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Messages - Crafty_Dog

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101
Martial Arts Topics / Re: Law Enforcement issues and LE in action
« on: January 02, 2021, 04:42:46 PM »
For those not familiar with this legal doctrine:
https://www.nytimes.com/.../justices-rule-police-do-not...
Justices
Rule Police Do Not Have a Constitutional Duty to Protect Someone
By Linda Greenhouse
June 28, 2005

WASHINGTON, June 27 - The Supreme Court ruled on Monday that the police did not have a constitutional duty to protect a person from harm, even a woman who had obtained a court-issued protective order against a violent husband making an arrest mandatory for a violation.

The decision, with an opinion by Justice Antonin Scalia and dissents from Justices John Paul Stevens and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, overturned a ruling by a federal appeals court in Colorado. The appeals court had permitted a lawsuit to proceed against a Colorado town, Castle Rock, for the failure of the police to respond to a woman's pleas for help after her estranged husband violated a protective order by kidnapping their three young daughters, whom he eventually killed.

For hours on the night of June 22, 1999, Jessica Gonzales tried to get the Castle Rock police to find and arrest her estranged husband, Simon Gonzales, who was under a court order to stay 100 yards away from the house. He had taken the children, ages 7, 9 and 10, as they played outside, and he later called his wife to tell her that he had the girls at an amusement park in Denver.

Ms. Gonzales conveyed the information to the police, but they failed to act before Mr. Gonzales arrived at the police station hours later, firing a gun, with the bodies of the girls in the back of his truck. The police killed him at the scene.

The theory of the lawsuit Ms. Gonzales filed in federal district court in Denver was that Colorado law had given her an enforceable right to protection by instructing the police, on the court order, that "you shall arrest" or issue a warrant for the arrest of a violator. She argued that the order gave her a "property interest" within the meaning of the 14th Amendment's due process guarantee, which prohibits the deprivation of property without due process.

The district court and a panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit dismissed the suit, but the full appeals court reinstated it and the town appealed. The Supreme Court's precedents made the appellate ruling a challenging one for Ms. Gonzales and her lawyers to sustain.

Cooking: Daily inspiration, delicious recipes and other updates from Sam Sifton and NYT Cooking.
A 1989 decision, DeShaney v. Winnebago County, held that the failure by county social service workers to protect a young boy from a beating by his father did not breach any substantive constitutional duty. By framing her case as one of process rather than substance, Ms. Gonzales and her lawyers hoped to find a way around that precedent.

But the majority on Monday saw little difference between the earlier case and this one, Castle Rock v. Gonzales, No. 04-278. Ms. Gonzales did not have a "property interest" in enforcing the restraining order, Justice Scalia said, adding that "such a right would not, of course, resemble any traditional conception of property."

Although the protective order did mandate an arrest, or an arrest warrant, in so many words, Justice Scalia said, "a well-established tradition of police discretion has long coexisted with apparently mandatory arrest statutes."

But Justices Stevens and Ginsburg, in their dissenting opinion, said "it is clear that the elimination of police discretion was integral to Colorado and its fellow states' solution to the problem of underenforcement in domestic violence cases." Colorado was one of two dozen states that, in response to increased attention to the problem of domestic violence during the 1990's, made arrest mandatory for violating protective orders.

"The court fails to come to terms with the wave of domestic violence statutes that provides the crucial context for understanding Colorado's law," the dissenting justices said.

Organizations concerned with domestic violence had watched the case closely and expressed disappointment at the outcome. Fernando LaGuarda, counsel for the National Network to End Domestic Violence, said in a statement that Congress and the states should now act to give greater protection.
In another ruling on Monday, the court rebuked the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, in Cincinnati, for having reopened a death penalty appeal, on the basis of newly discovered evidence, after the ruling had become final.

The 5-to-4 decision, Bell v. Thompson, No. 04-514, came in response to an appeal by the State of Tennessee after the Sixth Circuit removed a convicted murderer, Gregory Thompson, from the state's death row.

After his conviction and the failure of his appeals in state court, Mr. Thompson, with new lawyers, had gone to federal district court seeking a writ of habeas corpus on the ground that his initial lawyers had been constitutionally inadequate. The new lawyers obtained a consultation with a psychologist, who diagnosed Mr. Thompson as schizophrenic.

But the psychologist's report was not included in the file of the habeas corpus petition in district court, which denied the petition. It was not until the Sixth Circuit and then the Supreme Court had also denied his petition, making the case final, that the Sixth Circuit reopened the case, finding that the report was crucial evidence that should have been considered.

In overturning that ruling in an opinion by Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, the majority said the appeals court had abused its discretion in an "extraordinary departure from standard appellate procedures." Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist and Justices Scalia, Clarence Thomas and Sandra Day O'Connor joined the opinion.

In a dissenting opinion, Justice Stephen G. Breyer said the majority had relied on rules to the exclusion of justice. Judges need a "degree of discretion, thereby providing oil for the rule-based gears," he said. Justices Stevens, Ginsburg and David H. Souter joined the dissent.

103
Martial Arts Topics / Massad Ayoob on Mobs and Self Defense
« on: January 01, 2021, 03:42:29 AM »

106
Martial Arts Topics / Officer slain in bar massacre
« on: December 30, 2020, 02:46:13 PM »
From a while back; a LEO friend comments on the risks  of friendly fire when getting up from the ground.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/report-slain-officer-tripped-california-bar-massacre-74793136

107
Martial Arts Topics / The Chaplinsky line of cases
« on: December 26, 2020, 01:46:43 PM »

https://mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/293/chaplinsky-v-new-hampshire

https://mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/270/r-a-v-v-st-paul

Is a fresh question presented if someone actually fights in response to fighting words? 

108
Martial Arts Topics / Sadler vs. Flash Elorde
« on: December 26, 2020, 09:38:37 AM »
second post

https://www.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR0-9QRvWh_XKIKCMArIRPATJWS3aGnmhe3phPYUvO1Hd2dPeWOucAFTVeE&v=Vyo4-ZEcyuk&feature=youtu.be

GM-- may I ask you to post the last two clips on the Assn forum on the Boxing thread?  TY.

Also these:

Filipino legend Flash Elorde

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVfDfTyiS2k

Not in English, but footage shows connection with FMA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEH74qR4yYE



Gabriel "Flash" Elorde Story | Balintawak Eskrima sa Boxing | Elorde Boxing Gym - YouTube

==========================

Pancho Villa (the Filipino, not the Mexican):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlkmMDdhCyI


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjyU_lMyQx4
Pancho Villa Story | Francisco Guilledo - YouTube

Again, not in English.

When Pancho Villa Knocked Out Jimmy Wilde for the World Flyweight Championship | June 18, 1923 - YouTube


109
Martial Arts Topics / Corbett
« on: December 26, 2020, 09:35:35 AM »

112
Martial Arts Topics / Re: Rambling Rumination: First Lessons
« on: December 17, 2020, 02:22:04 PM »
Oh. 

Duh.

 :-D

114
Martial Arts Topics / Re: Rambling Rumination: First Lessons
« on: December 17, 2020, 04:29:54 AM »
Feeling Joe Biden here.  Who is FS?

115
Martial Arts Topics / Rambling Rumination: First Lessons
« on: December 16, 2020, 02:23:59 PM »
Just using this as a place to work on a new Rambling Rumination until I have access to my own computer:


==========================

Woof All:


In a superficial way, I've been around firearms for a while now (since about 2004?) and have had some training with some instructors of note, but given that I lived in Los Angeles there were practical barriers to putting in the proper training.   The tendency has been that good lessons tended to gradually vaporize in the absence of proper follow up.

Today I began my firearms training with Sean O'Dowd.

Over the years I have had a number of "first lessons" with a variety of instructors of note and as I was driving home I found myself reflecting on just how influential first lessons with great teachers can be.

PUNONG GURO EDGAR SULITE

In 1989 at a Pekiti Tirsia camp in Tennessee Guro Inosanto introduced me to Punong Guro Edgar Sulite, who had just arrived from the Philippines, and suggested I train with him.

We met at my house in Hermosa Beach.   My first lesson with PG Edgar consisted of two parts.

Knowing of my path with the Dog Brothers (then in a very early stage of development) he read my way of looking things and so he put the Lameco handguard that he had designed on me.  For those not familiar with it, it is both very protective and allows for complete wrist mobility.  The sticks we used were sort of padded and the sparring called for hitting the hand only.

I had never experienced anything like it.   He had crisp, utterly non-telegraphic striking from stillness unlike anything I had ever experienced.  I was utterly dominated.  Despite the strong protective qualities of  the hand guard and the padding on the sticks, my hand was to be swollen for a couple of weeks after.

With that settled, the lesson moved on to beginning the striking patterns he called "Eskrima 1-12".  Later on, when I asked him why he did not call then "Lameco 1-12" he answered "Oh, everyone has these" but somehow the only other system I have seen that did was Kali Illustrisimo, a system of  major  influence on him, so when I teach them in DBMA (I teach only the first five) I name them Lameco 1-5.

For me what made them different was that though like the four PTK power strokes I had learned from Eric (the hourglass that formed tape one of the first Dog Brothers tape in 1993)  they were both vertical and horizontal instead of the diagonal with which most FMA systems begin, they taught going from the horizontal to the vertical with remarkable efficiency, and they integrated footwork (the Ilustrisimo Cross Step) from the very first strokes of the stick. 

Though he did not seem to be moving that fast, somehow I struggled to keep up.  I experienced that, unlike him, my feet were slower than my stick.  Over time I came to understand that this played a major role in how had so decisively handled . 

Those who have trained with me will recognize deep themes from my teaching about "the one for one relationship" between feet and weapon(s), the emphasis on the vertical and horizontal plane of motion and the articulation of the diagonal as a combination of the two, and the use of the Ilustrisimo Cross Step in both stick and empty hand fighting-- all these were present in my first  lesson.

CARLOS MACHADO  and BJJ:

Though we had no idea of what we were doing and though it was well before the UFC Revolution of 1993, from the days of the pre-Dog Brothers "After Midnight Group" at the Inosanto Academy (1986-88)  we allowed grappling.  Propelled by underground video, rumors of Gracie Jiu Jitsu had floated around for a few years, and under Yorinaga Nakamura Japanese Shootfighting was beginning to make an appearance.  Inosanto Academy friend Chris Haueter, who over the years has risen to 5th degree BB under Rigan Machado introduced me to the five Machado Brothers in the summer of 1990.

The classic BJJ teaching progression begins with countering the mount position, but my immediate problems were Salty Dog Arlan Sanford, whose strength greatly exceeded mine, grabbing me by the head and throwing me down and Top Dog Eric Knaus bowling me over with a flying roof block and fang choking me out of a head lock (kesa gatame) on the ground.

To be continued




116
Martial Arts Topics / Re: Rambling Rumination: That is the Mystery of it
« on: December 15, 2020, 07:17:52 PM »
TTT

117
Espanol Discussion / General Cienfuegos
« on: December 09, 2020, 07:00:41 AM »
The Curious Case of Mexican General Cienfuegos
The former defense minister is released in another loss for the drug war.

By Mary Anastasia O’Grady
Dec. 6, 2020 5:58 pm ET


Mexican Gen. Salvador Cienfuegos receives the Legion of Merit in West Point, N.Y., Nov. 16, 2018.
PHOTO: MSGT JOHN GORDINIER



At a West Point ceremony in November 2018, the U.S. Defense Department conferred the Legion of Merit on Mexico’s then-secretary of national defense, Gen. Salvador Cienfuegos. Less than two years later, on Oct. 15, the retired Mexican four-star was arrested in Los Angeles on drug-trafficking and money-laundering charges.

A grand jury in the Eastern District of New York had handed up an indictment of Gen. Cienfuegos on Aug. 14, 2019, for crimes allegedly committed between December 2015 and February 2017. The indictment remained sealed until his arrest.

On Oct. 16, requesting a “permanent order of detention,” Acting U.S. Attorney Seth D. DuCharme alleged before the New York court that “while holding public office in Mexico, the defendant used his official position to assist the H-2 Cartel, a notorious Mexican drug cartel, in exchange for bribes.”

U.S. prosecutors insist they had what they needed to convict Gen. Cienfuegos, who was an active member of the Mexican military during the six years (2012-18) he held the cabinet-level post in the government of President Enrique Peña Nieto. But on Nov. 17, Attorney General William Barr dropped the case. The general was released and on Nov. 18 returned to Mexico, where the government has said it will investigate the charges. The odds of that happening are pretty long.


Chalk up one more loss for the futile, half-century-old U.S. war on drugs. In this case, the circular logic out of Washington is that keeping Mexico as a U.S. partner in fighting transnational crime trumps actual crime fighting. The good news for the drug-war bureaucracy is that its jobs program is secure.


Gen. Cienfuegos is innocent until proven guilty, and the Drug Enforcement Administration’s case against him, using intercepted BlackBerry Messenger communications that he supposedly sent to the capos, has provoked skepticism. Some are asking why a high-ranking government official, well-versed in intelligence, would recklessly risk a prestigious career.

On the other hand, institutional corruption is a problem in Mexico, while the American legal system guarantees the general due process. To remove the case to Mexico under pressure from Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (a k a AMLO) reeks of cynicism on both sides of the border.

It is unclear if the DEA informed its counterparts—the Defense Department’s Northern Command, the Central Intelligence Agency, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the National Security Council and the director of national intelligence, to name a few—of the evidence against Gen. Cienfuegos and built consensus for his arrest.


The DEA may have sensed the risk of being overruled and decided it was easier to ask for forgiveness than permission. As one source close to diplomatic circles of both countries told me, “It’s hard to understand how the DEA would have gotten the green light to arrest him, and then the Justice Department would send him back to Mexico.”

Word around Washington is that some of the alphabet-soup bureaucracy was unhappy at being left out of the loop. But that was nothing compared with the outrage from Mexico’s military. While AMLO was initially blasé about a DEA bust of a former top official, he did not remain so when the army made its fury clear.

Mexico’s rules for the DEA inside the country require agents to share intelligence regularly with Mexican authorities. The Mexican military, it is said, felt humiliated and betrayed by what it saw as a violation of the spirit of engagement and cooperation between the two countries. At this AMLO sprang into action, sending a message, via his foreign minister, to the gringos that south of the border, trust had been broken. With extradition and Mexico’s willingness to allow DEA agents to remain in the country at risk, the general was set free.

The Pentagon may have played a role too. After two decades working to convince the Mexican armed forces to modernize the relationship between the two sides, there has been substantial progress. Joint field training exercises at U.S. Northern Command in Colorado, for example, demonstrate a shared sense of the importance of North American perimeter security. Was prosecuting the general worth losing all that?

AMLO has put the army at the center of many of his pet projects, from developing a new international airport to taking over management of the country’s seaports. Yet while it is also charged with combating the transnational crime ravaging Mexico, it has achieved very little. It would be nice to know why.

The Cienfuegos release was meant to salvage bilateral cooperation. But what sort of cooperation is it if Mexico’s priority is to bury this matter rather than get to the bottom of whether the general is guilty or was set up? The drug-war game of cops and robbers will return to the script but the case against Gen. Cienfuegos suggests a more serious problem is brewing.

118
Espanol Discussion / Re: Islamo-fascismo en Latino America
« on: December 05, 2020, 05:04:38 AM »
Guatemala's Terrorist Designation of Hizballah Explained
President's Office: "There has probably been some kind of undeclared presence but only as passage, like drugs, let's say."
by Todd Bensman
Special to IPT News
December 4, 2020

https://www.investigativeproject.org/8651/guatemala-terrorist-designation-of-hizballah

121
Martial Arts Topics / Re: Dog (Canine) Training
« on: November 15, 2020, 11:09:06 AM »
Got annoyed with how much he relies on treats for everything.  Clicked if off.

122
Martial Arts Topics / Re: Boxing Thread
« on: November 14, 2020, 05:17:08 PM »
 8-)

123
Martial Arts Topics / Akita Puppy Training
« on: November 14, 2020, 05:16:26 PM »
I did not find the reliance upon treats necessary, but I did pick up some ideas here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWZJKL4pv-w&fbclid=IwAR0Tg9bh6eb4_RRAuMOjp1foGCCe8w8lIVM53cS4wd0v9hHCsgkGywEMMCA

125
And alligators and sharks and anacondas and , , ,  :-D

127
Martial Arts Topics / Re: Boxing Thread
« on: November 10, 2020, 06:48:21 AM »
TY 8-)

128
Martial Arts Topics / Re: Boxing Thread
« on: November 08, 2020, 06:06:35 PM »
GM:

For some reason I cannot get into the Assn forum at this time.  May I ask you to post the following in the Boxing thread and the relevant Dracula thread?

Thank you,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uP-epyt8cHA&fbclid=IwAR3fErk4Ryg6Wlu26t66WDxon3RvF1cak8mb2mkTGkjVQcWL0Y7eSS1nyaA

129
Whoops!  I should  have mentioned that!   :oops: :lol:

Frankie McRae.

131
Thank you.

132
GM:

At the moment I cannot get into the DBMA Assn forum.  May I ask you to post the preceding on a relevant thread and to let the guys know I should be back online in the next day or so?

TY


133
Marc:
I would like to compliment you on your recent developments in Close Quarter Combatives:

First, there is the knife material you call "The Chupacabra".  I find it to be ingenious in its primal intensity and lethal efficiency-- just the sort of thing do when you have to go RIGHT NOW in conditions of maximal intensity.

This applies to civilians or to professionals in kit.

Second, there are the knives of your design.  I carry the larger version, the Akita, which is the  military version, on my battle belt.  I can give no greater compliment!

For civilians, the slightly smaller and distinctly flatter version, the Shiba, is probably the way to go.

Not only does the ingenious handle design, found on both knives, allow for ready access when the fight is already underway, it also makes for an unusually secure grip in high adrenal circumstances.  No fear of sliding down onto the blade when a thrust hits something hard, even when the handle is slippery from blood.

Third, there is your integration of gun and knife for when the gun goes click instead of bang.  Not only does your ingenious transition to blade allow for ready and rapid lethality, it also enables returning to the gun to bring it back into battery without having to resheath the knife back first. Not having to find the sheath (which probably entails taking your eyes off of adversaries) and insert the knife without stabbing yourself during a firefight because you can return the gun to battery without having to resheathe the knife can be a real life saver!

135
Martial Arts Topics / Re: Zapata's Howl
« on: October 01, 2020, 02:22:59 PM »
ttt

137
Martial Arts Topics / Mob goes after car that refused to get stopped
« on: September 25, 2020, 07:49:28 PM »
For those of you who have FB.

https://www.facebook.com/160328526481/videos/881510072255875

So, what do we do when someone reaches in the window with hostile intent? 

DRIVE ON is obviously the preferred option, but what if there are those we don't wish to run over or we are blocked somehow? e.g. as by the truck here?




140
Martial Arts Topics / In defense of Kyle Rittenhouse
« on: September 23, 2020, 08:13:31 PM »

141
September 23, 2020   View On Website
Open as PDF



    Washington’s New Economic Strategy in Latin America
Nearshoring is as much a geopolitical issue as an economic one.
By: Allison Fedirka

A few weeks ago, the head of the U.S. National Security Council – not a State Department official, as would normally be the protocol – introduced the Western Hemisphere Strategic Framework, Washington’s new economic strategy for its half of the world, while in Miami. Then, for the first time ever, Washington successfully lobbied the Inter-American Development Bank to take on a U.S. official as its head – a position typically reserved for non-U.S. and non-Brazilian members who have less voting power in the bank. Later still, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made history as the first secretary to visit Suriname and Guyana.

Developments such as these belie the ordinarily passive approach the U.S. takes to managing relations with its southern neighbors. Washington has long held the upper hand and so has rarely needed to tinker with a system that works in its favor. But as it debuts its new economic strategy for the region, it will resurrect memories for countries that have been hurt by these kinds of initiatives in the past. The U.S. may see new-found potential in its relationship with Latin America, but the same cannot necessarily be said for Latin America.

A National Security Issue

The increase in the United States’ commercial interest in Latin America owes largely to a shift in focus from military conflict in the Middle East to economic conflict with China (and, to a lesser extent, Russia).

The U.S.-China trade war has changed supply chain security from a purely economic issue to a national security issue. In short, China’s role as a global manufacturing hub – especially for medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, microchips and other electronics – is now considered a threat. Consequently, Washington has begun to consider new locations for U.S. companies whose factories are currently in China. With its geographic proximity, relatively cheap labor force and firmly established ties, Latin America is an obvious candidate.
 
(click to enlarge)

The potential relocation of factories is as much a geopolitical question as it is an economic one. Companies generally go where it makes the most economic sense, but when there are geopolitical interests at stake, it is up to the governments to create incentives and frameworks that compel other actors to produce the desired results.

Washington’s latest hemisphere-wide economic initiative, Back to the Americas, means to address mutual economic-security needs, most notably by relocating U.S. manufacturing companies to Latin America. The relocation would be supported by U.S. investments in infrastructure in host countries that would, in theory, drive economic growth. At the end of July, Mauricio Claver-Carone, then the White House senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs and now the IDB president, said that up to $50 billion in investments could enter the region through Back to the Americas through the participation of four U.S. government departments as well as the U.S. Agency for International Development, the U.S. Trade and Development Agency, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and the Export-Import Bank. It builds on the Growth in the Americas initiative, which launched in 2018 and expanded its scope in December 2019 to focus largely on using private sector investment in infrastructure projects to create new jobs and increase economic growth. A key component to achieving these goals is the reduction of regulatory, legal, procurement and market barriers to investment by host country governments.
 
(click to enlarge)

The timing is hardly coincidental: China has steadily enlarged its economic footprint in Latin America over the past two decades. Beijing used the region to help meet its demand for hydrocarbons, metals and food supplies. From 2000 to 2019, Chinese trade with the region grew from $12 billion to nearly $315 billion. It is currently the top trade partner of Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Peru and Argentina. (In every country except Argentina, China replaced the U.S.) According to the Inter-American Dialogue, Chinese state loans to the region exceeded $140 billion from 2005 to 2019, though the amounts have significantly dropped since 2015. China has also made substantial investments in mining and agriculture, power generation, utilities and infrastructure, though again the pace has slowed over the past three years.

The Back to the Americas initiative aims to preserve the U.S. foothold in the region and keep foreign competition at bay. The recently announced Western Hemisphere Strategic Framework, however, rests on five pillars: securing the homeland, advancing economic growth, promoting democracy and the rule of law, countering foreign influence and strengthening alliances with like-minded partners. Relocating manufacturing to the Americas not only takes the supply chain out of China’s hands but also helps diversify it. The finished products made for U.S. consumption may also allow the U.S. to regain some of the space it has lost to China in Latin America. If Washington can encourage Latin American countries to create environments conducive to U.S. interests by giving them money, there may be less need for Chinese financing and more transparency with financial activities, and these countries can more easily access funding from northern financial institutions.

What Washington Has to Offer

But U.S. ambitions will face several obstacles. Local governments may find themselves in the uncomfortable scenario of having to choose between Beijing or Washington, including over how they adopt 5G technologies. Many will seek a balance that will allow them to reap the benefits of siding with one without alienating the other.

Unlike China, the U.S. doesn’t have state-owned enterprises that can do its bidding, or seemingly endless discretionary spending for overseas projects. There will be some funding by the U.S. government along with additional money from places like the IDB, which contributes about $12 billion in infrastructure funding annually, but private enterprise will play a greater role. The U.S. government can incentivize companies, but it can’t force them to participate in its plans. Companies could simply decide the market isn’t right for them.

More importantly, the U.S. strategy requires buy-in from participating countries. This is why it contains provisions that may meet the region’s needs. By targeting infrastructure projects, the U.S. is effectively addressing the long-standing economic development challenge of huge infrastructure investment gaps faced by every country in the region. A 2019 study by the IDB estimated that the region’s infrastructure investment gap is the equivalent of 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (roughly $150 billion) per year. U.S. investments alone can’t solve these problems, but neither can the host countries without large outside capital injections, which U.S. companies can offer.

Infrastructure development also addresses the region’s interest in improving its overall trade competitiveness. Poor transportation and logistics facilities play a major role in raising the price of domestically produced goods to the point that they struggle to compete in global markets.
 
(click to enlarge)

Furthermore, the focus on manufacturing aims to diversify the region’s economic activity away from natural resource extraction. Reducing dependence on commodities would inoculate local economies to price shocks and potentially lead to higher-value goods being produced.

Not every Latin American country has the same relationship with the U.S., of course, and those most likely to participate will be countries that have traditionally allied with the U.S. or whose economies are too integrated with the U.S. not to participate. Panama and Costa Rica, for example, are already working to address domestic regulatory measures to meet U.S. requirements, while Ecuador admitted it has an economic need to enact reforms that will facilitate economic cooperation with the U.S.

The poster child for what this initiative could look like in practice is Colombia, which is predisposed to keep a close relationship with the U.S. and has already thrown its support behind the project. Colombia’s ambassador to the U.S. openly acknowledged that Bogota wants to benefit from U.S. nearshoring efforts and welcomes it as an opportunity to reindustrialize. In some ways, it has been preparing all year. In February, the government launched a new national logistics policy that focuses on reducing logistics costs by simplifying bureaucratic procedures and improving road and fluvial transportation infrastructure. The objective of the plan is to incentivize foreign direct investment, boost exports and create economic opportunities. This was followed in the summer by new tax breaks and other measures to attract up to $11.5 billion in non-hydrocarbon foreign direct investment by 2022. In direct response to Back to the Americas, ProColombia has conducted a targeted campaign to identify companies interested in moving to Colombia from China.

Concerns

The U.S. has a long and complicated history with Latin America when it comes to cooperation, particularly when geopolitical agendas are so closely tied to economic ones. There is a camp that looks at increased U.S. interest in the region with skepticism. Though they share a desire to see value-added goods hold a greater share of exports, they believe the U.S. manufacturing initiative runs the risk of producing low-value-added exports by exploiting local workforces. There is also concern that increased trade with the U.S. could render the region a depository for U.S. goods. Similar initiatives in the past have damaged domestic industries in the region, prompting governments to pursue costly import substitution schemes and to impose strict regulatory environments to prop up local industry and employment.

The other major issue is that there are strings attached. The U.S. government and companies alike will be looking for certain security and political guarantees from their partners. Ultimately, the ability to offer attractive investment environments to U.S. investors will fall to the Latin American governments themselves. Past instances where countries in the region have carried out reforms to participate in U.S.-supported economic programs ended poorly. For example, President John F. Kennedy’s Alliance for Progress purported to enhance economic cooperation to improve Latin America’s per capita GDP, establish democratic governments, achieve price stability, enact land reform and improve other economic and social planning. Washington spent $1.4 billion annually from 1962 to 1967 on this program but failed to produce the desired economic development. Similarly, the Washington Consensus was introduced to the region to help solve the debt crisis and boost growth. It required countries to implement northern-formulated, structural economic reforms that clashed with many of the region’s political and social systems. This led to its failure and rejection, most notably in Argentina.

Hence why this is as much a geopolitical initiative as an economic one. The economic question can be answered only after there are clear sectors, projects and numbers to work with. The current economic environment favors the U.S., but complicated pasts are hard to overlook. All governments will also have to evaluate participation in these plans against national needs. The fact that the U.S. has renewed interest in the region has geopolitical significance considering the U.S. has managed to muscle through its agenda but not with strong results.   

143
Espanol Discussion / PEMEX losses deepen Mexico's financial woes
« on: September 02, 2020, 10:09:48 AM »
Pemex’s Losses Deepen Mexico’s Financial Woes
3 MINS READ
Aug 31, 2020 | 19:41 GMT

HIGHLIGHTS

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's failure to strengthen Pemex's finances and shore up domestic oil production will exacerbate Mexico's public finance woes from COVID-19.  On Aug. 24, Mexico's state-owned energy giant Pemex reported its lowest level of monthly crude oil production since 1979, with the company's July output totaling only 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) -- marking a 0.6 percent decline from June and a 4.5 percent decline from July 2019. Pemex was already struggling before the current COVID-19 crisis, seeing record losses during 2019 and the first half of 2020. Lopez Obrador's attempts to strengthen Pemex's bottom line and increase domestic oil production, however, will continue to fail without new private investment to help increase long-term production, as well as a business plan that forces Pemex to focus on the most profitable areas....

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's failure to strengthen Pemex's finances and shore up domestic oil production will exacerbate Mexico's public finance woes from COVID-19.  On Aug. 24, Mexico's state-owned energy giant Pemex reported its lowest level of monthly crude oil production since 1979, with the company's July output totaling only 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) — marking a 0.6 percent decline from June and a 4.5 percent decline from July 2019. Pemex was already struggling before the current COVID-19 crisis, seeing record losses during 2019 and the first half of 2020.


Lopez Obrador's attempts to strengthen Pemex's bottom line and increase domestic oil production will continue to fail without new private investment to help increase long-term production, as well as a business plan that forces Pemex to focus on the most profitable areas.

Mexico's current oil fields in the Gulf, such as Cantarell and Ku-Maloob-Zaap, are nearing the end of their productive life. Any substantive increase in production thus needs to come from new developments in either deep-water fields or the unconventional fields in northeastern Mexico, which Pemex does not have the resources or expertise to develop alone.

Other national oil companies, such as Brazil's Petrobras or Colombia's Ecopetrol, have engaged in strategies to get rid of unproductive assets and focus on their resources on most productive areas. These strategies have helped prevent both Petrobras and Ecopetrol's credit rating from being downgraded in recent years. Pemex's debt, meanwhile, was downgraded this year and last.

Lopez Obrador has relied on Pemex's revenue and resources to boost government spending, which has spread the company's already scarce resources thin by forcing its involvement in unprofitable activities. This has included placing Pemex in charge of building a new refinery in southeast Mexico and modernizing various other refineries.

Lopez Obrador's administration has also barred Pemex from partnering with private firms on long-term exploration projects, further accelerating the deterioration of the company's finances and profitability prospects.

Pemex will increasingly become a drag on Mexico's already stressed public finances, which will impede Lopez Obrador's ability to mitigate the fallout from COVID-19 ahead of 2021 midterm elections by robbing his government of a key revenue source.
Amid the fallout from the pandemic, Lopez Obrador is facing mounting pressure to revive the Mexican economy, which was in a recession even before the onset of the global health crisis. But this time, he Mexican government won't be able to rely on Pemex to shore up spending, especially in the absence of any tax reform that would enable the company to diversify revenues, and may be forced to redirect its scarce resources to keep Pemex afloat.

Pemex has long been a key financing source for the Mexican government, which is one of the main causes of the company's chronic underinvestment. Pemex's revenues currently make up around 10 percent of the federal government's total revenues.
The Lopez Obrador administration has provided Pemex with debt relief and even some subsidies in the hopes of giving the oil company some room to make more productive investments. But given the magnitude of Pemex's cashflow erosion, that money has instead been used to cover the company's current expenditures.

In response to the COVID-19 crisis, Lopez Obrador's administration has also not passed any meaningful fiscal stimulus packages, and has instead continued to fund its pet infrastructure projects that are already underway, including the $8 billion Dos Bocas refinery.

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Virtual Class will meet as usual at 12:00 CA time this Sunday.

This week's subject is "Clubs, Bats, and Related Items for Dealing With a Cranky Crowd of Scurrilous Scum"

Contact Ashley Sage for sign up info.

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/live-online-class-with-crafty-tickets-118708300723

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Martial Arts Topics / The Blake Case
« on: August 28, 2020, 09:31:55 AM »
From May 2020

https://archive.is/YcYRU

Were the officers on the scene when he was shot aware of this?

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