Author Topic: Mexico-US matters  (Read 279657 times)


Crafty_Dog

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Re: Mexico-US matters
« Reply #751 on: May 06, 2019, 10:01:36 AM »
Jalisco Governor Alfaro will head up judicial corruption fight.
López Obrador threatens to identify judges who free crime suspects
President backs governors' initiative to go on the offensive against corruption in the judicial branch
Friday, May 3, 2019

    158shares

President López Obrador has threatened to go after judges who regularly free suspected criminals who go on to commit new crimes.

It would be a strategy similar to the one the president has adopted with respect to gas stations — identifying at his Monday press conference those that sell the most expensive fuel.

“We’re going to be respectful of the judicial branch, but we will also be vigilant; if there are judges that are arbitrarily freeing crime suspects . . . that’s over now. There will now be a who’s who of the justice system.”

Reminding his audience that one of the central aims of his administration is to stifle corruption, he said judges will now have to act within the bounds of the law.

As an example of what can go wrong, the president recounted the case of a suspected criminal who was freed and then proceeded to murder the police officer who had arrested him.

“. . . The executive branch must intervene. This cannot be allowed to keep happening.”

On Tuesday, the president and the National Conference of Governors agreed to conduct an offensive against corruption in the judicial branch.

Jalisco Governor Enrique Alfaro will head up an initiative to develop a methodology to review cases of judicial corruption that can then be applied in every state.

He said his state is emblematic of the problem, claiming that for years the judicial branch has been hijacked  by branches of government and individuals.

The judicial branch has been controlled, it has had its masters and there has been ongoing manipulation of decisions, Alfaro said, “and that history has come to an end.”

Meanwhile, in an interview with the newspaper Milenio, constitutional lawyer Alberto Woolrich suggested that the president’s threat to identify suspect judges should not be seen as a threat against the judicial branch, but as a response to the public’s demand to purge institutions of corruption.

“People are fed up with so much corruption. I don’t see this as a threat. Instead, it’s a measure to curb corruption among judges.”

The lawyer highlighted the case of Raúl Salinas de Gortari, brother of former president Carlos Salinas de Gortari, who was arrested for money laundering but later freed by the Supreme Court.

“How can you put faith in the Supreme Court, in these robed lawyers that supposedly respect the constitution . . .”

The lawyer added that corrupt judges directly undermine Mexico’s sovereignty, saying that though he did not fully agree agree with the president’s ideals, the situation requires immediate action. People throughout the country are fed up with situation, he said.




DougMacG

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Re: Mexico-US matters
« Reply #755 on: May 09, 2019, 11:22:38 AM »
"López Obrador threatens to identify judges who free crime suspects"

Good to see President AMLO is serious about fighting corruption, the only good part of his agenda.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Mexico-US matters
« Reply #756 on: May 09, 2019, 01:05:20 PM »
Seriously tough to be both honest and alive in a world of "Plata o plomo" (Silver or lead).




Crafty_Dog

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Sundry
« Reply #760 on: May 17, 2019, 05:53:29 PM »








DougMacG

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Trumps slaps 5% tariff on Mexico until border flood ends
« Reply #768 on: May 31, 2019, 07:18:32 AM »
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-trump/trump-vows-rapid-high-tariffs-on-mexico-unless-illegal-immigration-ends-idUSKCN1T01GJ
------------------

But, but, but, as Larry Elder might say mocking liberals, I though Trump was going to have Mexico pay for the wall.

Check.

ccp

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the real tragedy is this should be unnecessary
« Reply #769 on: May 31, 2019, 07:41:06 AM »
all we would have to do is enforce immigration law
close some loopholes and this whole problem would go away
but no, we have stinking self serving shitheads for politicians

Crafty_Dog

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Stratfor on the Trump Tariffs on Mexico
« Reply #770 on: May 31, 2019, 07:46:21 PM »
 

A Tariff Threat Against Mexico Could Be Trump's Riskiest Yet

On May 30, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 5 percent tariff on all goods from Mexico starting June 10 unless the country takes "substantial" steps to stem the flow of migrants crossing the U.S. border. According to Trump's statement, that tariff would continue to rise by 5 percentage points on the first day of each following month until eventually capping off at 25 percent in October, where it would remain until Washington deems enough has been done to counter northbound migration flows from Central America.

The Big Picture
________________________________________
U.S. President Donald Trump has made immigration a clear priority as he gears up for his re-election in 2020. After shutting down the government in December in a bid to fund his U.S.-Mexico border wall, Trump is now threatening an unprecedented tariff hike on Mexican imports in the hopes of getting Mexico City to stem the increasing number of Central American migrants showing up at Washington's southern doorstep. However, combined with the president's ongoing disputes with other key U.S. trade partners, a full-blown trade war with Mexico could be the final straw that pushes the United States into a recession.
________________________________________
The U.S. and the Balance of PowerThe Importance of MexicoNorth America Unrivaled

What's the likelihood Trump will follow through? 

Other than fewer migrants flowing through, it remains unclear what other criteria the United States would be use to judge Mexico. Following Trump's announcement, a White House official only noted that the criteria would be "ad hoc." Given this ambiguity, it's possible that Trump could back down from the full threat — using it instead as leverage to reach a modest agreement with Mexico that he could then declare as a victory. On the other hand, the president has also shown that he is willing to tolerate significant collateral damage in order to implement his immigration policy, as evidenced by the 35-day government shutdown earlier this year. Trump made a similar threat in April, in which he gave Mexico one year to halt migration flows before imposing tariffs on its exports.

But now, he's significantly turned up the heat with a new June 10 deadline — a nearly impossible timeline for Mexico to fully implement any kind of plan. There are rumors Trump made the threat in haste after hearing a report about an increase in migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. Thus, it is possible that Trump is willing to make a quick withdrawal from the threat if Mexico can make modest concessions.

What's behind Trump's threat?

Securing the U.S.-Mexico border was a key pillar of Trump's 2016 campaign platform that ultimately ushered him to victory. But over the past two years, migrant crossings into the United States — largely from Central America — have risen to decade-high levels. In April alone, Customs and Border Protection officers arrested nearly 100,000 migrants crossing illegally, most of whom had families requesting asylum.

In addition to threatening Trump's campaign promise of a security crackdown on the southern border, this sudden influx of migrants has also strained the U.S. border security forces' ability to process and hold people awaiting removal or a hearing on asylum. And while the Mexican army and police forces are involved in operations to detain or deter migrant flows, the number of crossing points and corrupt security officers have hindered Mexico's ability to meaningfully stem the movement of people.

Does Trump have the power to impose such tariffs?

The short answer is possibly, though it'd be an unprecedented move and could be challenged by the courts. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) gives the U.S. President significant power to regulate aspects of global commerce in the event of a national emergency that is either wholly or partially international. And the White House has already declared a national emergency on its border with Mexico in an effort to redistribute the $6.7 billion in government funds towards Trump's wall and border security.

However, the IEEPA does not explicitly authorize the president to implement tariffs as a way to deal with a national emergency. Instead, it affords the power to "regulate" certain commercial activities with the country in question through foreign exchange transactions or the transfer of payments between banking institutions. The IEEPA has also never been used to implement tariffs against another country. In fact, the law was initially passed in 1977 as a way to limit some of the powers Congress previously delegated to the president in times of emergency.

Combined with Trump's ongoing disputes with other key U.S. trade partners, a full-blown trade war with Mexico could be the final straw that pushes the United States into a recession.

It can certainly be argued that using the IEEPA to implement tariffs is an expansive interpretation of the law. However, the U.S. judicial system does tend to defer to the president on issues of national security. Congress also still has the power to reverse national emergencies and block tariffs, though doing so would require a joint resolution signed into law, something that would demand significant bipartisan backing. And despite Trump's previous trade wars irking many members of his party, Republicans have yet to overturn a single tariff Trump has implemented. The extent to which the federal law can be used to implement tariffs has not been determined by U.S. federal courts, and would thus set an important precedent for U.S. foreign policy.

How will this affect USMCA approval?

Trump's tariff threats certainly risk sticking a pin in the process to approve the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on both sides. Mexico had submitted the agreement to its legislature for ratification on May 30. But Trump's threat — announced just hours later — now risks making the USMCA a sideshow. Even if President Trump fully removed the North American Free Trade Agreement to allow Mexico and the United States to instead deal on World Trade Organization terms, the average tariff that Mexican exporters would face would be less than five percent — which is where Trump's threatened move starts. And the full 25 percent tariff would be more than seven times higher.

Such a sizable tax hike would likely force Mexico City to consider delaying a full passing of USMCA until after this particular issue is resolved, just as it did earlier this year when it stalled the process until the United States removed steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexican products. Meanwhile, in Washington, the Senate had been blocking the agreement over the steel and aluminum tariffs as well, and will likely try to do the same should Trump follow through on imposing these new tariffs. That said, it's also possible Trump could use the threat of a trade war with Mexico as leverage against Congress to get USMCA approved.

How might Mexico respond to the threat?

Countries typically retaliate when a trade partner tacks on higher tariffs, hence the name "trade war." But for Mexico, a full retaliation will be difficult due to its sputtering economy, which has not seen positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for three of the last four quarters. Trump's announcement, unsurprisingly, has already jarred global markets, with the Mexican peso falling 3 percent. The tariffs risk pushing Mexico into an even deeper recession. And if Mexico responds by upping its own tariffs on U.S. goods, that would only make matters worse — limiting the extent to which Mexico is willing (or able) to match the United States tit-for-tat in a potential trade war.

Instead, Mexico could try a more targeted approach to minimize the blowback on its economy, such as imposing taxes on only agricultural goods. Still, the safest option may indeed be to appease Trump in some capacity and allow him to declare a victory of some sort in exchange for no tariffs at all. And indeed, Mexico appears to already be taking such a route, with President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador sending an emergency delegation to Washington on May 31.

What would be the economic toll for both countries?

The extent to which President Trump's threats hit the U.S. economy would depend on the level of Mexican retaliation, and whether or not the tariffs end up reaching the 25 percent cap in October. Compared with the other global tariff disputes Trump has waged so far, a trade war between the United States and Mexico would undoubtedly be the most damaging one yet. Roughly two-thirds of U.S. imports from Mexico are through intracompany trade, meaning goods can cross the border several times before becoming a finished product. This highlights the high degree of economic interconnectivity between the two countries.

In the worst-case scenario, both Mexico and the United States could both slap each other with 25 percent tariffs. Should such tariffs last for months, U.S. economic growth in the short-term could be hit by more than 1 percent of GDP and Mexico's could go well beyond 10 percent. But this extreme case is highly unlikely because it would almost certainly be met with backlash in Washington. Even a modest scenario of just 5 percent tariffs with comparable retaliation from Mexico could result in a roughly .25 percent drop in U.S. GDP, and an up to 5 percent drop in Mexico's GDP.

What are the implications for Trump's other trade wars?

Trump is threatening to impose tariffs of up to 25 percent on a total of roughly $1 trillion in U.S. imports from Mexico. When adding up the potential impacts of Trump's threatened tariffs on almost all imports from Mexico and China as well as Japanese and European cars, he risks sending the United States into a recession — thus damaging his re-election hopes in 2020.

Waging a trade war against Mexico could serve as a lesson to China, Europe and Japan that even a quick deal capitulating to some of Trump's demands does not necessarily neutralize the threat of tariffs from the United States. It could very well prompt Beijing, for example, to harden its position amid its own trade negotiations with Washington — no longer able to trust Trump's promises that tariffs would be reduced long-term should China meet Washington demands.

What's the main takeaway?

While there's a chance Trump could actually implement the tariffs in full as a punishment for Mexico's failure to stem the northward flow of migrants, he may also be keeping them in reserve to spur the Mexican government to devote more forces to resolve the problem at hand.

A lot still depends on if — and to what extent — the president follows through on his threat. Trump's tariffs not only risk freezing the USMCA approval process, but plunging the United States and Mexico into recession. Though, in sending the Mexican economy into an even deeper tailspin, Trump risks making matters even worse on the U.S.-Mexico border by prompting even more desperate Mexican citizens to head north in search of work.

G M

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Re: Mexico-US matters
« Reply #771 on: May 31, 2019, 08:02:41 PM »
Fcuk Mexico. We need to use every pressure point to make them comply.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Mexico-US matters
« Reply #772 on: May 31, 2019, 08:04:47 PM »
Agreed 100%. 

I posted the Strat piece not because I agree but because it contains relevant info.

G M

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Re: Mexico-US matters
« Reply #773 on: May 31, 2019, 08:30:46 PM »
Agreed 100%. 

I posted the Strat piece not because I agree but because it contains relevant info.

https://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2019/05/bienvenido-reality-cabron.html

THIS.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Mexico-US matters
« Reply #774 on: May 31, 2019, 11:57:36 PM »
« Last Edit: May 31, 2019, 11:59:39 PM by Crafty_Dog »

G M

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Mexico's president meets reality, and doesn't like it
« Reply #775 on: June 01, 2019, 08:41:58 PM »
https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2019/06/mexicos-president-meets-reality-and.html

Mexico's president meets reality, and doesn't like it

Mexican President Lopez Obrador is apparently peeved with US President Trump over the latter's economic retaliation against Mexico for not stemming the tide of illegal alien border-jumpers.

In a pointed letter released Thursday, López Obrador lashed out at Trump for what he described as the U.S. president's "turning the United States, overnight, from a country of brotherly love for immigrants from around the world, to a bolted space, where there's stigmatizing, mistreatment, abuse, persecution, and a denial of the right to justice to those who seek -- with sacrifice and hard work -- to live free from misery."

López Obrador said that “social problems are not solved with duties or coercive measures,” and alluded to the United States’ history as a nation of immigrants: “The Statue of Liberty is not an empty symbol.”

He added in the letter, which he provided a link to on his Twitter account, that in contrast to Trump's approach, Mexico is doing its part to avoid migration through its territory as much as possible, without violating human rights.

“People don’t leave their homelands for pleasure but out of necessity," the Mexican leader said.

There's more at the link.

That's a fine note of righteous indignation, to be sure.  Unfortunately, it doesn't square with Lopez Obrador's far-left-wing credentials and previous pronouncements.  For example:
“Soon, very soon, after the victory of our movement, we will defend migrants all over the American continent and the migrants of the world who, by necessity, must abandon their towns to find life in the United States,” Lopez Obrador said during a rally in the Mexican city of Culiacán ... “It’s a human right we will defend,” he added.
Lopez Obrador said on Thursday tackling illegal immigration is an issue chiefly for the United States and Central America to address ... Mexico would help to check the flow of migrants heading north, but that his country was no longer the main driver of the phenomenon ... "That is, this is a problem of the United States, or it's a problem of the Central American countries. It's not up to us Mexicans, no ... I just emphasize that migration flows of Mexicans to the United States are very low, a lot lower," he said. "The Mexican is no longer seeking work in the United States. The majority are inhabitants of our fellow Central American countries."
That doesn't sound like a man seriously trying to address the issue, does it?

American Thinker pointed out last year:

To be sure, AMLO is only saying out loud what every other Mexican president believed in his heart: that America is Mexico's "social safety net" and that it's up to the U.S. taxpayer to take care of Mexico's unemployable, destitute millions.

Unsaid by AMLO is the implication of a mass migration of Mexicans to the U.S.  The not so secret dream of every Mexican government is that illegals flooding into America will eventually allow for a "return" of California and much of the American southwest to Mexico.

What makes this socialist different, however, is his novel argument that entering the U.S. illegally is actually a "human right."  That's an opinion we could have a lot of fun with.  One would assume that if it were a "human right" to illegally enter the U.S., it would then be a human right to enter Mexico – or any other country, for that matter.

Again, more at the link.

If the United States allowed unfettered, unrestricted access to aliens intent on crossing Canada's southern border, Canada would rightly protest as strongly as possible, and probably take the US to international courts, the United Nations, and any other avenue of action it could think of, to stem the tide.  If the US were to do the same to Mexico (assuming sufficient numbers of the insane could be found that are willing to enter that criminal-violence-plagued nation), Mexico would protest equally strongly.  Why, then is Lopez Obrador surprised to find a similar reaction from the US?

The stability of Mexico is dependent on one single thing:  its access to the US market.  That includes both production in Mexico that's exported north, and money sent home by its citizens in America (most of them here illegally), which amounts to a staggering $25-billion-plus (yes, that's "Billion" with a "B") every year.  Without that access and that cash flow, the Mexican economy would collapse.  That's the plain and simple truth - and that's what President Trump is now using as leverage.

If tariffs on Mexican imports don't work, President Trump can turn to the remittances sent to that country by people in the USA.  That would hurt even more than tariffs. He can't tax them without a new law passed by Congress, which isn't going to happen while Democrats control the House.  However, he can stop the flow altogether on national security grounds (for which, I submit, a mass invasion by illegal aliens, such as is now going on, could be more than sufficient grounds).  That would mess up Mexico's economy almost overnight.

I hope, for the sake of his country, that Lopez Obrador gets the picture, straightens up and flies right.  If he doesn't, Mexico is about to get squeezed . . . and I don't see any reason why it shouldn't.  If our positions were reversed, I'm sure it would try to do the same thing.


Crafty_Dog

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Mexico's bravest man
« Reply #777 on: June 03, 2019, 05:56:02 AM »




G M

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ccp

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Why are we asking Mexico to do what we should be doing?
« Reply #782 on: June 05, 2019, 06:52:36 AM »
In concert with above post pointing out 80% of narco mafia Mexico country , 80% of which under criminal control

Dan Horowitz suggests the Trump Mexico tariff if mis guided
partly because Mexico could not even if it really tried to, control the illegal influx

Dan clearly does not have the gift of gab (unlike Mark Levin) and he is too slow and prods along for too long but he does make good points.  I only could take the time to listen to half this piece but in the first 5 to 10 minutes one can get the bottom line of his rationale and he makes good points:

https://omny.fm/shows/the-conservative-conscience-with-daniel-horowitz-1/why-ask-mexico-to-do-the-job-the-american-governme

I don't know if the  tariff is helpful or not.   Sadly even with Trump or worse, (because of him?) the illegal immigration situation is more out of control than ever. 

« Last Edit: June 05, 2019, 06:57:19 AM by ccp »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Mexico-US matters
« Reply #783 on: June 05, 2019, 08:46:54 AM »
Mexico IS capable of stopping the flood of Central Americans and those of other countries among them at its southern border.  Mexico IS capable of not giving bus rides to them.


The fundamental problem here is that the Dems in Congress block the necessary changes to our law.


Crafty_Dog

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Re: Mexico-US matters
« Reply #785 on: June 24, 2019, 05:25:20 PM »
ISIS Jihadi on entering America through border:
https://www.judicialwatch.org/blog/2019/06/isis-fighter-affirms-what-jw-exposed-years-ago-terrorists-enter-u-s-via-mexico/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=corruption_chronicles&fbclid=IwAR35MW3XfJr12rqLQu1Uig1qPa5wKrXcYOmCv9ZvPGihuiCEjQGgIpD3Qu0
ISIS Fighter Affirms What JW Exposed Years Ago—Terrorists Enter U.S. Via Mexico - Judicial Watch
Five years after a Judicial Watch investigation uncovered evidence of Islamic terrorists infiltrating the United States through Mexico, a captured ISIS fighter is providing details of a plot in which jihadists enter the country through the southern border to carry out an attack. The terrorists...


Looking to fundamentally transform America with undocumented voters:

Pelosi On Immigrants: ‘Violation Of Status Is Not A Reason For Deportation’
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Monday that a violation of immigration status should not be a reason to deport someone illegally living in the U.S.
https://dailycaller.com/2019/06/24/nancy-pelosi-violation-status-not-reason-deportation-illegal-immigrants/?utm_medium=email

Thank you President Trump:
Report: Trump’s Asylum Program With Mexico Is Adding Two Additional Cities
The Remain in Mexico program will add two Mexican border towns, the latest sign that Mexico is doing more to mitigate illegal immigration into the U.S.
https://dailycaller.com/2019/06/24/two-cities-added-remain-in-mexico/?utm_medium=email&fbclid=IwAR2D4zMIAbzbrxNKNijuB3V4ncjOcPOzWwLlmPpe0iMegn0rW48-4yXUSrE


Mexican law enforcement reality:
mexiconewsdaily.com
Four coordinated attacks against Jalisco police leave five dead
Five people were killed on Friday in four coordinated attacks against Jalisco state police in Tlajomulco and Zapopan. Two of the dead were police officers.
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/attacks-against-jalisco-police-leave-five-dead/?fbclid=IwAR0NTGblbaKMohFje8mIBMKbtnIN5EZYwIfS1-MxlVZLX1GAdw0LgIdekI4
 
« Last Edit: June 24, 2019, 05:28:07 PM by Crafty_Dog »




Crafty_Dog

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Stratfor: Narco Wars
« Reply #789 on: July 14, 2019, 04:58:19 PM »
Highlights

    Mexican news outlet Milenio counted 2,249 murders nationwide in June, the highest monthly total since it began keeping its own tally in 2007 and the first time its numbers have ever surpassed 2,000 for a given month.
    According to Milenio, the four Mexican states with the highest murder counts in the month were Jalisco with 206, Mexico with 202, Baja California with 181 and Guanajuato with 176, an unsurprising development for those who have been tracking the country's cartel dynamic.
    The Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion is playing either a direct or indirect role in nearly every part of the country experiencing elevated violence.

Editor's Note: The full version of this security-focused assessment is one of many such analyses found at Stratfor Threat Lens, a unique protective intelligence product designed with corporate security leaders in mind. Threat Lens enables industry professionals and organizations to anticipate, identify, measure and mitigate emerging threats to people, assets, and intellectual property the world over. Threat Lens is the only unified solution that analyzes and forecasts security risk from a holistic perspective, bringing all the most relevant global insights into a single, interactive threat dashboard.

To those who closely follow violence in Mexico, the reports can sometimes seem overwhelming: Two shot dead in Cancun; 15 murdered in the last 24 hours in Tijuana; 12 dismembered bodies found in trash bags in Jalisco, etc. The headlines come in day after day in a steady rhythm of violence, and the photos are worse than the headlines. Images of dismembered bodies or of "narcomantas," messages from cartels on banners, left next to severed human heads appear at least weekly.

Mexican news outlet Milenio on July 1 published its unofficial count of murders in Mexico for the first half of 2019. Milenio counted 2,249 murders in June alone, the highest monthly number the news outlet has recorded since it began keeping its own tally in 2007. In fact, this is the first time that Milenio's numbers have ever surpassed 2,000 for any given month.

According to Milenio, the four states with the highest murder counts in June were Jalisco with 206, Mexico with 202, Baja California with 181 and Guanajuato with 176. While these numbers are not official, they still serve as a good barometer by which to measure the state of the country's violence. As expected, the country appears well on its way to another record-setting year for murders.

The Big Picture

Viewed individually, daily acts of violence in Mexico can appear senseless — but the violence is not senseless when seen through the lens of the overarching dynamics driving it. While some violence in Mexico results from personal disputes or local grievances, the majority results either from competition between cartels or among a cartel's members. Since 2006, Stratfor has worked to analyze, understand and chronicle the cartel dynamics that have driven the preponderance of the violence in Mexico. We present our findings in our annual cartel report, which helps clients understand what is driving the violence in Mexico.

Based on the trends we outlined in our 2019 annual cartel forecast, the high levels of violence in Jalisco, Mexico State, Baja California and Guanajuato state come as no surprise.

One commonality we are observing across Mexico is that the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) is playing a role in nearly every part of the country experiencing elevated violence, either directly or indirectly.

Jalisco

While the CJNG is busy expanding into other parts of the country, it is also embroiled in a bloody battle in its home turf of Guadalajara. The CJNG is facing a challenge from a splinter of the cartel that calls itself "Nueva Plaza" composed mostly of former CJNG members and led by Carlos "El Cholo" Enrique Sanchez Martinez and Erick Valencia Salazar, aka "El 85."
 
Sanchez Martinez is a former high-ranking member of the CJNG who reportedly broke with the group after the CJNG's leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (aka "El Mencho"), ordered the execution of a Colombian financial operator. Valencia Salazar, one of the founders of the CJNG, believes Oseguera Cervantes informed on him to the police in 2012 so that he would be arrested and Oseguera Cervantes could assume sole control of the organization. Following his release from prison in December 2017, Valencia Salazar has sought revenge on Oseguera Cervantes. Though he is a cousin of Rosalinda Gonzalez Valencia, the wife of Oseguera Cervantes, in this case, his grudge is stronger than his familial loyalties.
 
While interpersonal conflicts may have sparked the CJNG-Nueva Plaza conflict, it appears the Sinaloa cartel's Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada has fueled the fighting by helping fund Nueva Plaza in an effort to weaken his CJNG rivals.

Mexico State

Most of the violence in Mexico state is as a result of a turf war between smaller-scale groups competing for control of retail drug sales in Mexico City, and of other criminal activity such as prostitution and extortion. Several such "narcomenudistas"  are active in Mexico City, but the most powerful are the Union Tepito; the Cartel de Tlahuac; and the Anti-Union Tepito, or La U, a Union Tepito splinter. At the end of May, the leaders of both the Union Tepito and La U were arrested in police operations.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced June 27 that he will deploy national guard forces to Mexico City to help stem the growing crime problem there.

In recent weeks, Mexican authorities have claimed to have arrested several CJNG members in Mexico City and said they believe the organization is attempting to expand its presence in the region. The CJNG had been supporting Union Tepito but may now be attempting to assert itself directly in the Mexico City area in the wake of the leadership losses by Union Tepito and La U. This increase in direct CJNG activity is likely to result in more violence. On June 27, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced that he will deploy national guard forces to Mexico City to help stem the growing crime problem.

Baja California

The vast majority of the violence in Baja California state is a result of the continuing struggle for control of the Tijuana smuggling plaza. The dominant cartel group in Tijuana is the Sinaloa cartel branch run by the Arzate Garcia brothers, Rene (aka "La Rana") and Alfonso (aka "El Aquiles"). The brothers are Tijuana traffickers who helped Sinaloa wrest control of the city from the Arellano Felix organization (aka the Tijuana cartel), and they are now fighting to retain their position, which includes control over street-level retail drug sales as well as cross-border smuggling routes.

Their main opposition is a remnant of the Tijuana cartel that sometimes refers to itself as the Cartel de Tijuana Nueva Generacion, an acknowledgment of its affiliation with the CJNG. The CJNG is involved in this dispute because it does not have a border crossing of its own, and so has to pay a "piso," or tribute, for contraband it smuggles through border crossings controlled by other groups. Such payments can reach tens of millions of dollars a year for a large drug trafficking organization, thus providing the group a large financial incentive to attempt to control drug-smuggling routes known as plazas — even if this means protracted fighting. Coincidentally, this is the same reason that the Sinaloa cartel began its efforts to wrest control of border plazas controlled by other groups in 2003 such as Nuevo Laredo, where it failed, and then later Ciudad Juarez and Tijuana, where it succeeded.

With both of the local factions in Tijuana backed by powerful outside cartels with massive resources, the battle for control of the city may grind on until some unforeseen development impacts the dynamic.

Guanajuato

The Mexican government has launched an aggressive nationwide operation to stem fuel theft in the country, an operation that began with the deployment of federal security forces to the Salamanca refinery in Guanajuato. While these efforts have reduced the problem, they have done little to quell the violence in Guanajuato state.
 
Several cartels are active in Guanajuato, including remnants of Los Zetas, but the main catalyst of the violence there is the struggle between the CJNG and a regional organized crime group known as the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel led by Jose Antonio Yepez Ortiz (aka "El Marro".) Yepez Ortiz and his organization are fighting hard to keep the CJNG at bay, but the CJNG keeps sending forces into the state. The result has been sustained bloodshed.


Crafty_Dog

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GPF: Mexico's New National Guard
« Reply #791 on: July 25, 2019, 03:32:29 PM »
second post

Mexico’s New National Guard: What It Is, and What It Isn’t

Will the agency make any difference in crime rates?
By
Allison Fedirka -
July 23, 2019   

Every Mexican president over the past 20 years has tried to tackle the escalating violence and insecurity in the country. Some made more progress than others, but the problem has persisted. Now, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has developed his own strategy, at the heart of which is the new National Guard. It has been met with mixed reactions. Some have embraced the idea, while others believe it’s more of the same, offering little hope to substantially improve the security situation in the country.

What is certain, however, is that the Mexican government needs to do something to address the rising violence. 2018 set a new record high for homicide rates, and 2019 is already on track to break that record, with 14,600 homicides registered in the first half of this year alone, according to the National System of Public Security. Multiple polls reveal the level of fear that many Mexicans feel at the deteriorating conditions. A survey conducted by the Center for Social Studies and Public Opinion last October found that 62.9 percent of people felt unsafe where they lived. Similarly, a poll taken this month by the National Survey of Urban Public Security found that 73.9 percent of respondents felt unsafe. The violence has had an impact on businesses too, as companies are forced to boost security, relocate their facilities or shut down factories altogether because of the worsening security in the country. There’s also evidence that drug sales, extortion, kidnapping and violence are rising in parts of Mexico City that were previously considered safe.

Perceptions of Insecurity in Mexico

(click to enlarge)

But previous governments’ attempts to reduce the level of violence – through, for example, targeting cartel leaders and relying on the military – haven’t produced the desired results. So it’s understandable that the current administration has decided to take a different approach, starting with the creation of the National Guard, a security force Mexican authorities say will be a civilian agency. Prior to the guard’s inauguration on June 30, Mexico relied heavily on federal police, the army and navy to combat organized crime, primarily because local police were overwhelmed and have proved unreliable in dealing with organized crime. It was an ineffective system given that the army and navy are not structured or trained to handle domestic security problems. There were also concerns about excessive use of force, abuse of power and other human rights violations allegedly committed by the military during security operations. The Mexican public has, as a result, supported the creation of a civilian force that’s supposed to help lower crime rates. According to a poll conducted by research firm Parametria shortly after Lopez Obrador announced the project, 87 percent of Mexicans said they backed the National Guard.

The new security body is tasked with 20 functions, chief among them crime prevention and investigation. Surveillance, verification and inspection activities are also top priorities. Other functions include cybersecurity, intelligence and information gathering. The remaining functions cover organizational support and administrative roles. Salaries for National Guard members will be competitive (19,000 pesos, or $1,000 per month, according to Lopez Obrador) to discourage bribes and corruption. The National Guard will be composed of some 82,000 members (some of whom have already been deployed) covering 150 locations that have been identified as high risk. By 2021, it will grow to 111,000 members covering 266 locations nationwide.

Murders and National Guard Deployments by State

(click to enlarge)

There are questions, however, about its structure and independence as a civilian institution. The guard falls under the authority of the Secretariat of Civilian Security and Protection. But the second-level chain of command will also include army and navy personnel and defense ministry officials. Furthermore, 62 percent of the officers currently serving in the guard come from the army, 16 percent from the navy and only 22 percent from the federal police. The federal police will be eliminated within the next 18 months as it’s absorbed into the guard, while the army will continue to be one of the main sources of recruitment through 2021. Efforts to recruit civilians have produced poor results thus far. It seems the introduction of the National Guard may not be such a radical change after all.

The agency has thus faced public backlash. Many human rights groups and other community organizations see the changes it has ushered in as more cosmetic than structural. They contend that, because the military will play an important role in the guard, problems with abuse of power and excessive use of force will continue. The federal police have also voiced their concerns over having their own members recruited into the agency – thousands of officers even went on strike over the issue. The police are also worried about the lack of transparency over pay, uncertainty about seniority recognition and the treatment they received from military leadership. So far, the government has managed to alleviate some of the federal police’s concerns, but civilian groups insist more changes are needed.

However, the National Guard was structured this way for a reason. While efforts have been made to train more local police forces, they will not be ready for at least another three years, assuming everything goes according to plan. By recruiting from the military and federal police, the National Guard was able to launch earlier than it likely could have had it relied solely on civilian or local police forces. And despite the concerns of some civil society organizations, the army and navy are consistently ranked among the most-trusted institutions in Mexico. Recruiting from the military, therefore, could help increase the guard’s credibility among the public. In addition, the National Guard has received widespread political support. To create the agency, the government needed to pass certain constitutional changes, which required majority support in both houses of Congress and in at least 17 of 32 state legislatures. That the government was able to garner support from all 32 legislatures shows that a wide range of regions and politicians in Mexico back the National Guard.

(click to enlarge)

Public trust in and political backing for the National Guard, however, do not automatically mean the new organization will succeed. In the long term, drawing forces from the military isn’t sustainable, and the guard will have to start recruiting from the civilian population, especially if it is to win over the public’s confidence and prove its own utility. More important, the guard needs to produce results in terms of fighting crime and reducing violence (particularly with regard to the homicide rate). In a poll conducted this month, some 60.3 percent of Mexicans said they think the security situation is the same or worse than it was 12 months ago. And given that many of the people who are now part of the National Guard were also part of the federal police or military just a year ago, it’s questionable whether there will be any improvements in crime rates.

The National Guard will play a key role in efforts to improve security in Mexico, but it can’t be expected to single-handedly end violence in the country. It’s just one component of a much broader criminal justice system – one that many still see as extremely corrupt and unreliable. Meanwhile, the root causes of crime in Mexico, including socio-economic factors like unemployment and a lack of education, still need to be addressed. Lopez Obrador’s national security strategy deals with many of these issues, but it is in the early stages of development. The National Guard is just one piece of the puzzle, and the final judgement on whether or not it’s a success will have to wait until the other pieces are put into place.

   
Allison Fedirka is a senior analyst for Geopolitical Futures. In addition to writing analyses, she helps train new analysts, oversees the intellectual quality of analyst work and helps guide the forecasting process. Prior to joining Geopolitical Futures, Ms. Fedirka worked for Stratfor as a Latin America specialist and subsequently as the Latin America regional director. She lived in South America – primarily Argentina and Brazil – for more than seven years and, in addition to English, fluently speaks Spanish and Portuguese. Ms. Fedirka has a bachelor’s degree in Spanish and international studies from Washington University in St. Louis and a master’s degree in international relations and affairs from the University of Belgrano, Argentina. Her thesis was on Brazil and Angola and south-south cooperation.


ccp

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asians paying 40K
« Reply #793 on: July 27, 2019, 09:01:00 AM »
Is that cheaper than simply coming in through NYC and overstaying visas or as tourists who don't go home,
or paying for having children in our hospitals and finding way to get the whole family here?

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