deletrear cercano-desastre para la administración de Presidente mexicano Felipe Calderon. La Nota de la redacción del análisis: Esto es la primera parte de una serie en México. El Tema Especial relacionado Llama Países En la Crisis Economía Política y la Crisis financiera que Rastrean Cárteles de la Droga de México Relacionados Ligan Países en la Crisis: México México parece ser un país que la venida deshizo. Los cárteles poderosos de la droga utilizan México para el transbordo terrestre de drogas ilícitas — principalmente cocaína, la marihuana y la metanfetamina — De productores en Sudamérica a consumidores en Estados Unidos. La violencia entre competir cárteles han crecido durante los últimos dos años como ellos han luchado sobre el territorio y como el ejército mexicano ha tratado de asegurar las áreas luchadas, principalmente en la periferia del país. Es un combate duro, hecho aún más duro por problemas endémicos, geográficos, institucionales y técnicos en México que hace una victoria del gobierno dura para lograr. El ejército es estirado delgado, los cárteles llegan a ser aún más agresivos y las personas de México se cansan de la violencia. Al mismo tiempo, el país está frente a una baja económica global que ralentizará el crecimiento de México y colocará desafíos adicionales a la estabilidad nacional. Aunque el país parezca estar en una posición fiscal cómoda para el término corto, la vista para la industria de la energía del país es desolado, y un descenso en el empleo podría incitar inquietud social. Las complicaciones también asoman en la esfera política como partidos mexicanos hacen campaña adelante de 2009 elecciones legislativas y manejan para la posición en la preparación para la 2012 elección presidencial. La Confusión económica Como la crisis financiera internacional irrita economías alrededor del mundo, México ha sido golpeado duramente. Salte apretadamente a su el norte de vecino, la economía de México es puesta a encogerse al costado que de Estados Unidos, y ser un enorme desafío para el gobierno mexicano de encarar en el medio de una guerra devastadora con los cárteles de droga. La llave a la comprensión de la economía mexicana es una apreciación de enorme integración de México con Estados Unidos. Cuando un partido al Acuerdo de libre cambio norteamericano y a uno del EEUU más grande que comercia a socios, México es sumamente vulnerable a los caprichos de economía de EEUU. Estados Unidos es la sola fuente más grande de inversión directa extranjera en México. Aún más importante, Estados Unidos es el destino de más que el 80 por ciento de las exportaciones de México. Un retraso en la actividad y la demanda de consumo económicas en Estados Unidos así traduce directamente en un retraso en México. Además de la venta de la mayoría de los bienes mexicanos en mercados de EEUU, Estados Unidos es una fuente mayor de renta para México aunque remesas, y juntos estas fuentes de ingresos proporcionan alrededor de un cuarto del producto interno bruto de México (PIB). Cuándo inmigrantes de mexicano envían dinero en casa de Estados Unidos, hace una porción substancial de corrientes externas de renta de México. Las remesas a México totalizaron los mil millones US$23.9 en 2007, según el Banco Central mexicano. El retraso en el sector de envoltura de EEUU ha bajado remesas durante 2008 de alto en medio de 2007. Al el fin de septiembre 2008, las remesas para el año fueron hacia abajo por US$672.6 millón del mismo período en 2007. El descenso en remesas es emparejado por un retraso en la economía de México general. El gobierno mexicano estima que PIB de México ralentizará del crecimiento del 3,2 por ciento en 2007 1,8 por ciento en 2008. Dado que economía de EEUU desliza en la recesión al mismo tiempo, esto es probable sólo el principio del retraso mexicano, y el crecimiento son esperados profundizar fuera en 0,9 por ciento en 2009. Con presión creciente en el resto de la economía, la perspectiva del desempleo creciente es quizás el desafío más intimidando. Hasta ahora, el desempleo y el subempleo en México han subido del 9,77 por ciento en diciembre 2007 al 10,82 por ciento en octubre 2008, (el unos 27 por ciento de la fuerza de trabajo es empleado en el sector informal). Pero ralentizó el crecimiento y demanda declinante en Estados Unidos están seguro causar descensos adicionales en el empleo en México. Cuando sucedió tras 1982 crisis de deuda de México, mexicanos pueden procurar volver hasta cierto punto de agricultura de subsistencia para hacerlo por los tiempos duros, pero eso está muy lejos de una solución ideal. El gobierno ha propuesto un plan de aumento de infraestructura de mil millones US$3.4 para ser aplicado en 2009 que procurará aumentar trabajos (y la demanda para bienes de producción) a través de México, aunque no sea claro cuán rápidamente esto puede surtir efecto ni cuántos trabajos que lo quizás cree. Aún más componer el asunto de empleo es la posibilidad de inmigrantes mexicanos que vuelven de Estados Unidos como trabajos desaparecen al norte. Las fuentes de Stratfor ya han informado un ligeramente más alto que nivel normal de inmigrantes que vuelven a México, y aunque sea demasiado temprano tramar la trayectoria de esta tendencia, hay duda pequeña que oportunidades de trabajo evaporan en Estados Unidos. Cuando emigrantes vuelven a México, sin embargo, hay muy pocos trabajos que los esperan allí, cualquiera. Esto presenta la posibilidad muy verdadera que los trabajos disponibles estarán en los mercados negros, y específicamente con los cárteles de droga. La demanda para drogas persiste a pesar de bajas económicas, y el negocio de los cárteles continúa constante. Verdaderamente, para los cárteles, la baja económica podría ser una excelente oportunidad de contratación. La confusión en mercados financieros de EEUU ha dañado directamente el valor del peso mexicano y ha causado una pérdida de riqueza entre compañías mexicanas. Los negocios mexicanos han perdido miles de millones de dólares (exige figuras no están disponible en este momento) a apuestas malas de moneda. Las compañías mexicanas en busca del financiamiento de exceso han tenido problema papel corporativo flotante, que ha forzado el gobierno para ofrecer miles de millones de valor de dólares de garantías. La parte superior a esto es que una moneda más débil aumentará la atracción de exportaciones mexicanas a Estados Unidos en relación con China (para un cambio), que aumentará el sector de la exportación hasta cierto punto. El peso que fluctúa también ha forzado el banco central mexicano a inyectar acerca de mil millones US$14.8 en mercados monetarios para estabilizar el peso. No obstante, el peso ha desvalorizado por aproximadamente 22,6 por ciento desde que el principio de 2008. Parcialmente a consecuencia de la devaluación de moneda, la inflación parece estar subiendo ligeramente. El gobierno ha informado una tasa de inflación de 12 meses del 6,2 por ciento, por a mediados de noviembre. Esto es realmente bastante bajo para un país en vías de desarrollo, pero es la inflación más alta ha estado en México desde que 2001. El sector financiero de México es expuesto sumamente al mercado internacional del crédito, con acerca del 80 por ciento de los bancos de México poseídos por compañías extranjeras, y el sector bancario ha sido inestable en los últimos meses. La capital extranjera tiene, hasta cierto punto, inversiones mexicanas huida y deposita como principal en todo el mundo virado lejos de desarrollar a mercados desarrollados, en respuesta a la crisis financiera global. El resultado es un descenso en inversiones generales, y había un descenso agudo en la compra de bonos del estado mexicanos. Después de que una caída de cuatro-semana en compras de bono, el gobierno mexicano anunciara que un mil millones US$1.1 vinculan vuelven a comprar paquete diciembre. 2 en una tentativa para aumentar liquidez en los mercados principales y bajar los tipos de interés. Aunque inversionistas no fueran sensibles, es una indicación que el gobierno toma sus deberes contracíclicos gravemente. Cuando el gobierno procura contradecir empleo que se cae y otros desafíos económicos, necesitarán para inclinarse mucho en sus recursos disponibles. El banco central tiene los mil millones US$83.4 en reservas extranjeras, al noviembre. 28, y puede continuar utilizar el dinero para aplicar estabilización monetaria. México también mantiene fondos de estabilización de petróleo que total más que los mil millones US$7.4, que proporciona un pequeño cojín fiscal. Las 2009 llamadas económicas, federales y mexicanas para el primer déficit presupuestario en años — sumando el 1,8 por ciento de PIB — Y ha aumentado el gasto por el 13 por ciento del presupuesto del año anterior, a EEUU$231 mil millones. El unos 40 por ciento de este presupuesto depende de rentas de petróleo engendradas por compañía petrolera mexicana de estado-poseyó Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). A pesar de la caída en precios del crudo, México ha logrado asegurar sus ingresos de energía por una serie de contratos cubiertos de ventas de petróleo. Estos contratos sostendrán el presupuesto por la duración de 2009 con precios puso de EEUU$70 a EEUU$100 por barril. México es un exportador mayor de petróleo — Situado el sexto productor más grande y el exportador más grande décimo. La industria de la energía es crítica para la economía, así como es para el gobierno. A largo plazo, sin embargo, la industria de la energía de México es paralizada. Debido a una historia de regulaciones restrictivas de energía, la producción de petróleo se cae precipitadamente (principalmente en campo petrolífero offshore gigantesco de Cantarell de México), con informes de gobierno que indican esa producción promedió 2,8 millones de barriles por día (bpd) entre enero y septiembre, que es distantes de la producción del objetivo de México de 3 millones de bpd. Así, incluso si México haya asegurado el precio de su petróleo por 2009, no puede garantizar sus niveles de la producción a corto plazo, y quizás no a largo plazo. Para tratar de aumentar las perspectivas de la industria, el gobierno mexicano ha pasado un plan de reforma de energía que permitirá Pemex para publicar contrato acuerdos a compañías extranjeras para proyectos conjuntos de exploración y producción. El gobierno también ha decidido asumir que algunos de la deuda de Pemex para aliviar el acceso de la compañía crédito internacional a la luz del mercado internacional apretado de crédito. Estos cambios podrían ayudar México saca su tasa de la producción de petróleo del estancamiento. Sin embargo, la mayor parte de reservas sin explotar de México son situadas o en formaciones complejas profundas u offshore — los ambientes en los que Pemex es a lo más un vago técnico — La extracción que hace proyecta caro y técnicamente difícil. Con el clima internacional de inversión forzado por escaseces principales, los extranjeros impidieron de compartir propiedad del petróleo que ellos producen y el precio de caer de petróleo, es todavía no vacía compañías petroleras extranjeras cuán interesadas estarán en tales asociaciones. El descenso en el sector de energía tiene el potencial para producir una crisis fiscal sostenida en el dos- a agenda de tres-año, asumiendo aún que otros aspectos del ambiente económico (casi todos los cuales están más allá del control de México) rectifica a sí mismo. El flojo en la renta del gobierno tendrá que ser tomado por impuestos aumentado en otras industrias o en individuos, pero es todavía no vacía cómo tal fuente de reemplazo de renta quizás sea creada. Las implicaciones políticas generales de la crisis financiera serán reflejadas en un descenso en el empleo y el nivel de vida de mexicanos medios. En un país donde expresión política toma la forma de protesta paralizadora, la baja económica podría deletrear cercano-desastre para la administración de Presidente mexicano Felipe Calderon. El Panorama político que Cambia En el poder desde que 2000, la resolución el Partido Nacional de Acción (CACEROLA) ha disfrutado de un nivel bastante significativo de apoyo para Calderon ambos dentro de la legislatura — dónde falta una mayoría gobernante — Y en la población en grande, especialmente dado el margen delgadísimo con que Calderon ganó su oficina en 2006. La administración de Calderon ha lanzado varios esfuerzos de reforma que concentran en trabajo, la energía y, por supuesto, la seguridad. Aunque la CACEROLA haya mantenido una alianza con el Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) para mucha de la administración de Calderon, esto es una unidad que que es improbable persistir, dado que ambos partidos han comenzado a ordenar sus campañas para la 2012 elección presidencial. Para el partido gobernante, hay varios desafíos inminentes en el panorama político. México ha visto un punta masivo en la violencia de crimen y droga-relacionó coincide con los primeros ocho años de regla por la CACEROLA de Calderon después de 71 años rectos de regla por el PRI. Para hacer cosas peores, la crisis financiera global ha comenzado a impresionar México — por ningún defecto de su propio — Y el impacto en el empleo podría estar devastando. Dada la confluencia de acontecimientos, casi es garantizada que Calderon y la CACEROLA sufrirán pérdidas políticas que avanzan, debilitando la capacidad del partido para adelantarse con acción decisiva. Hasta ahora, Calderon ha estado recibiendo crédito para su ataque supremo en los cárteles de droga, y sus calificaciones de aprobación son el 60 por ciento cercano. Cuando la economía debilita y los montes de número de víctimas, sin embargo, esta vista positiva podría vacilar fácilmente. El desafío hace no probable viene de la CACEROLA 2006 rival, el Partido demócrata Revolucionario (PRD). El PRD ganó atención tremenda de medios cuando líder de partido Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador perdió la elección presidencial a Calderon y continuó para preparar demostraciones masivas que protestan su pérdida. Desde entonces, el PRD ha adoptado una postura menos-radical, y los elementos de la extrema izquierda del partido han empezado a maneras de parte con los elementos menos radicales. Esta separación dentro del PRD podría debilitar el partido como se adelanta. La debilitación del PRD es propicia para los terceros de México, el PRI, que ha estado jugando un juego muy cuidadoso. El PRI ha entrado en asociaciones con la CACEROLA en la oposición (en la mayor parte) al PRD izquierdista. A hacer así, el PRI ha tomado un papel fuerte en la formación de legislación. Sin embargo, las perspectivas del PRI para la 2012 elección presidencial han comenzado a mejorar, con la popularidad del partido en la subida. Al tarde octubre, el PRI sondeaba muy bien — a costa de la CACEROLA y el PRD — Con una calificación de aprobación de 32,4 por ciento, comparado al 24,5 por ciento de la CACEROLA y el 10,8 por ciento del PRD. A corto plazo, el junio 2009 elecciones legislativas serán una prueba de tornasol para las rotaciones políticas de México, un calentamiento para las 2012 elecciones y la próxima etapa de desafíos políticos para Calderon. Cuando el PRI se posiciona en la oposición a la CACEROLA — y especialmente si el partido gana más asientos en la legislatura mexicana — Llegará a ser cada vez más difícil para el gobierno alcance soluciones de compromiso a desafíos inminentes. Calderon es protegido algo por sus calificaciones altas de aprobación, que hará movimientos abiertos contra él políticamente dudoso para el PRI o el PRD. Aunque mucho pueda cambiar (y rápidamente), estas dinámica destaca los cambios potenciales en la orientación política para México en los próximos tres años. A corto plazo, la situación política se queda asegura relativamente para Calderon, que es crítico para un presidente que equilibra la necesidad para la resucitación económica substancial con una guerra progresiva en el crimen organizado doméstico. México la mayoría de los desafíos críticos son la convergencia de acontecimientos ahora encara. La baja en la economía, la dinámica política o la situación de la seguridad que empeoran, cada por sí mismo, no quizás coloque un problema insuperable para México. Qué podría demostrar insuperable es la confluencia de todo tres, que parece ser en construcción.
Title: Stratfor: Una Guerra de atricion es estrategia limitada
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 12, 2008, 12:08:48 PM
Part 2: A War of Attrition is a Limited Strategy
El 10 de diciembre de 2008 | 1211 GMT

 Resumen

 Durante los últimos dos años, el gobierno mexicano ha participado en una campaña concertada contra los cárteles de droga, que había operado con la impunidad cercano por décadas en áreas contiguas de México. Mientras ha habido algunos éxitos, factores geográficos, institucionales y técnicos han hecho el gobierno hace campaña una lucha ascendente. Con corrupción desenfrenada que plaga los grados de la aplicación de la ley de México, el Presidente Felipe Calderon utiliza el ejército para imponer la regla de la ley en la periferia del país, donde los cárteles todavía colocan el peligro más grande. Pero la situación recuerda el esfuerzo temprano de EEUU en Iraq, donde una pequeña fuerza extranjera entrenada para la guerra convencional puede no rápidamente transición a un papel del counterinsurgency y donde no había estrategia completa para la reedificación.

Análisis
 La Nota de la redacción: Esto es la segunda parte de una serie en México.

El desafío primario de México en su combate contra los cárteles de droga es su geography. El país el norte de la región contigua es hecho de desierto, separando las redes de transporte y centros de población occidentales y orientales costeras. Gran distancias y terreno inhóspito — mucho de ello árido o montañoso — Haga control de gobierno del país desafiando muy.
El gobierno no controla las cuestas de la Sierra Madre Oriental ni el Occidental de Sierra Madre, que corre al norte-sur arriba cada costa y es las rutas primarias de droga-trafico de drogas. Ni lo hace controla el el norte de desierto que bordea Estados Unidos, que, como el oeste americano fabuloso en Estados Unidos, es en esencia una frontera donde leyes escritas en México D.F. son difíciles de imponer.



El el norte de la región contigua es definido fundamentalmente por su proximidad a Estados Unidos, que es la fuente primaria de renta de comercio, el turismo, las remesas, los trabajos (para los que afrontan la frontera que cruza) e inversión directa extranjera. Por supuesto, Estados Unidos es también el mercado más grande de mundo para drogas ilícitas. México del sudeste es igualmente frontera-como, con selvas densas en la orilla oriental de la frontera de México-Guatemala y en las montañas de las tierras altas de Chiapas. Aunque México D.F. más cerca, el el sur de la región es muy pobre, de diversidad étnica y todavía acoge el Zapatista Ejército Nacional de Liberación, un resto de la Revolución mexicana a principios del siglo XX.

No casualmente, la revolución, que empezó en 1910, implicó un desafío cercano-idéntico para el gobierno central en función de control territorial, con rebeldes de Ejército de la Liberación de Emiliano Zapata del Sur en el sur de México y el ejército de la Casa de campo de Pancho en el norte. Las similitudes geográficas entre las fortalezas de la revolucionario era y ésos de cárteles actuales de droga subrayan cuán históricamente difícil es para el gobierno para controlar su territorio. La ausencia de conexiones como interconectar geográficas naturales los ríos, que proporcionarían fácil y la línea ferroviaria urbana para fuerzas federales de seguridad, significa que el gobierno central mexicano debe vencer montañas, los desiertos y las selvas para afirmar su autoridad en los interiores.
Hoy, los cárteles toman ventaja llena de la falta del gobierno de control en el el norte de y del sur de partes del país. Los traficantes de drogas mueven cocaína en el sur de México después de atravesar América Central, en el norte de manera de los países andinos cacao-crecientes de Sudamérica. Al norte, y por los pasillos de transporte de las dos costas, cárteles mexicanos de droga disfrutaron de limitó el gobierno interferencia durante las décadas del Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) regla y estableció de los reinos factos donde su palabra fue la ley y las drogas movieron eficientemente hacia el norte — En Estados Unidos.




En 2006, sin embargo, la marea giró para los traficantes de drogas cuando Presidente mexicano nuevamente elegido Felipe Calderon cabalgó para enchufar en promesas de campaña de aplastar los cárteles. La tarea no sería fácil para Calderon. La corrupción penetra cada nivel de instituciones de la aplicación de la ley de México — cuyos miembros son continuamente bajo la amenaza de la muerte por los cárteles — Y local (e incluso federal) policía puede non mantener la regla de la ley. Esto ha dejado mucha de la región contigua de México totalmente sin ley.

Con aplicación de la ley local y federal cedió — y encarado con un enemigo bien-entrenado rico mucho armado y pernicioso — Calderon concluyó que la única manera de derrotar a mexicano organized crime Fue de desplegar el ejército. Pero a pesar de la potencia de fuego superior del ejército y combate las capacidades (comparó a fuerzas domésticas de seguridad), es ni suficiente grande para cubrir el territorio necesario ni es diseñó para la aplicación de la ley doméstica. Largo, alargó operaciones militares también enfatizan un presupuesto ya molestado del gobierno. Y el ambiente en el que el militar debe operar es un hostil uno. Cuando sigue los cárteles, el ejército mexicano es más como un poder que ocupa que persigue a rebeldes locales que una agencia del gobierno central que impone la regla de la ley. Además, su reputación relativamente sin mancha en un país plagado con corrupción no es garantizada aguantar. El más largo permanece comprometido con los cárteles las más grande sus oportunidades de ser corrompido. La realidad, por supuesto, es que México tiene pocas otras opciones.

Problemas institucionales

Durante los 71 años de regla por el PRI y la presidencia subsiguiente de seis-año de Zorro de Vicente del Nacional Partido de Acción, el gobierno mexicano hizo limitó movimientos contra los cárteles. Para la regla de la mayor parte de PRI, los cárteles estuvieron muy lejos de tan fuerte como ellos ha llegado a ser en la década pasada, así que políticos podrían proporcionar para permitirles ser, en la mayor parte. La presión carente durante esta vez, los cárteles crecieron cada vez más poderoso, estableciendo las redes complejas del negocio a través de sus regiones y en los mercados internacionales de droga. Cuando el negocio comenzó a recoger, así que hizo la influencia de los cárteles. El flujo de caja creciente dio los cárteles operando más alto presupuestos, que hicieron más fácil de comprar cooperación de administración local y también levantó las estacas en la industria de droga-trafico de drogas.

Cuando los cárteles llegaron a ser más poderosos el nivel de violencia también comenzó a subir, y por el gobierno de 2006 Calderon decidido para hacer su movimiento. Por esta vez, sin embargo, los cárteles de droga tan fueron atrincherados que ellos habían llegado a ser la ley vigente en sus respectivos territorios. Las autoridades locales y federales de la aplicación de la ley habían llegado a ser corrompen, y la entrada de tropas militares tuvo el efecto de desestabilizar estas relaciones — cuando los planificadores pensaron — Y estropear el negocio de los cárteles. Con la disolución de sus redes, los cárteles empezaron defender, proveer sus lazos establecidos en el gobierno y defendiendo agresivamente su césped.

El problema de corrupción se reduce al lure of money Y la amenaza de la muerte. Conocido por el plomo de plata O de frase (que traduce literalmente a “la plata o dirige,” con el significado implicado, “toma un soborno o toma una bala”), el selecto dado a la aplicación de la ley y funcionarios del estado los pone bajo la amenaza de la muerte si ellos no permiten (o, como es a menudo el caso, facilita) operaciones de cártel. Con el gobierno históricamente incapaz de proteger todo su personal de estas clases de amenazas — y ciertamente incapaz de emparejar los largos bolsillos de los cárteles — Los funcionarios de la aplicación de la ley de México han llegado a ser casi universalmente informales. Las amenazas de la muerte han aumentado como el gobierno ha intensificado sus operaciones anti cártel, teniendo como resultado movimiento y dificultades altos que alistan nuevo personal — Personal especialmente calificado. (La ciudad de Juarez ha estado sin un jefe de policía desde que pleno verano, después de que jefes anteriores fueran matados o fueron huidos a Estados Unidos. Los destinos semejantes han acontecido agencias locales de aplicación de la ley en casi cada estado mexicano).

En función de dinero a mano, mexicano organizó crimen puede golpear cualquier oferta que el gobierno puede hacer. Los cárteles mexicanos introducen en algún lugar entre $40 mil millones y $100 mil millones por año. El octubre. 27 anuncio eso 35 employees of the anti-organized crime unit (SIEDO) in the Office of the Mexican Attorney General (PGR) Había sido detenido y había sido cargado con corrupción ilustra el hecho que ni los alcances superiores del gobierno están a salvo de infiltración por los cárteles. En este ejemplo, funcionarios primeros fueron pagados hasta $450.000 por mes para pasar información adelante a un cártel implicado en el trafico de drogas de cocaína. Esta clase de dinero es una tentación inmensa en un país donde salarios anuales para funcionarios huyen $10.000 para policías locales a $48.000 para senadores y $220.000 para el presidente. El crimen organizado puede concentrar en individuos clave en el gobierno mexicano y convencerlos a proporcionar información con una combinación de ofertas lucrativas y amenazas físicas si ellos no obedecen.

Cuándo viene a terminar en amenazas de la muerte, los cárteles tienen probado sí mismos ser bastante eficientes. Los asesinatos de Edgar Millan Gomez, Igor Labastida Calderon Y otros funcionarios federales de policía en México D.F. antes este año es ejemplos que hace al caso. Golpear a funcionarios de alto nivel en la capital del país les envían un mensaje bravo a funcionarios del estado. En un nivel local y más pernicioso, los cárteles han montado una ofensiva concertada contra estado y policía municipal. En el año pasado ellos han asesinado un suma de 500 policías, y en algunos pueblos, el jefe de policía y el cuerpo de policía entero ha sido detenido en cargas de corrupción.

Las amenazas de la muerte son un problema grave para autoridades mexicanas porque México simplemente no tiene la capacidad de proteger todo su personal de aplicación de la ley y a funcionarios del estado. Los detalles protectores efectivos requieren niveles altos de habilidad, y deficiencias de la mano de obra de México lo hacen difícil de encontrar que personas para llenar estas posiciones — Especialmente desde que los candidatos serían en gran parte el personal mexicanos de aplicación de la ley que son a sí mismo los objetivos.

Y sin la protección completa, hay muy poco estímulo para el personal de aplicación de la ley de tener fuera contra influencia de cártel. Después de todo, una vez que los cárteles han establecido a sí mismo como la ley vigente, son mucho más fácil para la policía local permitir perros que durmientes están que son de escoger combates con el perro más grande en el bloque — Con ninguna esperanza de respaldo suficiente del gobierno central.

La pérdida coherente del personal por charges of corruption Y la muerte es una debilidad inherente para México. Hace la conservación del conocimiento institucional difícil, erosionándose aún más la eficacia de esfuerzos de la seguridad del gobierno. Adicionalmente, la pérdida de jefes locales de policía, los alcaldes e indica y funcionarios federales de policía a la muerte, la prosecución o la resignación interrumpen continuidad de la autoridad y hacen la estabilidad en el operacional plano imposible. Además, el proceso es que se autoperpetúa. Los que reemplazan muerto o corrompen a funcionarios a menudo son experimentados menos y menos vetted y son más probable de ser perdido a la corrupción o el asesinato.

El movimiento y la corrupción altos también duelen la reunión de la inteligencia y reducen el conocimiento situacional. Mantener fuentes en el campo son una táctica importante en cualquier guerra, pero esas fuentes requieren el manejo coherente por el personal de aplicación de la ley que ellos se fían de — Y cambios rápidos en el personal destruyen esa confianza. Verdaderamente, la corrupción y el movimiento conducen más a menudo las capacidades de la inteligencia hacia atrás, saltando filtraciones y encauzando información del gobierno a los cárteles en vez de al revés.

Aún la constitución es una fuente de la inseguridad institucional, limitando el tiempo en la oficina del presidente y legisladores a un término. Irónicamente, mientras estas provisiones fueron puestas en el lugar para prevenir la trinchera de líderes en posiciones del poder (verdaderamente, esto fue uno de los asuntos que conducen de la Revolución mexicana), ellos contribuyen realmente a la corrupción, desde que líderes no encaran el desafío de buscar reelección y averiguación duradera de votante. Aunque refuerza el aparato del partido poniendo el énfasis en el plan del partido antes que las ambiciones del individuo, el estado de México- y políticos federal-planos son casos perdidos sobre la oficina entrante. Esto los liberta para asentarse favores políticos y asuntos personales sin necesitar para explicárselo a votantes en el día de las elecciones.

Integración federal de Aplicación de la ley

Los desafíos de la guerra de cártel han incitado la administración de Calderon a reorganizar y combinar las dos agencias federales de aplicación de la ley de país, la Policía Impeditiva Federal (PFP) y la Agencia Federal de Investigaciones (AFI), en lo que será simplemente conocido como la Policía Federal. Las dos agencias independientes han tenido tradicionalmente responsabilidades diferentes e informados a dos secretarios diferentes en el Gabinete del presidente.

El PFP ha sido la fuerza más física, en esencia una agencia doméstica grande de policía cargó con proporcionar el gran público seguridad como mantener ordena en protestas y parar disturbios. El AFI, por otro lado, fue modelado después de EEUU Oficina Federal de Investigación — Una agencia que enfoca más a investigar actividad criminal que lo combatiendo en las calles. En muchos despliegues de counternarcotics durante el por delante de dos años, tanto PFP como AFI han sido desplegados, con PFP manejando generalmente puntos de revisión de carretera y búsquedas de vehículo mientras AFI investiga escenas de crimen y sigue plomos. Desde que son agencias federales de aplicación de la ley, sus áreas de la superposición de responsabilidades, pero cada han mantenido su propia estructura separada de la cultura y la orden.

Con la guerra de droga que intensifica sobre los últimos dos años, se hizo patente que amenaza primaria de seguridad de México fue organizada crimen y la violencia que acompañaron lo. Los cárteles de México son muy brutales (y tan requieren la mano pesada del PFP), pero ellos también son organizados muy bien y de complicidad (requiriendo la pericia investigativa del AFI). En el pasado, las dos agencias a menudo trabajarían el mismo caso sin coordinar sus actividades, que tuvieron como resultado una falta de información-compartir e investigaciones prolongadas. La administración de Calderon concluyó que luchando los cárteles requieren un cuerpo de policía federal capaz de proporcionar la seguridad física y realizar el trabajo investigativo continuamente.

Así que el gobierno aplicó un plan para integrar el PFP y AFI — Un plan eso, mientras considerado completo en el papel, es distante de completo en la práctica. Tales transiciones burocráticas toman inevitablemente mucho tiempo y el esfuerzo y tienen como resultado ineficacias a corto plazo (que puede ser un problema con una guerra de cártel que rabía). Para fechar, rivalidades burocráticas parecen haber prevenido unidad verdadera en todo. A pesar del acuerdo de papel, el PFP y AFI se quedan separación en la práctica, haciendo sus propios arrestos y seguir sus propios casos con interacción limitada uno con el otro. En septiembre 2008, AFI agents protested El hecho que ellos fueron hechos para informar a comandantes de PFP en la Seguridad Pública Secretariado. PFP quitó finalmente a los agentes de AFI del caso, demostrando claramente las rivalidades entre organismos.

Además, no es claro cómo la decisión impresionará corrupción en las agencias. Por una parte, habiendo centralizado control sobre una sola institución carena el proceso de corrupción-vigilancia. Por otro lado, con sólo una institución federal de seguridad, no hay segundo partido de proporcionar un cheque independiente de exterior en la corrupción. Además, si hay sólo una agencia y es corrompe o sufrimiento de ataques, entonces toda policía federal de México es debilitada. Adicionalmente, manteniendo que dos agencias también tiene en cuenta cada en ser aislado de la corrupción y debilidades del otro.

Es claro que una unión formal de dos agencias independientes de policía no puede ser institucionalizada de noche. Pero la presión es gran acelerar el proceso. Calderon ha puesto una fecha tope tentativa de integración completa por 2012 (que es también el año de la elección luego presidencial). La idea es para la Policía Federal de últimamente tomar la delantera en la campaña contra los cárteles en vez del ejército.

Más allá de los problemas de reorganización burocrática, agencias federales de aplicación de la ley de México encaran varios desafíos logísticos y técnicos. Las deficiencias técnicas serán dirigidas hasta cierto punto por EEUU Merida Initiative, Que otorgará aproximadamente $900 millones a México en los próximos dos años para el equipo y la instrucción. Esto dará México la oportunidad de recoger las tecnologías como equipo de espectrometría de ion (la tecnología de narcótico-presintiendo) eso tiene probado ser útil en tomas de marihuana. Hay también mucho cuarto de mejorar colección de información, el almacenamiento y el análisis. No hay base de datos centralizada con antecedentes penales para local, el estado ni agencias federales de policía. Las agencias de la aplicación de la ley también faltan las capacidades suficientes de seguro-comunicaciones y droga-descubrimiento, que significa que custodia actividades pueden ser vigiladas por los cárteles y embarques domésticos de droga son más difíciles de discernir.

Pero incluso si México pueda crear la estructura más efectiva y eficiente burocrática y obtener las tecnologías muy últimas para sus fuerzas de la seguridad, no hay manera verdadera de compensar la corrupción que paraliza que penetra aplicación de la ley federal. Y con la ferocidad creciente de los cárteles de droga, no hay fin a la vista a la presión que ellos pueden y colocarán en el personal de la aplicación de la ley de México. Las causas fundamentales de corrupción institucional en México — coerción y soborno — Son entrelazados profundamente en la cultura política de país y tomarán décadas, quizás generaciones, para arrancar. Esto significa que el gobierno no alcanzará su objetivo de transición la guerra de droga en las manos de tiempo de aplicación de la ley pronto, que tendrá en cambio consecuencias para el ejército como luchan contra los cárteles. Fundamentalmente, la seguridad fuerza reforma de necesidad (y rápidamente) antes el ejército sucumbe a las mismas presiones que han paralizado a la policía federal.
Title: Segunda Parte
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 12, 2008, 12:10:53 PM
El Ejército mexicano

Antes Calderon envió al ejército después de los narcos en 2006, contrabando de droga estuvo desenfrenado en México, pero los cárteles controlaron sus respectivos territorios, donde corrupción reinó y la paz prevaleció (más o menos). Había escaramuzas ocasionales de cártel en cártel pero ellos tendieron a ser efímeros. La falta histórica de presión de gobierno creó finalmente más riqueza y el poder para los cárteles para luchar sobre y la violencia comenzó a subir. Cuándo Calderon mandó a tropas federales, ellos revolvieron efectivamente el nido del avispón. Los asesinatos de droga-relacionó a través de skyrocketed de México como cárteles compitieron para el territorio flojamente tenido de sus rivales que vacilan.

Calderon no es el primer presidente mexicano de utilizar el ejército para combatir los cárteles, pero él ha cambiado dramáticamente la manera que el ejército contribuye a la misión del counternarcotics del gobierno. Los antecesores de Calderon confiaron principalmente en el Grupo Especial de Fuerzas Airmobile (GAFE), que fue entrenado especialmente y fue equipado para realizar desafiando extraordinariamente operaciones con poco tiempo de antelación. Estas misiones incluyeron el 2003 arresto de Osiel Cardenas Guillen, líder anterior del cártel de Golfo, y de la 2002 captura de Benjamin Arellano Felix, la cabeza del cártel de Tijuana.

Pero las operaciones que implican GAFE o el alto mando GAFE (las la mayoría de los élite de fuerzas especiales de México) fueron solo-objetivo, misiones aisladas. Desde que 2006, Calderon ha desplegado a tropas — inclusive ambas unidades especiales de fuerzas y batallones regulares de infantería — Por primera vez en misiones a largo plazo diseñadas para imponer la estabilidad y desenredar el sistema entero de cártel. La misión ha llegado a ser, en un sentido, tanto counterinsurgency como counternarcotics, con fuerzas federales que operan distante distante con el conocimiento limitado del paisaje o personas locales. En algunas maneras, esto es muy semejante a las fuerzas de desafíos EEUU encara en Iraq y Afganistán.

La política nacional doméstica de la seguridad de México bajo Calderon ha sido formulada en el nivel de Gabinete, con el Secretariado Interior (SEGOB) tomando la delantera. A pesar de la muerte de Interior Secretario Juan Camilo Mourino en un noviembre. 4 choque del avión en México D.F. (pensó ser causado por error piloto), política de seguridad hace probable continúa proceder de the secretariat. SEGOB trabaja con el Secretariado de Defensa, la Seguridad Pública Secretariado y el PGR a coordinar el despliegue de fuerzas federales (ambos militar y la aplicación de la ley).

Casi todos despliegues a gran escala son operaciones conjuntos con policía y tropas federales que patrullan junto, que combina la fuerza bruta de fuerza militar con las capacidades investigativas de la policía federal. La cooperación no es perfecta, y hay muchos ejemplos de coordinación pobre. Muchas de las correrías y arrestos mayores han sido llevados a cabo por GAFE con exclusión de aplicación de la ley federal. GAFE entonces transfiere a detenidos en la custodia de la oficina del fiscal general para la prosecución. A menudo, aplicación de la ley federal es recortada de operaciones sensibles — Presumiblemente porque el ejército tiene la inteligencia que podría ser cedida si expuso de corromper policía federal.

Primer despliegue militar de Calderon contra los cárteles implicó a 6.500 tropas expedidas a Michoacan (estado de la casa de Calderon) en diciembre 2006. Michoacan fue el centro de una oleada de violencia que había dejado a 500 muertos en incidentes relacionados con la droga ese año (muchas de las muertes fueron aturdirmente horribles, inclusive decapita y los desmembramientos). El mes siguiente, Calderon desplegó a 3.300 tropas al estado de Baja California y 1.000 tropas al estado de Guerrero. Desde entonces, las tropas han sido mandadas a calmar violencia en 14 otros estados, con tener total de despliegues estabiliza para el por delante de seis meses en aproximadamente 35.000. Aunque los números de despliegue son un secreto de cerca tenido, nosotros también estimamos que aproximadamente 10.000 policía federal también ha sido enviada a éstos molesta lugares.

La infantería mexicana del ejército y fuerzas especiales luchan la guerra del suelo del mayoría del ejército contra los cárteles. Las fuerzas especiales participan en correrías de precisión en ubicaciones estratégicas mientras la infantería realiza patrullas (a menudo con policías federales), establece puntos de revisión de camino y entra en la búsqueda y destruye misiones en la marihuana y operaciones de cultivo de amapola de opio. A llegar en un área de operaciones, las tropas empiezan por vetting la policía local. Esto requiere, como mínimo, un desarme temporario de policías, y a veces la corrupción local es tan profunda que los oficiales permanentemente son aliviados de sus armas. La marina mexicana ha sido utilizada asimismo para operaciones offshore como el 2006 cerrar del litoral de Michoacan en conjunción con operaciones simultáneas de suelo. Cuándo unidades necesarias y militares coordinan con policía federal autorizada a realizar investigaciones que el ejército no es permitido ni es preparado para realizar.

La estrategia de Calderon para los primeros 12 meses de operaciones del contrario-cártel del ejército implicó, casi exclusivamente, concentrando en el Gulf cartel En fortalezas en y alrededor de Tamaulipas y Michoacan indica. El objetivo durante este período parece haber sido de desmantelar Golfo centrándose antes en otros cárteles. En el proceso, sin embargo, el cártel de Sinaloa comenzó a hacer movimientos para llenar los vacíos dejaron por Golfo. Aunque violencia girara fuera de control en territorio de Sinaloa, casi ningunas tropas fueron enviadas allí durante el primer año (el territorio de Sinaloa tiene comercio o industria importantes pequeños y fue una prioridad más baja, mientras Golfo opera cerca del pasillo de envío de Monterrey-Nuevo Laredo, por que más que el 60 por ciento de exportaciones mexicanas al paso de Estados Unidos). Durante estos primero 12 a 15 meses, la estrategia de contrario-cártel fue dictada por el territorio controlado por el cártel de Golfo.

Ahora parece que la estrategia es de perseguir múltiples cárteles y para manejar la violencia en centros de población. Después de que 12 a 15 meses de operaciones contra Golfo, el cártel fuera apreciablemente más débil y la violencia comenzaba a estallar en otras áreas, inclusive centros grandes de población como Juarez y Tijuana. En ese punto, el gobierno empezó despliegues extendido más anchamente, expidiendo rápidamente a tropas necesitaron como “apagar fuegos.” Uno de los factores primarios en el cambio en la estrategia fue opinión pública. Los residentes y los alcaldes de ciudades grandes quieren que Tijuana y Juarez llegaba a ser cada vez más harta de la violencia creciente. Ansioso de demostrar a los gobiernos del pueblo y el estado que lo todavía tuvo un asidero en la situación, el gobierno federal comenzó a reaccionar más directamente a éstos concierne, enviando a tropas no contra un cártel particular pero al último lugar de peligro violento. Hasta ahora, mientras el gobierno federal ha conseguido mantener las calificaciones positivas de aprobación, han estirado el ejército muy delgado en el proceso.

En esencia, el ejército movió de utilizar una almádena en un solo objetivo a utilizar una serie de pequeños martillos en muchos objetivos. Los resultados han sido menos que satisfactorio. Más temprano en la campaña, despliegues de ejército tendrían como resultado inicialmente una disminución inmediata y notabla en la violencia. Esto es ya no el caso. Desde marzo, cuando el ejército movió en estabilizar Juarez — donde violencia giraba rápidamente fuera de control — El ejército ha tenido a menos tropas disponibles y ha tenido que depender de la policía local para la ayuda. La violencia continuó aún después de las tropas llegadas.

La operación de Juarez fue un momento decisivo en la estrategia del gobierno federal, y no es un ejemplo bueno de cómo opinión pública condujo el gobierno hacia una respuesta prominente que hace, al fin, mejora apreciablemente la situación de la seguridad. La operación representó el primer despliegue a gran escala en el que un número insuficiente de soldados y policía federal fue forzado a compensar la escasez de mano de obra reclutando la ayuda de aplicación de la ley local. Naturalmente, la situación fue complicada por el hecho ése razón las tropas fueron en primer lugar había de investigar a la policía local para lazos al crimen organizado. Como resultado, muchas policía protestó o fue a la huelga, y a este día situación de la seguridad de la ciudad se queda tenue. Juarez fue el primer signo claro que el gobierno no desplegaba suficientes fuerzas para encontrar la misión expandida del ejército.

Uno de los problemas más grandes que el ejército ha tenido que confrontar es tamaño completo de México. El ejército del país 200,000-strong (todas ramas, con el ejército en acerca de 144.000) — consistir en su mayor parte de reclutas —Simplemente no es suficiente grande para dominar 761.606 millas cuadradas de México del territorio ni seguir un estimó a 500.000 personas implicadas en el comercio ilícito de droga. Unas 35.000 tropas federales son desplegadas en cada ocasión. En el el norte de área contigua, donde 16.000 tropas son desplegadas, los traficantes de drogas tienen una cantidad tremenda de tierra abierta en su disposición, donde ellos han establecido una red vasta de rutas y pisos francos (el el norte de área contigua atraviesa casi 250.000 millas cuadradas y está acerca del tamaño de Tejas). Los esfuerzos de la aplicación de la ley en este ambiente son muy difíciles, desde que los cárteles tienen la capacidad de cambiar rápidamente tránsito rutas y cambiar sus pautas de conducta para evitar descubrimiento (aunque ellos pasarán generalmente por pueblos en los que ellos son capaces de establecer control). Las 16.000 tropas en el el norte de la frontera encaran una situación semejante que Marina de EEUU confrontaron en la provincia de Anbar de Iraq, donde un juego que frustra de “golpea un lunar” llegó a ser la táctica predominante de la coalición. Aún con cooperación de EEUU, hay tropas mexicanas simplemente demasiadas pocas por EEUU-la frontera de México para combatir completamente actividades de cártel México interior.




Un segundo desafío que el ejército mexicano debe tratar con es aún más básico: No fue diseñado para esta clase de misión. Como la mayoría de los ejércitos parados, el ejército de México no es entrenado ni es equipado para imponer las leyes domésticas de país. Falta no sólo la autoridad civil pero también la pericia necesaria para realizar investigaciones e imponer orden. Aunque el ejército despliegue con aplicación de la ley federal, que tiene alguna pericia civil, el grado a que el ejército debe operar sin la ayuda de policía local (es decir, los que saben el territorio) es un estorbo que paraliza.

El ejército así es forzado a adaptar rápidamente a una clase de guerra que puede ser llamada fácilmente asimétrico. Los agresores criminales organizados en México, quieren a rebeldes en Iraq y Afganistán, son difícil de distinguirse de civiles inocentes y puede montar ataques entonces mezclan rápidamente en la población. Y con ninguna manera de depender de pericia local, la inteligencia exacta y oportuna es limitada muy. Visto como una fuerza que ocupa, tropas federales tienen un tiempo difícil que gana la confianza de habitantes y redes locales efectivas reveladoras de humano-inteligencia, que es clave a un counterinsurgency exitoso.

A pesar de estos desafíos, las estrategias y las políticas aplicadas han llevado hasta ahora a éxitos inauditos contra traficantes de drogas. El ejército es responsable de la mayor parte de estos éxitos. Sobre los últimos dos años, la marina mexicana ha reducido el trafico de drogas marítimo de drogas ilícitas por el 65 por ciento. La vigilancia aumentada del ejército de espacio aéreo (junto con nuevos radares y restricciones de donde vuelos son permitidos aterrizar) ha llevado a una reducción del 90 por ciento en el trafico de drogas de antena de cocaína de Colombia. En esencia, el ejército tiene probado así ser lejos la única institución en México que tiene la capacidad de intervenir apreciablemente con crimen organizado en el país.

A pesar de estos éxitos significativos sobre los últimos dos años, el ejército, con su número limitado de tropas, no ha podido prevenir el número de víctimas relacionado con la droga de subir (el peaje se paró en 1.543 en 2005 y superará 5.000 en 2008). Verdaderamente, si cualquier cosa, la situación de la seguridad ha empeorado a través de México, en parte porque el gobierno tan es centrado en los cárteles a costa de criminales ordinarios. Como resultado, crímenes violentos como asesina, armó robo y el asalto está en la subida por todas partes el país.

El Golpetazo Duro Largo

No hay solución sencilla al problema de cárteles de la droga de México. Aún desmantelar el aparato de cártel sería un remedio a corto plazo a un permanente problema. Siempre que hay una demanda para drogas en Estados Unidos, habrá individuos emprendedores que tratarán de negociarlos por el EEUU el sur de vecino.

La artimaña, entonces, es de construir sólido que suficientes instituciones en México para reemplazar — o contrarresta por lo menos — La influencia de los traficantes de drogas. El militar puede desmantelar corrompe las policías, pero el sistema para establecer un efectivo judicial u otra autoridad cívica en su lugar no parecen ser suficiente completo para lograr ninguna última reforma. El militar puede purgar corrompe individuos de los grados de aplicación de la ley local, pero del problema básico de plomo de plata O persiste. Y allí parece ser una capacidad disminuyente de aplicar un programa económico del desarrollo que proporcionaría oportunidades alternativas de empleo para miembros de cártel y haría el comercio de droga menos atractivo. En esencia, no hay estrategia completa de reedificación, y sin un surgir de equilibrio de ser-sosteniendo de operaciones militares, una victoria clara y decisiva es difícil de lograr aún en el mejor de circunstancias.

Mientras ciudadanos mexicanos todavía por y por apoyo grande la misión del gobierno, battle fatigue is beginning to set in, Y su tolerancia para la violencia podría ondear. Calderon todavía mantiene las calificaciones de aprobación de alrededor del 60 por ciento, pero sobre la mitad de mexicanos sondeó cree durante el verano que el gobierno pierde la guerra en cárteles. Si apoyo público se marcha de Calderon, la guerra del gobierno en el crimen organizado ganará a otro enemigo más.
Tell Stratfor What You Think
Title: Los Asesinos de Habilidad Creciente
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 12, 2008, 08:51:57 PM
En México, los Asesinos de Habilidad Creciente
Los Hits bien-coordinados del Cártel Muestran Sofisticación más grande
 
Un equipo forense examina la escena del asesinato de Huerta. Los asesinos despidieron 85 series en SUV de Huerta, lo golpeando 40 veces. No cerca vehículos fueron golpeados por balas perdidas.

Por Puesto de William
El Poste de Washington Servicio Extranjero
El viernes, el 12 de diciembre de 2008; Llame A16
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/11/AR2008121103540.html

CIUDAD JUAREZ, México -- El hit fue rápido, bravo, mortal. Jesús Huerta Yedra, un acusador federal primero aquí, fue gunned hacia abajo la semana pasada en un cruce ocupado 100 yardas de la frontera de EEUU en un asesinato de la coreografía precisa.

En la guerra caótica de droga de México, los ataques son ya no el trabajo de aficionados desesperados con objetivo malo. Cada vez más, las matanzas son llevadas a cabo por profesionales, a menudo encapuchado y enguantado, que atrapa sus objetivos en emboscadas coordinada, la huelga con potencia de fuego arrolladuro, y entonces se desaparece en la hora punta de tarde -- así como ellos hicieron en la matanza de Huerta.

Los asesinos pagados, conocido como sicarios, son prendidos raramente. Los funcionarios mexicanos dicen que las escuadras del comando probablemente viajan del estado para indicar, a través de un país donde el gobierno y sus fuerzas de seguridad dibujan alarmando conclusiones acerca del alcance y la habilidad de un enemigo apoyado por miles de millones de dólares en ganancias de droga.

"Ellos consiguen muy bueno en sus trabajos," dijo Hector Hawley Morelos, el coordinador del estado forense y el laboratorio de crimen aquí, donde criminólogos y pesquisidores han sido agobiados por más de 1.600 homicidios en Juarez este año. "Los asesinos muestran un nivel alto de sofisticación. Ellos han tenido la instrucción -- en algún lugar. Ellos parecen tener el conocimiento de policía procedimientos investigativos. Por ejemplo ellos no dejan huellas dactilares. Eso perturba muy".

Alejandro Pariente, el portavoz para el fiscal general en el estado de chihuahua, dijo, "Ellos son llamados crimen organizado para una razón muy buena. Porque ellos son organizados muy".

En Ciudad Juarez, una ciudad industrial dura a través del río del Paso de El, donde 42 personas han sido matadas en el la semana pasada, el depósito de cadáveres sirve como un aula cruel para el estudio de violencia de droga por la frontera.

En una entrevista la semana pasada, un pesquisidor ocupado en el laboratorio forense habló al realizar una autopsia. Una docena de muertos aguardaron exámenes finales, extendieron en mesas metálicas, su pebbled de cuerpos con hoyos gordos de bala, abre ojos que miran fijamente en bombillas fluorescentes. Los hombres todo fue clasificado finalmente como "organizó crimen" homicidios, que justifican la mayoría de muertes en Ciudad Juarez, la ciudad más violenta en México.


El lunes, Fiscal general federal Eduardo Medina Mora dijo que ha habido 5.376 matanzas relacionadas con la droga este año en México, el doble dura el número de año. Luego esa noche, Victor Hugo Moneda, que dirigió agencia investigativa de policía de México D.F., fue matado en una emboscada como él salía su coche en su casa en la capital. Los agresores, utilizando un coche y la motocicleta, despidieron 22 disparos, según custodiar.

En el depósito de cadáveres de Juarez, los tres congeladores con acceso directo son llenados a la capacidad de más de 90 cadáveres, amontonó piso al techo, a salir bolsas blancas con cremalleras. Después de que unos pocos meses, los que no sean identificados son enterrados en un campo en el cementerio de la ciudad en la orilla del desierto.

"Las pautas que nosotros a menudo vemos con homicidios organizados de crimen son armas de alto nivel, heridas de múltiplo, trauma extremo," dijo el Alma Rosa Padilla, un médico encargado de las análisis principal, que completa tantas como cinco autopsias llenas cada día. "Ellos no van al hospital".

Un EEUU policía anti droga, que habló en la condición del anonimato porque él trabaja en México, dijo, "El ejército mexicano ha tenido un problema con desertores. Así que tiene a la policía, inclusive unidades anti crimen especiales. Ellos ahora trabajan para el otro lado".

Más que una docena funcionarios mexicanos primeros de aplicación de la ley han sido retenidos recientemente para trabajar supuestamente para los cárteles de droga, inclusive Noé Ramírez Mandujano, el acusador anti droga, primero y anterior de la nación. El fue detenido el mes pasado en la sospecha de aceptar $450.000 a cambio de compartir la inteligencia con negociantes.
===============

En México, los Asesinos de Habilidad Creciente
 


Según información soltó el jueves por el Congreso mexicano, más de 18.000 soldados han desertado al ejército mexicano este año. En los últimos tres años, 177 miembros de unidades de especial-fuerzas han abandonado sus postes, y muchos fueron a trabajar para el crimen organizado.

Recientemente, chihuahua Gov. José Reyes Baeza dijo que pistoleros empleados que han sido detenidos confesaron que ellos llevaron a cabo ejecuciones para 1.000 pesos por la matanza, acerca de $75.

Las armas vierten sobre la frontera aquí de Tejas, comprado ilegalmente de pandillas de calle o legalmente en tiendas deportivas de bienes en Estados Unidos. Dure mes, el ejército mexicano hizo la toma más grande de armas ilegales de fusiles y militar-tipo en más de dos décadas, destapando una reserva de 540 rifles, 165 granadas y 500.000 cartuchos en una casa en Reynosa, justo a través de la frontera de McAllen, Tex.

Según funcionarios mexicanos, los rifles robados de la Beatitud de Fuerte, un poste de Ejército de EEUU en el Paso de El, acaba por en las calles de Juarez. En el laboratorio forense, el equipo de la balística sacó una docena de armas, inclusive AK-47s, AR-15s, M 16s y otros armamentos de militar-grado.

"Pienso que el gobierno es agobiado simplemente. Los casos entran cincos y decenas ahora, y son probablemente muy duro mantenerse al ritmo de," dijo Tony Payan, un experto en el comercio de droga y profesor en la Universidad de Tejas en el Paso de El. "El gobierno está en el defensivo. Los maleantes tienen la ventaja aquí. Ellos probablemente perfeccionan sus técnicas más rápido que el gobierno puede encontrar que los expertos o los recursos para combatirlos".

El asesinato de Huerta fue una huelga brava. El fue el acusador federal segundo-más alto en el estado. Recientemente, el abogado de 40 años de edad fue entregado el caso de mató a periodista Armando Rodríguez, un periodista de policía de veterano en periódico de El Diario que fue matado por un pistolero delante de su casa dura mes en Ciudad Juarez. Las razones detrás de la matanza de Huerta se quedan desconocido.

Cuándo investigador forense David García y su socio llegaron en su camioneta blanca 15 minutos después del disparar en la tarde de diciembre. 3, la policía municipal marcaba el perímetro de la escena de crimen con cinta amarilla y los primeros soldados llegaban a montar guardia.


La Sunny, cruce ancho de la Calle de Arizona y el Bulevar que Papa John Paul II linda con el Grande de Rio y es un camino de cinco-minuto de un principal puente en el Paso de El. Fácilmente visible a través del río fue una línea de piquete de vehículos de Patrulla de fronteras de EEUU.

Huerta cabalgaba en el asiento de pasajero de un nuevo Viaje de Regate de plata-coloró SUV con platos de Tejas, que había parado en una luz roja. El coche fue pasado a un secretario en la oficina del acusador, Marisela Esparza Granados. Cuándo García llegó, el astilló limpiaparabrisas en el vehículo todavía luchaban por operar.

El cruce alrededor del Regate fue ensuciado con esqueletos gastados. García y su socio, que llevan tablillas con sujetapapeles pero ningunas armas, fotografiaron metódicamente la escena y reunieron 85 cubiertas, todo en el calibre coherente con la cuenta algunos testigos policía dicha -- que dos hombres encapuchados de dos camionetas recogieron frente del Regate y fuego abierto con AK-47s.

Los criminólogos en el laboratorio forense fueron golpeados por varios detalles. Primero, ellos sospecharon que Huerta fue seguido por por lo menos uno, y quizás varios, persiguen vehículos, que habrían ayudado a los pistoleros se ponen en posición de tender una emboscada Huerta. Ellos supieron que el coche Huerta utilizaría y su ruta, los investigadores dijeron.

Segundo, los criminólogos fueron impresionados con la precisión, la velocidad y la audacia del ataque.

Cuándo se paró en el semáforo, el vehículo de Huerta fue rodeado por otros coches en un cruce llenado. Pero ningunos otros vehículos fueron golpeados por balas perdidas. Más tarde, Hawley, el coordinador de laboratorio, indicó la pauta apretada de pocking de disparo de fusil la parabrisas del SUV.

"Usted ve ellos golpean donde ellos apuntan. El fue el objetivo. No ella," Hawley dijo. Los asesinos concentraron su fuego directamente en Huerta, que no llevaba una chaleca antibalas. "Si ellos saben que ellos llevan una chaleca antibalas, ellos ignoran el pecho y disparan la cabeza," él agregó.

La autopsia reveló que Huerta había sido golpeado por lo menos 40 veces, la mayoría del en el pecho. El asiento del pasajero del SUV fue empapado con sangre. El secretario, Esparza, fue golpeado sólo tres veces, aunque una herida de cuello fue fatal.

En el laboratorio de crimen, las cubiertas de esqueleto fueron examinadas por el equipo de la balística y registrados. Las balas son casi siempre de Estados Unidos. Los asesinos no se fían de balas hechas en México, Hawley dijo, agregar, "Las balas norteamericanas son mejores".
Title: Extradiciones
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 01, 2009, 03:02:00 AM
México ha extraditado a 10 miembros pretendidos de cártel de droga a Estados Unidos a fines de un año ya sin precedentes para extradiciones entre Estados Unidos y México, The Associated Press diciembre informado. 31. La oficina del Fiscal general mexicana dice que los sospechosos son miembros de alto rango de las tres la mayoría de los cárteles poderosos en México: el Golfo, Sinaloa y los grupos de Arellano-Felix. Con estas 10 extradiciones, el número total de extradiciones entre México y Estados Unidos es 95, arriba de 12 en 2007.
===============
Cuarenta y uno individuos han sido detenidos como parte de Considerar “de Proyecto Sincroniza 2,” una operación de aplicación de la ley de multiagency dirigida por Aplicación de Droga de EEUU Agencia que concentró en Cártel del Golfo de México, el Departamento de EEUU de la Justicia anunció diciembre. 31. Los agentes que toman parte en la operación descubrieron un grupo de traficantes de drogas que corren una operación grande que apuesta en Tennessee inclusive una empresa de peleas de gallos que un funcionario federal dijo fue el más grande que él había visto en Estados Unidos. Once individuos fueron detenidos en Tennessee; 30 otros fueron cargados en Tejas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Nevada, Kentucky y Carolina del norte. Esos detenido en Tennessee encaran una variedad de cargas relacionadas para endrogar trafico de drogas y apostar federal infracciones.

==========================


El 22 de diciembre de 2008 | 2053 GMT

Página Especial relacionada de Tema
•   Tracking Mexico’s Drug Cartels
Endroge violencia en Guerrero
La actividad criminal organizada continuó a través de México esto semana pasada. En el estado de Tamaulipas, tentativas de amenazas y extorsión contra la industria que apuesta han dirigido por lo menos 12 tales negocios a cerrar sus puertas. Por lo menos dos muertes en el área son consideradas relacionadas a negocios que fallaron de pagar la protección honorarios a grupos criminales. En Tijuana, estado de Baja California, un grupo de pistoleros abrió fuego sobre la oficina del fiscal general de estado en qué autoridades cree fue una tentativa fallada de rescatar a miembros de una pandilla de secuestro que había sido detenida.

Y en Chilpancingo, estado de Guerrero, las autoridades descubrieron que las cabezas cortadas de ocho soldados y un estado anterior custodia a director en mucho luego a una tienda al por menor grande. Junto a las cabezas fue una nota que leyó, “Para cada un mío que usted mata, mataré a diez soldados.” Los cuerpos fueron encontrados en dos ubicaciones por cerca carreteras.

Las autoridades creen que los soldados fueron matados en la venganza para un tiroteo de ejército con una pandilla de droga en el pueblo de Teloloapan, que dejó por lo menos tres traficantes de drogas muertos. Los funcionarios creen que los soldados decapitados en este caso habían sido raptados al azar como ellos salían cerca ejército abuchea. El director anterior de la policía fue secuestrado supuestamente fuera de un toro que lucha arena.

Mientras violencia horrible de droga en México ha pasado a ser lo normal durante los años últimos, esta última masa que decapita incidente es ciertamente digna de mención y destaca la vulnerabilidad de fuerzas de la seguridad del país a este tipo de ataque. Desde que aplicando aún un basic protective intelligence program Parece improbable en el futuro próximo, la amenaza inevitable a fuerzas de seguridad tiene el potencial para bajar aún más su moral. Una combinación de la moral más baja y un sentido de gran vulnerabilidad podría disminuir la eficacia del ejército; mucho que quiere la violencia contra policías ha llevado a resignaciones de policía de masa, las protestas y las huelgas. Tal situación entre el ejército podría paralizar la capacidad del gobierno para seguir su estrategia de cártel, especialmente dada la tasa históricamente alta de deserción para las fuerzas armadas.

El fiscal general Dirige la Guerra de Droga

En una rueda de prensa publicó esto semana pasada, Fiscal general mexicano Eduardo Medina Mora proporcionó una cuenta oficial de la guerra del cártel del año pasada. Entre las declaraciones Medina hizo fue que según registros mantenido por su oficina, el número total de homicidios organizados de crimen-relacionó hasta ahora en 2008 soportes en bien encima de 5.700, más que doble el registro anterior de acerca de 2.700 fijo en 2007. El 2008 total incluye a 944 personas matadas en noviembre solo, el mes más mortal en la historia del México en función de violencia de droga. Además, él afirmó que casi 15 por ciento de las víctimas de crimen organizado pertenecido a la aplicación de la ley o el ejército, más alto que el 10 por ciento que estimamos anteriormente. El también proyectó que violencia de la droga del país tiene todavía no de pico, y que la tendencia en 2008 es esperada continuar durante los primeros pocos meses de 2009.

Medina también indicó que cárteles de la droga del país ahora han entrado una nueva fase de violencia. Mientras que anteriormente matanzas y secuestros fueron motivados principalmente por disputas sobre el territorio, violencia de cártel ahora es motivada más por vendettas y quejas personales entre traficantes de drogas, una situación que ocurrió como las operaciones del gobierno interrumpieron el equílibrio político entre los cárteles.

Muchas de las observaciones de Medina resuenan las evaluaciones hechas por Stratfor in our 2008 report on Mexico’s drug cartels. Mientras nosotros lo encontramos difícil de creer que insultos personales ahora justifican violencia del skyroketing de la mayor parte de México, la declaración de Medina arroja luz en algunos de los desafíos asociados con rastrear y analizar las actividades de droga-traficar con drogas organizaciones. Por una parte, los cárteles son generalmente negocio-orientados, y sus acciones a menudo tienen objetivos estratégicos diseñaron para aumentar ganancias. Por otro lado, la cultura de trafico de drogas de droga y crimen organizado en México es a menudo un negocio familiar. Un ataque en un miembro de la familia, por ejemplo, puede ser percibido como un desafío para honorar y causar que una organización para atacar otro constante cuando esto podría ser mala para el negocio. Desde que esta forma de violencia a menudo ocurre sin advertencia o motivo estratégico, subraya el enorme potencial para la violencia en México para agravarse aun más. Cuando control de trafico de drogas de droga en México llega a ser cada vez más fragmentado, cualquiera de las muchas organizaciones criminales que rivalizan para el poder pronto podría decidir que nuevas formas de violencia son justificadas.



Diciembre. 15
•   Un informe soltado por derechos humanos nacionales de México comisionar estimaciones que aproximadamente 99 por ciento de crímenes en el país va impune.
•   
•   Authorities En Ciudad Juarez, estado de chihuahua, encontró los cuerpos de cuatro personas delante de una bandera que denomina a 28 policías en lo que es presumiblemente una lista negra. Tres de las víctimas habían sido disparos a la muerte, mientras el otro había sido decapitado. Una quinta víctima fue encontrada vivo, pero signos de cojinete de tormento.
•   
•   Authorities En Ciudad Juarez, estado de chihuahua, encontró que los cuerpos de cinco hombres disparaban muerto por una carretera.
•   
Diciembre. 16
•   La policía en Tijuana, estado de Baja California, encontró los cuerpos de dos hombres con múltiples escopetazos en un patio en una residencia privada.
•   
Diciembre. 17
•   Por lo menos dos pistoleros dispararon un director de policía en Acolman, estado de México, varias veces, lo hiriendo.
•   
•   One El hombre se murió después de que un pistolero que coloque como un policía entró su casa y lo disparó de cerca en Tijuana, estado de Baja California.
•   
•   Police En Ecatepec, estado de México, encontró los cuerpos de dos personas no identificadas envueltas en mantas en el tronco de un coche.
•   
•   A El director anterior de la policía del estado de Nayarit se murió cuando un grupo de hombres armados lo disparó nueve veces como él condujo por la capital de estado de Tepic.
•   
•   Authorities En Reynosa, estado de Tamaulipas, encontró el cuerpo de un líder del sindicato que había organizado a trabajadores para el maquiladoras de área.
•   
Diciembre. 18
•   El alcalde anterior de San Juan, estado de Michoacan, se murió después de que sea muchas veces de disparo al conducir un vehículo personal.
•   
•   Authorities En Ciudad Altamirano, estado de Guerrero, encontró el cuerpo decapitado de un hombre con una lectura de nota, “Ve lo que sucede cuando usted recibe órdenes de la familia. Usted pierde la cabeza.”
•   
•   Two Los hombres se murieron después de que sea muchas veces de disparo en un parking de supermercado en Culiacan, estado de Sinaloa.
•   
•   One El hombre se murió después de que varios hombres armaran con rifles de asalto lo disparó varias veces en parking de restaurante en Nogales, estado de Sonora.
•   
•   The El cuerpo de un comandante de policía fue encontrado en Ciudad Juarez, estado de chihuahua, con por lo menos un escopetazo. El había sido secuestrado poco antes su cuerpo fue descubierto.
•   
Diciembre. 19
•   Las autoridades en Cali, Colombia, anunció que el arresto de siete traficantes de drogas creídos haber suministrado cocaína al cártel de Sinaloa de México.
•   
Diciembre. 20
•   Seis hombres se murieron y uno fue herido en una tienda de mecánico en Ciudad Juarez, estado de chihuahua, cuando un grupo de pistoleros entró el edificio y fuego abierto.
•   
•   A El policía en Mazatlan, estado de Sinaloa, se murió desp
===============
México: Fuentes de cártel importantes
El 29 de diciembre de 2008 | 1834 GMT

ALEJANDRO PAGNI/AFP/Getty Imagina

 
Resumen
 
Un mayor mexicano del ejército ha sido detenido para pasar supuestamente información a la organización del droga-trafico de drogas de Beltran Leyva. El arresto representa un doble golpe al gobierno mexicano y demuestra el alcance de los cárteles del país.

 Ejército mexicano Maj. Arturo Gonzalez Rodriguez fue detenido la semana de diciembre. 21 para ayudar supuestamente droga mexicana que trafica con drogas organizaciones para $100.000 por mes, la oficina del fiscal general mexicana diciembre anunciado. 26. Gonzalez fue asignado al Cuerpo Presidencial del Guardia, la unidad responsable de proteger el presidente de México. Basado en declaraciones de un miembro anterior de cártel giró a testigo dio nombre en clavo “Jennifer,” la oficina del fiscal general ha acusado Gonzalez de información pasajera relacionada a las actividades y viaja planes de Presidente mexicano Felipe Calderon al Beltran Leyva organization (BLO). Gonzalez también se para acusado de salir la inteligencia militar, entrenando a hombres de hit de BLO por una compañía privada de la seguridad y suministrando armas militares a varias organizaciones del droga-trafico de drogas, inclusive Zetas de Los.

A la luz de otra corrupción mexicana de alto nivel del gobierno carga sobre los meses pasados, este caso perturba pero ciertamente no viene como una sorpresa.

La revelación que Gonzalez proporcionaba la inteligencia y las materias para endrogar cárteles representan un doble golpe al gobierno mexicano. Primero, el hecho que un miembro de una unidad de ejército responsable de proteger al presidente pasaba información sobre movimientos presidenciales a los cárteles expone un vacío potencialmente fatal en el detalle protector de Calderon. Mientras no es sabido qué información específica Gonzalez tuvo acceso a, o lo que exige detalles que él pasaba a los cárteles, esto es una infracción de la seguridad en el nivel más alto. Según la oficina del fiscal general, el informante Jennifer ha dicho que los cárteles rastreaban los movimientos del presidente con la intención de evitar el nivel alto de la seguridad del gobierno que lo rodea, pero no tuvo plan específico para concentrar en Calderon. Pero la capacidad es más importante que atento, como atento puede cambiar rápidamente. Los movimientos de Calderon que rastrean para evitarlo pudiera haber sido alterado fácilmente a concentrar en Calderon si la necesidad surgió.

Es Gonzalez exactamente cómo implicado poco claro estuvo en los movimientos diarios de Calderon. Porque él estuvo en el personal, está a asumir salvo que él fue implicado por lo menos en reuniones preparatorias y los movimientos generales del presidente, pero de esta información no sería necesariamente suficiente para el cártel para haber podido asesinar Calderon. Más valioso a tal complot habría sido información relacionada a la estrategia presidencial del transporte, a saber, cómo el guardia trabajó para proteger Calderon, cómo arregló transporte, y cómo reunió la inteligencia en amenazas específicas. Las penetraciones en cómo el guardia operado habría dado los cárteles una vislumbre en vulnerabilidades de la seguridad de Calderon — Algo mucho más peligroso a Calderon que simplemente el conocimiento de donde el presidente estaría en algún tiempo dado.

El segundo aspecto del golpe es que Gonzalez había estado aparentemente en la nómina de cártel desde que 2005, durante cuál tiempo él tuvo posiciones diferentes en el gobierno. Cuando él cambió tareas, él fue mantenido en como una ventaja de cártel, y la naturaleza de su participación con los cárteles cambiados. Es enteramente posible que él alimentó información en otros departamentos del ejército (no justo el Cuerpo Presidencial de Guardia) sobre su relación de tres-año con los cárteles.

Una razón primaria para el gobierno mexicano depender del ejército para luchar los cárteles son porque indican y aplicación de la ley local es considerada lejos corrompe también ser fiado de. Uno del military’s strengths was its perceived lower level of corruption Debido a su participación de bajo nivel con los cárteles, pero con este caso (junto con otra corrupción militar detiene este año) confirma que miembros del ejército mexicano también son propenso a corrupción.

Más detalles deben surgir acerca de papel exacto de Gonzalez en el Cuerpo Presidencial de Guardia y la naturaleza de la inteligencia que él pasó al BLO para más valorar exactamente la amenaza que él colocó al presidente. Aún así, el hecho se queda que las capacidades de la inteligencia de los cárteles han extendido a esos cargado con proteger el presidente de México — y de ahí a Mexico’s political stability.

Title: Re: Extradiciones
Post by: omar on January 05, 2009, 10:00:57 AM
Hola a todos

Antes que nada, un gran deseo de éxito en todos los proyectos de los amigos concurrentes al foro, en este 2009  :-D

En el último programa radiofónico del 2008 de Encuentros, que dirige el periodista Ricardo Rocha, él y sus invitados dieron un balance de los sucesos políticos más relevantes de ese año; todos coincidieron que después del movimiento en defensa del petróleo, encabezado por Andrés Manuel López Obrador, el tema de la seguridad fue uno de los más importantes. El analista político Miguel Ángel Granados Chapa, integrante del equipo de comentaristas del programa, comentó al respecto que la guerra en contra del crimen organizado del gobierno federal, no cuenta con estrategia alguna, ya que apenas iniciada su administración, Calderón movilizó a los efectivos del ejercito por todo el país; meses después, tras sufrir innumerables bajas, complementa la acción inicial con otra, totalmente a destiempo, en contra de la infiltración en los órganos de seguridad del gobierno. El analista puntualiza además, la evidente rivalidad entre los jefes de las dos más importantes secretarias de estado encargadas de la seguridad nacional (dado que se les ubica como protectores de carteles antagonistas), todo esto lo lleva a concluir que la acción más importante con la que esta administración pretende legitimar su polémico triunfo electoral, es una farsa.

Un reportaje en el semanario Proceso de la última semana de diciembre refuerza esta hipótesis, aquí un resumen del artículo de Cynthia Rodríguez titulado La alianza zetas- Ndrangheta:

La justicia italiana confirmó que según la agencia antidrogas norteamericana DEA e investigaciones de los carabineri, que el cartel del Golfo, específicamente los zetas, se han aliado con diversas organizaciones mafiosas italianas, en especial con la Ndrangheta (hombres valientes), que opera en la región sud italiana de Reggio Calabria.

Desde enero del año pasado se interceptaron mensajes de los introductores de droga a Europa, desde México, vía Estados Unidos. Esta vigilancia produjo el pasado 7 de agosto, la captura de uno de los encargados de la introducción de cocaína a Italia, Giussepe Collusio, el cual mantenía relación directa con los carteles colombianos y a raíz de su captura provocó que la dirigencia de la Ndrangheta, cambiara de aliados en Sudamérica. El trato se cerró entre ambas organizaciones en una reunión en el barrio neoyorkino de Corona, situando a México como el mayor punto de distribución de cocaína; según confirmó posteriormente el procurador nacional antidrogas italiano Piero Grasso el 17 de septiembre pasado. En esta misma fecha, el secretario de Justicia estadounidense Michael B. Mucasey, expuso el plan Reckoning u operativo Cálculo -conocido como operativo Solare en Italia- acción conjunta antidrogas iniciada 15 mese antes de esa fecha, que involucró la participación de 200 agencias internacionales, produjo 175 personas capturadas (entre ellas a 14 miembros de la mafia calebresa), la incautación de 16 toneladas de cocaína y 57 millones de dólares en efectivo. Además la operación permitió conocer en detalle la forma en como opera el cartel del golfo y sus aliados europeos.

Meses antes de estos hechos, durante la gira europea en 2007, el presidente mexicano, así como los secretarios de estado Genaro García Luna y Eduardo Medina Mora, titulares de la secretaria de seguridad pública y la procuraduría general de la republica respectivamente, visitaron Italia y se reunieron con el propio procurador Grasso; quien les informó como la justicia italiana a enfrentado a las mafias locales y los resultados obtenidos. Resaltó la importancia de la promulgación de leyes específicas, como la Ley antimafia, que castiga la asociación mafiosa e incauta los bienes de los miembros de estas organizaciones. Explicó como funcionan los sistemas de protección, asistencia y beneficios penales a los testigos; así como la coordinación necesaria entre las áreas de seguridad, para que la acción de los jueces se adapte a las evasivas actividades mafiosas. Por último el procurador ofreció a las autoridades mexicanas intercambio de información, adiestramiento policiaco (y de prevención), así como colaboración operativa con la estructura antinarcóticos de la Unión Europea.

Pese al silencio de las autoridades mexicanas  :roll: en torno a este ofrecimiento, el 29 de noviembre de 2008, el ministro del exterior Franco Fratini declaró durante una gira por México –su país debe aprovechar esta oportunidad, se trata de una ayuda operativa importante, que podría dotar de las herramientas a las autoridades para mejorar sus aparatos de investigación- Todavía el pasado martes 9 de diciembre, el procurador antimafia Nicola Gratteri insistió –buscamos una colaboración directa con los mexicanos. La hemos pedido y estamos en espera de una respuesta-  :?

Nos vemos pronto.


      Omar
Title: Stratfor
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 06, 2009, 10:33:46 AM
Gracias por eso Omar.

He aqui el nuevo de Stratfor:
=====================
El Memorándum de la Seguridadde México: Enero. 5, 2008
 STRATFOR TODAY » El 5 de enero de 2009 | 2344 GMT


Fin del año de cierre

El año 2008 acabaron por ser un año sin precedentes en el combate de México contra cárteles de droga. Desafortunadamente para el gobierno, la mayor parte de estos registros son relacionados a la situación de la seguridad del país que empeora, no a ganancias de gobierno contra organizaciones criminales. La mayoría del en particular, 2008 fijo un nuevo registro para homicidios organizados de crimen-relacionó con unos 5.700 matanzas, más que doble el registro anterior de 2.700 alcanzado en 2007. El hecho que 2008 muertes cuenta sola para casi mitad el número total matado sobre los últimos cuatro años es un testamento a la violencia justo cuánta en México ha aumentado sobre el por delante de 12 meses.

Cambiar pautas geográficas de violencia en el último año también parte de punto culminante de los desafíos del gobierno mexicanos. En 2007, por ejemplo, mucha de la violencia ocurrida en los estados de Michoacan, Guerrero y Sinaloa, estados del sudoeste con poblaciones escasas, áreas y montañas rurales vastas que demostraron el territorio ideal almacenar y negociar embarques de droga recibidos en puertos costeros. Durante 2008, sin embargo, mucha de la violencia cambiada al norte: El unos 48 por ciento de todas matanzas durante los últimos 12 meses sucedió en chihuahua y estados de Baja California. Además, mucho de este el norte de violencia fue concentrado en ciudades urbanas grandes como Ciudad Juarez y Tijuana, que presenta operar extraordinariamente diferente ambientes para el ejército mexicano.

Mientras parte del fracaso del ejército mexicano controlar violencia en estas ciudades es relacionada para ser estirada delgado, también es relacionado a una falta relativa de operar de experiencia en ambientes urbanos, que requiere habilidades como asuntos civiles y cooperando más de cerca con aplicación de la ley local. Las tensiones crecientes entre el ejército y los gobiernos civiles han mostrado que el ejército todavía tiene mejoras para hacer — Las mejoras que son difíciles aún para el más profesional y fuerzas de mejor-financió EEUU en Iraq y Afganistán quite.

La perspectiva de estas tendencias que continúan en 2009 hace no esperó el momento oportuno bien para el gobierno mexicano. Mientras no hay indicación que la violencia pronto se estrechará lejos, será también clara que la violencia no puede continuar aumentar indefinidamente. Verdaderamente, el punta en la violencia en noviembre que dejó casi 1.000 muertos no se repitieron en diciembre, que registró 650 matanzas relacionadas al crimen organizado, un nivel más normal comparó a meses anteriores. No obstante, debido a la inestabilidad continua de la situación, está casi inevitable que el problema de crimen continuará representar una seguridad nacional primera concierne para el gobierno a través del año venidero, especialmente como el gobierno encara presiones de ciudadanos y negocios que son afectados.

Una Infracción Presidencial de Seguridad y el Ejército

Pocos detalles adicionales han surgido en las últimas dos semanas con respecto al diciembre. 26 revelación de un cartel penetration of Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s security team. La revelación vino como autoridades anunciaron el arresto de un mayor de ejército asignado al Cuerpo Presidencial del Guardia, uno de varias unidades militares responsables de la seguridad presidencial. La corrupción desenfrenada dada de México y el mucho personal que contribuyen a la seguridad presidencial, no son sorpresa que por lo menos uno de ellos quizás sea manchado. Una fuente mexicana del gobierno dijo Stratfor que el mayor no tuvo acceso a la información más de alto nivel con respecto a Calderon, aunque horario del viaje del presidente ha sido modificado como una precaución.

El arresto del mayor es un recordatorio de los muchos papeles de la seguridad que el ejército mexicano realiza hoy. Stratfor ha observado con frecuencia las limitaciones de las fuerzas armadas mexicanas, que fueron destacadas por la respuesta del ejército al December beheading of eight soldiers in Chilpancingo, Guerrero state. Mientras el incidente ha chispeado atrocidad entre muchos soldados, hay relativamente poco el ejército es capaz de hacer o dispuesto a hacer.

Inmediatamente después del incidente, los soldados en el estado de Guerrero sellaron carreteras y vehículos inspeccionados como ellos buscaron para esos responsable. Las tropas en Michoacan y estados de Morelos realizaron operaciones semejantes. A pesar del perfil alto del incidente, la respuesta del ejército ha sido limitada hasta ahora a desplegar a tropas de guarniciones locales, en comparación con algún cambio de frente a gran escala de fuerzas de en otra parte en el país. Una fuente de Stratfor aconsejó que la Defensa mexicana Secretariado está en el mirador para represalias no autorizadas por soldados contrariados. Mientras hace sentido estratégico para no cambiar de frente muchos a soldados a Guerrero simplemente a causa de soldados de ocho muertos, una respuesta percibida como débil por riesgos de la gente común del ejército que bajan la moral aun más. También demuestra parte de los muchos desafíos asociados con dependiendo del ejército a largo plazo.


Diciembre. 22
•   Un grupo de hombres armados abrió fuego en un partido en Turicato, estado de Michoacan, matando a un hombre y herir a dos mujeres.
•   The El cuerpo de un hombre no identificado con varios escopetazos fue encontrado con los ojos vendados y atado en las muñecas en Acolman, estado de México.
•   The El ejército mexicano anunció el arresto de Javier “El Java” Diaz Ramon en Cancun, estado de Quintana Roo. Diaz es un miembro pretendido del cártel de Golfo que está supuestamente encargado de operaciones de cártel en Quintana Roo y estados de Veracruz.
Diciembre. 23
•   Las fuerzas mexicanas del ejército retuvieron siete hombres y a una mujer en la posesión de rifles de asalto, las pistolas, la munición y más de $50.000 Guadalajara en efectivo cercano, estado de Jalisco. La mujer había ganado recientemente un desfile de la belleza de estado de Sinaloa.
•   A El grupo de personas en un camión despidió más de 100 series en Chalco, estado de México, matando a una persona e hiriendo otro.
Diciembre. 24
•   El subdirector de la seguridad pública en Zihuatanejo, estado de Guerrero, fue detenido junto con siete policías para proporcionar supuestamente la protección para un miembro de un grupo de pistoleros implicados en un tiroteo con el ejército mexicano fuerza el día antes.
•   The Los cuerpos de ocho personas no identificadas fueron encontrados en bolsas plásticas por una carretera rural Tuxtla Gutierrez cercano, estado de Chiapas. Por lo menos uno de los cuerpos mostró signos de tormento.
Diciembre. 25
•   La cabeza y el cuerpo carbonizada atado y con los ojos vendados de un hombre fueron encontrados fuera de una escuela en Acapulco, Guerrero.
•   Authorities En el estado de Guerrero encontró el cuerpo del coordinador público de la seguridad y el transporte de del de Coatlan Rio, estado de Morelos, que es pensado haber sido raptado diciembre. 17.
Diciembre. 26
•   Arturo Gonzalez Rodriguez, un mayor en el ejército mexicano y un miembro del Cuerpo Presidencial de Guardia, fue informado detenido para vender la inteligencia en los movimientos y la ubicación de Presidente mexicano Felipe Calderon a la organización del droga-trafico de drogas de Beltran Leyva.
Diciembre. 27
•   Un policía en Acapulco, estado de Guerrero, se murió después de que por lo menos un disparo armado de hombre él como él pasara por la calle.
•   Several Los hombres armados utilizaron camiones para bloquear una Ciudad de Kansas el sur de viajes de tren del puerto de Lazaro Cardenas México D.F. Los hombres continuaron para forzar su manera en varios de los coches de contenedor y quitar los bienes antes de huir la escena.
Diciembre. 28
•   Dos policías del estado en Aguascalientes, estado de Aguascalientes, se murió cuando un grupo de hombres armados en varios vehículos los disparó muchas veces. Un tercer agente fue disparo a la muerte en un ataque semejante en otra parte de la ciudad.
Diciembre. 30
•   Los residentes en Ixmiquilpan, estado de Hidalgo, retuvo a dos agentes federales por 17 horas para arrancar supuestamente dinero de emigrantes.
Diciembre. 31
•   Las fuerzas mexicanas del ejército informaron la captura de Alberto “La Fresa” Espinoza Barron, pensó ser un teniente de alto rango en la organización de crimen de La Familia.
•   More Que 40 miembros y los socios sospechados del cártel de Golfo fueron detenidos como parte de Considerar “del Proyecto de EEUU Administración Droga Aplicación, la Fase II.”
•   Authorities En el Ideal de Nuevo, estado de Durango, encontró los cuerpos de dos hombres que fueron secuestrados supuestamente por varios hombres armados.
Enero. 1
•   Los agentes federales que sirven una orden de registro en Torreon, estado de Coahuila, llegó a ser entró en un tiroteo de cuatro-hora con holed de pistoleros arriba en un piso franco. Cuatro agentes fueron heridos durante el incidente.
Enero. 2
•   Un convoy militar fue atacado en un área rural de estado de chihuahua, dejando a tres soldados heridos. Tres pistoleros se murieron cuando los soldados volvieron fuego.

Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 14, 2009, 08:41:29 AM
EEUU informe militar advierte "desplome repentino" de México es posible
By Diana Washington Valdez / El Paso Times
Anunciado: El 03:49:34 del 01/13/2009 P.M. MST
 
El presidente electo Barack Obama escucha como el Presidente de México Felipe Calderon hace una declaración a periodistas en Washington, el lunes, enero. 12, 2009. México es uno de dos países eso "consideración de oso para un desplome rápido y repentino," según un informe por EEUU Fuerzas que Conjuntas Ordenan en amenazas mundiales de seguridad. (Foto de AP)

El PASO de EL - México es uno de dos países eso "consideración de oso para un desplome rápido y repentino," según un informe por EEUU Fuerzas que Conjuntas Ordenan en amenazas mundiales de seguridad.

La orden "Coyuntura que Opera Ambiente (JOE 2008)" informe, que contiene proyecciones de amenazas y potencial globales próximas guerras, ponen Pakistán en el mismo nivel como México. "En función de guiones de peor-caso para la Fuerza Conjunta y verdaderamente el mundo, dos estados grandes e importantes soportan consideración para un desplome rápido y repentino: Pakistán y México.

"La posibilidad mexicana puede parecer menos probable, pero el gobierno, sus políticos, la policía e infraestructura judicial son todo bajo asalto y prensa sostenidos por pandillas criminales y endrogan cárteles. Cómo

Esta imagen proporcionada por Aplicación de Droga de EEUU Administración muestra un cartel de 10 personas identificadas como traficantes de drogas que rivales encerraron una batalla violenta para el control de Tijuana, México. Ellos incluyen Fernando Sanchez Arellano, descrito por el DEA como líder del cártel de Arellano Felix, y de su competidor, Eduardo Teodoro Garcia Simental. México es uno de dos países eso "consideración de oso para un desplome rápido y repentino," según un informe por EEUU Fuerzas que Conjuntas Ordenan en amenazas mundiales de seguridad. El informe es uno en un grave centrándose en problemas internos de seguridad de México, proviniendo de en su mayor parte violencia de droga y corrupción de droga. (Foto/DEA de AP)

Esas vueltas internas del conflicto fuera en los próximos varios años tendrán un impacto mayor en la estabilidad del estado mexicano. Cualquier bajada por México en el caos demandaría una respuesta norteamericana basada en las implicaciones graves para la seguridad de la patria sola".

Las Fuerzas de la Coyuntura de EEUU Ordenan, basado en Norfolk, Va., es uno de los Ministerios de Defensa combate órdenes que incluye a miembros de las ramas militares diferentes de servicio, activo y las reservas, así como empleados de civil y contrato. Uno de sus papeles clave es de ayudar a transformarse las capacidades del ejército de EEUU.

En el prefacio, Gen Marino. J.N. Mattis, el comandante de USJFC, dijo "Predicciones acerca del futuro son siempre arriesgado ... a pesar de todo, si nosotros no tratamos de pronosticar el futuro, no quepa duda que seremos agarrados de protege como nosotros nos esforzamos por proteger este experimento en la democracia que llamamos América".

El informe es uno en un grave centrándose en problemas internos de seguridad de México, proviniendo de en su mayor parte violencia de droga y corrupción de droga. En semanas recientes, el Departamento de la Seguridad de la Patria y zar anterior de droga de EEUU Barry McCaffrey publicó alarmas semejantes acerca de México.

A pesar de tales informes, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, un dirigente empresarial contiguo, dijo que ella mantiene chocando con personas en la región que "están en la negación acerca de lo que sucede en México".
La semana pasada, Presidente mexicano Felipe Calderon instruyó su embajada y a funcionarios consulares para promover una imagen positiva de México.

EEUU informe militar, que también analizó situaciones económicas en otros países, también notó que China ha aumentado su influencia en lugares donde campos petrolíferos son presentes.

Diana Washington Valdez puede ser alcanzado en dvaldez@elpasotimes.com; 546-6140.   

Title: Stratfor: Desafio
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 15, 2009, 09:22:56 AM
La Agendageopolítica: Desafío de México de Obama

El Secretario Interior mexicano Fernando Gomez Mont el miércoles criticó un informe reciente de Orden de Fuerzas de Coyuntura de EEUU que advierte del potencial para el estado mexicano desplomar y decir que una descentralización de control en México requeriría intervención de EEUU. La declaración de Gomez Mont, junto con preocupación creciente a través de Estados Unidos sobre la estabilidad de México, es otro recordatorio más de los desafíos frente al gobierno mexicano -— Y la administración presidencial entrante de Barack Obama.

Cuando violencia en México se eleva para registrar niveles —- más de 5.700 personas se murieron en la violencia crimen-relacionado organizada en 2008 — El gobierno de EEUU ha comenzado gradualmente a notar la severidad de la situación. Aunque Washington ciertamente ha estado esperando la transición a una nueva administración, ha habido un cambio en la manera México es discutido en círculos de política -– Cuando visto con la Coyuntura que Opera Ambiente 2008 informa. El Departamento de EEUU de la Seguridad de la Patria, el Departamento de la Justicia y el Consejo Nacional de Seguridad tiene todo, en de un solo sentido u otro, expresado semejante concierne que México quizás desplome bajo el esfuerzo de la violencia de cártel de droga, o eso podría haber derrame significativo de violencia en Estados Unidos.

Hasta cierto punto, el equipo de Obama ha señalado que hace caso de estas advertencias de la situación que hace al sur de la frontera. El Presidente mexicano Felipe Calderon es el único jefe de estado extranjero de encontrar hasta ahora con Obama, cuya inauguración es la semana próxima, y las dos esperanzas expresadas para la cooperación mutua en años venideros. Y Ministro-Designa Hillary Clinton dijo durante su audición de confirmación que la nueva administración buscará participación más grande con México y el resto de Iberoamérica.

Hacer a mano una política de Iberoamérica de la tela entera será un desafío para la administración de Obama, como la relación de la región con Estados Unidos se cayó en un estado de descuido bajo la administración de Bush. Clinton prometió que la administración de Obama utilizaría las asociaciones de energía para asegurar una relación cercana con Iberoamérica —- Un objetivo especialmente importante de política, dado que Venezuela y México están entre los primeros cinco suministradores de petróleo a Estados Unidos. La administración de Obama también planea eliminarse restricciones de viaje y remesa Bush ha recaudado contra Cuba.

Pero situación volátil de seguridad de México se queda entre el potencial más significativo desafía la nueva administración encarará, y no es claro si hay mucho más que puede ser hecho en el asunto. Con conexiones que refuerzan entre pandillas de calle de EEUU y cárteles mexicanos, el problema de violencia mexicana es de ninguna manera limitados al lado mexicano de la frontera.

Esto no quiere decir que el gobierno de EEUU no haya hecho nada; la Iniciativa de Merida asignó cientos de millones de dólares para mejorar la instrucción y el equipo para la aplicación de la ley mexicana. Pero Merida es justo el más prominente de una serie de iniciativas la administración de Bush ha estado aplicando calladamente con México sobre los últimos pocos años. También ha habido aumentos sin precedentes en extradiciones, las expansiones de Aplicación de Droga de EEUU Agencia (DEA) presencia administrativa en México y compartir aumentado de inteligencia. La financiación más grande para oficiales locales de aplicación de la ley y Patrulla de fronteras de EEUU ha facilitado operaciones por lado de EEUU de la frontera y ayudado a reducir parte del flujo de armas en México, y ha impresionado apreciablemente pautas contiguas de tráfico. Esto significa que las opciones bajo-colgantes de política disponibles a un presidente de EEUU ya han sido aplicadas. Qué se queda son las decisiones más difíciles.

Por ejemplo, uno de las quejas primeras mexicanas de gobierno concierne el flujo de armas ilegales: Estados Unidos es la No. 1 fuente de armas ilegales en México (aunque hay un flujo significativo por América Central). Muchas de esas armas son compradas legalmente e imposible de encontrar en ferias de armas Estados Unidos interior. Las fuentes dentro del gobierno mexicano consideran la financiación más grande para programas como Traficante de armas de Operación, que financia interdicto de armamentos en el lado de EEUU de la frontera, para ser uno de las principales áreas en los que la administración de Obama podría tener un impacto significativo. Sin embargo, la oportunidad que cambios substanciales al enfoque de EEUU en regulaciones de fusil y armas serán hechos en el nombre de una asociación con México parece bajo.

Pero la inflexibilidad no es limitada a Estados Unidos. La desgana de México para permitir que libertad de aplicación de la ley de EEUU en operaciones o para permitir la presencia de EEUU agencias militares de tendones de la corva de consejeros, como el DEA, que tiene probado sumamente efectivo en combatir organizó crimen en países como Colombia. Mexicanos recuerdan invasiones de EEUU de su país en 1914 y 1916, durante la Revolución mexicana. Muchas culpa Estados Unidos para romper la espalda del gobierno mexicano forzando el ejército para partir su despliegue en rebeldes luchadores de Zapatista en el sur y Casa de campo de Pancho al norte. México, en total, es por lo tanto reacio permitir a tropas de EEUU para pisar su tierra en el nuevo siglo.

La posibilidad de verdadero EEUU-cooperación mexicana a combatir la violencia que plaga México levanta más preguntas que contesta. Pero sin un cambio notable en las pautas de violencia que haría un cambio de política más urgente — por ejemplo un cambio a concentrar en civiles a ambos lados de la frontera, o del asesinato de líderes clave en México — Allí parezca ser pequeño que puede ser prescindido de gastar mucha capital política. Y con los otros desafíos, inclusive una Rusia resurgente y Pakistán caótico, frente a la presidencia de Obama, cambios significativos en la política de México no parecen probables en el futuro próximo.

Title: Ataque a Televisa
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 15, 2009, 10:10:52 PM
?Alguien puede compartir noticias sobre el ataque al Televisa?
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 16, 2009, 01:39:39 PM
?Nadie?

?O eso?

El Paso Times
Jan 15, 2009
Daniel Borunda
http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11463340

A group calling itself the Comando Ciudadano por Juárez, or the Juárez Citizens Command, is claiming it will kill a criminal every 24 hours to bring order to the violent crime-plagued city.  The announcement of the supposed group was the first known case of possible organized vigilantism in Juárez as police and the military have been apparently unable to stop a plague of killings and other crimes.

"Better the death of a bad person than that they continue to contaminating our region," the news release stated in Spanish.

The supposed group issued a news release via e-mail stating it is nonpartisan and funded by businessmen fed up with crime.  The group, also calling itself the CCJ, said it would issue a manifesto in the coming days and would set up a system where residents can electronically send information about criminals.

"Our mission is to terminate the life of a criminal every 24 hours ... The hour has come to stop this disorder in Juárez," the CCJ stated.

The announcement comes as Juárez struggles with a wave of homicides, extortions, carjackings, robberies and other crimes that began last year. Business people, teachers, medical professionals and others were targeted by extortionists in the last year as crime surged due in a part to a war between drug cartels. There were more than 1,600 homicides in Juárez last year. There have been more than 40 homicides already this year, including 10 on Wednesday.
Title: Stratfor
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 20, 2009, 08:30:26 AM
El Vigilante potencial Violencia en el Estado de chihuahua

Un email empezó circular alrededor de estado de chihuahua esto semana pasada escribió supuestamente por un grupo que llama a los Ciudadanos de Juarez Ordena (CCJ). El grupo, cuál reclamos para ser apoyados por negocios locales afectados por la subida aguda en la violencia en Ciudad Juarez, prometieron matar un criminal para terminar cada 24 horas la anarquía en la ciudad. El email también indicó que dentro de varios días el CCJ distribuiría un manifiesto que visita a todos ciudadanos hartos de la violencia para unir la causa. Una fuente de Stratfor en el gobierno mexicano las autoridades que informado que mexicanas tienen razón para creer que el email no es una trampa, y que ellos exploran dos teorías con respecto a que lo enviaron. Uno mantiene que un pequeño grupo de propietarios de ciudadanos y negocio enviaron el mensaje, mientras la teoría más creíble mantiene que un grupo criminal que proponiéndose utilizar el email como cobertura para la acción envió el mensaje.

De un solo sentido para medir si el CCJ representa un grupo verdadero de vigilante será de examinar las asociaciones criminales de sus víctimas, asumir, por supuesto, ellos atacan realmente a criminales. Si las víctimas del CCJ todo es asociado con un sindicado criminal, será difícil de creer que no es simplemente un existir el grupo criminal que utiliza el CCJ como cobertura. Pero si el CCJ está en tomar medidas de hecho será extraordinariamente difícil de determinar en una ciudad como Ciudad Juarez, donde más de 1.700 personas se murieron en 2008. Dada la violencia regular de criminales que matan a criminales en la ciudad, el significado del CCJ tiene mas ser determinado.

Si el email marca realmente el fundador de un nuevo grupo de vigilante en Juarez, esto no sería primer cepillo de México con la vigilancia callejera de endrogar violencia. La organización de La Familia en el estado de Michoacan empezó como una respuesta local de vigilante para endrogar trafico de drogas en el estado. Varios años después de su fundador, sin embargo, el grupo ha evolucionado en uno del estado la mayoría del notorio grupos de secuestro y droga-traficando con drogas, y de uno de sus facciones fue implicado aún en el septiembre. 15 ataque de la granada contra civiles en Morelia. El ejemplo de La Familia destaca las implicaciones de la seguridad de violencia de vigilante, donde organizó como violencia criminal continúa girar fuera de control, un grupo de ciudadanos armados que une el combate sólo complicará asuntos.

El Robo aumentado, el Robo De Negocios de Acapulco

El líder de una organización del negocio en Acapulco, estado de Guerrero, soltó una declaración esto semana pasada que describe un aumento en robos y robos en el último año. Según los registros de la organización, cierre al 100 por ciento de negocios locales había sufrido pérdidas de grupos criminales. El agregó que tres distribuidores locales de productos lácteos habían experimentado sólo 2.000 tales incidentes en la ciudad durante 2008, ascendiendo a una pérdida colectiva de fin a $1 millón. La mayoría de robos parece estar ocurriendo en áreas suburbanas de la ciudad, donde armó las pandillas asaltan camiones de distribución como ellos hacen entregas, aunque robos desarmados en almacenes y oficinas también parecen haber ocurrido.

Este informe es el último ejemplo de cómo situación de seguridad de México que empeora afecta operaciones de negocio. Cuando Stratfor ha observado en el último año, el desplome en el orden público en mucho del país ha significado que otro criminal agrupa no implicado en el comercio de droga pueden operar con la impunidad. Verdaderamente, la organización del negocio de Acapulco observó que la mayoría de los crímenes contra negocios van impune, y eso cuando sus conclusiones fueron informadas a los funcionarios de la policía, ellos fueron desconcertados por el número asombrosamente alto de crímenes contra negocios. Los costos crecientes de la seguridad y pérdidas más altas debido a actividad criminal exacerban un ya empeorando situación económica en México, y lo hará más difícil para negocios para recuperar una vez la situación económica general comienza a mejorar.

Mientras las instalaciónes portuarias de Acapulco han hecho históricamente la ciudad un punto importante de toma para embarques sudamericano-Producidos de droga, la ciudad ha experimentado niveles relativamente bajos de actividad cártel-relacionado sobre el por delante de seis meses. Y los negocios en una ciudad relativamente tranquila como Acapulco que experimentan tales índices de criminalidad altos hacen no esperó el momento oportuno bien para negocios en situaciones críticas de cártel como Tijuana y en Ciudad Juarez.

La Infracción de la seguridad en un Ambiente Objetivo-Rico

La policía en Morelia, estado de Michoacan, detuvo a un hombre armado con una pistola esto semana pasada dentro del edificio legislativo de estado durante un acontecimiento donde indica Gov. Leonel Godoy hablaba. El hombre fue detenido después de que alguien en la multitud accidentalmente lo chocara contra, sentía el fusil ocultado bajo su ropa, y bajo el personal puesto sobre aviso de la seguridad, que retuvo al hombre sin incidente. Junto con Godoy, el presidente de la corte suprema del estado, la cabeza del poder legislativo del estado y 40 legisladores también fue presente. El hombre armado fue identificado teniendo como un antecedentes penales, y es acusado de asesinar a un abogado en Monterrey en 1986.

Las autoridades soltaron finalmente al hombre después de que encontrar no evidencia que él pensara atacar nadie en el acontecimiento. Incluso si este incidente no fuera una tentativa de asesinato, una infracción de la seguridad como esto destacan la vulnerabilidad de muchos funcionarios en México. Que un hombre armado fue permitido entrar un acontecimiento con Godoy — quién ha sido amenazado supuestamente antes — En un ambiente controlado subraya los problemas con la seguridad ejecutiva en México. Mientras Presidente mexicano Felipe Calderon y algunos funcionarios federales de alto rango ciertamente tienen programas protectores más robustos de seguridad, los niveles relativamente bajos de la seguridad alrededor, por ejemplo, los congresistas del país y gobernadores, no son mucho de un freno a un ataque en ellos ni en sus familias. Así que debe organizaciones criminales en México escogen agravarse su combate contra el gobierno, ellos encontrarán a sí mismo en un ambiente objetivo-rico.




Enero. 12
•   El estado de Hidalgo la oficina que pública de la seguridad anunció que planes para empezar equipando sus policías con armas de grande-calibre y posiblemente aún granadas para ayudarlos confrontan los grupos criminales.
•   Authorities En Torreon, estado de Coahuila, encontró el cuerpo de un hombre con los ojos vendados no identificado con un escopetazo a la cabeza y otro al cuello.
•   Officials En La Huerta, estado de Jalisco, informó la muerte de jefe de la policía del pueblo. Tres hombres tuvieron disparo él como él se fue de casa la noche antes.
•   The El cuerpo de un hombre no identificado fue encontrado en un terreno vacío en Los Mochis, estado de Sinaloa, soportando signos de tormento en su cuerpo. La policía cree que él había sido estrangulado.
•   Mexican El ejército fuerza invadió una casa en Tijuana, estado de Baja California, agarrando más de $1 millón, así como unas 100 libras de metanfetaminas, la cocaína y la heroína.


Enero. 13
•   La policía federal en Acapulco, estado de Guerrero, estableció una serie de puntos de revisión de carretera en varias partes de la ciudad. Los funcionarios dijeron que los puntos de revisión fueron diseñados para buscar vehículos robados, pero que inspecciones que buscan drogas y armas también serían realizadas.
•   Police En Tijuana, estado de Baja California, encontró el cuerpo que arde de una mujer quemó más allá de reconocimiento. En otra parte en la ciudad, la policía encontró el cuerpo de un hombre no identificado envuelto en una manta.


Enero. 15
•   La policía federal en Veracruz, estado de Veracruz, informó descubriendo el cuerpo de un hombre no identificado con por lo menos un escopetazo a la cabeza.
•   Armed Los hombres que viajan en un disparo de vehículo y mataron a un hombre no identificado después de que primero lo persiguiendo por las calles de Ciudad Juarez, estado de chihuahua. Los pistoleros lo dispararon muchas veces después de que él perdiera control de su coche y chocara.
•   Mexican La marina fuerza captó un pequeño barco en el Mar de Cortez a varios millas la costa de estado de Sinaloa con huellas de marihuana a bordo.

Enero. 16
•   Las autoridades en Oaxaca, estado de Oaxaca, anunció que la captura de tres miembros de una pandilla asociada con Zetas de Los acusadas de habiendo tomado parte en por lo menos cinco secuestros en el estado.
•   A El policía anterior del estado de chihuahua se murió después de que sea muchas veces de disparo al conducir por Ciudad Juarez.
•   Some 100 policías federales llegaron en Matamoros, estado de Coahuila, para apoyar los esfuerzos progresivos contra grupos organizados de criminal en el estado.
•   Authorities En el del de Playa Carmen, estado de Quintana Roo, encontró seis granadas de fragmentación dentro de una furgoneta abandonada por una carretera.
•   A Custodie a comandante en Pihuamo, estado de Jalisco, se murió cuando él fue muchas veces de disparo al conducir. Su hijo fue herido en el ataque.

Enero. 18
•   Un policía en Sonoyta, estado de Sonora, se murió después de que un hombre armado lo se acercara y lo disparara dos veces en la cabeza de cerca antes de huir en un vehículo que espera.
•   Five Las personas se murieron durante un tiroteo que arrojó durante una celebración de la boda Acapulco cercano, estado de Guerrero. Las autoridades dijeron que el motivo se queda poco claro.
Tell Stratfor What You Think

Title: Stratfor
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 22, 2009, 05:05:03 PM
Resumen

 La salida en compañía petrolera del estado de México Petroleos Mexicanos se cayó el 9 por ciento en 2008, su más rápida gota desde que la Segunda Guerra Mundial. La compañía es improbable invertir ese descenso en cualquier momento pronto, cualquiera.

Análisis

 Engrase salida en compañía petrolera del estado de México, Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), dejó caer el 9 por ciento en 2008 acerca de 2,8 millones de barriles por día (bpd). Esto es hacia abajo de 3,08 millones de bpd en 2007, y del punto alto nunca igualado de Pemex de acerca de 3,8 millones de bpd en 2004.

La gota es en gran parte debido a producción declinante en campo masivo de Cantarell de México, que en acerca de 900.000 bpd es responsable de acerca de la tercera parte de salida total de Pemex. Y con la capacidad limitada a realizar perforación offshore profunda, un clima inestable de inversión y una industria de energía sujetos a restricciones legales pesadas, Pemex es improbable invertir su descenso de la producción a corto plazo.

El 2008 descenso en la producción en Pemex traduce a una pérdida de renta estimada por Bloomberg de $20 mil millones para la empresa de estado-poseyó. Y Pemex ha estacado efectivamente su capacidad de ganancia en el campo de Cantarell — Cuando tiene el gobierno mexicano: México D.F. financia alrededor del 40 por ciento de su presupuesto de rentas de Pemex.

La producción en Cantarell, el campo más tercer-grande de mundo, empezó en 1979. Su ubicación en aguas 100-130 pies hondo lejos costa del sudeste de México significó que Pemex no necesitaba para desarrollar capacidad de agua profunda significativa de perforación. Cuándo comenzó a encarar el asunto de la producción declinante en los años ochenta, Pemex emprendió medidas a corto plazo inyectando nitrógeno en los depósitos del campo a mantener presión. Pero Pemex nunca desarrolló una capacidad de agua profunda de perforación que habría permitido lo explotar nuevos campos adicionales offshore (donde mitad de reservas crudas de México es encontrada).

Compensando la producción declinante en Cantarell será casi imposible en el corto al término medio, aunque. Pemex simply lacks the money or indigenous technical capability Para utilizar campos offshore de agua profundas que permitirían lo invertir apreciablemente un descenso de la producción. Y encara una barra constitucional a formar las asociaciones con compañías petroleras extranjeras que permitirían las empresas extranjeras poseer parte de su salida de petróleo. Esto excluye acuerdos de empresa conjunta o producción-compartiendo, que son los métodos comunes de atraer inversión en el extranjero. Aunque attempts to enact constitutional changes to allow these agreements have failed, El gobierno mexicano pasó un paquete de reforma de energía en octubre 2008 que cambiará la organización Pemex para aumentar eficiencia y permitirlo emplear compañías petroleras internacionales para aumentar el acceso del país a la pericia tecnológica.

Sin embargo, hay desafíos que encaran este proceso de reforma. En primer lugar, la implementación de estas reformas va lentamente, y algunas reformas dependerán de un consenso entre tres partidos de México, que es casi siempre un proceso difícil. Además, el clima internacional de inversión es muy inestable tras crisis financiera de EEUU y la baja económica, global y progresiva. Esto significa que podría ser difícil para Pemex asegure el financiamiento que lo necesita para emplear pericia exterior, y lucha interna política emparejada con niveles altos de corrupción persistente no hará a inversionistas más cómodos. Dados estos desafíos, nueva producción bajo el plan de reforma de energía será lenta en la venida.

La producción en Cantarell es esperada disminuir por un adicional 500.000 bpd en los próximos varios años. Para compensar el descenso de Cantarell, Pemex quiere tratar de apretar salida adicional de campos existentes (tiene aparejos de producción en campos cerca y en profundidades de agua semejantes a Cantarell, así como aparejos en más pequeño, tierra adentro campos).

Pero para aumentar apreciablemente salida, en el nivel de 500.000 bpd o más, objetivos de Pemex para abrir nuevo tierra adentro y campos offshore. Tierra adentro desarrollo ocurre en Veracruz de México y estados de Puebla. La producción allí, mientras proyectado en 500.000 bpd, no es esperado venir en línea antes de 2021, sin embargo. La exploración offshore más promete en función de utilizar las reservas crudas (estimó en 24 mil millones de barriles), pero Pemex falta una capacidad a gran escala para levantar crudo de niveles de agua profundas. Aunque Pemex ha taladrado a profundidades de 3.000 pies, su dos existir plataformas de agua profundas — más tres en la orden esperada llegar en 2010 — No son esperados traer la producción de campos de agua profundas en línea antes de 2015. Aún entonces, la producción es esperada rendir menos de 100.000 bpd.

Estos descensos en la producción cruda llevarán a rentas reducidas no sólo para la compañía, pero más críticamente, para el gobierno mexicano, y para el desafío no podría venir en un tiempo más peligroso. México es enredado en un war against drug cartels. La situación de la seguridad del país empeoró enormemente sobre el curso de 2008, y no muestra signos de dejar para levantar. Al mismo tiempo, la baja económica global ha creado el desempleo creciente en México, una vista pesimista del crecimiento y llamadas de mexicanos para el gobierno para encontrar soluciones, y encontrarlos rápidamente. Debe el descenso en la producción no es counterbalanced por la producción aumentada en campos existentes, ni debe el descenso acelera, México se encontrará en una posición fiscal cada vez más inestable como desafíos montan y los recursos menguan.

Title: WSJ
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 26, 2009, 05:56:32 AM
Por Joel Kurtzman

México actualmente está en medio de una salvaje guerra del narcotráfico. Policías están siendo sobornados y, especialmente cerca de la frontera con Estados Unidos, asesinados a tiros. Los secuestros y la extorsión son habituales. Y, lo más alarmante de todo, un nuevo estudio del Pentágono concluye que México está en riesgo de convertirse en un estado fallido. Planificadores del Departamento de Defensa de EE.UU. comparan la situación a la de Pakistán, donde es posible un colapso total del gobierno civil.

Uno de los epicentros de la violencia es Tijuana, donde el año pasado murieron 600 personas a causa de violencia relacionada al narcotráfico. A muchos les dispararon con rifles de asalto en las calles y los dejaron morir allí. A algunos los mataron en discotecas frente a testigos demasiado atemorizados para hablar.

Puede ser sólo cuestión de tiempo antes de que la guerra de las drogas se extienda al otro lado de la frontera e ingrese a EE.UU. Para enfrentar esa amenaza, Michael Chertoff, el saliente secretario de Seguridad Nacional, hace poco anunció que EE.UU. tiene un plan de "aumentar" las fuerzas del orden civiles y posiblemente militares en la frontera en caso de que sea necesario.

El problema es que en la más reciente erupción de violencia en México, es difícil distinguir a los buenos de los malos. El zar antidroga de México, Noé Ramírez Mandujano, fue acusado hace poco de aceptar US$450.000 de capos narco a quienes se suponía que estaba persiguiendo. Esta fue la segunda vez en los últimos años que uno de los jefes antidrogas fue arrestado por aceptar presuntas coimas de líderes narco. Existen muchas sospechas de que jefes policiales, alcaldes y militares también reciben sobornos.

En el pasado, la forma en que México se ocupaba de la corrupción era con los ojos completamente cerrados. Todos sabían que una gran cantidad de funcionarios del gobierno estaban aceptando sobornos, pero nadie hizo nada al respecto. Se establecieron comisionados de transparencia, pero sin capacidad de acción.

Y los narcotraficantes de México usaban el laxo orden público que conseguían con sus coimas para convertirse en grupos altamente organizados. Una vez organizados, han podido llenar el vacío de poder en el mundo criminal que dejó la exitosa ofensiva del presidente colombiano, Álvaro Uribe, contra los carteles de la droga de su país.

El resultado es que los narcotraficantes se están volviendo ricos, mientras que México paga un alto precio en vidas humanas perdidas y en actividad económica que, de lo contrario, podrían traer una pizca de prosperidad al país.

En 2008, México se ubicó en el puesto número 31 entre 60 países en el índice de opacidad del Instituto Milken/Kurtzman Group. El costo de tener instituciones de pobre funcionamiento ha sido enorme para los mexicanos comunes. Mi colega Glenn Yago y yo calculamos que si México redujera la corrupción y elevara sus estándares legales, económicos, contables y de regulación a los niveles de los de EE.UU. (EE.UU. se encuentra en el puesto número 13 y Finlandia está primero), el PIB per cápita nominal aumentaría en aproximadamente US$18.000 a cerca de US$28.000 al año. También recibiría mucha más inversión extranjera directa que crearía puestos de trabajo.

Y esto impacta a EE.UU. Gracias al retrasado crecimiento económico, millones de mexicanos han cruzado ilegalmente a EE.UU. para buscar trabajo. A menos que la violencia pueda ser detenida, EE.UU. puede anticipar que el flujo a través de la frontera continuará.

Hay que darle crédito al presidente de México, Felipe Calderón, por desplegar 45.000 miembros del ejército y 5.000 policías federales para enfrentar a los narcotraficantes. Esto sugiere que está tomando seriamente la violencia y la amenaza al gobierno civil.

Sin embargo, el camino por adelante será arduo. México no sólo debe luchar contra sus capos narco, sino que tiene que hacerlo mientras pone su casa institucional en orden. Eso significa despedir empleados estatales que son corruptos o que no estén dispuestos a hacer el trabajo necesario para eliminar la corrupción. Probablemente también requerirá meter a cientos, o incluso miles, de oficiales de policía en la cárcel.

Por más de un siglo, México y EE.UU. han tenido relaciones amistosas y cierto grado de integración económica. Pero si la epidemia de violencia continúa en México, esa relación podría terminar si EE.UU. se ve forzada a aumentar su personal en la frontera.

Joel Kurtzman, un miembro senior del Instituto Milken, es coautor de Global Edge: Using the Opacity Index to Manage the Risk of Cross-Border Business (algo así como "Ventaja Global: usando el índice de opacidad para gestionar el riesgo de los negocios internacionales") (Harvard Business School Press, 2007).

Title: New York Times: Frontera no es obstaculo
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 02, 2009, 03:03:49 AM
TUCSON — Los narcotraficantes aparcaron un remolque de transporte de coche contra el lado mexicano de la frontera un día en diciembre, dejaron caer una rampa sobre la valla de la seguridad, y condujo dos furgonetas llenaron de marihuana en tierra de Arizona.
Los narcotraficantes de México quemaron su camión y la marihuana que lo llevó antes de huir de agentes contiguos en Arizona.
Como Border Patrol Los agentes persiguieron, un tercer camión pareció en el lado y los pistoleros mexicano rociados ametrallan fuego por encima de la cerca en los agentes. Los contrabandistas en los primeros vehículos incendiaron un camión y abandonaron el otro, con $1 millón de valor de marihuana todavía en la cama de camión. Entonces ellos saltaron atrás sobre la barrera en Mexico’Estado de s Sonora.

A pesar de acciones inmensas de aplicación en ambos lados del el sudoeste de la frontera, el comercio mexicano de marihuana es más robusto — y bronceado — Que nunca, funcionarios de aplicación de la ley dicen. Mexican drug cartels Las cargas rutinariamente transportadas del industrial-tamaño de marihuana en 2008, excavando nuevos túneles y adoptar que tácticas quieren contrabando que rampa-ayudado para conseguir sus cargas a través de sin ser visto.

Pero éstos no son las único nuevas tácticas: los cárteles también plantan cada vez más cosechas de marihuana Estados Unidos que interior en un cambio mayor de estrategia para evitar la frontera enteramente, los funcionarios dijeron. El año pasado, las autoridades de aplicación de droga confiscaron cantidades sin precedentes de plantas altas de potencia de Miami a San Diego, e incluso de viñas arrendadas por cárteles en el Estado de Washington. Los traficantes de drogas mexicanos también se han cambiado a la producción hidropónica de marihuana — el cannabis crecido dentro sin tierra y alimentado con lámparas solares — Asiático desafiante hacer contactos y cultivadores más pequeños e individuales aquí.

Un informe del Ministerio de la justicia publicado concluyó el año pasado que droga mexicana que trafica con drogas organizaciones ahora operado en 195 ciudades, arriba de acerca de 50 ciudades en 2006.

Los cuatro cárteles más grandes con filiales en ciudades de EEUU fueron la Federación, el Cártel de Tijuana, el Cártel de Juarez y el Cártel de Golfo.

“Hay evidencia que cárteles mexicanos también aumentan sus relaciones con pandillas de prisión y calle en Estados Unidos para facilitar trafico de drogas de droga,” un informe Congresional de 2008 de febrero indicado. Los analistas de la inteligencia discernían droga mexicana aumentada actividad cártel-relacionado en Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, Seattle y Yakima, el Lavado. — Las áreas que fueron controladas por otras redes étnicas.

El contrabando es todavía más visible en el Suroeste, que ha estado en casa a negociantes mexicanos para más de dos décadas. De Nogales, Ariz., recientemente, un periodista miró como contrabandistas a través de la frontera, en estaciones de cumbre, miraron por binocular en los movimientos de agentes norteamericanos de Patrulla de fronteras. El gunned de agentes sus camiones por la barrera que busca cruces ilegales.

Acerca del mediodía, agentes contiguos vieron una bala de 60 libras de gota de marihuana por encima de la cerca.

“Ese tipo de cosas sucede cada día aquí,” dijo Agente Michael A. Scioli, un portavoz para Customs and Border Protection.
Para los cárteles, “la marihuana es la cosecha” de rey, dijo Agente Especial Rafael Reyes, el jefe del México y Sección de América Central del Drug Enforcement Administration. Sostiene“coherentemente su comerciabilidad y la capacidad de ganancia.”

El trafico de drogas de la marihuana continúa virtualmente constante en Estados Unidos, aún como informes de inteligencia sugieren la disponibilidad declinante de heroína, de la cocaína y de otro endroga duramente eso requiere contrabando extenso operaciones.
Combinando contrabando con producción interior, los cárteles han sostenido el comercio de marihuana a pesar del ataque violento de acciones de aplicación en ambos lados de la frontera. De 2000 por 2007, las autoridades mexicanas detuvieron acerca de 90.000 traficantes de drogas, más de 400 hombres de hit y una docena de líderes de cártel, según un 2008 informe Congresional. Estados Unidos extraditó 95 mexicano nacional el año pasado. Las tomas en la primera mitad de 2008 dejaron atrás la tasa media de toma de 2002 a 2006.

Pero el precio ha sido alto. Las tensiones han aumentado entre los cárteles, que guerrea sobre rutas lucrativas de droga por pueblos fronterizos mexicanos como Juarez, Tijuana y Nogales, Sonora. Más de 6.000 personas, inclusive cientos de policías, fueron matadas por violencia relacionada con la droga en México en 2008. Los agentes de la Patrulla de fronteras de EEUU también informan enfrentamientos más violentos con negociantes.

Cuando el gobierno y las autoridades estadounidenses mexicanos han endurecido la frontera, cárteles de droga aumentan la producción justo del norte de ello para evitar recurrir a contrabando.

Muchas de las plantaciones más grandes de la marihuana son ocultadas en federal y jardines de estado, las autoridades federales dicen. La cuenta Sherman, un agente de Aplicación de Droga Administración basado en San Diego, dijo que las autoridades también encontraban un número creciente de granjas en Imperial y Condados de San Diego, un negociantes de área tradicionalmente evitados a causa de la presencia de guardias contiguos, varias agencias de policía y Acampan Pendleton, una base Marina.
“Vemos mucho más crece hacia abajo aquí ahora,” el Sr. Sherman dijo. “Eso es un cambio.”
===========
 
 Llame 2 de 2)

Los agentes de la aplicación de la droga desarraigaron acerca de 6,6 millones de cannabis plantas crecidas en su mayor parte por cárteles en 2007, la tercera parte más que las plantas destruyeron en 2006. En California, el productor doméstico más grande de marihuana de nación, las autoridades erradicaron un sin precedentes 2,9 millones de plantas por el fin de la cosecha de marihuana en diciembre.

Mas funcionarios de aplicación dicen que ellos no ven reducción discernible en el suministro doméstico. Los precios se han quedado relativamente constante aún como la potencia de marihuana aumentada para registrar niveles en 2007, según el Centro Nacional de la Inteligencia de Droga, una agencia de análisis de Ministerio de la justicia.

El Sr. Reyes también notó que negociantes mexicanos en Estados Unidos escogían marihuana hidropónica, que es más poderosa, provechoso y más fácil de ocultar porque puede ser crecido año alrededor con lámparas solares. (Una libra de marihuana de midgrade vende para acerca de $750 en Los Angeles, comparado con $2.500 a $6.000 para una libra de marihuana hidropónica). El notó un caso el año pasado en Florida en Las que cultivadores cubanos utilizaron varias casas en un solo desarrollo de tracto de Miami para suministrar marihuana hidropónica a negociantes mexicanos.

Kathyrn McCarthy, un abogado ayudante de EEUU en Detroit, dijo negociantes que mexicanos en Michigan comerciaban cocaína colombiana para la marihuana hidropónica de la Colombie-Britannique para vender en Estados Unidos. En el Estado de Washington, ahora el segundo productor doméstico más grande de marihuana, cárteles mexicanos crecen variedades mejoradas de marihuana al aire libre para competir con AC Brote y otras plantas interiores poderosas.

El año pasado, oficiales de narcóticos descubrieron 200.000 plantas de gran calidad de marihuana que crecen entre viñas arrendadas en el Valle de Yakima. El Noroeste ha sido tradicionalmente la provincia de redes hidropónicas asiáticas.

A pesar de plantar aumentado, los cárteles todavía dependen de contrabando. Nogales cercano, Ariz., el Sr. Scioli indicó varios túneles transfronterizos, uno de que extendió del traspatio de una casa, bajo la valla y en México 40 yardas lejos. Otra serie de túneles transfronterizos utilizó líneas existentes de alcantarilla o tubos de desagüe. Ellos estuvieron entre los nueve túneles de contrabando endroga a agentes de aplicación han descubierto allí desde que 2003.

A pesar de que las autoridades descubran más producción de marihuana Estados Unidos interior, el liderazgo de la mayor parte de los cárteles se queda en México y, para ahora, así que hace la mayor parte de la violencia. Todavía, fotografías recientes de México de las cabezas decapitadas de policías mexicanos juegan en las mentes de funcionarios de aplicación de la ley en este lado de la frontera, que está atento para signos de derrame.

La policía mexicana en Sonora “es atascada entre dos cárteles opuestos,” dijo Anthony J. Coulson, un agente federal de aplicación de droga. “Las policías son matadas como peones. Ellos son utilizados para mostrar cuánto poder y controlar los cárteles tienen.”
El Sr. Reyes, el agente especial, dijo, “La violencia sucede a causa de la presión que hemos exigido, pero no abastecemos de combustible ningún aumento ni la disminución en la marihuana.”

Nadie ve un fin rápido de la violencia en Nogales, Sonora.

El alguacil Tony Estrada de Condado de Santa Cruz dijo que había tanta violencia en el otro lado de la frontera que muchos policías y políticos mexicanos habían llegado a ser los refugiados virtuales en Nogales, Ariz.

“La violencia ha dejado un contingente grande de policía en este lado de la frontera,” el Alguacil Estrada dijo. “La matanza parará cuando alguien domina. Cuándo alguien toma control.”
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 02, 2009, 09:22:36 AM
México: ¿La diplomacia Entre los Cárteles de Sinaloa?
Stratfor Hoy » el 30 de enero de 2009 | 2218 GMT

Resumen

Los Tiempos de Los Angeles informaron enero. 29 eses asesinatos de droga-relacionó en el estado de Sinaloa, México, dejó caer de 120 en diciembre 2008 a 40 de enero. 1-29. Supuestamente, la disminución en la violencia ocurrida a consecuencia de una tregua entre cárteles rivales en Sinaloa. Las fuentes de Stratfor han confirmado que varios cárteles mexicanos tuvieron dos conversaciones servidas en la mesa, pero no son claro que una tregua fue alcanzada. Sin embargo, la disminución en la violencia sugiere que algún nivel de diplomacia ocurre.

Análisis

Los Tiempos de Los Angeles informaron enero. 29 esas matanzas de droga-relacionó en el estado de Sinaloa de México dejaron caer de 120 en diciembre 2008 a 40 dentro de los primeros 29 días de enero. La causa informada para esta gota en muertes de droga-relacionó fue una tregua entre cárteles rivales el Cártel de Sinaloa y la organización de Beltran Leyva. Las fuentes de Stratfor han confirmado que varios cárteles mexicanos tuvieron verdaderamente dos reuniones servidas en la mesa, pero eso (contradiciendo informes de prensa) ellos no alcanzaron ninguna tregua esparcida. La disminución en la violencia, sin embargo, sugiere que un nivel bajo de diplomacia puede estar sucediendo.

El informe de violencia disminuida en el estado de Sinaloa vino tres días después de que El Siglo de Durango, un periódico regional en el estado de Durango de México, informara que representantes de la Mayonesa de El y grupos de Sinaloa se sentaron en diciembre con representantes del Beltran Leyva, Arellano Felix y los grupos de Carillo Fuentes para discutir un alto de fuego, como el nivel inaudito de violencia de entierra-cártel en 2008 fue malo para el negocio. Los hermanos de Beltran Leyva fueron aliados una vez con Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman y su Cártel de Sinaloa, pero ellos operaron separadamente en 2008. Los dos grupos que luchan sobre rutas de traficar con drogas de droga en México occidental tuvieron como resultado luchas continuas que justificaron muchos de los 5.376 asesinatos relacionados con la droga en México en 2008. Por el 2008 de mayo, el ejército mexicano fue llamado en el estado de Sinaloa a ayudar a calmar la violencia.

Por todo el país, la violencia dejó caer de histórico alto en noviembre a niveles más normales en diciembre 2008 y subió otra vez en enero, pero ciertos estados vieron el número de muertes informadas disminuye en el mismo período de tiempo. Así como el número de matanzas de droga-relacionó dejó caer de diciembre 2008 al fin de enero en el estado de Sinaloa, en Juarez que ellos dejaron caer de 150 en diciembre 2008 a 80 durante los primeros 25 días de enero. Estas dos áreas, las situaciones críticas en la batalla del Cártel de Sinaloa con Beltran Leyva (en el estado de Sinaloa) y Carillo-Fuentes (en Juarez), puede ser visto como dos frentes primarias en conflictos del cártel de México. El hecho que la tasa de matanzas allí dejaron caer en enero (aunque las tasas nacionales estuvieran arriba) ofertas apoyan para los reclamos que los cárteles han alcanzado un alto de fuego limitado.

Los rumores acerca de cooperación de cártel han surgido ha disipado rápidamente y antes. Ocasionalmente varios grupos criminales de México han alcanzado aún treguas y alianzas anchas, aunque las más veces estos acuerdos rápidamente roto. La competición violenta sobre puertas de territorio y droga-traficando con drogas por EEUU-la frontera mexicana ofrece motivo fuerte seguir luchando antes que coopera. Incluso si los grupos alcanzaran acuerdo de algún tipo, un arreglo duradero es improbable.

Sin embargo, tal tregua tendría gran significado en la guerra del gobierno mexicana contra los cárteles. En 2008, varias facciones de cártel luchaban uno al otro y el ejército mexicano —Una situación que creó las guerras sangrientas de multi-frente en las que cárteles tuvieron que dividir sus recursos. Si los cárteles trabajan fuera un trato para reducir el luchar entre sí (incluso si el motivo sea de sólo mejorar el negocio), significaría que ellos podrían cambiar itinerario recursos que de otro modo serían utilizados para luchar uno al otro. Esto significa que ellos tendrían más dinero para utilizar para sobornar funcionarios, más recursos para centrarse en inteligencia-reunir operaciones y bajar los precios para los narcóticos que ellos negocian. Una tregua entre los cárteles haría una situación ya desafiante para el ejército mexicano complicó aún más, como el ejército hace ya no puede utilizar el “divide y conquista” táctica en su guerra contra los cárteles. Mientras una gota en la violencia general sería dada la bienvenida por el gobierno mexicano, una paz duradero de cártel llevaría sus propios riesgos para el gobierno.

Ultimamente, la cooperación también podría llegar a ser una estrategia para los cárteles para combatir el gobierno. Si los cárteles podrían mover de no luchar uno al otro a colaborar activamente a socavar el gobierno, ellos podrían colocar una amenaza grave al estado mexicano. Cuando mencionado arriba, muchos factores hacen este tipo de cooperación ancha bastante improbable — el honor entre ladrones es una cosa inconstante — Pero hay estímulos para la cooperación también.
Title: Stratfor: La Tercera Guerra
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 21, 2009, 06:23:09 AM
Por Fred Burton y Scott Stewart

México tiene bastante mucho siempre fue un áspero y lugar de caída. En los últimos años, sin embargo, el ambiente de la seguridad ha empeorado rápidamente, y las partes del país han llegado a ser increíblemente violentas. Es ahora común ver granadas militares de armas como fragmentación y asaltar rifles utilizados casi diario en ataques.

De hecho, justo la semana pasada nosotros notamos two separate strings of grenade attacks Dirigido contra policía en Durango y Michoacan indica. En el incidente de Michoacan, la policía en Uruapan y Lazaro Cardenas fue concentrada en por tres ataques de granada durante un período de 12 horas. Entonces en febrero. 17, un tiroteo mayor ocurrió justo a través de la frontera de Estados Unidos en Reynosa, Cuando las autoridades mexicanas procuraron prender varios hombres armados cabalgar visto en un vehículo. Los hombres huyeron a una cerca residencia y comprometieron a la policía que sigue con disparo de fusil, las granadas y granadas propulsadas por un cohete (RPGs). Después de que el incidente, en cuál cinco pistoleros de cártel fuera matado y varios pistoleros, las policías, los soldados y los civiles fueron heridos, las autoridades recuperaron un 60 mortero de Mm, cinco series de RPG y dos granadas de fragmentación.

No haga error, teniendo en cuenta las armas militares ahora ser utilizado en México y el número de muertes implicadas, el país está en medio de una guerra. De hecho, hay realmente tres guerras concurrentes ser emprendidas en México que implica el Mexican drug cartels. El primer es la batalla para ser emprendida entre los varios cárteles mexicanos de droga que buscan control sobre contrabando lucrativo pasillos, llamadas plazas. Uno tal campo de batalla es Ciudad Juarez, que proporciona acceso al Interestatal 10, Interestatal 20 e Interestatales 25 pasillos Estados Unidos interior. La segunda batalla es luchada entre los varios cárteles y las fuerzas mexicanas del gobierno que procuran interrumpir operaciones de contrabando, limitar violencia y traer a los miembros de cártel a la justicia.

Entonces hay una tercera guerra para ser emprendida en México, aunque a causa de su naturaleza es dominada un poco más. No consigue el mismo grado de atención internacional de medios engendrada por los tiroteos y la granada corrientes y ataques de RPG. Sin embargo, es no menos verdadero, y en muchos sentidos es más peligroso a civiles inocentes (así como turistas y viajeros de negocios extranjeros) que las batallas campales entre los cárteles y el gobierno mexicano. Esta tercera guerra es la guerra para ser emprendida en la población mexicana por criminales que pueden o no pueden ser implicado con los cárteles. A diferencia de las otras batallas, donde miembros de cártel o fuerzas de gobierno son los objetivos y los civiles primarios sólo son matados como daño colateral, en este frente de batalla, los civiles son directamente en los retículos.

La Frente Criminal

Hay muchas formas y los tamaño diferentes de pandillas criminales en México. Mientras muchos de ellos están en alguna manera relacionada a los cárteles de la droga, otros tienen varios tipos de aplicación de la ley de conexiones — Verdaderamente, algunos grupos criminales son compuestos de policías activas y jubiladas. Estos varios tipos de pandillas criminales concentran en civiles en varias maneras, incluyendo, el robo, el robo con fractura, asaltar en automóvil, la extorsión, el fraude y falsificando. Pero de todos los crímenes cometidos por estas pandillas, quizás el que crea el daño más esparcido, psicológico y emocional rapta, que también es uno de los más underreported crímenes. No hay figura exacta para el número de secuestros que ocurre en México cada año. Todos los datos con respecto al secuestro son basados en la estadística parcial de crimen y cuentas anecdóticas y, al fin, puede producir sólo estimaciones de mejor-adivinación. A pesar de esta falta de datos duros, sin embargo, hay duda pequeña — basado aún en el fin bajo de estas estimaciones — Que México ha llegado a ser la capital de secuestro del mundo.

Uno de las cosas difíciles acerca de estudiar el secuestro en México es que el crimen no sólo es esparcido, afectando casi cada rincón del país, pero también es ejecutado por una gran variedad de actores que poseen niveles que varían del profesionalismo — Y motivos muy diferentes. En un fin del espectro son el alto-fin que rapta las pandillas que secuestra a individuos de red de valor alta y demanda rescates en el millones de dólares. Tales grupos emplean los equipos de operativo que lleva a cabo tareas especializada como reunir la inteligencia, realizando vigilancia, arrebatando el objetivo, negociando con la familia de la víctima y estableciendo y para proteger los pisos francos.

En el otro fin del espectro son las pandillas que vagan las calles y raptan al azar objetivos de oportunidad. Estas pandillas son generalmente menos profesionales que las pandillas alto-finales y a menudo tendrá a una víctima para sólo un tiempo corto. En muchos casos, estos grupos tienen a la víctima justo utilizar lo suficiente tarjeta de ATM de la víctima para desaguar su cuenta corriente bancaria, o para recibir un pequeño rescate de quizás cientos de o de unos pocos mil dólares de la familia. Este tipo del secuestro oportunista a menudo es referido a como un “express kidnapping”. Exprese a veces raptando víctimas son contenidas el tronco de un coche durante su prueba dura, que puede durar a veces por días si la víctima tiene una cantidad grande en una cuenta corriente bancaria y un pequeño límite diario de retirada de ATM. Otros tiempos, si una pandilla de secuestro de expreso descubre que ha asido un objetivo de alto-valor por casualidad, la pandilla tendrá a la víctima más larga y demandará un rescate mucho más más alto. Ocasionalmente, éstos expresan raptando los grupos aún le “venderán” a una víctima de alto-valor a una más pandilla del secuestro del profesional.

Entre estos extremos hay una gran variedad de los grupos que se caen en algún lugar en el centro. Estos son los grupos que quizás concentren en un vicepresidente o el director de sucursal bancarios antes que el director general del banco, o eso quizás rapten al propietario de un restaurante u otro pequeña empresa antes que un industrial rico. La presencia de un espectro tan ancho del secuestro los grupos aseguran que casi ningún segmento de la población sea inmune de la amenaza de secuestro. En los últimos años, la magnitud completa de la amenaza en México y el temor que lo engendra ha llevado a un crimen llamado virtual kidnapping. En un secuestro virtual, la víctima no es raptada realmente. En vez de eso, los criminales procuran convencer la familia de un objetivo que un secuestro ha ocurrido, y entonces amenazas de uso y presión psicológica forzar la familia a pagar un rescate rápido. Aunque el secuestro virtual haya sido alrededor durante varios años, las familias involuntarias continúan caerse para la estafa, que es una fuente de dinero abundante a bajo tipo de interés. Algunos secuestros virtuales han sido realizados aún por criminales que utilizan teléfonos las prisiones interiores.

Cuando notado arriba, los motivos para raptar varía. Muchos de los secuestros que ocurren en México no son realizados para el rescate. A menudo los cárteles de droga raptarán a miembros de pandillas rivales o government officials Para atormentar y ejecutarlos. Este tormento es realizado para extraer información, intimide a rivales y, aparentemente a veces, para tener justo una diversión pequeña. Los cuerpos de tales víctimas son encontrados con frecuencia beheaded O de otro modo mutilado. Otros tiempos, pistoleros de cártel raptarán a narcotraficantes que son atrasados en pagos o que se niega a pagar el “impuesto” requirió a operar en el área del cártel de control.

Por supuesto, pistoleros de cártel no raptan sólo sus rivales ni policías. Cuando las guerras de cártel han calentado, y cuando rentas de droga han dejado caer debido a interferencia de cárteles rivales o el gobierno, muchos cárteles han recurrido al secuestro para el rescate a suplementar su flujo de caja. Quizás el grupo más extensamente conocido que entra en esto es el Arellano Felix Organization (AFO), También conocido como el Cártel de Tijuana. El AFO ha sido reducido a una sombra de su ser anterior, sus operaciones de contrabando dramáticamente impactado por los esfuerzos de EEUU y gobiernos mexicanos, así como por ataques de otros cárteles y de una lucha por el poder interna. A causa de una disminución escarpada en contrabando rentas, el grupo ha girado al secuestro y la extorsión para levantar los fondos necesarios para mantenerse vivo y para volver a la prominencia como una organización de contrabando.

En la Línea de tiro

Hay muy poco oportunidad que el gobierno mexicano podrá establecer integridad en sus agencias de aplicación de la ley, o traer orden público a porciones grandes del país, el tiempo pronto. La corrupción y la incapacidad oficiales son endémicas en México, que significa que ciudadanos mexicanos y extranjeros visitantes tendrán que encarar la amenaza del secuestro para el futuro previsible. Creemos que para civiles y extranjeros visitantes, la amenaza del secuestro excede la amenaza de ser golpeado por una bala perdida de un tiroteo de cártel. Verdaderamente, las cosas empeoran tan mal eso aún professional kidnapping negotiators, Una vez que visto como la llave a un pago garantizado, ahora son raptadas a sí mismo. En una torsión aún más increíble de ironía, el anti secuestro las autoridades son secuestradas y son ejecutadas.

Este ambiente — y el lo concierne ha chispeado — Ha proporcionado oportunidades financieras inmensas para la industria privada de la seguridad en México. Las ventas blindadas del coche han atravesado el techo, como tiene el número de guardias uniformados y personal ejecutivo de protección. De hecho, la demanda para el personal es tan aguda que esas compañías de la seguridad trepan para encontrar a candidatos. Tal camino difícil presenta a un anfitrión de problemas obvios, recorriendo de la falta de requisitos al vetting insuficiente. Los servicios además pasados de moda de la seguridad, nuevas compañías de la seguridad-tecnología también sacan partido del ambiente de temor, pero de rastrear aún de alta tecnología dispositivos pueden tener significant drawbacks and shortcomings.

Para muchas personas, armored cars y guardaespaldas armados pueden proporcionar un sentido falso de la seguridad, y la tecnología puede llegar a ser un mortal crutch that promotes complacency Y aumenta realmente la vulnerabilidad. Las medidas de seguridad físicas no son suficiente. La presencia de guardaespaldas armados — o guardias armados combinaron con vehículos blindados — No proporcione la seguridad absoluta. Esto es especialmente verdad en México, donde equipos grandes de pistoleros realizan regularmente crímenes que utilizan artillería militar. Francamente, hay muy pocos detalles ejecutivos de protección en el mundo que tiene la instrucción y el armamento para resistir a un asalto por docenas de atacadores armados con rifles de asalto y RPGs. Los guardas de seguridad privados son agobiados con frecuencia por criminales mexicanos y o matados o forzado a huir para su propia seguridad. Cuando notamos en el 2008 de mayo después del asesinato de Edgar Millan Gomez, actuando cabeza de la Policía Federal mexicana y la alto-clasificación policía federal en México, medidas de seguridad físicas deben ser suplementadas por situational awareness, Countersurveillance e inteligencia protectora.

Los criminales buscan y explotan las vulnerabilidades. Sus oportunidades para el aumento de éxito mucho si ellos son permitidos realizar vigilancia en hace y es dados la oportunidad de valorar completamente el programa protector de la seguridad. Hemos visto varios casos en México en El que los criminales escogieron aún atacar a pesar de medidas de seguridad. En tales casos, los criminales atacan con recursos adecuados para vencer la seguridad existente. Por ejemplo, si hay agentes protectores, los atacadores planearán neutralizarlos primero. Si hay un vehículo blindado, ellos encontrarán que maneras de derrotar el blindaje o asir el objetivo cuando él o ella están fuera del vehículo. A causa de esto, los criminales no deben ser permitidos realizar vigilancia en hace.

Como muchos crímenes, secuestro es un proceso. Hay ciertos pasos que debe ser tomado para realizar un secuestro y ciertos tiempos durante el proceso cuando esos ejecutarlo es vulnerable al descubrimiento. Mientras estos pasos pueden ser condensados y pueden ser logrados bastante rápidamente en un anuncio éste expresa raptando, ellos sin embargo son seguidos. De hecho, a causa de los pasos particulares implicados en realizar un secuestro, el proceso no está a diferencia de que siguió para ejecutar un terrorist attack. Los pasos comunes son selecciones de objetivo, la planificación, el despliegue, el ataque, el escape y la explotación.

Como los perpetradores de un ataque terrorista, esos realizar que un secuestro es la mayoría del vulnerable to detection cuándo ellos realizan vigilancia — Antes ellos están listos para desplegar y realizar su ataque. Cuando hemos notado varias veces en por delante de analiza, uno del secrets of countersurveillance Es que la mayoría de los criminales no son muy buenas en realizar vigilancia. La razón primaria que ellos tienen éxito es que nadie los busca.

Por supuesto, los secuestradores son también muy obvios una vez ellos lanzan su ataque, tiran sus armas y quizás comienzan aún a disparar. Por esta vez, sin embargo, quizás sea muy bien escapar demasiado tarde su ataque. Ellos habrán seleccionado su sitio de ataque y empleado las fuerzas que ellos creen que ellos necesitan para completar la operación. Mientras los secuestradores podrían fastidiar su operación y el objetivo podría escapar ileso, simplemente no es práctico sujetar uno espera en esa posibilidad. Es claramente mejor marcar a los secuestradores tempranos y evitar su trampa antes es saltada y los fusiles salen.

Hemos visto muchos casos de people in Mexico with armed security being kidnapped, Y creemos que hacemos probable ve más casos de esto en los meses venideros. Esta tendencia es debida no sólo a la presencia de criminales sumamente armados y agresivos y la calidad baja de algún personal de la seguridad, pero también a personas que colocan su confianza únicamente en seguridad física reactiva. Ignorando el valor muy verdadero de medidas críticas y proactivas como conocimiento situacional, countersurveillance e inteligencia protectora pueden ser un error fatal
Title: Re: Mexico
Post by: Dog Mauricio on February 21, 2009, 07:59:55 AM

     Chequen esta forma de transportar la droga:

http://videos.eluniversal.com.mx/n_videos/showVideo.php?id=10844

Saludos
Mauricio