Author Topic: Pathological Science  (Read 411799 times)

DougMacG

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Re: Fiction is Truth, Hot is Cold
« Reply #850 on: September 09, 2015, 01:58:47 PM »
More icebreakers for a warming planet:

http://iceagenow.info/2015/09/obama-seeking-more-icebreakers-for-arctic-ice-that-is-supposedly-disappearing/

Sierra Club Canada: Ice will be gone in 2013.
Al Gore: Ice Free in 2014
BBC:  Ice-Free in 2013

Obama, 2015:  We need more Ice Breakers!

Funny, BBG, if it wasn't our money they are messing with.

National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder CO September, 2015:  Arctic Gaining Ice Last 3 Years.
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/09/09/arctic-has-gained-hundreds-of-miles-of-ice-the-last-three-years/

Who knew?



Green is the ice gain of the last 3 years.

Body-by-Guinness

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Nobel Winning Physicist on AGW
« Reply #851 on: September 13, 2015, 10:59:17 AM »
Does a nice job of deconstructing AGW silliness.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/TCy_UOjEir0

Body-by-Guinness

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US Glaciers Growing
« Reply #852 on: September 20, 2015, 12:13:02 PM »
No doubt caused be global warming/climate change/something else unfalsifiable:

http://iceagenow.info/2015/09/glaciers-advancing-on-mt-baker-washington-says-renowned-geologist/


Body-by-Guinness

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RICO Boomerang
« Reply #854 on: September 30, 2015, 07:34:22 PM »
Heh, the gent who authored the letter asking Obama to use RICO laws against climate "deniers" has been shown to have played fast and loose with various payroll policies, including padding a grant with family members. Said letter has since mysteriously disappeared, the Streisand Effect is in full swing, and yet another panic monger has been given hoist on his own petard. More info here:

http://climateaudit.org/2015/09/28/shuklas-gold/

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Pathological Science
« Reply #855 on: September 30, 2015, 07:35:08 PM »
 :lol: :lol:

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Body-by-Guinness

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Another Uncharted Variable Heard From
« Reply #857 on: October 02, 2015, 07:42:19 PM »
Oh dear, a newly understood aerosol producing volatile organic compound process thought to have a cooling effect hasn't been accounted for in any of the settled science models. Lay explanation here:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/09/30/massive_global_cooling_factor_discovered_ahead_of_paris_climate_talks/

Published paper here:

http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.5b02388

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More on Isoprene
« Reply #858 on: October 03, 2015, 11:29:28 AM »

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When the Data Doesn't Fit the Theory, it Proves the Null Hypothesis
« Reply #859 on: October 03, 2015, 12:06:51 PM »
Second post.

Haven't followed all the links yet, but this appears to be a brilliant piece of null hypothesis jiu jitsu.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/03/did-james-hansen-unwittingly-prove-the-null-hypothesis-of-agw/

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Recycling Myths
« Reply #860 on: October 05, 2015, 11:32:39 AM »
Something I've long believed is that global warming hyperventilation amounts to an appeal to authority with which political class micromanagers demand adherence to their often times extra-constitutional dictates. I think much of the recycling scam is founded on a similar foundation: demanding people sift through and clean their trash for a higher good that is never realized:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/opinion/sunday/the-reign-of-recycling.html

G M

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Re: Recycling Myths
« Reply #861 on: October 07, 2015, 07:32:56 AM »
Something I've long believed is that global warming hyperventilation amounts to an appeal to authority with which political class micromanagers demand adherence to their often times extra-constitutional dictates. I think much of the recycling scam is founded on a similar foundation: demanding people sift through and clean their trash for a higher good that is never realized:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/opinion/sunday/the-reign-of-recycling.html

Environmentalism has become a religion.

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Shut up or I'll hit you with a RICO violation
« Reply #862 on: October 09, 2015, 05:52:18 PM »

Oct. 9, 2015 6:31 p.m. ET
36 COMMENTS

Elizabeth Warren recently drove out a think-tank scholar for having the nerve to report that a new federal regulation could cost billions, but the progressive censor movement is broad and growing. Advocates of climate regulation are urging the Obama Administration to investigate people who don’t share their views.

Last month George Mason Professor Jagadish Shukla and 19 others signed a letter to President Obama, Attorney General Loretta Lynch and White House science adviser John Holdren urging punishment for climate dissenters. “One additional tool—recently proposed by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse—is a RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act) investigation of corporations and other organizations that have knowingly deceived the American people about the risks of climate change, as a means to forestall America’s response to climate change,” they wrote.

In other words, they want the feds to use a law created to prosecute the mafia against lawful businesses and scientists. In a May op-ed in the Washington Post, Mr. Whitehouse specifically cited Willie Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, who has published politically inconvenient research on changes in solar radiation.

The RICO threat is intended to shut down debate because it can inflict treble damages upon a defendant. Enacted to stop organized crime and specifically to prosecute individuals tied to loansharking and murder-for-hire, it was long seen as so powerful a tool that the government warned prosecutors to limit its use.

“The demand by Senator Whitehouse and the 20 climate scientists for legal persecution of people whose research on science and policy they disagree with represents a new low in the politicization of science,” says Georgia Tech’s Judith Curry on the Fox News website. She should know, as one of seven academics investigated last winter by Rep. Raul Grijalva (D., Ariz.) for their climate research.

By the way, Mr. Shukla appears to have no problem taking money from the government to support his climate theories. Though it has since been taken down, the letter from the Shukla gang demanding a RICO assault was published on the website of the Institute of Global Environment and Society (IGES), a tax-exempt entity run by Mr. Shukla that the website says has also employed his wife and daughter. The House Science Committee says the outfit has received more than $25 million in federal grants since 2008. House Science Chairman Lamar Smith says the family’s earnings from IGES are “in addition to an annual salary of approximately $314,000 paid to Dr. Shukla by George Mason University.”

When we contacted George Mason to sort out these financial arrangements, the school suggested we contact Mr. Shukla directly. He hasn’t responded to our inquiries.

Meanwhile, Sen. Warren also doesn’t seem to want to live by the rules she enforces on others. Recall that she drove Robert Litan out of the Brookings Institution last week in part because his research on new financial regulations was funded by the asset manager Capital Group—which he clearly disclosed. The website OpenSecrets.org says Ms. Warren has accepted more than $600,000 from the securities and investment industry, including more than $6,000 from Capital Group executives.

Perhaps she’d say it’s fine for her to use her Senate Banking Committee perch to rake in contributions from financial firms because she often disagrees with them. Then again, lawyers and law firms that benefit from her policy interventions have given her more than $2 million. She’s also collected more than $1.3 million from the education industry, which benefits from her campaign to expand education subsidies.

We called Sen. Warren’s office to ask why the Senator isn’t living by the Warren standard. A press aide replied that among other alleged offenses, Mr. Litan had accepted “editorial input” from the sponsors of his research. Yes it’s true, as Mr. Litan has said forthrightly all along, he did accept comments from the sponsor. He has also maintained that the analysis and conclusions were his own and those of co-author Hal Singer.

If accepting “editorial input” is grounds for dismissal, academics or journalists wouldn’t be the only ones preparing resignation letters. Is Sen. Warren now going to tell us that a campaign donor has never made a suggestion to her about government policy?

The strategy of the progressive left is no longer to win public debates, but to forcibly silence their opponents. And to enforce a double standard in the bargain.

Body-by-Guinness

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Bias in Social Cost of Carbon Assumptions
« Reply #863 on: October 13, 2015, 06:48:15 PM »
This is very interesting, albeit mathematically intensive stuff: This paper looks at the likelihood of confirmation bias in papers estimating the social cost of carbon (an important "estimate [self serving fantasy] used to calculate just how far back into the Stone Age we must be cast to appease the climate gods or some such) using statistical techniques including regression analysis that reveal the presence of confirmation bias. Basically, if you show the root cost assumptions are deeply flawed by wishful, if it can be called that, thinking then much of the "science" associated with those assumption are likely deeply biased, too.

http://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=822120120111024006081068077007088101052045036029007018028086098122126080069022088096017052125052057022012005125081068106119026118059005053080005028008000127087091019058062072114125065080030123093098002080000021124066000064066101108068016114083031083&EXT=pdf

Abstract
We examine potential selective reporting in the literature on the social cost of carbon (SCC) by conducting a meta-analysis of 809 estimates of the SCC reported in 101 studies. Our results indicate that estimates for which the 95% confidence interval includes zero are less likely to be reported than estimates excluding negative values of the SCC, which might create an upward bias in the literature. The evidence for selective reporting is stronger for studies published in peer-reviewed journals than for unpublished papers. We show that the findings are not driven by the asymmetry of the confidence intervals surrounding the SCC and are robust to controlling for various characteristics of study design and to alternative definitions of confidence intervals. Our estimates of the mean reported SCC corrected for the selective reporting bias are imprecise and range between USD 0 and 130 per ton of carbon at 2010 prices for emission year 2015.


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Vegan Democrat Recants . . .
« Reply #865 on: October 16, 2015, 05:50:38 PM »

G M

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Re: Vegan Democrat Recants . . .
« Reply #866 on: October 16, 2015, 05:56:50 PM »
. . . and writes a long piece about why climate panic is unwarranted:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/16/how-a-liberal-vegan-environmentalist-made-the-switch-from-climate-proponent-to-climate-skeptic/

He will learns that leftist apostasy is almost as unpleasant as islamic aspostasy.

Body-by-Guinness

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Lurch Laments
« Reply #867 on: October 24, 2015, 02:39:10 PM »


Body-by-Guinness

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The Oil Companies' Role in Paris Attack?
« Reply #869 on: November 14, 2015, 01:43:12 PM »
Over the years I've watched all sorts of alarmists blame nefarious oil companies for any number of ills, always neglecting to note that oil companies contribute to green causes also and then failing to suggest a commensurate level of evil influences on the alarmist side of the house that they forever rattle on about where "deniers" are concerned.

Well here sits those hypocritical habits taken to their illogical extreme:

http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2986288/paris_attacks_cop21_and_the_war_on_terror.html


Body-by-Guinness

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NOAA's Climate Arc
« Reply #870 on: November 19, 2015, 06:47:55 PM »
Oh dear, a NOAA paper rushed through to dispute "the pause" in global warming is being outed by whistleblowers, with Senate subpoenas to follow:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/19/is-noaa-about-to-crack/

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Reducing Irreproducible Results
« Reply #871 on: November 24, 2015, 08:21:39 AM »
Much of climate alarmism rests on models that don't lend themselves to reproducible results, usually while also failing to adhere to the historical record when checking to see if they are congruent with it. To my mind this is intentional as it's much easier to hyperventilate about doom when not constrained by the need to produce replicable science.

Though this piece doesn't speak directly to climate alarmism, some of the recommendations herein would do much to address climate panic mongering:

http://retractionwatch.com/2015/11/24/improving-reproducibility-what-can-funders-do-guest-post-by-dorothy-bishop/



DougMacG

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Re: Civilization & Climate in Context
« Reply #874 on: November 29, 2015, 08:19:35 PM »
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/29/climate-and-human-civilization-over-the-last-18000-years-2/

BBG,  I wonder what percentagbe of scientists know the temperature pattern of the last 10,000 years.
Here is one arctic look at just the last 10k:


Source: NOAA

Another look, last 12k, here is the Antarctic:

\
« Last Edit: November 29, 2015, 08:24:07 PM by DougMacG »


DougMacG

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Re: Pathological Science
« Reply #876 on: November 30, 2015, 07:33:21 AM »
A common sense, middle ground view of global warming.  A must read and must read the links article IMO.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/11/30/what_should_we_do_about_climate_change_128876.html

DougMacG

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Re: Memory Hole!
« Reply #877 on: November 30, 2015, 08:08:47 AM »
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/12/one-of-the-longest-running-climate-prediction-blunders-has-disappeared-from-the-internet/

Orwell, the Soviets, now it's modern, western, taxpayer funded science wiping its pages.  No, we never said that.

I've been wondering when the Inconvenient Truth movie people would be coming out with their correction...

Don't know about Britain with a jetstream coming out of the Caribbean, but ice and snow is the law of the land here. 

DougMacG

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Re: Pathological Science, how much is 400PPM
« Reply #878 on: December 01, 2015, 01:18:53 PM »
Obama has witnessed global warming personally, visited "our northern most state".  Fish are swimming in the streets of Miami.

8 inches of snow here last night, lakes freezing over.  Must be some other globe.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So how much is 400 parts per million.  let's visualize the math.

400 per 1,000,000 is the same as 4 parts per 10,000.

Now visualize a 10,000 seat stadium with 4 people in it and 9,996 seats empty.
The alarmists are calling that over-crowded?

Keep in mind that as atmospheric CO2 approaches zero, all life dies, starting at about 150 PPM.  And without CO2 and plant life, there is no oxygen production.

Some scientists believe a safer level would be closer to 1000 PPM to sustain life.
http://deforestation.geologist-1011.net/



Thank God CO2 levels aren't falling any further at this point.  The economic externality might be to pay the emitters...

Body-by-Guinness

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Chicago Style
« Reply #879 on: December 09, 2015, 05:19:03 PM »
Next time a climate alarmist tells you the science is settled show them this and ask if they support Chicago Style sorts of settlements such as those cited here:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/08/mark-steyns-illuminating-and-entertaining-testimony-to-the-cruz-hearing-on-climate-today/

ccp

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Re: Pathological Science
« Reply #880 on: December 17, 2015, 12:32:34 PM »
One half of the Greenland ice sheet has melted this year!?   

http://news.yahoo.com/arctic-temperatures-rising-breakneck-speed-155146987.html

Body-by-Guinness

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What Doesn't Warm Us Makes Us Cooler . . .
« Reply #882 on: December 21, 2015, 07:38:26 PM »
. . . masking the warming that must be there. This non-falsifiable science stuff sure makes life easy, what with all data points confirming notions pre-concieved:

http://iceagenow.info/complete-turn-around-now-nasa-says-burning-fossil-fuels-cools-planet/

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Publication Bias and the Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #883 on: January 01, 2016, 03:43:01 PM »
Lots of links in this piece leading various interesting directions:

http://www.cato.org/blog/you-ought-have-look-publication-bias

DougMacG

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Re: Pathological Science, anecdotal warming and a football game
« Reply #884 on: January 08, 2016, 09:24:01 AM »
To all the people who say they can feel 1/4 degree per generation of warming or point to a warm day somewhere as evidence of warming, I would like to remind them that that is still too f'ing cold in too many places on this planet.

Minneapolis tore down an indoor stadium last year that served fine to host Super Bowl, NCAA Final Four and World Series twice.  Vikings are playing temporarily in the U of M stadium outdoors for a couple of years.  So welcome NFL and the Seattle Seahawks to Mpls in January.  33 degrees today with more new snow and water vapor trapping in the 'heat', but sunny and a high barely above zero on Sunday with nothing but manmade CO2 trapping in the heat.  4 'above', as we say, will feel like -12, and that is the high, not the low!  The concrete below your feet and seat will also be in the teens below zero from the overnight lows.   Coldest game ever in Seattle franchise history.  Bradygate officials may want to add some air to the ball if this goes into overtime and darkness.  Analysts say the kicking game may be affected.  'ya think?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/nfl-wild-card-weekend-playoffs-seattle-seahawks-and-minnesota-vikings-brutal-cold/54624092
« Last Edit: January 08, 2016, 12:08:54 PM by Crafty_Dog »

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Coal Mine Requires Ouija Board
« Reply #885 on: January 08, 2016, 10:25:08 AM »

Crafty_Dog

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Crafty_Dog

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Unsettling "Science"; much published research not checked
« Reply #888 on: January 19, 2016, 07:34:07 PM »
The unanimity demanded by those who embrace the "climate science" mantle never ceases to astound. More so as established disciplines under less political pressure to produce a homogenized product are finding that much of their peer reviewed research proves to be less than replicable:

http://reason.com/archives/2016/01/19/broken-science
« Last Edit: January 19, 2016, 10:06:38 PM by Crafty_Dog »


DougMacG

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Re: Pathological Science
« Reply #890 on: January 25, 2016, 08:01:44 AM »
This has to have something to do with 'global warming' and 'climate change', when did we start naming snowstorms?

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-jonas-latest-storm-reports-blizzard

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DougMacG

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Re: Pathological Science
« Reply #892 on: February 03, 2016, 07:41:34 AM »
Record Feb 2 snowstorm in Minneapolis.  1st snowfall ever in Okinawa.  Or as alarmist funded scientists would say, whatever.
http://www.startribune.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I92uWkQWTHo&list=TLF9Ea78NUPH0wMjAyMjAxNg

(We are in South Florida this week where the ocean levels still look manageable.)

NOAA central global warming claim debunked:
http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/02/scientist-ruthlessly-debunks-one-of-nasas-central-climate-claims/

When a theory contradicts the facts” you need to change the theory, Christy said. “The real world is not going along with rapid warming. The models need to go back to the drawing board.”


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Survey Says: Less Neutrality Leads to More Activism
« Reply #893 on: February 04, 2016, 04:30:40 PM »
This won't surprise anyone except those so enamored with their doomstruck pronouncements that they believe any tactic is justified when trumpeting their beliefs, but someone has taken a look at whether a lack of neutrality correlates with the embrace of activism. Anyone who has watched environmental hysteria unfold knows that answer already:

http://www.cato.org/blog/do-scientists-suppress-uncertainty-climate-change-debate

DougMacG

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Re: Pathological Science
« Reply #894 on: February 18, 2016, 08:16:09 PM »
This material never ends:

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS:

● “Snow and ice expected to cause chaos for rush hour commuters.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/snow-and-ice-expected-to-cause-chaos-for-rush-hour-commuters-a6878556.html
—Headline, London Independent, yesterday.

● “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/12/one-of-the-longest-running-climate-prediction-blunders-has-disappeared-from-the-internet/
—Headline, London Independent, March 20th, 2000.

http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/

DougMacG

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By choosing a different starting date and intermixing the urban heat island effect, NOAA press releases find one half of a degree of warming over 37 years while their more accurate data show no warming over 60 years.



http://realclimatescience.com/2016/03/noaa-radiosonde-data-shows-no-warming-for-58-years/

Read the longer story.  These people take Billions in taxpayer money just to commit a fraud on us.

In their “hottest year ever” press briefing, NOAA stated that they have a 58 year long radiosonde temperature record. But [to show warming] they only showed the last 37 years in the graph.

Here is why they are hiding the rest of the data. The earlier data showed as much pre-1979 cooling as the post-1979 warming. (see graphs)

[NOAA data] shows that the earth’s atmosphere has not warmed at all since the late 1950’s.

The omission of this data from the NOAA report, is just their latest attempt to defraud the public. NOAA’s best data shows no warming for 60 years. But it gets worse. The graph in the NOAA report shows about 0.5C warming from 1979 to 2010, but their original published data shows no warming during that period.

Due to Urban Heat Island Effects, the NOAA surface data shows nearly one degree warming from 1979 to 2010, but their original radiosonde data showed no warming during that time. Global warming theory is based on troposphere warming, which is why the radiosonde data should be used by modelers – instead of the UHI contaminated surface data.

NOAA’s original published radiosonde data showed no net troposphere warming from 1958 to 2010, when the data set ended.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2016, 03:45:56 PM by DougMacG »


DougMacG

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Re: Pathological Science, Climate forecasts may be flawed, says study
« Reply #897 on: April 07, 2016, 08:02:08 AM »
I can't believe this, Climate forecasts may be flawed...

https://in.news.yahoo.com/climate-forecasts-may-flawed-says-170007812.html

Predictions of unprecedented rainfall extremes in the 20th century driven by global warming turned out wrong, a study said Wednesday, casting doubt on methods used to project future trends.

A massive trawl of Northern Hemisphere rainfall data for the last 1,200 years revealed there had been more dramatic wet-dry weather extremes in earlier, cooler centuries before humans set off fossil fuel-driven global warming.

This is problematic, said a study in the journal Nature, as the same data models used to anticipate that global warming would cause record rainfall extremes in the 1900s, are the basis for projections of things to come.

"It might be more difficult than often assumed to project into the future," the study's lead author Fredrik Ljungqvist of Stockholm University told AFP of the findings.
--------------

Who knew?


Crafty_Dog

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