Dog Brothers Public Forum

My favorite posts happen when others express clearly and succinctly what I struggle to explain.

Brad Polumbo, Hat tip Alan Reynolds:

Let's discuss government intervention into the economy to promote equality. First, what do we mean by equality? Well, from your first note, I gather that you are concerned, at least to some extent, with equality of outcome. The type of economic inequality measured by the Gini Coefficient. For example; Sarah has twice the income of Paul.

I do not inherently care about equality of outcome, and I would argue that you should not either. Much more important are the processes by which the outcome is reached, equality of opportunity, and absolute/objective measures of poverty and material wealth.

I know you do not advocate for complete, perfect equality — few do — so please do not take this as a straw-manning of your position. But it's worth challenging the notion, which most of us intuitively assume, that more economic equality (separate this conceptually from legal equality, civil rights, etc.) is generally and inherently a good thing.

It is not. Very simply, we are not all equal in our ability, work ethic, and potential. We do not all deserve the same outcome, and if treated perfectly fairly and all given equal opportunity, we would not all reach equal outcomes.

Indeed, it is this very inequality of outcome that drives people to be better, work harder, and do more. It is the very engine of free-market capitalism that has created so much wealth and profoundly reduced absolute poverty both in the U.S. and globally.

So when examining economic inequality in the United States we cannot assume that simply because large-scale inequality exists, therefore this is a problem in need of government correction. Some of that inequality may, indeed, be a problem, if it was acquired through crony capitalism or rent seeking; i.e., Amazon getting a sweetheart tax deal or giant subsidies for professional sports stadiums.

But the rest? I don't think it's a problem at all.

First, you cite important statistics, and I certainly agree that one of if not the single most important objective for policymakers should be improving the standard of living for the worst-off among us. Where I break from you is twofold:

that inequality is a useful metric in this pursuit
that progressive policy solutions would actually achieve said improvements in living standards
Inequality tells us little, if anything, about the actual standard of living poor people face. For example, according to the Gini Coefficient (for readers, this is an international index of economic inequality) Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and India are more "equal" than the United States. Yet I'm sure you would agree with me that the poor in America are miles better off than in these countries by any reasonable assessment or metric.

My point is that poverty isn't best viewed as a relative metric. If you have a nice comfortable life and your neighbor's net worth doubles, you are not truly materially better or worse off.

So, yes, I want to increase educational outcomes, reduce child poverty, fix the housing crisis and more. From occupational licensing reform to school choice to zoning deregulation, I have many ideas for how to get there. But the "inequality" of it all is secondary, if at all relevant. (Other than, yet again, inequality via cronyism, which I share your opposition to. I would happily abolish the tariffs, subsidies, etc. that enable it).

I also think the moral indignation over the prevalence of billionaires misses the point. Yes, it is glaring that we have some individuals with so much wealth while others struggle. But it is economic fallacy to think that — except for aforementioned crony abuses — these billionaires took this wealth from other people.

Economics is not zero-sum in a capitalist society. Many billionaires and millionaires created wealth for themselves by creating wealth for others. Consider Apple CEO Steve Jobs, for example. He died with a net worth of $10 billion.

Surely it's obscene and unjust that anyone have that much money while others starve!

But if you think about it, through direct and indirect effects Steve Jobs must have created hundreds of thousands if not millions of jobs, and increased the standard of living for millions of people. If we had, say, as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has suggested, a top marginal income tax rate of 70% kicking in after a certain threshold in the millions, Jobs would have stood to gain almost nothing financially from the years of sweat and toil he put into Apple after his first few millions were made. And we'd all be worse off for it — even if we might be more "equal" in the Gini measurements.

Jobs isn't some isolated example. Economist Deirdre McCloskey has estimated the innovators, on average, see just roughly 2% of the wealth they create for society.

This brings me to perhaps my most important conclusion: The progressive "solutions" for income inequality often aren't solutions at all. 

Artificially inflating the minimum wage will end up decreasing workers net earnings (as hours are slashed) and causing unemployment. As you seem to concede, "rent control" laws backfire and limit the supply of housing, eventually leading to higher rents. Student loan subsidies meant to promote educational opportunity end up further inflating the cost of college and putting it out of reach for even more Americans. Tariffs meant to "protect" workers jobs kill more jobs than they create. The list goes on and on.

So, should the government intervene in the economy to reduce inequality? If what we truly hope to do is improve the standard of living for all, the answer is a resounding no.

   - Brad Polumbo
https://letter.wiki/conversation/853#letter_2702

https://fee.org/people/brad-polumbo/

Drum beat continue for Basement Joe Biden's biggest decision ever, who he thinks should be the next President of the United States after him.  Soon we will be told what a great choice this is.  But if he is so certain of that next week, why is he so undecided now.

Getting the hopes up of all these contenders and identity groups was a big mistake.  All but one go home the loser.

Since we know it HAS to be s black woman, we also know she (xe?) was chosen because she is a black woman - by the party that wants to abolish gender.

Reach to the middle Joe:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/08/04/condoleezza_rice_a_problem_of_the_left_is_they_think_they_know_what_black_people_should_think.html

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/aurora-police-detain-black-family-after-mistaking-their-vehicle-as-stolen

"I totally understand that anger, and don’t want to diminish that anger, but I will say it wasn’t a profiling incident. It was a hit that came through the system"

The problem IMHO is presumed guilty police tactics.  Police should, in my view, shoot the plate scanner or the radar gun AFTER they observe the vehicle do something wrong, not shoot every car just for being there.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/03/8-democrat-myths-william-barr-debunked-between-deliberate-interruptions/

8 Democrat Myths William Barr Debunked Between Deliberate Interruptions
------------

Barr's calm demeanor  of argument is something I could learn from in my own personal encounters with Leftward thinking:

"“I think your characterization of Portland (peaceful protests, etc.) is completely false,” Barr responded, and then laid out the facts..."

https://youtu.be/zT7CrEoqoSU

Tax only the rich and the burden falls 25% on the working class.  Not counting the burden of  lost opportunities and economic collapse.

"Don’t tax you. Don’t tax me. Tax the guy behind the tree."
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/04/04/tax-tree/

Joke being that it doesn't work.  You don't tax capital without hurting labor.  You don't tax employers without hurting employees.  You don't raise taxes on the economy, without hurting all its participants. 

A mere 1+% percent in the GDP growth rate changed the economy from stuck in stagnation to having the lowest BLACK unemployment rate on record.  How do you repeal all that and say "Black Lives Matter"?  Only with dishonesty.

Fact is, the already rich will still be rich with or without a new yacht, home or tesla.  The burden of excess taxation and excess government falls on all the people who want to succeed in the land of destroyed opportunities, stagnation, decline, collapse.
cf. Jimmy Carternomics, Hugo Chavezuela  Who did worse under these regimes?  Every working person for sure.

" If she fades/dies before the election/next term-- how long do we need to put someone through?"

was wondering same thing.
quick google:
*According to the Congressional Research Service, the average number of days from nomination to final Senate vote since 1975 is 67 days (2.2 months), while the median is 71 days (or 2.3 months). Some believe this is because Congress sees Justices as playing a more political role than in the past.*

It's been a month since the end of the Supreme Court term and no one resigned.  RBG has been hiding her cancer recurrence.  Her survival is the central focus of modern liberal medicine, and somehow they have succeeded.  Good for her.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/31/politics/ruth-bader-ginsburg-discharged/index.html

She isn't going to resign; no liberal is going to resign at this time.  Nor did Clarence Thomas leave to make room for someone younger.  They are off until early October.  [Nice gig.]

Only a death (very soon) would create a vacancy Republicans of this term could fill.  August is recess month, September and October are campaign months, not a time Senators want to stuck in Washington.

Whoever wants to choose the next Justice(s) is going to have to win one more election cycle, White House and Senate.

vote for Trump and the conservative national interest or vote against him and see the Rep. Party get crushed along with the future of the country:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/burn-the-republican-party-down-11596149482?mod=djemalertNEWS

Thanks ccp.  She doesn't write with the clarity she once had writing for Pres. Reagan.  By the end I wondered, what exactly is she saying, to whom?

Your post gets me thinking. What is the copper or commodity of demand and scarcity of the next 20-30 years.  Maybe it is copper.  Maybe lithium, rare earth element or seeds to grow super foods.

With copper, water piping is being replaced with other materials, but overall, worldwide demand keeps growing.  Price up 12% this year.  Lithium is down 40% this year.  Maybe that's not it:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

At $3 per pound, maybe copper isn't valuable enough to stockpile.  Helium doesn't seem easy to store.  Same for Uranium, plutonium.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-07-02/These-two-commodities-will-dominate-2020-and-they-re-not-gold-and-silver.html#:~:text=The%20high%20tech%20revolution%20and,ideal%20for%20the%20contrarian%20investor.

What is most useful when regular order collapses?  Food, housing, energy, security.  Water?  What is most easily stored for its value, dividable into workable amounts, hedged against obsolescence?

The search continues...

Doctor, when do you think Covid19 will be over?

Doctor:  I don't know.  I'n not much into politics.
-------------------------------------------------------
I just realized that "Don't Stand so Close to me" could be this year's theme song,
if it hadn't been recorded by The Police.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/the-week-in-pictures-barr-none-edition.php

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dark-side-cashless-society

I am researching cryptocurrencies and means to use them. Any advice?

Ammo, especially the most popular calibers will be "ballistic wampum".

Yes, beware the government banning cash and everything being even more trackable and controllable, not just for the reasons given but those are good examples.

I would add, beware of crytocurrencies.  There is so much we don't know.  Very interested in finding out what you learn.  I like the underlying technology of block chain but don't know, therefore don't trust the future value of the currency.  13k per coin currently(?) seems steep to get in.  I tried to learn about bitcoin as an alternative to currency, but if the value is controlled by speculation, it is not controlled at all.

Ammo, yes, if you find people with goods or money at exactly the time you need them, and if you have exactly what they need and are willing to part with what made you secure.  Food?  Yes but it either spoils or isn't very good in the first place?  In a real emergency where you would give it away to save someone, it has a different type of value than investment or store of value.  If you sell it or give it away when it is in severe scarcity, you have less left for your own security, financial and physical.  Gold?  Not performing better than stocks.  People would still have to have money or goods to buy it from you when money might be worthless and the goods they have aren't what you need.  Doesn't increment well.  Real estate was my idea.  People will pay a portion of their income for it no matter how much or how little a dollar is worth.  When you rent it, you receive payment and still own it (Can't do that with ammo).  Worthless of course when law and order and property rights break down.

To be continued...

https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/07/highly-recommended-reading.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2FtMBeq+%28Calafia+Beach+Pundit%29

Interesting stuff including troll comments.  I don't think comparing ourselves to Sweden or comparing Sweden to two neighbors is the key, but all the trends give us things to ponder.

What if we did the initial 14-15 day lockdown, really.  Wouldn't that isolate every known case?  far better yet, what if we did a real 14 day lockdown every time a facilities capacity crisis hit in each locality.  Interrupt the spread.  What if we did a lockdown of the vulnerable, voluntarily.  What if Trump's predecessor hadn't used up the masks or at least told his successor in transition to order those before it's too late.  What if the Chinese hadn't lied, if the WHO wasn't a criminal enterprise, if the FDA didn't work constantly against the best interests of the people?  What if we had tried to cure the common cold instead of going to the moon or whatever, and been better, earlier with virus treatments?  What if we at least had hand sanitizers plentiful, everywhere.  What if we hadn't exploded the deficit and devalued the country?
 What if we said that if you shut down revenues to the Treasury we will shut down disbursements?  What if we had listened to Sen Bill Frist 15 years ago??
https://americanmind.org/essays/a-storm-for-which-we-were-unprepared/

What are the death numbers if you take away state-run long term care facilities?

Shutting down the economy in places and times that were essentially at zero risk yielded essentially zero gain with enormous cost.



This is 2018.  What is it now?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/images/nvss/KeyStats2018_Table-002.png

United States - Historical Death Rate Data  Pre-Covid
Year     Death Rate     Growth Rate
2019     8.782     1.120%
2018     8.685     1.220%
2017     8.580     1.240%

'Experts say' death rate (overall) has grown under coronavirus more than is attributable to coronavirus.  But no one will say lockdowns kill?

Pres. Trump did not go to rep Lewis' service, I am told and told and told.  Then they used it as a political rally, as expected.

Will Obama, Biden attend Herman Cain's funeral?  Any Democrats other than personal friends of his?  Honor a black man who achieved it all in a meritocracy?  Ha!

His death is unnoticed and unmentioned in most circles - except to blame Trump for having a rally.

Hugh Hewitt surprised me this morning by saying Val Demings is the VP nominee he fears most.  Some think she comes across as a regular person, she was a police officer who came up to the drivers' window a thousand times.

I thought she came across as unnecessarily partisan and abrasive in the impeachment hearings.  She has had very little time in Washington, almost none in national politics..  I wonder if she will be stumped on issues or if she is fully ready for this moment.  She has been in the House only since 2017. 

If she can deliver Florida, then she is worth it to Biden.  I can't imagine what Trump's path looks like without Florida.  Orlando is the center of the state.What state would Kamala deliver?  California?  Susan Rice?  Washington DC?  Tammy Baldwin?  She's not even black!

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/twitter-iran-leader-tweets-defense

Twitter defends not blocking Iran leader's tweets after blocking Trump's
Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's tweets call for 'elimination' of Israel

The Tulsa rally was a mistake IMHO.

I liked Herman Cain and am sad at his apparently unnecessary passing.

https://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/979733?section=newsfront&keywords=herman-cain-obituary&year=2020&month=07&date=30&id=979733&oref=pjmedia.com

Very sad.  Great career. I wish he had been President.

https://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/979733?section=newsfront&keywords=herman-cain-obituary&year=2020&month=07&date=30&id=979733&oref=pjmedia.com

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/07/30/rip-herman-cain-passes-away-coronavirus-age-74/

A Hong Kong property tycoon wants to build a city in Ireland to host 50,000 emigrants from the semi-autonomous city. Ivan Ko, the founder of the Victoria Harbour Group (VHG), an international charter city investment company, hopes to find a 50 square kilometer site between Dublin and Belfast to create a new city, named Nextpolis, from scratch. Ko has pitched the plan, which would include schools that teach in Cantonese, to Irish officials, arguing it would fit the government’s stated desire to develop regions outside the capital. (via The Guardian)

Those are frightening numbers.  On the flip side with such a low benchmark, the percentages will look strong coming back.

This is not the virus.  This is a measure of our reaction to the virus.

Working on bumper stickers for the election season:

Federal Government Racist?
De-fund it.

More?

Cancel the constitution?
Fugetabout your right to abort.

When you're tired of the dishonesty of Donald Trump, turn to Susan Rice?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/27/susan-rice-top-biden-vice-president-383026

“There is a level and depth to her experience which would be a real asset.”
   - Valerie Jarrett on Rice.

That is, if she isn't indicted in the 'unmask' scandal.

"She’s one of the most effective bureaucratic operators I’ve ever seen in government.”

   - Said like it was a positive quality.

The book on a Biden-Rice partnership, how well do they learn from all their foreign policy errors?

"Populations of migratory river fish around the world have plunged by a “catastrophic” 76% since 1970, an analysis has found. The fall was even greater in Europe at 93%, and for some groups of fish, with sturgeon and eel populations both down by more than 90%. Species such as salmon, trout and giant catfish are vital not just to the rivers and lakes in which they breed or feed but to entire ecosystems. By swimming upstream, they transport nutrients from the oceans and provide food for many land animals, including bears, wolves and birds of prey. The migratory fish are also critical for the food security and livelihoods of millions of people around the world, while recreational fishing is worth billions of dollars a year. The causes of the decline are the hundreds of thousands of dams around the world, overfishing, the climate crisis and water pollution."
(via The Guardian today)

Of course the obligatory climate change, liberal source, but dams were listed first, hundreds of thousands of dams.   Water pollution has not been getting worse for 50 years.  We are back to dams and over-fishing. 

Not mentioned, some of the 'migratory' fish we want stopped, jumping Asian carp for example.

[Geoge Gilder]
"betting against the US and on China"   

Hard to say their technology is behind us anymore when they have all of ours - and are developing beyond that on their own.  The Huawei 5G stuff is an example of this.  The competitors seem to be Ericsson (Sweden) and Nokia? (Finland).  Qualcomm doesn't seem to making the infrastructure backbone of 5G. Or else they are late.

"Still bullish on Qualcomm"

Good!  They dominate with the chip in the smartphone (teleputer).  All of what he predicted on that came true.  Maybe Qualcomm is going to make the rest of the network, catch up with Huawei or go by them.  I hope so.

For a freedom nut with high moral religious beliefs, Gilder doesn't seem to caught up in the China-bad diagnosis that the rest of us see.  The old theory was that technology and prosperity would run past the control of the regime and enable the toppling.  Instead, new technology has made dissent or challenge to the regime impossible,strengthening the control of the regime.

Bias note: These Chinese tech companies are under control of the Chinese regime.  Gilder gains more access when he writes favorably or forgivingly of the regime,.  He loses his access if he speaks out against them.

I wrote a post on the Gilder forum 20 years ago, "The Great Fall of China", predicting what Gordon Chang predicts in "The Coming Collapse of China".  Wrong, so far.


"I forgot to mention GG also predicts China will become a Christian nation."

??  I can't even predict the US will become one.

Are you kidding?  (Cognitive dissonance of the Left)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-are-allowing-trump-to-frame-the-debate-on-china/ar-BB17cW4I?li=BBnbcA1

Just want to post the other side since we seem to have agreement here on the evil of the regime of China.  This piece notes thst evil but stresses "cooperation".

They are right on one point, Democrats are losing on this issue where Ttump was way out front on it.

https://english.rutgers.edu/news-events/department/5875-department-actions-in-solidarity-with-black-lives-matter.html

https://freebeacon.com/campus/rutgers-declares-grammar-racist/

do we know demographics of these white kids?

college?

female/male?

democrats?

geeks?

high school losers?

druggies?

You missed prematurely graying white ladies. Regarding the protests, it's all ages and all shades of mostly female white.  See the Macalastar college (St. Paul) rally where Elizabeth Warren 'broke out',. Scan the crowd:
https://www.twincities.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/jea-1426-Warren.jpg

The arsonists who hide in the shadows need to be studied like mass murderers, a related syndrome?  But first they need to be caught and held to account for what they've done.  Where were all the young people and all their cameras and all the street cameras when the fires were being lit?  Is there even an investigation?  Strange I've never heard the mayor or governor mention catching them as a priority or asking the public for help.  Maybe they are on the same team.