Dog Brothers Public Forum

https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/how-falling-costs-will-secure-solars-dominance-in-power

How falling costs will secure solar’s dominance in power

   - Umm, aren't there a couple of other problems with solar energy, like nightfall, overcast and winter.

These are the top MIT AI people.

https://news.mit.edu/2021/3-questions-thomas-malone-daniela-rus-how-work-will-change-ai-0121
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

3 Questions: Thomas Malone and Daniela Rus on how AI will change work
MIT Task Force on the Work of the Future releases research brief "Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work."
MIT Task Force on the Work of the Future
Publication Date:January 21, 2021
As part of the MIT Task Force on the Work of the Future’s series of research briefs, Professor Thomas Malone, Professor Daniela Rus, and Robert Laubacher collaborated on "Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work," a brief that provides a comprehensive overview of AI today and what lies at the AI frontier.

The authors delve into the question of how work will change with AI and provide policy prescriptions that speak to different parts of society. Thomas Malone is director of the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence and the Patrick J. McGovern Professor of Management in the MIT Sloan School of Management. Daniela Rus is director of the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, the Andrew and Erna Viterbi Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, and a member of the MIT Task Force on the Work of the Future. Robert Laubacher is associate director of the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence.

Here, Malone and Rus provide an overview of their research.

Q: You argue in your brief that despite major recent advances, artificial intelligence is nowhere close to matching the breadth and depth of perception, reasoning, communication, and creativity of people. Could you explain some of the limitations of AI?

Rus: Despite recent and significant strides in the AI field, and great promise for the future, today’s AI systems are still quite limited in their ability to reason, make decisions, interact reliably with people and the physical world. Some of today’s greatest successes are due to a machine learning method called deep learning. These systems are trained using vast amounts of data that needs to be manually labeled. Their performance is dependent on the quantity and quality of data used to train them. The larger the training set for the network, the better its performance, and, in turn, the better the product that relies on the machine learning engine. But training large models has high computation cost. Also, bad training data leads to bad performance: when the data has bias, the system response propagates the same bias.

Another limitation of current AI systems is robustness. Current state-of-the-art classifiers achieve impressive performance on benchmarks, but their predictions tend to be brittle. Specifically, inputs that were initially classified correctly can become misclassified once a carefully constructed but indiscernible perturbation is added to them. An important consequence of the lack of robustness is the lack of trust. One of the worrisome factors about the use of AI is the lack of guarantee that an input will be processed and classified correctly. The complex nature of training and using neural networks leads to systems that are difficult for people to understand. The systems are not able to provide explanations for how they reached decisions.

Q: What are the ways AI is complementing, or could complement, human work?

Malone: Today’s AI programs have only specialized intelligence; they’re only capable of doing certain specialized tasks. But humans have a kind of general intelligence that lets them do a much broader range of things.

That means some of the best ways for AI systems to complement human work is to do specialized tasks that computers can do better, faster, or more cheaply than people can. For example, AI systems can be helpful by doing tasks such as interpreting medical X-rays, evaluating the risk of fraud in a credit card charge, or generating unusual new product designs.

And humans can use their social skills, common sense, and other kinds of general intelligence to do things computers can’t do well. For instance, people can provide emotional support to patients diagnosed with cancer. They can decide when to believe customer explanations for unusual credit card transactions, and they can reject new product designs that customers would probably never want.

In other words, many of the most important uses of computers in the future won’t be replacing people; they’ll be working with people in human-computer groups — “superminds” — that can do things better than either people or computers alone could do.

The possibilities here go far beyond what people usually think of when they hear a phrase like “humans in the loop,” Instead of AI technologies just being tools to augment individual humans, we believe that many of their most important uses will occur in the context of groups of humans — often connected by the internet. So we should move from thinking about humans in the loop to computers in the group.

Q: What are some of your recommendations for education, business, and government regarding policies to help smooth the transition of AI technology adoption?

Rus: In our report, we highlight four types of actions that can reduce the pain associated with job transitions: education and training, matching jobs to job seekers, creating new jobs, and providing counseling and financial support to people as they transition from old to new jobs. Importantly, we will need partnership among a broad range of institutions to get this work done.

Malone: We expect that — as with all previous labor-saving technologies — AI will eventually lead to the creation of more new jobs than it eliminates. But we see many opportunities for different parts of society to help smooth this transition, especially for the individuals whose old jobs are disrupted and who cannot easily find new ones.

For example, we believe that businesses should focus on applying AI in ways that don’t just replace people but that create new jobs by providing novel kinds of products and services. We recommend that all schools include computer literacy and computational thinking in their curricula, and we believe that community colleges should offer more reskilling and online micro-degree programs, often including apprenticeships at local employers.

We think that current worker organizations (such as labor unions and professional associations) or new ones (perhaps called “guilds”) should expand their roles to provide benefits previously tied to formal employment (such as insurance and pensions, career development, social connections, a sense of identity, and income security).

And we believe that governments should increase their investments in education and reskilling programs to make the American workforce once again the best-educated in the world. And they should reshape the legal and regulatory framework that governs work to encourage creating more new jobs.

For the first time ever, fewer than half of all Americans have trust in traditional media, according to data from Edelman's annual trust barometer shared exclusively with Axios. Trust in social media has hit an all-time low of 27%. Fifty-six percent of Americans agree with the statement that "Journalists and reporters are purposely trying to mislead people by saying things they know are false or gross exaggerations." Fifty-eight percent think that "most news organizations are more concerned with supporting an ideology or political position than with informing the public." When Edelman re-polled Americans after the election, the figures had deteriorated even further, with 57% of Democrats trusting the media and only 18% of Republicans.
https://www.axios.com/media-trust-crisis-2bf0ec1c-00c0-4901-9069-e26b21c283a9.html
https://www.axios.com/trust-crisis-government-business-media-2e614f4b-0bc4-4f3b-97ea-5eac34ea09fc.html

 “On January 19th, two preprint research papers were published. One had good news: the Pfizer vaccine (and because it is highly similar, probably the Moderna one) was just as effective in blocking the B.1.1.7 variant as the virus that originated in Wuhan. The other paper contained findings that (the CDC) and others have been dreading: the South African variant, B.1.351, has shown that it can escape the antibodies in the blood of previously infected persons. This suggests that the therapies that use what are called monoclonal antibodies—such as what President Trump received—could fail. The authors of the study, led by Kurt Wibmer, at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, in Johannesburg, underscored the implications for the effectiveness of sars-CoV-2 vaccines, which are based on immune responses to the spike protein. “These data highlight the prospect of reinfection with antigenically distinct variants and may foreshadow reduced efficacy of current spike-based vaccines.” As Stéphane Bancel, the C.E.O. of Moderna, a maker of one of the covid-19 vaccines, said last week, “We are going to live with this virus, we think, forever.”
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/can-the-covid-19-vaccine-beat-the-proliferation-of-new-virus-mutations

Biden fist-bumps members of the media during inaugural parade
As a military procession and parade escorted President Joe Biden's motorcade to the White House for the first time as President, Biden and his family exited their vehicles to walk the final stretch.
Source: CNN

Celebrating a win with his teammates.

The game is softball.  Question asked by the media, Mr. President, are you going to unite the country?

Unspoken answer:  No.

At this point in the Trump Presidency, the media was calling for his impeachment.

https://lawliberty.org/app/uploads/2021/01/DG-Chart-2-1024x791.jpg

The price of gold is not that unpredictable.
---------------------------------------------

The 10-year TIPS yield explains about 80% of the change in the gold price during the past thirteen years (the r2  of regression of gold against the 10-year TIPS yield is 0.. That is no surprise, because the two assets have similar functions.  Gold is not a currency (because most governments do not make it legal tender), but it is a sort of shadow currency, a “primitive relic” (Keynes) to which countries must fall back if the value of fiat currency collapses. In effect, gold is an insurance policy against currency collapse. Inflation-indexed Treasuries perform a similar function; if the dollar collapses and inflation rises sharply, they will protect investors. They also offer protection in the case of extreme deflation (because their coupon rise when the Consumer Price Index rises, but does not fall if the Consumer Price Index turns negative).

The close relationship between real interest rates and gold makes clear that the risk to the monetary system has increased drastically as the deficit rose during the past decade and a half.  The decline in real interest rates thus reflects a higher price for hedges against extreme movements in the value of the national currency (as the price of inflation-indexed securities rises, the yield falls). We observe the same pattern in the long-term relationship between the US federal deficit (expressed as a percentage of nominal GDP) and gold. The greater our deficit, the more the world is willing to pay for insurance against the collapse of our currency.

[Former] Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wrote the book and it's free to read on his archived twitter feed.

Go back to Jan 1 and read 19 days or \trump administration accomplishments and history in Mike Pompeo's twitter feed:

https://twitter.com/SecPompeo

One LONG slide show of things no one else is going to tell you.
------------------------
Mike Pompeo should be the frontrunner in 2024.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/graham-calls-on-mcconnell-to-stand-up-and-fight-back-against-unconstitutional-impeachment

Graham Calls On McConnell To ‘Stand Up And Fight Back’ Against ‘Unconstitutional’ Impeachment

https://ipfs.io/ipfs/QmVzW5NfySnfTk7ucdEoWXshkNUXn3dseBA7ZVrQMBfZey

1776 Report calls for teaching objective history.

"Send it to your kids, your friends, your colleagues. We need to fight back against the left’s erasure of history. We worry they are just getting started."   - Steve Moore

https://mailchi.mp/823ca714c327/unleash-prosperity-hotline-853410?e=17d44a0477

'Our' Pat is setting up new shop at:

Cafe76.org

You need to wrap your head around the fact that there is NO winning national elections anymore.

For another view...   Winning hearts and minds still matters.  Putting forward better policies, better candidates, better messaging and better results still matters.  Margin of victory or loss matters.  Winning the middle when the left goes too far Left still matters.  Setting the record straight for both parties accomplishments matters.  Answering and calling out the bullsh*t of writings like this ape article still matters. 

Our elections including Legislature, House, Senate, President are mostly state (and local) contests - with national consequences.  Like community organizers Barack and Stacey, act locally.

Winning the Supreme Court seats of Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett did not help the vote fraud case but it does matter going forward, especially in comparison of with who would hold those seats if the Left chose them.

A 50-50 split with many factors against us is not the point where we quit.  Documenting Trump accomplishments before the pandemic is part of the fight.

The Korea Institute of Science and Technology announced that a collaborative research team led by Dr. Kwan Hyi Lee from the Biomaterials Research Center and Professor In Gab Jeong from Asan Medical Center have developed a technique for diagnosing prostate cancer from urine within only twenty minutes with almost 100% accuracy. The research team developed this technique by introducing a smart AI analysis method to an electrical-signal-based ultra-sensitive biosensor. As a noninvasive method, a diagnostic test utilizing urine is convenient for patients and does not need invasive biopsy, thereby diagnosing cancer without side effects.

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c06946

ccp:  "And China laughs...... "

Talk about an understatement!  This election determined their future more than anything that happens on the inside.  Who holds China accountable now?  India, Australia?  No.  They have specific conflicts and disagreements with China.  No one holds China accountable now.

The free world lost Hong Kong under Trump.  What will we lose under Biden?

War game models show China already defeating the US?  How do they score the conflict without the US?

"Biden says he wants to promote good-paying union jobs. And so, his first act in office is killing 20,000 good-paying union jobs connected to the Keystone pipeline. "

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/01/cup-of-joe.php

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/work-on-keystone-xl-pipeline-suspended-ahead-of-biden-action/

I wonder if Pres Biden will also exaggerate his inaugural crowd:



https://populist.press/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/trump9-956x1024.jpg

Does anybody remember when that was the biggest issue in Washington?  This man exaggerates!!

NPR said his speech yesterday was pre-recorded with visible edits.

I would like to think he is honest
but who knows any more

I think fraud was committed
but no one is able to prove it
and few are even letting anyone research it.

so worse case Bill Barr is lying
best case he is being snookered

another case
he doesn't have enough evidence so he is just saying from lawyers perspective - it is over
should he have demanded FBI to seize the machines
could he
I don't know
=============

Remember he thinks Epstein killed himself.

He acted with great courage earlier.  Less or none now.  We may never know what changed.  If there was not evidence of vote fraud, give us real information to back that up.  We might have avoided all the unrest and uncertainty now.

"he doesn't have enough evidence so he is just saying from lawyers perspective"

   - Yes, top staff is likely saying this and he doesn't have evidence to override their official advice.  To do so on behalf of Trump would be "political".  Same for McConnell and Liz Cheney staff.  If no investigation is ever done, they will never be proven wrong.

I was asked again yesterday why I [still] support Trump.  I never supported Trump.  I support most of these policies and results.  I oppose the race to undo them.

https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/01/19/text-read-the-complete-text-of-president-trumps-farewell-address/

Excerpt with accomplishments:

We passed the largest package of tax cuts and reforms in American history.  We slashed more job-killing regulations than any administration had ever done before.  We fixed our broken trade deals, withdrew from the horrible Trans-Pacific Partnership and the impossible Paris Climate Accord, renegotiated the one-sided South Korea deal, and we replaced NAFTA with the groundbreaking USMCA — that’s Mexico and Canada — a deal that’s worked out very, very well.

Also, and very importantly, we imposed historic and monumental tariffs on China; made a great new deal with China.  But before the ink was even dry, we and the whole world got hit with the China virus.  Our trade relationship was rapidly changing, billions and billions of dollars were pouring into the U.S., but the virus forced us to go in a different direction.

The whole world suffered, but America outperformed other countries economically because of our incredible economy and the economy that we built.  Without the foundations and footings, it wouldn’t have worked out this way.  We wouldn’t have some of the best numbers we’ve ever had.

We also unlocked our energy resources and became the world’s number-one producer of oil and natural gas by far.  Powered by these policies, we built the greatest economy in the history of the world.  We reignited America’s job creation and achieved record-low unemployment for African Americans, Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans, women — almost everyone.

Incomes soared, wages boomed, the American Dream was restored, and millions were lifted from poverty in just a few short years.  It was a miracle.  The stock market set one record after another, with 148 stock market highs during this short period of time, and boosted the retirements and pensions of hardworking citizens all across our nation.  401(k)s are at a level they’ve never been at before.  We’ve never seen numbers like we’ve seen, and that’s before the pandemic and after the pandemic.

We rebuilt the American manufacturing base, opened up thousands of new factories, and brought back the beautiful phrase: “Made in the USA.”

To make life better for working families, we doubled the child tax credit and signed the largest-ever expansion of funding for childcare and development.  We joined with the private sector to secure commitments to train more than 16 million American workers for the jobs of tomorrow.

When our nation was hit with the terrible pandemic, we produced not one, but two vaccines with record-breaking speed, and more will quickly follow.  They said it couldn’t be done but we did it.  They call it a “medical miracle,” and that’s what they’re calling it right now: a “medical miracle.”
We did in nine months.

We grieve for every life lost, and we pledge in their memory to wipe out this horrible pandemic once and for all.

When the virus took its brutal toll on the world’s economy, we launched the fastest economic recovery our country has ever seen.  We passed nearly $4 trillion in economic relief, saved or supported over 50 million jobs, and slashed the unemployment rate in half.  These are numbers that our country has never seen before.

We created choice and transparency in healthcare, stood up to big pharma in so many ways, but especially in our effort to get favored-nations clauses added, which will give us the lowest prescription drug prices anywhere in the world.

We passed VA Choice, VA Accountability, Right to Try, and landmark criminal justice reform.

We confirmed three new justices of the United States Supreme Court.  We appointed nearly 300 federal judges to interpret our Constitution as written.

For years, the American people pleaded with Washington to finally secure the nation’s borders.  I am pleased to say we answered that plea and achieved the most secure border in U.S. history.  We have given our brave border agents and heroic ICE officers the tools they need to do their jobs better than they have ever done before, and to enforce our laws and keep America safe.

We proudly leave the next administration with the strongest and most robust border security measures ever put into place.  This includes historic agreements with Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, along with more than 450 miles of powerful new wall.

We restored American strength at home and American leadership abroad.  The world respects us again.  Please don’t lose that respect.

We reclaimed our sovereignty by standing up for America at the United Nations and withdrawing from the one-sided global deals that never served our interests.  And NATO countries are now paying hundreds of billions of dollars more than when I arrived just a few years ago.  It was very unfair.  We were paying the cost for the world.  Now the world is helping us.

And perhaps most importantly of all, with nearly $3 trillion, we fully rebuilt the American military — all made in the USA.  We launched the first new branch of the United States Armed Forces in 75 years: the Space Force.  And last spring, I stood at Kennedy Space Center in Florida and watched as American astronauts returned to space on American rockets for the first time in many, many years.

We revitalized our alliances and rallied the nations of the world to stand up to China like never before.

We obliterated the ISIS caliphate and ended the wretched life of its founder and leader, al Baghdadi.  We stood up to the oppressive Iranian regime and killed the world’s top terrorist, Iranian butcher Qasem Soleimani.

We recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

As a result of our bold diplomacy and principled realism, we achieved a series of historic peace deals in the Middle East.  Nobody believed it could happen.  The Abraham Accords opened the doors to a future of peace and harmony, not violence and bloodshed.  It is the dawn of a new Middle East, and we are bringing our soldiers home.

I am especially proud to be the first President in decades who has started no new wars.

NPR Today:

"Even though the election was not close, 70% of Republicans believe the falsehood that the election was stolen."   - MORE-ah LIES-en reporting.

   - THIS is inciteful on so many levels.  If we are wrongly thinking the election was stolen, maybe it's because you people are acting like fascists covering up the stealing of an election.

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2021/01/17/schweizer-mitch-mcconnell-wife-elaine-chao-financially-tied-to-the-chinese-government/

Schweizer: Mitch McConnell, Wife Elaine Chao Financially Tied to the Chinese Government

[Of course the whole financial world is tied to the Chinese Government.]

Yes.  With her resignation from the cabinet with a minute left, his sabotage of the Georgia election, and his voiced support for impeachment, what role the wife had with the husband's decisions and vice versa.  Positioning for network jobs? But it turns out they are in bed together financially and that might be the driver.

I like to believe Republicans don't tolerate this kind of bs, act quickly to remove and distance it.  We'll see.

Hopefully they are on their way out anyway.

...
I still think election was stolen
...

I would like to know, one way or the other.  More importantly, I would like EVERYONE to know, one way or the other. 

There aren't two sets of facts on this question.

One lesson learned is that the real power with elections lies with the state legislatures, and with the people.  Where we had Republican State Legislatures, they failed to act to ensure a clean election.  Besides winning better representation there, the people who care need to penetrate these six or eight cities that hold the balance in the country, like James O'Keefe and Project Veritas do.  Get behind enemy lines, get inside the enemy camp, find out how they do it and blow their whistles.

If there was no significant fraud, the answer is simple.  Win 40,000 more votes in these states and precincts.

Obama rose up as a community organizer.  Stacey Abrams changed the balance of power in Georgia.  When she lost her race, she didn't quit her fight.  Conservatives and Republicans, OTOH, stay to themselves, retreat, maybe buy a gun, but then just bitch, moan, whine, complain and don't organize or act.  From G M's recently posted article, “Neutrality helps the oppressor".  In this moment, they are oppressors and we are the oppressed.  Know that when you don't act to stop them, you are helping them.

https://www.heritage.org/progressivism/commentary/three-nations-tried-socialism-and-rejected-it

Socialists are fond of saying that socialism has never been tried. But in truth, socialism has failed in every country in which it has been tried, from the Soviet Union beginning a century ago to three modern countries that tried but ultimately rejected socialism—Israel, India, and the United Kingdom.

While there were major political differences between the totalitarian rule of the Soviets and the democratic politics of Israel, India, and the U.K., all three of the latter countries adhered to socialist principles, nationalizing their major industries and placing economic decision-making in the hands of the government.
...
Israel, India, and the United Kingdom all adopted socialism as an economic model following World War II. The preamble to India’s constitution, for example, begins, “We, the People of India, having solemnly resolved to constitute India into a Sovereign Socialist Secular Democratic Republic . . .” The original settlers of Israel were East European Jews of the Left who sought and built a socialist society. As soon as the guns of World War II fell silent, Britain’s Labour Party nationalized every major industry and acceded to every socialist demand of the unions.

At first, socialism seemed to work in these vastly dissimilar countries. For the first two decades of its existence, Israel’s economy grew at an annual rate of more than 10 percent, leading many to term Israel an “economic miracle.” The average GDP growth rate of India from its founding in 1947 into the 1970s was 3.5 percent, placing India among the more prosperous developing nations. GDP growth in Great Britain averaged 3 percent from 1950 to 1965, along with a 40 percent rise in average real wages, enabling Britain to become one of the world’s more affluent countries.

But the government planners were unable to keep pace with increasing population and overseas competition. After decades of ever declining economic growth and ever rising unemployment, all three countries abandoned socialism and turned toward capitalism and the free market. The resulting prosperity in Israel, India, and the U.K. vindicated free-marketers who had predicted that socialism would inevitably fail to deliver the goods.

Judge Luttig lays out the case, you cannot conduct an impeachment conviction trial on a former President.

https://twitter.com/judgeluttig/status/1348669592420290561
.
A president cannot be impeached after he leaves office.  Therefore, were the House of Representatives to impeach the President before he leaves office, the Senate of the United States could not thereafter convict the former President and disqualify him from future public office.
·
The former President would no longer be incumbent in the Office of the President at the time of the Senate proceeding and would therefore no longer be subject to "impeachment conviction" by the Senate, under the Constitution's Impeachment Clauses.
·
This is to say that the Senate's power under the Constitution is only to convict (or not) an incumbent president.
·
The very concept of constitutional impeachment presupposes the impeachment, conviction, and removal from office of a president who is, at the time of his impeachment, incumbent in the Office of President from which he is removed by the impeachment.
·
The text, structure, and evident purposes of the Constitution's several Impeachment Clauses, all, confirm this understanding.
·
For example, Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution reads, "The President, Vice President and all civil officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."

G M:  It appears that they suddenly believe that walls do work, given all those that have gone up recently in D.C.

Yes. 

Mirror image of Trump accomplishment thread, we will need a topic for Biden vs. America, the actions he takes or accomplished that hurt the country.

1.  Gas prices are local and regional but I noticed they have gone up here 20% since election day just in anticipation of the damage he is planning to do.  All that while still in lockdown.  Traffic, travel and economic demand, seasonal demand, all down, prices at the pump up.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/audit-of-georgia-countys-15-000-absentee-ballot-signatures-turns-up-zero-fraud-01609368663?fbclid=IwAR1Dr_eaNjdSDjMoi-OZbXpowWEuKMVJW2qOQrXMoJBPpXevIiFYePuM_f0

Does this mean an end to this issue for GA?

That's a start. Let's hunt down and prosecute every incident of vote fraud after every election.  The investigation is the deterrent.