Author Topic: 2020 Presidential election  (Read 54632 times)

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 52351
    • View Profile

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 11164
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #952 on: October 10, 2020, 08:46:43 AM »
yup

he will likely (and therefore we, will lose big)

it is all a referendum of HIM.

God, I pray we hold the Senate.

 :-o

Just spoke to my nephew for another reason.
Did not get into politics much but he just wishes the election were over .  I said I feel like I am being hit over the head with a. hammer every day
by the media vs Trump and his tweets.

he agrees



Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 52351
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #954 on: October 10, 2020, 09:46:30 AM »
Made a major donation to President Trump.


Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 52351
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #956 on: October 10, 2020, 09:28:54 PM »
Generally I can take or leave Watters, but tonight's opening segment impressed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-xv7o3Zm7o


DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election, VP debate continued
« Reply #958 on: October 11, 2020, 07:10:58 AM »
Moderators still heavily biased. Susan Page said the economy is slowing down - a standard liberal talking point. Slowing down? It’s a rocket ship. Atlanta Fed estimates 33 percent GDP growth for just ended 3rd quarter - the highest growth rate ever. Unemployment at 7.9 percent about half what was expected six months ago. The number of people collecting unemployment benefits FELL by one million last week. The US has the fastest growing economy in the world today.
 
Kamala and Biden are FOR the green new deal and Medicare for all. She said earlier this year in Dem debate that tens of millions would be forced to give up their private health care. Under her plan, you lose your health insurance whether you like it or not. Biden's plan eliminates all fossil fuels. She lied last night.
 
The economy was NOT strong under Obama-Biden. The growth rate in 2016 was 1.6 percent and headed to a possible recession. That’s why Hillary lost. Only one in three Americans rated the economy good or great in 2016. By 2019 two in three did. As Chart shows the inflection point was Trump’s election.
 
Trump and Pence are still not telling the right story about the pandemic. The story is this: Trump correctly let the states take the lead - because New York City isn’t Utah or Nebraska - and the democratic governors rushed to lock down their states (Cuomo and Murphy) had the highest death rates and the highest business failures and job losses.  GOP governors are opening their economies and schools; Democratic governors are STILL shutting down. Biden is in favor of national mandates and another catastrophic lockdown. The Democrats are the lockdown party and another lockdown With a $4 trillion tax hike would cause a second Great Depression.
 
Pence nailed Harris on “accepting the results of the election” question. He’s right that Obama-Biden attempted to overturn the election and the outrageous impeachment scam to oust an elected president lasted two years and was completely discredited.
    - Unleash Prosperity Hotline   10/8/2020

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #959 on: October 11, 2020, 09:29:28 AM »
Using worst case scenario I posted a couple of days ago, Trump had 260 locked in EV.  Now after the Trafalgar poll of Michigan, am moving it as a lock for Trump, making it 276 EV.

Also, 1 million young college attendees are not expected to vote. Reason is that they are not in school attendance, taking classes only from home. And there is no Get Out To Vote working on them.
PPulatie


DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #961 on: October 12, 2020, 06:19:26 AM »
A vote for Joe Biden is a vote for ... ? 

Violence in our cities.  Personal destruction of principled conservatives, Robert Bork, Clarence Thomas, Brett Kavanaugh, and those who will follow.  Toppling of our statues.  Toppling of constitutional principles.  Ends justify means.  End of the Supreme Court as we know it.  Iran and China. World mayhem.

A vote for Joe Biden is a vote against ... ?

Economic growth.  Law and order.  Constitutional framework.  Freedom of speech.
 Affordable energy.  Right to keep the fruit of your labor and investment.  Life of the unborn.  Right to defend yourself and your family. 

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #962 on: October 12, 2020, 06:48:02 PM »
 history and historical trends.

The biggest issue in the campaign is Covid-19. There has been 11 Incumbents to face a pandemic during re-election. The incumbent is 11-0 (1820-present). '

m-Many experts say bad economies end incumbents careers.
This is not true. The incumbent party is 12-11 when facing re-election during a bad economy.

There is a huge correlation to primary performance with this historical trend. Since the first primary in 1912, 7 incumbents have faced a bad economy during re-election. 5 of those incumbents had very poor primary performances and lost. 2 of them had strong primary performances and won re-election.

In fact, no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama. Trump is only 1 of 5 incumbents since 1912 to receive 90% or more of the primary vote.

We've never seen primary participation levels for an incumbent like we did in the 2020 GOP primary. Trump set a record for most votes received by an incumbent with 18.1M. The previous record was held by Bill Clinton with 9.7M primary votes.

We have also had riots. Incumbents are 6-6 when facing re-election during civil unrest, but 4-0 when facing a pandemic and civil unrest.

Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections.

What about polls?

Well, polls are predicting Trump's win. The ABC poll shows Trump with a 19 point enthusiasm advantage. Every candidate since 1988 that led in enthusiasm, has won the election.

Pew gives Trump a 20 pt advantage in strength of support. The leader in this poll has won every election since 1964.

All polls show voters expect Trump to win. The expectation question is more accurate than the voter intention question that has Biden leading.

Since 2004, the candidate that led in google searches has won the election. Trump leads Biden in google searches by a ratio of 3 to 1.

On Polls

The larger the class divide in the electorate, the larger the polling error

There has been many elections where polls just failed to predict anything. 1948, 1952, 1976, 1980, 1996, 2000, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 all had major polling errors.

In 2012, the current trend of low response rates began. Since 2012, polls have gotten worse.

The 2018 polls were not better than 2016, they were worse. Polls are incapable of predicting anything. especially with cancel culture and pollsters insistence on going in the field during major news events. 2020 has been one long major news event....
so the likelihood of a large response bias is high this year.

Joe Biden also has a history against him.

No one who served 15 years in the Senate has ever become president. Joe Biden has served 36 years.
The 14 year rule - No one gets elected president who needs longer than 14 years to get from his or her first gubernatorial or Senate victory to either the presidency or the vice presidency. Biden needed 36 years to become VP.

History is against Biden and in favor of Trump.

The only thing that shows Biden winning are polls. By every historical metric and trend, Donald Trump will win this election.
PPulatie

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 52351
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #963 on: October 13, 2020, 05:55:47 AM »
Pat:

I needed that!

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 11164
    • View Profile
seems like most people do not want what Democrats are serving
« Reply #964 on: October 13, 2020, 08:37:16 AM »
After the Republican National Convention

during which Trump the man seemed downplayed mostly and the topics were mostly on policy and contrast to the Dem Party polls tightened

than as soon as Trump goes back to being himself the reverse happens

like this:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/anthony-fauci-president-trump-campaign-ad-coronavirus-141237571.html

I am not sure I even care anymore


ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #965 on: October 13, 2020, 12:53:06 PM »
CD,

Can add some more hope to that.

Trump[ campaign has "redirected" money for the Iowa and Ohio campaigns.  These are "safe" states for him now. Instead the money is being spent in Oregon and New Mexico.

He is trying to grab everything. If he can get New Mexico, then Nevada will go Trump. And if he gets Oregon, Colorado will also fall to him.

This is akin to being ahead 75-0 going into the the 4th Quarter and leaving the 1st string in. Or as Nathaniel Bedford Forrest would say...."keeping up the skeer."
PPulatie

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #966 on: October 13, 2020, 12:55:06 PM »
GAWD!  Las Vegas Review...........Trump within 2 points of Biden.  Factor in the "shy" Trump voter, and it could be even, or maybe Trump with a small lead!
PPulatie

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 18342
    • View Profile
Re: seems like most people do not want what Democrats are serving
« Reply #967 on: October 13, 2020, 02:44:06 PM »
After the Republican National Convention

during which Trump the man seemed downplayed mostly and the topics were mostly on policy and contrast to the Dem Party polls tightened

than as soon as Trump goes back to being himself the reverse happens

like this:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/anthony-fauci-president-trump-campaign-ad-coronavirus-141237571.html

I am not sure I even care anymore

You should. The next election the dems win will be the end of anything resembling America.

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #968 on: October 13, 2020, 05:46:55 PM »
pp,  Wouldn't that be funny  - if Trump won Oregon.!

Must admit, heard it here first.  )
« Last Edit: October 13, 2020, 05:54:51 PM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #969 on: October 13, 2020, 06:24:35 PM »
What Trump 330 looks like.

« Last Edit: October 14, 2020, 12:55:55 AM by DougMacG »

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #970 on: October 13, 2020, 06:53:45 PM »
Trump Train is picking up speed!
PPulatie

G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 18342
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #971 on: October 13, 2020, 07:25:36 PM »
What Trump 3:30 looks like.



Nevada will find enough mail in votes for a Biden win. The election night vote numbers just tell the dems how many swing state votes they need to find in the mail.

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
NYT (Bret Stephens) identifies a shy Trump voter
« Reply #972 on: October 14, 2020, 06:56:48 AM »
I couldn't believe this NYT but their house conservative Bret Stephens seems to be on the outs there.  Link omitted because America doesn't subscribe anymore.
—------------------
Chris is a registered Democrat in her 50s who lives in Manhattan. She’s well-educated, well-traveled and well-informed. She has voted for candidates of both parties over the years and was enthusiastic for Bernie Sanders in 2016.

She’s asked me not to publish her last name. It would not go down well for her at the store where she works as a manager if her colleagues knew that she plans to vote for Donald Trump.

Chris is also gay. “Being a lesbian who’s voting for Trump is like coming out of the closet again,” she tells me...

It’s worth understanding where she’s coming from.

Start with the economy. “I haven’t seen double digit [gains] in my 401(k) since the internet boom of the late ’90s,” she says. “It went up 19.6 percent” in the year before the pandemic. “Look at the stock market,” she says. (Up about 35 percent from four years ago.) “Look at gas prices.” (About the same as what they were when Trump took office, but well below the $3.31 per gallon at the midpoint of the Obama administration.)

“This is everyday stuff that affects me,” she says. “I don’t care about Afghanistan and the Middle East. I care about having a job. I care about having health care through my company. I was out of a job a few years ago. Obamacare priced me out [of private insurance]. It was like, $560 a month. Then Obama’s website blew up. He can’t get the website right?”

Then there’s the pandemic. “Is Trump trying to play it down?” she asks. “Yeah. But when this first started, the news media was saying that millions of people were going to die. And look at it: 200,000, compared to the population...

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #973 on: October 14, 2020, 07:33:13 AM »
Okay, the election polls are giving me whiplash.  I go between optimistic that Trump will win handily, to cold sweats and then in the middle, all in minutes.

It is impossible to understand the electorate now.  Between Trump, the Senile Biden, Covid, the Economy, I don't think anyone has a true read on what will happen and what the outcome will be.

Please!  Sweet Meteor of Death!  Come take us now. There is no intelligent life on this rock.
PPulatie

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 11164
    • View Profile
"there is no intelligent life on this rock"
« Reply #974 on: October 14, 2020, 07:57:10 AM »
watch the trailer to this movie from 1950s when same thing was said then and probably since the dawn of homo sapiens:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_the_Earth_Stood_Still

 :-o

If Dems win than we should try to reach Klaatu to go ahead come back and destroy the Earth and get it over with

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaatu_(The_Day_the_Earth_Stood_Still)

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #975 on: October 14, 2020, 11:53:51 AM »
Can Klaatu come back sooner than later?
PPulatie

Crafty_Dog

  • Administrator
  • Power User
  • *****
  • Posts: 52351
    • View Profile

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #977 on: October 14, 2020, 06:54:02 PM »
quote author=ppulatie
Okay, the election polls are giving me whiplash. ...
---------------------------------
Yes, we know these polls aren't accurate and we know not to be in total denial when things aren't going our way.  I keep saying, facts on the ground favor Trump and Republicans:

The economy.  The economy.  The economy.  Enthusiasm.  Foreign policy / Peace accomplishments.  The Court.  Tough on China.  Optimism.  American Dream.  Law and order.  Resisting all the wacky stuff, "transforming the family", etc.  Protecting out Borders.  Winning over blacks, Hispanics.  Winning back manufacturing.  Individual liberties.  Right of self defense and to defend your home, your family.  Tax competitiveness.  Convertible with the top down.

Biden and Democrats:  Malaise.  Riots.  Planeloads of cash to Iran.  Multilateral agreements that cost trillions and gain nothing.  Higher taxes.  Slower growth.  Government healthcare.  Blackouts.  Destroy the cities.  Destroy the suburbs.
 Destroy the forms.  Ban fracking.  Ban fossil fuels.  Pessimism.  Shipping jobs overseas.  Dividing America.  Courts that are rigged.  Justice rigged.  Activists courts.  Crony government.  Deep state rule.  Corruption all the way up and down.  Open borders.  We pay for everyone who comes in.  Mass transit.  Marry the government.  Government run your life cradle to grave, "life of Julia".

Tough choice?

If you are fully sold on the Dem plan, Biden is your guy.  That doesn't get you to 50% of the vote, IMHO.  Trump and the R's have more to offer the rest.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2020, 06:55:45 PM by DougMacG »

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #978 on: October 15, 2020, 01:21:11 PM »
Have never seen such insanity in my life.  I look into the polls and make adjustments in the internals to the 2016 election and Trump should win in at least a repeat of 2016.

Then I look at outcome based upon unadjusted polling and Biden wins handily.

Find it hard to believe that

1.  America would vote into the Presidency an obvious demented and senile old man.

2.  America would abandon a "successful" first term President for a corrupt former VP.

3.  The pollsters are still using models that clearly were wrong in 2016, unless they are trying to promote a liberal agenda themselves.

This is just total insanity. It is like a collective mass hysteria event is occurring in front of our eyes.
PPulatie

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 11164
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #979 on: October 15, 2020, 02:14:14 PM »
".Find it hard to believe that

1.  America would vote into the Presidency an obvious demented and senile old man.

2.  America would abandon a "successful" first term President for a corrupt former VP.

3.  The pollsters are still using models that clearly were wrong in 2016, unless they are trying to promote a liberal agenda themselves.

This is just total insanity. It is like a collective mass hysteria event is occurring in front of our eyes"

You have just described Democrats and the band of never Trumpsters

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 11164
    • View Profile
Thank you Sheldon
« Reply #980 on: October 16, 2020, 06:27:15 AM »
at least a few Jews on our side!  country before self righteous dem party dogma!

like the Horowitzs and Levin

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/billionaire-casino-sheldon-adelson-super-pac/2020/10/15/id/992241/

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #981 on: October 16, 2020, 11:19:41 AM »
Appears that the pollsters are beginning to tighten up their polls to reflect more realistic numbers.  About time with two weeks to go.

Still have Trump at about 320 EV.  Pretty much 2016 all over again.
PPulatie

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 11164
    • View Profile
fix is in again - I don't need to watch the 3rd debate
« Reply #982 on: October 16, 2020, 01:35:08 PM »
The topics for the October 22 debate will include:

Fighting COVID-19 - we get it you assholes - trump could have done better - but left unsaid is joe would likely have been worse and sent us into a
   depression
American Families. - joe will pretend he wants to bring jobs back to America and he is for working families - stealing Trump's line which he is good.
   at (stealing lines since law school).
Race in America -  again the question to Trump are you racist?  joe to give his canned pitch to blacks (my voters will be rewarded)
Climate Change. - we get it Trump wants to destroy the Earth. and biden green new deal is not the Green New Deal ( some dem lawyer took out
   a few comas  a line or added more from  AOC's Sander's GND giving  Joe space to say the two are not the same and shake his head no while
    posting the shit eating grin Dems like to use when trying to mock the utter stupidity of the right)
National Security - we get it; Trump pisses off our allies and sucks up to Xi Putin and Kim  while Biden has friends all around the world who
    "trust" him
Leadership - biden will be leader for "all Americans". while trump just plays to his base.

see so I know how it will ALL be phrased , how it will be structured to play out ahead of time
   
Got it.    :-(
« Last Edit: October 16, 2020, 05:54:23 PM by ccp »

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #983 on: October 17, 2020, 11:36:17 AM »
Eric Bolling going to host a Town Hall for Donald Trump Wednesday.
PPulatie

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #984 on: October 17, 2020, 01:15:31 PM »
Have Trump with 276 locked in today
Biden with 218 locked in.
44 up for grabs
PPulatie

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #985 on: October 17, 2020, 04:51:28 PM »

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #986 on: October 17, 2020, 06:31:08 PM »
Okay, the tide has turned.

1. Polls are "suddenly" closing.  Pollsters are reporting better results, but still out of line.

2. Mail in ballots are so far not coming in for Battleground States like needed for the Dems. 52% of requested mail in ballots for Dems v 37% for Reps.  Dems need a 2-1 ratio here and are not getting it so far.

3. Michigan Senate seat has Rep James leading by 1

4. Florida a tie with Trump and Biden with polls showing a liberal bias.

5. Michigan +1 for Trump with Trafalgar. Hill/Harris shows Biden +11, totally biased for Biden. Trust Trafalgar.

6.  North Carolina Tied

7.  Hill/Harris has Biden by 5 in PA. Again very biased. Insider says Biden by 3. Trafalgar has Biden +2. Color this statistically tied, and without considering Shy Trump voter.

8.  Shy Trump voter plus people not admitting voting for Trump could be twice as big as last year.

9.  Add in a decidedly big margin of new registrations for Republicans, and this gets even bigger.

10. Trump rallies are pulling in 30% Democrats. And 20 something Indies.

11. Polls showing up to 13% of blacks supporting Trump.

12 Hispanic support up double digits.

Unless I am wrong, expect that this election is gonna blow wide open after next weekend and the Trump Train gonna roll big.


PPulatie

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #987 on: October 17, 2020, 08:26:08 PM »
Okay, the tide has turned.

1. Polls are "suddenly" closing.  Pollsters are reporting better results, but still out of line.

2. Mail in ballots are so far not coming in for Battleground States like needed for the Dems. 52% of requested mail in ballots for Dems v 37% for Reps.  Dems need a 2-1 ratio here and are not getting it so far.

3. Michigan Senate seat has Rep James leading by 1

4. Florida a tie with Trump and Biden with polls showing a liberal bias.

5. Michigan +1 for Trump with Trafalgar. Hill/Harris shows Biden +11, totally biased for Biden. Trust Trafalgar.

6.  North Carolina Tied

7.  Hill/Harris has Biden by 5 in PA. Again very biased. Insider says Biden by 3. Trafalgar has Biden +2. Color this statistically tied, and without considering Shy Trump voter.

8.  Shy Trump voter plus people not admitting voting for Trump could be twice as big as last year.

9.  Add in a decidedly big margin of new registrations for Republicans, and this gets even bigger.

10. Trump rallies are pulling in 30% Democrats. And 20 something Indies.

11. Polls showing up to 13% of blacks supporting Trump.

12 Hispanic support up double digits.

Unless I am wrong, expect that this election is gonna blow wide open after next weekend and the Trump Train gonna roll big.

The states you mention, all winnable by Trump.  I did my own small sampling today.  Those voting Dem are motivated by their wish to defeat Trump, not a love of Biden or anything very specific that is Democrat.  My pro business Democrat and left of centrist friends will vote Dem up and down the ballot - to defeat Trump and everything about him. 

I made the point that out our 'centrist' votes 100% with Nancy Pelosi.  No matter.   

Odd that my richest friends are the most Democratic.  In many circles, no one barely knows anyone on the other side.  In some places you have the house divided (my house?).

The anti-Trump has the same enthusiasm as the pro-Trump vote.  Somewhere narrowly in the middle there is the shy Trump voter and those who are tempted to breakaway.

I think these double digit gains in some groups are key, black males, Hispanics.  Second key will be those not liking Trump starting to not like Biden too, dropping the Dem turnout.  If you aren't sold on either side, why vote?

Then there are late breaking facts and stories. Record economic growth will be reported for Trump.  Smoking gun corruption for Biden.  A few more stories on both yet to break.

Fasten you seatbelt.  Does this long voting process make turnout go up or down?  Who does that favor?


G M

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 18342
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #988 on: October 17, 2020, 08:33:16 PM »
Your Dem friends aren't questioning the Dems after watching what Dem governance has done to Minnetroit?


Okay, the tide has turned.

1. Polls are "suddenly" closing.  Pollsters are reporting better results, but still out of line.

2. Mail in ballots are so far not coming in for Battleground States like needed for the Dems. 52% of requested mail in ballots for Dems v 37% for Reps.  Dems need a 2-1 ratio here and are not getting it so far.

3. Michigan Senate seat has Rep James leading by 1

4. Florida a tie with Trump and Biden with polls showing a liberal bias.

5. Michigan +1 for Trump with Trafalgar. Hill/Harris shows Biden +11, totally biased for Biden. Trust Trafalgar.

6.  North Carolina Tied

7.  Hill/Harris has Biden by 5 in PA. Again very biased. Insider says Biden by 3. Trafalgar has Biden +2. Color this statistically tied, and without considering Shy Trump voter.

8.  Shy Trump voter plus people not admitting voting for Trump could be twice as big as last year.

9.  Add in a decidedly big margin of new registrations for Republicans, and this gets even bigger.

10. Trump rallies are pulling in 30% Democrats. And 20 something Indies.

11. Polls showing up to 13% of blacks supporting Trump.

12 Hispanic support up double digits.

Unless I am wrong, expect that this election is gonna blow wide open after next weekend and the Trump Train gonna roll big.

The states you mention, all winnable by Trump.  I did my own small sampling today.  Those voting Dem are motivated by their wish to defeat Trump, not a love of Biden or anything very specific that is Democrat.  My pro business Democrat and left of centrist friends will vote Dem up and down the ballot - to defeat Trump and everything about him. 

I made the point that out our 'centrist' votes 100% with Nancy Pelosi.  No matter.   

Odd that my richest friends are the most Democratic.  In many circles, no one barely knows anyone on the other side.  In some places you have the house divided (my house?).

The anti-Trump has the same enthusiasm as the pro-Trump vote.  Somewhere narrowly in the middle there is the shy Trump voter and those who are tempted to breakaway.

I think these double digit gains in some groups are key, black males, Hispanics.  Second key will be those not liking Trump starting to not like Biden too, dropping the Dem turnout.  If you aren't sold on either side, why vote?

Then there are late breaking facts and stories. Record economic growth will be reported for Trump.  Smoking gun corruption for Biden.  A few more stories on both yet to break.

Fasten you seatbelt.  Does this long voting process make turnout go up or down?  Who does that favor?

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #989 on: October 18, 2020, 05:44:28 AM »
Your Dem friends aren't questioning the Dems after watching what Dem governance has done to Minnetroit?

Right.  Isn't that strange?  Smart people but no awareness they are wrong or the dangers of their policies and their leaders.

There is more skepticism developing in black urban vote, than in the rich suburban liberal vote.  They don't know it's a war or how close to it they are.  They just want Trump to go away in defeat.

I asked, so what's the big attraction to Biden, is it his foreign policy successes?  They laugh.  They know he's a lousy candidate of no substance, a placeholder, he just represents the generic anti-Trump choice.  It's all about Donald Trump - but it means nothing specific because they didn't vote R when it was Romney or McCain either and wouldn't vote Republican if it was Rubio or Pence. 

The election is about turnout and its about people, not in the middle or undecided, but in transition from one side to the other.

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
2020 Presidential election, Trump Accomplishment Amy Barrett polling well
« Reply #990 on: October 18, 2020, 07:00:56 AM »
Barrett is well liked. CNN/SSRS' poll earlier this month had her with a +10 point net positivity rating among registered voters.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/17/politics/amy-coney-barrett-analysis/index.html

How does that translate into the Presidential and Senate races when all R's vote yes and all Dems vote no?  Aren't Court nominations and confirmations among the largest responsibilities of these elected officials? 

Samuel Alito is 70, Clarence Thomas 72, Stephen Breyer 82.  Separate from Court packing issues, the next 4 years may have no new appointments and may have 3 (or more).

Who do people want to choose the non-political branch?  The party that promises outcome based choices, legislators in robes, or the party committed to picking Justices committed to upholding the constitution as written, as intended and as amended.

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #991 on: October 18, 2020, 08:12:20 AM »
First, Soutameyere has some major health issues. So that seat could open up as well if something happens.

Second, my Minnesota friend says that the MLPS Tribune is all in for Biden. And the Somali vote is huge and will go Biden.  Rural goes Trump.  Burbs could go Trump but the Wine Moms will tend to support Biden there.  Expect fraud to be high, giving Biden the win.

Still at 278 locked in for Trump.  Another 44 very possible.  15 others could fall into place as well.
And if a wave truly builds, could be up to 370.  Will not go much higher than 370 though.

Polls are more and more showing a tightening race. Trying to adjust models slowly to affect reality and not trying to "persuade" voters towards Biden.

If Trump gets 20 or more of the black vote, then it becomes a tsunami and the Dems could be wiped out down ticket.  Then the Civil War begins.
PPulatie

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #992 on: October 18, 2020, 08:28:24 AM »
Dem chair Tom Perez says this is a healthcare election.

Former R chair Reince Priebus says Trump will be pivoting to the economy.

Pivoting?  Why isn't he on it every word of every spoken sentence, if that's the message?

Both sides are off message. 

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 11164
    • View Profile
voting in NJ
« Reply #993 on: October 18, 2020, 10:34:29 AM »
very complicated

you can only vote in person if you are disabled

mail in ballots accepted if postmarked by No 3rd. meaning they could dribble in for x amount of time AFTER the election

we called because we were advised NOT to drop the ballots into these drop boxes set up around the county or mail them in

We asked where can we literally hand drop them off at the county election board but were told we can only do that on election day

the whole thing is changed around and geared for mail in balloting in NJ

we normally have a poll place two blocks from our house

that is not open this yr.

convenient excuse is corona
thanks to our second Goldman Sachs governor always, Democrats , who paternalistically look out for those who are not as smart or know what is best for us.


ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #994 on: October 18, 2020, 04:38:14 PM »
Early reports out of MN appear to be very good.  If MN goes Trump, then the tsunami may be real.
PPulatie

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
No problem, most households have an extra $6500 per year lying around to pay the government to squander, don't they?
-----------------------------
OPINION  REVIEW & OUTLOOK
The Cost of Bidenomics
A new study on Biden’s tax, health-care, energy and regulation proposals predicts $6,500 less in median household income by 2030.
By The Editorial Board
Oct. 18, 2020

Joe Biden has shrewdly kept the campaign focus on Covid-19 and President Trump, which has helped him avoid having to talk much about his own policies. That’s especially true of his economic proposals, which a new study out Sunday from the Hoover Institution shows will have a damaging impact on growth, job creation and household income.

Mr. Biden often cites Moody’s, the credit-rating service, for saying his economic plan will yield faster growth and more jobs. “Wall Street,” he likes to say when he mentions Moody’s, as if that’s a conservative stamp of approval, even as he claims Mr. Trump is a captive of Wall Street.

But everyone knows most economists at today’s big financial institutions have a Keynesian bias that posits consumer demand and government spending as the main drivers of growth. That’s certainly true at Moody’s, whose chief economist is Mark Zandi, who in our view underestimates the impact of higher tax rates and regulation in his economic calculations. This isn’t a personal criticism, but a factual statement about his economic model.

We are also not predicting a “depression,” as Mr. Trump does, if Mr. Biden wins the election. On dire economic predictions, Mr. Trump is the mirror image of Paul Krugman on the left. The data show that the U.S. economy is recovering from the pandemic shutdowns faster than most economists predicted. Democrats may attempt to portray the economy as a disaster that requires trillions of dollars in new spending, but Mr. Biden would inherit an economy with strong growth momentum.

The housing market is booming, small-business sentiment is bullish, and manufacturing is on the rebound. Once a Covid-19 vaccine is approved, and better therapies become more widely available, the economy should take off as even Democratic governors ease their lockdowns. The service economy will revive as Americans feel safer, and the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low as long as it can get away with it. Mr. Biden could do nothing and inherit a boom in 2021 and 2022.

The issue is whether Mr. Biden’s policies will nurture this strong recovery, or slow it down as Barack Obama’s policies did after the 2009 recession. This is where the Hoover study comes in, as it examines the Democrat’s proposals on health insurance, taxes, energy and regulation. The authors are economists Timothy Fitzgerald, Kevin Hassett, Cody Kallen and Casey Mulligan. Messrs. Hassett and Mulligan were members of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Trump White House, but then the boosters of Bidenomics are veterans of the Clinton-Obama Administrations.

Mr. Hassett has done pioneering work on the impact of corporate taxation and Mr. Mulligan of the University of Chicago on the impact of government subsidies that raise the marginal tax-rate barriers as workers try to climb the economic ladder. The 50-page Hoover study is valuable because it examines policies for their incentive and supply-side effects, rather than merely macroeconomic demand-side spending.

Overall, the authors estimate that the Biden agenda, if fully implemented, would reduce full-time equivalent employment per person by about 3%, the capital stock per person by some 15%, and real GDP per capita by more than 8%. Compared to Congressional Budget Office estimates for these variables in 2030, this means there would be 4.9 million fewer working Americans, $2.6 trillion less in GDP, and $6,500 less in median household income.

The analytical details are especially helpful on energy costs and the “labor wedge” against hiring that have received little attention. Mr. Biden denies he supports the Green New Deal, but his plans to promote electric vehicles and phase out fossil fuels go far beyond anything Mr. Obama proposed.

To take only one example, the electrification of most passenger cars would increase the per capita demand for electric power by 25% even as more than 70% of baseline electric power from fossil fuels would go offline. Bridging this supply-demand gulf would require enormous subsidies and far more investment and labor to achieve the same energy output. Mr. Biden’s energy plans would cut total factor productivity by 1%-2% across the entire economy.

Or consider Mr. Biden’s expansion of the Affordable Care Act and Medicare for those above age 60 (versus 65 now). These subsidies affect the incentive to work, and the authors estimate the ACA changes would increase the average marginal tax rate on labor by 2.4 percentage points. That’s nearly half as much as the six percentage points from the original ACA, which is part of the explanation for the agonizingly slow labor recovery in the Obama era.

Mr. Biden is also proposing substantial increases in business tax rates that will raise the cost of capital. The former Vice President likes to say he’d only raise the top corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%. But so-called pass-through entities (often small businesses) employ more than 40 million Americans, and most pay taxes at the individual tax rate.

“Biden’s plan to raise personal income and payroll tax rates would push their federal rates from below 40 percent to, often, above 50 percent, and these are on top of state income taxes,” the authors write.

Mr. Biden would also raise capital costs by phasing down bonus depreciation in the 2017 tax reform, and he’d raise labor costs by imposing the 12.4% Social Security payroll tax to income above $400,000. The $400,000 threshold isn’t indexed for inflation so it would apply to ever-more Americans as the years go by.

There is much more in the Hoover study, especially on the costs of returning to Obama-style regulation. Most of the media will ignore it, which is why we thought we’d provide readers with more than usual detail.

The risk from Joe Biden’s policies isn’t that they will send the economy reeling right away. The problem is that they will have a long-term corrosive impact by raising the cost of capital, reducing the incentive to work and invest, and reducing productivity across the economy. Americans will pay the price in a lower standard of living than they otherwise would—and that they deserve.

Copyright ©2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Subscribe at wsj.com.
« Last Edit: Today at 05:37:43 AM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 13121
    • View Profile
The giant hidden cost of Obamanomics, Bidenomics, Bernienomics, etc, (Harris is to the Left of Bernie) is lost economic growth. 

Without maximum or at least robust economic growth:
Minority unemployment never gets solved.
Unrest = violence in our cities AND SUBURBS.  Civil war.
We can't ever pay our debt or catch up with our budget.  BANKRUPTCY
China passes us up - economically and militarily.
The US Dollar becomes a local currency - at best.
Energy becomes unaffordable to more and more people.
Industry leaves the US, like the 4600 companies that left before corporate tax reform.
Healthcare unaffordability worsens exponentially.
Only the rich can have nice homes.  The rest will need subsidies.
While the neighborhood deteriorates, school choice is gone.
The only good news, abortion clinics everywhere!

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #997 on: Today at 09:05:54 AM »
Have moved Wisconsin into Trump locked in. 

286 EV now
40 up in air

One poll has Biden down to 50% in CA v Trump at 40%.  8% drop since the Hunter news came out. If this is accurate, then gonna get a wave and maybe tsunami election.
PPulatie

ccp

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 11164
    • View Profile
as Rush just pointed out on radio few minutes ago
« Reply #998 on: Today at 11:12:07 AM »
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/nbc-debate-moderator-spent-christmas-with-obamas-family-donated-thousands-to-democrats-including-biden

she was also caught on tape leaking debate questions to Hillary Rodham Corruption in 2016

the debate commission - pretending to be non partisan

are a f ing band of never trumpers

they should all get canned

from now the RNC has to not play ball with them

I hope Trump can dance around the fixed "moderation" in a way to shove it all back in their faces

I hope he is willing for once to listen to some pointers in this regards and NOT (correction) make it about his personality
    (.  :-o)
« Last Edit: Today at 02:18:56 PM by ccp »

ppulatie

  • Power User
  • ***
  • Posts: 1061
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 Presidential election
« Reply #999 on: Today at 02:16:38 PM »
 :-D

My 286 locked in EV's.  Plus the 40 that are up in the air with Trump likely to win.  326 total.

Now this.....

https://twitter.com/AirBossUT5/status/1317993183301627904

Damn I b good!
PPulatie